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Oil spill headed towards the Loop Current

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:01 PM GMT on May 17, 2010

Recent satellite imagery and flight over-passes of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill confirm that a surface tendril of oil has become entrained into a southward-moving current that threatens to pull oil into the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current late this week. The Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and then along the west side of the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. Once oil gets into the Loop Current, the 1 - 2 mph speed of the current should allow the oil to travel the 500 miles to the Florida Keys in 10 - 20 days. Portions of the Loop Current flow at speed up to 4 mph, so the transport could be faster.

Why is oil getting close to the Loop Current?
The winds over the oil spill location are offshore out of the northwest today, and offshore winds will continue intermittently through Wednesday, helping push the oil southwards towards the Loop Current. However, the major reason oil is moving southwards is because of the instability of the currents in the Gulf of Mexico. The Loop Current is not a stable feature, and tends to surge northwards and southwards in a chaotic fashion, and in response to changes in the prevailing winds. Over the past week, chaotic behavior of the Loop Current and a clockwise-rotating eddy just to its north, just south of the oil spill location, have combined to bring a current of southward-moving surface water to the oil spill location. As strong on-shore winds from the southeast slackened this past weekend, oil has been drawn southward towards the Loop Current. An examination of the latest NOAA trajectory forecasts and surface current forecasts reveals the possibility that this tendril of southward-moving oil could make it into the Loop Current late this week. It is highly uncertain how much oil might make it into the Loop Current, or how diluted it might get on its voyage to the Florida Keys next week. Southeast to east winds of 10 - 15 knots are expected to develop late this week and extend into early next week, which may be strong enough to impose a surface current that will prevent oil from getting into the Loop Current this month. I predict a 30% chance that oil will make it into the Loop Current in the next two weeks.


Figure 1. Forecast made at 8pm EDT Sunday May 16, 2010, of the Gulf of Mexico currents by NOAA's HYCOM model. A persistent southward flowing surface current is predicted to occur this week between the oil spill location (red dot) and the Loop Current. Image credit: NOAA.

Likely areas of impact once oil gets into the Loop Current
Based on a study of 194 floating probes released into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico during a 1-year study in the 1990s (Figure 2), the west coast of Florida from Tampa Bay southwards to the Everglades is at minimal risk of receiving oil from surface currents. There is a "forbidden zone" off the southwest Florida coast where the shape of the coast, bottom configuration, and prevailing winds all act to create upwelling and surface currents that tend to take water away from the coast. This study implies that the greatest risk of land impacts by surface oil caught in the Loop Current is along the ocean side of the Florida Keys, and along the coast of Southeast Florida from Miami to West Palm Beach. Eddies breaking away from the Gulf Stream would also likely bring oil to northwest Cuba, the western Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast as far north as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, though at lesser concentrations. Southwest Florida cannot rest entirely, though--the "forbidden zone" is only true for surface waters, and there is onshore flow below the surface. Since recent ship measurements have detected substantial plumes of oil beneath the surface, southwest Florida might be at risk if one of these plumes gets entrained into the Loop Current. These subsurface plumes were also detected by current probes launched into the oil spill on May 8 by one of NOAA's hurricane hunter aircraft, according to one scientist I spoke to at last week's AMS hurricane conference. There are plans for the Hurricane Hunters to go out again tomorrow and drop more probes into the spill to attempt to get a better handle on where the oil is and where the currents are taking it.


Figure 2. Paths of 194 floating probes released into the yellow-outlined area in the northeast Gulf of Mexico between February 1996 and February 1997 as part of a study by the Mineral Management Service (MMS). The probes were all launched into waters with depth between 20 and 60 meters. Image credit: Yang, H., R.H. Weisberga, P.P. Niilerb, W. Sturgesc, and W. Johnson, 1999, Lagrangian circulation and forbidden zone on the West Florida Shelf, Continental Shelf Research Volume 19, Issue 9, July 1999, Pages 1221-1245 doi:10.1016/S0278-4343(99)00021-7

When will a Loop Current eddy break off?
Every 6 - 11 months, the looped portion of the Loop Current cuts off into a clockwise-rotating ring of water that then slowly drifts west-southwest towards Texas. When one of these rings breaks off at the peak of hurricane season, it provides a source of heat energy capable of providing fuel for rapid intensification of any hurricanes that might cross over. The Loop Current is not predicted to shed an ring over the next month, as predicted by the latest 1-month forecast from the U.S. Navy. However, the last eddy broke off in July of 2009, ten month ago, and it is unusual for the Loop Current to go more than eleven months without shedding an eddy. I expect we'll see the Loop Current shed an eddy in July or August, just in time to pose the maximum threat for hurricane season. According to an interesting February 2004 article published by offshore-engineer.com, reliable forecasts of these currents and eddies are not available yet. Keep in mind that surface currents are largely driven by winds, and wind forecasts are not reliable out more than about 10 days.

References
Yang, H., R.H. Weisberga, P.P. Niilerb, W. Sturgesc, and W. Johnson, 1999, Lagrangian circulation and forbidden zone on the West Florida Shelf, Continental Shelf Research Volume 19, Issue 9, July 1999, Pages 1221-1245 doi:10.1016/S0278-4343(99)00021-7.

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters! OH NO! This will destroy the Coral Reef in the Keys.
Did my comment get deleted? I'm confused.

When will we get your predictions for this hurricane season Dr. Masters?

Also thanks for the update.
Thanks Dr. Masters! Well we always knew this was going to happen once the oil spill lasted a few weeks, with a large volume of oil. The oil was bound to get into the loop current eventually.
"...I expect we'll see the Loop Current shed an eddy in July or August, just in time to pose the maximum threat for hurricane season..."

Just another thing to add to the list of "bad season" items.
Very important to know, thanks Dr. Masters. The low pressure that forms in a week will be broad and sheared at best, enough said. No reason to argue that!
Quoting skepticall2:
Did my comment get deleted? I'm confused.

When will we get your predictions for this hurricane season Dr. Masters?

Also thanks for the update.
doc normally does an outlook last week of may just before jun 1 or on jun 1

thanks for update

May I try this again?? Good afternoon Dr M, thanks for the update.

Has BP made any further statements today on how they plan to clean up the oil in the Loop Current?
The action we have in Florida right now is actually what develops the low off the coastine, this is the same low that the GFS shows becoming SUB-tropical in nature. The GFS is the only model showing a low, CMC has a ripple by 144 hours.
10. JRRP
.
blog1469 post971 presslord "new estimate: 5000 barrels per day"

post1043 aspectre "Thanks for the heads-up. Certainly closer to other US-affecting offshore blowouts: 8,000to10,000barrels per day averaged over 10days at Santa Barbara; and 11,000to12,000barrels per day averaged over 295days at Ixtoc I, Gulf of Mexico.
The ExxonValdiz wreck spilled ~11million gallons. At 5,000barrels/210,000gallons per day, the DeepwaterHorizon spill will reach that level by June11th.
In 2005, TropicalStorm Arlene reached near-hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico on June10th."

Comparisons with the day before TropicalStorm Arlene began spinning on 8June2005

16May2010

7Jun2005

16May2010

7Jun2005

16May2010
Idiot BP, what were they thinking?
Quoting Bordonaro:
May I try this again?? Good afternoon Dr M, thanks for the update.

Has BP made any further statements today on how they plan to clean up the oil in the Loop Current?


There is no plans right now, If it gets into the loop current, they'll will start deploying boom and other instruments to try to keep it away from sensitive areas and clean up surface slicks.
An area of low pressure is developing near the southern end of the area of convection in the western Caribbean. Analysis of visible satellite imagery indicates surface convergence as trade winds greatly slow before reaching the Yucatan coast, and low-level clouds on the western and southern sides of the system are not moving very enthusiastically, suggesting that a surface trough or low is developing. Indeed, winds at Belize City on the east coast of the Yucatan, which have been out of the east for days, have become calm during the past 4 hours and just in the last hour became NNE (020 degrees). This is further indication that a surface low is forming east of Belize and north of Honduras.

This is not a tropical development alert. This area of convection is being caused by a divergent flow aloft in association with a weak upper shortwave moving across the area, and the GFS has picked up on the presence of this feature. With the subtropical jetstream racing right across this area, tropical development is not expected, but this system will bring moderate rains to the coastal areas of eastern central America, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands as it drifts around the western Caribbean for the next couple days.

High-Resolution GOES-13 Visible Satellite Loop

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
doc normally does an outlook last week of may just before jun 1 or on jun 1

thanks for update



Thanks Keeper
For Cyclone OZ and T Dude, new Severe Thunderstorm Watch. The Tornado risk is VERY LOW today, this will be a strong straight line wind (70 MPH)and large hail/heavy rain event:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ABILENE TEXAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER THE S PLAINS OF W TX CONTINUES TO
THRIVE AMIDST MLCAPE AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG. ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE ESE ALONG A WEAK FRONT INTO PARTS OF NW/CNTRL TX THROUGH
THE AFTN. WNWLY MID-LVL FLOW OF 30-35 KTS AND WEAK BUT MOIST SELY
LLVL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE
OF DMGG WINDS. LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OWING TO VERY STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31040.


...RACY/HALES
Quoting Bordonaro:
May I try this again?? Good afternoon Dr M, thanks for the update.

Has BP made any further statements today on how they plan to clean up the oil in the Loop Current?



You know what is really sad? What they have done to use chemicals to not allow the Oil to float by making it less boyant to float to the top is Horrible. To try to hide how much is being released will further destroy bottom life as they try to keep the oil from the top and allow it to linger at the bottom. So i guess what we can't see is ok?
12Z GFS continues to show weak disturbance in the Caribbean later this weekend. Also shows another disturbance east of the Bahamas

I haven't hear anything lately on Kevin Cosner's plan to filter the oil from the GOM. Anybody have an update on this?
Assuming the official rate of 5000barrels per day, the DeepwaterHorizon spill has reached halfway toward matching that of the ExxonValdiz on 17Apr10 at 2:30amCentralStandardTime.

