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Ophelia barely alive; Philippe forms; dangerous Typhoon Nesat aims at Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:16 PM GMT on September 25, 2011

Tropical Storm Ophelia is barely alive today, as high wind shear and dry air continue to take their toll on the storm. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has an oval, highly-stretched center of circulation, with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Noon satellite image of Ophelia. It's tough to pick out a low-level center, and all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms lie several hundred miles to the east of the center. Ophelia is barely alive.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Tuesday morning. If Ophelia survives until tonight, the lower shear should allow the storm to make a bit of a comeback. Bermuda is the only land area that might be threatened by Ophelia, but it remains questionable whether or not Ophelia will still be a tropical storm when it makes its closest pass by Bermuda late in the week.

Philippe forms in the far eastern Atlantic
Tropical Storm Philippe formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa yesterday. Philippe is the 16th named storm this year, tying 2011 with 2008, 2003, and 1936 for 7th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Philippe's formation date of September 24 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 16th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier 16th storm. With only three of this year's sixteen storms reaching hurricane strength so far, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851. Philippe has a chance to become the season's fourth hurricane; the 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gives Philippe a 45% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Tuesday morning. Philippe is headed northwest and then north towards cooler waters, and is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 1:40 pm EDT September 24, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary weakens to Category 3 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary weakened slightly to a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week should be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of when Hilary might hit Baja is highly uncertain, though. The ECMWF model keeps Hilary offshore for the next 7 days, while the latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models predict Hilary could hit Central Baja on Friday.

Dangerous Typhoon Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Typhoon Nesat, is headed west at 10 mph towards Luzon Island in the Philippines. Nesat is just a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds, but has favorable conditions for intensification. Shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, Nesat is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major Category 3 or 4 typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 9 am local time Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters would Hillary still be a Tropical Storm if it hits the Baja Peninsula or would cooler sst & the stable marine air layer from California weaken it to a remnant low?
Thanks!
What about "else where in the tropics?"

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
What about "else where in the tropics?"



??

There isn't anything else out there really..

Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






Quoting Sfloridacat5:
What about "else where in the tropics?"





none of the forcast mode runs is forcasting any thing for the next 5 too 7 days



lol that what dr m will say
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

I understand that both NASA and Envisat have recently reported a two year decline in the global sea levels. Any thoughts?
Blob of moisture approaching the coast. Radar estimates of over 4" of rain off shore. There could be some flooding rains if this moisture moves on shore.





Colombian Heat Low enhanced thunderstorms?

Africa still producing:

i wounder if PHILIPPE will be are last name storm of the season it seems too me that wind shear is really starting too take overe some yes i no oct we all so need too start looking closer too home for name storms guss will see how oct holds up
18.3n58.8w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_12pmGMT_ATCF
18.2n59.0w, 18.2n60.0w are now the most recent positions
Starting 24Sept_12pmGMT and ending 25Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 25Sept_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 11mph(17.7k/h) on a heading of 270.2degrees(W)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over BlowingPoint,Anguilla ~14hours from now

Copy&paste 23.709n74.803w-rcy, 25.97n77.19w-myas, 17.5n55.6w-17.7n57.0w, 17.7n57.0w-17.9n58.0w, 17.9n58.0w-18.2n59.0w, 18.2n59.0w-18.2n60.0w, axa, 18.2n59.0w-18.17n63.1w into the GreatCircleMapper to include:
the island blob at 25.97n77.19w-myas as the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the25Sept_6amGMT*mapping,
and the island blob at 23.709n74.803w-rcy as the same for the 25Sept_12amGMT*mapping,
along with other info.

The previous mapping for 25Sept_6amGMT
the recon is up
Thanks Doc.
Miami NWS Discussion

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE WAS ALSO ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...AS THE
SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS ALSO LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXTENDING BACK SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
OVER THE CWA TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.3 INCHES. THIS IS 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.6 INCHES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY LIGHT TODAY OVER THE
CWA...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVERS.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE RAISE TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL OVER ALL
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE AS THE 500
MB TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE -7 TO -8 DEGREES RANGE.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Are GMT and UTC time the same?
new aoi forming in the extreme eastern gom ,looks to be slowly orgainizing at the surface,next invest???
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Are GMT and UTC time the same?




yes 4:56 PM
..anytime
Quoting MrMarcus:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

I understand that both NASA and Envisat have recently reported a two year decline in the global sea levels. Any thoughts?


That big dam in China is storing way to much water on land.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that the low level circulation center in association with Tropical Storm Ophelia appears to have dissipated and I strongly believe that Hurricane Hunters will find that Ophelia has degenerated into an open wave at best.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that the low level circulation center in association with Tropical Storm Ophelia appears to have dissipated and I strongly believe that Hurricane Hunters will find that Ophelia has degenerated into an open wave at best.

I agree.
Quoting Tazmanian:
the recon is up


when they are schedule to arrive?
Quoting stillwaiting:
new aoi forming in the extreme eastern gom ,looks to be slowly orgainizing at the surface,next invest???


Invest 91 has been deactivated:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al912011.ren
Link It appears that Ophelia COC is regenerating at lat. 18.4, 58 Long. ,
Hurricane Irene montage:

ADT T# is rising because the scene type has switched from SHEAR to UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION..Final T# is up to 3.3, with Adj T# and Raw T# both at 3.6. Its likely we will see 50 mph on Philippe at 5PM, unless convection completely dies out, which is the opposite of what it is doing right now.



3.3 - 51 knots (58-59 mph)
3.6 - 56/57 knots (64-65 mph)

SAB/TAFB are a lot lower, at 2.0, or 35 mph.
25/1145 UTC 12.6N 30.3W T2.0/2.0 PHILIPPE

Very deep convection firing with Tropical Storm Philippe (-70/-80C):

Quoting luigi18:


when they are schedule to arrive?



soon if not there now i would guss
Quoting KYDan:


That big dam in China is storing way to much water on land.
hmmmm interesting... looks like the 3 rivers dam reservoir will hold back approx 960 Billion cubic meters of water which would normally make its way into the East China sea annually. That's a lot of water but not compared to the total which is estimated at 1,386,000,000 cubic kilometers (332,519,000 cubic miles)
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ophelia = Fish

Philipe = Fish

What you still doing on here then. Don't you have like football to watch or a pool party or BBQ to attend. Or you can just sit here and watch two storms that are never going to have ANY impact on America whatsoever.
Hypocrite.

Do you not receive enough attention at home that you have to pretend like you're the Messiah of a blog? If you're going to give us advice, follow it yourself.

Thank you for the update Dr. Masters.
The Hurricane season is all but over for CONUS.  At this point, its definitely safe to say the Atlantic Hurricane season is virtually a done deal, CONUS impact wise.  The GoM has and is quiet with no future model support of anything.  Overall, this season had the potential to be huge but failed on many levels.  Most systems could not fully develop and the Atlantic was setup to detour all but 1 of the storms back to sea.
Don't worry though, I'm sure the prediction for next year will be "above" the average and that 2012 will be the year doomsday occurs.
+1
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hypocrite.

Do you not receive enough attention at home that you have to pretend like you're the Messiah of a blog? If you're going to give us advice, follow it yourself.

Thank you for the update Dr. Masters.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hypocrite.

Do you not receive enough attention at home that you have to pretend like you're the Messiah of a blog? If you're going to give us advice, follow it yourself.

Thank you for the update Dr. Masters.


Just stop arguing with him, he is a troll, and needs to be ignored. Said it yesterday and got jumped...but now look.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that the low level circulation center in association with Tropical Storm Ophelia appears to have dissipated and I strongly believe that Hurricane Hunters will find that Ophelia has degenerated into an open wave at best.
Apparently a COC is regenerating to the east of the alleged COC mention in the last advisory, around 18N,58W,if you look carefully at satelite Vis. images.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Apparently a COC is regenerating to the east of the alleged COC mention in the last advisory, around 18N,58W,if you look carefully at satelite Vis. images.


I see nothing at 58W 18N besides a little burst of convection. What is left of the LLC is stretched out between 60W-62W and 18N-19N.
Ophelia too me has degenerated into an open wave
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that the low level circulation center in association with Tropical Storm Ophelia appears to have dissipated and I strongly believe that Hurricane Hunters will find that Ophelia has degenerated into an open wave at best.


I was going to ask something similiar - like does anyone actually see a tropical storm in whatever that is northeast of Puerto Rico?

I agree BTW
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just stop arguing with him, he is a troll, and needs to be ignored. Said it yesterday and got jumped...but now look.

No one listened because you are cursed.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

No one listened because you are cursed.

Don't bring that up! XD
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Where's the comment to go along with the post? Are you slacking? :S
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't bring that up! XD

LoL Too late. Your curse continues.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Where's the comment to go along with the post? Are you slacking? :S


I don't think a comment is required to show that Philippe is becoming better organized.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I don't think a comment is required to show that Philippe is becoming better organized.

I think so.

I'm just kidding, but, according to TropicalAnalystwx13 rule #45, every post associated with imagery MUST have a comment.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LoL Too late. Your curse continues.

No...because I'm not getting post #666 tonight. I'll leave before I can if I have to. :P
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 /1001.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.7 3.7
If accurate, Philippe would be a 65 mph TS.

50 or even 60mph at 5 pm is possible.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 /1001.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.7 3.7
If accurate, Philippe would be a 65 mph TS.

50 or even 60mph at 5 pm is possible.


I'm guessing SAB/TAFB haven't been updated?

25/1145 UTC 12.6N 30.3W T2.0/2.0 PHILIPPE
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think so.

I'm just kidding, but, according to TropicalAnalystwx13 rule #45, every post associated with imagery MUST have a comment.


No...because I'm not getting post #666 tonight. I'll leave before I can if I have to. :P

Unless the blog speeds up.
Africa is still producing:

16 TropicalAnalystwx13 "Are GMT and UTC time the same?"

Yes in the sense that eg 6:35amGMT is 6:35UTC.
And no, because GMT runs on a 12hour"clock" while UTC runs on a 24hour"clock":
eg 6:35pmGMT is 18:35UTC
Quoting Orcasystems:


??

There isn't anything else out there really..

Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI








Why is Ophelia's "centre" located where there is no cloud?
Ophelia
Quoting MrMarcus:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

I understand that both NASA and Envisat have recently reported a two year decline in the global sea levels. Any thoughts?


Where did you find that?
And what are you getting at?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Why is Ophelia's "centre" located where there is no cloud?




high wind shear
Quoting KYDan:


That big dam in China is storing way to much water on land.


I highly doubt that would affect GLOBAL sea levels, though. It's more likely that La Nina is involved.
Yikes NESAT CAT 4 at landfall in Luzon, Phillipines.
Eww...
91L is now just a frontal trough pulling moisture into the coast of North Carolina while overlying the Gulf Stream.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
91L is now just a frontal trough pulling moisture into the coast of North Carolina while overlying the Gulf Stream.




91L is gone its now ex 91L
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 17:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 16L in 2011
Storm Name: Ophelia (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 17:33:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°20'N 60°36'W (18.3333N 60.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 358 miles (577 km) to the E (91°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 62° at 23kts (From the ENE at ~ 26.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 113 nautical miles (130 statute miles) to the NNW (328°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1014mb (29.94 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 291m (955ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 298m (978ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 16:56:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 95 nautical miles (109 statute miles) to the NNW (330°) from the flight level center
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Unless the blog speeds up.


*waves magic wand* BlogZoom, commence! {Barking is heard in the distance} - WHOOPS.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Nesat is about to bring a wall of rain to the Philippines.

