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Omar dies, but leaves behind plenty of damage

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on October 18, 2008

Tropical Storm Omar has lost all of its heavy thunderstorm activity, and has been declared dead by NHC. The cleanup continues on those Caribbean islands hit by Omar's rain, wind, storm surge, and high waves, though. Reports from some of the islands to the right of Omar's path indicate that a significant storm surge topped by high battering waves did significant damage to coastal buildings and beaches. The storm's unusual west-to-east motion resulted in storm surge and waves affecting the western side of the islands, which are not as well-defended against these effects. These normally sheltered coastal regions tend to have higher amounts of development, as well. Thankfully, no deaths or injuries have been reported from the storm, which avoided making a direct hit on any islands. The islands should be fully recovered by the time the main tourist season begins in November. Hard hit were:

Dominica
The Office of Disaster Management reports widespread infrastructural damage to roads, sea defenses, ports and utilities from sea swells. The main port was damaged and the Ferry Terminal was extensively damaged. The cruise ship ports were slightly damaged. All barge access for hauling sand and stones were totally destroyed. About 125 people were made homeless by the storm.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines
The western coast of St. Vincent and the Grenadines was severely impacted by swells from Hurricane Omar. Preliminary assessment has indicated widespread flooding, significant erosion, and destruction and damage to coastal property and businesses in the Kingstown areas, Central Leeward, East St. George and the Northern and Southern Grenadines.The Cruise Ship terminal building received significant damage and the businesses housed in the terminal were evacuated. Approximately 20 shops housed in the Bus Terminal in the area of Little Tokyo were destroyed by the battering waves and several others were damaged from the flood waters.

St. Kitts and Nevis
There has been significant coastal damage on the south-western end of the island. Approximately 50 people have been displaced, 30 houses sustained minor damages while nine houses sustained major damages.

Anguilla
Anguillanews.com reports damage to a number of beach front hotels, with many boats grounded.

Antigua
Antigua received 5.71" of rain at the airport, and severe flooding washed out roads and prompted many boat rescues, putting up to 100 people in shelters. Crop damage was heavy, and Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer warned of a produce shortage, saying the farming community "appears to have suffered an extensive loss of crops."

St. Croix
St. Croix, whose eastern tip caught the eyewall winds of Omar, received $700,000 in damage to roads, and had about 40 boats damaged or destroyed in the main harbor. About half of the island's 55,000 people remained with power on Friday, and damage to crops was heavy.


Figure 1. Track of Hurricane Omar. Image credit: reliefweb.org

Elsewhere in the tropics
Heavy rains continue over the Central American nations of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and El Salvador, in association with the remains of Tropical Depression Sixteen. Mudslides and flash flooding have killed three people in Costa Rica and left two more missing, according to ticotimes.net. The remains of TD 16 are expected to remain over land and not regenerate into a tropical storm in either the Atlantic or Pacific.

A small area of heavy thunderstorms is between Jamaica and Haiti, moving west-northwest. This disturbance is under about 15-20 knots of wind shear, is surrounded by dry air, and is too small to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days.

Wind shear is expected to be low over most of the Caribbean during the coming week, and we need to watch the Western Caribbean for tropical storm development. The GFS and Canadian computer models are predicting the development of a tropical depression in the northwestern Caribbean near the western tip of Cuba 5-7 days from now. The other computer models predict that wind shear will be too high in this region to allow a tropical cyclone to develop. If a storm did develop in this region, it would likely move north or northeastward and affect the Gulf Coast of Florida. The likelihood of a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico over the next ten days is about 20%, and is about 40% in the Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
There continues to be an urgent need for relief supplies in the wake of Hurricane Ike. I recommend contributions to the portlight.org charity fund, formed by wunderground members to serve the needs of those often bypassed by traditional relief efforts. Contributions are fully tax-deductible, and more details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.


Figure 2. Damage to Antigua from Hurricane Omar. Image credit: Iain Mellows.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great update, Dr. M!
Thank you Jeff
Thanks for the update on the damage from Omar and the tropics in general. I was watching the sorm near Haiti and will be watching it for the next few days.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite, Area of Interest BOC/West Caribbean
Numerous models have this system developing and going into the GOM
Blog is very slow.. can't be high traffic.. must be rusty from lack of posts when nothing is happening :)
Looks to me like the remnants of TD16 are moving offshore of Belize & Honduras eastward back into the Caribbean Sea, I still think this might be an area to watch in the coming days.
so will Omar be retired??
Indeed the caribbean looks nice this upcoming week for TC formation but look north.

Quoting cycloone:
so will Omar be retired??


I doubt...it didn't cause any serious injuries or death to anyone. JMO
Yep 23...the entire GOM will be protected by high shear...
Quoting cycloone:
so will Omar be retired??
don't know, but I think it was absolutely amazing that no one died, with all the drama that the storm caused
Loved the map! PR dodged a big one this time. It could have been so much worse.
too small for development said dr masters yet i see some turning in the clouds.
h23- That shear map looks like we may be able to put a fork in this hurricane season. It looks done. (hopefully)

thanks for the update. sorry to hear about the damage in those areas due to OMARS crazy"LENNYlike" path...guess canes like rum too.. everyone have a great afternoon & i will talk to you all later, or send me a message if need be & i will respond later!
It is a good thing that the storm went in between the islands - could have been much worse.

The naturally protected coves and areas suffered the most, due to the unusual direction of the storm.
I may regret this, but what is the absolute fascination with what storm gets retired. Other than whether people should evacuate, there is more time spent arguing over this than almost any other topic. (the not to be mentioned gw will be left out lol)
x-rated swirl just se of jamaica looks like the windshear is too high
Quoting Dakster:
h23- That shear map looks like we may be able to put a fork in this hurricane season. It looks done. (hopefully)

no not done based on current information from surface observations sat presentations and gem global model information system to dev by 12 z sat near sw tip hati e of jam track wnw towards western cubalate mon dev heavy convective area 75 too 100 mm of rain in 24 hrs then out into gom tue wed nw ward towards la coast fla pan handle thur fri this is current information awaiting latest 12noon global model input to see if this pattern maintains its dipiction
Quoting Dakster:
h23- That shear map looks like we may be able to put a fork in this hurricane season. It looks done. (hopefully)



My comments are in regards to something tracking towards florida/gulf.Theres a decent chance someone may try to pop down there in the coming week as models have been showing.As indicated by the NWS in miami the 12z ensemble mean showed a broad surface trough showing enhanced precip in florida.
Quoting hurricane23:


My comments are in regards to something tracking towards florida/gulf.Theres a decent chance someone may try to pop down there in the coming week as models have been showing.As indicated by the NWS in miami the 12z ensemble mean showed a broad surface trough showing enhanced precip in florida.
if things work out expect coldest air of the season settling down over conus 4 to 5 days from now or mid week as deep low dev over cen plains droppin sse ward towards west gom and whatever may dev over west cuba getting drawn up n nw then n ne towards the rtn southerly flow over western gom up over fla al miss la gulf coast then across the spine towards lakes

as always this is only a model things can and will change as we progress towards this outcome
This front is a non-issue in regards to cold weather or severe weather.First front of the season by the way.

Here's a High Reso of florida.

Quoting hurricane23:
This front is a non-issue in regards to cold weather or severe weather.First front of the season by the way.

Here's a High Reso of florida.

thats just the starter should drif ne but the next one later in the week if it materializesmay be significant
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats just the starter should drif ne but the next one later in the week if it materializesmay be significant


I'm really new at this, so please forgive me -- I'm trying to learn -- but shouldn't the shear just about obliterate anything that makes it north of Naples in the GOM?
Thanks for the update, Dr.

Slow day on the blogs, Omar dies, nothing threatening to develop immediately, and wishcasting advisories are placed into effect.

By the way, my contest continues.

Link
Quoting Movingforward:


I'm really new at this, so please forgive me -- I'm trying to learn -- but shouldn't the shear just about obliterate anything that makes it north of Naples in the GOM?


If a storm gets to Naples without harm, it's very lucky. But yes, shear will take apart the storm.
hey there-
hopefully, nothing will form in the W. Car. that would cause an immediate threat to Key West (especially in 6 days). Our huge Fantasy Fest event begins today, culminating into 75,000 people watching our downtown parade on Saturday the 25th. It could be a huge finacial disaster, even if we are just threatened and all that money stays away. I doubt that will happen though
(Movingforward) wind shear is a change in wind velocity (speed and/or direction) with height. Shear can rip a tropical cyclone apart or keep one from forming by preventing the convection from building.

You can view those maps HERE from CIMSS.

Adrian
Quoting KeyWestwx:
hey there-
hopefully, nothing will form in the W. Car. that would cause an immediate threat to Key West (especially in 6 days). Our huge Fantasy Fest event begins today, culminating into 75,000 people watching our downtown parade on Saturday the 25th. It could be a huge finacial disaster, even if we are just threatened and all that money stays away. I doubt that will happen though


At the moment, other than some rain and thunderstorms, it looks clear for you
hurricane-wise.
Quoting hurricane23:
(Movingforward) wind shear is a change in wind velocity (speed and/or direction) with height. Shear can rip a tropical cyclone apart or keep one from forming by preventing the convection from building.

You can view those maps HERE from CIMSS.

Adrian


Hey H23, thanks for that information & link - it was very helpful! I already added it to My Favorites. I guess that does seem to confirm what I was thinking.

And, KeyWestWx -- I hope you guys have a great Fantasy Fest this year! I've always wanted to get down there. Take some pics and share them if you get a chance!
It's a little premature to be placing bets on what the shear might be in the GOM during that time frame:


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA TO FL BIG BEND TO 25N93W TO
19N95W. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO PSN 31N75W TO FL STRAITS TO E
BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. THE ATLC SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH BERMUDA SUN NIGHT REACHING PSN FROM 31N63W TO 23N79W
THEN QUASI STATIONARY OVER NW CARIBBEAN INTO A PERSISTENT BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRES VICINITY OF BELIZE AROUND SUNRISE MON.
ATLC SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE E MON AND MON NIGHT
EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO SE BAHAMAS AROUND SUNRISE TUE...WITH
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG 22N77W ACROSS CUBA INTO
THE CONTINUED LOW PRES NEAR BELIZE. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THE LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE E COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN LIFT NE ACROSS THE SE GULF MAINTAINING A
TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE W PORTION SW ATLC ZONE AND OVER THE E
GULF OF MEXICO. OTHER MODELS WASH OUT THE FRONT AND WEAKEN THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN.

This is the slowest I've ever seen the blogs
This is my expectancy of retired storms this year:

Arthur 5%
Bertha 6%
Cristobal 1%
Dolly 68%
Edourad 4%
Fay 63%
Gustav 99.99%
Hanna 89%
Ike 99.999999999999999999999999999999999%
Josephine 1%
Kyle 3%
Laura 1%
Marco 6%
Nana >1%
Omar 40%?

Caribbean disturbance I would say due to low shear, it could become a depression

Possibly the cape verde disturbance could become a depression, it's also under low-ish shear.
my version:

Arthur 2%
Bertha 2%
Cristobal 0%
Dolly 52%
Edourad 1%
Fay 17%
Gustav 100%
Hanna 92%
Ike 100%
Josephine 0%
Kyle 7%
Laura 0%
Marco 1%
Nana >0%
Omar 25%
37. IKE
12Z CMC...Link


34. cycloone 12:04 PM CDT on October 18, 2008
This is the slowest I've ever seen the blogs


Wait till winter-time...it'll be slower.


Quoting stormdude77:


I doubt...it didn't cause any serious injuries or death to anyone. JMO

It doesn't need to kill someone it just needs to be very destructive or very deadly but I don't think it caused enough damage for retirement
Quoting all4hurricanes:

It doesn't need to kill someone it just needs to be very destructive or very deadly but I don't think it caused enough damage for retirement


Yah, I mean Elena didn't even cause deaths (direct), and Dora only caused 1. However, I don't think Omar will be retired.
stoems like gustav and ike will definetley be retired they both caused tremendous damage
OMG. I leave for an hour and there have been 8 posts. That's a rate of one every 7.5 minutes. That's really slow. It's been slower in March!!

Anyway, since everyone is doing a list of percent chance of retirement, I will attempt my own:

Arthur: 2%
Bertha: 2%
Cristobal: 2%
Dolly: 50%
Edouard: 10%
Fay: 20%
Gustav: 100%
Hanna: 95%
Ike: 100%
Josephine: 0%
Kyle: 20%
Laura: 0%
Marco: 2%
Nana: 0%
Omar: 30%

That is so far in the season. Of course, we will have another Category 4.
And my version so far
Arthur:19%
Bertha:22%
Cristobal:13%
Dolly:78%
Edouard:16%
Fay:43%
Gustav:93%
Hanna:67%
Ike:87%
Josephine:13%
Kyle:32%
Laura:13%
Marco:16%
Nana:10%
Omar:64%
my version

arthur:1 %

bertha:3%

cristobal: 0%

dolly:48%

eduard: 1%

fay: 36%

gustav: 100%

hanna: 92%

ike: 100%

josephine: 0%

kyle: 13%

laura: 0%

marco: 3%

nana: 0%

omar: 32%

Arthur 0%
Bertha 0%
Cristobal 0%
Dolly 0%
Edourad 0%
Fay 0%
Gustav 100%
Hanna 0%
Ike 100%
Josephine 0%
Kyle 0%
Laura 0%
Marco 0%
Nana 0%
Omar 0%
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Arthur 0%
Bertha 0%
Cristobal 0%
Dolly 0%
Edourad 0%
Fay 0%
Gustav 100%
Hanna 0%
Ike 100%
Josephine 0%
Kyle 0%
Laura 0%
Marco 0%
Nana 0%
Omar 0%


????
Quoting hurricane23:
This front is a non-issue in regards to cold weather or severe weather.First front of the season by the way.