Go to the GreatCircleMapper, then copy&paste in
31n98w-13n98w, 31n80w-13n80w, 29n88w, 29n89w, 28.5n88.5w, 29.5n88.5w, 29.35n88.85w, 28.65n88.85w, 29.35n88.15w, 28.65n88.15w

The crude oil slick covers an area nearly equivalent to a circular*degree, 3740square-miles or 9680square-kilometres.

If the present rates of spillage and of spreading continue until the morning of 11June10, the spill will have reached the ExxonValdiz level, and the oil slick will cover an area*equivalent to that shown by the coordinates
31n98w-13n98w, 31n80w-13n80w, 29n87.6w, 29n89w, 28.3n88.3w, 29.7n88.3w, 28.5n87.8w, 28.5n88.8w, 29.5n87.8w, 29.5n88.8w
on the GreatCircleMap.

Somehow neither circle seems to be "tiny when compared to the size of the Gulf of Mexico" as claimed by BritishPetroleum's ChiefExecutiveOfficer.

TropicalStorm Arlene made landfall nearby on 11June05.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Arlene_(2005)
"Two days prior to landfall, 36 oil platforms and 16 rigs were evacuated."

* Marked on the GreatCircleMaps by the respective last 8 coordinates posted above.
Quoting StormChaser81:


There is no plans right now, If it gets into the loop current, they'll will start deploying boom and other instruments to try to keep it away from sensitive areas and clean up surface slicks.

That will a monumental challenge since the Loop Current moves at several KTS/hr.
Quoting Levi32:
An area of low pressure is developing near the southern end of the area of convection in the western Caribbean. Analysis of visible satellite imagery indicates surface convergence as trade winds greatly slow before reaching the Yucatan coast, and low-level clouds on the western and southern sides of the system are not moving very enthusiastically, suggesting that a surface trough or low is developing. Indeed, winds at Belize City on the east coast of the Yucatan, which have been out of the east for days, have become calm during the past 4 hours and just in the last hour became NNE (020 degrees). This is further indication that a surface low is forming east of Belize and north of Honduras.

This is not a tropical development alert. This area of convection is being caused by a divergent flow aloft in association with a weak upper shortwave moving across the area, and the GFS has picked up on the presence of this feature. With the subtropical jetstream racing right across this area, tropical development is not expected, but this system will bring moderate rains to the coastal areas of eastern central America, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands as it drifts around the western Caribbean for the next couple days.

High-Resolution GOES-13 Visible Satellite Loop



I see you've catched on.
Quoting Weather456:


I see you've catched on.


I apologize if this was already discussed.
Quoting DKD:
The only good that could come out of this BP spill is if the Oil makes it around the corner of Florida,up to West Palm Beach and trashes Rush Limbaughs beach front property where his 10 million $$$ mansion sets.
That would be good, yes. Since he stated that this oil spill was as natural as sea water lol.
Good to see your face weather456! And your excellent analyses, of course :)
Quoting TampaSpin:



You know what is really sad? What they have done to use chemicals to not allow the Oil to float by making it less boyant to float to the top is Horrible. To try to hide how much is being released will further destroy bottom life as they try to keep the oil from the top and allow it to linger at the bottom. So i guess what we can't see is ok?

This will change the way that oil companies drill for oil in the GOM. BP admitted they knew there were problems before the BOP blew out. And they will be spending billions to fix this mess. I am sure congress will raise the liability limit from $75 million to over $1 billion USD.
Quoting Levi32:


I apologize if this was already discussed.


No need, it hasn't, I fully agree with your observations.
Something to think about .....the Gulf Stream Loop is not just a surface Loop it does run at a decent depth as well....the Oil Below surface will be picked up first before the top might if that Loop breaks off soon and since they have tried to keep the oil from the surface it will be much harder to detect as this will occur very quick once it happens.
Rush is on now!!Tune your radio!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Good to see your face weather456! And your excellent analyses, of course :)


Since I'm back as a featured blogger sometime soon, the portrait was appropriate.
Quoting Weather456:


Since I'm back as a featured blogger sometime soon, the portrait was appropriate.


Congrats. You deserve the position back.
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
I haven't hear anything lately on Kevin Cosner's plan to filter the oil from the GOM. Anybody have an update on this?


A great name for the endeavor would be "Project Tin Cup" :)
Quoting Weather456:


No need, it hasn't, I fully agree with your observations.


Anything developing will have a tuff time until it approaches the GOM as it should move toward the WNW currently.

Alright we plan on heading southwest of Amarillo towards Farwell, any thoughts?
yes ... indeed...
Quoting tornadodude:
Alright we plan on heading southwest of Amarillo towards Farwell, any thoughts?


Will you want to broadcast as we did yesterday, or do you have something else in mind?
2 skepticall2 "Did my comment get deleted? I'm confused."

Nope, it's over in http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1481
The blog got double-posted, and 1482 is the latest.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Will you want to broadcast as we did yesterday, or do you have something else in mind?


I cant do webcam, but we can do what we did yesterday, but right now Im waiting for the new SPC outlook to come out.

Quoting tornadodude:


I cant do webcam, but we can do what we did yesterday, but right now Im waiting for the new SPC outlook to come out.



What type of timeframe are we looking at?

It is now 11:30 CDT.
Quoting aspectre:
2 skepticall2 "Did my comment get deleted? I'm confused."

Nope, it's over in http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1481

The blog got double-posted, and 1482 is the latest.


I was thinking that or I thought my computer messed up thanks for clearing it up.
12Z GFS shows the low too far north with frontal structures. This is the East Coast low I am reffering to.
Quoting CycloneOz:


What type of timeframe are we looking at?

It is now 11:30 CDT.


yeah, probably around 2 CDT, Im going to head to the Texas and New Mexico border I think
Quoting Levi32:
An area of low pressure is developing near the southern end of the area of convection in the western Caribbean. Analysis of visible satellite imagery indicates surface convergence as trade winds greatly slow before reaching the Yucatan coast, and low-level clouds on the western and southern sides of the system are not moving very enthusiastically, suggesting that a surface trough or low is developing. Indeed, winds at Belize City on the east coast of the Yucatan, which have been out of the east for days, have become calm during the past 4 hours and just in the last hour became NNE (020 degrees). This is further indication that a surface low is forming east of Belize and north of Honduras.

This is not a tropical development alert. This area of convection is being caused by a divergent flow aloft in association with a weak upper shortwave moving across the area, and the GFS has picked up on the presence of this feature. With the subtropical jetstream racing right across this area, tropical development is not expected, but this system will bring moderate rains to the coastal areas of eastern central America, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands as it drifts around the western Caribbean for the next couple days.

High-Resolution GOES-13 Visible Satellite Loop



Good morning.

We are finally getting the rain you mention and it looks as if more is in store for today. The Gulf of Honduras is a known spawning ground for surface lows but conditions at Roatan Island to the South of where you have the low depicted show East winds so whatever may be forming there is still some time in the future.
Thank You Dr........Possible storms and oil for the Florida Keys this Summer; first responders will need to really be on their toes this year for Florida and the Gulf....With preveling onshore winds in the Summer near the coast, they will really need to step up with buring off the oil, if major slicks do get sucked into the loop current and are still out there come July and August, while any oil is well off shore so the toxic smoke does not come onshore also.......Don't even think about using chemical dispersments if oil approaches the reef systems off the Keys because of the potentially disastrous effects.
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, probably around 2 CDT, Im going to head to the Texas and New Mexico border I think


So broadcast at 5 PM CDT...or later?
New SPC Convective outlook is out!









DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR OH/TN VLYS INTO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINA'S...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN AND PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HI PLNS...

COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS TN/OH VALLEYS TODAY AS
UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY TRACKS FROM CENTRAL IL TO IN. STALLED
FRONTAL BAND EXTENDS WWD ACROSS NRN NC AND THEN INTO TN VALLEY WHERE
IT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE. RATHER MOIST AIR MASS VICINITY AND S OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE...PARTICULARLY E OF SRN APPALACHIANS.

TROUGH MOVES INLAND CA TO INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY END OF FORECAST
PERIOD AS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ROCKIES. UPSLOPE PERSISTS
SRN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PROVIDING BOTH SHEAR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

...LWR OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE THINNING ACROSS TN/LWR OH VALLEY WITH
MLCAPES CLIMBING ALONG WITH WEAKENING CINH. WITH MLCAPES TO 1000
J/KG AND 30-35KT OF CYCLONIC SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON FROM SRN KY/TN EWD ACROSS APPALACHIANS. STORM MODE
PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR AND BANDS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE DOMINANT
THREAT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 7C/KM.

DEEPER MOISTURE E OF APPALACHIANS WILL SLOW HEATING. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND VICINITY SEA
BREEZE FRONT. WITH ONLY 25-30 KT OF SHEAR...SEVERE SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO STRONGEST STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS WITH
AGAIN THE WIND THREAT THE GREATER CONCERN VS LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE...LIMITED CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM.


...SRN INTO CENTRAL HI PLAINS...
W-NWLY FLOW E OF ROCKIES RIDGE AXIS COUPLED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE SEWD.


CURRENT SEVERE MCS NWRN TX TRACKING SEWD INTO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE. ADDITIONALLY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN ERN NM
INTO SERN CO. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG...LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8C/KM
AND 35 KT OF SHEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY THREAT VERY LARGE
HAIL. HAVE EXTENDED THE RISK INTO SERN CO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWRN KS FOR THIS EVENING AS THE SAME SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE AS FURTHER S.

...FL...
HAVE ADDED LOW PROBS FOR POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE CENTRAL/SRN FL
PENINSULA. WITH A DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PW/S TO 2 INCHES
COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM...PULSE STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS ONLY 15-20 KT BUT
CONVERGENCE ALONG INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE FRONTS COULD AUGMENT
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...INTERIOR PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN...
HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN
TODAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIKELY TO CROSS THE REGION
AMIDST STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW ALOFT. PW AROUND .75 INCHES AND
MODEST AFTN DESTABILIZATION MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 05/17/2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


So broadcast at 5 PM CDT...or later?


