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Omar intensifies to Category 3, but mostly spares the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:39 PM GMT on October 16, 2008

Hurricane Omar blasted through the Lesser Antilles last night, intensifying into a Category 3 hurricane as it accelerated to the northeast. Fortunately, the eye missed all the islands, as the storm passed through the narrow Anedega Passage between the Virgin Islands and Anguilla. However, the western eyewall did pass over the eastern tip of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands (Figure 1), bringing hurricane-force winds there. A Personal Weather Station at the Buccaneer Resort on the northeast coast of St. Croix recorded sustained winds of 80 mph at a height of 110 feet. Rainfall there was 6.28" on Thursday, and 9.11" so far today, for a storm total of 15.39". Other wind measurements and total rainfall for the past two days from Omar:

St. Croix airport 39 mph, gusting to 58 mph, 4.56"
Limetree Bay, south side of St. Croix 51 mph, gusting to 71 mph
Limetree Bay CMAN station, St. Croix 53 mph
St. Maartin airport 45 mph, gusting to 67 mph, 7.02"
Anguilla West End Personal Weather Station 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph, 2.88" (elevation 45 feet)

Buoy 41140 (north side of St. Croix, water depth 85 feet) reported 15 foot waves at the time of eyewall passage. The buoy's anemometer was inoperative.


Figure 1. Radar image of Hurricane Omar as its west eyewall passed over the eastern tip of St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. At the time, Omar was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds.

Omar in historical perspective
Omar is an unusual hurricane in several respects. It's one of only four hurricanes to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands so late in the season. The only hurricanes that occurred later were the Category 3 1867 hurricane that hit Puerto Rico, and two 1999 storms, Category 2 Jose and famed Category 4 "Wrong-way Lenny". Lenny was the only west-to-east moving hurricane on record to affect the Lesser Antilles. Omar's northeasterly motion is highly unusual as well, and I couldn't find any similar storms in the historical record except Lenny.

Omar is headed out to sea and should not affect any other land areas. Steady weakening is forecast, due to increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.


Figure 2. Tracks of all October or later hurricanes to affect the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Light red tracks indicate a minor hurricane, and dark red tracks are for a major hurricane. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression 16 moved ashore over northern Honduras yesterday and dissipated. However, moisture from the depression remains over the region, which could see additional heavy rains of 2-4 inches today. It is possible that the remains of TD 16 could move over the Eastern Pacific and regenerate into a tropical storm. Both the GFDL and UKMET models have indicated this possibility in recent runs.

No computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
There continues to be an urgent need for relief supplies in the wake of Hurricane Ike. I recommend contributions to the portlight.org charity fund, formed by wunderground members to serve the needs of those often bypassed by traditional relief efforts. Contributions are fully tax-deductible, and more details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
ts omar aruba
ts omar aruba

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Autistic2:
Good Morning All

Need Coffee
Kids off to school
Then NEW JOB INTERVIEW!

91L? soon

BBL


Good luck and hope you get the new Job... definitely something you don't want to be without these days.
Not really Autistic.

The wave by the southern windwards has no signs of organization and the wave out over the atlantic below 10N has not circulation to it, high wind shear over it, and being below 10N its chances are not that good to get spinning.

I dont think we will have a 91L till say sunday night or monday AM if that soon at all
Oh yes.. Good Luck w/ the Job Interview!!
504. IKE
6Z GFS shows a SW Florida hit.
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS shows a SW Florida hit.


Indeed... the thing is that as the day progresses it deepens the low a bit more as it gets a better handle on the situation.
ECM is very interesting. Have to wait to see if it keeps.

Also GFS is interesting. time will tell also
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 19 2008 - 12Z THU OCT 23 2008

MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE BY HAND OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE
PERIOD FOR THE FINAL WITH THE ADVENT OF THE 12Z GEM
GLOBAL...UKMET...AND ECMWF...WHICH ALL DEVELOPED THE CYCLONE EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS INTO A WARM CORE HYBRID SYSTEM THAT TRACKS TOWARD
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS DID NOT DEPICT THIS
SOLUTION...BUT WITH THREE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...WITH SUCH
DISPARATE PHYSICS...CONVERGING ON A HIGH IMPACT EVENT LIKE THIS
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WOULD HAVE FELT REMISS NOT MAKING THE
CHANGES TO THE PROGS. FORTUNATELY...THE UPSTREAM FLOW AS PER THE
GFS AND ECMWF DID NOT DEPART SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND CHOSEN
FOR THE UPDATE PACKAGE...SO LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE MAP INTACT
FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.

