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Ophelia not budging

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:12 PM GMT on September 07, 2005

Long range radar out of Melbourne this afternoon showed a significant improvement in the organization of Ophelia, and the pressure fell modestly from 999 mb to 996 mb. However, the winds have are still at 50 mph, and Ophelia has not intensified quite as fast as the improved radar presentation would suggest. Upper-level winds over the south side of the system relaxed to the 5 - 10 knot range this morning, but have increased again to about 10 knots. These winds are causing shearing on the south side of Ophelia, and so there is little deep convection there. Ophelia is over warm 29 - 30C water, and no significant increase in the shear is forecast the next 36 hours. This should allow Ophelia to approach hurricane strength by tomorrow night or Friday morning.

I have no additional speculations on her future track. Steering currents are very weak, and there will certainly be plenty of time to speculate on her long-range track the next five days while she wanders within 100 miles of her current location. I don't think Ophelia's winds are strong enough yet to stir up enough cold water and cause weakening. Hurricanes need water of at least 26C to maintain their intensity, and water this warm exists down to a depth of 75 meters over the waters east of Cape Canaveral. Winds of tropical storm force are not strong enough to churn up water from deeper than 75 meters.


Figure 1. Depth in meters of where 26C water can be found.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

79 i could care less about her forcasts lol. shes a hottie and u can tell shes a wild one lol
Andrew (is it okay to call you that?), I don't think any of the guys are looking at Abrahms b/c of her forecasting abilities. *grins*
Leftty I think you are right and we will have to just wait and see what happens after the loop but here they still say next week sometimes around Tues nite and or wed...

K8tina hi glade we did not run you off lol and with all do respect I really don't want it here too but this one is a wait and see game...
yes lefty, she is also unafraid to approach a guy that she likes...So when stormchasing, dont be afraid to walk up and say whats up! She is the friendly type and will not blow you off like some celebrities
k8trina, yeah, you can call me that. yore right about Abrams. I have a little different perspective from being a classmate at FSU for a few years with her.
Well ya'll, guess it's goin nowhere right now, i'm out & off to bed. Well wait lefty~ that dream ya had, I've had those. a storm, only once when I was little. My parents announced the vaction in the camper to disney, I had already had this dream~ we were at disney in the camper & had to leave early cause a big storm was comin & i remembered my little sis gettin blown into the nabor's fence. So I protested this trip to no end. Got dragged to disney & well the rest was like the dream (hurricane David, I will never forget the eye at sunset). guess I dreamed of storms after frances but how could that be true, your not suppose to get hit 2x's in 3 weeks. Hope yours comes true, you can have this one. nite til tommarrow.
lol thanks 79. my wife may not like that lol
i feel ya skypony. wewill see
"i am trending more for a loop but its fart out in the forcast period"

::ahem:: I leave the room to walk the dogs and THIS is what happens??? ROFL!!!
sorry cg i was asked what my thoughts were. we will see
new vortex. notmuch change



749
URNT12 KNHC 080336
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/03:16:00Z
B. 28 deg 48 min N
079 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1393 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 205 deg 039 kt
G. 118 deg 036 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 18 C/ 1527 m
J. 20 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. BROKEN WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0416A OPHELIA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 01:37:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB


maybe a lsight sw wobble
Andrew, that's too funny about Abrahms! I'm with Leftyy420's wife and wouldn't be too thrilled with my hubby going up to Steph and saying what's on his mind! *G*

Okay, before I go off to bed, what is the consensus on Ophelia: is she stalled out for a while or does anyone think she might suddenly make up her mind on where to go overnight? (ie. is there anything to worry about overnight concerning Ophelia?)
LOL!!! Lefty, I was looking at the typo!!!
i would like to no when it is done doing it loop will it go in the gulf and be a cat 3 or a cat 4 the loop when it is done take it back to fl as a hurrican and then a little S this like the las hurrican did and when it is done doing what evere it has to in fl then it may go in the gulf so the gulf sould keep a i on it in tell the loop is done then they can tell where it is going then
cgables... I saw the typo too! *LOL* "fart out" TFF!!!
at this point that kind of wobble won't play into anything
lol cg i never saw it lol. thats funny


she will be whwere she is at when u get up lol.
"she will be where she is at when u get up"

Okay, I shoulda seen that one coming! *LOL*
k8trina, first of all, I do not want to start any problems with respect to other bloggers, especially with one's significant other.

Secone, since you looked at my blog, you know my forecast track, I posted it yesterday, and I will not change it unless a major change occurs..

Goodnight!
Lefty, I may be a Reecan, but my G'ma was an English teacher and boy did she drum stuff into my head!!!
lol i just meant she aint going anywhere lol
lol night 79
I do think that "The Big O" will be pretty much wherever for the next 24 hours which is what is frustrating those "in the know"...
lefty are you leaving? I was just saying night to k8trina.
Question - been meaning to ask

Where are the hurricane hunters flying out of now that Keesler got hit hard? If someone answered, I've had a wee brain fart and don;t remember...
"she will be where she is at when u get up" Hehee ;)
Not trying to be repetitive, remember my forecast track last night? Link What are your comments?
lolno i am notgoing anywhere. i thinkthey might be back now but probly out of houston i think
cgableshurrycanegal sometimes they take off out of McDill in Tampa
Right, McDill, that sounds familiar. Would also make for a shorter flight into Oph.

Am calling it a night - catch you all tomorrow, when we can probably all say same place, if not same time...
Andrew, I was just joking around about Abrahms. Sorry if it came out all wrong.

Cgables, I think I heard they are now flying out of some place in Georgia, like Dobbins (?) or something. (You'd think I'd know the AFB's with being a military dependent!) And I heard something about McDill, too. Just not sure.
79, dry air encroching from the South Georgia is playing havoc on the NW quadrant at present. Still some sheer in the S and SE quadrants. But albet, a very resillant storm so far and no forcasts with certainty.

This one is a wait and see IMO. It ain't the butt-kickin' that hurts, its waitin' for it.
i been looking at the underground the storm track dos show it starting a loop by mon
They could be flying out of the base near Valdosta, not sure of the name... Big air force base there.
G'night Cgables!! :-)

I'm out too... have a good night and you all try to stay out of *trouble* while us gals are gone! *grins*
so how much longer does it need to keep going due west before we start worrying...been 2 and a half hours now
LOL good nite K8tina and we see ya 2morrow
I dont want to be repetitive, but my track also shows the Westward drift that I have been expecting to occur all day.Link
Richandcoup, as Lefty mentioned, the storm will be pretty much in the same position when you wake up tomorrow. Sleep well and be advised local tomorrow.
hurricane79, a tad too far north but the rest seems to be verifiying better than the other models thus far
i got some new for you all yet me no what you think about it david

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 7


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 07, 2005



satellite imagery indicates that Ophelia remains somewhat sheared
this evening...with bursts of convection in the western quadrant.
The latest WSR-88D imagery from Melbourne shows a new burst about
25-30 N mi WNW of the center...and that the east side of the storm
appears somewhat dry. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter has
extrapolated central pressures of 994 and 995 mb...with maximum
flight-level winds at 850 mb of 54 kt. This is in good agreement
with the Doppler winds from Melbourne...and based on these the
initial intensity remains 45 kt.
The initial motion is stationary. Ophelia is south of a strong
low-level ridge...and between segments of the mid-level subtropical
ridge. This is producing a weak steering environment. The GFS...
UKMET...and Canadian models forecast the westerlies to sink
southward and steer Ophelia to the northeast and east...while the
ECMWF continues to call for a westward motion across the Florida
Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. The NOGAPS...GFDL...and GFDN
forecast slow and looping motion just off the northeast Florida and
Georgia coasts for the next 5 days. Given the model spread...the
forecast will continue to call for a slow motion...with the new
track similar to and just a little east of the previous track. The
track forecast remains low confidence.
The intensity forecast remains problematic. Some southeasterly
shear continues...and the SHIPS model forecast that moderate shear
will persist for much of the next 5 days. Indeed...if the storm
gets north of 30n the shear is likely to significantly increase. In
addition...water vapor shows mid/upper-level dry air impinging on
the storm from the northwest and southeast. The GFDL brings
Ophelia to 84 kt...while the SHIPS model is more conservative at 64
kt. The intensity forecast will be slightly above the SHIPS model
and bring Ophelia to hurricane strength in 48 hr. This is also a
low confidence forecast.

