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Ophelia dies; Philippe, Hilary no threat; Nesat drenching the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:07 PM GMT on September 26, 2011

High wind shear and dry air finally managed to kill off Tropical Storm Ophelia yesterday. The storm's remnants continue to fester a few hundred miles east of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots should make any regeneration of Ophelia slow. NHC gave Ophelia a 20% chance of regenerating by Wednesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed west-northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble any land areas. Philippe is the 16th named storm this year, tying 2011 with 2008, 2003, and 1936 for 7th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Philippe's formation date of September 24 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 16th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier 16th storm. With only three of this year's sixteen storms reaching hurricane strength so far, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851. Philippe has a modest chance to become the season's fourth hurricane; the 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Philippe a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Tuesday afternoon. Wind shear is expected to steadily increase today to 15 - 20 knots, limiting Philippe's chances to become a hurricane.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 2:25 pm EDT September 25, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday, but most of the models do not bring Hilary ashore over Mexico's Baja Peninsula during the next five days. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear on its journey north, the storm is likely to be no stronger than a tropical depression if it does manage to reach the coast.


Figure 2. Microwave image from NASA's TRMM satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat at 4:56 am EDT Monday September 26, 2007. Rainfall rates of up to 0.8"/hour (yellow colors) were occurring along the southeast quadrant of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Nesat nears landfall in the Philippines
Typhoon Nesat, a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, is just a few hours from landfall near Casiguran on Luzon Island in the Philippines. Nesat was expected to intensify to a major Category 3 storm before landfall, but the typhoon ingested a large pulse of dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm, slowing down intensification. The typhoon still has time to intensify into a Category 2 storm, but Nesat's wind and storm surge will not cause major devastation. Heavy rains from Nesat are a major concern, though. Recent microwave satellite images (Figure 2) show rains up to 0.8" per hour falling along the southeast quadrant of Nesat's center, and heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches will cause significant flooding in the Philippines. Nesat will lose strength during its crossing of the Philippines, but is expected to regain strength as it crosses the South China Sea before making another landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting stormpetrol:


Lmao!! I been having alot of those lately looking at the Atlantic, the W Pac & E Pac always sames to have their act together in terms of formation of Cyclones & tracks, the Atlantic is mysterious, maybe that's why there are so many unexplained things that happened there, though I understand the Pacific has had there share also, just saying...
True but its not in the Bermuda triangle yet or that funny box called Herbert.
502. Relix
So wait... where's Ophe going? :P!
Quoting jrweatherman:
I see the wishcasters from the Caribbean are out in full force. LOL


Hey, I'm an Un-caster
Repel caster

All I wish is water for my cistern....

Keep it full...
any new info on the typhoon in the west pac?
Quoting Relix:
So wait... where's Ophe going? :P!


<------------------------------------------------ ----
Quoting BDADUDE:
True but its not in the Bermuda triangle yet or that funny box called Herbert.


True I was just sayin in general terms!
Quoting tornadodude:
repost since the blog turned haha

hey everyone,

just popping in, should be on more,

but feel free to check out my new blog, a lot of new and good storm chase news!

Things are going well with it, and Im looking for things to really take off this coming season!

thanks!



link to blog ^


Hey Tornado, happy to see that you organized your research...
Excellent...
Quoting sunlinepr:
That Low in the N Pac.... looks impressive.....




I think that maybe Ex Roke that hit Japan. Could be wrong though.

Click to Animate
Quoting sunlinepr:


Hey Tornado, happy to see that you organized your research...
Excellent...


thanks!

things should be going well, this spring should be great for the chase team! the live stream will be up and running as well. may get some practice with fall storms, or blizzards


very consolidated now
Ophelia 60% at 8 p.m. is pretty amazing.

High wind shear and dry air finally managed to kill off Tropical Storm Ophelia yesterday. The storm's remnants continue to fester a few hundred miles east of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots should make any regeneration of Ophelia slow. NHC gave Ophelia a 20% chance of regenerating by Wednesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook.
Quoting Chicklit:
Ophelia 60% at 8 p.m. is pretty amazing.

High wind shear and dry air finally managed to kill off Tropical Storm Ophelia yesterday. The storm's remnants continue to fester a few hundred miles east of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots should make any regeneration of Ophelia slow. NHC gave Ophelia a 20% chance of regenerating by Wednesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook.
In the big picture they really dont have a great understanding yet of these storms. They have a heck of a lot of research to do before they get the forecasting better. The weather is not an easy science to understand. The computer models and mets have a lot of work to do to improve their accuracy.


I noticed the the west winds are in the central Islands, as opposed the N Islands earlier today, tells me the center is not as far north as earlier!
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

ex Ophelia in this link appears almost being pushed SSE?!


Try using the unenhanced IR and see if there's a SSE track.

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.html

If you look at the right hand side of the frame you can see the circulation off to the east moving in a nice westerly direction before it disappears under the high clouds. If anything, ex-Ophelia has a strong westerly component and probably a WNW track at the moment.
Interesting, Ophelia could have a new look in the morning. We will see then.

If Ophelia regenerates....where does it go?
Quoting nofailsafe:


Try using the unenhanced IR and see if there's a SSE track.

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.html

If you look at the right hand side of the frame you can see the circulation off to the east moving in a nice westerly direction before it disappears under the high clouds. If anything, ex-Ophelia has a strong westerly component and probably a WNW track at the moment.


She looks like she is becoming more aligned vertically.
Quoting nofailsafe:


Try using the unenhanced IR and see if there's a SSE track.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Not exactly but as I explained to BDADUDE earlier the center appears to drop south in the last frame around 17.5N/56.5W
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
They analysed way off..



I don't think so.. The lower circulation is hanging half out the NW side of Phillipe's convection.




Quoting Michael93:
Dr. Masters: Your assistance please. I depend on Wunderground's Dopler Radar in the pacific Northwest for broadcast on my five radio stations in Whatcom county.

Since Wunderground has added the new Langley Hill Dopler on the Washington coast (which gives a great view of approaching Pacific storms), it has either disconnected or diminished greatly the returns from the Camano Island Dopler. This has resulted in a total Olympic Mountain shadowing of The Bellingham Area from accurate radar coverage.

This has just occured within the past few days. Is there a way I can comunicate with Wunderground in a more effective manner? Many thanks,


I'm seeing the Camano Island Doppler is down for maintenance. Sometimes this can take weeks if it's some odd, hard to find part or if money is an issue. Fiscal year ends next week.. On the other radar you may try in the upper right..select radar type & play with the heights, maybe able to see what's over & above the other side of the mountain if adjusted.
can someone tell me what category nesat made landfall in the philipenes?
Quoting nofailsafe:


Try using the unenhanced IR and see if there's a SSE track.

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.html

If you look at the right hand side of the frame you can see the circulation off to the east moving in a nice westerly direction before it disappears under the high clouds. If anything, ex-Ophelia has a strong westerly component and probably a WNW track at the moment.
Locks need to be installed failsafe in order to meet code dude.
It looks like Hilary is finally worn out.
Quoting nofailsafe:


Try using the unenhanced IR and see if there's a SSE track.

