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Once Again a Cat 4 Storm, Potentially Disastrous Matthew Rolls Toward Florida Coast

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 6:27 PM GMT on October 06, 2016

Hurricane Matthew is once again an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm. Matthew’s top sustained winds were upgraded to 140 mph in the 11 am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, based on surface wind data collected by dropsondes (parachute-borne instrument packages) and the SFMR radiometer aboard Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Matthew’s central pressure dropped more than 12 millibars overnight, and a jump in surface winds typically follows such a drop after 12-24 hours. Hurricane Warnings are now in place from Broward County, Florida, to Ediston Beach, South Carolina. As of 2 pm EDT Thursday, Matthew’s sustained winds were holding at 140 mph, with the storm located about 125 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida. Update: See our post from 8 pm EDT Thursday for updated information on Matthew's strength and forecast.

Matthew’s eye, clearly visible on satellite, was approaching the north end of Andros Island in The Bahamas around noon on Thursday. The especially dangerous right-hand side of Matthew’s eyewall passed over or very near New Providence Island, including Nassau. Since the city lies on the north side of the island, it is shielded to a large extent from storm surge with a northwestward-moving hurricane such as Matthew.


Figure 1. This visible image on Oct. 6 at 1:00 p.m. EDT from NOAA's GOES-East satellite shows Hurricane Matthew as it regained Category 4 hurricane status. Hurricane Nicole is visible to the right. Image credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project.

The northwest Bahamas getting pounded
Over the past day, The Bahamas have taken a severe pounding from Hurricane Matthew. On Wednesday evening, the hurricane passed within 50 miles of Exuma, where WU member ExumaMET had this to report: Morning all. It was an intense night here. I recorded Sustained winds over 100 and gusts way into category 4 strength with one gust hitting 153 mph before something took out my instrument. We're still in tropical storm force and it should be interesting to see what the island looks like as the sun comes up.

At 2:19 am EDT Thursday, winds at a personal weather station (PWS) on Staniel Cay, Exumas, located in the strong right eyewall of Matthew, about 30 miles east-northeast of hurricane’s center, peaked at 92 mph, gusting to 101 mph. The pressure bottomed out at 984 mb at that time, and 14.13” of rain fell in the period midnight to 1 pm EDT.

After passing Exuma, Matthew marched northwest, passing between Andros Island to the west and New Providence Island to the east. The strongest winds of the right-front quadrant of Matthew hit New Providence between 9 - 11 am today. Winds at 9 am EDT at the Nassau airport on New Providence were 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph. The airport stopped transmitting data after that, as did the four PWS’s on the island. It is likely that the island experienced a ten-foot storm surge on the south shore.

Matthew is continuing northwest, and will pass between the Berry Islands and Grand Bahama Island this afternoon and this evening. At 2 pm EDT Thursday, an automated station in the Berry Islands, located about 50 miles to the northeast of Matthew’s center, reported a sustained wind of 59 mph, with gusts to 76 mph. A personal weather station (PWS) on the Berry Islands reported sustained winds of 85 mph—but the quality of the wind data was suspect. The pressure was 971 mb.

Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island will be in the northeast eyewall of Matthew at approximately 8 pm tonight. As of 1 pm EDT, the winds were 43 mph, gusting to 47 mph.


Figure 2. Latest NHC forecast for Hurricane Matthew as of 11 am EDT Thursday, October 6, 2016.

The forecast for Matthew through Friday
Matthew may well strengthen further on Thursday afternoon and evening, but there is only a small chance (estimated at 23% in the 12Z Thursday SHIPS model) that it will reach Category 5 strength. More likely, Matthew will approach the Florida coast tonight as a Category 4 storm, then slide up the coast on Friday with a gradual weakening trend, as greater wind shear, drier air, and land interactions take their toll. How long Matthew retains its strength depends largely on how long the center stays entirely offshore, rolls along the coast, or nudges just inland at some point.

Confidence is now very high with Matthew’s large-scale track through Saturday, as the hurricane will be tracing a very predictable loop around the west side of high pressure over the western Atlantic. The challenge is on the smaller scale, where variations of just 20 or 30 miles relative to the shore can make a great difference in terms of impact. The uncertainty in Matthew’s east-west position near the shore means that coastal residents in central and northern Florida must prepare for the possibility of receiving winds from Matthew’s eyewall, as well as the potential for record-smashing storm surge in some parts of northern Florida and Georgia (see embedded tweet at bottom).

The small-scale uncertainty in Matthew’s track does not affect the larger-scale picture, which includes:
—Winds of tropical storm strength (40 - 75 mph) across the eastern half of the Florida peninsula from Lake Okeechobee northward, including Orlando.
—Rainfall totals of 5” to 15” within 50 miles of the coast from central Florida to southern North Carolina. Rainfall of 3” - 6” could extend further north across eastern North Carolina. Falling atop ground saturated by recent rains, this could produce widespread flooding far north of Matthew’s center and will raise the risk of power outages (see Figure 4 below), as gusty winds bring down trees in soggy soil.


Figure 3. Probability of hurricane-force winds from Matthew for the 120 hours from 8 am EDT Thursday, October 6, to Tuesday, October 11. Probabilities are highest (greater than 70%) along the immediate coast from around Port St. Lucie to Cape Canaveral. There is a greater than 90% chance of tropical-storm-force winds as far west as Lake Okeechobee and Orlando. Matthew’s peak winds were upgraded following the creation of this image, but the breadth of the expected wind swath has not changed significantly. Image credit: NOAA/NHC.

A unique storm in Florida hurricane annals
There are no ideal analogs for Matthew’s expected track and strength along the Florida coast. Only a handful of hurricanes have struck Florida with winds as strong as Matthew’s current 140 mph, and the only hurricanes known to have been “coast scrapers” along the central and northern Florida coast were considerably weaker than Matthew. For most residents along the north half of Florida’s Atlantic coast, and perhaps the Georgia coast as well, Matthew will be the strongest hurricane in living memory. (The last major hurricane to affect the Jacksonville area was in 1898.) Breaking waves as high as 15 to 25 feet on top of potential major storm surge are likely to inflict severe damage to beaches and barrier islands along the central and northern Florida coast.

Matthew is on track to become the first major hurricane to make landfall on U.S. shores since Wilma in 2005. It is virtually certain to be the most destructive since Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy in 2012, and it could easily end up among the ten most expensive landfalls in U.S. history adjusted for inflation, perhaps rivaling or topping such recent storms as Wilma, Irene (2011), Ike (2008), Ivan (2004), and Charley (2004). Latest estimates from a University of Michigan-based research group are that as many as 9.6 million people from Florida to North Carolina may lose power as a result of Matthew.


Figure 4. Estimated fraction of the population that is projected to experience power outages with the passage of Hurricane Matthew, based on data from early Thursday morning. Even though Matthew will pass well south of North Carolina, strong winds below hurricane strength combined with very heavy rains will pose the risk of tree damage and outages.

A quick guide to potential impacts
Below is a general summary of potential impacts from Matthew as of midday Thursday. For the latest local details, be sure to check the NWS local statements page, and heed any evacuation advice from local authorities.

FL Treasure Coast (including Port St. Lucie and Vero Beach)
There is still a chance Matthew will make landfall as far south as Port St. Lucie, but movement trends and computer model guidance suggest that the center is more likely to be just offshore by late Thursday night, moving along the coast and very gradually toward it. This would put some or all of the Treasure Coast in the western eyewall of Matthew, where sustained winds would probably be less than Category 4 strength but still potentially very damaging. A storm surge of up to 5 to 8 feet is expected on the barrier islands of Martin and Saint Lucie counties, with the surge risk highest if Matthew does edge inland along the Treasure Coast.

FL Space Coast (including Melbourne and the Kennedy Space Center)
This is the most likely area to experience the highest winds from Matthew (see Figure 3 above) with Daytona Beach at high risk. The wind threat is especially serious at Cape Canaveral, which juts out into the Atlantic about 10-15 miles. If Matthew does make landfall along the Florida coast, this would be the most likely spot for it. Billions of dollars of facilities and equipment are at risk at Kennedy Space Center and nearby bases, which have never before experienced a major hurricane. Some of KSC’s older facilities were designed only to withstand Category 2 or 3 winds, while facilities built after Hurricane Andrew (1992) are designed to withstand Category 4 or 5 storms. Storm surge could reach 7 to 11 feet over the barrier islands of Volusia and Brevard counties. Matthew is likely to traverse the Space Coast during the overnight hours Thursday. (Ironically, the GOES-R satellite—originally scheduled to be airborne by now, where it would be gathering data on Matthew—is instead at the space center, awaiting its rescheduled launch in November.)

FL First Coast (including St. Augustine and Jacksonville)
The wind threat here will hinge not only on Matthew’s track but also on whether some or all of the storm’s eyewall makes it inland further south and is weakened by land interaction. Even if Matthew is curving slightly offshore by this point, winds of at least Category 1 strength can be expected along the immediate coast, with somewhat lesser winds toward the west side of the Jacksonville metro area. Severe flooding is possible at the coast and along the St. Johns River east of Jacksonville. The area should experience its greatest impacts from Matthew on Friday morning, although surge could intensify a number of hours before Matthew’s arrival. Storm surge flooding could reach 6 to 9 feet at St. Augustine and Jacksonville Beach, as well as Fernandina Beach and Amelia City to the north.

Georgia and South Carolina Coast
Matthew’s track should be gradually edging away from the coast by the time it nears Georgia late Friday, but the hurricane may still be at Category 1 strength less than 100 miles from Hilton Head, South Carolina, by Saturday morning. The concave angle of the GA/SC coastline combined with Matthew’s gradual approach could lead to very dangerous high-water impacts as Matthew approaches. Storm surge flooding is expected to be 7 to 9 feet over southeast Georgia, with isolated amounts up to 11 feet, and 3 to 5 feet in southeast South Carolina, with isolated amounts up to 8 feet. Heavy rains to the north of Matthew will exacerbate the risk of flooding, especially near the coast.