All interests in North Florida and southeastern Georgia should
monitor the progress of this developing cyclone. Should Ophelia
strengthen faster and move closer to the coast than currently
forecast...a Hurricane Watch may be necessary sometime on Thursday.

Forecaster Beven


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 08/0300z 28.9n 79.3w 45 kt
12hr VT 08/1200z 29.1n 79.5w 50 kt
24hr VT 09/0000z 29.4n 79.7w 55 kt
36hr VT 09/1200z 29.8n 79.8w 60 kt
48hr VT 10/0000z 30.3n 79.6w 65 kt
72hr VT 11/0000z 30.5n 79.0w 65 kt
96hr VT 12/0000z 30.5n 78.5w 70 kt
120hr VT 13/0000z 30.5n 78.5w 70 kt

her movement is due to her reorginising her cenetr. its visible on radar. she aint going any where anytime soon
scottcenfla-nice to see a fellow central floridian, it is nice that lefty says that but all it takes is another 3 or 4 hours of this drifting west to make for a REAL rainy situation here
Ya'll are looking at a westward wobble if anything. She has moved very little today.
What about the detached blob of convection Lefty? what do you make of that? That ridge is really sheering her NW side. What happens if the trough does not weaken the ridge? How long would she just sit there? I know this is not likely, but any thoughts?
True stormjunkie, mostly stationary today, still is.
the ridge is sinking south si she would be oushed west, that won't happen casue the trof will weaken the ridge, as well as the ruidge is weakining on its own. u guys are starting to get ansy. we have 48-72 hrs of this lol. every wobble and she wis moving
speaking of wabbles, i hadnt looked at radar in the past hour, but shes movin all over the place!
549. MJH
hurricane79, your track looks similiar to what accuweather shows.
Not antsy lefty, just been working all night. Getting ready to head home in a few. Have you seen the new Ukmet? If so what's it say and when do we get a new GFS? And it has been a while since I have seen a new Nogaps.
If you want to see a center of circulation reform 30 miles South, then look at this: Link No better explanation. The time between the transformation from North to South was about 15 minutes
79 it has been said 100 times. 1 to 2 hr radar loops are not good at picking up movement. Too much woble and reorg and whatnot.
SHES REORGINISING HER CENETR. THE EYE WE SAW EARLIER IS NO LINGER THERE. SO SJE WISS WOBBLING EVRY WHERE. SORRY BOUT THE CAPS
Richandcoup, I agree, it is unsettleing to have a "spinner" off our eastern shore. It may very well drift a bit west and east and north for that matter, most likely over the next couple of days.

This makes for a big rain event as of this evening for most of the eastern coast of Florida this evening. Model concensus is uncertain and no definate forcast is available at present. No steering currents is to blame for this. There just isn't a viable forcast at this point.
Just got back on. "Just scanning up the posts'" only...i see a more relaxed attitude. Going to be a non event right? Lefty...your thoughts?
SJ, the ukmet ant nogaps are every 12 hours. They refreshed near 1 PM today, so I would expect to see the new ones (00Z) at 1 AM
should get more models soon. 79 i don;t see a 30 mile reformation anywehere. she was northeast of the cape and still is
558. MJH
This storm may brush up close to Orlando tonight.
SJ , reminding the lurkers and others who do not see past 50 comments on this blog
not much tybee. we will have 48 hrs of tring to figure otu if she has moved any lol i alwasy say wait for the recons and advisory for the motion andlocation when it might be in question
Hey MJH can I have some of what ever you got? You may see some rain bands but that is it.
is the western part of this storm so strong because of the GS or the eastern side is just being sheared...western side looks like a hurricane and then nothing almost on the east
lefty, 30 miles wont change the position wrt the Cape. It was the biggest jump that I have seen after reviewing radar today... I may have been a little jumpy due to "possible movement"???? Sorry, but stationary storms drive me...and the world of Meteorologists nuts!
How exactly is a 00z run 1am? Why do the Z's not work on UTC?
565. MJH
Im just saying the storm may get within 50 miles of Orlando and bring some rain and wind.
StormJunkie, just like the GFS 00Z does not Publish until 12AM, the other models simply do not publish to the public until those times. Most likely the agencies making sure there is no enormous error before publishing the results...A smart move.
I do feel ya on that 79-wait and see sucks. I like lefty's new term "wishcasting" though.

Gonna head home and grab a duece duece on the way.
Z = Zulu same as UTC +4 in summer
i don'tknow if i can take 48-72 hrs of u guys lol. it hasn'ttmoved anywhere. she is still whwere she was 3 hrs ago. the system is growinf and the cenetr is reorginising. u may have just looked at radar 79 but its what i have been watchign all day. she aint going nowhere any time soon
50 miles of Orlando-The center?WTF? See ya in thirty.
sorry, Eeaster time +4
Thanks Lefty! I'll see you guys in the morn. SJ...the "bomb" looks VERY safe from what I can tell at this point. Night guys!!
79 think the gfs is showing a loop again. need to get the rest of it out. only thru day 6 right now
night tybee
i her that a hurrican watch may go up on thursday for fl
wishcasting. I heard that term for 5 years at school. Trust me, if I were wishcasting, you would know. I live on the West Coast of Florida. My instructors at FSU would give us the worst time regarding wishcasting. It is pointless to do. It makes you inaccurate.
Lefty, I tried to time it earlier. I will take a 5, come back, and by 12:55 we will see through 276 hours. Like earlier today, the GFDL should come out at 1:35 AM ET The UKMET came out around 2 PM, so should come out at 2 AM, and Nogaps should be at 1 even.
no lookslike the gfs stall her at day 6 than kicks her out to the atlantic.
There will be no big Oaks downed in Orlando tonight, lol. Still the center is 60-80NM offshore tonight, same as it was this morning.
Hi, I've been watching the blogs for a while and I'm amazed at all the good info that's been contributed. I have a question about stationary storms that start moving. If there is an Ophelia like stationary cyclone with winds of say 65 mph that starts moving say 10 mph, but barometric pressure remains stable, do you mow have a Cat 1 hurricane since some of the winds will now have a realtive velocity of 75 mph? That is at the points tangent to the forward direction you would have the 10 mph forward motion added to the 65 mph rotational motion. Or is hurricane strength measured just by rotational wind speed?
OK
no more of "lol"
too much
sorry, I keep reading and reading the same over and over.
use the K.I.S.S. priciple. No offense.
i belive they measure rotationalwinds cause they are flying thru her rather than being stationary on the ground so u might be right but remebr the winds are flight level and they estimate surface winds so who knows
Lefty, if Ophelia does make landfall in a week or so along the northeast FL or southeast GA coast, how strong do you think she would be? Would she be a major hurricane moving west under a ridge with light shear?
i thought lol was keeping it simple. but i am sorry and just ignore it. its part of my posts
In theory you are correct Hurriphoon. The forward speed not only adds "punch" to the storm, it can attribute storm surge as well, mostly in the NE quadrant of the "eye" at landfall.
its possible. we need to know what interaction the trof will have on her first and how far she moves east will play a role cause more time over water makes a stronger storm.
Is Ophelia spliting?? if not which I have never heard of in 38 years in Florida. If not what is the blob moving to the east on the east of Ophelia?