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.html

If you look at the right hand side of the frame you can see the circulation off to the east moving in a nice westerly direction before it disappears under the high clouds. If anything, ex-Ophelia has a strong westerly component and probably a WNW track at the moment.


you could be to totally right i'm just saying what see which could very well be an optical illusion
Per satellite images, I can't see anything at 19N 60W.... NHC will have to do some adjustments in both track and thinkings ^_^.

Yes Caribbean wishcasters are out in full force! Go!
ZombieOphelia lookin atcha with green eyes...
Ophelia......Dawn of the Dead...
Quoting stormpetrol:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Not exactly but as I explained to BDADUDE earlier the center appears to drop south in the last frame around 17.5N/56.5W


Ophelia is regenerating it seems underneath its convection...what a center reformation! I did not expect this....Ophelia won't quit! But I want to know if she can make a bee line toward the eastern US or if the cold fronts will keep her offshore like we saw with the last few storms...
Quoting CaribBoy:
Per satellite images, I can't see anything at 19N 60W.... NHC will have to do some adjustments in both track and thinkings ^_^.

Yes Caribbean wishcasters are out in full force! Go!


I think it would be virtually impossible to get Ophelia into the Caribbean given the current synoptic setup. She would have to be pretty much devoid of deep convection, and continue westward as a low-level cloud swirl.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Ophelia is regenerating it seems underneath its convection...what a center reformation! I did not expect this....Ophelia won't quit! But I want to know if she can make a bee line toward the eastern US or if the cold fronts will keep her offshore like we saw with the last few storms...


Chances are she misses the US.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
ZombieOphelia lookin atcha with green eyes...

not even worried!!! :)
Do the models regenerate Ophelia? If so...again...where could Ophelia go?
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think it would be virtually impossible to get Ophelia into the Caribbean given the current synoptic setup. She would have to be pretty much devoid of deep convection, and continue westward as a low-level cloud swirl.

What about the Leewards?
Quoting CaribBoy:


Doesn't seem to be any rotation that far north.
She is not there, that was her old center, but is obvious that isn't there. Do to the lack of information and since they(HH) decided to call off their flight today NHC decided to play safe mentioning the old COC. Those are my 2 cents on this.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Do the models regenerate Ophelia? If so...again...where could Ophelia go?


WHO KNOWS...
Ophelia preparedness tip:

Where is the safest place in your house from a zombie?
The living room.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Chances are she misses the US.


How's prospects for Bermuda or Atlantic Canada?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


How's prospects for Bermuda or Atlantic Canada?
She wont come near Bermuda. She wouldnt dare.
O is fascinating lol.
Quoting CaribBoy:

What about the Leewards?


Sorry, I thought you meant a classic Caribbean cruiser. The Leewards may still see some action.
Ophelia 2005; Indecisive on whether it wanted to be a tropical storm or hurricane....

Ophelia 2011; Indecisive on whether it wants to exist at all....
Quoting Ameister12:
It looks like Hilary is finally worn out.
I hope not, she needs to stick together so we can get some tropical moisture up in southern California


This is insane with Opelia.. First few frames of this loop look where the convection is compared to where the 20 is, then after (the 20 shifts too as the loop attempts to keep her centered). The convention completely relocated plus some in a 1/2 hour way off to the east.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


How's prospects for Bermuda or Atlantic Canada?


Both of those areas are still well within the crosshairs, especially if that center truly is reforming amidst the convection. As for Atlantic Canada specifically, Newfoundland is probably at largest risk from her, and could see a close call.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sorry, I thought you meant a classic Caribbean cruiser. The Leewards may still see some action.


:-)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Both of those areas are still well within the crosshairs, especially if that center truly is reforming amidst the convection. As for Atlantic Canada specifically, Newfoundland is probably at largest risk from her, and could see a close call.


This sounds like last year's season all over again...Bermuda and Atlantic Canada tracks....or tracsk in the Caribbean and GOM....but not in between...
Quoting Skyepony:
This is insane with Opelia.. First few frames of this loop look where the convection is compared to where the 20 is, then after (the 20 shifts too as the loop attempts to keep her centered). The convention completely relocated plus some in a 1/2 hour way off to the east.
That has to be an optical illusion.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


This sounds like last year's season all over again...Bermuda and Atlantic Canada tracks....or tracsk in the Caribbean and GOM....but not in between...


Unlike last year though, the storms are recurving farther west, near and to the west of 70W. Last year that wasn't the case.

And we also aren't seeing continuous Central America/Mexico hits. The US has been hit, contrary to what people assume.
551. JLPR2
So now I'm confused and have no idea where the possible LLC of Ophelia is. XD

As I said earlier today. Such a confusing storm. :\
Quoting Skyepony:
This is insane with Opelia.. First few frames of this loop look where the convection is compared to where the 20 is, then after (the 20 shifts too as the loop attempts to keep her centered). The convention completely relocated plus some in a 1/2 hour way off to the east.
If I didn't know better looking at that I would swear she was moving south. The year of the weirdest storms.
Quoting BDADUDE:
That has to be an optical illusion.
I have a simple answer. All stormcasters move to Bermuda. :)
Quoting BDADUDE:
I have a simple answer. All stormcasters move to Bermuda. :)

Or Newfoundland. :)
555. JLPR2
All in all, it looks good, but not as good as earlier.


Lets see how it looks after D-max.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If I didn't know better looking at that I would swear she was moving south. The year of the weirdest storms.


The posibility is there. I still think there are two areas trying to setup circulation which is confusing espically at night.


Perhaps the tropics is feeling the solar winds..

Paper on that..
Maybe the next TWO will warn islanders to monitor EX OPHELIA : "INTERESTS IN THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ANS PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM"
Quoting JLPR2:
So now I'm confused and have no idea where the possible LLC of Ophelia is. XD

As I said earlier today. Such a confusing storm. :\


Let me rephrase...

Ophelia 2005: Indecisive on whether it wanted to be a tropical storm or hurricane....

Ophelia 2011: Indecisive on whether it wants to exist at all...and indecisive on where it wants to be located...

These 'O' storms are tricky...Olga 2001....Opal 1995's rapid intensification.....yep....Taz is right...as he once said watch out for Oscar next year....
What happened to Taz? Was he banned?
19.2 N, 59.4 W

Quoting BDADUDE:
What happened to Taz? Was he banned?




will you guys stop that plzs
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If I didn't know better looking at that I would swear she was moving south. The year of the weirdest storms.


There have been other years that are weird-storm producers...like Gordon in 1994...Ginger in the 1970s...

IMO...the only weird thing this year is that Jose was declared in the first place....still can't let that go LOL...
Quoting sunlinepr:
19.2 N, 59.4 W



there is nothing there apparently
Quoting Tazmanian:




will you guys stop that plzs

Ok dude. My appologies. Forgive me.
Quoting Chicklit:


look like a face or ghost Casper boooooo!
Quoting CaribBoy:


there is nothing there apparently


They gave this new coordinate (19.2)N. Previous was 18.5N.....
Where are they looking??

Link
Quoting JLPR2:
All in all, it looks good, but not as good as earlier.


