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Olga falling apart; big 'Noreaster coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on December 12, 2007

The hurricane season of 2007 is almost over (again!) Tropical Storm Olga's passage over the rough terrain of Hispaniola has considerably disrupted the circulation of the storm, and visible satellite loops show a poorly organized circulation with a few weak rain bands removed to the north and east of the center. Radar loops out of Gran Piedra, Cuba show disorganized patches of rain impacting eastern Cuba, western Haiti, and the southeastern Bahama Islands. Puerto Rico took the brunt of Olga's rains, with amounts exceeding eight inches common (Figure 1). Satellite estimates of rainfall over Hispaniola show maximum rainfall amounts of up to four inches thus far over the northern Dominican Republic and Haiti. Additional rains of 2-4 inches from Olga may cause localized flash flooding and mudslides, but Olga will cause nowhere near the chaos that the 10-25 inches of rain from Tropical Storm Noel did in late October.

Wind shear has increased to 30 knots over Olga, and water vapor satellite imagery shows that Olga is moving into some very dry air. These influences should destroy Olga by Thursday. The remnants of Olga may still bring heavy rains of 2-4 inches to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba, and 1-2 inches to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The 00Z runs of the GFDL and HWRF computer models foresee that Olga will regenerate on Friday and threaten the north coast of Honduras on Sunday as a Category 1 hurricane, but this solution is not supported by the other models. Given Olga's current weak condition, it is unlikely there will be enough left of the storm on Friday to regenerate into anything.


Figure 1. Precipitation estimated from the Puerto Rico radar for Tropical Storm Olga.

Major 'Noreaster coming Sunday
All of the major computer models forecast that a major winter storm will track across the Ohio Valley on Saturday, then explode into a powerful 'Noreaster Sunday off the U.S. northeast coast. Heavy snow amounts of 1-2 feet and significant ice accumulations are possible in inland regions of the Northeast. Rain appears to be the most likely type of precipitation at locations nearer the coast, such as Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. It is too early to be confident of this forecast, since minor changes in the storm's track will greatly influence the type of precipitation. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the coast from New York City to Maine on Sunday.

Ice storm in the Midwest
I haven't found the opportunity to say much about the remarkable ice storm that has paralyzed much of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and surrounding regions this week, as I've been busy talking about Olga and trying to keep up on the latest in climate change science at the American Geophysical Union Conference here in San Francisco. The wunderphotos posted by people to the web site have been truly astounding, chilling, and beautiful, and I thank all of you who posted photos.

I'll have a update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters
Oklahoma Ice Storm
Oklahoma Ice Storm
Ice Storm Pictures from Owasso, Oklahoma
storm damage
storm damage
My yard after losing over half of my tree during an icestorm.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Im ORIGINALLY from the San Francisco Bay area. Snow is about as common THERE as it is here, Drak. I moved to Ohio once...in December (silly me). One winter was ENOUGH for me
thanks Hades
501. BajaALemt 1:50 AM GMT on December 13, 2007
Im ORIGINALLY from the San Francisco Bay area. Snow is about as common THERE as it is here, Drak. I moved to Ohio once...in December (silly me). One winter was ENOUGH for me


lol. Make you appreciate Florida.
Baja there will be some low to mid 40s for you to enjoy the beggining of next week lol.
Absolutely. This is HOME. I love it here (Plus the weather is ALOT more interesting *laffs)
later
later w456
later 456
haha! I was seeing that. Looks like sunday/monday-ish. I have a great long leather swingcoat that I obviously dont get to wear too often. I think I'll be able to break that out *laffs*
nite 456
ADT doesn't think Olga is dead, lol.

CI# is up to 1.9 and pressure down to 1009.
i have to go as well. Night everyone.
Nite Drak
514. 0741
what is ADT ? Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page donot have it post
later drakoen
ADT

Evening StormW
Baja - are you still here? Had to take a kid shopping.
519. 0741
hi storm W
Link

Look on the page, you'll see ADT (Advanced Dvorak Technique)....also, MIMIC imagery on this page
Hi Storm - how are you?
Hiya Storm (nice to see you)
Watching the latest RAMSDIS loop, it looks like Olga continues to have a very strong circulation as convection has finally begun to build around the COC. The structure is still well-defined and organized. There is a small part of the center that has become exposed, but I expect that to be covered by some convection overnight. I still have faith in Olga to hold together long enough to bring some substantial rainfall to South and Central Florida. For all those people saying she is dead, I would wait for tomorrow morning to see whether she can take advantage of the diurnal maximum. I am not writing her off yet until I see the structure collapse and circulation open up.
hey Storm W, you still thinking Olgas moister will come over Florida?
528. 0741
is Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.2
and Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page same thing???????
Drak - I remember the snowfall in 77 - lived in St. Petersburg - the traffic in Tampa was terrible because of the way the highway exits bank - they weren't made for the slippery stuff!
Based upon the latest data from the ADT, it would appear as if Olga has begun to restrengthen. Very interesting.

Hey Storm, could you comment on my post? We could very well see her back up to tropical storm status tonight. She looks much better now that she has some convection around the center.
Thaxs Storm W we really need the rain here in zephyrhills Florida
Only 29.62 in in rain gauge this whole year
Sorry to hear that - much damage to your car?
Ouch, Storm
ADT is operated by CIMMS 0741, they update more often.
But yes, it's the same dvorak technique
Hope you're all right Storm!
I for one do not want tropical moisture this weekend - many things to do, and a friend's wedding in the keys. Somehow, Christmas decorations & tropical blob stuff don't mix!
541. 0741
cchsweatherman you still invited to olga funeral some time on thur iwill post it
That doesn't sound great - unfortunately it doesn't seem to take much damage to cause that.
People hate to be invited to an event and it continues to get postponed, 0741!
547. 0741
545. cchsweatherman 2:19 AM GMT on December 13, 2007
People hate to be invited to an event and it continues to get postponed, 0741
you first on list it be sometime on thur
549. 0741
why do Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page donot have post it???
Well although ADT numbers arent terribly low, SAB dvorak still calls this system "too weak" and since the center continues to lack significant deep convection and the system overall is disorganized, this may be enough to make the NHC issue a final advisory on Olga
553. 0741
12/2345 UTC 18.9N 77.2W TOO WEAK OLGA -- Atlantic Ocean it back on Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page
741, below the world map...you'll see ADT. Click that, then click the storm you want info on. It gives position and intensity (based on sat images)
Link

(See post 546...link > About Dvorak)
555. 0741
extreme236 i think same here
556. 0741
OLGA DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A FEW
SQUALLS...

10 pm is out

REPEATING THE 1000 PM EST POSITION...18.9 N...77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
558. 0741
you all invite to olga funeral at 10:15pm
lol...well, there it is there
560. 0741
cchsweatherman donot cry we will other season six month
LOL @ Avila......."famous last words"...A little sense of humor tonite
Well, I think we can finally now say the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season is over.
I was going to say the lack of the 8pm update was a tell tale sign the NHC was going to ditch Olga. Hopefully the remnants can bring the parched SE some rain.
564. 0741
ONCE AGAIN...I HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TERMINATE ANOTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS SEASON. he is REAL LIFE TERMINATER
Well there was no 8pm update because there were no watches/warnings in effect
Meteo-France has tropical disturbance 04R almost at Tropical depression strength
567. 0741
can someone check on cchsweatherman he depress
569. 0741
their some MOISTURE over bahamas let see how much get pull to west
Special Weather Bulletin for Southern Cook Island #5 [0230 AM UTC 13Dec]
===============================================

GALE WIND WARNING


The tropical depression located 75 kms north of Palmerston and 550 kms northwest of Rarotonga is slowly moving southeast with an intense high pressure system to the south of the group being near stationary

FOR PALMERSTON

Strong winds possibly reaching GALE FORCE WINDS with average speeds to 65 km/h with momentary gusts up to 90 km/h today.