Here's a High Reso of florida.




a wind shift,drier air and slighly lower day/night time temps...thats it for this front for us down here in SWFL as our southerly flow should return by tuesday,bring us a much more tropical atmosphere as the UL and LL flow should both be out of the SW by wed/thurs,if something does develop down in the west carib. it'll surely be headed toward my coast....we'll have to wait another month probably for a real "cold front",but...........we'll be waiting!!!!
Mine.
Arthur. .1%
Bertha 0%
Cristobal .1%
Dolly 40%
Edouard 5%
Fay 60%
Gustav 100%
Hanna 80%
Ike 100%
Josephine 0%
Kyle 20%
Laura 0%
Marco 0%
Nana 0%
Omar 30%
Jumping in, guess I'll give my version too

Arthur 4%
Bertha 2%
Cristobal 0%
Dolly 85%
Edouard 1%
Fay 77%
Gustav 100%
Hanna 50%
Ike 100%
Josephine 0%
Kyle 3%
Laura 0%
Marco 1%
Nana 0%
Omar 15%
Even not finish the Hurricane Season,a retired names hurricane cause exceed a Billion dollar and sometimes surprisingly high death toll.
So far we had Gustav,Ike at very high chance to
be retire,Dolly a high chance and probably Hanna
and Omar too.It could be an incredible names retired this season as not finish yet.
Remember, Gordon of 1994 killed over one thousand people in Haiti and was not retired because of Haiti's poor preparedness for hurricanes and tropical storms
Per NHC

Scratch one yellow circle

Although still in the 2pm outlook, but not on graphic - wierd
Quoting Dar9598:
And my version so far
Arthur:19%
Bertha:22%
Cristobal:13%
Dolly:78%
Edouard:16%
Fay:43%
Gustav:93%
Hanna:67%
Ike:87%
Josephine:13%
Kyle:32%
Laura:13%
Marco:16%
Nana:10%
Omar:64%


You're a good equalizer... you like to give everyone a chance

Quoting 954FtLCane:

Arthur 0%
Bertha 0%
Cristobal 0%
Dolly 0%
Edourad 0%
Fay 0%
Gustav 100%
Hanna 0%
Ike 100%
Josephine 0%
Kyle 0%
Laura 0%
Marco 0%
Nana 0%
Omar 0%


So no one else in the word matters except for the Americans?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Mine.
Arthur. .1%
Bertha 0%
Cristobal .1%
Dolly 40%
Edouard 5%
Fay 60%
Gustav 100%
Hanna 80%
Ike 100%
Josephine 0%
Kyle 20%
Laura 0%
Marco 0%
Nana 0%
Omar 30%


Much more realistic than most. Gives other storms a chance, but realizes that the bar for storms that don't hit the U.S. is much higher for retiring.

Just a quick cross-section of the blog. Looks like all parties are represented equally.
Quoting hurricane23:
This front is a non-issue in regards to cold weather or severe weather.First front of the season by the way.

Here's a High Reso of florida.



We've already had two/three fronts pass by. The first one in late September.
Quoting weatherbro:


We've already had two fronts pass by. The first one in late September.


Depends on where you live in Florida. Unless all of the state was affected, maybe hurricane23 was not affected by the prior two fronts. But yes, this will be your third.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Per NHC

Scratch one yellow circle


Scratch the circle yes.. but that area is where the next system is coming from.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Scratch the circle yes.. but that area is where the next system is coming from.


Haven't ruled it out, trust me.
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Arthur 0%
Bertha 0%
Cristobal 0%
Dolly 0%
Edourad 0%
Fay 0%
Gustav 100%
Hanna 0%
Ike 100%
Josephine 0%
Kyle 0%
Laura 0%
Marco 0%
Nana 0%
Omar 0%


I vote for this one
Thanks HurriStat, as you know that between 10 to 50% won't be retire but over 70% is really not a
mystery for anyone else, however.
Quoting KeyWestwx:
hey there-
hopefully, nothing will form in the W. Car. that would cause an immediate threat to Key West (especially in 6 days). Our huge Fantasy Fest event begins today, culminating into 75,000 people watching our downtown parade on Saturday the 25th. It could be a huge finacial disaster, even if we are just threatened and all that money stays away. I doubt that will happen though




I remember when wilma delayed that festival......same suspect area......sheer forcasts are usually not very accurate after 72hrs and even less accurate past 120hrs!!! the upperlevel enviornement should be condusive in the eastern GOM in the next 5-10 days as this time of yr the battle of the seasons begins in the sub-tropical region w/sheer values changing not staying the same for 10 days strait,i.e.~ sheer is always changing and what is not condusive now maybe condusive in days to come,JMO....
59. stillwaiting

Very valid point. Having lived in FL all my life, as I have said here many times, I don't trust ANY forecast more than 3 days out. Weather here can change fast, sometimes hourly.
so we can all agree that gustav and ike will be retired right?
It appears that the area in the SW Carib is slowly becoming better organized. Recent IRD Sat. loops show convection slowly building. Steering currents are week however the front dropping into the southern Gomex should start to influence this system. Models are mixed at this point. Next 24-48 hours should give us a better idea. As for the little yellow circle not being there, what would we have done before there were little yellow circles.
Quoting weatherman113:
so we can all agree that gustav and ike will be retired right?


Ike yes.. Gustav probably
Quoting stillwaiting:




I remember when wilma delayed that festival......same suspect area......sheer forcasts are usually not very accurate after 72hrs and even less accurate past 120hrs!!! the upperlevel enviornement should be condusive in the eastern GOM in the next 5-10 days as this time of yr the battle of the seasons begins in the sub-tropical region w/sheer values changing not staying the same for 10 days strait,i.e.~ sheer is always changing and what is not condusive now maybe condusive in days to come,JMO....


yep- this time of year can be very difficult to forecast- so many values come into play. Just keep the rain off of my parade!!!!!
Quoting RobDaHood:
Per NHC

Scratch one yellow circle

Although still in the 2pm outlook, but not on graphic - wierd


Funny that's the one I thought had the most potential of the 3 yellow circles, in fact TWC was talking about it earlier for possible development, maybe they are getting ready to put in the orange circle :), I guess these NHC forecasters been at this a long time and know what they're doing so I personally wouldn't second guess them.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite picture Omar ... Omar

Present Satellite, Area of Interest BOC/West Caribbean
Numerous models have this system developing and heading into the GOM

Present Satellite, Area of Interest Trinidad & Tobago
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Haiti
Present Satellite picture Caribbean

Time Left ... in Hurricane Season
65. stormpetrol

If something heads toward FL it probably comes from that direction, as Orca says. Lots of variables in how the models have been handling things, so very little guidance...wait & see mode.

I still think someone down there has ex-TD16 tethered to a flagpole!
In regards of what names will be retired this year, I only think Gustav and Ike will be. Theoretically, that's all that needs to be retired. Hanna may have killed 400 people, but let's be real here; even a tropical disturbance can kill 100s or 1000s in Haiti. In that regard (not trying to sound ill-compassionate), Hanna is not out of the ordinary. I would also be pretty disappointed if Dolly and Fay got retired.
Gustav is the strongest storm at landfall this year 150 MPH winds over Cuba ,as well one of the most destructive and deadly hurricanes so far,
so it's not probably, it will be retire and not use anymore.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Funny that's the one I thought had the most potential of the 3 yellow circles, in fact TWC was talking about it earlier for possible development, maybe they are getting ready to put in the orange circle :), I guess these NHC forecasters been at this a long time and know what they're doing so I personally wouldn't second guess them.


I only see two circles. Where's the third.
Dolly must be retired to it was not as costly as Ike and Rita but cost over a billion.
Quoting hurristat:


I only see two circles. Where's the third.


area 1 Yucatan is not circled on the map now, but still listed in the text outlook. Probably an error in the graphic...should still be there
Quoting KoritheMan:
In regards of what names will be retired this year, I only think Gustav and Ike will be. Theoretically, that's all that needs to be retired. Hanna may have killed 400 people, but let's be real here; even a tropical disturbance can kill 100s or 1000s in Haiti. In that regard (not trying to sound ill-compassionate), Hanna is not out of the ordinary. I would also be pretty disappointed if Dolly and Fay got retired.


But that's the mentality of many. Just because the country is not very prepared for it doesn't mean the name isn't loaded for those people. The whole purpose of retiring names is to prevent those who lost everything or loved ones to a hurricane or a storm from getting very depressed every 6 years. If your relatives were killed in Hurricane Josephine (hypothetical), you wouldn't want someone to go around and name a hurricane that again just because of the psychological burden it holds for you. Even though tropical disturbances can kill many in Haiti, none of the names like 91L are ever retired. That's because those names don't hold any psychological weight with them. If someone used Katrina or Wilma again, there would be a large outcry of people who are afraid of the storm and when they hear about Hurricane Katrina forming in September 2011, they'll go into a depressive state. Should the Haitians have to go through all that just with Hanna just because they're a poor country?
Quoting hurristat:


I only see two circles. Where's the third.




Click to enlarge
Quoting Dar9598:
Dolly must be retired to it was not as costly as Ike and Rita but cost over a billion.


I'm sorry, but no. South Texas and northeastern Mexico frequently get hurricanes as powerful as Dolly was. Hell, Emily wasn't retired, and it hit that same area as a Category 3 (as opposed to Dolly, who was only a minimal Category 2). If Emily wasn't retired, Dolly shouldn't be.

I'm respectfully disagreeing with you here. Honestly, if we're going to retire storms like Dolly, we'll be retiring quite a bit of storms each year, which is, if you want me to get blunt, pointless. We need to retire memorable hurricane names, and practically everyone has forgotten about Dolly at this point.

We should retire storms like Andrew, Camille, Dean, Felix, Gustav, and Ike.

Again, just respectfully disagreeing with you. I'm a blunt kinda guy, so don't take offense. ;)
Quoting RobDaHood:


area 1 Yucatan is not circled on the map now, but still listed in the text outlook. Probably an error in the graphic...should still be there


Oh. I see it now. There's a little yellow dot over Guatemala, but it is very small. Thanks for the help.
Quoting hurristat:


But that's the mentality of many. Just because the country is not very prepared for it doesn't mean the name isn't loaded for those people. The whole purpose of retiring names is to prevent those who lost everything or loved ones to a hurricane or a storm from getting very depressed every 6 years. If your relatives were killed in Hurricane Josephine (hypothetical), you wouldn't want someone to go around and name a hurricane that again just because of the psychological burden it holds for you. Even though tropical disturbances can kill many in Haiti, none of the names like 91L are ever retired. That's because those names don't hold any psychological weight with them. If someone used Katrina or Wilma again, there would be a large outcry of people who are afraid of the storm and when they hear about Hurricane Katrina forming in September 2011, they'll go into a depressive state. Should the Haitians have to go through all that just with Hanna just because they're a poor country?


While I see your point, if we're going by this mentality, we may as well retire every storm that hits Haiti, because undoubtedly, they will cause a significant amount of deaths in that country.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm sorry, but no. South Texas and northeastern Mexico frequently get hurricanes as powerful as Dolly was. Hell, Emily wasn't retired, and it hit that same area as a Category 3 (as opposed to Dolly, who was only a minimal Category 2). If Emily wasn't retired, Dolly shouldn't be.

I'm respectfully disagreeing with you here. Honestly, if we're going to retire storms like Dolly, we'll be retiring quite a bit of storms each year, which is, if you want me to get blunt, pointless. We need to retire memorable hurricane names, and practically everyone has forgotten about Dolly at this point.

We should retire storms like Andrew, Camille, Dean, Felix, Gustav, and Ike.

Again, just respectfully disagreeing with you. I'm a blunt kinda guy, so don't take offense. ;)


When it comes to Dolly, though, I'm in the middle. Storms doing a billion dollars is a very common sight nowadays, sadly. Still, people are devastated when they come home to a flattened house.But the human loss is much more important than the monetary one. So, there are valid points to both sides.
Quoting KoritheMan:


While I see your point, if we're going by this mentality, we may as well retire every storm that hits Haiti, because undoubtedly, they will cause a significant amount of deaths in that country.


Well, Dolly caused 1.52 billion dollars in damage and 21 deathswhile Emily caused 550 million dollars in damage and 6 deaths.

IMO, Dolly should be retired along with Hanna, Gustav and Ike.
Quoting hurristat:


When it comes to Dolly, though, I'm in the middle. Storms doing a billion dollars is a very common sight nowadays, sadly. Still, people are devastated when they come home to a flattened house.But the human loss is much more important than the monetary one. So, there are valid points to both sides.


Well, the whole reason that tropical cyclones so frequently do a billion dollars in damage nowadays, is because of the immense development along coastal areas. Quite honestly, a lot of these "natural" disasters aren't "natural" at all. They are human-induced. We shouldn't be developing so much along the coasts, but unfortunately, because we as humans see things like a coastline as beautiful, we'll undoubtedly want to live along said coastlines. Thus, we'll develop there, as unwise as it may be.

But the point is, because a lot of these disasters cause more damage than they should, due to our development along coastal areas, they should not be retired.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Well, Dolly caused 1.52 billion dollars in damage and 21 deathswhile Emily caused 550 million dollars in damage and 6 deaths.

IMO, Dolly should be retired along with Hanna, Gustav and Ike.


See my post before this one (to hurristat), and maybe you'll change your mind? :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


While I see your point, if we're going by this mentality, we may as well retire every storm that hits Haiti, because undoubtedly, they will cause a significant amount of deaths in that country.


Not every storm that hits Haiti kills 400, 500 people. The perfect conditions were built up for Hanna to kill 500 people. Not only did Fay stall in the Haiti area, but then Gustav did too, and then to top it off, Hanna stalled for 3-4 days north of Haiti. Gustav is being retired for its landfall in Louisiana, but Hanna did the most damage in Haiti. That's my justification for retiring Hanna's name.

Also, we're not going to run out of names. We're tapping 3 languages for names. Three! I have a feeling we are being too conservative in retiring names. Even if we do run out of names, after 100 years, no one will remember the storm emotionally that caused their ancestors so much grief. Does anyone really cry anytime they think about the Indianola Hurricane? I don't think so. So, in a hundred years, it would not be out of the question to use Camille or Katrina again.
gustav and ike will definetley be retired hanna has a good shot
Mine:

Arthur 0%
Bertha 5%
Cristobal 15%
Dolly 74%
Edouard 1.5222221425252415278182726285717050425053%
Fay 76%
Gustav 1111111111111111%
Hanna 75%
Ike 99.9%
Josephine 5%
Kyle 7.3%
Laura -10%
Marco 6%
Nana -200000000000000000000000000%
Omar 45%

Possible Unnamed STS before Kyle - 20%
Aloha Amigos...I have survived my saki binge....RedCastle is far kinder in the morning. Interesting that the models are still holding on to some activity. Am I understanding the formation/seedling stage is 24-48 ...but that I wouldn't have to worry about it getting in the Gulf for several days after that. Yes, I am being piggy -- I want my Atlantic Ocean treat and then be home in time to get dessert from the Gulf.

In honor of BoneDOG -- Florida/SRQ has welcomed back her native son with a totally gorgeous day. I am so excited to know he's back and the day is totally gorgeous.

Geeze, he's even got a change of waves early tomorrow morning. Hummm I better drop him some mail
Quoting hurristat:


Not every storm that hits Haiti kills 400, 500 people. The perfect conditions were built up for Hanna to kill 500 people. Not only did Fay stall in the Haiti area, but then Gustav did too, and then to top it off, Hanna stalled for 3-4 days north of Haiti. Gustav is being retired for its landfall in Louisiana, but Hanna did the most damage in Haiti. That's my justification for retiring Hanna's name.