Quoting HurricaneVSafety:
earlier this year i boldly stated that florida would not get hit by a tropical system this year.

i was brutually bashed and humuliated.

but I have been correct, and you were wrong.

that is all.





i cant here you
Quoting stormpetrol:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 17:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 16L in 2011
Storm Name: Ophelia (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 17:33:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°20'N 60°36'W (18.3333N 60.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 358 miles (577 km) to the E (91°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 62° at 23kts (From the ENE at ~ 26.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 113 nautical miles (130 statute miles) to the NNW (328°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1014mb (29.94 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 291m (955ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 298m (978ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 16:56:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 95 nautical miles (109 statute miles) to the NNW (330°) from the flight level center


thanks
Truly odd. TropicalAnalystwx13 question was the last comment after I had just refreshed.
Then Patrap's answer immediately following appeared when I posted a reply... which appeared 40comments later on the next page.

That seems to happen rarely but often enough to be noticeable.
Anybody else experiencing the same glitch?
Quoting Tazmanian:





i cant here you
its hear taz
Quoting Chicklit:


I wonder whether that low pressure system over the Midwest will combine with ex-91L-trough, and bring flooding rains to the Maritimes. Is that the same low pressure core that's been stationary over the Chicago-Wisconsin area for 48 hours?

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its hear taz


Taz: it's HERE

Keeper: IT'S here
Recon confirms, at least to me, that Ophelia has degenerated into a 30 mph Tropical Wave.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm guessing SAB/TAFB haven't been updated?

25/1145 UTC 12.6N 30.3W T2.0/2.0 PHILIPPE


That would be correct.
Quoting HurricaneVSafety:
earlier this year i boldly stated that florida would not get hit by a tropical system this year.

i was brutually bashed and humuliated.

but I have been correct, and you were wrong.

that is all.

...and it still is a pointless and careless statement to make considering it's only Sept.25. What are you hoping to gain by starting this again?
Visible satellite imagery shows that Tropical Storm Philippe is becoming better defined. A curved band on the western side of the storm is becoming better established, while outflow is becoming better defined as well. Deeper convection has been developing atop the low-level circulation, and it is beginning to set up a a band on the southern semicircle. An intensity of 50 mph seems to be a good bet at 5PM.

25/1745 UTC 18.4N 60.6W TOO WEAK OPHELIA -- Atlantic

Ophelia won't be a TS at 5PM.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Taz: it's HERE

Keeper: IT'S here



LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That would be correct.

mkay.
ATCF says Ophelia is nothing but a mere low:

AL, 16, 2011092518, , BEST, 0, 184N, 606W, 30, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
Thunderstorms exploding over South Florida.


Quoting HurricaneVSafety:
earlier this year i boldly stated that florida would not get hit by a tropical system this year.

i was brutually bashed and humuliated.

but I have been correct, and you were wrong.

that is all.


Earlier this year in your case is at most 5 weeks ago.
Member Since: August 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Visible satellite imagery shows that Tropical Storm Philippe is becoming better defined. A curved band on the western side of the storm is becoming better established, while outflow is becoming better defined as well. Deeper convection has been developing atop the low-level circulation, and it is beginning to set up a a band on the southern semicircle. An intensity of 50 mph seems to be a good bet at 5PM.





looks whats be hid Philippe
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS NO MORE

AL, 16, 2011092518, , BEST, 0, 184N, 606W, 30, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Ophelia is nothing but a mere low:

AL, 16, 2011092518, , BEST, 0, 184N, 606W, 30, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,


That confirms it - Ophelia is dead.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That confirms it - Ophelia is dead.
good ridance lol. now we have philipe hows getting stronger and a new wave off africa. also early october we have to watch out for low pressure in the southwestern carribean
Its interesting really...The National Hurricane Center's intensity forecast for what was Tropical Depression Seventeen at the time showed that Philippe should've been 60 mph at this time, but never showed it reaching hurricane status. With it being at 45 mph, they show it reaching hurricane status. Weird... :P



Philippe up to 45 knots, pressure down to 1000 mb:

AL, 17, 2011092518, , BEST, 0, 129N, 313W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 20, 40, 40, 1013, 200, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Africa is still producing:

Africa knows how to stay in the fast lane when it come to nutreal season.
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 17, 2011092518, , BEST, 0, 129N, 313W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 20, 40, 40, 1013, 200, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,


As expected...50 mph.
Quoting Tazmanian:




looks whats be hid Philippe
I noticed that to Taz.Looks like Africa won't be shutting down anytime soon.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I noticed that to Taz.Looks like Africa won't be shutting down anytime soon.




i think that could be are last one
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS NO MORE

AL, 16, 2011092518, , BEST, 0, 184N, 606W, 30, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,


At last! If that is a TS then I'm Mickey Mouse. XD
Quoting JLPR2:


At last! If that is a TS then I'm Mickey Mouse. XD

I thought you were....?
For Grothar...The "Big" Picture...

Quoting HurricaneVSafety:
earlier this year i boldly stated that florida would not get hit by a tropical system this year.

i was brutually bashed and humuliated.

but I have been correct, and you were wrong.

that is all.


Florida's' biggest threat many times occurs after this date. To make that statement earlier this year was bold, to come out now on September 25th and claim you were right is stupid.
Looks like some rain building in the NE Gulf around Cedar Key. We could sure use some more rain here in North Florida.



Formerly scooster67. I got a different Laptop,forgot my password, and old email has been deleted.
The latest ECMWF and GFS not showing anything interesting in the long range. Any W Caribbean action looks to be getting pushed further and further back...yaaaawn
Sorry but these models are just wayy off. Already have (Tropical Low) Ophelia moving NW, which is not the case. Sure a system should recurve from that trough, but doesn't mean it will. I have to at least agree somewhat with the BAMM runs, since we are dealing with a shallow/weak system. (Tropical Low) Ophelia may head more west then what most models are showing. I've been saying this with (Tropical Low) Ophelia for a while and have been shut down by some bloggers saying I wishcast this to hit Florida. Sorry, but going with the flow of the pattern, (Tropical Low) Ophelia should continue west to WNW for some time, especially if she remains a remnant Tropical Low.
Hilary's still hanging in there.
Hey I would like to just say that I am new to the blog.
:)
Quoting Ameister12:
Hilary's still hanging in there.

Yeah it still looks pretty good.
Quoting Hurricyclone:
Hey I would like to just say that I am new to the blog.
:)

Yeah it still looks pretty good.

Welcome!
Where are you?
Florida I think?
107. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I thought you were....?


Ha...ha *Mickey Mouse laugh* XD

The most amazing thing that could happen is for Ophelia to make a impressive comeback just after 5pm.
Quoting pottery:

Welcome!
Where are you?
Florida I think?

MD.
Quoting Hurricyclone:

MD.

Is that Maryland?
Sorry, I am not familiar with all the abreviations...
Quoting pottery:

Is that Maryland?
Sorry, I am not familiar with all the abreviations...

Yep.
Don't worry, your not the only one.
Quoting pottery:

Is that Maryland?
Sorry, I am not familiar with all the abreviations...

I am in Trinidad, 11n 61w.
Hot, humid day, with showers.
As I expected, ATCF and Hurricane Hunters pretty much confirm my expectations that we no longer have Tropical Storm Ophelia.
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Yep.
Don't worry, your not the only one.

LOL, thanks.
exOphelia is now a closed low on the 25Sept_6pmGMT_ATCF, so...
...it's time for some Texcasting.
Starting 24Sept_6pmGMT and ending 25Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent (TropicaStorm then)exOphelia's path.
And 289.3degrees(WNW) is the initial heading on the straightline projection
from exOphelia's 2nd most recent ATCF position to:
its most recent ATCF position;
GrandTurk of the Turks&Caicos;
and Brownsville,Texas.

Copy&paste 25.97n77.19w-myas, 18.17n63.1w-axa, 17.7n57.0w-17.9n58.0w, 17.9n58.0w-18.2n59.0w, 18.2n59.0w-18.2n60.0w, 18.2n60.0w-18.4n60.6w, gdt, 18.2n60.0w-21.51n71.131w, 18.2n60.0w-bro into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 25Sept_12pmGMT
Quoting JLPR2:


Ha...ha *Mickey Mouse laugh* XD

The most amazing thing that could happen is for Ophelia to make a impressive comeback just after 5pm.


Rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane...LOL.

We all know that isn't happening...I hope. :P
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that the low level circulation center in association with Tropical Storm Ophelia appears to have dissipated and I strongly believe that Hurricane Hunters will find that Ophelia has degenerated into an open wave at best.


I agree .This looks like the end of the Atlantic Season, the Caribbean will have to watched in October. I do not see as much shear as has been in the Atlantic. South Florida has been very fortunate so far.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Eww...

Looks hideous,
I don't know which was worse,
Emily or Ophelia?
:/
Quoting SouthFLNative:


I agree .This looks like the end of the Atlantic Season, the Caribbean will have to watched in October. I do not see as much shear as has been in the Atlantic. South Florida has been very fortunate so far.


That is for sure. Thanks to the persistent troughing pattern over the Eastern United States, the most dangerous storms this season curved before making an approach to us.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
As I expected, ATCF and Hurricane Hunters pretty much confirm my expectations that we no longer have Tropical Storm Ophelia.

It's been a funny season in the Atl with dry air and shear.
I was not expecting the storms to be so affected.
Thought that some would definitely be stronger.

That's Tropical Weather for you!
Quoting cchsweatherman:


That is for sure. Thanks to the persistent troughing pattern over the Eastern United States, the most dangerous storms this season curved before making an approach to us.

And this same pattern will end up taking storms to Florida.
122. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Looks hideous,
I don't know which was worse,
Emily or Ophelia?
:/


Emily.

Ophelia had a nice run. Emily barely had a closed LLC her entire life.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And this same pattern will end up taking storms to Florida.


That's entirely dependent on if we ever get anything to form in the Western Caribbean this season. Seems like the timeline for supposed development in the region continues to get pushed back further and further.
124. JLPR2
Ophelia just doesn't give up, developing convection. The islands could have some flooding problems once it moves closer to us.

Quoting Hurricyclone:

MD.
Maryland!!.What part?.Is it close to D.C?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maryland!!.What part?.Is it close to D.C?

Close,
just north of annapolis,
pasadena
any news on hilary? ATCF update on her yet?
Quoting cchsweatherman:


That's entirely dependent on if we ever get anything to form in the Western Caribbean this season. Seems like the timeline for supposed development in the region continues to get pushed back further and further.


I'd find it hard to believe we wouldn't.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
any news on hilary? ATCF update on her yet?


Still 125 mph.

EP, 09, 2011092518, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1099W, 110, 953, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1006, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D,
Water over flowing the pool and flooding the back patio. We've had about 3" of rain this afternoon at my location in South Fort Myers Fl.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


That's entirely dependent on if we ever get anything to form in the Western Caribbean this season. Seems like the timeline for supposed development in the region continues to get pushed back further and further.


Agree bigtime! Something has to get going first and that isn't a given with the way this season is going. It looks almost impossible for even a weak wave to make it that far W. Most likely were going to have to have homegrown development in that region here on out.
Quoting HurricaneVSafety:
earlier this year i boldly stated that florida would not get hit by a tropical system this year.

i was brutually bashed and humuliated.

but I have been correct, and you were wrong.

that is all.
Uh.... I'd admit to being wrong
1) if I'd actually bashed u, which I don't recall, and
2) if the year was over. IOW, tell me this again if it's still true on 30 Nov.
I think October will be just as dead with fishies and struggling boring storms...jmo
Quoting JLPR2:
Ophelia just doesn't give up, developing convection. The islands could have some flooding problems once it moves closer to us.



Ophelia is a Zombieeee!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Still 125 mph.