Lets see how it looks after D-max.


Well...Ophelia has got perfect antiyclonic outflow over it...click on HDW-H check box in this anim...

In other words....the upper winds have become very favorable for re-genesis of Ophelia...

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If I didn't know better looking at that I would swear she was moving south. The year of the weirdest storms.


I'm thinking there's been some multiple vorticity. You can clearly see one here to the east of the convection before sunset that moves SW as the convection, which looks to be firing off another circulation moves south. As the sun sets you can see how strong the convection is firing, from the shadows of the center clouds as the sun went down, doesn't look that misplaced.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
can someone tell me what category nesat made landfall in the philipenes?


3.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Let me rephrase...

Ophelia 2005: Indecisive on whether it wanted to be a tropical storm or hurricane....

Ophelia 2011: Indecisive on whether it wants to exist at all...and indecisive on where it wants to be located...

These 'O' storms are tricky...Olga 2001....Opal 1995's rapid intensification.....yep....Taz is right...as he once said watch out for Oscar next year....
I did some wikiing and found out there has never been an TS/Hurr. Oscar.
573. JLPR2
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...Ophelia has got perfect antiyclonic outflow over it...click on HDW-H check box in this anim...

In other words....the upper winds have become very favorable for re-genesis of Ophelia...



Yeah, an ULAC formed over the system, which is giving it great ventilation and low shear. Maybe Ophelia is confused and doesn't know what to do with such favorable conditions. XD
Quoting CaribBoy:


there is nothing there apparently
Check out the shortwave loop. Speed it up. Circulation looks to be around 56.5 W and 17.5 N with most convection to the west of the circulation.


Link
Quoting sunlinepr:


They gave this new coordinate (19.2)N. Previous was 18.5N.....
Where are they looking??


Actually 18.5N was at 12Z. 00Z gets the same position as 18Z.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Check out the shortwave loop. Speed it up. Circulation looks to be around 56.5 W and 17.5 N with most convection to the west of the circulation.


Link


thats exactly what i'm seeing...
Quoting Skyepony:


I'm thinking there's been some multiple vorticity. You can clearly see one here to the east of the convection before sunset that moves SW as the convection, which looks to be firing off another circulation moves south. As the sun sets you can see how strong the convection is firing, from the shadows of the center clouds as the sun went down, doesn't look that misplaced.
Exactly but looks further east and south of where the co-ordinates say she is.
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, an ULAC formed over the system, which is giving it great ventilation and low shear. Maybe Ophelia is confused and doesn't know what to do with such favorable conditions. XD


lol what a mess ophe is
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (T1118)
9:00 AM JST September 27 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haitang (1000 hPa) located at 16.6N 107.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.0N 104.2E - Tropical Depression
580. JLPR2
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Check out the shortwave loop. Speed it up. Circulation looks to be around 56.5 W and 17.5 N with most convection to the west of the circulation.


Link


Seems like a MLC to me.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TYPHOON NESAT (T1117)
9:00 AM JST September 27 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Overland Luzon

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nesat (955 hPa) located at 16.4N 121.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center in the north quadrant
220 NM from the center in the south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.5N 117.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 18.6N 113.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 19.4N 110.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
9:00 AM JST September 27 2011
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 18.4N 138.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.0N 136.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Unlike last year though, the storms are recurving farther west, near and to the west of 70W. Last year that wasn't the case.

And we also aren't seeing continuous Central America/Mexico hits. The US has been hit, contrary to what people assume.


Yeah...Irene strayed from the trend....but haven't the rest recurved toward Bermuda and Canada or taken a route inside GOM? Arlene also hit Mexico....
ASCAT caught Ophelia..

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


3.
ok because some articles im reading have it is a 1 at landfall.. hope the damage isnt extreme there.. thanks :P
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TYPHOON NESAT (T1117)
9:00 AM JST September 27 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Overland Luzon

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nesat (955 hPa) located at 16.4N 121.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center in the north quadrant
220 NM from the center in the south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.5N 117.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 18.6N 113.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 19.4N 110.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)

so it made landfall as a 3 and weakened to a 1 right?
Xray (unused)
Looked on Wiki for 'Fifty-Two Hurr. Season. This is an unused name. They actully had an X name.
Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT caught Ophelia..

What information do you get from that pass??
589. JLPR2
Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT caught Ophelia..



Broad and to the NW of the strongest convection. Ophelia needs to work out a few problems tonight. At least ASCAT was useful today.
Quoting JLPR2:


Seems like a MLC to me.


I think someone posted (can't find it now) that center was at something like 19 N...59 W....which makes sense it this loop....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.htm l

The faded white clouds underneath the brightest white clouds seem to discern an LLC at that location...while the highest and brightest white cloud tops are displaced somewhat to the southeast...
586. wunderweatherman123 1:31 AM GMT on September 27, 2011

---
it would still be a category two on the Safir-Simpson scale
Don't forget Omar
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
586. wunderweatherman123 1:31 AM GMT on September 27, 2011

---
it would still be a category two on the Safir-Simpson scale
wait its a cat 2 now but made landfall as a 3 correct?
Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT caught Ophelia..



Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I think someone posted (can't find it now) that center was at something like 19 N...59 W....which makes sense it this loop....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.htm l

The faded white clouds underneath the brightest white clouds seem to discern an LLC at that location...while the highest and brightest white cloud tops are displaced somewhat to the southeast...


Hah! For once ASCAT is useful...and it too confirms a center around 19N 59W....
595. Relix
Oh! Far. Bye Ophelia :P!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Exactly but looks further east and south of where the co-ordinates say she is.


I see it. You can see the kink on the ASCAT too. Have to see if she jumps down there next or if she sticks with the broad circulation. The Anticyclone is centered more south to favor that jump.
Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT caught Ophelia..



wow 19.5N/60W must have the MLC i was looking at
Ophelia = Psyclone.
Lol
Quoting Skyepony:


I see it. You can see the kink on the ASCAT too. Have to see if she jumps down there next or if she sticks with the broad circulation. The Anticyclone is centered more south to favor that jump.



It looks like she is trying to wrap the convection in further south and east.


Nice windsat of Phillippe
philipe shud be up to 70mph if not a cat 1 next advisory
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Post 572.
Looks like it's moving South East on that loop.
Weirdness Rules!
593. wunderweatherman123 1:33 AM GMT on September 27, 2011

wait its a cat 2 now but made landfall as a 3 correct?

---
yes. it has been overland for at least 2-3 hours now.
Quoting Skyepony:


I see it. You can see the kink on the ASCAT too. Have to see if she jumps down there next or if she sticks with the broad circulation. The Anticyclone is centered more south to favor that jump.


Its not likely that Ophelia (now at 19N 59W) would simply jump SE into the surface pressure falls associated with the upper anticyclone...given the general easterly trades that dominate the tropical latitudes....perhaps the center will kind of meander until the convection to the SE (and the upper anticyclone) catches up to the center....
Quoting interstatelover7165:
I did some wikiing and found out there has never been an TS/Hurr. Oscar.


Yep...that is because this naming list was first used in 1982...and the naming list has "had bad" luck since its inception...