Im leaving now for Farwell, right on the border, SW of Amarillo, although I might consider going NW instead.

any thoughts guys?
Quoting tornadodude:


Im leaving now for Farwell, right on the border, SW of Amarillo, although I might consider going NW instead.

any thoughts guys?


Apparently, that seems to be the right direction to go at this time.

Since you could get there pretty fast, you could choose to wait for a couple of more hours just to be sure.
GFS 12z keeping things interesting as far as prospects in the Caribbean. Even suggesting an upper level ridge trying to build in from the tropical Atlantic to allow for the retrogression of the upper level trough:

Quoting help4u:
Rush is on now!!Tune your radio!



Ummm...so?
Quoting CycloneOz:


Apparently, that seems to be the right direction to go at this time.

Since you could get there pretty fast, you could choose to wait for a couple of more hours just to be sure.


Hmmm, well Im just gonna go ahead and take US HWY 60 sw out of Amarillo and meet up with state road 1058
A trough-split forecast to occur by both the GFS and Canadian models somewhere north of the Caribbean islands in 3-5 days is expected to spawn at least a weak area of low pressure, which will be retrograding along with the cut-off piece to the west or northwest late this week and into next week. It will be interesting to see what kind of tropical characteristics this subtropical low may take on. The subtropical jet will be an issue early on but the GFS seems to think an upper low will eventually close off all the way up to the 200mb level, creating a pocket of cold air aloft and light winds which can be a good catalyst for subtropical conversion.

12z GFS 120-hour surface and 500mb:





The CMC Ensembles are actually very interesting on this system, especially for an ensemble mean:



Quoting tornadodude:


Im leaving now for Farwell, right on the border, SW of Amarillo, although I might consider going NW instead.

any thoughts guys?

Friendly words of advice. These storms are producing very STRONG straight-line winds. An 84MPH gust was recorded in Floydata, TX (Floyd CO) in the SE TX panhandle. See preliminary reporst below:

Note: All data are considered preliminary
Tornado Reports (CSV) (Raw Tornado CSV)
No reports received
Hail Reports (CSV) (Raw Hail CSV)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1216 100 2 SE HART CASTRO TX 3437 10209 (LUB)
Wind Reports (CSV) (Raw Wind CSV)
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1328 58 1 S PLAINVIEW HALE TX 3419 10172 (LUB)
1435 UNK FLOYDADA FLOYD TX 3398 10134 REPORT OF AT LEAST TWO SEMI-TRUCKS BLOWN OVER AND THREE ROOFS DAMAGED...INCLUDING A MUSEUM AND A GAS STATION IN FLOYDADA. (LUB)
1435 84 2 NNE FLOYDADA FLOYD TX 3401 10132 (LUB)
1545 61 1 W SPUR DICKENS TX 3348 10087 (LUB)
Full report in comma-separated values (CSV) format
Raw full report in comma-separated values (CSV) format
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (175 = 1.75")
LAT/LON in decimal degrees to two decimals, see SPC FAQ for more info
List of Weather Forecast Office 3-letter IDs appear in the report comments section

Follow the storms into they will be moving SE towards Abilene, TX.
The European is even in on this game:



I doubt this will happen, but ya never know....

Quoting Bordonaro:

Friendly words of advice. These storms are producing very STRONG straight-line winds. An 84MPH gust was recorded in Floyd, TX, in the SE TX panhandle. See preliminary reporst below:
Note: All data are considered preliminary
Tornado Reports (CSV) (Raw Tornado CSV)
No reports received
Hail Reports (CSV) (Raw Hail CSV)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1216 100 2 SE HART CASTRO TX 3437 10209 (LUB)
Wind Reports (CSV) (Raw Wind CSV)
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1328 58 1 S PLAINVIEW HALE TX 3419 10172 (LUB)
1435 UNK FLOYDADA FLOYD TX 3398 10134 REPORT OF AT LEAST TWO SEMI-TRUCKS BLOWN OVER AND THREE ROOFS DAMAGED...INCLUDING A MUSEUM AND A GAS STATION IN FLOYDADA. (LUB)
1435 84 2 NNE FLOYDADA FLOYD TX 3401 10132 (LUB)
1545 61 1 W SPUR DICKENS TX 3348 10087 (LUB)
Full report in comma-separated values (CSV) format
Raw full report in comma-separated values (CSV) format
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (175 = 1.75")
LAT/LON in decimal degrees to two decimals, see SPC FAQ for more info
List of Weather Forecast Office 3-letter IDs appear in the report comments section

Follow the storms into they will be moving SE towards Abilene, TX.


there is no way I can catch those storms, and if we did chase them, we would be out of position for tomorrow's chase..

thanks tho, it is an impressive storm for sure
Quoting tornadodude:


Hmmm, well Im just gonna go ahead and take US HWY 60 sw out of Amarillo and meet up with state road 1058


Safe journeys!

I can be ready for broadcast at 5 PM CDT.
Looks like the "model comparison watch" has been fully activated for the upcoming season as of today.....Time to get those links up on my new computer........ :)
Jeff thanks~ That's so less ominous from the local met on 6.. Had the oil hitting Cocoa Beach end of the week, beginning of next.

Very interesting that probe making it to Lake O & up the St John's River.. Say's something about how this spill could effect what alot of people drink.
After 250 hours, the EC low diminishes as it becomes tropical due to shear, kind of like Andrea in 2007, gets absorbed into the Carribean low. This is per the new GFS run, which is still running.
Yesterday in OK. Unbelievable. Link
After a couple of days of slight cooling due to increased trades the TCHP in the Western Caribbean has made a big rebound.

Notice how the GFS looks to be right on with this trough-splitting pattern that I was posting periodically last week on the ensembles. One thing to keep an eye out for is even if we don't get a nice surface low with the trough split, such a piece of upper energy can also act to ventilate the Caribbean, which is the other area we will have to watch out for next week. The latest GFS runs actually interact the two pieces of energy and merge surface lows, which is typical of the GFS but interesting to see so much playing around this time of year.
I just don't see much developing in the Caribbean currently..

Shear is very high and not forecast to get much better...


NOTHING close at 850 to 700mb Voricity???


There is a good Lower Convergence and good Upper Divergence







I just don't see anything coming together in the Caribbean....with all the tools that i see....the only thing there is convection due too Zonal Convergence. It might hang on and do something over a period of time but, there is nothing currently at the surface nor anywhere close to the surface in my opinion from what i have seen.
You can see what has happened on the GFS ensembles as the trough-split they were hinting to all of last week is now registering as a cut-off on the ensemble mean:

alright im out!

I'll try to post periodically.

Oz, just call my phone when you are home and available to broadcast,

later!!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just don't see much developing in the Caribbean currently..

Shear is very high and not forecast to get much better...


NOTHING close at 850 to 700mb Voricity???


There is a good Lower Convergence and good Upper Divergence


a brief window could open but it will be brief and confined
on your shear tendency map you can see a region of decreasing shear forecasted could provide passage to the atlantic for something quick
Long-range GFS operational and ensemble means showing light and favorable upper-level winds across most of the MDR by the beginning of June, especially the eastern Caribbean with an upper anticyclone overhead. Once the subtropical jetstream retracts north like that we will have to start watching in earnest.



Watching the Caribbean in late May/early June is much the same as late Oct/early November.
You need to have convection sit primarily in the SW caribbean for about 2 days taking its own sweet time organizing. Don't expect anything explosive during those time frames.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
on your shear tendency map you can see a region of decreasing shear forecasted could provide passage to the atlantic for something quick


But the SST's are not all that favorable up there tho.....who knows?
Quoting kmanislander:
Watching the Caribbean in late May/early June is much the same as late Oct/early November.
You need to have convection sit primarily in the SW caribbean for about 2 days taking its own sweet time organizing. Don't expect anything explosive during those time frames.

i kinda like calling it stewing

good day to you kman
Quoting TampaSpin:


But the SST's are not all that favorable up there tho.....who knows?
i am talking between PR sw ward and n ne ward high kinda now but forecasted to decrease
Quoting tornadodude:
Alright we plan on heading southwest of Amarillo towards Farwell, any thoughts?


Don't run out of gas. It gets pretty desolate. But the lightning is always spectacular.
Levi,

Classic case

Quoting Weather456:
Levi,

Classic case



What model is that from?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i kinda like calling it stewing

good day to you kman


Good day to you too KOG.

What I look forward to this time of year is the breaking of the annual drought conditions in the NW Caribbean. Today we got some rain but not much more than .25 in.

With all the factors favouring an active season lining up I guess it is tempting to start looking ahead a week or so but climatology also tells us that late May is the start of the rainy season for the NW and SW Caribbean. It is therefore not surprising that the models will start hinting at features that are rain makers.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


What model is that from?


He merged the GFS 200mb and surface maps from the NCEP site.
Quoting Weather456:
Levi,

Classic case




Very much so. It will be interesting to see how it turns out.
Quoting Skyepony:
Jeff thanks~ That's so less ominous from the local met on 6.. Had the oil hitting Cocoa Beach end of the week, beginning of next.

Very interesting that probe making it to Lake O & up the St John's River.. Say's something about how this spill could effect what alot of people drink.


I don't see how that happened.. the only way into Okeechobee Lake from the west is through the Caloosahatchee River.. and it doesn't exist where that line is.. also, the Kissimmee River is not located where that line comes out of the lake to the north... bogus line, bad data, IMO.

besides, that would be against the currents of the Caloosahatchee and Kissimmee Rivers..

Thanks Doc!
Quoting Weather456:
Levi,

Classic case


of what?
Quoting Levi32:



Very much so. It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

How what turns out? Low developing?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yesterday in OK. Unbelievable. Link


Really crazy! I've never seen hail like this.
Makes me wonder if the GFS chip in that errant probe is messed up....or if someone found the probe and put it in Lake Okeechobee and the Kissimmee river as a prank.
The weekly CPC update has El Nino 3.4 down to -0.1 down from +0.3 last week meaning it is dipping fast.

Link
The large "blob" of oil remains in suspension at depth, but its behavior if it does surface is relatively unknown. Being roughly 10 miles x 20 miles x (whatever) depth... it is obviously material that has congealed together and is very unlikely to disperse once it surfaces.

