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Ophelia lumbering towards the coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:55 PM GMT on September 13, 2005

Ophelia is lumbering towards the coast at a snail's pace of 4mph, and remains over warm enough water (82-83F) to keep a slow strengthening trend going. Long range radar out of Wilmington, NC shows an modest increase in intensity and coverage of the rainfall, but the inner eyewall of about 20 miles diameter that was trying to form this morning has collapsed. Now that Ophelia is moving, the upwelling of cold water stirred up by her winds is not going to be an inhibiting factor. However, the water temperatures within about 80 miles of the coast cool off to about 78 - 80F, and this should put a halt to Ophelia's slow intensification once she gets close to the coast on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Although NHC has been advertising Ophelia as having peak winds of 70 mph, the actual peak winds measured at the surface by buoys is 50 mph. Apparently the stronger winds at higher altitudes measured by the Hurricane Hunters and by Doppler radar are not mixing down to the surface as efficiently as usual for a hurricane. The NOAA aircraft's SFMR instrument has measured surface winds of 55 kt (63 mph), but this estimate is not supported by buoy measurements, and the SFMR winds are probably too high by 5 knots.

Shear is low (5 knots) and the upper-level outflow good, but there is still too much dry air and cool water surrounding Ophelia to support anything stronger than a 80 mph Category 1 hurricane. The chances of a coastal observation site actually recording sustained winds of hurricane force (74 mph) are probably about 20%. Wind damage from Ophelia should be low, but her winds have had a lot of time to pile up a big mound of water near her center, and the storm surge of 4 - 6 feet will cause most of this storm's damage.



Flooding of low-lying areas from rain could be a problem in some places; areas just south of Wilmington, NC have already received 4 - 5 inches or rain. Another 5 - 10 inches of rain is likely from this wet, slow-moving storm. If eastern North Carolina were not under mild drought conditions, this would have been a much more serious storm.


Figure 1. Surface wind estimates this afternoon from the NOAA aircraft's SFMR instrument show a large area of tropical storm force winds, primarily on the west side.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

yeah verticle but there are some heavy bands to come on shore eyt and she is moving slow and u will get a training situation so time will tell lol


thanks for the update
Lefty, in case you missed my post on the other blog:

Still here! Wx is non-eventful! Steady light to moderate rain. Breezy with the ocassional gusts up to the mid 30's.

Somehow, I doubt we're going to get 15 inches of rain. I think we will be hard pressed to see 10.
are there any observations from the area where the feeder bands are impacting?
hey vhe, did u see my blog?
LOL...you keep telling me the bands are coming!!!!

I see them as well but they really don't amount to a whole lot. Not even satelite disruption - it's even getting brighter out right now!

Yet as I write this, we just had a pretty decent gust with some horizontal rain. I'd like to see a lot more of that sustained!!!
yeah verticle and mytleb are in myrtle beach
lowpressure is near topsail isalnd i think close to jacksonvill

Turtle, no, why??
lol ur actually about to be in a break between the bands and another strong band will be comming in. some of that wind might not be mixxing down to the surface like dr.masterrs says but i think in an hr when that next strng band comes in u will see some sustauned strong winds lol
its updated, thats about it-lol
OK, I'm gonna hold u to it!!!! lol
lol u betetr tellme when it gets bad lol
OK turtle....saw it...cool! You really think Myrtle Beach will see hurricane conditions??? I know the winds are fairly spread out but as always, MB is on the "weak" side of the storm!
im up to a lma 15 gust to about 16 here in onslow county...lol where is the wind
it definitely could
low 2-3hrs away man. ur will have a fun night lol
ok verticle. 15-30 mins and ur gonna get smacked wit another band. lets see how bad this one is. lol
Hey guys/gals, a little off topic question. Obviously, I'm new to this blog thing (3 days). I ahve been using wunderground sporadically for sometime. What is the big advantage to a membership or whatever they charge you for?
verticle this new band u will get in 15-30mis or so will be the first inner band u see so this one should be a good one
hope oyu r right lefty i could not fly a kite right now...lol,, it would be a boring storm with no wind...lol
first there are no pop ads apparently and in some of the imagery like radar u can get longer loops like 4nhrs or so. i use so many other sites that are freefor some of the same info i won't waste the 5 bucks myself lol. plus i have a pop blocker so i don't even see the ads
its definitely fun, then a tree blocks ur driveway-lol
low were exactly are u located, bewteen wilimington and jacksonvill and how far from the shore?
lefty, it is not an inner band! the only one existing right now is the closest one to the center
yes turtle the inner band closet to the cenetr is about to roatae onto the sc shore.


myrtleb its now a hurricane but not much real change
myrtleb what kind of weather are u experiencing
Lefty, that's what I thought as well. I can use the 5 bucks better for a gallon of gas!

Also, I think you're right about that next band coming in. It's the real deal. All of the embedded "storms" are significantly higher in mph for sure.

Let the games FINALLY begin. Will keep you posted!

Digital camera is also charged!!
lefty is that official and the inner band is still pretty far
lol yeah take some good pics
vhe, prepare to enter the realm of no power-good luck
Ok first one to see a gust higher then 50mph wins a prize..go!!!
turtle i have no clue what ur asking me

verticle i wills end u my e-mail to ur wu mailbox so you can send me any good pics u take
32. iyou
Yikes! People gamboling and gambling in the surf at Wrightsville Beach-even the birds are being blown backwards!
lefty, is it officially a hurricane?
VerticalHeatEngine: The main thing is no ads at all (no popups, no banners, etc). Plus you get to make radar loops up to 40 frames. But I do it mostly because I was using 'the weather underground' back when it was still part of the University of Michigan... you know, to show a little support.
verticle u have wu mail
yes at the 500 advisory
Ok...stupid question....how do I find my WU mailbox?? I didn't even know I had one. Told ya I was new to this blog thing. lol
Hi guys,
just found you. just went through a pretty good band about 30 minutes ago. all is calm now. what can we expect here in the hours to come. layman's terms please.
thanks
scroll up and on the left hand side on the top it will be red and say u gotmail. just click it
lefty, the inner one is coming ashore-lol. i was looking at the broken radar
Spoon, wow, I remember that!!! UMich had great tropical stuff...hurricane programs, etc. Or at least, links to them.
ur are in a break ebtween bands but one of the strongest bands close the the cenetr is roatating out towards you. u should see it get bad again in 15-30 mins
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 56.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 18.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.44 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.5 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 79.9 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 F

Conditions at 41004 as of
(5:50 pm EDT)
2150 GMT on 09/13/2005:
OMG...forget it...I found the mailbox! Duh!
strongest winds of the storm are in that band at the moment
lol yeah turtle thats what i was saying

thats funny verticle lol
and a another band is starting to form behind that band
Hey myrtleb, hows the house holding up??
vhe, this band will be fun until that power dies
nah outrocket that doesnt count..thats a buoy..lol..i mean on land..lol..
lol turtle verticle has a generator.
new vortex is out. pressure down to 985 and temp dofferenc inside and outside of the eye is up from 3 degress to 5 degress


VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/22:23:50Z
B. 32 deg 33 min N
078 deg 09 min W
C. 700 mb 2967 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 020 deg 072 kt
G. 303 deg 046 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 7 C/ 3050 m
J. 12 C/ 3043 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.05 / 4 nm
P. AF305 2316A OPHELIA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 76 KT SW QUAD 20:51
house and power ok. when is the band ya'll are talking about coming in. i was just outside and you can hear the wind coming in waves. small now but wondering when the bigger winds are coming. do you think that we will be getting any big winds and when?
u cant use a generator in the rain
the strongest band u hav seen will be hitting u in 10-20 mins.winds could be as high as hurricane force in the gusts
Generators work in garages, though. Not much rain in there! lol
if the garage is closed dont do it!
verticle here comes that band.
Turtl: well ventilated for sure.