Figure 5. Hurricane Nicole (far right) was more than 700 miles east of Hurricane Matthew (far left) at 1:37 pm EDT Thursday, October 6, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Nicole now a hurricane
While all eyes are on Matthew (and rightly so), the sixth hurricane of this busy Atlantic season has developed far to the east. Compact Hurricane Nicole was centered about 345 miles south of Bermuda as of 2:00 pm EDT, with top sustained winds of 80 mph. Steering currents are quite weak around Nicole, and it is likely to meander across the open Northwest Atlantic for the next several days, perhaps strengthening a bit more before it weakens early next week. Nicole and Matthew are now separated by about 1350 kilometers, which is the maximum distance where we need to take into account the Fujiwhara effect (the tendency for two tropical cyclones near each other to rotate around a common midpoint). Since Matthew is moving further away from Nicole with time, and is so much stronger than Nicole, we need not worry about the Fujiwhara effect at this point as a major steering influence on Matthew.

We’ll be back with an update on Thursday night.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters





Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 964. yankees440:


Hmmm..not quite sure what to make of that inner eye wall West jog?
Plus, the outer eyewall seems to be contracting and the inner one expanding.
1002. intampa
has anyone posted a video of how to do the 'wobble dance" yet ? its all the rage on those cruise ships. speaking of .... i wonder whats going on with anyone leaving for cruises today out of Florida? other than lots of seasick bags and pills.
The inner eye wall that many thought would disappear is now expanding. This will be interesting. I wonder if we'll get a new inner eye wall to form?
Matthew got poked in the eye during the Freeport game.
1005. Patrap
Quoting 982. VibrantPlanet:


This may be indicative of the push west that some models were indicating would happen when the high to the east encroached faster. Wonder what trends are going on with that high right now?








Convection burst has increased the CDO on the northern side- not a good sign.
Its a wobble, local Mets are talking about it as well. Lets see what it does next. I stuck indoors with my shutters up so I am tracking the hurricane. 1 wobble could make a big difference in some places.

Quoting 951. shader98:

If you're a "wobble watcher", then surely you're going to comment on how it has quickly "wobbled west"
1008. IDTH
I'm back. Just what I was thinking, I would nap and the northern part would blow up.


So many Haitians suffered and even died because they didn't have the benefits of transport and early warnings.

It's frustrating that some Floridians are squandering their blessings by ignoring evacuation orders.
darkness falls with it the banshee screams will be heard this night
1011. Canenut
Estimated 935.1 now... not the best looking eyewall but still showing growth
Quoting 956. HighOnHurricanes:



Looking at that radar image, as well the improving CDO in the satellite presentation - and lightning in the inner eyewall - is it all possible that: instead of the traditional EWRC where the inner eyewall breaks down and the outer eyewall becomes dominant, the opposite happens here? That the inner core is able to "retake control" and pull the convection towards it, forcing the outer eyewall to breakdown instead?

I don't know if that has ever happened (or been documented), but it seems like that area between the two is filling in rather than seeing degradation of the inner eyewall.


I don't quite know the mechanism at work, but this may turn out to be one of the quickest EWRC I've ever seen. Not ready to sat that Matthew has peaked, but certainly hope so for those in its path.


Wind radius increasing on the western side...
I must be missing all the people who said it wobbled east and will miss the coast all together commenting on the continued nw movement and recent wobble to the west.... hmm
Also, blog hole.
Dropsonde measured 113kt surface winds with a pressure of 944mb and winds of 129/136kts at ~300/750 feet above the surface. Link
Quoting 834. SavannahStorm:

The new GFS is a catastrophe for GA and SC- no Fl landfall, landfall in SC as a Cat 4... Oh God...


What do you expect, they were the original target to begin with, according to my intuitive early-season forecast. http://forums.armageddononline.org/threads/42963-S C-Governor-Nikki-Haley-s-Beach-Renourishment-Proje ct-in-Attempt-to-Undo-1-000-Year-Flood-Event
1018. Smitter
Quoting 936. Hurricanes101:



I always thought it was when the center of the eye went across the coast. The whole eye does not need to be over land 50% of the eye is what I recall
Quoting 967. newportrinative:


Personally I am offended. I keep my political and religious beliefs to myself and do not broadcast them on blogs. If it's ok then I guess we can all post. Can I start posting phases that may give others comfort and offend some? If prayers give you comfort then pray, but come on, dont post on a weather blog. Isn't that what we are suppose to do, keep it relevant to weather?


if the guy constantly re-posted over and over again, yeah its a drag. but to attack people for their beliefs in the midst of a disaster is ridiculous.

you have lots of eyes on this blog, not just regular weather geeks. I defend the scripture post not because of anything other than the guy didn't deserve to get attacked. Period.
Sending positive vibes your way!

Quoting 960. hurricanewatcher61:

What concerns me is that I may not have a job to go back to since I work on Merritt Island, surge is going to be something. I was born and raised there now in Melbourne, going to be sad :(
Quoting 1000. ElConando:

Guys the storm is still headings NW, the inner eye wall is breaking up and the outer eyewall is taking over it seems.


if you look at rader its moveing due W


Link
Looks like it's just sitting there. Freeport is getting the full power of this storm! Yikes
will the space coast run out of luck? climo says no but the nhc says yes. good luck all
14L/MH/M/C4
1025. will45
Quoting 988. ncstorm:

So did sh*t just hit the fan?

NBC Nightly News ‏@NBCNightlyNews 48m48 minutes ago

JUST IN: North Carolina Gov. McCrory orders State of Emergency for all counties ahead of Hurricane Matthew.




uh hu looks that way he musta saw the GFS 18Z lols
Quoting 982. VibrantPlanet:


This may be indicative of the push west that some models were indicating would happen when the high to the east encroached faster. Wonder what trends are going on with that high right now?


Did mats eyewall just open up?
Or is that a radar issue?
I have not been on all day. Has there been talk of eyewall replacement?
1027. patxboy
Quoting 984. WatchingThisOne:



Have not seen any of that from Drudge. In fact, he linked to the very "non-hype" video update from Levi today.


You didn't look particularly closely then

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/46442_Mat t_Drudge_Pushes_Dangerous_Conspiracy_Theory_That_t he_Government_Is_Lying_About_the_Strength_of_Hurri cane_Matthew
Quoting 977. JoeInTampa:

Stalled now for a few frames, apparently. Getting ready to jog N?


Matt's concentrating his core, like a ballerina pulling in to spin fast. This may be his last go to strengthen before other forces begin trending him downward. He will become better organized throughout tonight. The ? will be to what degree. He will likely max out late tonight early tomorrow morning.
1029. Patrap
Some early land friction will come intyo play tonight.

The nado threat will increase overnight.

Many are tired.

A major beats you up inside and out even before it arrives.

Be vigilante tonight.


A NOAA radio will alert one with tone then msg.

You have ty know to be alert tonight.

Roll info forward when you get it.

We will roll all nado warnings when they come.

Local action statement's are your guide.
Quoting 964. yankees440:


Hmmm..not quite sure what to make of that inner eye wall West jog?


could do an eyewall replacement cycle and what seems to be a west jog then turns into a general northwestward move, but if the eye gets bigger then ... catch 22
1031. IDTH
.
IMO, we should all heed the Admin Notice and ignore users who post things that are considered offensive - Ignore instructions at the beginning of the Comments section
Quoting 931. lightningjolt:


that westward hint may be why sarasota was just put on alert


Sarasota's weather status has been the same all day. No new alert.
Dropsonde measured 939mb with 7kt winds in the center - Link So around 938-939mb.
Quoting 1013. SavannahStorm:



Wind radius increasing on the western side...


Took my comment right from my mouth ;) I Agree.
EXTREMELY impressed with Gov. Haley's response. Just left Garden City, SC... every street corner has law enforcement and the National Guard in place ready to go. I don't care who complains, it was necessary as the track was insane all week... she did exactly what she should have. Praying for all to be safe. Kim Murrells Inlet SC
Quoting 984. WatchingThisOne:



Have not seen any of that from Drudge. In fact, he linked to the very "non-hype" video update from Levi today.


Some links of Drudge tweets from the last couple hours, where he suggests that the Hurricane warnings are part of a conspiracy and wonders why NHC has a "monopoly" on weather data:

https://twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/784121449606852 608

http://twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/7841304446147051 52

Screenshot in case he deletes: http://t.co/KDUcVzYfFA

Pretty irresponsible if you ask me. If he was posting on here he'd get shouted down!
1038. IKE
Looks like it's close to completing an EWRC.
Quoting 1005. Patrap:








How big were the cyclonic "wobbles" when it was heading north on 75W?
1040. apm2084
Very true. There are shelters all around that can and will save lives. People in my shelter are talking about friends that they couldn't convince to eave...their mobile home! Hopefully they got smart.
Quoting 1009. skennedy789:

So many Haitians suffered and even died because they didn't have the benefits of transport and early warnings.

It's frustrating that some Floridians are squandering their blessings by ignoring evacuation orders.
Quoting 960. hurricanewatcher61:

What concerns me is that I may not have a job to go back to since I work on Merritt Island, surge is going to be something. I was born and raised there now in Melbourne, going to be sad :(

Pretty sure my wife will not have a job to go back too. She works about a half a mile inland from Cocoa Beach.
Close to Cat 2. Possibly a major tonight?
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 OCT 2016 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 27:21:40 N Lon : 65:02:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 973.9mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 3.9
Looks like it's going west for the moment. Can anyone confirm this?
I am just a little annoyed that the Miami radio 610 is 'ok eye is past all is well,' Broward and Palm Beach 'out of the cone now all is well'. In the upper keys here. we getting some good gusts. And what is 'it has moved east all is well.' It's nuts The storm is one big circle not just a half top of a storm. Looking at the radar, Palm beach is about to get pounded, not by the eye but one of the outer bands. The storm is 140mph not a 100 mph just off shore around a 100 miles give or take.
1045. Dakster
Quoting 1029. Patrap:

Some early land friction will come intyo play tonight.

The nado threat will increase overnight.

Many are tired.

A major beats you up inside and out even before it arrives.

Be vigilante tonight.


A NOAA radio will alert one with tone then msg.

