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Olga pounds Puerto Rico; major 'Noreaster coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:19 PM GMT on December 11, 2007

The hurricane season of 2007 is definitely not over! Subtropical Storm Olga is the 17th December named storm to develop in the Atlantic since record keeping began in 1851, and only the fourth December named storm to hit land (Figure 1). Seven of the 17 December storms have occurred since 1995. Eight of the December storms have been hurricanes, with a Category 2 hurricane in 1925 being the only December storm to hit the mainland U.S.


Figure 1. Tracks of all Atlantic named storms that have formed in December.

As seen on visible satellite loops, the heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Olga is displaced 100-200 miles to the north of the center. This is one of the hallmarks of a subtropical storm. The difference is not important, as the winds and rain are similar for both types of storms. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico clearly shows the circulation of Olga and some well-organized bands of rain. Rain is the major threat from Olga, and amounts of 3-6 inches have already fallen over northern Puerto Rico, causing flash flooding and mudslides. Heavier rain amounts of over eight inches have fallen on ocean areas to the north of Puerto Rico (Figure 2), and rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches may hit the regions of the Dominican Republic hard hit by Tropical Storm Noel just six week ago. Haiti is also at risk of heavy rains that might cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


Figure 2. Latest precipitation estimate from the Puerto Rico radar.

Wind shear, which dropped to about 15-20 knots Monday evening, has increased to 20-30 knots today. This higher shear, combined with Olga's passage over the rough terrain of Hispaniola, should be enough to tear the storm apart. The remnants of Olga may still bring heavy rains of 2-4 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba Wednesday and Thursday. None of the computer models foresee that Olga will survive to become a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. The Hurricane Hunters are not on call to fly Olga.

Major 'Noreaster coming Sunday
Both the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting that a major winter storm will track across the Ohio Valley on Saturday, then explode into a powerful 'Noreaster on Sunday with a central pressure of 970-980 mb off the U.S. northeast coast. Heavy snow amounts of 1-2 feet and significant ice accumulations are possible in inland regions of the Northeast. Locations nearer the coast, such a Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston may mostly get rain, but it is too early to be confident of this forecast. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the coast from New York City to Maine on Sunday.

I'll have a update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. 786
Damn Catas. u have 7 kids and still have time to track storms...you're my hero
All but 2 are in bed. 7 is really not any harder than 3 or 4.
503. 786
wow I'll take your word, I'd love to have a big family just not sure if I have the patience yet
504. 786
On that note I'm gonna say nite to my 3 dogs! (3 is not much more than 4) and hit the sack, let's see what becomes of Olga, nite everyone
505. 0741
it safe for everyone go to bed this Olga will be gone when you wake up
See you all tomorrow!
dont be so sure of that 741 its been one surprize after a another with this one
later 786,catas
509. 0741
KEEPEROFTHEGATE it wont their shear ready to have breakfast and mountain of haiti so you go have nice night not thing worry but we pray for people on islands their getting alot rain tonight
if say so 741 but i've been hear since 18.3n/53.7w an i very surprized with the entire thing to say the least
i will remain here till there is no longer a system to track then its back to hibernation till end of april for me or unless there is any more surprizes that pop up in tropics hey maybe our first system of 2008 will happen in january its happen before it will happen again
it safe for everyone go to bed this Olga will be gone when you wake up

While Olga itself may dissipate tommorow, the pressure gradient between Olga's low pressure area and the high pressure area off the east coast means it will take a long time before Olga's winds diminish. Even if it ceases to be a tropical cyclone, the winds will still be there.
hey maybe our first system of 2008 will happen in january its happen before it will happen again

Doubtful. I don't think there have even been very many invests in January, and there has only been one storm, and it was subtropical in nature.

