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Ophelia, and 3 new threats

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on September 16, 2005

Yesterday, I was trying to imagine a day when I wouldn't talk about Ophelia moving slowly. Today is not the day :-( since Ophelia was still stalled out near Cape Hatteras this morning. However, the past few hours the Norfolk long range radar loop has shown a dramatic increase in Ophelia's forward speed and turn to the north-northeast. There is hope, then--tomorrow I will not have to talk about Ophelia moving slowly! I expect that the trough giving me a rainy day here in Michigan has now nabbed Ophelia and will swing her up the East Coast at a respectable speed today and tomorrow. Ophelia will still generate some trouble on her trek north; expect a 1 - 3 foot storm surge for southeast Massachusetts and Nova Scotia, 1 - 3 inches of rain, and sustained winds up to 40 mph as Ophelia brushes by.

While Ophelia did dump it share of heavy rain--around 5 - 7 inches near Wilmington, and over 10 inches around Cape Fear, south of Wilmington--the rain was mostly confined to the coast, and did not cause widespread flooding problems. Ophelia's winds also did relatively light damage--sustained hurricane force winds (74 mph) were only observed at one location, on Cape Lookout near the Outer Banks. The highest wind gusts measured were 92 mph on Cape Lookout and 83 mph at Cape Hatteras. The storm surge was what caused the main havoc with Ophelia--surges heights of up to 10 - 12 feet were observed along the Neuse River north of Wilmington. Preliminary damage estimates put Ophelia's damage to North Carolina over $10 million, but less than $100 million.

Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Morehead City radar for Ophelia's passage.

Wave nearing the Windward Islands
A well-organized tropical wave 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands has the potential to develop into a tropical depression in the next few days. The wave's surface circulation is better defined today, and is visible on both satellite imagery and QuikSCAT satellite measurements. Deep convection is limited, but has increased since yesterday. The wave, now located near 10N 50W, has moved away from the equator some, and has a better chance for development as it continues to gain latitude while moving west-northwest at 15 mph. Wind shear has decreased to about 10 knots, and the upper-level winds appear favorable--a small upper-level anticyclone is over the wave, and should provide good outflow if more deep convection starts to fire up.

The early track models are split, withe GFDL disippating the system immediately and the BAMM taking it into the Caribbean. The BAMM solution is radically different from the one six hours ago, which showed the large mid-Atlantic trough turning the system northwestward and missing the Leeward Islands. I expect the new BAMM solution is correct; the system is too shallow and too far south to get caught up by the mid-Atlantic trough, and will cross into the Eastern Carribean Monday. I suspect that the system will organize too slowly to pose a hurricane threat to the Leeward or Windward Islands. Hurricane Emily took a very similar path to this disturbance and developed into a hurricane right when it crossed the Windward Islands into the Caribbean, but was already a tropical storm when it reached 50W longitude, where our disturbance is today.

Figure 1. Early track model runs for the disturbance approaching the Windward Islands.

Blob northeast of Puerto Rico
A concentrated area of thunderstorms northeast of Puerto Rico has developed in the base of a large trough of low pressure. This disturbance will separate from the trough and move westward towards the Bahama Islands the next few days. Strong upper level winds out of the west are creating about 15 knots of shear over the disturbance, down from 20 knots yesterday. The shear should continue to drop the next few days, and may be low enough by Sunday to allow a tropical depression to form. The system should be in the Bahama Islands by then, and could threaten South Florida and Cuba as it continues to track west. Several computer models indicate that the disturbance is more likely to develop once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, and pose the greatest threat to Mexico or Texas. There are no early computer model track points for this disturbance yet, I will post them when they become available.

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the band of strong thuderstorms between Africa and South America, has historically been the source of many of the severe hurricanes that affect us in September. These "Cape Verde" type storms, so named because they originate from disturbances in the ITCZ near the Cape Verde Islands, have yet to make an appearance during this peak time of hurricane season. The ITCZ has become very active the past few days, and is forecast to continue to remain active the next two weeks. I expect at least one major Cape Verdes type hurricane to form by the end of September.

One candidate might be an area of distubed weather near 9N 36W. The QuikSCAT satellite shows a surface circulation here, and we'll have to watch this disturbance as it tracks westward the next few days.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

hi folks, i'm at work, but i refresh and check in to read about every 15 to 30 minutes during the day. there is a lot of "stuff" cooking our in the atlantic. have to be diligent. always get good info and links on this site.

I agree althought I live far from the coast (almost 400 miles) and in the far north (very unlikely to be affected by a hurricane other than heavy rains). I keep a eye out because I got friends in areas that could be effected (I am still waiting to find out if one of my friends from Katrina is still alive or not). Plus I am curious about these storms
1. no
2. no
3. yes

I wonder just how far west the low level circulation will get as it is so far south... what is going to catch it and hook it north... this sometimes is the kind of system that kicks butt in Cent Amer.
So far they are talking a rain event for So FL SUN-TUES for the blob in the PR vicinity
This visible image can show you what will append with this "wave".
I would like to know if people at Haiti should continue to monitoring this system.
Yes, Cgables the news is stating very wet start to next week. However they were saying that about the blob that turned into Katrina as well and look at the mess she started down here. So we shall see what this blob brings to us. Im praying that it never forms and fizzles out.
Not to wish anything on us, but I could use a little rain at my house. Hopefully it will just stay a blob, bring us a shower two, and go away.
Do you have any link of computer model about the sytem NE of Puerto Rico ? Please may be this one will affect Haiti also.
all the blobs out there are very interesting! I like it a lot! I see a nice spin on the west side of our PR disturbance, and I think we may get two td's out of that blob east of the Windward islands, unless it absorbs itself, but its spreading out and it is possible...
Oh great, just when I thought we might actually get a Pirates Week this year (been cancelled for the past two because of Ivan last year, and bad weather the year prior to that).

It has been way too quiet (weather wise) in and around Cayman since August......

I saw an amazing thing last night, and have only ever seen one in the daytime many years ago. A halo was around the moon.......hopefully it isn't a sign of things to come (i.e. the old wives tale of bad weather).

