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Onshore winds push radioactivity towards Tokyo

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on March 21, 2011

Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant are headed to the southwest towards Tokyo today, carried by onshore northeasterly winds. An elongated area of low pressure is located off the southeast coast of Japan, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this low may bring several periods of onshore northeasterly winds through Tuesday to northern Japan. According to the latest trajectory plots from NOAA's HYSPLIT model, air moving towards Tokyo today will be lifted by the ascending air associated with the low pressure system, and the radioactive particles may not make it all the way to Tokyo before getting lifted high enough that they get caught in a strong upper-level flow of air from the southwest and carried out to sea. Latest radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a wide region of light rain affecting Tokyo and surrounding regions, and this rain will tend to remove the great majority of the radioactive particles from the air in a few hours, so it is uncertain how much radioactivity might make it to Tokyo. High pressure will begin building in on Tuesday over Japan, and wind will gradually shift to blow out the north, which would carry radioactivity offshore just to the east of Tokyo. Offshore winds are expected on Wednesday, but onshore winds could re-develop late in the week as a new weak low pressure system affects the region. Radiation at the levels being reported coming from the troubled plant are not high enough to be of concern to human heath outside of Japan, so I will not be posting further plots showing the long-range path of the radioactivity unless there is a major explosion resulting in a significant release of radioactive emissions.


Figure 1. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Monday, March 21, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get blown by northeasterly winds close to Tokyo, before getting lifted high enough to get caught in a strong flow of air from the southwest that carries the radioactive air out to sea. Image created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 2. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Tuesday, March 22, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Northerly winds are predicted to carry radioactivity just to the east of Tokyo. A modest wind shift could bring the radioactivity to the city. Image created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant

The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.

Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution Earthquake

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A banana equivalent dose (BED) is an idea intended to place in scale the dangers of radiation by comparing exposures to the radiation generated by a common banana.
Time flies like an arrow, and fruit flies like a banana...
...which explains where labs get all their mutant fruit flies from.

Japan's...government has ordered the...Fukushima, Ibaraki, Tochigi and Gunma prefectures to suspend shipments of spinach and rapeseed after radiation exceeding the regulation limit was detected in some produce. The government also ordered Fukushima prefecture not to sell milk.

For instance, a [kilogram] of spinach grown in the open air near the city of Hitachi, about 60 miles south of the Fukushima power plant, was found to contain 54,000 becquerels of iodine-131. The allowable government limit is 2,000 -- or 27 times lower.
The cesium-137 level in Hitachi spinach was about 2,000 becquerels, four times the safety threshold.

Tohoku was traditionally considered the granary of Japan because it supplied Sendai and the Tokyo-Yokohama market with rice and other farm commodities. Tohoku provided 20 percent of the nation's rice crop.

TokyoElectricPowerCompany "By the way, we haven't made some scheduled safety inspections at FukushimaDaiichi."
Nuclear&IndustrialSafetyAgency "You did? We're cool, bro. Call us back whenever ya get around to it."
Newest runs.. a new angle~ looking at what has happened so far plus the next few days.


Ausbreitung der Wolke von Fukushima/Edelgas Xe-133/ (globales Bild)
%uFFFD ZAMG

Thanks, Doc.

So far, *some* response in radiation measurements in Tokyo.

The last 24 hours:


The last week for some sense of relative scale:


Another Tokyo site (more complete):
I saw a report yesterday that indicated that radiation has made it's way into the food chain. Can anyone confirm this?
Thanks, Skye. You are a wealth of information. Very much appreciated.
Japan Earthquake: iRobot Sending Packbots and Warriors to Fukushima Dai-1 Nuclear Plant

The Special Ops group of Japan's Self Defense Forces has asked iRobot for some robotic assistance with the situation at the Fukushima Dai-1 nuclear plant, where several reactors are dangerously unstable after a 9.0-magnitude earthquake followed by a tsunami led to failures of their cooling systems last week.

Four robots, including iRobot's Packbot 510 and Warrior 710, left Bedford, Mass., this morning on their way to Japan, along with a team of iRobot employees to provide support, an iRobot spokesperson told me.

The iRobot team will be training Japanese defense personnel, who will control the robots remotely, from a protected vehicle, and iRobot employees will not be getting close to the reactors themselves.

These robots may be able assist at Fukushima Dai-1 in several different ways. The Packbot 510s are equipped with HazMat payloads [photo below], which can detect temperature, gamma radiation, explosive gases and vapors, and toxic chemicals, and feed all of that data back to their controllers in real-time.

According to the iRobot spokesperson, the Warriors may be used as robotic "firefighters," pulling hoses into hot zones inside the nuclear plant to help direct the flow of cooling water. Whether the robots will actually carry out that mission is unclear at this point.

Both of these robots are equipped with cameras that stream live video back to their operators, who steer them using game-style controllers. The bots have a wireless range of over 600 meters (being dropped 1.8 m (6 ft) onto concrete, and will continue to function even after being completely submerged in water. The Warrior 710 is even able to carry Packbots on its back, and deploy them into structures through windows.

Details are still a bit scarce on what the timeline for iRobot is here; we just know that they've packed up their robots and are on their way with plans to help. We'll be bringing you updates as they're available.Link
Thanks Rookie. Surprised to see that back door cold front bringing that down over FL & parts of the Caribbean like that..

Here's the one for Japan.
Happy WMO day everyone. 61 years today.
I translated this. Goes with the animated models...

The color scaling shows at present altogether 5 colors. By %u201EAREA E %u201Careas are marked, which are loaded at present with an effective dose of approx. 10 milli Sievert per hour, which due to the data in a 25x25 km2 box a maximum estimation is. %u201EThe AREA A %u201C(violet color) limits a region with a maximum load of 0,3 micro Sievert per hour. This value corresponds to the dose rate of the middle global background load. Simulations of the passive noble gas 133Xe since beginning of the accident (10,3 approx. 8 UTC) show that meanwhile strongly diluted air from Fukushima (factor 10000 to 1000000) reached the east of Russia, the west of the USA, Alaska and Canada (see illustration). Due to the deposition however the particles are constantly washed, while noble gases remain in the atmosphere. Strahlungsdaten/CTBTO The present radiation data of the CTBTO (last actualization today, data from the 18.3. 2011) show that radiation is observed at present to Russia and California also in Alaska as well as in the west of Canada. The Jod-131 of values in Alaska (station sand POINT) was within the range of mBqm-3, in Canada (station Sydney, Vancouver) an order of magnitude under it. A health relevance does not exist.

Dr. Gerhard Wotawa
Stabsstelle Daten/Methoden/Modelle
Zentralanstalt fr Meteorologie und Geodynamik
Hohe Warte 38, 1190 Wien
Skye,
Eine gesundheitliche Relevanz besteht nicht.
A health relevance does not exists.

Been corrected already, but I don't know how to cancel this post.

A friend sent me this first person tour of Chernobyl. It's fascinating and sad - many images of the 'Ghost Town' left behind.

Link
A hole lot of rain for thirsty NSW



DOZENS of people were evacuated last night after flash flooding swept through the Illawarra, cutting major roads, crippling public transport and claiming the life of a man who was washed into a stormwater drain.

The SES evacuated 30 people from the Windang Caravan Park because of rising waters in Lake Illawarra last night and a further nine rural properties at Jerrara Dam, west of Kiama, were evacuated in case the dam burst.

The SES made 35 rescues, with more than a dozen preschool children saved from the Kookaburra Kinder childcare centre at Jamberoo.

Roads, drains and other infrastructure in suburbs south of Wollongong collapsed after more than 155mm of rain fell in just four hours.

At Warilla, a man's body was washed up in a stormwater drain shortly before 3.30pm. Police are investigating whether the man, thought to be aged in his 40s, drowned after being swept away.

SES spokesman Phil Campbell said crews received 587 calls for help around the Illawarra by 9pm, including several motorists stranded by rising water levels.

Flooded roads created havoc for tens of thousands of motorists throughout the day.

The Princes Highway was cut for hours at Albion Park, where almost 230mm of rain fell in six hours.

Traffic was stationary for hours as people tried to flee the deluge, with many other roads closed and train services cut because of the flooding.

No trains will run between Unanderra and Bomaderry today because of damage to the South Coast Line.

Buses replaced some trains last night and will be used this morning unless roads are closed again due to flash flooding.

Weather Channel meteorologist Dick Whitaker said the rain was due to the southern movement of the low pressure trough that dropped record rainfall on parts of Sydney over the weekend.

The wet weather also caused problems further north.

In Gosford, a giant sinkhole tore open a suburban street after heavy rain infiltrated a sewer main, causing it to fail.

The hole first opened up on Sunday afternoon, gradually widening to become an 8m-wide, 6m-deep chasm by yesterday afternoon.

SES controller Rolf Garda said it "was the most amazing thing I have seen".

"When I got there it was about 2m square and no one knew what to do so I called our guys, the council and local police," he said. "When I left about a half an hour later it had grown to 5m by 5m. It was just slumping in on itself."
Quoting ParkerPark:
A friend sent me this first person tour of Chernobyl. It's fascinating and sad - many images of the 'Ghost Town' left behind.

Link

I have seen that before, I can't remember where?
15. JRRP

Quoting European58:
Skye,
Eine gesundheitliche Relevanz besteht nicht.
A health relevance does not exists.

Been corrected already, but I don't know how to cancel this post.




Du schreibst sehr gut auf Deutsch.
Really lively in here today, eh what?
Quoting Skyepony:
Newest runs.. a new angle~ looking at what has happened so far plus the next few days.


Ausbreitung der Wolke von Fukushima/Edelgas Xe-133/ (globales Bild)
%uFFFD ZAMG



That is a disturbing little map you got there, Skye. Where did you find it. Didn't think it would reach all the way to Florida.
Quoting Dodabear:
Really lively in here today, eh what?


A lot going on in the world today. Not all good either. Skye has posted some good information today. She does that well.
For anyone concerned over U.S. radiation levels... (edit)

The EPA has simplified the process for inet viewing of radiation data from fixed monitors on the U.S. West Coast, Hawaii and Alaska.

In any event, state officials Friday echoed their federal counterparts in saying there is no current or expected health risk anywhere in the United States associated with the Japan crisis.

Still, the federal government said there were measurable effects. The EPA and Department of Energy said in a joint statement Friday that sensitive instruments in Sacramento, Calif., associated with nuclear test ban monitoring had detected "minuscule" traces of radioactive isotopes iodine-131, cesium-137 and tellurium-132. The substances are fission products that most likely came from the stricken reactor complex, the agencies said. On Wednesday and Thursday, a device in Washington state detected similar traces of another radioactive fission product, xenon-133, an inert gas, they said.

The agencies said the health effects of the material would be insignificant.


Link

Please forgive me if this is old news.

Just saw two male Robins in a dive-bomb fight over a female. Must be Spring.
:)

Have a good Moonday, everyone.
We had some weird weather today- woke up to thunder this am at 6, with the temp at 42. I made fun of my teenager at 7:15 for wearing shorts and flips to school as chilly as it was- until 10:15, when I left for work and saw it was already 66 degrees. It's in the upper 70's now, with more thunder rumbling off to the west. That's a 34 degree change in 3 hours. That's certainly not a record, but very unusual for where we live (mid-altantic, on the eastern slope of the Appalachians). Severe storms are possible later today. I can finally say- spring is here :)))
Well, here's a little good news...:) at this time, anyway....

Link



Supposed map,

real data:



local observations.
snowing at my house!!
Quoting Grothar:


A lot going on in the world today. Not all good either. Skye has posted some good information today. She does that well.






Good morning, Grothar!

Do you have your car keys? What about your glasses? Your remote? ... Are there any other items we might need to add to that list? Don't fret too much. There have been days that I wish I had a pair of glasses to use to find my glasses!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:






Good morning, Grothar!

Do you have your car keys? What about your glasses? Your remote? ... Are there any other items we might need to add to that list? Don't fret too much. There have been days that I wish I had a pair of glasses to use to find my glasses!

hey Rookie...Grothar speaking in "foreign tongues" today...lol...he's good though..
Sorry for the double post....click once doesnt work, click twice and get two.....go figure.
Kyodo: Radioactive iodine 126.7 times higher detected in seawater near nuke plant (01:35)

Kyodo: Radioactive cesium 24.8 times higher detected in seawater near nuke plant (01:37)

Kyodo: Too early to assess contaminated seawater's impact on fishery product: TEPCO (01:38)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Heah Rookie...Grothar speaking in "foreign tongues" today...lol...he's good though..




I saw that, Eyes. Do you think he is keeping something from us?
**That's a 34 degree change in 3 hours**

no it isn't! My Monday brain wanted to say 4 hours!
Traces of low, non-harmful radiation consistent near Tokyo:



Link
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:




I saw that, Eyes. Do you think he is keeping something from us?


hmmm....could be...dont blame him..:)
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Kyodo: Radioactive iodine 126.7 times higher detected in seawater near nuke plant (01:35)

Kyodo: Radioactive cesium 24.8 times higher detected in seawater near nuke plant (01:37)

Kyodo: Too early to assess contaminated seawater's impact on fishery product: TEPCO (01:38)




I wonder if this will result in a fishing ban and sales of their seafood. I guess we will find out. I would think that food will come in short supply for Japan. The tsunami destroyed a lot of farmland even after they clear the debris.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


hmmm....could be...dont blame him..:)





Should he be wise, and he is wise, that would be advisable for him to do so. LOL
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:




I wonder if this will result in a fishing ban and sales of their seafood. I guess we will find out. I would think that food will come in short supply for Japan. The tsunami destroyed a lot of farmland even after they clear the debris.