If we were to get any development in January, it would be from a baroclinic source. And probably in the same location as Olga if it were to be a tropical cyclone. A subtropical cyclone could form almost anywhere in the Atlantic, though.
514. 0741
it look like Olga weaking already by 5am wind will be round 35mph or less some rain and wind for cuba and jamica that it i think we can say season is over for sure
Thank you for the fantastic update Dr.Masters!
516. 7544
all in all shes holding on at this hour and looks like the center is really tring to inch more north and is trying hard to get back in the warm watter if this happens we might see a whole new ballgame if she wants to just hug the cuban coastline
it look like Olga weaking already by 5am wind will be round 35mph or less some rain and wind for cuba and jamica that it i think we can say season is over for sure

As I said ealier, Olga may cease to be a tropical cyclone tommorow, but don't count on the winds to diminish, because of the intense pressure gradient.
7544, are you stormybil? You kind of talk like him. Just wondering.
Did I scare everyone off with my "Olga's winds not diminishing talk"? Seriously, I intended no harm...
Krothie,

Have you seen the 00z canadian global model run?
Nope, sully. Why? What is it? I'd like to see it.

Also, here is the latest discussion for Olga:

OLGA HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION DURING ITS CROSSING OF HISPANIOLA.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME...
AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. THERE ARE NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM NEAR THE CENTER OR FROM THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION....SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. THIS MAY BE
GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. OLGA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FLORIDA...AND
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE
WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON DAYS 4-5. THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION HAS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS
AFTER OLGA MOVES WESTWARD FOR 24-48 HR. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...TO TURN NORTHWARD AND RECURVE INTO THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST OLGA TO TURN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. THIS FORECAST MAY BE DUE TO THOSE MODELS KEEPING MORE
RIDGING WEST OF OLGA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FORECASTING A
STRONG CYCLONE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
BUT WILL NOT YET CALL FOR RECURVATURE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL...
HWRF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS
SO FAR PROTECTED OLGA FROM SHEAR WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HR
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THUS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...CALLING FOR OLGA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 24 HR AND
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND
HWRF FORECAST OLGA TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LIGHTER WIND SHEAR IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND IN CONSEQUENCE BOTH MODELS FORECAST IT
TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
...SO THE CHANCES
OF OLGA BEING A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT AREA APPEAR
RATHER LOW AT THE MOMENT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 19.2N 72.5W 45 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 12/1800Z 19.4N 74.9W 35 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 13/0600Z 19.6N 77.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 19.8N 79.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/0600Z 20.0N 81.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0600Z 20.5N 84.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Track to the North, models recurve to the W. Coast of Fl...
Good morning. Still looks like Florida should get some rain on Friday and Saturday. The storm weakened over land. Pretty predictable storm.
If this Storm happens to combine with the cold front which is forecast to come through Fl, we could end up with some pretty stormy conditions. The NWS already says we're getting 26 mph winds with the passage of the front, but if this system (or its remnants) are joined with the front then the effects would be much greater.
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A cold front stretches from a series of low pressure area across the Mississippi Valley passes along much of Eastern Texas to near 29N/101W. Meanwhile, an upper trough sits over the Eastern Rockies from New Mexico to Canada. Upper divergence ahead of the upper trough and low level inflow from the Gulf is producing a swath of cloudiness and numerous showers from Mexico across Texas into the Deep South. A broad surface ridge centered on two highs in the Western Atlantic is producing 15-20 knot return flow and fair weather across the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Olga continues to move westward across Hispaniola. As of 0900 UTC the cyclone was located near 19.2N/72.5W moving off to the west at 16 knots with maximum sustain winds near 45 knots and a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb. The cyclone will continue to move west to west northwest under the influence of the broad surface ridge mentioned earlier. Most of shower and thunderstorm activity is to the north of center between 75W and 65W south of 25N. Showers are non existent to the south where dry stable flow dominates. The entire north Caribbean from the Leeward Islands to Cuba will experience gale force winds due to the pressure gradient between Olga and the high pressure. These winds will push 10-20 ft seas mainly on the Atlantic shores with the highest seas acorss Hispniola. The latest AMSU-B rain estimations showed 2 inches of rain possible with higher amounts received at higher elevations. Elsewhere across the Western Atlantic remains fair to partly cloudy.

by W456
good morning
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Plenty of mid-upper level dry sits across much of the Caribbean due a confluent zone south of Olga and thus shower activity remains limited across the region. The pressure gradient has increase across the Western Caribbean west of 80W and the Eastern Caribbean east of 70W with the a col in the region south of Olga. These winds are seen advecting patches of shallow moisture from Olga and other moisture sources across the Western Caribbean and Central America. Vigorous shower and thunderstorm activity have develop within divergent flow aloft across the Southern Windward Islands, Trinidad and the Northeast coasts of Venezuela and Guyana. Otherwise, mainly dry weather dominates elsewhere.

by W456
Morning Folks.