I have a trip planned to Puerto Rico middle of next week and have been lurking in an effort to stay on top of what's brewing. Information here is so helpful-- Am getting concern about travel plans. Thoughts on how soon I'll know if it's a bust??
Kiki-they claim that conditions are unfavorable for development...right now that sucker isn't worse than any afternoon thunderstorm in the south...
I found a site where they post the Invest model graphics, unfortunately you have to pay for a subscription:


Anyone here subscribed?
tropics are cool, part of our wonderful earth...ALthough I really don't want a hurricane, the rush they give when they are heading my way is more exciting than the endorphine rush you get after a good workout (and that workout can be anything u want it to be....lol)
lurking & working (always) refresh a few times any hour to catch tropics thoughts. usually don't post here, too many voices. Hope the PR blob stays just a thunder showers.
Looks like Ophelia will be a problem for Cape Cod.. She is showing signs of maintaining strength if not trying to get stronger.

The wave E of PR, should be near FL in 4 or 5 days.. IMHO
Looks like the models are pushing the invest storm east of the leewards up towards PR and DR, I hope this one doesnt come towards FL or anywhere in the usa either.
Look at the computer models on this website for the wave
href="http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=95" target="_blank">Link
Sorry was trying to make a link but the website is skeetobiteweather.com go to home page and look at Investigational area AL952005 for the latest models
Dr. Masters (or anyone knowledgable)

What are the chances of this hitting Louisiana?
Is the same High-Pressure ridge that is supposedly going to keep the PR blob away from the LA coast going to do the same for this one?
Last night, Bob Breck returned to the N.O. airwaves and said neither of these two waves should be a threat to any part of Louisiana, can anyone verify this?
oh, and be the way, for "this" I meant the Leeward Islands Wave
yes and the models have shifted pointing towards Puerto Rico and/or Domicican Republic.
It does look like NO may be near a land falling system late next week into the weekend.

Does it make sense to rebuild? I hope they can rebuild the levees before the next storm.
ok question about Ophelia...it looks to me like it's accelerating almost due north. where i am, the clouds are moving WNW, meaning the storm center is actually just barely west of due south of me...looks like it jogged NNE and is now headed pretty much due north. also, the convection is now on the north side, not the northeast. any thoughts?
Look at this loop. You can see the NE of PR wave is very well orgnize. Picture
That is interesting that the models are shifting toward the DR. If it does cross Hispaniola then the chance of a Florida landfall will be greatly increased.

I'm sure some of you are aware of this site,Tropical Update, but I haven't seen it mentioned yet.

The "Forecast Tools," on the left menu bar, is an awesome consolidation of some valuable links.
Or try that link
orion, I have the luxary of having a boss that goes golfing, more than he works. So I am alone in the office most of the time. Why is your job ending?
for the last four years, i have lived in central florida about 35 miles NW of Orlando. before that, lived in Daphne, Alabama (east of Mobile). I have been through 11 hurricanes over the years and have been excited and horrified through them all. i have a lot of crews that work for our company that live and work all over the state of florida. i take a huge personal interest in their safety, which is one big reason i pay such close attention to the tropics.

My boss sits about 10 feet away from me, his boss sits right across from me. Both don't care what I do as long as the work gets done.

As far the reason my job is ending. The company I work for outsourced our entire department (not to a offshore company just a local one that supposely can get the job done cheaper).

I have until Halloween so am not overly worried about finding another job (already had a couple of interviews this week and got 2 lined up for next week already).

Lastly to answer the un-asked question I work in IT
willjax, Thanks for that link. I hadn't seen that site.
Orion, I kind of do the same thing (IT)I keep our network up and running. I work for a meat broker, we buy and sell meat all over the world. 42,000 lbs, to 55,000 lbs. at a time. Its very interesting. I have also learned what to buy at the grocery store and what not to! I wish you luck on your new ventures in work.
I live about five minutes from the beach in So. Florida, so I am on here quite a bit this time of year.

Alot better than most bosses if you take a exterme interest in the personal well being of your employee's
jcpoulard...you are right ..it does look like it is getting well organized..interested in seeing how concerned the local Central FL. weather crew is interested in this particular wave..
Willjax..thanks ..good site..have not seen it before.
What NOT to buy???? C'mon Palmbeacher..... GIVE!
Willjax, like irecthh said, Thanks for the link.

That is good, hardware is fairly hard to have a outsourced company doing it especially overseas. Sadly I do Software (vb/asp/xml/sql) which is easy. Thanks for the good luck call. I been to Fl a few times (I grew up north of Ft. Bragg, NC).
orion, just started posting after lurking for several months. Posting from work as I'm real interested in the tropics this time of year being in Florida.
Subtropic, If i let out all the secrets I would loose my job!!! LOL. The main thing is when not to buy, (MAD COW). Most of our meat that you get in stores comes from Australia, and it is really safe. It goes through a huge amount of testing. Always spend a little more for the Chuck instead of the ground round. You don't really want to know what is in there!
Whew! Thanks Palmbeacher. I wish you could have seen the look on my face when I read your post back there. I feel better now ;-)
When I get a bad slaughter report for bad meat, I will give you the heads up and then you eat chicken for awhile.
Sorry for the scare!!!

Welcome to the light, I come out from time to time then go back in lurk mode (actually more like forget to tune in and post). Hopefully the good Dr will set up a blog for blizzards and winter weather for us up north to post and rant about how blizzards affect our lives (LOL).

Yes for the record I am already fearing a cold, hard winter and winter heating oil up 30% from last year its not going to be pretty
Bad slaughter? I might go vegan after this.
anyone know if there is a current "model" out on the blob near puerto rico?
Sorry! I'll give you the heads up when I get a bad report for bad meat, and you can eat chicken.
(If this shows up twice i will remove one. my last post didn't show up.)
My mistake, It didn't show up on mine until now.
good morning everyone
Flcanefan, Where are you in FL?
The wave NE of puerto Rico move slowly Westward. This loop can show some developpement and more aorganisation withn the tunderstorn. Loop
Good morning Lefty
Good afternoon for me.
Morning lefty.

