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Oil continues impacting Louisiana coast; storms for Caribbean and SE U.S. waters?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on May 20, 2010

Light southeast to east winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, resulting in potential oiling of Louisiana shorelines from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Clouds over the Gulf of Mexico have cleared, and we should get a good view late this afternoon on how far south the oil spill has penetrated into the Loop Current. Statements from NOAA and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data imply that most of the oil that was pulled southwards to the northern boundary of the Loop Current is now caught in a counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to the north of the Loop Current. Some oil has escaped this eddy and is on its way south towards the Florida Keys. This tongue of oil consists of "numerous light sheens with some emulsified patties and streams," according to NOAA. I wish they'd provide more information about what the sensitivity of various ecosystems may be to oil at these concentrations. It would also be good to have more information about what the concentration of the toxic dispersants are in the surface waters of the spill, but I expect no one knows. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about what the oil may do to the fragile Keys ecosystem. SAR imagery from last night and this morning continue to show a large plume of oil being drawn southeastward from the oil spill location into the northern boundary of the Loop Current. With winds expected to remain light over the coming week, I expect oil will continue to be drawn southwards into the Loop Current and the counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to its north. Much of the oil caught in this eddy may circulate around the eddy in 3 or so days, and potentially enter the Loop Current early next week. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is moving chaotically 10+ miles in a single day, making prediction difficult.


Figure 1. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:56am EDT May 20, 2010, by the Canadian Space Agency’s (CSA) RadarSat-1 satellite. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.


Figure 2. Latest oil trajectory forecast from NOAA for this Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU

Potential serious rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the NOGAPS model, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF and GFS models, continue to predict an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, leading to development of a tropical disturbance with heavy rains in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the potential exists for heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in the Tuesday - Thursday time frame next week. It is possible that a tropical depression could form from this tropical disturbance, though most of the models indicate that high levels of wind shear will make this improbable.

Southeast U.S. coastal storm next week could become subtropical
A region of cloudiness and showers just east of the Bahama Islands will develop into a strong extratropical storm over the weekend. This storm is expected to move slowly northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast Sunday and Monday, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The models are divided on whether the storm will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast 6 - 7 days from now, and it is too early to offer odds on this occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to northeasterly winds over the oil spill region Monday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil westwards towards Texas. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a more detailed discussion of the potential development of this system in his blog this morning.

Tornadoes and large hail pound Oklahoma
A significant severe weather outbreak occurred last night over Oklahoma and surrounding states, with 25 tornado reports, 8 reports of damaging winds, and 23 hail reports. Severe weather wunderblogger Dr. Rob Carver has the details in his wunderblog this morning. The Vortex2 field project had a perfect opportunity to intercept these tornadoes, since they were slow moving and occurred over relatively unpopulated regions. The University of Michigan students writing our Vortex2 featured blog will have an update when their schedule allows.


Figure 3. Baseball-sized hail pounds a suburban Oklahoma City swimming pool, making huge splashes, in this remarkable video. The action gets really intense about 90 seconds into the video.

I'll be back with a new post Friday.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. pottery
Wow, Xcool. The shear is doing a sledge-hammer on everything even the wave in the Atl east of here.
When is it forecast to ease up?
Well, that's it for me for tonight. Have a great evening everyone. Catch you tomorrow.
1003. xcool
yeah shear
1004. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


I guess you don't plan to fly the Dreamliner then eh ? LOL

Composites are the wave of the future. Much stronger and lighter. Incidentally, in 2005 the fuel usage for aircraft was a staggering 55 billion gallons.

Yeah, I know that composites are the thing. And will be used in more and more applications. Bad news for us. We seem bent on going ahead with at least 1 aluminium smelter. Although where we get the gas from is another story.
Although all that may change on Monday. New Government then.
Please God!
I tought the shear would go down as El Nino is now gone.
1006. pottery
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I tought the shear would go down as El Nino is now gone.

I guess there is a lag time or ??
But I thought so too.
1007. pottery
I am out .
Stay Safe, all.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I tought the shear would go down as El Nino is now gone.