Link


looks like the HPC feels the next system is a hybrid off the EC
One more storms put this one as one of the five most active seasons of the past fifty years. And probably more than that, also.

Only two seasons have seen 'R'. 1995, 2005. Both were retired. Just two more and we'll see Rene.

1969 also had 17 or so storms, but a few of those were unnamed thus 'R' did not pop up. As well, that may be the season to have had the most tropical depressions. Going off Wiki, there could've been as much as 38 TDs. (!)

Even with the general rule that seasons pre-satellite have 2 extra storms, no season would've seen 'R'. (The closest is 1953 which had 14 storms.)

There are two standout exceptions in 1887/1933 and I'd imagine there are a couple of other active seasons, but of course, naming in the contemporary sense did not exist then.




this is also interesting from HPC carrib discussion

A CLOSED LOW OVER HONDURAS MIGRATES TO
SOUTH OF GUATEMALA/GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 36-48 HRS...AND IT
PERSISTS THROUGH 72-84 HRS AS A SECONDARY LOW CLOSES OVER GULF OF
HONDURAS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN

Link

could be what the GFS is picking up on for the Florida system
511. IKE
Long-range discussion from Key West,FL.....

"Looking into next week...the GFS continues to develop low pressure
in the southeastern Gulf as a northern extension of a persistent
area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea. And it keeps the
Keys and surrounding waters in a higher moisture field when compared
to either the NAM or the European model (ecmwf). Both of those models keep lower
pressures shunted well to the south and west of the region. At this
point...plan no changes to the later portions of the forecast with
both probability of precipitation and temperatures very close to seasonal average...and see
how the GFS model behaves over the next several runs."

Cot thanks for the season trivia. Store that little nugget away =)

wow 38 TD. Thats amazing wonder how many of them were actual fish storms? Being it was before sat images
Thanks IKE. So basically we are in a holding pattern with this possible system developing
Quoting Bonedog:
this is also interesting from HPC carrib discussion

A CLOSED LOW OVER HONDURAS MIGRATES TO
SOUTH OF GUATEMALA/GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 36-48 HRS...AND IT
PERSISTS THROUGH 72-84 HRS AS A SECONDARY LOW CLOSES OVER GULF OF
HONDURAS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN

Link

could be what the GFS is picking up on for the Florida system


That's the system GFS is developing from unspent energy in the area.
Tampa Long Range

MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LONGER RANGE AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS IT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE SETTLED SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WILL MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS POPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AND IF ANY SURFACE LOW
EVEN DEVELOPS.
gotcha WX. So at least there will be a Low in the area so the models aren't out to lunch with that at least
Good Morning All,

Bonedog... Just wanted to wish you a safe trip to Florida. I am in Central Florida and just watched our local weather.....at least the weekend is going to be beautiful here. First chance of "rain" for Central Fl is Tuesday with 20%.

Enjoy your time in Sunny Florida.

Best of Luck getting your friend on the plane too.......
FL Mets are definitely watching closely the potential system that could develop next week.
reading between the lines of the Tampa long range THAT could be what the GFS is showing and not the Honduran Low!

Thank you LucieFl
Your Welcome BoneDog. Not sure what part you are going to be in, maybe coming to Daytona for Biketoberfest? If so, stop in...
This is something

These are all long range discussions from FL and other offices

JAX
GFS IS DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROF OR LOW OVER THE EXTREME SE GOMEX BY LATE NEXT
WEEK

MLB
GFS
TRIES TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF CUBA BY
WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THURSDAY
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE
EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE KEEP THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
CUBA BUT ALSO BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

MIA just retyped the MLB one

We know what KYW said thanks IKE =)

TAE
BOTH MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
IN THE NWRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE EURO`S TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH N THAT IT
DOES NOT PICK UP THIS FEATURE WHICH SPINS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS PICKS UP THE LOW AND LIFTS IT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM WED-FRI


amazing that each office has a diffrent take on it. Guess we will just ahve to wait and see what will develope next week.

Woohoo might have some weather in Florida besides sunshine =) LOL
523. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OMAR...LOCATED ABOUT 670 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS
CENTERED INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM
NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
No lucie no bike week for me. Heading to my Condo in Venice for a week of fun and sun w/ family and friends
526. IKE
Morning StormW. Nice to see you sir.

