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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

One more named storm for '07?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:38 PM GMT on December 29, 2007

OK, here we go one more time in '07! A non-tropical low pressure system dubbed Invest 95L, near 27N 38W, way out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, has cut off from the jet stream and is beginning to acquire tropical characteristics as it sits nearly stationary over waters of 22-23° C. Satellite imagery shows a curved band of heavy thunderstorms arcing 3/4 of the way around the large center of circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds of 30-35 mph in this band. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 95L, and this shear is expected to be 20-30 knots for the next two days, which may be low enough to allow the storm to develop into a subtropical storm before the year is out. The storm would be called Subtropical Storm Pablo, since the strongest winds are well removed from the center, and the system does not have a fully warm core.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Invest 95L in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

The four reliable computer models all predict little movement of 95L for the remainder of 2007, then a track to the west-southwest towards Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on New Year's Day. Wind shear is forecast to rise to prohibitively high levels by January 1, so it is highly unlikely this storm will survive to affect any land areas.

I'll have an update by Sunday evening if this storm hangs together.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks for the update Jeff. Monitoring the system closely.
Wow. I've been so busy tracking my winter storm that I haven't been tracking this. Thanks for the update.
The NHC is running the GFDL on the system. Things could get interesting. The models are in strong consensus.
thanks for the update......but isn't there any new info.
thanks doc it appears to have moved a little north of last night loc of 26.4n/38.3w it appears to have moved to 27n/37.9w slighly north and east of previous loc
Sometimes it would nice for someone to leave a message on the old blog.

Thanks
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS THE DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR 27N38W. THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN A COUPLE OF BANDS
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. QUIKSCAT WINDS SUGGEST THAT
THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND SE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THAT SEEMS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MOST OF THE COMMON TYPE OF
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW WITH CIRCULATION
EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS IS THE CASE. ACCORDING TO
THE UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS...VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THIS LOW-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY
ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES
IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS OR SO. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCES MOVE THIS SYSTEM TO THE
SW ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS.
well the NHC has some new info..and much clearer
Satellite imagery shows some more significant convection developing just east of the low. Very good structure for a subtropical system.
maybe they will name at 5.....
if you look at SSD sat it shows convection developing to the south
can a wraparound eye form or does it have to be convection first?
Convection is trying to develop closer to the center.

Link
i actually want this to be a sts!
17. JRRP
LOOKS LIKE TS OLGA
it could tc but it would make a bald forecaster at noaa have hair again from the shock lolz
the navy do not have 95l as an invest...... interesting lolz
Its the reminents of Karen!
:o)
lol lake

how long till 5pm nhc time?
Ya know---it actually is looking pretty tropical and organized to me. More tropical-looking than Barry ever did--at least in my opinion.
I wanted to know as that is what it looks like is happening it is becoming one of those weird hurricanes that have a large eye in relation to its convection
It looks like a hurricane. But all subtropical systems do...
This storm also reminds me of Epsilon and Vince.
25. weatherblog 6:27 PM GMT on December 29, 2007 Hide this comment.
This storm also reminds me of Epsilon and Vince.
Action: | Ignore User



that is exactly what it reminds me of
...CORRECTION TO INTRODUCE SPECIAL FEATURE...

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS THE DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR 27N38W. THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN A COUPLE OF BANDS
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. QUIKSCAT WINDS SUGGEST THAT
THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND SE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THAT SEEMS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE MOST COMMON TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW WITH CIRCULATION EXTENDING TO
THE SURFACE...AS IN THIS CASE. ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS
PRODUCTS...VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT
THIS LOW-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO BEFORE STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH
THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MEANDER IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OR SO. SOME OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCES MOVE THIS SYSTEM TO THE SW ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY
TIME.
Mid-Level sinking and subsidence cuzes substorms to have eye-like features.

Next possible NHC adv at 2100 UTC or 3PM CST/4 pm EST/5PM AST
Compare Subtropical Storm ANDREA, before its naming Link with this 95L today Link

I have been looking for high resolution images about 95L but I haven't found them. I think any satellite (TERRA & AQUA) have crossed over it today ???

Well... We'll be waiting for more wind data. The last quikSCAT pass was at 17:33 UTC, showing 30-35 KT windbarbs... Enough for labeling 95L as a subtropical depression. I would say that there is not doubt about that...

See you!
I have been looking for high resolution images about 95L but I haven't found them. I think any satellite (TERRA & AQUA) have crossed over it today ???

Terra hasnt caught it...let me check Aqua.
CMC forcast for the storm.

Link
No luck with Aqua..Its has a big gap between the Equator and Atlantic Canada.

BBL
You know the CMC forecasted this first as well this is getting interesting anything in January you think?
it could become a subtropical cyclone at anytime that would make the 16th named storm for the season.
Convection near the center is attempting to build.

Link
so much for this season not being active we are getting up there for the year
12Z GFDL doesn't do anything with the storm.

Link
im hopeing thell initiate advisorys asap
Epsilon 2005:


Vince 2005:


Delta 2005:


Zeta 2005:


95L/Pablo 2007:


All similiar to 95L.
95L, to my Eyes is Exactly how i saw Zeta 4 hours before Formation.
i agree!
If anyone is wondering..the Navy havnt updated any info for any storm since 0900 UTC this morning. For all we know they could of had 95L up for hours now but it would appear to us.

like this:



im thinking cat 1 hurricane by the end of this!
This microwave is interesting:

Remember passive sensors pick up radiation scattered inside clouds. The deeper the clouds the less radiation reaching the sensor and thus the cooler colors. Remember the sea surface has low emissivity properties so most of the time it has cooler colors also, when there is no cloud cover.


If anyone is wondering..the Navy havnt updated any info for any storm since 0900 UTC this morning. For all we know they could have 95L up for hours now but it would appear to us.

Then, where did you find that image? lol!

It would be nice to see NHC issuing advises about PABLO
A hurricane isn't impossible...if shear stays low enough. Epsilon did it and Zeta almost did also.
Cazatormentas,

on the navy back up site
track mark atlantic basin (storm history)
29/now utc 27.1n/37.9w STS 3.0/3.0 pablo
29/1145 utc 27.0n/37.6w ST 2.5/2.5 95l
29/0545 utc 26.2n/38.6w ST 2.5/2.5 95l
28/2345 utc 25.9n/38.2w ST 1.5/1.5 90l
Cazatormentas,

on the navy back up site


Oh! Ok, Wx456...

I'm not well familiarized with that site. I usually take a look into it, looking for tropical cyclone satellite imagery, and some data about them from the title of the image.

Thanks.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi?YEAR=2007&MO=Dec&BASIN=SHEM&STORM_NAME=08S.MELAN IE&SENSOR=&PROD=ir1kmcolor&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Animate&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Active&CURRENT=20071229 .1900.meteo-7.ircolor.08S.MELANIE.60kts.978mb.17.9S.116.1E.jpg&DIR=/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc08/SHEM /08S.MELANIE/ssmi/ir1kmcolor&MOSAIC_SCALE=20%&ACTIVES=07-SHEM-08S.MELANIE,05-WPAC-63W.INVEST,05-WPAC -64W.INVEST,07-SHEM-90S.INVEST,07-SHEM-91S.INVEST,07-ATL-95L.INVEST,07-WPAC-98W.INVEST,&LOAD_CLOCK=n o
Tropical Cyclone Melanie

1430 UTC DEC 29 2007

Pattern: Extremely large and well define deep cloud overcast. Curve band is seen at 1.20 arc.