Lefty: promises, promises!! lol
can someone explain why myrtle beach has a higher strike prob. that wilmington? i know that wilmington has a higher prob. of a strike than we do but the 5pm has us higher. just trying to expand my knowledge.
lefty thats great that you are willing to endure the aftermath of a storm thats what its all about god will bless you for that. also if got a chace think about it this storm is much like isodore has no inercore and has winds strongest way away from center, also im beginning to wonder about our boys from biloxi who i admire the hurri hunters but they seem this year to have ap[roblem getting the winds to match pressures and the
winds sustained at surface been following them for years 10 miles down the road from me at keesler field and recollect them having this much problem. maybe thats why hc.is so erratic sometimes. also think you would benefit greatly if you would have a couple days to come to ms. coast and study
the after affects of katrina think you would be amazed at its power up close it has surpassed camille if you got asec give me your take . thanks
myrtleb casue the cenetr is closer to mb right now and is moving towards it


verticle u just tell me when it gets bad lol
rain is starting again. i suspect that that may be the start of the band ya'll have been talking about..
yeah myrtleb, keep us posted on whats going on in that band
an inner eyewall is trying to form again. run for ur life vhe!-lol
yeah turtle i see that eyewall possibly trying to form.
how far from the center will myrtle be at the closest point and when will that be? also, how far out do the hurrican force winds go?
OK...food has arrived. I will be away for a little bit but rest assured if anything happens, you all will be the first to know. Oh yeah, planes are still flying here. No airport closure yet. Someine asked before i think.

Be back soon....
ok whos first..buzz in with the correct wind speed.
myrtleb i have no clue how close to thecenetr u will be. the hurricane fore winds are in a few cells located in some bands that might rotate into ur area. the storm is not orginisedlike most hurricanes and the strongest winds are not close to the cenetr but in the cells in some of the bands. now on the ne side of the eye or cenert a eye wall is trying to form. that wall if it can grow around the eye like cenetr than u might get that brushing u but thats a big if. right now u can expect sustained winds in the 40-50 mph range with higher gusts at the worse part u will experience.
attention i am so sad every one on this blog.check out my blog
Just curious....do you really lol as much as you write? Or is it just a case where someone verbally says something such as "like", or "you know what I mean" for lack of being verbally adept. Is this a case of being lacking in writing skills or are you really lol all day long?
i am sorry i have a goos sense of humor and chuckle aslot and i write "lol" when i laugh, aslo put it in there to show when i am joking as its hard to get emotion thru the computer. now if u have any other irrelevant question u want me to answer i be happy too
and personally cosmic i'd love to know what is ur problem with me?
you know what the best thing is about this cane is? usually there is so much rain in the bands that you cant really enjoy the wind. wind here is picking up.
LOL @ CosmicEvents!
No, that's it. Thanks for answering and stay happy.
cosmic u have issues. everyday pretty much u catch attitude with me. i don't know how i offended u but i would like it to stop


myrtleb, how bad is the wind
Hey all, back from Surf City. No surfers today though! Wind was about the same as yesterday but the wave height was definitely higher, some breaking just under the top of the fishing pier there. Waves moving up some of the dunes a few feet, going to be a lot of erosion from this one. Will get some pics up this evening, took some video too but need to find a place to get it linked!

Here in Scott's Hill now it's light rain, moderate wind, not very gusty. I've seen worse from thunderstorms, but they don't last this long!

Stormygace, saw your post about kayaking in the ICW around here, we like to go around the N. Topsail bridge, lots of marshes to investigate. Been in the New River on the air station too, just gotta watch for the occasional croc!

--JP
winds still not that strong. just wish i knew what to expect and when. oh, just wondering, why are there people trying to promote their blog over and over again.
lol i dunno myrtleb nut its funny


its hard nyrtleb to determine how much wind will actually make it ot the surface but u shoudl expect wind in the 40-50moh sustained range and higher gusts maybe as high as hurricane force or 74 mph
hi VHE,
how is your weather at the beach? not so much going on here now. what are you expecting tonight? Have you been here th

SHE IS STARTING TO GET STONG AND THIS MAY BE WE WILL HAVE A CAT 2 AND RIGHT NOW WIND 75MPH AND WITH 985MB OR 29.08IN
Afternoon all. I see cosmic is at Lefty again.lol.

Lots of rain with this girl. Heavey rains for hours on end. Flooding could be a big issue.

Just another breezy day here in Charleston. I still could not get that band Lefty.lol.
Back...Hey MyrtleB. Nada, nothing, zippo! Hardly any rain. The gusts have subsided.

It does look like she may try to sling a band or two my way later, but she may pull away just in time. She should just be to the North of my postion now.
hey sj. i thoight u might get one but nada, not one lol
lol verticle can't get u any winds lol that band rotated to your south and is roatting outward. it will be slow but we will get u some wind lol
how close is andrews sc to myrtle beach?
air force bas in mb recored wionds of 30mph with gusts to 41 befor it went offline 25 mins ago. trying to find a closer weather station
dang 8888888 985mb lol and your that excited i guess you would
have had a coronary if you would have been where i was 2 weeks ago and pressure was at 902 mb. i just funning you this is a
another isodore lacks inner core probably a little lees than what we had with cindy here in july with gusts to about 70mph.
if you stay indoors it want be catastropic. lefty watch the caaribbean by this weekend the pressure falls are to going to start getting interesting, or tragic im afraid where that will probably end up. by the way 888888 the pressure was so low my ears were clogged for hours.
hey guys, lets go to the community chat on the top of the page, its the same thing but, its instant messaging.
hey we finally have chat..wow
hey every one go to the communtiy chat, link on top of the page and enetr weatehr chat
What is Saint talking about in the Carib? Looks pretty quite to me.

yes i am excited if this get more stonger then i am more excited this like the cat 4 we this i was veary excited on that one when i did my live up date on right this hurrican is cat 1 that what i need add it to my laptop when it get done if it make it to a cat 2 yahoo
Hope I'm not sleeping when those bands eventually come my way.

Some quick observations: Pressure down to 1004.3 mb

Rain 0.61 inches. Winds still from the N at about 25 to 30 sustained with gusts in the high 30's. Highest gust was 42 mph.

Now, breezy with a light rain falling.
Can anybody explain this: 1700 NHC says Ophelia is 32.6N 78.1W. 1730 WU map says 32.7W 77.9N. This is 11.3NM difference. Or do I have this wrong? Thanks.
Everyone that is on the blog Please go to WHITEWABITS blog and put in City, State so that he may keep track of us here on the Blog. This way should another storm come our way/on the coast and you are not on the here he will know where each of us are located.

As there are still a few that we have not heard from since Katrina.
God Bless Them.
Joe B's Take
Note: SHortly , at 5:02 pm, after the discussion that is referenced below came, out, TPC did upgrade to a hurricane. This discussion was written before that update obviously.

As of this writing, at 7:45 pm, pressures have begun to fall in Ophelia. (985 mb)

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: OPHELIA A HURRICANE AGAIN.

A look at the doppler out of Wilmington plus the overall structure of the storm should have this back at hurricane status. This will be the 4th, not 5th time it has regained it as there was some faulty addition this morning that I did not check out but no matter, the storm has pulled itself together well enough to warrant, at that pressure the idea it is a hurricane. But the next 12-18 hours at the big worry as the convection gets tighter that the storm suddenly ramps to the forecasted pressure I have at 970 tomorrow morning. Recons this evening establishing any kind of fall would lead to ramping up of the wind even faster Here is an excerpt from TPC 5 pm disco. I understand his point, but mine is that a data buoy that is only one spot may not be catching what is going on 10-20 miles away. In any case read this for while it allows for the forecasters argument its not a hurricane, it certainly allows for mine. In most previous cases, such reports would have resulted in the upgrade: ........ THE HIGHEST RECON 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL HAS BEEN 76 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM WILMINGTON HAS BEEN AS HIGH AS 80 KT AT 9900 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE VALUES WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT 68-72 KT SURFACE WINDS AND MAKE OPHELIA A HURRICANE. HOWEVER... THESE HIGHER-LEVEL WIND VALUES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED VERY CLOSE TO NOAA BUOY 41004...WHICH HAS ONLY BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT. SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT DECREASED DURING THE DAY ...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME LOCALIZED SMALL PATCHES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS BENEATH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.... The last line itself means its a hurricane if that is right.

As it is the slow movement near the coast and the large circulation means a battering of the first degrees for the Carolina beaches.

