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One third of Arctic ice cap now missing; Midwestern floods; tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2007

Sea ice in the Arctic continues its record decline, thanks to unusually cloud-free conditions and above-average temperatures. For August 21, the National Snow and Ice Data Center estimated that fully one third of the Arctic ice cap was missing, compared to the average levels observed on that date from 1979-2000. Sea ice extent was 4.92 million square kilometers on August 21, and the 1979-2000 average for the date was about 7.3 million square kilometers. Arctic sea ice has fallen below the record low absolute minimum of 4.92 million square kilometers set in 2005 by about 8%, with another 3-5 weeks of the melting season still remaining. Reliable records of sea ice coverage go back to 1979.


Figure 1. Extent of the polar sea ice on August 21, compared to the average for the date from the 1979-2000 period (pink line). Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

With one third of the Arctic ice cap already gone, and another month of melting to go, we need to consider what effect this will have on weather, climate, and sea level rise. Well, we don't need to worry about sea level rise, since the polar sea ice is already in the ocean, and won't appreciably change sea level when it melts. However, the remarkable melting of the ice cap will likely lead to unusual weather patterns this fall and winter. The lack of sea ice will put much more heat and moisture into the polar atmosphere, affecting the path of the jet stream and the resultant storm tracks. Expect a much-delayed arrival of winter to the Northern Hemisphere again this year, which may lead to further accelerated melting of the ice cap in future years.

Last week, I remarked that the most recent images from the North Pole webcam show plenty of melt water and rainy conditions near the Pole. It turns out that was misleading, since the webcam is on a ship that was headed towards the pole, but had not reached it. There have been rainy conditions at the Pole this summer, and there is some open water there, but this is not uncommon in summer. Shifting ice frequently opens up leads (cracks) with open sea water at the Pole. It was one of these open leads that British swimmer Lewis Gordon Pugh swam in for 18 minutes this July to draw attention to global climate change.


Figure 2. Total rainfall from August 10-22 as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite.

Midwest flooding
To get an idea of the magnitude of the flooding that has hit the Midwestern U.S. during the past ten days, take a look at the total amount of rain from August 10-22 (Figure 2). We can blame Tropical Storm Erin for the rain in Texas and Oklahoma (up to 11 inches), and for the nine flooding deaths that occurred in those states. However, the unbelievable rain amounts in excess of 20 inches in Minnesota and Wisconsin were primarily due to a frontal system--with the help of some copious moisture pumped northwards by the counter-clockwise circulation around Erin while it spun over Oklahoma.

Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. Two of our four reliable forecast models, the NOGAPS and ECMWF, are predicting that a tropical depression could form off the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. The models forecast that this system would move inland over Nicaragua and Honduras by Monday.

I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
After Hurricane Dean
After Hurricane Dean
Bulldozer trying to clear sand and debris from Norman Manley Highway(Airport Road)
Findlay Ohio flood
Findlay Ohio flood
The flood is over, now the cleanup

Climate Change Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

hot temperatures=warming waters=very very dry air

Hot water = hot STEAMY air... have you ever watched a pot boil? And where do you think the rain that flooded the Midwest came from? The hot, steamy Gulf (I also remember the severe weather in the spring of 2006 being linked to warmer than normal water in the Gulf at the time). Or how can Saudi Arabia get 95 degree dewpoints? From the really hot 95-100 degrees water in the Persian Gulf (which fortunately is not an area that can support tropical cyclones). And the air above the oceans never gets much hotter than the water itself.
the MJO was favorable for about a week. Although it is forecasted to become more favorable by the end of the month
Africa has been much wetter than average over the last 30 days, and it has been like this for months:



Perhaps South America can be blamed for any dry air (just kidding); how can there be a rainforest there when no rain falls?



Even parts of the Sahara have had more rain than most of Brazil... the maps above also debunk the ITCZ as being dead when above average rainfall has been occurring (the red on the second map indicates feet of rain per month).
Its a plaintifs firm and he just works there. He doesn't even think it's going to fly. =) blame the firm, not the man.
yes Storm W
That wave south of the cape verdes looks very interesting and could be what the GFS has been hinting would develop in the CATL. interesting because it is the general area where Dean wae spawned. now what about the wave at 11N 52W? There seems to be a little organisation with each frame
StormW,
Thanks for the link.
20N 26W best thing out there.
My knowledge is not solid on wave interaction w/the ITCZ but it "looks" clear.
What would stop it from spinning up?
If you're a CMC fan like me, there's lots to watch out there. Besides the system developing in the E Pac, with which GFS agrees, the CMC has two other systems developing.

First there is the wave currently south of the Cape Verdes which the CMC develops gradually over the next 6 days into a depression or tropical storm in the mid-Atlantic. Interestingly, the GFS also develops this wave initially but then has it lose structure as it races west at breathtaking speed. The CMC moves the system west at a more normal speed. It may be on to something here--definitely worth watching.

CMC also develops the wave now just north of Venezuela near the Colombian border. A system develops very gradually off this wave and tracks NW through the W Caribbean, across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. Note that conditions are forecast to be favourable for tropical storm development in the W Carib the next few days.

Happy storm watching! hos
What I said before didn't disagree or agree with either side...and yet so many were ready to flame me. Dude...all I made was an observation and then everyone came out with their anti-GW quotes and the anti GW crowd was filled with a lot of "amening".

All I was saying is: there ISN'T anyway for us to get enough climatological information for us to conjecture ice cap coverage for all 4.5 billion years of earth history.

So what I said was:

a) We will NEVER have a large enough sample to satisfy people saying we don't have a large enough sample.

b) Then I posed the question: since whether we have 1 million years of information versus 40 years we will NEVER have a large enough sample, what standards should we use to claim data is actionable?

Instead I saw a lot of pro and anti GW dogma and no real wrestling with this core issue.
The western Atlantic certainly is exploding right now; the CPC's global tropical hazards outlook agrees that it is the western Atlantic and Caribbean that need to be watched:

1018. Drakoen
The wave nearing the coast of Africa has a 1009mb SFC low. We'll have to watch it for development.
I guess the August "silly season" also extends to this blog.
Our little recent rain.


Silly me.
S. of Cape Verdes Islands would be way more correct
Bay of Campeche Update

An upper low in the Northern Gulf of Mexico due south of New Orleans, Louisianna, continues to interact with a tropical wave near 96-98W and a broad area of low pressure to produce scattred showers over the Bay of Campeche with lightning data suggesting isolated thunderstorms. Enviromental conditions are favourable for development but recent analysis showed that limited time is there to do so before the system moves ashore spreading moisture across Northern Mexico/Southern Texas. Recent surface observation indicate no surface circulation associated with this feature but vorticity charts indicate a possible one near 700-800 mb.

Possible chance of development

Current - 15%
12 Hrs - 10%
24hrs - 5%
36 hrs - less than 5%

by W456



Image by Ohio State Tropical Weather Center
just wait till sept
just wait till oct
just wait till nov
o no the season is over
I agree STL the West Atlantic is looking about ripe.

Greece is on fire. Fire bug outta hand during a 3 day 104 heat wave. 46 have died.
1025. Drakoen
Heres an image. 90L started out with a mid level to low level circulation on Africa. Something to watch. Look at 10N 10W to see the low.
Right now I am laughing at all the people who think this year will be a bust. They think that because there is nothing out there all the time that it will be a bust. Must we all be reminded that in 2005 there was a 18 day period in AUGUST that had no activity? and look at all that activity
1029. Drakoen
Posted By: StormW at 9:05 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.

Drak,
Did you see my post earlier on the vis loop? If anyone notices, there is a west wind at the south of the wave off Africa, indicating a closed circulation.


Yes i saw the loop. Will be interesting to see how it fairs once it comes of Africa. The UKMET looks like it might be hinting at something.

wow with all the downcasters on this blog now you would think there was a free money give away on here
People keep forgetting we are ABOVE average in terms of storms.
how are we below normal? lol. 4 is the average. so how are we below average? subtropical storms count as they have counted for the past 3 years
1034. Drakoen
I think everyone has forgotten what a little above average season is like. i think too many people got spoiled by the activity in 2005
Central America Convection

Instability associated with a tropical wave near 82W south of 20N moving west near 10-15 knots aided by onshore flow and daytime heating is resulting in deep convection over most of Central America. Over Northern South America, classic "popcorn" convection is developing over Colobia, Venezuela, Gyuana and Suriname. This actvity is cleary enhance by the ITCZ east of 65W. The extent of showers are not confine the Central American landmass but exnteds well out into the Eastern Pacific, where two areas of interest is forecast to develop - a 1009 low attached to the ssouthern portion of the wave over the BOC and an area of showers southwest of Coasta Rica.

by W456
that wave south of the CV islands looks fairly good on that image
i luv lurking. ibeen lurking all day! hmm apparently there is a sfc low in the boc.......... more rain for tx.
computer models dont have to agree on systems developing like they did with Dean amy. that was a rarity to see so much agreement
Are the polar bears losing territory for a few years? Cry me a river....
florida gettting loooots of rain and thats good.
1044. Drakoen
Posted By: StormW at 9:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.