You have ty know to be alert tonight.

Roll info forward when you get it.

We will roll all nado warnings when they come.

Local action statement's are your guide.


You must be glad to sit this one out Patrap...
Quoting 1042. HurricaneAndre:

Close to Cat 2. Possibly a major tonight?
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 OCT 2016 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 27:21:40 N Lon : 65:02:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 973.9mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 3.9



what storm is thay and please dont get the storm mixed up please put the named of the storm
1047. IDTH

Quoting 1020. bocahurricane:

Sending positive vibes your way!



i am seriously offended by your use of the term "vibes." Please keep your "viby-ness off my weather blog!"

Sarcasm Flag: IN OVERDRIVE !!



Quoting 1046. thetwilightzone:




what storm is thay and please dont get the storm mixed up please put the named of the storm
Okay. Well Taz, that's Nicole.
Quoting 1043. hurricaneman23:

Looks like it's going west for the moment. Can anyone confirm this?


It's a jog so technically yes. But as for the long term track, still sorta NW. But should keep getting closer to FL. No one should discount a FL landfall until Jacksonville.

So basically from West Palm up, every jog matters.
Quoting 1042. HurricaneAndre:

Close to Cat 2. Possibly a major tonight?
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 OCT 2016 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 27:21:40 N Lon : 65:02:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 973.9mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 3.9


Oh wow completely overlooked Nicole!



Eye is warming quite nicely on last frame with intense convection wrapping around... Would not surprise me if she did make a run for major status!
1052. Smitter
Quoting 956. HighOnHurricanes:



Looking at that radar image, as well the improving CDO in the satellite presentation - and lightning in the inner eyewall - is it all possible that: instead of the traditional EWRC where the inner eyewall breaks down and the outer eyewall becomes dominant, the opposite happens here? That the inner core is able to "retake control" and pull the convection towards it, forcing the outer eyewall to breakdown instead?

I don't know if that has ever happened (or been documented), but it seems like that area between the two is filling in rather than seeing degradation of the inner eyewall.
Looks like it's about to be completed and is strengthening.
Quoting 1049. HurricaneAndre:

Okay. Well Taz, that's Nicole.


thanks i dont think any one really cares about Nicole right now we have a land falling cat 4 storm mat and all eye are on that right now and not some in that going too be staying out sea so whats keep the topic on mat thanks
1054. IDTH
This was the statement that should hopefully wake up Floridians.


18z HWRF

It not making landfall in FL might prove better for S FL, but it will prove worse for the rest of the FL, GA, SC, and NC coasts as it won't weaken as much when shooting up the coast, which could result in much more widespread damage and loss of life.
Quoting 1023. islander101010:

will the space coast run out of luck? climo says no but the nhc says yes. good luck all

Unfortunately I have to agree with the NHC based on how accurate their track has been
Quoting 978. truecajun:



I'm not sure what you mean. The eye gets busted up, for lack of a better phrase coming to mind at the moment, during landfall. Then once back over water it can close itself off again and strengthen

This is a very simple basic explanation, but I'm still not quite certain what you are asking.


Thanks.....weather underground makes a storm/radar map app. I'm looking at the radar for 5 hrs plus with overlay layers. It just appeared the eye disappeared when looking at that. However, I'm not seeing it in any other forecast model, guide etc..

So I was just wondering why and how accurate it actually was.
1059. JM2
Lots of wobbling right now, movement W after hours of nothing but WNW, NNW, NW... now the inner eye wall is collapsing? After watching this all day it appears to be interesting just as local weather (N Broward) has become completely boring and predictable.
1060. Michfan
Quoting 1045. Dakster:



You must be glad to sit this one out Patrap...


Not over yet, he's suppose to loop and come back in the Gulf, but yes, us in Katrina Kountry are thankful this isn't our storm, tho we pray for everyone in it's path
Quoting 1026. QueensWreath:



Did mats eyewall just open up?
Or is that a radar issue?
I have not been on all day. Has there been talk of eyewall replacement?


Seemed to, at the Freeport landfall.
Any chance this thing slows down and does not get picked up to the east? Looks like slowing down some- just asking
'cause I don't know.
Looks like the inner eye wall is starting to get suffocated, showing the EWRC is proceeding fairly quickly. Southen side of the eye wall is open and it seems a band of the second eye wall is coming in to replace it. Even with the EWRC pressures are dropping fairly quickly (4 mb in a pass according to Extrap pressure). Not looking good.
Quoting 1053. thetwilightzone:



thanks i dont think any one really cares about Nicole right now we have a land falling cat 4 storm mat and all eye are on that right now and not some in that going too be staying out sea so whats keep the topic on mat thanks


It's on topic. It's tropical weather, it's part of this entry written by the Doc. The comments will be 95% Matthew-related anyway, leave it be man.
1067. u52983
Quoting 1059. JM2:

Lots of wobbling right now, movement W after hours of nothing but WNW, NNW, NW... now the inner eye wall is collapsing? After watching this all day it appears to be interesting just as local weather (N Broward) has become completely boring and predictable.

The concentric eyes are undoubtedly increasing the wobble. Put a ball inside an outer ball, and roll this combo across the floor. (There are kid's toys like this.) The inertia of the inner ball will make the outer ball wobble, and the exact path of the inner ball through space is a crazy zigzag. I've never seen anything like Matthew's concentric eyes so well defined.

At the very least, the concentric eyes, with the inner one dancing around inside the outer one, are making it harder for us to track where the bulk of this damaging storm is headed. Reports of slight turns one way or another are therefore not very meaningful.
The westward jog appears to have resolved itself back close to the 325 degree Merritt Island path, but meanwhile, like Levi hints, the hurricane appears to gaining a bit of strength.
1069. Michfan
Anyone got a link to the euro ensembles.
1070. Patrap
Didn't someone earlier talk about the eye becoming an egg shape and it showing the direction it was heading? If that is true it looks like Matt wants to come to West Palm Beach.

Quoting 968. JNFlori30A:

oof WNW
1072. Proflaw
Quoting 1044. waterskiman:

I am just a little annoyed that the Miami radio 610 is ok eye is past all is well, Broward and Palm Beach out of the cone now all is well. In the upper keys here. we getting some good gusts. And what is it has moved east all is well. It's nuts The storm is one big circle not just a half top of a storm. Looking at the radar, Palm beach is about to get pounded, not by the eye but one of the outer bands. The storm is 140 not a 100 just off shore around a 100 miles give or take.


If you're annoyed, turn off the radio. That's why it has a power switch. Then you can get a life.
1073. beell
Probably in the eyewall.
Winds are meters per second (m/sec*2=approx wind speed in knots)





Convection is definitely closing in around the inner eye wall. The outer eye wall that looked impressive and carried 70+ mph winds for hours, is also not looking impressive. This thing is about to get its act together quickly.
Quoting 1027. patxboy:



You didn't look particularly closely then

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/46442_Mat t_Drudge_Pushes_Dangerous_Conspiracy_Theory_That_t he_Government_Is_Lying_About_the_Strength_of_Hurri cane_Matthew


Quite so. I don't follow his Twitter feed, nor littlegreenfootballs.com.
Quoting 1044. waterskiman:

I am just a little annoyed that the Miami radio 610 is ok eye is past all is well, Broward and Palm Beach out of the cone now all is well. In the upper keys here. we getting some good gusts. And what is it has moved east all is well. It's nuts The storm is one big circle not just a half top of a storm. Looking at the radar, Palm beach is about to get pounded, not by the eye but one of the outer bands. The storm is 140 not a 100 just off shore around a 100 miles give or take.


Agreed. That's all I hear. It's offshore.....really????
1077. Patrap
Did this storm just hit the gulf stream and tighten up and some how complete a EWRC without collapsing inner eye?

Looking at the satellite it appears to have just leveled up.
1079. Smitter
Quoting 998. muddertracker:

Inner eye just broke apart on radar. Interesting.

Link
Yes now we will see Matthew deepen all the way to landfall with expanding winds like the hwrf hinted at. Sub 930 landfall very possible. The NHC has not been able to forecast Strength. Tract they have done a amazing job.
Quoting 1070. Patrap:


''
I love when you post these tracks
1081. LargoFl
Quoting 1054. IDTH:

This was the statement that should hopefully wake up Floridians.



thank you for posting this, hopefully some will heed his warning and save their lives.
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 22:40Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 30
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 22:09:52Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2620'N 7848'W (26.3333N 78.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 82 statute miles (133 km) to the ESE (108) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,571m (8,435ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 135 at 115kts (From the SE at ~ 132.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NE (44) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 939mb (27.73 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11C (52F) at a pressure alt. of 3,074m (10,085ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20C (68F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11C (52F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 121kts (~ 139.2mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (41) from the flight level center at 19:20:24Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20C (68F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SW (226) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 100 at 7kts (From the E at 8mph)

The outer eye has decreased by 10 nautical miles in diameter since the last pass.
Nicole doesn't want her big brother to show her up so easily.In other words she doesn't want a Earl-Fiona 2010 situation to occur....
1084. IDTH
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 OCT 2016 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 26:16:09 N Lon : 78:38:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 949.6mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.5C Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.9 degrees


I wasn't posting these earlier but when the northern quadrant was lacking convection it was much lower, now going up. Ignore the dissipation flag. Pay attention to the numbers because that's indicative of a storm that is starting to fire some colder cloud tops.
1085. bwi
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 22:40Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 30
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 22:09:52Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°20'N 78°48'W (26.3333N 78.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 82 statute miles (133 km) to the ESE (108°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,571m (8,435ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 135° at 115kts (From the SE at ~ 132.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 939mb (27.73 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,074m (10,085ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 121kts (~ 139.2mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (41°) from the flight level center at 19:20:24Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SW (226°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 100° at 7kts (From the E at 8mph)
Quoting 1019. TBayEyes:



if the guy constantly re-posted over and over again, yeah its a drag. but to attack people for their beliefs in the midst of a disaster is ridiculous.

you have lots of eyes on this blog, not just regular weather geeks. I defend the scripture post not because of anything other than the guy didn't deserve to get attacked. Period.