A tropical storm would only have small surface impact. However, a passing hurricane can cause much deeper water upwelling to the surface. Is it possible that, while the blob of oily emmulsion material is in suspension now at that depth, a passing hurricane can bring it to the surface? In that case, in the wake of a hurricane, we could have a large surface blob of 10 miles x 20 miles by 100 feet thick ooze?

That would make things convenient for suctioning and clean-up if it stayed in open water. Not so easy to clean up if it gets close to land or into the loop current.

Hurricanes provide a vital and necessary function in removing heat from the tropics. In this case, a hurricane can preform an invaluable service if it can cause the blob of oil to upwell to the surface without breaking it apart. Every cloud (or hurricane) must have it's silver lining.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Makes me wonder if the GFS chip in that errant probe is messed up....or if someone found the probe and put it in Lake Okeechobee and the Kissimmee river as a prank.


It Could have looped around from the East Coast of Florida and got there from an incoming tide and then got mixed into the River system and into the Big "O" from there. Its the only way is see.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


What model is that from?


The GFS

Quoting doabarrelroll:

of what?


of a baroclinically induced cyclone in the tropics or subtropics. Sometimes they become hybrids or subtropical cyclones, other times, they remain non-tropical.
Maybe somebody pick it up. Thought it was a pretty sea shell and took it home. Long shot a hurricane picked it up maybe Wilma.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yesterday in OK. Unbelievable. Link
Unbelievable.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Makes me wonder if the GFS chip in that errant probe is messed up....or if someone found the probe and put it in Lake Okeechobee and the Kissimmee river as a prank.


I don't think there is even a road along that path, much less the rivers.. I dunno, something is "fishy".. it would have to have gone by swamp buggy, air boat or air plane to take that route
Quoting doabarrelroll:

of what?
Quoting tramp96:

How what turns out? Low developing?


The GFS is showing a trough-split occurring in the SW Atlantic, where an elongated upper trough gets dragged out in the subtropics as the northern part of the trough lifts out, leaving the tail piece behind to retrograde west under the ridge. This particular situation puts a rather vigorous piece of upper energy in a position to initiate baroclinic development of a surface low beneath it, and if the upper trough gets fully cut-off as some of the models are indicating may happen, the surface low can become subtropical in nature.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The weekly CPC update has El Nino 3.4 down to -0.1 down from +0.3 last week meaning it is dipping fast.

Link


El Nino is gone the doc confirmed it last week
Serious thunder boomers in Bethune Beach right now. Still have power.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Wish this nightmare would end but think it's going to be quite a while, like at least a decade, before we've seen the last of this mess.
Quoting indianrivguy:


I don't think there is even a road along that path, much less the rivers.. I dunno, something is "fishy".. it would have to have gone by swamp buggy, air boat or air plane to take that route


Or z Pelican maybe..?
Looks like play-time for the NOGAPS as well:

Quoting Levi32:


The GFS is showing a trough-split occurring in the SW Atlantic, where an elongated upper trough gets dragged out in the subtropics as the northern part of the trough lifts out, leaving the tail piece behind to retrograde west under the ridge. This particular situation puts a rather vigorous piece of upper energy in a position to initiate baroclinic development of a surface low beneath it, and if the upper trough gets fully cut-off as some of the models are indicating may happen, the surface low can become subtropical in nature.


Thanks Weather and Levi, I cant see the images you post since I am at work and they are blocked. At what hour is this on the GFS indicating
CBS News is to have a phone interview with me in 30 minutes...

More later...
Hey Indianriverguy,

You worked in the DEEP sea. Do you feel there is a chance to raise that rig from 5000 feet ??
#101

Remember to Highlight your Yazoo, Miss xperience.

Burgers included
Quoting Patrap:


Or z Pelican maybe..?


do ya reckon the probes looked like fishes....
Quoting doabarrelroll:


Thanks Weather and Levi, I cant see the images you post since I am at work and they are blocked. At what hour is this on the GFS indicating


On the 12z run the process begins around 96 hours and continues through Day 9, 216 hours. By that time the upper trough is still there but the GFS starts fusing features together from the Caribbean which makes it look like a mess.
Quoting MissNadia:
Do you feel there is a chance to raise that rig from 5000 feet ??


Only Dirk Pitt and NUMA would even consider such an endeavor! ;)
LOL...

Recon Pelicans ?


They always picking up stuff Pelicans,..ever seen a Pelican nest irg?

They are the Octopuss's of the Sky.





Quoting MissNadia:
Hey Indianriverguy,

You worked in the DEEP sea. Do you feel there is a chance to raise that rig from 5000 feet ??


I am a submariner, not a salver.. but I doubt after the fire it is worth salvage.. that fire almost certainly rendered it nothing but scrap iron.
Quoting indianrivguy:


I am a submariner, not a salver.. but I doubt after the fire it is worth salvage.. that fire almost certainly rendered it nothing but scrap iron.


Thanks... I was thinking along the lines of accident info.
Lake Okeechobee lies at the center of the interconnected Everglades ecosystem, which includes the Kissimmee River to the north, and the Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) and Everglades National Park (ENP) to the south. The lake also forms part of the navigable Okeechobee Waterway connecting the east and west coasts of Florida via the St. Lucie River and the Caloosahatchee River.

Sorry didn't save the link to site; supposed to be working :)
StSimonsIslandGAGuy "Makes me wonder if the GFS chip in that errant probe is messed up....or if someone found the probe and put it in Lake Okeechobee and the Kissimmee river as a prank.
indianrivguy "I don't think there is even a road along that path, much less the rivers.. I dunno, something is "fishy".. it would have to have gone by swamp buggy, air boat or air plane to take that route"

Got mistaken for a fish then swallowed by a heron, which was promptly ingested by a Burmese python that swam and slithered up to the lake. How the Burmese python managed to get past HomelandSecurity is the real question.
Quoting CycloneOz:
CBS News is to have a phone interview with me in 30 minutes...

More later...



Waaaaaaaayyyyy cool Brian!!!!

Volcanic Ash Update

The latest information from the Icelandic Met Office indicates that the Eyjafjallajokull volcano continues to erupt. It is estimated that the current height of the ash plume is around 26000 ft (8 km) and lightning activity is constantly being detected within it. The plume is currently drifting northwards, but there is still residual ash in the vicinity of the British Isles from material that was blown southeastwards from the volcano a few days ago. Issued at 1546 on Mon 17 May 2010.


Timelapse 13-15 May: Link

Quoting Patrap:
LOL...

Recon Pelicans ?


They always picking up stuff Pelicans,..ever seen a Pelican nest irg?

They are the Octopuss's of the Sky.







I've seen many, but not IN them...junk collectors eh... larn sumpin evr day :)
Quoting CycloneUK:

Volcanic Ash Update

The latest information from the Icelandic Met Office indicates that the Eyjafjallajokull volcano continues to erupt. It is estimated that the current height of the ash plume is around 26000 ft (8 km) and lightning activity is constantly being detected within it. The plume is currently drifting northwards, but there is still residual ash in the vicinity of the British Isles from material that was blown southeastwards from the volcano a few days ago. Issued at 1546 on Mon 17 May 2010.


Timelapse 13-15 May: Link


"E" continues to blow out tons of ash and SO2 into the Icelandic atmosphere:

Hurricane Katrina photo exhibit documents sorrows, joys, desperate moments, rebuilt lives
By Cindy Chang, The Times-Picayune
May 17, 2010, 5:35AM


On Oct. 20, 2005, Karen Smith sat in her front yard washing dishes in a plastic bucket, her one-story brick home in ruins behind her. Clothes were hung to dry on a tree -- a sign, along with the makeshift kitchen sink, that the Smiths were living without modern conveniences in the months after Hurricane Katrina.

Nearly five years later, Smith and her family posed for a photograph on the front steps of a new and much bigger house on the same Lakeview lot, the two-story facade, front porch and hanging plants emblematic of an American dream rising from the ruins.
109 Miss Nadia; Thanks... I was thinking along the lines of accident info.

ahhh, sorry I misunderstood.. I dunno, I doubt BP would be very interested in recovering info or documents that might incriminate them and show them liable for the whole shebang.. there IS 7 hours of information missing.. pretty convenient I'd say.
119. JRRP
NOGAPS 12z
Link
121. jcxt
New modis image.
Not good.

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/
Quoting jcxt:
New modis image.
Not good.

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/


The oil?
Quoting Bordonaro:

"E" continues to blow out tons of ash and SO2 into the Icelandic atmosphere:



I find it hard to believe that this won't have any impact on our climate, especially if it goes on for months... or years.



Ash is forecast to be pushed up into the Arctic circle and russia.
That Dr. Masters sure does know how to write a good report. I swear I learn more from the few minutes I spend reading him than all the other weather-heads combined. And if I could only remember a tenth of all he's written, I'd be nothin' short o' brilliant.
Stupid oil leak.
Of course, folks like me who've lived in the area (WPB, Lake Worth, Lantana) our whole lives and are familier with the Gulf Stream, have been expecting its sticky visit ever since the ugly mess started. When the GS is rough, you can see it from shore.
The shape of the east side of the state - especially where Palm Beach sticks out on the point - appears to have an effect on the paths of hurricanes as well.
The LOOP CURRENT HAS GRABBED IT NOW.....OH BOY!

......I had warned yesterday that i feared the oil might reach the loop current by mid week,I still give it a better than 50%chance of reaching the loop current by the weekend,there is a FSU model out that shows this occuring,let me see if I can find it,I would expect the disturbed area off the yucatan to remain stationary and dissapate the only show in town would be if the trough split occurs south of the bahamas area in about a week,IMO could get interesting end of the month along the SE coastline!!!
This was the 6z GFS phase diagram of the trough-split low.

*Update* Unified Area Command to hold press briefing in Robert, La.

Key contact numbers

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401



Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240

*Updated information is highlighted*



Who: U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry, BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles and Mike Saucier, MMS Regional Director of Field Operations.



What: Unified Command to update media on ongoing operations regarding Deepwater Horizon oil spill response efforts and progress.