EP, 09, 2011092518, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1099W, 110, 953, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1006, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D,
haha i called it yesterday :P i knew she would weaken to a 3 today. now if only she stays a 3 for the rest of today ill be right again :P im think she weakens to a 2 tomorrow afternoon
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Still 125 mph.

EP, 09, 2011092518, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1099W, 110, 953, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1006, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D,

Wow still looks good.
Full state view. Abundant moisture moving in from the western GOM.
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Close,
just north of annapolis,
pasadena
Not to far from D.C.It's good to have someone else on the blog that doesn't live 100's of miles away from from you so that you can discuss the weather going on in the area.


Appalachian State flooded this morning.
Quoting reedzone:
Sorry but these models are just wayy off. Already have (Tropical Low) Ophelia moving NW, which is not the case. Sure a system should recurve from that trough, but doesn't mean it will. I have to at least agree somewhat with the BAMM runs, since we are dealing with a shallow/weak system. (Tropical Low) Ophelia may head more west then what most models are showing. I've been saying this with (Tropical Low) Ophelia for a while and have been shut down by some bloggers saying I wishcast this to hit Florida. Sorry, but going with the flow of the pattern, (Tropical Low) Ophelia should continue west to WNW for some time, especially if she remains a remnant Tropical Low.
I suppose this implies more rain, yet again, for PR???? I have to admit I was having a hard time following the reasoning behind a former TS heading off to the NW and NNW like that.... plus I have a hard time validating pple who think saying a Twave will hit FL is Florida-casting.... as if Twaves were somehow out of the norm for FL during hurricane season....

Anyone else see that little system in the far NE Atlantic? It blew up and is running in front of a trough out there.
Oregon is currently being strangely quiet.



Meanwhile, Hurricane Hillary is sustaining herself in the very warm remaining waters of the area off the coast of Aculpulco. Typhoon Nesat in the West Pacific is doing the same, churning away a 30C+ zone near the Philippines.
Ophelia is a viral system that should not be underestimated.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Water over flowing the pool and flooding the back patio. We've had about 3" of rain this afternoon at my location in South Fort Myers Fl.


This past couple weeks has been just what FL needed to wrap-up the rainy season. Less drought and fires later.
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Dr. Bongevine suggests we keep the following in mind when discussing Major Hurricane Quiznos: It has the capability of becoming "toasted" by the loop current. One minute, 120 mph; you take your eye off of it.....165 mph gusting to 205!!!!. Id hate to get sandwiched in Wilmington by Ophelia and Major Hurricane Quiznos!

Lol?
Ophelia wants to make a comeback!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane...LOL.

We all know that isn't happening...I hope. :P
Better not.... lol

Quoting SouthFLNative:


I agree .This looks like the end of the Atlantic Season, the Caribbean will have to watched in October. I do not see as much shear as has been in the Atlantic. South Florida has been very fortunate so far.
I haven't heard any singing yet. I still expect a couple more systems in October. I also know seasons that slow down a lot at the end of Sept can have a bit of a "bang" effect at the end of October, so I'm not ruling out anything. But all will be revealed in time.

Quoting robert88:
I think October will be just as dead with fishies and struggling boring storms...jmo
Just as possible as cat 5s hitting anywhere from Honduras to Newfoundland, I guess. I still expect well see a couple more of SOMEthing....
Nevermind, it looks like a bunch of little disorganized swirls out their based on the European satellite.
Finally had a bit of a hold up with the rain here.... it's still mostly cloudy, has been pretty much all day. After a relatively dry spring and early summer, it feels weird to have so much water lying around.... lol
Quoting reedzone:
Sorry but these models are just wayy off. Already have (Tropical Low) Ophelia moving NW, which is not the case. Sure a system should recurve from that trough, but doesn't mean it will. I have to at least agree somewhat with the BAMM runs, since we are dealing with a shallow/weak system. (Tropical Low) Ophelia may head more west then what most models are showing. I've been saying this with (Tropical Low) Ophelia for a while and have been shut down by some bloggers saying I wishcast this to hit Florida. Sorry, but going with the flow of the pattern, (Tropical Low) Ophelia should continue west to WNW for some time, especially if she remains a remnant Tropical Low.


I agree, I also think Phillippe will move further west than expected also, in fact it looks to be moving due west now !
I don't think the Cape Verde season is over...not quite yet:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think the Cape Verde season is over...not quite yet:



One question:
Is this the latest a cape verde season has gone on?
Quoting Hurricyclone:


One question:
Is this the latest a cape verde season has gone on?

Definitely not.

Some Cape Verde seasons have started as early as July, and ended as late as October.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Definitely not.

Some Cape Verde seasons have started as early as July, and ended as late as October/November.

Oh.
*facepalm*
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Oh.
*facepalm*


lol.

Random note: Making Wikipedia articles take a lot of work. :P
This year is so much nicer than last year, we are headed towards October and still getting extreme tropical rains here in Central Florida. Yearly total:66.27 in.
Quoting Jedkins01:
This year is so much nicer than last year, we are headed towards October and still getting extreme tropical rains here in Central Florida. Yearly total:66.27 in.

Wasn't it just a month and a half ago when that total was near nothing?

Wow.
Quoting VolunteerGator:
Looks like some rain building in the NE Gulf around Cedar Key. We could sure use some more rain here in North Florida.



Formerly scooster67. I got a different Laptop,forgot my password, and old email has been deleted.


That's part of the same in-flow pattern, which will combine with the 91L front. After coalescing over the Appalachians, this frontal system will move north-northeast.
Cape Verde season will keep going as long as no cold dry air plunges down over the Eastern Atlantic.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Cape Verde season will keep going as long as no cold dry air plunges down over the Eastern Atlantic.


Well, that is not necessarily true. After September, the African Easterly Jet begins to stop producing as many strong and well-defined tropical waves. Additionally, the Sea Surface Temperatures really begin to cool off, and wind shear increases.

We may have one more Cape Verde storm, but I wouldn't count on it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wasn't it just a month and a half ago when that total was near nothing?

Wow.


The atmospheric pattern has shifted from drought to flood, yet again.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wasn't it just a month and a half ago when that total was near nothing?

Wow.


Well before the rains kicked in around late June, I had only 13 inches in the rain bucket. Last year we finished the entire year at 39 which was 13 below normal. This year I am above normal. Which is good because I hate dry weather with a passion.

The ground is pretty saturated around here to say the least, I'm glad I live pretty close to the coast and not inland cause we would probably have some flooding issues. At least the ground can handle a lot of rain too even inland. Wherever there are open fields there is swampy ground with mostly water, mosquitoes are terrible because of this around here but its great for the environment and I love rain and thunderstorms so I'm not complaining. We have been getting reliable downpours every week since the end of June. Some weeks wetter than others of course. We had 2.76 on Thursday, 0.68 on Friday, 0.29 yesterday and 1.79 today.


What is also interesting is that models have shortened dramatically in what was forecast to be an extended drier pattern following this wetter pattern. The models are only showing drier weather for a couple of days and deep tropical moisture returning next weekend as we had towards the start of the typical dry season period.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Definitely not.

Some Cape Verde seasons have started as early as July, and ended as late as October/November.


November? Example?
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well before the rains kicked in around late June, I had only 13 inches in the rain bucket. Last year we finished the entire year at 39 which was 13 below normal. This year I am above normal. Which is good because I hate dry weather with a passion.

The ground is pretty saturated around here to say the least, I'm glad I live pretty close to the coast and not inland. Wherever there are open fields there is swampy ground with mostly water, mosquitoes are terrible because of this around here but its great for the environment and I love rain and thunderstorms so I'm not complaining. We have been getting reliable downpours every week since the end of June. Some weeks wetter than others of course. We had 2.96 on Thursday, 0.68 on Friday, 0.29 yesterday and 1.79 today.


I see.

Its been rainy here the past week from that Cold Front/Cutoff low/whatever it is. We've probably picked up somewhere over 2", which doesn't seem like much to you guys. :P
Time: 19:44:00Z
Coordinates: 17.8N 61.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 582.9 mb (~ 17.21 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 4,638 meters (~ 15,217 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.6 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 310° at 2 knots (From the NW at ~ 2.3 mph)
Air Temp: 2.3°C (~ 36.1°F)
Dew Pt: -7.8°C (~ 18.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 3 knots (~ 3.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data

This probably the actual LLC of Ophelia
The heaviest rains from Typhoon Nesat are just east of the southern part of the Luzon region, close to coming ashore. Nesat is a dangerous and extremely large storm.



Did I implode the blog?
There's mixed news about that swirl (P33L) just coming off of Africa: GFS and HWRF develop it, but not a lot; ECMWF says it will stay a nameless blob; and both UKMET and NOGAPS dissipate it in just a day or two. IOW, for now, the prognosis isn't great. It does look good, though:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Pouch

FWIW, there appears to be yet another candidate wave over the middle of the continent.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 19:44:00Z
Coordinates: 17.8N 61.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 582.9 mb (~ 17.21 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 4,638 meters (~ 15,217 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.6 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 310° at 2 knots (From the NW at ~ 2.3 mph)
Air Temp: 2.3°C (~ 36.1°F)
Dew Pt: -7.8°C (~ 18.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 3 knots (~ 3.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data

This probably the actual LLC of Ophelia


so the low Ophelia is jogging sw!
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's mixed news about that swirl (P33L) just coming off of Africa: GFS and HWRF develop it, but not a lot; ECMWF says it will stay a nameless blob; and both UKMET and NOGAPS dissipate it in just a day or two. IOW, for now, the prognosis isn't great. It does look good, though:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Pouch

FWIW, there appears to be yet another candidate wave over the middle of the continent.


The African wave train is still going, churning out tropical waves using moisture from the Indian Ocean. However, the eastern-most part of the wave train shows no moisture over Somalia, as that is all low cloud.

Well, I guess I'm out for now. It must be a very slow blog day.
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's mixed news about that swirl (P33L) just coming off of Africa: GFS and HWRF develop it, but not a lot; ECMWF says it will stay a nameless blob; and both UKMET and NOGAPS dissipate it in just a day or two. IOW, for now, the prognosis isn't great. It does look good, though:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Pouch

FWIW, there appears to be yet another candidate wave over the middle of the continent.

Neither the GFS, nor the HWRF, develop it. At best, they show it as a tropical wave.
Well we're up to .87" for the day. I think 25" from late June till now..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I see.

Its been rainy here the past week from that Cold Front/Cutoff low/whatever it is. We've probably picked up somewhere over 2", which doesn't seem like much to you guys. :P



Well, that's still a nice amount, its not like everyone has had as much rain as us. Some have had even more than me but it seems like my place has been sort of a local bulls eye for heavy rain this year. Which is good cause for a while it seemed like I would get less than pretty much my entire area over the last several years. Rainfall in Florida can have a very wide rang in distribution. For example I saw a report on the drought in South Florida by NOAA, they showed some places still have a deficit in the Southeast coastal areas while some places over the interior Everglades have had so much rain that they went from being 20 inches below normal to now 15 inches above normal. There are some rain gauges that have had an amazing 40 to 60 inches just since the rain season kicked in while other locations as little as 15.
I wouldn't feel threatend by anything in the Atlantic. Its going to take a storm in the Caribbean to threaten the U.S.

Quoting charlottefl:
Well we're up to .87" for the day. I think 25" from late June till now..


Just over 3" at my location in South Fort Myers (Gateway). Pool overflowed and the patio flooded with the last storm.
I am rather new to the blog too, from Long Island, just want to officially say hi :) I've learned a lot over the last few weeks lurking around here.. Always been interested in weather and the earth since I was about 8. The amount of information I've obtained from this blog and comments has been astounding!

