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Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2011

Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks for update doc
happy oct 1st!!,thanks doc,looks like florida gets away unscathed again this yr!!!
no that may not be correct

west south carb got plans
Great update - two nice hurricanes to photograph and neither one hitting the U.S. Mainland or any other populated area - at least not any time soon. In North Carolina the air is crisp, the leaves are starting to turn, and it feels like a fabulous fall day. Great to be alive and enjoying it.
Reply#2 So far anyway.

Hopefully for the entire season. Yes, I live in FL but am not a FL wishcaster by any means. As far as I'm concerned if FL never saw another hurricane again it would be fine with me.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no that may not be correct

west south carb got plans

The East South Carb could use some clouds.....
Point your Machine down here, please.
Thanks Doc.
Philippe looks happy.
I think we will probaly see tropical devlopment in the SW carrb in the coming weeks the GFS has been the best model this year in picking up on future storm also given the weakeness we have seen in the HIGH would not be suprise if the system track NE out of the carrb
Quoting pottery:

The East South Carb could use some clouds.....
Point your Machine down here, please.
hey pottery how ya doing good i hope

sw nw carb will fire up could be a couple of big powerhouses there we will see soon
Ophelia sure is a tough, tight little bugger, while her brother Philippe never had a chance. Either way, two insignificant systems who's effects will be far from the U.S.

Despite using the "P" storm already on the 1st of October, what a rather uneventful, unexciting hurricane season to say the least. That's great news!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey pottery how ya doing good i hope

sw nw carb will fire up could be a couple of big powerhouses there we will see soon
Doing Good, thanks!
Hope you are as well.

Too hot and dry here for comfort.
Kind of worrying.
There is talk of an early dry season, but I hope that is not the case.
Meanwhile in Bermuda...
Cute (awwww). But too bad she'll pass near Bermuda. :(
Quoting pottery:
Doing Good, thanks!
Hope you are as well.

Too hot and dry here for comfort.
Kind of worrying.
There is talk of an early dry season, but I hope that is not the case.


... but I'm looking at an area of cloud/rain to the east, that might bring some relief tomorrow.
No matter what happens for the rest of the season I hope we discuss in the off-season what's caused the "different" type of hurricane seasons the last few years. We were going to do that last year but never quite got around to it.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
No matter what happens for the rest of the season I hope we discuss in the off-season what's caused the "different" type of hurricane seasons the last few years. We were going to do that last year but never quite got around to it.

I totally agree. It's been very different, something I don't recall witnessing in the past decade. We'll discuss the lack of vertical instability in the Atlantic, the increasing amounts of SAL in the middle levels of the atmosphere, and also the persistent dry air and vertical wind shear that are having these adverse affects on our Atlantic systems.

I'll get a hold of Aqua to ensure she makes a very "special" batch of those brownies we all love here at Wunderground.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
No matter what happens for the rest of the season I hope we discuss in the off-season what's caused the "different" type of hurricane seasons the last few years. We were going to do that last year but never quite got around to it.

Agreed!
But in reality there are only a couple of people on the blog that can discuss the Big Picture sensibly.

From time-to-time I try to introduce some ideas that I think would be interesting in a general way.
Not much info comes back.

Does not mean we should stop trying though.
And your question would be a good one to discuss.
Let's come back to it, as a Post Mortem!
Quoting HurricaneFelix:

I totally agree. It's been very different, something I don't recall witnessing in the past decade. We'll discuss the lack of vertical instability in the Atlantic, the increasing amounts of SAL in the middle levels of the atmosphere, and also the persistent dry air and vertical wind shear that are having these adverse affects on our Atlantic systems.

I'll get a hold of Aqua to ensure she makes a very "special" batch of those brownies we all love here at Wunderground.
Last year was plagued by SAL. This year however, is shear.
Quoting HurricaneFelix:

I totally agree. It's been very different, something I don't recall witnessing in the past decade. We'll discuss the lack of vertical instability in the Atlantic, the increasing amounts of SAL in the middle levels of the atmosphere, and also the persistent dry air and vertical wind shear that are having these adverse affects on our Atlantic systems.

I'll get a hold of Aqua to ensure she makes a very "special" batch of those brownies we all love here at Wunderground.

I thought that SAL was generally slight, this year?

(you see? One comment, and already we have dissention! Sorry 'bout that!!)
20. 7544
this year should be called the year of the trofs
Quoting pottery:

I thought that SAL was generally slight, this year?

(you see? One comment, and already we have dissention! Sorry 'bout that!!)

Pot, don't you know that's the sheer beauty of it. I won't accept your apology sir, because you don't have anything whatsoever to apologize for.

SAL was still a big player, especially for our very young invests that were trying to get their wheels rolling.

SAL and dry air = that's one heck of a deadly combination.
Quoting ackee:
I think we will probaly see tropical devlopment in the SW carrb in the coming weeks the GFS has been the best model this year in picking up on future storm also given the weakeness we have seen in the HIGH would not be suprise if the system track NE out of the carrb


Been hearing this for a month and so far nada. Storm developing there wouldn't make it anywhere North of Mexico with the weather pattern our friend Lee left behind.
Quoting HurricaneFelix:

Pot, don't you know that's the sheer beauty of it. I won't accept your apology sir, because you don't have anything whatsoever to apologize for.

SAL was still a big player, especially for our very young invests that were trying to get their wheels rolling.

SAL and dry air = that's one heck of a deadly combination.

Absolutely correct!
Quoting pottery:

The East South Carb could use some clouds.....
Point your Machine down here, please.
Pottery, looks like a decent wave in the Atlantic at 50W headed your general direction..slowly
Quoting superpete:
Pottery, looks like a decent wave in the Atlantic at 50W headed your general direction..slowly

Looking at that too, (see post 14)
Live in Hope, die in Despair.
That's what the Old Folk used to say, anyway.

heheheheh
It hasn't been so much a SAL year as a TAL year. Texas Air Layer.
TS Don could tell you how bad that was! ;)
Quoting pottery:

Absolutely correct!

Pot, another thing. It's not like the conditions where you are in Cayman (that's where are you right? i can't remember there or Jamaica) were even that hostile.

You put a wave there, and boom. That can explode in an instant. I love when storms literally explode, but just not near any land you know!
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
It hasn't been so much a SAL year as a TAL year. Texas Air Layer.
TS Don could tell you how bad that was! ;)

That's true as well.

But you know, I think we have reached the point where we put much too much faith in the WeatherGurus at the NHC and stuff.
Would be much better if we all got together and did some RainDances and Limbo and general Freaking out....

That used to work fine, you know.
Now, we expect a Computer to tell the clouds where to go and what to do?
It aint workin' !
Almost dry Conus... gettin cold

...EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA OBSERVED ON BERMUDA RADAR...
2:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 30.4°N 62.9°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: N at 21 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
I hope everyone is okay is Luzon, Phillipines this evening. It's almost 2am there,,pitch dark. I just hope recovery and rebuilding efforts go smoothly.
Quoting HurricaneFelix:

Pot, another thing. It's not like the conditions where you are in Cayman (that's where are you right? i can't remember there or Jamaica) were even that hostile.

You put a wave there, and boom. That can explode in an instant. I love when storms literally explode, but just not near any land you know!

Trinidad, 11n 61w.
Same story though!

And yes, the conditions are pretty good (STILL) all over the place.
But the dry air has been furious!

So, here is The Question...
Where is it coming from?????????
Quoting pottery:

Trinidad, 11n 61w.
Same story though!

And yes, the conditions are pretty good (STILL) all over the place.
But the dry air has been furious!

So, here is The Question...
Where is it coming from?????????

I know right! The great mystery! But the author of this blog entry will probably have some good insight into it soon enough. He's great.

Trinadad. Okay, I was close. lol
35. DDR
Quoting pottery:

The East South Carb could use some clouds.....
Point your Machine down here, please.

Hey pottery long time no see,just had a 1/2 inch here,don't worry by the looks of it the next 2-3 days we'll have plenty.
Quoting pottery:

That's true as well.

But you know, I think we have reached the point where we put much too much faith in the WeatherGurus at the NHC and stuff.
Would be much better if we all got together and did some RainDances and Limbo and general Freaking out....

That used to work fine, you know.
Now, we expect a Computer to tell the clouds where to go and what to do?
It aint workin' !


I might break something if I tried to limbo, but I'm all for the Rain Dances and Freaking out part! :D
Quoting HurricaneFelix:

I know right! The great mystery! But the author of this blog entry will probably have some good insight into it soon enough. He's great.

Trinadad. Okay, I was
close. lol

Hope so.
The dry air was not forecast, as far as I know.
And the dry air tends to increase the pressure gradients too, which works to give the developing systems some problems, by increasing winds around/in front of them.
Quoting DDR:

Hey pottery long time no see,just had a 1/2 inch here,don't worry by the looks of it the next 2-3 days we'll have plenty.

Hi, DDR.
I can see the clouds over you.....
Clear, hot and dry here.
Hearing thunder too....

Yep, looking forward to some rains from those clouds in the east.
I'm currently enjoying our totally non-dramatic weather here in Missouri.
Lower 60s, bright sunshine, comfy dewpoints in the 50s... ahhhh. Fall.

So nice after our extremes from the last three seasons with too much snow, then too many tornadoes, then too much heat.

Yep. This is good. :)
the cold front moving south in the gulf will need to be watched as well as the disturbance just east of the windward. closeby conus action should pick up soon
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I might break something if I tried to limbo, but I'm all for the Rain Dances and Freaking out part! :D

heheheh, 2 out of 3 is Great!
I'll pass on the Limbo too.
:)
Hi Hurricanefelix, I heard on the CBS evening news last night that in the Northern Phillipines, that Many people were still trapped on their roofs, waiting for help after the first Typhone went thru, and of course with this second one bearing down on them, they were in extreme danger. Don't know what happened to them. LT
Quoting DDR:

Hey pottery long time no see,just had a 1/2 inch here,don't worry by the looks of it the next 2-3 days we'll have plenty.

Just checked the temp here at home.
34.8C (95F) on the upstairs gallery....

That's too hot.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I might break something if I tried to limbo, but I'm all for the Rain Dances and Freaking out part! :D
The point is that computers and technology are possitives tools, but nothing is written on stone, and mother nature has its ways to do as she pleases...
Quoting HuracanTaino:
The point is that computers and technology are possitives tools, but nothing is written on stone, and mother nature has its ways to do as she pleases...

... with a little help from her friends (and enemies, too!)
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Hurricanefelix, I heard on the CBS evening news last night that in the Northern Phillipines, that Many people were still trapped on their roofs, waiting for help after the first Typhone went thru, and of course with this second one bearing down on them, they were in extreme danger. Don't know what happened to them. LT

OMG. How scary that must be knowing the water can be rising at any minute. And you can only be on your roof away from food and clean water for so long. I couldn't imagine a one-two punch with two successive intense storms. My heart goes to those living in fear and uncertainty.

And thanks for that update. It's good to know popular new outlets are covering that story. It just seems like sometimes you hear about it the day it's making landfall and then you don't hear anything else after that sometimes... And it makes you really wonder then.
area east of the windward islands , has some cyclonic turning near 12n 51 w. there is no mention of this feature any where in the tropical discussion. to me it is an area of disturbed weather within a surface trough. please for clarification.
Quoting stoormfury:
area east of the windward islands , has some cyclonic turning near 12n 51 w. there is no mention of this feature any where in the tropical discussion. to me it is an area of disturbed weather within a surface trough. please for clarification.

A little strange that there is no mention.
Looks like it will all drift North of us AGAIN, and leave us gasping in the Hot Dry weather.

Will see what tomorrow brings...
Beautiful system, probably a little stronger than indicated.



Good afternoon all.
Hi Pottery, doesn't this happen often in Trinidad, that is with you guys being located so far South, 11 degrees North, as you said? So many of these disturbences cross the islands North of you and even North of Barbadoes.
every model run ive seen shows 1007mb low in the SW carribean. things will be interesing next 10 days. also mjo has dark whites in the carribean. that is just insanely strong mjo pulse
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
every model run ive seen shows 1007mb low in the SW carribean. things will be interesing next 10 days. also mjo has dark whites in the carribean. that is just insanely strong mjo pulse

If that were to come to reailty, oh man...In any case, the statement by Dr. Masters saying that MJO won't return until the end of next week at least is very incorrect.