1982: Cold AMO
1988: Cold AMO
1994: Cold AMO
2000: Warm AMO...we had many storms...but they weren't naming subtropical storms that year (that wouldn't start until 2002). Therefore....the last storm of the year would have been Subtropical Storm Oscar
2006: Warm AMO but El Nino ruled, so we only used a few names on that list again...
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
593. wunderweatherman123 1:33 AM GMT on September 27, 2011

wait its a cat 2 now but made landfall as a 3 correct?

---
yes. it has been overland for at least 2-3 hours now.
ok i got you. 3 at landfall weakining over land to a 2 :) any restrenghthining with the typhoon once it gets back over water?
That mess in the SW/central Caribbean might bear watching!
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
philipe shud be up to 70mph if not a cat 1 next advisory


With a partially exposed center?
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
philipe shud be up to 70mph if not a cat 1 next advisory

ATCF says Philippe is weakening
AL, 17, 2011092700, , BEST, 0, 157N, 346W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 60, 45, 1015, 300, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
Quoting KoritheMan:


With a partially exposed center?
im looking at infrared, i havent seen the satalite apperance since 11am in the morning
Quoting stormpetrol:
That mess in the SW/central Caribbean might bear watching!


"Flash storms" triggered from upper divergence induced by upper low...a

Although there is some upper anticyclonicity (good outflow) that started to develop directly over these storms...there is no surface low pressure system (e.g. tropical wave) in the area...so it will take persistence for this area to get more interesting. Right now...the convection in this area kind of waned off in last few hours...we'll see...
As Keep would say, mark 12.5N/76.5W as next AOI
Quoting Neapolitan:

ATCF says Philippe is weakening
AL, 17, 2011092700, , BEST, 0, 157N, 346W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 60, 45, 1015, 300, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
probably because of the exposed center i was informed about. looks like another miss at getting a hurricane.. what a bumer :( the vertical instability has been really annoyning in not letting these things get strong. and we have had lots of out to sear's too! 2010 had the beautiful recurvutures :)
Quoting Neapolitan:

ATCF says Philippe is weakening
AL, 17, 2011092700, , BEST, 0, 157N, 346W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 60, 45, 1015, 300, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,


Philippe...so boring for some reason...its just so basic and normal....
606. wunderweatherman123 1:47 AM GMT on September 27, 2011
ok i got you. 3 at landfall weakining over land to a 2 :) any restrenghthining with the typhoon once it gets back over water?


It has some strengthening in the south china sea before reaching Hainan Island and southern China region later this week
Philippe moving ENE already IMO. Big blocking high and the setup , same one pushing ex Ophelia S/SSE , jmo.
Anyway , everyone have a goodnight, catch ya on the flipside!
Quoting stormpetrol:
As Keep would say, mark 12.5N/76.5W as next AOI
Around ~where?
Good evening everyone. Ophelia looking about as good as she ever has ever since she drowned herself in the ocean. Oh wait that was in Shakespeare's Hamlet.

She is looking better though.
Philippe being sheared from the West side
Quoting KoritheMan:


With a partially exposed center?


You're right...I wouldn't be surprised if Philippe gets sheared even more....there have been so many roll off upper lows from the NE Atlantic that retrograde SW and shear up systems from the east Atlantic....this is what I keep seeing in the upper winds studies this year....
sorry guys but the 2011 season wasnt the "it" season.. we still have october so lets see what that brings.
dry air to his west also
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
sorry guys but the 2011 season wasnt the "it" season.. we still have october so lets see what that brings.


Well...this was not the year to have that given that we already had the "it" tornado season and "it" winter season earlier this year...enough's enough....
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
sorry guys but the 2011 season wasnt the "it" season.. we still have october so lets see what that brings.

Don't you think that this year has been enough? We've had a record breaking tornado season, severe flooding, horrible drought, etc.

I am glad that this hurricane season hasn't been bad bad, although it has still been bad.
for some on the east coast it is an it year
Shutdown averted since FEMA can get by with what funds it has for the rest of the fiscal year(which ends with this week).
Quoting will40:
for some on the east coast it is an it year



we got a lot of OCT and FL is at highest risk for hurricane land fall so by no means un less some how wind shear takes overe in oct FL i not out of the woods
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't you think that this year has been enough? We've had a record breaking tornado season, severe flooding, horrible drought, etc.

I am glad that this hurricane season hasn't been bad bad, although it has still been bad.
oh i was refering to the hurricane season and based on the numbers and increased threat for US landfalls i was worried alot. the troughinf off the east coast has been around for about 3 years but one storm slipped beneath it (irene) so 2011 already beats 2010 in terms of damage for the US. the east pac though impressed me with its major and hurricanes as the east pac is below average for named storms (14) average for hurricanes (7) and above average for majors (3)
east pac: 8 7 and 4
Quoting will40:
for some on the east coast it is an it year


True for my peeps down just east of me...and we had a close call here for myself with Irene....
Quoting Tazmanian:



we got a lot of OCT and FL is at highest risk for hurricane land fall so by no means un less some how wind shear takes overe in oct FL i not out of the woods


you misunderstood Tazz i didnt say the season was over
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't you think that this year has been enough? We've had a record breaking tornado season, severe flooding, horrible drought, etc.

I am glad that this hurricane season hasn't been bad bad, although it has still been bad.
Amen to that. The terrible heat, drought and fires in Texas are enough disaster for me throw in the tornadoes and floods and whatever else in the USA and it was a horrible weather year. How many billion dollar disasters can this country stand?
636. JLPR2
Maybe Ophelia's MLC is taking over... again.



Besides that I have no explanation as to why the convection moved to the south, a little more than 2 degrees of latitude from the LLC. O.o
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


True for my peeps down just east of me...and we had a close call here for myself with Irene....



she put me out of my home for 5 days
Quoting will40:


you misunderstood Tazz i didnt say the season was over




you miss misunderstood me plzs look back at my post and see what i siad
Fairly fresh Ophelia pass by TRMM
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
sorry guys but the 2011 season wasnt the "it" season.. we still have october so lets see what that brings.


Lol no apology necessary. 2011's brought enough.


Hopefully 2012 will be a little bit more lax than 2010 and 2011. Planet's gotta calm down at some point. I doubt it though -_-. Worse yet, anything slightly extreme or out of the ordinary in the mother nature department will be blown out of proportion (moreso than usually) and tied in with 12/21/12.
Quoting Tazmanian:




you miss misunderstood me plzs look back at my post and see what i siad



its all good Tazz
SAL is as low as I remember seeing it ever before.
Almost none at all anywhere except for a very small area off the coast of NW Africa.
Next to nothing, really.
Sahel region must be pretty moist.
Hilary~ Through the eye..
Quoting Tazmanian:



we got a lot of OCT and FL is at highest risk for hurricane land fall so by no means un less some how wind shear takes overe in oct FL i not out of the woods


Yep...

Just so you know...I am taking your advice to watch Oscar next year...I've already prepared my plywood for the windows painted "Oscar....uh...stay away" because I couldn't think of a better phrase with words that rhyme with Oscar....my neighbors think I am crazy but hey....

XD
Quoting wxgeek723:


Lol no apology necessary. 2011's brought enough.