Also, we're not going to run out of names. We're tapping 3 languages for names. Three! I have a feeling we are being too conservative in retiring names. Even if we do run out of names, after 100 years, no one will remember the storm emotionally that caused their ancestors so much grief. Does anyone really cry anytime they think about the Indianola Hurricane? I don't think so. So, in a hundred years, it would not be out of the question to use Camille or Katrina again.


That'd be something. lol
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Mine:

Arthur 0%
Bertha 5%
Cristobal 15%
Dolly 74%
Edouard 1.5222221425252415278182726285717050425053%
Fay 76%
Gustav 1111111111111111%
Hanna 75%
Ike 99.9%
Josephine 5%
Kyle 7.3%
Laura -10%
Marco 6%
Nana -200000000000000000000000000%
Omar 45%

Possible Unnamed STS before Kyle - 20%


First, Unnamed SS cannot be retired, so the point of judging that is completely pointless. Second, a negative percent is the chance it will be a new name, that is kind of pointless.
And, in all reality, Ike has a larger chance than Gustav of being retired.


Just so everyone knows, I'm in rant mode today, so try not to take anything personal. You're all awesome.
Quoting KoritheMan:


That'd be something. lol


What does that mean, just out of curiosity.

Also, I would like everyone to read the entirety of the post before reading that last line. It makes much more sense in context.
Good afternoon all.
Its hot, and humid, but a bright day nonetheless.
Looking for some rains later and tonight, from the area just east of me ( Trinidad). Pretty quiet everywhere, considering..............
Quoting hurristat:


What does that mean, just out of curiosity.

Also, I would like everyone to read the entirety of the post before reading that last line. It makes much more sense in context.


What do you think it means? lol

I meant that it would be kind of cool, yet somewhat awkward, if we were to use names like that 100 years from now.
Afternoon, pottery...
Quoting KoritheMan:


What do you think it means? lol

I meant that it would be kind of cool, yet somewhat awkward, if we were to use names like that 100 years from now.


It just puzzled me a bit. Thanks for the clarification.
Quoting hurristat:


When it comes to Dolly, though, I'm in the middle. Storms doing a billion dollars is a very common sight nowadays, sadly. Still, people are devastated when they come home to a flattened house.But the human loss is much more important than the monetary one. So, there are valid points to both sides.


I know this is not part of the criteria for selecting names to be retired.. but it seems to fit. The name basically has to bring back memories of sheer terror for people. It's not based really on costs.

Ike and very possibly Gustav would do that. I don't think any of the others would actually do that
Quoting surfmom:
Aloha Amigos...


Hey surfmom,

was a bit concerned last night...How's that head today. Sake can be brutal!

Wasn't there a game this morning?
Hey Potter, One more day till I leave for my surf safari......get to taste the atlantic and maybe return to the gulf and get some dessert.... we shall see.... what Mother Nature and King Neptune decide.

KoritheMan you compare Emily to Dolly, Emily made landfall as a major hurricane in a sparsely area in Mexico with extensive damage while didn't kill much people that was good news comparing to Dean but it cost also well well under a Billion.
Dolly made landfall in a much more industrial area near Brownsville and it cost twice costly to Emily and was more deadly too.I remember in TWC some people said that it was the worse hurricane since many years and the hurricane expert said that it had a high chance to be retire because of this damage also it is one of the most costly in Texas behind Alicia, Ike and Rita and had a pressure bellow 965 MB.
Hi there Kori. All is well ?

ORCA, what happened to Potentially Phenomenal Possible Pottery ( the storm ) ?
Still innocent
heheheh
Quoting Dar9598:
KoritheMan you compare Emily to Dolly, Emily made landfall as a major hurricane in a sparsely area in Mexico with extensive damage while didn't kill much people that was good news comparing to Dean but it cost also well well under a Billion.
Dolly made landfall in a much more industrial area near Brownsville and it cost twice costly to Emily and was more deadly too.I remember in TWC some people said that it was the worse hurricane since many years and the hurricane expert said that it had a high chance to be retire because of this damage also it is one of the most costly in Texas behind Alicia, Ike and Rita and had a pressure bellow 965 MB.


Yeah, all that is true, but Orcasystems pretty much summed up what I was trying to say the whole time. Does the name of the hurricane invoke a depressing emotion for a large number of the population?
Surfmom, I really hope the waves are perfection while you are there. If not, lying on a beach for three days, drinking rum.........
Quoting pottery:
Hi there Kori. All is well ?

ORCA, what happened to Potentially Phenomenal Possible Pottery ( the storm ) ?
Still innocent
heheheh


Maybe next, if the NHC decides to forgo Paloma.
Oh yaaa. I looked a bit pinched when I got up....Sake is not my normal beverage of choice.... so I did pay in spades. I never drink and drive, got to add type and drink... although I had the cat on the monitor and min-aussie shep on my lap---dangerous combo.

Got up way early, stumbled through three miles of run and sweat the diesel fuel out. Gorgeous day in SWFL - still a bit warm for polo, but as these are pre-season games my son plays the horses very easy. The Argentine horse we hose prior to play, so he goes out with a wet butt, belly and chest....the race horse handles the heat very well, .....I don't want to clip/shave their coats till I get a sense of what kind of winter we will have.....last year was mild, so we kept them clipped and used blankets to keep them warm.... so as always that's why I'm here....getting a feel for what's ahead seasonally
geeze, look at my typo's -- I am still toasted from last night -- Got too partied & excited the young buck's getting a drivers permit on Monday halleujah!!!
101. surfmom

got to add type and drink...

No Worries...Almost caused major drama when you called KeyWestBrat KeyWestMan...LOL too funny.
Quoting surfmom:
last year was mild, so we kept them clipped and used blankets to keep them warm.... so as always that's why I'm here....getting a feel for what ahead seasonally


Aaaahh... heat. What is that again? Last year I had 10 inches of snow the ground and I still had school... I can see why so many people build on the beach in Texas and Florida.
97Pottery -- I do not know how innocent you are....IKE hung out w/you around your B-day and I think he got "juiced" on your rum
LOL Hurristat.
103Rob - I went back this morning and scrolled through to check my damage report.... I just didn't get it last night... but this AM oh geeze...wrote an WU mail and lol apologized.....
MOM, I am innocent until PROVEN otherwise. I still maintain, it wasnt me........ Ike had a mind all of his own.. I did what I could, but some of those guys, well, hard cases you know? LOL
You were misbehavin" last night Mom ???
I missed that ? I',m going back to see, heheheh
Quoting hurristat:


Aaaahh... heat. What is that again? Last year I had 10 inches of snow the ground and I still had school... I can see why so many people build on the beach in Texas and Florida.

Once I landed here I never left. I have been out of state for just a few vacation (and then to other beaches LOL) and only returned North once -- was totally miserable -- for 4 days

Got to wash dog BBL
Quoting pottery:
MOM, I am innocent until PROVEN otherwise. I still maintain, it wasnt me........ Ike had a mind all of his own.. I did what I could, but some of those guys, well, hard cases you know? LOL


I'll buy all that except the "I am innocent" part. LOL

Surfmom, it's all good. You've earned it and got us all in a cheerful mood to boot.
adjourning to the patio for a while.
ahh yes, a wee bit naughty Pottery, spouse looked like Captian Jack Sparrow by the end of the evening ROTFL......OK off to domestics, catch you all later.
Quoting surfmom:


Went outside for a second to shoot some hoops in a t-shirt... It's 50 degrees out there. 70 sounds really nice right now.
Rob, my mum always told me not to have anything to do with strangers that look like your avatar. heheheheh
And there you go, proving that, by assuming my guilt just so.LOL
I wonder what I did, to deserve this dastardly reputation.
Although, it seems to be working out just fine for me .
Think I will maintain the status quo, and continue as normal.
Quoting pottery:
Rob, my mum always told me not to have anything to do with strangers that look like your avatar. heheheheh
And there you go, proving that, by assuming my guilt just so.LOL
I wonder what I did, to deserve this dastardly reputation.
Although, it seems to be working out just fine for me .
Think I will maintain the status quo, and continue as normal.


LOL. But you gotta love dark, sinister manga characters.
The weather to my east is getting closer. Rain would be nice. We are in what we call "le petit careme " or small dry season. Happens every year around this time. we have had some brief, sharp showers, but no real rain since Ike passed through. Ground is hard, and water tanks are down by a 1/4. Need about 2200 gals to top them up.
True, Hurristat.
hello everyone,
I;m kinda surprised the yellow circle off of the yucatan/belize coast was removed. Looks somewhat messy down there from the satelite view
Quoting 954FtLCane:
hello everyone,
I;m kinda surprised the yellow circle off of the yucatan/belize coast was removed. Looks somewhat messy down there from the satelite view


Very interesting, but they probably have a reason. Also, if you look hard enough, there is a tiny yellow dot over central Guatemala. I don't think they are ignoring it completely just yet.
Well, I have to drive into the city of Port-of-Spain.
Not how I want to spend a Saturday afternoon, but its imperative, according to my wife.
So, see you all another time. Stay safe....
lol hurristat, that is the same size cilcle the nhc used for Marco before he was classified
Quoting pottery:
Hi there Kori. All is well ?

ORCA, what happened to Potentially Phenomenal Possible Pottery ( the storm ) ?
Still innocent
heheheh


Its still there..and I might point out.. the models have not ruled it out either
Here's the APOD

Front coming through. Potentially the last warm, sunny (earlier)weekend beach day goes by while I'm stuck at work. Maybe catch one more before the storm. LOL?
OK, I see. I clicked on the "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map" and when the satellite pic appeared it still showed "1" listed over the area off of Belize/Yucatan and like hurristat mentioned you can see a little yellow dot over Guatemala.. it looks like someone forgot to circle the area.
I know, I know, I have too much time on my hands this afternoon but hey that's my theory now try debunking it...hehehe
**SLOW BLOG WARNING**

AT 1600Z EDT, A SLOW BLOG DAY WAS INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR. THE BLOG WAS HEADING NOWHERE WAY TOO FAST. IF THE BLOG DOES NOT PICK UP PACE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, EMOTIONAL CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN. SEVERAL BLOGGERS MAY GIVE UP BECAUSE OF BOREDOM. THIS BLOG WAS SPOTTED AT...

WIND SHEAR AT 1200 HOURS
RETIRED NAMES AT 1400 HOURS
BAD BEHAVIOR AT 1500 HOURS
AND HEADING TOWARDS DEATH AND DESTRUCTION

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS BLOG...SEEK SHELTER IN A REINFORCED BUILDING... AS A LAST RESORT, HIDE IN A DITCH... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER SOME FURNITURE OR A TOOLBENCH.

THIS BLOG IS SO SLOW THAT THE FORECASTER RAN AWAY SCREAMING. THAT'S HOW DANGEROUS IT IS.

Gotta go. Have a fun day.
Do you think they'll 'retire; this blog if it gets any slower.
I say 50% this blog will be retired
Gustav 100%
Ike 100%
rofl Hurristat, that "Slow Blog Warning" literally just made my day.

Now I'm actually putting something after just lurking for a couple months, I've been keeping track of the insanity of this season, I doubt it's quite over yet.
Quoting pottery:
Rob, my mum always told me not to have anything to do with strangers that look like your avatar. heheheheh
And there you go, proving that, by assuming my guilt just so.LOL
I wonder what I did, to deserve this dastardly reputation.
Although, it seems to be working out just fine for me .
Think I will maintain the status quo, and continue as normal.


Okay, I leave the room and everybody starts talkin' smack about me...LOL

Your mama was probably a very wise woman!

Took one look at your pic and thought - now there's someone I could sit and toss back a few rum drinks with...it's all good pottery don't change.

116. hurristat

dark & sinister...yeah, but stay on my good side & I'm a pretty nice guy
131. IKE
Below normal temps in the 6-10 day extended forecast for the eastern USA....

132. IKE
If that 6-10 day outlook for temps for the eastern US verifies, then it is over for the US in 2008 for the tropics.
LOL. Some of us have kids. :)

Baseball, then "fall festival" at the school.

Been a long day already.

Thanks for pointing out the mini yellow (obviously a mistake in size and should be generally same as before). I popped on after all that, saw it gone from the main page, read the discussion and was looking at sat scratching my head.

Now off to work on the honey-do list that has been neglected and growing. Wife is losing patience.
I hope that verifies then for everyone's sake.
Even if it means we'll be in the mid-50's here... *shivers*
Quoting IKE:
If that 6-10 day outlook for temps for the eastern US verifies, then it is over for the US in 2008 for the tropics.


Ike,

was kinda concerned yesterday when my NWS forecast low temps were upped a couple degrees.
Indicated to me that they didn't expect the front and high pressure to be as strong as previously thought.

Now, they've dropped it even lower than forcast at beginning of week. Seems to mean an even stronger front. GFS at 1200 seems to be rethinking the situation. Maybe we don't get the "Bonedog Effect" after all.
136. IKE
Quoting RobDaHood:


Ike,

was kinda concerned yesterday when my NWS forecast low temps were upped a couple degrees.
Indicated to me that they didn't expect the front and high pressure to be as strong as previously thought.

Now, they've dropped it even lower than forcast at beginning of week. Seems to mean an even stronger front. GFS at 1200 seems to be rethinking the situation. Maybe we don't get the "Bonedog Effect" after all.


Where do you live?
Quoting IKE:


Where do you live?


Highland Co, central FL about even with Sarasota in the center of state.
Forcast low Sunday night 59 degrees
Afternoon to all of you slow bloggers. I was wondering if maybe I took the people off "Ignore" it would speed things up? But nah, they all only seem to pop up out of their troll holes whenever things are heated up in the tropics.
Fall is here !

img src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/c/cycloone/123.jpg" width="700" height="500" alt
tropictraveler- who are you refering to?
Oh, and also, where would we all be without Surfmom? I always like the glimpses into life with the horses and family.
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Oh, and also, where would we all be without Surfmom? I always like the glimpses into life with the horses and family.


She's a major sweetheart and adds way more to this community than she knows!
Mostly I only put people on ignore when they are insulting and offensive to other people on the blog. I like the feature that I can silently not have to read their bad mannered posts any more. I like all the people who have lively arguments - think that is what the blog is for.
142- I think we'd be a lot less entertained... Stories of hers are interesting. *has been lurking some*

Even if I wish there was something random in the tropics not hitting anyone to talk about.
haven't seen much troll action here recently; was afraid you were referring to my video.
No way Aquak9. When I started hanging out here I really hated to use that ignore button, but now if people are ugly to others I go ahead and use it. It seems like that type of stuff only really comes out when things are really busy and the blog is flying along. I think they drop in and strike and leave again. Wonder if they have a list of dozens of blogs so they can wreck havoc all over. Ah, but I'm babbling... Actually I'm taking a tea and Wunderground break. I'm working disaster relief and this is day six in a row. Get off tomorrow for some relaxing. It's been a very long year for those in my line of work.
New Tropical Storm Twenty-Three in the West Pacific, looks like it'll become extratropical soon but at least there's something.. To almost talk about.
147. TropicTraveler

Yes, they usually show up when a hurricane is declared. Also most active between the hours of 3pm and midnight. I've only got 3 on my list cause usually when they're around I bite my tongue and go do something else.