Current Intensity: CI 3.8/60/980

Adjustments: None

Final Estimate: CI 3.8

Dvorak Trends:
0000 UTC DEC 25 2007 - CI 1.5
1230 UTC DEC 26 2007 - CI 1.5
2200 UTC DEC 26 2007 - CI 1.5
1157 UTC DEC 27 2007 - CI 1.5
2030 UTC DEC 27 2007 - CI 1.8
0000 UTC DEC 28 2007 - CI 2.0
1000 UTC DEC 28 2007 - CI 3.0
2030 UTC DEC 28 2007 - CI 3.7
1030 UTC DEC 29 2007 - CI 3.5
1430 UTC DEC 29 2008 - CI 3.8



***********************************************************
Seems as though MODIS did captured the storm. Click for high res image


Why wont my images come through?????
As of 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Melanie [964 hPa] is located near 18.0S 115.6E or 330 kms north-northwest of Karratha and 465 kms north-northeast of ExMouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts up to 85 knots. The cyclone is moving southwest at 8 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre increasing to 75 knots by 1800 UTC 30December.

Hurricane Force Winds within 20 nautical miles of centre after 0000 UTC 30December with very high to phenomenal seas.

Storm Force Winds within 35 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Gale Force Winds within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell

Tropical Cyclone Melanie is moving on a southwesterly track, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Although the cyclone may remain offshore and not make a coastal crossing, there is still a potential for gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour developing in coastal communities west of Karratha later today.

Significant rainfall accumulation is unlikely, unless the cyclone takes a more southerly track.

Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warnings
=====================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Exmouth to Karratha

A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Cape Cuvier and inland to Minilya Roadhouse and Nanutarra

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS - 19.2S 113.6E 75 knots [CAT 3]
48 HRS - 20.3S 111.9E 70 knots [CAT 3]
Whatever, heres a nice loop of 95L...
Link
964hPa, and only 60 knots that cant be right??
90S & 91S has Tropical Disturbance Summaries from the JTWC

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARIES

57. Stormchaser2007 3:41 PM AST on December 29, 2007 Hide this comment.
964hPa, and only 60 knots that cant be right??
Action: | Ignore User


Pressures are lower in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific Ocean relative to Atlantic storms.
nhc got a special statement up as of 315 ast
Oh thanks.
nhc has special statement as of 315 ast on 95l
000
WONT41 KNHC 291919
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
... all blogs are gone or unavailable?...
000
WONT41 KNHC 291919
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

This is interesting.....
can some 1 give me a link to back up site??
can some 1 give me a link to the back up navy site please?
cool the nhc got my e mail


000
WONT41 KNHC 291919
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC
is any 1 there?
cool the nhc got my e mail and said some about 95L

000
WONT41 KNHC 291919
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ok oh kill all the blogs???
hello
any one see my commets
are the blogs down or some in hello
testing 123 testing
any one there say hello or some in
STS 95L actually looks sort of how Olga did before she became tropical...the system has convection wrapping around the center quite nicely.
testing. The blogs are down for me!

If you see this, hello to everyone. I am here to check on weather events.
Good afternoon all. I see that we have STS Pablo in the making here. It has a very impressive structure based on visible and microwave imagery. I have noticed that it appears to have now stalled out, but that will not last very long as it is clearly evident that the southwesterly flow will take hold of this system. I will have an update on my site when it does gain classification.
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

000
WONT41 KNHC 291919
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/SISKO
Hello? Anyone here besides me?
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WONT41 KNHC 291919
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/SISKO
It is 4:21pm in Baytown and I think the blog servers have died.
95L still getting better organized. Low level vorticity is very strong
Testing. Hello? Ok...I must be the only one here. :0
Did everyone disappear?
000
WONT41 KNHC 291919
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/SISKO



is anyone here
000
WONT41 KNHC 291919
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/SISKO



Is there anyone here? I havent seen any comments (including my own) for the past two hours. Please send me a message as to what the problem could be.
La Nina typically has late seasons, but this one is having a new years eve party!
huh?
Where is everyone???
Hi everyone! I see we have something interesting to watch for a couple of days.
hello all
Thank God the blogs are back.
do not adjust ur sets twilight zone ended
Well 95L only adds support to the case that the WMO should extend the season to December
Here is 95L warm-core

Hey Storm,
What are your thoughts on 95L tonight and could you comment on the situation displayed on the shear maps tonight? Looks like 95L will be experiencing favorable shear tonight and may thread the needle between two areas with very high shear. Thanks.
The last few frames on 95L look very good. A very well-defined convective band extends north of the circulation center, and outflow is becoming better-defined. Also, the circulation center appears to be becoming better-defined. I do think this will develop, and I also think it has a slim chance (10%, maybe more if this keeps up) to become a fully tropical system.
track mark
27.7n/37.8w STS/95L
So sticky and warm here I should have guessed that a tropical system would form. Better looking than Barry and Andrea, looks sort of like Zeta, not as good as Epsilon or Vince.
I have to agree completely with KoritheMan as that is what I have been observing for quite a while now. Looks like things are going to get quite active, at least for me, as I will have to monitor a deep Arctic blast coming into South Florida as well as a subtropical/tropical storm the next couple days. I have already made people aware of the situation occurring in the Eastern Atlantic.
How can 95L be warm cored in 22 deg c water ?
BBL
Look at the convection builds

Better looking than Barry and Andrea, looks sort of like Zeta, not as good as Epsilon or Vince.

Deja vu (Zeta vu?)...


I posted this yesterday to show how similar 95L's forecast track is to Zeta (the CMC is still forecasting pretty much the same track... funny that Dr. Masters STILL doesn't believe in the CMC... LOL):



Note that operationally Zeta developed on December 30 (also when it became a tropical storm in post-storm analysis), it actually became a depression on the 29th (UTC time).
The arctic blast doesn't seem that impressive to me. Upper 20s on my island used to be no great shakes.
Here is the latest IR imagery of 95L that clearly shows the center and some decent outflow occuring on the western side.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
112. Wundermobay 8:50 PM AST on December 29, 2007 Hide this comment.
How can 95L be warm cored in 22 deg c water ?


release of latent heat of condensation from convection caused by:

1. The difference between sea surface temps and the mid-levels. In this case the difference is almost 20C.

2. Upper divergence which causes conditionally unstable air to rise.
112. Wundermobay 6:50 PM CST on December 29, 2007
How can 95L be warm cored in 22 deg c water ?


It is possible; the 26*C/80*F rule is rather loosely defined and mostly applies to purely tropical systems, those that develop from tropical waves and other tropical disturbances, as opposed to extratropical gales and ULLs. It also mainly refers to storm formation; hurricanes can sustain themselves over cooler water if other conditions are favorable enough (like Gordon last year, which reintensified into a Cat 2 as it approached the Azores over 24-25*C SSTs). Usually that doesn't happen because by the time storms normally get that far north, other conditions like shear become unfavorable as well.
very interesting learnt something new
THATS WHAT I FIGURE STORM HOW I THOUGH IT WAS COLD CORE
sorry for caps dont do that often
hit the button
waitin on 11 out of NHC if they even say anything it should bd STS pablo by then if not all ready
Just noticing the pics 456 posted showing 95L as warm core...and I'm trying to figure out how, when the SST's aren't warm enough to provide the latent heat.

StormW......when air condenses isnt heat release? Even mid-latitude cyclones over 15C water releases heat from condensation. True?
Also, the SSTs aren't really that cold (22*C); according the the SSTs on the cyclone phase charts (which come from here), they are around 24*C. It has also occurred more than a few times over the last few years, in some cases over even colder water (like Vince* and this weird thing in the East Pacific last year), so it is not so baffling to me.

*Interestingly, unlike with 95L, no models ever analysed Vince with a warm-core.
Currently, Cyclone Phase Diagrams (CPD) show a moderate to weak warm-core.
SW,



http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/atl43.html
Seems we may get Pablo and one more named storm! Huh? Go figure!
Vince still looked a lot better though, for a while he looked like he had a true eyewall. My guess is that the NHC will wait and see if shear or something else kills or weakens the storm overnight--if it still looks decent tomorrow they will name it.
One more besides Pablo?