Drak,
Check out the latest...directly south of the Cape Verdes


PSU eWALL still vis


I see it. Looks a bit elongated to the west and east.
1046. Drakoen
Amystery how many computer models developed Erin?
Not everything is gonna get noticed by the computer models although it is nice when something is.
Posted By: boiredfish at 9:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.

Are the polar bears losing territory for a few years? Cry me a river....



lol.
Amy, you forget we are in a la nina pattern. la nina's give more active late seasons as well. just because things arent timed out like they should doesnt mean it will be below average. storms dont have rules on when to form and when not to form. 2001 had 4 storms in october, and they only had 4 by this time
1050. Drakoen
It seems that as soon as Dean left everyone is already ruling out the season...
Oh well i guess thats just a lack of educational knowledge.
Amy, we have had 4 pure tropical systems. we have gotten in double digits for the past decade. I dont understand why you think it will be so inactive
1054. Drakoen
Posted By: Amystery at 9:19 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.

the wave that will be coming off africa in a couple days is too far N.


What are you looking at? 10N 10W is where the low to mid level circulation is.
So then will all of us that use oil, coal and chemicals in our daily lives to stay warm, go to work and light our houses would be as guilty as the people who bring us the life altering energy - take us back to the stone ages - this is stupid litigation!! Sorry Miss Bennet but it is - shut down the life support equipment in the hospitals etc, we need the energy and after all, the knowledge of GW came many years after the advent of the use of fossil fuels, long after they were a part of our daily lives
Drak, Amy isnt looking at wehre the circulation is. she is just trying to say something to downcast it
systems can form off africa at 12-13N, they dont have to be at 10N to develop
Miss Bennet: Get back to the basics. The global warming is also increasing the quantity not just the intensity. Warmer water equals more storms.
texascanecaster1.......go to tropics chat....lol
East Atlantic Update

As of 1800 UTC (2PM EDT), a tropical wave is analysed near 28-29W south of 20N moving west near 10 knots. The wave axis is located just to west of the cape Verde Islands. No surface feature is associated with the wav and most of the convection is along the African Monsoon trough/ITCZ but enviromental conditions appears favorable for development as the wave is capped by an upper anticylone. Another interesting area is a broad area of low pressure currently over West Africa near 10-11N/12-15W. I'm a little unsure the fate of this feature as the same upper anticyclone is porducing easterly shear south of 10NN from the African Coast to near 40W but this is forecast to lessen a bit. Two areas to watch and I give both 20% chance of dveloping within the next 48 hrs.

by W456
the SAL is continueing to weaken
Here is something from the weather news today dealing with the sea ice topic. The scramble for which countries claim where of the North pole seabed & who owns what of the Northwest Passage. Canada is arming icebreaking boats, begining some military bases up there. Russia put a flag on the ocean floor. USA isn't respecting Canada's claims. Greenland wants in on this & it goes on. My 2 points, settling who gets to drill there could get real messy in many different ways. Many money hungry people salavate at the thought of this sea ice melting. & I know our reliable records with the exact amount of ice only go back to 1979 but had there been a melt of the Northwest passage even for some months on a yearly bases anytime in the last few 1000 years or so some country would have claim too it.
1065. Drakoen
If you look here you can see the circulation in eastern guinea.
Link
Drak,

Also no patience and an inability to live without constant entertainment . . . LOL

I always view the low periods as a time to review the history and see what is possible, as well as read up on phenomena I haven't fully understood. YMMV . . .
1068. Drakoen
They might be right. But NOAA also gave a 85% chance for a above average season
1071. Drakoen
Posted By: Amystery at 9:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.

I am referring to the healthier looking wave over africa that is already about 15N


Just because it looks like that doesn't mean its better of than the wave at 10N 10W. It doesn't have any type of circulation. Could easily get broken into stratocumulus clouds when it exists Africa.
noaa only dropped it from 13-17 to 13-16. not that significant
Posted By: hosweather at 8:34 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.
Interestingly, the GFS also develops this wave initially but then has it lose structure as it races west at breathtaking speed. The CMC moves the system west at a more normal speed. It may be on to something here--definitely worth watching.

Looks like both have movement correct-SSW, staying tucked up under the ridge. GFS has the breathtaking speed in hand, based on vis frames available. Catl would be the place for slow down in forward speed.
Way too early to call (for me), but if this develops in the Catl, future track may not be as straight forward as Dean (no pun intended).
Skypony, I was thinking about this earlier today. I can't see the US trying to claim on the Canadian side. Aren't we friends??? LOL

The Canadians may have to upgrade the Mounties . . .
1078. Drakoen
Posted By: Amystery at 9:29 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.

it will be interesting to see what happens come the peak of the season, will yall start thinking we might not have a above average season if we dont have a named system by then, or if we have just one?


Is that the way to submissively agree with you...
Amy, season have late starts. Cyclones dont have a rule on when to form. I will believe your predictions when were at October. Right now, I just dont feel we can make predictions when were not even at the peak yet. Lets just sit back and watch. Its not the number that matters, its the strength. It only takes one storm to kill
the us gives not a rats ass about what canada does.
hey StormW that wave offshore seems to have cyclonic turning, well evident turning
Thank god for the regulars who are back to discussing tropical weather. Thank you StormW,Drak etc... Its good to know that we didn't go a whole day talking about Global Warming on a tropical blog.
which wave the cv wave???
well StormW, looks like another one of those, wait and see things. kinda like a go to bed and wake up and see if anything has changed. A watched pot never boils lol
Has anyone talked to Lefty lately?
how are we below normal? lol. 4 is the average. so how are we below average?

Right - and the Atlantic is the only basin that has been above average so far this year, and in fact, even though the East Pacific was near average at the end of July, the NHC said that activity was well below average because most of the storms had been pretty weak; for comparison, the Atlantic doesn't usually have any major hurricanes until September and Category 5s occur only once every several years. Dean was so strong and long-lasting that its ACE (33.8) was higher than Katrina (20.0) and Rita (25.1), only Wilma (38.9) had a higher ACE than Dean.
Whether or not we have an above average season at the end of the season is not prorated on the basis of what we have at the end of August. Above average now does not translate into above average at the end of the year. Below average at the end of August does not translate into below average in December.

In other words, everybody who wanted to make a forecast, including Amy, has done so. Can we now just watch the storms so we can see who's right? This horse is so dead people have been wearing its skin as shoe leather and cowboy chaps for about 3 years. . .
1091. Drakoen
Posted By: extreme236 at 9:37 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.

....A watched pot never boils lol


lol. 90L was well wacthed even when it was of Africa. I guess the model agreement made up for that.
cirrocumulus~ Can you show us any scientific papers backing the increased number of storms??




check it out

Number of storm days goes down world wide as well. But the overall ACE (Acumulated Cyclonic Energy) goes way up looking at this world wide. Gray & others research says the increase in the # of more intense worldwide storms isn't happening but they look at as an increase in Cat 3,4 &5 compared to 1 & 2s. Where that messes up the results since the # of cat 3s are less.
I am sticking with my 14-16 storms prediction. Dont know it will be right or not but its only august so I guess we have to wait till december to know for sure if anyone's prediction is right
For those that like cool imagery and bouy sites here's a couple good ones for national radar and buoys. Once in just click your way to what you want to see.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
I know amy. But september is in a week so we are just going to have to watch. A lot can happen in a week
Oh! by the way the nws loop can take a while to load even on broadband. Be patient, it's worth it.
i wundering if we actually get anymore storms. it not an elnino year so we should but now dear is oder reasons i guess why we not get more....
Amy, you act like you KNOW there wont be any activity between now and then. You can guess, but please dont act like you know for sure
Dont know it will be right or not but its only august so I guess we have to wait till december to know for sure if anyone's prediction is right

Right. Also, I am sure that everybody thought that the season was over in 2005 when the first three weeks of November went by without any activity (then three storms developed in the last week or so, and then Zeta on the second to last day of the year). November also climatologically has more activity than July:



And I think that the number isn't as important as the intensity and duration of storms (measured by accumulated cyclone energy, like Skyepony mentioned). 1950 has the second highest ACE on record begind 2005 even though it had less than half as many storms (13, which would be near average, but 11 were hurricanes and 8 major hurricanes, including a storm that was a Cat 5 for 2 1/2 consecutive days). And not many seasons have had a Category 5, much less one making landfall.
Who knows Amy? Maybe you will be wrong. Maybe I will be wrong. Maybe NOAA will be wrong. But I am not willing to call something a dud when its not even past the peak yet
People just need to stop wishcasting and downcasting. Lets all be neutral. Lets just watch everything
Since the tropics are so quiet at the moment, may I ask one question about the SAL: it seems to me that there is also one west of Mexico (first picture on that website: Saharan Air Layer Analysis which currently appears to be quite strong. How come that the SAL extends over the American continent into the East Pacific? But there is a huge gap between the SAL around the African coast and the one in the E-Pacific. Can someone of you weather experts explain this to me, please *bats eyelashes*
Thanks alot!
eeehh??? that genisis map is true. hmmm.... see genisis is favorable. one problem:LACK OF SUFFICENT DISTURBANCES! where are all the good hearty tropical waves???where are the surfaces lows??? why alll these really diffuse weak things when atmosphere is favorable????
Amy you cant say anyone overcasting until the year is done. You dont know for sure your right. Your not a psychic. Anything can happen
Heres my point, if GW makes the rest of the atmosphere to where it's close to even with the tropics, then we have an even distribution of heat around the globe...

Tropical cyclones have nothing to do with horizontal temperature gradients (storms that feed off of such gradients are extratropical, and tropical cyclones become extratropical when they encounter such areas). Furthermore, the upper layers of the atmosphere, above the mid-troposphere into the stratosphere, are actually cooling as GHGs trap heat in the lower layers - which also proves that the sun is not the culprit behind the warming (Dr. Masters had a blog on "global cooling" a while ago).
StormW - I know so little about this topic but it would seem that we would not have those features you mentioned - just a hot, moist environment everywhere - how boring would that be? I am fascinated by thunderstorms, by their power and beauty and would miss them
well im leaving. BBL
1119. ryang
Everyone forgot the TWO?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND INLAND OVER
MEXICO ON SUNDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS
DISSIPATED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

One thing, I notice, some of u all are watching the tropics too hard for development. I think the season is goin just fine, relax and let the season do its stuff, we'll have periods of active weather and periods of calm weather. We cant have tropical cyclones every day or none everyday.
1122. ryang
By the way, the GFS develops the CV wave, maybe only a depression?
it seems to me that there is also one west of Mexico (first picture on that website: Saharan Air Layer Analysis which currently appears to be quite strong........


This is why:


Notes:

Dry air and suspended aerosols (e.g. mineral dust) both contribute to a positive "SAL" signal in this imagery, but the relative contribution of each cannot be determined from this imagery alone.
Polar air originating from the mid-latitudes produces a positive signal in this imagery that is similar to that of the SAL. This is because both air masses contain substantial dry air in the lower to middle troposphere. The JAVA movie is a useful tool for determining which type of air mass is being indicated in the imagery.
Areas of very cold water (e.g. west of South America) can affect the split window algorithm and produce a false positive "SAL" signal. These regions can be easily identified using the JAVA movie because they tend not to move or change form for several consecutive days.


The area west of Mexico is largely due to dry air (which has little to nothing to do with the real SAL from Africa) and cold water; in fact, some of the "SAL" off Africa may also be from the relatively cool waters there (cool, but not below normal aside from a few areas, with more areas of warmer than normal water):



1124. ryang
If the wave keeps up, an invest is possible tomorrow night?
Ya Know, 2005 slipped up on everybody. Then when the forcast to be almost as bad in 2006 was a bust (average after all) everybody lost faith in the system. This year they forcast an above average and conditions looked that way, unfortunatlely the weather isn't going to comply with wishcasters. It may well turn out to be a slow season, then again it may ramp up unexpectantly. I for one hope for another slow season. If you are bored with the weather I suggest a good book or movie. If you want you could join the people in the mid-west that are getting pounded. Now that's a storm to try to track, pop up and fast moving.
Posted By: definer at 9:48 PM GMT on August 24, 2007.

How can we talk about a "remarkable" ice melt and also state that reliable sea ice records only go back to 1979? Seems to me this could be another example of an "answer" ("global warming") looking for a question.

With less than 30 years of reliable data to compare to, it seems that, while the amount of melt does seem more than average, we can only talk about it in the terms of the last 30 years and state we simply don't know what was seen before. For instance, we don't have any records to indicate the amount of melt that took place during the 1930s, a period that we do know was warmer than what we see now.

Ken

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
For Ken (and anyone else)
For a minute, ignore everything else and think about the ultimate effect of a summertime ice-free Arctic Ocean....Greenland will start losing ice a lot faster.

If the current trend doesn't reverse itself, then eventually you have an ice-free Greenland. Prior to 2006, I've seen estimates around 1,500 years from now or a little sooner.

With the increased rate of Arctic ice loss for the last two years, it could be a lot sooner than 1,500 years.

Keep in mind that total Greenland ice loss equates to about 20 feet of ocean rise. It will only take about 2 to 3 feet of rise to start causing dramatic issues for coastal cities around the world. In other words, it may take less than 100 years to see dangerous ocean levels if the current trend in the Arctic sea ice melt don't stop, or reverse itself. That might happen. There's still a lot of mystery involved with explaining previous ice ages.

My estimates are rough and amateur, but I think they're fair. In late September we will hear from the scientists that do have good estimates. We may even get an unscheduled revised report from the IPCC.

Bottom line, the current Arctic ice loss trend is very troubling.
maybe only a depression?

As I keep saying, global models do not accurately show intensities; that is what Dean looked like and the GFS never analysed Dean below 1000 mb, even when it was a Cat 5.
PROCLMATION ES TROPICS
DATED 2007 ON THIS DAY OF AUGUST 25:
It has been deemed by the tropics masters that watching the tropics too hard is bad. go ahead and do it if u please, but bee warned stare to long and like all those who do: your eyes will sink and become reddened, you will not leave your computer for long streches of time, and then before you know you will find yourself wishcasting!. so be warned

hahaha. lmao so anybody find this funny???
Here is the NOGAPS analysis of Dean, which had the lowest analysed pressure of all of the models, but still didn't get below 990 mb:

Posted By: StormW at 9:51 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.

Here's fuel for thought on the GW stuff...if the


Arrgh. This Q hurts my head. First guess to a part of your question:
ELR and DAR-same.
LFC based on a surface-based parcel finding itself in a cooler enviroment. No convection under your setup.
A hurricane stiking any of the prone areas could make windstorm insurance unaffordable for most of the gulf coast and Florida residents. Rates now are backbreaking for commercial properties in Florida and forcing many industries to consider getting out(Piper, Wellcraft) Elected leaders need to consider the odds and act now. We have enough lighted public tneeis courts,
Not to say no rain, just no convective currents
on the verge of insanity tcc i have visions of people grasping there comp desk screaming aimlessly into there monitors with eyes proturing from there eye sockets sombes from weeks of lack of sleep wishcasting on everything that moves tryin to make sense out of something that makes no sense at all
check out this rotation SW of the Cape Verdes


Link
a watched pot never boils!
1140. IKE
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters


OOPS!

Hope everything is OK Dr. Masters.
p g 64 thats so true
1142. IKE
Posted By: pacegrl64 at 5:31 PM CDT on August 25, 2007.
a watched pot never boils!


I agree too.....I have a hard time sitting in front of a computer screen watching clouds spin. Maybe they'll be something in a few days.
According to ryang's link, the GFS drops development of the CV wave after 96 hours. Currently only the CMC has continuing development placing this system just N of PR in 240 hours. BTW, nice convection currently building over this wave.

CMC could end up with two firsts in a row--Erin and Felix. But then I did say I'm a CMC fan.
The activity of the blog is picking up. Yes a disturbance. Surf on
The CMC is not alone. The MM5 also develops both the CV wave and the disturbance just N of the Colombia\Venezuela border.

It will be interesting to see the next 00Z runs.
1147. Rick54
Bottom line, the current Arctic ice loss trend is very troubling.

Even more troubling to my mind is the potential for change in the world's weather systems due to changes in albedo in the arctic.
Posted By: Rick54 at 11:02 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.

Bottom line, the current Arctic ice loss trend is very troubling.