While the bulk of the modeling is turning the storm east northeast, then northeast again, a key component is the weakening it is forecasting, for most modeling once re-intensifying the storm turns it back on a more poleward move. My worry is that the forecasted weakening is too much tomorrow and tomorrow night, and that the system is already hooking up the with the westerlies. Your accuweather.com site: http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_index.asp?mod=jma which is the Japanese model shows exactly what I am worried about and is the lone global model with me. The eta has been unbelievably bad on this, and has the wild scenario of the storm missing completely the connection now and waiting till the weekend.

So the moral is, I dont have any changes now to the ideas before. Believe me I see the other options, but since the weekend, the forecasted path ideas here have been good. The storms structure, if supportive of 70 mph last night is certainly supportive of the hurricane idea now.

This is a tricky test as even without Ophelia coming north, tropical air is coming north into New England enough so the height falls that occur may set off a sizeable away from Ophelia rainstorm. But just as likely an occurrence in my mind now is that the Ophelia winds up directly impacting the areas further north.

The overall pattern idea following the storm looks good with the new ridge building and the atlantic coming alive yet again the mid and latter part of next week
junk not in carrib now at about 43 long doesnt look like much now that old dust is in it but by the weekend it will be in carrib with a much more favorable climate bastardi and masters both say in the next week it will get busy again
MyrtleB....you still on???
888888888 dont get to excited i was till my house started ripping apart and wife and kids had to spend 8 hours in a closet i now know what brian norcross felt like during andrew. by the way the local news stated a few minutes ago that on some of the large cargo ships in gulfport they found wind gages stuck on speeds of 208 mph im sure that was gust but keesler afb reported sustained winds of 140knots with agust of 170knots.
i think if andrew was reclassified this will be to the pressure was at 923mb as it hit ms coast andrew was the same only about
20percent as large and charly was a dot in size comparison. just haerd news thought you buffs would find that interesting
what news did you her this from?
We just saw a funnel over Nassau !!! We are waiting to see what happens next, as we are still in Ophelia's "tail" or feederband :(
106. iyou
VHE - I think everyone's in the community chat room - just go to the top and click it.
where is Nassau?
Nassau, Bahamas !!! That's how far the reach of Ophelia appears to be :(
I just pulled up a loop. Didn't see any feeder bands down there for at least the last 4 hours. Maybe it was a local storm???
8888888 wlox out of biloxi gulfort the locals news that is still running continous coverage of the aftermath of katrina.
since you are interested it was one of these same type of boats that got the wind speed of camille 239mph before this 600ft boat landed in the middle of hwy 90. where the casinos are now dont think you any worries though of that kind of damage from opelia.
They said it was "disruption" caused by it :( Don't know what that means; but South FL and Northern Bahamas have had these "disruptions" since Saturday :(
i this like to watch cnn for live updat on landfalling hurrican and the weather ch that this about it
Most are in the chat, but they are going to have to make it a little easier to keep up. There is tropical chat also.
114. amd
sainthurrifan,

is there a link to the highest wind gusts at keesler. It's not that I don't believe you, especially since there was severe wind damage up a large part of the Pearl River, but I want to see a link for myself.

I know that for the NO station, WWLTV, they had a running headling blog. Does the wlox station have the same thing?
well 88888 when you have no cable and the storm hits your area the local news is your best bet my sattelite is in about 10 pieces of twisted mess havent seen w/c since katrina hit bastardi the last time i saw him in front of the gulfport va he looked scared to death i bet hes not near as nervous where he is posting for this storm
amid usually its wlox.com but they usually run a day behind on the internet with thier updated news from tv whre are you from?
ca do not get hurrican?
sorry 8888888 did not know you were in calif. thier is some
firefighters from calif here helping out and c.h.i.p.s.is in n.o patrolling house to house.
119. amd
me, i'm from outside of philadelphia, Pa, well away from hurricane country (MOST OF THE TIME). Although, i am fascinated by their sheer power. TS Allison, Hurricane Floyd, and Hurricane Isabel brought a lot of rain, and decent wind into my area.

I'll take a look at wlox.com now.

chat too hard to keep up with...can't see the history so if you blink you miss it...
121. amd
actually i should amend my first statement about being fascinated by their sheer power. As a scientist, the dynamics of hurricanes have always interested me, and that we really don't know nearly enough about these systems.
Some areas ARE getting alot of rain near the coast around 5 inches already,there are bands coming in with gusts to 50 maybe higher,and rain rates greater than 3 inches an hour with the heavier bands.
You are absolutely right amd.
that ok that why i do not see a hurrican but i would like to see one one day to see what it is like and i want it to be a cat 5 weeeeeee!
OMG!!!
Still trying to find a land gust over 50mph..Anyone???
MyBahamas...disruption sounds right. Hope you all are ok and your power comes back soon!
if there are any they are in that inner ring of convection...Link
amid the comments came from local meterologist mike reader so dont know if they will make web site. but the damage is far worse than camille which is incredible camille was sustained at
190mph. p.s what happened to the eagles wish they would have beaten atlanta saints fan here.
130. amd
the eye looks like it has stopped again. Does this means another prolonged stall (this time over the gulf), or the eventually beginning of an eastward turn?
Someone was asking where Andrews, SC was located. It's about 20-25 miles inland from Georgetown, and probably 40-50 miles SW of the Myrtle beach area.
Let me say something,wen the reports were coming in from katrina as it was making landfall,the reports made the storm seem unimmpressive,if you tried to find wind reports as it made landfall,they were no greater than around 100mph gust but as we know the reports came in they were MUCH higher.In other words observations often are unimpressive as it is occuring but then you find out later how high they really were understand?Hope that answered your question weatherguy03.
Hugo..you HAVE to be from SC!
amid i like donovan but i think vick is so overated as a quarterback he is a good running back i think mcnabb and brady
are the best because they are winners. i know our guy catches flack but aron brooks is a much better passer than vick if those kness go hes done.
What do you mean?Ktrina was worse because it was larger,damage is so frikkin bad I was absolutely shocked,there is destruction from this hurricane unlike anything I have EVER seen


Yep..I was living in McClellanville for Hugo (and took a 11' high water mark on the side of my house, which was built on 11' high ground) to show for it.

Now I live on an island south of Charleston..just a slow learner.
Hugonaut, holy cow, that was almost the worst place to be! Was that HS close by?? Lincoln or something???
hey jedkins seems like yesterday we got you straight on the power of camille then katrina best it. by the way katrina still had 125mph winds when it went through hattiesburg 90miles north of coast. the nhc is ajoke on these wind estimates but in opelias case probably right it has no inner core much like isodore in 2002.
Cammile was not worse,just to let you know in so many ways katrina is by far the worst in damage and maybe in deaths now considering the amount killed nowadays tells you just how firce it really was.Also there is NO WAY you could believe cammile was worse than katrina.Just one figure here,damage estimates have exceeded 100 billion now!
I think Jed was trying to say that just becuase a reported gust shows to be 40mph doesn't mean that the winds are only 40mph. I remember Fran and Floyd. here were were being reports as having 50mph gusts. The next day the airport had record gust of almost 80mph..but they were never reported as being so high
Forget the "almost" part, other than perhaps Romain Retreat which had only a handful of houses.

The pictures of Gulfport are very much what we had left in McClellanville, though it's not on the ocean. (Note for trivia buffs: the "after teh storm" scenes in "Forrest Gump" are actual footage of McClellanville after Hugo.)

And your memory is correct, it was Lincoln High where so many almost drowned. I'm not sure what genius thought the school where the parking lot flooded in any heavy rain was the best place for the only shelter to be located.
It sure looks like it has an inner core now,but there are several resons why 150mph katrina was so darn bad.For one that area is one of the worst areas to get hit,another is that the storm was very very large,another was the amazing surge estimated over 30ft!Another reson was thos huge waves over 40 ft hitting those buildings with category 4 winds and that surge was a the worst combination.With most Hurricanes,there is one paticular characteristic that makes it bad.But with katrina,everthing rain,wind surge,waves,size,is the main reson for why it was so destructive.
sorry jedkins i was just ribbing when said a couple weeks ago that charly was worse than camille because camille hit a unpopulated area but you got the links from us coast storm vets and you understood. do you remember lyons showing charlie compared to katrina.
Exactly what the point I was proving NCrebel.
I remember the forests. EVERY pine tree for as far as you could see all snapped exactly the same and in the same direction. Took many years to recover.