Hopefully 2012 will be a little bit more lax than 2010 and 2011. Planet's gotta calm down at some point. I doubt it though -_-. Worse yet, anything slightly extreme or out of the ordinary in the mother nature department will be blown out of proportion (moreso than usually) and tied in with 12/21/12.


I know...that is why I got my Hurricane Oscar gear ready...I've even got "I survived Oscar" T-shirts ready too....XD
& Nesat while rapidly intensifying earlier today..

why do my commets keep geting re move from this blog


SST map looks rather strange today; the warm water appears to be reaching towards area between Vancouver Island and northern California. Maybe the PDO is shrinking?

In the unlikely event of an earthquake: CBC Documentaries

Meanwhile, Typhoon Nesat makes landfall in Luzon, its eyewall collapsing after its CDO rapidly expanded in size for several hours.
Well, I'm out.

Good night all.
651. JLPR2
Really interesting wind direction in the buoy at 15N 56W

N winds...

Maybe the MLC at the east edge of the convection got a shovel and made it to the surface.


Just trowing out my thoughts here, I have no real idea of what if going on in there. xD
Quoting Tazmanian:
why do my commets keep geting re move from this blog



i see none removed Tazz did i miss one?
Quoting Tazmanian:
why do my commets keep geting re move from this blog

????
I am seeing them...
Quoting JLPR2:
Really interesting wind direction in the buoy at 15N 56W

N winds...

Maybe the MLC at the east edge of the convection got a shovel and made it to the surface.


Just trowing out my thoughts here, I have no real idea of what if going on in there. xD

Ophelia is a tropical cyclone right now, simple as that. :P

Really, good night all. (:
Quoting Tazmanian:
why do my commets keep geting re move from this blog

Maybe you 'poofed' yourself LOL.
657. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ophelia is a tropical cyclone right now, simple as that. :P

Really, good night all. (:


It cant be that simple. *pulls hair* LOL!

Night!
Quoting pottery:

Maybe you 'poofed' yourself LOL.




LOL
Thanks for the Nesat's, Skye!
Very nice.
660. JLPR2
Also. It is getting ready for D-max.

Little cells of convection popping up around the system.

Quoting pottery:

Maybe you 'poofed' yourself LOL.
hehehe....that's what I was thinking.
Seriously, with all that poofing I thought maybe he poofed himself by mistake.
.
.
If so Taz....just go ahead and remove yourself from your ignore list.
Quoting will40:



she put me out of my home for 5 days


Ouch! From what I understood...folks from I-95 down east...especially the coast...got hammered with Irene...

Meanwhile I am thankful that Raleigh where I live (not that far west of I-95) goes unscathed again...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Ouch! From what I understood...folks from I-95 down east...especially the coast...got hammered with Irene...

Meanwhile I am thankful that Raleigh where I live (not that far west of I-95) goes unscathed again...


yes im on Emerald Isle and when they say go i go lol
Quoting JLPR2:
Also. It is getting ready for D-max.

Little cells of convection popping up around the system.



Ophelia...90% chance of regeneration if I was in charge of the tropical weather outlook...good night all....
file:///C:/Users/sammy/Downloads/psyduck.png
Crazy Hurricane Season Huh?
Typhoon Nesat at Manila Bay.. Is that CycloneOz tied to a coconut tree?

Quoting Skyepony:
Typhoon Nesat at Manila Bay.. Is that CycloneOz tied to a coconut tree?




lmao Sky
Quoting will40:


yes im on Emerald Isle and when they say go i go lol


Did your home go unscathed when u returned?
Quoting Skyepony:
Typhoon Nesat at Manila Bay.. Is that CycloneOz tied to a coconut tree?

POST Six-Sixty-Six
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Did your home go unscathed when u returned?


shingles gone and bigg trees down but none hit house
Quoting will40:


shingles gone and bigg trees down but none hit house


I remember one lad on here suggested that Ophelia 2005 should have been retired because she tore off a WHOLE SHINGLE...Irene 2011 should be retired too....LOL

Actually in seriousness, Irene does have a shot of retirement....good riddance to that name anyway....

Good night!
Good evening.
The headline of this blog says "Ophelia dies" and it was posted at 8:07 this morning.
She does not look Dead to me right now.
Amazing!
Quoting Skyepony:
Typhoon Nesat at Manila Bay.. Is that CycloneOz tied to a coconut tree?


no one wants to be in a cat 3. hope those people doing alright
Quoting Skyepony:
Typhoon Nesat at Manila Bay.. Is that CycloneOz tied to a coconut tree?



I think it's Gilligan!
seems the MLC on Phillipe is pushed to the SE, cuz you can clearly see half of the LLC on the NW side of the convection...totaly agree with the NHC's intensity

doesmt matter anyways aint gonna hit land lol
Ex-Ophelia, or Pre-Ophelia, or whatever it is, remains at 60% at 11:00.
Quoting pottery:
Ex-Ophelia, or Pre-Ophelia, or whatever it is, remains at 60% at 11:00.


waiting for recon tomorrow to much mistakes from NHC they don't need more bloopers!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I remember one lad on here suggested that Ophelia 2005 should have been retired because she tore off a WHOLE SHINGLE...Irene 2011 should be retired too....LOL

Actually in seriousness, Irene does have a shot of retirement....good riddance to that name anyway....

Good night!


I'm pretty confident that Irene will be retired, both on the death toll and the damage. Also quite confident the replacement name will be Irena, based on Katia for Katrina and Rina for Rita...

Personally, I'd like to see Hurricane Imelda. "By God, it's raining shoes!" :-)


Looked like it had more vorticity when it first came off the coast. Had some low flying clouds from the south with some rain late morning in Melbourne. It's wanting to. I think that wanna be Great Lakes 'Cane will keep it in check.



Quoting bluenosedave:


I'm pretty confident that Irene will be retired, both on the death toll and the damage. Also quite confident the replacement name will be Irena, based on Katia for Katrina and Rina for Rita...

Personally, I'd like to see Hurricane Imelda. "By God, it's raining shoes!" :-)

That would be bad in the Atl.
It would be a disaster in the Pacific.
The people in the Philipines would be Horrified!

:):))
Looked to see what Masters had for his local weather, see what he's catching off this. Noticed his is now set to Annette Island, Alaska..

Quoting Tazmanian:
why do my commets keep geting re move from this blog


I see you just fine. ... You are the short guy, right?
Quoting pottery:

That would be bad in the Atl.
It would be a disaster in the Pacific.
The people in the Philipines would be Horrified!

:):))


Oh, for sure, that could never be a WPAC storm name. It was retired there a long time ago. ;-)
Quoting Skyepony:
Looked to see what Masters had for his local weather, see what he's catching off this. Noticed his is now set to Annette Island, Alaska..


Low 50's, and rain for the next 4 days....
Hope he is having a Great Time!
Quoting bluenosedave:


Oh, for sure, that could never be a WPAC storm name. It was retired there a long time ago. ;-)

LOL !