FOR AITUTRAKI, MAUKE, RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS

Expect strong northeast to southeast winds possibly increasing to 65 km/h with momentary gusts up to 90 km/h for tonight. Widespread heavy rains. Squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas with damaging heavy swells developing. Sea flooding of low lying coastal areas expected.
439. Weather456 12:15 AM GMT on December 13, 2007
lindenii,

I tried to ingnore it but its too much. If you had as much sense as u claim you woundnt have said this season was a bust. Let us suppose they only named tropical cyclones. How the hell you are goin to tell the ppl who lost their love ones in Haiti and Central America that this season was a bust. This season is not over hyped. It was a deadily one and it only need 3 TC to make it so. You come on here with your "scientific nonsense" all the time. Science cannot replace the ppl who died this year in tropical cyclones. So I would advise to shut the crap up! and Merry Christmas.


First of all, no, I will not shut the crap up and you have no right to attempt to silence me. I must shut up because I have the temerity to disagree with all the intermingling of science and news hype? Shame on you.

Hurricanes are not living beings with minds of their own that 'attack' humans deliberately. They are storms...nothing more, nothing less. To muddy the scientific waters with sobbing tales of the loss of life as if that serves any purpose in the quest to better forcast storms is ludicrous to say the very least.

Death and destruction is a terrible thing that happens as a result of the storms, conversely, death and destruction is not the cause of the storms. Weather is the cause of the storms.

Years from now, when our memories regarding this year are dulled by time, the mis-identification of the intensity might cause an otherwise unbiased scientist to mistakenly discount an observation and subsequent conclusion that might have resulted in an altogether new way of looking at tropical weather which could have prevented the future death and destruction you seem to insist on wringing your hands about today.

Co-mingling data and news is simply irresponsible.

With an ACE somewhere near 70, the season was a bust, a hiccup at best. Now on to the part where we find out why.
With an ACE somewhere near 70, the season was a bust, a hiccup at best. Now on to the part where we find out why.

How does ACE make a season a bust?

Put it this way if you are going to be this stupid: If one of your closest family members died from even a tropical storm, would you be calling this season a bust? Most certainly not.

You are stupid to say otherwise.
Hurricane seasons are rated by the actual number of storms and ACE, not by how many deaths there were. Now taking into account the number of storms and the ACE numbers to me this season was about average. Not exactly a bust, but not as crazy as some predicted it would be earlier this year. I see the point lindenii is making.
561. BajaALemt 2:35 AM GMT on December 13, 2007
LOL @ Avila......."famous last words"...A little sense of humor tonite



Forecaster Avila is my personal favorite.

I do have another friend who does discussions from time to time:

Christopher Landsea


The hurricane expert who stood up to UN junk science


You're a respected scientist, one of the best in your field. So respected, in fact, that when the United Nations decided to study the relationship between hurricanes and global warming for the largest scientific endeavour in its history -- its International Panel on Climate Change -- it called upon you and your expertise.

You are Christopher Landsea of the Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory. You were a contributing author for the UN's second International Panel on Climate Change in 1995, writing the sections on observed changes in tropical cyclones around the world. Then the IPCC called on you as a contributing author once more, for its "Third Assessment Report" in 2001. And you were invited to participate yet again, when the IPCC called on you to be an author in the "Fourth Assessment Report." This report would specifically focus on Atlantic hurricanes, your specialty, and be published by the IPCC in 2007.

Then something went horribly wrong. Within days of this last invitation, in October, 2004, you discovered that the IPCC's Kevin Trenberth -- the very person who had invited you -- was participating in a press conference. The title of the press conference perplexed you: "Experts to warn global warming likely to continue spurring more outbreaks of intense hurricane activity." This was some kind of mistake, you were certain. You had not done any work that substantiated this claim. Nobody had.

As perplexing, none of the participants in that press conference were known for their hurricane expertise. In fact, to your knowledge, none had performed any research at all on hurricane variability, the subject of the press conference. Neither were they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability, you knew, showed no reliable upward trend in the frequency or intensity of hurricanes. Not in the Atlantic basin. Not in any other basin.


Even if that is the case, just because meteorologists count ACE, doesn't mean I do. And I'm not some clueless weather idiot, either.

Besides, does it really matter if the season was a so-called "bust"? Nobody has to be a jerk about it and show their butt, do they (thankfully you didn't, Bob).

I don't see how, regardless of what classifies a season as what, that everyone can say even ONE TIME that this season is a bust, with all the death and destruction. Seriously, have some compassion here people.
438. extreme236 12:13 AM GMT on December 13, 2007

The ACE was low becasue of the short lived storms...there is nothing to be curious about there. Also, our two cat 5's resulted in a combined total of nearly 50 ACE. Is that not high enough for cat 5's...I think that is pretty high.


Actually you proved my point quite nicely. Two Cat5 storms with a combined ACE of 50...that means that all the rest of the storms amounted to an ACE of 20?

Yeah, that amounts to a bust.

Death and destruction did not cause the storms, it was part of the aftermath of the storms' existence. Co-mingling data and news hype is not going to contribute to the discover of better prediction models. If anything it will delay it.
Oh I think people have compassion for the people that suffered, I would hope that do. But I believe that he/she is strictly looking at the ACE numbers and those numbers show it was below average this season.
As for the season not being as bad as it was hyped to be, I agree, which is why we should not pay attention to the pre-season outlooks, since numbers don't matter anyway.

If anyone here truly understood that numbers don't matter, then they would not call this season a bust at all. Dean, Felix, and Noel caused widespread death and destruction in the Carribean.

Does anyone here wanna bet me one even better? Here goes. If 2007 would have had Dean or Felix hit the U.S. as a Category 5, NO ONE would be calling this season a bust. Not one person. Because why? It hit the U.S. STL is definitely right when he says that. There is no justification to say otherwise.

Heck, nobody is satisfied unless Andrew or Katrina type storms hit the Gulf Coast every year. If they even hit the U.S. East Coast like Isabel, they'd quickly be forgotten. It's always the Gulf Coast that counts. Nothing more.
L doesn't make points he trys to provoke discord on the blog please do not mention that name I never activate my ignore feature without a reason.
But I believe that he/she is strictly looking at the ACE numbers and those numbers show it was below average this season.

But does it really matter if it was below average?
Even if that is the case, just because meteorologists count ACE, doesn't mean I do. And I'm not some clueless weather idiot, either.


There you have it weatherguy03! LOL!
I think alot of people were letdown by the very slow October and November. All of the "experts" were calling for an active end to our season.
I think alot of people were letdown by the very slow October and November. All of the "experts" we calling for an active end to our season.

And I myself thought their forecast was a bust from the start. Maybe not at first, but then I realized after the first couple weeks of October, how are we going to get 4 storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane in October and November?

Interestingly enough, shear took a major rise in September and October with the troughs and the upper-level lows we had, which halted any significant storms from developing during those months.
There you have it weatherguy03! LOL!

What are you implying? Are you going to be a jerk too?

At least Bob is talking civil. I commend him for that.
Vort? I got a kick out of his sense of humor. And...nice links, thanks. I'll have to read through more of them over my coffee in the morning.
Well for the meteorologists that will be studying why the ACE was below average this season it matters.
Bob is never civil....but what would I know?

I'm a clueless weather idiot!
Yeah it wasn't going to happen. Alot of people were fixed on La Nina and the MJO and weren't looking at the big picture.
574. KoritheMan 3:14 AM GMT on December 13, 2007

How does ACE make a season a bust?