ASCAT found a few 45 knot wind barbs associated with Philippe, along with one 50 kt. barb.



Good day for ASCAT all together me thinks...



Why'd everyone get quiet when I came in...? :S
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why'd everyone get quiet when I came in...? :S


You'd figure a major hurricane out there would cause some interest, but I guess not.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Beautiful system, probably a little stronger than indicated.



Good afternoon all.
Yes, agree,probably stronger , but without HH recon to corroborate the information , we wont ever know if she ever reach cat. 4 or how close she got .
leaving the blog for you with all your insights
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why'd everyone get quiet when I came in...? :S

...because you're cursed.
LOL
Quoting pottery:

A little strange that there is no mention.
Looks like it will all drift North of us AGAIN, and leave us gasping in the Hot Dry weather.

Will see what tomorrow brings...
they said its part of the moonsoon trough on the last discussion
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

...because you're cursed.
LOL


Grrrr....lol.
monsoon trough??? that far north? it lloks more like the itcz
The feature at 10N , 51W has increassed some convection.I don't kmow what is going on,,since it isn't mention on NHC discussion. Why? If you look close, apparently something is going on at the surface...or is it me?
the area of disturbed weather esat of the windward islands looks more like a pertabation from the itcz
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Grrrr....lol.

Well, I answered your question.
Anyway, Philippe is firing some cold cloud tops.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
The feature at 10N , 51W has increassed some convection.I don't kmow what is going on,,since it isn't mention on NHC discussion. Why? If you look close, apparently something is going on at the surface...or is it me?

Just ITCZ convection, not going to develop.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
The feature at 10N , 51W has increassed some convection.I don't kmow what is going on,,since it isn't mention on NHC discussion. Why? If you look close, apparently something is going on at the surface...or is it me?


A little disturbance trying to strengthen, but almost nothing at the surface, for the moment.

Actually it's a little more complex than a simple disturbance, there is also a weak ULL in the area.
Looking at NOAA's Dvorak numbers Ophelia reached Cat 4. Something that also stands out in her record is she's been around for 10 days now..
H.Ophelia's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 30Sept_6pmGMT and ending 1Oct_6pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 1Oct_6pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 45.876n59.991w-YPS is the endpoint of the 1Oct_12pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 44.142n64.499w-YAW is the same for the 1Oct_6amGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 21.8mph(35.1k/h) on a heading of 2.6degrees(N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over WineHarbour,NovaScotia ~1days21hours from now

Copy&paste 44.142n64.499w-yaw, 45.876n59.991w-yps, 24.1n62.9w-25.5n63.0w, 25.5n63.0w-27.0n63.1w, 27.0n63.1w-28.5n62.9w, 28.5n62.9w-30.4n62.8w, 28.5n62.9w-45.037n61.85w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 1Oct_6pmGMT
One thing I've been wondering about, and it kind of fits in with the discussion on page One - earlier this year, we saw a TS all but obliterated by Texas' dry air. Does anyone think that with the drought predicted to last for 9 years, that we can expect a semi-permanent Texas Air Layer (TAL?) that will disrupt storms approaching the western GoM? I understand drought conditions exist there, and that some places have gotten less than 10 inches of rain, making it officially a desert - with the topsoil drying out, and blowing away, is this a possibility?
What an amazing hurricane.

Ophelia:


Philippe:


AOI:


They all look good in their respective categories.
the distubance east of the windwards has good 500mb and 250mb vorticity. all it needs now is something at the surface
Ophelia has a very nice eye.
Remember Ophelia before? Just a swirl with major displaced convection. Take a good look at her now!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why'd everyone get quiet when I came in...? :S
It's simple.Ophelia isn't affecting land nor is Phillipe(however you spell it;s name).
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's simple.Ophelia isn't affecting land nor is Phillipe(however you spell it;s name).


Philippe: One "l", two "p"'s.
Philippe is surprising me, holding itself together under so much shear.

Quoting JLPR2:
Philippe is surprising me, holding itself together under so much shear.


30-40 knots.
Hurricane Ophelia is developing an intense ring of convection around its eye...Not sure if this is just a brief cycle, or the storm is strengthening.

Philippe is now up too 65mph
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Ophelia is developing an intense ring of convection around its eye...Not sure if this is just a brief cycle, or the storm is strengthening.



Eye temp has risen too. Probably strengthening again.



I'm rooting for you Ophelia! XD
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...PHILIPPE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 49.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
If Phillipe makes it to 11 p.m. Sunday as a tropical storm he will have been continuously at tropical storm strength longer than any other storm in recent years.
Unless he gets to hurricane strength first!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...PHILIPPE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 49.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
Ophelia Could become a cat 4.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Ophelia Could become a cat 4.



Has the look but will they upgrade without recon or buoy confirmation? I'm thinking not.
Quoting petewxwatcher:


Has the look but will they upgrade without recon or buoy confirmation? I'm thinking not.

If it continues to build that ring of deep convection, yes, they will upgrade. I've noticed that is the basis for C4 status when a storm is in the middle of the Atlantic, aside from T-numbers.
Send recon out for at least ONE mission.
Quoting Tazmanian:
Philippe is now up too 65mph


Hey Taz, I'm thinking that we are going to see just 2-3 more storms. This early season cold front that has swept through the GOM has just about ended that chance of anything developing there. Wind sheer is screaming and the the air is really dry. I think we'll see one in the Caribbean (will either hang down there or move Northeast through Cuba and the Bahamas) and 1-2 out in the open Atlantic.

I think the chances of the U.S. getting a direct hit have gone way down.
ASPECTRE, let me ask you again, since I seem to have missed any previous reply the last time I asked. What meteorological purpose does this exercise serve? Plotting the straight line path of hurricane ignores any model or atmospheric conditions, so I fail to see the purpose of this.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If it continues to build that ring of deep convection, yes, they will upgrade. I've noticed that is the basis for C4 status when a storm is in the middle of the Atlantic, aside from T-numbers.


True when a hurricane is in the tropics, but I haven't seen them do that without confirmation in the temperate zone for a long time.

In 1978 they did some recon missions into hurricane Ella and found her to be a Cat 4 far to the north. They hadn't expected that at all. Ella became a Cat 4 at 38 N. I believe at the time it was the furthest north a hurricane had become a Cat 4.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 012034
TCDAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

OPHELIA HAS MAINTAINED ITS IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. BECAUSE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS OPHELIA REACHES COOLER WATERS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT OPHELIA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND.

OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO RECURVE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...OPHELIA SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED...BUT THE ENTIRE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD FOR THIS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND TAKES THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE EAST OF BERMUDA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON MONDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 31.6N 62.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 35.0N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 40.0N 60.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 45.0N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 48.0N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 50.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Sar2401 I like aspectre's projections. And the swells generated are much stronger along the right side of the straight line track. So it is useful.

And IMO the straight line projections are interesting.
The low here in Prattville, AL was 48 this morning. The temperature now (15:50) is only 72, after a high of 78. The humidity is also down to 30% with gusty ENE winds. Seems like this cold front has made a surprisingly large penetration into the deep South. Seems like this does not bode well for any TS formation in the GOM in the next week at least. Am I correct in this assumption? It would be nice to get (non-killer) tropical storm before the season ends since we, although not as bad as Texas, are also in the middle of a severe drought.
Pete, thanks for your information. I find them interesting from strictly a mapping point of view, but the wave heights will only be relevant if the storm actually follows that straight line.
I would say that the threat of a major hurricane in the north Gulf coast is much reduced by this cold front. Models hint at a west Caribbean hurricane forming 11-14 days out. If it forms. If it becomes a major. If it heads for the northern Gulf.

Even if all that comes to fruition I can't see a major retaining its strength all the way to the coast. Could be a Cat 1, and maaaaaybe a 2 if everything happened just right. I think the chance of anything beyond a Cat 1 is very low though.

Peninsular Florida still has a couple weeks to keep an eye out.
Quoting sar2401:
Pete, thanks for your information. I find them interesting from strictly a mapping point of view, but the wave heights will only be relevant if the storm actually follows that straight line.


Not quite true. The swells that have been generated in the last 6 hours will tend to stay east of the line. So the swells that hit the coast in 2 days are being generated now, and their path and size is being directed by the path as it is now.
The feature east of Barbados deserves invest status, continues to become better organize, quick.
Assuming that Ophelia survives as a tropical storm and strikes the Canadian Maritimes, won't this be the third year in a row they have been affected but a hurricane or tropical storm? Seems very unusual to me after 45 years of storm watching.
Quoting petewxwatcher:


Not quite true. The swells that have been generated in the last 6 hours will tend to stay east of the line. So the swells that hit the coast in 2 days are being generated now, and their path and size is being directed by the path as it is now.


Pete, OK, that makes sense. In this case, the wave heights should be mainly affecting open ocean but, as a former sailor, that would be good information if I was sailing east of Ophelia.
Quoting JLPR2:


Eye temp has risen too. Probably strengthening again.



I'm rooting for you Ophelia! XD


Looks like it could be another hurricane landfall in Newfoundland Canada, could be a really bad storm for them considering its strength right now.
107. JLPR2
Nice!
Quoting sar2401:
The low here in Prattville, AL was 48 this morning. The temperature now (15:50) is only 72, after a high of 78. The humidity is also down to 30% with gusty ENE winds. Seems like this cold front has made a surprisingly large penetration into the deep South. Seems like this does not bode well for any TS formation in the GOM in the next week at least. Am I correct in this assumption? It would be nice to get (non-killer) tropical storm before the season ends since we, although not as bad as Texas, are also in the middle of a severe drought.
I hope you get a tropical storm before season ends. Humidity here is 11 percent which is about the way it has been for months, south central texas is a desert now. Finally started Drought Stage 3 for water today, No more sprinklers, hand held hose with a sprayer that shuts off, no car washing or getting any water on sidewalks or streets etc. This will last a long time I have a feeling because I dont see us getting enough rain to get out of this status without something tropical next season or el nino which is not forecasted any time soon. I am so glad now that i have a smaller yard.
Quoting sar2401:
Assuming that Ophelia survives as a tropical storm and strikes the Canadian Maritimes, won't this be the third year in a row they have been affected but a hurricane or tropical storm? Seems very unusual to me after 45 years of storm watching.


Yes you are right...i live on the Avalon and we have seen plenty of this...
Quoting petewxwatcher:
I would say that the threat of a major hurricane in the north Gulf coast is much reduced by this cold front. Models hint at a west Caribbean hurricane forming 11-14 days out. If it forms. If it becomes a major. If it heads for the northern Gulf.

Even if all that comes to fruition I can't see a major retaining its strength all the way to the coast. Could be a Cat 1, and maaaaaybe a 2 if everything happened just right. I think the chance of anything beyond a Cat 1 is very low though.

Peninsular Florida still has a couple weeks to keep an eye out.


Temps in the GOM will be warmer than what we are currently seeing with Ophelia. The Carribean can support a cat5 hurrican and keep in mind that it does take time for these systems to wind down - see Irene over cooler water off the NE coast. If there is a front moving Southeastward that we could have a system moving towards the West coast of Florida quite fast like Wilma 2005.
111. Gorty
What's anyone's opinion on Phillippe? Will he hit the US and how strong will he get?
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I hope you get a tropical storm before season ends. Humidity here is 11 percent which is about the way it has been for months, south central texas is a desert now. Finally started Drought Stage 3 for water today, No more sprinklers, hand held hose with a sprayer that shuts off, no car washing or getting any water on sidewalks or streets etc. This will last a long time I have a feeling because I dont see us getting enough rain to get out of this status without something tropical next season or el nino which is not forecasted any time soon. I am so glad now that i have a smaller yard.


Yeah, it's dusty here, but nothing like what you guys in Texas have been going through. The farmers here really depend on summer rainfall from tropical storms, and we haven't had a decent rainmaker since 2005. It looks like some of the cotton will make ithis year. Last year, they just gave up and plowed it under.
Quoting GainesvilleGator:


Temps in the GOM will be warmer than what we are currently seeing with Ophelia. The Carribean can support a cat5 hurrican and keep in mind that it does take time for these systems to wind down - see Irene over cooler water off the NE coast. If there is a front moving Southeastward that we could have a system moving towards the West coast of Florida quite fast like Wilma 2005.


I was talking about the north gulf coast, like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama. I also said peninsular Florida has a few more weeks to keep an eye on things.
Quoting Gorty:
What's anyone's opinion on Phillippe? Will he hit the US and how strong will he get?