I can't remember how I originally heard about WU, but I know it was about the time that Irene came through. First time experiencing a hurricane, then tropical storm, here for me on LI.. was a huge adrenaline rush, I must say! Though our neighbors can't say the same, their fence was destroyed by a giant limb from our tree.. and then our power line caught fire in two spots above, in front of, our house and the trees were on fire as well. Fire department got it out, and power was gone for 4 days.. oops! It seems our property caused a lot of damage ;)

..Thank goodness for generators!

Anyway, sorry to ramble, it was my first time with a storm like that and it was absolutely intense.. can't imagine the intensity of a Cat 4 or 5.. or even a 2, at that!
Quoting charlottefl:
Well we're up to .87" for the day. I think 25" from late June till now..


Nice, Ive had just over 50 since late June lol, but like I said I'm a bit of a local bulls eye this year. Our normal yearly total is around 52.00.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I wouldn't feel threatend by anything in the Atlantic. Its going to take a storm in the Caribbean to threaten the U.S.



well some come from the atlantic then through the caribbean
We've probably had around 10" of rain since June, 8" of which came from Hurricane Irene, lol.

We'll still roughly 10" in drought, but I don't know how, considering we get these little afternoon thunderstorms almost daily.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Nice, Ive had just over 50 since late June lol, but like I said I'm a bit of a local bulls eye this year. Our normal yearly total is around 52.00.


Yeah we've had quite a bit less than normal this rainy season, last year tons of rain. Guess it's your turn this year.
Long-time reader but first-time poster. Lived in CA most of my life but in Alabama for the last six years, so hurricanes are of more immediate interest now. Thanks to all the regular (and knowledgeable) posters here that have helped to educate me.

It has been both surprising and discouraging to see nothing develop in the GOM and give us at least a tropical storm. We really depend on these for most of our general summer rainfall and we are about 13" below now. Doesn't look too good for at least the next week or so. :(

One comment on Dr. Master's last blog. If we are going to name every tropical wave that even comes close to looking like a tropical storm, we certainly will increase the number of named storms we have. TS Jose and the recently deceased Invest 91L come to mind. Since only three of these named storms have developed into hurricanes, which is average for this time of year, I'm afraid we risk "the boy who called wolf syndrome" if we keep this up. Not trying to start a flame war, just an observation from someone who spent a good part his life in emergency management.
Quoting charlottefl:


Yeah we've had quite a bit less than normal this rainy season, last year tons of rain. Guess it's your turn this year.


This year the Caribbean has the front door closed. I think we'll need a home grown system, because everything this year that forms in the Atlantic is pulled north.

Quote was meant for Will40.
Watch out Florida Ophelia is firing once again.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


So, have you accepted the global warming doctrine yet?

Oops, off topic.


Well the Earth is obviously warming in more recent modern times. But its foolish and arrogant to say that we know exactly what the weather was like 2 million years ago world wide. Or that we can predict what is will be 50 years from now. However, that is really irrelevant. The reason why I say so, is that scientists do have plenty of evidence to show that CO2 does cause warming, to what degree and how it really effects things long term we do not know. Furthermore there are many other environmentally hazardous things we do to the ecosystem/climate of the world. That being said, we know enough about the world around us today to know its time to stop being so wasteful, that we are harming the planet, and that like the human body, the effects seem slow in the moment but will lead to dire consequences if improvement isn't at least a goal.

We must learn to be less wasteful, and be more mindful of this beautiful world we live in. That's my way of seeing it.


I'm not sure if you have heard of "Earth Ships". But, they are a brilliant idea. Maybe when I graduate college I'll have my own version of one.
Hazel was practically already in the Caribbean. That's what we need a very low latitude storm entering the Caribbean.

Anything else will be lifted up and out to soon.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Hazel was practically already in the Caribbean. That's what we need a very low latitude storm entering the Caribbean.

Anything else will be lifted up and out to soon.



she was a wave off the coast of africa first
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We've probably had around 10" of rain since June, 8" of which came from Hurricane Irene, lol.

We'll still roughly 10" in drought, but I don't know how, considering we get these little afternoon thunderstorms almost daily.


Its probably because you aren't getting the more long lived down pours like e have been getting up here. Much of Central Florida had consistent rain events for a while. We have had days where we get periods of intense convection all days, many times this rain season. Its like a tropical jungle around here.
Quoting will40:



she was a wave off the coast of africa first


As long as a wave stays a wave its got a chance. But as soon as it becomes more organized, its going north.



Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Just over 3" at my location in South Fort Myers (Gateway). Pool overflowed and the patio flooded with the last storm.
Share some of that rain Please, LOL. Trace since June 25th and it is 104 degrees here now, unreal Texas heatwave continues, it should be like 85 this time of the year.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


As long as a wave stays a wave its got a chance. But as soon as it becomes more organized, its going north.






In early October 1954, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa and was spotted on October 5, roughly 80 km (50 mi) east of the island of Grenada. Sufficiently organized to be deemed a hurricane, the original hurricane hunter wind measurement of 110 km/h (70 mph) soon increased to 160 km/h (100 mph) at the centre, with a forward speed of 16 km/h (10 mph).[1]
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Neither the GFS, nor the HWRF, develop it. At best, they show it as a tropical wave.

Perhaps I should have taken pains to clarify the phrase "not a lot"; both GFS and HWRF show it having some persistence, and neither drops it the way UKMET and NOGAPS do.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...HILARY REMAINS JUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 110.3W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES
I wouldn't be worried by any formed Tropical System (T.S. or Hurricane) in the Atlantic. They will be pulled north well before making it to the U.S.

A wave or weak low entering the Caribbean is what we need. Or a home grown system forming off a stalled frontal boundry.

Ophelia now officially done !!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I wouldn't be worried by any formed Tropical System (T.S. or Hurricane) in the Atlantic. They will be pulled north well before making it to the U.S.

A wave or weak low entering the Caribbean is what we need. Or a home grown system forming off a stalled frontal boundry.




i made my point and you made yours we will keep it at that
Quoting charlottefl:


Yeah we've had quite a bit less than normal this rainy season, last year tons of rain. Guess it's your turn this year.


Yeah that's how it works! Generally actual totals in Florida tend to fall on either extreme of a rainfall average at random per year. The reason why is that we get most of our rain not from uniform rainfall distribution that comes from large scale lift associated with low pressure. Rather we get extremely moist and unstable air masses that allow for convective patterns that favor extreme rainfall in some areas repeatedly while missing others. For example. My yearly average rain is around 52.00 inches. But since Ive lived here it, either ends up 10+ inches below the normal for one year or 10+ above for another, which eventually evens out to that average. The driest Ive seen living here was only 34 inches while the wettest Ive seen was 78.
Quoting BDADUDE:


Without being too much confident, the N Islands might get some rain.
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 60.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES
I little weather overhead and i'm will be happy :)
Wow.

Philippe is up to 60 mph.
Quoting will40:



In early October 1954, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa and was spotted on October 5, roughly 80 km (50 mi) east of the island of Grenada. Sufficiently organized to be deemed a hurricane, the original hurricane hunter wind measurement of 110 km/h (70 mph) soon increased to 160 km/h (100 mph) at the centre, with a forward speed of 16 km/h (10 mph).[1]


Based on the current pattern, I seriously dought anything formed in the Atlantic will threaten the U.S. for the rest of this year.

We'll be looking to the Caribbean in the next couple weeks if anything's going to threaten the U.S.

Climatology supports my thinking.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Finally had a bit of a hold up with the rain here.... it's still mostly cloudy, has been pretty much all day. After a relatively dry spring and early summer, it feels weird to have so much water lying around.... lol


Yeah rain was looong and steady today.
But you see that storm yesterday? dang... was insane!
Ophelia is now a open wave, lol so she will travel more west towards me ..
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...PHILIPPE STRENGHTHENS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 31.7W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Quoting will40:



i made my point and you made yours we will keep it at that


Cool.
I would love to be proved wrong. That's what so cool about the weather, it does things its not supposed to all the time.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
True........but at least ghost of Ophelia is headed WEST!!

I doubt that it will regenerate its tropical characteristics.
lol I guest I'm in the ignore list of many
Quoting Hurricyclone:

I doubt that it will regenerate its tropical characteristics.


Like PR NWS said a couple of days ago : WHO KNOWS...
Quoting CaribBoy:


Like PR NWS said a couple of days ago : WHO KNOWS...

Yeah, but it's awfully rugged looking
But I agree, Who knows?
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah that's how it works! Generally actual totals in Florida tend to fall on either extreme of a rainfall average at random per year. The reason why is that we get most of our rain not from uniform rainfall distribution that comes from large scale lift associated with low pressure. Rather we get extremely moist and unstable air masses that allow for convective patterns that favor extreme rainfall in some areas repeatedly while missing others. For example. My yearly average rain is around 52.00 inches. But since Ive lived here it, either ends up 10+ inches below the normal for one year or 10+ above for another, which eventually evens out to that average. The driest Ive seen living here was only 34 inches while the wettest Ive seen was 78.


Not sure about the driest but in 1995 we had 100"
220. JLPR2


If Ophelia would have moved slower it would still be a TS.
Quoting sar2401:
One comment on Dr. Master's last blog. If we are going to name every tropical wave that even comes close to looking like a tropical storm, we certainly will increase the number of named storms we have. TS Jose and the recently deceased Invest 91L come to mind. Since only three of these named storms have developed into hurricanes, which is average for this time of year, I'm afraid we risk "the boy who called wolf syndrome" if we keep this up. Not trying to start a flame war, just an observation from someone who spent a good part his life in emergency management.

The forecasters at the NHC--a group of professionals with literally centuries of combined education and experience in dealing with tropical weather--have lists of criteria that any particular cyclone must meet in order to be classified as a tropical storm. If those professionals are of the opinion that those criteria are met, they classify it; if not, they don't. It's really that simple. I don't believe for one second that they "name every tropical wave that even comes close to looking like a tropical storm". In fact, for every time I've heard someone say that, I've hear someone else accuse them of not naming tropical storms that they should. ;-) Now, there are certainly instances where a decision as to whether those criteria are met comes down to a judgement call, but all in all, that judgement is based on many long decades of watching these storms. I, for one, defer to that judgement, and think they get it right almost every time.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
True........but ghost of Ophelia is headed WEST!!


Doesn't matter, full latitude trough later this week will catch whatever form Ophelia takes by then - Eastern Seaboard closed for business...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maryland!!.What part?.Is it close to D.C?

I've been up there. Everything in Md is close to DC. Heck, I'm in Houston and I'm not far from Austin.
Link
Amazing footage of irene in NC I found on youtube..
Just search Hurricane Irene in the search bar btw
Hi Everyone,

Been off for a bit. I am assuming the storms are pretty much ending now or is there any model support of anything coming up? GOM,Caribean or Atlantic (besides the 2 that are there now)...
Quoting Chucktown:
Ophelia now officially done !!


she is firing back
Still not a whole lot happening I see. Hopefully the season is done and no one has anymore damage. I'd rather watch football anyway. LSU smoked WVA last night (and are now ranked #1) and the Saints pulled it out today, so it's a good weekend.
tropical storm philipe its get much stronger she will be a hurricane soon
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Hi Everyone,

Been off for a bit. I am assuming the storms are pretty much ending now or is there any model support of anything coming up? GOM,Caribean or Atlantic (besides the 2 that are there now)...



olny one name storm out there now Ophelia is dead in the water
Quoting Tazmanian:



olny one name storm out there now Ophelia is dead in the water

lol yep
Quoting Tazmanian:



olny one name storm out there now Ophelia is dead in the water


oh, ok. Really surprised there hasn't been more action in the GOM and Caribean...
233. JLPR2
Quoting luigi18:


she is firing back


It seems we'll have a rainy week.
wow...this blog is soooo slow.
well, I guess I will check in later but it seems this season is pretty much done. Seems to be anyways. Guess we will see.
.. A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CROSS AND CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTIES...