Wait.

What?
This is true...but what I'm wondering, is the core on 95L warmer than the surrounding environment...all the way to the surface? I couldn't see your graphic to good. Can you send me the link?

SW I would like to know:

Tropical cyclones tend to have a region near the surface that is not warm-core due to rain-cooled air. True?
my reasoning is 95l will remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days, trapped beneath an upper-level low in the area. After that, the storm will drift slowly westward probably absorbed by frontal system in around 108hrs from now.
139. JRRP
95L COULD THREATEN THE LESSER ANTILLES ?????????
got to run.....later
on another note, click on the radar at Valdosta, GA and click on total precipitation. A lot of south GA has ha a LOT of rain, although we have had none.
Before I go...this came from a Forecaster Guide to Tropical Met.

MID-TROPOSPHERIC (SUBTROPICAL)
CYCLONE. Both systems originate in
baroclinic environments and are probably
similar. They are most intense in the middle
troposphere, where horizontal temperature
gradients are least. They weaken both upward
and downward from this level, since
relative to the environment, they are
warmer in the upper and cooler in the lower
troposphere. Although a vertical eye does
not develop, these cyclones may be mistaken
for tropical cyclones in a weather
satellite picture.
Extensive nimbostratus
with embedded cumulonimbus gives sometimes
heavy rain. They are most common
over the subtropical North Pacific and North
Atlantic, and in summer over the northern
Arabian Sea. See Figures 8-7 through 8-18.

That text book by the Air force brought me to where I am.
Just wanted to mention this real fast, the NHC took down the Special statement...they could be issueing another
Warm core refers to the eye of the storm--vortex data reports show the difference in temperature between the eye and outside the hurricane. Temperatures typically do not start rising rapidly as you approach the center until you get to the inside of the inner eye wall. Since the descending air in the eye is warmed by heat release from the storms condensation and by compression as it goes downwards, the air in the eye becomes warm, dry, and the eye is usually precipitation free, or nearly so.

So rain cooled air does not apply. The warm core description pretty much just applies to the eye, nowhere else.
also the greater the difference between the sea surface and the mid-levels the more unstable the atmosphere is. That does not necessarily mean convection as they are inversions and other anomalies.

Thats why a sudden burst of convection can result within the SAL Laden tropical atl in summer.
OK the tropical weather discussion says that shear is supposed to increase substantially over the storm tomorrow. It really, really is. So they may just let it die with the shear tomorrow and not bother naming it.

Cause the shear is coming tomorrow.

It really, really is.

Isn't it?
Ya know, I never really researched that! It would seem true...although with the air sinking in the eye and adiabatic warming taking place, I'm not sure whether the air near the surface would be cooled by rain, or if the precipitation masks the warm core signal and is barely detectable on microwave imagery because of the rain?


ok..I see what ur saying...its the eye wall not the eye. Thanks
well i'm out again


95L has an eye? no ambiguities here
definitely not a closed eye.
Good evening!

I see the atlantic wants to spit out something tropical before the years out which indeed could happen in the form of a STS in the near future but its life will quickly be cut short as upper level winds are forcasted to destroy anything out in the region.

All in all no worries at all from this feature so everyone should enjoy the holiday weekend with no problems.

www.AdriansWeather.com
145. extreme236 1:36 AM GMT on December 30, 2007 Hide this comment.
Just wanted to mention this real fast, the NHC took down the Special statement...they could be issueing another


They are also possibly issuing the First advisory.
When the NHC takes down there statement, its eaither its dead or its a New system, and 95L is certanly not dead.
148. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 7:41 PM CST on December 29, 2007
OK the tropical weather discussion says that shear is supposed to increase substantially over the storm tomorrow. It really, really is. So they may just let it die with the shear tomorrow and not bother naming it.

Cause the shear is coming tomorrow.

It really, really is.

Isn't it?


LOL... That sounds like some (many) of the discussions for Epsilon and Zeta... Interesting that they note that the shear currently is currently bypassing it to the north and south, which sounds like what happened with Epsilon and Zeta several times when they forecast high shear to come.
Almost forgot strong coldfront moving down the pike this upcoming week will bring areas across florida real chilly temps so stay tuned!

For more on the chill go Here.
They are also possibly issuing the First advisory.
When the NHC takes down there statement, its eaither its dead or its a New system, and 95L is certanly not dead.


They usually don't name it unless the Navy site has it listed as "NONAME", which they don't at this point in time.
track mark
30/0000 UTC 27.8n/37.7w ST 2.5/2.5 95l
True Korithe, but thats not always the case, remember Lorenzo when they named it as a TD without the NRL putting it up. And the Navy has been messing up a tad today, they took off 95L and put it back on a short while ago.
Issued early today...

FREEZE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
312 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2007

FLZ063-066-067-070-301000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-INLAND COLLIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...
LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...PAHOKEE...
SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...IMMOKALEE
312 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2007

...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING NORTHWEST
SECTIONS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MAY APPROACH
THE FREEZING MARK OVER GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND COLLIER AND WESTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTIES. PEOPLE SHOULD ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE STEPS
NECESSARY TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SCENARIO SO STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES.
162. JLPR
we got a 2.5 so i see something.. umm a P
could it be a name lol
It could be named for a short period before it gets destroyed to pieces.
True Korithe, but thats not always the case, remember Lorenzo when they named it as a TD without the NRL putting it up. And the Navy has been messing up a tad today, they took off 95L and put it back on a short while ago.

Ah, I see. In that case, they will probably name it tonight or tommorow morning. They did the same thing with Olga (took the down the SDS and then put it back up, and that's when Olga formed).

Almost forgot strong coldfront moving down the pike this upcoming week will bring areas across florida real chilly temps so stay tuned!

Pull out those winter coats, Adrian! I'm getting lows in the mid to upper 20s here in Louisiana come January 1 and January 2.
165. beell
The GFS from about 252 hrs and out. (8th and 9th) depicts a deep digging trough way down into S TX. Western edge of a fairly strong High parked over the SE CONUS.
A rainmaker to say the least. Would have to add severe to this as well.

Still a ways off. Something to watch.

Link
Yea KoritheMan the models are hinting at some real chilly temps down here next week.Big change for sure as i had temps today in the mid 80's.

Before i forget ive begin my write ups on my favorite tropical cyclones make sure you check it out if you have some time.Thanks adrian

Adrian's Hurricane Archives
I wouldn't be surprised to see this last longer than they say...it seems odd storms like this are more resilient...
163. hurricane23 2:00 AM GMT on December 30, 2007 Hide this comment.
It could be named for a short period before it gets destroyed to pieces.


Ahh but not if it pulls a Epsilon on us, the NHC said constanly that it was going to die, Took a while. And good thing Cold tempetures are comming,
i walk outside down here in Florida thinking "What season is this, winter or Spring?" I saw on the WU it said in my area it could become 30
degrees at night.
169. JLPR
if the shear doesnt come this one would be moving west and south where the waters are a lil hotter and it could make it to a TS thats only if shear doesnt come but it will =D
For those that missed my link here is the page to my new page on my favorite tropical cyclones.

Adrian's Hurricane Archives

I wish everyone the best in 2008! Take care.
95L appears on floater as movin e slighly se at this time hovering around that 27/37 area
cordinates

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 12/29/07 27.2N 37.9W 25 1008 Invest
18 GMT 12/29/07 27.8N 37.7W 35 1006 Invest


global models have wrong handle on 95L all forecast 1014mb in 12hr, gfs and nogaps..1012mb in 24hrs ukmet....1010mb in 24hrs but 95L already down to 1006mb can we trust them with the track?
now has it with 40 mph winds according to this site.
maybe in about 60 mins or so we will have our first advisory on STS PABLO
excellent link for viewing latest with 95L includes sst,mslp,quickscat etc.