I didn't attack anyone.
1087. V26R
Michfan, did anyone get you the info?
Had a friends who's parents didn't want to evac. I told him to send them a picture of Hurricane Ike and the power of storm surge.
Moved our HS football game to tonight and here I am on top of the press box videoing and feeling a constant blow. Sustained winds about 15 mph I'd bet. I really don't know where to check.
1090. Patrap
Rearing the current PA/and discussion on the NHC home page is a good place to start.

Always.

🌊🌅🎑🌎🌜
Quoting 1024. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

14L/MH/M/C4

Keeper, you were very consistent with the northern trek up 75W, even when it was overshot. How big were those later cyclonic wobbles? Something like 50 miles?
The temp difference between inside the eye and outside has increased by 3C (5f) since last pass.....


All signs pointing towards a healthy strengthening system.
Quoting 1037. mehmattski:



Some links of Drudge tweets from the last couple hours, where he suggests that the Hurricane warnings are part of a conspiracy and wonders why NHC has a "monopoly" on weather data:

https://twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/784121449606852 608

http://twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/7841304446147051 52

Screenshot in case he deletes: http://t.co/KDUcVzYfFA

Pretty irresponsible if you ask me. If he was posting on here he'd get shouted down!


Hurricanes have a well known liberal bias. :P

Some people...
Hey guys, long time lurker coming to you from DeLand, Florida. We're expecting easily hurricane force winds here, I'll try to keep the blog updated. Also, any indication that a Eye Wall Replacement Cycle is starting. Looks like the eye wall might be collapsing in recent radar signatures.
1095. A4Guy
On radar the storm looks very well organized...but if you didn't have any info from the NHC, looking at both radar and satellite presentation, you would never think this was a Cat 4 storm. Not overly impressive presentation, overall. The peak winds must be in a very very narrow band. I don't think Nassau had reported winds over 100 mph - did they?
wow last few visible frames shows that eye about to clear out with a burst of energy expanding in all directions.

click for the loops.


1098. bwi

Gulf stream has made Mathew explode tonight, don't like the fact there is a another 12 hours over it. Outer Eye wall seems to have given way back towards the inner one, weird situation there.
1101. Michfan
Quoting 1087. V26R:

Michfan, did anyone get you the info?


Nope. I know the Euro ensembles are a paid feature so it is hard to come by. Only i time i see them is when Dr. Masters posts them. Not even Levi has access to them on his site.
1102. IDTH

.
It looks like the inner eye is closing back in that last frame from the Miami Radar. It's hard to tell who's taking over who. The radar also has to look through mountains of cloud tops before it gets to the eye, so hard to tell.
Jump to the west is significant for the east coast.


1106. IDTH
This was an update from Mark Sudduth 1 hour ago. He sounds about as concerned as Norcross.

Link
Wow, did you see the statement from Bryan Norcross on TWC telling people to get out!?

https://www.facebook.com/wunderground/videos/1015 3897871296198/
still a ch that tonight we could see a new round of RI wish may bring this storm too 155 too 165 mph be for land fall
Has the blog froze or is everyone gone?
1110. JM2
Quoting 1095. A4Guy:

On radar the storm looks very well organized...but if you didn't have any info from the NHC, looking at both radar and satellite presentation, you would never think this was a Cat 4 storm. Not overly impressive presentation, overall. The peak winds must be in a very very narrow band. I don't think Nassau had reported winds over 100 mph - did they?

Yes, yes and yes. The closest reporting station I could find is this buoy: https://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/SPGF1.html?g raphtype=3
Quoting 1095. A4Guy:

On radar the storm looks very well organized...but if you didn't have any info from the NHC, looking at both radar and satellite presentation, you would never think this was a Cat 4 storm. Not overly impressive presentation, overall. The peak winds must be in a very very narrow band. I don't think Nassau had reported winds over 100 mph - did they?




This shot always returns perspective for me when my eyes go googly with radar and WV.
1112. IDTH

Is the blog froze again?
1114. V26R
Quoting 1101. Michfan:



Nope. I know the Euro ensembles are a paid feature so it is hard to come by. Only i time i see them is when Dr. Masters posts them. Not even Levi has access to them on his site.


Im not sure if that was what you were looking for , but hope it helps, check your mailbox
Blog having issues again??
Posted 7:26 EST
With the death toll in Haiti rising to at least 283, the combined toll from the 2016 season now stands at 371, which is more than any single season since 2008 (1047 dead, mostly from Gustav/Hanna/Ike).
Quoting 1091. Bigwinds:

Keeper, you were very consistent with the northern trek up 75W, even when it was overshot. How big were those later cyclonic wobbles? Something like 50 miles?
yeah but the important part was only till cuba eastern end or hati after that I was unknown as to which way it would go but not anymore

The grey zone is over FL now..


Area Data buoys:

Lake worth Pier: Winds: N (10°) at 40.0 kt gusting to 47.0 kt
Port Everglades: Winds: WNW (300°) at 19.0 kt gusting to 27.0 kt
Florida inst. of technology: Winds: NNE (30°) at 25.1 kt

Buoy at west end of Grand Bahama: Winds: NE (40°) at 65.1 kt gusting to 76.0 kt
1120. IDTH
Quoting 1084. IDTH:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 OCT 2016 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 26:16:09 N Lon : 78:38:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 949.6mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.5C Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.9 degrees


I wasn't posting these earlier but when the northern quadrant was lacking convection it was much lower, now going up. Ignore the dissipation flag. Pay attention to the numbers because that's indicative of a storm that is starting to fire some colder cloud tops.

Should have specified that I'm talking about Matthew. My bad.
Is the Blog gone down
Quoting 1096. TBayEyes:

wow last few visible frames shows that eye about to clear out with a burst of energy expanding in all directions.

click for the loops.




That looks like a massive expansion. I hope it does not have time to recover eyewall strength. But It has enough time I fear.
Quoting 1089. JrWeathermanFL:

Moved our HS football game to tonight and here I am on top of the press box videoing and feeling a constant blow. Sustained winds about 15 mph I'd bet. I really don't know where to check.


What's your particular location? City?
I noticed that as well. Maybe the influence of the warmer gulf stream waters??
Quoting 1096. TBayEyes:

wow last few visible frames shows that eye about to clear out with a burst of energy expanding in all directions.

click for the loops.


Quoting 1100. masiello3:

Gulf stream has made Mathew explode tonight, don't like the fact there is a another 12 hours over it. Outer Eye wall seems to have given way back towards the inner one, weird situation there.

1126. IDTH
This P*sses me off. REALLY WU!?!?!
Did the blog disappear?
1128. nash36
1129. Soflo
Reporting in boynton beach some tropical winds possible of gust but nothing we haven't saw with the normal thunderstorm. Hope we get a little more action. West jog is interning though. Well see🌀
1130. no1der
Quoting 1037. mehmattski:



Some links of Drudge tweets from the last couple hours, where he suggests that the Hurricane warnings are part of a conspiracy and wonders why NHC has a "monopoly" on weather data:

https://twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/784121449606852 608

http://twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/7841304446147051 52

Screenshot in case he deletes: http://t.co/KDUcVzYfFA

Pretty irresponsible if you ask me. If he was posting on here he'd get shouted down!




How utterly deplorable.
Emily notably had concentric eyewalls in her Mexico landfall back in 2005.
Hey gatoralex..my brother and family there..hope ya'll stay safe...crosscreek sub
18z HWRF does not make landfall in FLA either, but a disaster for Charleston.



1135. HrDelta
Quoting 1109. catastropheadjuster:

Has the blog froze or is everyone gone?

Froze. I have been trying off and on for over an hour to comment, or to see an update. Nothing until the last minute.
1136. V26R



AHHHHHH!
1137. vis0
image host

IGNORE the magenta faded oblate area  WAS for another private site and my zilly blog.

constant meditation / prayer sending what i hope are wise thoughts for those in the path and those that stayed within the danger zone which is

not good but lets keep them on a positive level and post why not  LATER for now find the safest area and wait till you hear Auld Lang Syne

(which as a kid i sing Old Langs eye...poor Lang) of New years day celebrations to get up.  TWI don't u dare sing it now.
Any chance matthew won't make the loop and continue north up the east coast?
LONGTIME lurker. First, I would like to say thanks to the veterans on this blog for their outstanding insight, as well as Dr. Masters himself. I truly believe that all of you may very well have saved lives today, and I am certain that you have saved lives during other storms as well. I enjoy watching the great among you do your thing. For the others, well, I figured out how to use the ignore feature a LONG time ago.
I am growing a little concerned about the possible impacts on extreme eastern Pasco county. I work at Saint Leo University, and I am essential personnel, and the students really haven't been properly warned of the possible impacts of tropical storm force winds and the damage they can do. Imagine 3500 18-25 years old's that make terrible decisions under normal circumstances, much less during this storm. I have been following the Hurricane statements by the NHC, and all forecast data. I am curious about how bad things might get here if the center of the storm takes a more westerly path, or wobbles while inland (If it makes landfall). I am obviously not expecting hurricane force winds, but are STRONG tropical storm force winds possible? Saint Leo, BTW, is a shelter for Pasco County, so if something dramatic happens, they will be safe if we have to move people to designated safe buildings. We are 55.43 miles from Orlando, and 101.43 miles from Cape Canaveral, on a heading of 087, so basically it's due east of us. (Google Earth Measurements). Thanks for any answers!
Folks. If WU really believed in a "catastrophe" then we would be seeing more updates instead of disappearing, eating sushi, meditating, and trying not to swear. Follow the doctors orders and Keep Calm And Carry On. Think of the Election to keep your mind off things.
Who broke the blog?
my God.... Freeport has been in the Eastern eyewall for two hours now, it just isn't moving for some reason. I can't imagine what's going on there, the entire city is probably under water at this point.
How much more time does Matthew have over water before possibly making landfall?
Blog hole?
blog freeze?
Quoting 1094. GatorAlex:

Hey guys, long time lurker coming to you from DeLand, Florida. We're expecting easily hurricane force winds here, I'll try to keep the blog updated. Also, any indication that a Eye Wall Replacement Cycle is starting. Looks like the eye wall might be collapsing in recent radar signatures.