AT 428 PM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LANSING... OR NEAR EARLE... MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN EARLE ARKANSAS AT 427 PM. HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE... MARION... PARKIN... TURRELL... WEST MEMPHIS... DUVALL... SMITHDALE... THREE FORKS... HEAFER... LAMBETHVILLE... CLOAR... CRITTENDEN... LANSING AND BOOKER.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BRANDYWINE LAKE AND WAPANOCCA LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE... SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES... EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE... LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

Memphis might get a possible tornado.
Still a decent looking hurricane.
blog is quiet
ghostblog
lol
Relight My Fire...

Off topic but..
How come nearly all the underdog teams in the NFL are 3-0?
(not including other 3-0 teams that aren't underdogs)
Quoting Chucktown:


Doesn't matter, full latitude trough later this week will catch whatever form Ophelia takes by then - Eastern Seaboard closed for business...
Well, now that Ophelia is a tropical low, looks better than this morning as TS, and building lots of convection in her new COC,that is forming under the deep convection. Pretty nasty next couple of days for us in the islands,that's for sure, with Ophelia as non-name storm upon us.
Quoting JLPR2:


It seems we'll have a rainy week.

That sucks.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I wouldn't be worried by any formed Tropical System (T.S. or Hurricane) in the Atlantic. They will be pulled north well before making it to the U.S.

A wave or weak low entering the Caribbean is what we need. Or a home grown system forming off a stalled frontal boundry.

May be what YOU need... I'll take the cat 5 in the Central ATL, tyvm.... not hitting NOLA or anything else, for that matter....

Unfortunately this is the time of the year when a Caribbean originating storm with more serious potential is likely to form.

Quoting Thrawst:


Yeah rain was looong and steady today.
But you see that storm yesterday? dang... was insane!
We got major rain in the a.m..... massive lightning in the midday, followed by more rain all through the late afternoon and early evening.... lol.... not a good day to hit the golf course.... lol

Today was better.

Quoting Hurricyclone:

I doubt that it will regenerate its tropical characteristics.
Somebody at TAFB thinks it maybe possible N of PR.... don't know how likely that is, though.

Quoting JLPR2:


It seems we'll have a rainy week.
Lol... was thinking that the first look at Ophelia I got today.... plus there's another Twave after that likely to pass over u guys.... haven't u hit some kinda rainfall record yet?

Quoting BahaHurican:
May be what YOU need... I'll take the cat 5 in the Central ATL, tyvm.... not hitting NOLA or anything else, for that matter....

Unfortunately this is the time of the year when a Caribbean originating storm with more serious potential is likely to form.

We got major rain in the a.m..... massive lightning in the midday, followed by more rain all through the late afternoon and early evening.... lol.... not a good day to hit the golf course.... lol

Today was better.

Somebody at TAFB thinks it maybe possible N of PR.... don't know how likely that is, though.

Lol... was thinking that the first look at Ophelia I got today.... plus there's another Twave after that likely to pass over u guys.... haven't u hit some kinda rainfall record yet?



Hey are you getting rain again too?
Quoting TexasHurricane:


oh, ok. Really surprised there hasn't been more action in the GOM and Caribean...




the gulf is a bust bow
Quoting Tazmanian:




the gulf is a dust bow


thats a good way to put it
EDIT:
Don't you mean dust bow?
247. rkay1
That storm is irrelevant in every way possible.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Relight My Fire...


Off topic but..
How come nearly all the underdog teams in the NFL are 3-0?
(not including other 3-0 teams that aren't underdogs)

Another sign of 2012
249. rkay1
The Eastern Seaboard has virtually been closed for business since the beginning of the season.  I recall this blog chanting just before the season on how the coast would be getting hit all season long and how it was setting up to be so bad.  Just once it would be nice if this place had any value other than cool graphics and tracks of previous storm.
Quoting Chucktown:


Doesn't matter, full latitude trough later this week will catch whatever form Ophelia takes by then - Eastern Seaboard closed for business...

Quoting Hurricyclone:


thats a good way to put it
EDIT:
Don't you mean dust bow?



yes lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 60.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES
Satelite seems to show a more stronger circulation under the deep convection towards the east,around 18.5N ,58 W,. I wonder what the HH said about that. Or, " or if they ever went there?
Quoting Hurricyclone:


Hey are you getting rain again too?
So far no rain since about 3 p.m.



Looks like FL will get a soaking....
253. rkay1
I assume you mean from the Caribbean.  Its worth noting at this point we'd be lucky to see anything form in those waters.  Its been all but dead for the entire season and none of the models forecast nothing as well.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And this same pattern will end up taking storms to Florida.

Quoting BahaHurican:
So far no rain since about 3 p.m.



Looks like FL will get a soaking....

ok
Quoting Walshy:

That's the tornado I posted
257. rkay1
Making that claim is not stupid.  Yes, you are correct more times than not this is when FL has a better chance of receiving a storm.  This year? Not so much.  There has been NULL activity in the Caribbean (up till now) and absolutely no model support for anything in the immediate future.  Seasons are full of trends and patterns.  This season has been the trend of Tropical Storms and finding ways to miss land.  
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Florida's' biggest threat many times occurs after this date. To make that statement earlier this year was bold, to come out now on September 25th and claim you were right is stupid.

Quoting aspectre:
exOphelia is now a closed low on the 25Sept_pmGMT_ATCF, so...
...it's time for some Texcasting.
Starting 24Sept_6pmGMT and ending 25Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent (TropicaStorm then)exOphelia's path.
And 289.3degrees(WNW) is the initial heading on the straightline projection
from exOphelia's 2nd most recent ATCF position to:
its most recent ATCF position;
GrandTurk of the Turks&Caicos;
and Brownsville,Texas.

Copy&paste 25.97n77.19w-myas, 18.17n63.1w-axa, 17.7n57.0w-17.9n58.0w, 17.9n58.0w-18.2n59.0w, 18.2n59.0w-18.2n60.0w, 18.2n60.0w-18.4n60.6w, gdt, 18.2n60.0w-21.51n71.131w, 18.2n60.0w-bro into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 25Sept_12pmGMT


Even if she made it past florida she'd get ripped to shreds by low moisture and unfortunate amounts of shear.
Typhoon Nesat is up to 85 mph and strengthening. Still expected to make landfall as a Category 4 typhoon.



Quoting rkay1:
Making that claim is not stupid. Yes, you are correct more times than not this is when FL has a better chance of receiving a storm. This year? Not so much. There has been NULL activity in the Caribbean (up till now) and absolutely no model support for anything in the immediate future. Seasons are full of trends and patterns. This season has been the trend of Tropical Storms and finding ways to miss land.



If you look back at history, you will find that there is absolutely no positive correlation between an inactive Caribbean during August/September and its activity in October during generally active seasons. In fact, often the Caribbean will light up in a big way during October in seasons like this one where the central Atlantic is active in August and September.
Quoting Levi32:


If you look back at history, you will find that there is absolutely no positive correlation between an inactive Caribbean during August/September and its activity in October during generally active seasons. In fact, often the Caribbean will light up in a big way during October in seasons like this one where the central Atlantic is active in August and September.

Has the timeline for Caribbean development been pushed back to mid to late October yet? ;)
Whats with the latest seismic activity in the carribean area?

Philippe's 3-5 day forecast should be interesting. I am noticing that NHC is already expecting it to move further west than per their original forecasts, and I gotta tell you the trough interaction that's supposed to take it off northward around 45N looks a bit specious to me. I have a feeling this one will end up rather more west than initial forecasts put it.

lol.... I'm not saying it will hit anything.....

264. rkay1
Development is non-existent.  If something does pop off, I cant see a chain of storms.  It will probably be some weak/disorganized TS that lands in Mexico.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Has the timeline for Caribbean development been pushed back to mid to late October yet? ;)

Levi, what r u thinking about Philippe's long term track? Turn near 30N as currently forecast, or closer to 50N?
Cloud tops getting warmer in philippe.
Link
Quoting Hurricyclone:
Cloud tops getting warmer in philippe.
Link


As expected around this time of evening.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


As expected around this time of evening.

Oh...
My bad.
Expect those kinds of mistakes from a kid..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Has the timeline for Caribbean development been pushed back to mid to late October yet? ;)
when it does happen the models will only get a couple days notice.
Quoting Hurricyclone:
Whats with the latest seismic activity in the carribean area?




time for you too upgrade too window 7
Quoting Tazmanian:



time for you too upgrade too window 7

Cant.
parental controls.
and my parents are too lazy to fix them
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Oh...
My bad.
Expect those kinds of mistakes from a kid..


How old are you?

----

I want you guys' opinion on my Wikipedia article. Obviously I'm not done, and need to add references, but tell me what you think so far.

Link
Quoting TexasHurricane:
well, I guess I will check in later but it seems this season is pretty much done. Seems to be anyways. Guess we will see.


Nope, still got a good more 6 or so names left this season.

Very active season, nonetheless.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


How old are you?

----

I want you guys' opinion on my Wikipedia article. Obviously I'm not done, and need to add references, but tell me what you think so far.

Link

12.
Quoting Hurricyclone:

12.


Cool, same age I joined at.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Cool, same age I joined at.

BTW the wiki thing looks like you put a whole lot of effort into it.
no wonder fpl is charging more for kilo watt than last yr irritating commercials like thats on this blog at least turn the sound off
Thought I'd use this relative lull to post a few graphics showing some of the oddities of this strange hurricane season.

This first one shows that, even though many more TCs than usual have been tropical storms, we have had a lot of them. In fact, 2011 is just one storm below 2005 at this point, 3 storms ahead of the hyperactive years of 1995 and 2010, and a full 10 storms ahead of 2009:

Hurricanes 2011

This second shows that, despite how busy things have been, ACE has not yet even reached half of what was accumulated last year, and still has a ways to go before it's equal to even 1/3 of 2005's:

Hurricanes 2011

This shows ACE by day for the season:

Hurricanes 2011

...and this one shows ACE per storm:

Hurricanes 2011

...and this last shows how ACE has risen since last June:

Hurricanes 2011
Quoting Hurricyclone:
Whats with the latest seismic activity in the carribean area?

This occurs in the area of Puerto Rico on a regular basis.
Quoting Hurricyclone:

BTW the wiki thing looks like you put a whole lot of effort into it.


I did and am. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I did and am. :P

Looks nice too, forgot to say that,
and I would read it too.
8)
Interesting that the storm number is well within forecast range, but the ACE is pretty much all shot to [ahem]. Going to be very interesting to look at this season in the post analysis and figure out what pre-season signs we could've, should've picked up on.