Its still that time of year (offseason) this current shear is actually normal. It will let up quite soon however.
1009. xcool


1008 MrstormX "Its still that time of year (offseason) this current shear is actually normal. It will let up quite soon however."

Or maybe not. Shear was the point over which ChrisLandsea disagreed with KerryEmanuel about the effects of GlobalWarming. Landsea insisted that shear would increase, thereby decreasing the total number of hurricanes per season.
Within a short while, Emanuel came to appreciate Landsea's reasoning. And the generally accepted consensus has become that the numbers would decrease, but that the excess energy would become concentrated in more powerful hurricanes.

So continuing high shear may have already become the new norm. One can always hope...
...at least for a delay until the DeepwaterHorizon spill is capped.
1013. MahFL
That interview was amazing. It will make a good movie.
1014. MahFL
Damn, the season is a dud.....too much shear !
Quoting MahFL:
Damn, the season is a dud.....too much shear !


Dude, hurricane season didn't even start yet.... shear levels are what they are supposed to be for this time of the year..
1016. Patrap
Oil spill video: Times-Picayune reporter update 6:22 PM
Uploaded by Andrew Boyd, The Times-Picayune









Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I tought the shear would go down as El Nino is now gone.


Its May.

Nino has been dead for about 2 weeks. Wait a bit.
1018. MahFL
Nocarules, I know that silly. it's called sarcasm.
1019. MahFL
And don't address me as dude, Mr Mah is fine.
1020. leo305
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its May.

Nino has been dead for about 2 weeks. Wait a bit.


I hear its actually a little below normal, despite it looking drasticly high
Quoting MahFL:
And don't address me as dude, Mr Mah is fine.

When I visualize saying that (sorry), I'll have to insist on calling you Mr Mah-goo.
(more of that sarcasm stuff you mentioned)

G' nite, all.


nighty night aggie.
Current Tropical Atlantic (MDR) wind shear vs. the climatological average. It has been fluctuating and is currently above climatological average, but looks as if it will start to trend downwards soon.

Tough day in India..

At least eight persons were killed in lightning as a thunderstorm lashed different parts of Malda district of West Bengal on Thursday evening. District Magistrate Sridhar Ghosh said that while four persons were killed in Ratua block, three died in Old Malda and another in Harischandrapur. All the eight were out in the open when they were struck by the thunder bolt. Three children also died after lightning struck them at Kevali village in Bihar’s Jamui district on Thursday, police said. The lightning struck the children when they went to an orchard to pick up mangoes during a storm, they said.


A dust storm swept across the trans-Ganga region on Thursday killing nine people, including two women and a girl child, in Soraon tehsil, 40 km from Allahabad. Trees were uprooted and houses toppled as the gale winds left behind a trail of destruction. In Rajasthan the heatwave tightened its grip with Barmer enduring a hot day at 46.8ºC against Wednesday’s 45.4 ºC followed by Kota at 45.6ºC. Delhi too braved a hot day as the mercury remained above the 41-degree mark. Searing heat prevailed in Punjab and Haryana with Hisar sizzling at 43.5ºC, three notches above normal, followed by Gurgaon at 42.8ºC, two degrees above normal. Akola in the Vidarbha region remained the hottest place across the country at 47.1º C.
Shear looks to be below climatological average for this time of year:

Quoting MahFL:
Damn, the season is a dud.....too much shear !




lol lol lol


it has not even started yet




this is what you call a downcaster
00Z GFS back on board with the potential Caribbean storm, also of course has a Subtropical Storm transitioning to Tropical status.




Certainly not where most believed Development would be in the purple shaded area......LOL
1030. xcool
i'm back put my son to sleep he be bad
1031. xcool
reedzone how may hour???
I certainly hope this does not happen cause it would bring all the Oil onto the Florida coastline.....

1033. xcool


Quoting TampaSpin:




Certainly not where most believed Development would be in the purple shaded area......LOL


yea Tampa, that map is really accounting for where the favorable conditions will be, shear is still too high across the NW Caribbean and Bahamas for anything to happen soon enough to be on that map.