On the bright side, you will never know how many people all over the country truly appreciate those in "your line of work". Thank you so much for all the long hours and dedication. Enjoy your break.
Yes, thank you tropictraveler, it really is great how you help people like that. I have a huge amount of respect for anyone who does a job like yours.
"Invest 1" According to the NHC Site
151- I'd be a little more worried about that one but it seems to be about to run into the Yucatan, unless I'm seeing it wrong...

And I have to head off to eat dinner so.. I'll be back later and I'll hope things are a little more lively then.
yes thanks to all who work hard- hubby doing another portlight drive next week...I may not post here much but believe me I'm right in the middle of it.
Thanks Makoto and RobDaHood - but lots of people are doing what I'm doing. I'm retired and it lets me use all that stuff I learned in my younger years. When my grandson gripes about how hard he works I tell him about our 7 day weeks 12 hour days for a month or so after a storm strikes. He gets real quiet (I'm 68 and a lot of my co-workers are in their 70's). I tell him I only do it so I can set an example of how to age gracefully. (grin)
Bye for a while - break is definitely over.
fall is not here in extreme swfl, or in the next 10 days.....lowest temps will be lows in the upper 60's to lower 70's, highs still in the mid to upper 80's, close to 90 on somedays
Just got on and the blob in the W Caribbean sure looks interesting. Is this what the models have been referring to in the W Caribbean in the next week??
cybrteddy, that would look like an invest
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Thanks Makoto and RobDaHood - but lots of people are doing what I'm doing. I'm retired and it lets me use all that stuff I learned in my younger years. When my grandson gripes about how hard he works I tell him about our 7 day weeks 12 hour days for a month or so after a storm strikes. He gets real quiet (I'm 68 and a lot of my co-workers are in their 70's). I tell him I only do it so I can set an example of how to age gracefully. (grin)



That was in 3 feet of snow and up hill both ways, right?(kidding)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
"Invest 1" According to the NHC Site


CYBR! Omfg...

WILMA 2!....Its right were.... ****!
Mine
Arthur 1%
Bertha 1%
Cristobal 0%
Dolly 15%
Eduard 2%
Fay 40%
Gustav 90%
Hanna 80%
Ike 100%
Josephine 0%
Kyle 1%
Laura 0%
Marco 1%
Nana 0%
Omar 35%
Quoting sammywammybamy:


CYBR! Omfg...

WILMA 2!....Its right were.... ****!


take a look at my Avatar to know were Wilma formed.
My avatar is Pre-Wilma and then TD 24.
Geez. Leave for a while and an invest. Getting organized. Where's cchs when you need him for the visual, but there seems to be banding starting to me.

Maybe around 18.6N/85.5W?

And, does anyone know why invest 1?

Do they do that just to get a floater on w/o it being official because no one of authority (obviously includes Navy) is available to call it?

Or, maybe NHC sees something Navy does not and won't give it a 90 number (I forget where we are) until Navy calls it?

Just curious. Have never seen that before. Has anyone else?
Anyone know how ENSO neutral conditions effect hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin? I'm looking for a link, article, or something I can quote in a paper. Thanks.
-Alicia
area of interest
87.3w/19.2n
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
area of interest
87.3w/19.2n


I like you're coordinates better for my sake. :)

Yes, SE FL.
167. Enola
#128 Aquak9
That was a pretty funny vid, Aqua. Here's one for you:

INVEST 1
Yes, keeper. Any ideas on why 1 and not a 90?
I know, I know, I need to get back to my list.

So, please has anyone ever seen an invest 1 before?

Do they not give a 90 until Navy calls it?

Answer to the first would be more appreciated... yes or no.
Quoting Seastep:
Yes, keeper. Any ideas on why 1 and not a 90?


Their 9 key is broken
Quoting RobDaHood:


Highland Co, central FL about even with Sarasota in the center of state.


Not a whole lot out there. Very peaceful. My best friend lives in Lorida. Beautiful lake country! You guys have seen your share of weather as storms track inland.
not sure maybe for floater purposes i have seen it before normally before official status the next num is 91L i think this is the 31st invest in order for season
So, please has anyone ever seen an invest 1 before?

Yes, however, they will probably label it 91L once it persists for a longer period of time.
looks like somethiing is getting cranked up near the yucatan sw florida watch out
Quoting weatherblog:
So, please has anyone ever seen an invest 1 before?

Yes, however, they will probably label it 91L once it persists for a longer period of time.
24 hrs i think so this time tomorrow if it warrants it will be 91l unless we get some good dev between now and start of dmax at 2 in the morning
i thought the dry season in south florida had begun but if this heads our way its going to be delayed and we don't need any more water in the everglades we will have a major animal die off because of water levels


Looks like another strong cold front heading for NOLA by next weekend. Sea temps are cooling alot here in NOLA down to 77 and in the central GOMEX 82...by months end we should see them down to 73 close to NOLA and 78 in the central GOMEX.



Steering set up based on this map if any storm were to form off the Yuctan:

It looks like it would move straight across Cuba effect the Bahamas then head out to the grave yard.
Thanks all!

**grumbles** procrastination over.
Quoting cmackla:


Looks like another strong cold front heading for NOLA by next weekend. Sea temps are cooling alot here in NOLA down to 77 and in the central GOMEX 82...by months end we should see them down to 73 close to NOLA and 78 in the central GOMEX.



Steering set up based on this map if any storm were to form off the Yuctan:

It looks like it would move straight across Cuba effect the Bahamas then head out to the grave yard.


Agree! Not a FL storm if develops!
Quoting antonio28:


Agree! Not a FL storm if develops!


Storms that form in the West Caribbean usually tend to hit Florida in October.
Wilma
Mitch
Loads other.
any ideas on this new invest will it develop or not can we get a complete analysis
If it lasts long enough it should be 91... Is it still moving toward the Yucatan like what I thought I saw earlier? I've been gone for a few hours and apparently missed something.

Note: If Ike doesn't get retired I'd be shocked, it even gave major problems this far inland.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Storms that form in the West Caribbean usually tend to hit Florida in October.
Wilma
Mitch
Loads other.


Cyber thats true but first of all I doubt development of this one, things will be a lot interesting north of Panama in 48-72, model guidance told me that right now.
Evening folks,
(Charleston, SC) 61.2°F /16.2°C damp, looking forward to the sun tomorrow.

Last night as I was driving home, I noticed a waning gibbous moon, some high clouds and lower clouds moving across the face of the moon. It gave the illusion that clouds were both in front and behind of the moon. Kinda neat.

Regarding where storms forming in W.Carib go - this year has not been typical (as evidenced by Omar)- so any suppositions based on prior years, may not apply. However, for those of you who have not seen this (and for what it is worth):



Seeing this I sure hope nothing develops for South Florida's sake. You never know the way this year's gone..

And replying the Charleston weather, I have mine which is.. A big change for sure.
Dayton, OH: 48 degrees, Partly Cloudy... they're predicting 33, the cold front's really made a u-turn here, maybe that'll help the east coast too.
186. Makoto1 Sounds like winter to me. How cold will it get in Dayton, during the winter?
187- Eh, winter is averaging highs around 35, lows near 20... Though it's not rare to dip below zero in the morning. Last few years we've had wind chills get to 20 and 30 below.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Storms that form in the West Caribbean usually tend to hit Florida in October.
Wilma
Mitch
Loads other.


116 storms to be exact according to Wikipedia.
Quoting KendallHurricane:
i thought the dry season in south florida had begun but if this heads our way its going to be delayed and we don't need any more water in the everglades we will have a major animal die off because of water levels


I came across the Alley yesterday and I was amazed at how high the water levels were. I haven't seen them that high in a few years.
Quoting AWeatherLover:
Anyone know how ENSO neutral conditions effect hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin? I'm looking for a link, article, or something I can quote in a paper. Thanks.
-Alicia


It should be noted that while the CPC says "ENSO neutral conditions are present, expected to go through 2009, etc...", they are only really talking about the ocean; if you look at the atmosphere, it says La Nina still; in fact, take a look at the SOI:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Nearly as high as it was during the peak earliest this year (SOI indicates atmospheric state of ENSO; it is the atmosphere that actually effects the weather elsewhere regardless of what the ocean is doing).

I also suspect that the CPC will be saying different soon based on trends (cooling at the surface and below the surface, CFS forecasts a definite La Nina over the winter).
RE 188. Makoto1 The coldest it that I can ever remember here, was a Low of 11F. That kind of cold causes all sorts of problems, for one thing our water mains are not very deep. Cannot imagine 0 degrees.

The strangest winter weather was the freak snow storm December 89 (same year as Hurricane Hugo).
We actually had snow drifts!

RE:181. CybrTeddy and 189. hurricanemaniac123 -
Your information confirms the October Storms Graphic. Hopefully we will not have to watch it too much longer.

192- Sounds like the blizzard back in March... 17 inches of snow, 35 mph winds, 4 foot drifts... All of which melted in five days. It's amazing the weather here.

116 storms? Wow, that's a little scary to think about, especially with something sitting off the Yucatan.
you know its bad really bad when they dont have the devilrays baseball game technical difficuties? happy weather
wow 4 areas!- good evening all
only #2 has a chance the season is beginning to wind down
Quoting leftovers:
you know its bad really bad when they dont have the devilrays baseball game technical difficuties? happy weather


I thought maybe I was blacked out or something.
Anybody notice that the NHC still shows Omar as a tropical storm? Usually they remove them or show an "L" when they dissipate, or circled like the other areas (the last one they did with Josephine and Nana):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Anybody notice that the NHC still shows Omar as a tropical storm? Usually they remove them or show an "L" when they dissipate, or circled like the other areas:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


Last advisory was at 11. Usually that's it and they take it off soon after.
199- Really? It's a yellow circle and I'm looking at it right now...
Quoting Makoto1:
192- Sounds like the blizzard back in March... 17 inches of snow, 35 mph winds, 4 foot drifts... All of which melted in five days. It's amazing the weather here.

116 storms? Wow, that's a little scary to think about, especially with something sitting off the Yucatan.

Yikes! What we had was nothing like that. It started snowing just before Christmas and by Christmas the snow covered all the debris still around from Hugo. It was like a gift from heaven. No strong winds, and perhaps what to me was a drift would be not even noticed by you. I would not like to live in the snow, but was very glad for it that year.
Generally our winters are mild - about 6 weeks long. When it gets anywhere close to freezing (usually the low in the night) we have 'winter storm warnings' - "bring in your pets and plants, check on the elderly etc."
You never want to get on the road with us when it snows... we have no idea what we are doing.
No one can beat us when it comes to driving through water, though.
Quoting Makoto1:
199- Really? It's a yellow circle and I'm looking at it right now...


Well, they just fixed it.
202- Ouch. Hurricane damage and snow can't be easy though... I'll have that to a lesser extent this year though, Ike did quite a bit to us. We're the other way, we never seem to get flooded here but snow is common.

203- Okay... The NHC does that kind of thing, sometimes a wide delay on updating those graphics. X_x
the baseball game is webcast mlb.com still nothing on tbs
I am still seeing 4 circles. NHC
only area which could dev is nw carib all other areas have diminsh any likly hood of developement at this time
Quoting leftovers:
the baseball game is webcast mlb.com still nothing on tbs


I just got it on TBS. Tied 1-1
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
only area which could dev is nw carib all other areas have diminsh any likly hood of developement at this time

Keeper, I guess we need it to develop a bit more for it to become an invest. We will not have floaters on it till then? Is that correct?
210. Vero1
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1011 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 83W-88W. ANOTHER
1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA
NEAR 17N77W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS...AND IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 72W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N86W. THE BASE OF A
LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W PRODUCING MOSTLY
EASTERLY FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W...AND IS OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA S OF 13N. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Me
percent of retirement

Arthur 0
Bertha 5
Cristobal 2
Dolly 20
Eduard 8
Fay 45
Gustav 85
Hanna 65
Ike 100
Josephine 0
Kyle 10
Laura 0
Marco 0
Nana 0
Omar 50
Have a good evening folks, we will see what does (or does not) develop tomorrow.

Quoting Hurricanejer95:
Me
percent of retirement

Arthur 0
Bertha 5
Cristobal 2
Dolly 20
Eduard 8
Fay 45
Gustav 85
Hanna 65
Ike 100
Josephine 0
Kyle 10
Laura 0
Marco 0
Nana 0
Omar 50


IKE
GUSTAV

and thats it.
Things are so slow I'll play the retirement percentage game too. Post is long because I made short explanations of everything.

Arthur: 5% Weak, but staying over land the whole time. I'm just being nice to the storm for being odd.

Bertha: 10% Broke a lot of July records, but it only brushed by Bermuda.

Cristobal: 0% Never really did much, sat off NC and just moved out to sea.

Dolly: 25% Texas got a lot of rain, did a bit of damage, don't think it's enough for retirement.

Edouard: 5% Only because it hit Texas, though it didn't do much. Not a retired name here.

Fay: 70% Only was a tropical storm, but four US landfalls and flooding in Haiti and Cuba caused deaths, and it was a crazy storm.. I think it will be retired but hard to tell.

Gustav: 85% Made it to category 4, and did damage to Haiti as a category 1, gave problems to Louisiana at landfall but was a little overhyped.

Hanna: 45% A little flooding in Haiti, then rocketed up the east coast of the US, but was more of an annoyance. However, affecting an entire coastline might be enough.

Ike: 100% I can't see how it won't be retired. Houston's still reeling from the hurricane, and as an extratropical storm caused flooding in Illinois and wind damage in Indiana and especially in Ohio.

Josephine: 0% Just a weak storm that stayed out to sea.

Kyle: 15% Before being a storm, it dumped tons of rain on Puerto Rico before bringing minor impacts to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Maine, but not nearly enough impact to retire.

Laura: 0% Same kind of thing as Josephine, just farther north.

Marco: 10% It was interesting how it was small and such, but hitting Mexico as a storm didn't impact nearly enough.

Nana: 0% It was like a copy of Josephine but even weaker.

Omar: 35% This would be way higher if it didn't shoot through the Anegada Passage, which let it only have impacts of a fast-moving tropical storm.
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Keeper, I guess we need it to develop a bit more for it to become an invest. We will not have floaters on it till then? Is that correct?
ssd site has it up as a invest and has it up on floater one centred at 18n/87w at 1009mb
Good evening all! Read back through the comments and noticed that some blogger was needing the graphic that I usually create when we have a tropical disturbance that could develop. Well, I have taken some time analyzing satellite imagery and surface observations and have created such a graphic for those seeking an explanation as to the environmental conditions and current satellite appearance. Enjoy.