Put it this way if you are going to be this stupid: If one of your closest family members died from even a tropical storm, would you be calling this season a bust? Most certainly not.

You are stupid to say otherwise.


What you are suggesting is that the loss of a close family member due to even a tropical storm would cause me to lose my objectivity.

You are absolutely correct. And in that event, I would respectfully recuse myself from participation until I regained my composure and was able to return to my former objectivity.

Are you using Babel Fish to interpret for you because the word 'stupid' simply doesn't fit in this context.
456, we get it! people died, God bless them and their families
The physical world is an amazing thing. Take blood pressures for example. Average....is 120/80. But there are plenty of factors that influence what "average" is for a particular individual and quite a few folks fall above or below the "average" even within their own lifespan. I like to think the world around us works kind of like the one inside us *smiles*....except that I think we understand more about the internal mechanisms....than we do about the external ones :D
Hey, Kori. I agree, the season is not a bust when even ONE storm causes damage and death, be it in the US or elsewhere!

It may be a bust for the statisticians or the Monday morning weather QB's, but not to the people whose lives were effected.

Good post, thanks!
Again, it depends on what numbers you look at. If you strictly look at ACE then it was a below average season, if you look at the actual number of storms then it was alittle above average.
Bureau of Meteorology - Perth

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (13December)
================================
(1) Central South Indian Ocean

A weak low is evident near 6.0S 93.0E. Although the low is likely to be in an unfavorable environment for significant development in the short term there are indications that prospects for intensification may improve later in the week. The low is expected to drift south over open waters in the vincinity of 10.0S 90-95E.

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
=====================================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: HIGH
Again, one storm, one life - it matters, and is not a bust. The tropics are dangerous. When we start equating danger to quantitative statistics, the "real" index is forgotten - the human element. No statistics can outweigh that.
598. JLPR
well i see Olga is still around but without decent convection we should see whats left fade away i guess
although Olga still has a nice circulation
599. JLPR
well im away again unless another system forms which is unlikely or if Olga regenerates

till something forms :P
Well thats how we study things here in the meteorology world is by numbers. We don't have a death index, we have the ACE index. I go strictly by meteorological numbers. I am not in the business to count deaths. Again, all deaths are sad whether its because of the latest ice storm or by a tropical system.
Have a good sleep, JLPR! Glad you dodged the bullet down there! But, hey, a new season will be here all too soon!
595. weatherguy03 3:38 AM GMT on December 13, 2007
Again, it depends on what numbers you look at. If you strictly look at ACE then it was a below average season, if you look at the actual number of storms then it was alittle above average.


You stopped short.

Now take a look at the ACE number and compare it to the actual number of storms in the season. If you really want to scratch your head, subtract the 50 from the ACE of 70 which gives you 20...now divide that number by the number of storms minus the 2 Cat5 storms and look at that number for a moment. Quick math computation seems to suggest an ACE of less that 2 for each of the rest of the storms.

The $64,000 quesion is...why? What set of circumstances were a work that the ACE was so small and the actual number of named storms was so high? The modeling would appear to be somewhat in need of serious revamping.

Is it really accurate to believe that the actual number of named storms is a true measure of the intensity of a season or is it an artifact of earlier times and should be relegated to the dustbin of antiquity?

Personally, I believe that the modeling is in serious need of restructuring. That and the need to work on eliminating the news bias which obfuscates the data.
Well the actually number of storms were high because a few of the storms should not have been named.

593. BajaALemt 10:35 PM EST on December 12, 2007

Well put. And just as ones blood pressure is a very important measurement when gaging a persons health it is not the whole story. When making the kind of heroic real world application that the folks at LSU were able to provide to Bangladesh wind intensity was surely one of the variables but far from the only one they used I am sure. The value of a measurement varies with the application.
That may well be the problem with meteorology and science: It's forgotten that deaths occur - even when it's one storm and one life. Is it only catastrophe when 1000's die? To say the season is a bust when it falls below the "meterologist's" statistics is poor human compassion.

Humans are more than numbers. Anyone that's lost a loved one, friend or neighbor will tell you that.
Arrgh!!

Is it really that late?

Time to get my...well, it's time to get some rest. See you tommorrow.
Meteorologists are compassionate folk, don't worry MLC, just look at our own Dr. Masters.
Agreed, Shen....another piece of the puzzle *shrugs*
607. vortfix 10:52 PM EST on December 12, 2007

Amen and thanks

Good night all
Evening everybody,

I see we are back to beating this dead horse again.

Real scientists wouldn't be using such an unscientific term as "bust" to describe a season in the first place.

In the second place, "bust" is an OPINION. What you base your opinion on may be different from what someone else does; therefore your definition of "bust" will also differ. That's why lin has been claiming to be "scientific" when he says ACE proves a bust.

I'm being pedantic here. Nobody who says this season is not a "bust" based on storm numbers, types of landfalls, or even death toll, all potential measures of "bust" would be incorrect to do so. ACE is only one measurement (and, in fact, the ONLY one) that is below average - which is not the same as "bust". Low ACE does not mitigate against the other average and above average measurements of this season's activities.

This brings me to my final comment. 2004 had the same number of storms as this year. It had only one cat 5 storm, which made landfall only as a cat 3. Was 2004 a "bust" season? If not, why not?
Amen back atcha Shen.....lol.
Evenin BaHa.....good to see you
I'm not worried, 03. Not at all. Folks here know how, I at least, stand. The Doctor's effort to communicate weather and warnings are very knowledgeable, noble and extremely compassionate.

But, the raging "scientific" and "meteorological" raging aspect of the global warming issue, insurance underwriting and real estate prospecting behind human heartache, have taken "real forecasting" beyond the scope of the "real human" element. Just read the news -- there you'll find "statistics." Ask someone who's lost their home, or can't afford to renew their insurance because of "statistics."

Nope, again, the season is never a bust even when only one life is taken. No statistics qualify that.

Stats drive the scientific world, thats why we had to take 50 Math classes in college!!..LOL But yeah it does cloud some issues, especially the dumb GW one!
olga is gone but not forgotten she'll be swept up by a front to bomb on the backside of the appalachian mountains good luck with that.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL GOOD LUCK IN 2008
I'm glad you agree, O3.

It's late. I'm out, all. Have a good sleep!
Hey Baja.

Just looking in at Olga. We have Junior Junkanoo tomorrow, and I'm hoping we don't get enough rain from Olga to make a difference. (The costumes are mostly crepe paper and cardboard . . . .)
604. weatherguy03 10:51 PM EST on December 12, 2007
Well the actually number of storms were high because a few of the storms should not have been named.


And these are??
I personally don't care about the ACE; what is the difference between a storm that explodes into a monster Cat 5 in a day or so and one that takes a week to do so, and both make landfall? To me, even one Cat 5 is more significant than anything else, namely because they are getting more common (everybody knows about Cat 4-5s doubling in frequency over the last few decades, I focus more on Cat 5s, the most extreme storms, whcih have become so common that 25% of them occurred in the last 5 years alone, which is so high that even missed storms in the past can't possibly account for the difference, not to mention that some past Cat 5s were likely not really Cat 5s, like Ethel).

