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One tropical wave to watch in the mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on July 02, 2007

A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa late last week is now near 8N 35W, way out in the middle of the Atlantic. This wave has heavy thunderstorm activity and some counterclockwise spin to it, as seen on both visible satellite loops and QuikSCAT. Wind shear is 10-20 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 10 and 30 knots in the region over the next two days. Sea surface temperatures are 27-28 C, which is warm enough to support some tropical development. Dry air does not seem to be a hindrance, as the Saharan Air Layer is about 150 miles to the north of the wave. The GFS model does indicate a tropical depression might form here, although our other three reliable models, the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF, do not. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare. Due to this fact, plus the somewhat marginal wind shear and the position of the wave so close to the Equator, I'm not expecting it to develop. However, we should keep an eye on it this week as it moves very slowly to the west at less than 5 mph.



I'll be back this afternoon with my bi-monthly hurricane outlook, for the first half of July.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

drakoen-(dray-ko-en)
The wave does indeed have a very good mid-level spin to it.

AVN Loop
hurricane23 isn't the low at the surface lol?
The site is experiencing some data loss and stuff I believe. Your still here thisisfurious.That is not the case Im sure. Patrap
hurricane23 isn't the low at the surface lol?

THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURE IS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM TO THE E OF THE WAVE ANALYZED 1014 MB NEAR 8N36W. WHILE THIS LOW DOES HAVE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND CONFINED WITHIN 180 NM S AND W OF THE CENTER.
IIRC, NHC won't task the 53rd WRS to investigate anything East of 50W in the deep tropics, or anything East of Bermuda farther North unless it is a threat to Bermuda.


As mentioned, no sense wasting fuel, and putting an aircraft very far from land, for something that isn't an immediate threat.
508. ryang
Hey Guys...
surface analysis.
Link Is that an eyewall?????
Thanks Patrap! I was hopin' I didn't get a complete dis-invitation.

Nice post Drak..shows the low level low BEHIND the wave axis...
Seems that the center is exposed and convection is wrapping around it. I know its not an eyewall (to save for future argument).
There isa NO eyewall. Only a Strong TS or Hurricane has an eyewall.
/> after 620 Drakoen.
lol WPB. EYEWALL....
If it is its still very ill defined.If this does get organized which the chances are not great it will be slow in nature.First thing its got move up some as its still to close to the equater for siginificant development to take place.Also upper level winds are only marginal at best for development.Adrian
JTWC sat page..for the link of the DAy...Link
Patrap i only posted that image to show that there is a low at the surface.
Visible loop Link

Seems to be moving NW. You can also see what I mean about the exposed center.
Why do some ..who have a Handle here. Insist on signing there real name like a NHC forecaster after a post?. That..isnt the norm..and brings a sense of unpredictibility in the post. But I guess some feel that need.
525. RL3AO
That puts the low at around 9 degrees north which is plenty north to develop.
Eyewall - I have to laugh. You must no nothing about tropical systems if you are seeing an eyewall.
you are right about the center being exposed however there is convection near the center and around it. Seen worse looking invest.
Im glad you posted it Drak...it shows the 2:05 TWO discussion graphically...
i think WPB was joking lol.
Eyewall - I have to laugh. You must no nothing about tropical systems if you are seeing an eyewall.

See my post after it.

Seems that the center is exposed and convection is wrapping around it. I know its not an eyewall (to save for future argument).
Eyewall - I have to laugh. You must no nothing about tropical systems if you are seeing an eyewall.

Dude chill he was just kidding...
Posted By: Patrap at 6:20 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

Why do some ..who have a Handle here. Insist on signing there real name like a NHC forecaster after a post?. That..isnt the norm..and brings a sense of unpredictibility in the post. But I guess some feel that need.


I never got it either,Patrap,but now we're getting back into that "we need to watch what we say here for the sake of others" argument.
Climatology speaking development out here is very rare but its worth watching if it gets in the caribbean.
Link See how the tropics are always changing. It now looks like there is some clouds trying to cover the center again.
They seem to be some pretty high clouds also.
Patrap - some people just like the site of their own name I think. I am sure they label all of their undershirts and underwear too!