Good luck on your new location. The season is still upon us!
LOL yes I do...Not to say charley wasn't bad but katrina has made most hurricanes look like a breeze lol.
hugonaut i as a avid tracker for years i sure remember hugo sister and bro in law had summer home in myrtle beach. but whats scary have volunteers from s.c. here on coast and they said this make hugo look like atropical storm the escambia police that are here said the same thing about ivan said this was far worse that is scary.
je
dkins i agree katrina was worse than camille because of size i meant that camille was far worse than charly you must have misunderstood me.
Woah,look at the long range compostie reflectivity at wilminton,it looks like it is getting stronger.
at gulfport they estimated a 28ft surge with 40ft waves crashing on top of that. no wonder casinos are in the middle of hwy 90.
Jedkins i will be suprised with this one to see alot of gust higher than 75mph.
153. iyou
I could use a new eye wall replacement after being in that chat room!
please visit my blog
Then again looking at that radar maybe not..lol...looks like its trying to tighten up...we will see.
went out @ 16:50 - delayed from 16:15 plan by sideways rain - still, it was stinging when out on the beach access ramp. Waves were intermittently up to the steps & the end of the walk (usually 3 to 4 feet above sand) was surrounded by surf below it. the wrack line was not well defined & fairly regularly the foamy surf was reaching into the bit of sea grass covered beach/dunelet. Ocean Dunes condos were OK w/water reaching within 20 to 30 feet - a little standing water behing dunelet. Bigger rollers still breaking around 50 yards out with very confused surf - strong vivisble lonshore current. Squalls persisting - lost power once - but back on now. All in all like a northeaster - but, pleasantly, much warmer. However, temps in lower 70s - seems cooler than previous TS/Hurricanes. Not complaining.

It seems from tracking location & current, albeit slow, movement, the storm wants to come in north of the nc/sc border but south of Wilmington. Will just have to wait & see.
weather guy my insurance adjuster came by sat siad they dont have enough adjusters for katrina no where near he said if this storm hits thier want be any adjusters for awhile. he said they just finished up withfla hurricanes of last year. so sure hope this one sstays weak my niece is adoctor in wil mington. but i have to admit looks better now but have a hunch it will die down as it approaches coast.
BTW - checked out Ft Fisher cam from Hurricane tracker - it does NOT do the rollers justice. IMHO
Gust ts force winds with a light or steady rain is common with a nor' easter,extremely heavy bursts of rain often are the case with tropical cyclones depending on where you are located and how the storm tends to be.
Think of a tropical storm as strong winds with extremely heavy rain bursts (sometimes tornados and lighting accompany these bursts) often in on and off fast moving bands.A nor' easter will generally have steady winds and steady light to moderate rain,occasionally with early or late season nor' easter you can have more of a heavy on and off banding,not as heavy as a tropical system but prolong piriods can ad up quite a bit.
Poor Ophelia She just wants to be a Hurricane like all the others. She doesn't like us calling her unusual. Looks like alot of the inland rain has tapered off. No dadblame wonder it hasn't started raining yet.
Radar presentation is immpressive but storms that have priviously weakened significantly in their inner core often have trouble(at least for a piriod of time)mixing down stronger winds.
163. iyou
Where does she go from here?
is it just me? where did the community chat link go? not where it was....
165. iyou
it's gone!
166. iyou
Jedkins - typically or - atypically-where would a storm go from here? in the shape that she is in?
Looking as some of the IR loops she's realy loving that warm gulf stream water.
the link for the community chat is now in the upper right corner of jeff masters blog.
Linkcommunity chat ....heres a link to the community chat system.
170. iyou
ten minutes there was like eight hours here lol!
I prefer it in here because you can look back at what has been said.
too old to keep up with that.

O has got the wobbles again or so it seems
ok everybody I have not been on here to post but I have been reading... Now just a thought Camille vs Katrina, lets take a look if Camille have hit the same area in 2005 rather than 1969 it would have looked the same as what Katrina looked today... I was here when Camille hit and there was not that much or even people there then like there is now... But we do have to think that Katrina was a very big Storm and done far more damage than Camille father inland not just on the coast... If Camille would hit the East Coast today it would also be one of the biggest storms in history... Just a Thought...
it looks like she may be stating to make that NNE / NE turn in the next 6-8 hours

would be better for the coast...but id like to get something up here in SE Virginia.
Looks like Ophelia may bring some hurricane force gusts to a large area of NC Coast from Jacksonville to Kill Devil Hills I believe its called/
nah, Katrina was a much larger storm than Camille and Camille's winds were exagerated. Katrina was a lot worse. Period.
Just over in the new chat room. too fast for me. It's a chatty cathy type deal social thing I guess. Good if that's what you want but I'm here for the hard core weather talk so I can learn something. Just talked my daughter and her husband into splitting from Wrightsville. They live oceanfront. I guess no evac there. I find it hard to believe. Just got in what's up with the storm? mainly when is it going to pick up speed? Looks like an eye.
killdevil, you should get some of Ophelia once she nears the Cape
Ophelia looks to be strengthening as she approaches North Carolina, there is a possibility of her reaching 80 to 90 MPH before she touches land, somewhere between the Jacksonville area and Atlantic Beach
Would you have ever imagined that the eye would look this good after the "eye" that it had last night.
Hey hurricane 79,

looks like it's ramping up. Watching the kids six while they scoot. No need to get their vehicles and boat trashed. I find it hard to beleive there isn't an evac down there. If I hadn't called them they'd be eating popcorn.
Community chat is a little fast and chit chatty for me.

SHe looks like she is kinda sitting still. Her moisture on the WV has really extended NW/NNW. I wonder if she could move inland a little ways?
LOOK AT THE SAT ON TWC.. Pretty damn impressive
That's funny hooked. I was just thinking how ragged the eye feature was last night.
I'm not too worried about the wind here. It should be TS by the time it gets here. The flooding could be something else though. Local emer mangmnt says this could be our worst flood event up this end of the sounds in 50 years. This is the track I have feared most since moving here in 88. Gotta go check some stuff, i'll be back.
This link should be www.ophelia.com
Link

Ocean Dunes condos were OK w/water reaching within 20 to 30 feet by Stormygace

Is this the Ocean Dunes on 75th St. North ??

If my morning flight isn't canceled I'll be checking in there on Wednesday for a week.

Nice coincidence if it is :)
killdevils, I know youre right by the Coast, but how high up in elevation?
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/01:54:10Z
B. 32 deg 31 min N
077 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 2954 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 234 deg 069 kt
G. 146 deg 037 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 9 C/ 3051 m
J. 14 C/ 3044 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2316A OPHELIA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 72 KT W QUAD 22:10:30 Z


It would not look the same,katrina was many times as big with a worse surge,as I explaned before charley and cammile were sirious wind huricanes(and andrew)katrina is was a everything hurricane lol.
Hey storm junkie, that's just about what I said. I saw Lefty didn't last long either. It may fill a void for some. Not sure how they'll fit the song of the day on though. Maybe a polka.
KDH is no more than 10 ft above sea level.
Ground el. +11'. 2 story on piling. surrounded by hills.
Kill Devil Hills. Cantore won't see much here.
I did not see the post in the blog, but did anyone notice the new 95L invest? Link
sj heard some trees were down in charleston county and some power outages
Lot of high ground around here hooked.
Cantore - get in your row boat and report from inside the eye wall
It would be one of the biggest,mostlikely worse than andrew because they are similar type storms but cammile had higher winds.
Your place should be okay then killdevil, but I hope the electricity stays on.....
yeah 79. weak surface low with some cirulation. upper enviroment looks goofd she has the potential for developmet
Hey weatherwannabe I beleive I said that but what you are not thinking is there are million more people on the coast than there was in 1969...
Lefty, it was inevitable that something else out there would enter the picture after a week of mostly having only one storm to look at, in the peak of the season.
taco - Katrina was still a much more violent hurricane. Not to diminish camille or andrew. Katrina had that extra punch she was a mean one
Actually 79 I am 3.5 miles from the ocean due west on an island. Directly behind Kill Devil Hill, where the Wright brothers made the first flight. Was Kitty Hawk back then.
lefty and 79, is that the new one that was talked about in the discussion, located around s of 17n, 32w
lefty 982 pressure,, not big falls today but as long as this thing seems to want to stay over the gulf stream,, do you see a strong 1 at landfall,,,, i know winds have not responed well yet but they should right
Exactly lol.
Lefty, its funny how generous the ships model is on newly defined systems in the Atlantic, although, anything is possible
hurrican ophelia had a pressure of 987mb now down to 982mb what a drop in pressure what dos this mean? a cat 2?
Jim Cantore, get in your row boat and use your weather Pide Piper skills to pull this storm out to sea!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nothing like rainbands to the south of richmond..