Yeah at least in the immediate future, I suspect their fishing industry may be partially affected. I just hope nothing is long-term.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:






Good morning, Grothar!

Do you have your car keys? What about your glasses? Your remote? ... Are there any other items we might need to add to that list? Don't fret too much. There have been days that I wish I had a pair of glasses to use to find my glasses!


OH, you're talking to me??
Yes, I think I have everything in order. Skye and others have posted some good info today. Things don't look good around the world. I hope there is better news this week. We still haven't had rain in ages. Not a drop for months. Very unusual.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yeah at least in the immediate future, I suspect their fishing industry may be greatly affected. I just hope nothing is long-term.



I agree, CAT5. They will be under duress for several years, I fear. You have to wonder how long it will take for them to fully recover or if that is even possible.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


hmmm....could be...dont blame him..:)


Nah, I would never keep anything from you guys. Just wonder why Skye always ask someone to translate articles for her when she knows what I do for a living. LOL
Quoting Grothar:


OH, you're talking to me??
Yes, I think I have everything in order. Skye and others have posted some good info today. Things don't look good around the world. I hope there is better news this week. We still haven't had rain in ages. Not a drop for months. Very unusual.




Surrounded by water, and not a drop to spare. Hopefully, a TS will bring some relief soon enough. This will not happen this week.
Quoting Grothar:


Nah, I would never keep anything from you guys. Just wonder why Skye always ask someone to translate articles for her when she knows what I do for a living. LOL


I know, ...trying to psyche myself up a little. Got to get some of this pine pollen out of the house today, everthing has a "golden hue" and makes the nose go crazy. Check ya later :)
Quoting Grothar:


Nah, I would never keep anything from you guys. Just wonder why Skye always ask someone to translate articles for her when she knows what I do for a living. LOL




Skye seems like someone that never wishes to impose on others. I think she also knows you will always be a gentleman and translate for her. This blog would suffer without the presence of either of you.
Quoting Grothar:


That is a disturbing little map you got there, Skye. Where did you find it. Didn't think it would reach all the way to Florida.


Bear in mind that the halflife of Xe-133 is 5.3 days
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Kyodo: Radioactive iodine 126.7 times higher detected in seawater near nuke plant (01:35)

Kyodo: Radioactive cesium 24.8 times higher detected in seawater near nuke plant (01:37)

Kyodo: Too early to assess contaminated seawater's impact on fishery product: TEPCO (01:38)


I-131 halves at 8 days; Cesium is the one to look for with a halflife of 30 years
Quoting Floodman:


Bear in mind that the halflife of Xe-133 is 5.3 days



Thanks, Flood. That is very good information to know. Do we know what other isotopes may be carried this far?
Quoting Floodman:


Bear in mind that the halflife of Xe-133 is 5.3 days



Sure, Flood, I am sure everyone knows that. The clerk at the 7-11 explained the degeneration of Cesium and other radioactive materials to me quite well.
Quoting Grothar:



Sure, Flood, I am sure everyone knows that. The clerk at the 7-11 explained the degeneration of Cesium and other radioactive materials to me quite well.
Just goes to show how the economy is when a nuc phys is working the 7-11... How you been Flood?
msnbc.com news services
updated 48 minutes ago 2011-03-21T16:42:40


FUKUSHIMA, Japan — Gray smoke rose from two reactor units Monday, temporarily stalling critical work to reconnect power lines and restore cooling systems to stabilize Japan's radiation-leaking nuclear complex.

Workers are racing to bring the nuclear plant under control, but the process is proceeding in fits and starts, stalled by incidents like the smoke and by the need to work methodically to make sure wiring, pumps and other machinery can be safely switched on.

"Our crisis is still going on. Our crisis is with the nuclear plants. We are doing everything we can to bring this to an end," Gov. Yuhei Sato of Fukushima prefecture, where the plant is located, told the more than 1,000 people moved away from the plant into a gymnasium. "Don't give up. We know you are suffering."

Great article on WU in the NYT this am Link

I hope this ia a live link!
Quoting Grothar:



Sure, Flood, I am sure everyone knows that. The clerk at the 7-11 explained the degeneration of Cesium and other radioactive materials to me quite well.


The guy at our 7-11 and I are building a cyclotron; it's easy using old Slurpee machine parts...
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Just goes to show how the economy is when a nuc phys is working the 7-11... How you been Flood?


Not too bad, all things being equal...you?
Quoting Floodman:


Not too bad, all things being equal...you?
I am becoming a champion thumb twiddler!
We tried once in High Schul wit da "cotton candy machine",..but well,itsa Long story
Quoting Floodman:


The guy at our 7-11 and I are building a cyclotron; it's easy using old Slurpee machine parts...



I always wondered why the Slurpees had a bit of a glow to them and why radioactive isotopes can be had in strawberry flavor. I just never realized that the machinery was interchangeable. LOL
Quoting Patrap:
We tried once in High Schul wit da "cotton candy machine",..but well,itsa Long story



Sounds like you may have gotten into a bit of a sticky situation?
Quoting Patrap:
We tried once in High Schul wit da "cotton candy machine",..but well,itsa Long story


Niiice...radioactive sugar based napalm...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I always wondered why the Slurpees had a bit of a glow to them and why radioactive isotopes can be had in strawberry flavor. I just never realized that the machinery was interchangeable. LOL


The cherry's really good...you can read by it
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

The EPA has simplified the process for inet viewing of radiation data from fixed monitors on the U.S. West Coast, Hawaii and Alaska


Thanks for this informative link. According to the EPA, these monitors collect particles from the air, and measure the amount of radiation:
RadNet fixed (permanent) air monitors sample continuously at a nominal flow rate of 60 cubic meters per hour (Adults typically breathe at a rate of about 20 cubic meters per day.) The monitors collect any particles in the sample on a filter. Radiation detectors continuously measure the beta and gamma radioactivity from particles on the filter.


As such, they are useful for understanding the amount of particles deposited on any given day. However, I don't breathe air on the west coast, but I eat leafy greens and milk grown there. As such, I am more interested in the cumulative amount of particles deposited.

Is there an analysis of these data that shows cumulative amount of particles? Seems like it would make a good science fair project...
Quoting Grothar:



Sure, Flood, I am sure everyone knows that. The clerk at the 7-11 explained the degeneration of Cesium and other radioactive materials to me quite well.


A lot of fission by-products are very radioactive and have relatively short half-lives. Cesium is a worry, but strontium is more of a concern as it can act as a calcium replacement (it can stay in the body for decades).

Iodine 131 is only a short term concern as it decays rapidly so after a month almost all of it gone. Cesium 137 and Strontium 90 have half-lives of around 30 years, so they stick around a while. Cesium has a biological half-life of about 70 days, so it does cycle out of the body but if you keep consuming more than you are eliminating you can get problems.


Lots of high shear out there although the tendency is below average Shear. Something we need to start watching really close come May 1st!!!!!

going to be a big problem in the upcoming decades (if we make it that far) what to do we all this spent nuclear fuel.
The Atlantic is a little more warmer than in past weeks as this update of the anomalies shows.

So, the USCG did apparently test something completely different from the oil.

USCG: Sediment_ LA oil two different incidents

The U.S. Coast Guard says a large patch of brown mystery substance spotted on the Gulf of Mexico off Louisiana this weekend was river sediment. The Coast Guard is also investigating what it says is an unrelated incident, in which oil washed up on some parts of the coast.

A cutter was dispatched to collect samples of the mysterious brown patch Saturday, and Chief Petty Officer John Edwards of the U.S. Coast Guard says tests didn't find anything ominous.

"Basically, sediment which we believe to be from dredging operations and high water in the Mississippi River," said Edwards.

That was Saturday. a day later, an oily substance washed up on Grand Isle, Elmer's Island and Fourchon Beach.

"It looks like oil, it smells like oil, we're treating like oil," Chief Edwards said.

Chief Edwards said one thing the Coast Guard is certain about is that the two incidents aren't related.

"We did take samples to make sure," he said. "This is two separate entities altogether."
http://www.wwl.com/USCG--Sediment--LA-oil-two-dif ferent-incidents/9442771
Quoting neurogeek:


Thanks for this informative link. According to the EPA, these monitors collect particles from the air, and measure the amount of radiation:
RadNet fixed (permanent) air monitors sample continuously at a nominal flow rate of 60 cubic meters per hour (Adults typically breathe at a rate of about 20 cubic meters per day.) The monitors collect any particles in the sample on a filter. Radiation detectors continuously measure the beta and gamma radioactivity from particles on the filter.


As such, they are useful for understanding the amount of particles deposited on any given day. However, I don't breathe air on the west coast, but I eat leafy greens and milk grown there. As such, I am more interested in the cumulative amount of particles deposited.

Is there an analysis of these data that shows cumulative amount of particles? Seems like it would make a good science fair project...


The EPA monitors also pick up radiation from solar activity, although it is possible to compare different stations which are at the same elevation. To figure out how much of each isotope is in the atmosphere, you would need to know what the different gamma energy levels are from their database (which I can't find anywhere). So I'm currently going the other route and basing measurements off of beta detection as the main isotopes in the fuel either emit beta or alpha particles. If the ratios of isotope is known, the approximate amount of each (in grams), and the half-lifes; then the problem can be solved.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #27
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER CHERONO (07-20102011)
22:00 PM RET March 21 2011
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Cherono (997 hPa) located at 24.3S 57.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
Only in the southern semi circle between 60-130 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 220 NM in southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 25.2S 58.2E - 35 knots (Depression SubTropicale)
24 HRS: 26.5S 58.3E - 30 knots (Depression SubTropicale)
48 HRS: 28.9S 61.0E - 25 knots (Depression Extratropical)
72 HRS: 28.8S 64.8E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Convection remains fluctuating and mainly confined in the southern part of the system that is still undergoing a north to northwesterly wind shear generated by an upper level trough existing very close in the west of the system. Low level circulation center is more or less visible related to blow up of convection ASCAT swath 0523z confirms the very asymmetric winds structure with stronger winds in the southern semi-circle due to gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Mentioned speed is computed over the last 3 hours intervals. After a regular west southwestward motion, the system has began recurving southeastward and is expected to track eastward at lead time 24-36 hours. Within the next hours, the system should be phased with the approaching upper level trough. Ex-Cherono should therefore evolve to a subtropical hybrid structure. Refer to GFS phasis diagram.

Surface winds will remain strong due to gradient effect in the southern part of the system until Tuesday evening. On an after Wednesday, system should begin an extratropical transition and progressively fill in the westerly mid-latitude circulation.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Afternoon all.

Quoting Guysgal:
Great article on WU in the NYT this am Link

I hope this ia a live link!


Wow... playing with the big boys....

"In the last six months, Weather Underground has averaged about 14 million unique visitors a month in the United States, while Weather.com attracted about 42 million, according to Quantcast, an online metrics company."

Thanks 4 the link, Guysgal. And welcome to the posting side....

“The thing you need to ask yourself when you see stations for a network is, how are these stations situated?” Mr. Robinson said. “There’s a lot of potential useful data being gathered, but buyer beware.”

This leads me to wonder, does Wunderground provide tutorials, maybe a blogging experience just for pple with weather stations?

[from that same article]
TOKYO (Reuters)- When the massive tsunami smacked into Fukushima Daiichi, the nuclear power plant was stacked high with more uranium than it was originally designed to hold and had repeatedly missed mandatory safety checks over the past decade.

The Fukushima plant that has spun into partial meltdown and spewed out plumes of radiation had become a growing depot for spent fuel in a way the American engineers who designed the reactors 50 years earlier had never envisioned, according to company documents and outside experts Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all.



Wow... playing with the big boys....

"In the last six months, Weather Underground has averaged about 14 million unique visitors a month in the United States, while Weather.com attracted about 42 million, according to Quantcast, an online metrics company."

Thanks 4 the link, Guysgal. And welcome to the posting side....



I have noticed expanded advertising lately too. This morning as I was reading my news a banner across the bottom of the page was directing me to WU. I lurked on the site for years before deciding to become a member. To be honest, the horrible things that Record Season said prompted me to sign up. I was going to let him have it but thought it better to just let it go.
Another issue is that owners like Mr. Bleier must buy their own stations, which cost from about $110 to over $1,400, and use spare time to maintain them, without pay.

Toby Skinner, Weather Underground’s marketing director, believes users are compensated for the expense.

“They get a lot of archiving, they get map graphing and charts,” Mr. Skinner said. “A lot of these people may have their own local Web sites, community Web sites, and we provide the link to them so we’re providing some exposure.”

But for the weather fans with stations, participation is often its own reward.


So true.... lol

Quoting QuiltingQueen:


I have noticed expanded advertising lately too. This morning as I was reading my news a banner across the bottom of the page was directing me to WU. I lurked on the site for years before deciding to become a member. To be honest, the horrible things that Record Season said prompted me to sign up. I was going to let him have it but thought it better to just let it go.
Welcome to the blog.... if u've been lurking, u know the bloodletting on here can get pretty.... well.... aggressive... lol. Nevertheless, I've not found a site where the combination of available wx information of different types, different blogging experiences, and personal data management is so well combined. Once the season starts, I rarely go through a 24-hr period without checking in; given my location in the Bahamas, the information in the tropical blog almost always has some direct or indirect impact on my life.