Like, climatologically speaking, when they are on a blog devoted to the climatological.

awesomeness prevails!
yes thats what i was talking about WPB.
All it lacks is convection.
i forgot to ask what do you guys think about the UKMET 12z run? Seems like a good one picks up many things.
look like 96L looks more like a TD too me
i still see the convection on the increase compared to a few hours ago. Though it lacks deep convection. I see some hgih clouds around the center as well.
Can someone draw a picture (eyelashes?) to show me where the low is versus the wave? I am still a bit visually confused on this one.

If so, much appreciated!
UKMET seems good to me. Notice how it starts off going north which the system seems to be doing now.
546. RL3AO
According to Draks 1722z post, that would put the center here.

1
When will that July update come out......
Can't wait much longer.
It is building higher and colder tops. Looks pretty good.
jp i am talking about steering currents. look at the 850mb.
Heres the low
552. RL3AO
i dont think that is where the center is RL

it looks to be around 9N 35.5W


I think you are right.
Link We got a light purple on our blob. That gives us a .2-.4 chance of development.........
i think its reasonable as far as steering goes.
WPB don't trust those things lol.
Yup Drakoen. Especially since the A/B High is expected to move SW.
WPB don't trust those things lol.

Hence the ............ ;) lol
Fire Destroys Table Mountain Rd. Mobile Home
Sunday, July 01, 2007 - 04:35 PM

Bill Johnson
MML News Director

Jamestown, CA -- Fire completely destroyed a mobile home, its contents, an outbuilding, truck, boat and trailer Sunday afternoon on Table Mountain Rd. adjacent to Homestead Bed and Breakfast.

The first alarm was sounded close to noon. Mike Harstad was working on hubcaps on a boat trailer when he discovered a wasp nest. He retrieved a can of Pledge and a lighter in an effort to torch the nest. Accordng to CAL FIRE Investigator Rommie Jones the can caught fire and Harstad threw it in nearby vegetation.




That action caused the fire which destroyed the mobile home in addition to burning approximately one acre. The mobile home was valued at $25,000, its contents at $15,000 and the outbuilding, truck, boat and trailer had a combined value of approximately $5,000.

Units responding included Air Attack, the 404 helicopter along with Air Tanker 83 from the Columbia Air Base, the Tuolumne County Fire Department and CAL FIRE.

No injuries were reported to either residents or firefighters


well that one way in killing a wasp nest LOL
Dang Taz.

I saw American Chopper do that once.
low cloud product
About the hype....

Don't stop posting because someone is debunking- especially when there are links or info backing up your claim.

I appreciate the posts by people like jp and drak(sorry i did not mention more) and Dr Masters for hosting. I have really learned a lot and found interesting tools. So keep it up!
GFS forecast i didn't realize that this was on the cyclone phase page.
Acording to the GFS its a weak TS.............
That's an awesome satellite image Drakoen!
It looks like the low is a little better organized this afternoon, but to me it looks like the convection has decreased a little since this morning.
Thats weird that they show the stronger winds in the SE quad since the colder cloud tops are on the west side. Link
dont see it, the 12Z run of the UKMET doesnt do much with this at all

Afternoon all ☺

jp, I think it is important to keep in mind that the Ukmet does not run at the same resolution as the GFS and CMC, but it is not quite as course as the Nogaps. At least I think this is the case. Does look like the Ukmet closes it off imo.

See y'all in a few hours.
so do you all think that 96L got better organized ????
it appears so scla08 but that normal.
WPB thats a forecast when i gets more organized. Guess the Gfs expecting this to change.
Also, as far as upper level winds, it looks like the shear will die down as time goes on with this wave. I do find the different speeds interesting though. CMC really moves it along...
Taz....there is no 96L, yet.