Hit the USA? Nah... How strong? Category 1.
Quoting JLPR2:
Philippe is surprising me, holding itself together under so much shear.

JLPR2 tell me your opinion on the system forming east of the islands, east of Barbados around 11N 51W...thanks
Glad that Ophelia is missing Bermuda.

Bermuda Radar Loop
Quoting Gorty:
What's anyone's opinion on Phillippe? Will he hit the US and how strong will he get?


It's hard to see Philippe hitting anywhere in the US. The current track would sure make you think it might have a chance, but the models are in such good agreement turning it north that it's hard to discount them. The models haven't been so good on intensity, but they've been mostly right on when it comes to track. I think the chance that Philippe will make it to a Cat 1 storm has increased over the past 12 hours though.
Quoting RickWPB:
Glad that Ophelia is missing Bermuda.

Bermuda Radar Loop


So am I. 2-3 days ago I never thought Ophelia would get this strong. 2 degrees further west and it would have been Fabian II.
Ophelia is probably 125-135mph right now.
Quoting sar2401:
Assuming that Ophelia survives as a tropical storm and strikes the Canadian Maritimes, won't this be the third year in a row they have been affected but a hurricane or tropical storm? Seems very unusual to me after 45 years of storm watching.


Newfoundland (not technically part of the Maritimes, but anyway) was hit last year by Igor at hurricane strength, and this year by Maria. That's the first time Newfoundland has been hit by hurricanes in consecutive years since reliable records, etc. Ophelia would be adding insult to injury.
122. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
JLPR2 tell me your opinion on the system forming east of the islands, east of Barbados around 11N 51W...thanks


Not much there yet, no surface reflection with it so nothing going on yet. Probably being enhanced by the ULL close by. Need to watch it since convection is persisting and see if it develops some 850mb vort, which would indicate something trying to form closer to the surface.

Looks like we'll have a Category 4 hurricane on our hands soon, T-numbers are rising and most are at or surpassing C4 strength now.
Ophelia spinning 130 miles away, we sit outside on our porch with 77 deg. and 15 knot wind enjoying the balmy evening.
We love hurricanes like this!

Last image before sunset.

Quoting sar2401:


Yeah, it's dusty here, but nothing like what you guys in Texas have been going through. The farmers here really depend on summer rainfall from tropical storms, and we haven't had a decent rainmaker since 2005. It looks like some of the cotton will make ithis year. Last year, they just gave up and plowed it under.
I have seen nothing around here, No hay, no cotton, no maize. A year ago crops looked pretty good but since we have had little to no rain the past 12 months nothing grew. I feel for the farmers and the animals big time. Until this year i never saw virga here, now that is basically all we get. Sucks to have heavy rain fall and not reach the ground just about every time, when it does fall you get a trace. I hate to be teased. LOL
A massive high centered over Virginia in 120-144 hours means the Caribbean needs to be watched closely starting October 7th. It's not that far away now.

128. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like we'll have a Category 4 hurricane on our hands soon, T-numbers are rising and most are at or surpassing C4 strength now.


Yeah, raw numbers at 6.5.

2011OCT01 211500 6.1 943.2/ -2.2 /117.4 6.1 6.5 6.5
Quoting Levi32:
A massive high centered over Virginia in 120-144 hours means the Caribbean needs to be watched closely starting October 7th. It's not that far away now.


Oh man!
130. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
A massive high centered over Virginia in 120-144 hours means the Caribbean needs to be watched closely starting October 7th. It's not that far away now.



What model is that?
Quoting JLPR2:


What model is that?


CMC, but it matters not because the high is there on every single model.
Quoting petewxwatcher:


I was talking about the north gulf coast, like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama. I also said peninsular Florida has a few more weeks to keep an eye on things.
What about going straight up Florida? It happened before, Hurricane Irene 1999.
Quoting Levi32:


CMC, but it matters not because the high is there on every single model.
What would the steering currents for that would be like? A Yucatan westward moving storm?
Quoting Levi32:
A massive high centered over Virginia in 120-144 hours means the Caribbean needs to be watched closely starting October 7th. It's not that far away now.


Levi, did you see how strong the GFS brings the MJO back in mid-October?
Quoting RussianWinter:
What would the steering currents for that would be like? A Yucatan westward moving storm?


It would depend on where a hypothetical storm forms. A formation out of the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean would have a better chance to go west into central America. The most likely path choice for a development within the 6-10 day window looks like it will be north to northeast towards Cuba and the Bahamas. Again though, that will depend on when and where we get development, if we do get it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Levi, did you see how strong the GFS brings the MJO back in mid-October?


Yes, it's finally on the move. This is why the Caribbean potential is now weeks later than I thought it would be.

2011OCT01 211500 6.1 943.2/ -2.2 /117.4 6.1 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.94 -67.18 EYE 26 IR 31.54 62.41 COMBO


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.2 6.2
01/1745 UTC 30.3N 62.7W T5.5/5.5 OPHELIA -- Atlantic

Final CIMSS T# is at 5.8 for Ophelia, or 110 knots. However, Adjusted and Raw T# are at 6.2, or Category 4 status. With the other ADT at 6.1, and the Final CIMSS ADT T# rising, we may see C4 Hurricane Ophelia soon. The latest SAB/TAFB numbers come out at 7:45 PM EDT...Those will be the deciding numbers.
138. Gorty
Wow, Sept. alone had 5 named storms! This year was very active!
Quoting JLPR2:


Not much there yet, no surface reflection with it so nothing going on yet. Probably being enhanced by the ULL close by. Need to watch it since convection is persisting and see if it develops some 850mb vort, which would indicate something trying to form closer to the surface.

Interesting, thank you.
Quoting Levi32:


It would depend on where a hypothetical storm forms. A formation out of the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean would have a better chance to go west into central America. The most likely path choice for a development within the 6-10 day window looks like it will be north to northeast towards Cuba and the Bahamas. Again though, that will depend on when and where we get development, if we do get it.
i see you said bahamas/cuba but not florida. will florida be protected? :)
Quoting Levi32:


It would depend on where a hypothetical storm forms. A formation out of the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean would have a better chance to go west into central America. The most likely path choice for a development within the 6-10 day window looks like it will be north to northeast towards Cuba and the Bahamas. Again though, that will depend on when and where we get development, if we do get it.

I've asked two times, and this will make three, lol. What about intensity and the conditions available in the Western Caribbean in 6-10 days from now.
143. Gorty
Now people knows why two years are not the same... 2011 was similar to 2005 for activity but the steering pattern has been quite different and the intensity of cyclones was also different.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i see you said bahamas/cuba but not florida. will florida be protected? :)


I didn't say that.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've asked two times, and this will make three, lol. What about intensity and the conditions available in the Western Caribbean in 6-10 days from now.


I don't recall you asking me before, but sorry if I missed it. Upper-level conditions shouldn't be that bad in the heart of the Caribbean, especially as the MJO gradually returns. Things become more questionable as we head northward, as wind shear may or may not become an issue, depending on how the subtropical jet is behaving at the time, and depending on how convectively beefy of a development we might get.
Quoting Levi32:


I didn't say that.





I don't recall you asking me before, but sorry if I missed it. Upper-level conditions shouldn't be that bad in the heart of the Caribbean, especially as the MJO gradually returns. Things become more questionable as we head northward, as wind shear may or may not become an issue, depending on how the subtropical jet is behaving at the time, and depending on how beefy of a development we might get.

Thanks.

Its been over the past few weeks that I've asked.
Quoting Levi32:


I didn't say that.





I don't recall you asking me before, but sorry if I missed it. Upper-level conditions shouldn't be that bad in the heart of the Caribbean, especially as the MJO gradually returns. Things become more questionable as we head northward, as wind shear may or may not become an issue, depending on how the subtropical jet is behaving at the time, and depending on how convectively beefy of a development we might get.

my bad. also what is causing all the shear in the gulf now and can we discount a major affecting the US or is early to mid october still a possibility for this to occur?
Quoting wunderweatherman123:

my bad. also what is causing all the shear in the gulf now and can we discount a major affecting the US or is early to mid october still a possibility for this to occur?


Wind shear naturally increases in the Gulf of Mexico during October, but there have been numerous major hurricane strikes on the U.S. during that month, mostly on Florida.


See Levi, this is what happens when you leave the blog for a while...You get bombarded with questions :P
October is not a cozy month. These are all major hurricanes that formed in October and blasted Florida and areas eastward.

Quoting Levi32:


Wind shear naturally increases in the Gulf of Mexico during October, but there have been numerous major hurricane strikes on the U.S. during that month, mostly on Florida.
alright thanx and a good example of that is wilma when you see a storm stall in the carribean and then get launched NE into florida. those are still posiblities. also can you tell me "how" majors from the carribean maintain cat 3 or higher status until landfall in florida because in many of these situation they have the subtropical jet against them
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


See Levi, this is what happens when you leave the blog for a while...You get bombarded with questions :P
when levi is here the blog is more interesting :P
A more complete picture of October major hurricanes:

Quoting wunderweatherman123:
alright thanx and a good example of that is wilma when you see a storm stall in the carribean and then get launched NE into florida. those are still posiblities. also can you tell me "how" majors from the carribean maintain cat 3 or higher status until landfall in florida because in many of these situation they have the subtropical jet against them


The jet is not always in the way, and truly deep tropical systems out of the Caribbean monsoonal circulation like Wilma can fend off a lot of shear before they succumb to it.
Wow blog isvery quite for an almost cat 4 in the Atl.
I tried to catch fog this morning, but I mist it.

lol ;)
156. JLPR2
Eye keeps warming and getting better defined.
A miracle: NO RAIN TODAY!!
Quoting JLPR2:
Eye keeps warming and getting better defined.

I hope it is declared a Category 4.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2

2011OCT01 214500 6.2 940.5/ -2.3 /119.8 6.2 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.44 -66.94 EYE 25 IR 31.82 62.28 COMBO
Quoting Levi32:
A massive high centered over Virginia in 120-144 hours means the Caribbean needs to be watched closely starting October 7th. It's not that far away now.


Thanks for that Chart Levi,
2 things that wonder me from it are 1, does that mean in your opinion that any storms or hurricanes in the western Atlantic at this time can be directed into the Caribbean along the southern edge of this projected high and 2, will this high cause a very large amount of warm moist air to move northwards out of the GOM into the US and eventually Canada?
Surly the implications of this must be big storms over the central mid west areas of the US?
160. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hope it is declared a Category 4.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2

2011OCT01 214500 6.2 940.5/ -2.3 /119.8 6.2 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.44 -66.94 EYE 25 IR 31.82 62.28 COMBO


Cat 4! Cat 4!
:)

It sure looks like one.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
A miracle: NO RAIN TODAY!!


Amen!
Quoting JLPR2:


Cat 4! Cat 4!
:)

It sure looks like one.



Amen!

Yup.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Thanks for that Chart Levi,
2 things that wonder me from it are 1, does that mean in your opinion that any storms or hurricanes in the western Atlantic at this time can be directed into the Caribbean along the southern edge of this projected high and 2, will this high cause a very large amount of warm moist air to move northwards out of the GOM into the US and eventually Canada?
Surly the implications of this must be big storms over the central mid west areas of the US?


1.) No, because we're no longer that concerned with storms developing out in the middle of the Atlantic. The focus of this pattern is going to be the Caribbean, eastern gulf, and Bahamas areas for development. The high there helps incubate such development.

2.) Sure some moisture will probably eventually get into the plains, and a severe weather event may occur, but I doubt it will be that long-lived or be able to progress very far eastward, because the trough encroaching on Texas is likely to lift out instead of digging deep through the entire southeastern United States.
Remember how less than a week ago everyone was calling for ophelia to dissipate? I had a feeling it wouldn't!
The eye temperature continues to warm, and convection continues to develop in the ring of deep convection around the eye.



Link
I think Ophelia might be making a run at Cat 4 status, imo , the most impressive looking storm we've had this season!
Pretty eye

167. JLPR2
Quoting winter123:
Remember how less than a week ago everyone was calling for ophelia to dissipate? I had a feeling it wouldn't!


Definitely surprised me, I mean, I thought it would max out at cat 1. Now look at it, making a run at cat 4.
168. JLPR2
Wind shear is close or at 35-40knots, yet...