But yeah, u have to be careful not to get sucked into the various dramas going on.... lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
Welcome to the blog.... if u've been lurking, u know the bloodletting on here can get pretty.... well.... aggressive... lol. Nevertheless, I've not found a site where the combination of available wx information of different types, different blogging experiences, and personal data management is so well combined. Once the season starts, I rarely go through a 24-hr period without checking in; given my location in the Bahamas, the information in the tropical blog almost always has some direct or indirect impact on my life.

But yeah, u have to be careful not to get sucked into the various dramas going on.... lol


I found the blog days before Hurricane Katrina hit. My sister lived on the gulf coast and to this day I credit this blog for saving my sister's life. She did not intend to evacuate because her home survived Camille. Due to information found here, I convinced her to go.

I mostly checked in during hurricane season due to my location on the gulf coast of Florida, and my sister's location in Mississippi. I would also read the blog during extreme weather events such as the snow storms and tornado outbreaks. As soon as I heard about the Japanese earthquake I came here because I knew the analysis and up-to-date information would be far better than what I get at CNN.

I will try my best to stay out of the drama that goes on. I have seen my fair share in the past several years but now that I have the ability to comment and combat it I will have to try hard to keep my lips shut.
Quoting QuiltingQueen:


I found the blog days before Hurricane Katrina hit. My sister lived on the gulf coast and to this day I credit this blog for saving my sister's life. She did not intend to evacuate because her home survived Camille. Due to information found here, I convinced her to go.

I mostly checked in during hurricane season due to my location on the gulf coast of Florida, and my sister's location in Mississippi. I would also read the blog during extreme weather events such as the snow storms and tornado outbreaks. As soon as I heard about the Japanese earthquake I came here because I knew the analysis and up-to-date information would be far better than what I get at CNN.

I will try my best to stay out of the drama that goes on. I have seen my fair share in the past several years but now that I have the ability to comment and combat it I will have to try hard to keep my lips shut.


Glad to have you, Queen! While you're here, remember this definition:

Stress: The confusion created when one's mind overrides the body's basic desire to choke the living daylights out of some jerk who desperately deserves it.

There are some very deserving individuals here...
Quoting Floodman:


Glad to have you, Queen! While you're here, remember this definition:

Stress: The confusion created when one's mind overrides the body's basic desire to choke the living daylights out of some jerk who desperately deserves it.

There are some very deserving individuals here...


I just have to remind myself that I am too old to get excited about most things. It is not worth my time.
@QuiltingQueen

Unfortunately, there are a few here who are old enough to do better, but don't.....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all.



Wow... playing with the big boys....

"In the last six months, Weather Underground has averaged about 14 million unique visitors a month in the United States, while Weather.com attracted about 42 million, according to Quantcast, an online metrics company."

Thanks 4 the link, Guysgal. And welcome to the posting side....



If I really have a choice, I'll go for weather.gov before I hit weather.com (no ads on the .gov site)
@Baha:
Yep...present!
Quoting BahaHurican:
@QuiltingQueen

Unfortunately, there are a few here who are old enough to do better, but don't.....


Yes, so true. I am old but still find myself getting into trouble sometimes.
Quoting hcubed:


If I really have a choice, I'll go for weather.gov before I hit weather.com (no ads on the .gov site)
Yup, and read the discussion to get a clue if they are just guessing.;^)
Quoting Floodman:


Glad to have you, Queen! While you're here, remember this definition:

Stress: The confusion created when one's mind overrides the body's basic desire to choke the living daylights out of some jerk who desperately deserves it.

There are some very deserving individuals here...


......and Flood is one of them. LOL
I see how Japan has become 2nd hand news to the Gadafhi (whatver spelling)now. Pretty sad. I could care less about the damn middle east. Got radiation floating around on the globe and the sheep media wants to talk about meaningless crap about a bunch of yo yos that can't figure out what religion they are.
Euro~Thanks.. Some translation was lost in the cut & paste. Had to resort to Babelfish. Had I just walked away without checking it you would have subdued undue panic.


Grother~ Sometimes I'm just too impatient, or like the other day~ your not around. Don't know why but I can 1/2 read of several languages. Many times just enough to know it's something really pertains or good stuff.

Those animated plume tracker/models come from ZAMG. There's links embed if you click on the maps posted earlier. You could translate & post the other info they put out today about WMO Day. I think there is some ZAMG history in there too I'd like to see translated.
Quoting BahaHurican:
“The thing you need to ask yourself when you see stations for a network is, how are these stations situated?” Mr. Robinson said. “There’s a lot of potential useful data being gathered, but buyer beware.”

This leads me to wonder, does Wunderground provide tutorials, maybe a blogging experience just for pple with weather stations?

[from that same article]



If you add your Personal Weather Station to the WeatherUndergound Network you get free website membership, free data hosting, great graphs of your data & I can show you the weather in my North Garden in a sylish little constantly updating sticker (or a number of variation of)..


WeatherUnderground~ Our weather stations are in your backyard...

That bestcast that's discussed in that article~ A forecast for your weather station (or that one right down the street), an awesome feature you can't get anywhere else~ had alot to do with the new site design. Well that & making it faster. Considering how much WU has changed over the years, I was surprised by some of the backlash. I think people didn't realize it had a set release day & their input has been used since (& this continues) to improve & finish it.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I see how Japan has become 2nd hand news to the Gadafhi (whatver spelling)now. Pretty sad. I could care less about the damn middle east. Got radiation floating around on the globe and the sheep media wants to talk about meaningless crap about a bunch of yo yos that can't figure out what religion they are.


Its all about "Now" and though Japan was last week, Libya is "Now" news, as sad as that sounds. People start to change the channel if they get tired of the same ole same old news. I cant even watch it anymore, its like overload in my brain!
Another bonus was with an IPod or such you don't have to get up to look at your weather station display..
sorry pushed the wrong button
I think a lot of us are on sensory overload. With everything going on in the world, and the very slow drip, drip, drip of new updates, the talking heads are stretching for news to report. Glad I have a DVR.
Quoting QuiltingQueen:


Yes, so true. I am old but still find myself getting into trouble sometimes.



Queen, I suggest that you are not old. Have you met the blog's archaeological find, Grothar? He was writing history before anyone else thought about doing so. You may have seen some of his artwork in the "Modern Caves" stone tablets from the year 10,000 BC? They are now enshrined in The Museum of Ancient History? You would be hard pressed to find a better person, from any millennium he took part in.

Uh, no, Grothar. I did not start that rumor. Well, OK. Maybe I did but, Brute, of Caesar fame, gave me the suggestion. ........ wait for it
Quoting Skyepony:



If you add your Personal Weather Station to the WeatherUndergound Network you get free website membership, free data hosting, great graphs of your data & I can show you the weather in my North Garden in a sylish little constantly updating sticker (or a number of variation of)..


WeatherUnderground~ Our weather stations are in your backyard...

That bestcast that's discussed in that article~ A forecast for your weather station (or that one right down the street), an awesome feature you can't get anywhere else~ had alot to do with the new site design. Well that & making it faster. Considering how much WU has changed over the years, I was surprised by some of the backlash. I think people didn't realize it had a set release day & their input has been used since (& this continues) to improve & finish it.


What? All this time I thought you were from Australia. I never realized that Florida captured the city. When did this happen?
Simply to boast the ECMWF's seasonal forecast accuracy, lets look at the ECMWF 6-month lead forecast for the Nino 3.4 region from last August projected to February first. The blue line represents the observed conditions while red lines are the individual ensemble members. As you can see what was actually observed matched very closely to the mean of the ensembles members if we were to draw a trendline based on the individual members:




Now, I looked at the ECMWF seasonal forecast from the past 3 months up until now and it seems to be trying to warm things up a little faster than what we are observing so if we look at the latest ECMWF seasonal forecast and take the right hand side (cooler side) of the ensemble members and take the mean then that could very well be what we would be looking at for this upcoming hurricane season.

ECMWF latest seasonal prediction forecast for the Nino 3.4 region:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Queen, I suggest that you are not old. Have you met the blog's archaeological find, Grothar? He was writing history before anyone else thought about doing so. You may have seen some of his artwork in the "Modern Caves" stone tablets from the year 10,000 BC? They are now enshrined in The Museum of Ancient History? You would be hard pressed to find a better person, from any millennium he took part in.

Uh, no, Grothar. I did not start that rumor. Well, OK. Maybe I did but, Brute, of Caesar fame, gave me the suggestion. ........ wait for it


Figures Brute would be a friend of yours. LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Figures Brute would be a friend of yours. LOL


I never said Brute was a friend. He said this to me in passing. He said he was in hurry to an important meeting. Who knew?
Quoting Skyepony:



If you add your Personal Weather Station to the WeatherUndergound Network you get free website membership, free data hosting, great graphs of your data & I can show you the weather in my North Garden in a sylish little constantly updating sticker (or a number of variation of)..


WeatherUnderground~ Our weather stations are in your backyard...

That bestcast that's discussed in that article~ A forecast for your weather station (or that one right down the street), an awesome feature you can't get anywhere else~ had alot to do with the new site design. Well that & making it faster. Considering how much WU has changed over the years, I was surprised by some of the backlash. I think people didn't realize it had a set release day & their input has been used since (& this continues) to improve & finish it.
ONe of the things I noticed right away with the city pages is that local forecast. Considering that there's a lot less feedback from local sources here, the quality of the forecast is usually pretty darn good. I agree that the changes I've seen since 2005 have been almost completely for the better. One thing we don't give much credit for is the self-monitoring system WU uses in its blogs. I think it's better than what a lot of other sites use.
Quoting Drakoen:
Simply to boast the ECMWF's seasonal forecast accuracy, lets look at the ECMWF 6-month lead forecast for the Nino 3.4 region from last August projected to February first. The blue line represents the observed conditions while red lines are the individual ensemble members. As you can see what was actually observed matched very closely to the mean of the ensembles members if we were to draw a trendline based on the individual members:




Now, I looked at the ECMWF seasonal forecast from the past 3 months up until now and it seems to be trying to warm things up a little faster than what we are observing so if we look at the latest ECMWF seasonal forecast and take the right hand side (cooler side) of the ensemble members and take the mean then that could very well be what we would be looking at for this upcoming hurricane season.

ECMWF latest seasonal prediction forecast for the Nino 3.4 region:
So suggesting no escape from la nina is likely???
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I never said Brute was a friend. He said this to me in passing. He said he was in hurry to an important meeting. Who knew?


LOL! Gives a new meaning to the phrase "Three Sheets to the Wind, eh?
Quoting Skyepony:
Euro~Thanks.. Some translation was lost in the cut & paste. Had to resort to Babelfish. Had I just walked away without checking it you would have subdued undue panic.


Grother~ Sometimes I'm just too impatient, or like the other day~ your not around. Don't know why but I can 1/2 read of several languages. Many times just enough to know it's something really pertains or good stuff.

Those animated plume tracker/models come from ZAMG. There's links embed if you click on the maps posted earlier. You could translate & post the other info they put out today about WMO Day. I think there is some ZAMG history in there too I'd like to see translated.


Just got back and saw this. A complete transaltion is on your WU mail on this article (without the mistakes from Google)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think a lot of us are on sensory overload. With everything going on in the world, and the very slow drip, drip, drip of new updates, the talking heads are stretching for news to report. Glad I have a DVR.


Geoff, don't know if you saw this earlier. Seems trivial compared to what is going on the world, but it is really getting serious by us. Looks like you neck of the woods is having the same thing.

Quoting Grothar:


LOL! Gives a new meaning to the phrase "Three Sheets to the Wind, eh?


Yes. LOL. We also now know where the phrase "Watch you back" probably originated.
Gadhafi, Gaddafi, Qaddafi, Khadafy, or Khadafi?

If you use the Associated Press as your standard-bearer you should use the spelling Moammar Gadhafi.

The Washington Post is using Moammar Gaddafi as their preferred spelling.

The New York Times is using Muammar el-Qaddafi and even acknowledging his position in the military.

The Boston Globe is using Moammar Khadafy.

Agence France-Presse is using Moamer Khadafi when writing about the Libyan dictator.

Quoting Grothar:
Gadhafi, Gaddafi, Qaddafi, Khadafy, or Khadafi?

If you use the Associated Press as your standard-bearer you should use the spelling Moammar Gadhafi.

The Washington Post is using Moammar Gaddafi as their preferred spelling.

The New York Times is using Muammar el-Qaddafi and even acknowledging his position in the military.

The Boston Globe is using Moammar Khadafy.

Agence France-Presse is using Moamer Khadafi when writing about the Libyan dictator.




Well, his new name will probably be spelled by all the same way. Mud. That one is hard to spell wrong. Still, we may see the occasional spelling as, Mudd. Sometimes, life does get simpler?
Quoting Grothar:


Geoff, don't know if you saw this earlier. Seems trivial compared to what is going on the world, but it is really getting serious by us. Looks like you neck of the woods is having the same thing.



We received a good dousing early this morning. I believe as time goes on, things will even out. They usually do.
Quoting Grothar:
Gadhafi, Gaddafi, Qaddafi, Khadafy, or Khadafi?