Also Kill devil hills, I love the OBX, nothing like vacationing on a moving island
killdevil, I am confident that the surge will not cause you all flooding. I cannot speak for others on the island, unless they are above 6 feet above sea level. I do hope you do not lose your power though, I remember it takes several days for crews to get it back up if its widespread.
If the power stays on it will be the first time. Last night i lost power, just for a moment at least 7 or 8 times. The transformers up on the beach were blowing up like firecrackers from all the salt. Happens every noreaster.
That recon Lefty posted reflects a S ward jog. I think?

Yea lefty those (trees) are about 10 miles SW of me. They were in the bands. Nothing more than a breezy day every where I been today. Maybe gusts to 25. I am right on the edge of that rain band that is dissipating.
rescueguy, its a system with a weak low located about 9.5N 38W...Way out there, but models take it towards the Northern Leeward Islands in 5 days.
Also, the highway will be washed over in KDH... It is about time to take up the road along the Ocean in KDH. The houses there have high tide under some of their houses.
just checkied it 79, thats not to bad cat 1 in 5 days i see that happening but i think it will be styronger

5 mb drop could mean a couple things. first the last recon was an extrap so it was not a true reading second she might be geeting her cenetr more developed but it probly won't majke it to cat 2 strength but she could
What Radar is TWC pulling that feed from ... Look at that
thanks 79, ive been up all day to tired to focas on the blurred map, guess we will watch and see if Mr. P is brewing
wow sj i am sorry man. i am trying to get u a band lol
Sat I mean
just goes ir
I have a generator so do my neighbors. Believe me we are snug here. the rest of the subdivision i.e. all the canal front lots will get flooded and I will be cut off for awhile till the water recedes. No in or out. No biggy. Worst flood was Floyd, still had 6 feet freeboard on the slab.
What are you talking about hooked on tropics. Have you ever been here???
Hooked you are talking about Kitty Hawk. Get your facts straight.
Killdevil, are they expecting the breach south of Rodanthe to be washed out again?
Canals never flooded in the time I lived in KDH (on a canal)...how high has the water gotten in those canal front homes. Have several friends that live on those canals.
rescueguy, I do not want to see the P storm, it is French for my brother's name. Every time a name in my family comes up there is trouble, starting with my name, Andrew.
Sorry, see if I spend my vacation dollars there again, damn... LOL
hey, hugo was french correct??

yep rescueguy
Hooked, I expect there may be more than one breach. Hatteras Island had one last where the sound joined the ocean. The corps came in and dredged it. It overwashes hwy 12 frequently where you are talking about. it's part of the Capr Hatteras Nat seashore. since last year they have been piling up really high dunes, well every year, but there are still places that are vulnerable. The big slosh in the sound the breaches to occur. I don't see this storm riling up the ocean here much. The soundside flooding is going to be the big issue. I think ocean front will be wind damage only and some beach erosion if it takes it's projected path.
OK lefty, where's my bands????
killdevil, you know the landcape pretty well. Do you think Beaufort and Atlantic Beach and a few points East will be suceptable with Ophelia bringing a 6 foot surge to them? I had a friend stationed in Beaufort and remembered there were shallow waterways there.
some nice ones comming on shore now. and i am sorry the stornm decided to stop again lol. motion is now stationary

next 15-30 mins verticle u should see the winds and rain pick up
She is stationary. It will be intresting to see how she handles the diernal period.
Where have I heard THAT before? lol

Hey, I'm going down to the beach in 5 minutes. If you are still on (or anyone that cares) I'll give a report on what we see.
yeah i will be here. be carfulle don'twant u to get blown in the water lol
sj i have cloudy skies lol from the hurricane
Thanx Lefty. I'll catch you all later. Safety is first for sure but hey, it's a storm and we live at the beach....so...we're off!
have fun
Stationary. When is thing expecting to start back moving? Will the direction change if it were to hold off another 24 hrs? Perhaps no Easterly turn? Are the waters warm enough to allow it to strengthen while it's "out at the beach"?

- C
We had a sprinkle come through with that band lefty.lol.
Dubby, it would likely mean she would just meander until the trough gets close enough to pick her up and take her NE or NNE. That is the only thing I can think.
Quick update - had our first power outage here, lasted about 1.5 hours. Surprising since it wasn't raining and not a lot of wind. As soon as it was fixed the latest rainbands started moving through, and the wind has picked up. Barometer down to 29.90 (1013 mb) from 29.95 3 hours ago. Should be an interesting night.

Just checked the radar - do I see a slight NE motion?

--JP
lefty, looks like you might get a piece of this one, unless you drove down to chase it and be in the heart of it
lol there u go sj

she is expected to start to move north shortly and now htey slowed her down as the trough will not be strong enough to accelerate her, that might mean anything is possible and if she didn't turn ne till later that coulc change alot. she has the potential to itensify but probly not much more that 80-85 mph
yeah were suppoe to get atleast somr rain and tstorms tomm night but still thinking of going to va beach but we will see
jp where u at man
good luck, I've had enough for a while, but we could use a little rain to wash all this stuff out
She is showing no sign of moving anywhere if you ask me. Maybe a slow drift, but I cant tell. Looks like she is trying to pull the rain around the center from all sides. Check the Charleston Longrange loop. The E side used to be out of the loop and the W side used to be closer to the N in CharlestoN.

Link
There is a runner on TWC here in Charleston that reminds us we are in a Hurricane watch and a Tropical storm warning and reminds us that she is "an erratic storm." I could not have put it better myself.
new vortex is out not much change


URNT12 KNHC 140316
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/02:54:30Z
B. 32 deg 40 min N
078 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2946 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 297 deg 072 kt
G. 205 deg 039 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 9 C/ 3049 m
J. 13 C/ 3042 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C45
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2316A OPHELIA OB 22
MAX FL WIND 76 KT NW QUAD 02:08:10 Z

yeah we had a runner her sj telling us we could see winds of 20-25 mph and gusts to 35 lol
I'm just north of Wilmington, Scott's Hill NC. Looking at the long range from ILM it sure looks like it's moving NE to me.

--JP
This is a constant runner. There is no chance that she would get drawn W to the trough if the trough is not moving fast enough.

I think you can see on the WV why she stopped. There was that "hill" that some one spoke of earlier-lefty maybe?
could this go from a 75 mph hurican to may be 90 to 100mph hurrican overe night?
888889g most likely no
That inner core is trying to wrap all that moisture around it.

982 is pretty low Lefty, if she does not move much she could be a strong one or weak two.

They are now saying we could get 45mph gusts in Charelston.
I made an updated track for Ophelia, fairly close to my track 2 days ago, and shifted East of my previous track. Link
wow 45mph winds. i dunno bout that lol


Just went out to round up the dog, and one is down here, but it's a pine..they really don't count, break off very easily. Actually it's partway down..trunk is snapped, but it's currently hung up in some other trees, but leaning away from the house anyway.

No one can say this storm hasn't at least provided a certain amount of entertainment as everyone plays "Guess where it will go next, if it ever starts moving again anyway."
lol good story
i am doubting the 20-25 with gust to 35 they are saying we will get up here lol
It looks like that pocket of dry air is rotating around her center which looks to be on the W side of the dry ary?
I doubt the sinds too lefty, what you think about that pocket of dry air on the IR?
maybe
but could the wind get up to 80mph or 90mph over night
i dunno, she is the weirdest looking cyclone i have seen lol
maybe 88889g but don't expect her to get much stronger than she is now
Help!