Kids off to school I see.
Ah gotcha Storm.
omar has gotten the more extropical look about it. It (in my opinion) has gottan little better organized since yesterday night
522. Bonedog... LOL
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Morning...
good morning all!

I see there are something interesting things to watch.

Hope you all have a good day.
Hey Storm.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
good morning
Good morning all! For the first time in a week, here is my Graphical Tropical Update for this morning. Enjoy!
Mornin' all - great morning here in Melbourne! Hopefully, the 'things' the models are picking up on will not occur as it sounds like many of us have things planned that could be impacted, but hey weather will do what it will do!
Morning Spicy

Morning conchy
Quoting Bonedog:
Morning Spicy

Morning conchy
Morning Bone - hope you are able to get your friend on the plane with no problems. The chloroform should work! The weather will be great for you too!
yes it will conchy
LOL conchy. Everything should work out and yea I cant believe the good weather. I am bringing a cool front with me so temps should come down a bit and kill the humidity =)

My little present for you all =)
Quoting Bonedog:
LOL conchy. Everything should work out and yea I cant believe the good weather. I am bringing a cool front with me so temps should come down a bit and kill the humidity =)

My little present for you all =)
Low humidity is what we wait for all summer - thanks for the present. :)
Quoting StormW:
Good morning Spicy, cotillion, cycloone, IKE, conchy, cchs, and anyone I missed!
there are so few of us here now that it is relatively easy to say our good mornings. :)
your welcome conchy
Yeah, I'll probably stick around for the winter...

Updates would be coming on any extreme weather this side of the pond. :)
Cot I usually run a winter blog on here and have a few UK and Euro folks stop in if we are having a bad system over hear and I try to give them updates as it makes its way across the pond.
oops here not hear
luciefl, i am in your area and the weather has been great. How about the possibility of a halloween storm setting up here in Fl (gfs)
QuotinLucieFl:
Good Morning All,

Bonedog... Just wanted to wish you a safe trip to Florida. I am in Central Florida and just watched our local weather.....at least the weekend is going to be beautiful here. First chance of "rain" for Central Fl is Tuesday with 20%.

Enjoy your time in Sunny Florida.

Best of Luck getting your friend on the plane too.......
G'morning you folks this side of the pond, g'afternoon Cotillion
Clear, but humid, Humid, HUMID - expected high 85°F/29°C
Tomorrow we expect rain and high of 67°F/19°C

Bonedog - Has your friend tried hypnosis?

Re:2009 names - Grace? Yikes, some folks around here still remember Gracie-1959. Changed the way my folks viewed these storms, we were always evacuated (taken out of school if necessary) and taken to grandparents about 100 miles inland - Of course forcasting was not as fine tuned as now - so they erred on the side of caution.
Then there is the Grace-1991 (the perfect storm.)



Quoting ftpiercecane:
luciefl, i am in your area and the weather has been great. How about the possibility of a halloween storm setting up here in Fl (gfs)
QuotinLucieFl:
Good Morning All,

Bonedog... Just wanted to wish you a safe trip to Florida. I am in Central Florida and just watched our local weather.....at least the weekend is going to be beautiful here. First chance of "rain" for Central Fl is Tuesday with 20%.

Enjoy your time in Sunny Florida.

Best of Luck getting your friend on the plane too.......


No! My kids were devastated after Wilma because the town we were in canceled Halloween.
post 552. wilma was not good in eastcenfl. lost power for 4 days
Quoting ftpiercecane:
post 552. wilma was not good in eastcenfl. lost power for 4 days


I lived in Pompano Beach at the time and we were without power for over 2 weeks. I remember when the power first came back on you would have thought the Dolphins won the super bowl. All you could hear was celebrating through out our neighborhood. Fireworks started going off too.
not that I know of KEH. Normally he just drives everywhere
A wonderfull "mornin' all" from the sunshine state.
Bone, you're headed to a paradise. Don't forget your circle hooks and cast net. Remember, large greenies are Snook Candy.
Haven't seen Surfmom on yet. She's probably chasing frisky, hard headed ponies with "happy feet" about now.
thanks shepard. All my gear is already in the house ;) Keep it there instead of lugging it back and forth.

Hopefully the snook find the greenies as candy on my hook.
Morning KEH. :)
Quoting Bonedog:
Cot I usually run a winter blog on here and have a few UK and Euro folks stop in if we are having a bad system over hear and I try to give them updates as it makes its way across the pond.