Olga holding her own and the northeast preparing for a one two punch :/

Yesterday the forcast wa scalling for snow showers and sleet on thursday (that was the forcast at 11pm) I wake up this mnorning to a WSW and forcasts for at least 6 to 8 inches with very little change over. Local Mets still holding off on Sundays system but other offices are calling for a Major Nor'Easter with significant snow totals possible over a foot.

I love the Winter Storm Season :o)
morning Bone..I do love winter weather...Its the only weather I have never experience.
Well, I guess both the GFDL and HWRF make Olga a hurricane in the gulf of honduras...that would be interesting
My local NWS area discussion mentioned 3-6 inches for the SW/West central Ohio region...of course the event is still nearly 2 days away from effecting my area
Definatley would be interesting to see what Olga does. What does the CMC show? It was the model that forcasted her to form the earliest LOL
Hi Guys, I disparately need a few days off from work at the barn, totally exhausted -- do you see Olga bringing the GOM any heavy rain,Tampa/SRQ area?
yea extreme. My area is already under a WSW for thursdfays system.

Reading the forcast discussions and getting very angry at the forecasters. My town is covered by two seperate offices and both say diffrent things. One is layed back and wont give estimates because and I quote "Ssystem is still too far int he future to give an estimate" Geez 24hrs is too far out :/

The other office is saying significant winter weather event.
My NWS office says the snow will begin for this part of the Ohio valley on Friday Night and last through about Saturday evening.
sounds plausable.

Surfmom look for some showers associated with the approaching cold front :)
The CMC is a canadian model...wont that make it better to forecast subtropical storms or those storms forming north of 30N. How did the CMC handle Grabrielle.
538. Weather456 11:34 AM GMT on December 12, 2007
The CMC is a canadian model...wont that make it better to forecast subtropical storms or those storms forming north of 30N. How did the CMC handle Grabrielle.


Lol
it was something that came in mind
My area will probably get put on a Winter Wx advisory tonight since were supposed to get overnight and into tomorrow morning...then the real storm comes on Saturday
LOL got finished with the other offices discusiion. TOTALLY DIFFRENT then the other.

One calls for a more northerly and westerly track for sundays system. The other more southerly and easterly.

One says models trends figure for his forcast the other, his models prove his track.

Being they both cover NYC they always hold off till the last minute. Grrr hate those guys for doing that.

When you read the forcast discussions from other station without major cities in their CWA this is going to be a monster system. Wish my offices would get onboard.
Thanks bonedog, happy to get any kind of wet, but between wanting a day or so off from work, and my backyard (and others) turning into a dustbowl, I was so hoping Olga could be a soaker. This area is so low on water (including ground water) it's going to be rather scary this summer. All water holes (naturally fed) in the polo club pastures & acreage are the lowest I have ever seen them. Most went dry this summer. And yes they keep building golf courses and watering lawns that have no business existing in Florida.
sorry to hear surfmom about the water :( There are models showing Olga swinging into Florida so you may still have a chance for that. Time will tell as the models started showing the swing during the overnight. have to see if they keep following suit before getting the hopes up.
At least the cold front will bring me some waves. No work Sunday AM or Monday Am, so if I can take care of all my domestic responsibilities, maybe I can put the rubber suit on and get some waves. Even though it's the December, the weather has been hot. At Sunday's Polo games, we had to really worry about the horses overheating - imagine in DECEMBER - 80 degrees plus by 11:00 am. Means we have to clip ALL OF THEM. GRRRRR
Great to chatter with all this AM. The clock dictates I must get the kitchen running and get the men folk to school and work and me as well. Take care - have a good Day
good day to you to surfmom
Frosty is welcoming the snow

Well in about an hour we will be able to see what the storm looks like in the sunlight this could be interesting
BBL
BBL
track mark 19.2n/71.9w
good morn everyone olga looks to be sill here a little weaker but still here there have been reports of evac's in the dom.republic
Olga has made it back over water once again and JP, your eyes are not deceiving you as I too am seeing this in the Shortwave loop as well. If it could somehow go just about another 40 miles north, we could see a very different picture here in South Florida for Friday and Saturday.