Still no rain for us here, and nothing in the ITCZ to suggest that is going to change soon.
Good weather for Star Gazing though....
688. JLPR2
Quoting bluenosedave:


I'm pretty confident that Irene will be retired, both on the death toll and the damage. Also quite confident the replacement name will be Irena, based on Katia for Katrina and Rina for Rita...

Personally, I'd like to see Hurricane Imelda. "By God, it's raining shoes!" :-)


I would like to see the name Inga in an Atlantic list. XD
It was used once, but never officially retired.
Link


Actual



6 hours ago...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ophelia is a tropical cyclone right now, simple as that. :P

Really, good night all. (:
She would have been a cyclon by now if HH wouldn't called of today's flight, to veryfied it, as simple as that.
Quoting BDADUDE:
I'm not a fan of casters.
You are probably a fan of the downcaster, both extremes are bad. Just try to be objective, is the way to be the bestcaster! ;)
Quoting JLPR2:
Maybe Ophelia's MLC is taking over... again.



Besides that I have no explanation as to why the convection moved to the south, a little more than 2 degrees of latitude from the LLC. O.o
Does anybody knows where is the is the alleged low level Circulation?
Ophelia has sucked all our wind away here in the northern most Leeward Island for the last 2 days. Air is very hot. Was also hot in the sea today, water is the most warmest I have ever felt in years, did not even cool me down, uncomfortable. Extremely warm 0-5ft down, then a bit cooler below that, but not much.
Quoting Tazmanian:
why do my commets keep geting re move from this blog
Maybe people are wising up. Time for a makeover.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
She would have been a cyclon by now if HH wouldn't called of today's flight, to veryfied it, as simple as that.


take it easy not to soon
697. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Does anybody knows where is the is the alleged low level Circulation?


RAMSDIS last update gives us a nice observation inside the convection, probably a ship. West winds at 16N.

And guided by that I'll say the LLC should finally establish itself at 17-18N.

Seems the LLC caught by the ASCAT pass has been modified a bit by Ophelia.
Ophelia is back - looks like a tropical storm again. Morning pass will tell more and a flight may be scheduled to check out the system. This looks a lot better than any storm yet this year in the same position.

For those of you who like RadioHead they are on Comedy Central



Last frames show whole system rotating

Link
Okay, so that sprouting of storm front off the west coast of florida was similar to the same patterns over land - Sudden, powerful, brief, and transient; it was cool to watch and a novelty - Out of the normal for me anyway. I'd just never seen that type of development originating over a large body of water; it would seem to me that formation over warm water adjacent to land would be more likely than originating over land!

I suppose if one lives long enough, one will see anything and everything... Duh-h-h-h-h.

I love this kind of carryin' on!
Quoting JLPR2:


RAMSDIS last update gives us a nice observation inside the convection, probably a ship. West winds at 16N.

And guided by that I'll say the LLC should finally establish itself at 17-18N.

Seems the LLC caught by the ASCAT pass has been modified a bit by Ophelia.
Thank you. Yes, and is seems to be consolidating the COC between 17-18, close to 59 west, it seems, stationary, probably moving slightly westward, right?
704. JLPR2
Looks like Philippe's LLC is now under the convection again.

Quoting HuracanTaino:
Thank you. Yes, and is seems to be consolidating the COC between 17-18, close to 59 west, it seems, stationary, probably moving slightly westward, right?


Oh no.... Not over Guadalupe... noooooooooo....
706. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Thank you. Yes, and is seems to be consolidating the COC between 17-18, close to 59 west, it seems, stationary, probably moving slightly westward, right?


Yep, should move slowly westward/WNW and then turn to the N, NE when the high breaks up due to that front off the US East coast.

But we will have to see how fast and if it is indeed going to happen.
What a big Spinning Wheel - We have to wait for the Timing to pick up Ophelia

708. MTWX
Quoting sunlinepr:
What a big Spinning Wheel


A surefire way to tell fall is here!
I just realized i'm the only reliable forecast blogger that does not have a pic of himself up. Maybe i'll change that soon.
710. JLPR2
Quoting Drakoen:
I just realized i'm the only reliable forecast blogger that does not have a pic of himself up. Maybe i'll change that soon.


Ha! Random thought, but yeah. XD

711. JLPR2
Not the most impressive looking disturbance, but decent.


Convection is waning a bit.
I knew this season was pretty much over with when the leaves started dropping and changing color in the month of August. Going to be in the low 40's in the foothills and upper 30's in the Appalachians this weekend.
The pattern looks more like November out there. Shear is going to be picking up here on out with 20-50kts as far S as the Caribbean. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't even see a minimal hurricane for the rest of the season.
Too much shear for anything to survive in the Atlantic. This has been a strange season.
70% chance
Lol the NHC says the Low is NORTH EAST of the N Leewards!!! I can't see anything there.... the Low is east south east of them...
Quoting sunlinepr:


We will have a better vision in the morning
719. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:


We will have a better vision in the morning


Yeah.
Let's see what we wake up to.


27/0545 UTC 17.9N 58.5W T1.0/1.0 OPHELIA
Quoting MTWX:

A surefire way to tell fall is here!
maybe an early winter also for you folks
721. sotv
The Press Association

Floods as typhoon hits Philippines
(UKPA) – 24 minutes ago
Residents in Manila have waded through waist-deep floodwater, dodging branches and flying debris as a powerful typhoon sent surging waves as tall as palm trees crashing over seawalls and submerging entire areas of the Philippines capital.
At least seven people have been killed, most of them in metropolitan Manila, which was already soaked by heavy monsoon rains ahead of Typhoon Nesat's arrival and where the old town areas by the bay suffered their worst flooding in decades.
Pounding rain obscured the view of anyone on the streets as soldiers and police scrambled to evacuate thousands of people in low-lying areas, where rivers and the sea spilled into shanties, hospitals, upmarket hotels and even the seaside US Embassy compound.
"It's flooded everywhere. We don't have a place to go for shelter. Even my motorcycle got filled with water," said motorist Ray Gonzales, one of thousands stranded by fast-rising floodwater.
The massive flooding came exactly a day after the sprawling, coastal city of 12 million held commemorations for the nearly 500 people killed during a 2009 cyclone, which dumped a month's rainfall in just 12 hours.
Typhoon Nesat hit ashore before dawn in eastern provinces and headed inland just north of Manila with up to an inch of rain per hour, half that of the storm two years ago, said government forecaster Samuel Duran.
The geography of the archipelago makes it a welcome mat for about 20 storms and typhoons forming in the Pacific each year but the latest onslaught still caught many by surprise.
In all, authorities ordered more than 100,000 people across the country to shelter from Typhoon Nesat's rains, winds of 75mph (120kph) and gusts of up to 93mph (150kph) - enough to bend street signs.
Along Manila's historic baywalk, cars and buses were stuck and residents struggled through floodwater as waves washed over the seawall, turning a six-lane highway into a huge brown river. Pavements and entrances to buildings were swamped and vehicles stranded along narrow streets.
Manila Hospital moved patients from its ground floor, where water was neck-deep, spokeswoman Evangeline Morales said. Hospital generators were flooded and the building had been without power since early morning. Emergency workers evacuated river areas in the city that are notorious for flooding.
Copyright © 2011 The Press Association. All rights reserved.
Right now 2011 is a below average season with an ACE index of 78. An average season is considered 93. Let's put that into perspective. Hurricane Ivan's ACE index alone was 70 or so....almost the entire 2011 season. This season has a very good possibility to be one of the biggest busts of all time if October isn't active.
Good morning to all, sundry, and anybody else out there.