Where: The entrance location for press conferences at the Shell Robert Training and Conference Center has changed. Members of the media will enter the facility from the back gate. For a map to the back gate, click here. The address is 23260 Shell Lane in Robert, La., 70455-1928. A Unified Area Command joint information center representative will be at the gate at 12:30 p.m., to escort media.



When: 2:00 p.m. CDT. The call-in number for press unable to attend: (877) 918-5750.
International callers use (312) 470-7364 Password RESPONSE (73776673).



Live broadcast may be available on the Digital Video Information Distribution System (DVIDS) hub, which can be accessed at www.dvidshub.net. To see the live broadcast or download video of the conference, media must register with DVIDS no later than 1:45 p.m. This can be done on the DVIDS Web site or by calling (678) 421-6612.



RSVP: Media interested in attending should arrive no earlier than 12:00 p.m.
92B

132. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:
This was the 6z GFS phase diagram of the trough-split low.


in transition to tropical system
Quoting Levi32:
This was the 6z GFS phase diagram of the trough-split low.



If the maps verify, this could be TD 1

Good Afternoon Everybody,

Well got the oil changed in my truck, new tags and getting cameras ready and then work the rest of this week,
so Saturday we will be heading to Joplin MO to see mom.
But on that Monday the chase will be "ON".
Man I wish this week would hurry up and get over with.
I'm so ready to go after yesterday with Tornadodude and there chase....

Taco :o)
Quoting CycloneUK:


I find it hard to believe that this won't have any impact on our climate, especially if it goes on for months... or years.



Ash is forecast to be pushed up into the Arctic circle and russia.

The troposphere is the lower portion of the atmosphere, from sea level up to about 45,000 feet. This is where most of Earth's weather will occur.

Occasionally, thunderstorms will shoot up to over 70,000 ft into the lower stratosphere.

All of "E's" current ash/SO2 plume is staying in the 20-35,000 ft level. NO ash /SO2 is being sent into the stratosphere, which starts at roughly 50,000 ft upward to about 1000,000 ft.

The ash/SO2 emissions are rather significant, however the normal Polar Jet catches this and will eventually bring these emissions back to Earth.

IF "E" shoots ash/SO2 into the stratosphere (over 50,000 ft) then there will be a significant effect. But at this moment, that does not appear likely.

SO2 is an aerosol that mixes with minute particles of water vapor or tiny particles reflecting sunlight back into space when in the stratosphere. The SO2 is being washed out of the lower atmosphere at this time.
Oh hell we might as well drill in the everglades, looks like they have found a way to get the oil mess there anyways.Looks like S. Fl. loss maybe Caribbean's gain. I think I'll work on my Jamaican accent.Mon
Quoting Weather456:


If the maps verify, this could be TD 1



I wouldn't be surprised. Next week is going to be interesting with potentially two areas of interest to watch. This is also the first time so far this year that the more conservative Euro and NOGAPS models are getting in on the action as well.
NEW Cyclone phase diagram
SUB-tropical transition all the way

Quoting reedzone:
NEW Cyclone phase diagram
SUB-tropical transition all the way



Less bullish here on the 12z run, which I figured it would be by the look of the forecast maps. Still a clear subtropical storm though by the looks of this map. SSTs may not allow fully tropical transition but things may get interesting if the trough-split goes as planned.

Pinatubo blew its top when a typhoon was bearing down on the volcano. I wonder how much SO2 and ash was washed out, and how much more would have made it into the upper atmosphere had the weather been fair.
If, and it does look like it from the posted pics, that a tendril of oil is going into the loop current, then, they need to burn it off/dispurse the hell out of it NOW before they declare it is too close to shore (and the kids and seniors, etc.) to burn it or too close to the reefs to spray dispursments ........BURN BABY BURN..........
142. JRRP
cmc shear 12z

gfs 12z

ngp 00z
Quoting Levi32:


I wouldn't be surprised. Next week is going to be interesting with potentially two areas of interest to watch. This is also the first time so far this year that the more conservative Euro and NOGAPS models are getting in on the action as well.


I was trying to tell adrian this before he bashed me/called me out. I don't like stuck up weather scholars. I respect you and Weather456, you both have great analysis, as well as StormW.
Quoting Levi32:


Less bullish here on the 12z run, which I figured it would be by the look of the forecast maps. Still a clear subtropical storm though by the looks of this map. SSTs may not allow fully tropical transition but things may get interesting if the trough-split goes as planned.



Levi it appears to be the phase is the exact opposite on the 12Z as it is on the 6Z

on the 6Z it begins as shallow warm core and becomes more tropical at the end of the run

on the 12Z it appears to start fully tropical and then go the other way
Quoting Levi32:


Less bullish here on the 12z run, which I figured it would be by the look of the forecast maps. Still a clear subtropical storm though by the looks of this map. SSTs may not allow fully tropical transition but things may get interesting if the trough-split goes as planned.



I think becase it's moving more towards Bermuda, into the cooler waters to the north is why it is struggling on this run. Interesting week ahead next week indeed!
Quoting Levi32:


I wouldn't be surprised. Next week is going to be interesting with potentially two areas of interest to watch. This is also the first time so far this year that the more conservative Euro and NOGAPS models are getting in on the action as well.


It also occurs where the subtropical and polar jet splits. The synoptic pattern I'm seeing favors some level of genesis of a cyclone, non tropical and/or tropical.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
If, and it does look like it from the posted pics, that a tendril of oil is going into the loop current, then, they need to burn it off/dispurse the hell out of it NOW before they declare it is too close to shore (and the kids and seniors, etc.) to burn it or too close to the reefs to spray dispursments ........BURN BABY BURN..........


Chemical spray will kill the corals
I am getting a heavy thunderstorm in San Juan caused by a weak wave combined with diurnal effects.

Quoting taco2me61:
Good Afternoon Everybody,

Well got the oil changed in my truck, new tags and getting cameras ready and then work the rest of this week,
so Saturday we will be heading to Joplin MO to see mom.
But on that Monday the chase will be "ON".
Man I wish this week would hurry up and get over with.
I'm so ready to go after yesterday with Tornadodude and there chase....

Taco :o)


Well hurry up!

Im down in Hereford, Texas right now, but it looks capped right now, any thoughts?
Quoting Levi32:


Less bullish here on the 12z run, which I figured it would be by the look of the forecast maps. Still a clear subtropical storm though by the looks of this map. SSTs may not allow fully tropical transition but things may get interesting if the trough-split goes as planned.



More on the lines of a STD then.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


Levi it appears to be the phase is the exact opposite on the 12Z as it is on the 6Z

on the 6Z it begins as shallow warm core and becomes more tropical at the end of the run

on the 12Z it appears to start fully tropical and then go the other way


Well the 12z initializes the low slightly more warm-core than the 6z, but the only big difference is the 12z takes the low through subtropical transition and into the beginnings of going back to cold-core. The 6z run didn't yet show the transition back the other way, partly because of the track and timing difference between the runs. The GFS is hopping around a bit from run to run on this system, which is expected given the situation's complexity.
Quoting CycloneUK:

Volcanic Ash Update

The latest information from the Icelandic Met Office indicates that the Eyjafjallajokull volcano continues to erupt. It is estimated that the current height of the ash plume is around 26000 ft (8 km) and lightning activity is constantly being detected within it. The plume is currently drifting northwards, but there is still residual ash in the vicinity of the British Isles from material that was blown southeastwards from the volcano a few days ago. Issued at 1546 on Mon 17 May 2010.


Timelapse 13-15 May: Link



Latest from the Iceland Met office:


Articles < Seismicity < Icelandic Meteorological office

Go to site map.

Eruption in Iceland - frequently asked questions
Update on activity
Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland
Assessment - 17 May 2010 18:05


Ash trail 5 - 17 May
Ash from Eyjafjallajökull
Satellite image showing ash from Eyjafjallajökull, see animation.

The height (a.s.l.) of the eruption plume is about 6-7 km according to radar, occasionally pulsating to 9 km (27,000 ft). Winds around the volcano are slightly increasing, resulting in lower plume height. The plume is drifting east and is dark-gray.

Ash has fallen in the Gnúpverjahreppur area, on the road to Sultartangi power station and in the Biskupstungur area (very fine particled and gray). Constant lightning has been detected, up to 10 flashes per hour. The ash plume rises straight up from the site.

The volcanic activity is explosive, but there are indications that it has somewhat lessened since the maximum on 13 May. Considerable ashfall is in the nighbouring communities and is expected to continue. Fluctuations in the strength of the eruption and in ashfall can still be expected. Details in status report issued collectively by the Icelandic Meteorological Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences at 17:00.
153. xcool
Long Ranger: We look at th collapsing Nino, and the evidence that the monsoonal jet is already looking stronger than normal as two tropical disturbances are evident south of Asia. This is the hurricane hyperbole video. I tie this in to the forecast of the threat of development in the atlantic or Caribbean by June 1


by joe
Quoting reedzone:


I think becase it's moving more towards Bermuda, into the cooler waters to the north is why it is struggling on this run. Interesting week ahead next week indeed!


Reed its gonna be a long season with this attitude already. Just try to be more self-controlled as i am trying likewise.
Quoting tornadodude:


Well hurry up!

Im down in Hereford, Texas right now, but it looks capped right now, any thoughts?

Out of NWS Amarillo, TX Area Forecast Discussion 4:37AM CDT today:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL READY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH
AID OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE LATEST GRIDS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GIVEN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE
COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS.
sounds like the oil is in the loop current and heading SE.

Not a good thing.

Why cant we get BP to tell us how much oil is really gushing out of that mess they made?
157. xcool
oh TampaSpin how your doing sir.
Quoting tornadodude:


Well hurry up!