If you use the Associated Press as your standard-bearer you should use the spelling Moammar Gadhafi.

The Washington Post is using Moammar Gaddafi as their preferred spelling.

The New York Times is using Muammar el-Qaddafi and even acknowledging his position in the military.

The Boston Globe is using Moammar Khadafy.

Agence France-Presse is using Moamer Khadafi when writing about the Libyan dictator.




I have heard a couple of alias names on you too........LOL
Quoting BahaHurican:
So suggesting no escape from la nina is likely???


That is a real possibility. A weak La-Nina. I looked at the CFS and GloSea model which takes us into neutral with a cool bias with the given rate of warming. An interesting thing to note is that the GloSea underestimated the rate of warming in its 3-month lead forecast. If we consider the Glosea to be an underestimation and the ECMWF members to be an overestimation then perhaps need to take the mean of the total ECMWF members and the Glosea members which I would see as a neutral with a slight warm biased which I think is what we will be looking at this hurricane season.

The March 2011 IRI ENSO forecast models have the average among the all dynamic models right around neutral, so this season could be absolutely neutral.

Quoting TampaSpin:



I have heard a couple of alias names on you too........LOL


Tampa, those are not aliases. Those are former lives!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Well, his new name will probably be spelled by all the same way. Mud. That one is hard to spell wrong. Still, we may see the occasional spelling as, Mudd. Sometimes, life does get simpler?


As in Samuel Mudd?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


As in Samuel Mudd?




No, just Mudd.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Tampa, those are not aliases. Those are former lives!


Like heck, the boy is a legend. He has only had one life and is as old as mother earth!
Quoting Drakoen:


That is a real possibility. A weak La-Nina. I looked at the CFS and GloSea model which takes us into neutral with a cool bias with the given rate of warming. An interesting thing to note is that the GloSea underestimated the rate of warming in its 3-month lead forecast. If we consider the Glosea to be an underestimation and the ECMWF members to be an overestimation then perhaps need to take the mean of the total ECMWF members and the Glosea members which I would see as a neutral with a slight warm biased which I think is what we will be looking at this hurricane season.

The March 2011 IRI ENSO forecast models have the average among the all dynamic models right around neutral, so this season could be absolutely neutral.




What does a neutral season typically mean in terms of # of storms?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Like heck, the boy is a legend. He has only had one life and is as old as mother earth!



True. Very true, Tampa. I stand corrected.

Hey, Grothar. What is with all the aliases?
Quoting Drakoen:


That is a real possibility. A weak La-Nina. I looked at the CFS and GloSea model which takes us into neutral with a cool bias with the given rate of warming. An interesting thing to note is that the GloSea underestimated the rate of warming in its 3-month lead forecast. If we consider the Glosea to be an underestimation and the ECMWF members to be an overestimation then perhaps need to take the mean of the total ECMWF members and the Glosea members which I would see as a neutral with a slight warm biased which I think is what we will be looking at this hurricane season.

The March 2011 IRI ENSO forecast models have the average among the all dynamic models right around neutral, so this season could be absolutely neutral.




Nuetral could be rather bad as history shows. LaNina might come a little late for much protection this year for the ConUs
Here is a link about rescue teams running from the radiation as winds move onshore.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


As in Samuel Mudd?


He was cleared of all charges, (and so was I)
Quoting jitterboy:



What does a neutral season typically mean in terms of # of storms?


Neutral years tend to yield an above-average number storms.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


We received a good dousing early this morning. I believe as time goes on, things will even out. They usually do.


Always the optimist. Can't you be an alarmist just once and say we are drying up and no water will be available and get a good argument doing. You always have to play the nice guy.
Quoting leftlink:
Here is a link about rescue teams running from the radiation as winds move onshore.



Wow. Can these people not catch a break?
Quoting Grothar:


Always the optimist. Can't you be an alarmist just once and say we are drying up and no water will be available and get a good argument doing. You always have to play the nice guy.


My glass of water is always half full.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



True. Very true, Tampa. I stand corrected.

Hey, Grothar. What is with all the aliases?


Many Live, Many Masters.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


My glass of water is always half full.


And the other half is filled with what?
Quoting Grothar:


And the other half is filled with what?


Clamato.
Quoting Drakoen:


Neutral years tend to yield an above-average number storms.


Drak, any idea why the graph on the AO goes haywire at the end of March 2011. POST 115. Can't find an explanation. How much might that affect wind shear in the coming months, if any.
Quoting Grothar:


Always the optimist. Can't you be an alarmist just once and say we are drying up and no water will be available and get a good argument doing. You always have to play the nice guy.


Not really!! He gets in trouble on here about as much as myself! Just sayn..LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Drak, any idea why the graph on the AO goes haywire at the end of March 2011. POST 115. Can't find an explanation. How much might that affect wind shear in the coming months, if any.


Could you be more specific?


Figure 1. The number of hurricanes that made landfall in Florida each year between 1900 and 1998. El Niño years are indicated in red, neutral years are shown in green and La Niña years are indicated in blue.



Figure 2. The number of hurricanes that made landfall along the East Coast each year between 1900 and 1998. El Niño years are indicated in red, neutral years are shown in green and La Niña years are indicated in blue.

Quoting Drakoen:


Could you be more specific?


I will try. In this graph which shows the AO through March 2011, the end of it has red lines going all over the place. Does the AO affect the wind shear in the Atlantic? If so, would a positive AO indicated more or less shear in the Atlantic.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Not really!! He gets in trouble on here about as much as myself! Just sayn..LOL


Gee, I've never seen you get in trouble much, unless you count all of 2010. LOL
Drakoen, as much as I would like to believe ENSO models on a neutral conditions during Hurricane Season you cannot ignore the large build up of above normal anomalies below the surface in the Nino 3.4 region in recent weeks. Especially with the above normal anomalies quickly eroding the below normal amomalies from below & from west to east. I'm not saying were on the way to El Nino which would be a bit ambitious considering the extent of below normal anomalies remain in the equatorial Pacific and the SOI remains very high. Its just something I'd like to point out.

Quoting Drakoen:


That is a real possibility. A weak La-Nina. I looked at the CFS and GloSea model which takes us into neutral with a cool bias with the given rate of warming. An interesting thing to note is that the GloSea underestimated the rate of warming in its 3-month lead forecast. If we consider the Glosea to be an underestimation and the ECMWF members to be an overestimation then perhaps need to take the mean of the total ECMWF members and the Glosea members which I would see as a neutral with a slight warm biased which I think is what we will be looking at this hurricane season.

The March 2011 IRI ENSO forecast models have the average among the all dynamic models right around neutral, so this season could be absolutely neutral.

Hmmm.... neutral with possible cold bias is worst case scenario landfall-wise, IIRC.... Also supports the forecasts of above-average. Someone was also posting windshear trend analysis the other day implying below average windshear forecasts for the early part of the season....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


My glass of water is always half full.
What, do u never drink it all at one time?
CFS has jumped to warm-biased neutral or weak El Nino.

Quoting Grothar:


I will try. In this graph which shows the AO through March 2011, the end of it has red lines going all over the place. Does the AO affect the wind shear in the Atlantic? If so, would a positive AO indicated more or less shear in the Atlantic.



Less. Notice what happened to the wind shear in mid-January when the AO reversed from negative to positive. It has been averaging well below normal since then.

Notice the Caribbean shear coming up in recent weeks although the AO has still been positive. This may be indicative of the subtropical jet strengthening as convection increases slowly in the central/eastern equatorial Pacific as nino SSTs rise.



The Australian BOM's model has also trended warmer and is now calling for weak El Nino conditions by the A-S-O period. Too early to speculate how this would effect the latter part of Hurricane Season.

Levi, that makes me remember 2006, where the forecasted shift to el nino was not believed, resulting in massive over-forecasting of NS.... I don't think we're going to see as strong a shift this year, based on most of what I've seen. I'm thinking the warm anomalies in post 133 are more likely to bring us to neutral, rather than substantially into el nino territory.
Quoting Grothar:


I will try. In this graph which shows the AO through March 2011, the end of it has red lines going all over the place. Does the AO affect the wind shear in the Atlantic? If so, would a positive AO indicated more or less shear in the Atlantic.



As far as modeling is concerned, each red line is an individual ensemble member and each member is set with sightly slightly different conditions. As we go out in time and the error increases we can see a deviation among the ensemble members. The graph above shows a general trend of the NAO going upwards. A negative NAO means a stronger than normal subtropical high which increases the low level winds. With wind shear we are concerned about the the winds at 850mb and 200mb and the difference between them. Strong wind speeds at 850mb as a result of a positive NAO is generally not favored. The strong unidirectional winds make it difficult for tropical waves to get a circulation going.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Levi, that makes me remember 2006, where the forecasted shift to el nino was not believed, resulting in massive over-forecasting of NS.... I don't think we're going to see as strong a shift this year, based on most of what I've seen. I'm thinking the warm anomalies in post 133 are more likely to bring us to neutral, rather than substantially into el nino territory.


I would agree. 2006 was different because it was in a warm PDO period, but we're now in a cold PDO period, making it more difficult for El Ninos to develop and last, especially in a full reversal out of a strong La Nina.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Levi, that makes me remember 2006, where the forecasted shift to el nino was not believed, resulting in massive over-forecasting of NS.... I don't think we're going to see as strong a shift this year, based on most of what I've seen. I'm thinking the warm anomalies in post 133 are more likely to bring us to neutral, rather than substantially into el nino territory.


If the SOI remains high that could very well be the case.
Quoting Drakoen:


As far as modeling is concerned, each red line is an individual ensemble member and each member is set with sightly slightly different conditions. As we go out in time and the error increases we can see a deviation among the ensemble members. The graph above shows a general trend of the NAO going upwards. A negative NAO means a stronger than normal subtropical high which increases the low level winds. With wind shear we are concerned about the the winds at 850mb and 200mb and the difference between them. Strong wind speeds at 850mb as a result of a positive NAO is generally not favored. The strong unidirectional winds make it difficult for tropical waves to get a circulation going.


This is true, though 200mb winds generally show easterly anomalies as well, and the overall correlation is for less shear. Also, in the actual hurricane season, AO/NAO signals are more fuzzy, meaning that a positive or negative value can mean many different things pattern-wise. However, in general, a positive NAO during the summer is actually favorable overall if the AMO is warm, because the stronger trade winds are pulled north of the deep tropics, allowing fairly light winds and increased cyclonic vorticity due to the easterlies to the north.
The zonal pattern we have been seeing across the US recently is more reminiscent of an El Nino pattern instead of La Nina.
Quoting Drakoen:


As far as modeling is concerned, each red line is an individual ensemble member and each member is set with sightly slightly different conditions. As we go out in time and the error increases we can see a deviation among the ensemble members. The graph above shows a general trend of the NAO going upwards. A negative NAO means a stronger than normal subtropical high which increases the low level winds. With wind shear we are concerned about the the winds at 850mb and 200mb and the difference between them. Strong wind speeds at 850mb as a result of a positive NAO is generally not favored. The strong unidirectional winds make it difficult for tropical waves to get a circulation going.


Thanks for the explanation, Drak. I know this has come up before, but I can't always remember which affects what.
It can get messy in the summer because everything pulls north, and in positive NAO summers you can have four main belts of 200mb wind anomalies. Again, more depends on the actual pattern than the NAO numerical value, as it can represent many different things in the summer season.

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
The zonal pattern we have been seeing across the US recently is more reminiscent of an El Nino pattern instead of La Nina.


U.S. temperatures so far in March are very La Nina-ish. It was more El Nino-like during the heart of the winter when it was cold in the eastern US.

Quoting Drakoen:


That is a real possibility. A weak La-Nina. I looked at the CFS and GloSea model which takes us into neutral with a cool bias with the given rate of warming. An interesting thing to note is that the GloSea underestimated the rate of warming in its 3-month lead forecast. If we consider the Glosea to be an underestimation and the ECMWF members to be an overestimation then perhaps need to take the mean of the total ECMWF members and the Glosea members which I would see as a neutral with a slight warm biased which I think is what we will be looking at this hurricane season.

The March 2011 IRI ENSO forecast models have the average among the all dynamic models right around neutral, so this season could be absolutely neutral.



The very close agreement of the dynamical and statistical models strengthens the case for neutral conditions, with MJJ as the first 3-month period clearly above -0.5. We may be looking at neutral conditions for most or all of the season.

This "technical report" from 2002 has some interesting conclusions regarding regional disposition of LANDFALLING hurricanes under El Nino/La Nina/neutral conditions. I don't see it cited much. Reading the conclusions is a good way to spend 10 minutes, although the entire paper is interesting to my non-expert eyes:

FSU COPS landfalling hurricanes and ENSO

Expert commentary anyone?
Quoting Levi32:


U.S. temperatures so far in March are very La Nina-ish. It was more El Nino-like during the heart of the winter when it was cold in the eastern US.



500mb also looks La Nina-ish.

Quoting Levi32:


Less. Notice what happened to the wind shear in mid-January when the AO reversed from negative to positive. It has been averaging well below normal since then.

Notice the Caribbean shear coming up in recent weeks although the AO has still been positive. This may be indicative of the subtropical jet strengthening as convection increases slowly in the central/eastern equatorial Pacific as nino SSTs rise.