Link
Maybe so, Keeper.

if the shear doesnt come this one would be moving west and south where the waters are a lil hotter and it could make it to a TS thats only if shear doesnt come but it will=D

That's what the NHC said about Epsilon and Zeta, and even Gordon in 2006. It's coming man, I tell you! The shear is coming!

*Two days later, the storm is a hurricane*

Er... well, it IS coming.

*Six hours later, the storm strengthens to 90 mph*

Sorry, I couldn't resist. I seriously don't expect the potential Pablo to last long.
k m my thoughts as well if anything it wont be long lived just a nice tracker
As of 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Melanie [964 hPa] located near 18.2S 114.0E or 410 kms northwest of Karratha and 415 kms north of ExMouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts up to 85 knots. The cyclone is moving west-southwest at 10 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre increasing to 70 knots by 0000 UTC 31December.

Hurricane Force Winds within 20 nautical miles of centre after 1800 UTC 30December with very high to phenomenal seas.

Storm Force Winds within 35 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Gale Force Winds within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Tropical Cyclone Melanie is moving on a west southwesterly track, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Although the cyclone is expected to remain offshore and not make a coastal crossing, there is still potential for gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour to develop in coastal communities between Coral Bay and Mardie later today.

No significant rainfall is expected from this system.

Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warnings
=====================
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Mardie

A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Coral Bay

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS - 20.2S 112.0E 70 knots [CAT 3]
48 HRS - 21.5S 110.0E 60 knots [CAT 2]
Hello everyone
172. Wundermobay 8:19 PM CST on December 29, 2007
cordinates

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 12/29/07 27.2N 37.9W 25 1008 Invest
18 GMT 12/29/07 27.8N 37.7W 35 1006 Invest


global models have wrong handle on 95L all forecast 1014mb in 12hr, gfs and nogaps..1012mb in 24hrs ukmet....1010mb in 24hrs but 95L already down to 1006mb can we trust them with the track?


That is no mistake; tropical cyclones are grossly underestimated by global models due to their very low resolution (measured in degrees or dozens of miles); see here for more (presumely, it also affects subtropical storms, but not as much). Even Category 5 hurricanes often only show up as 1000-1010 mb on global models (about 10 mb lower for the West Pacific area); even Katrina, the largest Category 5 on record in the Atlantic, was analysed at only 980 mb.
MichaelSTL yeah I ganked that from Franklin's discussion of Epsilon on December 6, 2005 @ 10 p.m.
hes backed tracked to 36.8 36.9
holding at 277 n
btw everyone that is normally on here is watching the pats vs Giants game
Hi all...

First time poster, long time lurker. Sure am hoping 95L goes bye-bye before my eastern Caribbean cruise this coming Saturday. Had the misfortune to meet TS/STS (whichever it was)Olga up close and personal earlier this month on a cruise, and don't want to do that again. What a wild and crazy ride directly through the storm!! The captain reported 58 knot winds across the outside decks, which were closed for 2 days.

Nothing in October, nothing in November, you'd think December and January would be safe to book cruises. (Maybe this is why I don't play the lottery!!) Anyway, will be following everyone's comments closely and hoping for the best. Thanks for all the great info you all share.

Motoko
c'mon wind shear!!!
Nothing in October, nothing in November, you'd think December and January would be safe to book cruises. (Maybe this is why I don't play the lottery!!) Anyway, will be following everyone's comments closely and hoping for the best. Thanks for all the great info you all share.


Maybe you should play the lottery you land right on the 2 storms
u work the cruisers mo nice
This is a pretty good showing of the beneficial rains over interior southeast Georgia

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=40&frame=0&delay=15&s cale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=VAX&type=NTP&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale= 1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_ max=9999&avg_off=9999
Tropcial Cyclone Melanie Immediate Advisory - Issued at 3:00 AM UTC
==============================================

As of 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Melanie [966 hPa] located near 18.8S 113.6E or 355 kms north of Exmouth and 355 kms north-northwest of Onslow has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts up to 80 knots. The cyclone is moving southwest at 10 knots.

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Onslow

A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Coral Bay.
Thundercloud writes
Maybe you should play the lottery you land right on the 2 storms

LOL, seen 'em before. Hurricanes Charley (landfall 17 miles from my mobile home - it stood with minor damage) and Wilma (landfall 65 miles away - took off half the roof). Numerous other tropical entities that passed by SW Florida in 2004 and 2005.

I like tropical systems better when I'm standing on terra firma.;-)

Motoko
95l looks to be getting pushed ese ward with building convection may be tryin to find weakness in trof coming from nw and interaction with the east flow to south could permit STS 95L to skirt under over the zone of lease resistance/lowest shear which is narrow but possible very interesting treat.
well it looks like they will not upgrade tonight good night see all in the morning
nope guess not.. well good night thundercloud
Good night all.
Hey Keeper,

No, don't work on a cruise ship, just take lots of cruises. G'nite all, will check back tomorrow.

Motoko
g'night to all thats leaving
later mo
I am pretty sure the NHC is waiting for morning visibles to become available before they make an upgrade.
IDK...looks like the system has a frontal boundary attached to its north now...guess we will have to wait to see whats up with 95L in the morning....even if this doesnt develop, this is quite interesting to see an invest this late in the year.
So 456 is this front going to absorb 95L or can it pull away from it?
The NHC sure is wasting time


201. extreme236 12:22 AM AST on December 30, 2007 Hide this comment.
So 456 is this front going to absorb 95L or can it pull away from it?


We will have to wait and see......I notice that the convection is being skewed towards the NE and a cirrus spike to the west similar to tropical cyclones that recurve.
Good night all
there waiting if this sticks around till jan 1 before named is it a late finish or early start to the season
Interesting, Where did the storm come from?
dashed lines represents shear axises

high seas forecast puts 95l at 23n41w in 48hrs low forecast
206. Boscago 12:33 AM AST on December 30, 2007 Hide this comment.
Interesting, Where did the storm come from?


It came from a frontolyzing ( a frontal wave developed and quickly occluded) cold front that got blocked off from the main westerly flow by the bridging Azores high. It started about Monday. After I notice it Christmas Eve...initial model runs indicated a possible subtropical storm and as the week pass it become more developed and evident.
Why name a system in almost january when its future is really going to last about minutes.
All images were taken 0000 UTC (which would be 7 PM EST the previous night)

Christmas eve



Christmas Day



Boxing Day

95l looks to have thown itself into reverse l
Note:

Tropical Storm Erin TCR will be interesting. It hasnt been release yet but waiting to see if they will upgrade over land.
210. hurricane23 10:43 PM CST on December 29, 2007
Why name a system in almost january when its future is really going to last about minutes.


Just curious - Did you also say that about Zeta? Or was it because it was 2005?
2005.....This is not 2005 first of all and second 90 percent of the NHC is out barbequeing.
Here is a great image i had saved on my pc earlier this morning...

215. hurricane23 11:08 PM CST on December 29, 2007
2005.....


Well, then it is obvious that you are still letting 2005 affect your views... IMO it should be forgotten (if the NHC named a storm on December 30 in 2005 then why can't or shouldn't they do the same this year, nothing has changed since then other than the year, or should storms like Zeta be removed from the hurricane database?).
Maybe so seasons like 2005 come around once every 50 years or so.Incredible tracking season and feel lucky to have lived through it.But i'll take a few seasons like 07 for the U.S. before seeing death and destruction on our coast lines.But overall its possible it will get named before shear eats it alive.