Ive been watching the radar out of Melborne and it looks as if the storms center of circulation is jogging a bit to the South West..
NO prob Lefty. Just a suggestion/comment
she has jogge all inds of way the past 24 hrs. she will continue to do this for another 48 hrs or so. i might have to get off casue i don't know if i can take 2 days of people jumping on every wobble she makles. they wobble lol thats what ur seeing specially when she is reorginising like we see. she issn't splitting. its a closed circulation and thats just and area of deep bands. it will probly diminish some with time and dissipate as she builds up her cdo
Lefty, same reason (wobbles) that I havent changed my forecast. But, I will be changing it shortly, around 1:30 not only from the new GFDL, but after I look at the Vapor loop for a while to determine the surrounding currents
I agree Lefty, in two days she hasn't done anything cept drift maybe north a few miles. This one is a wait and see, and nothing to note for many hours from now.
i feel ya 79. all i can say ids the next 48 hrs will be no fun lol.
Thanks for the responses, I've been studying the Melbourne Nexrad which has lot's of interesting info. I'm confused by the "Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity" which subtracts out the motion of the storm. This scale tops out at 50 knots. I suppose if you are in a stronger storm the upper scale readjusts or is the radar only capable of measring up to 50 knots. Another thing, the speed measured is the speed of the percipitation, not wind speed. So how fast do raindrops travel in a 100 knot storm?
79 gfs kicks her ne than starts a loop thur day 5, after that it kicks her ne again rapidly. i can only take 5 days as somewhat accurate cause u know what happens to models after day 5
595. MJH
what movement are you talking about lefty. She has been stationary almost all day.
lol i dunno. 79 can u answe the question on rain flaged winds. i think they are less than whats shown so if it shows 100kts its probly like 85 or 90 kts.
Current winds estimated in ground is 45 kt, same as per doppler readings from Melbourne. Not sure if they are using dropwindsondes for exact reading, maybe just the 55 kt from flight level.
yes mjh. she has been stationary all day with some wobbles here and there. what are u refering 2 cause i have been talking about models for a min
599. MJH
Sorry misunderstood. Conversation has been going in circles while this TS just stays still.
yeah i feel ya. she aint going any where till that trof moves thru in about 48 hrs maybe a lil sooner
hey lefty
where are you?
just curious. I would difinitely like to have you as a resource should a storm head this way...
if not Ophelia any other.
I have some clients that just can't survive another storm...
and others who will need to hire to make it after it.
602. MJH
I wonder when the weather channel will be brave enough to give a projected path.
i am in va
Hurriphoon, raindrops will never travel at the maximum windspeed of a particular thunderstorm, nor will hail or snow. A tropical cyclone is embedded with numerous thunderstorms, that in itself contain many different velocities of horizontal windspeeds, updrafts, and sheer.

Dopplar radar is capable of measuring windspeed, but in effect, the higher the scale, the less accurate the measurement. This holds true for radar distance as well when considering windspeed, rainfall, rainfall rate, etc.
Rain flagged winds are the horizontal movement of the rain, but measured from the radar or satellite point. In any case, with a system over 80 miles offshore, the rain echoes are read above the surface, near 8000 feet, and are an estimate at best due to the distance from the measurement. I would trust the Recon much more on that
HEY I think she is moving. I see a EWE movement? Yes?
not till the nhc gives a cone track not a circle lol i don't use twc much. there a joke in my opnion
608. MJH
To me it seems the weather channel is more of a broadcasting agency than a forecasting agency. And their forcast is about three hours behind. Good current weather but delayed forecasting.
lol hoping ur playing stormj.
normally with woddles, the eye wall moves along with the dry center air, in this case, the wall is moving SW. this movement could be temporary, but cannot be ignored. The NHC will record this movement.
is it possiable that this storm could talk a loop out to sea and go through the bahamas abd then hit flordia again
MJH, if you add a producer to the mix, it is always a broadcasting agency.
EWE? Yes Lefty. LMAO.
theboldman who knows. its possible.ur talking 7-9 days from now and its impossible to forcast that
oh ok well im not that good thought you guys might be able to help me with the tropics stuff you guys seem to know alot
79 thats not the eye. she had a well definwed eye with in that band of convection 2 hrs ago. it diispated as she started to reorginise and she wobbled sw. would not be suprised when she fors the eye back she wobes ne like she did earlier today
That ridge to the north really does seem to be sheering her banding ability to the N. I take it the ridge will weaken from the back side? State side/N and movement will not start until the trough breaks through the ridge?
As one whos does not chat often, what does LMAO mean?
if u look at the most recnet radar u can see the inner core reforming now as she spins back up.
Thanks Lefty

I will keep in touch. I hope you will too.

you can reach me via email at clifflovestonya@hotmail.com.

I am in Shalimar Fl (obviously) just N of Fort Walton Beach,Fl

Have good night as well as the rest of everyone on this blog...

CSH
EWE, hehee.
laugh my a** off
I wonder how much of the weakness in the eastern eye wall is real, and how much is from attenuation of the radar.
yeah lefty, after refreshing the loop, I see light showers filling in near the previous center.. I am just hopeful of ANY movement
is it strenghing then could become a weak cat1 right in a few days
good nioght man. will out ure-mail in a safe place
Laughing My A$$ Off. I did not know either till I got on here.
Well, she better start drifing on Thursday, I said it would hit near Flagler Beach Friday by 1PM at 50 MPH......doesnt matter, I will change that forecast in 30 minuted, if needed.
lol i know 79. it will be a ahrd 48 hrs but i got u man. i'll tyell u when she is moving


boldman, yes she is forcasted to be a cat 1 in 3 days
I use multiple accounts for different purposes. ie I use this as a general purpose account. Thank you though for the advise.

LOL

:)
Sniper fire in NO prevented phone lines coming back up. That is F'd up.
now that u have the inner core reforming u can see she really didn't wobble or move much inreality. its good those guys. its hard to see ehr just spinning there lol
Shows how quick I am . Thanks for the info.. LMAO
oh ok thanks leftyy420 just wanted to make shure its not going to be a major huricane
Lefty, she may be a cat 1 before 3 days, if she stays over water.
new vortex is out. slight sw jog just a ahir like a said no major shift. pressure down 1 mb again to 994


URNT12 KNHC 080513
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/05:01:10Z
B. 28 deg 40 min N
079 deg 34 min W
C. 850 mb 1379 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 316 deg 049 kt
G. 240 deg 022 nm
H. EXTRAP 994 mb
I. 18 C/ 1519 m
J. 20 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.12 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0416A OPHELIA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 61 KT NW QUAD 03:24Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE DISSIPATED. GOOD 35 NM DIAMETER OUTER BANDING
;
yeah i belive that to cane i was just stating what she is forcasted todo by the nhc


her max flight level winds are up as well. she might be 55mph now but we will see
Nighters all, enjoyed my first night amongst the bloggers. Tune in once again as "The Gulf Stream Spins". :)
lol night scott
man i hate the blackout. u know she going to come out of the black out looking so different
lefty, looks like winds are up to 55 MPH at the surface too
leftyy

look on the sat wv and tell me what you think?
yeah thats what i was saying 79


white wabbit what do u want me to see. we are in the black out so it is currently an hour and a half old
h79,
please look too!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

lefty, melbourne short range is up
leftyy true on the age..but what is that large amount of convection coming off the storm head nne
yeah i am veiwing the short range scott, was refering to the sat black out every night but thanks man
Why the hell do we loose the radar at this time every night also. Give me one at least. Is wunderground radar current?
*headed
its a shared outflow with nate. moisture streeminmg between the 2. nothing big
good evening storm. Wunderground radar is current.
I HATE SCHWARTZ AND HE IS GOING TO MAKE ME ACT LIKE JEFF14?JEFFMAN/8888889gg!
Thx sub. The range on wunderground is not much better than the shortrange is it?
hello all new to this blog so is this weather talk
lol something wrong with schwartz. just can'tfigure it out plus he always lookslike he spent to much time in the tanning booth lol
you mean dave schwartz on twc
heys funny i like the way he talks about weather funny guy
Whats up weathergy. Yes, but right now the weather is pretty much wait and see.