Even more troubling to my mind is the potential for change in the world's weather systems due to changes in albedo in the arctic.


here da full bottom line of global warming: Ice capes will metl, all storms of all kinds will get more itense in all ways and last longer, sea levels will eventually rise enough to flood many areas permanaently, we can do nothing to stop it, humans will build better, stronger structures to avoid the desasterous effects of the worsened weather patterns, meterologists and tropical forecasters will become rich guys.
texascanecaster1

You're probably mostly right but I don't know about meteorologists and weather forecasters getting rich. Maybe they'll be tarred and feathered instead.
1150. Rick54
here da full bottom line of global warming:...

Or the deserts will expand, maybe crops will begin to fail in the Midwest (good chance we will never see an ethanol economy anyway) and our population will revert to a size equal to the carrying capacity of the Earth to support us.

The whole notion that technology can fix this mess is a joke. Sooner or later our economy and population are going to have to reverse if for no other reason the Earth and everything in it is finite. Just look at the pics taken from the moon.
tropics will remain at a depress rate of systems till that distubance at 41/51 which is pumping cold air downward over the mid atlantic all the way from the coast of greenland that is a strong northerly flow over the mid atlantic and from the looks of sat doesnt look to be movin any time soon
Aha!!! Cape Verde (CV)....Colombia/Venezuela (CV)...clearly evidence of the NHC conspiracy to...well....to do whatever it is they have been conspiring to do...
lots of fun on my blog right now. presslord please com on back luv your input.
Temp at 41026 is 81.1 degrees, the warmest it has been for days????
Posted By: presslord at 11:20 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.
to do whatever it is they have been conspiring to do...


Don't forget GW-as in G Dubya...
Thank you very much, MichaelSTL, for your detailed explanation.
The lower graphic in the post about the "false" SAL west of Mexico is quite impressive - such a great difference in SSTs on a relatively small area. La nina coming?

While I'm at it my thanks go to all of you experts, StormJunkie, Weather456, H2PV, IKE, texascanecaster, etc (can't remember all the names yet). I really appreciate your readiness to explain these complexe phenomena to laymen like me. This is one of the reasons why this site is so addictive.

I can go to sleep now with a good conscience since I've learnt something new today. ;-)
1158. LLJ
Saying the season will be busy is no worse than saying it won't be. What's the problem?
None of us will know till it's over anyway.
"But there is a huge gap between the SAL around the African coast and the one in the E-Pacific."

I think...
...two tropical waves started off the coast of Africa; one soon labeled Invest90L, which would become Dean. The tropical wave following Invest90L was suppressed by a dust storm coming off of Africa.
Remnants of that dust storm have been chasing after Dean ever since, though it was never fast enough to catch up before Dean's collapse.
Amystery, are you referring to me when you said KM, or kmanislander? I wouldn't think either of us call anyone names. It's true though, most here are idiots -- no actual data to back up what they say. Why should I provide what happened in the past to users like you, when you are going to ignore it and think you right, and that you are someone who is given the power of God to stop and form tropical cyclones at your will.

I'll gladly back up what I say with facts, but only if you will listen to it. I am not a person to waste my breath on people who won't listen, so don't expect me to provide every piece of data like STL does UNLESS you will listen.

And yes, it is true that the ones who say it'll be active get praise, and I guess that isn't fair. But all signs point to that. Dean just dissipated two days ago. Give it a freaking chance, my word. I will agree with LLJ that we don't know till the season is over.

If you are going to call it inactive, fine, but use facts. Unlike some people here, I'll listen to them.
Weather 101

Cold Core Lows (Upper Level Lows)

In comparison to its enviroment, this low is most intense and coldest in the upper troposphere. It is therefore weaker at lower levels and can be hard to find below 500 mb. Subisdence is confined to the center and low level lifting is found on the Eastern ppheriphy of the circulation. A line of cold low may comparise the tropical upper trospheric trough or TUTT for short.

W456

I'll list some characteristics of subtropical cyclones later.

hosweather: I actually like that graph. Pretty neat. Thanks.
1167. AinFLA
Posted By: KoritheMan at 11:46 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.
If you are going to call it inactive, fine, but use facts. Unlike some people here, I'll listen to them.



K'Man, agree with most of what you say but somehow the last bit of logic is flawed But by whom, I not sure.

How can one call it inactive before the fact. i.e. it ain't over til is over. No facts to prove it at the moment. Can't prove a negative.

Or, the correlary, how can one call it ACTIVE before the fact also. Not really any more facts to prove that either, til it's over.

And please, don't anybody on this blog point to any BS computer models. Because I'll blow you off in 2 seconds.

You are right on one thing, most, NOT ALL, are idiots. Most don't avail themselves of the basic information they have on hand and couldn't tell you which way the wind is blowing if it was spitting rain and dust in their face.

That particular low in the central ATL that people have been looking at / talking about all day is interesting in that it is forecast to remain more or less in the same place until at least next week Wed. Looks like it is jammed in between some highs and can't get out.

If we do get some development from the wave that's likely to come offshore tomorrow or Monday, wouldn't the presense of that low likely influence the new system to move north rather than west?
How can one call it inactive before the fact. i.e. it ain't over til is over. No facts to prove it at the moment. Can't prove a negative.

Or, the correlary, how can one call it ACTIVE before the fact also. Not really any more facts to prove that either, til it's over.


Well, you can prove an active season will likely (not will, but will LIKELY) take place by looking at the overall weather pattern both now and in the future. Also, years that have had similar conditions in the Atlantic were also quite active, like this one, and I'm sure people wrote that season off since a tropical cyclone didn't occur until relatively close to September after the first one formed. La Nia was present in 1999 as well, and this year has behaved similarly thus far, and has generally the same conditions as 1999 did. That's one fact you can use to say this season has a good chance to be active.

On the other hand, this year reminds me of 1993, because of the dates in which the storms up to the E storm formed. Not to say this will be like 1993, but it sure reminds me of it so far as far as formation dates go.

If we were to get an anomalous warming of the equatorial East Pacific this year (it would have to be a rapid warming), and had a neutral ENSO phase with a warm-bias or an El Nio, I would say this season will be inactive. However, there are no signs currently pointing to an El Nio this year, although there may be one in 2008, according to some models, but they are just models, and are not gospel.

At any rate, we have already had one big storm this year -- Dean, and it is the 9th most intense Atlantic hurricane on record. So this season is by no means a bust, nor is it over. There are likely going to be many more storms once the upward MJO pulse kicks in, and MJO won't make or break the season either, just help supress and/or ramp up activity.

It only takes one storm to make the season busy for the community affected. Tell the people affected by Dean it's been quiet -- they'd tell everyone real quick like it hasn't been.
Ok, Im back everyone. Anything new happening?
1171. ryang
Hey Extreme!

Nothing new tropical wise.
Hello folks. Love the banter on this blog. I am concerned that I sense a certain level of complacency about the season so far. As a long time weather fanatic and one who was lucky enough to be a met for some time, please allow me to throw in my 2 cents. The season so far has been forecast rather accurately by several long term forecasters. I will use the CSU forecast as I prefer the detailed discussion they offer. CSU forecast a slightly above August with 3 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 intense an above September with 5 storms and a very active October and November with 5 storms. They need 1 hurricane to verify August with 6 full days left. The reason for the slower start was the moderate levels of Saharan dust in June/July reducing SST's and increasing stability and inducing higher pressures over the Eastern Atlantic which has a residual effect for 1 to 2 months. They felt activity would increase in September since Eastern Atlantic SST's would reach their warmest point and upper atmospheric conditions would remain favorable. Then the developing La Nina would be the kicker for a very active Oct/Nov. The only reservation I have about the CSU forecast is the residual effects of the Saharan dust in the Eastern Atlantic which may have an impact further into the season and reduce the total number of storms by 1 or 2. Of more concern to me is the overall steering pattern across the Atlantic for storms that develop. The Atlantic ridge will undergo changes due to the gradual change of seasons but remain relatively strong. The central Atlantic trof will likely be weaker than normal with another trof developing over or near the East Coast between the Continental and Atlantic ridge. The depth and orientation of the weakness near the East Coast will largely determine how severe the impact will be on the US Coast. Of course, every season will have its share of fish storms and we can hope for the best. This season it appears there is a good chance for storms that form to come pretty far west before going fishing. So for those of you who want a storm, be careful what you wish for. For those of you who have become complacent, beware.
Posted By: ryang at 12:30 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.

Hey Extreme!

Nothing new tropical wise.


Ok. I was just looking over the page to see what everyone was talking about when I was gone. So, a few models develop that CV wave?
stormlvr, well said!
extreme236, where can I get an animated loop for that African wave? I can't seem to find one. I saw the CV wave via the tropical page on here, but I haven't seen a loop. Can you help?
The low that people have been talking about developing is the one just SW of the Cape Verdes. You can see it on my last posted link.