WTH!
SAB/TAFB come out in a little over an hour...That will be the deciding vote.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3

CIMSS ADT now at Category 4 strength.
wtf has gotten into Ophelia? its almost like her husband Phillipe didnt make cat 1 status like projected and she havin a hissy fit!! LOL
171. JLPR2


2011OCT01 221500 6.3 937.9/ -2.3 /122.2 (140mph) 6.3 6.4 6.4
Quoting SPLbeater:
wtf has gotten into Ophelia? its almost like her husband Phillipe didnt make cat 1 status like projected and she havin a hissy fit!! LOL


It's her TOY.
Ophelia is a tight little craft - expect bad weather in the UK in about 7 days' time ...

Brian
Could this make a run at 120-130 knts
Have a great evening everyone. Hello to Levi, I learned so much just reading his entries in 5 minutes. Thank You Levi and to other bloggers also.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Could this make a run at 120-130 knts

That may be a tad too high...I say 110-115 knots at peak, or (125-135 mph). I'm leaning towards the higher side at this time.
177. JLPR2
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Could this make a run at 120-130 knts


Looks like there is a good chance it manages that.
16L/H/O/C4
MARK
33.22N/62.25W
Quoting JLPR2:
Wind shear is close or at 35-40knots, yet...


WTH!
Resilience is the word, just like his girlfriend in her beginnings she fought almost died and became a monster.
It seems to me that this winter will likley be a memorable one for my area.I know It's to far out to forecast but these cold shots have been coming early.We've also seen a wet late summer into early fall.The last time that happened was in 2009.The animals have also been active early.There usually active early when they know a bad winter is suppose to come up.For exsample 2001-2002,2002-2003,and 2009-2010.
HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
625 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
gottaluv weather...especially tropics for these crazy unexpected acts
How is Phillipe still alive?
Quoting washingtonian115:
How is Phillipe still alive?

No...clue...
I got bored so I searched LOL on my iPad's Google Earth, and apparently "Lol" is a place in South Sudan...
Anyways, Ophelia:
Ophelia continues to organize, with deep convection now taking hostage half of the eyewall..

Quoting cyclonekid:



Yeah, but strangely enough, the MvTavish numbers aren't off the chart like usual.

Somebody might want to call Dr. Bongevine.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ophelia continues to organize, with deep convection now taking hostage half of the eyewall..

Could make a run for cat 5 if the deep convection is able to completly circle her eye.
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/11 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

Quoting biowizard:
Ophelia is a tight little craft - expect bad weather in the UK in about 7 days' time ...

Brian

We always expect bad weather in the UK!
If we had had an history of good weather we probably would never in times gone by have forged an empire on which the sun never set.After all we could just have sat in the sun and waited for the industrial revolution to be invented by someone else.
Thanks for that one Brian.
Also thanks to Levi for your answers to my previous queries.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Could make a run for cat 5 if the deep convection is able to completly circle her eye.


Whoa...lets not get ahead of ourselves now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Whoa...lets not get ahead of ourselves now.
Well who ever though she would get to cat3, that was a shocker in itself. Yah not likly but I can hope.
Here is a recently released, indepth precipitation analysis for Lee.
I am beginning to think 125 knts will be peak intensity sometime overnight tonight... already ADT shows close to 120 knts (we may see it jump to 115 knts at 8 PM and 125 at 11 PM)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Whoa...lets not get ahead of ourselves now.
that has never happened where the trough is literally right next to a hurricane for it to become a cat 5 because SW shear would prohibit it
Ophelia is almost there....She is likely a Category 4 hurricane now. Deep convection wraps around 99% of the entire eye.

just hypothetically speaking... would T 7.0 be if that thick band of white can wrap around the eye?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ophelia is almost there....She is likely a Category 4 hurricane now. Deep convection wraps around 99% of the entire eye.

notice the sw side has the stronger convection yet there is less shear to her north east :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ophelia is almost there....She is likely a Category 4 hurricane now. Deep convection wraps around 99% of the entire eye.



Ophelia is a great example of how storms struggle, but yet overcome the biggest obstacles. Hurricanes are still a mystery. Yet we think we know so much about them. We know A LOT about them, yes. However they are phenomena and they shall remain phenomena. :)
Looks like a cut-off low will form well east of Florida by Thursday-Sunday connected with a back-door cold front expected to move through by then. Wonder if that'll form into anything or not?

Originally models had it forming over or just west of Florida. But now models have trended much more eastward.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
just hypothetically speaking... would T 7.0 be if that thick band of white can wrap around the eye?

Probably not, there are other things that determine it like eye, banding, etc...7.0 is Category 5 hurricane. If it does wrap around the eye, we may see a jump to 6.5-6.5 though.

6.3 now.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
just hypothetically speaking... would T 7.0 be if that thick band of white can wrap around the eye?
That was kinda what I was thinking if it got very symetrical.
Quoting cyclonekid:


Ophelia is a great example of how storms struggle, but yet overcome the biggest obstacles. Hurricanes are still a mystery. Yet we think we know so much about them. We know A LOT about them, yes. However they are phenomena and they shall remain phenomena. :)

Until they don't become phenomena anymore. ;)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/flash-avn.html
207. JLPR2
2011OCT01 231500 6.4 935.1/ -2.5 /124.6 6.4 6.6 6.6

6.4 - 143mph, 935.1mb
Quoting JLPR2:
2011OCT01 231500 6.4 935.1/ -2.5 /124.6 6.4 6.6 6.6

6.4 - 143mph, 935.1mb
RAW is getting closer and closert to 7.0
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Probably not, there are other things that determine it like eye, banding, etc...7.0 is Category 5 hurricane. If it does wrap around the eye, we may see a jump to 6.5-6.5 though.

6.3 now.


Yeah heres the thing we are sitting right here:

2011OCT01 231500 6.4 935.1/ -2.5 /124.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.14 -68.79 EYE 24 IR 32.37 62.20 COMBO

at 6.4 which is only 0.1 from your 6.5 but the white is maybe 1 mile wide on the NE side but what I was saying is if the thickest part of the eye expands around the eye we will likely see at least 6.8 but maybe as high as 7.0
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
RAW is getting closer and closert to 7.0

A CAT 5? is that what you want?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
RAW is getting closer and closert to 7.0


:O Ophelia is one of those examples where it won't affect anyone at peak strength and we can watch this amazing system at it's peak with all the satellites :)
Newfoundland may get scraped, be prepared, but I don't think it will be that big of a deal. Yet... I've been through Irene at peak strength, so this is an awesome site to see! :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Until they don't become phenomena anymore. ;)


Hmmm. . .I wonder when that'll be. ;)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

A CAT 5? is that what you want?
Yes I do, it wont affect anybody, u need to calm down some.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Yeah heres the thing we are sitting right here:

2011OCT01 231500 6.4 935.1/ -2.5 /124.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.14 -68.79 EYE 24 IR 32.37 62.20 COMBO

at 6.4 which is only 0.1 from your 6.5 but the white is maybe 1 mile wide on the NE side but what I was saying is if the thickest part of the eye expands around the eye we will likely see at least 6.8 but maybe as high as 7.0

OH MY GOD.
Quoting prcane4you:
Still talking about Ophelia.Bye bye Ophelia.CV season is over.Now what.Boring time is here wait to next year.


October is just as bad as August. There is more home grown mischief. It's just as active if not just a little less. But Mitch, Wilma, Omar, all of these devastating hurricanes formed in the month of October.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OH MY GOD.
Hurricane Ophelia is Now Mega-Hurricane Chuckia Norris
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OH MY GOD.
DUH DUH DUHH
I would love to see a 8.0 hurricane in the central Atlantic heading north
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yes I do, it wont affect anybody, u need to calm down some.


Im hoping for that too. Waiting since 2007
Q: What will Ophelia's intensity be at 8PM?

A. 115 mph
B. 120 mph
C. 125 mph
D. 135 mph
E. Higher or lower than indicated here.

I want to say 135 mph.
8:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 32.5°N 62.4°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: N at 26 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb

OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA...
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES
EAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 62.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
Sorry guys, I should've asked the poll earlier. :P
Ophelia is boring everyone except fish.
we have a cat 4 now
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
8:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 32.5°N 62.4°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: N at 26 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb

OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA...
:) I say she peaks at 160mph. Just cause I want her to.
229. JLPR2
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
8:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 32.5°N 62.4°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: N at 26 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb

OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA...


It's 2mb away from being the strongest storm of 2011.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES
EAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 62.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
Borderline strongest storm of the season.

Irene: 942mb, 120mph
Katia: 946mb, 135mph
Ophelia: 944mb, 135mph
Quoting JLPR2:


It's 2mb away from being the strongest storm of 2011.


I want that too
Ophelia intensifying again..
lol

Compared to:
235. JLPR2
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I want that too


Yeah! me too.
Now I'm thinking she will peak at 140mph at 11pm.
SO CLOSE!

I see another "T" is in the house.You all remember the routine...just '!' and "-".Looks like Ophilia is now a cat 4.Beautiful storm.It has to be one of the most comback storms in my recent memory.(we all know the story of T.D 10 back in 2005 and what that turned into).
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
lol


I'm half expecting that to be a strong TS or hurricane in 3-4 days.

Models call for major hurricane Irwin out of this... maybe not
come on a perfect 5, no land as long as bermuda is ok
Come on Ophelia...keep going...
Quoting weatherh98:
come on a perfect 5, no land as long as bermuda is ok
Igor of last year was almost a perfect 5.Not cuasing trouble for anybody while at it's strongest point.
Quoting weatherh98:
come on a perfect 5, no land as long as bermuda is ok


Its going to hit newfoundland....thats land dork..
Quoting Skyepony:


I'm half expecting that to be a strong TS or hurricane in 3-4 days.

Ugh, not again.
Ophelia has become the farthest north Category 4 hurricane since Diana in 1984.
247. JLPR2
Quoting FloatingCity:


Its going to hit newfoundland....thats land dork..


More like brush and water temps are going to drop dramatically soon, so it should arrive there as a weakening storm, possibly extra tropical.

Inform yourself before calling anyone a dork...
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
:) I say she peaks at 160mph. Just cause I want her to.


LOL. yeah peak at 160 mph then go post tropical before Newfoundland. perfect hehe
I think Ophelia will peak right before sunrise there. It's the time of day many peak, models like it too.. MIMIC starting to get somewhat concentric rings..don't hold much hope to see Cat 5..but hard to have too much confidence, she's got the whole night ahead & looks to be on an intensifying trend.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ophelia has become the farthest north Category 4 hurricane since Diana in 1984.


Breaking records this year.

*8 tropical storms and no hurricanes (beginning the year out)
*farthest north Cat 4 since Diana (Hurricane Ella holds the record)

What else?
Quoting FloatingCity:


Its going to hit newfoundland....thats land dork..


way to show respectfor others iggy
Quoting JLPR2:


More like brush and water temps are going to drop dramatically soon, so it should arrive there as a weakening storm, possibly extra tropical.

Inform yourself before calling anyone a dork...


Ya and this storm wasn't even suppose to do anything
Quoting Skyepony:
I think Ophelia will peak right before sunrise there. It's the time of day many peak, models like it too.. MIMIC starting to get somewhat concentric rings..don't hold much hope to see Cat 5..but hard to have too much confidence, she's got the whole night ahead & looks to be on an intensifying trend.

I agree.

Probably a 140-150 mph peak.
Quoting cyclonekid:


Breaking records this year.

*8 tropical storms and no hurricanes (beginning the year out)
*farthest north Cat 4 since Diana (Hurricane Ella holds the record)

What else?

Nothing so far.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Ugh, not again.


You don't miss Hilary? I guess she still is a naked extrp ghost swirl that is still active. She's 10 days old today too.

Even though it wasn't the most unstable year, some of these storms have lasted...

Would it be correct to say, the stronger Ophelia gets now, the worse it will end up being in south-eastern Newfoundland? Obviously she will weaken, but wouldn't the intensity be stronger father north the stronger she gets now. For example if they forecast her to be at 115mph now, but is really 135mph. Would that mean she would be more like 75-85mph around the Newfoundland instead of 60-70mph?
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Would it be correct to say, the stronger Ophelia gets now, the worse it will end up being in south-eastern Newfoundland? Obviously she will weaken, but wouldn't the intensity be stronger father north the stronger she gets now. For example if they forecast her to be at 115mph now, but is really 135mph. Would that mean she would be more like 75-85mph around the Newfoundland instead of 60-70mph?