Also the ACE is not considered to be below average because a normal season has a range of ACE values and this year falls within that range.
Also, I wouldn't be surprised if next year is similar to this year:



Notice both a La Nina and cooler than normal water in the Atlantic, like this year, which was the main reason for the low ACE (most of the storms developed in the Gulf and Caribbean; indeed, 2005 had only half as many storms develop in the Gulf, also notice that the water was still pretty warm there, the Caribbean probably would have been even warmer if two Cat 5s hadn't gone through it):



I also hope that by now everybody realizes that the United States isn't going to be hit by major storms every year, 2004 and 2005 aside, they were pretty rare, even with the above average storm numbers since 1995 (between 1997 and 2003, only one major hit the U.S., and it caused less deaths and probably less damage than Erin due to its small size and landfall in an unpopulated area). Of course, next year MIGHT be different if my analogy to 1988-1989 holds true (1988 was very similar to this year, a few strong storms with the rest being relatively weak, a strong La Nina, major damage in the Caribbean but little impact in the U.S., rather cool Atlantic SSTs; 1989 by contrast had the worst hurricane to hit the U.S. up to then).
'89 was Hugo, right?
Here is Hugo [1989], a cat 5, with only 82 deaths to its credit, compared with Noel, which caused over 300 deaths. From a Bahamian perspective, Noel may actually be the hurricane of memory. It's hard to remove the human element from hurricane discussions.
1989 was also one of the analog years that Gray used to make his forecast for next year, of course, there is no way to tell if that is what will happen next year, although this year was very similar to 1988, even down to where the strongest storms made landfall (Dean was similar to Gilbert, just a little weaker at peak intensity, and Felix was similar to Joan, except stronger; the U.S. only had a few tropical storms and a Cat 1 hurricane, which even became a hurricane just hours before landfall, like Humberto, except it was futher east; 1988 did have a higher ACE, but that was mostly because it had an additional major hurricane).
In the meantime a NorEaster Wow Dr.Masters rough stuff! Thanks for the encouraging update on Olga.
Also the ACE is not considered to be below average because a normal season has a range of ACE values and this year falls within that range.

What?
hey all just got home from running claims here in my own neighborhood, lol
626. sporteguy03 5:10 AM GMT on December 13, 2007
In the meantime a NorEaster Wow Dr.Masters rough stuff!

------


LOL

We still have a major snowstorm to go through tomorrow.

6-10" of snow is nothing to sneeze at.
we have 400000 without power and the tree damage is on par for a cat 5 hurricane. we will be cleaning this up for months. I hope to get power back by saturday and that will be 7 days without.
It looks to me like shear around Olga has dropped like a rock. Is there something I'm missing?
well im headed to bed hope all is well elsewhere. night
It's not all about the current technology that allows us to name storms.
It's about the historical sway that technology has:

Any inconsistencies in the naming of tropical storms and hurricanes have significance far beyond semantics.

The number of a season's named storms forms the foundation of historical records used to determine trends in hurricane activity. Insurance companies use these trends to set homeowners' rates. And such information is vital to scientists trying to determine whether global warming has had a measurable impact on hurricane activity.

627. vortfix 11:07 PM CST on December 12, 2007
Also the ACE is not considered to be below average because a normal season has a range of ACE values and this year falls within that range.

What?



A season's ACE is used to categorize the hurricane season by its activity. NOAA categorisation system[3] divides them into:

Above-normal season: An ACE value above 103 (115% of the current median), provided at least two of the following three parameters exceed the long-term average: number of tropical storms (10), hurricanes (6), and major hurricanes (2).
Near-normal season: neither above-normal nor below normal
Below-normal season: An ACE value below 66 (74% of the current median)


The ACE for 2007 is currently at 68.1, pending reanalysis of the remaining storms (if the peak winds of Dean or Felix are increased even slightly that would add quite a few points). Also note that in order for a season to be considered above average, the number of storms, hurricane or major hurricanes (at least two of these) also has to be above average, so you can have an above average ACE but a near-average season if it has a near or below average number of storms, which is the opposite of this year.
No amount of re-evaluation can make this season's ACE value even near normal and you know that.
Given the number of named storms......with an ACE value this low......it gives me pause.

Thinking who benefits from whatever part of that might be a factor regarding financial gain.

I won't argue the point, but financial gain is more a factor here than most weatherheads can comprehend.
I still don't care, even a season that had just one storm would be more significant than a season with 50 tropical storms if that one storm was a Cat 5 hurricane (that is a big difference between 1933 and 2005, 1933 might of had more storms if you account for missed storms but none were Cat 5s). Also, Gray uses NTC instead of ACE to measure activity - and that was very close to normal, not surprising becuse NTC does measure a lot more than how long storms lasted.

They ought to also start including Cat 5s in an "average" season, since they have become common enough so that you can expect an average of one a season as well as extending it through December.

There should also be an analysis of the global weather patterns this year to try to find out why storms have lasted for shorter than usual periods of time in just about every ocean basin, most notably Australia's 2006-2007 season which had an average number of storms, including stronger storms, but a far below average ACE index (call the Atlantic ACE below average if you want, but it wasn't like less than half of the average, with an average ACE of only 3 per storm, despite having three major hurricanes).

The trend also started in 2005, which did set a new record for ACE, but it needed more than twice as many storms as the previous record season (1950) to do so, thus was only average in ACE per storm, and even then it needed a late December storm to set a new record.
The whole deal is now this way........


“Air and water are simply no longer the ‘free goods’ that economists once assumed,” Sandor said in a 1992 interview with the Wall Street Journal. “They must be redefined as property rights so they can be efficiently allocated.”

At a 2005 Milken Institute Conference, Sandor said, “The right to use water or air is more valuable than food, and we can use the price system to allocate that right.”



Keep naming storms.......


and insurance rates will continue to rise.

is this a politcal blog cause thats what it sounds like
The trend also started in 2005, which did set a new record for ACE, but it needed more than twice as many storms as the previous record season (1950) to do so, thus was only average in ACE per storm, and even then it needed a late December storm to set a new record.


That's called an anomaly....definitely not any trend.
Keeper, hey man, you know there's politics in everything - even the weather!
Hey, Sully! Looks like the snow is coming your way! Watch out! Weatherman says 24 here this weekend, yikes!
638. vortfix 6:02 AM GMT on December 13, 2007

Keep naming storms.......
and insurance rates will continue to rise.


...yep, I think we've seen that happen. Lawsuits, too!
i know mlc its just that it goes on and on andon but never no point cause both sides are right just cant agree
Keeper, there's a bunch of good folks on this blog. No doubt. Folks with good knowledge. I just try to read and discern what interests me and go from there. Some of it I pay very close attention - other times, I just pass by.

Still, it's a great site. Great blog. Smart folks with a passion for weather. And, that's cool by me. Even cool weather! lol
Lawsuits, too!


You can't be saying litigation could happen because of rising insurance rates and unnecesarily named storms?

My goodness....what is happening?


Just ask Dickie Scruggs! Trouble in MS!
MLC,

Oh yeah!

I'm looking foward to it too. Still have snowpack from December 2nd. After these two beasts, could be snowpack until at least February, barring some major January thaw.

I don't think the polar jet will allow that this year. Northern jet has been too quick and should continue to be too quick to allow for any prolonged warm-up over the northerntier states. So any January thaw, and I think that we will get one, will be short-lived. That ridge over the Southeast will flex its muscles once in awhile and with this ongoing La nina it shouldn't go disappearing.

I'm very interested in seeing how this Nor'easter plays out.

I mean, how often do remnants of tropical storms become incorporated into Nor'easters...in December.

If everything comes together just right, some place in the southern Adirondacks will stagger away from this one with 3 feet. Just looking at the 00Z Canadian Global run would send shivers down a snow lovers spine living in Saratoga.
Max will hate me for this:



Some meteorologists, including former hurricane center director Neil Frank, say as many as six of this year's 14 named tropical systems might have failed in earlier decades to earn "named storm" status.

"They seem to be naming storms a lot more than they used to," said Frank, who directed the hurricane center from 1974 to 1987 and is now chief meteorologist for KHOU-TV. "This year, I would put at least four storms in a very questionable category, and maybe even six."