The only low I see in the central Atlantic is an extra-tropical storm above 40N. The ridge is forecast to build back in below this low.
Posted By: KoritheMan at 12:31 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.

extreme, you left for a few hours and are asking if anything new is happening? Isn't that kind of, eh...pointless? No offense, but it's just odd to me.


Yeah its kind of odd. But, you know how things can be in the tropics, they can change all the time. Blobs can pop up in a matter of hours lol. And we all know how fun blob watching is lol
Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change from the
WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones-November 2006
A good "talking points" summary if you wish to limit your GW discussion to tropical cyclones.
Link has surely been up here before. If so, sorry, here it is again.

Link
Posted By: KoritheMan at 12:35 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.

extreme236, where can I get an animated loop for that African wave? I can't seem to find one. I saw the CV wave via the tropical page on here, but I haven't seen a loop. Can you help?


Link

try this link. click on circled area you want to view the satillites on and then once you click on one of the circles you get a bunch of boxes of specific areas. click on the box that says west africa and you will get a bunch of images such as infrared. then you click the various java animations or whatever other loops it lets you open
Thanks, extreme.
stormlvr and extreme 236: I think that ridge is going to allow a storm to go near Florida and then on into the south. Also, go to weather.com and notice that parts of Arkansas have had no rain in 30 days. A little bit odd? Something's up sooner than later.
stormlvr

I don't see a lot of complacency. When Amystery suggested not too much activity going forward, he was jumped on pretty good.
Amystery was jumped on because she said things without really backing them up. She said that if we dont get any storms by a certain time it will be below average season, which isnt true. She also seemed to think she knew for sure what was going to happen.
Posted By: KoritheMan at 12:44 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.

Thanks, extreme.


Your welcome :)
extreme236

Anyway, not what I would call complacency.
Oh, I never said she was complacent. I was just why people were jumping on her
I realize this is purely anectodal...but....Hugo didn't come thru here til late Sept....so don't tell me it's over til it's over....
And I was looking up when the "F" named storm has developed since 2000, and it has developed in either late august or early september, so were right around where we have been for several years, with the exception of 2005, which was wacko
List of when the named storm beginning with "F" developed since 2000:

2000: September 10th
2001: September 7th
2002: September 5th
2003: August 25th
2004: August 25th
2005 (outlier): July 21st
2006: September 3rd
That is a big surface low south of the Cape Verdes. I don't see anything likely to disrupt its development other than the next wave coming off W Afr. Looks really good to go.
well at the rate both of those african waves are moving, I dont think they would disrupt each other much, unless one got much stronger than the other, then one of them would be disrupted
come on baby...don't get too far from 15N.
the sfc analysis shows the low pressure about to come off africa at 20N. Although, I dont think it is associated with the wave about to come off.
"Posted By: boobless at 12:37 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.

Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change from the
WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones-November 2006
A good "talking points" summary if you wish to limit your GW discussion to tropical cyclones.
Link has surely been up here before. If so, sorry, here it is again."

Talk about wishcasting.

The low res models show substantially weaker simulated models and the high res only show some increase in intensity. Where the relationship to SST's have been examined the relationship dependence is much weaker.

So they deduce from that their models are flawed/broken and they go on to predict an increase in cyclone intensity.

Someone wanted their funding on that one.
so has a blob alert been issued yet
Lat25
Only posted to apply focus to some central issues.
Let the debate rage...from there.
However I totally agree with your cynicism and real world view of research.
]
OK comrades...out Charleston weather teasers just siad: we're gonna wake up to big surprise tomorrow AM" details @ 11...blah...blah...blah...What could that be about?
"Posted By: boobless at 1:24 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.

Lat25
Only posted to apply focus to some central issues.
Let the debate rage...from there.
However I totally agree with your cynicism and real world view of research."

If you read it, you see where they contradict themselves.

Our research is based on models....

....our models are flawed because they don't agree with what we want them to say

...we are going to override what our models say and make up our own predictions.

edit; I added something to try and make what I wanted to say clearer. ;-)
Another question from a newbie; Is there a consensus of opinion as far as when the peak of hurricane season is? Does the peak have anything to do with La Nina, or El Nino? Hopefully I will become educated and can show off my knowledge to my friends.
Ok, well there is a wave that will be coming off africa shortly, and there is a wave south and SW of the CV islands worth watching.
Then let's add that to the "central focus" list.
A comparison of the GFS and CMC models on the the CV low is very interesting. Both show similar development over the next 60 hours at which time the disturbance is at about 40W. At that time there is an interaction with something (I don't know what) that causes the two models to begin a 180 degree divergence. GFS has the low in steady decline from that point on whereas CMC shows rapid development. Anyone have any ideas about what it is that is causing the model divergence.
season peak is normally between aug 25 sept 25 after sept 25 u are more or less winding the season down with the fall season in full swing
Wave on africa looks... decent. Fairly concentrated amount of thunderstorm activity with it, we'll have to see how it takes to the sea.

Link

Also interesting is that there is a 1003mb low associated with this system, is it an upper, mid or low level Low? Here's a map;

1207. Drakoen
Posted By: stormyjm at 1:25 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.

Another question from a newbie; Is there a consensus of opinion as far as when the peak of hurricane season is? Does the peak have anything to do with La Nina, or El Nino? Hopefully I will become educated and can show off my knowledge to my friends.


The peak doesnt have anything to do with la nina or el nino, although they both either enhance storms or supress them. La nina, enhances storm activity and usually leads to a more active late season. While, El Nino, supresses activity, creating a less active season. 2006 was an el nino year
And the official peak of the hurricane season is September 10th or 11th, its one of those days
well if that extratropical low in the north atlantic all of a sudden magically became tropical (just kidding) then it would already be a tropical storm. QS shows winds of at least 40mph
Haven't seen anything from Dr. Masters... I hope he wasn't adversely affected by the severe weather in and around Michigan.

Well, if he did, hopefully he came through it OK (Obviously he's seen severe weather before :)) and can tell us about it.

Here's a report of some of the issues in and around Flint, MI today. Storm Report

Interestingly enough, that's one of the few places I ever tried to storm chase... I recommend leaving that to professionals... Or at least make sure you have good doppler radar with you... One word of advice... don't drive through the storm looking for tornadoes.

I was having quite a bit of trouble seeing even before the hail started... It gives someone from California like me new respect for those little red and purple areas on the radar that show up in other states.

When I realized how screwed I was, it took me about 20 minutes to go 1 more mile to the next freeway exit and go back to my hotel.
Drakoen

I posted this linkLinkearlier. According to the barbs, the low off the coast looks much better organized than any of the activity still on the continent. Any thoughts on the divergence of the GFS and CMC models that I referred to in my last post?
1213. Drakoen
There is just cyclonic turning with the CV wave. I'm more interested with the wave on Africa that may already have a low-mid level circulation.
Is there a certain exit point off Africa where the waves are more likely to develop?
"Posted By: boobless at 1:24 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.

Lat25
Only posted to apply focus to some central issues.
Let the debate rage...from there.
However I totally agree with your cynicism and real world view of research."

Sorry to beat the horse, but I had to sit here and read that paper you linked again. I really didn't believe it.

That is where some of the people posting on this blog heard that the intensity of cyclones will increase with global warming. This is from the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones from just last year.

The models that didn't predict what they wanted them to predict, they threw those models out! Talk about padding your bets. They only used the data from the models that fit their agenda.
Drakoen

"just cyclonic turning" Explain please. Aren't all hurricanes and typhoons "just cyclonic turning". What in your opinion makes the rather disorganized circulation on the continent a better candidate for development than the closed low level circulation off the coast?
i kinda like that swirl at 25,57 low convection but strong counter clockwize cirulation put on ir loop fast
1218. msphar
Sweet:

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
Another question from a newbie; Is there a consensus of opinion as far as when the peak of hurricane season is? Does the peak have anything to do with La Nina, or El Nino?

From what I have seen, El Nino tends to suppress activity not just all season, but especially in the latter half, when storms tend to develop in the Caribbean, thus leading to an earlier peak in activity, while La Nina enhances Caribbean activity, leading to a later peak in activity (not always; 1995 was pretty active all season, though that was very likely not due to La Nina alone because the August-October Nino 3.4 anomaly was only -0.5, which is borderline). Both 1997 and 2006 had quite a bit of activity in June and July, above normal in fact, but little to no activity after September. It has also been found that ENSO affects where storms tend to develop and where they tend to go:

One of the researchers today -- and since the conference is "off the record" I am going to withhold names -- presented fairly compelling evidence that a La Nina is particularly bad for the Gulf Coast and Mexico. The scientist broke down storms in the Atlantic basin into three groups:

Cluster A: Storms that form out in the Atlantic and typically curve into the Eastern U.S. or back out into the ocean.
Cluster B: Storms that form between the Canary Islands and Florida, and generally strike Florida or the Gulf Coast.
Cluster C: Storms that form in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, and impact the Gulf Coast from Mexico to Florida.