Photobucket
ya cchs

wait watch see

42 days remain

Hanna: 45% A little flooding in Haiti, then rocketed up the east coast of the US, but was more of an annoyance. However, affecting an entire coastline might be enough.


Hanna killed 500 People in Haiti and caused horrible flooding, raise the 45% up to 90 and its more accurate.


Gustav: 85% Made it to category 4, and did damage to Haiti as a category 1, gave problems to Louisiana at landfall but was a little overhyped


Try Category 5, and it killed 50 people in Louisiana and caused 18 Billion dollars in damage, will be retired.
o_o I didn't hear 500... I must have missed something... I'll push it up to 75, maybe not quite 90.. And I don't think Gustav made it to 5.. I guess we'll see in the postseason. I could easily be wrong, I'll surely admit that.

And thanks for that graphic, cchsweatherman. Nice to see a viewpoint on it, though I feel kind of dumb for missing that obvious circulation..
Heres my predictions. Seeing today is 'which hurricane will be retired' day.

Arthur 1% Arthur killed 4 people, but did very little damage.

Bertha 5% Bertha got pretty close to Bermuda, caused some damage, but no deaths and light damage.

Cristobal 2% did almost no damage in North Carolina.

Dolly 50% Im not so sure about this one, it caused 2 Billion dollars in damage in Texas, so my bets are on Dolly being retired, but it didn't kill alot of people. My mind, Dolly has a 50/50 chance of being retired.

Edouard 5% Didn't cause alot of damage, killed a few people.

Fay 60% Because Fay did as much deaths as Noel did last year, 100+ and did pretty bad damage to Florida flooding wise.

Gustav 100% For obvious reasons.

Hanna 90% due to the horrific amount of deaths caused by Hanna in Haiti, 500+ Dead.

Ike 100% obviously, 3rd most destructive hurricane ever to hit the United States.

Josephine 0% Wont be retired, period

Kyle 5% Didn't cause a lot of damage in Canada.

Laura 0% Wont be period

Marco 5% Caused very light damage in Mexico, no deaths

Nana 0% No chance.

Omar 40% Although Omar was a Category 4 as it hit, it didn't cause a lot of damage and not a lot of people died.
Quoting Makoto1:
o_o I didn't hear 500... I must have missed something... I'll push it up to 75, maybe not quite 90.. And I don't think Gustav made it to 5.. I guess we'll see in the postseason. I could easily be wrong, I'll surely admit that.

And thanks for that graphic, cchsweatherman. Nice to see a viewpoint on it, though I feel kind of dumb for missing that obvious circulation..


212 MPH Winds recorded in Cuba from many valid stations.
Quoting Makoto1:
o_o I didn't hear 500... I must have missed something... I'll push it up to 75, maybe not quite 90.. And I don't think Gustav made it to 5.. I guess we'll see in the postseason. I could easily be wrong, I'll surely admit that.

And thanks for that graphic, cchsweatherman. Nice to see a viewpoint on it, though I feel kind of dumb for missing that obvious circulation..


Why do you feel dumb? Believe me; that circulation is not obvious. On satellite imagery, you can see only a weak circulation. About the only way that I could analyze that there was a developing low-level circulation was through checking surface observations. They can be quite helpful in analyzing a mess like this disturbance is at this time.

If you ever have any questions, just send me a message and I'll be glad to answer them.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Marco 5% Caused very light damage in Mexico, no deaths


I don't think Marco even deserves a 1% chance; it was basically no more than an average afternoon thunderstorm (in winds, size and duration).
I'm actually just having one of those days I'm making a lot of mistakes in everything, that's why actually. This is the icing on the cake. But seriously, thanks.

212? ... Yeah, this is what I get for being gone for a while, missing numbers like this, though something tells me 212 is too high for sure. Though I'm glad I have you guys around to correct me when I miss something.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ssd site has it up as a invest and has it up on floater one centred at 18n/87w at 1009mb

Help me out here if you please,
ssd site? I checked the navy site (saw Omar and 16). What is the ssd site? Could you provide a link.
Thanking you in advance.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
nice wave coming off the African coast


Link
Quoting stoormfury:
nice wave coming off the African coast


Link

RE:226. Orcasystems
Thanks, Orca
Quoting Makoto1:
I'm actually just having one of those days I'm making a lot of mistakes in everything, that's why actually. This is the icing on the cake. But seriously, thanks.

212? ... Yeah, this is what I get for being gone for a while, missing numbers like this, though something tells me 212 is too high for sure. Though I'm glad I have you guys around to correct me when I miss something.


Should be noted that it was gusts, not sustained winds that were recorded (from what I have seen they were verified and are official, also widely reported). For comparison, Dean had gusts around 200 mph recorded (not sure where, think it was unofficial; storm chaser vs. official weather station, mentioned here).
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Help me out here if you please,
ssd site? I checked the navy site (saw Omar and 16). What is the ssd site? Could you provide a link.
Thanking you in advance.
Link
Is it unusual for strong waves to come off of the African coast this time of year or is it just that they have little chance of developing?
230- Okay, thanks. Not sure what the sustained winds were.. But seeing this it is looking like a 5 after all.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:226. Orcasystems
Thanks, Orca


I am hoping someone answers your previous question.. I want to know the answer also.. ssd?


Found it
Just showing the floater image.. not designated an Invest.
Throughout the day, many bloggers have been reflecting back on this very unique hurricane season and trying to decide which storms will get their names retired. Well, I decided that I would give my opinion on the matter.

Going back through all the storms, particularly their impacts, I believe there should be four names retired after hurricane season.

Tropical Storm Fay was the first tropical cyclone to begin the flooding nightmare in Hispanola. Many lost their lives and/or livelihood this season and Fay started it. When traveling over Florida, it practically stalled punishing the state with very heavy rainfall that created dangerous flooding, but also eliminated the water shortage in Lake Okeechobee.

Hurricane Gustav slammed ashore Western Cuba with reported 212 mph wind gusts that created significant destruction in the area. Moving northward, it moved ashore in Southwestern Louisiana where it forced mass evacuations in New Orleans. Although no levees failed, it did do significant damage at landfall and produced several tornadoes. Just based upon the impacts on Western Cuba alone, this should be retired. I would be remiss if I forgot that this became the second consecutive storm to flood Hispanola, claiming more lives and more structures.

Hurricane Hanna, although never making landfall over the island, continued the nightmare flooding problems in Hispanola as the southern side of the system stalled over the island bringing constant heavy rainfall over a 36 hour period. By this time, food and health became a major issue for the island. Over 400 people lost their lives due to the deadly landslides that had occured as a result of the near 20-inch rainfall totals.

Last, but not least, Hurricane Ike. Ike became the second largest storm in Atlantic basin history (Gilbert was the largest back in 1986). Unlike many storms this year, its impacts were widespread and deadly. After demolishing the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as Grand Inagua Island, it traversed all Cuba, battering the island with damaging hurricane force winds and seemingly neverending rainfall. If my memory serves me correct, this is the first storm ever to have traversed the entire island of Cuba. After passing through Cuba, it would explode to consume the entire Gulf of Mexico. Several hours before landfall in Galveston, storm surge had already enveloped whole towns and cities as Ike carried an unprecedented storm surge. Making landfall, it wreaked havoc from Central Texas to the Upper Midwest with deadly tornadoes, strong winds, and flooding rainfall. There are still over 400 people missing in the Galveston area. This storm will forever be remembered by those on the Texas Gulf Coast.
RE:231. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
RE:234. Orcasystems

Thank ya very much, folks
I now have it book-marked
I went to the ssd page but I am still not seeing anything anywhere that states an invest. Is it just me?

Never mind. Thanks Orca!
ssd= satellite services division
click my link at the top fgloaters you see invest click it will show u where
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:231. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
RE:234. Orcasystems

Thank ya very much, folks
I now have it book-marked


Scarier part of this... we are the two Canucks on here
Quoting Orcasystems:


Scarier part of this... we are the two Canucks on here


Well this Floridian will listen to what you two Canucks have to say any day of the week regarding tropical weather.
about an hour ago it was invest 1 now its invest maybe used just to get a floater on it if it becomes official it will become inv/91L
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Heres my predictions. Seeing today is 'which hurricane will be retired' day.

Arthur 1% Arthur killed 4 people, but did very little damage.

Bertha 5% Bertha got pretty close to Bermuda, caused some damage, but no deaths and light damage.

Cristobal 2% did almost no damage in North Carolina.

Dolly 50% Im not so sure about this one, it caused 2 Billion dollars in damage in Texas, so my bets are on Dolly being retired, but it didn't kill alot of people. My mind, Dolly has a 50/50 chance of being retired.

Edouard 5% Didn't cause alot of damage, killed a few people.

Fay 60% Because Fay did as much deaths as Noel did last year, 100+ and did pretty bad damage to Florida flooding wise.

Gustav 100% For obvious reasons.

Hanna 90% due to the horrific amount of deaths caused by Hanna in Haiti, 500+ Dead.

Ike 100% obviously, 3rd most destructive hurricane ever to hit the United States.

Josephine 0% Wont be retired, period

Kyle 5% Didn't cause a lot of damage in Canada.

Laura 0% Wont be period

Marco 5% Caused very light damage in Mexico, no deaths

Nana 0% No chance.

Omar 40% Although Omar was a Category 4 as it hit, it didn't cause a lot of damage and not a lot of people died.


I agree. There is without a doubt a 100% chance Gustav and Ike will be retired. Most likely Hanna too, but there is also a small chance Fay and/or Omar.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
click my link at the top fgloaters you see invest click it will show u where


I agree that is where the next systems is coming from, and they have it marked as a invest.. but not yet "designated" as an invest
Quoting CapeObserver:
Is it unusual for strong waves to come off of the African coast this time of year or is it just that they have little chance of developing?


Both, but we said that too with Bertha in early July.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
about an hour ago it was invest 1 now its invest maybe used just to get a floater on it if it becomes official it will become inv/91L


The models have it going into the GOM and then maybe off to Florida
Quoting CapeObserver:


Well this Floridian will listen to what you two Canucks have to say any day of the week regarding tropical weather.

I Agree
244- I really agree that Gustav will be retired.. I wish I trusted myself enough to give it that 100%.

And just for the heck of it, I'll update you guys on here.. 10pm, 44.8 F, 7.1 C. Seriously strong cold front...
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Last, but not least, Hurricane Ike. Ike became the second largest storm in Atlantic basin history (Gilbert was the largest back in 1986).


Actually, Ike was the largest, I remember Dr. Masters posting about it (Wikipedia even quoted him as well):

At one point, the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds were 550 and 240 miles (885 and 390 km), respectively, making Ike the most massive Atlantic hurricane recorded.

(not the largest tropical storm however, that belongs to Olga in 2001 which had winds 690 miles from the center as a subtropical storm).
Quoting Orcasystems:


The models have it going into the GOM and then maybe off to Florida


They've been pretty insistant on this for a while. Let's just hope nothing gets really cranking. I can handle a little wind and rain but I really am not in the mood for much more than that.
keh heres another site i use
Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


The models have it going into the GOM and then maybe off to Florida
waiting on latest global models at midnight see if its still there current shows rain rate of 100+mm by mid week
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
keh heres another site i use
Link


And here is one of my Favourite pages.. two actually

Page 1
Page 2

I look at both of these about twice a day
255. 7544
still shows the fla strom and a bit more south after the left turn

Link
here are my 4 names that may be retirement

Gustav 100% ch Gustav is responsible for 138 deaths and up to $18 billion in damage

IKE 100% ch

Omar 4% ch

Hanna 100% ch At least 537 deaths have been blamed on Hanna, primarily in Haiti.








Quoting Tazmanian:
here are my 4 names that may be retirement

Gustav 100% ch Gustav is responsible for 138 deaths and up to $18 billion in damage

IKE 100% ch

Omar 4% ch

Hanna 100% ch At least 537 deaths have been blamed on Hanna, primarily in Haiti.










I agree with two out of those
Orcasystems and wish one of those two would they be??
Quoting Orcasystems:


I agree with two out of those
which ones?
Thanks Keeper
Thanks Orca

As dear old Dad used to tell me...It just goes to show, if you are not careful, you will learn something new everyday

Tomorrow, I will work on organizing these bookmarks. I very much appreciate the help.
Will be a long while (if ever) before I can interpret, but if I am finding that as I look and listening some of it is beginning to make sense. ***wide grin***
the fact that Hanna was a tropical storm does not bode well for her being retired
gustav 100%
ike 100%
everything else 0%
keh i also use a pay site

www.weathertap.com

i beleive if you go there sign up you get a free 30 day trial if you want the service its like 6.95 a month up to the minute sat images with lotsa of different views wv wvenh ir irenh vis high res vis for local and level 2 radar in high resolution also lots more to much to list if anything try 30 day free trial
263. KBH
I see we have 2 more invest in the carib. The is an area of cloud that is south of B'dos but not an invest. Some rather rather strong winds were about this afternoon while rains followed tonight, does anyone think this area is of concern?
Quoting weatherman113:
which ones?


Ike, and Gustav
I personally would pick Hanna over Gustav, but thats not how the system works.
Tampa Spin is going crazy.. 2-2 now.... Marlins fan here so I'll root on the blog for him... got a feeling if they win he'll not be blogging until tomorrow afternoon...
RE:262. KEEPEROFTHEGATE

Thank you. Will check it out.
Go Sox
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Tampa Spin is going crazy.. 2-2 now.... Marlins fan here so I'll root on the blog for him... got a feeling if they win he'll not be blogging until tomorrow afternoon...


I know, I am secretly rooting for Boston.. just to see if they can actually drive Tim nuts.
Quoting KBH:
I see we have 2 more invest in the carib. The is an area of cloud that is south of B'dos but not an invest. Some rather rather strong winds were about this afternoon while rains followed tonight, does anyone think this area is of concern?
area pass you today is disapating on wv imagery at the moment as it moves into trinny and extreme se carib at the moment dosen't look like much
Quoting hurricanealley:
Go Sox


If you're going to go off topic have the decency to post a score.
Just in case anyone missed it or needed it, I have created a graphic with my personal analysis on our new tropical disturbance that is trying to develop in the Northwest Caribbean.

Photobucket
3-2 boston
ok... now he's not happy.... by the way did I say I was rooting for the sox....lol
Bos 3 Tb 2
Wish I could have seen a video of Tim during the last game when they lost a 7-0 lead.. I bet it was priceless
Quoting hurricanealley:
Bos 3 Tb 2


woohoo
ok Orcasystems
LOL....nothing any red sox fan hasn't felt before ... that is until 2004...
RE:271. cchsweatherman
Thanks cchs - I always appreciate your graphics
Quoting 954FtLCane:
LOL....nothing any red sox fan hasn't felt before ... that is until 2004...