Just getting that early morning coffee fix... along with the TS wx fix....


Quoting wunderweatherman123:
sorry guys but the 2011 season wasnt the "it" season.. we still have october so lets see what that brings.
With 16 named systems so far, I think this season should have been "it". I know people are complaining that they're all wussy systems with no umph to them, but consider what our season would have been like without the adverse conditions.

We'd still have had the 16 storms; the set up in late July, all of August, and the early part of Sept would have favoured recurvature near or over some land mass, with possible later impacts to the Canadian Maritimes, and warm waters would have provided fuel for potential major hurricane development.

OK, that would have been fascinating to watch, I agree. However, in the REAL world, I'd rather take the season we actually got.... 16, 3, 2. [Actually, 16, 0, 0, would have been more interesting, recordwise... lol]

Morning Baha and Robert. Glad to see Texas had/has rain. And some of it might get to me. Mid 90s again today, obviously an early Fall isn't happening yet here.
Quoting robert88:
Right now 2011 is a below average season with an ACE index of 78. An average season is considered 93. Let's put that into perspective. Hurricane Ivan's ACE index alone was 70 or so....almost the entire 2011 season. This season has a very good possibility to be one of the biggest busts of all time if October isn't active.
lol is not all about Cat 5 hurracanes, this year has been 1 of the most wettest years for PR with 3 affecting us -_- Last year was big on hurracanes but with 1 affected land... almost none. Irene will be remember by many trust me. We still have the whole October to worry about, with systems in the carb those will probably hit land too thats even more flooding.
Quoting pottery:
SAL is as low as I remember seeing it ever before.
Almost none at all anywhere except for a very small area off the coast of NW Africa.
Next to nothing, really.
Sahel region must be pretty moist.
They prolly had a good growing season there this year.

Quoting pottery:
The headline of this blog says "Ophelia dies" and it was posted at 8:07 this morning.
She does not look Dead to me right now.
Amazing!
It should have said, "Ophelia dies... But NOT FOR LONG!!!!!!!".....

lol
Quoting Drakoen:
I just realized i'm the only reliable forecast blogger that does not have a pic of himself up. Maybe i'll change that soon.
LOL.... that would be cool...

Quoting BahaHurican:
With 16 named systems so far, I think this season should have been "it". I know people are complaining that they're all wussy systems with no umph to them, but consider what our season would have been like without the adverse conditions.

We still have had the 16 storms; the set up in late July, all of August, and the early part of Sept would have favoured recurvature near or over some land mass, with possible later impacts to the Canadian Maritimes, and warm waters would have provided fuel for potential major hurricane development.

OK, that would have been fascinating to watch, I agree. However, in the REAL world, I'd rather take the season we actually got.... 16, 3, 2. [Actually, 16, 0, 0, would have been more interesting, recordwise... lol]


Agreed. It's only the last week of September, and this year will already go down in record books as having the greatest number of tropical storms that failed to become hurricanes with 13--a number surpassing 2005, which didn't reach 12 until December 31. If that's not great fodder for future forecasting models, I don't know what is. (And, yes, many will say that's only because the NHC has somehow jumped the gun and named storms they shouldn't have. But if that charge is leveled at them this year, it has to be leveled against other recent years, too--including 2005. Even this year's often kicked around Jose gathered more ACE than three of 2005's named systems, and this year's Ophelia has already gathered more ACE than 11 of that year's storms.)
Quoting robert88:
Right now 2011 is a below average season with an ACE index of 78. An average season is considered 93. Let's put that into perspective. Hurricane Ivan's ACE index alone was 70 or so....almost the entire 2011 season. This season has a very good possibility to be one of the biggest busts of all time if October isn't active.
Above average numbers, well below average ACE [so far, and hope it stays that way]. Reminds me of 2007, except without the cat 5s running into CA...



"L" for Low
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning Baha and Robert. Glad to see Texas had/has rain. And some of it might get to me. Mid 90s again today, obviously an early Fall isn't happening yet here.
Mornin' aislin... sure hope some of the rain does get to u.... it's been a long dry spell for TX...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Agreed. It's only the last week of September, and this year will already go down in record books as having the greatest number of tropical storms that failed to become hurricanes with 13--a number surpassing 2005, which didn't reach 12 until December 31. If that's not great fodder for future forecasting models, I don't know what is.
Much agreed. I am one of those who believe the only benefit of the 2005 season was to improve track forecasting. Maybe 2011 will help us improve intensity.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Agreed. ......(And, yes, many will say that's only because the NHC has somehow jumped the gun and named storms they shouldn't have. But if that charge is leveled at them this year, it has to be leveled against other recent years, too--including 2005. Even this year's often kicked around Jose gathered more ACE than three of 2005's named systems, and this year's Ophelia has already gathered more ACE than 11 of that year's storms.)
My point is that NHC definitely DIDN'T jump the gun on these things; I'd say about 6 of the 16 systems "underperformed". IOW, given what conditions were expected/interpreted to be, we should have gotten hurricanes, including some majors, out of a whole bunch more storms. What we didn't account 4 was the remarkable stability of the atmosphere, and later, more ULLs than expected [though why we didn't expect the ubiquitous ULL N of PR I don't know]. I don't believe NHC called systems that weren't TC or at least subtropical.
Geez.... it's 6:25... I gotta run!

I'll check in later, if at all possible... Ya'll have a great day!
morning all.
ophelia 70% as of 2 a.m.
Link
Hmm O_o
Quoting Chicklit:
morning all.
ophelia 70% as of 2 a.m.
Link

Waiting for that wave S of Cuba to start spinning.
e cen fl. how humid is it islander over there?. hum islander101010 says 'its so humid even though it has not rained in a few days not a drop mushrooms are still popping up all over'.
Anybody know how long that big pin-wheel has been spinning in the central US?
After crossing the philipenes as a 3, nesat has weakened to a 2 and could maintain or restrengthen itself before making landfall in china. also behind nesat is a td which is expected to become a cat 2 typhoon as it moves westward north of the philipenes south of tawian
Good morning all.

Ex-Ophelia is looking very well this morning, and is likely very close to being a tropical cyclone again, if not now. Also...look at its position. If I were the National Hurricane Center, I would issue Tropical Storm Warnings for the northern Lesser Antilles.

80%/90% at 8AM IMO...

Philippe may not be with is much longer, despite what the official forecast says; he's highly-sheared, his CoC is exposed for all the world--or at least all the satellites--to see, and all decent convection has been blasted off to the east. But even if he's on his death bed, he's at least managed to break into the top eight so far as ACE is concerned with 2.22; that puts him just ahead of Arlene and right behind Cindy:

Philippe
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Anybody know how long that big pin-wheel has been spinning in the central US?
another sign of global warming?
Quoting pottery:
The headline of this blog says "Ophelia dies" and it was posted at 8:07 this morning.
She does not look Dead to me right now.
Amazing!