Mentioning South Florida, I believe there will be a rather strong squall line that develops out ahead of the front on Saturday that could produce severe weather. Watch out South Florida for Saturday since I see the recipe for one nasty squall line.
i was thinking that too jp but just did'nt want to be first to say i thought i was seeing things myself this am
Keeper, don't be afraid to share your thoughts, even if there the first. This is the reason we blog so that we can see how various people see the storm so that we may all learn and may all gain an understanding of the infinite amount of view points out there.
dont worry ccsh iam not afraid i was in the middle of tryin to confirm i dont jump gun to often thats all.
On satellite, I really do not see the nasty shear that is supposedly going to shread Olga apart. I may be wrong, but I just don't see any evidence of it. Yes, I do see some shear, but not enough to hurt Olga.
I am going to wait for the next full advisory from the NHC before I update anything on my website.
Hi all,

Happy December tropical weather....

My weather guy, from WPB, told us Olga would be affecting our weather Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

these late season storms are full of surprizes this one anyway has been one surprize after another
The first Visible shots are coming in now. Here is where I see the center of Olga and the motion I have been seeing over the past three to four hours (for JP and Keeper's confirmation).
img src="Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
morning folks.

sorry I missed you all arriving. I was adding songs to jp's blog :)
i see double areas of cirulation where u point cchs and another at 19.2n/71.9w
Keeper, I've been meaning to ask this. How do you derive your track marks that you have been posting throughout the history of Olga? I find them to be quite accurate and I have used them in my own forecasts. I would just like to know how you do it. Thanks and keep posting them.
569. IKE
Things going in Olga's favor...30 knots of shear hasn't killed it. Shear is decreasing around it.

Still has a strong circulation.

Water temps are at least 79 degrees...where it's at now the water temps are in the 80's.


Inhibiting factor...land. If it can move WNW it'll avoid eastern Cuba.

Still looks like at least a 40-45 mph TS.

Olga lives!
Keep in mind I just used the Paint program on my computer, so it is hard to pinpoint things. I have to find my image editing program that I have on my computer, but I can't even remember the name. I do agree with both Keeper and JP's assessments. I may ahve placed it a little far west.
571. IKE
The circulation may be a little further north...or reforming off of the north coasts.

Then again, I could be wrong.
I see the coc at 20.5N 72.5W

am I close?
delted, double post
Give me a minute Bonedog and I will take a look at your coordinates.
577. IKE
Bonedog 7:14 AM CST on December 12, 2007
I see the coc at 20.5N 72.5W

am I close?


You might be. If that's it...it's moving WNW.

I also read the discussions from different offices this morning. Most of them have slowed down the strong low/cold front about 12 hours this weekend. Maybe Olga or whats left of her brings rain to south Florida this weekend.
Wow, I was way off in my image. You are close Bonedog. I now see the center underneath a convective burst at 20.2N - 72.9W. That is a large move to the north and it appears to be reorganizing a bit off the northern Haitian coast. This would certainly offset the projected track.
580. IKE
On the 1245 visible, looks like the circulation is further north and heading WNW.
If you take a look at Visible imagery, it seems like a new center has begun to form off the northern Haitian coast, while another center has gotten cast off towards Cuba. Anyone else seeing this. Loop the visible imagery and zoom in.
JP, does that mean that you do not agree with my coordinates or what? Your comment is a bit misleading in your intent.
Olga took QUITE a beating last night. Not much left of her to speak of. It will be interesting to see if she can pull it together today.
587. IKE
StormW...where do you see the broad center at?
Morning Storm.
Last nights CMC brings Olga right to W Central FL.
so I was pretty close? cool.

finally getting the hand of these sat images ;o)
more models showign the swing into Florida now

oh JP. I filled up your blog quite abit. seems I was on a roll this morning.
Good morning Storm! This morning, based on visible imagery, I have the center at 20.2N - 72.9W and moving WNW or at about 290 degrees. Do you agree with this? If this is the case, the forecast path is already about 125 miles off.
596. IKE
0Z CMC...at 997 mb's hitting SW FL!