PS!Goodbless those lives that were lost down there this season the caribbean took it hard this year. Adrian
Winds to batter West Coast of Australia as Melanie passes

Forecaster Andrew Burton says there is a chance Melanie could turnaround once it drifts past the coast.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/30/2128945.htm
nice sat sky
Taz..u got mail
215. hurricane23 5:08 AM GMT on December 30, 2007 Hide this comment.
2005.....This is not 2005 first of all and second 90 percent of the NHC is out barbequeing.


They seemed to be fine out when they named Andrea. This system meats all the requierments for
a STS, infact the Tropical Discussion noted it had
a T of 2.5, the only reason its not named atm is that it So far out.
got to be at 41 before a name
Strange?

iam expecting 95l to shift wsw at 35w then head toward 25.9n/41.1w for new years day
as sts pablo
Memories...

Zeta to ring in the New Year

Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:02 PM AST on December 31, 2005
It's fitting that the unbelievable Hurricane Season of 2005 will only end when the calendar flips a page at midnight tonight, officially ending the most destructive and prolific Atlantic hurricane season on record. When I wrote my first blog of hurricane season on June 8 about Arlene, little did I suspect that I'd be toiling away on New Year's Eve seven months and 27 storms later, talking about Tropical Storm Zeta!


and Jeff really jump the gun on August 18 2005

TD 10 is dead, and will rise no more!
strange indeed 456 lookin at the start of a new era in storms which will occur more often as time passes
Wind shear has increased a lot by the last hours over 95L, looking at the CIMSS maps. 30/40 KT of wind shear will not allow to the system to gain more organization unfortunately.

In this way, NHC has removed the Special Advice from its homepage about this system...

Bye, bye, PABLO !
In this way, NHC has removed the Special Advice from its homepage about this system...

...You do realize they did the same thing for Olga, right?
found this new thing on nhc site

you can see 95l/pablo forming!
Pretty neat, hurricane24. :)
...You do realize they did the same thing for Olga, right?

I didn't know that...

Anyway, there is another update of CIMSS wind-shear fields (9 UTC): 40-50 KT over 95L... It is increasing fastly.

In the other hand, quikSCAT is centered on 95L since yesterday, and it has been showing lots of 35 KT windbarbs yesterday evening / last night... Isn't it enough to consider 95L as an official Subtropical Depression??

I would say that NHC will re-consider its point of view about this invest.

See you!

I didn't know that...


I apologize then.

Anyway, there is another update of CIMSS wind-shear fields (9 UTC): 40-50 KT over 95L... It is increasing fastly.

This is true, but subtropical cyclones aren't as prone to upper-level shear as tropical cyclones are, hence why Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta were able to survive such strong shearing winds aloft (they weren't fully tropical, regardless of what anyone says, since they formed over water temperatures in the mid 70s).

In the other hand, quikSCAT is centered on 95L since yesterday, and it has been showing lots of 35 KT windbarbs yesterday evening / last night... Isn't it enough to consider 95L as an official Subtropical Depression??

Yeah, I don't understand why the NHC is not naming it.

I would say that NHC will re-consider its point of view about this invest.

I agree.

See you!

Good night. :)
This is true, but subtropical cyclones aren't as prone to upper-level shear as tropical cyclones are, hence why Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta were able to survive such strong shearing winds aloft (they weren't fully tropical, regardless of what anyone says, since they formed over water temperatures in the mid 70s).

Is this a mistery? If Meteorologists (experts on tropical cyclones) can't answer to this question, how could we do it?

About that, I had read the main reason for the impressive 2005 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin was a low general wind-shear together with higher than normal sea surface temperatures, resulting in a high final energy for tropical cyclone development. I apologize if I'm not right, KoritheMan.
This storm deserves a name. It met the criteria for a name 12 hours ago. The first two storms of the season were less worthy than this.
hey is anyone on this morning
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1222 UTC 30/12/2007
Name: Melanie
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.9S
Longitude: 112.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (253 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Central Pressure: 966 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (28 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 31/0000: 19.3S 111.3E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 972
+24: 31/1200: 19.6S 110.3E: 070 (130): 045 (085): 980
+36: 01/0000: 19.9S 109.3E: 090 (165): 040 (075): 984
+48: 01/1200: 20.3S 108.4E: 110 (205): 030 (055): 990
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Melanie has maintained a west southwesterly track. DT is
difficult to assign confidently. Embd Center can be used but depending on
position fix will give a T-No that is obviously too high given appearance on IR
and microwave. The LLCC is partially exposed on the NE side. Shear Pattern DT of
3.5 is assigned. FT=3.5 and CI of 4.0. With continuing shear, cooler SSTs and a
stratocumulus cloud field to the southwest, weakening is expected.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
GM,

The cyclone is undergoing extra tropical transition (which means it must have been subtropical or tropical at one point). Look at it....it looks like tropical cyclones that recurve under the upper convergence ahead of shortwave troughs.

Also look at the surface horizontal wind shear and advection.

Vertical Wind shear is also increasing which is making for a baroclinic environment.

If it was named now.....How many hours would it remained name?

Since Friday, it looked subtropical. What is the NHC looking for?

So many questions and so little answers.

One of the most destructive Australian Hurricanes

Cyclone Mahina - This terrible storm in March 1899, which was accompanied by a storm surge of over 10 metres, caused by far the highest death toll of any cyclone before or since, claiming over 400 lives as it completely destroyed a pearling fleet at Bathurst Bay near Cape Melville, Queensland. Deaths included the crews of 100 vessels and an estimated 100 local aborigines.
The cyclone is undergoing extra tropical transition (which means it must have been subtropical or tropical at one point). Look at it....it looks like tropical cyclones that recurve under the upper convergence ahead of shortwave troughs.

Good point there, Wx456.

I'm looking at a structure like a frontal boundary developing at its east. The main Mesoescale Convective Complex is shut away to the nothern flank, althoug 95L is still showing a good outflow pattern at its western flank.

It reminds me the extratropical transition of GORDON last year, when it was close to Galicia (Iberian Peninsula).
Actually, the storm would be Tropical Storm Pablo if it became a tropical storm before Tuesday. If it becomes one on Tuesday or after, it would be Tropical Storm Arthur, the first of the new year. But it seems now that this invest will get absorbed by an extratropical system.
The whole of the Northern Australian Coast seems very unstable

Link
Please visit my blog and place your vote for 2007 nominees for

1. The most spectacular Atlantic Hurricane

2. The least spectacular Atlantic Tropical Storm

3. Names to be retired in Spring 2008

4. Tropical storms that should not have been named (If you feel all should be name, just choose the one that you would not be surprise if it did not get name.

5. Most powerful winter storm

6. Coldest temperature recorded at your location (Give the average)

7. Warmest month you have encountered this year

8. Your goals for 2008
SO it looks like in PSA we could have another unnamed tropical storm this on on December 28th -30th
it seems so
I have caught a IR image of the 95L, emphasizing some features:



Forecasts are locating the system to southwest from the actual location:

Thursday:

A 1013 stationary non-tropical low pressure area centered in the Eastern Atlantic near 27N/39W. Forecast models and surface observations continue to show possibility of subtropical transition by this low as it continues to be blocked south of the bridging Azores High pressure System. Satellite imagery also resemble subtropical storm models with most of the convection in the Eastern and Northwest quadrants. The system continues to be embedded within an upper trough but latest observations show this pattern maybe waning. The low has a small chance of becoming fully subtropical much less tropical as a front pulls in from the Northwest. However, there are some difficulties in forecasting this storm. The front may not interact with the system at all. Also a 500 mb trough and low accompanies the low. This set up is similar to subtropical storms in the Eastern-Central Pacific Ocean, called Kona Lows. This is indeed an interesting storm. Winds with this system are estimated to be 20-30 knots. QuikSCAT is currently processing the area and there are few nearby observations.

by W456
Just a quick note on Sunday morning. 456 we were tracking I95 last Turusday and making comments on how well organized it was at that time. It hasn’t moved anywhere because of the lack of a steering currant. As I indicated on Friday, I am glad that I am not in a ship traveling that area of the Atlantic.