287. BDAwx
I just had a thought over dinner - maybe there is a connection between the lack of big ACE producing storms throughout the northern hemisphere because of the much warmer than normal arctic. Aren't tropical cyclones mainly a mechanism for distributing heat potential from the tropics to the poles? So if the poles are already warm there shouldn't be as much need for tropical cyclones and they should become less intense and eventually less frequent.
Like I said; just a thought - no real scientific backings to it.
Is the MJO still favoring the carribean in a few weeks. Not sure if i said that right or not. Just remembering Levi/s Tidbit a week ago saying it was moving in that direction if i recall correctly.
Quoting CaribBoy:
lol I guest I'm in the ignore list of many

fyi you are not on mine.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

That Caribbean activity makes me nervous for some reason.
Because of the point that when that japan earthquake happened, even before it happened there was alot of seismic activity, for some reason I think that there's gonna be a major earthquake.
O_o
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Is the MJO still favoring the carribean in a few weeks. Not sure if i said that right or not. Just remembering Levi/s Tidbit a week ago saying it was moving in that direction if i recall correctly.
Yea i think is true
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ophelia wants to make a comeback!
Ironically I know is only in apperance but Ophelia looks more impressive in Satelite pictures than Philips, a least with convection...
guys Satelite pictures of Ophelia are fooling you it may look like its comeing back but its geting shear a part



oh its noow called ex Ophelia
Go fishy Phillipe GO!!!
On satellite to me it does not look like Philippe is following the NHCs track. Looks more westward or maybe the beam and coke is kicking in.
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
On satellite to me it does not look like Philippe is following the NHCs track. Looks more westward or maybe the beam and coke is kicking in.
You should drink Black and Coke.
Quoting BDADUDE:
You should drink Black and Coke.
Lol one more and i have to switch to Wild Turkey thats all that is left ;)
298. JLPR2
Hillary's eye made a nice comeback.

Quoting JLPR2:
Hillary's eye made a nice comeback.


T-numbers are lying just below Category 4 status, may see it go back up to 135 mph for a brief period.
TA13 at this rate for you to get 666 again you would have to stay up till 5am / cough lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

T-numbers are lying just below Category 4 status, may see it go back up to 135 mph for a brief period.
notice though not that much pink surronding the eye but the eye has become clearer andlarger than before im thinking 125 or 135
Quoting Neapolitan:
Thought I'd use this relative lull to post a few graphics showing some of the oddities of this strange hurricane season. 501px;">

...and this last shows how ACE has risen since last June:

Hurricanes 2011


Excellent ACE statistics...
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
TA13 at this rate for you to get 666 again you would have to stay up till 5am / cough lol.

lol, I won't be up nearly that long. However, things calm down at night, and knowing my luck, Id get post #666 tomorrow morning when I drop by before school and post :p
I can't stand ex ophelia near me and not dropping anything lol. Some distant lightnings are seen nonetheless....
Quoting CaribBoy:
I can't stand ex ophelia near me and not dropping anything lol. Some distant lightnings are seen nonetheless....
careful what you wish for dude.
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/25/11 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

lol, I won't be up nearly that long. However, things calm down at night, and knowing my luck, Id get post #666 tomorrow morning when I drop by before school and post :p
Haha I hear ya, well your input is always refreshing.
Quoting BDADUDE:
careful what you wish for dude.


:-)
Do any of the models still show any development in the carribeans down the road?
Some of the images on hillary are down or what?

EDIT: BACK UP FOR ME.
IDK WHAT HAPPENED...
Weird.
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Do any of the models still show any development in the carribeans down the road?
Not that I know of but if your drinking wild turkey then anything can happen.
Fast jet of shear Up there....


Quoting BDADUDE:
Not that I know of but if your drinking wild turkey then anything can happen.
ROFL
After careful consideration, I am releasing my ignored bloggers from Arkham Asylum. I am ready for a fresh start.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
After careful consideration, I am releasing my ignored bloggers from Arkham Asylum. I am ready for a fresh start.
Sounds like you went to the same meeting i did.
What century are we in?
well ophelia is looking great, like melting icecreme sundae on a table with three leg
321. JLPR2
Ex-Ophelia merits watching. It still has a LLC, it just lacks the necessary convection and therefore winds, to be considered a TC.

Station BARA9
NOS
Location: 17.591N 61.821W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 25 Sep 2011 23:12:00 UTC
Winds: NW (310) at 5.1 kt gusting to 7.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.86 in
Air Temperature: 81.5 F
Water Temperature: 85.5 F
So far OFCL is winning in forecasting Hilary, TVCN is runner up..error nm~ 0hr, 24hr, 48hr, etc..

OFCL 0 29.5 23.1 51.0 61.5 -
TVCN 0 32.7 38.3 57.4 55.6 65.8
MRFO 26.8 56.4 43.7 69.0 70.5 -
EGRR 12.3 46.6 68.5 101.0 158.8 -
GFDL 8.0 43.8 77.6 106.3 134.7 138.7
HWRF 4.2 70.3 111.2 110.7 100.9 91.4
LGEM 0 38.6 63.0 97.7 132.2 149.5
CMC 49.9 79.8 104.2 130.5 134.4 159.6
LBAR 0 51.6 77.4 104.1 174.3 305.3
AEMN 29.6 68.1 112.0 149.6 178.8 166.5
NAM 27.8 73.7 148.9 277.2 - -

Something could still develop. But not a threat to the states...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Something could still develop. But not a threat to the states...

Looks like PR then eventually Florida if it stays weak.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 60.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OPHELIA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252333
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILLIPE...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY
ON TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA.

THE REMNANT LOW OF OPHELIA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Looks like PR then eventually Florida if it stays weak.


I don’t think so. With the current steering pattern…whether ex-Ophelia is weak or strong….it cannot make it to the CONUS.
Now why the heck cant we get nice looking systems in the Atlantic this year? Its so frustrating it makes me want to the control the weather at times..I dont want any major hurricane landfalls in the U.S but we cant get a nice Category 3 hurricane to recurve out in the Atlantic?
ophelia turning into a remanat low
Ex-Ophilia.... Behind bars.

Quoting troy1993:
Now why the heck cant we get nice looking systems in the Atlantic this year? Its so frustrating it makes me want to the control the weather at times..I dont want any major hurricane landfalls in the U.S but we cant get a nice Category 3 hurricane to recurve out in the Atlantic?


Katia. Why does the basin matter anyway? I see no difference between a beautiful and harmless Atlantic storm versus a beautiful and harmless East Pacific storm.
Quoting troy1993:
Now why the heck cant we get nice looking systems in the Atlantic this year? Its so frustrating it makes me want to the control the weather at times..I dont want any major hurricane landfalls in the U.S but we cant get a nice Category 3 hurricane to recurve out in the Atlantic?


We just had a nice Category 4 hurricane not affect the USA 2-3 weeks ago.

Remember Katia? (;
I know a week ago Levi was hyping up a storm forming in the general area of the NW Caribbean this week. I haven't seen his tidbit in a while, is he still talking of one in the area or did things change?


KATIA
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I don’t think so. With the current steering pattern…whether ex-Ophelia is weak or strong….it cannot make it to the CONUS.


I think you are right. Very strong troughs moving down and early one too.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We just had a nice Category 4 hurricane not affect the USA 2-3 weeks ago.

Remember Katia? (;
we had no systems go under RI this year in the atlantic.. irene and katia gradually made it to cat 3 and 4's respectivelly but the low vertical instability caused a damper on our storms :(
What are the odds that Hilary could hit California?

I think its 50% now.
Quoting WoodyFL:


I think you are right. Very strong troughs moving down and early one too.


Not saying we can’t get hit from behind…Wilma style.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
we had no systems go under RI this year in the atlantic.. irene and katia gradually made it to cat 3 and 4's respectivelly but the low vertical instability caused a damper on our storms :(

Katia rapidly strengthened and so did Irene.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I know a week ago Levi was hyping up a storm forming in the general area of the NW Caribbean this week. I haven't seen his tidbit in a while, is he still talking of one in the area or did things change?

He wasn't hyping up a storm forming in the NW Caribbean, and no, the general idea has not changed.
Early morning visible shot of Typhoon Nesat in the West Pacific. Still expected to undergo go RI before landfall in Luzon.


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Not saying we can’t get hit from behind…Wilma style.


Oh, right. If something formed in the caribbean and went into the Gulf, I guess a strong trough could move it east.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Ex-Ophilia.... Behind bars.



Meteorological humor... I love it. ;)
Got a gut feeling that Nesat is beginning to undergo rapid intensification. The center has been rapidly winding up over the past few frames, something indicative that RI is about to occur, or occurring.

VISIBLE:



SHORTWAVE:



WATER VAPOR:



NONE:



AVN:



DVORAK:



JSL:



RGB:



FUNKTOP:



RAINBOW:

S'all yours... ;-)
TS Philippe still holding at 50 knots, but pressure is down to 997 mbar.

AL, 17, 2011092600, , BEST, 0, 138N, 321W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 20, 1013, 240, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
Do you two guys talk to each other a lot?
Hurricane Hilary holding at 125 mph/953 mbar.

EP, 09, 2011092600, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1109W, 110, 953, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1006, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D,
Quoting Neapolitan:
S'all yours... ;-)


lol.

Quoting WoodyFL:
Do you two guys talk to each other a lot?


Me and Neap?
Go ahead Neapolitan its your turn.
Quoting Speeky:
What are the odds that Hilary could hit California?

I think its 50% now.


A Pacific storm isn't pulling that off during a La Nina. Trust me.
353. DFWjc
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I know a week ago Levi was hyping up a storm forming in the general area of the NW Caribbean this week. I haven't seen his tidbit in a while, is he still talking of one in the area or did things change?


That was me as well, the way the cold air was pushing down from Canada and how the warmer waters of the Carribbean would be a hot bed for a possible tropical system that would go over Cuba and either go over very Southern Florida or the Bahamian Isles.
Ophelia lookin good
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I know a week ago Levi was hyping up a storm forming in the general area of the NW Caribbean this week. I haven't seen his tidbit in a while, is he still talking of one in the area or did things change?


My "plans" for the Caribbean have been pushed forward to early October because the MJO has been a lot slower in coming back to the Atlantic than models had indicated, but it should still come back eventually. Once it does, I think there's a good chance we will see some sort of development.
Quoting Levi32:


My "plans" for the Caribbean have been pushed forward to early October because the MJO has been a lot slower in coming back to the Atlantic than models had indicated, but it should still come back eventually. Once it does, I think there's a good chance we will see some sort of development.
levi what are the odds the US gets a major this season? the only area in the US that i see getting nailed is Western Florida. Also do models show weakining shear next week because the gulf is filled with 50 knots of destruction. thanks :)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
we had no systems go under RI this year in the atlantic.. irene and katia gradually made it to cat 3 and 4's respectivelly but the low vertical instability caused a damper on our storms :(

Rapid intensification by definition is an unusual event. The paper I saw defined it as being in the 95th percentile or above in rapidity of intensification. Having a year without it in the Atlantic is not all that improbable--though the year is not over yet!
Quoting wxgeek723:


A Pacific storm isn't pulling that off during a La Nina. Trust me.


Warm along the west coast & the models like it..deep digging front coming.



Quoting bappit:

Rapid intensification by definition is an unusual event. The paper I saw defined it as being in the 95th percentile or above in rapidity of intensification. Having a year without it in the Atlantic is not all that improbable--though the year is not over yet!
well irene went from a 1 to a 2 to a 3. thats not RI. katia went from a 1 a 2 a 3 and a 4. thats not RI. RI would be like a cat 1 to a 4 in like 6 hours. Igor 85mph. 6 hours later. 135mph thats RI. the vertical instability is very low this year. thats why we havent had intense systems
Quoting Skyepony:


Warm along the west coast & the models like it..deep digging front coming.





Well by California, you mean Baja California, then definitely.
It looks to me that Hilary might have regained Cat 4 intensity, if not it just under that intensity.
Quoting WoodyFL:
Do you two guys talk to each other a lot?

Seems like one speaks for the other. They plus each other's posts, methinks.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
well irene went from a 1 to a 2 to a 3. thats not RI. katia went from a 1 a 2 a 3 and a 4. thats not RI. RI would be like a cat 1 to a 4 in like 6 hours. Igor 85mph. 6 hours later. 135mph thats RI. the vertical instability is very low this year. thats why we havent had intense systems

I saw a specific definition. Wish I had the link still ... buried in one of Dr. M's blogs where someone claimed the NHC was wrong to predict RI when in fact it had demonstrably occurred.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Well by California, you mean Baja California, then definitely.