Hi, I am a snowbird in Ohio who was planning to return next week for six months to the house I bought in east Deland in 2014. Keep us posted. All of my neighbors down there have evacuated, so there will be nobody to tell me if any of my huge oaks fall and crush the house. The 45 to 65 mph gusting to 80 officially forecast that far inland could easily bring them down, especially with saturated soil.
I don't have time to check everywhere, but I checked the Savannah and Beaufort tides for tomorrow...They will be damn near high when Mathew makes his closest approach. Again, all I've got is WTF...

If you are on the coast or on a tidal river anywhere N of Titusville you need to get out. This includes Ga and Sc coasts. Those who stay will most likely face certain death.
1148. tj175
the blog is lagging
Winds finalllllly picking up here in dade county
I feel like the storm is expanding. The ventilation looks amazing.
1151. nash36
18z HWRF-

Landfall, near Beaufort, SC

Last 6 or so frames show that EWRC didn't happen, at least in the traditional sense.

Watch convection wrap around inner eye, and the core pull in convection towards center from outer eyewall.

This is a strengthening storm.

Radar from DuPage.
Link
BTW
If it has not already been posted, this is a great info source.

http://myfloridahurricane.info/

Link
Quoting 1078. ryanstacos88:

Did this storm just hit the gulf stream and tighten up and some how complete a EWRC without collapsing inner eye?

Looking at the satellite it appears to have just leveled up.
It should be just about to enter the Gulfstream.
Blog hole blog hole blog hole blog hole
1156. scott39
My dad lives in Melbourne. He is going to ride it out. I asked him to go stay in a shelter. He responded with....I've got beef jerky, cold beer and my shotgun. "I will be just fine"
H20 - sorry this made me laugh as much as your HH comment.

Screenshot in case he deletes: http://t.co/KDUcVzYfFA

"why can't I see wind"
Quoting 1072. Proflaw:



If you're annoyed, turn off the radio. That's why it has a power switch. Then you can get a life.

Ok, no need to be snarkey, I am just saying they are putting out a false sense of security, when we have a back side of a storm, that at this point is time is blowing 140 and the wind field is expanding while moving closer to the coast,
1160. hahaguy
Did the blog just die?

Same here in Palm Beach county. In West Boynton beach we have had steady rain and wind for the past hour with some serious gusts.

Quoting 1076. SpicyAngel1072:



Agreed. That's all I hear. It's offshore.....really????
1163. BayFog
Quoting 1095. A4Guy:

On radar the storm looks very well organized...but if you didn't have any info from the NHC, looking at both radar and satellite presentation, you would never think this was a Cat 4 storm. Not overly impressive presentation, overall. The peak winds must be in a very very narrow band. I don't think Nassau had reported winds over 100 mph - did they?

They didn't report anything since they were blown offline before the strongest winds came in.
My prediction (guess really, just like anyone else's opinion on here) is that Matthew will not make a Florida landfall. Some sections of the coast will feel sustained hurricane force winds and larger areas will experience hurricane force gusts. Wind damage will be limited to more poorly constructed buildings but storm surge could cause some significant problems. This won't be close to the most costly hurricane in history. Unfortunately, in the future many who evacuated will decide to stay when the next big one comes around.
So this hurricane has already made landfall on Grand Bahama...which implies the forecast speed is much faster than presented here as the prediction was for an 8PM landfall which is now incorrect. The pressure is rising and will now be entering the much cooler, very deep and Northeastern moving Gulfstream. That will truly show just how much strength this storm system has as it will also have to fight the outflow of the River that exits due East from Jacksonville. The sudden jog North is not good news for folks predicting the end of the World though. Plus still no mention of the massive "bean" due North which if true will act as a massive drag just as it did to the Hurricane before slamming into Hispaniola.
1166. Grothar
1167. ncstorm
I want to get off this ride..

test? 6:09pm CDT
The outer eye wall looks like it is contracting to the inner eye, there is no more space between them. This looks like it could strengthen the eye is about to clear doesn't look good and it's feeling the Gulf Stream. The wind field will expand impacting more inland counties. This will be a strengthening system nearing the coast I truly don't believe it will weaken like NHC has it.
1170. Melagoo


Big Brother and baby sister ... Mathew is huge!
First, I want to thank all the bloggers and trollers for the insight, assistance and help over the past few days...they have been harrowing. I am officially calling it in Plantation.....we MAY get some gusts overnight...that is it...Matthew spared us! Thank god and thank our lucky stars --- this COULD have been disasterous and devastating - it would have made Wilma look like a tropical storm. That being said....to all those living points north and into GA and the Carolinas --- please heed your local advice. If you are on the coast or a low-lying area get the hell out and get out now. It has been said by our local news that this storm could geographically change FL and that some areas could be uninhabitble for weeks if not MONTHS..... Please save your own life --- get your family and pets and get out - property is NOT worth it.....this is the REAL DEAL...I will be online trolling for the next week monitoring Matthew and his currently planned return visit to our area this time next week (potentially). To all in the cone and path...my thoughts, prayers, and wishes are with you...this COULD have devastated us here in the South....please get out if you need and no matter what STAY SAFE....us South Floridians know what this is like (dare I mutter the taboo name....Andrew) - and we are here for you!!
1172. bwi
130mph surface wind

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
944mb (27.88 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 55° (from the NE) 113 knots (130 mph)
925mb 179m (587 ft) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.7°C (76°F) 75° (from the ENE) 127 knots (146 mph)
850mb 923m (3,028 ft) 22.6°C (72.7°F) 21.8°C (71°F) 100° (from the E) 106 knots (122 mph)
700mb 2,605m (8,547 ft) 16.2°C (61.2°F) 15.8°C (60°F) 135° (from the SE) 84 knots (97 mph)
Wow, I dont know how meteorologists do this ...
I have been online all day, reading every comment and looking at whatever everyone has to show.
I also have several web cams up, one with the sounds of the ocean

Went to take the dogs for a walk a bit ago and it was surreal ...kind of like I thought that I should be seeing hurricane related stuff here ...feel like its been such a big part of the day

Anyway, my hats off to the meteorologists. I'd be in a full blown panic attack if I was doing this for a living
another round incoming for the west coast. winds whipping up pretty good here in pinellas park

1175. 1Zach1
I know the blog is catching up and 30min behind, but winds down to 130mph, will be interesting to see if it picks back up overnight before landfall tomorrow.
Really poor timing. 20 min blog delay.
HWRF not too dissimilar to GFS, shows the center of Matthew over Balh Head Island near 60 hrs
1178. SLU
Testing 1, 2, 3
4,800 without power in Palm Beach County. Below is a link to check on your counties....

Link
1180. skook
another blog hole.... been going on way before Matthew was even a wave over Africa...
Gov. Scott presser... Superb Leadership...
Matthew has slowed to a crawl.
Reports that Matthew has confirmed killed 264 people in #Haiti. Many towns & villages, also Jeremie, were destroyed.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=18.637787&lon=- 74.126129&z=12&m=b
Um?
Hurricane chaser Mark is in New somyrna and posting discussions periodically. His latest one at 5 PM is about storm surge.
http://hurricanetrack.com/
1186. russh46
test
1187. HrDelta
I think the comments are broken.
Hurricane chaser mark in new Smyrna posting video discussions periodically. His latest one at 5 PM is about storm surge. Potentially superhigh surge if it hits at high tide

http://hurricanetrack.com/
1189. bwi
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 68 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 77 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.71 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.61 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.6 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 80.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 68 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 74 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
The Civil Protection in Haiti just confirmed that Matthew killed 264 people so far. Entire villages and towns were wiped out.
Testing... The blog is frozen for me
1192. prioris
Matthews will go down as a geo-engineered hurricane
Now we know things are for real, when Waffle House is closed (along I-95 between Titusville and Ft. Pierce):

http://twitter.com/WaffleHouse/status/78411998020 8099329
1194. 900MB
Really hate to say it. Mathew looks to be peaking at the absolute worst time.
Is the blog broken?
Here in winter springs, fl... getting some heavy rain now and gusts to about 30. I am required to stay at work until it is clear to go home. Our county is under a curfew until saturday morning! so long couple of days here.
hope everyone else stays safe. I've been reading the blog all day, it seems that suddenly everyone stopped posting.
test
Blog broken again? Posting this at 7:26 pm, last post I see is 1104 from 6:52 pm.
1199. ProPoly
Blog?
1200. Michfan
Blog go boom.
That is not a happy number in blue, upper right corner.
I live 35 miles north of Jacksonville. It was lovely today 72 degrees, breezy,overcast,so unusual. Then the sun started to set and the cloud cover got a bluish tint. I asked my wife " does it look strange outside?" she said "yes, everything looks pink. no birds, very quiet. The fit is about to hit the shan. We leave tomorrow. I have stared into a full blown Cat.4 once, I am wise enough not to do it twice. I don't need any more humbling and I think it is going to rain pine trees here tomorrow. Prayers for those behind Matthew and God's protection and a healthy dose of wise decisions for those who are ahead.
.
Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeello anybody out there? Test, Test, Test.
punch
Quoting 1066. Neapolitan:

Drudge is a moron, as are his followers.