I was listening to a Professor today on a radio show, and I have to agree with him....Why does Gray or whomever even post a pre-season forecast???

They can't name a date or landfall, and have REALLY missed the mark...Answers anyone?

So what good does it do?
of coarse mlc i meant no disrespect its a great blog with a lot of good people i my self just lurking but leaving soon nuttin happening with former ogla except turning into a blizzard later on sat night sun mon
im gone
I guess I 'killed' the blog...G'nite everyone!!!
Hello everyone! Sully...I got a bunch of mets freakin out over here! whats you out look on this 1-2" per hour thing they keep yammering about for tomorrow here on the east end of Lake Erie??? I thought we were only supposed to get brushed...
RISK PROFILING, SouthernLady. You know this:

The CLUE report and the insurance scoring system are tools insurers use to decide your risk profile, that is, how likely you are to file a claim against your policy. Insurers feed information about paid claims - perhaps even your inquiries about coverage that do not result in a claim - into a national database for use by insurers. Information included in the database, along with your insurance score, makes up your risk profile. Insurers use the profile to decide whether you get new insurance. At renewal time, your current insurer will probably review your claims history as well as your current insurance score to set your premiums - even to decide if you get to keep the insurance you have.


-- SULLY, WOW! That will indeed be something. I hope it's just snow and not extreme blizzard, harmful stuff. Yep, GR8 for skiers! Wish I was sking!

-- Keeper, didn't think you were dis-respecting at all. I know after the tropic season, seems to get dull. But, hey, there's some great winter weather folks on here, too. Blizzard stuff. Severe weather, tornadic. I plan to try and learn more in the off season here! Hang around!

SL....Dr. gray has a 95% degree of accuracy regarding his seasonal forecasts.

If you have a problem with the three day forecast....ask NOAA why there is no funding for higher resolution models.
Thank you.
lol...I didnt plan that...
There's talk that this Nor'easters gonna pack a wallop by us, too...
How can a model change so fast with no discourse and still be "ok" for everyone? (the NAM had a little freakout today) How do you manage to forecast with this stuff going on?
Sub Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Mauritius

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04R ALERT NUMBER FOUR - ISSUED AT 06:00 AM UTC

===============================================

As of 0600 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance located near 14.6S 68.6E or 1530 kms east-northeast of Reunion coast has 10 min sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The system is reported moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.8S 68.4E - 30 knots
24 HRS: 15.0S 68.2E - 30 knots

Additional Information
=======================
The low level circulation center is still badly defined at this early stage of development. Las night Quikscat swath and Microwave NOAA15 shows an elongated circulation from the main low level circulation center towards the northeast. Environmental conditions is poorly favorable. In low levels, equatorward convergence is good but is weaker on the tradewind side. A mid-latitude trough that should pass south of the system within the next 36 hours should maintain poor inflow on this side. In high level, poleward outflow is well defined associated with a northwest subtropical jet. Equatorward, east-northeasterly vertical wind shear seems to decrease since the recent past hours. NWP models are in agreement to let the system in the same area during the next 48 hours undergoing opposite steering flow in the mid-levels (Westerlies in the north, southerlies in the east, and northwesterlies in the south)

The system should track slowly globally southwestwards during the next 48 hours as it lightly intensifies and then is expected to recurve more westward accelerating.
A little rain, snow, ice....yeah, winter weather.


Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
So true!!! They make 'seasonal' forecast with 'no time stamp' or landfall data...wonder how much they spend on that??? That 'worthless money' could be spent on 3 to 5 day forecasts! LOL
I must defer to Cowboy for the explanation regarding the CSU funding SL.
notice how the "severe drought" region is also the "heavy rain" region in vortifix's map? Last time I checked, thats not so good. I mean they need rain, but not flash floods and mudslides......I'll stop complaining about snow now...
I'm not so sure about Dr. Gray now....what does knowing that 10 or so hurricanes might form at the beginning of the season help if you can't pin-point them "some-what"...other than helping insurance companies and 'tweaking' vacations? Then changing the "stats" AFTER the year is over...

Remember the hotel owner that was going to sue him this year??? LOL


There's a narrow area of frontogenic forcing that develops around 700mb right along the NY/PA border on the eastern shores of Lake Erie.
we have to have that precip in the SE....please bring it.
Actually NO Lake! If you look close the 'green'/wet line runs over the top of the worse of that region! SAD!!!
Remember the hotel owner that was going to sue him this year??? LOL


I don't remember that.............lol.
Yes you do!!! ROTFL!
Sully, Thats too south to get to me, any chance of it drifting north about 30 or so miles? Otherwise that's ski country. They live for this stuff.
Yes you do!!! ROTFL!


Oh no I don't.........
Defer? Man, that one is too hot for me! Is that private funding?
Sully, What's the time frame on that graphic please.
yes, So. Lady..I do believe that map states a grim fate for a parched ground.
Man its amazing, these storms when the loom...they have potential to do so much damage and all we can really do is prepare and wait... Be merciful, dear mother nature!!!
Special Weather Bulletin for Southern Cook Island #6 [5:30 AM UTC 13Dec]
===============================================

GALE WIND WARNING

The tropical depression located 66 kms north of Palmerston and 545 kms northwest of Rarotonga is slowly moving southeast with an intense high pressure system to the south of the group being near stationary, Damaging Gale Force Winds could develop over Southern Cook Island.

FOR PALMERSTON

Strong winds possibly reaching GALE FORCE WINDS with average speeds to 65 km/h with momentary gusts up to 90 km/h today.

FOR AITUTRAKI, MAUKE, RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS

Expect strong northeast to southeast winds possibly increasing to 65 km/h with momentary gusts up to 90 km/h for tonight. Widespread heavy rains. Squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas with damaging heavy swells developing. Sea flooding of low lying coastal areas expected.
Hmmm...I distinctively remember someone telling me about that when it first 'surfaced'....LOL
Is that private funding?



Nice Cowboy!

Dr. Gray does not require no stinking funding!
That's why he is so accurate.

Is anyone getting the real picture yet?
Lake,

If you're north of that band then you should only get 3-4 inches. You may get a heavier burst, for an hour or so. If that band works its way up to you for a couple of hours, then maybe a 5 or 6 inch accumulation is more likely for you.

But the heaviest snows should be confined to this band as it works its way eastwards along the NY/PA border.
Vort, I'll do a little research into that later...Peaks my interest!!! LOL
"Everyone" has to have 'funding!'...The question is from whom???
Vort,

5am this morning.
Everyone" has to have 'funding!'...The question is from whom???


That's always the big question these days....and it should be.

Dr. Gray's funding is as clean as anyone else's.

Check him out.....he won't mind. Actually he doesn't give one sh*t!
thanks sully. thats kind of what I projected, but the local mets and the NWS are issuing severe snow warnings from 7am to 7pm and are talking about 1 foot in the southern hills. (6" in my neck of the woods)
btw...if you're from mid PA to South, you should understand that 3" of snow is really nothing. life goes on, schools are open. even with 6". Get closer to a foot and things start to close. perhaps in the southern (relative to b-lo) mnts. this happens too?
OK, thanks Sully.
Dr. Gray's funding is as clean as anyone else's.

Check him out.....he won't mind. Actually he doesn't give one sh*t!


That's what's scary!!! Nobody seems too!!!

Money, money, MONEY!!!! That's all that matters now.....
Yeah, I'm expected about a widespread 10" down here in Sullivan Co.

I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere such as Liberty or Roscoe got close to a foot.