That has more to do with the dominance of the 200mb anticyclone in the subtropical Atlantic rather than a correlation between the NAO and wind shear, which Grothar's question explicitly stated.
This could end up being more important than previously thought. Data is from Link and Link (This is from a 100% MOX core, reactor #3 was most likely around 14%):



148. WatchingThisOne 6:50 PM EDT on March 21, 2011

ONe thing I realize by looking at the background information for this report is that we've made some strides in the understanding of influences on TC steering since it was written.

"Elsner et al. (2000) found that the Gulf Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during a relaxed NAO while the East Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during an excited NAO. In this work, the years of East Coast landfalls and Florida landfalls are also classified according to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase"; for relaxed I'm reading weak /negative, and for excited I'm reading strong /positive.

"What caused the smoke to billow first from Unit 3 at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant and later from Unit 2 is under investigation, nuclear safety agency officials said."

errrm... seawater? Loaded with algae, bacteria, plankton, and lots of other organics. Begins smoking after reaching 160to180degreesCelsius; before the reactor becomes hot enough to set the organics on fire; well before the pile becomes hot enough that water-Zircaloy4 oxidation becomes a serious problem, let alone zirconium-burning or fuel-rod meltdown.

Probably venting the reactors at noticeably less than the 374degreesCelcius when water becomes supercritical, can no longer exist as a liquid. Can't imagine them holding up to 218atmospheres when a BoilingWaterReactor's designed operating pressure is only 32-33atmospheres.
This would suggest that there is a dominant flow pattern during neutral years that tends to steer hurricanes toward Florida.

This almost by definition means that The Bahamas is more likely to be hit during neutral years as well. Looking at the maps of landfalling storms they include, only one hurricane makes landfall in The Bahamas during La Nina years [incidentally, it was one with a track remarkably similar to last year's Tomas]. The maps also suggest that the Canadian seaboard is more at risk of a direct hit [as opposed to storms which arrive in Canada overland] during a la nina year than a neutral year.

All in all it makes interesting reading....
Quoting alfabob:
This could end up being more important than previously thought. Data is from Link and Link:





It could indeed.

BTW, it's been a pleasure to watch you and Xyrus going back and forth on this without making it personal. It sets a good example for the rest of us.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
US sees encouraging signs in Haiti elections


are you still online
Quoting BahaHurican:
148. WatchingThisOne 6:50 PM EDT on March 21, 2011

ONe thing I realize by looking at the background information for this report is that we've made some strides in the understanding of influences on TC steering since it was written.

"Elsner et al. (2000) found that the Gulf Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during a relaxed NAO while the East Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during an excited NAO. In this work, the years of East Coast landfalls and Florida landfalls are also classified according to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase"; for relaxed I'm reading weak /negative, and for excited I'm reading strong /positive.



I'm not surprised to hear it's not as simple as it seems. I just found the conclusions interesting, and have been keeping them in the back of my mind as seasons develop. Last year was a complete miss.

WTO
Yes Tim.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yes Tim.


Hope you got the same cell.......just sent you a text
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


It could indeed.

BTW, it's been a pleasure to watch you and Xyrus going back and forth on this without making it personal. It sets a good example for the rest of us.


Best way to solve problems, although he may be somewhat right about the core not being loaded 100% with MOX (people are saying it's 8% MOX, but who really knows). It seems like they were planning on switching over in 2000, and even got the shipment; but ended up not using it (supposedly) Link. On the other hand, this website indicates that they started using MOX in September 2010 in reactor 3. So they may have been secretly using MOX for a while now, and may also have a lot stored.
I hope this is not true:


SECRET SHIPMENT OF NUCLEAR BOMB MATERIAL FROM EUROPE TO JAPAN in 2010

"Last fall, two ships carrying a secret cargo of dangerous, nuclear weapons-usable plutonium fuel left ports in Britain and France and sail around the globe to Japan. On board will be fuel containing more plutonium than in the entire Indian and Pakistani nuclear weapons program.

The two British flagged vessels, the Pacific Teal and the Pacific Pintail, will leave Barrow in Britain and Cherbourg in France carrying the first commercial shipment to Japan of mixed-oxide (MOX) reactor fuel, made from plutonium and uranium. An estimated 446 kilograms of plutonium is contained in the 40 nuclear fuel elements – enough fissile material to construct 60 nuclear bombs.

The first plant to use MOX is scheduled to be Fukushima 1 plant. The date has been set to August 22nd, 2010.

The plutonium (MOX) fuel shipment is being conducted for the Japanese electrical utilities Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)."
Let us remember the people in Japan during this difficult time for them. They have suffered three disasters: earthquake, tsunami, and radiation. Please click on my blog for an update on how we can all help. Any idea to raise funds is a great one.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


I'm not surprised to hear it's not as simple as it seems. I just found the conclusions interesting, and have been keeping them in the back of my mind as seasons develop. Last year was a complete miss.

WTO
Actually I don't agree completely with that. Two storms hit the Canadian seaboard last year, 1 as a hurricane, consistent with what I noticed in their track maps. The rest of the landfall activity was concentrated along the western side of the CAR and GoM, which is not atypical of storm tracks during the first year of a La Nina. What was unexpected was the weakness of storms. I think a lot of us equated many storms with powerful storms, which was just not the case. I'd really like to see someone approach the influence of the PDO on storm formation.

Again, neutral years tend to favor increased landfall across FL and The Bahamas. Even if we stay in the La Nina phase, landfall risks along the US coast increase during the second year of a multi-year la nina, IIRC.... What's going to be equally interesting is whether we get stronger systems this year....
Quoting BahaHurican:
148. WatchingThisOne 6:50 PM EDT on March 21, 2011

ONe thing I realize by looking at the background information for this report is that we've made some strides in the understanding of influences on TC steering since it was written.

"Elsner et al. (2000) found that the Gulf Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during a relaxed NAO while the East Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during an excited NAO. In this work, the years of East Coast landfalls and Florida landfalls are also classified according to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase"; for relaxed I'm reading weak /negative, and for excited I'm reading strong /positive.


So are we in a relaxed or more exciting NAO. Don't keep track on that...
Quoting Drakoen:


That has more to do with the dominance of the 200mb anticyclone in the subtropical Atlantic rather than a correlation between the NAO and wind shear, which Grothar's question explicitly stated.


The stronger subtropical high is directly related to the NAO in the winter.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

So are we in a relaxed or more exciting NAO. Don't keep track on that...


Right now the NAO is positive, or "excited."

Quoting TampaSpin:


Hope you got the same cell.......just sent you a text


You have mail.
Quoting alfabob:


Best way to solve problems, although he may be somewhat right about the core not being loaded 100% with MOX (people are saying it's 8% MOX, but who really knows). It seems like they were planning on switching over in 2000, and even got the shipment; but ended up not using it (supposedly) Link. On the other hand, this website indicates that they started using MOX in September 2010 in reactor 3; and it claims MOX was also scheduled to be used in August 2010 for the #1 reactor. So they may have been secretly using MOX for a while now, and may also have a lot stored.


My understanding is that running MOX in a reactor like this requires modifications to the reactor. That understanding may not be correct. But if it is, it implies that reactor 3 is either running on MOX or not. Why make a series of gradual modifications?

If we ever see the profile of the isotopes being released, we will be in a position to better understand what is happening.

Edit: then again, perhaps 8% is the limit above which you cannot safely go without reactor modifications.
Quoting Levi32:


Right now the NAO is positive, or "excited."

So the models predict it will become more relaxed in the coming weeks/months. If this is wrong i'm sorry, I don't know much about this topic when it comes to the tropics... Lol. i do have other good qualities in storm tracking, but this isn't one of them...
171. flsky
Florida water table rose after Japanese quake.
Link
172. flsky
Spoke to a number of students from Haiti visiting Embry Riddle Univ. yesterday who said that quake recovery is incredibly slow.

Quoting TampaSpin:


are you still online
Quoting Levi32:


The stronger subtropical high is directly related to the NAO in the winter.


So with that statement you are saying that the subtropical high (Azores-Bermuda high) has presence at 200mb in the?
@ Dean07... one of the nicer things about blogging this time of year is u have time to read up on this stuff and ask questions while the blog is not whizzing along at the speed of sound.... easier to get feedback.

So the next question is, what does that relaxed phase of the NAO mean for wind shear?
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


My understanding is that running MOX in a reactor like this requires modifications to the reactor. That understanding may not be correct. But if it is, it implies that reactor 3 is either running on MOX or not. Why make a series of gradual modifications?

If we ever see the profile of the isotopes being released, we will be in a position to better understand what is happening.


I'm hoping that the rate of beta decay can be used to find out exactly the amount of plutonium (and other isotopes) that were used in the fuel. At the beginning both types are similar but due to the different amount of each isotope, one will have a quicker decaying CPM rate. But this would probably take years until the data is available.

According to the link I posted, the amount of plutonium shipped must be enriched. The mass calculations come out to be about 14% of a fully loaded core (instead of 8%).
Just warning you guys, if you don't have professional grade internet protection, you may have gotten Malware from accessing the blogs, apparently the link to these blogs had Malware on it earlier, because my system notified me of it and blocked it. Its not on here anymore though.

I just thought I'd give everyone a heads up on that. Malware destroyed my last computer, it even downloaded tons of porn repeatedly before the computer crashed. I was very upset, Malware sucks.

Quoting Jedkins01:
Just warning you guys, if you don't have professional grade internet protection, you may have gotten Malware from accessing the blogs, apparently the link to these blogs had Malware on it earlier, because my system notified me of it and blocked it. Its not on here anymore though.

I just thought I'd give everyone a heads up on that. Malware destroyed my last computer, it even downloaded tons of porn repeatedly before the computer crashed. I was very upset, Malware sucks.



Recently I had my email hacked and it sent everyone in my address book an email telling them to go to a pill clinic and get free medicines.
Quoting Drakoen:


So with that statement you are saying that the subtropical high (Azores-Bermuda high) has presence at 200mb in the?


It doesn't have a circulation but that doesn't mean there can't be height rises/falls associated with the longwave pattern.

If we look at the 30 day 850mb wind speeds over the Tropical Atlantic they didn't reflect a typical positive NAO which would have made an anomalous increase in the 850mb winds.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Just warning you guys, if you don't have professional grade internet protection, you may have gotten Malware from accessing the blogs, apparently the link to these blogs had Malware on it earlier, because my system notified me of it and blocked it. Its not on here anymore though.

I just thought I'd give everyone a heads up on that. Malware destroyed my last computer, it even downloaded tons of porn repeatedly before the computer crashed. I was very upset, Malware sucks.



Time to reinstall the armor again.. Link.
I was very popular among my friends with arthritis for several days until they realized it was not from me.
Quoting Drakoen:
If we look at the 30 day 850mb wind speeds over the Tropical Atlantic they didn't reflect a typical positive NAO which would have made an anomalous increase in the 850mb winds.


Yeah because the NAO so far this March has exhibited its tripole signature instead of a dipole one. It has many faces, which I keep stressing. The numerical value of the AO/NAO does far from telling the whole story, and is only a guide to how the polar annular mode is evolving overall.



Perhaps a more accurate way for me to state it is that the positive NAO can both reduce or increase vertical wind shear in different situations, though in the winter-time I suspect it reduces it more often than it increases it. Not that it matters much when it's the winter.

Quoting Levi32:


Yeah because the NAO so far this March has exhibited its tripole signature instead of a dipole one. It has many faces, which I keep stressing. The numerical value of the AO/NAO does far from telling the whole story, and is only a guide to how the polar annular mode is evolving overall.



Perhaps a more accurate way of stating it is that the positive NAO can both reduce or increase vertical wind shear in different situations, though in the winter-time I suspect it reduces it more often than it increases it. Not that it matters much when it's the winter.



Exactly
Quoting alfabob:


Time to reinstall the armor again.. Link.


I just sprayed my computer with ArmorAll. Waiting to see how it works. ;)
A question for Levi or Drakoen. We are in March,but by the analysis that you have made so far,in your best estimation,how do you see the 2011 Atlantic season in terms of how active it may be in the numbers,keeping in mind what is going on in the ENSO factor?
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


It could indeed.

BTW, it's been a pleasure to watch you and Xyrus going back and forth on this without making it personal. It sets a good example for the rest of us.


I've read back a bit, and am pleasantly surprised. Far cry from how the blog has been for quite a while now. And informative too. Nice!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A question for Levi or Drakoen. We are in March,but by the analysis that you have made so far,in your best estimation,how do you see the 2011 Atlantic season in terms of how active it may be in the numbers,keeping in mind what is going on in the ENSO factor?


Less than last year, which is typical of the season following a moderate-strong La Nina year. I am currently thinking more along the lines of 14-16 storms are likely.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Just warning you guys, if you don't have professional grade internet protection, you may have gotten Malware from accessing the blogs, apparently the link to these blogs had Malware on it earlier, because my system notified me of it and blocked it. Its not on here anymore though.

I just thought I'd give everyone a heads up on that. Malware destroyed my last computer, it even downloaded tons of porn repeatedly before the computer crashed. I was very upset, Malware sucks.



That just scares people. Do you have the name of the malware? Are you using ad blocking, cookie blocking or similar software? How about your HOSTS file.

Sometimes it's best not to say anything, particularly if you can't even name the malware.