Overall though, when you look at everything, the area near the Bahamas eventually will have a higher chance of development.
1035. xcool
i'm give GFS B+ RIGHT NOWWW..
1036. ackee
anyone has a link to the latest UKMET model run
Quoting xcool:
reedzone how may hour???


It forms after the Subtropical system forms, then eventually in the long range, both storms get squished into a Non-Tropical low and head out to sea.
1038. xcool
reedzone thanks..
so we may see 2 name strorms
As it applies to the gulf spill, its a recession if your neighbor is unemployed it is a depression if you are. So I will say this to all of you whom try to minimize this tragedy in any respect. Guess what the communal response to your problem will be.You were probably responsible for what you get. Now I can go to sleep with out any feelings.
1041. Levi32
0z Canadian 120 hours:

Fresh from the Press

1043. xcool
so GFS AND CMC DO A LOOP ??? RIGHT..
Quoting Levi32:
0z Canadian 120 hours:



Interesting Levi

welcome back, been kind of slow in here the last few hours lol
1045. Patrap
1046. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Interesting Levi

welcome back, been kind of slow in here the last few hours lol


Well it usually is at 1am eastern time lol. I hate being 4 hours behind everyone else....gets really boring. And then my updates in the morning are so dang late to you people in the east...lol.
1047. xcool
lol
Quoting Levi32:


Well it usually is at 1am eastern time lol. I hate being 4 hours behind everyone else....gets really boring. And then my updates in the morning are so dang late to you people in the east...lol.


lol Levi, well I am here and so area few others, so maybe we can have a mini chat for a bit
1051. Levi32
0z Canadian has finished its run. By 144 hours it really winds up the subtropical/tropical storm making landfall in South Carolina, moving very slowly near the coast on Wednesday next week. This TS on the model is likely around 60mph sustained winds, possibly more.

Good night Pat, hey 20% of our fishing in America is off limits today.But just remember globally this is not significant.WE can just get everything we need from Asia. Until they disagree with us.Then we can ask them for our clothes, technology. Thank God we still support our farmers even if they think they are independent. That said I see there is some much tropical weather around I digress.
1054. Patrap
Quoting gordydunnot:
Good night Pat, hey 20% of our fishing in America is off limits today.But just remember globally this is not significant.WE can just get everything we need from Asia. Until they disagree with us.Then we can ask them for our clothes, technology. Thank God we still support our farmers even if they think they are independent. That said I see there is some much tropical weather around I digress.


The United Parishes of Louisiana will survive this too.

Like everything else.

Night' gordydunnot..

Viva Louisiana

I am not convienced yet that anything in the Bahammas will develop yet but, the Deep Caribbean has a better chance with less Shear as this model shows development in that area.

00Z NOGAPS moves the possible caribbean storm more toward the ENE closer to Puerto Rico (begin to remind me hurricane OMAR in october 2008, or Lenny in 1999). Let's see what happens..
1057. Levi32
0z NOGAPS 168 hours 10m wind:

1058. JLPR
Quoting CaribBoy:
00Z NOGAPS moves the possible caribbean storm more toward the ENE closer to Puerto Rico (begin to remind me hurricane OMAR in october 2008, or Lenny in 1999). Let's see what happens..


Now Lenny, that was one crazy hurricane XD
1059. Patrap



Convection is also starting to build in the SW Caribbean sea.. interesting.
1061. xcool
Quoting JLPR:


Now Lenny, that was one crazy hurricane XD


Obviously...
1063. xcool
wow SW Caribbean wowww
1064. Patrap




hey guys please sat on the SW Carib post it
1066. xcool



1067. xcool

1068. xcool
convective blow-up back up..
1069. xcool
i'm use weathertap Enhanced Infrared Satellite update much better...
1071. xcool
1073. Patrap
1074. xcool
Good nite all......we should know probably by Sunday evening if we anything to worry about yet! Nite.
1076. xcool
bye TampaSpin
A word of caution for throwing these 144 hr models around...