My guess would be near Tampa (aleast I seem to remenber that is where they are from), since Flcanefan translates into Florida Hurricanes Fan.
This picture of wind at the location of the wave NE Puerto Rico, show very low wind less tahn 40 km/h. Picture of wind
hi leftyy, check your mail when you get a chance. sent you a message. know you are tired, but what's your take on blob near puerto rico?
Hurricanes are at UM in Miami, I can't stand the canes. Ohio State fan myself.
Hey palmbeacher, In case you are interested in taking a trip down memory sewer, I have some pics from Francis posted on my blog. Same to anyone else who might be interested. Lefty, let me know when you have your pics up on your blog.
subtropic, I will go look at them even though that SUCKED! That was my first hurricane, and I hated it! I have been here for 10 years so I guess I am lucky that was my first.
hey collins. sent u a rteply.gotta alot of mailfrom alotof people. i have a couple less awsome pics i am uploading in a sec as well as well as i am going to put the story of my trip into my blog.

all i can say is that i see he possibilty of 3 strong storms in the next 3-5 days. this season has been nuts
Yah but he could be a UM fan as well, in which case I'm sure he was upset about their loss to FSU. Oh sorry, hope that wasn't a sore subject! ;)

Anyway, this water vapor loop shows at least two reasons why the affectionately named "Puerto Rico Blob" won't be developing very fast.

It's sandwhiched between two large masses of relatively dry air.
subtropic, I went to your blog and it says no entries. What am I doing wrong?
palmbeacher, Don't forget about Irene in 99. It didn't come out of the east, but it was messy as well. Where I am we lost power for a few days from that one. Had two feet of water covering our street (our street is not prone to flooding). I have some pics from that one as well, but they aren't digital and I need to find the motivation to scan them in. Yep, one of these days I am going to find the motivation to scan them in. Really. I am going to do that one day.
palmbeacher, I have no entries yet. Do you not see the pics at all?
yes, WillJax..local central FL. said they will watch it "just in case" it starts to develop
will dry air will not hinder development. it will mke the storm smaller but the bigger driving factor is that the sst in that area are on fire. spmething ophelia didn't have as her sst were lower the dry air had a better chance to interfere with her
No pics at all. I forgot about Irene, we did get some flooding and a couple of tornadoes here. I guess after Francis and Jeanne I just kind of blocked that one out.

I don't follow football (aleast American) football that much. I am atypical for a male, I don't like baseball, hockey, football, basketball or NASCAR ,one of the reasons I got kicked out of the south (LOL), hunting, and beer.

I like as far as sports soccer, fenceing and demolition derbies. As far as my drink of choice Scotch, top shelf whiskey or wine
I know how you feel. My first one (in Florida) was Andrew. Not sure what's up with the blog. I will drop in a text entry and see if that brings the pictures in. When I go in there, I can see them so I didn't realize there was a problem.
I am a 29 year old girl who loves football and NASCAR. I guess it was from being apart of a family full of boys. And a cold beer is my choice. I looked at the picture of your family, very nice.
Ah, so what you're saying Lefty is that it's all about location? I'm sure the dry air somwhat intereferes, but do you mean that the high sst's are more than enough to overcome this hindrance?

I am still shocked that our predicted "week of rest" has turned into a week of tremendous tropical brewing.
subtropic, can you email them to me?
I don't know why they don't show up when I go to your blog. Maybe its just me!

Thank you, I never could get into beer (doesn't mean that I don't drink one with the nieghbor every once in a while, again unlike most typical people I know my neighbors, know their kids, know what they drive, what they do and they know the same about me. Hence I never had a issue with any of my nieghbors).

As far as age I am a bit older than you (33), my wife is 3 months younger than myself (we met via online dating service) and my kid of course is five.
ok guys a couple of new pics in my photos. not really good but as good as we could get. its a couple pics of a crazy couple who walked out into the middle of the Pamlico sound in the middle of the storm. the ne winds had emtied the sound and allowed u to walk where 5-10 feet of water used to be.
Subtropic, what ever you did worked. I just saw them. Brings back WONDERFUL memories! I work in Lake Worth, where your pics were taken.
yeah will. thats the nature oif this time of year. all formation zones are open so u can't ever call it quiet lol. and yes man location matters. thew gulf stream is warm but not the actual tropics where all our disturbacnes are located right now
Where do we go to see pics leftyy??
lol age time huh. i am 25. so young lol. also married wit 2 kids
Palm Beacher, Yes it was great fun, wasn't it? I got smart and bought a generator this year!
in the wetehrunderground pic page i think
Orion, I am happily divorced. 2 kids. my son is 9 and my daughter is 5 just like yours.
Hello lefty, I have a question... I don't post here but I do read the blog regularly..

I am wondering if you know how long the high pressure over the gulf is supposed to be there? I know it is blocking Pensacola right now, but how long will that last..

Thanks =)
Subtropic that is the best purchase anyone can make!!! They are terrific to have.
palmbeacher, I like it for the "insurance" value. I figure now that I have spent the money for one, I will nenver need it. It's like hurricane repelent.
pensecola, right now i have not looked at much data as far as track comes but after i finish my blog entry on my chase i will be checking everything so i will have an answer for you in a few mins. sorry i don't have one now. really want to put my story down on the blog and than i will get back into my mode i was in a few days ago. just give me a few mind thanks
Just read the Hurricane Hunters are investigating the system in the Lesser Antilles.
A. 17/1800Z A. 18/0600Z
C. 17/1500Z C. 18/0300Z
D. 12.5N 58.5W D. 13.5N 60.51W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2100Z E. 17/0500Z TO 17/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
No Prob. Thanks =)
Glad you got to go Lefty! I am at work now so I will talk at ya'll later.
sporteguy03 : Can you explain more what those "thing" mean.....
Hello again everyone, just state my facts Im 28 with a wonderful 5 yr old son. And working through a separation with his mother. And watching the tropics carefully. As I do not want to meet my hurricane deductible twice in 1 year.
LOL, Subtropic, that sounds great to me, why didn't you buy it last year? Could have saved us alot of trouble!
Ok stormydee, you have the dry air slots but the sst's are great for the PR Blob area. which one will win out? the radar looks like it has good outflow or am i just dense.
Lefty can you link us to your pics?

And subtropic those certainly bring back memories.
I have a picture somewhere of a tree that Frances knocked onto my house, smashing all of the water pumps (no water for weeks), and on top of the power line to the house (no power for about a week). A "perfect landing" huh?

It was, no exaggeration, 2 feet from smashing a car. Only small limbs ended up hitting the car.
Hey Subtropic I hate to tell you that it does not always work out that way. I bought a generator well before Ivan (thank God) and was glad to have it for Dennis as well. Just hoping I don't need it for a Phillipe or Rita.