I am supposed to go on vacation in the Outer Banks (near Hatteras) this weekend (check in late Saturday). Do you think all will be okay or do I need to make alternate plans?
wow. is should be alright but i would make some backup plans incase
ok i this want a good hurrican so i can do me live update and i do not mean by storng hurricn but 80mph or 90mph will do me this find
I have stared at the Weather Channel until I am cross eyed trying to figure out what to do. It seems like one minute all will be okay and the next I should head for the hills.
lefty she has the same structure that Jeanne had as she made the cyclonic turn last year...some dry air being pushed out, and a big eye
Sunlvr,
I'd make other plans. They just evacuated the place. Usually after an event like what is coming you can't even get on the OBX unless you live here. you might check out the northern beaches, Duck, Corolla. Some leaving Hatteras have done that. That is if the storm doesn't go there. Sorry.
no no no 79. jeane had a well orginised center. this storm does not have a orginised core like jeane did
79 jeane looked alot better on microwave and if i can find some i will send u a link so u can compare
Tipofisland-
The canal lot bulkheads are frequently a foot from overtopping just from a strong south wind. covers the road in frequently. The ground floor enclosure has to have vents so water can come in and out. Some are a little higher than others but when there is a storm pushing the water north they get wet. If you look at a map Oregon Inlet is the only inlet south of near the VA border for the sounds. the water has nowhere to go.

H79-I don't know that area well but it's all low. a 6' surge will surely upset the apple cart.
i dunno how to find the old microwave data on the navy site. apparently i can only see the latest images for jeane
visit my blog homepage
I was referring to Jeanne as it made its cyclonic loop.. she had a weaker inner core when the ridge was bulding in to its North and forcing her South...makes no difference.
Lefty, try this... Link
79 thats why i wanted the microwave data caue she loocked alot betetr than ophelia does now when she made her loop. that was the point
thanks sub but it wasn't much help. only had limited pics of jeane and was only from the trimm microwave satelite
but i appreciate the help
Ophelia's eye looks the best it ever has now--I wonder when the next vortex data message will be and if it will show a pressure drop?
Lefty, here is the structure I was referring to: Link
Stationary again, that is amazing. Perhaps tomorrow shall be our last day with Ophelia?

Also lefty, from the looks of this compared to past images, it appears that the tropical Atlantic has nearly cleaned out all of that dust and dry air.
Check out his Jeanne satellite gallery: Link Crazy
next vortex be out when next recon gets there about 200am
ok 79 i said MICROWAVE DATA thats what i am refering to and shows u the inner structure of a storm
willjax, dry air has seemed to filter out. The GFS forecast 3 storms to develop next week: Link
The original comment I made was just about the appearance of Jeanne compared to Ophelia, referring to the large eye at one point, thats all.
right andf i said to you that while they both had alarge eye, ophelias is do more to the dry aor than jeanes who had a very deep orginiesed center which is why i wanted to find the microwave data so we could compare and u could see the difference. ur comparing visual imagery and i am talking structure. 2 storms can look alike on the surface but its whats going on inside whoch is why i said to sj this is the weirdest storm i have seen, which is why u replied with the jeane thing
Jeanne landfll as a cat 3 hurrican in FL hurrican Ohelia is a cat 1 hurrican and has not made landfall yet and yes hurrican Jeanne did do her one loop and had a big eye or small eye but hurrican Ophelia did two loop and it dos not look like at this that she has a very good eye at this time
but 79 i will agree with you jeane had a huge eye
thx 79, found that link to be very interesting. I now predict that i will be spending several hours browsing the NCEP information. I wonder if three storms were to form in close proximity if they will interfere with one another like Nate and Ophelia did for a bit.

One more question: is the GFS developing those storms from tropical waves that have already left the African coast, or from waves that are pre-existing but have yet to leave the coast? Or are they waves that don't yet exist?
lol willjax i don't think he can accuartely know that info.

but u know its from some disturbance, upper low, trogh or a wave. when u use the models like her did u just use it to see if formation will occur
Its tough to see the inside of a system, even with the mocrowave data. Although it helps a bit in the early stages, it has not been developed enough to be a good resolution for stronger storms. This is one reAson why the NHC cannot make its intensity forecasts accurate, even within 24 hours, due to internal flucuations in stronger storms. For that reason, and for lack of resolution, I tend to disgard microwave data. Although, in the future, it may be the best solution we have for intensity forecasts! Bottom line, most sites have not saved micorwave data, because it is not as "pretty" as other images from past storms......You must admit, that one site has a lot of storm satellite images....
79........ great pictures..... only reminds me how lucky we were to be south of Jeanne and Frances..
Willjax, what's strange and unexpected is that the further West system from the GFS is one that seemed to have dissipated North of Puerto Rico. I do give the GFS credit for correctly forecasting 2 storms to form out of that trough nearly a week ago (Nate and Ophelia). The second storm that was just forecasted by Ophelia in the mid atlantic is Invest95L, a wave to be watched, and moved off Africa a few days ago.
oh yeah 79 and i have been fliiping though them sent u gave me the link, but microwave data is pretty good in my opinion and the new sat are pretty good. specially at 85mhz at seeing the cenetr structure. not sure what microwave u use but some are not good while others are pretty good and some new ones going up in the next couple years will be even better. i use microwave data as much as possible as it can show you the start of a eye wall cycle and what the eye wall of a storm looks like
Okay, well I asked b/c depending on if the wave pre-exists or not would greatly increase the accuracy of the predictions. A wave forming is one large event, and then leaving the coast and finding favorable conditions is another important event, and then organizing into a depression is another event...etc. Obviously each of these events will depend on a huge number of variables.

So I suppose I can't place too much emphasis into the formation of three systems, rather I wil take the information from the models to mean "conditions should be favorable for the formation of a tropical system."

Also 79, those pictures of Jeanne were a good reminder and a bit sobering.
yeah willjax thats what i meant. plus nate and ophelia did not form from a wave but from a trough and were acurately forcasted by the gfs to form
Based on satellite and models I made a forcast for invest95l. Do not be decieved by the name of the page, it is for experimental purposes only. Link
True Willjax, I forgot hot far South she was as she approached.. The one year anniversary of her being named!
hurricane79, If you want some help with that forecast track, you can pretty much draw a line to my house. I just got around to replacing an air conditioner yesterday that was ruined by Francis. I figure the next storm can't be too far off!
BAck from the beach...soaked!
luck for you subtropic, there is way too much time to see if that thing will even develop
Yeah hurricane79. I don't really pay much attention to Atlantic systems until they get to around 60 west.
verticle what was it like out there
wow the eye is trying to get better orginised. looks like it is about to be even smaller now
Lefty, I was thinking the same thing... the radar presentation is currently the best it has ever been. I am looking forward to the next recon report.
Lefty, if you're still in here, the beach was pretty uneventful. Breezy with some small gusts, very light but steady rain. The tide was maybe a foot or 2 higher than normal. Decent waves, however. Would be much larger if there were onshore winds. Facing the ocean, the wind was at our backs on the left side.

Bertha in MB was blah. This wasn't even a Bertha! Looks like we are the bridesmaids again. I'm out, nothing going to happen here. Later.
really interested in taht next vortex message
poor verticle soory. yeah i didn't thionk the beach would be much as the win is comming from the north and is not a comming from the ocean. once she starts to move again u should see more bands its just that she is not moving at all


hawk yeah shes looking good. i can't wait. wife said it was cool for me to go to va beach and ride her out lol
Looks like Southport will get some heavy rain and near tropical storm force winds in the next 2 hours.
I would add that the Frying Pan Shoals buoy is in or very near the deeper convection on the northeast side of the eye and it is still only reporting sustained wind of 51 mph with gusts to 65 mph.
when is the next recon report due? last one was over 2 hours ago.
hawk whats the bouy number


sst, that was the last vortex for that recon flight. next recon flight should be getting there right now so u hsould expect a vortex in the next hr to hr and a half
i can't even get the bouy webpage to load so don't even worry about it
Agreed lefty, the ndbc page is down.
just when u really want to use it too 79 lol
its like she stooped right there over the warm water and is getting herself togetehr and all prettied up befor she makes landfall lol
Frying Pan Shoals in buoy 41013. The buoy site is down right now but you can still get all the buoy conditions on the state current conditions pages.