1. The margin of error in models beyond 72hrs goes up exponentially, to the point at 144-180 hrs that you often have to name a coastline of multiple states to be safe.

2. Each year, different models do better than others, last year the GFS, EMCWF were the best. The cmc was called "constantly making cyclones" model. So since we are on a new year we have to decipher which are good and which are not so good models for this season.

3. This is a transitioning system, subtropical/tropical/ post-tropical (previously called extratropical). Models may have a rough time calculating these transitions and errors will be extrapolated in later hrs of the runs.
TROPICS MIGHT START BEFORE JUNE 1ST

For those needing that just don't know! Goodnite again all and goodnite Xcool
1079. xcool
:0
Hey xcool long time no speak looks like we could have a little mischief in the caribean and the se coast next week.
1081. xcool
hey ....yeah
Alright im going to bed its 2:24 okay see you tomorrow!
Hey Alexhurricane1991 yes we will have problems very soon
1084. xcool
ok take care
1085. xcool



Link......AXNT20 KNHC 210539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010




CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A SMALL 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM
THE LOW TO W CUBA NEAR 23N84W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 81W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 80W-87W. FURTHER S...TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN MOVING W. SEE ABOVE.
FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF
18N FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO JAMAICA TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 18N88W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...CONTINUED
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
W OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N74W TO 21N74W. AN
EMBEDDED LOW IS ON THE TROUGH NEAR 26N74W. PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
24N-30N BETWEEN 68W-74W. A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 38N42W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
29N67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 32N 73W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N49W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
COAST OF MOROCCO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO DRIFT N WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


Ehh, checked the other website, I had the old 00Z EURO. The new EURO has Tropical Storm Alex making landfall just south of Cape Hatteres, NC
1088. xcool
new run or old .i just post new run...
1089. xcool
have two storm ecmwf wowww
Landfall south of Cape Hatteres, NC 120 hours
TS status


Builds a bit more strength in the Gulf Stream, next to FL after coming off the Carolinas. After a while, a trough comes and shears the whole thing apart.

My newest blog entry pertaining to Louisiana hurricanes is now up. Enjoy!
1092. xcool
i think CARIBBEAN SEAs development first
Good morning to all...had an early night, so an early morning.

He now have a spinning area of low east of the Bahamas centered near 26N-74W. It shows very well on shortwave and infrared imagery.
Good morning, 456.
1095. xcool
hey weather456
1096. xcool
CARIBBEAN SEAs
Morning all.

Just looking in for a couple minutes before work. Wednesday's rainy wx here was enough to impact my work day yesterday, so I didn't get more than a glimpse of the blog yesterday. Not surprisingly, the humidity yesterday was noticeably higher than Tuesday... guess the tropical wx season is really here now.

I'm looking at the two potential rain events for the next 7 days and wondering how much more moisture we can expect. If storm tracks continue to cross into this area, 2010 may turn out to be an anomalously moist year for The Bahamas.
Why don't they name the Arabian Sea TS? How do we know it's a tropical storm and they don't?
Quoting Weather456:
Good morning to all...had an early night, so an early morning.

He now have a spinning area of low east of the Bahamas centered near 26N-74W. It shows very well on shortwave and infrared imagery.
This is more like 26N/70W right now, from what I just saw. And it is what's left of the system that passed through here a couple days ago, isn't it? That was a pretty moist system.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Why don't they name the Arabian Sea TS? How do we know it's a tropical storm and they don't?
all4, I think the Arabian Sea is under the Indian Met Office oversight, and they use 3-min speeds (IIRC). Also they define storms a bit differently.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Why don't they name the Arabian Sea TS? How do we know it's a tropical storm and they don't?


Due to the variety of tropical cyclone forecasting centers across the world, tropical forecasting and naming has become subjective.

Sometimes, the JTWC would name a storm and the local area of responsibility won't, and vice versa. There are differences in policies across each agency. The IMD is an agency which I know, hesitates to name tropical systems.
Ohh OK
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is more like 26N/70W right now, from what I just saw. And it is what's left of the system that passed through here a couple days ago, isn't it? That was a pretty moist system.