As are yours. Whats yer point?
1207. jonelu
Question....Freeport reporting 98mph winds. That was the northern eye wall which is the strongest. How can this be a Cat4? Stuff isn't adding up. Here in WPB...ya its some wind and rain but nothing crazy so far. I know its supposed to come later but the radar signature doesn't look that impressive. Yellows and oranges....I get regular bouts of red during afternoon thundersorms.
1208. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 18m18 minutes ago Kailua, HI
We have two hurricanes in the Atlantic in October for the 1st time since October 30, 2010 (Shary & Tomas). #Matthew #Nicole
I wanna watch the landfall of Matthew but I got a job interview tomorrow at 3 :(
test it seems the blog isn't updating. stuck on post 1104
1211. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 34m34 minutes ago Kailua, HI
The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season has now generated more major hurricane days than the previous 4 years (2012-2015) combined. #Matthew
1212. prioris
matthews is a geo-engineered hurricane
Quoting 960. hurricanewatcher61:

What concerns me is that I may not have a job to go back to since I work on Merritt Island, surge is going to be something. I was born and raised there now in Melbourne, going to be sad :(


:-( Hoping they can recover quickly there. All good luck and blessings!
gotta love the blog crashes.
1215. mrjr101
Quoting 1099. Envoirment:





That's CAT 1 sustained. Is there any instrumentation on the ground that has confirmed 100mph + from anywhere?
Heavy rain starting again here in Longwood, FL. Think a band is moving in.
1217. robj144
Did the blog completely break? Testing...
I left for dinner and came back to see that Matthew is doing some loops and is basically in the same place as when I left. Looks like the secondary eyewall is closing in as well.
test 735
The death toll in Haiti as a result of Hurricane Matthew has soared to 264, the government says. Link

Awful, truly awful.
Quoting 1068. LesBonsTemps:

The westward jog appears to have resolved itself back close to the 325 degree Merritt Island path, but meanwhile, like Levi hints, the hurricane appears to gaining a bit of strength.


pressure up 1 mb. window for strengthening almost closed.. unlikely to strengthen
The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, a part of the US Army, has created a special site for Hurricane Matthew full of excellent maps and links.
wow, perfect time for a blog hole
The confirmed death toll in Haiti is unfortunately already up to at least 283, including 90 in the town of Chantal (population 3,500+) and 85 in Les Anglais (pop. 27,000+). The numbers stayed quite low for the first few days, but the true scope of the devastation is quickly becoming apparent. If Cuba survives this without any casualties, it would be yet another mark in their excellent history of evacuation and storm preparedness IMO.

Link (Casualty information, in French)
1225. HrDelta
Hey, I am not seeing any new posts.
1226. HarryMc
Blog appears to be stuck
Anyone else having trouble with this site updating? It won't refresh on any of my devices.
I guess the blog crashed?
The death toll in Haiti as a result of Hurricane Matthew has soared to 264, the government says.
Some 50 people were reported to have died in the southern town of Roche-a-Bateau alone.
The peninsula’s main city, Jeremie, saw 80% of its buildings levelled. In Sud province 30,000 homes were destroyed.


Link

Well dang. It was heading north to Freeport. Then it decides to jump west. Grrrrr.
1231. Patrap
Time to get safe,interior room...your phone...and your winds are building.

The waster is coming.

Hunker down.

Do not venture out.

If u must protect your head.




looks like the large part is slowly moving nnw
Quoting 919. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

she was on last night late have not seen or heard from her since


Thanks, Keeper! So good to hear!
RIP Blog :(
Is the blog dead? Haven't seen a new post in a while...

1237. Grothar
Did this blog die? I haven't seen a new post in quire some time.
This westward wobble of the smaller eye was anticipated, as the smaller eye was rotating around the larger eye, but now it looks like maybe the smaller eye is winning out.... or idk what's happening really. Is the storm stalling out? This hurricane has been driving me crazy. The RI in the eastern Carib, the devastation of Haiti, the lack of impacts in south Florida, whatever is happening now, the forecast loop, wow.... my head is spinning.

Also, it's gotten very windy in Broward right now. Thoughts are with fellow Floridians, friends and strangers alike to the north.
Quoting 1095. A4Guy:

On radar the storm looks very well organized...but if you didn't have any info from the NHC, looking at both radar and satellite presentation, you would never think this was a Cat 4 storm. Not overly impressive presentation, overall. The peak winds must be in a very very narrow band. I don't think Nassau had reported winds over 100 mph - did they?

Pretty sure they did
Blog broken?????
Here's HGX's take on Matthew:



.TROPICAL...
As of 830Z IR satellite imagery Hurricane Matthew looks well
organized. Latest Air Force Recon has reported pressure falls down
to 945 mb and higher flight level/SFMR winds which would be
consistent with a more robust eye-wall structure seen in satellite
imagery. Matthew is well on its way to more intensification as it
tracks through the Bahamas. Hurricane Matthew will continue on a
NW/NNW track towards the Atlantic Florida coast. Latest guidance
looks good for a track parallel to the Florida coast and then curving
just off the South Carolina coast. The latest 00Z GFS continues a
trend to loop Matthew back towards Florida but it becomes sheared
apart while doing so. The ECMWF has a similar track but maintains
mid/low level vortex. Hurricane Matthew will continue to test the
limits of tropical forecasting both in track and in intensity.



And now, NOLA:

Now fairly confident that the upper trough pushing this weekend`s
front through will miss Hurricane Matthew, leaving Matthew
lingering off the coast of the southeast US. As high pressure
strengthens to its northeast, Matthew is forecast to begin moving
southwestward again. Will mention that some ensemble members do
take whatever remains of Matthew back into south Florida or into
the Florida straights by the end of the forecast period. However,
there is significant uncertainty concerning how much Matthew`s
core will be disrupted by Florida or any potential landfall and
thus we will have to wait and see before having any confidence in
what Matthew will do during the time frame beyond the official 5
day track forecast. (!)


That said, what are the chances that Houston will have to deal with Matthew?
sorry to clog the blog, but is this thing working?
Test. 23:48 UTC
Freeport looks to be in a word of hurt right now. Prayers to them.
Best radar is obviously out of Miami, the storm has moved westward again after that northern wobble......
1247. Ed22
Quoting 1102. IDTH:



nice radar imagery, i think Matthew is going get retired for sure.
Gulfstream location and SST
Blog crash?
Blog Locked?
Hellooooooo.
1254. Ragutis
Um, anyone watching the Juno Pier cam on Surfline? http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/juno-pier-flor ida_5611/

What are those flashes in the water at the end of the pier?
1255. mrjr101
Quoting 1095. A4Guy:

On radar the storm looks very well organized...but if you didn't have any info from the NHC, looking at both radar and satellite presentation, you would never think this was a Cat 4 storm. Not overly impressive presentation, overall. The peak winds must be in a very very narrow band. I don't think Nassau had reported winds over 100 mph - did they?

That's exactly what I just asked. Where is the 100+ winds of this storm? Nassau almost had a direct hit.
Is the blog down? Hasn't refreshed in over an hour?
Blog down blog down
blog crash
A Internet cat 5 hit this blog
test.... feed is toast
test
Getting very concerned for Charleston, just read the last forcast discussion and they are comparing it to Hugo. We got out however many friends have stayed behind. I pray that not much damage is done and that people are safe. I have heard so many different stories from people texting me from Charleston and some seem to see a cat 1 and I have seen cat 3 on Noaa.
First, I want to thank all the bloggers and trollers for the insight, assistance and help over the past few days...they have been harrowing. I am officially calling it in Plantation.....we MAY get some gusts overnight...that is it...Matthew spared us! Thank god and thank our lucky stars --- this COULD have been disasterous and devastating - it would have made Wilma look like a tropical storm. That being said....to all those living points north and into GA and the Carolinas --- please heed your local advice. If you are on the coast or a low-lying area get the hell out and get out now. It has been said by our local news that this storm could geographically change FL and that some areas could be uninhabitble for weeks if not MONTHS..... Please save your own life --- get your family and pets and get out - property is NOT worth it.....this is the REAL DEAL...I will be online trolling for the next week monitoring Matthew and his currently planned return visit to our area this time next week (potentially). To all in the cone and path...my thoughts, prayers, and wishes are with you...this COULD have devastated us here in the South....please get out if you need and no matter what STAY SAFE....us South Floridians know what this is like (dare I mutter the taboo name....Andrew) - and we are here for you!!
Hi, I live in Davie, FL.  our winds are WNW @ 27mph.  Not much rain here, have had 1/4 inch so far. 
Hi, I live in Davie, FL.  our winds are WNW @ 27mph.  Not much rain here, have had 1/4 inch so far. 
1266. hydrus
Freeport is getting whacked..Godspeed to all the folks in the path...Hopefully we get word soon from the members on the blog that live there.
is the blog dead?
is the blog dead?
Comments don't seem to be refreshing right.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE = >39mph, sustained 10s

And a brief 63mph gust doesn't count

HURRICANE FORCE = HIGHWAY SPEED

Roll the window down and feel 70 sustained

Everyone will get gusts with fast moving feeder bands both before and after he passes north of your location

Stay safe
1271. beell
Is Florida gone?
1272. KalEl27
Did the blog just go kaput?
1273. cabice
Getting pounded in Lake Mary
First, I want to thank all the bloggers and trollers for the insight, assistance and help over the past few days...they have been harrowing. I am officially calling it in Plantation.....we MAY get some gusts overnight...that is it...Matthew spared us! Thank god and thank our lucky stars --- this COULD have been disasterous and devastating - it would have made Wilma look like a tropical storm. That being said....to all those living points north and into GA and the Carolinas --- please heed your local advice. If you are on the coast or a low-lying area get the hell out and get out now. It has been said by our local news that this storm could geographically change FL and that some areas could be uninhabitable for weeks if not MONTHS..... Please save your own life --- get your family and pets and get out - property is NOT worth it.....this is the REAL DEAL...I will be online trolling for the next week monitoring Matthew and his currently planned return visit to our area this time next week (potentially). To all in the cone and path...my thoughts, prayers, and wishes are with you...this COULD have devastated us here in the South....please get out if you need and no matter what STAY SAFE....us South Floridians know what this is like (dare I mutter the taboo name....Andrew) - and we are here for you!!
it looks like Freeport took a direct hit and was in the northeast and eastern eyewall for quite sometime.....has anyone seen any weather data from Freeport?
1276. thunk
Back up again.
1277. IDTH
Holy crap it's loading!!!!!!!!!!!
1278. rxse7en
Norcross just said the eye is closed off again and strengthening and will strengthen further over the Gulf Stream.
1279. scCane
Even though it's a little weaker I think this is the best Matthew has looked since hitting Haiti.

Looks like a huge rain threat here with all the dry spots gradually being filled in since this morning.
Yes I couldn't even get on the site. I was having WU withdrawls. I have a Cat 4 just off shore from me, I need the blog now more than ever. On a side note, I think my husband is going to make me step away from the laptop for a few days after this passes. LOL

Quoting 1109. catastropheadjuster:

Has the blog froze or is everyone gone?
band of rain over here in West Central Florida, seems to go on for awhile, could not rule out some small flooding issues if a training occurs
Great job on the storm coverage!
Quoting 1160. hahaguy:

Did the blog just die?