Sydeny, those are some impressive storms along the north coast. Hope everything is okay down under as we say in the USA.

Will have to check and see how the NE USA is going to do today and then get some work done.

Happy New Year to all as some will be starting it in less than 24 hours.
hi all i sent 456 a WU mail about this


so i want you all to see this this look how march snow they are forcasting they are forcasting 10ft of snow for are mts

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
546 AM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-310200-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
546 AM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER IS ON THE WAY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...

A POWERFUL ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A SERIES OF STORMS INTO
CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS...AND HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...IS EXPECTED. STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STORMY
WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THESE STORMS WILL DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS DURING THIS PERIOD. VERY STRONG WINDS
ARE LIKELY. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UP TO 10 FEET OF SNOW MAY FALL
OVER THE HIGHEST PASSES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS
. BE AWARE THAT TRAVEL WILL
BECOME DANGEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME...MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH THESE COLD FRONTS. SNOW LEVEL
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL AIR THAT WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE JETSTREAM.

PLEASE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS
FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. CHECK OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SACRAMENTO AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR UPDATES.

same here has well


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
353 AM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

CAZ070>073-NVZ001>005-310000-
SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-
EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-
MINDEN AREA-WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDARVILLE...EAGLEVILLE...
FORT BIDWELL...PORTOLA...SUSANVILLE...WESTWOOD...SIERRAVILLE...
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TAHOE CITY...TRUCKEE...MARKLEEVILLE...
BRIDGEPORT...COLEVILLE...LEE VINING...MAMMOTH LAKES...HAWTHORNE...
YERINGTON...SMITH VALLEY...MINA...SCHURZ...GLENBROOK...
INCLINE VILLAGE...SPARKS...VERDI...GARDNERVILLE...FERNLEY...
FALLON...LOVELOCK...SILVER SPRINGS...NIXON...IMLAY...EMPIRE...
GERLACH
353 AM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

...PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER LIKELY LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...

A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND WEST COAST BY LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS TO
PUSH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN
THE SIERRA. LATEST PROJECTIONS SUGGEST STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 5 AND
10 FEET OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST WITH MULTIPLE FEET
DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA.
IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNUSUALLY STRONG WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNT
OF SNOW OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS...HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.
GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A rather strong shortwave trough located across the Great Lakes Region continues to push towards the east with an associated frontal boundary extending from the Gulf of Mexico at 20N/95W to a low near the Carolinas. Strong PVA ahead of the trough is responsible for producing vigorous convection across the Southeast United States with Doppler radar showing a line of showers and thunder-squalls extending from Louisiana to the Atlantic Corridor. Meanwhile, deep anticyclonic flow invades the Eastern Gulf of Mexico with Patches of multilayered cloudiness and showers extending from the Caribbean to Northern Florida east of 90W. Fair weather is noted elsewhere.

A pretty strong and well-develop surface ridge dominates the Western Atlantic centered on a 1030 mb high at 36N/48W. In the upper levels, significant dry air covers the mid-upper levels and 700 mb vertical velocity indicates stable air covers the region. The southern edge of broken stratocumulus cells rotating in and around the Atlantic high pressure also noted from 40W to the East Coast. North of 35N, anticyclonic flow is supporting a swath of cloudiness and showers from the Atlantic Corridor to 60W.


by W456

10 ft...thats a winter weather madness.
456 you no what 10ft of snow would do if we got that march snow i dont think are mts can take that march snow that is a lot of snow fall
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

There is nothing more obvious than the Caribbean this morning. A very deep and broad anticyclone covers the entire region. Water vapor imagery shows this trough is supporting a tremendous amount of dry air in the mid-upper levels of the troposphere. Thereby deep convection remains absent, except for Northern South America. At the surface, surface ridging is providing additional fair weather and breezy trades but is also steering patches of shallow moisture across the Caribbean. These patches become a little more vertical (nimbostratus) across the Western Caribbean where there is some upper level support by the ridge.


by W456

The Ski Industry can really benefit from that much snowfall.
255. Tazmanian 3:20 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
456 you no what 10ft of snow would do if we got that march snow i dont think are mts can take that march snow that is a lot of snow fall



can anyone translate this for me?
The NHC put another STDS up:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM AST SUN DEC 30 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS... MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND IT STILL COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
G'morning all. Hey 456, something's been needling me about Jan 8-10. I'm no good at long-range models...anything coming up in that time frame?
258. Dirtleg 7:30 AM PST on December 30, 2007
255. Tazmanian 3:20 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
456 you no what 10ft of snow would do if we got that march snow i dont think are mts can take that march snow that is a lot of snow fall


can anyone translate this for me?

this Ignore this troll i was talking to 456 and not too Dirtleg
translation for dirtleg:

456 you no what 10ft of snow would do if we got that march snow i dont think are mts can take that march snow that is a lot of snow fall

456, you know what 10 feet of snow would do? if we got that much snow, I don't think our mountians can take that much snow. That is a lot of snowfall.
Taz, I can read you just fine. :)
hi STL you msy want to take and look at this and then come see me in my blog

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
546 AM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-310200-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
546 AM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER IS ON THE WAY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...

A POWERFUL ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A SERIES OF STORMS INTO
CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS...AND HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...IS EXPECTED. STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STORMY
WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THESE STORMS WILL DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS DURING THIS PERIOD. VERY STRONG WINDS
ARE LIKELY. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UP TO 10 FEET OF SNOW MAY FALL
OVER THE HIGHEST PASSES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS
. BE AWARE THAT TRAVEL WILL
BECOME DANGEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME...MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH THESE COLD FRONTS. SNOW LEVEL
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL AIR THAT WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE JETSTREAM.

PLEASE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS
FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. CHECK OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SACRAMENTO AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR UPDATES.

same here has well


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
353 AM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

CAZ070>073-NVZ001>005-310000-
SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-
EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-
MINDEN AREA-WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDARVILLE...EAGLEVILLE...
FORT BIDWELL...PORTOLA...SUSANVILLE...WESTWOOD...SIERRAVILLE...
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TAHOE CITY...TRUCKEE...MARKLEEVILLE...
BRIDGEPORT...COLEVILLE...LEE VINING...MAMMOTH LAKES...HAWTHORNE...
YERINGTON...SMITH VALLEY...MINA...SCHURZ...GLENBROOK...
INCLINE VILLAGE...SPARKS...VERDI...GARDNERVILLE...FERNLEY...
FALLON...LOVELOCK...SILVER SPRINGS...NIXON...IMLAY...EMPIRE...
GERLACH
353 AM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

...PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER LIKELY LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...

A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND WEST COAST BY LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS TO
PUSH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN
THE SIERRA. LATEST PROJECTIONS SUGGEST STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 5 AND
10 FEET OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST WITH MULTIPLE FEET
DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA.
IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNUSUALLY STRONG WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNT
OF SNOW OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS...HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.
SPECIAL FEATURES OF INTEREST....

A deep subtropical low pressure area is located near 27N/36W spinning stationary. The low continues to move little due to the weak steering flow it is embedded it created by the upper trough it is embedded in (Similar to Andrea in May). How do I know it%u2019s the upper trough? Well, the surface flow is pretty strong and directed towards the southwest. Since its not obliviously moving southwestward it has to be under the influence of something else. In the upper levels, the trough is created a %u201Cfishing net%u201D effect and has the low just spinning stationary.