I think Scwartz may hit the nose candy.
wow 79, the gfdl just kicks her ne thur the forcast period but looks like she slows somaybe a loop starts after 126 hrs
lmao nose candy yeah i see that but that scranny white guy durring the day looks like ittoo
hey storm. not as far as I can tell. Looks like shortrange to me.
told u that gfdl would come into line with the gfs 79. no models take her west now. u really need to change ur forcast lol
never mind it kicks her back west sorry its late and i hate numerical models . but more inline with the rest of the models
SOOO the new GFDL has told us that Joe B and 79's paths need to be changed, but other than that it is up in the air!

Great I feel so much better now.
79 where u at man. comment on the gfdl man.
oh im doing fine how about you
GA/SC border Lefty? Is it the same GFDL that I see on the Wunderground now?
The wind wont be 55 mph at the next advisory, or any advisory. They increase winds by knots so 45 kts = 52 mph rounded to 50 and 50 kts = 58 mph rounded to 60.
well ther gfs trys toloop her at 5 days and the bamm is not good past 3 dasy and the other modelsloop so i think we are seeing aloop happening after her ne kick. the problem is where she loops will determin her landfall
yes stormj it is
We are real busy watcking O sit and spin weathergy. lol.
Well at least we are getting a little more confident on the loop. It's progress. THe problem is the loop is what 5 days out? The models history is not good at 5 days.
yeah but they estimate the winds based on flight level ops so a 61kt flight level wind is 51 kts or so at the surface they will just make it 55 mph. watch and see. been doing this way to long lol. i can write the advisory for you

ophelia lil stronger still stationary. some warnigns and watches next full advisory at 5am and next intermediate at 8am lol
He is changing his forcast. Bet he includes a loop Lefty.
When the blackout started the Ophelia satellite presentation still looked like crap, but the spoke of deep convection that was stuck on the northwest side of the center all day has finally succeeded in creeping around to the south and now southeast sides.

I have always found Dave Schwartz somewhat entertaining.
first not all modelsloop her at 5 days some sooner. also modlesnot good for track but general motion can be determined but yes anything out to 5 days is difficult to support, thats why i stated the gfs starts to llop her at day 4 and than by day6 kicks her rapidly to the ne. so i doubt she will do that but we will see.
I have another goofy question. The melbourne radar shows radial velocity of -22 knots (minus being toward the radar) and 50 knots away from the radar. The difference is 28 knots. Wouldn't that imply motion of the center of 14 knots? In other words you have a 36 knot radial motion and add 14 knots to get the 50 knot speed away from the radar. Subtract 14 to get the 22 knot speed toward the radar. This is assuming the storm is not changing shape. But it seems obvious the storm is not moving NE at 14 knots.
lol. ilove out forcasting 79 lol. just playing 79 u know i respect u dog
yes i agre hawkeye hes a nice and enternianing person to watch lol
He is just so oblivious to what goes on on the East coast Hawk.

Lefty, The ridge is what is keeping all of the rain off the SC coast? and keeping her convection to the north under control?
its not accurate man. so u have to use it as a guide it u will


stormj i think 79 was hopping that gfsl shifted back left lol
yeah that and the storm has been drawing itself in all day tighting up so she has gottone smaller if u will
At some point she will expand again and then contract again correct?
yeah as she grows in strength her radii will expand and she will draw thta back in again and over and over til she hits land or getts alot of shear or colder water. something like that stormj
I can't believe 79 really left?

You up for a game in about 5? O will still be there when we get back I promise. lmao.
i bet after the black out her presntation is much better. radar is looking much beter and she is starting to wrapp that moitsure around
Yeah some of that heavy rain is starting to wrap to the SE and S. Should make it around to the SW and W eventually.
naw man sorry. i can;t lol stop watchign her. i ma no good when a system, is sitting off the coast. lol maybe tomm
It's all good. Just trying to pass the time til she starts her move.
but to be honest i doiubt i will want to play tomm either lol. if she wasn't out there i'd be on in a heartbeat. i haven't played xbox in like 3 days. i have games i renetd and now are over due i haven't played because of this storm lol
Should be out of blackout on the floater in what about 30 minutes. Pictures taken now, but won't get on the floater for 30.
79 will be back. he is hardcore he won;t leave with out giving us a forcast and saying godd night
Yeah I hope your right. I assume your Xbox and pc are not within arms length of each other?
yueah i can't wait to see the new images.
I always get killed trying to refresh a radar or sat or model anywho.
no they are. i just have no urge to play lol. i have my office if u will et up so like in winter i can watch the aproaching snow storm and still play xbox cause i don;t watch them like i do canes. they don't change like canes do. also i love watching a developing storm and not to many times do you get to watch a storm develop on radar
yeah i feel ya. i restarted my comp4 times tonight already.i have way to many windows open
I'm not sweatin ya for not playin just wondering that's all. I am pretty tired and would suck at it anyway. Like I said just trying to pass time till she moves.
When do they run the Ukmet and Nogaps?
its cool, i think its more funny than anything lol. those models come out sometime soon. i think close to 5am maybe
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

55mph now like i said
Forecaster Stewarts 2am advisory is out showing strengthening 55mhh ... 994 mb
stormj ukmet out now.it shows a loopnow but a more southern one towards florida. waiting for nogaps should be out soon
gimme a minute
its cool 79. u know i aint going nowhere till 5am lol


radar is kicking up now yall. she is looking like a beast
AHH 79 returns.
with that convection in her banded wall so strong i would not be supprised if she is stronger than 55mph. she could be 60 mph but we will see
Ukmet more Northerly then southerly. Intresting. No landfall in the Ukmet forcast?
So looking at delta from the 11pm position is there a 5 mph sw motion over three hours or is this just "noise level" wobble? I guess we will know in the morning... maybe. Goodnight all!
she is spinning up her eye feture again and the inner wall loks string in the southern quadrant. wow. i bet the shear slackened off alot
What happened to the GFS did it go out to lunch or is it just ahead of the other models?
its a wobble ur seeing becaue of the eye reforming. the cenetr position has changed lilttle if any over the past 24 hrs
Melbourne radar just showed a 74 knot storm cell.
its not accurate past 5 days in my opinion but the gfs is not always a good model anyway, so we will see what happens. remeber u want a model concensus and most modes show some form of a loop and even the gfs loops past 5 days but u only see 5 days out. the loop she makes after 5 days kicks her ne out into the atlantic
yeah thats why i was refering to when i stated she might be 60+ mph now. she is really getting orginised quickly
lefty, local conditions here have picked (worsened) up since this afternoon, but I suppose that could just be the rain band swinging arround. I thought perhaps the storm was moving towards us and according to the NHC the center has. But you are probably right about it being wobble.
hello i mback all soo anthing new on this storm
yeah she has made slight jogs ne and sw all day. trust me io have been her all day lol. also she is getting betetr orginised and most of the storm strength was offshore and to her north and east. now she has wrapped all that around and u guys will see those conditionms u expect when u have a ts spinning offshore
Radar is also showing a hailstorm near the center. I suppose that means the cloud tops are higher and colder?
well pressure is 994mbs and winds up to 55mph but based on radar she could be 60 mph right now. maybe a lil stronger. we will see. she is getting that inner core going again
man its getting stronger fast wow do you think leftyy420 that it might even become a weak cat2 in a few days
yeah. u see hail in a styregtneing storm some times. also a sign of rapid satregthening so that copuld be a abd sign. she might make it to cat 1 status by morning
Some of you will hate my forecast due to its consistent landfall location. I have included a loop though! I have not included a cone of uncertainty, until the system moves West, mainly due to time from now until the forecast position.. Please keep in mind the cone of uncertainty by the weekend!!
wow never seen hail in a hurricane is it rare
aslong as she is over that gulf stream in light shear she will have a chance to gain alot of strength boldman. its possible she could reach major status by time shr finally makes landfall
Big apologies, Link
well ket me seelink please. also do u see the radar. reports of hail from radar.she is bombing out
It's cool (sort of) watching this thing spin up. It looks like the circulation is allmost closed off and radar is now showing a 70 and 71 knot storm cell.
In what 3 weeks lefty.JK.lol.
major really dosnt the closeness to land affect it a little bit leftyy
lol i dunno bout that one 79. i think ur south of most of the model guidance and thats one hell of a loop
not aslong as the cenetr is over the warm waters and she will not be there next to land in 3 days. just wait and see. she can become a monster
yeah it is hurriphoon did you see the new orleans radar with katrina right before it was blown ovr amazing
oh ok some of the modles earlie had it making aloop and coming back into the northern bahamas
I should have been more precise, the radar shows the marker for a hailstorm, but if you read the detail it says 70% probability of hail. But they are showing 41,000 foot cloud tops.
we should get one more vortex beofr 5am so that will be a interesting one
Better 79, but I still think you like to take things to Centra/N Florida. Strange as it is I am more in line witht he GFDL now. I just don't feel this one in Florida. Ga would be my best geuss.
Lefty, the WV loop will hel assist. I am sur you have been watching that. The water vapor shows an incredible amount of drier air as well as ENE winds, about to impose on Ophelia
Boldman, I didn't watch the radar closely, but I'm became hooked with the photos posted on Steve Gregory's blog. The storms look so beautiful in the high resolution sat photos. Until you realize the death, suffering, and destruction they cause.