Im down in Hereford, Texas right now, but it looks capped right now, any thoughts?




ft worth area west towards the "d".....should have some possible SC development 4-8pm cdt,imo...hope it helps!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Out of NWS Amarillo, TX Area Forecast Discussion 4:37AM CDT today:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL READY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH
AID OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE LATEST GRIDS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GIVEN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE
COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS.


it's a little old, but thanks Bord!
Quoting stillwaiting:




ft worth area west towards the "d".....should have some possible SC development 4-8pm cdt,imo...hope it helps!!!


thanks!!
Quoting StormChaser81:


Chemical spray will kill the corals


I figured as much......Not sure of the effect of the burning chemicals on the enviornment either but at this point, they need to attack it with everything they's got while the tendrel/main spill is way offshore......It's not just the urgency of the loop current issue as that is unfair to the Gulf Coast residents with already affected/threatened coastlines but that may be the reason they will not burn closer to shore (airborne respitory issues) along the Gulf.....Enough already; what we read in the media is usually very far from the truth (media statements from BP included), or in this case, the magnitude of the problem......BURN IT OFF.
Quoting lickitysplit:
sounds like the oil is in the loop current and heading SE.

Not a good thing.

Why cant we get BP to tell us how much oil is really gushing out of that mess they made?


Think about it! Why would they if they knew what is facing them with all the law suits. To them its just a leak and that is about all you will get from them as now they have tried to hide the oil under the surface with chemicals to keep the oil off the surface. I can't believe our the EPA allowed them to do this. Wouldn't it be better to let it all come to the top to see what and how to gather it up....this is nuts.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Pinatubo blew its top when a typhoon was bearing down on the volcano. I wonder how much SO2 and ash was washed out, and how much more would have made it into the upper atmosphere had the weather been fair.

Pinatubo was shooting ash/SO2 up to 50,000 feet for quite a while, right up into the stratosphere.

While the typhoon struck, a good part of the ash/SO2 was washed down to the surface, until the typhoon passed. Then Pinatubo went back to shooting ash up to over 50,000 ft at times.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Reed its gonna be a long season with this attitude already. Just try to be more self-controlled as i am trying likewise.


Attitude? What attitude, I was just analyzing why the storm would have a hard time transitioning because it would be moving to cooler waters. I'm sorry if I brought up adrian, ut stuck up weaher scholars annoy me because thy think they know everything.
Like a a fleet of ships sailing to one tune, these cumulonimbus clouds were aligned in such away that it indicated they were forming along a surface trough of low pressure. High upper winds (white arrow) blew across the thunderheads so their tops formed contrails and/or anvils that stretched in the direction of the upper winds.



Further upper divergence led to this....

Quoting xcool:
oh TampaSpin how your doing sir.


Doing ok......just wish things in the world looked more positive as it seems at every front things look bleek in many cases. Not wanting to be a downer but, i am a realist.
Trying to get the weather section of our website ready for hurricane/storm chasing season:

Link

Please WUmail me links or suggestions or go there and register to be able to submit links yourself. Hopefully it can become one more good resource for everyone. Thanks!
Quoting tornadodude:


it's a little old, but thanks Bord!

T-DUDE, HOT OFF THE PRESS:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX AND SE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171819Z - 171945Z

TCU/CBS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU OF SW
TX NWD INTO SE NM ALONG THE GUADALUPE AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY GROW INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

LLVL SELYS HAVE MAINTAINED/TRANSPORTED A VERY MOIST AIR MASS NWWD
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LWR/MID-60S DEW POINTS ARE COMMON.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.8-8.0 DEG C/KM ATOP THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG. CONTINUED WARMING
ON THE LWR PLAINS WILL ERASE EARLY AFTN INHIBITION AND THERE WILL BE
INCREASED THREATS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS TO SURVIVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO SERN NM AND TRANSPECOS REGION OF SW TX BY
MID/LATE AFTN. 0-6KM SHEAR WAS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES SHOULD COMPENSATE AND VERY
LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY
CAN LATCH ONTO THE STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN NM LATER THIS
AFTN.

..RACY.. 05/17/2010

Looks like you've been praying to find a tornado, here ya' go!!
Quoting Weather456:
Like a a fleet of ships sailing to one tune, these cumulonimbus clouds were aligned in such away that it indicated they were forming along a surface trough of low pressure. High upper winds (white arrow) blew across the thunderheads so their tops formed contrails and/or anvils that stretched in the direction of the upper winds.



Further upper divergence led to this....



you sound awful poetic for a weatherman HAHA
170. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
Like a a fleet of ships sailing to one tune, these cumulonimbus clouds were aligned in such away that it indicated they were forming along a surface trough of low pressure. High upper winds (white arrow) blew across the thunderheads so their tops formed contrails and/or anvils that stretched in the direction of the upper winds.



Further upper divergence led to this....


nice
Quoting Bordonaro:

There was no recent update. NWS Amarillo, TX is real good about issuing updates on convective issues, due to the high likelihood of crazy weather in the TX panhandle.


yeah I feel ya, there is a MD farther south, we will probably just hang out in the panhandle as tomorrow and wednesday look to be big days in that area
Try the SPC page for something tangible.

Its what they do.
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah I feel ya, there is a MD farther south, we will probably just hang out in the panhandle as tomorrow and wednesday look to be big days in that area

UPDATE on #168 post, hot off the SPC PRESS!!
The oil is not in the loop current: theres factors that the oil must over come to get into the loop current.
1st. The loop current is pushing little currents off all around it self forcing the oil away.
2nd. The loop current water level is higher than the surrounding GOM.
3rd. It has to really get entrained to make a huge impact. The loop current has so much water movement it will weather the oil very quickly (Tarballs)
Weather456---

So this area in the Carrib is a surface trof?

And the probs for development would be really low right?
Quoting twhcracker:


you sound awful poetic for a weatherman HAHA


lol
Well after Ixtoc there were tar balls all over the Georgia coast in 1980 and 1981. Not nice, the people here tell me.
afternoon all...i read a prediction that the west pac. was going to have near normal season..so would that imply another reason our basin will be more active? Not sure if one basin is normal does that mean others will be active or vice versa? Any one with input is appreciated and thanks !!!
I still think the EPAC (between ATL & PAC) has best chance of forming something this week, better than expected out there right now. (click pic for loop) & That big T-wave that hit SA, that stepping off this week looks promising too.

Quoting stormhank:
afternoon all...i read a prediction that the west pac. was going to have near normal season..so would that imply another reason our basin will be more active? Not sure if one basin is normal does that mean others will be active or vice versa? Any one with input is appreciated and thanks !!!


Well when you get a La Nina going in the Pacific it limits tropical activity in that part of the world as the cold water promotes net subsidence. All those basins should be normal to below normal, which leaves the Indian Ocean and Atlantic as the primary focus regions for heat and upward motion with their warm water. Although net worldwide tropical activity will probably remain below normal this year, the atmosphere is starting to play catchup, and the Atlantic looks to be the basin that picks up most of the slack this year, as it currently has the most heat buildup relative to normal.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Weather456---

So this area in the Carrib is a surface trof?

And the probs for development would be really low right?


correct. My forecast calls for it to slowly drift west into the Yucatan, with much of the convection remaining east of the center due to 50 knots of upper winds. It actually gets into the Southern GOM in a confluent (stable) zone, with much of the convection left over the Yucatan/NW Caribbean. this time frame is 1-3 days.
ECMWF 12z out to 144hrs suggesting development in the southern Caribbean.

thanks for explaining it weather456!
Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF 12z out to 144hrs suggesting development in the southern Caribbean.



uh huh

It also shows the area east of the Bahamas

Quoting tornadodude:


thanks!!


Sorry
i missed your response. But I will be there soon....
i
just have to work this week :o(
I tell ya you had me ready yesterday....

Taco:o)
Quoting Weather456:


uh huh

It also shows the area east of the Bahamas



*Sarcasm on*

Its May though, aren't we getting ahead of ourselves??

*Sarcasm off*
Quoting taco2me61:


Sorry
i missed your response. But I will be there soon....
i
just have to work this week :o(
I tell ya you had me ready yesterday....

Taco:o)


Check your e-mail again for full update!
Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF 12z out to 144hrs suggesting development in the southern Caribbean.



Huh didn't think that site would update before the ECMWF site.

Like I said things could get interesting next week. It is wise to pay attention when the Euro gets on board. This is the first time so far this year, and it's doing it with both systems.


If one would look at this graph above, look at 2005...you can see the peak occured then....it was a 3 year climb to the peak.....so with that and looking at the other peaks are very simailar and seeing we are in a low currently....the peak would occur at least 2-3 years down the road for Tropical activity. NEXT YEAR AND THE FOLLOWING YEAR SHOULD BE WORSE THAN THIS YEAR if one believes in statistical measures. JUST MY OPINION!
92B
Wouldn't be something if "Alex and Bonnie" form in the next week or two? Just saying, a start to a potentially active and deadly season.
From the latest MODIS image, the oil is at Tampa Bay's latitude, which means it is in the Loop Current. Blog update coming soon.

Jeff Masters
Quoting reedzone:
Wouldn't be something if "Alex and Bonnie" form in the next week or two? Just saying, a start to a potentially active and deadly season.


In 2007 we had Andrea and Barry by June 1st, so it is not as far-fetched as some would lead us to believe
Continuing to deepen east of the Bahamas at 168 hours:

Its fairly southerly position on the Euro favors warm-core transition over warmer SSTs.

O I just love this i see this LinkLink
Boom,,bada bing..

"Cymbal Crash"





Quoting JeffMasters:
From the latest MODIS image, the oil is at Tampa Bay's latitude, which means it is in the Loop Current. Blog update coming soon.

Jeff Masters


Now a big question is how much oil is underneath the surface that we cannot see?
Thanks for the info Dr. Masters! I would say good to know, but it's bad, bad news. But it was inevitable as the spill kept going for weeks.
Quoting taco2me61:


Sorry
i missed your response. But I will be there soon....
i
just have to work this week :o(
I tell ya you had me ready yesterday....

Taco:o)


yeah, maybe we can meet up in the Joplin area when we are on our way back.

Yesterday was awesome, playing the waiting game today :P

*cue jeopardy theme*
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters
Boom,,bada bing..