Link

Gets pulled north...then NE by that mother low forming this weekend..
Do you know what I cannot stand? I can't stand the news station's meteorologists continuing to say it is not a threat to Florida and that it will stay to the south without giving possible alternative outcomes. This is quite misleading and irresponsible, especially when you have models that show it impacting Florida directly. That is why I have my own personalized Tropical Update on my site that goes against conventional wisdom and presents different possible outcomes. People need to be aware of any possibilities. This just makes me sick.
sure does Storm.

I am already under a WSW for Thursday. Local mets and the HPC calling for 4 to 8 inches.

Then we go to round two on Sunday.

I have a question for you when you get a chance. Do you notice the GFS starting to take a more southerly and easterly track to the 40/70 benchmark? Seems frame the frames I have saved and the newest run it marched a little lower which would keep more of the area in the cold sector.
to me on vis cen. looks to be 19.9n/71.8w
GM all,interesting looking at the models,and then listening to the mets,you would think there are two different storms,Most mets are saying Olga is going into the yucatan.
cch dont feel bad. I feel the same way with my local mets (not TV but actual NWS employees). They are still not giving concrete details about tomorrows snow storm and this weekends Nor'Easter. Both keep saying its the later shifts responsiblity. we are now 24hrs away and they still are saying its too far in the future to give predictions of accumulation totals!!
there are people here that dont even know about the storm approaching.
morning NE
I can't wait to read what Dr. Masters has to say regarding Olga this morning and I hope he has picked up on the change in Olga's center position as well as the current WNW motion that has been taking place.
Storm, I very rarely question you since you are at a level well beyond mine, but did you say 74.9W?
609. IKE
StormW 7:39 AM CST on December 12, 2007
587. IKE 8:26 AM EST on December 12, 2007
StormW...where do you see the broad center at?


19.7N;74.9W moving about 275-280


Thanks.

I see it slightly further N and E. Maybe I'm wrong.
Storm that appears to be the consensus right now.

all around that general area.

I had it at 20.5N 72.5W and a few others slightly higher and farther west.

an we are all agreeing on the WNW- NW motion.

guess time will tell at the 10am advisory if the NHC agrees.
Same here IKE. I stand firm by my coordinates at 20.2N, 72.9W. Could you check those out Storm?
613. IKE
W...if that's the COC...then it's moving at what you were saying...275 to 280 degrees.
Then what am I seeing at 20.2N and 72.9W, Storm?
617. IKE
OK....the 1315 UTC makes it easier to spot the center...looks like you're right StormW.
620. IKE
Thanks...Storm...it's heading just north of west. Still think Florida...south Florida will get some rain from it...
Olga 2007's E and Z storms of 05 {rolleyes}
622. IKE
Yeah...it's right at the tropical forecast point on the close-up visible.
Nonetheless, it looks like Olga is reorganizing and is recovering from her trip over Hispanola.
626. GBlet
We never got an acuarate forecast for this storm Bone! I tried for days to get good info! This storm is header your way and it is very dangerous. My only hope is that it is more snow than ice now. The damage here will be around for at least 6 months.
Morning...

Olga looking ugly this morning as you can already see fast winds affecting the circulation with the TS.What i see this morning is a broadening and open LLC racing westward away from what is left of the thunderstorm activity which to me is a clear sign of
westerly shear affecting the cyclone.Most of what is left of olga on the lastest GFS will get pulled into florida giving the state some much needed rainfall. Adrian
628. GBlet
I hope the trees stop falling today.
I apologize for questioning you Storm, I may have gotten a little heady, for lack of better words. Now that I have gone back and reassessed my observations and your's, I have to admit that you seem to be correct. I know I should never question somebody who is a professional meteorologist since I am only an amateur meteorologist. Thanks for your valuable input Storm.
GB. looks to be a big snow event with a narrow line of sleet/freezing rain. Only savior for the northeast is the Atlantic. Alot of times ice storms either go all snow or a rain/snow mix due to the warm air intrusion brough off the atlantic.