Sorry if I got morbid
that vortex was the last one for that recon flight. next recon in storm at 330am aprox. so we should get a vortex befor the 500am update ot they will delay the update till they get the vortex message
41,000. That is high and cold. Lefty, you remember those browns we saw in your dust wave. At least I think it was the dust wave. Must of been 50 to 60,000. Man those were the days-when Stormtop was around. I never did like him too much. Thought he was too cocky, but now I miss em a little.
yes i agree hurriphoon they look so cool then you think about the deaths and then its like not cool to look at anymore
not worried bout ur intensity forcast its ur track lol
Yes, I agree somewhat SJ but, the models, including GFDL now models do not agree with my track, I do have one backup proof, but I will wait for the last necessary moment. God help me and my reputation if I am wrong.
New vortex message says 984 mb, but that must be a typo. The wind and temp data still suggest 994 mb and although the radar presentation continues to slowly improve I don't see how the pressure could have dropped 10 mb in one hour.
plus we saw with katrina 79 that dry air will not always hinder a system but the shear might hinder her for 24 hrs or so. we will see
Just in case ya'll did not know there are not usually many deaths with Hurricanes. No was the worst place for a storm to go and we have known that for years, and then on top of that the evac started way to late and the response in the atermath was slack. Not by the wroker bees, but the queens screwed up. Lots' of destruction with big storms, but usually under 30 deaths.
wow dodn;t know we would get another one from that recon plane

URNT12 KNHC 080619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/05:59:00Z
B. 30 deg 00 min N
065 deg 01 min W
C. 700 mb 2959 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 021 deg 059 kt
G. 299 deg 027 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 13 C/ 3049 m
J. 14 C/ 3045 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN W-N
M. C35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0115A NATE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 59 KT W QUAD 05:51:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 299 / 18NM
EYE OPEN 245-355 DEGREES
;

984 thats bombing out. thats why we had hail on the radar.

also the circulations are now all aatched. took longdser than i thought. this means she is in a no shear envirtoment and we will see a cane by the 11am update
Too many times have the secondary models been incorrect, I have watched the Water Vapor Loops, real time, and have compared the original models vs. the updated steering currents that can be seen (or not seen :) ) by the Vapor imagery
yea it will take the winds a little while to catch up with the pressure. diurnal period!
The recon is Nate that you copied in
also all the previuse recons prssure were xtrapulated and now they avtually got a reading from the surface since it is now attached. so she is really strong
StormJUnkie, I assume you are talking US deaths. Look what a tropical storm does to Haiti with the deforestation there.
it was damn i am tired. i didn;t think we would get another one till the 5am update. man yall stop messing me up. been on here way to long
79, good catch with regard to the Nate recon. I had no idea they had a plane way out there.
The recon plane is hopefully doing what is should be doing now.. The Recon should be testing upper air areas surrounding Ophelia to test the environment in order to correct the massive mistakes that the computer models are making./....
I know 79 but you are talking so far out that what you see on WV can be deceptive. What WV are you looking at anyway? I know the models will show some major shifts in the next 2 to 3 days, I just don't feel that shift that you have. Maybe a complete loop and then NNW to the outer banks. I just think that is too straight forward for what we have seen this year.
good looking 79. hawkeye messed meall up. i hope i make it to 5am lol
yep lefty you coppied Nates info.

Hunters do not do upper air data do they? The Gulf Stream IV's take upper air data correct?
If anything, that correction may allow some to reconsider my forecast track: Link
lol u think the models are making mistakes based on what. they all show a ne turn than a loop back. just diff places for the loop. explain to me what is so wrong.
correct stormj
yeah SJ, IV's do the upper air data, just being hopefull, or to say, nervously persistent that the Air Force will send out at least one aircraft to determine the steering currents.. Please, spend a few bucks and fly out there to ease our thoughts!
Melbourne nexrad shows probability of 1/2 inch hail in the cell near the eye at 90%
he was refering to the dry air and the shear to her north stormj. it won sink to far south till that trof gets alot closer than u will see the introduction of dry air and dust
No hail in tropical cyclones. Never seen it, never will happen. any others agree?
no u want the models to shift towartds ur forcast lol. also u hate to see a storm sit there and spin. thats ur motive lol. i follow the nmodels, they are in a little betetr concensus than befor but still a spread
The US deaths are much lower and most of the dates are pretty old pre 1960 on the top 30 list. These storms do hit the islands harder though, but most of the dates on the to 30 atlantic killers are also pretty old. I am saying that over the last 30 years knowledge has made them much less deadly normally. NO will be a huge exception to that do to our mis-mangement of Katrina.
katrina had hail. a stregteniong cyclone can have hail in the upper cloud tops. they usually don't make it to the surface
Why no hail? Isn't it just a matter of the percipitation getting high enough and cold enough?
look it up 79. it happens
Hurriphoon, The nexrad echo may show hail, but only if the air abive is cool enough will it occur.... In tropical cyclones, the middle levels are very marm. (Warm core system) No hail will occur..But lots of heavy rain!
We know it is not usually the most reliable model, but the BAM Medium, which has had a northeast to east track out to sea all day, just switched to a track that starts stationary then moves back west over central Florida into the eastern gulf. It's anyone's guess at this point what little ol' Ophelia will do.
As Lefty says "Wishcasting"

I also want to know what map you are using for WV 79? Floater/Carib?
Not trying to argue with anyone lefty.
not arguing 79, just pointing out while rare it happens.
That is three times in 24 hrs the BAMM has flipped 180 degrees. Won't count it yet.
Well if it is basically a good old thunderboomer type cloud going up to 41,000 feet I would think you could have hail form, but may not make it to the ground. But I admit my ignorance when it comes to cyclones.
Sure Stormjunkie, Please comment if you believe whether or not a system can move North 0f 30N in this scenario: Link
Truce Lefty, with exception to our forecast tracks for Ophelia
Not to be argumentative, but this is interesting:

ID Max
DBZ Top
(ft) VIL
(kg/m) Probability of
severe hail (%) Probability of
hail(%) Max Hail Size
(in) Speed
(knots) Direction
(from)
X3 57 42,000 48 10 100 1.00 1 E (88)

well, it didn't copy well but they are saying a 100% probablity of hail up to 1 inch and 10% probability of severe hail, whatever the hail that means.
You are using the NW Atlantic at least. I am not good at reading WV. That particular loop no I do not see anything making it N of 30. In three to five days-Who the hell knows. That was what I was trying to point out. I do not know how you can read a WV 3 to 5 days out. If we could do that our predictions would be outstanding. Forget the models.
not arguing 79 but the point is to always learn. heres a quick link on hurricanes and hail first paragraph in the link. will find u a beetr one

Link
Stormjunkie, a flip flop for the Bamm is better than being consistently incorrect. Well, I may eat my words on that, but in the past has made sense...Like I said earlier...stationary systems will drive a meteorologist crazy,,,
NO may not be the only exception. Response efforts aside, it appears the inability of people to flee played a big role. Even some people that fled NO could only make it as far as Biloxi due to traffic, gas, etc. which may have been a fatal event.