Satellite imagery this morning continues to reveal interesting observation. For one, the cyclone is undergoing extratropical transition into a frontal boundary to the north. The circulation is becoming elongated, there is evidence of some frontal activity and the convection is being skewed towards the northeast in the direction shortwave flow. The cyclone is still retaining subtropical organization, but time is running out. QuikSCAT did not catch the entire system in the descending or ascending pass but it does show gale force somewhat away from the center. That maybe the reason why the NHC has not upgrade it yet. AMSU-B data also show extratropical transformation with the suspected warm-core is stretch towards the northeast and not as distinct anymore. Perhaps the height of organization was Yesterday. Some computer models still bring the system towards the west-southwest and this seems likely as the Azores high continues to build. But don't be surprise if it is entirely absorbed towards the northeast.

by W456

Elongated COC


260. aquak9 11:31 AM AST on December 30, 2007 Hide this comment.
G'morning all. Hey 456, something's been needling me about Jan 8-10. I'm no good at long-range models...anything coming up in that time frame?


where do you live?
456- I'm in jacksonville, fl...northeast tip of florida. But I was thinking about the whole southeast sector...we got some kinda possibilty for severe weather? Don't know why that time frame's been bugging me...
For Taz,

Includes predictions for all or portions of California (Long Beach, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose).

Pacific Southwest Long-range Weather Region

Winter be will about two degrees above normal, on average, with the coldest periods in mid-December, mid-January, and late February. Rainfall and mountain snowfall will be above normal in the north and near normal in the south. The stormiest periods will be in late January, early February, and early and mid-March.

Source: 2008 Almanac
Aqua,

Jan. 8-14: T-storms, then sunny, warm

An extratropical storm will pound sections of the Great lakes and NE around 8-12 Jan. The associated cold front will sweep across the Southern Plains and South US with potential for sever weather.

11 Jan
Hmmm..ok. Thanks 456. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Thank you.
This could turn out to be a wild center relocation process and not extratropical transition. We'll have to wait and see if it sorts itself out or if getting hit by the front was too much.
000
WONT41 KNHC 301500
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM AST SUN DEC 30 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS... MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND IT STILL COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

And we now have Tropical Disturbance 06R west of Madagascar
If the system stops interacting with the front, then the system could still become a subtropical storm. Not over yet.
Interesting,

extreme visit my blog when u get a chance and cast your vote for 2007 nominees.

1. The most spectacular Atlantic Hurricane

2. The least spectacular Atlantic Tropical Storm

3. Names to be retired in Spring 2008

4. Tropical storms that should not have been named (If you feel all should be name, just choose the one that you would not be surprise if it did not get name.

5. Most powerful winter storm

6. Coldest temperature recorded at your location (Give the average)

7. Warmest month you have encountered this year

8. Your goals for 2008
Ok W456, I will go ahead and do that now :D
BBL
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NEWS
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230
"NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC) identified the high likelihooh of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season as early as May," said John Jones, deputy director of the National Weather Service. "We expected an above normal season based in part on the wind, air pressure, and ocean temperature patterns that recur annually for decades at a time and favor active hurricane seasons. These patterns make up the active phase of the Atlantic's multi-decadal signal." Click here- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/NOAA_pr_12_1_03.html
Looks like Pablo will never be. Ah well, on to the arctic blast next week!
More interesting weather

Tropical Disturbance 06R in the Mozambique Channel

456 i sent you mail
Is anyone on today
Advisory for 06R...

At 12:00 PM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather [1002 hPa] located near 18.4S 41.4E or 1475 kms west of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The disturbance was moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.1S 41.6E, 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.0S 42.0E 40 Knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
=====================
System has consolidated within the last 12 hours. Environment is favorable for it to gradually intensify. Low level circulation center is expected to stay quasi-stationary within the next 24 hours then recurve southwestward on the northern edge of a subtropical high pressure towards a trough shifting in its southwest

At this stage, the system intensity doesn't justify 6 hours advisories.
As of 18:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Melanie [968 hPa] located near 19.1S 112.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts up to 75 knots. The cyclone is moving west-southwest at 6 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre decreasing to 40 knots by 1800 UTC 31December.

Storm Force Winds within 35 nautical miles of centre until 0000 UTC 31December with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Gale Force Winds within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS - 19.8S 109.9E 40 knots [CAT 1]
48 HRS - 20.5S 108.0E 30 knots [Tropical Low]
Hi my Weather friends!!!

What's going on with 95???? is it going to be named?? I understand it will not be a threat to any land masses but wanted an update.


Will check back for your answers!!!

HI EVERYONE!!

It is very hot down here in SE florida.. we are out side in tank tops, flip flops and shorts and it is hot.. running this morning was as bad as summer!

Hope the nice weather holds out thru New Years Day!!!
ok i think i figured out what the invest is doing. ive been watching the loop for that area closely and when it first looked tropical it was somewhat connected to a front, like it is now. then it began to detatch from the front and spin back up. when it first formed, it had characteristics like it does now. it appears to be detaching from another front and looks like it will head southwest like the models predict once it detatches all the way. thats just what i figure.
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NEWS
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230

"NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC)identified the high likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season as early as May," said John Jones, deputy director of the National Weather Service. "We expected an above normal season based in part on the wind, air pressure, and ocean temperature patterns that recur annually for decades at time and favor active hurricane seasons. These patterns make up the active phase of the Atlantic's multi-decadal signal."
Click here- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/NOAA_pr_12_1_03.html
OFF Weather, but just wanted to wish everyone All the best and healthy & safe 2008.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (91S/06R)

90S/90P INVEST UPGRADED TO "FAIR" FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONCE

Tropical Disturbance Summary from JTWC
Invest 91S Log from WIKIPEDIA website


91S/06R.INVEST

91S.INVEST first appeared 2007-12-29, 0900z @ 20.1ºS 42.3ºE.
POOR from ABIO10 2007-12-29, 1800z @ 19.7ºS 42.6ºE.
Zone Perturbée 06R 2007-2008 from RSMC 2007-12-30, 1200z @ 18.4ºS 41.4ºE.
FAIR from ABIO10 2007-12-30, 1600z @ 18.3ºS 41.6ºE.
GOOD/TCFA from ABIO10 2007-12-30, 1800z @ 18.3ºS 41.6ºE.

----
When Seychelles upgrades this to a tropical storm the designated name will be Elnus.
Thanks for the information on 95!


WHAT NO WAY!!! we are NOT allowed to have an above average hurricane season here in SE florida..... my daughter has a wedding party here on July 26th and there better not be a hurricane to ruin this affair!

that was my dread when they picked that date early last summer!
Special Feature 14:05 EDT 30December
========================================

Surface low pressure [1008 mb] is centered over the eastern atlantic about 900 miles south-southwest of the Azores. Satellite imagery indicates that the system is now interacting with a cold front to its north and showers and thunderstorm activity has become less organized than yesterday, However this system continues to produce Gale-Force Winds mainly to the north and slightly to the south of the center and still has potential of becoming a subtropical storm later today or tomorrow as it moves slowly during the next couple of days.

Most of the convection is to the north of the low center from 29-32N between 31-36W with a line of showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 28N 34W to 28N 34W.
Did anyone happen to catch the storms that hit here in south Louisiana last night!!?!?

The lightening was very frequent and there were reports of dime sized hail pretty much throughout the region. I live around 30 miles from downtown Baton Rouge, and it stormed everywhere in between.

The electricity here went out once. I'd say that there were areas that recieved 1-2 inches of rain in short periods of time.

Check out my blog for a more detailed description.

Aside from that, it's pretty impressive that we have I95 on our hands. It'll be interesting to see if it gets named or not.

Good afternoon everyone!
Tornado Warnings in SE Georgia

MRV at 3.35 shows some circulation there, barely visible at 0.50...VIL not over thirty but best to err on the side of caution, 456.
MRV at 3.35 very clear

Link
MRV at 0.50 more definite than it was 5 minutes ago....hmmm...

Link
Area further to the southwest, MRV at 3.35 is weak, but this is at the edge of the radar.