Truer words were never spoken. Growing up it was an embarrassment to be a Red Sox fan.
Where is tim? btw
oh yeah sorry this is a weather blog....um there's a thingy spinning out there.....
wow what a homer by the captain...
and oh yeah it looks like a front will push through s fla tomorrow...
Phillies vs either team who wins?
Quoting hurricanealley:
Where is tim? btw


My guess... at the game..cursing the Rays coach for putting in the pitcher who lost the last game
Quoting 954FtLCane:
oh yeah sorry this is a weather blog....um there's a thingy spinning out there.....
wow what a homer by the captain...
and oh yeah it looks like a front will push through s fla tomorrow...
Phillies vs either team who wins?


Front is getting ready to push through here within the next hour. It is absolutely gorgeous outside tonight. Can't wait until tomorrow, stiff breeze and lots of sun. Nice and cool.
tim is either at the game or clinging to a beer in front of the big screen....i know when the Marlins were in this spot in '97 & '03 the rest of the world stopped down here
wooooo 4-2 bos
NOW, Tim is ballistic somewhere
can you say game 7.... oh and yeah there's a spinny thingy down in that sw carribean that I need to mention to make sure I'm not bumped of blocked off of this site
Anyone going to the World Baseball Classic?
Anyone look at the two latest CMC runs
the 12Z and 00Z, both showing the system in the GOM..and it looks like it is going to Tampa also
Quoting 954FtLCane:
the fact that Hanna was a tropical storm does not bode well for her being retired
gustav 100%
ike 100%
everything else 0%


Huh? Hanna was an 80 MPH Category 1 Hurricane.
Quoting hurricanealley:
Bos 3 Tb 2


Thx, you posted that horriffic score and my cable went out.
yes some of the games will be held down here (Miami) during the 2nd round
Better tell Surfmom to raise the Tampa shields.
291, I meant Hanna was a TS when the deaths were caused ... not the effects later on when it went north and became a cat 1.... it was only a trop storm when it rained and rained off of Haiti
4-2 Boston
Quoting TwoEyedJack2004:


Thx, you posted that horriffic score and my cable went out.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
yes some of the games will be held down here (Miami) during the 2nd round



can't wait to see dolphin stadium crowded again I miss those 03 marlins playoff game
there should be big crowds....not familiar with the schduling bhut it would be crazy if Cuba played vs the PR or DR.. thta tsadium would be a complete zoo..
can't wait to see how baseball will take off if and when the new stadium is built..
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just in case anyone missed it or needed it, I have created a graphic with my personal analysis on our new tropical disturbance that is trying to develop in the Northwest Caribbean.

Photobucket


There he is! (see 163) Thanks cchs. Always appreciated.

Just popped on to check everything out.

Bedtime.
Well, good night everyone. Seems like everyone just wants to talk about the Red Sox and Rays and that very few want to discuss the tropics.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
there should be big crowds....not familiar with the schduling bhut it would be crazy if Cuba played vs the PR or DR.. thta tsadium would be a complete zoo..
can't wait to see how baseball will take off if and when the new stadium is built..


More than any Marlins/Mets game.
300- Good night, I haven't talked much for that reason, not like there's that much to discuss out there...
Goodnight cchsweatherman

Good luck may your team make a good showing, y'all!

I will say good night now as well. Will check in tomorrow to see what develops
I'll bow out too. Have a good night everyone.
Sorry cchs, I greatly appreciate your input when there is something immenent to S FL, scince there isn't, I am distracted. I guess I'll go play cards (and listen for the Rays comeback).
301... I'd imagine it would be more like '03 crowds. The Mets Marlins games drew the biggest crowds we had all year... anyways sorry to bother all of you this is a weather blog please don't place me on your ignore list...I promise to start weather here after the game
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just in case anyone missed it or needed it, I have created a graphic with my personal analysis on our new tropical disturbance that is trying to develop in the Northwest Caribbean.

Photobucket


Thanks CCHS. Nice graphic
Night all
I want to thank all the great bloggers that are on here that have helped me understand the dynamics of tropical weather more than I ever did before. I'll name ORCA and CCHS but there are plenty of others... your dedicated love and knowledge of weather pretty much epitomizes the reason why most of us on here visit. I have no doubt that you will continue to post your knowledge and although I may not alwyas agree with your predictions I will look at your post and take into account the knowledge y'all have to offer.
Thanks and go dolphins..lol
later orca from the centre of the universe

lol
Quoting 954FtLCane:
291, I meant Hanna was a TS when the deaths were caused ... not the effects later on when it went north and became a cat 1.... it was only a trop storm when it rained and rained off of Haiti


Also huh? When Hanna did the deaths it was at peak strength. I think your thinking about last years Noel.
Cybr you are correct....my bad although I don't think a Cat 1 will be retired.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Cybr you are correct....my bad although I don't think a Cat 1 will be retired.


Noel was, Anges was, Stan was, and a couple others. In fact Allison was only a Tropical storm and it was retired.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
291, I meant Hanna was a TS when the deaths were caused ... not the effects later on when it went north and became a cat 1.... it was only a trop storm when it rained and rained off of Haiti


So you're saying that Allison shouldn't have been retired and Billis(West Pacific) shouldn't have been retired either?
Tropical storms can be retired you know. NHC see decides it.
cyber... "Joe the plumber"... I said "Joe the plumber"
I've learned something tonight...I will learn up on storms being retired and make sure what the criteria is before I comment again on the issue.
I literally killed the entire blog....... Sarah Palin is on SNL... Tina Fay is better at being Sarah than Sarah will ever be
Just checked into see if Tim Popped in.. I would assume he is almost suicidal by now
Well' I guess that is it wil O'mar. It could have been worse.T G I W.
Looks like another shot of cold air and trough in the Atlantic blocking cape verd systems .
Maybe the disturbance in the Carrabean will atleast enhance the low pressure slated to drop out of the mid West into the tennesee valley area and cause an eventual nor'easter sometime next mid to late week .
have a good one untill we post again .see ya
Dew
For some reason, there's no invest up on the navy site.
Sorry Tim
Boston wins 4-2
this isnt the baseball blog, please lets talk about the tropics, theres a lot going on, theres four areas of interest in the atlantic and i think my opinion theres at least two tropical storms in the atlantic this week we need to keep an eye on this, especially in the carribean, something could spin up and make a run at florida, remember wilma, this season isnt over not by a long shot
TheSavant- I remembered Wilma and Andrew, actually I live in So. Fla. I also know that just mentioning baseball, specially in regards to someone that provides vast information on systems, as Tampaspin does, is ok. Worry about the bashing and insults.

~Hope you have a wonderful evening and that the season ends peacefully.
Tropical Cyclone Warning #4 (0300z 19OCT)
===============================================

At 12:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 25.9N 148.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 33.9N 149.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
yeah!

after 3 days I finally got my electricity restored. Omar really made my life miserable by taking away my electricity andinternet. the people of St. Croix are surviving and helping each other since the pasing of Omar. Kuddous!

Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
For some reason, there's no invest up on the navy site.

there probably alsleep
looks like something dev along east coast offshore s/n caroliner
our area of interest building some convection as well in nw carib
latest gobal models continue to show development of current area over nw carib moving n towards gom and se gulf coasts and being drawn nne ward after that in a low from the plains that drops se over west gom then tracks ne up over spine towards lower grt lakes by end of the week based upon current observations sat imagest invest located in w cen carib at 86.9n/18.2nremains stationary till mon then slow drift n after that
329. sjm45
has anyone noticed there is a tropical storm in the Indian Ocean, just north east of Mozambique? There is also an area of disturbance near The Yemen. I am not sure that I have ever seen tropical storms in those areas before. Does anyone know if it is a terribly rare occurance, or have I just not noticed in the past?
330. 7544
gem still calls for fla strom also

Quoting 7544:
gem still calls for fla strom also


?? what??
332. 7544
gfsx

Link


gem
Link
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #5
16:00 PM JST October 19 2008
==============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon East Of Ogasawara-shoto

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bavi (1000 hPa) located at 26.6N 148.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-force winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 34.7N 150.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 40.6N 158.2E - EXTRATROPICAL
Cool water vapor loop shows a giant brown gorilla about to take a bite out of N. Carolina!

Loop
morning
impressive wave exiting african coast, and very low latitude
Quoting RobDaHood:
Cool water vapor loop shows a giant brown gorilla about to take a bite out of N. Carolina!

Loop


Gorilla is gone, North Carolina still there. No worries...Talking to myself so ... Naptime.
area of convection is building slowly ,with some cyclonic turning near 12.5n 49w. the area is moving wnw in tandem with an upper level trough to it's west. the low could be responsible for the increase convection in the vicinity of that area
Good morning we have an invest in NW Caribbean again. Although probably talking to myself as well. LOL.
Good morning... just a quick drop before heading out... hope everyone is doing ok.

There has been quite a bit of discrepancies in the models and as Doc stated some models are forecasting a bit higher shear than others which would account for these. 00Z CMC being the strongest with a Hurricane developing (less shear) and 06Z/00Z GFS/ECMWF a bit higher shear environment with a more open type wave (surge of moisture) accross the area and 06Z NOGAPS lying in between with a closed system but yet sheared.

We shall see if the disturb area E of Belize will hold its ground. Although I do see the front that just came across CFL/SCFL stalling soon and providing some additional focus for a SFC low development and or intensification... but remains to be seen, but we'll know this upcoming week.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Good morning we have an invest in NW Caribbean again. Although probably talking to myself as well. LOL.


Good Mornig, I think the season is over for the cont.US. That lettle yellow circle was there, then gonr, now back. Hmmmmm.......

More Coffee
last night the twc guy not lyons said the nw carib. invest will affect fl at the end of the week have a great day
342. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:


Good Mornig, I think the season is over for the cont.US. That lettle yellow circle was there, then gonr, now back. Hmmmmm.......

More Coffee


This system in the Caribbean will eventually get drawn toward the USA....whether it's the gulf coast...the gulf coast as a sheared out system...or peninsula Florida remains to be seen, but I am almost certain that moisture and maybe a tropical system will get drawn toward the USA.
Quoting Autistic2:


Good Mornig, I think the season is over for the cont.US. That lettle yellow circle was there, then gonr, now back. Hmmmmm.......

More Coffee
I do hope you are right abut the season being over for us. Best thing for all if the front currently diving down would whisk this blob out to sea and be done with it.
Hey everyone.

Seems I haven't missed a great deal. Which can't be a bad thing overall.
345. unf97
Good morning everyone. I am waking up and enjoying an absolutely crisp, cool autumn morning here in NW Jax. Took a walk outside to get the morning paper and checked the thermometer with a reading of 50 degrees. We will have beautiful weather for most of this week until about late Thursday into the weekend. The NW Caribbean has already begun to get cranked as a low pressure area just off the Yucatan coast is developing. This system looks to meander slowly before it moves N-N/NE into the SE GOM late this week as the models have indicated. This system will ruin my weather here next weekend for sure. It will be interesting how this system evolves. Next all hope that this system doesn't become another Wilma type storm. I hope it only develops into a minimal topical storm at best. Also, I noticed another interesting wave emerging off the coast of South America in the extereme Southern Caribbean. As expected this time of year, the Caribbean is brewing for sure.
346. IKE
06Z NOGAPS...Link


00Z CMC...Link
Quoting IKE:


This system in the Caribbean will eventually get drawn toward the USA....whether it's the gulf coast...the gulf coast as a sheared out system...or peninsula Florida remains to be seen, but I am almost certain that moisture and maybe a tropical system will get drawn toward the USA.
3 Cheers for shear! :) None of my model links have picked up this invest yet may ba a good thing.
348. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:
3 Cheers for shear! :) None of my model links have picked up this invest yet may ba a good thing.


See post 346.
349. IKE
Got down to 50.4 degrees at my house in the Florida panhandle.
Quoting IKE:


This system in the Caribbean will eventually get drawn toward the USA....whether it's the gulf coast...the gulf coast as a sheared out system...or peninsula Florida remains to be seen, but I am almost certain that moisture and maybe a tropical system will get drawn toward the USA.


Local mets in Fort Lauderdale are saying we should be getting some decent rains toward the end of the week. I hope that is all we get. I am heading to Pittsburgh for the Steelers vs. Giants next weekend. Don't need a trip spoiler. Had to cancel my last trip up there because Ike was supposed to be heading our way.
Quoting IKE:


See post 346.
I know i saw that. Just hoping wont get too bad. Its a crisp 54 here which is nice for most of us. Just hope it doesnt get any colder for those still in the tents. We not used to this down here. :)
oh...good morning all. That was very rude of me to post before saying good morning. sorry.
Morning Ike and Homeless.
ITS RAINING>
Have a lot to do, so see you all later.
Have a great Sunday, everyone...
Quoting pottery:
Morning Ike and Homeless.
ITS RAINING>
Have a lot to do, so see you all later.
Have a great Sunday, everyone...
Good morning. And a great day to you as well. :)
355. IKE
Long-range from Tampa.....

"Long term (tuesday night-saturday)...surface high pressure along the middle
Atlantic coast will extend across west central and southwest Florida
Wednesday. Easterly flow will persist across the region with dry
mild conditions. A frontal boundary across the Florida Straits will
begin to lift slowly north Thursday with increasing moisture and a
slight chance of showers mainly over southwest Florida. Next l/west
trough digging over the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday night and
Friday will help pull this front northward with possible development
of a weak surface low along the front.
Increasing chance of showers
across the entire forecast area as deep layer moisture advects over the
region. Surface high pressure over the plains will push southeast
Saturday with drier slightly cooler air advecting over the region.
Although uncertainty on timing remains with evolution of this system
and advection of moisture across west central Florida...long range
models are coming into better agreement on this solution."
I'm guessing that the yucatan disturbance (91L?) will become orange alert today. It has warm ssts, okay convection, etc.
Good morning to everyone else as well. ( not very polite, that exclusive first good morning. But I just woke up.)
Quoting pottery:
Morning Ike and Homeless.
ITS RAINING>
Have a lot to do, so see you all later.
Have a great Sunday, everyone...


Hey Pottery.

Raining here too! Alas, that is no anomaly...
Sounds normal, Cotillion.
OK, I'm out.
Drank too much very good Aussie red wine last night. Moving in super-slow-mo today.
Nice day for gardening here. Huh.
g'morning ike, homeless, cotillin, everyone else...

big change of subject here- 7.1 offa the eastern coast of New zealand!! Anyone got any links to tsunami warnings? it was only 26 miles deep, very near Tonga.

Thanks everyone (if I'm not on everyone's iggy list!)
361. IKE
good morning every-one~~~~~~~

:)))))
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
I'm guessing that the yucatan disturbance (91L?) will become orange alert today. It has warm ssts, okay convection, etc.
Yes the NHC has it listed as an invest on satellite page already but no number. And it looks like its on its way especially if it just sits and spins before getting picked up.
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning ike, homeless, cotillin, everyone else...

big change of subject here- 7.1 offa the eastern coast of New zealand!! Anyone got any links to tsunami warnings? it was only 26 miles deep, very near Tonga.