I see Miami facing a Katrina sized Cat 5 at high tide presenting a large problem. There are only two ways out of town and one skirts the coast, which might be trouble. Miami has a better exposure to a storm than LA/MS, it is better protected against a surge, it appears to be better prepared in general, but the buildup down there may be a big problem with high-rises right on the water. If a large storm developed quickly it could be a real disaster.
That last statement about the BAMM makes more sense then it should, But the BAMM is best at general motion not points per say. Particularly that far out with this much of a modle spread. Plus we can not have her go in to the Gulf!
Actually the Bamd reversed as well....to the SW
Yeah I agree Johnson. Miami would be bad, but then again a fast moving CAT 5 taking the shortest route to Atlanta would be bad. Big problem there is we do not how the tall buildings will handle the CAT winds and gusts.

Just trying to say that do not usually bring large numbers of deaths with their massive destruction powers.
i am tired of looking for more links. i get to many links that don;t have ot very visible and i asm not trying to read tons of webpage. katrina had hail they were talking about it with max amyfield on cnn when katrina was rapidly stregthening. every aspect of a thunderstorm is found ion a hurricane though rare, lightning, tornados and hail
You are going from banking on the GFDL to banking on the BAMM. Come on 79. Not that what you have COULDN'T happen, I just think she will be further N.
StormJunkie, It takes a while for a pattern to be seen by any user in a water vapor loop. From my education in the Meteorological program for several years, I have seen many patterns that would recommmend a South of 30 degrees North landfall....
we will see what she does.we are aguing over the track after 4-5 days. we know she will likley loop. thats the key. 79 ur track is too fact thats one thing i do know. but we will see
I can guarantee you we had thunderboomers and tornadoes in the hurricanes here in FL last year. fyi just saw a 76 knot storm cell.
Lefty can we get your input on our discussion about 79s track? See if I misstated anything.
i belivewit hailing in that cell. i am with you. katrina broke a window with hail in the rcon flight
Stormjunkie, please, my forecasts were made before the previous 2 models, ask Lefty from last night, and he will confirm. I am not trying to be Mr. Knowitall. I am trying to help those on the East Coast. I have not vaired on my forecast landfall for 24 hours. Compare that to any computer model
So what portion of the WV is the trough? Just tyring to learn here.
its to fast for one thing and the ne movement will be more than he has but she could loop back and hit there. i can not doscount that scenario. i think its just to far out to qworry about. we all agreee she will loop. lets see where she does it
Lefty, wow, are you saying it broke a window on the aircraft?
here it comes, give me a sec
the trof is located near the grat lakes last i checked. that red area on the wv is the ridge to her north. that ridg will be erroded as the trof slides sw.
I saw your track last night 79 FRI 5PM. I am just trying to figure out how to read a WV out 3 to 7 days.
cracked it. max mayfield was talking about it when he was on cnn like saturday or suday. that was the first time i ever heard of hail in a hurricane. its a sign of rapid stregthening is what he said
it was also noted on a recon vortex message. i ma not looking through all those acrhive messages right now to find it but at the bottom it clearly said hail in ne eye wall. that was when i knew she was going to be a monster
Here is the trough and ridge pattern link for the current scenario for Ophelia: Link
I wonder if the commerical pilots leaving Orlando in the mornings for Europe/Africa will be giving any good observations. Does anyone know how to pick those up?
Not discounting his point so much, just thinking it is wishcasting. My feelings are from about the Cape to the Cape (Canveral to Hatteras), but if there is a way to see the point on the WV then I would be intrested in knowing how.
I would love to look down on one sometime.
Please discount wishcasting, if a reference is made to Lefty or myself, or Abrams, or, well count in Cantore.. He wants it to hit where he is!!
The ridge is over the S. Carolina coastline? That is what is keeping her from goining anyhwere? The trough will push down and weaken/errode the ridge. This could lead to a past 30N movement. That is what I was saying. And we can not see that part in WV right now.
After living in Cape Canaveral area for over 25 years I can tell you that there is something about this area that pushes storms away. I don't know what it is but I don't think we have had a direct coastal approach hurricane hit here in many, many years. I speaking of the area from the cape north to Daytona, not south towards Melbourne. I think last year we may have had some 100 mph gusts in Cape Canaveral.
The current ridge and trough pattern, and their movement vectors: Link
Jax is way overdue also Hurriphoon and while your at it you might as well make that all the way from Cape C to Savannah, maybe Hilton Head.
Alright let me stare at the loop for a few now that I have that picture 79.
The ridge is not the dry air just to her N?
i am totired. 79 iwill find that recon reprt off hail in katrina when i get up tomm. i can abrely read them right now lol. trust me hails happens in a hurricane
Radar is showing a cell cloudtop height of 45,000 feet. That's getting up there! I wonder how high they can get? Also this hailstorm has been much longer lasting than anything I've seen before.
that is the ridge. the trof estands behind tht from the greatlakes.
Well, I dont know if I can interject at the moment for any other disagreements, but I am open for comments in a few if the radar or satellite proves otherwise.... Otherwise, the computer models are a mere guess isn this scenario.... This si fun as long as Ophelia is weak, unfortunately, the radar imagery tells me she will be at hurricane strength by this afternoon.
lefty, don't bother on my behalf, I'm convinced. Is anyone watching the radar, it looks like the "eye" is sort of "closing up"
storm let it go. thats his forcast and he included the concensus of a loop. we will see whether he is right or wrong but i think it s a plausible forcast scenario
its still orginising harpoon but we are now out of the blcak out and the cenetr is tucked in nicely underneath that deep convection, she will be a hurricane in the next 12 hrs
I'm just going by pattern recognition simply... None other... pure meteorological instincs from the satellite
also i know 79 is a msart guy as i am. if katrina didn't have hail i wouldn't know myself. its rarely ralked about just like lightning or better yet eyewall lightning
Lefty, we can still see the radar, and accoring to it, there is deep convection wrapping around the center
yeah i know but the cnetr has been 80 percent exposed for some time due to shear. was noted in the recon awhile ago. it is now tucked in nicely and if she still has hail when the recon gets there they willl note it in the vortex meassge
I don't see 5-7 days in the WV 79. Sorry.

Man things will really be boring in 10 to 20 years when they nail down those 96 to 144 hr forcast though. I think that is the reason the models run out so far. Trying to improve.
i am sorry i meant 20 percent exposed sorry tired as hell
It almost defies logic for me to think of a stationary hurricane. It just doesn't seem natural for something that powerful to literally be balanced on a knife edge that well.
Also, why do you (lefty and 79) think this will quickly become a hurricane? MY apologies in advane if you explained earlier.
It looks like the hail has stopped even though the cloudtops are at 47,000 ft.
well she is 55mph now.pressure would support stronger winds maybe as high as 65mph, she was not orginised enough to get those winds to the surface. now the shear has slackend off and the cenetr is really defined wrapped by nice deep comvection . she will start to develop a true eye wall in the next few hours. also her satelite presentation shows she is now more symetrical, showing her orginisation. so in a nut shell she is alot healthier looking now and would supprt winds of atleast 75mph
Never said it wasn't in the realm lefty and honestly I just wanted him to convince me he was right so maybe I could learn a little more about forcasting and steering currents.
Still waiting on Sat to load. Man I need to restart, can't, have to watch O. Hve too, Cant. Arggh.