Never been divorced (hopefully never will), been married once (was about to be married once, but she left me the day I was going to pop the question). My marriage wasn't the typical online dating story marriage. We did the email/phone/chat thing for a few months before we ever met. Then we dated for about 9 months before we got engaged, finally we where engaged /shackin for a few months before we got married.

hey sj. i wasgoing to call u but figured i waittill u got off of work. call me if u want later man.

i dunno if this link will work and if anyone has a link to my photos please post it to this blogg but maybe this will work

palmbeacher, that is what I ask myself as I get up to go prime a wall that was damged by Francis and destroyed by Jeanne. I just finished rebuilding it and now it's prime and paint time. On the downside, I just replace a window ac that was damaged. Now that the new one is in place, it could be a hurricane magnet? Have a good one!
gbreezegirl, I don't think they make enough hurricane repellent for the panhandle ;-)
I just moved into a house that had the roof replaced after Francis tore it off, and I didn't the primer and paint thing, what a fun time that is! You have a wonderful weekend and don't work to hard!
Cornflake, are you in Florida? I believe there is a new law passed that states you only need one hurricane deductible per season.

Anyway I found some pics from Frances last yr.:

Treehouse that knocked pumps and power, pic taken well after storm had left

Me fleeing damaged home to go to friends down the street. See if you can tell which way the wind was blowing (hint: stop sign)
Thanks palmbeacher. You do the same.
sorry TYPO, I MEAN did do
Our wonderful 'blob' is looking pretty good right now.
Wind damage reatively light?I do not think so.....There were homes and buisnesses detroyed and the heave rainfall and surge did cuase troubles,so I have to disagree with DR. Masters on this one,I think he needs to look into this a bit more because from what I have seen he is wrong.
I mean yes it wasn't too bad but pretty potent for a category 1,if it hit the northeast at that intensity then yes damage would be bad because they do not seem to be very storm resistent up there.But luckily it is rare for tropical cyclones to even affect that area as it is.
Yes, Willjax I am, Dania Beach. I have Citizens this year, and Katrina did 15-20K in damage to my home. But such a pain in the arss, these damn insurance companys are hard to work with.
sub...the NWS just likes to keep you on your toes
Well, Dr. Masters, this entry about the ITCZ getting active and your anticipation of at least one "Cape Verde" hurricane developing before the end of the month is the one I've been dreading!

The horror of Katrina has the folks here on St. Croix remembering how the island and islanders survived the direct hit by Hurricane Hugo (another extremely large, strong category 4 storm) back in September of 1989. Hugo was a Cape Verde hurricane that developed during what forecasters described as an "extraordinarily active" hurricane season. The similarities between the current percolation in the ITCZ and the 1989 activity that gave birth to Hugo are way too close for my comfort levels!

Count me among the many grateful folks who are addicted to your blog and are especially grateful for entries like todays that give us a heads up on what could be coming our way. I think a lot of folks will be keeping a close eye on this latest series of waves rolling off the African coast.

Well back on topic,

Just looked at a few places and trusting my gut here what I have to say about the next 3 storms in the next 7 days

Philippe - will form soon and be a powerful cane in the Alantic, right now equal odds on going out to sea or pounding the east coast

Rita - by the end of 7 days will be a cat 1 in the southern gulf heading for mexico

Stan - IMHO won't be formed by the end of the 7 days
orion.....not to keen on the pounding the east coast, I live on the east coast of Florida. Just like many people in NO thought that a major hurricane would not hit them, the people here have that same attitude, and it can be deadly. Some people actually think that the Cape helps to keep hurricanes away. lol
weatherdude, my mom used to be one of those people. She SWORE that she heard someone from the NHC say on a local tv show that hurricanes could not hit Delray Beach because of the shape of the coastline. When I finished my hysterical laughter, I told her she MUST have misunderstood. She got mad at me for questioning her memory.
And yes I am back. Cannot find the paint pan. (i.e. break time).
subtropic.....I KNOW that it is only a matter of time before the east central coast of FL gets a direct hit from a major storm
Yeah weatherdude. I have been saying that since right after Andrew. It really is just a matter of time.
Why in florida?There have been many in the past Jeanne a category 3 and frances(not major) a category 2 had a cost of about 8 or 9 billion,and many other hurricanes in the past have made landfall on the east coast,so I do not see why they are having the same attitude as the people in NO,but of course there is some of that everywhere,even in south florida.

Niether am I, I like hurricanes for what they are and what they represent. But I would not wish the wrath of a hurricane on my worse enemy.

However you are right people need to wake up from thier fantasy that a hurricane is not going to hit thier area just because they haven't been hit in a while.

Hurricanes don't care if your a bum or a billionare. It can't be reasoned with, it can't be wished away, we can't use any of our science or techonlogy to defeat it.

Only way we can surive is to be prepared, heed the warning signs and have the supplies on hand to clean up afterwards
As soon as the big "O" gets out of the way.....then the NHC can concentrate on the next three systems.......boy, has anyone looked at the pacific....its cranking, possible to have 4 storms in a couple of days........wow.......the atlantic could have 2 in a few days.....the area coming into the windward islands is looking good.....as well as the area above puerta rico...... it wouldnt surprise me to see both of these areas to be at least classified depressions by 24 hours......got plenty of time to watch......hope everyone survived ophelia and is well.....hoping to hear from PIRATE.....I know he had bundles of fun........
I wish I knew the answer to that Jedkins. One thing I think might be involved is the fact that some people were still not seriously affected. They start thinking they have seen the worst that can happen in their location, or that "whew, glad that's over with... That should be our share of hurricanes for a long time". Before last year you cold never have convinced some people here that two storms could hit the same area twice in two weeks. Even now, some feel we are off the hook and it's "someone else's turn".
Jedkins....I am talking about the area where I live..Cocoa Beach, Melbourne, Cape Canaveral. The storms last year hit well to our south. We did get wind and rain from them, but not cat2 or 3 winds
Hey guys... been reading your posts. I heard the Jacksonville, FL 's coastline is a huge deterrant in getting directs hits because we are curved in a little. Anyone know if there is any truth to that.. We haven't had a direct hit in 41 years.. I guess we could be do..
subtropic, yeah, I heard that word breezy... uhuh... now what's THAT mean...
due, not do... duh!!
The east coast has,I guess yall mean northeast forida because the most landfalling hurricanes than any area have occured over all south of melbourne through the keys,seocond,would be the florida panhandle,third would be NC,snd fourth the MS/AL coastline,Major hurricane landfalls would be First south florida Second I BELIEVE is the panhandle,and third would be the mississipi coast close behind the panhande,and fourth the NC coast,but east of tallahasse south to sarasota,and then north of melbourne to Jacksonville raley get that many storms,tampa gets alot of weaker systems like tropical storms and category 1's which take their toll but it has been since the 50's since a major hurricane to make a direct hit in tampa.But the northeast coast of florida doesn't get hit very often,even by weaker tropical cyclones.
cgables, It means someone in that office reads this blog and wants me to crack. Or am I just being paranoid?
palmbeacher I work in Stuart, live in Port St. Lucie
::VBG:: Sub, you and me both!!!
weatherdude65..you are right..I think it is just a matter of time..I am in Titusville...several close calls in the past but they have always managed to skirt around...the storms last year were bad enough!
A friend of the family just sent us these photos of hurricane Katrina coming ashore.. I have to admit that if I saw this headed towards me, I'd probably just soil myself on the spot. Absolutely stunning pictures.