"Cymbal Crash"





This afternoon's Modis image north eastern GOM.
Link
Credit: Modis Rapid Response
www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com

Latest Information

* May 17, 2010
Statement from NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco on Ongoing Efforts to Monitor Subsea Impacts of the BP Oil Spill
* May 17, 2010
MEDIA ADVISORY: Theodore, Ala., Wildlife Rehabilitation Center
* May 17, 2010
*Update* Unified Area Command to hold press briefing in Robert, La.
* May 17, 2010
"Top Kill" graphic
* May 17, 2010
Identifying oil in Mississippi, Alabama and Florida
* May 17, 2010
Identifying oil in Louisiana
* May 17, 2010
Current Operations and Ongoing Response
* May 17, 2010
PHOTO RELEASE: Bird cleaning at FT JACKSON, La.
* May 17, 2010
DHR: Vessels of Opportunity Program
* May 17, 2010
Situation Status Map - May 17, 2010
Euro 216 hours closed low east of Florida:



Upper ridge over cut-off trough-split low.....a mischievous pattern:

Quoting Hurricanes101:


In 2007 we had Andrea and Barry by June 1st, so it is not as far-fetched as some would lead us to believe


Oh yeah, forgot about good ol Barry lol.. Thans for reminding me, guess it isn't too impossible, but still rare.
DATE: May 17, 2010 13:03:15 CST

Statement from NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco on Ongoing Efforts to Monitor Subsea Impacts of the BP Oil Spill



Key contact numbers

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511


* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858

* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401



Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240

"Media reports related to the research work conducted aboard the R/V Pelican included information that was misleading, premature and, in some cases, inaccurate. Yesterday the independent scientists clarified three important points:

1. No definitive conclusions have been reached by this research team about the composition of the undersea layers they discovered. Characterization of these layers will require analysis of samples and calibration of key instruments. The hypothesis that the layers consist of oil remains to be verified.

2. While oxygen levels detected in the layers were somewhat below normal, they are not low enough to be a source of concern at this time.

3. Although their initial interest in searching for subsurface oil was motivated by consideration of subsurface use of dispersants, there is no information to connect use of dispersants to the subsurface layers they discovered.

NOAA thanks the Pelican scientists and crew for repurposing their previously scheduled mission to gather information about possible impacts of the BP oil spill. We eagerly await results from their analyses and share with them the goal of disseminating accurate information.

NOAA continues to work closely with EPA and the federal response team to monitor the presence of oil and the use of surface and sub-surface dispersants. As we have emphasized, dispersants are not a silver bullet. They are used to move us towards the lesser of two environmental outcomes. Until the flow of oil is stemmed, we must take every responsible action to reduce the impact of the oil.%u201D

For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.
Quoting Levi32:
Euro 216 hours closed low east of Florida:



Upper ridge over cut-off trough-split low.....a mischievous pattern:



The ECMWF link that is in your 1st pic does not show anything special in the SW Caribbean like the other link does

could be that whatever forms off the SE Coast is what we will be watching for development
"So far, BP has told federal agencies that it has applied more than 400,000 gallons of a dispersant sold under the trade name Corexit and manufactured by Nalco Co., a company that was once part of Exxon Mobil Corp. and whose current leadership includes executives at both BP and Exxon. And another 805,000 gallons of Corexit are on order, the company said, with the possibility that hundreds of thousands of more gallons may be needed if the well continues spewing oil for weeks or months.

But according to EPA data, Corexit ranks far above dispersants made by competitors in toxicity and far below them in effectiveness in handling southern Louisiana crude.

Of 18 dispersants whose use EPA has approved, 12 were found to be more effective on southern Louisiana crude than Corexit, EPA data show. Two of the 12 were found to be 100 percent effective on Gulf of Mexico crude, while the two Corexit products rated 56 percent and 63 percent effective, respectively. The toxicity of the 12 was shown to be either comparable to the Corexit line or, in some cases, 10 or 20 times less, according to EPA. "

Source: ThinkProgress

210. xcool
so gfs and ngp now ecmwf wow
RE: 203

WOW!!! You can really see the spill in that shot. Amazing.
Quoting JeffMasters:
From the latest MODIS image, the oil is at Tampa Bay's latitude, which means it is in the Loop Current. Blog update coming soon.

Jeff Masters


I wonder how much we can't see is there also with the oil not coming to the top.
Quoting Levi32:


Huh didn't think that site would update before the ECMWF site.

Like I said things could get interesting next week. It is wise to pay attention when the Euro gets on board. This is the first time so far this year, and it's doing it with both systems.


I'm not convinced on the system near the Bahamas. The GFS shows a rather prominent frontal feature attached to the low.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


The ECMWF link that is in your 1st pic does not show anything special in the SW Caribbean like the other link does

could be that whatever forms off the SE Coast is what we will be watching for development


The first images from the other site are only out to 168 hours so far. Also, the ECMWF site spaces the isobars at 5mb apart, whereas the raleigh site spaces them 2mb apart, which is much better for viewing tropical features. The 216-hour I showed has a closed 1010mb isobar in the central Caribbean, but we will know more about how well-defined that feature is in a bit.
215. JRRP
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, maybe we can meet up in the Joplin area when we are on our way back.

Yesterday was awesome, playing the waiting game today :P

*cue jeopardy theme*


Looks like something's building right above your head, young man! :)
From Dr. Master's post


LOL. It looks like someone plucked one of the probes off the beach in Florida and took it home with them.
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm not convinced on the system near the Bahamas. The GFS shows a rather prominent frontal feature attached to the low.


It becomes detached later as the trough-split completes.

Front:



Front:



No Front:

From NOAA:

"Situation: Saturday 15 May – NOAA continues to provide scientific support including: modeling the trajectory and location of the oil, conducting shoreline oil assessment surveys, conducting oil chemistry analyses, and evaluating open water and shoreline remediation techniques.
Undersea dispersant application resumed this morning and BP is doing continuous testing. If tests reveal something we are concerned about, the dispersant application will be stopped.
Skimming and in-situ burning was planned but postponed until the weather is more moderate. Aerial dispersant application did take place.
Tarballs were reported west of Galveston, Texas to the Florida panhandle. Testing already underway has shown some tarballs to be from this spill and others not.
As of today, 1.6 million feet of boom have been deployed, and all the ports remain open.
Over 11,000 people were working on the response today."

So tarballs from this spill are washing up but other tarballs are washing up....FROM WHAT?!?!?!!?
221. xcool
, I Hope cmc Jump on board!!!!
Raleigh site 192-hour European shows deepening lows northeast of the Bahamas and in the SW Caribbean.

Quoting Levi32:


It becomes detached later as the trough-split completes.

Front:



Front:



No Front:



If you look at the Water temps.....it could barely hold a Tropical Storm MAYBE.....





207. Patrap 3:02 PM EDT on May 17, 2010

I've got an Oceanography PhD in the office and we just caucused on the issue of the loop current; he feels that an "unfathonable" colum of oil is under the sub-surface basically leaving a toxic trail, particularly, with the micro-organisms (plankton, etc.) floating in the water colums which form the base of the food chain......He thinks the impacts of this will be far reaching and not fully know for the next decade or two.........
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm not convinced on the system near the Bahamas. The GFS shows a rather prominent frontal feature attached to the low.


If that is true, then it should be reflected in cyclone phase diagrams by the same model, GFS.

Asymmetry does not occur until later in the cycle, until then, the system is analyzed and modeled as a non-frontal feature.

Quoting TampaSpin:


I wonder how much we can't see is there also with the oil not coming to the top.


I suspect there is a lot around that does not show up on maps/pictures. Dauphin Island in Alabama has had tar balls more than once, confirmed too, but nothing shows the oil being close to there.
Quoting Levi32:
Raleigh site 192-hour European shows deepening lows northeast of the Bahamas and in the SW Caribbean.



Looks like a nasty surf event for the eastern seaboard at any rate. That blocking surface ridge over New England would create a nasty pressure gradient between itself and any low near the Bahamas.
Quoting TampaSpin:


If you look at the Water temps.....it could barely hold a Tropical Storm MAYBE.....







A subtropical system does not require as much heat from the ocean, as it has the benefit of steeper lapse rates due to cold pockets aloft.
229. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:
Raleigh site 192-hour European shows deepening lows northeast of the Bahamas and in the SW Caribbean.


looks that man...

nice
WHen I look at the SST graph for the Tropical Pacific, sure looks like moving in the direction of a La Ninja~,...anyone know when the wind shear is supposed to start dropping?
Thanks Levi...I had another question that Joe bastardi once said If one basin has storms steering in a certain direction that another basins storms tend to follow the same path ex. west etc.. is that true also??
Quoting Levi32:


A subtropical system does not require as much heat from the ocean, as it has the benefit of steeper lapse rates due to cold pockets aloft.


That's why the accepted requirement is 23C, 3.5C lower than tropical cyclones.
Live press conference as I write...the Admiral says that while sheen has been detected in the general area of the northern edge of the loop current, as of this time, and although it may be close, oil is definitely NOT in the loop current at this time
Does this look cool or what...

Euro 216 hours:

Caribbean low seems to weaken a bit but the low east of Florida is something to see.



235. xcool
JRRP. Get ready for more
TORNADO WARNING
TXC291-339-407-172000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0009.100517T1911Z-100517T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
211 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF SHEPHERD... MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TARKINGTON PRAIRIE...NORTH CLEVELAND AND CLEVELAND.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Quoting TampaSpin:
The LOOP CURRENT HAS GRABBED IT NOW.....OH BOY!



How do you interpret this "feature" streaming to the southeast from that oil spill?

It could be a thin rainbow sheen film on the surface reflecting the sun glint.

But, if you enlarge the photo and examine i closely, it appears to be showing an UNDERWATER plume of dispersant laden oil that has been picked up the loop current. That would be a much more serious development.

Any thoughts on this?
Quoting stormhank:
Thanks Levi...I had another question that Joe bastardi once said If one basin has storms steering in a certain direction that another basins storms tend to follow the same path ex. west etc.. is that true also??


I don't off the top of my head remember such a statement from him but I'd have to know more of the context of it.
Quoting Weather456:


If that is true, then it should be reflected in cyclone phase diagrams by the same model, GFS.