Everyone give a shout out to Gilligan! That was good stuff. Him and the Skipper. and Ginger and the girls.
its allconjecture at this point storm. no one knows if she will loop and where. and that is key to landfall. he is a forcaster and doesn't like to deviate from his forcast much unless he sees something really convincing. same thing with the nhc. honestly you could make a loop anywhere from miami to va beach and u wight be correct lol. thats the nature of the track we are looking at right now
On the satelite image it allmost looks like a second strom next to (nothe east of) Ophelia which I thought for a while was Nate, but it's not. Anyone else seeing this?
yeah i heard he died that was sad. do u remeber a few years back when the actress who played mary ann got in trouble for sending gillugan some weed thru the mail. was some funny stuff
I understand that lefty, like I said I was mostly looking for insight in to how he drew his conclussions. Did not mean to sound hasrh, but was picking his brain.
It looks like the storm cell with hail is dying out but a new cell on the north side is starting up with 35,000 cloudtops.
its just some convection blowing up over there. it happens. not a seeprate storm just a part of ophelia. u should see tha convection get incorporated into the main cdo in time
Blackouts are almost as good as waking up after 4 to 5 hrs and checking the Sat. She looks real good right now.
its cool. i wanted ti get him on the hail topic. something he doesn't know not his fault, i didn;t know about it till katrina
If there is a lesson to be learned by the Hurricane Center is that you should not discount a computer model, even if it is stubborn (Like the GFDL earlier today) because, you never know when the storm will follow the computer model track (GFDL---> Katrina). Especially, if there is a possibility if a stall.
yeah she is realy healthy right now
Lefty, if you have not, which I think you have, you should check out the NW Atlantic WV. That connected cloud line with Nate looks really cool and you can see Maria swallowing a big gulp...of dry air.lol.
lol maybe i will
True 79 and you should also expect several large jumps in models over a 5 to 7 day period. My only forcasting is done from model consensus. and model jumps.
Yeah Sjunkie, there are a several reasons to like that WV loop
very nicew thanks stormj and the ridge and trof are really evedent. not so sure that trof will be as strong as the gfs makes it.
What I don't get is what that is erroding the ridge from the W.
wow do u guys see the bay of campeche. i thought development was suppose to be slow
Yeah, but I do not like jumps, unless all models do that at the same time like Katrina, when they all turned West at the same time. In this scenario, consistency is more helpful, combined with good old fashioned tropical weather forecasting.
I guess this storm is growing somewhat. It looks like the rainbands have extended all the way to Lakeland.

Do you guys ever sleep? I think I may be late for work again!
Thank you lefty, I wanted you to see a weaker trough.
the trof is. u see the mostiur with it in the great lakes but if u trail south of that u can see the trof interaction all the way to teaxas. the air in fron tof the trof is being pushed ahead of it and it is erroding the ridge.
Just saying and there is nothing scientific about this, but I don't trust the models-any of them-until they have made a couple of major jumps. Kinda like Katrina. First they picked up on the arc she would make-ie panhandle- and then they found their mark.
yeah harpoon. we will go tosleep after th 5am adv. thats my bed time lol


yeah 79 i was never discounting ur scnario. i just think that any point from va tomiami could be a possible scenario. i still feel southern ga though lol
i feel ya storm and thats the thing. the models will continue to shift specially since we are far from close to landfall. all 79 was doing was making a plausible scenrion based on the trof, the nirthern ridge and the ridge building behind nate. its a good forcast. may not be right but its a good forcast
Sure we sleep, in between comments.. LMAO
lol 79


remebr 79 i toild you along time ago. i repsct ur opinion as much as my own cause i know u know as much as i do, problky know more than me but i feel i am close behind
I agree Lefty. Just looking for that magic StormTop insight.lol. Hope he's alright.

Believe me 79 it is just as frustrating for all of us watching her sit and spin.
Man, the bay looks even more different then Kat did after the blackout.
A good transformation is happenig with the storm on radar now...
Has anyone looked at the Jacksonville long range radar? It looks like there is some very heavy convection cells about to wrap into the north side.
77 the models are not out tolunch. they show varying degress of trof strength and ridge errosion. even the gfdl has now ciome back into line somewhat. all the models show is that at some point she will make a loop. where is yet to be seen casue that is in days 4 and 5. theat far out is uncertain when it comes to models
yeah i saw that harpoon.


77 i must also not that the bamm is very un accurate past day 3 as it is a shallow model and would have no handle on her by than. just something u should know
man the bay of campehce was suppose to be slow development. that could be a depression in a few hours if it keeps up. man its getting busy in the tropics lol
Man I would love to be ont he Cape right now.

Lefty, The GFS does seem to be out to lunch a little right now. Or breakfast.

Good times. System offshore. Picking up a good head of steam. And no one knows where she will go.
well the problemwith the gfs is she forcast a stronger trof and builds the ridge back in ti slowly to loop her back. i am sure in time we will see ehr shift back like she was earlier.
if u look at the radar loop, u are seeing a cyclone going thru genesis. she will emerge in the couple hours as a more mature cyclobe and inn the cusp of hurricane strength. very nice radar
Yeah I know, that was mostly just a side note.

When do we get more models?

It seems like I ask that every 5.
not for sometime. like 730 in the mrnign or somthing. be the nest gfs ans gfdl comming out by than
Those will be intresting to see, although i would bet that what ever they say they will be mostly wrong. Too far out.

Like I said in 10 to 20yrs when those models nail down the 96 to 144 things will be borring.

On a sadder note, and I don't want to see this, but Katrina could move up to second on the most deadly atlantic storms. Let's pray she does not make 1st.
Those feeders really do take off in the afternoon 77.
well, its been a fun discussion SJ and lefty. I will learn some more when I wake up to see where Ophelia has gone
(if anywhere) She will be stronger, but the track will become more and more important over time. I must work Noon to 7PM, but will participate in the blog by 830 tomorrow night. Until then, good forecasting to you.
77 she is no closer to the shore than she has been all day. ur seeing the cenetr reorginise but she is no closer the the shore. next allmodesl regardless of track forcast a ne movement in 2 days. so thats the track. she will spin off the coast for 2 days and mock you man. trust me. she has not moved aby closer only grown in orginisation
all tight 79 cathc u tomm night
see ya on the flip side 77.
lol stormj, we gonna have 36 more hours of this. every one popping in and saying she is moving closer to the coast. i will just stop replying to them if it gets bad lol
Winds picked up a little here lefty and the pressure has fallen about .06+"H20 in three hours.
The nogaps does bring her closer to the coast, but that is a NW motion and the nogaps is kinda old too.lol.
but, lefty, according to the NHC the center was closer to the coast. I realize that is just a point in time and it is varying, but it 15 miles closer at 2am than it was at 11 pm.
yeah u feeling a squeeze between the high to ur north and cyclone to ur south
I would expect 15 to 30 mile wobbles either way for the next 24+hrs. Reorgs or whatever you want to call them.
Gradient? That is what I figured. Would sure like to have a few feeder bands today, but that dry air looks pretty strong right here.
it wasn't that much and some of the adv were estimates off by a smuch as 25 miles. 2 keys u must remeber.



stormj, zoom in on the floater. i see a eye starting to form in the ir. this happens when a storm reaches atleast 60 moh. she is going toi be a cane by 11am
77 if you think lefty is a little outspoken you would love stormtop. Do you know of the infamous StormTop?
77 thats my opinion and accuweather and twc still base their forcasts off fo the work and forcast of the nws and the nhc. they are not true forcasters they are broadcasters. thats why thye asre a joke. once again my opinion.
Yeah i noticed that even without the zoom. She does look good.
i thought i was on my screen. i went up to clean it and was lok oh. thats a light area in tyhe cdo, a eye is forming lol
TWC keeps showing a graphic with the spinning storm symbol half way between Cape C and Grand Bahama. That is a joke.
I've been watching the radar and the buoy data (one on each side of the center)and it seems to me that the storm is taking a little bit of a breather. It's interesting that the buoy barometric pressure is still going down even though the winds have subsided slightly.

Later all, I'm really going to leave this time, just one more look at that radar...
twc is a joke
That one more look will get you everytime Hurriphoon.lmao.