Link
Still here for a few.....if you want, you can dial a buoy for info!
We have alomst had something like a cold front come through, the temp has gone down by 4 degrees in the last 20 mins and the wind has switched to WSW from WNW--dewpoint also down 6 degrees.
Lefty I wonder if my old prediction from tuesday night last week that she will make cat 2 and never make landfall might yet happen.
new gfdl is out: Link
cooler dry air being pusshed well ahead of the trough and the air shows up well on wv. why ur winds shifted just might be due to alot of thins but ur still on the east side of the trough
StSimonsIslandGAGuy you could be right and we would all be put in our place. Even though there would be some storm surge and rainbands impact regardless.
Link

Link for Frying Pan Shoals
well it doesn't matter anymore if she doesn't make landfall. her wind radii is so that her strongest winds are 60 miles from the center so regardless the obx will get cat1 surge and strong winds for a long time as the trough will not be strong enough to speed her up just nudge her ne
i noticed ocracoke island was told by the governor of north carolina to evacuate sometime saturday night/early sunday. hmmm. kinda interesting. a government official evacuating a place that is only reachable by ferry service two, three, maybe four days before the storm hits. maybe mayor nagin should take some pointers from this and stop blaming the federal government for his mistake of not evacuating a city that is already under sea level the day the storm was predicted to hit new orleans which was three days, maybe four days before katrina hit. funny how he wants to point fingers so no one will realise the mistake he made by ordering an evacuation 24 hours before a storm instead of the proper 72. congrats to you governor Easly for having the common sense to do this. and for that, you won't get your fifteen minutes of fame like mayor nagin has. sorry if this offends anyone but, this is the truth and sometimes the truth hurts.
Thanks, Vertical Heat Engine
anytime. Just wish the info wasn't 2 plus hours old!!
stansimms, I agree with you except for one point, Ocracoke Island would take more time, especially, by boat to evacuate. Otherwise, the Governor should make all persons within 40 miles of shore at least have an off day to decide what to do with themselves as far as preparations.
thats the things with bouys, they are always 1-2 hrs old
i agree with you hurricane. but, wouldn't it be about the same amount of time considering the population of new orleans compared to ocracoke? there isn't four hundred thousand people living or visiting ocracoke. plus, the ferry ride from ocracoke to hatteras island is only 30 minutes. not sure how far the other ferry's are timewise though.
stansimms, its hard to compare the 2 areas. The main point that I remember in the post Katrina days is that the buses sould have been used to prevent loss of life. The NO scenario is painfully sobering, including the possibility that more preparations should hve been made.
At 2am EDT Frying Pan Shoals has wind of 56 mph gusting to 67 with a pressure of 990 mb, down 4 mb in the last hour. Considering the eye has only moved a few miles in the last hour it is my guess the storm has deepened a bit.
maybe hawk but don't forget the cenetr wobbles
new vortex pressure down 2 mbs

URNT12 KNHC 140611
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/05:49:40Z
B. 32 deg 50 min N
077 deg 56 min W
C. 700 mb 2933 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 321 deg 062 kt
G. 237 deg 046 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 10 C/ 3050 m
J. 15 C/ 3050 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN EAST
M. C50
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF300 2416A OPHELIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 62 KT SW QUAD 05:36:30 Z
EYEWALL FAIRLY RAGGED

temp in the eye is rising and the temp difference outside the eye vs inside the eye is also rising. she is getting stronger but do not see those winds up yet
hurricane. it's weird they said they didn't have the resources to get everyone out of NO but, then they show a parking lot with about 500 school buses floating in the water. lack of resources my butt. mayor nagin screwed up but, like every other government official he's not going to take the blame for his killing the people in his own city. bush isn't on top of my list right now but, at least he had the "grapefruits" to take the blame for this. bet you no one else will.
72 in due time all heads will roll. did u see they arrested the owners of that nursing home for not evacing and basicaly killing those old people. trust me mike brown will be the first of many resignationa
I'm thinking Ophelia may have about peaked in intensity as it will soon be moving over the cooler coastal water and will also be interacting with land.
lefty--once more, what is the source/URL of your updated hurricane stats? Thx!
stansimms, if the pres stands up at all, no others will take the blame unfortunately.
hawk she as lots more time as she aint moving anywhere right now so untill she starts tomove u can't say she has peaked.


here is the link to the nhc website

Link

and u can find some of the same info on the tropical page here at wetherunderground
hawk she is stationary and hes yet to showany signs of peaking or weaking
I want to know who was on that Senate committee that Ok'd Brown's initial appointment to FEMA--a cursory glance at his resume would have been a big red flag....(political appointment or not)
lefty, did you happen to see the reports that came out a day or two ago? maybe longer than that? the government response to this storm was actually quicker than the response to hugo and andrew. i'm not defending the government at all but, why is it everyone is expecting help to arrive fifteen minutes after a storm hits? you can't. sure, the planning was bad but, this was a bad situation that got even worse. also, people that are still being rescued out of NO have no tv, no radio, etc. they're wondering why mayor nagin didn't do something earlier. hmmmmmmm. people that actually weren't influenced by our wonderful media. nagin's gonna be a hero out of all this. tisk tisk.
ur right, lefty...but I read there were 2 Repub's. and 2 Dem's. on a panel that OK'd his initial appointment--just curious to know who they were.
LEFTY,STOP SPEWING...AND OVER HYPING!!!!
72 this is post 9/11 there a diff benchmark amd plenty of heads will rool from fema to homelandsecurity to the mayor to the governor. plenty of heads. just wait till congress start their investigation. plenty more heads will roll.
TULSAF5TORNADO

what the hell are u talking about?
and if thatys true those senators have a tough road to hoe lol

i don't care what party ur in. this isn't about polotics this is about life
i hope so lefty. i've an uncle that was reported missing for a few days but, he's ok now and in great health. now to ophelia, from the looks of the projected path looks like hatteras is gonna see quite a bit of flooding considering the eye will probably pass thru the pamlico sound which happens to border the outer banks on its west side. that's where most of the water damage comes from when a storm hits there. thankfully this is only gonna be a small cat 1. anything stronger and the sound water surge will pretty much destroy that gorgeous island.
cat 1 yes small no lol this is a mid size storm with a huge wind radii. i think one of the worse parts will be the heavy rain they will see for long periods of time as well as prolonged periods of strong wonds. but i think ur right on the hatteras thing
TULSAF5TORNADO

first exactly what stupidity am i spewing and second how am i monopolizing the board?
yes, the duration of the high winds/surge of Ophelia could be equally or more damaging than a smaller, higher cat. storm that moves fast. May be similar to earthquakes, where the biggest ones inflict the worst damage because they last longer, not always that the shaking is stronger.
yeah exactly.
TULSAF5TORNADO
come on, ur not going to answer my questions?
i'm just hoping and praying my mother's camper will be ok. we've property in hatteras.
with storms hitting hatteras it's always touch and go. when it's announced a storm's going to touch hatteras, you go. lol.
well i amsure it will be ok. atleast i hope it is
371. iyou
TULSA - what are your impressions of Hurricane Ophelia?
lurkin....
373. iyou
TULSA ?
sent u mail 79
375. iyou
Still waiting TULSA.
looks like she is finally moving. lppks to be nne i belive
Yes, without a doubt Ophelia has begun the northward move to the coast, albeit slowly. Latest recon still says 980 mb with max 75 kt flight wind and temp difference of 6 degrees now.
79 mail
vortex

URNT12 KNHC 140717
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/07:06:50Z
B. 33 deg 02 min N
078 deg 01 min W
C. 700 mb 2928 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 055 deg 066 kt
G. 314 deg 039 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 9 C/ 3049 m
J. 15 C/ 3051 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C50
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 2416A OPHELIA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 75 KT NE QUAD 06:03:10 Z
EYEWALL RAGGED EAST THROUGH SOUTH
Has anyone heard recently from those nearby O? What are the conditions like near NC?
wrightsville beach near wilmingtoin has winds 45-50mph sustained
My she's still looking rather robust and now with the acceleration to the NE in question. Wrightsville Beach, where I was able to coax my daughter and her husband into fleeing their oceanfront residence just hours ago did not order any evacuation that I am aware of. Topsail Beach, just up the coast did or so I heard. The mechanism of giving evacuation orders and when is broken. I guess some people didn't learn anything from New Orleans. This is shaping up to be real ugly down there.
yeah kill
Lefty- since the models have missed the weakness in the steering current, specifically the force of the push to the NE, what do you think the time frame is for it's forward speed. This is the track I have feared since living here, without considering a slow mover. The flooding up north here may be the worst in a very long time. Our emergency managers know this and hope they start getting people out soon. Wouldn't surprise me to get an evac order in Dare County after the 5 am update. If it doesn't speed up I compare it to walking at a swift pace from Wilmigton to KDH. It's a 5 hr. drive.
good morning. It's hard to tell but it almost looks a nudge to the NNE ib the radar and the last few frames of some of the sats...anyone one else seeing this?
yes shes moving nne or due n

kill this will be a long one for sure.
new vortex

URNT12 KNHC 140904
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/08:50:00Z
B. 33 deg 07 min N
077 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2930 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 114 deg 064 kt
G. 025 deg 047 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 9 C/ 3043 m
J. 14 C/ 3049 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C50
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2416A OPHELIA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 77 KT SE QUAD 07:23:10 Z
EYE STILL RAGGED
STADIUM EFFECT VISIBLE IN MOONLIGHT SE QUADRANT