Lets call it (F)96L or CATL Wave so people don't get confused.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 6:46 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

so do you all think that 96L got better organized ????


to a certain degree. Convection fluctuates from strong to weak. wait and see game. i expect this to be an invest moves more to the west.
Anyone know when the next QuikSCAT pass will be?
Thx.
did some one say W LOL


the E coast of FL and the gulf need to watch this wave for the next few days
sometime this evening although its not really needed, considering the low is at the surface/near the surface.
am calling it 96L
Interesting that the GFS marks it as existing cyclone...
Taz ...

Can of Pladge - $2.99
Lighter - $1.50

Darwin award for bozo - PRICELESS!
Why does the GFS say use with caution
Hey All...Maybe it's just me, but am I looking at some upper level shear just ahead of the wave on the NHC visible floater? (I'm not good with the current shear charts so help me out here)..If that is shear, and it does not relax, then I think that the wave will be in for a hard time over the next 6-12 hours........
weatherman99 the GFS is only one model its not 100%.
583. RL3AO

Why does the GFS say use with caution


Because it is subject to large errors and people should not use it as life and property protecting information. They should listen to local authorities.
no shear ahead.
Drakoen is this a TS already or am I miss reading the GFS map
so what are the ch of this be comeing 96L and moveing W and makeing land fall has a cat 2 or 3 hurricane on the E coast of FL????


this asking a ?
Hey All...Maybe it's just me, but am I looking at some upper level shear just ahead of the wave on the NHC visible floater? (I'm not good with the current shear charts so help me out here)..If that is shear, and it does not relax, then I think that the wave will be in for a hard time over the next 6-12 hours........

There is shear in front of the wave but it is very light, about 5-10 knots.
GFS...."Lite fuse..GET AWAY!"

6
The Chances Are: unknown
Drakoen is this a TS already or am I miss reading the GFS map

It measures the winds at 925 MB which is not at the surface.
LMAO TAZ. definately invest. the run says existing cyclone so the GFS think that this maybe a TS or near TS already. there are other models to consider.
so what are the ch of this be comeing 96L and moveing W and makeing land fall has a cat 2 or 3 hurricane on the E coast of FL????


this asking a ?


Thanks for sending it up my way. It looks like it will make it into the Caribbean, and that is a long way out. For now it looks like a slow mover.
Posted By: Drakoen at 6:49 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

sometime this evening although its not really needed, considering the low is at the surface/near the surface
Thanks Drak & WPB...
Drakoen now where is it going
high clouds moving over the center moving to the WNW. should change to NW though.
Anyone checked the Florida drought index lately, 2 days of more widespread activity has squelched all the reds and ornanges in most counties, and yellow isn't bad, green is better, but yellow isn't dry either, sort of in between, just back on friday, the index looked bad. Now it looks much better.
It looks like its moving NW to me.
I see new, dense cloud tops forming over what appears to be the designated center.
convection starting to creep over the center.
That loop substantiates the NHC discussion/notice of the "low" in the NE quadrant of the wave; because it is further "north", and there appears to be some rotation, it may have a better chance at development than the "wave" itself (which is ready to contibute some moisture and energy to the low)..
the latest floater image. the LLC seems exposed to the west. indications are that convection is trying to wrap around it

Link
waiting for the actually GFS model run. Seems that only the cyclone phase diagram was update with the 12z run.
New blow-up of convection to the SE of the center.. It also looks like the center is moving to the WNW or NW..
RAMSDIS IMAGERY
just got back from lunch whats the status on the wave
Wave Models - Weather Models - Altimetry
Wavewatch III Wavemodel - GFS Weather Model - NAM (ETA) Weather Model - Jason1 Altimetry