Goodnight.
darn I forgot, lefty, I'll bet a sixpack it's not a cane by 11 am (per the NHC).
good night hurriphoon
k ur on
Hot chicks though lefty, give credit where credit is do. And they are the ones that are stupid enough to stand out in the middle of these things with cameras so we get lots of cool shots of them almost getting decapetated by sheet metal or siding.lol
i must say my forcast i s alow confidence one lol
oh no doubt. i love them durring winter storms. they piss me off with their 2 min at best tropicalupdate. damit i want a full 6 mins lol
The will put that at the end of every discussion for O. Low confidence.lol.
lol thast why i out it on my cane at 11 am forcast lol
runner on TWC stated we could see 20 to 30mph winds through tonight due to tight pressure gradient. Man she really wants to go north and that ridge really does not want to let her.
Settle down 77.
77 i am sorry if u missunderstood my comments. but u came off kinda rude urself. all i stated was the facts and my opinion. i am also very tired and really right now i don;t care how i come off
winds at 60 at 5. May make 75 by 11.
Hey all, the 5 AM update is out.. Tired, going to bed!
winds uo to 60 mph now. she is forcasted to drift slowly niorthward and cild do small loops while drifting north over the next 24 hrs. they only profect slow stregthening durring the next 24 hrs so maybe i will be off on the cane at 11am forcast
Sorry 79 I said goodnight to 77 earlier and I meant 79.

Goodnight again-unless you just have to peek at the radar or sat again before falling asleep.
night 79. i am still waiting for my discussion and forcast tracks befor i head to bed
Lefty, you know the outcome of this. bla bla bla low confidence.
i know man lol
Nate really seems to be moving very little, maybe even a little SSE? what gives?
same story as qohalia. that trof will helpto kick hime ne. thats the story lol trof to the ne
You know I think the problem with TWC is that they are mostly tranlaters. Put the weather in laymans terms. That's it. The lady just on stated in the tropical update that O still looked pretty ragged? I mean come on. They need to give these people a little freedom. At least the ones feeding the teleprompter the info they read.
lol. she is alil raged on radar but her sat presentation has improced greatly. we will see what tomm brings. feel it will be alot of wobblews and people from florida. i might just lurk a little lol
and 77 i already appologised for missunderstanding what u was saying. what do u want from me man
wow did u read the diascussion strom j. pressure might be 987 and the stimr maybe stronger than 60mph. they also feel a loop will happen but the question is how far east will she go. lol what i ahve been saying all day
Intresting. N Florida to S. Georgia. Wait and see.
stormj they also say winds could be 65 moh at the surface. wow i was right on on that. u still there man
Yep lefty. Might have that 6 pack. Now I will be intrested to see how the models shift today. N or south for the land fall.
she might be a cane at 1100am after all
lol thast the kind of disscusion i like. off to bed now man catch u tomm

night 77 don;t take it personaly
Any geusses as to how the models will shift on land fall? I say N GA to S S Caro. Just my geuss. What's your gut say?
Hold on Lefty. Did you see a jog to the ene in the last radar image? If so that could lead to stregthen as she could get a little further off the coast.
sticking with my ga landfall. need sleeplol. tomm going to be a frustrating day lol night man
77 i am not saying tiwontmove in 3 days. the nhc was saying it. read the info oin their site
Yep I am out too. See ya soon.
she will not move much for the next 3-5 days . sorry i can;t type and i appologised. i also stated that accuweather and twc are boradcasters not forcasters. and it looks like accuweather and joe.b got this one wrong
but 77 cry me a river casue i could care less if u stop posting here. goodnight
lefty...looks like the gfdl wasn't so crazy after all...I hope this thing goes out to sea....

new ophelia models
lefty...looks like the gfdl wasn't so crazy after all...hope it goes out to sea....
Link
sorry about double post...
Good Morning Florida!

As no one has a clue what Tropical Storm Ophelia is going to do we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst!

Do Not make an plans based on amature posts on this website.

Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available. This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves.

Stay safe & enjoy the weather soaps!
looking real good on the radar loop now

Link
The storms size of convection is a bit small for the moment but that is because of some dry air to the southwest has gotten in the storm a little bit,but a fairly large eye seems to be forming,but as you can see the storm is fairly large but dry air from the southwest is limiting convective coverage at the moment.That was the case with jeanne at first,most of the covection was limited to near the center at first becuase dry air,but when the dry air works out the storms convection covergae will likely expand alot,filling out the circulation.
Batten down over there in eastern Florida!
Those of us in the panhandle are hoping you get a break from all the rain and Ophelia leaves you alone! (paticularly since we don't want to see it coming across at us, LOL.) Gotta go to work!
The lates NHC forecast disscusion seems to be hinting now at more of a loop rather than a track out to sea.It has been drifting slightly to the south and southwest at at around 2 and 3mph since around midnight.
If it moves into the gulf,I pray that it will quickly move north into the eastern panhandle.
947. IKE
The clouds west of the Yucatan Peninsula look better than Ophelia looks right now. Slow development possible with it. Probably heads into Mexico/lower Texas.
go for it, Girl!

(then we'll all just humm WMama's Kokomo......to get back on track)
sorry
ME...you blog-hopping lurker! (New term! hmmmmmm)

Morning all.
That is because of a bit of dry air,convection is limited to near the center and to the northeast.
Good morning Shera and all
Good morning all! Sitting here in Tampa and watching Ophelia do absolutely NOTHING! I wish she would make a move in one direction or another. I see the new model runs still resemble a lie detector test gone wacky.
The waiting is the worst. And the never ending rain and wind.
I an NOT likinh hurricane79's projection. Link

It puts a bull's eye on my roof!
I FOUND STORMTOP!!!

Link

No, I know it's not him but I think it was kinda cool.

- C
good morning everyone....well, here we are, and there sits Ophelia....still. I'm near Cocoa Beach, and I can tell that she has gotten stronger as we have stronger winds today and the low level clouds have increased considerably.
Definately weatherdude..I am here in St. Augustine and what a diference when i woke up this morning..Our gust here have been between 30 and 35 mph consistently now, unlike yesterday..Not too bad..but definately different then yesterday..But still its a dry storm..not much rain..Satelite looks terrible..Some of that dry air got mixed into the storm, but if it can mix it out we may see alot of rain today. It is still slowly getting stronger, so who know..we will see today.
weatherguy, we've had rain off and on during the night and morning. I saw that dry air, and it still looks like there is some shear from the south
We're running out of goats to sacrifice here in Jax. Looks like we'll have enough to keep the storms away another year. :D
Yep the thing that concerns me alittle is if it moves away from the coast a bit and sits and loops..Conditions might become alittle more favorable and then it comes back to the coast..Who knows we will be talking about this for awhile..lol..But unfortunatley they were just about done putting back our beach here and now it is getting eroded again..big chunks already going away..that is what is going to be bad here.
We've got bad erosion here as well. I'm affraid that this thing will strengthen, loop back around, and come back at us. I think she is going to do what jeanne did last year. Even here we had winds of 80+mph with her.
The good thing so far it is a rather small system..but that could change down the road..well time for work..goodluck to you weatherdude..have a good day.
ah, she is closer to me...crazy, the 11AM and 8PM had her at the same coordinates yesterday...she is meandering off the coast, they believe we will start to feel some good winds this PM.
I don't think anyone helped in the efforts to blow her east last night...lol
Dr. Masters has posted a new discussion
Yesterday you said the GFS was the superior model. Today you note how bad it was with Jeanne last year. The GFS is the worst performing model. Take Katrina for example. GFS didn't even have Katrina on the map 3 days before developing, even as it's energy was there and moving NW towards Bahamas. GFS also had forecast of Katrina going up East Coast for over 72 hours on it's runs. So your comment yesterday about GFS model being superior was just a plain stupid comment. You should do some case studies on how bad the GFS performs. I can supply you with case after case where the GFS is always wrong because it cannot deal with heat and feedback situations.