Sounds good, I'll probably pop in there for a visit or two over the season.
Despite the computer model output this morning, I will be forecasting the cold front currently over the Southeast to pass through South Florida by late Saturday. Most computer models seem to indicate this morning that the cold front could possibly stall over my area here in South Florida, but with a strong high expected to build behind the front, it should provide just enough push for the cold front to clear the area. Can't wait for cooler and drier weather to start filtering in.
No problem Cotillion I will add you to my wundermail list. I send out a mail announcment when the blog gets updated.
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS shows a SW Florida hit.



yao-za!!!!!!!....morning Ike and everyone!!!!!!.....but are we buying what the gfs is now selling???????
cchsweatherman-how cooler will the temps be? I know silly, but we do excited with a down of 5 degrees.
GM all,I our warm air is gone,and we are back in chilly air up here again.
557. bone
Greenies won't fail you.
I'm with your friend...I've got a "no fly" policy. There would be claw marks all over the gangway if you tried to drag me onto one of those death traps. ;>)
I'm a water boy. I can hold my breath and swim if the air runs out, but I can't flap my arms and fly if the engine runs out. LOL
Quoting foggymyst:
cchsweatherman-how cooler will the temps be? I know silly, but we do excited with a down of 5 degrees.


In Charleston we are getting almost a 20F drop.
Would foggymyst get at least a 5F drop??
Quoting foggymyst:
cchsweatherman-how cooler will the temps be? I know silly, but we do excited with a down of 5 degrees.


Based upon the forecast that I will be publishing on my website later this morning, morning lows should be in the middle-to-upper 60s Sunday with highs in the lower 80s.
Same here NE got cold last night. Well at least Im running south during this spell and bringing it with me LOL

stillwaiting, seems the HPC and local met offices believe it will either be an inverted trough or a Low but so far none are saying a tropical system with that run of the GFS and the Euro
LOL shepard. I know what you mean. I am pretty bad I would rather drive then fly but if flying is the only way then the meds come out.
Good morning

It looks as if TD 16 is trying to make a comeback near 17N 85W

The CMC has been calling for something like that for several days now in that same location
Mid 50s or so here. Typical October temperature.

Down to about high 40s at night.
good eyes Kman HPC siad its a closed low in association with the broader circulation
46 here went to 38 last night and going downhill fast from here
I know y'all say there is no stupid question.
I happen to disagree ;)
However, since y'all have always been kind enough to respond to my questions, here goes:

Looking at the following graphic

So...the Low is the weather we will have tomorrow with it's 50% chance of rain. That will be followed by the High (from Sunday on for some days we will be enjoying markedly less humid days) Am I right so far?
If so... what happens to all the humidity we have been experiencing? Does it get pushed south? is it absorbed by the high?

First frost this weekend,all downhill from here,still waiting for the first nor'easter
576. IKE
You can kind of read between the lines on this portion of the latest tropical weather outlook about TD16...

Development of this system is not anticipated in the Caribbean Sea
within the next two days.


Reads like something may redevelop after 2 days....
574. KEHCharleston - I am in South Carolina
KEH in response to your question yes you are right the Low followed by the High
Quoting IKE:
You can kind of read between the lines on this portion of the latest tropical weather outlook about TD16...

Development of this system is not anticipated in the Caribbean Sea
within the next two days.


Reads like something may redevelop after 2 days....


Allowing us to enjoy the weekend, perhaps. I know I will be - off to York for a couple of days with friends, should be fun.

Even better if the hurricane season held off until Nov 5th... could sleep through the election, and wake up to have Bonfire Night. :)
Good morning, This is my first time posting here so glad to be among the community. Looks like a low is trying to get its act together in th SW Carib. Latest Sat loops clearly show the circulation and looks like the e-wall model for cmc and gfs has begun to pick it up. Any opinions?
to the second part the humity gets absorbed by the front and displaced then any residual evaporates under the high pressure
looks to me like there's a ULL right in the center or the Bay of guat.,and it appear to be working down to the surface????...could be a new invest in less than 48hrs imo....
So...the Low is the weather we will have tomorrow with it's 50% chance of rain. That will be followed by the High (from Sunday on for some days we will be enjoying markedly less humid days) Am I right so far?
If so... what happens to all the humidity we have been experiencing? Does it get pushed south? is it absorbed by the high?