Yes.
Quoting Skyepony:


You don't miss Hilary? I guess she still is a naked extrp ghost swirl that is still active. She's 10 days old today too.

Even though it wasn't the most unstable year, some of these storms have lasted...



16L/MH/O/C4
MARK
33.22N/62.25W
Olando: Clear

temp:71F

humidity 41%

dewpoint 45F

NW winds 5-10 MPH

Gotta love it!!!
Quoting Skyepony:


You don't miss Hilary? I guess she still is a naked extrp ghost swirl that is still active. She's 10 days old today too.

Even though it wasn't the most unstable year, some of these storms have lasted...


Hilary was a good storm, but I prefer tracking storms in the Atlantic, since tracks here are more interesting to forecast. The EPAC storms are so predictable.
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Would it be correct to say, the stronger Ophelia gets now, the worse it will end up being in south-eastern Newfoundland? Obviously she will weaken, but wouldn't the intensity be stronger father north the stronger she gets now. For example if they forecast her to be at 115mph now, but is really 135mph. Would that mean she would be more like 75-85mph around the Newfoundland instead of 60-70mph?


Yes & I don't think 90kts is out of the question for Newfoundland at this point (3 out of 7 models agree), hopefully it will be a little less..

WeatherNerd~ Atleast the models threatened CA that day..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes.


Thanks, that is what I feared, I'm currently in St.john's here in Newfoundland studying at Memorial university. Got a few labs Monday morning, I figure they may get disrupted. Been through several hurricanes in my life, Maria (2011) Igor (2010) Bill (2009) and back in Nova Scotia for Kyle (2008) Juan (2003). Any idea how Ophelia may live up to any of those storms? Thanks in Advance!
264. JLPR2
2011OCT01 234500 6.5 932.5/ -2.5 /127.0 6.5 6.6 6.6

146mph, 932.5mb.
Ophelia for being written off as dead has probably made one the greatest, if not the greatest comeback ever of a tropical system!, still think the area east of T &T bears watching!
Quoting Hurricanes4life:


Thanks, that is what I feared, I'm currently in St.john's here in Newfoundland studying at Memorial university. Got a few labs Monday morning, I figure they may get disrupted. Been through several hurricanes in my life, Maria (2011) Igor (2010) Bill (2009) and back in Nova Scotia for Kyle (2008) Juan (2003). Any idea how Ophelia may live up to any of those storms? Thanks in Advance!

It'll be comparable to all of those storms, as it will probably make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane.
Quoting Skyepony:


Yes & I don't think 90kts is out of the question for Newfoundland at this point (3 out of 7 models agree), hopefully it will be a little less..

WeatherNerd~ Atleast the models threatened CA that day..


That would be bad, I haven't seen any models saying 90kts. The strongest ive seen is the GFDL about 50 to 55 kts by the time it gets here. Although all those models ended up being underdone in strength right now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll be comparable to all of those storms, as it will probably make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane.

I'm guessing that as well, however it could be a bust here if the center passes to the east, like Maria. If it heads a little to my west I'm sure I'll be in for a solid storm. I think the models (18z) have trended a little west, and im guessing the NHC update will move there cone accordingly to bring the center over the Avalon.
Tropical~ I glanced at her on FNMOC & she looked naked..cause it was IR & she's about the same temp as the ocean I guess. Not so naked on vis.. Her T# has been 1 for 2 days & she went EXTRP ~6hrs ago.
Quoting Skyepony:




WeatherNerd~ At least the models threatened CA that day..

It didn't happen (thankfully), Hilary was mostly a fish storm, but it's rainbands did cause flooding in the West Coast of MX. Also, it's impressive that the EPAC has only had 8 storms and has had a pretty decent ACE total.
Quoting Hurricanes4life:

I'm guessing that as well, however it could be a bust here if the center passes to the east, like Maria. If it heads a little to my west I'm sure I'll be in for a solid storm. I think the models (18z) have trended a little west, and im guessing the NHC update will move there cone accordingly to bring the center over the Avalon.


Yeah.

Doesn't look like a miss this time. Poor Newfoundland...has gotten hit several times this season.
It feelslike I live in the North West right now rather than the Mid-Atlantic.It's cold outside and rainy.The events of bad weather/natural disasters started from late August and have not stopped since.A flood watch is up for the area again.
guys 11pm 135 140 125 145?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah.

Doesn't look like a miss this time. Poor Newfoundland...has gotten hit several times this season.


Haha yeah, we are like the Canadian version of Florida in 04 this year :P
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
guys 11pm 135 140 125 145?

120 knots (140 mph).
Does anyone know what the chance of a EWRC is in the next 24 hours for Ophelia?
Quoting Hurricanes4life:


That would be bad, I haven't seen any models saying 90kts. The strongest ive seen is the GFDL about 50 to 55 kts by the time it gets here. Although all those models ended up being underdone in strength right now.


Here's more models, including the ones I was referencing. It's about 3 dots out to landfall. The underdone factor has me leaning toward the stronger ones. The front was really cold too so she should get plenty of baroclinic support as she goes EXTRP as well.
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Does anyone know what the chance of a EWRC is in the next 24 hours for Ophelia?

Not really thought it about...Although, Ophelia should begin to weaken sometime tomorrow.
FXCN31 CWHX 012348 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
SATURDAY 01 OCTOBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

**CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY**

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.8 N AND LONGITUDE 62.1 W , ABOUT 130 NAUTICAL MILES OR 245
KM EAST NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS ( 213 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 944
MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 24 KNOTS ( 45 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 01 9.00 PM 32.8N 62.1W 944 115 194
OCT 02 3.00 AM 35.5N 61.7W 951 100 176
OCT 02 9.00 AM 37.8N 61.0W 961 90 167
OCT 02 3.00 PM 40.2N 59.9W 963 85 157
OCT 02 9.00 PM 42.6N 58.5W 970 75 139
OCT 03 3.00 AM 44.6N 55.7W 977 70 130
OCT 03 9.00 AM 46.6N 52.6W 983 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03 3.00 PM 48.2N 48.2W 992 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03 9.00 PM 49.8N 43.8W 994 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

OPHELIA'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH A SMALL AND
WELL-DEFINED EYE, AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE UPPED ITS
INTENSITY TO CATEGORY 4. THE WIND CIRCULATION IS VERY COMPACT BASED
ON SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER A LARGE WARM
WATER TEMPERATURE ANOMALY SO THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
ITSELF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT TO THE WEST IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING OPHELIA AND BRINGING ABOUT THE NORTHWARD ACELLERATION
WE'VE SEEN TODAY.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THE GEM REG AND GLB MODELS ARE BEING DISCOUNTED IN OUR EVALUATION
OWING TO A POOR ANALYSIS OF THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE
COMPACT HURRICANE AT TIME-ZERO (12Z). THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS OFFER
A MUCH MORE REALISTIC-LOOKING DEPICTION OF THE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELDS. GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLE FOR THE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS - AT
LEAST IN TERMS OF LOCATION OF THE AXES ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA AND
A LONG FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF IT. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEING TAKEN
FROM THE GFDL-DRIVEN WAVEWATCH-3 MODEL AND CHC'S TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE
MODEL.

DETAILS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS APPEARS IN THE GENERAL INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER THE WOCN31 CWHX HEADER.

NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT HAVE UPDATED
THE INTENSITY SOMEWHAT AS IT CROSSES CANADIAN WATERS. TRANSITION TO
POST TROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE TIME IT REACHES OR PASSES
CLOSEST TO THE AVALON PENINSULA (NEWFOUNDLAND).

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
02/00Z 150 160 80 90 45 45 40 35 20 25 20 20
02/06Z 185 200 85 90 45 45 40 40 20 25 20 20
02/12Z 200 205 90 90 50 50 35 30 20 25 20 10
02/18Z 205 225 90 90 60 60 50 30 20 25 10 10
03/00Z 210 240 90 90 70 70 50 20 20 25 10 0
03/06Z 190 240 90 80 75 70 45 20 15 20 0 0
03/12Z 180 245 105 70 60 60 40 20 0 0 0 0
03/18Z 170 245 120 90 50 65 35 15 0 0 0 0
04/00Z 160 245 170 120 45 55 35 15 0 0 0 0

END/FOGARTY/BORGEL

Quoting wunderweatherman123:
guys 11pm 135 140 125 145?

I'm going with 140Mph, I wish they had a recon out there it would be nice to get some data for 2011's Strongest Atlantic storm to date. Too bad it isn't daylight, the visible sat on her would be beautiful i bet (:
Category 4 Hurricane Ophelia.

Who would ever have guessed it would ever get this strong a week ago?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It didn't happen (thankfully), Hilary was mostly a fish storm, but it's rainbands did cause flooding in the West Coast of MX. Also, it's impressive that the EPAC has only had 8 storms and has had a pretty decent ACE total.


It's been where to see the pretty storms this year..TX dust not strangling them there. The set up though has made it hard for them to get too far from land, the Open Pacific was a little cooler, definitely limiting numbers..
Quoting Skyepony:


Here's more models, including the ones I was referencing. It's about 3 dots out to landfall. The underdone factor has me leaning toward the stronger ones. The front was really cold too so she should get plenty of baroclinic support as she goes EXTRP as well.


Thank you very much! I wonder if the front will act to draw the storm more westward than the model's show. Something similar happened last year with Igor, when it was by Newfoundland. Also, very Humid here in Newfoundland, and very warm for this time of year. Usually these types of air masses delay the extra tropical transition.
Environment Canada's Official Weather Warnings

Tropical storm watch for
St. John's and vicinity issued

Hurricane Ophelia is forecast to track close to the southeastern portion of Newfoundland Monday morning with a possibility of tropical storm conditions.

A tropical storm watch means that a tropical storm or an incipient tropical storm condition poses a possible threat to the specified areas within 36 hours.

Given the close range of hurricane Ophelia's track to the Avalon Peninsula Monday morning, a tropical storm watch is being issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre for that region. This means that there is a possibility of tropical storm force winds (60 gusting to 90 km/h) from Ophelia.

Large trough.
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Does anyone know what the chance of a EWRC is in the next 24 hours for Ophelia?


On MIMIC you can see concentric eyewalls forming so one seems eminent in the next day.
Quoting Ameister12:
Category 4 Hurricane Ophelia.

Who would ever have guessed it would ever get this strong a week ago?

Nobody.
Frost advisory for all of Middle Tennessee tonight from Canadian air mass...
ATCF holds Ophelia at 115 knots (Cat 4):

AL, 16, 2011100200, , BEST, 0, 326N, 624W, 115, 944, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 1009, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D,
Quoting hydrus:
Frost advisory for all of Middle Tennessee tonight from Canadian air mass...
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EDT Saturday 1 October 2011
Condition: Mainly Clear
Pressure: 30.08 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 47.7°F
Dewpoint: 29.8°F
Humidity: 50 %
Wind: N 14 mph
GOING DOWN TO 35 TONIGHT FROST RISK
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF holds Ophelia at 115 knots (Cat 4):

AL, 16, 2011100200, , BEST, 0, 326N, 624W, 115, 944, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 1009, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D,

Philippe holding too..

AL, 17, 2011100200, , BEST, 0, 253N, 493W, 55, 996, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50, 1014, 125, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
Quoting Hurricanes4life:


Thank you very much! I wonder if the front will act to draw the storm more westward than the model's show. Something similar happened last year with Igor, when it was by Newfoundland. Also, very Humid here in Newfoundland, and very warm for this time of year. Usually these types of air masses delay the extra tropical transition.


Yeah there is a little if left in the exact where she landfalls. That Low has been such a slow mover I see what your saying about the front drawing it more west. I was almost surprised how long the Canada expects it go before it goes EXTRP (thanx Keeper). Best of luck..let us know how you fair,
Quoting Ameister12:
Category 4 Hurricane Ophelia.

Who would ever have guessed it would ever get this strong a week ago?
I never thought she'd get this strong either.She totally died out.And the forecasters all thought it was the end of her.This has to be one of the greatest come backs of a tropical cyclone.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nobody.

It amazes me how unpredictable weather can be sometimes.
Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah there is a little if left in the exact where she landfalls. That Low has been such a slow mover I see what your saying about the front drawing it more west. I was almost surprised how long the Canada expects it go before it goes EXTRP (thanx Keeper). Best of luck..let us know how you fair,


Will do, for sure. It seem people at the CHC are downplaying it a bit. Saying there is only 5 to 10% chance of a hurricane force gust. They wont even mention sustained winds.
Just three hours ago, the NHC put the chances of Ophelia reaching Category 4 status at 3%.