That is too far west. You can see the low spinning on infrared here. Its now near 73W.
Something else I am thinking about the potential subtropical for next week is that it is likely to move across some of the cooler waters currently in the tropical part of the basin. The waters off the eastern seaboard haven't been warming as quickly as those in other areas.
1105. kingy
Hi 456, interesting times are starting to return to the tropics front. I wonder just what will happen if and when a storm starts churning that oil up and washing it onshore...


Quoting kingy:
Hi 456, interesting times are starting to return to the tropics front. I wonder just what will happen if and when a storm starts churning that oil up and washing it onshore...


Yea they are. However, I hope that they find a solution to that oil problem soon.
Quoting Weather456:


Due to the variety of tropical cyclone forecasting centers across the world, tropical forecasting and naming has become subjective.

Sometimes, the JTWC would name a storm and the local area of responsibility won't, and vice versa. There are differences in policies across each agency. The IMD is an agency which I know, hesitates to name tropical systems.
I vaguely recall some TC which killed 100 in Pakistan not being named by IMD.... they seem more reluctant on the western side, perhaps because those in the Bay of Bengal generally deepen more rapidly....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Something else I am thinking about the potential subtropical for next week is that it is likely to move across some of the cooler waters currently in the tropical part of the basin. The waters off the eastern seaboard haven't been warming as quickly as those in other areas.


Quoting BahaHurican:
...That was a pretty moist system.


Good morning.

I would say "pretty moist"... yep, we got about nine inches of rain in under 14 hours.

CRS
Quoting Weather456:


That is too far west. You can see the low spinning on infrared here. Its now near 73W.
Isn't 73 MORE west than 70??? [scratching head] I'm pretty sure Nassau is at about 25N 77W, so the 73 doesn't seem far enough away from Long Island and San Sal...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Isn't 73 MORE west than 70??? [scratching head] I'm pretty sure Nassau is at about 25N 77W, so the 73 doesn't seem far enough away from Long Island and San Sal...


meant too far east. My bad
Quoting BahaHurican:
Isn't 73 MORE west than 70??? [scratching head] I'm pretty sure Nassau is at about 25N 77W, so the 73 doesn't seem far enough away from Long Island and San Sal...


at 26N/70W is convection. The system's center is clearly at the edge of the convection.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Good morning.

I would say "pretty moist"... yep, we got about nine inches of rain in under 14 hours.

CRS
Good morning! Long time no see [lol]. The rain was heavy enough to slow traffic on New Providence to a veritable crawl on Wednesday evening. Took me an hour and a quarter to drive a distance that normally takes about 20 minutes....

Quoting Weather456:


So they are not cooler than other parts of the basin? Not cooler than average for this time of year? What about TCHP? (I will admit that we have seen some warming over the last 2 weeks :o)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning! Long time no see [lol]. The rain was heavy enough to slow traffic on New Providence to a veritable crawl on Wednesday evening. Took me an hour and a quarter to drive a distance that normally takes about 20 minutes....

So they are not cooler than other parts of the basin? Not cooler than average for this time of year? What about TCHP? (I will admit that we have seen some warming over the last 2 weeks :o)


some spots are cooler than average but largely speaking warmer than normal.



The SW Atlantic is often warmer than other parts further east along the same latitude.
Quoting Weather456:


meant too far east. My bad
Yeah, well I was eyeballing from NASA interactive viewer w/ no lat/long lines on... so I was only accurate in thinking it had shifted a bit east.... LOL I think we r on the same page now.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning! Long time no see [lol]...
I really enjoyed our visit in the Nassau airport! It is just in the last week or so that I have felt "caught up" after my trip.

The rain was heavy enough to slow traffic on New Providence to a veritable crawl on Wednesday evening. Took me an hour and a quarter to drive a distance that normally takes about 20 minutes....


I didn't even try to leave my place yesterday after the rain quit, I presume that water was too deep over my road for me to drive my car though.
Quoting Weather456:


some spots are cooler than average but largely speaking warmer than normal.