Right now it appears we are looking at 3 to 6 inches before changeover to rain/sleet in NYC, 4 to 8 inches in the colder suburbs with a brief changeover to sleet/frezzing rain and an all snow event farther west and north 6 to 10 inches there.

Biggest problem is the TV news has so far downplayed this system and some are even saying a day of snow showers. I havent heard on media outlet yet calling the storm right except for a local radio station that said the snow totals I just mentioned.
Morning bone,really fascinated by this nor'easter this weekend,a lot of different elements to this including Olga.
just downloaded latest image and it appears out over windward channel between hati and cuba got to go to work be back at lunch later all
yea NE its going to be a wild one two punch up here.

I need to update my blog but just dont have the time right now. Maybe tonight or early AM tomorrow.
Looks like Olga is breathing once again if you take a look at a wide visible shot.

Storm, I still do not see the supposed wind shear on satellite imagery. Have you seen any evidence of this supposed "Olga-shreading" wind shear anywhere in Olga's path? I don't.
636. GBlet
The NWS never got a good handle on this until major damage was already done. I hope it does stay a little more narrow than it did here, it was statewide through Ok and Ks, while still maintaining Ne track.
cchsweatherman, if you don't mind me asking, where do ya live?
Cooper City, FL
I think we can all agree a downgrade to TD Olga will happen on the next advisory.
ok cchs, I live in West Palm Beach, FL.
Bone,
yesterday I was leaning toward snow to rain,in my area,but t his morning a lot of the models are startgin trend a little more to the east,which is bad news,but between now and the weekend,the models will probably continue to flip flop


will be interesting to see what happens in a couple days when the shear is forecasted to relax a bit.....

after traversing Hisp., surprised there is anything left.... many storms on a similar track have dissipated.

I do hope Florida gets much needed rain! :)
644. GBlet
We got lucky, we never lost power and we maintain that country boy lifestyle, so we are doing fine. It will be next week before power is restored.
CaneWhisperer, I do not agree that it will be a TD by the next advisory at 10 AM. I think it will stay the same as it is now. It still looks like a decent tropical storm.
yea NE. I noticed the same. A more southern and eastern track to the system :/

Might not be good for anyone.
West Palm Beach, FL. Just a little bit North of you,
Could some provide me with the RAMSDIS site link again? I thought I had it saved on my Favorites, but I was wrong. Thanks in advance.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp
650. GBlet
No matter how much i warned my friends they did not listen, until it was too late. I got told to calm down that it was no big deal. Now I Chicken Little, do not feel good for being right but at least I am warm.
Just google RAMSDIS..itll show up.Link
I hear ya GB. I am the same way. My wife keeps rolling her eyes at me. I told fine, if it doesnt happen I will clear the snow but if it does she can clear the snow.

Guess I will be nice and warm watching her from the living room ;)
GOES-12 Low Cloud Product,OLGA Link
Good morning Patrap!

Referring back to JP's comment, the circulation still looks impressive considering it took a trip over Hispanola last night. It seems like the convection has begun to fire up again on satellite imagery. Based upon the latest satellite imagery, I would have to say that we have a 50 mph tropical storm at the next advisory that should be coming out very soon. I have still yet to see the wind shear begin to affect this storm as much as the NHC had been indicating and if I am not mistaken, isn't the shear forecasted to decrease in about 48 hours out in the Western Caribbean based on the NAVY's discussion yesterday.
Olga Inhibited by dry air to its west. Link
653. Bonedog 8:25 AM CST on December 12, 2007
I hear ya GB. I am the same way. My wife keeps rolling her eyes at me. I told fine, if it doesnt happen I will clear the snow but if it does she can clear the snow.