With the kind of dynamics that will be sliding through going to work on 0.75" PW's, somewhere should get a 2 hour burst of some 2-3"/hr type snowfall.
CONUS weather....how exciting!

Tropical stuff gets really boring.

I'm a real CONUS person....let's work!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...WRN/SCENTRAL PA...FAR NRN WV/WRN MARYLAND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 130655Z - 131230Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP NWD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. HRLY ACCUMULATIONS RATES UP TO 0.05
INCH LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 12Z.

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF RAIN MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AT 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR FINDLAY OH SEWD TO NEAR PIT AND INTO FAR WRN MD.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA NOTED BY 1-2 MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS OVER
CENTRAL IND/WRN OH /AIDED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET/ WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED RAPID NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION INTO AREAS THAT
ARE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS. A FAIRLY DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD
AIRMASS FROM THE SFC TO NEAR 700 MB WILL INITIALLY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS/RATES...BUT AS THE STRONGEST WAA OVERSPREADS THE
REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...SUFFICIENT SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
PRECIP RATES. DESPITE THE STRENGTH IN THE WAA...WET BULB EFFECTS
SHOULD AID IN A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE LOCATION OF THE 06Z SFC
FREEZING LINE. THE DEPTH OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE GREATEST
OVER MOST OF NRN OH...FAR NRN WV/SWRN PA AND WRN MD WHERE FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE THROUGH 12Z. FURTHER
NE...OVER FAR NERN OH...MOST OF WRN AND SCENTRAL PA A MIX OF SLEET
AND OR MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10-12Z WHERE THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER WILL BE MORE LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT.

..CROSBIE.. 12/13/2007



I always found the word CONUS rather well... funny. (like as in "you're such a CONUS!) Other than refering to the general N. American region, what does it mean?
so Sully this is going to be heavy, slushy stuff?
You might want to read this WHOLE article...Link
ContiNental United States
Not slushy, but packable.

Temps will be in the upper 20's, so it won't really be a wet snow. But it won't be dry either, somewhere's in between. Like the kind that makes those funny half crunch/half squeek noises underfoot.
LMAO!

It's not Coonass....It's CONUS.

Continental United States!
I don't want to read any more articles SL....sorry.
Thanx, So.Lady... Makes a bunch of sense, now dont it?
-- SL, GR8 article. Some very useful stuff in there, thanks!
If you want to defend Gray, might want to read that one....You read articles EVERYDAY!!! LOL


Hi-res WRF has my area in a .50"/3hr bullseye between 1 and 4 this afternoon.
sully I'm sure there's an Alaskan Inuit word for that snow sentiment...I wonder what it is.
I'm not reading any more articles tonight......He he he.
I read too many that Cowboy posted already.
Thanks...

Maybe this clip will peak your interest Vort!

Acknowledgment

We are grateful to the National Science Foundation (NSF) and Lexington Insurance Company (a member of the American International Group (AIG)) for providing partial support for the research necessary to make these forecasts.� We also thank the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State College (MA) for their assistance in developing the Landfalling Hurricane Probability Webpage (available online at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane).

And this is the Low wave that comes BEFORE the big one hits on Saturday???
Lake,

You just gave me a good idea.

Learn those Inuit words for those different types of snow. That would be very useful...

There really are so many different types...come to think of it.
We are grateful to the National Science Foundation (NSF) and Lexington Insurance Company (a member of the American International Group (AIG)) for providing partial support for the research necessary to make these forecasts


Dang it...just partial support!
Aw...I can't believe you are reading 'equestrian' articles posted by 'cowboy'..LOL
Anytime, sully, anytime! :o)
"Dang it...just partial support!"
ROTFL!!!
Life sucks....and then your homeowners insurance rate rises.......Shut up SL!
sully, It would help to clarify things a bit, using the Inuit words. all the different densities of snow have different affects on property and such. even with the over all snow totals..the fluffy stuff really isnt more snow, its just 2 inches more because of air infusion, and so forth
dear vort...remember the ignore button!
I don't like sequestering articles! lol
Sorry to 'bust your bubble' Vort!!! You know I'm a 'researcher'...LOL
Lake, if Vort 'ignores' me, he's in a heap of trouble!! ROTFL
That's for sure.

I remember during the Blizzard of 1996 we had this snow that was so light and whispy.

After the plow came by in the morning we had another 12-15" by afternoon and one could walk through this stuff as though they were walking through a room full of balloons.
I don't like sequestering articles! lol

The word was 'equestrian'....I thought you were a "cowboy!" LOL
Lake, if Vort 'ignores' me, he's in a heap of trouble!! ROTFL


Yikes!!!!!!!!!!!!
...equestrian sequestering! Just a fancy way of saying "putting the horse in the barn!"

It's about that time! lol
yeah and I remember the "October Surprise" storm of 2006.. The snow was literally slush and destroyed 40,000 trees and left over 90,000 people out of power for ten days. I remember cheering at the convoy of utility trucks from Georgia...
Could have been helpful to know the grade of that snow ahead of time...
Yep, same here!!! Hope there aren't any mice in the barn!!! LOL

Ya'll have a good one!!!
Just a fancy way of saying "putting the horse in the barn!"


That's not like the Salami...no....I didn't think so.
she seems serious Vort...
I'm scared.. :-0
That's not like the Salami...no....I didn't think so.
I guess it depends on what state your from....
NO Vort!!! Get some sleep!!! I AM serious! LOL
When we had our great Christmas 1989 snow it was quite light and fluffy--the daytime high temperature was 19 degrees so it was not slushy, heavy or wet. The snow was hard and icy near the ground for an inch or two, just because the ground was not frozen. And very fluffy, blowing around above that. In March 1980 and March 1986, we had about 1/2 to 1 inch of snow fall when it was near freezing, and it was wet and slushy. After theMarch 1980 snow it was very cold and the slushy snow froze into an icy rind on everything. In 1986 it warmed quickly--the snow fell from about 4 to 7 in the morning. It was a little heavier than the 1980 snow, but it was still slushy and by 11 am it was in the upper 50s and sunny, and not a trace of snow was around.
she seems serious Vort...


ROFL!
ok, I'm gonna get some ZZZ's...I got a system to watch in the morning. Clouds are starting to creep in now...
have a good night.
catch you on your blog, sully!
Simon, you can count all your snow events on one hand, huh?
Yeah, I remember the great snowstorm in South
Florida.

If you weren't really looking......you don't remember it. Nassau in the Bahamas had more than we received.

And it was really fluffy snow......none of that NE slushy stuff...LOL!
Yes Sully we can :)

3.4" Feb 1895
1.5" Feb 1958
6.6" Dec 22-23 1989
1.8" Dec 25 1989 (early)




Close to a full latitude front!
We already have more than that this year...lol

You poor poor souls...
Good Morning,


RSMC - METEO FRANCE - Southwest Indian Ocean - Tropical Disturbance 04R

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone 06S

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1000 HPA.
POSITION LE 13 DECEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 14.6 SUD / 68.6 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES SIX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1530 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 15S/68.2E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.6S/67.4E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 16.3S/64.8E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.


Expose LLC
Morning Folks.

Everyone ready for the SNOW :)
Get ready for some warming:

U.S. prevails on climate draft, Ban says:

The U.N. chief asserts that the text emanating from the Bali summit won't include specific targets for lowering greenhouse gas emissions.
By Alan Zarembo and Thomas H. Maugh II, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers

December 13, 2007
NUSA DUA, INDONESIA -- As the United Nations climate conference here was drawing to its conclusion, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Wednesday acknowledged that the United States' goal of deleting specific emission reduction guidelines from a draft agreement had succeeded.
"Realistically, it may be too ambitious if delegations would be expected to be able to agree on targets of greenhouse gas emission reductions" here in Bali, he told reporters. "Practically speaking, this will have to be negotiated down the road."