Link
to see the latest.Scroll DOWN...or up..however your configured.
Posted By: Crisis57 at 7:04 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

just got back from lunch whats the status on the wave



read the last few post. We are noting heavy convection near the COC.
actully the heavy conection maybe right be over the center if you look at the pciture i just posted.
Will this be a Tropical Depression by 5:00 P.M.
weatherman99- I doubt it, its not even an invest.
tropical depression hmm. it needs to get more convection (heavy deep thunderstorm activity) than it already has. move more north.
617. RL3AO
99...do you mean by 5pm Thursday? Maybe.
i wonder if you can call the NHC and ask them what they think of this wave right now. would be interesting to hear direct information from them.
Still awaiting the July outlook.
hurricane23 has done it before Drakoen.
If it were to become a depression that would happpen near 48 hours (2 days) jsut depends on the atmospheric conditions.
yes the heaviest convection is over what appears to be the circulation centre 8N 36W.
Try to find there phone number if you do call them
i don't have their number though lol....
Straight from the NHC:

For general questions, comments, or feedback on tropical cyclones and the NHC contact our Public Relations Officer at nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov
Ill try to find it give me a minute .
i will write them an email for now.
628. RL3AO
They don't have a number where you can talk to a forecaster I would guess because right now, it wouldn't be a problem but when a major cane is bearing down on the US, the phone would be ringing no stop.
Why do that?..the info flows in regular intervals..Theres no threat,no invest..just an area of disturbed weather....
Nope no number
Drakeon, If everyone call the NHC they would be overwhelmed with calls. That is why they put out the outlook and discussion. Read it and that will tell you what they are thinking.

I would never, ever think of calling them.
632. IKE
Call them? It's 1200 miles from the Antilles. Their not gonna take phone calls. No way.
634. IKE
Posted By: clwstmchasr at 2:20 PM CDT on July 02, 2007.
Drakeon, If everyone call the NHC they would be overwhelmed with calls. That is why they put out the outlook and discussion. Read it and that will tell you what they are thinking.

I would never, ever think of calling them.


They would be pissed. Deservedly so. LOL.
lol ok. I won't just wanted a personal input. I don't even have their number just a suggestion since Hurricane23 did it with Barry. Can someone email them. I am trying to but it doesn't seem to be going through.
I just saw a new color on the weather channel. Pink in AZ it was 120 degrees on the 7 day outlook.
just got off the phone with Jim Cantore, he's headed to Panama City
just wait til nighttime settles in guys, this thing will be fun to watch regardless of whether it forms or not
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:23 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.
lol ok. I won't just wanted a personal input. I don't even have their number just a suggestion since Hurricane23 did it with Barry. Can someone email them. I am trying to but it doesn't seem to be going through.


I emailed them about one of their webpages being off and they responded fairly quickly, I just know they do respond. Just use the address on the pages.
the NHC as usual is taking it's time to ascertain if the wave could be classified as a disturbance or TD
lol storyofthecane....
Waves coming of Africa seem to want to bypass the SAL and go under it.
Uh oh Story, do we have to evacuate Panama City? LOL j/k

Is it because of Dennis or would he head to Pensacola?
644. RL3AO
Its still not a TD, but I am very surprised that is has not been called 96L.
when i send the email i get that the message failed to send. the NHC is good about being conservative about this wave.
if someone sends them a message please let me knwo what they say.
Unless I missed some of the conversations (due to work), I think the Navy has it up as an invest on their site...
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:28 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.
when i send the email i get that the message failed to send. the NHC is good about being conservative about this wave.


Go to the hurricane/forecasts page and use that guys email address. Think his last name starts with a G, I can't get to email address @ this present moment.
I'm surprised that it isn't 96L either.. I think that it should be, especially since it has a real good spin to it and because it looks like it has a little banding of convection. It's also in a fairly good spot for it to develop.
Nothing on the Navy site.
hmm so whats the thinking that this will even be called an invest by today im surprised it hasn't been
Sorry folks..........All those clouds start looking the same after a while......
this e mail the navy site they sould have 96L up vary soon
this wave is looking more good by the 1hr
lol call the NHC
lol. dense clouds over the center. I think it needs to get closer to be deemed invest 96L. who knows. maybe in an hour and a half it will be up.
At the very last frame, it looks like, again, there's a blow up of convection to the SE of the center. Also noted is some convection trying to form on the SW of the center, but not a lot.