Thanks everyone (if I'm not on everyone's iggy list!)


Link
Good Morning everyone!!! :)
thanks cotillion. Text says no threat due to historic input? ok, still seems like a 7.1 that shallow would create something.
Instead of alink, here is the message:

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
722 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2008

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0711 PM HST 18 OCT 2008
COORDINATES - 21.9 SOUTH 173.5 WEST
LOCATION - TONGA ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.0 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

RE:363. Cotillion - Great thoughts and all of that ;)

Good morning this side of the pond, afternoon Cotillion

Darn chilly this morning ( 53.9°F / 12.2°C )

thanks KEH.

On a second reading, this report only applies to us, basicly CONUS, hawaii, and british columbia.
No real report from the area.

Hopefully everything's ok over thee.
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0521Z 19 OCT 2008

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0511Z 19 OCT 2008
COORDINATES - 21.9 SOUTH 173.5 WEST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - TONGA ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.0

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL
TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES
IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
Quoting pottery:
Sounds normal, Cotillion.
OK, I'm out.
Drank too much very good Aussie red wine last night. Moving in super-slow-mo today.
Nice day for gardening here. Huh.
good morning everyone, yes my favorite aussie whine is, O no we are out of beer, LOL, really cool here in key west this morning a nice 77 with nne wind 14 gusting to 19
aquak9 - I don't quite understand why some earthquakes create tsunami's and other's don't either.

Although based on reading here and a USGS, it apparently it has to do with the type of earthquake as well as the depth underground. There also seems to be a factor of how the ocean floor is shaped... I bet some sort of underwater wave was formed, just not the right type/shape/size/strength to cause a "Tsunami".


Can you tell the tropics are quiet?
Good Morning all, was a little chill here down to 56 Zephyrhills Florida
Quoting keywestbrat:
good morning everyone, yes my favorite aussie whine is, O no we are out of beer, LOL, really cool here in key west this morning a nice 77 with nne wind 14 gusting to 19
LOL Good morning.
360. aquak9
This is rather interesting, thanks for bringing it to our attention
The above was NOAA

Here is ITIC (International Tsunami Information Center)
For warnings it links to NOAA, but has other information as well.
Quoting Dakster:
Instead of alink, here is the message:

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
722 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2008

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0711 PM HST 18 OCT 2008
COORDINATES - 21.9 SOUTH 173.5 WEST
LOCATION - TONGA ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.0 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.



Only good news Ive ever seen this year about Natural Disasters is whats in bold.
Quoting keywestbrat:
good morning everyone, yes my favorite aussie whine is, O no we are out of beer, LOL, really cool here in key west this morning a nice 77 with nne wind 14 gusting to 19


Aussie? Heck I hear that from my neighbors across the street here in Florida.
G'morning Dak as well.

I always hit every link in order when I wake up: local NOAA, NHC, SPC, SFWMD (if there's any invests) and then I look at StormyDee's old blog.

I'll post a link- too bad she's not here anymore, Dak there's some excellent links here about seismic activity worldwide.
379. IKE
Extended discussion from Miami,FL....

"The front is expected to become diffuse as
it propagates south over the peninsula today and should likely
enter the Florida Straits tonight and then become somewhat
stationary into Monday. Some isolated showers may be expected
across the East Coast metropolitan areas as the winds increase across the
Atlantic waters this morning and may bring some moisture and
showers from time to time during the day.


For the extended forecast...there continues to be some uncertainty
about the potential for convection beginning Wednesday and
possibly lasting into next weekend. The last guidance suite
continues to suggest that a broad area of low pressure is forecast
to develop in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula by
Wednesday...
which would allow for the low level flow to bring low
level moisture across the region with increasing chances of
convection through late in the week. For now will continue with
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for this
period and will begin to fine tune as time GOES on."

aqua thanks for the heads up about the tsunami warning, guess my rellies in oz, can stay in bed, last time I called them a got them up at 3am LOL but nothing happened thank goodness, it's only midnight over there now so it wouldn't have been to bad
This is a link to StormyDee's blog. She's not here anymore but her blog is still updating. The seismo shown here is in Orlando, Florida, but if you scroll down the page, there's links to seismos worldwide.

Link
382. IKE
I wonder if the convection in the NW Caribbean would be reclassified as TD16 or would it start as invest 91L?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Aussie? Heck I hear that from my neighbors across the street here in Florida.
yes very popular wine that
There seems to be 3 reporting entities for possible tsunami

Latest Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Bulletins
PTWC issues international watches and warnings for the Pacific Ocean, warnings for the State of Hawaii, and interim advisories for the Indian Ocean, greater Caribbean, and the South China Sea region of the Pacific.

Latest West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Bulletin
WC/ATWC issues national watches and warnings US states in North America, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, and Canada.

Latest Japan Meteorological Agency Alerts
JMA issues tsunami advisories for the northwest Pacific, and interim advisories for the South China Sea region of the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Which has two reporting agencies. Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center and Indian Ocean
Quoting IKE:
I wonder if the convection in the NW Caribbean would be reclassified as TD16 or would it start as invest 91L?


its got to be a new invest,as td16 has dissapated,the gem has a decent TS coming your way friday!!!,so much for the season being over for the US(your area included)....atleast for the eastern Gulf!!!!.....
386. IKE
Quoting stillwaiting:


its got to be a new invest,as td16 has dissapated,the gem has a decent TS coming your way friday!!!,so much for the season being over for the US(your area included)....atleast for the eastern Gulf!!!!.....


I'll be eating crow if that CMC/GEM verifies...it's got some support with the latest NOGAPS...yeah it does look like an eastern GOM system.
387. IKE
Water temps south of the Florida panhandle...out in the GOM 50-100 miles are from 78-80 degrees.
388. IKE
I'll check back in a bit...
Quoting IKE:


I'll be eating crow if that CMC/GEM verifies...it's got some support with the latest NOGAPS...yeah it does look like an eastern GOM system.
Florida heads up the U.S. late season storms with 12. Louisiana had 1 I think that was it for gulf states.
I know its waaaaaay off topic buuuuut,we're having and rally here in Sarasota,FL at noon meeting at marina jack's and marching over the causway and back!!!!.....48hrs until our seedling should start to sprout(91L)!!!!!
Advisory for coastal flooding at time of high tide, (not unusual for us)
Small craft advisories (not unusual for us),
Chilly - did I say that all ready? Sweater weather for sure.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Advisory for coastal flooding at time of high tide, (not unusual for us)
Small craft advisories (not unusual for us),
Chilly - did I say that all ready? Sweater weather for sure.


let me guess 60s to 70s


lol here we got down to 30 degrees this morning. and are expected to stay in the 40s all day
In analyzing the latest computer models, the CMC seems quite bullish and somewhat unrealistic at this time as nearly all computer models are forecasting high wind shear to continue dominating the Gulf of Mexico in response to several shortwave troughs migrating across the Southeastern US. Since the CMC has no model support at this time, I will not consider it in my forecasts.

Watching satellite loops, the NW Caribbean disturbance remains very disorganized with no clear low-level circulation evident. About the only way that I know there is a developing low-level circulation is through surface observations, yet those still indicate a rather weak, ill-defined circulation. It will take quite some time for any tropical development to occur with this disturbance and would not be surprised if no further development occured.

Overall, there are no concerns throughout the Atlantic basin, especially for the United States over the next 48 to 72 hours. Beyond that time frame, it becomes very uncertain.
RE:390. stillwaiting
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


let me guess 60s to 70s


lol here we got down to 30 degrees this morning. and are expected to stay in the 40s all day
A cold wave for sure. Current temp 54.7°F /12.6°C. Though, I will not bring out my heater until January, when it is damp with the chill.
At 30 degrees we would have 'winter storm warnings' You know, bring in pets and plants, check on elderly etc.

RE:390. stillwaiting
I was hoping someone else would ask. What kind of rally?
19/1145 UTC 17.6N 87.3W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean



Photobucket


Photobucket

393. cchsweatherman

Overall, there are no concerns throughout the Atlantic basin, especially for the United States over the next 48 to 72 hours. Beyond that time frame, it becomes very uncertain.
Thanks cchsweatherman
just to make it clear:the area of interest in the west carib. is not supposed to develop UNTIL atleast 48hrs from now....sheer forcasting is VERY unreliable past 72hrs and the likelyhood of a TD or a TS effecting the eastern gulf is becoming more likely,not less likely,the GOM is not closed fo the season as the sheer will relax as a low closes off in the central plains wed. and creates a light southerly flow over the eastern GOM,I give the eastern gulf a 50/50 chance of a TD or TS in the next 5-10 days,and the chances of a hurricane at 20%.......we'll wait,and we'll see,I personally think that we'll have a 55-65mph TS hitting just north of TPA~JMO
Quoting vortfix:
19/1145 UTC 17.6N 87.3W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean



Photobucket


Photobucket



That would definitely lend support for my analysis this morning.
Overall, there are no concerns throughout the Atlantic basin, especially for the United States over the next 48 to 72 hours. Beyond that time frame, it becomes very uncertain
Ok lets talk baseball, tampa bay are going to wash their sox tonight LOL
surfmom:Waves this morning look like poop!!!!,maybe,maybe....2 footers,maybe....I may go fishing for a bit though!!!!,its a little chilly though about 69degrees..lol
Quoting stillwaiting:
surfmom:Waves this morning look like poop!!!!,maybe,maybe....2 footers,maybe....I may go fishing for a bit though!!!!,its a little chilly though about 69degrees..lol
she said she was heading out this morning for a paddle, but was freezing her but off,
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Aussie? Heck I hear that from my neighbors across the street here in Florida.

I've never ran out of beer
In analyzing the latest computer models, the CMC seems quite bullish and somewhat unrealistic at this time as nearly all computer models are forecasting high wind shear to continue dominating the Gulf of Mexico in response to several shortwave troughs migrating across the Southeastern US. Since the CMC has no model support at this time, I will not consider it in my forecasts.

Watching satellite loops, the NW Caribbean disturbance remains very disorganized with no clear low-level circulation evident. About the only way that I know there is a developing low-level circulation is through surface observations, yet those still indicate a rather weak, ill-defined circulation. It will take quite some time for any tropical development to occur with this disturbance and would not be surprised if no further development occured.

Overall, there are no concerns throughout the Atlantic basin, especially for the United States over the next 48 to 72 hours. Beyond that time frame, it becomes very uncertain.
Also wanted to add that the situation may change, but the analysis I have presented deals with the current environment and satellite observations. Don't worry, I will continue to monitor this disturbance to watch for signs of possible organization or development.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I've never ran out of beer


I drank at least 10 beers a day watching Hurricane Ike.
Gosh if we only knew what Obama means by CHANGE, we could all sleep soundly at night. Unfortunately it just a GIMMICK.
Let's face it....the Western Carib is the only game left in this season.

If anything does come out of that low pressure area it will be in the day 4/5 time frame.
Most likely a wave/trough situation.
There might possibly be an associated weak surface low along with it and the whole moisture field should lift up into the Eastern GOM and across FL into the Atlantic.
There could be an area of concern in the western Atlantic off the FL coast and the SE US once this arrives in that area.

That is too far out to think about at this time.

Deleted.
It seems to me that 91L will become a depression, just not today. It looks good on the satellites, it just needs more organization and time.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I drank at least 10 beers a day watching Hurricane Ike.
thats the first thing I go and get when there is a hurricane anywhere in sight, LOL when key west puts an alcohol curfew on you better be stocked
Quoting FMDawg:
Gosh if we only knew what Obama means by CHANGE, we could all sleep soundly at night. Unfortunately it just a GIMMICK.



I Respect your opinion 100%,my friend!!!
Quoting keywestbrat:
thats the first thing I go and get when there is a hurricane anywhere in sight, LOL when key west puts an alcohol curfew on you better be stocked


Remember during Wilma I bought at least 6 packs of bear, they were on sale they said 'By 1 get 2 free' I was wondering how they werent going to run out. Everyone was at the store that day, because heck the strongest Hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic was heading our way.
WTNT80 EGRR 190510

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.10.2008


NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP

IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT



MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

Looks like 91L is infact TD 16.
Hello all, I need sum help finding shear maps for northern Australia, since its almost our turn to be in the tropical season. Just want to get things prepared for when the proverbial hits the fan. If you can just post links i will be very thankful. Cheers AussieStorm
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I drank at least 10 beers a day watching Hurricane Ike.

you only drank 10
Aftershock from the 7.1 earlier.
Region:TONGA
Geographic coordinates:21.942S, 173.732W
Magnitude:5.8 Mw
Depth:35 km
Universal Time (UTC):19 Oct 2008 12:55:05
Time near the Epicenter:20 Oct 2008 01:55:05
Local standard time in your area: 19 Oct 2008 12:55:05
Location with respect to nearby cities:
178 km (111 miles) ESE (120 degrees) of NUKU'ALOFA, Tonga
367 km (228 miles) S (176 degrees) of Neiafu, Tonga
2573 km (1599 miles) WSW (255 degrees) of PAPEETE, Tahiti, French Polynesia
403. stillwaiting
Since I asked and you answered, one quick thing before we get back "on topic"
What ever your political leanings, O'bama '08. has a ring to it. In any case, it is encouraging to see so many people involved.

I have been voting for a long time, and I have found that I cannot lose - no matter whether my guy wins or not.
If my guy wins .. that is sorta gratifying
If my guy loses.. (eventually whoever wins ALWAYS mucks it up) and since he is not my guy this time.. that is sorta satisfying

In any case, sounds like you will have good weather - have fun.

Now back on topic
417. AussieStorm - Only merlot I drink is aussie

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Remember during Wilma I bought at least 6 packs of bear, they were on sale they said 'By 1 get 2 free' I was wondering how they werent going to run out. Everyone was at the store that day, because heck the strongest Hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic was heading our way.
drinking is considered a sport down here, so have plenty on hand, wouldn't ever want to run out, the naitives would be mighty restless LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like 91L is infact TD 16.


Please explain how you have arrived at this conclusion.
Just wanted to correct a misconception that I have seen with some bloggers this morning. This NW Caribbean disturbance is NOT an official invest at this time. On the SSD site, the only reason why they have a floater labeled "Invest" is so that forecasters can better analyze satellite imagery of this disturbance. Neither the NHC or NAVY are currently tracking this disturbance as an invest.
SKUNKED!! just back, no waves, might have had something -- but the tide is a LOW, LOW......have to wait till I get to the treasure coast

Stillwaiting - Bait fish are running.....good water clarity
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hello all, I need sum help finding shear maps for northern Australia, since its almost our turn to be in the tropical season. Just want to get things prepared for when the proverbial hits the fan. If you can just post links i will be very thankful. Cheers AussieStorm


Link

Link
RE:423. cchsweatherman
I am glad an area does not have to have an official invest designation to be followed by floater - works for me.
Quoting keywestbrat:
drinking is considered a sport down here, so have plenty on hand, wouldn't ever want to run out, the naitives would be mighty restless LOL

Drinking is a national past-time here.
First thing that's asked when u get to a party after the hello's is.... whats ya tonic
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I drank at least 10 beers a day watching Hurricane Ike.