The Bali meeting was convened to draw up a "road map" for negotiations on a new treaty to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which is set to expire in 2012. An early draft of the guidelines called for industrialized countries to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020, but the Bush administration has resisted the inclusion of any targets.

Chief U.S. negotiator Harlan L. Watson reiterated that position Wednesday. "The reality in this business is that once numbers appear in the text, it prejudges the outcome and will tend to drive the negotiations in one direction," he said.
What do you expect from a Big Oil Man. Hes watching his wallet not the environment.
Olgas sleeping and so are our forum members.
I'm sorry you had to post such an opinionated response Bonedog.
I only posted the information and purposely made my personal view absent.
why are you sorry?

Its not an opinion its a fact.

Look at this administrations track record on the environment.

I hope whoever makes office in 08 actually cares about the future of our world.
why are you sorry?


I'm really not!

Just being polite.

If you could shed your personal opinions you would see....as many millions have that the agreement to disagree regarding the UN stance in Bali is the best for the Planet and the US.


Good morning all! Getting ready for some decent rainfall in South Florida today through Sunday. Like I stated yesterday, I believe that we will see a strong squall line develop out ahead of the front.

Taking a look at the remnants of Olga, I still think that it could regenerate since the circulation still looks quite strong and convection has increased around the circulation. Like someone mentioned, if you take a look at satellite loops, it would appear as if wind shear has decreased throughout the night. Is anyone else seeing this?

Well, going to go get some breakfast now. Be back in a few.
just basing my statment on the article posted.

the United States' goal of deleting specific emission reduction guidelines from a draft agreement had succeeded.

Seems according to that statment that the only folks that wanted it deleted was the US.

Other countries do want emission standards put in stone but the two biggest polluters(us and china) dont because it means they would have to spend alot more money on clean technologies. Which when looking at business practices inflicts the biggest burden on the industries that make the most cash; oil,energy production, manufacturing.

When folks begin to realize that our and other governments are actually run by lobbyests and not by the people things might start changing.

One problem though is the average Joe doesnt have the cash backing to get his or her voice heard.
This is and always has been the problem.....I respect the firm stance personally....but I'm trying to not get personal:


Chief U.S. negotiator Harlan L. Watson reiterated that position Wednesday. "The reality in this business is that once numbers appear in the text, it prejudges the outcome and will tend to drive the negotiations in one direction," he said.

Good morning Storm! If you could, could you comment on my post above. Thanks in advance.

How are your back and neck this morning? Hope they're feeling better man.
Morning StormW, Sir.
The WU has a special Climate Blog Bonedog. It is a pretty lively blog and all are welcome.....nobody will bite!
Stop on over to Rickys blog and read up on all this.....
Mornin Mr. Storm!
Olga is a fighter...
you are right vort this is the wrong blog.

back to watching the radar waiting for the snow to arrive.
750. GBlet
Good morning! Storm looks impressive compared to yesterday. Srarting to look like it did just before kicked our butts!
751. GBlet
Bone I sure hope everyone your way is ready! We are busy trying to prep for next one tomorrow, hopefully all snow.
GB nope. As of the 11pm news they were calling for change over to rain. At most 4 inch accumulations before hand.

So basically everyone is expecting a non event. I am ready and so are a few of my neighbors that actually ask me about the weather LOL

Unless folks looked at the NWS site they have no clue
shes a fighter Ill give her that

Here is the latest visible shot.
Visible
Hey Storm,
Throwing out all the shear maps, do you see evidence on satellite imagery of high wind shear? I do not see any high wind shear. Correct me if I am wrong.

With the way this storm has been fighting, I would not be surprised to see regeneration occur. Looking too good to be a "remnant" low.
QuickSCAT shows open wave though. Guess the circulation is midlevel

758. GBlet
i wish more people would pay attention! People still don't realize they are resposible to protect themselves,to be aware and informed.
GM all
Good morning NE! Ready for some snow?
Good morning JFV!
GBlet.....This is not a perfect world. People now expect everyone else to save them in a disaster.
Im ready cchs,just wish I didn't have to drive home from work in it,not going to be fun
Heavy snow warnings are up for my area.
766. GBlet
Got one more kid to get on bus, BBL
Taking a look at the remnants of Olga, it looks like the circulation has remained, albeit weaker and convection has increased throughout the night around it.

Throwing out all the shear maps, do you see evidence on satellite imagery of high wind shear? I do not see any high wind shear. Correct me if I am wrong.

With the way this storm has been fighting, I would not be surprised to see regeneration occur. Looking too good to be a "remnant" low.
Im dreading the drive home myself. First snow of the year usually brings out the stupid in people.

GM Bone,I just am always dumbfounded how people in the northeast forget how to drive in snow from year to year.
LOL you are correct. At least the learning curve is rather steep. Takes one storm for them to rember. AT least its a one two punch so they should get the hang of it by sunday
Good luck NE and Bonedog! Be patient and be careful. What am I saying? I have never had to drive in heavy snow.
Storm, I am looking primarily at the circulation. I have seen the shear around Cuba and Hispanola, but not over the circulation.
JFV,
I reside in Cooper City, FL about 40 miles NW of Miami in Broward County. How about you, out of sudden curiosity?
Kendall in Miami here, soon to be Palmetto Bay.
Bone how much are they predicting for your area today?
Morning everybody,

Goes floater loop - Olga

Measured 30 mph winds earlier [north side of Cayman Brac] this morning, with gusts to 40 . Slanting hard rain, and pressure of 29.72 and still falling. Looks from the imagery that the TD is pretty much past us. Hopefully will get picked up and moisture sent to the southern U.S.
vort.. this is my last comment on the climate talks

from CNN

European nations will boycott U.S.-led climate talks next month unless Washington accepts a range of numbers for negotiating deep reductions of global-warming emissions, Germany's environment minister said Thursday.

"No result in Bali means no Major Economies Meeting," said Sigmar Gabriel, a top EU environment official, referring to a series of separate climate talks initiated by President Bush in September.

7:00 AM EST The rain and sleet has just started in Harrisburg, PA. Temperature has just fallen below freezing so it should be interesting how the day goes. Most schools ended up closeing for the day instead of the two hour delay. They are calling for the major storm to develop Sat into Sun. Heading your way NE.
NE they are calling 6 to 10 but just to my imediate north (which would be 1/4 mile from my home) is the Heavy Snow Warning of 8 to 12.

So My guess is somewhere in the 8 to 10 inch range
same for us up here,what makes it so bad is that it comes down a pretty short period.
yea should all fall in a 6 to 10 hr window.

The warning discussion is saying rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected
morning all,

Olga still fighting is a surprise. Its 72 outside right now. Just 20 miles west of me, my dad said it was 52 at his house. Thats a degree drop a mile. nuts huh!
Storm, you have to admit that she has been able to produce her own moisture throughout her entire lifespan. I realize that there is a mid-level circulation, but I still see a low-level circulation, albeit a bit weaker. I still think that regeneration is very possible as convection has been increasing around the circulation. How about you?
QS morning pass shows no LLC :( Needs to work it back down from the midlevels
Good morning Cajunkid.

That is not entirely nuts unless you both live at the same elevation. I know in Colorado that that is a common occurrence since you have plains that end abruptly at the foot of the Rocky Mountains where in 10 miles, you can see 20 degree temperature differences.