Once it gets to 24 pages for a single blog entry it seems to crap out.......it will only speed up after its "updated."
1284. HrDelta
Quoting 1143. HuriKen96:

How much more time does Matthew have over water before possibly making landfall?


8-12 hours?
What's your opinions if it does the loop and goes across Florida into gulf can it restrengthen and where does it ultimately go in the long range forecast? Wondering if can make it to western gulf and affect Texas or Louisiana??
1286. JM2
8PM update is out. Winds down to 130 (still seems to high to me). Crazy loops put Matt back in nearly the same location on Tuesday as TS. Hurricane Warning from Boca south has been lifted.
Truly an incredible year- intensity wise for Atlantic tropical systems and Hurricanes. Apart from the incredulous menacing Major Hurricane Matthew- Hurricane NICOLE INSPITE OF DIVERGENT DOWNWARD SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF MATTHEW SEEMS TO BE IN A PHASE OF RI; HOW INCREDIBLE IS THAT?... It actually looks like Nicole may attain even Major Hurricane status...
To our affected brothers and sisters -especially Those along the East coast continue to keep safe and calm.

Blessings!
45 mins behind.
1289. rxse7en
Live Jax Beach Cam Still up and running and you can see the wave action from the nor'easter that also dumped several inches of rain on us right before Matthew shows up. That nor'easter has also created a tidal surge that's just gonna get worse as Matt approaches.
Matthew is expanding, sort of like the movie, Fifth element, when they hit the death star with the mega missile.

WPB about to get the strongest line of storms tonight
1292. MZT
Getting 10 foot waves at Ft Pierce station
I think we are back finally
I wish TWC live on Youtube wouldn't go to that music so often...
1295. HarryMc
OK. Who broke the blog? 'Fess up.
Quoting 1128. nash36:



What do you think of this run??
1297. Kevin77
Quoting 1190. SevereWeatherGermany:

The Civil Protection in Haiti just confirmed that Matthew killed 264 people so far. Entire villages and towns were wiped out.


:(
About 20mins slow right now.
So the 8 PM update shows a weakening storm. Hopefully this is a trend.
1300. guxtrop
We have more blackouts here than Goes-13..
NWS Charleston painting a DIRE picture.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
734 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016

..hurricane warnings for the coast with tropical storm warnings
inland...
..risk for life threatening surge and dangerous fresh water
flooding increasing...

Synopsis...
Hurricane Matthew is expected to move north from the Bahamas later
this week, bringing significant impacts to southeast South Carolina
and southeast Georgia.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
some very light drizzle has broken out across inland areas. This
does not look too significant. Made very minor adjustments, but
overall the forecast is in good shape.

The high pressure wedge will hold on through the night, but will
gradually erode from the east early Friday as a coastal front
draws closer to the coast in advance of Hurricane Matthew.
Isentropic assent will increase late, but the dry, resident wedge
airmass will be slow to moisten. Pops will be heavily gradated from
east to west ranging from 40-60% coastal areas to 20% well
inland, but again, most of the night should remain dry. Lows in
the lower 70s look reasonable.

&&

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
major impacts from Hurricane Matthew are expected Friday and
Saturday across coastal portions of southeast SC/GA.

The latest NHC forecast for Matthew indicates a category 3 hurricane
approaching our area Friday night, perhaps becoming a category 2 as
it turns northeastward Saturday and moves offshore Saturday night.
The latest forecast has shifted the track closer to the Georgia coast and
this will lead to major impacts for our entire area. A continued
change to a more westerly track and/or stronger storm could further
increase impacts. However, people across southeast SC/Georgia (especially
the coast) should now be preparing for hurricane-force winds (74+
mph), coastal flooding due to storm surge, heavy rainfall-induced
freshwater flooding, and even the chance of an isolated tornado or
two. Winds and rainfall will not be as intense further inland, but
impacts will still be high. Some of the impacts from Matthew could
be comparable to hurricane Hugo.
See the various products issued
from our office for more details on the expected impacts to your
area,

Important: the NHC continues to emphasize when a hurricane is
forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew
is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes
very difficult to estimate impacts. For example, only a small
deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring
the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to
the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore.
Additionally, don't focus on just the center of the storm. This is a
large storm and the impacts will reach far from the center.

By Sunday, conditions rapidly improve as Matthew moves out to sea
and high pressure begins to build into the area.

&&

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
Matthew will likely move in a clockwise motion well offshore. Breezy
and chilly conditions will prevail through early week with some
coastal showers. Temperatures should climb back toward normal near
the middle of next week.

&&

Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
Hurricane Matthew will directly impact the terminals Friday night
into Saturday.

In the near term, light drizzle has broken out early this evening.
This should largely remain west of the terminals. MVFR cigs will
linger this evening then drop to high-end IFR by 04-05z. IFR cigs
will linger through mid-morning then improve to VFR. Wind gusts
will increase overnight and especially Friday as Hurricane Matthew
draws closer. Gusts could approach 30 kt at ksav by the end of the
00z taf period. Rain will also overspread the region as feeder
bands move inland. Highly variable conditions will occur as these
bands move across the terminals by late morning at ksav and mid
afternoon at kchs. Will show prevailing MVFR vsbys for now.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions Friday and Saturday
as Hurricane Matthew affects the area. For sav, sustained tropical
storm force winds (34+ kt) are expected Friday evening into Saturday
afternoon. Hurricane force wind gusts (65+ kt) are possible late
Friday night into early Saturday morning. For chs, sustained
tropical storm force winds (34+ kt) are expected Friday night into
Saturday evening. Hurricane force wind gusts (65+ kt) are possible
Saturday morning and afternoon.

&&

Marine...
tonight: buoy and pilot boat reports indicate hazardous conditions
continue across the coastal waters this afternoon with northeast
winds 20-30 kt. Seas will build through the night, reaching 6-8 ft
nearshore waters to 7-11 ft offshore waters.

Friday through tuesday: conditions will rapidly deteriorate as
Hurricane Matthew moves northward into our area. The latest NHC
track moves the center of Matthew closer to the Georgia coast, within our
Georgia waters Friday night or Saturday morning before moving
northeastward into Saturday night. Marine conditions will be deadly
to anyone venturing out to sea or in the harbors
. Sustained tropical
storms force winds will likely start Friday morning across the Georgia
waters and then spread northward into the SC waters by Friday
evening. Sustained hurricane force winds are forecasted Friday night
into Saturday afternoon, especially for the Georgia waters. Seas could
exceed 20 feet in the eastern portions of the nearshore waters and
exceed 30 feet in the offshore Georgia waters. Conditions will slowly
improve early next week as winds turn offshore and Matthew moves
farther away. However, Small Craft Advisory conditions could linger
as winds remain elevated and turn to the northeast, which will help
keep seas up.

Rip currents: high risk of rip currents Friday through this weekend
due to Hurricane Matthew.

&&

Hydrology...
the risk for flash flooding will increase Friday into Saturday as
Matthew makes its closest approach to the area. The combination of
very deep moisture (pwats in excess of 2.5" across our area) and the
speed of Matthew should equate to total storm rainfall amounts
around 10 to 12 inches generally east of I-95 with locally higher
amounts. Locations generally west of I-95 can expect around 5 to 10
inches, with our extreme interior Georgia counties getting up to 5
inches.
The highest rainfall amounts are forecasted for our coastal
counties.

The latest quantitative precipitation forecast forecast has trended higher due to the storm moving
closer to the coast. Following coordination with our neighboring
wfo's, we opted to extend the Flash Flood Watch for our entire area.
The greatest threat of flash floods should generally be east of I-95.

It is becoming more likely that the combination of very heavy
rainfall and very high tide levels could lead to a widespread fresh
water flooding event for low-lying coastal areas, especially
downtown Charleston. Flooding comparable to the devastating October
'15 floods is not out of the question in some locations.


&&

Tides/coastal flooding...
persistent, strong northeast winds will allow tide levels to
increase ahead of Hurricane Matthew. As Matthew approaches and
passes our area Friday into Saturday tide levels should be high
enough to produce extreme coastal flooding. In addition to the high
tide levels there will be storm surge. If the eye of the storm
passes over our Georgia coastal counties before turning northwestward,
extreme flooding from storm surge will be likely on the northern
side of where the eye crosses the coast. Even with the eye
forecasted to remain offshore of SC, high storm surge is still
expected along low-lying areas of the SC coastline.
The forecasted inundation is 4-8 ft for SC and 7-11 ft for Georgia.
Some coastal locations could experience the worst storm surge
since hurricane Hugo with devastating impacts.


&&
Quoting 1271. beell:

Is Florida gone?


Should ask that about San Fran where the WU servers are.
Quoting 1286. JM2:

8PM update is out. Winds down to 130 (still seems to high to me). Crazy loops put Matt back in nearly the same location on Tuesday as TS. Hurricane Warning from Boca south has been lifted.



Aren't the winds down right now because of the EWRC?
And we're back!
Quoting 1229. RobertWC:

The death toll in Haiti as a result of Hurricane Matthew has soared to 264, the government says.
Some 50 people were reported to have died in the southern town of Roche-a-Bateau alone.
The peninsula’s main city, Jeremie, saw 80% of its buildings levelled. In Sud province 30,000 homes were destroyed.


Link



We have a sponsor child there. I won't get any word about him any time soon. Makes me sick
1306. Patrap
BigDukeNOLA7 back on the wu big loop.






🌜🎑🌙🌊✌


Nicole looks like she wants to become a major:

Winds now sustained at 68 knots at Settlement Point across from WPB:
NDBC
Location: 26.704N 78.995W
Date: Thu, 6 Oct 2016 23:00:00 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 68.0 kt gusting to 76.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 28.71 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 78.1 F
Dew Point: 76.6 F

Well as a long time reader/lurker of Dr. Masters' blog I figure I will come out of hiding to update that, after living in Canada for 10 years me and my family moved back to Central FL a month ago and thus will be riding out hurricane Matthew this evening. We decided not to stay in Seminole county and are currently hotel-ing it near Disney. I hope everyone in the storm's path keeps safe!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1141. DurhamWeatherLover:

Who broke the blog?