The SW Atlantic is often warmer than other parts further east along the same latitude.
Last week that small patch of cooler-than-average was considerably larger, and 2 weeks ago it was rather cooler. Just another sign that we are getting ever nearer to summer.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I didn't even try to leave my place yesterday after the rain quit, I presume that water was too deep over my road for me to drive my car though.
I was reminded of the first snow day of the winter season in parts north; it was like pple had forgotten how to drive in heavy rains.... lots of flooding across lowlying roads...
456, that SST anomaly map makes me wonder about the CV season. There's a lot of fuel in the eastern section of the MDR,and I don't expect for temps in our area to remain anomalously cool for long.
1120. MahFL
Good morning all.
Hey, just looked at the time! Gotta get out of here 5 minutes ago.... lol

Ya'll have a great day. Hopefully I'll get a chance to look in before tonight to monitor developments.
Hi there Mr. Mah goo d morning to you sir!
Good morning :)

Looks like next several days will be wet, starting as early as this weekend.
Good Morning Folks. Looking at the two areas of interest this morning on the loops (Bahamas area and disturbance in Central America) seems to me that the Bahamas area (as well as the rest of the MDR in the Atlantic) is very hostile due to sheer. However, in the area down by Nicaragua, sheer is low and looks to me like a broad area of low pressure, with some good convective activity, is getting ready to emerge into the Pacific.....I have not looked at models for that region but I'm thinking this may be the beginning of our first E-Pac system of the year.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
Good morning Storm and the rest who are up.
Good morning Floridians coming aboard, I will be back later.
CRS
Both 6Z GFS (240H) and 0Z NGP (156H) move a system ENE/NE over the mona passage very close to PR.
1131. StormW 7:07 AM EDT on May 21, 2010

Good Morning Captain........Translation?
1134. pottery
Good Morning . Nice morning here. Another day of things trying to happen, with shear ruling the roost.
This morning discussion from PR's NWS..


AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WHICH DOMINATED THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW
WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND MOVE NORTH UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA IN LIGHTER BUT DECIDEDLY SOUTHEAST
FLOW FROM TODAY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE AND ONE THAT
FORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL PULL DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THAT WILL GENERATE HEAVY RAINS FROM TIME TO TIME
DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.



Stay tuned... as they like to say
Quoting StormW:


The wave...should it break from the ITCZ and get further north...it would be some thing to watch


Thanks.....The CMISS vort map is not showing anything in that specific area yet but it looks pretty good to me right now and in a low sheer environment at the moment........
1139. Bonedog
Yesterdays Aqua Pass

OMG How sad. The spil is huge and you can see where the streamer or tongue of oil entered the Loop Current and is being sped rapidly. Thankfully its in an Eddy right now. Another observation from that image (zoom to 250M) is that sheen oil I see up near Big Bend or just light refraction?

The spill is getting larger and larger and I like now how all of a sudden after we demand transparency and other professionals have been saying its alot worse then 5K now they up their "estimates" to... "alot more then 5K but still uncertain".

Lets hope someone comes up with a solution to cap this well (hopefully someone other then BP) and actually try to save the Gulf instead of the oil.

Lets keep our fingers crossed that no systems develope or threaten the GOM for a long time.

OK Back to lurking.....
1139. Bonedog 7:19 AM EDT on May 21, 2010

Big Bend area in this photo is light refraction; no reports of oil at all in this area and I'm headed out there (out of St. Marks) for some trout fishing tommorow morning....So far so good in the Big Bend.
1143. Bonedog
Storm and 456 good morning and I would like to say CONGRADULATIONS on becoming featured this tropical season. As always I look foward to your reports and will be keeping a weather eye on the horizon.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning 456!

I have to say, it is nice to be able to put a face with the name!


lol, morning to you. Now you can see who has learned so much from you.
1145. Bonedog
thanks weatherwannabe I figured as much, thus the question, but just wanted verification.

