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Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. ncstorm
the is the JMA at hour 144

1002. Levi32
Quoting Eyewall07:


Hello Levi

Assuming a southerly path would a strong ts or cat 1 still suffer the same fate in the graveyard or could it possibly survive a trip to the gulf ?


The stronger it is the easier it would be to survive a trek into the Caribbean, but even hurricanes have a tough time. Remember Tomas in 2010, a category 2 hurricane at the Lesser Antilles, but then basically died for a while immediately upon entering the eastern Caribbean due almost entirely to strong trade winds ripping out the circulation.

GFDL with the lower pressure in 60 hours


HWRF with the lower pressure at the 78 hours a little mores slow

1004. SLU
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, July 30th, with Video


fantastic!
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Southern California to TX and over to FL will have a wet winter ahead.


I sure hope so! Here in SooCal,we seem to get more rain when El Nino peaks in NDJ,DJF or JFM time frames.This El Nino might be over by then and then it's a real crapshoot. Still no rain since April..but this is in the forecast.



We shall see!


Look at the Ogallala aquifer.

It touches about 8 different states in the Midwest.

It's massive.

It provides drinking water for 2 million people.

And it's primarily responsible for 30% of the water this entire country uses for irrigation.

Here's where the cause for concern lies: It may be completely drained within 25 years.

And it takes 6,000 years to refill.

99L needs to gain latitude and go north of the islands to become a interesting system. Shear is destructive in the Caribbean and absolutely nothing that goes through there will survive without a massive anti-cyclone sitting over it. 99L will remain weak for the next few days, but *could* become a depression by the time it gets to ~50W.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


well i googled what it is so now i see what it is.
but i cant change the song. :)


I'm a Stephen King fan...so..
getting virus warnings when I come here. Ia admin aware of this?
Quoting FatPenguin:


First, the two topics are directly linked.

Second, no need to create blogs that will have days or weeks of no activity, i.e. content, when you can have both in the same blog and provide more opportunities for posts.
The request was actually directed at Doc Masters, not at the masses or for their vote on it. Yes, the topics may be generally related but there are obviously two different thoughts on the matter, since the bickering has, is and probably will continue. At quiet times, or off season, you will still have at least one blog of topic that people will talk about - just separate the two topics. I'm sure it can be organized it a way where there will be enough posts based on the "topic of the day!" Again, this is only a request.
1011. ncstorm
Quoting muddertracker:


I'm a Stephen King fan...so..


love Stephen King.."IT" came on Spike this weekend..havent seen that movie in years..nothing like the actual books though which is always best when you really want to know his works..
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good morning I see our little invest that was designated earlier this morning right after the 2am TWO came out is looking better defined although still broad:












If you look at the last frames,a more concentrated area of convection tries to establish.
Quoting Levi32:


The stronger it is the easier it would be to survive a trek into the Caribbean, but even hurricanes have a tough time. Remember Tomas in 2010, a category 2 hurricane at the Antilles, but then basically died immediately upon entering the eastern Caribbean due almost entirely to strong trade winds ripping out the circulation.

I do remember however idk if climatology was on Tomas' side that's Nov this is basically Aug. We will have to let it develop first and see what lies ahead
Thanks Levi
1014. LargoFl
Quoting Waltanater:
The request was actually directed at Doc Masters, not at the masses or for their vote on it. Yes, the topics may be generally related but there are obviously two different thoughts on the matter, since the bickering has, is and probably will continue. At quiet times, or off season, you will still have at least one blog of topic that people will talk about - just separate the two topics. I'm sure it can be organized it a way where there will be enough posts based on the "topic of the day!" Again, this is only a request.
..your doing this on purpose huh
Quoting ENSO2012:
Sadly, Levi is already out to lunch; he thinks that he'll eventually head out to sea, LOL.

I hope he changes his mind about this. Or else he'll be wrong with Ernesto, as he was wrong with Debby back in late June.

This bad bad is headed towards the Caribbean, not north of it.

Oi Dude, I have given you so many chances yet you continue to shoot yourself in your foot, Do you have any feet left. You didn't even watch Levi's video yet you criticize him. You out of anyone should know that weather is NOT and EXACT science, if it was, we wouldn't have this blog.

I hope 99L does nothing but just fizzles out.

Good Bye from my sights Janiel. You've burnt your bridge with me.


TY Saola could go boom soon.