IBM ain't what it used to be. That's a fact, not an opinion.
1312. V26R


found out why the blog crashed!!!
1313. Patrap
AFHH 307 en route



Quoting 1287. NatureIsle:

Truly an incredible year- intensity wise for Atlantic tropical systems and Hurricanes. Apart from the incredulous menacing Major Hurricane Matthew- Hurricane NICOLE INSPITE OF DIVERGENT DOWNWARD SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF MATTHEW SEEMS TO BE IN A PHASE OF RI; HOW INCREDIBLE IS THAT?... It actually looks like Nicole may attain even Major Hurricane status...
To our affected brothers and sisters -especially Those along the East coast continue to keep safe and calm.

Blessings!

Where did you get that information from?
1315. Loduck
Quoting 1212. prioris:

matthews is a geo-engineered hurricane
What's that?
looks like a wooble to the north, fingers crossed the entire coastline will be spared

Quoting 1174. TBayEyes:

another round incoming for the west coast. winds whipping up pretty good here in pinellas park



Settlement Point now offline - Last reported winds: 140 km/h - Gusting 166 km/h
Quoting 1254. Ragutis:

Um, anyone watching the Juno Pier cam on Surfline? http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/juno-pier-flor ida_5611/

What are those flashes in the water at the end of the pier?


I see that. Might be people with flash lights at the end of it... saw on the Deerfield camera police kick people off around 720pm.
Quoting 1317. mistermizu:


Settlement Point now offline - Last reported winds: 140 km/h - Gusting 166 km/h


Wow... I hope folks there were very prepared.
1320. Ragutis
Forgive the repost, but I'm really curious:

Um, anyone watching the Juno Pier cam on Surfline? http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/juno-pier-flor ida_5611/

What are those flashes in the water at the end of the pier?

8:25 p.m.
1321. robj144
Quoting 1254. Ragutis:

Um, anyone watching the Juno Pier cam on Surfline? http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/juno-pier-flor ida_5611/

What are those flashes in the water at the end of the pier?


That's a good question.
Quoting 1299. DurhamWeatherLover:

So the 8 PM update shows a weakening storm. Hopefully this is a trend.


All of 3mb
Matthew becoming wetter.
Quoting 1108. thetwilightzone:

still a ch that tonight we could see a new round of RI wish may bring this storm too 155 too 165 mph be for land fall

Stop that, I want a roof over my head when I return
1325. Smitter
Quoting 1300. guxtrop:

We have more blackouts here than Goes-13..
Conspiracy? Lol
Quoting 1317. mistermizu:


Settlement Point now offline - Last reported winds: 140 km/h - Gusting 166 km/h


Holy crap. Thats 166 with gust 190 oops.. Realized that was KM/hr not Kts ...
Quoting 1317. mistermizu:


Settlement Point now offline - Last reported winds: 140 km/h - Gusting 166 km/h


When was that? I haven't seen any reports of that. saw a 100mph gust but nothing sustained like that
1328. skook
There is a guy on WESH, he has his 45 foot boat tied to palm trees....he's on the intercoastal waterway near daytona beach...
1329. V26R
You do know there is a new Blog out right???
Quoting 1242. pureet1948:

Here's HGX's take on Matthew:



.TROPICAL...
As of 830Z IR satellite imagery Hurricane Matthew looks well
organized. Latest Air Force Recon has reported pressure falls down
to 945 mb and higher flight level/SFMR winds which would be
consistent with a more robust eye-wall structure seen in satellite
imagery. Matthew is well on its way to more intensification as it
tracks through the Bahamas. Hurricane Matthew will continue on a
NW/NNW track towards the Atlantic Florida coast. Latest guidance
looks good for a track parallel to the Florida coast and then curving
just off the South Carolina coast. The latest 00Z GFS continues a
trend to loop Matthew back towards Florida but it becomes sheared
apart while doing so. The ECMWF has a similar track but maintains
mid/low level vortex. Hurricane Matthew will continue to test the
limits of tropical forecasting both in track and in intensity.



And now, NOLA:

Now fairly confident that the upper trough pushing this weekend`s
front through will miss Hurricane Matthew, leaving Matthew
lingering off the coast of the southeast US. As high pressure
strengthens to its northeast, Matthew is forecast to begin moving
southwestward again. Will mention that some ensemble members do
take whatever remains of Matthew back into south Florida or into
the Florida straights by the end of the forecast period. However,
there is significant uncertainty concerning how much Matthew`s
core will be disrupted by Florida or any potential landfall and
thus we will have to wait and see before having any confidence in
what Matthew will do during the time frame beyond the official 5
day track forecast. (!)


That said, what are the chances that Houston will have to deal with Matthew?


100% if you haven't evacuated already it is too late. I live in Mexico but I also have a house in Houston. Comments like yours make Houstonians look like idiots
Quoting 1327. BobinTampa:



When was that? I haven't seen any reports of that. saw a 100mph gust but nothing sustained like that


160 km/hr = 100 mph
Now that the blog is up again, report from Boynton Beach- its been raining hard for past 2 hours with no relief however not much in terms of wind other than a few tropical storm strength gusts
Quoting 1316. bocahurricane:

looks like a wooble to the north, fingers crossed the entire coastline will be spared




Unfortunately the outer eye is what's moving the system.
Quoting 1326. marknmelb:



Holy crap. Thats 166 with gust 190


In mph, that is 87 with gusts to 103.
EDIT: It seems you already found out:)
1335. skook
Quoting 1328. skook:

There is a guy on WESH, he has his 45 foot boat tied to palm trees....he's on the intercoastal waterway near daytona beach...



This is picture of his boat, tied up to the palm trees, the reporter, anchors were in disbelief, to his stubbornness.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting 1281. Hurricanes101:

band of rain over here in West Central Florida, seems to go on for awhile, could not rule out some small flooding issues if a training occurs


That will likely be just the 'tip of the iceberg' unfortunately; with a system the likes of Matthew's size and impact the full range of devastation will sadly most likely be extensive to extreme at best...Take every measure to protect life and limb at this point is a cautionary phrase which cannot be over-emphasized.
Praying and hoping for the best outcome for the Bahamas and the U.S east coast.

God Bless!
Quoting 1327. BobinTampa:



When was that? I haven't seen any reports of that. saw a 100mph gust but nothing sustained like that

I took that screen shot at about 20:15 - but I didn't see when it actually went offline...
Quoting 1327. BobinTampa:



When was that? I haven't seen any reports of that. saw a 100mph gust but nothing sustained like that


You do understand the difference between mph y km/h, or don't you?
1339. beell
.
Quoting 1095. A4Guy:

On radar the storm looks very well organized...but if you didn't have any info from the NHC, looking at both radar and satellite presentation, you would never think this was a Cat 4 storm. Not overly impressive presentation, overall. The peak winds must be in a very very narrow band. I don't think Nassau had reported winds over 100 mph - did they?

Disagree, loks quite symmetrical and impressive to me, looks like a healthy CAT 4 tht is expanding its windfeild
Well, hope he enjoys getting the crap sued out of him when the boat flies through the air and destroys a house or, worse, maims or kills someone. What an idiot.

Quoting 1328. skook:

There is a guy on WESH, he has his 45 foot boat tied to palm trees....he's on the intercoastal waterway near daytona beach...
1342. cabice
Already over 5 inches of rain in Lake Mary
Meanwhile, Nicole is a CAT2 now, at 90 kt, according to 00Z ATCF:
AL, 15, 2016100700, , BEST, 0, 274N, 652W, 90, 968, HU,
1344. bandaid
Quoting 1335. skook:




This is picture of his boat, tied up to the palm trees, the reporter, anchors were in disbelief, to his stubbornness.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


I have both installed palm trees, and pilings in my lifetime. Pilings are MUCH stronger.
Hey all, it's me reporting from New Smyrna Beach.
My mother would not leave, so here I am.
Winds picking up now. Rain.
Nothing more than tropical storm at present, but we know it's coming.
Spent two days putting my shutters up, filling sandbags, helping those who depend on me limit damage.
Hope the roof stays on.
Surrounded by dense oak trees. They should cut some of the wind.
House is up high so air can flow through.
Wish us luck! I don't want to end up in Oz. There are just a few of us in the neighborhood.
Need to rest now. Exhausting day and another one tomorrow.

Quoting 1345. Chicklit:

Hey all, it's me reporting from New Smyrna Beach.
My mother would not leave, so here I am.
Winds picking up now. Rain.
Nothing more than tropical storm at present, but we know it's coming.
Spent two days putting my shutters up, filling sandbags, helping those who depend on me limit damage.
Hope the roof stays on.
Surrounded by dense oak trees. They should cut some of the wind.
House is up high so air can flow through.
Wish us luck! I don't want to end up in Oz. There are just a few of us in the neighborhood.
Need to rest now. Exhausting day and another one tomorrow.




Please be safe --- does someone on WU have contact info for you?
1347. jcadam
I left my house in Satellite Beach (on the barrier island just south of Cape Canaveral) Wednesday morning after reading reports that evacuations were going to be ordered in the late afternoon (and I beat most of the traffic, yay). I'm currently sitting in a hotel room in Clearwater watching Matthew's progress. Planning to head back Saturday morning, depending on what the situation is back home.

Never thought I'd have to worry about storm surge (I live in a low-risk flood zone)... glad I bought flood insurance (mostly on a whim) back in May.
Quoting 1334. Bobbyweather:


In mph, that is 87 with gusts to 103.
EDIT: It seems you already found out:)


Yep. I'm a doufus .. LOL
1349. Patrap
Did any of you just hear CNN's weatherman say that Matthew and Nicole may affect each other's track, then went on to call it a "Hemmawari Effect"? lol
1351. Patrap
Storm rain totals


1352. Patrap


Too many people f5'ing at once...
1355. guxtrop
link