Link
WWUS86 KSTO 302011
SPSSTO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1211 PM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-311800-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
1211 PM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER IS ON THE WAY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SEND A
SERIES OF STORMS INTO CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE INTERIOR VALLEY...AND HEAVY
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

THESE STORMS WILL DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
VALLEY...AND HEAVY SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AROUND 10 FEET OF SNOW
MAY FALL
OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PASSES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS LATER THIS WEEK. WEATHER FORECAST CHARTS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS...BUT NOT QUITE
ON THE MAGNITUDE OF DECEMBER 12, 1995...WHEN WIND GUSTS FROM 60
TO OVER 80 MPH STRUCK NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THE STRONG WINDS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
DANGEROUS WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA. TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS...
IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.



i may not have power by time thursday night comes a round
Afternoon all! Just wondering...the high here in West Palm on Wednesday is forcast to be @ 60 with winds 20-25 mph. What would that make the wind chill factor? Thanks.
IDK if its just me, but it looks like 95L is seperating from the front now...maybe im wrong.
60F?

45-50F wind chill.. somewhere around there.
look at this

000
NOUS45 KREV 301909
PNSREV

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1100 AM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

A SNOWSTORM OF POTENTIALLY HISTORIC PROPORTIONS WILL AFFECT THE
SIERRA NEVADA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS
SNOWSTORM COULD RIVAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAT WERE SEEN IN SOME OF THE
MOST DEVASTATING SNOWSTORMS OF THE PAST 50 YEARS.

RESEARCH DONE ON HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE SIERRA HAS IDENTIFIED THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORMS TO AFFECT THE RANGE. LISTED BELOW ARE
THE TOP FIFTEEN SNOWSTORMS THAT DEPOSITED THE LARGEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON THE ENTIRE SIERRA DURING THE PAST HALF CENTURY. SNOWFALL
WITH THIS WEEKEND`S SNOWSTORM COULD EQUAL AMOUNTS SEEN AMONG THE TOP
FIVE ALL-TIME SIERRA SNOWSTORMS.

...................................................................

GREATEST SIERRA SNOWSTORMS (1949-50 THROUGH 2004-2005) WITH STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (IN.) AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS


CAN - CANYON DAM (PLUMAS COUNTY)
BOC - BOCA (NEVADA COUNTY)
CSS - CENTRAL SIERRA SNOW LAB (NEVADA-PLACER COUNTY)
TAH - TAHOE CITY (PLACER COUNTY)
GRG - GRANT GROVE (TULARE COUNTY)


CAN BOC CSS TAH GRG
1. JAN. 10-17, 1952 108.0 68.0 141.0 149.0 68.0
2. MAR. 28-APR. 1, 1982 26.0 47.0 125.5 59.0 63.0
3. MAR. 29-APR. 4, 1958 46.5 48.0 MM 98.5 69.0
4. DEC. 28, 1992-JAN. 2, 1993 74.0 47.0 76.6 57.5 MM
5. MAR. 21-24, 1995 32.0 26.0 100.6 74.0 59.0

6. MAR. 10-14, 1967 60.0 59.0 74.8 92.0 38.5
7. JAN. 31-FEB. 4, 1975 62.0 38.0 65.0 42.0 25.0
8. DEC. 27-31, 1964 46.0 42.0 87.2 77.0 26.0
9. FEB. 23-26, 1969 35.0 28.0 74.0 37.0 63.0
10. JAN. 27-30, 1981 24.0 24.0 72.0 40.0 48.0

11. DEC. 21-23, 1996 23.0 65.0 53.6 73.0 25.0
12. DEC. 29, 2004-JAN. 2, 2005 48.0 49.5 89.7 64.0 MM
13. FEB. 9-12, 1959 43.0 31.0 MM 43.0 64.0
14. FEB. 16-18, 1990 30.0 49.0 73.0 46.0 24.0
15. JAN. 20-23, 1997 34.0 18.0 73.4 44.0 35.0


MM - MISSING DATA

$$
Thanks Hades.....Gonna be a chilly one for natives down here. Can't wait!
Historic proportions...Wow...
they are forcasting 10ft may be more of snow fall for the mts
you're welcome
Check out the rainfall totals in south GA Link
Great for them. I hope they get a helluva lot more.
Wow Dr.Master's thank you for the update the last of 07
Tropics 101

Positive Feedback Loop:

Air rises

Air condenses

Releases heat of condensation

Warms a column of air

Warm air rises

Isobars kink downwards (low pressure)

Pressure gradient induces greater inflow

air inflow converges and rises

air condenses...and so on
314. JLPR
Hey everyone i invite you all to see my wunderphotos I uploaded 3 new ones today and I have others from before so come by and rate them it will be apreciated =D
JLPR, nice pictures! I uploaded some new ones too and would love some ratings!

95L seems to be struggling a little bit... elongated circulation?
Lol just got done reading one of Dr. M's blog entries from 2006 for TS Alberto...wow the blog was REALLY arguementative. "Alberto's dead there is no chance for it!..."TD 1 wont become Alberto its dissapating now!

It was pretty funny. Makes people really think about how things can change. Reminds me of 99L, which looked terrible but yet became Gabby. Hopefully people will know better for next year to be a bit more optimistic :D
BBL
318. JLPR
thanks CatastrophicDL you got some nice pictures yourself =)
456 i sent you some WU e mail
Daytime heating dissipates cloud over the Land.

The moist cool marine layer is full of clouds. Notice what happens to the wind flow as it hits the little island (arrow)

taz i already read it.
ok
95L looks to be making a bit of a comeback
Hello all.

Anyone have a forecast or could direct me/leave a link for central or northern california from now until day 7?

Thanks, looks like we have a lot of weather coming in and want to check it out.

Thanks
Patrick
Satellite imagery seems to suggest the frontal boundary weakening, and 95L seperating. Convection has redeveloped north of the center and overall the system appears better organized. Its a wild card system thats for sure.
Extreme, ur 100% correct


There is no longer a frontal boundary...its now decayed into a surface trof.
Invest 90S seems to be drifting East toward the Gulf of Carpentaria - it would likely rapidly organise/intensify once it reaches these extremely warm waters
Thx W456...I like to be 100% correct lol...well W456 wouldnt it be something if this thing became Arthur? lol
yea, 90S looks rather well organized for being overland...JTWC apparently thinks this thing has a chance. Should see our first Northern Territory system this year.
90S East of Darwin plus Intense East Coast Low generating 100 kph winds and swell that has closed all beaches on the Mid East Coast

TC Melanie isnt looking so good right now...should continue to weaken.
91S also has a nice curve band..BBL

yea 91S looks good as well as 90S...92S looks a little better as well.
Link

the above link is useful in translating the Meteo-France Tropical cyclone advisories into English
OPC sfc map also shows 95L no longer aassociated with the front.
i sent you some mail 456 with some new updates that this came in drop me a line this time when you look at your WU e mail its from the 3:00pm update
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT WEAKENS.


lol this is from the 7:05pm discussion. Well if its a cyclone then why isnt/wasnt it named :D

Well this may not get a name after all, but I look foreward to checking on it in the morning to see if there are any changes.
ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE IS INTERACTING WITH THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS SHOWN
AS INCREASED BAROCLINICITY OF THE SYSTEM AS ANALYZED BY THE FSU
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS.


Are you sure about that NHC? these dvorak numbers just came in... couldbe an error though


T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
lol I must be used to reading MF advisories to slightly understand the context.

LINK

Seychelles advisories write the text in both english and french when Metro France releases a warning.
evening...new blog is up.
Subtropical Depression...

The higher shear, increased baroclinicity along with the cooler sea surface temperatures suggest that the system has little chance at this point to become a named subtropical storm. The cyclone will begin to move southwest in the next couple of days as it weakens.