Based on the talk, during La Nina years, two bad things tend to happen for Texas. First of all, according to graphics shown at the conference, the paths of Cluster C storms shift westward, so instead of hitting Florida or even curving back into the Atlantic, they hit Mexico or southern Texas. The Bay of Campeche is incredibly active.

Secondly, the activity in Cluster C blows up during La Nina years.

By way of comparison, for "Cluster A" storms in recent decades, 52 storms formed during El Nino years and 39 during La Nina years. For "Cluster C" storms -- which are much more likely to strike Texas -- the opposite is true. Just 36 storms formed during El Nino years, versus 56 during La Nina.

One final thing: historical trends suggest not only an increased number of storms during La Nina, but that the storms which form tend to be stronger.
1221. Drakoen
Posted By: hosweather at 2:10 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.

Drakoen

"just cyclonic turning" Explain please. Aren't all hurricanes and typhoons "just cyclonic turning". What in your opinion makes the rather disorganized circulation on the continent a better candidate for development than the closed low level circulation off the coast?


Just cyclonic turning meaning that the stratocumulus clouds are turning but it isn't focused on a point. Tonights QuickSat indicated some turning but no closed low. I'm not necessarily greatly interested in one more than the other just a slight increase in interest because 90L, had a mid level circulation before it came of the coast; like this wave coming of the coast.
keeper

That swirl seems to be the southern end of a weak trough anchored by the strong storm to its northeast. GFS has it moving northeast to get closer to its mama.
And Lat25,
Just to keep things friendly, I shoulda known you would want to start withe the last item on list. lol
Drakoen

Thanks. The link I posted with the model overlay seems to show a closed low level circulation. I did not check the QuickSat but models must give way to real data. hos
Comparing this season with 1980.

A couple of interesting parallels:

1) A weak La Nina (-0.1 -- -0.3)

2) A protracted heatwave in the SE US supported
by an large ridge. (594 hts)

The ridge in 1980 kept hurricane Allen (Cat 5)
well to the south with landfall around the
Tex/Mex border as was the case with Dean.

The rest of the '80 season was mostly fish spinning due to troughing over the W ATL.
Interesting to note here that over the last several runs, the GFS has been persistent in
developing a troughing patern over the E CONUS and W ATL.

1980

Having said all that, I think Felix will ba a "Floyd".
Posted By: Kowaliga at 2:37 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.
Comparing this season with 1980...
...the GFS has been persistent in
developing a troughing patern over the E CONUS and W ATL...

I would not be unhappy with a recurver.
May be too far S if this occurs? Miss the trough. Then meander into an area of week steering.
GW isnt fake, lol. I thought everyone knew that
Kowaliga

Interesting to note here that over the last several runs, the GFS has been persistent in
developing a troughing patern over the E CONUS and W ATL.


While the GFS has showed breaks in the Atlantic ridge, they have not been persistent. Over the next two weeks, the GFS pattern looks very menacing. If a CV storm does develop in the near term it is quite likely to make landfall somewhere on the North American continent.
ITS ALL FAKE GLOBAL WARMING WAS CREATED TO SCARE PEOPLE, FAKE

couldnt say that better myself
so, where is the spot of interest tonight in the atlantic?
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters


ooops you for got dr m
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters


ooops you for got dr m


yup sure did lol
boobless
hosweather


I concede if there's a big ramp-up in the CV (which the GFS is hinting in week two) something will sneak through sooner or later.

DID YOU KNOW -- Jacksonville has not had a direct strike since 1984!? Straddling the St. Johns River it would be Florida's own New Orleans!!!
Posted By: Tazmanian at 3:33 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters


ooops you for got dr m


Taz,
You should see if you can write his blog and be guest blogger like Margie then since he forgot.
good thinking 03
has a blob alert been issued yet
he didnt forget there was nuttin out there
Posted By: KEEPEROFTHEGATE at 3:46 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.
has a blob alert been issued yet


THE NHC HAS ISSUED A BLOB ALERT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BLOB SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UNITED STATES CURRENTLY SITTING AT HIS COMPUTER, STARING AT A SCREEN AND BLOGGING ON WEATHER UNDERGROUND. ALTHOUGH THIS BLOB IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, SOME BREATHING AND POSTING MAY BE POSSIBLE.
roflmao
Just had to wake you guys up... LOL
Blobs not dead yet. It and me. ]QuikScat
On a serious note, what do ya'll think about that one area over Africa about to enter the Atlantic? Any chance for development. It appears it will exit above the ITCZ. Of course, I don't have my contacts in, so I could be seeing things.
blob alert
Is it a fleshy blob or is it weather related? The only blobs I want to hear about need to be weather related.
got to wait see what happens over the seait appears they are being dragged into the itzc
All this talk about GW on here earlier... I though ya'll were talking about Bush... Then I realized hmmmm.... GW = Global Warming. That's a discussion I will stay out of 'cause I have my own opinions.
Posted By: hosweather at 1:31 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.

A comparison of the GFS and CMC models on the the CV low is very interesting. Both show similar development over the next 60 hours at which time the disturbance is at about 40W. At that time there is an interaction with something (I don't know what) that causes the two models to begin a 180 degree divergence. GFS has the low in steady decline from that point on whereas CMC shows rapid development. Anyone have any ideas about what it is that is causing the model divergence.


CMC always shows rapid development, lol. GFS had stellar short term performance with Dean, I would follow that until proven wrong. Both are global forcasting models, not hurricane specific, and require a more in depth look than glancing at a low on the MSLP. You need to examine all the features of the model to determine if it is accurate or not.
Haven't been online tonight, but not for lack of interest.
Power went out...with the sun out! How's that fair? Don't we even get a storm to go with it? LOL! When the electric came back on, the wireless didn't. Our call to Tech Support got outsourced to "Harry" in India, who had us unplug and replug all the same things we had already unplugged and replugged and it still didn't come up.
So we had to wait until our son came over and discovered that the router had reset itself. After he changed a 0.1 to 1.1, we were back up and running.
So I definitely prefer our In(house)source to the outsourcing.
Anyway, how are the blobs tonight?
like the tropics i too am going asleep later all
listenerVT: There's a wave south of CV that has a low with it, or so some people have said. I have not looked at QuikSCAT, so I don't know, but it's something to watch. The wave about to come off should be watched too.
Thanks KoritheMan!

Was just off checking the loops and looking at the Western Hemisphere Global Satellite.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/westernhemisphereglobalsatellite_large.html
Said blob doesn't look too exciting yet.
At least the power didn't go out (here) during Dean, eh?
Sweet dreams, Keeper! :~)
TheCaneWhisperer

All the models performed well on Dean in the short term. GFS was truly outstanding in identifying Dean when he was still way out over Africa. Contrast this with NOGAPS which was still denying Dean when he had his ritual naming.

All I was wondering was whether anyone with more experience than I have in interpreting models could identify what it is the models see interacting with the wave at about 40W that causes the models to diverge so sharply at that point.
Hosweather,
Maybe...one keeps it in the slower mid level moist flow at or near 15N now. The other drives it south to the rip-roaring ITCZ??
Do I need to post my Blob Alert again...?
I think it is interesting about the year that had a strong system go south with a strong SE high followed by mostly 'fish storms', however lets not forget where the GFS originally had Dean headed...Florida. WAY further north than what it really did, so we cant really trust any track this far into the future, let alone development. All we can really get an idea of is an increase in waves moving off the coast of Africa.
Alright fire.
I'm done. The CAPS dit it.
I will turn off and in.
Thanks ]
Aw come on, boob. Don' leave now. There's possible waves out there...
boobless at 4:34 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.
Hosweather,
Maybe...one keeps it in the slower mid level moist flow at or near 15N now. The other drives it south to the rip-roaring ITCZ??


The ITCZ could be part of it. The CMC has the more southerly track and really slows down the westward movement of the system past 40W. This would keep the system in a moister environment for a longer time. I expect that the GFS has the system being slowly sheared to death after 40W but I don't see where the shear is coming from.
fire831rescue

LOL! LOL! LOL!

Well, this little blob, which emerged late evening, is about to disperse for the night. Conditions indicate strong likelihood that this blog will reemerge tomorrow. Stay tuned for further postings.