You might *ask* if anyone else is experiencing the problem, but it is irresponsible to say "you might have a problem" if you don't have PROFESSIONAL GRADE protection. Huh?
Quoting Jedkins01:
Just warning you guys, if you don't have professional grade internet protection, you may have gotten Malware from accessing the blogs, apparently the link to these blogs had Malware on it earlier, because my system notified me of it and blocked it. Its not on here anymore though.

I just thought I'd give everyone a heads up on that. Malware destroyed my last computer, it even downloaded tons of porn repeatedly before the computer crashed. I was very upset, Malware sucks.



If you have not, please check your security log and provide the information from the event via a ticket to the link below. I would be interested in seeing the log info also. They have incorporated the link notification that pops up now when clicking any of the embedded links from prior events. Thnx

http://wuhelp.wunderground.com/index.php?_m=ticke ts&_a=submit
There was also a link posted on the previous blog from Xyrus which is informative Link. It is from the same author which I did the simulation off of, but he published this blog before #3 exploded.

"One particular concern with Unit 3 is the presence of mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel in the core. MOX is a mixture of plutonium and uranium oxides. In September 2010, 32 fuel assemblies containing MOX fuel were loaded into this reactor. This is about 6% of the core."

Except from using the numbers in Edwin Lyman's paper and the link about the amount of plutonium shipped, his estimate of 6% is wrong.

"Because of this, the number of latent cancer fatalities resulting from an accident could increase by as much as a factor of five for a full core of MOX fuel compared to the same accident with no MOX. Fortunately, as noted above, the fraction of the fuel in this reactor that is MOX is small. Even so, I would estimate this could cause a roughly 10% increase in latent cancer fatalities if there were a severe accident with core melt and containment breach, which has not happened at this point and hopefully will not."

So the actual increased latent cancer fatalities may be as high as 17.5%, but that's assuming they weren't secretly using the stuff since 2000; considering how a lot of their regulatory and reporting aspects have completely failed.
Quoting Levi32:


Less than last year, which is typical of the season following a moderate-strong La Nina year. I am currently thinking more along the lines of 14-16 storms are likely.
I agree with this. What I'm thinking is that last year a lot of the "early" predictions re. numbers [which were mostly in the 17 - 21 range] weren't that far off the actual total. So I guess a lot depends on how accurate our ENSO forecast is, and also how well we interpret it and other factors...
I'm also thinking about the WPAC performance last year, which was WAY below expectation. Again, I'm wondering data exists which would allow us to do some comparative analysis of storm activity during PDO cool phase...
Hmmm.... let's see....

Quoting Levi32:


Yeah because the NAO so far this March has exhibited its tripole signature instead of a dipole one. It has many faces, which I keep stressing. The numerical value of the AO/NAO does far from telling the whole story, and is only a guide to how the polar annular mode is evolving overall.



Perhaps a more accurate way for me to state it is that the positive NAO can both reduce or increase vertical wind shear in different situations, though in the winter-time I suspect it reduces it more often than it increases it. Not that it matters much when it's the winter.



Also I just realized. Why did you pick March instead of February to match the previous graph of the 200mb geopotential heights? I'll answer that for you. The tripole was clearly not as defined or even there. Also the month of February actually reflected more of a La Nina-like pattern in contrast to what was observed in December and January of the 500mb geopotential height anomalies. Our concern and the primary questions concern, asked by Grothar, is not of these months but of the months of hurricane season. Simply stating a positive NAO results in less shear is careless and other factors need to be taken into consideration.
Quoting Levi32:


Less than last year, which is typical of the season following a moderate-strong La Nina year. I am currently thinking more along the lines of 14-16 storms are likely.


I agree with this
Quoting Levi32:


Less than last year, which is typical of the season following a moderate-strong La Nina year. I am currently thinking more along the lines of 14-16 storms are likely.
Yeahhhh remember 2005.Mmmmmm.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I agree with this. What I'm thinking is that last year a lot of the "early" predictions re. numbers [which were mostly in the 17 - 21 range] weren't that far off the actual total. So I guess a lot depends on how accurate our ENSO forecast is, and also how well we interpret it and other factors...


Anyone have links for last years monthly shear? I'm thinking ENSO will be going neutral around mid-April to June, then heading back to a moderate la nina. With the amount of upwelling that has been occurring, I don't think it would even be possible to get a strong el nino signal.
Quoting Drakoen:


Also I just realized. Why did you pick March instead of February to match the previous graph of the 200mb geopotential heights? I'll answer that for you. The tripole was clearly not as defined or even there. Also the month of February actually reflected more of a La Nina-like pattern in contrast to what was observed in December and January of the 500mb geopotential height anomalies. Our concern and the primary questions concern, asked by Grothar, is not of these months but of the months of hurricane season. Simply stating a positive NAO results in less shear is careless and other factors need to be taken into consideration.


That was in response to your quoted post about recent 850mb wind activity.

I understand about Grothar's question. I was making a point that the positive NAO does not always increase wind shear, both during the hurricane season and the winter. My initial answer of "less" was insufficient, as I was talking about the winter and did not mention the hurricane season. That's my bad.
Kyodo: Radiation 1,600 times normal level 20km from Fukushima nuke plant.

Ouch.
Quoting Levi32:


That was in response to your quoted post about recent 850mb wind activity.

I understand about Grothar's question. I was making a point that the positive NAO does not always increase wind shear, both during the hurricane season and the winter.


I can go back further if you want and the result is the same.

Also why avoid the fact that the tripole wasn't defined February? I've seen you cover winter correlation but not hurricane season correlation.

It is known that La Nina increases the pressure in the upper atmosphere of the subtropical Atlantic and strengthens the Tropical Easterly Jet but whether or not these are a function of the NAO, I have not seen explicitly stated.
Between the T-depth anomalies, the assorted arrangement of cold & warm water & the NASA GMAO enso model I'm leaning somewhere between warm Neutral & moderate El Nino by the end of season. Enso seems to control where the Bermuda high lays..way farther west for stronger La Nina to way father east for strong el nino. Keep in mind the few month delay from the current conditions to affect the atmosphere that way. Tripping into & near on through Neutral for early season..would give us more neutral atmospheric conditions conditions for later season. That all comes to me as early season being more a problem for Mexico/TX, maybe Caribbean with a more northern & eastward trend as it progresses. I'm more concerned here in FL than I was this time last year, when it looked like a mod la nina on the way.

Over all ACE is still running really low. So far this year the S Hem wasn't terribly active, west of India was slow. WPAC usually has something & it was pretty quiet with waves not really pulling it together at all. The waves have been impressive once this side of Africa. Seeing a lot of spin for this time of year. May be like last where Atlantic makes up some of this deficit. I don't think ENSO has a huge play on numbers..maybe sunspots. 15 or more sounds good.

WatchingThisOne Wrote: "Do you have the name of the malware?"

I use avast antivirus protection and this is the message I received:

Infection: HTML:Script-inf
Object:…:www.wunderground/cgi-bin/findweather/g etForecast?

Complete Update





Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm also thinking about the WPAC performance last year, which was WAY below expectation. Again, I'm wondering data exists which would allow us to do some comparative analysis of storm activity during PDO cool phase...


Here's a graph I made of previous Atlantic hurricane seasons. The data was divided into 3 separate categories of sustained winds (6 hour reports). This should give a general idea of the shear environments by comparing the relative amplitude of each category for a single year (and other cycles). *Also this is before any changes were made to the 2010 data, so the numbers could change a little for last year.

ATLANTIC SEASON NUMBER OUTLOOK for 2011
TOTAL STORMS 17 TO 19
TOTAL HURRICANES 9 TO 11
TOTAL MAJORS 5 TO 7
TOTAL CAT 5's 2 TO 4
Tomorrow looks like a contaminating day for Japan..



Anybody that wants to see the global plume track to date, click on my handle..shocked diluted plume is sinking to the surface here in FL with this backdoor cold front. Yesterday I posted the airnow fine particle air monitor map of the gulf. Had never seen FL all in the moderate except the worst of the oil spill with a west wind. I was assuming maybe that new slick they were checking out til I went outside..Double checked it..east to west across the state. Looks a bit better tonight, little elevated compared to usual...plume maybe?

@ Skye re. #201, r u going to archive that somewhere? I think that's a pretty good summary of a realistic scenario for this season. I'm still not seeing the el nino working out, though with BoM heading that way I may take that possibility a bit more seriously.
.
Quoting alfabob:


Here's a graph I made of previous Atlantic hurricane seasons. The data was divided into 3 separate categories of sustained winds (6 hour reports). This should give a general idea of the shear environments by comparing the relative amplitude of each category for a single year (and other cycles). *Also this is before any changes were made to the 2010 data, so the numbers could change a little for last year.

Thanks for this. Now if we could overlay this on the PDO chart I found....



There certainly seems to be a certain amount of correlation between increased storm numbers in the ATL and a warm PDO... very casual observation, mind u...
Quoting Drakoen:


I can go back further if you want and the result is the same.

Also why avoid the fact that the tripole wasn't defined February? I've seen you cover winter correlation but not hurricane season correlation.

It is known that La Nina increases the pressure in the upper atmosphere of the subtropical Atlantic and strengthens the Tropical Easterly Jet but whether or not these are a function of the NAO, I have not seen explicitly stated.


Didn't mean to get you guys into an argument, but it has been interesting to watch. I do have another question. Even though the Arctic dipole anomaly is a pretty recent observation, I haven't seen incorporated too much into any analysis in how it affects wind shear in either a negative or positive AO. I believe Dr. Masters may have mentioned once or twice, but do you have additional information on its possible effects? After reading a little on it, I wonder if that could have been the missing factor when the tropical systems didn't behave like they did in so-called off-years.
Quoting Grothar:
.


At first you don't succeed pick yourself up and try again.
Anyway, thanks for the sane discussion tonight, all.

I gotta get out by 4:30 a.m. tomorrow, so I'm off to bed. Have a good one!
Quoting Drakoen:


At first you don't succeed pick yourself up and try again.


Don't ever get old Drak, It's not fun. LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Didn't mean to get you guys into an argument, but it has been interesting to watch. I do have another question. Even though the Arctic dipole anomaly is a pretty recent observation, I haven't seen incorporated too much into any analysis in how it affects wind shear in either a negative or positive AO. I believe Dr. Masters may have mentioned once or twice, but do you have additional information on its possible effects? After reading a little on it, I wonder if that could have been the missing factor when the tropical systems didn't behave like they did in so-called off-years.


Haven't seen any papers and searched through google scholar.
Quoting Skyepony:
Tomorrow looks like a contaminating day for Japan..



Anybody that wants to see the global plume track to date, click on my handle..shocked diluted plume is sinking to the surface here in FL with this backdoor cold front. Yesterday I posted the airnow fine particle air monitor map of the gulf. Had never seen FL all in the moderate except the worst of the oil spill with a west wind. I was assuming maybe that new slick they were checking out til I went outside..Double checked it..east to west across the state. Looks a bit better tonight, little elevated compared to usual...plume maybe?

How many times above normal is the radiation in Florida?
162 alfabob "I hope this is not true" then quoting "blah blah blah blah"...

...from an obviously disreputable source, and no I haven't bothered to google for the who. Conflating "weapons-grade plutonium" with "MOX fuel rods" is well past "Obama isn't American" territory and nearly into the "UN black helicopters are gathering to attack the US" zone.

Unless the manufacturer is mixing already purified weapons-grade plutonium with depleted uranium to create the mixed oxide fuel rod -- which would be contrary to the whole point of making MOX -- it's just as easy to separate weapons-grade uranium from a MOX fuel rod (or from a uranium isotopes only fuel rod) as it is to separate weapons-grade plutonium from the other plutonium isotopes contained in a MOX fuel rod (or contained in an already used/spent uranium fuel rod). NOT very easy, and ya gotta worry more about workplace contamination.
Separation-for-enrichment to weapons-grade is quite a bit more difficult than the "Iranians are gonna nuke us tomorrow" crowd wants ya to believe.

And just chemically separating the plutonium from the MOX without separation-for-enrichment leaves ya with a lump of metal that goes "phfffut" insteada "KABOOM". Witness the Pakistani "nuclear bomb" tests, or at least as likely, Pakistani dirty bomb tests.
Good for contaminating neighborhoods, but crummy for taking out military targets with instant destruction; cheaper to use nerve gas for a similar level of incapacitation.
Good ifn ya wanna induce instant rage in every other nuclear power, without inducing much fear of "what's gonna happen to us if we join in on the retaliation?"

Yeah, Japan undoubtedly has the technological capability to build isotope enrichment facilities, then to create weapons-grade fuel, then to design&build a working bomb.
But it has had all that without any help from the French: probably since the early '70s, and certainly before the French had achieved its latest generation fusion(enhanced-fission)bombs.
Which leaves the only reason for importing French MOX as being that the French were offering those fuel rods for sale at a price which the Japanese can't undercut... not even by including an energy independence bonus for domestic production.
Quoting Grothar:


Don't ever get old Drak, It's not fun. LOL


Yeah, growing up isn't fun LOL
Quoting caneswatch:


Yeah, growing up isn't fun LOL


Enjoy it now canes. You are a smart guy, so make wise decisions.
Quoting Grothar:


Don't ever get old Drak, It's not fun. LOL


Growing old isn't to bad... its when you go from old to ancient like you did, that hurts :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Growing old isn't to bad... its when you go from old to ancient like you did, that hurts :)


OOOOh, that hurts. They say you are only as old as you feel. If that's true, I'm in big trouble.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Enjoy it now canes. You are a smart guy, so make wise decisions.