That isn't stupid, as I dunno either. Though, I didn't think humidity had anything to do with pressure. More of a temperature thing.
Thanks Bonedog for your answer re:574

It is good to know that the humid air here will not appreciably contribute to adding humidity in the much watched Caribbean
Thanks Cotillion for your answer re:574
No problem KEH.

high pressure causes the air to sink transporting drier air aloft down to the surface and will tend to evaporate the humidity thru mixing of the air eventually the stronger air mass filters to the surface after a cold front passes....I think..
correct stillwaiting
581 Bone
I agree. Evaporation and latent heat loss.
Good morning everyone. Starting to get colder in the NE after the cold front came through last night. Looks quite in the tropics again.
Quoting NEwxguy:
First frost this weekend,all downhill from here,still waiting for the first nor'easter


Some would say you already had a nor'easter this season. It was of the warmer variety, but ... same storm set up.
***big grin***
Thanks Bonedog, Cotillion, stillwaiting and theshepherd

You all are the greatest
Link

NOTHING can get going in the GOM or Caribbean with the current setup depicted in the current water vapor loop.

Just admit it EXPERTS, the season is done for the CONUSA and stop trying to find something out of nothing.

After Katrina the NHC is gun shy about everything so they want to make every little spin out in the tropics a named system or an invest to cover themselves.

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Good morning all! For the first time in a week, here is my Graphical Tropical Update for this morning. Enjoy!


Not going to happen with the current set up.
bonedog:I hope your sun tan lotion,beachwear and a good pair ...of sunglasses are ready....looks like you'll be arriving just in time for some of the best weather that SWFL has to offer SRQ weather...sunday~sunny,high 84,low66.....monday~sunny(suprise,suprise,LOL)high86,low64........humidity under 50%.....oh don't forget your sandle's!!!!!!
No problem KEH thats what we are all hear for to learn :)
Well, I've learned that too. :)

Quoting cmackla:
Link

NOTHING can get going in the GOM or Caribbean with the current setup depicted in the current water vapor loop.

Just admit it EXPERTS, the season is done for the CONUSA and stop trying to find something out of nothing.

After Katrina the NHC is gun shy about everything so they want to make every little spin out in the tropics a named system or an invest to cover themselves.



You must remember that environmental conditions in the atmosphere are constantly changing. Just because the environment currently would prohibit tropical development, that doesn't mean that three to five days down the road the conditions will remain the same. Computer models are portraying much more favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis in about four to five days. That is why I have made mention for this area so that noone will be caught off guard if something does develop in the region.
stillwaiting all that stuff is already in FL waiting for me LOL. I just basically pack a bag with a few items of clothing not already down there. True snowbird style LOL
Quoting StormW:
594. cmackla 9:39 AM EDT on October 17, 2008
Link

NOTHING can get going in the GOM or Caribbean with the current setup depicted in the current water vapor loop.

Just admit it EXPERTS, the season is done for the CONUSA and stop trying to find something out of nothing


Ok...go here, run the loop...look at the Yucatan Channel.

ECMWF


10 days out please...the NHC cannot even get a 5 day correct. And lets just say this model was correct, storm not coming my way..GOM is cut off with shear, troughs, and cold fronts. Admit it Gulf Coast storms are done..its after Oct 15th and for a storm to hit LA or even come close to LA the odds are 1 in a trillion
LOL Storm. I didnt even justify that comment with a response I just dumped it off the screen LOL
Quoting Bonedog:
LOL Storm. I didnt even justify that comment with a response I just dumped it off the screen LOL



ditto
Quoting cchsweatherman:


You must remember that environmental conditions in the atmosphere are constantly changing. Just because the environment currently would prohibit tropical development, that doesn't mean that three to five days down the road the conditions will remain the same. Computer models are portraying much more favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis in about four to five days. That is why I have made mention for this area so that noone will be caught off guard if something does develop in the region.


Well do you live anywhere along the gulf coast...as I have said before most experts on this board do not yet they try to tell the locals who do that our season is not over when WE the ones who do live here know when our season is done.
Dry air is sometimes a bit overplayed to be honest.

Many forget that a storm can moisten its own environment. And the consistency of dry air changes.

Wind shear is pretty high right by the coast but doesn't seem too bad across the rest of the Caribbean right now.
Quoting cmackla:


Not going to happen with the current set up.


You must remember that environmental conditions in the atmosphere are constantly changing. Just because the environment currently would prohibit tropical development, that doesn't mean that three to five days down the road the conditions will remain the same. Computer models are portraying much more favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis in about four to five days. That is why I have made mention for this area so that noone will be caught off guard if something does develop in the region.
Bonedog, We expect a full report upon your return.