With all this worry about blobs, I had to do something. People were starting to panic...
I think this blob is dissipating for the evening, as well. Possible regeneration and strengthening is expected for tomorrow, as well as, throughout the rest of the 2007 season. Goodnight, Ya'll.
1270. LLJ
A 1006mb low associated with an emerging wave at a high latitude off the African coast....yeah, watching.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

1271. msphar
LLJ where do you get that chart ?
1273. LLJ
There wil be some serious repositioning of the EATL after this one emerges. It's too close to the previous wave. Might even cause a perturbance in the ITCZ. 60 hours after emergence......see what happens then.
1274. msphar
um, that looks like a noaa chart, dadecosurf.com doesn't look like the basic source, do you understand the relationship between these two ? ie is there a more direct access to that chart ?
1275. LLJ
msphar...If it doesn't suit you....rip up your own search for a better one.
LLJ, look at the previous 3 analyses and there is no movement of that low, or in other words, its stationary. Is it REALLY going to move out off the coast?
1277. LLJ
This surface chart is from the TAFB...ie NHC. Anytime you want this surface forecast....please visit the NHC site and click on the surface analysis within the discussion. I think you will find it to be the same as the previous chart I posted....but harder to read.

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1278. LLJ
Lows are most always present with waves about to emerge. Usually the low dissipates after hitting the ocean. This one may or may not be one to watch. But I am.
1279. LLJ
The wave behind the front one is deeper:

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1280. LLJ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONFINED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 9N-13N
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IS UNIMPRESSIVE THE UW-CIMSS TPW ANIMATION DEPICTS
A PRONOUNCED AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THIS ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THE MOISTURE SURGE FLATTENING
IN STRUCTURE OVER TIME POSSIBLY DUE TO A SAHARAN DUST SURGE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
TURNING CLEARLY APPARENT ON NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES...THOUGH
STILL WELL EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS DID
INDICATE SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS THOUGH NOT
AS DEFINED AS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DRIFT WINDS...SUGGESTING
MUCH OF THE PRESENCE IS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
TURNING HAS BEEN PERSISTING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED NEAR
THIS WEAK WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. THIS
WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH THE POSITION BASED ON FORWARD
EXTRAPOLATION WHICH MATCHES UP WITH A BIT OF CURVATURE EVIDENT
IN SFC OBS AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS.

THE NRN PORTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 25N93W THRU 19N96W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRES...ANALYZED 1008 MB NEAR
21N95W...FORMED EARLIER TODAY. THIS LOW HAS GENERALLY BECOME
LESS DEFINED WITH ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR IT. NO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE WAVE STILL SHOWS UP FAIRLY
WELL IN BUOY DATA AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LOW IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE S
GULF...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N33W 11N49W 9N62W. BESIDES
FOR THE CONVECTION DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
41W-44W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 11N-14N E OF 18W LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.

1281. msphar
Thanks LLJ, got it now. It will be a big help.
1282. LLJ
Anytime msphar....There's thousands of links.
1283. msphar
You are so right about that. Checking out for the night. Thanks again.
1284. KRL
Let's be optimists, LOL, 2/3rds of the ice caps are still there.

:)
1285. KRL
Posted By: tornadodude at 3:30 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.
ITS ALL FAKE GLOBAL WARMING WAS CREATED TO SCARE PEOPLE, FAKE

couldnt say that better myself


Indeed a lot of people, especially politicians, are jumping on the GW bandwagon with an agenda, and I think they're all off base saying its humans causing GW, but the fact is the global climate is on a warming trend, whatever is really at the heart of it.
The last 3 winters here we get less snow.(N.C)

Texas floods.

South-East goes in a extreme drought.

Mid-West floods.

Hurricanes are much stronger/more of them.




I believe in GW.
Going to bed.Be back when I can.School starts Monday for me.I think we could get a invest off the African coast this coming week.Auguast 27 to the 2 of September.
morning
is the rotation at 8N 43W a pertabation in the ITCZ?
1289. IKE
Tropical weather outlook for planet earth....

"Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours."

96 days left in the Atlantic season and it's over.
Happy Sunday to All!

This image was taken 1100 UTC today



Source
well after reading the TWD, the nhc seems still impressed with the structure of the wave at 52W with the cyclonic turning at the sfc, although they are saying how convection is limited
A naked swirl ESE of Barbados, put it in animation

And the Atlantic title is still held by this non tropical low (or extratopical low)

With the polor ice cap shrinking and a rise in temps all over the place. It reminds me of a movie i have seen a few times. Could there be some truth in that "movie" ???
Posted By: groundman at 8:27 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.

Posted By: MissBennet at 7:59 PM GMT on August 25, 2007.
P.S. and this is the last I'll say on the subject. The only reason I know this stuff, is becuase my husband is an environmental lawyer, sueing the Oil, coal, and chemical companies for causing global warming, that caused Katrina and other intense hurricanes. .........................

I'm sorry but WHERE are people getting the money for legal suits like this?? From a movie?? ......

.....I don't mean to jump on you MissBennet and I know your husband just does what he is told, I would defend mine too even though he can be annoying. LOL


No offence taken Ground. As to your, his boss made millions (and I do mean lots of millions) on asbestos litigation in his youth, so he's footing the bill from that windfall for this litigation.
236, If the NHC is impressed with that naked swirl that contains no convection then it looks as if they are grasping for things to talk about.
It is quiet out there.
"Posted By: boobless at 2:26 AM GMT on August 26, 2007.

And Lat25,
Just to keep things friendly, I shoulda known you would want to start withe the last item on list. lol"

I have no idea what that means.
well they are a little impressed with it. if it had a good amount of convection, we could be staring at an invest right now
the dry air is choking off all the convection, although when it enters the caribbean, there isnt much dry air
Posted By: extreme236 at 1:06 PM GMT on August 26, 2007.

the dry air is choking off all the convection, although when it enters
the caribbean, there isnt much dry air

If it survives....
I did catch Dr. Lyons last hour. He said that in the western gulf needs to me "monitored". The llc is on the coast of Mexico but storms are building over the mid-level circulation. And it is expected to drift northward towards Texas.

theres a reasonabley well organized low pressure system about to leave the african coast this morning. this is probably the most important thing to watch. lets see what it does when it gets over water.
Hey Texas, are any of the computer models jumping on that low?
Hey guys. Niceley organizd tropical desiturbgance with a closed surface low is located north of south america in the western-central carribean this morning. I dont think nhc will call it td unless it moves north cause of proximity to land. However if it does move north make no mistake it will become tropical depression 7. I failed to notice this thing last night but it is far more than a blob its spining and its got a sfc low already.
Yes i noticed that disturbance off the South american coast. this may be the thing the models have been hinting at developing in the SW caribbean
the disturbance at this time appears to be moving NW. and TCC it would be named TD6, not 7 lol. not quite there yet
where did you find out it had a sfc low at TCC?
Tropical Atlantic

A weakening upper low (NE-NNE of the leeward island) is moving into the North Atlantic with little shower actvity rotating around the low.

The surface Bermuda-Azores ridge is analysed on two highs - 1021 mb near 33N/55W and 1035 mb high near 53N/18W. This ridge is producing a large area of moderate trades and fair weather over most of the Tropical Atlantic north of 10N west of 30W with only stable air stratocumulus seen embedded in the tradewind flow. A fair amount of dry air and subsidence is also adding to the stability.

Based on visible imagery, 315K PV charts and 700 mb winds and vorticity, a tropical wave is estimated to be near 55-56W south of 18N moving west at 10-15 knots. This wave continues to exhibit clear cyclonic turning in the low levels of the atmosphere but not as pronounce at the surface a indicated by QUIKSCAT and 925-1000 HPA vorticity analysis.

The little shower activity associated with this feature is confined to the ITCZ.

A possible tropical wave near 42W-44W south of 20N indicated by a clearly inverted ITCZ in satellite imagery. Light to moderate convection within 150 NM either side the possible axis, but again confine to the ITCZ.

A third wave is near 25-27W based on visible imagery which shows a broad area of cyclonic turning just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This can be backed up by looking at any vorticity charts and African Jet Analysis. ROABS from Dakar, Senegal showed the passage of the wave near the 23rd with the wind veering from northeast to southeast near 850 mb. This also showed that another wave may coming off Africa as indicated by a surge of northeasterlies on the 25th.

by W456



no convection, but definitely a circulation...... but until it moves west into some moisture, just a dry spin......
Caribbean Sea

The upper flow west of 75W is advecting moisture from activity in the Bay of Campeche into the Western Caribbean and with some help from a tropical near 88-89W, scattered high clouds with embedded showers are over the area. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure in association with the ITCZ is producing vigorous convection over Northern South America. There is evidence of cyclonic turning with this feature but it is too early to speculate as there has always been a climatological circulation around this area. Is this what the CMC model was picking up on in the Southwest Caribbean? Only time can tell. The environment around this area is not all that conducive for development but an area to watch if the CMC is correct.