Thanks.
Quoting Bonedog:
Storm and 456 good morning and I would like to say CONGRADULATIONS on becoming featured this tropical season. As always I look foward to your reports and will be keeping a weather eye on the horizon.


Much thanks.
Everything becoming clearer

1150. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:


lol, morning to you. Now you can see who has learned so much from you.


Hey, 456! You're right, Storm!

BTW, loved the post! What do you think will happen with the Bahamas system in terms of development? I think it will at least be an Invest.
The LLC is elongated and I picked up two small vortices. This is a typical hybrid low.
Good morning. 456,you think it will be invest later today?
Quoting cg2916:


Hey, 456! You're right, Storm!

BTW, loved the post! What do you think will happen with the Bahamas system in terms of development? I think it will at least be an Invest.


It's all on my blog....

I also think it will be atleast an invest with a moderate chance of becoming STS Alex.
1154. cg2916
Quoting StormW:


I'd say that's a TD, maybe a weak TS
1155. Bonedog
Yes long time LOL Just been so busy lately. I have been lurking and droping a few posts about the oil from time to time =)

I have been using Doc's cummulus method to spot the outskirts and it is really helping to see the enourmus size of this slick. Basically looking at the "area of uncertanty" lines is where the actual slick is in the NOAA charts. Just by the outline of the clouds.

I will be down in FL soon and spending some quality time there so hopefully I will be posting more with my feet in the sugar sand and a cold maragarita in my hand =) hehehe and finally clearing my mind. So as usual keep an eye on the horizon, the storms follow me LOL
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
456,you think it will be invest later today?


As simple as that question looks, its tough for me to answer. The reason why, is that a designation of an invest is subjective rather than objective.

The best way to answer that question is to tell you when I feel it should be an invest rather than tell you when the NHC will designate it one (which is impossible to know from here).

I think it should be an invest sometime this weekend, the NHC may or may not agree, hence, subjectivity.
Good Morning!

Looks like the area in the SW Caribbean has been discounted by most models. Looks like our primary focus now is the subtropical system east of the Bahamas. I think we might have an invest by early tomorrow morning if the system can organize more.

Hello StormW and 456! What's your take on this system over by the Bahamas?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hello StormW and 456! What's your take on this system over by the Bahamas?


Blog Update

Low pressure system develops east of the Bahamas; No change to Caribbean potential

1162. pottery
Loads of moisture everywhere
and sea surface temps are high.
This could be a real bad year
and there's several reasons why.
Nino is gone and Nina comes
we all know what that means,
Or in case you dont, check the sums
it means stock your shelves with beans.
And what about that BA high
controlling tracks and stuff?
Looks like Westward Ho! to me
this season could be rough.
And adding oil upon the waters?
not going to work this time,
someboddy made a boo-boo
and the Gulf is filled with slime.
The fish dont like it, it's really bad,
and every day there's more,
There's not a single reason to be glad
but I guess we can blame Al Gore.
Quoting pottery:
Loads of moisture everywhere
and sea surface temps are high.
This could be a real bad year
and there's several reasons why.
Nino is gone and Nina comes
we all know what that means,
Or in case you dont, check the sums
it means stock your shelves with beans.
And what about that BA high
controlling tracks and stuff?
Looks like Westward Ho! to me
this season could be rough.
And adding oil upon the waters?
not going to work this time,
someboddy made a boo-boo
and the Gulf is filled with slime.

The fish dont like it, it's really bad,
and every day there's more,
There's not a single reason to be glad
but I guess we can blame Al Gore.


Bravo! lol
Quoting StormW:


I'm still doing analysis on and off right now...I still believe it has the potential for STS status. ECMWF right now brings it to NC/VA border, with at least 40-45 mph sustained.
Yup I saw that.

ECMWF 00z 144 Hours

11:15 UTC - Zoom-in on the Bahamian low.

No, it's not June 1; but there's a chance the first storm of the season will form this weekend

By Eliot Kleinberg Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Updated: 4:43 p.m. Thursday, May 20, 2010
Posted: 4:34 p.m. Thursday, May 20, 2010

Oh, and by the way.