well, back to work, catch you all later.
Let's catch a break before Phillipe and Rita, huh?
Well you know most poeple moved to hurricane prone areas during the lull in hurricane esspecially U.S. during the 70's through the 90's very little hurricane activity made landfall anywhere in the U.S. during these times(eccept andrew),but now as the pattern is changing the hurricane prone areas are highly populated in most areas that are vonerable to landfalls.
Elliston.. all I Have to say is OHMIGOSH.. Those are SO amazing... scary.. but truely amazing...
ya, 65 the cape keeps hurricanes away, have yet to have a direct hit in the recording history of hurricanes..check for yourself...Donna in 60s came thru the cape, parallel to the coast, but thats about it....
Yeah DUDE, im with ya, the cocoa area hasnt gotten any major stuff in a long time......UNTIL you experience winds over 100 mph an hour, you just dont have a clue.....BUT, once you have, you will NEVER forget the experience and you will respect it the next time it comes.....Charley was the first one to scare me.....I was sitting in my truck in downtown orlando saying to myself...this can stop anytime now....that was my first time by myself as well......and charley was stronger than I anticipated.......There was parts of roofs flying by my vehicle....I was constantly on the lookout for flying debris....I had to move to the side of a big kanes furniture store.....right next the executive airport in orlando......I knew that there strong winds, but a gust up to 105mph was reported at that airport.......right next to me......I had to keep my truck pointed at the wind.....I wish I had my camcorded, you guys would have flipped......
Okay lets begin with the "those are not pictures of a hurricane" posts. Though they still are amazing pics.
irecthh....yes they were. We had damage from Jeanne, but made it fine with Frances
Yeah, I saw them and all I could think was that they are absolutely beautiful and at the same time absolutely terrifying...
jedkins, you are absolutely correct. Particularly in my mom's case. From that perspective, this would seem abnormal. Bit from some of the old timers I used to talk to way back, they would tell me that the "quiet times" seemed strange and abnormal to them. I understood what they meant, but some people didn't get it.
whatever dudes. I personally had my doubts, since there is no rain, etc. Still, they are amazing who am I to say someone else is wrong?
How do you know they are not from Katrina?
Irecthh, you probably haven't been in Titusville long enough. Cause in 1960 we got hit pretty hard with hurricane Donna. The eye passed between Orlando and us on it's way NE'ward going out into the Atlantic north of New Smyrna. (I've been here since 59 and am in Port St john).
Those pics are not from Katrina....I know this because I have seen most of them on the weather channel site. The are truely fantastic pictures though!
Yes but it isn't ALWAYS rain in a hurricane,some of those could have been from outer bands,it didn't say 'eyewall pics' so it could be outer bands and inside the hurricane.
I had a few of those pics as wallpaper on my comp a few months ago
They are not from katrina because they are depictions of the wall clouds that are precursors to tornadic activity. These usually occur in the midwest.

If you'd like to see a gallery of wall clouds I suggest visiting this site. It's full of amazing pictures.