My sobriety resolve was tested to say the least. :)

(Yes, a student that doesn't drink alcohol... we do exist. Honest.)
hey surfmom, bugger, was the water cold as well?
Quoting Cotillion:


Link

Link


Your an absolute champ. Thanks very much
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:423. cchsweatherman
I am glad an area does not have to have an official invest designation to be followed by floater - works for me.


Ditto to that. In fact, they have placed floaters over places where large wildfires were ongoing. Whenever there is something of keen interest, the SSD usually places a floater over the area.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Drinking is a national past-time here.
First thing that's asked when u get to a party after the hello's is.... whats ya tonic

LOL just love it when the yanks try and drink with us aussies they can't keep up to save their lives, 2 VB's and they are passed out LOL bygones my yanky friends
Quoting keywestbrat:

LOL just love it when the yanks try and drink with us aussies they can't keep up to save their lives, 2 VB's and they are passed out LOL bygones my yanky friends


No-one's even close to the Polish. Can drink anyone under the table. The amount of spirits they put away... sheesh. Nice people. :)
Quoting Cotillion:


No-one's even close to the Polish. Can drink anyone under the table. The amount of spirits they put away... sheesh. Nice people. :)
It's all fun either way you look at it, starting to blow harder in the keys
Quoting AussieStorm:

Drinking is a national past-time here.
First thing that's asked when u get to a party after the hello's is.... whats ya tonic

What are your DUI laws?
South Carolina takes DUI seriously - you lose your license. When once again licensed, you need to take out a mortgage (or sell your first born) in order to buy auto insurance (which is required)
When I plan to drink, I use a designated driver or cab - do not want to risk my CDL (commercial drivers license)

432. keywestbrat - Sorry that it takes y'all so long to get an effect :)

It has warmed up to 56.7°F / 13.7°C
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like 91L is infact TD 16.


Link?
Ohh.. btw - I am Irish - 'nough said

Or to be literal half Irish (mothers side). Granny said y'all and I reckon with an Irish brogue.
Just wanted to note that in the last few frames from visible satellite imagery, the NW Caribbean appears to be attempting to organize as a low-level circulation has become somewhat more apparent, although still not obvious. In addition, convection has been steadily increasing, but still without pronounced organization. Overall, it seems like there may be something attempting to brew in the Northwest Caribbean, but it continues to have a difficult time.
Our DUI laws in oz are really strict, our limit is .05, and they have what we call booze buses which are mobile and they set up anywhere they like and stop everyone, big fine and loss of licsence, I cab it every time when i am there not worth the hassle, do the same here in fact
Quoting keywestbrat:
Our DUI laws in oz are really strict, our limit is .05, and they have what we call booze buses which are mobile and they set up anywhere they like and stop everyone, big fine and loss of licsence, I cab it every time when i am there not worth the hassle, do the same here in fact


Ours here in England (Or Pommie-land for the Aussies) is also very strict. 0.08% is the limit (In American terms) Straight away it's a one year disqualification of your licence if caught 'drink driving', as well as a fine.

It can vary, that's just the minimum. Increasingly (In part to social stigma attached; drink driving is increasingly seen as blind stupidity) the penalties are getting higher. Can be 18 month - 2 year disqualification, (3 years if caught again) and up to a 6 month jail term and a fine of up to £5,000. (About $8,000 off the top of my head.)

Sometimes the police do go overboard with it, as it includes "being in charge" of your vehicle. Which unfortunately, gives over-zealous policemen the license to take it too far.

But that's England for you.
432. keywestbrat - Sorry that it takes y'all so long to get an effect :)
I have rowdyed down alot, getting a bit long in the tooth for an everyday event,
Quoting KEHCharleston:

What are your DUI laws?
South Carolina takes DUI seriously - you lose your license. When once again licensed, you need to take out a mortgage (or sell your first born) in order to buy auto insurance (which is required)
When I plan to drink, I use a designated driver or cab - do not want to risk my CDL (commercial drivers license)

432. keywestbrat - Sorry that it takes y'all so long to get an effect :)

It has warmed up to 56.7°F / 13.7°C

Our DUI laws are tough here also, our limit is 0.05, low range DUI is 3months no license + $1500 fine. and it gets a lot worse from there.
Had a nice storm pop up from the Blue Mountains west of Sydney this arvo, a bit of rain be a heck of amount of lightening.
BTW have I told y'all i got stuck by lightening 20 years ago this year coming December 12.
I feel shell-shocked....I think my brain and sinuses have shriveled....I walked out the door this AM to be greeted w/60 degree weather-- heard the wind through the night, but did not expect getting slammed. It's 68 degrees now air/surf site says water is 80 -- felt more like 78-76. I took a quick paddle for disciplines sake and to start to acclimate to colder temps. Had to wear a spring suit (3/4 shorty) grrrrr.... hopefully it'll warm-up some. The sun is bright and the air is really fresh....sky is an intense blue --- better a day to go running. Stillwaiting -- going to be heading out in a while (got to feed male tribe) I'll zip by and see if your out. Maybe it will be your lucky day --- for fishing I mean LOL
442. AussieStorm
BTW have I told y'all i got stuck by lightening 20 years ago this year coming December 12.
Yikes - I am glad you are around to tell the tale - how did it happen?
440. cotillion, yea our boys in blue are over zealous as well, our slogan over here is "Drink, Drive, Bloody Idiot" they have this on every bill board known to man in oz
Quoting AussieStorm:

Our DUI laws are tough here also, our limit is 0.05, low range DUI is 3months no license + $1500 fine. and it gets a lot worse from there.
Had a nice storm pop up from the Blue Mountains west of Sydney this arvo, a bit of rain be a heck of amount of lightening.
BTW have I told y'all i got stuck by lightening 20 years ago this year coming December 12.

Don't get me started on the Booze buses, I get stopped at least once a week on the way home from work, I finish work at midnight.


Our 'invest' floater.
keywestbrat:local gulf temp of 82 degrees here in SRQ,well able to sustain a TC!!!!uh-oh....
RE:438. cchsweatherman
Does this change the 48-72hr reprieve?

443. surfmom
Hi surfmom. This too will pass (I hope), Surely warmer days are in your forcast

Quoting KEHCharleston:
442. AussieStorm
BTW have I told y'all i got stuck by lightening 20 years ago this year coming December 12.
Yikes - I am glad you are around to tell the tale - how did it happen?

I got struck by a branch off from a bolt that hit a tree about 100mtrs away. hit me in my right should and exited out of my right foot. Since then i get a buzz, like i get hypo, when a storm is around.
deleted
419 cchs - thanks for the illustration - always appreciate your time doing posting these maps. I've said it before, but your work has accelerated my learning curve : )
BBL - have a good morning !!
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning
19:30 PM IST October 19 2008
======================================

The well marked low pressure area over southwest Arabian Sea concentrated into a depression and lays centered as of 1200 UTC over southwest Arabian Sea near 9.0N 59.5E or about 1050 kms east-southeast of Alula, Somalia and 1100 kms southeast of Salalah, Oman.

Satellite imageries indicat improvement in cloud organization during the past 12 hours. The dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 6.0 and 13N and 54.0 and 60.0E. As the deep convection is sheared to the west. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -750C. Vertical wind shear of horizonal wind over the region is 10-20 knots and past 24 hours shear tendency is 5 to -10 knots. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which roughly runs along 150N. The sea surface temperatures near the system and over the region to the west is 27-28C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.
Quoting stillwaiting:
keywestbrat:local gulf temp of 82 degrees here in SRQ,well able to sustain a TC!!!!uh-oh....
rot row (astro from jetsons LOL) I don't know what our temp is at the moment, but close to wet suit time
Good morning.

I still think the 1 deg. box centered 18.5N/85.5W is what it is trying to organize around. Looked that way yesterday and still looks that way today.
I think that is the fastest I've seen the IMD issue an advisory, LMAO
Quoting surfmom:
I feel shell-shocked....I think my brain and sinuses have shriveled....I walked out the door this AM to be greeted w/60 degree weather-- heard the wind through the night, but did not expect getting slammed. It's 68 degrees now air/surf site says water is 80 -- felt more like 78-76. I took a quick paddle for disciplines sake and to start to acclimate to colder temps. Had to wear a spring suit (3/4 shorty) grrrrr.... hopefully it'll warm-up some. The sun is bright and the air is really fresh....sky is an intense blue --- better a day to go running. Stillwaiting -- going to be heading out in a while (got to feed male tribe) I'll zip by and see if your out. Maybe it will be your lucky day --- for fishing I mean LOL
walked out to 40 degree weather here 60 is warm lol
BBL, fantasy fest time,
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:438. cchsweatherman
Does this change the 48-72hr reprieve?

443. surfmom
Hi surfmom. This too will pass (I hope), Surely warmer days are in your forcast



In response to your question, it could change the reprieve, but like the NHC, I want to see further organization and persistence before changing my thinking. For right now, my thinking still stands.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Please explain how you have arrived at this conclusion.


No idea, just a guess. Maybe its leftover energy.
very quite in the atlantic now
Looks like a Nor'easter off the coast of the USA.


The Remnant Low of Omar can be seen, and 91L which appears to starting to become better organized.
Wow! I really need to wake up right now. Been making a big mistake in my analysis for the NW Caribbean disturbance in terms of the computer models. Throughout my analysis, I had been just analyzing the 850mb-200mb level wind shear on the computer models. But this would only apply to well-developed systems and not developing systems. Instead of using the 850mb-200mb level wind shear models, I should be using the 850mb-500mb level wind shear models.

In analyzing those models, the wind shear seems far less hostile in the Gulf of Mexico and could lend an explanation as to why the CMC has been quite bullish on this disturbance. If the wind shear goes as planned by the computer models, this disturbance could stand a better chance at development than I had originally thought. Still don't know how much this will change my thinking yet since I'm waiting on further organization and convective persistence before I become more interested in tracking this disturbance.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like a Nor'easter off the coast of the USA.


The Remnant Low of Omar can be seen, and 91L which appears to starting to become better organized.


Could you explain why you are continuing to call the Northwest Caribbean disturbance "91L" when neither the NHC or NAVY are tracking it as such?
Attempting to become better organized.
SurfMom: Won't it ever warm up?

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Could you explain why you are continuing to call the Northwest Caribbean disturbance "91L" when neither the NHC or NAVY are tracking it as such?


Woops, I assumed it was 91L because someone said on here it was. I just checked the Navy site and just realized I made a mistake. I need my coffee.
Alright, the Caribbean Disturbance.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Attempting to become better organized.


Looks like we might see TD 17 from this in the next 2-3 days.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Looks like we might see TD 16 from this in the next 2-3 days.


17* TD 16's COC pretty much died out.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Attempting to become better organized.


Throughout the morning, a low-level circulation has become better organized and somewhat more apparent. Seems like environmental conditions are improving and becoming more favorable as lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence have increased and become better established with the system. This explains the noted increase in convection. In addition, lower-level vorticity has gotten stronger and better defined.

Guess I spoke too soon. This further proves that the atmosphere can experience some rapid changes. But, of course, persistence will be the key.
RE:454. HadesGodWyvern
Thanks
Qscat misses the area, but for those who (like me) are unsure of the location, you can see it on this map Arabian Sea between 6.0 and 13N and 54.0 and 60.0E

Click to enlarge
If I am reading things right, then this storm would not make landfall in India. However, in searching for websites about Arabian Cyclones, I did find this site:Historical Records of Severe Cyclonic storms which formed over Arabian sea and made landfall at the Western coast of India during the period from 1970-1999 - Quite a few of them were Oct/Nov storms

RE:463. CybrTeddy
Looks like a Nor'easter off the coast of the USA.

Say it ain't so!
Due to the improved satellite appearance this morning and improving environmental conditions that have been developing at the same time, I will have a Special Tropical Disturbance Analysis coming. This will include my typical graphical satellite analysis, but will also further explain the latest trends that I have noticed.
cchs:that explains it!!!,I couldn't understand why you we're being so conservitive with the NW carib disturb.,its been quite persistent for about 72 hrs now,w/orgainization expected to to begin in 36-48hrs,according to my analyisis.....and then a drift to the North or NNE should begin after 48-72hrs....
Good morning everyone :)
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
G'morning Orca
Thanks. The large overall pics are my favorite
Good morning Orca..
479. IKE
System in the NW Caribbean looks worthy of invest status now.
Orca, what are your thoughts on the caribbean disturbance?
I think the Caribbean Disturbance has become much better organized in the last 24hours, I would think that NHC will soon put this in the orange circle and officially lable it Invest 91L , JMO
CMC on crack again? Current solution is kinda hard to swallow.
so is this what was TD 16???
Quoting Tazmanian:
so is this what was TD 16???



No. But TD16 did form out the same area of relatively lower pressue.
so how would we no if this is what was TD 16 or this a new invest
486. IKE
Belize airport has NNW winds...

Belize / Phillip Goldston Intl. Airport, Belize (Airport)
Updated: 53 min 20 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
80 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.93 in
Visibility: 12.0 miles
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1673 ft
Scattered Clouds 7874 ft
Mostly Cloudy 24606 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft
487. KBH
morning all, having a look at that swirl in the atlantic, not a lot of cloud but seems to be gathering some from a wide area..can anyone shed some light?
CCHS Weather Center
Special Tropical Disturbance Analysis


Photobucket

Throughout the morning, the Northwest Caribbean disturbance has finally displayed some organization. On visible satellite imagery, this disturbance now has an apparent low-level circulation center in the Gulf of Honduras at around 17.7N and 86.8W. Within the past few frames, it has become very evident. This observation is also supported by the 850MB Vorticity Product from the CIMSS.

In correspondence with this better-defined low-level circulation, convection has been steadily increasing and organizing somewhat around the circulation. This increase in convection is most likely due to improving lower convergence and upper divergence.

During the morning, it appears that an upper-level anticyclone has been developing over Belize and seems to have reached out towards this disturbance. You can clearly see the upper-level anticyclone in this Wind Shear Analysis graphic from the CIMSS. If this anticyclone can become established over this disturbance, then upper-level conditions will become ideal for this to further develop in the next few days.

Overall, the Northwest Caribbean disturbance has been organizing throughout the morning and will be watched for further organization and persistence before this becomes any concern.
Goodnight all from Sydney Australia
T.C.F.A (nw carib/s cen carib)

INV/91L/31
EST POS
17.9N/86.7W


AREA OF INTEREST
EST POS
14.1N/75.1W