1016. LargoFl
Quoting muddertracker:


I'm a Stephen King fan...so..


who? :)
1018. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
..your doing this on purpose huh
LOL...I actually thought that same thing as I was writing, but no, that was not my oringal purpose, even though it may have now inadvertently fueled the segragation. Again, not my intentions.
"IT" was a creepy clown and "IT'S" real form is some spider like creature which is why I could never watch it.Not a big fan of spiders.
1021. LargoFl
Quoting duajones78413:
getting virus warnings when I come here. Ia admin aware of this?
Yeah, I got that too...as soon as I logged on. It seems to be a fake AV alert and your system is NOT infected with malware. However their server/s might me. Hope they catch it.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
In all likelihood 99L needs to gain latitude and go north of the islands to become a interesting system. Shear is destructive in the Caribbean and absolutely nothing that goes through there will survive without a massive anti-cyclone sitting over it. 99L will remain weak for the next few days, but *could* become a depression by the time it gets to 50W.


the problem is ridge is strong and azores high is located little to the south the only way that i see the low moving to the north is if develops rapidly like the GFDL or CMC is saying, and push the high
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1025. LargoFl
...................................this wave down by cuba looks a whole lot better than the current invest does..we need to watch THIS one also
144 hrs. makes it into the Caribbean this one needs to be watch not just for impacts that it could have to the US in the long range, but for impacts it will most likely have on the Leeward/Windward Islands in the short range.





1027. ncstorm
surface low forming with the wave located under Cuba..of course its heading towards land

Yo!! Taz, Ya here mate????

I should of listened to you from the start. But my kind self thought I should give him a chance. In the end, you were right.

I Apologise how I reacted to you last night.
Friends again Mate!!


_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

Just released...
Severe Weather Bulletin Number ELEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "GENER" (SAOLA)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Monday, 30 July 2012
Typhoon "GENER" has maintained its strength and is now heading towards Eastern Taiwan.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.)
240 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 150 kph

Movement: North Northwest at 7 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday evening
245 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Wednesday evening
420 km North of Basco, Batanes
Thursday evening
640 km North Northwest of Basco Batanes
outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds) Batanes Group of Islands
Signal No. 2
(61-100 kph winds) Cagayan
Calayan Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands
Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds) Isabela
Kalinga
Apayao

Typhoon "GENER" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains and moderate to strong winds over Luzon and Visayas especially the western section.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under Public Storm Warning Signal #3 and #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10 - 20 mm per hour (heavy - intense) within the 700 km diameter of the Typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to the combined effect of Typhoon "Gener" and the Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Quoting Waltanater:
The request was actually directed at Doc Masters, not at the masses or for their vote on it. Yes, the topics may be generally related but there are obviously two different thoughts on the matter, since the bickering has, is and probably will continue. At quiet times, or off season, you will still have at least one blog of topic that people will talk about - just separate the two topics. I'm sure it can be organized it a way where there will be enough posts based on the "topic of the day!" Again, this is only a request.


It's funny I was always the kind of person that just changed the channel whenever I didn't like the station, not leave it on the same channel only to b*@#* about it to everyone.
Quoting Waltanater:
The request was actually directed at Doc Masters, not at the masses or for their vote on it. Yes, the topics may be generally related but there are obviously two different thoughts on the matter, since the bickering has, is and probably will continue. At quiet times, or off season, you will still have at least one blog of topic that people will talk about - just separate the two topics. I'm sure it can be organized it a way where there will be enough posts based on the "topic of the day!" Again, this is only a request.
Just a suggestion : if you don't want "the masses" to respond to something, don't comment about it in the public forum. That's why there's WU Mail...
Quoting ILwthrfan:


It's funny I was always the kind of person that just changed the channel whenever I didn't like the station, not leave it on the same channel to just b*@#* about it to everyone.
It's hard to change the channel when there is only 1 station! LOL
1032. msphar
Rain bands moved past St Croix today, staying largely south of the island.
1033. Gearsts
Quoting StormTracker2K:
El-Nino continues to build in with each passing day. Looking more and more that a strong El-nino is coming by the end of this year.

7/30


7/26
I just cant see what you are saying. Both pic look almost identical.

Im on the western edge of monsoonal moisture surge into Soo Cal.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Look at the Ogallala aquifer.

It touches about 8 different states in the Midwest.

It's massive.

It provides drinking water for 2 million people.

And it's primarily responsible for 30% of the water this entire country uses for irrigation.

Here's where the cause for concern lies: It may be completely drained within 25 years.

And it takes 6,000 years to refill.



I wonder sometimes why we don't have the infrastructure to save water from river flooding and pipe to areas of drought or areas in need of water.I know it cost billions,but our national budget is nearly 4 trillion per year??
Caribbean Storm Update



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Link

Link
Caribbean Storm Update



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Link

Link
1038. buoyboy
The BEST study appears to have been done by a National Laboratory LBNL with minor support from the Koch Foundation.
http://berkeleyearth.org/donors/