602. cmackla - I did not get the impression we are talking GOM/La only - you may wish to broaden your "horizons", so to speak.
However, from your keyboard to God's ear.
596 Storm
That being observed, do I see a jet streak on the back side possibly driving jet stream further south. A footrace , maybe ?
no problem KEH

more then most likely the report will be something like

margarita
sleep
fish
margarita
sleep
fish

maybe ina diffrent order but you get the idea LOL
Quoting cmackla:


Well do you live anywhere along the gulf coast...as I have said before most experts on this board do not yet they try to tell the locals who do that our season is not over when WE the ones who do live here know when our season is done.


To answer your question; I don't live on the Gulf Coast. I reside in Southeast Florida. When I create the Graphical Tropical Updates on my website, I watch the entire basin as there are other places than the Gulf Coast or even the United States for that matter that get affected by tropical systems. Just ask Haiti about that. Through your comments, it becomes quite evident to other bloggers that you seem to think that the Gulf Coast is the only place that matters and that you're not considering other places that could get impacted by tropical systems. I have friends down in the Caribbean who access my site for such information.
605. cmackla
Calm down ol' buddy
I've lived in Fla for 58 years. We have 365 seasons a year. Whatever the blue dishes out. It's over when it's over. LOL
October Storms
apperently we have a pot stirer and one for that matter doesn't look at any discussion for the NHC or HPC or their local forcast office so why keep feeding it?

615. myway
cmackla
You statement was it is over for the conus. Last time I checked a map, the conus was slightly more than the gom.
stop feeding the troll :)~
I wonder where surfmom and pottery are

Cotillion, you, pottery and others had an interesting discussion yesterday about how to rate storms.

I thought as a civilian, I would throw in my 2 cents.

I like the idea of a rating that denotes Winds/Surge/Rain - I think that would have meaning for most people.
In addition I think coastal areas should have designations for each - my location in Charleston might be rated for a 2 Wind, 2 Surge, 1 Rain storm. If it is anticipated that a storm will have a greater number in any of those catogories, then evacuation would be put in place. I have some ideas how to get the areas rated, but more about that later.

What do you think?
And from 613, that's just what climatology points out. An estimate, a suggestion. It doesn't say it cannot form in the places not highlighted. Case in point, our 'B' storm:


616 Bone
You're right...My bad
I'm outta here..dragging one of the boats over to Indian River Lagoon and Sebastian Inlet to terrorise the snook and trout population....lol
RE:619. theshepherd
Hope you sneak up on the snook
617 KEH
Allready have one.
IKE..Intergrated Kenetic Energy 1-6. Total storm effect.
If I remember correctly Ike surpassed Katrina on this scale by a couple of tenths.
622 Storm
LMAO
Ok, this time I mean it. I'm outta here. Too nice a day....lol
Quoting KEHCharleston:
I wonder where surfmom and pottery are

Cotillion, you, pottery and others had an interesting discussion yesterday about how to rate storms.

I thought as a civilian, I would throw in my 2 cents.

I like the idea of a rating that denotes Winds/Surge/Rain - I think that would have meaning for most people.
In addition I think coastal areas should have designations for each - my location in Charleston might be rated for a 2 Wind, 2 Surge, 1 Rain storm. If it is anticipated that a storm will have a greater number in any of those catogories, then evacuation would be put in place. I have some ideas how to get the areas rated, but more about that later.

What do you think?


Geography is an important factor, as well as the countries that will be hit. I'm of the opinion that an academic scale and a public scale need to be fused together to provide the best service.

(To categorise properly and address all the elements, as well as allowing people to make the best actions according to all the evidence.)
Well, I'm off out for the weekend.

Play nice. ;)
snook bite has been good here in eastcenfl,still have a decent amount of mullet around
Good afternoon... back for a while at least.
APOD (The sky is falling!)
APOD
(The sky is falling!)
quick peek - it's a work-lurk day - sunny greetings to all!!!B/4 school horse morning - aghh! Horses thought we were NUTS (and we were) Incredible beauty though with the bright moon setting to the west and the sunrise breaking on the horizon out east. Weather is just beautiful here now, Mother Nature of SWFL is getting ready to welcome back her Native Son Bone Dog!!!

Can't stay on - Spouse is in the office....try to get back later.......Plans to leave this coast for the EAST coast are now confirmed...if the waves are not coming to me... Well, I am going to them!! First vacation in 2years - if I can survived the prep work -- I'll be on a beach looking for Captain Jack Sparrow and riding waves Monday afternoon.... I knew mucking those stalls would pay off LOL - Yoo HOOO
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