Now look where it is...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just three hours ago, the NHC put the chances of Ophelia reaching Category 4 status at 3%.

Now look where it is...

This season is the NHC's worst nightmare...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

This season is the NHC's worst nightmare...

lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just three hours ago, the NHC put the chances of Ophelia reaching Category 4 status at 3%.

Now look where it is...


Yeah, intensity forecasts are very difficult. This storm likes to strengthen no matter what people say. Kinda like an annular hurricane, but it isn't. But it kinda is in terms wanting to increase intensity/ maintain it!


seems to be a light circulation in this area!
307. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The ring of intense convection is almost closed around the eye. Neat!
Quoting JLPR2:


The ring of intense convection is almost closed around the eye. Neat!


Yep.
Bermuda has been brushed several times this year, Jose, Gert, Katia, Ophelia, just to name a few, Franklin believe it or not dropped a little rain before he moved out.

I give Ophelia, the best looking hurricane of the year award for 2011, unless a future hurricane takes her place.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Bermuda has been brushed several times this year, Jose, Gert, Katia, Ophelia, just to name a few, Franklin believe it or not dropped a little rain before he moved out.

I give Ophelia, the best looking hurricane of the year award for 2011, unless a future hurricane takes her place.

With the high Sea Surface Temperatures and the high Ocean Heat Content, I think there is a good chance of the latter occurring. Not saying it will occur, but IMO, there is a good chance.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ophelia for being written off as dead has probably made one the greatest, if not the greatest comeback ever of a tropical system!, still think the area east of T &T bears watching!

Some lightening around for the past 3-4 hours.
No wind, hot and still with gentle drizzle from time to time.
Looks like we may get some action later tonight/tomorrow.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

With the high Sea Surface Temperatures and the high Ocean Heat Content, I think there is a good chance of the latter occurring. Not saying it will occur, but IMO, there is a good chance.


agreed.
Best looking eye of this year in the ATL. Irene and Katia never maintained an eye like this for an extended period of time.
At 11pm I think:
140mph - 145mph
940mb - 945mb
But that's just a guess.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
At 11pm I think:
140mph - 145mph
940mb - 945mb
But that's just a guess.

It'll be somewhere between 125-145 mph, but not 130 mph.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll be somewhere between 125-145 mph, but not 130 mph.

Well, let's see what Ophelia does for the next hour and a half.
317. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
At 11pm I think:
140mph - 145mph
940mb - 945mb
But that's just a guess.


I would like to see:
HURRICANE OPHELIA BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE, SO FAR, OF THE 2011 SEASON.

I'm thinking along those line too.
140mph
938-940mb
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
At 11pm I think:
140mph - 145mph
940mb - 945mb
But that's just a guess.


I'm gonna guess 140 mph, considering this hurricane looks so great at such a high latitude. :P
I think Ophelia found her peak at 125 knots (145 mph), unless she begins to strengthen again. But for now, she is holding steady.

2011OCT02 011500 6.5 932.3/ -2.7 /127.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.94 -67.53 EYE 23 IR 33.22 62.08 COMBO
I think she may be trending downward in intensity again. probably peaked about an 1/2 an hour ago or so.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just three hours ago, the NHC put the chances of Ophelia reaching Category 4 status at 3%.

Now look where it is...
The NHC have been really bad with intensity forecast this year.Last year they did a good job even in 2009 and 2008.What is 2011 trying to prove?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think Ophelia found her peak at 125 knots (145 mph), unless she begins to strengthen again. But for now, she is holding steady.

2011OCT02 011500 6.5 932.3/ -2.7 /127.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.94 -67.53 EYE 23 IR 33.22 62.08 COMBO

Holy chicken wings look at the pressure.
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
I think she may be trending downward in intensity again. probably peaked about an 1/2 an hour ago or so.


Weakening? Definitely not...Hold steady? Yeah.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Holy chicken wings look at the pressure.

lol, yeah.
Sorry had to put a blogger on iggy for the moment due to them screwing up the format.They will be taken off soon once the problem is fixed or when we go to a new page.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Weakening? Definitely not...Hold steady? Yeah.


The eye has warmed so much that if it warms further it will open up a wormhole that'll lead us to another dimension.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The eye has warmed so much that if it warms further it will open up a wormhole that'll lead us to another dimension.


LOL, ahahhahha
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The eye has warmed so much that if it warms further it will open up a wormhole that'll lead us to another dimension.


LOL.
329. JLPR2


Actually it's starting to look better again.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Ophelia is being censored!!.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ophelia is being censored!!.


lol
Looks like the hurricane symbol.

Ophelia's eye temperature continues to warm, and Ophelia's mean cloud cover temperature continues to cool, now down to -67.90C (again, MEAN cloud cover temp.)

2011OCT02 014500 6.5 932.2/ -2.8 /127.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.94 -67.90 EYE 23 IR 33.41 62.05 COMBO

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll be somewhere between 125-145 mph, but not 130 mph.

Say what?
Quoting bappit:

Say what?

It'll be somewhere between 125-145 mph, but not 130 mph. Additionally, the pressure will be somewhere between 940-945 mbar, but not 944 mbar...It will be moving WNW to ENE, but not NNW.
342. BDAwx
Seems like Bermuda really escaped Ophelia unscathed :).
A long ways out but the model says the season is not over yet.


Quoting BDAwx:
Seems like Bermuda really escaped Ophelia unscathed :).

Y'all are very very lucky...

Quoting MelbourneTom:
A long ways out but the model says the season is not over yet.



Of course it isn't, we still have several more storms to go.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Rush... Powerful.... like always...

Ophelia is moving out of view of the Bermuda radar.
24.1n62.9w, 25.5n63.0w, 27.0n63.1w, 28.5n62.9w, 30.4n62.8w have been re-evaluated&altered for H.Ophelia's_2Oct_12amGMT_ATCF
24.2n62.9w, 25.6n63.0w, 27.0n63.1w, 28.5n63.1w, 30.4n62.8w, 32.6n62.4w are now the most recent positions
Starting 30Sept_6pmGMT and ending 2Oct_12amGMT

The 5 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 2Oct_12amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 45.037n61.85w-YPS is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 1Oct_6pmGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbbell at 45.876n59.991w-YPS is the same for the 1Oct_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 25.5mph(41k/h) on a heading of 8.8degrees(N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over BurntIslands,Newfoundland ~1day14hours from now

Copy&paste 45.876n59.991w-yps, 45.037n61.85w-yps, 24.2n62.9w-25.6n63.0w, 25.6n63.0w-27.0n63.1w, 27.0n63.1w-28.5n63.1w, 28.5n63.1w-30.4n62.8w, 30.4n62.8w-32.6n62.4w, bda, 30.4n62.8w-47.596n58.895w, yjt into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 1Oct_6pmGMT


* The alterations of the endpoints of a TropicalCyclone's previous paths also change its previous travel-speeds&headings, and the endpoints of its previous straightline projections...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I just got off the phone with an expert and he says with Op exiting and the fronts moving on down we can FINALLY let down our guards in the US and relax. Islanders may not be so lucky as he sees a possible threat from the south in 2 weeks.

If he said that, he isn't much of an expert...
With every one of those images of Ophelia tearing up the east coast, albeit far from land, I hear the music of the Navy hymn, and that pleading last line: "For those in peril on the sea."
October will likley be active.especially since this is a nutreal year.(2005 and 2008 had very active October's).
Too bad we didn't VIS images of Ophelia now. Would be a spectacular sight, based on her organisation on IR.
dis aint no neutral year, atleast not activity wise, that is
Quoting MoltenIce:
Too bad we didn't VIS images of Ophelia now. Would be a spectacular sight, based on her organisation on IR.

It'll be there for us in the morning. ;)

Quoting SPLbeater:
dis aint no neutral year, atleast not activity wise, that is

Its been a Neutral/La Nina combination.
i still smell like Coppertone sunscreen from the beach,lol. NHC kinda sluggish tonight with advisories eh? or is it cuz they got 2 complete advisories to write...maybe so..
Looks like the first cold front from Conus captures remains of Philippe... That will officially open the Surfing season in PR....

Philippe up to 70 mph.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...OPHELIA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD WITH 140 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 62.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Ophelia 140mph now...Phillipe 70mph? WTF!!!
ophelia becomes the strongest hurricane of the 2011 season 140mph and 940mb
366. 7544
Quoting SPLbeater:
Ophelia 140mph now...Phillipe 70mph? WTF!!!


and not bothering anyone lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Philippe up to 70 mph.


It's also an overachiever... just like Ophelia :P
Phillipe still alive!!! and almost a hurricane?!!!!.oh man this season is so confusing and unexpecting.
Quoting SPLbeater:
Ophelia 140mph now...Phillipe 70mph? WTF!!!


Ophelia 140mph amazes me. Water temps in this region are 5 degrees cooler still she intensifies?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Phillipe still alive!!! and almost a hurricane?!!!!.oh man this season is so confusing and unexpecting.
I know right? I never anticipated Ophelia to be a Category 4.
Lol, nice opener.

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

DURING ITS SECOND LIFETIME...OPHELIA HAS BEEN AN OVERACHIEVER AND
HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. THE BERMUDA RADAR EARLIER INDICATED
THAT THE EYEWALL WAS QUITE STRONG WITH A CLOSED PRESENTATION. MORE
RECENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WARM WELL-DEFINED EYE...A MORE
SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T VALUES WERE NEAR 115 KT AT 00Z...WITH
CIMSS ADT VALUES REACHING 122 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 120 KT. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS...AND THE DECREASE IN STRENGTH
SHOULD BE QUITE RAPID BY MIDDAY TOMORROW DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR AND OPHELIA CROSSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...010/23. A
GRADUALLY ACCELERATING TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD
BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.
ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW OPHELIA NEAR OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED LEFTWARD AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OF THE GENERALLY RELIABLE GUIDANCE...ONLY
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL
LIKELY BE RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT
TIME...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT SOME DISTANCE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0046 UTC ASCAT PASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 33.8N 62.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 37.4N 61.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 42.5N 59.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 46.5N 53.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 49.5N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0000Z 53.0N 22.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
ophelia becomes the strongest hurricane of the 2011 season 140mph and 940mb
WOW! A lot of so called experts will get their walking papers over this one. Suppose it was on Irene's path and it blew up like this with NO WARNING!
Quoting MoltenIce:
I know right? I never anticipated Ophelia to be a Category 4.
Me either.I think the NHC is being a little bit conservative with Phillipe's intensity.I think it could have a shot of being one.And hey after staying around this long and fighting with shear I think he deserves to be one.
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN SPITE OF MORE THAN 30 KT OF
NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.


LMAO. That tells me that shear is way overrated by forecasters.
PHILIPPE looks more like a fish

look you see it fins and you see its tale
It seems that Phillipe is getting pulled into Ophelia's rotation. The name for this effect is called
Fujiwhara.

Click this link to learn more
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_interactio n
Quoting Tazmanian:
PHILIPPE looks more like a fish

He's starting to look like his family members now.
Ww had to wait until the o name to meet the strongest hurricane of the season 2011. Ophelia made it on it's second life.... sounds wrong right?
Philipe strengthening under 30 kt shear???

such an up-side-down season...
Quoting Tazmanian:
look you see it fins and you see its tale
He looks like a plankton.
Plankton??

Electrifying blue waves luring awe-struck crowds to San Diego beaches
By: Pete Thomas, GrindTV.com Friday, September 30, 2011 12:48pm PDT
By day, a red tide is unsightly and uninviting, with water the color of coffee. But at night, during this unusual phenomenon caused by a plankton bloom, the waves are a brilliant, almost neon blue. This wonderfully surreal scene has played out almost nightly along San Diego beaches for several weeks, luring spectators with cameras and video recorders.
Link

383. 7544
could we say the best is still yet to come for oct.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Plankton??