Yeah I don't know if I'd go 50% on the State of California. Not impossible. Headed that way. Colder temps won't be good for it..expected to weaken on the way. Maybe a struggling TS by the time she gets near land again, maybe stronger if she skirts closer to the west coast.
Global satellite overview.



Oh, Baja is in California? ;)

DFWjc- I think I know what you mean when you say cold air from Canada leading to tropical development. You mean convective development along old frontal boundries that evolve into a tropical system, right?
I remember one comment from that paper on rapid intensification that the criteria for the eastern Pacific were a little more stringent than for the Atlantic. It seems the east Pac is a little more hospitable environment for hurricanes than the Atlantic generally is. Oh, snap (as they say). I wish I had that link.
Quoting bappit:

Seems like one speaks for the other. They plus each other's posts, methinks.


That is funny.
Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah I don't know if I'd go 50% on the State of California. Not impossible. Headed that way. Colder temps won't be good for it..expected to weaken on the way. Maybe a struggling TS by the time she gets near land again, maybe stronger if she skirts closer to the west coast.


Well it's 2011 and stranger things have happened...hahaha
we are 9 months away from the 2012 season but would would you predictions be if we had el nino, la nina or neutral. Mine are
El nino 11 Tropical storms 5 hurricanes 2 major
La nina 15 tropical storms 8 hurricanes and 4 major
Neutral 17 tropical storms 9 hurricanes and 5 major
from Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk%3ARapid_deepeni ng

The NHC defined rapid intensification in their 2007 verification report
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verific ation_2007.pdf

as "a 30 kt increase in maximum winds in a 24 h period, and corresponds to the 5th percentile of all intensity changes in the Atlantic basin," pointing to Kaplan and DeMaria (2003)

Hello folks. I've always watched the comments and I finally made an account. I'll be mostly lurking and i'll comment from time to time.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
from Wikipedia:

The NHC defined rapid intensification in their 2007 verification report
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verific ation_2007.pdf

as "a 30 kt increase in maximum winds in a 24 h period, and corresponds to the 5th percentile of all intensity changes in the Atlantic basin," pointing to Kaplan and DeMaria (2003)



I think there's a paper from 1999 that says RI is 30kt or more wind increase in 24hrs but it was the top 12%. Odd not having so much RI this year after the last decade.

Very rapid intensification is 40kt or more increase in 24hrs.

NESAT isn't taking advantage yet..
Quoting ClaySFL:
Hello folks. I've always watched the comments and I finally made an account. I'll be mostly lurking and i'll comment from time to time.


Welcome Clay.
Bastrop Fire Update with Good News: Three weeks after a devastating fire in Bastrop residents are beginning to heal and recover. Recovery efforts are in full swing and now residents and responders will soon have the power they need.

Officials with Bluebonnet Energy announced Sunday, crews will have power restored to all areas affected by the Labor Day fires by the end of the day, two weeks earlier than estimated.


They are still working on hot spots and last i heard fire was 95 percent contained but other than that time to start rebuilding Bastrop. The Good News is that the Businesses in Town were not affected. If you drive downtown Bastrop which is very nice you would not know a fire had happened.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Welcome Clay.


Thank you. Glad to be on here :)
Ophelia, Philippe and two other low areas (shown in Wve height)

Never noticed that there was an island so far off of the west coast of Mexico (on the north side of Hillary). Is it inhabited or is that where they keep the dinosaurs?
Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah I don't know if I'd go 50% on the State of California. Not impossible. Headed that way. Colder temps won't be good for it..expected to weaken on the way. Maybe a struggling TS by the time she gets near land again, maybe stronger if she skirts closer to the west coast.

The Pacific water is so cold campared to the ATL/CRB/GOM. but with a large enough storm it would provide enough residual effect that the media would have a frenzy..
How many months has Ophelia been out there? It seems like forever.
Quoting ClaySFL:
Hello folks. I've always watched the comments and I finally made an account. I'll be mostly lurking and i'll comment from time to time.

Welcome aboard...
Quoting bappit:
They plus each other's posts, methinks.

I plus every post. Even yours. It's how I keep my WU karma at a healthy level. ;-)
Quoting WoodyFL:


That is funny.

Yeah, a real knee-slapper, that. :-\
Quoting KingofNewOrleans:
Never noticed that there was an island so far off of the west coast of Mexico (on the north side of Hillary). Is it inhabited or is that where they keep the dinosaurs?


Isla Socorro - Being alone there with Hillary around you will surelly yell SOCORRO....

Quoting Chicklit:
What century are we in?


The one before the next one.
Quoting WoodyFL:
How many months has Ophelia been out there? It seems like forever.


I know. Once they get in that area...it seems like forever for them to get moving.
Quoting WoodyFL:
How many months has Ophelia been out there? It seems like forever.


Months? lol.

It was classified only four days ago, but it DOES seem like forever.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
we are 9 months away from the 2012 season but would would you predictions be if we had el nino, la nina or neutral. Mine are
El nino 11 Tropical storms 5 hurricanes 2 major
La nina 15 tropical storms 8 hurricanes and 4 major
Neutral 17 tropical storms 9 hurricanes and 5 major


Everybody knows next hurricane season is going to be the most destructive and deadly hurricane season ever recorded.

It will be 2012 just so you know. ;)
Quoting ClaySFL:
Hello folks. I've always watched the comments and I finally made an account. I'll be mostly lurking and i'll comment from time to time.


Hello ClaySFL
For a little break...my new baby McKenzie, is losing her baby teeth. The ones I find, I am using them for letter openers...

img src="Photobucket">
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For a little break...my new baby McKenzie, is losing her baby teeth. The ones I find, I am using them for letter openers...

img src="Photobucket">


Pets on the furniture???
Quoting Bielle:


Pets on the furniture???


Of course.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Of course.


Each to his own.
393. DFWjc
366. Chapelhill 1:15 AM GMT on September 26, 2011 0 Hide this comment.
Oh, Baja is in California? ;)

DFWjc- I think I know what you mean when you say cold air from Canada leading to tropical development. You mean convective development along old frontal boundries that evolve into a tropical system, right?


That's one way, i was also thinking that without the bloody High over Texas something could actually come through into the Gulf and maybe curve with one of those fronts... just an idea... imho
2011SEP26 013000 6.2 945.0/ 2.2 /119.8 6.1 6.1 6.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF 6.34 -63.48 EYE 14 IR 16.90 111.01 COMBO

Supports an intensity of Category 4. SAB/TAFB were at 5.5 at 0000 UTC (8 p.m. EDT), or just below Category 4 hurricane status. I think there is a good chance it is upgraded to a C4 at 11PM.
Yes 2012...all bets are off with that year coming. First we have to deal with that phantom Elenin on Tuesday and then 11-11-11 and finally 12-21-12. More than likely, nothing will come of any of those dates.

One question, are we done with 2011 yet? The Caribbean could still be an issue in October.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Everybody knows next hurricane season is going to be the most destructive and deadly hurricane season ever recorded.

It will be 2012 just so you know. ;)
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bastrop Fire Update with Good News: Three weeks after a devastating fire in Bastrop residents are beginning to heal and recover. Recovery efforts are in full swing and now residents and responders will soon have the power they need.
If you drive downtown Bastrop which is very nice you would not know a fire had happened.

I wonder how this will affect next year's bluebonnet season. Some vegetation does better after a fire, but I don't know about bluebonnets (as in my avatar!).
i think DOOM will come 12-12-12
Quoting kap333:
Yes 2012...all bets are off with that year coming. First we have to deal with that phantom Elenin on Tuesday and then 11-11-11 and finally 12-21-12. More than likely, nothing will come of any of those dates.

One question, are we done with 2011 yet? The Caribbean could still be an issue in October.



We're no where done with the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, there is still a good probability of 6-9 named storms, mainly in the Caribbean. This will be a problem during October and November.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think DOOM will come 12-12-12


Then I should cancel buying Christmas presents?
Good night all.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Then I should cancel buying Christmas presents?




ask me that next year
Quoting Bielle:


Pets on the furniture???
No; furniture under pets. Hard to train furniture.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bastrop Fire Update with Good News: Three weeks after a devastating fire in Bastrop residents are beginning to heal and recover. Recovery efforts are in full swing and now residents and responders will soon have the power they need.

Officials with Bluebonnet Energy announced Sunday, crews will have power restored to all areas affected by the Labor Day fires by the end of the day, two weeks earlier than estimated.


They are still working on hot spots and last i heard fire was 95 percent contained but other than that time to start rebuilding Bastrop. The Good News is that the Businesses in Town were not affected. If you drive downtown Bastrop which is very nice you would not know a fire had happened.


Wish you guys could have gotten some decent rain last week.


interesting cloud wake caused by downwind flow from that island, isla socorro, mexico
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Wish you guys could have gotten some decent rain last week.
It sprinkled in Bastrop a few days ago but it did not get roads wet, that is about heaviest rain I saw driving around. 105 here today and extremely windy, humidity next to nothing.
Quoting WDEmobmet:


interesting cloud wake caused by downwind flow from that island, isla socorro, mexico


Nice picture!
yea i thought so too, illustrates nicely the effects topography can have
hilary and philipe the same as the 5pm
Quoting Tazmanian:




ask me that next year
Tazmaniac! You old pelican! What do you see happening the first week of October?
Photos suggest comet Elenin is falling apart
Amateur astronomer says that close pass to the sun might have taken a toll


Quoting kipperedherring:
Tazmaniac! You old pelican! What do you see happening the first week of October?




am not sure it seemm like wind shear is starting too take overe so am not sure if will see any oct storms or we see a few but we all so start looking closer too home
413. JLPR2
Makes me wonder what Ophelia is planning.

Quoting Tazmanian:




am not sure it seemm like wind shear is starting too take overe so am not sure if will see any oct storms or we see a few but we all so start looking closer too home
Thanks! You made a great call concerning The remnants of Irene hitting the UK. You were right on the money! Good looking out!
Quoting Tazmanian:




am not sure it seemm like wind shear is starting too take overe so am not sure if will see any oct storms or we see a few but we all so start looking closer too home
Tazmaniac, do you think we have to worry about this comet that Skyepony is talking about?
Quoting JLPR2:
Makes me wonder what Ophelia is planning.



Slow moving Ophelia is going to bring lots of showers here.... Maybe its Coc 50-100 N of PR (What is left of her, as long as shear keeps her from re- developing)



417. ch2os
......testing......
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
No; furniture under pets. Hard to train furniture.


Good one! Made me laugh. i buy mine ready trained.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
No; furniture under pets. Hard to train furniture.


Good one! Made me laugh. I buy mine ready trained.
Of course, Ophelia finally looks tropical after she's declared post-tropical. I guess she has quite the shot at regenerating sometime tomorrow.
Philippe can probably still make hurricane status, albeit briefly.

And what's with that very interesting looking tropical system in the northeast Atlantic around 35N? If this season wants to be any more similar to its 6-year-ago counterpart, then that looks like it could be this year's Vince. Although it's very difficult to tell, but it does look like a broken-off trough that's getting somewhat tropical characteristics.
The Blog appears to be stuck.
GANGTOK: Glaciers in north Sikkim, disturbed by the 6.8 magnitude earthquake, have started melting faster, leading to fears of flash floods in the region.

Geologists say the increasing flow of water could threaten the flora and fauna of the Kanchenjunga National Park, the highest national park in India. In the past couple of days, black water has been flowing out of the mountains, and some traditional springs have gone missing. Geologists feel these are warnings of flash floods.