I already do. My motto: "Never give up."
GaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaDamn.I miss the hurricane disscussion compleatly.Well maybe just one comment.Anyway I think the U.S,and the south carribean is in danger.The luck has to end some where along the line you know.....
Quoting aspectre:
162 alfabob "I hope this is not true" then quoting "blah blah blah blah"...

...from an obviously disreputable source, and no I haven't bothered to google for the who. Conflating "weapons-grade plutonium" with "MOX fuel rods" is well past "Obama isn't American" territory and nearly into the "UN black helicopters are gathering to attack the US" stuff.


Well that's the whole bonus in using MOX isn't it? to reduce the stockpiles of weapon grade plutonium since we kind of over did it in the first place (and there are different methods in how the materials are processed). Plus any reputable conspiracy theorist would know that if there were some agenda to attack America, it would not be a blatant full on assault (such as some secret army flying in on black helicopters); but that's besides the point.

Quoting aspectre:


It's just as easy to separate the weapons-grade uranium from a MOX fuel rod (or from a uranium isotopes only fuel rod) as it is to separate weapons-grade plutonium from the other plutonium isotopes contained in a MOX fuel rod.


I was assuming that all isotopes were present, but my calculation was for reactor grade MOX. So individual isotope concentrations may be different in pure weapon grade plutonium.

Quoting aspectre:



Which leaves the only reason for importing French MOX as being that the French were offering those fuel rods for sale at a price which the Japanese can't undercut... not even by including an energy independence bonus for domestic production.


Maybe not the only, there was probably some political pressure in there also; but why would anyone take the time to produce the plutonium via refinement when there are already large stock piles around the world? MOX is also much more expensive to disposal of and handle, so it doesn't really add up unless you take into account that they probably produced the rods from weapon grade material and also got a bonus as you have said.
Had to do it canes. I know it’s tired, but it fit perfectly with your post.

To those offended, do you know how much I have had to put up with your posts????
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:



Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Had to do it canes. I know it%u2019s tired, but it fit perfectly with your post.

To those offended, do you know how much I have had to put up with your posts????


Never gonna let you down.

Geoff, who cares about the "blog police" AHEM
Extremely breezy here in St. Andrew, Jamaica. Norbrook to be precise.

Spoke with my mom in Stony HIll and it's bad there too.

Transformer exploded ad we had a very short power outage. Probably because of power lines hitting each other in the wind,

Anybody know what's affecting the weather conditions?
Quoting caneswatch:



Never gonna let you down.

Geoff, who cares about the "blog police" AHEM


It really is comical to me. This is an "Entertainment Blog". Yes, good information is passed on here. But if a Hurricane is a threat to my area, I will listen to my local authorities. Not random blog wish casters.
Quoting kimoskee:
Extremely breezy here in St. Andrew, Jamaica. Norbrook to be precise.

Spoke with my mom in Stony HIll and it's bad there too.

Transformer exploded ad we had a very short power outage. Probably because of power lines hitting each other in the wind,

Anybody know what's affecting the weather conditions?


I am wondering too Kim, I live in Acadia, near Barbican.
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


I am wondering too Kim, I live in Acadia, near Barbican.


The only thing I can find is a small craft warning:

March 21, 2011 at 4:00 p.m.

WARNING MESSAGE (MARINE)


Small Craft Warning remains in effect for inshore and offshore areas of the north coast and also offshore areas of the south coast due to strong winds and rough seas.

pef
Interesting, and quite significantly so.

Officials: South Fla. water table rose after quake


Still checkin this too,,,,,,, remember the slosh in Lake Pontchartrain from the Chile quake?

Theoretical P-Wave Travel Times
Magnitude 9.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Friday, March 11, 2011 at 05:46:23 UTC


Hummm?

Quoting kimoskee:


The only thing I can find is a small craft warning:

March 21, 2011 at 4:00 p.m.

WARNING MESSAGE (MARINE)


Small Craft Warning remains in effect for inshore and offshore areas of the north coast and also offshore areas of the south coast due to strong winds and rough seas.

pef



Looks like a strong pressure gradient.


Quoting Drakoen:


I can go back further if you want and the result is the same.

Also why avoid the fact that the tripole wasn't defined February? I've seen you cover winter correlation but not hurricane season correlation.

It is known that La Nina increases the pressure in the upper atmosphere of the subtropical Atlantic and strengthens the Tropical Easterly Jet but whether or not these are a function of the NAO, I have not seen explicitly stated.


I avoided nothing. The trade winds were actually stronger than normal in February, due to the fact that it wasn't as much of a tripole.



I'd also appreciate it if you don't accuse me of "covering things up" without any proof, because I have done no such thing.

Also, I said that sometimes the NAO is the cause of reduced or increased wind shear. I also said that it was my bad for not clarifying as much in my very first response to Grothar, as I didn't mention that I was speaking only of the winter, where it predominantly lessens shear.
If anyone speaks Japanese,especially Japanese Sign Language, we could use some help. There is a link posted to our blog from the Japanese Federation of the Deaf to a video. We need to know what is being said.

Many thanks!!
Pressure Gradient Force The variation of heating (and consequently the variations of pressure) from one locality to another is the initial factor that produces movement of air or wind. The most direct path from high to low pressure is the path along which the pressure is changing most rapidly. The rate of change is called the pressure gradient. Pressure gradient force is the force that moves air from an area of high pressure to an area of low pressure. The velocity of the wind depends upon the pressure gradient. If the pressure gradient is strong, the wind speed is high. If the pressure gradient is weak, the wind speed is light.
Quoting Grothar:


Didn't mean to get you guys into an argument, but it has been interesting to watch. I do have another question. Even though the Arctic dipole anomaly is a pretty recent observation, I haven't seen incorporated too much into any analysis in how it affects wind shear in either a negative or positive AO. I believe Dr. Masters may have mentioned once or twice, but do you have additional information on its possible effects? After reading a little on it, I wonder if that could have been the missing factor when the tropical systems didn't behave like they did in so-called off-years.


Again it really depends. As you can see, the correlation between the AO and 200mb zonal wind (the main contributer to wind shear) is nearly zero in the deep tropical Atlantic. It is nearly zero for 850mb zonal wind as well.



The numerical value of the AO or the NAO only tells you how the polar annular mode is evolving overall. It does not tell you the details of the complex short wave-length summer pattern over the north Atlantic. It can look very different and have several different faces for any given value of the AO or NAO.

For example, although the positive NAO is believed by some to direct more storms out to sea and protect the United States, it turns out that the years in which the U.S. received the most hurricane landfalls had a mean positive NAO during the summer months with a stronger baroclinic zone south of Iceland (seen below). This helps set up the blocking south of Hudson Bay over North America which cultivates tropical activity southeast of the US and allows storms to get directed towards the coast instead of recurving away from it. The upper convergence on the back side of the Icelandic Low can also contribute to surface ridging in the north Atlantic which prevents some of the storms from recurving.

Aug-Oct 500mb height anomalies for years with 3 or more U.S. hurricane landfalls:

Quoting Levi32:


I avoided nothing. The trade winds were actually stronger than normal in February, due to the fact that it wasn't as much of a tripole.



I'd also appreciate it if you don't accuse me of "covering things up" without any proof, because I have done no such thing.

Also, I said that sometimes the NAO is the cause of reduced or increased wind shear. I also said that it was my bad for not clarifying as much in my very first response to Grothar, as I didn't mention that I was speaking only of the winter, where it predominantly lessens shear.


No accusation was made, that was your assumption. I simply asked why you avoided that month that didn't have the tripole which of course results in higher in 850mb lower speeds. That reflects the variability of the NAO.
I think you are trying to find a relationship between the upper level winds (200mb) that may or may not be there. To my knowledge the NAO impacted the low level winds speeds.

If you can find me a paper that relates the NAO to upper level winds in the subtropical Atlantic, I will gladly read it.
Quoting Drakoen:


No accusation was made, that was your assumption. I simply asked why you avoided that month that didn't have the tripole which of course results in higher in 850mb lower speeds. That reflects the variability of the NAO.
I think you are trying to find a relationship between the upper level winds (200mb) that may or may not be there. To my knowledge the NAO impacted the low level winds speeds.

If you can find me a paper that relates the NAO to upper level winds in the subtropical Atlantic, I will gladly read it.


While the subtropical high may not extend up to 200mb, height rises and falls still do occur with swings in the NAO. Obviously this will affect the winds at that level. The correlation map shows at least a weak-moderate relationship during the hurricane season.

Hi everybody - haven't been on for a while and have missed all the lively interaction regarding weather. A couple of things -

The news this am said there is an area of sub tropical distrubance off of Brazil, which is a very rare occurence and theorized that this would be a new area for storm formation due to global warming.

And the other, I worked for a long time for a utility in the US which was stockpiling spent fuel. The gripe at the time was that for every kilowatt generated for nuclear fuel, the govt had to be paid its share for storing the fuel. The kicker was, the govt wouldn't provide a place to store the fuel so it just piled up. Millions of dollars paid in return for no commitment by the government to safely store the fuel. Don't know the system in Japan but let's hope our coastal plants don't get hit with each plant's stockpiles in an earthquake/tsunami situation. The reactors themselves (at least the one in Arizona) is soundly built and seldom has issues. But those stockpiles just sit there waiting to happen.

Feels good to be back. I've been laid up and just haven't been on line.
Did I kill the blog??
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
How many times above normal is the radiation in Florida?


Not much above background. That global model is a measurement of Just Xe-133 which is a really light gas that will stay aloft much longer than many other particles that are being washed out. They seem to be checking ground obs & didn't mention FL, but looking at the animation & model you wouldn't expect to be able to measure anything til tomorrow.

I'd love for some math wizard to work out all the zeros. The scale is odd (it's translated in my blog entry). As some of that is referring to the other model runs on the page here.



Baha~ I archived it in my blog,for what that is worth.
TropicTraveler~ Figured you were out at sea somewhere. Welcome back. Had to check out the storm you were looking at. That last one held together pretty good when it stepped off land.. There it is.
Thanks for the pic SkyePony. Wonder if we now will have new zone. If so are they hurricanes or cyclones?
Growing old certainly beats the alternative....

Quoting PcolaDan:


I just sprayed my computer with ArmorAll. Waiting to see how it works. ;)



Oh no! You are suppose to put the ArmorAll on your ethernet cable and the keys. Once that malware hits your monitor it's over with. The only way to fix it then is with a new Geek Squad mouse pad. LOL
Quoting kimoskee:


The only thing I can find is a small craft warning:

March 21, 2011 at 4:00 p.m.

WARNING MESSAGE (MARINE)


Small Craft Warning remains in effect for inshore and offshore areas of the north coast and also offshore areas of the south coast due to strong winds and rough seas.

pef


The tail of that cold front just north of you was windy through here the other day.
A 360degree view of Kesennuma that ya ain't gonna see on StreetView. What struck me as oddest is how undamaged&upright the ship appears to be while nearly everything else is totally whack.
Mag 6.6 to the east of Fukushima at a distance of about 150 miles.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 07:18:47 UTC

depth 16.5 miles

details and maps


Edit: no tsunami
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Thanks for the pic SkyePony. Wonder if we now will have new zone. If so are they hurricanes or cyclones?


They would be referred to as "cyclones". See: Cyclone Catarina.
There's been an odd burst of seismic activity east of Japan this morning: there was a 6.6 150 miles east of Honshu about two and a half hours ago; a 6.4 82 miles east of the Fukushima reactors 45 minutes ago; and yet another 6.6 100 miles northeast of Sendai just moments ago. All three of these come several days after the last similarly-sized aftershocks have occurred. Just a little more settling going on. I hope.

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's been an odd burst of seismic activity east of Japan this morning: there was a 6.6 150 miles east of Honshu about two and a half hours ago; a 6.4 82 miles east of the Fukushima reactors 45 minutes ago; and yet another 6.6 100 miles northeast of Sendai just moments ago. All three of these come several days after the last similarly-sized aftershocks have occurred. Just a little more settling going on. I hope.

Link

Thanks for the update. That does seem strange being that it's been several days where it's been relatively quiet. We shall see I guess...
Another swarm of quakes.



A small group of earthquakes in Fukushima

Red - last hour
Blue - last day
Yellow - last week

But,



Why read the news? It's already been reported.

"For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be earthquakes in divers places, and there shall be famines and troubles: these [are] the beginnings of sorrows." Mark 13:8
Hmmmm, the Super Moon didnt cause any major Earthquake....YET :)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Thanks for the update. That does seem strange being that it's been several days where it's been relatively quiet. We shall see I guess...

It's been going on since before the big one. Funny how a 6 any where else would be big news and the shear quantity of quakes in this region in the last two weeks is not very notable. Earthquakes are a way of life in Japan just like tornadoes in Kansas.
Reuters: Japan's nuclear agency says the spent nuclear fuel pool at reactor 2 is filled with water.
At a guess, 82miles is probably to the city of Fukushima. I'm getting:
6.6magnitude at 93.4degrees(E) 161miles from FukushimaDaiichi
6.4magnitude at 97.4degrees(E) 46miles from FukushimaDaiichi
6.6magnitude at 36.9degrees(NE) 213miles from FukushimaDaiichi

img src="37.423n141.033e-35.700n139.715e" alt="" width="420" height="420"
The northern lone red dot is the city of Fukushima
The southern lone red dot is central Tokyo
super moon? maybe a percentage bigger
Fortunately the big floods that might have been expected due to flooding haven't materialized.