Electrifying blue waves luring awe-struck crowds to San Diego beaches
By: Pete Thomas, GrindTV.com Friday, September 30, 2011 12:48pm PDT
By day, a red tide is unsightly and uninviting, with water the color of coffee. But at night, during this unusual phenomenon caused by a plankton bloom, the waves are a brilliant, almost neon blue. This wonderfully surreal scene has played out almost nightly along San Diego beaches for several weeks, luring spectators with cameras and video recorders.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Ww had to wait until the o name to meet the strongest hurricane of the season 2011. Ophelia made it on it's second life.... sounds wrong right?
Philipe strengthening under 30 kt shear???

such an up-side-down season...
What could possibly make it more backwards?....If October produces more hurricanes than September did.And November also get's a hurricane.
Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines, Kills one person.



The rooftop serves as veritable Noahs Ark of a few animals, cats, dogs, chickens, ducks and a pigeon after the owners abandoned the submerged house in Gugo village, Calumpit, Bulacan. Unfortunately, rescue workers could only evacuate humans.
Editorial
Man-made disaster
Philippine Daily Inquirer



Howling like unleashed demons over the oceans, typhoons have become every Filipino’s experience, especially between June and December of every year. Some of these typhoons are painfully etched in the nation’s memory for their ferocity. Names like “Ondoy,” “Falcon” and “Milenyo” still strike fear in many of those who fell victim to their blade-like winds and endless rainfall.

Fortunately, we learn. So government now tries to get ahead of typhoons by planning evacuations, suspending classes and sending out evacuation and rescue patrols. The horrors unleashed by 2009’s Typhoon “Ondoy” in particular have spurred government agencies into preemptive action.

In the Aquino administration, preemptive action has taken form in the “zero casualty” policy, the execution of which is coordinated by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), acting on forecasts made by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). But somehow, despite all that planning, despite all that readiness, people still die. That’s because you can never “outplan” the fury of nature.

“There are those who ask us why ‘zero casualty’ is often the policy of the Aquino government… Even if there are preparations, there really would be [casualties],” Deputy Presidential Spokesperson Abigail Valte said in a press briefing regarding Typhoon “Pedring’s” effect on the country. “What the government can do is to ensure as much as we can, according to our capabilities, the security of those people who are in the path of, and who would be affected by, these types of calamities.”

The numbers speak for themselves, as of this writing, Pedring is said to have left 50 dead and over P5 billion in damages to property. The figures could have been so much worse if not for the palpable, coordinated efforts of the NDRRMC and other government units, including LGUs, in evacuating people out of harm’s way and in sending boats and trucks to rescue those affected by the really bad weather. It cannot be doubted that the orchestrated government plans enabled the Filipino people to better prepare for these weather disturbances. But government can only do so much.

In the wake of Pedring, and right in the path of the next, Typhoon “Quiel,” many towns and cities in Central Luzon have been left underwater; thousands of people are stranded and billions of pesos worth of crops have been wiped out. The problem is, while many of those stranded were simply overwhelmed by the swift rise of water after the intense rainfall, followed by the simultaneous releasing of water from dams, there are also those who openly defied the government’s evacuation order.

Unfortunately, some of us never learn. There is a variety of reasons for staying behind despite the order to evacuate. One very common, and understandable, has been to protect their homes from looting. But perhaps the worst we hear is that townspeople feel their local government is simply overreacting, that Pagasa got it all wrong – or simply, that they don’t think the waters will rise high or fast enough to merit leaving their homes. Often, they exacerbate the situation by keeping their loved ones with them, trusting in their own estimates instead of what the government and its agencies are saying. Another terrible example of stubborn miscalculation, fishermen would lay sail despite the Philippine Coast Guard’s order to stay away from the increasingly stormy seas, their need to earn trumping their common sense, and so many of them go missing in the gale.

“Kung tumutugon lang sila sa advisories ng Pagasa at ng council na ito, maiiwasan natin ang casualties (If only they heed Pagasa’s advisories and this council, we can avoid the casualties),” NDRRMC head Benito Ramos told reporters.

The Aquino administration’s efforts to mitigate the harrowing effects of the typhoons may not be perfect, but they are active measures meant to minimize the death count, damage and destruction. True, the agencies can do better, but they are doing their part, forecasting and preparing, as best as they can.

It is thus left to the citizens themselves to have faith in their government’s efforts, to believe that the government has their best interest in mind when issuing evacuation orders and bans on putting out to sea. Faced with the sheer force of nature, it is up to everyone to make sure a natural disaster is not made much worse by disastrous decisions made by man.
_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________
This rings true the world over, people think they no better than government agencies and risk there life and the lives of others to save something that can be rebuilt. Is a house worth your life???
Ophelia's the strongest storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season with that 140mph wind and 940mb pressure.
Quoting 7544:


and not bothering anyone lol


390. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ophelia's the strongest storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season with that 140mph wind and 940mb pressure.


Who would have thought? :)
Weakening

2011OCT02 034500 6.5 932.0/ -3.0 /127.0 6.5 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.04 -67.20 EYE 23 IR 34.24 62.06 COMBO
00 gfs coming out now
370 mrjr101 "Ophelia 140mph amazes me. Water temps in this region are 5 degrees cooler, still she intensifies?"

Ophelia is travelling so fast, 25.5mph(41k/h), that its sucking up the heat energy of the warmest near-surface waters then moving on to new warm surface waters before the cooler waters below can upwell&mix enough to sap its strength.
394. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Weakening

2011OCT02 034500 6.5 932.0/ -3.0 /127.0 6.5 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.04 -67.20 EYE 23 IR 34.24 62.06 COMBO


You mean the Raw numbers right?

On the Final numbers she is holding steady.
Quoting JLPR2:


You mean the Raw numbers right?

On the Final numbers she is holding steady.


Yep, usually raw numbers indicate weakening, also eye temp has cooled.
396. JLPR2
Philippe looks like an arrow.

It's like it's saying: Hey! What are you looking at me for, look at Ophelia over there! *points*

XD
397. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes4life:


Yep, usually raw numbers indicate weakening, also eye temp has cooled.


Yeah, she peaked, it's supposed to be downhill from here on out.
Quoting JLPR2:
Philippe looks like an arrow.

It's like it's saying: Hey! What are you looking at me for, look at Ophelia over there! *points*

XD
Phillipe looks like the ugly duckling of the season.Lol.He may become a hurricane but with those looks no storm system is going to want to come near him.Lol.
Ophelia looked FANTASTIC This PM, and is now on the downfall, Philippe could make a run at Category 1 Status.
So with most of the surprises out of the way, we move onto what could happen in the next 10 days...
Possible Caribbean development could occur in about 5 to 7 days, and come up as far west as E. the GULF, and as far east as Haiti.
400. JLPR2
Water temps are starting to go down.


By Midday O should be having some cold problems.
Though somewhat distorted. Shows how well organised Ophelia is.
402. JLPR2
I knew 2011 could do it.
JMO The strong front helped with ri. Just like Wilma in '05.
Quoting JLPR2:
I knew 2011 could do it.
406. JLPR2
I was so focused on Ophelia I didnt notice this...

Tropical Storm Philippe
11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 25.4N 49.8W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb

Say Wha...! XD

How about this arctic blast hitting us hear in Alabama. Record lows are predicted throughout the Southeast tonight. The wind is cutting right through us. This might keep any major storms from developing during the end of the hurricane season.
Quoting JLPR2:
I was so focused on Ophelia I didnt notice this...

Tropical Storm Philippe
11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 25.4N 49.8W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb

Say Wha...! XD




you late on that way too late on that LOL been there for some time now
409. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



you late on that way too late on that LOL been there for some time now


Exactly, I hadn't noticed. That was the point of the comment. :P
410. JLPR2
The shrinking eye is bad news for Ophelia, good news for Newfoundland.


Quoting sunlinepr:
Plankton??

Electrifying blue waves luring awe-struck crowds to San Diego beaches
By: Pete Thomas, GrindTV.com Friday, September 30, 2011 12:48pm PDT
By day, a red tide is unsightly and uninviting, with water the color of coffee. But at night, during this unusual phenomenon caused by a plankton bloom, the waves are a brilliant, almost neon blue. This wonderfully surreal scene has played out almost nightly along San Diego beaches for several weeks, luring spectators with cameras and video recorders.
Link

pretty cool pic thanks
Quoting KoritheMan:
I just wrote a blog entry on Ophelia and Philippe if anyone wants to read.


Thanks! I haven't been around for a few days and your entry helped me catch up.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NALGAE (T1119)
15:00 PM JST October 2 2011
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nalgae (975 hPa) located at 16.7N 116.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.8N 113.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 17.3N 111.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 18.1N 108.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Typhoons leave 55 dead, Filipinos trapped on roofs.



Back-to-back typhoons have left at least 55 people dead and rescuers scrambling to deliver food and water to hundreds of villagers marooned on rooftops for four days by floods in the northern Philippines.

Typhoon ‘Quiel’ (international name: Nalgae) blew into Isabela province Saturday then barrelled across the main Luzon Island’s mountainous north and agricultural plains that were still sodden from fierce rain and wind unleashed by a howler just days earlier.

Philippine officials said Quiel left at least three people dead Saturday while typhoon Pedring (international name: Nesat) killed 52 others in the same region before blowing out Friday.

Benito Ramos of the Office of Civil Defense said hundreds of villagers remained trapped on rooftops Sunday in a flooded town north of Manila.
Rescuers struggle to save Quiel victims.



Rescuers struggled Sunday to evacuate tens of thousands of people trapped in their homes in the Philippines as more floods were forecast in the aftermath of typhoon Quiel (international codename: Nalgae)

Fanning out across inundated towns just a few hours north of the capital Manila using small boats and trucks, officials issued desperate pleas for those still refusing to leave their homes to be relocated to safety.

Quiel blew out of the Philippines after a six-hour rampage across the countrys main Luzon island Saturday, bringing fresh troubles for more than a million people affected by Typhoon Nesat which had struck five days earlier.

Quiel soaked the Cordillera mountain range, and water cascading from the slopes was expected to further swell tributaries and rivers in the central Luzon plains before draining into Manila Bay later Sunday.

We are asking everyone still refusing to leave their homes to let authorities evacuate them, Office of Civil Defense administrator Benito Ramos told AFP as he inspected the farming town of Calumpit, two hours drive north of Manila, which has been flooded for days.

Water from the Cordilleras could reach the plains today (Sunday) and there is a possibility that there wont be any more rooftops left to see if that catches up with water from Nesat thats just now subsiding, he said.

As the sun broke through the clouds early Sunday, thousands waded through waist-deep waters in search of food and drinking water but found out that even the town hall was inundated.

Residents grappled with ropes rigged on lamp posts so as not to be swept away by the strong current, while others carried improvised flotation devices such as empty water bottles.

Those with access to small canoes ferried supplies to stranded relatives, or moved out pets and livestock.

Volunteers on rubber boats went from one flooded home to another to hand over relief items, including dry clothes and instant noodles.

A white coffin was also seen rigged on a canoe, but the grieving relatives had nowhere to take the dead with the cemetery also waterlogged.

I have been trapped here for the last four days, said Ropalyn Sebastian, a 26-year-old toll booth clerk who was visiting a friend in Calumpit when Nesat struck last week.
My family is in the next town, and the last I heard from them was they were stranded in the second floor of our home.

Sebastian said she braved the water Sunday hoping it would subside, only to hear warnings of more floods expected later in the day.

Help is slow to arrive, and even the municipal hall is flooded, she said.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council in Manila recorded only one death from Quiel, but said Nesat left at least 52 people dead after it unleashed strong winds and devastating floods.

More than 2.4 million people were affected by Nesat, nearly half a million of them still staying in evacuation centres, while the rest opted to wait out the floods in their homes.

The Philippines endures an average of about 20 typhoons of the year, some of them causing widespread destruction and deaths.

Nesat and Nalgae were two of the most powerful typhoons this year, bringing torrential rains to vast areas in Luzon, including in Manila, where storm surges broke through the sea wall last week.
Starting to cool off here in the really deep south:





North Luzon Expressway (NLEx) appears like a bridge from this aerial view of Bulacan province as floodwater covers large tracts of land around the freeway on Oct. 1, 2011

This is what it's like between my place and Pampanga.
418. JLPR2
Finally!

Philippe's circulation exposed.
Quoting JLPR2:
Finally!