Also the landscape along the gulf does not even remotely resemble the landscape in most of those pictures.
Cape has a secret high tech fan that blows the storms away from the space center. lol...
In 1979 "Hurricane David" i believe hit the cocoa area pretty good.....
stormy, I've seen that fan, very impressive!! LOL
i was just lurking here and saw you mention david in 79. i was in miami for that storm i was only 7 years old but remember it very well
Sometimes if you are in between bands there are piriods of no rain I expirienced that lasy year with frances and jeanne,we are on the west coast near clearwater and they still both packed quit a punch strongest winds from frances were 65 mph,and they last a very long time for over 12 hours there were winds that high.We also picked up about 7 or 8 inches from frances.Jeanne was the worst here where the highest we got was 80 mph, and about 10 or 11 inches of rain.And that lasted for a significant amount of time,most of that 10 inches was in about a 4 hour piriod with the hurricane forcew winds we got with some powerfull squalls coming off the 90 degree water as it began to turn northwest.
Stormydee.. we have one of those high tech invisible fans also.. shhh.. it's a secret.. just like area 51..
damn i dont like the wave that is developing could be a strong hurricane it forms this one is lower then ivan :S
I had hurricane amnesia or ignorance until last year. 3 hurricanes in 6 weeks is amazing...Im in Titusville and I wonder when we will get our direct hit....I thought for sure I was screwed last year, but Jeanne insisted on following Francis track and since Jeanne was smaller, it didn't affect north brevard cty as bad as Francis did.
jedkins...the funny thing about Jeanne was that we left and went to Tampa and stayed at a hotel...and wouldnt you know it, the hotel lost power!!! Told my wife we could have stayed home and had no power!!!
oops, I didn't mean to spill the beans on our special top secret hurricane fan..sorry, hopefully, I didn't jinx us. lol
ok every one. i have put my story on my blog. hope u enjoy my adventure with ophelia. i will be checking the data and give u guys and update on those areas of concern
Jeanne was a little bit smaller but was still large,the key was frances was also moving slower than jeanne.
Rthurdent..was Donna 1960? No , I was not here then..have been here since 1965. Weatherdude..we had most of our damage from Charlie...pretty well did a "clean-out" of the large oaks in our neighborhood.No power 2 days.. Francis was not quite as bad, except for the 5 day paower loss. By the time Jeanne came through it wasn't much worse here than a bad afternoon thunderstorm (w/out the thunder and lightening)..Just lasted a lot longer...power out for about 8 hours or so.A few months after hurricane season was over, we had a bad thunderstorm and my daughter was all shook up..we told her..look you have just been through 3 hurricanes..this is only a thunderstorm.
Thanks lefty =)... Does anyone else know if the hight pressure in the Gulf will stay there for a while?
great stormy!!!! now we are in real trouble! lol
I do not know if they were as strong in tampa I am in closer to clearwater than to tampa,but they coudn't have been to different.
While David in 1979 was strong, It didn't last very long here, as it was moving north at a pretty good clip, unlike Francis and Jeanne last year that took forever to pass. They just seemed to take hours and hours to go by.
ok from the models it appers that in the next 4-5 days anything that forms will be headed towards the gulf as that high reatreats ne to ward the se us. after that high pressure will put the gulf to the se us coast in threat as the high will block anything from recurviing. this is all preliminary and more will be known in due time
i was jooking at the GFS and it looks like at day 7 a trough will be pushing toward the gulf and east coast. The high will be centered over the mid-atlantic. Leftyy, let me know what you think, when you get a chance.
Just a reminder, this is the one year anniversity of Ivan. Anyone who says this didn't hit Florida should have seen my house. I live 40 miles East on pensacola and we had 11-12 ft storm surge. Flooded my house after living in it for only 6 weeks?
Strange jeanne was definately the worst here where I am,it had a smaller area of rain once it came through, but boy when it did,it was pretty interesting here for a while.
that high will retreat. this is not a good sign for the gulf
Uh oh, here we go again...
the gfs also shows 4 possible systems forming in the next 10 days. one will form in the gulf itself. it will be a busy week
The worst damage was in Florida by far from Ivan,I do not know where you heard that one lol.
Stormydee... do you blog at work? what do you do?
very busy week. Off to get some lunch, I'll check back in in a bit.....
It was on this Blog a few weeks ago.
Wow, 4 storms in 10 days. Do you have the link to that?
heres the link for the gfs

yes, zane at work...im an office mgr for a welding co.
if u weant to read about my chase its on my blog and my pics are under my recentphotos. check it out and tell me what u think. i will have more pics in a few days as i need to get my film developed
when that blob by south america will be a TD?
Hi stormy dee...I'm at work too, I'm admin asst for welding company.. New to the blog =)

Thanks for the info lefty..
ur welcome

i think the wave near the lesser antillies will be a depression in the next 12-24 hrs. but it won't be clasified till the recon flight gets there tomm
Wow. Not the same welding company I hope. Someone could be in trouble. ;-)
man, sorry ive been short, trying all day to post pics but either im duplicating or erasing...but anyway, no one has to wonder what I look like, just click and view. :-) As I have time, I will add more pics, and if there is a dup, please ignore...dial up + upload pics = crashing puter. lol
ya, 21, those welders are c.r.a.z.y.!!! lol No, I have a pretty cool boss who lets me blog w/out complaining, besides, he likes my "tropical updates"...calls me cheif meteorologist. lol
thanks stormy. ur not so bad looking afterall lol
cute pic stormy! I uploaded my pic with my son.. it's pending approval..?..?
lol, i just blog in between tasks... hehe

have to keep up with the weather!!
nice pics lefty! :-) thanks for the compliment.
yeah i think they just make sure its not likeporn or something so it should egt approved

yeah stormy i will ahve some good pics of the ocean in killdevilhills in a few days as well
Check out the CMC :D They have a little something coming towards North Florida in 72 hours. Thankfully, it's not very reliable.

I am approved! I uploaded a pic of my son and I. : ) BTW--Lefty.. great pictures!
I just observed the satllit view of Ophella around 2:30 PM EST. It sees that the convection around the storm has circulated from the West side to the East side and Ophelia has become better organized again. Also, the tract seems to be more North. Could this storm again strengthen and hook more Left????

I am just a layman trying to understand hurricanes better and i have gained a lot from your blogs.

Correction on my comment
I meant that the convection around Ophelia has circulated from the EAST side to the West (closer to the EAST cost) and it seems to be better organized.
I found my francis aftermath pics but I have to get them scanned so I can take a year on this site to upload them. lol...but give me time, I will get them on here eventually.
Back to the tropics, amazing that we still don't have a t.d....I guess the shear is still to high today, Ill have to watch from home this weekend. After looking at this Link, there better be some td or ts or hurricane come Monday, or better yet, a few storms so we'll have plenty to talk about. I know there is enough convection, come on earth, spin them babies, spin them tight! Have a great weekend!
For those of you in South Florida that are interested, this is from the MIA NWS discussion just released:

Over the next couple of days...tropical wave will be approaching the local area with a gradual increase in probability of precipitation. However...as the
wave approaches the local area on Sunday...the middle level ridge will also be building east into the southeast through the weekend. This should limit the effect of the wave so have decided to increase the probability of precipitation only to 30-40 percent by late in the weekend and Monday.

Take that for what it's worth.
Exactly Stormy, lol!
To me, looking at the IR loop, it looks like convection's subsiding a bit (redder = bigger clouds) and it looks like it's getting weaker and more extratropical. I'm not even sure where the center is on that loop!
I see four areas of possible tropical low formation on the IR loop Atlantic. There may already be three areas of TD formation.
wondering when the first Ts will excist
thanks sub for the info
Anytime flacanefan.
Okay, looking at it and comparing it with the visible, it looks like the convection's basically confined to the N and NW, which would mean it's weakening?
opehlia is being sheared. she is on her last leg.

its a race between the pr blob and the atlantic wave. the atlantic wave has been getting better orginised all day and since it all ready has a surface low i expect it to be the first one to develop. i expect it to develop in the enxt 12-24 hrs while the pr blob will take 2-3 days
Yes, but despite all of the areas of possible formation we are discussing, the NHC has still only posted that one spot near S. America as an area of possible cyclone formation in the next 36 hrs.