As Mark Twain once said, "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated." (I hope it was Mark Twain - if it was Simon and Garfunkle again I'm doomed)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Ex-Ophelia is looking very well this morning, and is likely very close to being a tropical cyclone again, if not now. Also...look at its position. If I were the National Hurricane Center, I would issue Tropical Storm Warnings for the northern Lesser Antilles.

80%/90% at 8AM IMO...

Dominica Guadaloupe and Antigua all reporting west winds. Martinique reporting ssw winds.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271148
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 735 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...CENTERED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Ex-Ophelia is up to 80% chance, should see it classified at 5PM this afternoon.

Recon flies at 2PM.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...CENTERED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

I'm tired with NHC saying the center is ENE of the Islands...
most of that mess is east of the Leewards
What is the blob in the BOC ?
Good Morning.
Another hot and dry one here. Hazy.
Quoting TropicTraveler:

As Mark Twain once said, "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated." (I hope it was Mark Twain - if it was Simon and Garfunkle again I'm doomed)


Maybe it was Winston Churchill, just to make matters more confusing....
LOL
Quoting islander101010:
e cen fl. how humid is it islander over there?. hum islander101010 says 'its so humid even though it has not rained in a few days not a drop mushrooms are still popping up all over'.
lmao did you eat some???
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Anybody know how long that big pin-wheel has been spinning in the central US?
4 DAYS and we still got 4 more days to go bfore it gets absorb by another system coming down from the north hook up and give us a blast of cool air then it moves along after that
764. BVI
Quoting rkay1:
Who cares, either way it will not impact CONUS.



Us in the islands care if it intensifies and we suddenly have a TS on our doorstep, as hard as this may be for you the USA is not the be all and end all of the world!
EX ophelia should be interesting to watch today. I think the NHC will have to give up with their current center position... LLC will probably consolidate south.

Erratically moving systems are nearly impossible to forecast as regards track... I perfectly remember hurricane Lenny which was supposed to move NE but was heading SE instead over the N Leewards..
Quoting BVI:


Us in the islands care if it intensifies and we suddenly have a TS on our doorstep, as hard as this may be for you the USA is not the be all and end all of the world!
not to mention some of us are technically part of the US
Link

Intense rains
768. BVI
Quoting melaniestx:
not to mention some of us are technically part of the US


Indeed, good point!! where are you? I am in Tortola
Quoting BVI:


Us in the islands care if it intensifies and we suddenly have a TS on our doorstep, as hard as this may be for you the USA is not the be all and end all of the world!

The adults on here know that, of course; 'tis only the trolls who have a difficult time grasping such obvious concepts. ;-)

Nesat is definitely giving the Philippines a hard time; parts of Manila Bay are seeing their worst flooding in decades, at least a dozen lives have been lost, and more is on the way.
AL, 16, 2011092700, 185N, 591W, 25, 1010, LO
AL, 16, 2011092706, 185N, 593W, 25, 1010, LO
AL, 16, 2011092712, 185N, 595W, 25, 1010, LO
Hey guys, im back online, saw moderate chaos near my house.Saw a nearby metal billboard scraped and a roof blown away, but I'm lucky that i'm safe.
Good morning all. It is a bright and sunny day here in the keys. Thank goodness!

I heard this morning that Key West got 4.8 inches of rain yesterday. How can 4.8 inches turn into 3-4 feet of pooling rain?!? I know, concrete and buildings is the answer.

There is a picture on the front page of the Citizen today showing three tourists swimming across Front street. Don't those people realize that there is sewer, gasoline, oil, and all kinds of nasty stuff in that water. Bad enough you have to wade through it, but to put your face down near it is asking for trouble! As the saying goes "Only in Key West" LOL. I hope everyone has a good day today.
Is it my imagination, or does Ophelia have a mind of her own? Anyone have any wild ideas about this one?

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
lmao did you eat some???

lol. it's like a hurricane in your head.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Is it my imagination, or does Ophelia have a mind of her own? Anyone have any wild ideas about this one?

if for some bizzarre reason ophilia should regenerate it will head north out to sea no worries
Just a note about something others have experienced "post-hurricane", there are noticeably fewer birds around. Just this morning I hear and see the first Mockingbird in our area, since the storm. They are normally ubiquitous.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Even most of Florida will get a taste of Fall this weekend!!!
this was a season that could have been devastating....if conditions were different and steering cuurents different with the level of activity and the amount of waves that spun into a closed low things could have been very different....I wonder if researchers will let us know what it was that kept it all at bay...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 16, 2011092700, 185N, 591W, 25, 1010, LO
AL, 16, 2011092706, 185N, 593W, 25, 1010, LO
AL, 16, 2011092712, 185N, 595W, 25, 1010, LO


<---------------------------------------------- !!!!!!!!!!
No updates from crownweather this AM. I think no one knows what to do with ex ophelia lol
I certainly hope the tropics do not become active in the central and w caribbean as is being projected around mid october.

I live in florida and am going overseas. hope my flight will be ok!
The Hummingbirds have been swarming the feeders in our yard this week, that is usually the behavior we see before the first real cold front hits our area just South of Houston, Tx.  We could try blaming the drought as well as we have way more hummers than we have seen in past years.
Is ex Ophelia trying to re-develop near 16.5n 59.0w?

Since exOphelia's (82.1degrees)eastward center relocation of 159miles(256kilometres) to 18.8n58.6w...

(See the previous mapping for 26Sept_6pmGMT for a more explanatory overall view along with other details)
18.9n59.0w, 19.0n59.4w had been re-evaluated&altered to
19.1n58.9w, 19.4n59.2w, 19.6n59.6w, 19.7n59.9w which were re-evaluated&altered for exOphelia's_12pmGMT_ATCF
18.6n58.8w, 18.6n58.9w, 18.5n59.1w, 18.5n59.3w, 18.5n59.5w are now the most recent positions.
Starting with the center relocation on 26Sept_6amGMT and ending 27Sept_12pmGMT

The 5 eastern line-segments represent exOphelia's path.
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 27Sept_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
exOphelia's travel-speed was 2.2mph(3.5k/h) on a heading of 270degrees(W)
exOphelia was headed toward passage over TheBaths,ViginGorda,BritishVirginIslands.

Copy&paste bbq, 18.8n58.6w-18.6n58.8w, 18.6n58.8w-18.6n58.9w, 18.6n58.9w-18.5n59.1w, 18.5n59.1w-18.5n59.3w, 18.5n59.3w-18.5n59.5w, vij, 18.5n59.3w-18.427n64.44w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info*.

* BBQ is on the map solely as a fix to a peculiarity in the GCMapper's map-scale program.
Delete bbq and you'll see what I mean.
Quoting fireflymom:
The Hummingbirds have been swarming the feeders in our yard this week, that is usually the behavior we see before the first real cold front hits our area just South of Houston, Tx.  We could try blaming the drought as well as we have way more hummers than we have seen in past years.

hummingbird caster....that is a first. ;)

backwards flow in SWFL for the 3rd straight day....Muggy and miserable.
has the blog officially jumped the shark?