Philippe's circulation exposed.
He's gotta be the most peculiar looking storm I've ever seen.
GFS shows a Caribbean system in about 2 weeks. That's pretty much right on time. Most years we get a system going the 1-2 week in October.
Quoting AussieStorm:




North Luzon Expressway (NLEx) appears like a bridge from this aerial view of Bulacan province as floodwater covers large tracts of land around the freeway on Oct. 1, 2011

This is what it's like between my place and Pampanga.
Quoting AussieStorm:




North Luzon Expressway (NLEx) appears like a bridge from this aerial view of Bulacan province as floodwater covers large tracts of land around the freeway on Oct. 1, 2011

This is what it's like between my place and Pampanga.
OMG plse stay safe there
Quoting charlottefl:
Starting to cool off here in the really deep south:

feels great huh

Good Morning, How's this for cooling down in Fl. Lovin it
Ophelia,Ophelia and more Ophelia.A big fish going nowhere.Now bla bla is over.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
GFS shows a Caribbean system in about 2 weeks. That's pretty much right on time. Most years we get a system going the 1-2 week in October.


ECMWF develops a Caribbean system towards the end of the week N. of Cuba, brings it up just east of FL.
Good Morning... nice cool start
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning... nice cool start


this is freezing four days ago it was ninety now its 45 im so cold in here
While waiting for the 12pmGMT ATCF...
H.Ophelia's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 1Oct_6amGMT and ending 2Oct_6amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 2Oct_6amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 47.596n58.895w-YJT is the endpoint of the 2Oct_12amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 45.037n61.85w-YPS is the same for the 1Oct_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 27.7mph(44.5k/h) on a heading of 5.9degrees(N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over SaintEsprit,NovaScotia ~21hours from now

Copy&paste 45.037n61.85w-yps, 47.596n58.895w-yjt, 27.0n63.1w-28.5n63.1w, 28.5n63.1w-30.4n62.8w, 30.4n62.8w-32.6n62.4w, 32.6n62.4w-35.0n62.1w, bda, 32.6n62.4w-45.635n60.493w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 2Oct_12amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
55 degrees at Carrollwood,Tampa and I'm freezing !!!!!
p storm looks done for
Both the ECMWF and GFS want to develop a strong sub-tropical storm off the Florida East coast by the 11th, and have been showing this solution for a few days.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
55 degrees at Carrollwood,Tampa and I'm freezing !!!!!

Morning, you will get use to the chilly weather. Looks nice here in tampa all week. highs in the low-mid 80's lows in the 50's to 60's range.
Its funny how 2011 doesn't get its strongest storm until early October. Lets hope Ophelia really is going to be the strongest storm of the season.
3 runs so far that ECMWF has been showing some sort of weak system developing. GFS has been at it too but mainly in long range.

00Z CMC resembles a bit NGP runs so something might start cooking up next week.
well the track for the carribean system is uncertain but most likely a north track anywhere from the E. gulf to hispanola need to watch out
Fricking burrr in SW FL. 63F at 8:45am here. Goodbye GOM hurricane season 2011.
438. DDR
Morning all
Loooks like la nina is rearing its ugly head here in Trinidad,2.6 inches here since last evening.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
well the track for the carribean system is uncertain but most likely a north track anywhere from the E. gulf to hispanola need to watch out


I have my serious doubt about the GOM. If something were to develop, I'd look for a NE direction through Central/Eastern Cuba and through the Bahama's. A pretty common track especially with this very strong early season cold front.
Quoting StormHype:
Fricking burrr in SW FL. 63F at 8:45am here. Goodbye GOM hurricane season 2011.


I wouldn't count it out. Off Shore water temps in the central and southern GOM are in the 80s. And we know the water temps in the Caribbean are in the 80s.

Don't be suprised if there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean in couple weeks threatening Cuba and possibly Florida.
But as mentioned, with the current pattern I think Florida (possibly S.E. coast) is pretty much it for a U.S. threat. I don't see anything moving up into the central gulf coast with this current setup.
Caribbean waters are hotter than...
35.0n62.1w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Ophelia's_2Oct_12pmGMT_ATCF
34.8n62.1w, 37.4n61.4w are now the most recent positions
Starting 1Oct_12pmGMT and ending 2Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 2Oct_12pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 45.635n60.493w-YPS is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 2Oct_6amGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbell at 47.596n58.895w-YJT is the same for the 2Oct_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 30.5mph(49.1k/h) on a heading of 12.1degrees(NNE)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over Otter'sPoint,Newfoundland ~22hours from now

Copy&paste 47.596n58.895w-yjt, 45.635n60.493w-yps, 28.5n63.1w-30.4n62.8w, 30.4n62.8w-32.6n62.4w, 32.6n62.4w-34.8n62.1w, 34.8n62.1w-37.4n61.4w, bda, 34.8n62.1w-47.691n58.036w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 2Oct_6amGMT
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Both the ECMWF and GFS want to develop a strong sub-tropical storm off the Florida East coast by the 11th, and have been showing this solution for a few days.


GFS is not pushing back anymore the timeframe of a Caribbean development.At 00z it begins to develop at 192 hours.Let's see if the Euro follows GFS in next runs.
Quoting severstorm:

Morning, you will get use to the chilly weather. Looks nice here in tampa all week. highs in the low-mid 80's lows in the 50's to 60's range.



I hope so because this is just starting.
Quoting severstorm:

Morning, you will get use to the chilly weather. Looks nice here in tampa all week. highs in the low-mid 80's lows in the 50's to 60's range.

Not too far south of you in Naples, it's business as usual for early October: the 10-day forecast calls for highs in the mid- to upper-80s, with lows hovering around 70. In my many years in South Florida, I've never seen the first real cold front--that is, with lows in the 40s--come through until the third week of October, give or take a few days, and I don't see anything on the long-range that will change that.

(The 10-day for Tampa proper doesn't look all that different: a high of 83 today, but in the mid- to upper-80s the rest of the time, and lows around 70 after a few nights in the 60s.)

While much of the east is cool today, the middle part is downright hot: the highs all the way up through Montana and North Dakota today will be around 90. But that blob of warmth shifts eastward through the week bringing moderate temperatures all through the Mississippi Valley. And then a real cold blast starts moving across the country from the Pacific, with temps in the 20s and 30s all throughout the Rockies by next weekend, and, likely, the first widespread chance of measurable snow in the mountain regions. A few samples:

Lander, WY
Today: high 81
Next Sunday: low 38 with snow showers.

Scottsbluff, NE:
Today: high 90
Next Sunday: low 37

Steamboat Springs, CO:
Today: high 73
Next Sunday: low 29 with snow showers

It's coming...
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



I hope so because this is just starting.

Last year got chilly in Oct. warm in Nov. the got down right cold dec thur mar. My lowest temp this year was 17 on jan.22. I live 40 miles ne of Tampa.
Good morning all.

The GFS and ECMWF have latched on to the idea of two systems over the next 10 days or so...One is a strong subtropical storm off the southeastern coastline, and the other is the highly advertised Caribbean system.

Rina and Sean would be the names.
Quoting DDR:
Morning all
Loooks like la nina is rearing its ugly head here in Trinidad,2.6 inches here since last evening.

Coming down hard here right now, with Rumbles and Squalls.
NICE!
Yeah, don't let the some what cooler air fool you (Southern half of Florida).
South Florida is typically quite warm and humid aound Holloween (that's a month from now). I wouldn't expet this year to be any different.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Not too far south of you in Naples, it's business as usual for early October: the 10-day forecast calls for highs in the mid- to upper-80s, with lows hovering around 70. In my many years in South Florida, I've never seen the first real cold front--that is, with lows in the 40s--come through until the third week of October, give or take a few days, and I don't see anything on the long-range that will change that.

(The 10-day for Tampa proper doesn't look all that different: a high of 83 today, but in the mid- to upper-80s the rest of the time, and lows around 70 after a few nights in the 60s.)

While much of the east is cool today, the middle part is downright hot: the highs all the way up through Montana and North Dakota today will be around 90. But that blob of warmth shifts eastward through the week bringing moderate temperatures all through the Mississippi Valley. And then a real cold blast starts moving across the country from the Pacific, with temps in the 20s and 30s all throughout the Rockies by next weekend, and, likely, the first widespread chance of measurable snow in the mountain regions. A few samples:

Lander, WY
Today: high 81
Next Sunday: low 38 with snow showers.

Scottsbluff, NE:
Today: high 90
Next Sunday: low 37

Steamboat Springs, CO:
Today: high 73
Next Sunday: low 29 with snow showers

It's coming...


sometimes even later nea... some years it takes till november for a good front to come thru without stalling around sarasota. What's weird is that the front had no real moisture....but was strong. THe casino boat had HUGE swells last night off fort myers beach....lots of sick people!
Quoting severstorm:

Last year got chilly in Oct. warm in Nov. the got down right cold dec thur mar. My lowest temp this year was 17 on jan.22. I live 40 miles ne of Tampa.


That's cold.
The all time record low for my area (Ft. Myers) is
27 degrees in 1905.
Actually I found a reading of 24 degrees but I don't know the date. I'll have to try to find it.



Quoting FrankZapper:

The Bioluminescence...
That's nice!
One of the prettiest things that I have ever seen is my small children swimming naked at night in luminous water in Tobago.
When they ran out of the sea they were looking like Tinkerbell with green sparkly glowing skin.....
Fantastic!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That's cold.
The all time record low for my area (Ft. Myers) is
27 degrees in 1905.
Actually I found a reading of 24 degrees but I don't know the date. I'll have to try to find it.





Actually based on NOAA information the all time record low is 26 degrees.

I think they must be using different locations.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That's cold.
The all time record low for my area (Ft. Myers) is
27 degrees in 1905.
Actually I found a reading of 24 degrees but I don't know the date. I'll have to try to find it.




The alltime record for Zephyrhills is 12 back in 1978. I think. I'm at work will check that when i get home.
How did I end up Quoting myself? That's interesting.
A nice and cool 59 here in north Pinellas County. Well, it was 59 anyway.
Here's site that has most major cities and the all time record low for each month.
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/ex tremelow.html
Trinidad weather now--
Temp 75F
Humidity 100%
Winds S/E 8mph
Pressure 1014.

Coming down heavy and constant.
Big change from yesterday when it was 93 at 10 am with 52% humidity....
I'm not sure why, but the page won't come up.
Spectacular weather here in SE fla !!! looks like we have something brewing just east of Belize and the yucatan peninsula that may be what the models are hinting at for development.
Any chance that the mid west cool weather(frost on the roofs this morning) is a good indicator that huricane activity is about done for this year?
for those of us who live in florida and the NW carribbean this is the worst part of the hurricane season for us especially how the pattern is set up, so hope nothing forms it may very well hit florida
Quoting coganguy:
Any chance that the mid west cool weather(frost on the roofs this morning) is a good indicator that huricane activity is about done for this year?
no but anything forming in the gulf especially the central and northern gulf will be difficult
NWS websites are down
It got down into the mid-40s here this morning...that's cold for October standards.
Pic is linked to the RGB Loop.
The link works... just take the space out from between the 'x' and 't'. :)

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/ex tremelow.html
Quoting Seflhurricane:
for those of us who live in florida and the NW carribbean this is the worst part of the hurricane season for us especially how the pattern is set up, so hope nothing forms it may very well hit florida
True...And October has produced its share of monster hurricanes.
It's interesting to note that three of the ten most intense Atlantic hurricanes of all time--including the most intense (Wilma) and the most deadly since 1780 (Mitch) were October storms, and all struck Southwest Florida. Some artwork:

1924 Cuban Hurricane (10/14 - 10/23)
Hurricane path

1998 Hurricane Mitch (10/22 - 11/05)
Hurricane path

2005 Hurricane Wilma (10/15 - 10/26)
Hurricane path
whoa,
Wouldn't like that slowly heading toward me, Category 1 Rina. With Ridge built over top.
66F with a N breeze,,

O man,, fall always welcomed here.
such an awkward track... :/
Philippe 11AM Discussion

...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS FOR NOW AND SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RE-STRENGTHENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
HOWEVER...IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 26.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 26.5N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 26.3N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 26.2N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 26.3N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 28.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 30.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 32.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

After Ophelia, who knows what he'll pull..
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

what???
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE N
EAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

what??
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE N
EAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

what???
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE N
EAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

what???


?

What?
Looks like the Euro cuts off a low from a backdoor cold front and leaves it hangin a few days over the Bahama's next weekend. I wonder if that'll turn into another Andrea?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
whoa,
Wouldn't like that slowly heading toward me, Category 1 Rina. With Ridge built over top.






your showing us a black box
NEW BLOG
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


?

What?


??? I got stock in the wording