I suppose the others will take more time?
yeah will. its because that wave already has a low pressure cenetr and a llc so its more prone to developing than say a mass of t-storms by pr. that system needs to form a low pressure cenetr and that will take 24-36 hrs anyway than it could be another 24 hrs befor it develops into a td
The PR blob show sign of ungornization. May be he will go a litle bit more south over Haiti Island and disipate. Did some people have the same point of view with me. Picture at 2h40 EST.
Hey lefy, you said there could possibly be a storm developing in the gulf in the next 2 weeks? Also, do you agree with the latest models out for the wave in the Atlantic? The GFDL keeps dissipating it..
LOL, sorry I know I'm a bug.. Questions... Questions. Questions (typical woman) hehe
Not looking forward to anything developing in the Gulf. Hey Pensacola 21 should we be packing our bags and gassing up the generators again?
You got that right girl... I hope not, lol... We have about had it here....
the gfdl is not a good model for a developing system. not most models are. the gfs does pretty good at showing development and thats the model i use when i predict if a storm will form.
gfs shows a storm developing in the gulf near the bay of campeche in about 9 days or so
jcpoulard, me personally wouldn't want to guess just yet. Since there is not yet a low pressure center, it's hard to know where it will form exactly. If it forms farther south, you may be correct. If it forms farther north, maybe not. Keep an eye (no pun intended) on where the center finally developes and obviously, watch the cloud patterns. One thing I do believe is it will not develope quickly (but don't go by me), but a lot of convection and rain south of it could impact Haiti. I know too much rain in Haiti can be a very bad thing.
Thanks again lefty. I will remember that... The storms that develop in the Bay of Campeche usually drift off towards Mexico or Texas, right?
Like your pictures Lefty..I uploaded a few I had from Hurricane Charlie last fall...however, I am not sure why some duplicate. Lots of tree debris, luckily we had no immediate structural damage. It was bad enough as it was!!
When I say "but a lot of convection and rain south of it could impact Haiti" I mean IF there is a lot of rain south of it. That is not a prediction. There may or may not be.
where they go depends on the steering winds. it loks to head east but its so far out who knows and it may not even develop. was just mentioning it as tthe gfs has been onfire this year in showing a storm develop in the long term

yeah thatnks, will check ur pics out. i have some decent pics of the beach i will post after i develop the film from that camera. the pics on my blog are from killdeveilmax's digital camera and he sent them to me last night so i posted them imdediatley for u guys
I do not say the PR blob going to develop buy the "tunderstoms" will go over south and some part of "him" will disipated over Haiti Island (Haiti + DR)
Thanks again...
Cool pics
hey all

question...is it possible that Ophelia hooks slightly left and brushes Montauk Point?
Does anyone have the link for the GFS? thanks ;)
link to the gfs

anything is possible with ophelias track. models are not in a concensus on what it will be but her impacts would be light if it happened. most of her stronger winds are on the east side of her
be back on later u guys. going to take a nap lol
k thanks

just wondering because the current heading (NNE at 25) would bring it probably right over Montauk
jcpoulard. Yes that is possible. That's what I meant by
"but a lot of convection and rain south of it could impact Haiti."
looks like the one next at 15 N and 49 W is developing the clouds are centering
Did some one know a good college where I can learn to be a Forecaster.
there's suddenly like 58 areas of convection to watch lol
Anyone that is from the Raleigh/Durham, NC area that tunes into WTVD11, recall the meteorologist Betty Davis? I never liked her too much but she is now on The Weather Channel?!? Ha, what a joke.

Any thoughts on the possible coming 3 ehhh....4 storms?

- C
Hello all! Been out all day. What's the latest on the blob and the wave? Anything new and exciting?
jc....Florida State has a very good meteorology program. I suggest you check them out.
4 areas of interest that I see...

1. Tropical Storm Ophelia
2. Disturbance northeast of Puerto Rico
3. Low ESE of the Windward Islands
4. Large cluster of thunderstorms forming WSW of Cape Verdes

Also...is that cluster of storms near Panama anything significant or just daytime storms? I can never really tell there always seems to be something down there lol
Thanks, WMD! I just looked at TWC pix and was impressed. Quite messy out there...Link
WMD = weathermandan :)
Zane, I don't see your pic w/son! :(
WMD = weathermandan :) <---ok I like JUST figured that out LOL....heh
oops...I only noticed it myself after I read my post. :)
Like I said before - 4 areas.
Looking at the latest vis loop, I say that we will have TD17 either at 5pm or 11pm today.

scroll up to the link for the GFS in one of leftyy's posts and check it out. very interesting
Cool picture. I hope it's 5 pm. I hate staying up for the 11 a.m. and then getting no new information. Are there any models out yet for the PR blob?
When does the recon come out on the invest?
nothing yet for "THE BLOB"
Thanks collins!

Hey!! It looks like PR Blob goes right over my house! I can't imagine it would be very strong then, however.
They don't go out untill tomorrow

A. 17/1800Z A. 18/0600Z
C. 17/1500Z C. 18/0300Z
D. 12.5N 58.5W D. 13.5N 60.51W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2100Z E. 17/0500Z TO 17/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Models for the "Blob" lol.
Blob... starts to sound like a sci-fi movie...

Monster Shear vs. The Blob!!! Can the Blob survive?
yep, looks like it comes over you. that's why i was hoping you would check it out. i'm up in central florida...mount dora...nw of orlando.
Good to know, Collins, cuz when the "big one" comes, I'll be knocking on your door :)

We had an interesting discussion last night about how South Florida would evacuate if a monster storm was coming. My thought is we couldn't.
Hispanola is very mountainous. If blob follows that track it may be not much of anything on the other side.
i read the discussion last night. the scenario is very scary. se florida is packed with folks and few highways out. i hope and pray you don't have to ever do it. but, come on up, we'll find you a place!
why until tommorow the should be faster...
coconut creek...took family members 9 hours to get from St. Lucie to Ocala during Jeanne last year. What a nightmare!! I drove across the state to Bradenton and it only took 3 1/2 hours. My advice is to go west, not north
CoconutCreek... we should keep an "eye" on it.. local mets are not very useful when a system is this far out... the girl on Channel 10 said she's keeping an eye on it.......Boy do I feel better...
Catcane... wow! You should have been around last night. I don't know if west would help because it isn't really very far and the storm would just go right across. I'm going to collins :)
you make a good point. I95 and the turnpike would be a zoo. best advice for anyone is to monitor any storm and if you are gonna leave, do it early!
Bills: I agree. I feel much more confident knowing that her eye is on it. Maybe she can give it the evil eye and make it go away.. lol