Link
Drakoen, you have mail.
Hey guys, I have been watching and once again not talking but here goes. This wave while interesting is only a drop in the bucket compared to what is to come. IMHO, I think this season is going to come down to where not if the Cat 3's and 4's strike. There are a lot of frightening comparisons that can be made to 2005 and the SST's are actually a bit more impressive this year. If La Nina actually takes course like predicted this blog will be busier than the Social Security office on the First... (thats my tid bit with a touch of humor) Lets watch this wave develop tonight and tomorrow will be interesting...
660. RL3AO
So you can't get an answer from the NHC, so lets try to get the military to respond to your email?

:D
so Taz whats the thinking this will be our next depression the wave looks very impressive since this morning
Posted By: Tazmanian at 7:37 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

this e mail the navy site they sould have 96L up vary soon


you emailed the navy site?
If you slow down the loop, you could see what I'm talking about better..
Im not surprised some of you are surprised. Its way out in the C Atlantic..its an area of interest. It is no threat to anything. A criteria has to be met for a depression..an invest can be called at any time. Please refrain from dissing the NHC ..and let the people do their job.They are the pros....we are just bloggers.

lol very true patrap.
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:39 PM CDT on July 02, 2007.

Posted By: Tazmanian at 7:37 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

this e mail the navy site they sould have 96L up vary soon

you emailed the navy site?


Taz ALWAYS does stuff like that... that is why Aaron banned him from his blog... I never understand why he always does that, like he thinks he knows more than they do? I bet that all of his emails go into their Spam box... and personally I would do the same if somebody kept emailing me like that... he also emails the NHC and other places as well...
Even if it doesn come up on the Navy site that doesn't mean that the waves status as far as organization wiil change. Sure you get a few good pics though. Now to wait for the 18z runs.
LOL MichaelSTL. oh well. this is my first time considering mailing the NHC but i think i ahve learned my lesson already.
Re tropical wave @ 8N 89W or wherever it may be now.

We all sit around rubbing hands together, laughing ghoulishly, saying we're gonna have an invest, we're gonna have an invest. LOL

Dishes and laundry call me. BBL
670. RL3AO
What do these punks with doctorates in meteorology know about the tropics. LOL.
Posted By: Patrap at 7:39 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

Im not surprised some of you are surprised. Its way out in the C Atlantic..its an area of interest. It is no threat to anything. A criteria has to be met for a depression..an invest can be called at any time. Please refrain from dissing the NHC ..and let the people do their job.They are the pros....we are just bloggers.


I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express lastnight

:0P
Been pretty busy at work this afternoon... I see certain folks are pissed off that the Navy nor the NHC have called an invest yet.

Patience folks.
STL aron had un ban me from his blog



i this have the driest water year in
thirty years
675. IKE
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 2:41 PM CDT on July 02, 2007.
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:39 PM CDT on July 02, 2007.

Posted By: Tazmanian at 7:37 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

this e mail the navy site they sould have 96L up vary soon

you emailed the navy site?

Taz ALWAYS does stuff like that... that is why Aaron banned him from his blog... I never understand why he always does that, like he thinks he knows more than they do? I bet that all of his emails go into their Spam box... and personally I would do the same if somebody kept emailing me like that... he also emails the NHC and other places as well...


OMG!!!!!!!!

You've gotta be kidding...which I know you're not.

Jeez...TAZ. Like Patrap said...let them do their jobs. We're just bloggers.
677. RL3AO
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sunset is almost upon it.
Link

I was just wondering.. I know some of you have said that convection builds and dies at certain times. When are those times?
Maybe someone could bug the tropical forecast offices @ the NHC??? (It's a JOKE, I dont' want to bug anything) Then we would know for SURE about the newest invests, depressions and storms first but we would hear them dissing those wanna be's on the blog too, like they care if we exist, they have work to do, we are entertaining ourselves and hopefully learning in the process??? LOL
not to sound stupid but lookin at adds vis sat for fla area there seems to be a naked swirl startin up lots of convection firing along west side of fla coasts with convection startin to fire shortly in that swirl off fla over gulf wsters wsw of tampa any body else see this
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!