"Nothing will be stable at the moment," said Sushil Kumar, a geophysicist with the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology. Experts say another quake in the region could prove even more devastating and could even change the course of the Teesta. The state has formed an expert panel to prepare a report on the impact of the quake.
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MM
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(ADT)  
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09
26
1:18 am
  
W
9.9
12.0
-
-
-
-
29.85
-
82.2
84.0
-
-
-
-


09
26
1:12 am
  
W
11.1
13.0
-
-
-
-
29.86
-
82.4
84.0
-
-
-
-


09
26
1:06 am
  
W
11.1
14.0
-
-
-
-
29.86
-
82.2
84.0
-
-
-
-


09
26
1:00 am
  
W
11.1
13.0
-
-
-
-
29.86
-0.04
82.2
84.0
-
-
-
-


09
26
12:54 am
  
W
12.0
14.0
-
-
-
-
29.87
-
82.2
84.0
-
-
-
-


09
26
12:48 am
  
W
13.0
14.0
-
-
-
-
29.87
-
82.4
84.2
-
-
-
-


09
26
12:42 am
  
W
12.0
14.0
-
-
-
-
29.87
-
82.4
84.2
-
-
-
-


09
26
12:36 am
  
WSW
11.1
14.0
-
-
-
-
29.87
-
82.4
84.4
-
-
-
-


09
26
12:30 am
  
WSW
11.1
13.0
-
-
-
-
29.88
-
82.4
84.4
-
-
-
-


09
26
12:24 am
  
W
12.0
13.0
-
-
-
-
29.88
-
82.4
84.6
-
-
-
-


09
26
12:18 am
  
W
9.9
12.0
-
-
-
-
29.88
-
82.0
84.6
-
-
-
-


09
26
12:12 am
  
W
11.1
12.0
-
-
-
-
29.88
-
82.2
84.7
-
-
-
-


09
26
12:06 am
  
W
9.9
12.0
-
-
-
-
29.88
-
82.2
84.7
-
-
-
-


09
26
12:00 am
  
WSW
9.9
12.0
-
-
-
-
29.88
-0.01
82.4
84.7
-
-
-
-


09
25
11:54 pm
  
WSW
9.9
11.1
-
-
-
-
29.88
-
82.2
84.7
-
-
-
-


09
25
11:48 pm
  
WSW
9.9
11.1
-
-
-
-
29.88
-
82.2
84.7
-
-
-
-


09
25
11:42 pm
  
WSW
8.9
11.1
-
-
-
-
29.88
-
82.4
84.7
-
-
-
-


09
25
11:36 pm
  
WSW
8.9
11.1
-
-
-
-
29.88
-
82.2
84.7
-
-
-
-


09
25
11:30 pm
  
WSW
8.9
11.1
-
-
-
-
29.88
-
82.2
84.7
-
-
-
-
2 hours without a post ...
test...
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
test...

Not working, Back after the break.
She always has this look.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We're no where done with the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, there is still a good probability of 6-9 named storms, mainly in the Caribbean. This will be a problem during October and November.


6 to 9 named storms, mainly in the Caribbean, going into November? What scientific data led you that conclusion?
Caribe, what was that long string of undecipherable data supposed to mean?
Quoting Tazmanian:




am not sure it seemm like wind shear is starting too take overe so am not sure if will see any oct storms or we see a few but we all so start looking closer too home
Quoting Tazmanian:




am not sure it seemm like wind shear is starting too take overe so am not sure if will see any oct storms or we see a few but we all so start looking closer too home

For a person so many look towards for tropical info why cant Taz spell for anything. I mean cmon its annoying...
All these weak struggling pathetic pulsating on and off storms in the Atlantic are getting quite zzzzzzz
hey everyone,

just popping in for a minute,

hope all is well,

since the weather is fairly calm right now, feel free to like my storm chase team page on Facebook. The team name is TORC (Tornado Observation and Research Crew) Torc is of Latin origin, and it means "to twist." perfect. anyway, I figured now would be an ok time to post it,

link is on the newest post in my blog,

feel free to comment and leave me feedback, criticism, or whatever floats your boat ;)

thanks!

Matt

blog

Quoting WDEmobmet:


interesting cloud wake caused by downwind flow from that island, isla socorro, mexico



its interesting lol



ophelia its down i have a felling that its not over for ophelia and its going to regenarate into a tropical storm again
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Of course, Ophelia finally looks tropical after she's declared post-tropical. I guess she has quite the shot at regenerating sometime tomorrow.
Philippe can probably still make hurricane status, albeit briefly.

And what's with that very interesting looking tropical system in the northeast Atlantic around 35N? If this season wants to be any more similar to its 6-year-ago counterpart, then that looks like it could be this year's Vince. Although it's very difficult to tell, but it does look like a broken-off trough that's getting somewhat tropical characteristics.



philipe its not going to be a hurricane but it will be a strong tropical storm that could hit azores( portugal) or even iberic peninsula but in a post tropical level.

this northeastern low its interesting and its get stronger but i don`t see this low becoming a tropical depression.
Morning all.



Looks like Ophelia's ghosting past PR....

Wonder if the ULL that sheared Ophelia to death will bring us rain over the next couple of days....
typhon nesat its not so intense than the models predicted and it will be a cat 2.
td haitiang its very weak storm but it reached the tropical storm force on the weekend.
Hillary its a major hurricane and its going north but the weakning of the storm its slowly, and it could be the hurricane of the eastern pacific if it baja.
ophelia is dead but it will regenerate into a good tropical storm, and it could it bermuda.
philipe its a tropical storm that its powerfull and will mantain its power and going to azores or iberic peninsula.
caribean it could see a tropical disturbance in the next days
and the low in 35n it has power to become a tropical depresion
Morning, Baha, S2001S and anyone else up this early. It was beautiful here last night once the sun went down. But another day in the mid 90s. I'm ready for Fall weather!
Anybody home? Looks like everyone's here POOF.
Quoting prcane4you:
Anybody home? Looks like everyone's here POOF.
I am here but doesn't look like anyone else is. Good morning. Are you getting any rain yet from Ophelia ?
not to scare anyone bu the 6z GFS has a hurricane 980mb in the W carribean in 2 weeks.... it moves nne and then makes a turn nnw towards western cuba...


mmm.. close to the islands. However that's a fantastic morning here in the N Leewards. No winds, clear sky, some beautiful cirrus.
Lol gfs 2 weeks out
Quoting WDEmobmet:


interesting cloud wake caused by downwind flow from that island, isla socorro, mexico


Very Cool pic! Thanks for posting!
446. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:


mmm.. close to the islands. However that's a fantastic morning here in the N Leewards. No winds, clear sky, some beautiful cirrus.


Ophelia's MLC is digging nicely to the surface. We might see her back sooner than expected, unless wind-shear increases. Right now it is 5-10knots.

looks like the o storm is trying to gets her act together watching the western carib. my character expects about 3 more cyclones this season 2 in the w. carib
Quoting tornadodude:
hey everyone,

just popping in for a minute,

hope all is well,

since the weather is fairly calm right now, feel free to like my storm chase team page on Facebook. The team name is TORC (Tornado Observation and Research Crew) Torc is of Latin origin, and it means "to twist." perfect. anyway, I figured now would be an ok time to post it,

link is on the newest post in my blog,

feel free to comment and leave me feedback, criticism, or whatever floats your boat ;)

thanks!

Matt

blog




You rock Mat! Good luck with your endeavor.
449. JLPR2
Also, the biggest problem could be rainfall. Steering currents are weak in the area.

The question was whether to drive over from New Smyrna Beach to Ocoee to pick up materials or stay here and make copies myself of them instead.

I think the weather report is convincing me to stay here. Driving in torrential rain means risking dumb people getting into accidents because they won't slow down according to conditions.

Funny how weather will tell us what to do when we're not sure.

435 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE TREASURE COAST. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AS BOUNDARIES AND STORM OUTFLOWS INTERACT WITH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION...THOUGH STORMS NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARD. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. ALSO...NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD OR LANDSPOUT.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTION WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL AND APPROACHING NEW MOON WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE THREAT WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SWELL BUILDS. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND INLAND LAKES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS.
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WILL ALLOW STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER LAND TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A CONTINUING THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS ALONG DEVELOPING CLOUD LINES OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LARGER INLAND LAKES AS A RESULT OF BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. BOATERS SHOULD STEER CLEAR OF WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. IF A SPOUT APPROACHES YOU ON LAND...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF VENTURING BEYOND 20 NM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. PLEASE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR GREATER IN ONE HOUR...OR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 INCHES OR GREATER.

$$

MOSES


Quoting PensacolaDoug:



You rock Mat! Good luck with your endeavor.


Thanks Doug! Back at ya man!
Good Morning All.

Tropical Storm Philippe is NOT only 60 mph...More like 70 mph. It has a well-formed CDO, with spiral bands, notably in the NW and SW quadrants, which have become better defined since the last advisory. Not sure why they took it becoming a hurricane out of the forecast, considering its likely already over their peak intensity forecast (65 mph).

Quoting CaribBoy:


mmm.. close to the islands. However that's a fantastic morning here in the N Leewards. No winds, clear sky, some beautiful cirrus.


Morning all and Ophelia finally looks like a well formed TS. Go figure!
Here is some good news...Apparently, Nesat isn't strengthening as much as forecast. So now, the expected landfall will be as a Category 2 versus a Category 4...much better.



Good Morning
Good Morning all
Philipe may look better, but still not projected to impact the U.S. whatsoever. Ophelia is also going out to sea.
Quoting Klolly23:

For a person so many look towards for tropical info why cant Taz spell for anything. I mean cmon its annoying...


Taz has been on here for many years providing great information. Picking on his spelling won't earn you any points with long term bloggers.
We'll be anticipating any ensuing systems that may want to develop. The focus shifts to the Caribbean, as the GOM is increasing becoming more hostile as time goes on. That's the great news for the U.S.
Quoting TropicTraveler:


Taz has been on here for many years providing great information. Picking on his spelling won't earn you any points with long term bloggers.




plzs DONT : Quote Klolly23: i have him on Ignore


this is one bloger i dont want too see Quote at all
Quoting Klolly23:

For a person so many look towards for tropical info why cant Taz spell for anything. I mean cmon its annoying...




POOF
Quoting stormpetrol:


Morning all and Ophelia finally looks like a well formed TS. Go figure!

And going WEST petrol!!!
Quoting Klolly23:

For a person so many look towards for tropical info why cant Taz spell for anything. I mean cmon its annoying...

Yeah, you learn to live with it though. There's a couple other bloggers who intentionally claim they write that way, although most understand that's probably an excuse.
Quoting Tazmanian:




POOF

Good idea that ignore key. It irritated me to see him pick on you so I forgot my rule about not acknowledging provacative or rude bloggers.
philipe its getting stronger
5 inches of rain yesterday and over 2 inches so far this morning in Naples. Street flooding all over downtown last night. Raining HARD now too. Deluge.
Quoting strong2011storm:
philipe its getting stronger


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Does anybody know what's up with the wave coming off Venezuela/Columbia? NOAA doesn't depict it on the met chart.


A 1011 MB LOW...REMNANT LOW OF OPHELIA...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NE OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER ALONG 21N57W 17N60W TO 17N65W DEPICTING SOME OF THE LINES OF CONVERGENCE INTO THE LOW CENTER.
CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF THE CENTER FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 57W-60W... WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 56W-62W.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. EVEN THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE ISLANDS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
okay, off to read State of Fear by Michael Crichton.
Didn't know it was about global warming until I started reading it. Love coincidences like that.
Night all. Please don't take anything too seriously.
Everything is liable to change.