Guess I will be nice and warm watching her from the living room ;)


You're getting a lump of coal for Christmas!! LOL!!
A am happy!! :) Looks like a Cool weekend is in store for me. Well, at least seasonable temps. Its been over average here for the past while. Sundy: High 71, Low 51. :)
Does anyone think that NHC will consider adjusting their forecast track to indicate more of a curvature towards Florida based upon the latest computer models? That is the most interesting thing that I want to see with this next advisory.
Good Morning..NHC Model Run Plots

661. GBlet
I am now very happy with not installing central heat in my home. Too many people here are now in shelters for this very reason. My husband will expect me to find good use for the 15 gallons of water i jugged up,"just in case".
MTC I get that anyways :)
Patrap, those runs are from early yesterday and do not reflect the current runs.
Poof.LOL
Those runs are from 11pm CST last night .
Patrap, those images are taking long to load. If you could, provide links so that it does slow down other people's computers. Thanks.
Listen friend,Those images are linked.Get a grip..and get a groove on.
I think 40 mph at next advisory, although I could be wrong. Just, 40 mph is what I seem to think.
WAVCIS 120hr GOM SST model.Click on specific Box for detailed run.


Link
WTNT32 KNHC 121432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1000 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...OLGA WEAKENING BUT RAINS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO A FEW BANDS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OLGA COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
Poof..Olga runs outta steam..Dry air, shear.all taking their toll this am.
WTNT42 KNHC 121431
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1000 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007

OLGA LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND BASED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PROBABLY ALSO LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...WE WILL HANG ON TO OLGA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS JUST IN CASE DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS OR WEST WINDS BECOME
EVIDENT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 10Z...AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THERE REMAINS A BAND OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON THESE DATA.

THE VORTICITY CENTER HAS ACCELERATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 270/20. OLGA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THIS RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION THERE IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN HISPANIOLA. SOME OF
THESE RAINS SHOULD SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 19.1N 75.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 19.2N 77.6W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 80.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/0000Z 20.0N 82.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/1200Z 20.5N 84.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
yea JP you nailed it!!
Wont be much left of it come Friday...this ones a goner.
Decidedly so. Was a neat anomaly for December though.
Looks like Olga is going down,but will give her a round of applause for even forming at this time of year.
morning... hows everyone?
A blind duck in Bangkok could tell it was a Poofer,12 hrs ago. LOL
Quack,Quack
Looks like StormW nailed the coordinates
Morning Lake
LSU ESL site...Link
One more goes *poof*...
will be interesting to see what Doc says
that one dude in the middle has some sort of amish gotee and glasses from 1972... made me giggle.
Biggest word on Olga..

96HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
might be the ghost of ol Abe Linclon
The dude in the TOP RIGHT looks like he could burst at any time!! lol.
Looks like something is behind olga.. just entering the Carribeann.
blind duck in Bangkok????pat sometimes you have me on the floor laughing so hard.
You Know,..there will be a Quiz on Olga come Friday. So,Im suggesting those of you who must pass it,get busy on the review,..

Capice their newbie?

695. GBlet
I want to know what Pat sprinkles on his wheaties.
uh. oh...looks like admin didnt like that pic.. A little too racy if you ask me! :o)
Morning Lake
Breakfast this am...

Link
. GBlet 2:51 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
I want to know what Pat sprinkles on his wheaties.


Government issued wheaties... extra ingredients...
morning NE. you got some kind of bunkering down to do for the end of the week...
702. GBlet
YA THINK?
My real bkfst secret....Link
LOL pat, where do you find this stuff!!!
I have a degree in Blogology, I keep me trade secrets close to my, er..vest
A gift from across the Pond.Led Zeppelin LIVE Monday Night,"Kashmir"...Link
welcome Storm
Stairway to Heaven. Mon Night..London Link
wheres John Paul???
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Reference #6.3f2142d8.1197472497.1c0d4f




geez even the NWS website is having issues. Whats up with the weather systems lately.