Do you both live at the same elevation? If so, then that is nuts.
I think you may have used the wrong word JFV. Contradictive means that I went against something that I had either previously done or said.
Hey Bonedog, read this excerpt from the 7:05 AM TWD from the NHC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED ON T.D. OLGA YESTERDAY EVENING.
THE REMNANT LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE NW CARIB NEAR
19N79W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL
EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES BUT CONVECTION
IS CONFINED TO A FEW SMALL BANDS N OF THE CENTER AND SLIGHTLY
LARGER OUTER BANDS FARTHER N OVER AND JUST N OF CUBA AND
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AS NOTED IN CUBAN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGES
AND LIGHTNING DATA. FAIRLY DENSE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SHALLOWER SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS ELSEWHERE N AND E OF THE
CENTER N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-80W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON
THE W SIDE OF THE LOW N OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-83W. SIMILAR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IS E OF 73W ENHANCED BY AN INCREASE IN THE ELY TRADE
WIND FLOW.
Yea Storm i noticed that. And also noticed the model suite split. Some take it more west while others drop it south of the 40/70 benchmark.

I figure thats what usually happens in the 48hr time frame. I am waiting for the next runs to see if we have better agreement.

I think the slow down is because of the current system impacting the NE. To me the models are looking at a blocking mechanism. Might change back again as the day progresses.
Do you both live at the same elevation? If so, then that is nuts.

cchsweatherman,
Yes, we both live just south of I-10 in south Louisiana. Thats about as close to the same elevation as you can get.
I did read that cch but whats wierd, to me personally, is that QS showed no circulation. Maybe the midlevel circ is a lower midlevel then an actual surface low?
Good morning all, StormW do you think that in the area of Raleigh NC that we might get rain or just some showers. I am confused as one weather channel will say finally Rain and the other will say just a few showers. Thanks for your input!
Good morning everyone,

Broward County here...

about 75 degrees now.. everyday it is getting into low 80's... our next cool down will be Sun/Mon highs in 70's LOL

we have been getting some off and on showers.

I see we are still watching TD Olga and the big snow/ice storm!!!
no problem Storm.
JFV, I survived through Wilma. Since my house faces east and the storm came in from the west, I was able to stand underneath my front patio area and watch the incredible destruction that took place. Too bad my camcorder wasn't working, or I would have some incredible footage for you all to see from Wilma as it bared down on my town for 6 straight hours. Was a nightmanre to clean up, but I can't complain just watching what other more powerful storms have done. You know what, I may post a blog where I will scan some pics that I took after the storm.
The model split is fascinating. The NAM is wacky --- but is it possible? If you look at the HPC guidance on the NWS, it looks like zero snow in the Baltimore, Philly, NYC areas. Could this be with some of the solutions dragging it so far S and E?
hug yes. If it goes south of the 40/70 mark the I-95 corridor is spared. west and its a heavy rain event. within 20 to 50 miles of the 40/70 mark would lead to the greast snowfall potential
Thanks Bonedog. Any thoughts on what everyone here is leaning towards?
hug right now with the model split I would look at the NAM and the GFS. I just dont see the southern route that some are taking.

The reason I like the NAM is the double Low it developes. Parent Low heading tword the Lakes with a coastal Low developing off Delmarv heading south of LI the to the Cape.

GFS sort of hints at this but keeps the main vorticy as a single Low heading off the Virgina Capes and to the 40/70.

On the long-range radar from Miami, you can see the showers and thunderstorms left over from Olga coming into the picture and moving NEWD towards South Florida. Based upon my analysis and forecast (you can see my site for the local forecast), South Florida will be receiving some impressive rainfall totals nearing 5 inches by the late Sunday. I hope this rain reaches Lake Okeechobee since water restrictions are going to get much tighter starting today.
I will continue to watch Olga's remnants for possible regeneration, but I have finally surrendered and believe that Olga now is dead as the LLC has collapsed. There still is a strong MLC, but that would need to work down to the surface, which looks like won't happen.
cchs....looks more like extreme south FL some rain, but not much north of Miami.
Ok,I'm back had to clear up a few system problems
Good morning,

The remnant low......Olga.......still looks impressive for a remnant low....The shear that has been talked about.......I see in some areas. Kind of hard to find being the heights of the showers are not that high. There is some areas showing evidence of shear and some not......Just off the northern cuba coast, those storms dont have much shear while east of Olga near Hispanola shows the shear. This is a unique situation and has been. Still some low topped convection firing around the center.
Experience tells me that as long as I see a circulation then there is still a chance of re-generation............
and the storm begins

sleet right now 10:09am

I am at work so its probably snow at my house
I was down just east of Marco Island when Wilma hit. I have 6 hours of video that Ive been editing but havent finished. A little piece is on StormJunkie.com if you want to go visit.
is a big blob of convection headed towards south florida? can i expect a thunderstorm this afternoon?


thanks
lol,have to laugh my nws current conditions,say 24 deg and fair,I look out my window and its completely overcast.
GOES-12 WV loop Tropical Basin..Link
Thats because they do Hourly Obs..not min to min. LOL
Plus ..is the NWS Office in your neighborhood? Conditions are relative..or,not everywhere within Ones view.


Nothing is fair in the NE except northern Maine.

LOL NE check your local sation? is it set for Maine LOL
Shear.......where

This is from the Navy website.......
That is the forecast in 72 hours.......Let me find the one for today
LOL dont feel bad NE my local says scattered clouds

Have ice pellets the size of BBs and ball bearings falling heavy.

WU better get onboard LOL
This is the 12 hour forecast


So........so tell me whats wrong with this shear map from the Navy website.....Are we only looking at particular levels in the atmosphere????
weatherboyfsu, yeah, its in diff levels, i couldn't tell you why or wich ones, but thats the thing.
StormW, thanks so much for your reply and the anwser put a big smile on my face. I really respect your input! Your da man!
I know what it is.......I just want other opinions.....Thanks......
This is how I think it goes: exOlga has a good MLC (mid level circ.) but no LLC. or it's open. One of the two. And the MLC needs to work its way down to the surface, but the Mid Level Shear is too high, and that map shows Low Level Shear wich is favorable. Again, that is what I think it all is, and I could be very wrong or very right. :)
Wow what a snowy update Dr.Masters!
As always say,the best weather reporting is done out your own window.
it seems that the ocean is alot warmer for this time of year. does anyone have any info on this situation? thanks
exactly NE

ice pellets coming down hard now. Size is still growing.
just ran outside. sleet accumulating now on all surfaces. some big flakes starting to mix in.
Definitely no LLC.

There are no west winds to speak of in the cayman islands and pressures of 1012 to 1013.
Here in the hometown of Wilson A. "Snowflake" Bentley,
skies are overcast, but the clouds are mid-to upper, not low,
the wind is light...and for once it's not snowing!
Give us an hour or two. LOL!
Time for some hot cocoa, Bonedog!
843. 786
CaneWhisperer, nice to see a fellow resident of the rock, looking forward to x-mas day cause its starting to feel like groundhog day!!
There used to be a Cookie Factory..in the West.
So obviously..we liked the West wind...best.

There used to be a Cookie Factory, in the West..and when the West wind blew..it felt as though, we ..were..blessed.
844. Patrap 3:52 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
There used to be a Cookie Factory..in the West.
So obviously..we liked the West wind...best.

There used to be a Cookie Factory, in the West..and when the West wind blew..it felt as though, we ..were..blessed.

LOL,cookie sales must have jumped everytime west wind blew.
woohoo,company closing at 2p.m. due to storm.
NEW BLOG!!!
Sitting in the office with the remenats of Olga approaching, pretty over cast a little rain, wind speed ilght at 14mph, wind direction shifting from NE to N.

follow it here
Cayman

"I see we are still watching TD Olga and the big snow/ice storm!!!"
.....................Soon to become the "naked swirl formerly known as Olga"....