Asymmetry does not occur until later in the cycle, until then, the system is analyzed and modeled as a non-frontal feature.



warm core seclusion
Quoting JRRP:

looks that man...

nice


The ECMWF intensifies the feature and retrograde back to Florida.

The GFS takes it out to sea.

The system retrogrades back west under a blocking ridge.

Similar scenario to Andrea 2007

It weakens the SW Caribbean disturbance as it heads towards Hispaniola

Quoting Levi32:
Does this look cool or what...

Euro 216 hours:

Caribbean low seems to weaken a bit but the low east of Florida is something to see.





Looks like it could be a 50-60 mph. Subtropical Storm. I could be wrong though...
242. xcool






show low by Caribbean
Quoting Drakoen:


warm core seclusion


Ehh no this is not that kind of system. There is no front-wrapping or warm-pool trapping going on here. This is a trough-split initiating a surface low baroclinically, and then adopting the surface circulation and converting it to subtropical, shallowly warm-core.
Quoting Drakoen:


warm core seclusion



warm-core seclusions (warm seclusion) are asymmetric shallow warm-core features. The phase diagrams still does not show this early in the cycle.
Quoting Levi32:


Ehh no this is not that kind of system. There is no front-wrapping or warm-pool trapping going on here. This is a trough-split initiating a surface low baroclinically, and then adopting the surface circulation and converting it to subtropical, shallowly warm-core.


That's not what I see. That long tail on the eastern side of the system that nearly stretches down towards the Caribbean looks frontal in nature.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Looks like something's building right above your head, young man! :)


Got it OZ and Tornadodude I think we can meet up...
We should be in Joplin at around 7 or 8 pm on Saturday....

Becarful out there...

Taco :o)
The GFS deepens a passing longwave trough into the previously cut-off piece, which brings the system northward and starts re-converting it back to cold-core. The European has the system developing later than the GFS, thereby missing the trough and getting stuck to the south by the New England blocking ridge.



Quoting Weather456:



warm-core seclusions (warm seclusion) are asymmetric shallow warm-core features. The phase diagrams still does not show this early in the cycle.


Cyclone phase space diagnostics portray a thermally warm core and symmetric frontal structure.
Quoting Patrap:
La,La,la...

NEXSAT, Das Oil Plume


That shows it clearly... it is more than just a rainbow sheen that has been pulled into the loop current. Bad news.
Latest Update from tornadodude:

His team was at a gas station in Hereford when decked-out pro chasers (vehicle - uniforms) pulled in.

They spoke to each other.

Both teams now are headed for Clovis, NM. Potential for some damaging hail, etc.

So it is now official...

XtremeHurricanes.com will be broadcasting another live severe storm chase this afternoon featuring tornadodude! I will be sure to update broadcast times appropriately.


Oz---
Quoting Drakoen:


That's not what I see. That long tail on the eastern side of the system that nearly stretches down towards the Caribbean looks frontal in nature.


Well by the time the longwave trough starts bringing this north there is some cold advection on the western side of the system, which makes the tail appear like a front. The upper cut-off low at this time is pretty dang big on the GFS, a little too big. At this point the system is already going back to baroclinic roots. It does not start that way though.

GFS 180 hours 850mb height/wind/temp:



GFS 180 hours 500mb:

Quoting Weather456:



warm-core seclusions (warm seclusion) are asymmetric shallow warm-core features. The phase diagrams still does not show this early in the cycle.


They do not have to be asymmetric. Think of the big winter spirals. They can be symmetric and found in the symmetric warm-core region of the phase diagrams.
Quoting JamesSA:


How do you interpret this "feature" streaming to the southeast from that oil spill?

It could be a thin rainbow sheen film on the surface reflecting the sun glint.

But, if you enlarge the photo and examine i closely, it appears to be showing an UNDERWATER plume of dispersant laden oil that has been picked up the loop current. That would be a much more serious development.

Any thoughts on this?


If you look at the Gulf Stream Loop......at the North end it would follow that SE turn as the picture shows look at the loop below...




Quoting Levi32:


Well by the time the longwave trough starts bringing this north there is some cold advection on the western side of the system, which makes the tail appear like a front. The upper cut-off low at this time is pretty dang big on the GFS, a little too big. At this point the system is already going back to baroclinic roots. It does not start that way though.

GFS 180 hours 850mb height/wind/temp:



GFS 180 hours 500mb:



The low appears heavily baroclinic in its initiation despite the cut-off. Still frontal like features.
The Euro, however, has this get completely cut-off and is at least subtropical. There are no frontal characteristics here, although a trough of low pressure extends to the east and eventually links up with an old front:

thats a neat loop TampaSpin

the eddys look like compact cyclones lol
Quoting CycloneOz:
Latest Update from tornadodude:

His team was at a gas station in Hereford when decked-out pro chasers (vehicle - uniforms) pulled in.

They spoke to each other.

Both teams now are headed for Clovis, NM. Potential for some damaging hail, etc.

So it is now official...

XtremeHurricanes.com will be broadcasting another live severe storm chase this afternoon featuring tornadodude! I will be sure to update broadcast times appropriately.


Oz---

ok Thanks That will be so Cool.
I'm going to wish I was there with them....

Taco :o)
Quoting CycloneOz:
Latest Update from tornadodude:

His team was at a gas station in Hereford when decked-out pro chasers (vehicle - uniforms) pulled in.

They spoke to each other.

Both teams now are headed for Clovis, NM. Potential for some damaging hail, etc.

So it is now official...

XtremeHurricanes.com will be broadcasting another live severe storm chase this afternoon featuring tornadodude! I will be sure to update broadcast times appropriately.


Oz---


That is exactly the same as the plot line in Twister!
Quoting Drakoen:


Cyclone phase space diagnostics portray a thermally warm core and symmetric frontal structure.


I don't understand, that basically illustrates what I just pointed out except they also found in the tropical cyclone phase.
Thunderstorms to the left (west) of me, thunderstorms to the right (east), here I am stuck in the middle with you (scattered convection to the south of Arlington, TX, a few built up cumulus that do not look very promising to the north):o(...

We want rain, we want rain, we want rain.

Quoting Levi32:
The Euro, however, has this get completely cut-off and is at least subtropical. There are no frontal characteristics here:



Looking at that there are no frontal characteristics but looking at this the 850mb temps on the western side of the system are cooler than on the eastern side.

Quoting Weather456:


The ECMWF intensifies the feature and retrograde back to Florida.

The GFS takes it out to sea.

The system retrogrades back west under a blocking ridge.

Similar scenario to Andrea 2007

It weakens the SW Caribbean disturbance as it heads towards Hispaniola



The ECMWF also seems to be developing the ridge of more aggressively the GFS. During the 00z and the 06z runs, the GFS was more in consensus with the ECMWF. The 12z GFS is pointing out a different scenario.



Quoting Weather456:


I don't understand, that basically illustrates what I just pointed out except they also found in the tropical cyclone phase.


See Levi's post 254.

And that diagram proves my point that they can be symmetric.
Quoting Drakoen:


See Levi's post 254.

And that diagram proves my point that they can be symmetric.


ok, the genesis of warm seclusion are the same for both phase though. I do not think this will be a warm seclusion.
Good afternoon


Here is the "looking ahead" part of the latest San juan NWS discussion, I found it interesting and the last sentance even made me smile :


LOOKING AHEAD...STILL APPEARS THAT BRIEF OVERALL DRYING "MAY"
OCCUR FOR THE SECOND PART OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...
BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
BEYOND...WITH THE "POTENTIAL" FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF
ACTIVE WEATHER AND "POTENTIAL" HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY AS WE TRANSITION INTO LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. IT IS MAY IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. STAY TUNED.



Promising. Things will need to be monitored for possible rain events.
yea it seems the GFS and ECMWF are painting completely different features

The GFS shows something more frontal in nature moving north and eventually northeast or absorb

The ECMWF shows something much more tropical in nature and a building ridge
New Blog
Hello all! Seems GFS and the Euro have an Andrea like system off Florida per the discussion above.. will be interesting to see what comes to play. Its amazing that Tampa's post 223 shows that the E Caribbean can support a 900 mb system in May..
Quoting JamesSA:


How do you interpret this "feature" streaming to the southeast from that oil spill?

It could be a thin rainbow sheen film on the surface reflecting the sun glint.

But, if you enlarge the photo and examine i closely, it appears to be showing an UNDERWATER plume of dispersant laden oil that has been picked up the loop current. That would be a much more serious development.

Any thoughts on this?


In looking at the image you posted and the links to much larger images of the same area posted by PAt (Thanks, Pat!) it sure doesn't look like "sheen", at least not at the SE portion of the plume...
Quoting Drakoen:


Looking at that there are no frontal characteristics but looking at this the 850mb temps on the western side of the system are cooler than on the eastern side.



It's not baroclinic when the surface low is stacked directly below the 500mb low.



Most of the cooler 850mb temps in the region are a reflection of the surface temps which are cooler due to cooler SSTs. Earlier maps, such as at 168 hours, show no such appearance of cold advection on the western side:

Is Im not mistaken 2008 seems to fall in the number of storms Im predicting for this season 16 8 4... Anyone else in here made a prediction yet? Always interesting to see others numbers..
Quoting StormW:


Afternoon StormW!
Could you discuss what the models are showing with the potential hybrid low?
279. xcool
16-7-4
281. xcool
new blog
I will go with an ACE index of 150...that would seem to average out 16 8 4 ? anyones input appreciated
Quoting stormhank:
I will go with an ACE index of 150...that would seem to average out 16 8 4 ? anyones input appreciated
I believe your numbers are realistic to say the least. I waited until May-15 to make a prediction. I came up with 15/10/5 with 3 of the major hurricanes becoming cat-5,s.
Quoting Weather456:


The ECMWF intensifies the feature and retrograde back to Florida.

The GFS takes it out to sea.

The system retrogrades back west under a blocking ridge.

Similar scenario to Andrea 2007

It weakens the SW Caribbean disturbance as it heads towards Hispaniola






THis scenerio would be horrible as the flow around the low would push alot of oil towards florida's west coast,this split trough/transition to TD then moving towards the SE coast seems like a feasable solution,IMO