Time for them to get a new hampster

storm: Thanks again for the synopsis on Olga. Do you feel that she (or the remnants) have a good chance at boosting the rain chance for W central FL this weekend? We really need the rain. I even have mature live oaks dying out here due to the lack of rain. Thanks
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE POTENTIALLY VERY BUSY AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
NOW FORECASTS THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME NEGATIVE. THIS SIGNAL MAY BE
RELATED TO RECENT MJO ACTIVITY AND OTHER TROPICAL FORCING MECHANISMS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO FORCE THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE INTO A SLOWER
MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME AND ALSO FORCE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING
FEATURES TO DEVELOP...THUS MANIFESTING THE NEGATIVE NAO SIGNAL.


Hey Bone..or anyone that can tell me...What does this mean?
Cant be Zep without the Jones

from your keyboard to Gods ears....
GIGWISE.com on the London Show..Link
He always plays Keyboard on Kashmir.
the band’s recently released and digitally re-mastered greatest hits album, ‘Mothership,’ has overtaken the Spice Girls to become the weeks number one selling record.

Really??? The Spice Girls are selling albums? Really?!?!?
Area of Disturbed Weather 04R

sub-RSMC Mauritius designates 96S.INVEST as Zone Perturbée 04.
The British a funny people.Ever been there? LOL

Its Quite the er, experience. Bring a Lunch though.
yeah I heard the food is void of spice..ironic, huh?
Truism..
I have just done a full update on my site at the CCHS Weather Center.
Sales of tea and coffee have dramatically shot up since it was revealed that Led Zeppelin enjoyed a caffeine infusion prior to taking the stage on Monday night. Said Chip N. Zee, CEO of PG Phoo Tea: ”We’ve never seen anything like it! With this kind of publicity we can finally put the menace of cocaine behind us when people realise that two gallons of caffeine will have you chewing your face off in no time at at all!”

yeah the brits are a funny bunch...
where else would you find Led Zeppelin and Spice girls in the same sentence.
Obituaries..LOL
Lake means alot more snow for us :)

same thing I was noticing back in October.
Yeah, Bone, but it sounds like its a false negative by the way they word it...
I say Olga got a chance of coming back. I guess she needs to build convection soon. Have a nice day.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT NOR-EASTER LATE NEXT WEEKEND. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED
HOWEVER THAT ONE OF THE MAIN PLAYERS INVOLVED IS STILL OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE...
OR EVEN IF THE FORECAST INTERACTIONS WHICH LEAD TO THE COASTAL LOW
WILL EVEN VERIFY.


And then there's this...Pacific feature...whats the dealio?
Lake,Im already for Mother Nature,got the snowblower gased up,ice melt ready,its a Sunday,so don't have to be out on the road,can sit home and watch the Pats.
I think what they were trying to get at is the NAO is being influenced by mechanisms not usually associated with it.

Not that its a false negative but a negative influenced by outside forces not usually associated with it.

Check my blog from Octber or November. I belive I have a blog that mentions me thoughts twords this winter storm season in relation to the NAO and AO
Lake I dont belive the forcaster is talking about this wekends system but the next one down the pipe. There is a very potent Low heading for the Northwest. It could possibly make a run as a Clipper with a coastal low developing from it.

Sat nights storm is a reality, there isnt one model or office not discussing it to some extent. The energy is in the panhandle and expected to move towrds the Gulf Tomorrow and then lift to the coast friday into saturday.
Terra December 12, 2007..coverage Link

Run at Olga..Link
Oh, so there's another nor'easter forecasted for next weekend?
Pacific View, GOES West Link
NEW BLOG!!!
739. LakeShadow 10:51 AM EST on December 12, 2007
Oh, so there's another nor'easter forecasted for next weekend?




thats the 250hr GFS from 06Z. The 12Z isnt out that far yet.
So the local mets here in B-lo were saying that this thing this weekend may track west a little and that will be our only shot at precip from the "bomb" as they call it...
But I'm also wondering if the system will be large enough to pull a cyclonic flow over the lakes to give us a shot of LES.
And I looked at the GFS (10 day-Unisys) and it showed POPS from the western side of the storm in its current track for my area on Sunday eve, but they say it will be a Sat. night storm. So what am I missing? When will it impact my area and how severely? And with this negative NAO...is it the least of my worries?? :o)