So sorry!!!
Blog Confusion!
(spamming myself!)
(but...good song, no?)
For what it's worth the weather station located witht he webcam at Wrightsville beach is reporting sustained winds of 40-50 MPH. The highest gust recorded was 65mph and that was just a minuted ago.
392. iyou
seems like they're trying to get that camera up - lefty, have you been up all night?
393. iyou
Great song maryesther-such longing...
394. iyou
Good morning NC-how is it where you are? Where are you??
It looks like it is trending a little right of track. If that keeps up it could get back over the gulf stream but stay offshore.
breezy and raining. probably all it's gonna be here
397. iyou
That's good - any evacuating yet?
70 miles from coast they evacuated TO here...lol
399. iyou
geez!-where is 'to here' - and the Kure Beach cam is up.
well if everything continues as is i will be in va beach later tonight. looks like it will be fun
401. iyou
Sorry NC-i know you told me before-my memory's a slippery slope sometimes!
iyou can i get a link to the cam please
neevrmiond ifound it lol
404. iyou
lefty - www.sncsurf.com/ - click Crystal Pier cam
thanks iyou. i had it bookmarked and couldn't find it, but found it after i asked for it lol. thanks anyway
406. iyou
That's great lefty-you be CAREFUL-sorry, it's the mom in me! taking your 35mm.?
407. iyou
among all the favourites!! like trying to find a particular grain of sand on the beach ;-)
yes got an advantix so iwil get some panorama pics lol. should be in the ramada right on the beach. should not see winds above 50 mphs so i should be fine. but if the track shifts more to the east i won't go. i need a good experience if i am going to spend the money lol. ilive 2 hrs away so i can wait befor i decide not togo but it looks like its on as of right now
Starting to get light enough where you can actually see the ocean on cam...and she's got a bit of a temper this morning.
man that eye is looking mean
yeah wind just gusted to 68 wow. thats awsome
wrightsville beach is viewable as well but its darker there. should get betetr in the next 15-30 mins or so
lefty you can double click on the image and make it full screen. I use a dual monitor setup and had Kure & Wrightsville full screen...now that was awesome
is that the lifeguard chair at hure beach? if so man thats some waves
415. iyou
Kure Beach cam takes a while to load-but it's a different day there to-day than yesterday-it's wild! the water is coming way up beyond the lifeguard chair - try not to get water on your lens-that'll be a feat in itself!!
yeah i been doing that. thanks for the heads up though. bout to set it to full screen and go lay next to the wife, haven't been to bed yet
417. iyou
I thought so!! your wife still remembers what you look like!! ;-)
All it needs is sound. get some rest lefty....gonna be a LOOOOOOONNNNNGGGGGG day
NCREBEL Do you know where they evacced from?
5 bucks says that life guard chair doesn't make it thru the day lol
421. iyou
sleep well, if not long, lefty...
nc no its gonna be a long night. i am sleeping all day so i can be awake all night tonight. going to va beach to ride out whats left of this monster.
423. iyou
you're on lefty-i hope it does though-some manmade structure to withstand nature's exuberance ;-)
lol no way it makes it. the eye is still 70 miles south. no way lol
All of the Brunswick Islands were under mandantory evac so I'd assume there. All of the motels here are packed which is highly unusual for mid week.

I'd just about be willing to be the lifeguard chair isn't there at lunch...lol
oh no it can't take another hour nc lol. the sand underneath it is being ate away. it will fall ove in due time
I'll bet the cam doesn't survive....it was rocking pretty good a minute ago
lol was just thinking that
The need to fix the temp on Kure beach...it's way too cold for a hurricane..-680s LMAO
wonder if the peir makes it with out any damage
What about all the tables on the pier at Wrightsville. Someone was definately not using there head. Both of those piers look like wood do there will more than likely be some damage.
my wife just asked if the pressure had dropped because the cats are acting wierd (freaked out). I looked and last night the pressure was 1014 and now it's 1007 and falling
just realised its only low tide lol wait till high time in 4-7 hrs.
lefty I just looked it up on the tide charts and verified with Boat & Beach on weather.com. High tide was at 5:30 so the tide should..LOL..be falling Next high is around 6 tonight. The brunswick beaches had high tide around 4:30
i see the monster lefty its at 42 long all the models are starting to pick up on it. that will be one for you to watch and maybe experience but it will end up in the gulf im afraid
with this subtropical and the lack of depth of these cold fronts in the mean time enjoy your little nor'easter. have anice day.
you guys stay safe even weak storms can be tragic got to go wife having cancer surgery this morning be out of touch for awhile when i get back the carrib problem will be he maain topic im afraid katrina cleanup is done the best i can so wife can have some of a house to come back to god bless
Interesting note I just found. Both of those came sites are hosted but Surfchex which is owned by a local meteorologist in the Wilmington area who is also an avid surfer. That might explain what the shot are lines up at the waves.
Good luck saint hang in there.
NHC now confirms a NNE heading for Ophelia
I don't think the wind is as strong as NHC is saying..From reports I've seen it looks to be more in the 50-60 sustained and gust to 75+....It's right near Wilmington and it's staying in the mid 50's...we'll see....I guess right at the "eye" it could be close...but the recon data has been a little fishy this storm....
yep w/80mph winds moving at 6mph
Based on the lastest vortex message the strongest winds were in the SE quadrant. I agree with the direction but I'm not sure on that forward speed.
maybe it'll stay off the coast and we'll just get lots of rain and TS force winds at most....'course that's what it looks like either way...
form the wilmington radar it looks almost like a little more ENE..The bamm model has really close with short term...who knows..
latest runs...
Link
Over the past 9 hours (03Z-12Z) the heading has been 012 degrees with an avg speed of 5.5 kts
All the models are pretty tightly clusted. I think the UKMET starts smoking crake in a couple of days based on it's track. All in all should be one of the milder storms. I just hope this winch doesn't stall again It looks like it will start getting nice here after lunch.
I'm sitting here safelt in fla watching the surfcheck cam.

http://www.surfchex.com/


Awesome! I am not going to get a thing done today as long as this camera stays up.
I have to say this and go. . .

Is it too early to talk about the other wave around 38 west. If you look satellite images may be starting to show an organized lower-level circulation in the cloud motion. It may be too early to talk about development, for now. . .
May be to early but some of the models are already picking up on it.
Also watch for developement this weekend N. of P.R.. to the Bahamas, old trough will set up down that way from Ophelia..Latest GFS is starting to hint at some thing near there, we know this routine already. As for wave out in the Atlantic, not sure about that one yet..some westerly shear from trough moving to the north of it, but that should lift out in a few days, so maybe it will then begin to develop
Good morning from Wilmington...pressure here has dropped to 29.65 (1004 mb). Not much rain right now, it comes and goes, but the wind is up in the 40-45 mph range, rare gusts to around 50-55 (estimated). A few small branches down, but still have power! Doesn't look like we'll see the eye if it keeps on the current motion. More later...

--JP
i hav updated my blog
Rain and wind definitely picking up, winds shifting from NE to N, starting to get the effects of the eyewall, barometer down to 29.60 (1002 mb). Winds about 50 mph, gusting to 60+ steadily.

--JP
All the fellow bloggee's in NC doing okay, looks like this is going to be a heavy rain event with lots of wind. Still going to be a rough day on the coast of NC. Specially the outer banks. Keep safe
If it wasn't for all the rain it would be a nice day to fly a kite inland. A few gusts to 30mph and sustained about 20. looks like it might have wobbled a bit north.
New thread, Dr. J update