Is this the woman that talks really really fast and flaps her arms? I don't know her name but she is reallly annoying.
I still don't understand why they don't open southound lanes to northbound traffic during evacuation...that is suposed to be the plan, but I don't remember it ever happening. I would almost rather ride it out in my closet with a mattress over my head than spend 9 hours on the road with a carsick toddler. Almost.
I don't know why either. Maybe it's for emergency vehicles or a turn around for those that are going north and realize they are going to ride out a storm in their car so they go home to their mattress which is safer. They should leave one south lane open and turn everything else north.
Ophelia strengthened a little...winds are now up to 65 mph instead of 60......
FYI: the 5 p.m. for ophelia is posted. nothing listed for TD 17 yet.
Took a friend of mine 17 hours to get from Jupiter to Orlando when Andrew was coming. We stayed and got lucky as he turned south at the end. Best bet is no matter what direction you are going take the state highways like 60, 74 etc. Most Northerners that now reside down here have no idea about them. They usually have decent speed limits as well.
Did your friend have any trouble with gas? Someone mentioned last night the issue of running out of gas and all the stations being out b/c of so many cars.
hey fellow floridians,
let's face it. for all practical purposes, we live on an island. best to be prepared with supplies, keep a diligent eye on developments and have a couple of evac routes planned if you are in a vulnerable location. hey, i got laughed at last year for putting up my storm shutters when charley was hooking around the keys. two days later i had neighbors begging me for plywood!
I don't remember him telling me but I will ask him next time I talk to him.
My mom tried to get out during Jeanne also and spent 90 min in car and got about 12 miles. She finally had to turn around and go home because there was no gas in the area and she was afraid of running out on the road.
good evening all. headed home for the weekend. back monday to see what has been born over the weekend.
still have my plywood up from Dennis on my garage windows and the spare bedroom. The rest is piled up on my back porch. Can't be too careful in the panhandle you know!
Yeah. Like I mentioned yesterday, watching this board and other info might give us a heads-up when something is coming. Katrina was supposed to hit Pompano Beach first and then ended up going south. Nonetheless, I was able to leisurely get my supplies the night before the rush. We can't control nature but we can have a certain amount of comfort being as ready as we can be. It's a terrible feeling trying to put up the only plywood you can find (from the attic) when the winds are already picking up.

I had to beg my husband to take the shutters down last year. He had to put them up twice and didn't want to do it again. They didn't come down until Thanksgiving.
Bye Collins! Have a great weekend.
We have the cheap panel shutters that you have to put up individually and a 2-story house. I have "panel envy" of those with accordian shutters :)
gbreeze: how are you all doing up there. I had an aunt in W. Palm who lost who roof in Frances and just got it fixed 2 months ago. Are there still alot of blue tarps by you?
I want that Rhino glass in my next house so we never have to put up shutters (or live in darkness) again.
Everyone have a good weekend....by Monday we may have 2 systems to deal with.....bye
cat: that would be awesome! It's like a cave with them on and it's weird hearing the storms but not being able to see anything. I'm not sure if it would be better or worse to see the stuff flying by.
coconutcreekfla. Talk about panel envy. For Francis I was out there putting up plywood that dated back to hurricane Irene (no excuse for that... btw). Most of it disintegrated in my hands. One of the few peices I got up was eventually pulled off by the wind and thrown back into the window - thus causing the only broken window from that torm. Oh well. I'm here to laugh about it right?
Bye, Weatherdude!
have a good one weatherdude. torm = storm in my last post btw.
I'll never see it anyway, CCF (coconutcreekfla). Talked husband into staying for Frances last year (his first storm) and he'll never do that again. He still curses me every time he thinks about it.
That must have been scary. We've been lucky down here (I'm right in the middle of where Andrew hit and where Frances hit) so we've only had the outskirts of storms. My worst damage was part of a tree down and a mess. Nothing at all really. I can't imagine how scary it would be to have a window break or roof issue in the middle of a storm.
Hi Coconut Creek- We are doing okay up here. Still a lot of blue tarps around. I still have privacy fencing down around my house. Maybe I should wait until after Nov 15 to put it back up. Been blown down twice already this year! We put the plywood back up for Katrina and decided to only take down the necessary windows for light. I do envy those folks with shutters but have some neighbors that did not have those hold up in Ivan.
Breeze: I'd wait. I've wanted to put some trees around my house and decided to wait until after Hurricane season b/c you just know the second I do that a nice storm will come heading my way :). We've also decided not to buy any perishable food from costco until after hurricane season b/c we hate to throw stuff out.
Although I definitely didn't mind being forced to eat all the melting ice-cream after Katrina :)
ccf. Glad to hear you had minimal damage. We lost the west wall eventually (between Francis and Jeanne). No windows on that part of the house though. The broken window sounds more dramatic than it was really. At that time, I started laughing because I realized that it was "I" who had caused the worst initial damage by not being better prepared. How ironic. Probably the scariest thing was the walls shaking. This is a concrete block house, so that came as a surprise.
ccf that's funny. We did the same with the ice cream, but I was so full of ice cream after 2 days, I ended up giving the last to my neighbor. By then it was more like a milk shake. And not a thick milk shake.
What city are you in subtropic?
He is feeling much better - btw.
Cat1 Lake Worth. I have some pics in my blog if you are interested.
There are 9 right now. You may need to use the "subtropic's Wunder Photos" link to see them all. Dr Masters hs posted new blog.
Hiya :)
Just waving, as I just got back from Acklins Island, in the southern Bahamas -- lovely island; but not cable there :( Now, I am watching the PR "blob" today, as it could affect those southern island soon.
Cool pics, subtropic. Are you finally finished with repairs?
Subtropic. You aren't far at all. I have a cousin in Smith Farm. When frances hit closer to you, our second story felt like it was swaying alittle and we were way south. It must have been something else up by you.
FYI: new NHC tropic updateLink
I'm out...have to feed family. Catch you all later.