There's a chance - right now, just a chance - that a subtropical or tropical storm will form north of Hispaniola late this weekend or early next week.

It would get the first name on the 2010 list: Alex.

Jim Lushine, retired warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Miami office, said today in an email he believes it's "likely" the storm will form. He also believes it will move northwest toward the Florida-Georgia state line "but directly will do little but stir up some waves at the beaches."

National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen was more guarded.

"Some of the models are trying to spin up an area of low pressure. Whether it's tropical, subtropical or no tropical we don't know yet," he said.

"It's not unusual at all, especially in that part of the world," Feltgen said.

"It's not like somebody throws a switch on June 1," Feltgen said. That date, which marks the official start of the season, is just a week and a half away.

Tropical Storm Arthur formed May 31, 2008. The last one before that was Arlene, which formed off Cuba May 6, 1981.

Subtropical Storm Andrea formed off the North Florida coast on May 9, and subtropical storm Ana looped about in the Atlantic 200 miles south of Bermuda for nine days in April 2003. April!

Of 1,354 tropical storms recorded in the Atlantic Ocean between 1851 and 2007, only 18 formed in May, and only four became hurricanes. None struck land. Between 1966 and 2007 only four formed in May and one became a hurricane.

(Eliot Kleinberg is a highly respected local historian and author of the book, "Black Cloud", about the 1928 Lake Okeechobee Hurricane).
Quoting StormW:


Because those images are under subscriptions at weathertap, those persons who are not signed up with them can not see the images if you hotlink them. I can see them because I have an account with them but if you would log out of weathertap and view the blog you wouldn't see anything.

The best thing to do is save them to your computer and upload them to a image hosting website like imageshack.
1170. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N74W WILL MOVE N OVER
THE WATERS BETWEEN 69W AND 73W THROUGH TUE WHILE TRAILING A
BROAD TROUGH S TO HISPANIOLA.

Pressures drop drastically at buoy 41047 overnight but is now rising due to the daily atmospheric tides

1172. ackee
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup I saw that.

ECMWF 00z 144 Hours

Can I get a link to the ECMWF
1173. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting pottery:
Loads of moisture everywhere
and sea surface temps are high.
This could be a real bad year
and there's several reasons why.
Nino is gone and Nina comes
we all know what that means,
Or in case you dont, check the sums
it means stock your shelves with beans.
And what about that BA high
controlling tracks and stuff?
Looks like Westward Ho! to me
this season could be rough.
And adding oil upon the waters?
not going to work this time,
someboddy made a boo-boo
and the Gulf is filled with slime.
The fish dont like it, it's really bad,
and every day there's more,
There's not a single reason to be glad
but I guess we can blame Al Gore.
LOL. Now I see Oz is not the only poet on here. Good job !
guuys I think that our carib storm might suprise us in the coming days
Now this is preliminary data please approach with caution but I think we may have 90L soon

fal902010.dat ( 05/21/2010 12:19:00 PM)

This is from the TPC ftp site but I'm not a 100% sure as yet.
Ok its official we have 90L

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201005211219
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010052112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010052012, , BEST, 0, 270N, 718W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052018, , BEST, 0, 272N, 717W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052100, , BEST, 0, 274N, 717W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052106, , BEST, 0, 276N, 720W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052112, , BEST, 0, 275N, 723W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

invest_al902010.invest
It's 90L on the Navy site as well.
Let's say hello to Invest 90L.
1180. kingy
the recent bp video of the leak still shows oil billowing out of the pipe even though they are collecting 5000 barrels a day of slurry on the surface , so lets say that the well has been leaking a conservative 10,000 barrels a day for 31 days. Thats over 13 million gallons so far, more than the exxon disaster. That will come ashore sometime, maybe a hurricane in a few months. Maybe a tide in a week. Who knows ? But I am amazed that is a minor item on many news stations still. Will they only wake up when the oil starts coming ashore ?
1181. kingy
here is the live video feed of the oik leak, looks like loads is coming out at the moment