Just a few black dots in the north.
Quoting kellnerp:

It's been going on since before the big one. Funny how a 6 any where else would be big news and the shear quantity of quakes in this region in the last two weeks is not very notable. Earthquakes are a way of life in Japan just like tornadoes in Kansas.

That is true. Not going to disagree with that.
Quoting islander101010:
super moon? maybe a percentage bigger

Very minuscule in the whole grand scheme of things. The moon is said to have moved approximately an inch away from Earth every year I've heard. So millions of years ago, the moon was enormous in the sky, and the tides were much more significant.
Quoting kellnerp:
Fortunately the big floods that might have been expected due to flooding haven't materialized.



Just a few black dots in the north.

Unfortunately, there's lots of time. In fact, the bulk of the flooding is expected to be get underway in another week or so, and last for several weeks beyond that. There is, as Dr. Masters has repeatedly noted, an enormous amount of snow and ice across the upper tier of states and into Canada that is going to melt relatively quickly, and very shortly.

It's going to be a costly spring, I'm afraid.

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

(The bottom map shows all the river gauges in the network. Those colored purple are seeing major flooding, while red signals moderate flooding.)
Cassini Sees Seasonal Rains Transform Titan's Surface

PASADENA, Calif. -- As spring continues to unfold at Saturn, April showers on the planet's largest moon, Titan, have brought methane rain to its equatorial deserts, as revealed in images captured by NASA's Cassini spacecraft. This is the first time scientists have obtained current evidence of rain soaking Titan's surface at low latitudes.

Extensive rain from large cloud systems, spotted by Cassini's cameras in late 2010, has apparently darkened the surface of the moon. The best explanation is these areas remained wet after methane rainstorms. The observations released today in the journal Science, combined with earlier results in Geophysical Research Letters last month, show the weather systems of Titan's thick atmosphere and the changes wrought on its surface are affected by the changing seasons.

"It's amazing to be watching such familiar activity as rainstorms and seasonal changes in weather patterns on a distant, icy satellite," said Elizabeth Turtle, a Cassini imaging team associate at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab in Laurel, Md., and lead author of today's publication. "These observations are helping us to understand how Titan works as a system, as well as similar processes on our own planet."

The Saturn system experienced equinox, when the sun lies directly over a planet's equator and seasons change, in August 2009. (A full Saturn "year" is almost 30 Earth years.) Years of Cassini observations suggest Titan's global atmospheric circulation pattern responds to the changes in solar illumination, influenced by the atmosphere and the surface, as detailed in the Geophysical Research Letters paper. Cassini found the surface temperature responds more rapidly to sunlight changes than does the thick atmosphere. The changing circulation pattern produced clouds in Titan's equatorial region.

Clouds on Titan are formed of methane as part of an Earth-like cycle that uses methane instead of water. On Titan, methane fills lakes on the surface, saturates clouds in the atmosphere, and falls as rain. Though there is evidence that liquids have flowed on the surface at Titan's equator in the past, liquid hydrocarbons, such as methane and ethane, had only been observed on the surface in lakes at polar latitudes. The vast expanses of dunes that dominate Titan's equatorial regions require a predominantly arid climate. Scientists suspected that clouds might appear at Titan's equatorial latitudes as spring in the northern hemisphere progressed. But they were not sure if dry channels previously observed were cut by seasonal rains or remained from an earlier, wetter climate.

An arrow-shaped storm appeared in the equatorial regions on Sept. 27, 2010 -- the equivalent of early April in Titan's "year" -- and a broad band of clouds appeared the next month. As described in the Science paper, over the next few months, Cassini's imaging science subsystem captured short-lived surface changes visible in images of Titan's surface. A 193,000-square-mile (500,000-square-kilometer) region along the southern boundary of Titan's Belet dune field, as well as smaller areas nearby, had become darker. Scientists compared the imaging data to data obtained by other instruments and ruled out other possible causes for surface changes. They concluded this change in brightness is most likely the result of surface wetting by methane rain.

These observations suggest that recent weather on Titan is similar to that over Earth's tropics. In tropical regions, Earth receives its most direct sunlight, creating a band of rising motion and rain clouds that encircle the planet.

"These outbreaks may be the Titan equivalent of what creates Earth's tropical rainforest climates, even though the delayed reaction to the change of seasons and the apparently sudden shift is more reminiscent of Earth's behavior over the tropical oceans than over tropical land areas," said Tony Del Genio of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, a co-author and a member of the Cassini imaging team.

On Earth, the tropical bands of rain clouds shift slightly with the seasons but are present within the tropics year-round. On Titan, such extensive bands of clouds may only be prevalent in the tropics near the equinoxes and move to much higher latitudes as the planet approaches the solstices. The imaging team intends to watch whether Titan evolves in this fashion as the seasons progress from spring toward northern summer.

"It is patently clear that there is so much more to learn from Cassini about seasonal forcing of a complex surface-atmosphere system like Titan's and, in turn, how it is similar to, or differs from, the Earth's," said Carolyn Porco, Cassini imaging team lead at the Space Science Institute, Boulder, Colo. "We are eager to see what the rest of Cassini's Solstice Mission will bring."

The Cassini-Huygens mission is a cooperative project of NASA, the European Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the Cassini-Huygens mission for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington. The Cassini orbiter and its two onboard cameras were designed, developed and assembled at JPL. The imaging team is based at the Space Science Institute in Boulder, Colo. For more information about the Cassini-Huygens mission, visit http://www.nasa.gov/cassini and http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov .
U.S. military considers mandatory evacuations in Yokosuka, Japan Link
An interesting observation I made is since yesterday was the first day of spring, the crickets actually started chirping for the first time last night. They know whats up.
Are ever going to have a weather blog again? This blog is becoming depressing. Hurricane Season just over 2 months away with some potential for May development considering the heat building in Gulf/Caribbean.
All the models show active wx for FL next week which is great considering how dry it's been.
Quoting RastaSteve:
Are ever going to have a weather blog again? This blog is becoming depressing. Hurricane Season just over 2 months away with some potential for May development considereing the heat building in Gulf/Caribbean.

Don't worry my friend. It will be weather again.
Are you kidding??? Never discuss weather in polite company.
It'll only lead to bickering, fights, and hard feelings.
HPC 5 day precipitation outlook show not much relief for the areas affected by the drought.

Should I dare say the Gulf coast somewhere is due for a tropical flooding event...


The golden rule is... dry spring, storm later
Quoting RastaSteve:
All the models show active wx for FL next week which is great considering how dry it's been.

Next week is a long way off. Let's hope so.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Should I dare say the Gulf coast somewhere is due for a tropical flooding event...




they sure could use an abundance of steady tropical rainfall from a storm thats tropical in nature with a nice name and light winds :)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Should I dare say the Gulf coast somewhere is due for a tropical flooding event...



All it will take is for a weak tropical storm or depression to just sit over an area for several days in June. Very possible if not likely.
Last 180 days illustrates a rather large and widespread precipitation deficit for the southern central CONUS.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

All it will take is for a weak tropical storm or depression to just sit over an area for several days in June. Very possible if not likely.
No thanks, I'll pass.
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's been an odd burst of seismic activity east of Japan this morning: there was a 6.6 150 miles east of Honshu about two and a half hours ago; a 6.4 82 miles east of the Fukushima reactors 45 minutes ago; and yet another 6.6 100 miles northeast of Sendai just moments ago. All three of these come several days after the last similarly-sized aftershocks have occurred. Just a little more settling going on. I hope.

Link

Honestly, the lull followed by some 6's gets me a bit uneasy. That kind of pattern is prime for a larger shock, especially after a great quake.

One thing that does make me feel a little better is that the sheer quantity of the immediate aftershocks may have eased the strain resulting from the big quake, much like some sections of faults "creep", or have very consistent small-to-moderate quakes, as opposed to huge ones.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
U.S. military considers mandatory evacuations in Yokosuka, Japan Link

Current radiation levels for Kanagawa Prefecture near Yokosuka, Japan. A small but noticeable rise in radiation levels have been observed consistently over the past couple days. This is probably mainly due to the change in winds now blowing onshore from the north-northeast.
Quoting jeffs713:
No thanks, I'll pass.

That is exactly what I had in mind at the time I wrote that. Yes, I will pass too!
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Last 180 days illustrates a rather large and widespread precipitation deficit for the southern central CONUS.

Yep. Some grass is very slow to bounce back from the winter in the area, and many trees are struggling. One item of note is that here in the Houston area, October was VERY dry (we had almost 40 days without measurable rain), but we had several stretches of near-normal rain. The 180-day period is covering October, so it will be a bit skewed onto the dry side.
Quoting alfabob:
I hope this is not true:


SECRET SHIPMENT OF NUCLEAR BOMB MATERIAL FROM EUROPE TO JAPAN in 2010

"Last fall, two ships carrying a secret cargo of dangerous, nuclear weapons-usable plutonium fuel left ports in Britain and France and sail around the globe to Japan.

I found a report from Greenpeace (1999) about this Link
Quoting RitaEvac:



Yikes
Quoting jeffs713:
Yep. Some grass is very slow to bounce back from the winter in the area, and many trees are struggling. One item of note is that here in the Houston area, October was VERY dry (we had almost 40 days without measurable rain), but we had several stretches of near-normal rain. The 180-day period is covering October, so it will be a bit skewed onto the dry side.

Yes, that map definitely was biased toward illustrating the largest deficit...which happened to be over that six month span. However; amounts more recently account for the deficit not as large during the past three months. Either way, your wet season is upon you, and this is the time to really start tapping into the Gulf for that moisture. Hopefully this pattern will begin to play out by April.
Never know, could have a tropical storm first week of June just like Allison, only month and a half away
Cat5 what area are you from?
New Blog!!!
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yes, that map definitely was biased toward illustrating the largest deficit...which happened to be over that six month span. However; amounts more recently account for the deficit not as large during the past three months. Either way, your wet season is upon you, and this is the time to really start tapping into the Gulf for that moisture. Hopefully this pattern will begin to play out by April.
Yep. I could deal with a few inches per week, spread out over several days. I don't want 4 inches in one day, but 4 inches spread out over a week (or even 3 days) would do wonders.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Cat5 what area are you from?

It depends upon the time of year. I grew up in Chicago, but stay down in South Florida for the winter and spring months and then in Isle of Palms, SC for the summer and fall.

Your in Houston like Jeff713, right?
Quoting kellnerp:
Why read the news? It's already been reported.

"For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be earthquakes in divers places, and there shall be famines and troubles: these [are] the beginnings of sorrows." Mark 13:8


Why is it after every disaster, people start hauling out their favorite myths about the end of the world?

You don't need magical sky people to explain the earthquakes we're seeing. It's only been in the last couple of decades that we've even been capable of monitoring the planet for seismic activity. Before then, the only way we knew about earthquakes and tsunamis were if people happened to live in the area.

The same is true about hurricanes, volcanoes, floods, and so on. Before modern technology came on the scene, the only way we knew about something was if it affected an area with people in it. Now we have more advanced theories and better methods in determining what has happened in the past as well as what is happening today and possibly into the future.

If you wish to bring in mythological references as an explanation for current events, there are plenty of rapture-based and religious blogs out there to do so. On here, we usually stick to science.
Quoting jeffs713:
Yep. I could deal with a few inches per week, spread out over several days. I don't want 4 inches in one day, but 4 inches spread out over a week (or even 3 days) would do wonders.

Exactly. The kind of rain that friendly not only the trees and vegetation, but the storm drains as well.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Why is it after every disaster, people start hauling out their favorite myths about the end of the world?

You don't need magical sky people to explain the earthquakes we're seeing. It's only been in the last couple of decades that we've even been capable of monitoring the planet for seismic activity. Before then, the only way we knew about earthquakes and tsunamis were if people happened to live in the area.

The same is true about hurricanes, volcanoes, floods, and so on. Before modern technology came on the scene, the only way we knew about something was if it affected an area with people in it. Now we have more advanced theories and better methods in determining what has happened in the past as well as what is happening today and possibly into the future.

If you wish to bring in mythological references as an explanation for current events, there are plenty of rapture-based and religious blogs out there to do so. On here, we usually stick to science.
hmmmm....What about 12/21/12 dude.?...huh, huh, can you answer that ...huh?????..jk Xyrus..I liked your post..It made me laugh..
Quoting Levi32:


Less than last year, which is typical of the season following a moderate-strong La Nina year. I am currently thinking more along the lines of 14-16 storms are likely.


sounds pretty close to the Gray/Klotzbach forecast...mornin' Levi!
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's been an odd burst of seismic activity east of Japan this morning: there was a 6.6 150 miles east of Honshu about two and a half hours ago; a 6.4 82 miles east of the Fukushima reactors 45 minutes ago; and yet another 6.6 100 miles northeast of Sendai just moments ago. All three of these come several days after the last similarly-sized aftershocks have occurred. Just a little more settling going on. I hope.

Link


Wow, those poor people REALLY can't catch a break. Unbelievable.