Fair weather is noted elsewhere over the Eastern Caribbean. However, a combination of tradewind moisture and some southwesterly upper moisture from South America will inducing periods of scattered passing showers over the Islands. Expect light to moderate trades over the islands, a bit gusty in showers.

by W456
Dr. Lyons just said if the low pressure in the GOM can stay over water for another day or two, then a tropical depression could develop. he also said that once the ULL that is affecting the sfc low off the South American coast moves away, then it could develop as well.
and that naked swirl east of the antilles will move into a more moist enviroment in about 24-48 hrs
As of now the area in the SW Caribbean looks to have the greater chance if the wind shear relaxes and if it moves away from the landmass of SA.
Hello all i havent been on for a while due to the inactivity in the Atlantic basin...But what caused me to sign on this morning is to notice that Jeff Masters hasent been on..when he was supposed to update his blog yesterday...I hope nothing bad happened.
In my opinion it isnt inactive in the basin. Although there are no named storms, we have a few disturbances worth watching over the next couple days
1316. msphar
goose eggs across the globe and peace in the southeast north atlantic, whats not to love.
Agree NaturalDisaster... Hopefully the worst he's experienced from the tornado outbreak in Michigan is a little power outage or something.

We should get a detailed account of whatever he did go through when he gets back I'd say.
Hello All Good morning =) Are there any models attached to the carribean blob surface low and where would it go if it formed .................. Thank you if u answer my question
Morning All! Rainy day here in the Gardens.

My thoughts below

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the CMC is the model that appears to develop the sfc low in the SW caribbean, but the cmc was correct on Erin. Also, the sfc low in the gulf needs to be watched to see if it can develop before it makes landfall. Also, a fairly potent low pressure system will be coming off africa which needs to be watched
Shear tendency map shows shear is decreasing in the sfc low's near future in the SW caribbean, so due to its slow movement it will be a somewhat favorable enviroment after that, but then the enviroment gets less favorable.
1322. IKE
Steve Lyons just gave his tropical update...the low in the SW GOM should move into NE Mexico...may bring some showers/TS to extreme south Texas.

The system coming off of SA is not at the surface...no development expected.

The Atlantic and the east PAC are quiet.

Now...go out and have a great Sunday.
lol Ike and you know what the funny things is? Just an hour ago he said the GOM low could develop, and there was a sfc low in the SW caribbean lol
1324. IKE
I heard him say the disturbed weather coming off of SA was not at the surface.
TWC must have been like..."You cant say things like that Doctor! We cant worry people! Wait till it develops before you talk like that! Tell people to take that cruise that our secret cruise line sponsors want us to get people to take!
Yes Ike that is what he said, it was not at the sfc and the ULL dragged the convection out into the caribbean. and an hour ago he said the ULL dragged a sfc low off the coast
The real weather is in So Cal today. ^_^...

That is moisture out there not Faulse Echos

If rain does fall today it would be the first time since

APRIL 22nd 2007 for most areas and some
April 20th 2007
1329. LSU
TWC must have been like..."You cant say things like that Doctor! We cant worry people! Wait till it develops before you talk like that! Tell people to take that cruise that our secret cruise line sponsors want us to get people to take!

I know, how crazy of TWC to not forecast a category 5 hitting the gulf coast every time a thunderstorm shows up in the Atlantic. I can't believe they acctually want him to accurately forecast the tropics.
1330. lilmax
Yet another far out GFS storm I guess. Check the latest run.
Posted By: LSU at 3:03 PM GMT on August 26, 2007.

TWC must have been like..."You cant say things like that Doctor! We cant worry people! Wait till it develops before you talk like that! Tell people to take that cruise that our secret cruise line sponsors want us to get people to take!

I know, how crazy of TWC to not forecast a category 5 hitting the gulf coast every time a thunderstorm shows up in the Atlantic. I can't believe they acctually want him to accurately forecast the tropics.


lol. I just find it funny how he changed what he said about the SW caribbean in just an hour. Its almost as if he's not allowed to say anything about it.
any one seen the dr m? its been 2 days
That activity off the California coast maybe the remnants of Dean.
Yep, it is the remnants of Dean
1335. Drakoen
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.5N 17.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.08.2007 12.5N 17.1W WEAK

00UTC 29.08.2007 12.9N 18.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.08.2007 15.7N 19.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.08.2007 16.4N 21.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.08.2007 18.2N 23.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2007 19.4N 25.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.08.2007 19.7N 29.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.09.2007 20.1N 31.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
yes weather456 it is the remnants of Dean are Area forecast discussion been saying lots about activity comeing up from what u to be Dean
rea forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
405 am PDT sun Aug 26 2007


Discussion...
seasonable weather over norcal for the next couple of days before temperatures
warm several degrees above normal through at least the middle of the
week over much of the interior of norcal. The temperate weather regime
today is due to a vorticity maximum vicinity of 42n/130w maintaining the upper
trough pattern over the Pacific northwest and norcal today...and the associated
onshore flow. Onshore gradients continue to be moderately strong
resulting in a strong Delta breeze with gusts 31 kts at ksuu at 09z.
Feet Ord profiler indicates marine layer has deepened slightly to
about 2800 feet...with the 00z sun koak sounding suggesting it is
around 2000 feet. With the deepening marine layer...continued
moderately strong onshore flow...and the upper trough over the Pacific northwest
coast and norcal lowering 500 mbs heights about 5 dam through 12z
Monday...we look for cooling maximum temperatures again today. The upper trough is
forecast to move through the Pacific northwest and norcal by Monday afternoon...and the
onshore gradients should decrease. This should weaken the Delta
breeze allowing for slight a slight warming trend. Models continue
to struggle with the amount of middle-high level moisture from remnants
of hrcn Dean that may advect into norcal. 06z sun runs from the
NAM/GFS have backed off on the amount of moisture that works its way
this far north. Water vapor imagery shows the vorticity maximum spinning northward from
30n/120w around the periphery of the high center over the desert SW
which is spreading the leading edge of the moisture to around kmce.
However...the bulk of the moisture will likely become shunted southward
and eastward by the northern vorticity maximum /vcnty 42n130w/ and the upper level
trough. The flow over norcal will become southwesterly and more confluent due
to the upper trough to the north and the flow around the high over the
desert SW. The will keep the moisture from spreading well northward into
our forecast area today. This is best depicted in our sky grids
where an image/ picture describes the situation better than a
worded forecast.


Looks like the 06z sun GFS backs the middle level flow to the southeast more
so than in previous runs as the vorticity maximum from 30n/120w lifts northward
towards Tahoe on Tuesday...then up The Spine of the Sierra Nevada north of Tahoe
through 18z Wednesday. This scenario would give the west side of the Sierra Nevada a
better chance of thunderstorms than the predominantly southwesterly flow
forecast by previous runs. Will hold off on mention of thunder in
our County Warning Area until we see some model continuity at this time. Maximum temperatures
are expected to trend upward through the middle of the week with
triple digits in much of the Central Valley Wednesday/Thursday as the desert SW
high expands into norcal. A cooling trend is expected by next
weekend as southwesterly flow and onshore gradients increase as a series of
troughs approach/move through the Pacific northwest. Jhm

Posted By: Drakoen at 3:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2007.

Link? Thanks
NaturalDisaster and iahishome ~

I've been having similar thoughts.
Hoping all good things for Dr. Masters.

We lost power last night for awhile and had trouble getting the wireless back up even after the electric was on. (Router had reset itself.)

I suspect that if the issue at hand is going to last over-long, he'll find a way to call upon someone to fill in for him for a few days.
the nhc may make this a STS at post season

This may be a stupid question but what if we overcorrect global warming and make it to cold
so Dean made it to California, what a trip all the way from Ethiopia.
hey Drak what model is that, which forecasts a cyclone? And where at?
1344. Drakoen
Posted By: Weather456 at 3:17 PM GMT on August 26, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 3:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2007.

Link? Thanks


Based on the UKMET model.
Link
Watch the GOM.
Trough digging down across texas
Upper low now drifting back E
Activity in the BOC as others have noted.

Maybe a good chance the SE CONUS will get some rain today.
the blob of convection in the south BoC looks fairly well organized. the blob off the SA coast also looks better organized than it did a few hours ago.
1347. IKE
NEW BLOG!