WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

October hurricane season outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on October 02, 2008

Climatologically, the first half of October is part of the peak portion of hurricane season. Activity does not begin to drop off significantly until mid-October (Figure 1). During the 13-year active Atlantic hurricane period that began in 1995, we've averaged 2.7 named storms, 1.1 hurricanes, and 0.5 intense hurricanes during the month of October. The busiest October on record was 2005, when seven named storms, three hurricanes, and one intense hurricane occurred (including Wilma, the strongest hurricane on record).


Figure 1. Climatology of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms.

Far fewer Cape Verdes-type hurricanes form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands during October, compared to September (Figure 2). Many of those that do form recurve out to sea, and the odds are that hurricane season is over for the Lesser Antilles Islands. Only four October hurricanes have affected these islands since 1851. Hurricane season is also probably over for Texas, which which has only seen three October hurricanes since 1851. Hurricane season is definitely not over for Central America, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the U.S. coast from Louisiana to New England, plus Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the islands of the central and western Caribbean.


Figure 2. Tracks of all hurricane and tropical storms forming in the first half of October.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and oceanic heat content are declining now, but are still plenty warm enough to support a major hurricane in some regions. In particular, the entire Caribbean is 0.5-1.0°C above average in temperature, as are the waters off the U.S. East Coast (Figure 3). The waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas are quite cool, due to the lingering effects of the passage of Hurricanes Ike and Gustav. Due to these SST patterns, a major hurricane would be most likely to affect the Western Caribbean.


Figure 3. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for October 2, 2008. Image credit: NOAA.

Wind Shear
The latest 15-day wind shear forecast from the GFS model predicts that wind shear across the tropical Atlantic will remain in the average to below average range. In the longer term, wind shear is predicted by NOAA's CFS model to remain below average over the Caribbean for October through December.

When will activity pick up again?
There is an oscillation in the atmosphere I've talked a little about, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator, and can act to boost hurricane activity when it propagates into the Atlantic. The MJO has a period of about 30-60 days, and is currently in its active phase over the Atlantic. According to the latest 15-day GFS model forecast and the MJO discussion from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, we are expected to remain in an active phase for the MJO over the Atlantic for at least the next two weeks. This year, the active phase of the MJO has been strongly correlated with formation of named storms in the Atlantic. According to the latest analysis by Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (Table 4, below), ten of the last eleven named storms in the Atlantic this year formed during an active phase of the MJO. We can anticipate an above average chance of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this October as a result.



The forecast
Due to above average SSTs in the Caribbean, an active phase of the MJO, and average to below average wind shear over the tropical Atlantic this month, we can expect levels of tropical storm activity similar to what has been seen in past Octobers, since the current active hurricane phase began in 1995. However, the models are showing nothing forming over the next week, and the tropics look pretty quiet right now. In consequence, I am expecting two named storms and one hurricane this month. There is a 50/50 chance this hurricane will be an intense hurricane. The October forecast from Colorado State University is more aggressive, and calls for 3 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and one major hurricane.

Steering currents
Now that it is October, the jet stream is more active and farther south, resulting in increased chances of recurvature for tropical cyclones. However, the latest 15-day GFS model forecast predicts more high pressure than usual over the Eastern U.S., which will result in longer recurvature delays than is usual for October storms. Thus, the risk of an October hurricane hitting the U.S. East Coast is higher than average this year.

Summary of Hurricane Ike relief efforts
When a major hurricane hits, relief efforts are always confused and don't reach many areas with great needs. Thus, a group of wunderground bloggers mobilized the day after Ike hit to help out. Their goal was to provide immediate help where traditional aid efforts were coming short, with a focus on providing equipment for people with disabilities and a full spectrum of relief supplies to smaller communities often neglected. Traditional, professional relief efforts are weighed down by bureaucracy and cannot respond as nimbly as smaller, grass-roots relief efforts can. I believe our dollars have been well-spent by the relief effort organized by our own Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie, under the banner of Portlight Strategies, Inc. They have responded quickly and delivered much-needed aid to communities hard-hit by Ike that were being under-served. The people involved in the relief effort were very passionate about serving, and they have sacrificed their time, sleep, health, and money to support this cause. I support their efforts to continue spending the money that was donated to the cause in the way intended. The passion they put into this effort led to conflicts when disagreements arose over how to operate this effort, though. In the haste to go from zero to 100 mph in a few days, and without a supporting bureaucracy or strategic plan to guide their efforts, it should be no surprise that there was confusion and mis-communication. I do not fault any of the people involved for the problems that have arisen. Rather, blame Hurricane Ike! Hurricanes cause chaos, and there was certainly plenty of that on the blogs last weekend. It's good to have these kinds of problems, which are, in part, due to the extraordinary and unexpected generosity of all of you who have contributed.

During a one hour conference call I participated in yesterday, Paul Timmons, Jr. (AKA Presslord), one of the founding Board members of portlight.org, pulled together a new advisory board for portlight.org. The board members are myself, Patrick Pearson (Patrap), John Wilbanks (Storm Junkie), Rob Ingham (Rainman32), Deb Nowinski (EmmyRose), and Kelly Timmons (Paul's wife, and accountant for Portlight.org). It was agreed at the meeting that Paul would been given the final authority to write all checks, but that the board would advise him on how the money should be spent. When a check is written, all members of the board will receive a notification via email. The current plan is to spend the available funds to deliver donated goods (mostly medical equipment for people with disabilities) to the Hurricane Ike devastation areas. The goods will be delivered by ground freight shipments, and by rented trucks driven by some of the advisory board members. About $9000 of the donated money will not be spent at this time, because it has been put in escrow at the advice of Portlight's lawyer. This money is being held in escrow because of the threat of legal action made against Portlight in the chaos last weekend. The money will remain in escrow until Portlight's lawyer advises them otherwise.

Now that the chaos has subsided and everyone on the advisory board has agreed we should move ahead, I am ready to once again endorse contributions. The WUBA Hurricane Ike relief fund, initially founded by Patrap, is controlled by Portlight Strategies, Inc., a 501c3 charity run by Paul Timmons, Jr. (Presslord) and three other board members. All donations are 100% tax deductible. The mission statement of Portlight is co-opting with individuals as well as other organizations to cut through red tape in order to directly meet the specific needs of unserved, under served, and forgotten people.

Donations can be sent via check and via PayPal. The funds are then transferred to the portlight.org checking account, and Presslord has been writing checks from this account to fund the relief efforts. As of this writing, there is about $1000 "stuck" in a defunct PayPal account because of a dispute over protocol. An agreement has been reached that this money will be released to the portlight.org checking account and used to fund relief efforts, though. Here's a breakdown of how much money has been donated, and how much spent. Figures are rounded to the nearest $100. More details can be found on StormJunkie's blog:

Total money donated: $31,200 (about 400 donors)
Total money spent so far: $10,350
Total money in the portlight.org checking account: $21,000
--$9,000 in escrow for legal defense
--$12,000 available for immediate relief operations
Total money in the original Paypal account set up by Patrap: $1000
Total money in the new Paypal account set up by Presslord: $250

Here's how the $10350 has been spent:

WalMart - $2000 - supplies
Costco - $1000 - supplies
Patrick Pearson (Patrap) - $1000 (fuel, rental costs for a truck)
Truck from Charleston - $1500 - fuel
Florida supply truck - $2100 - escort, credentialing, fuel, vehicle repair, lodging
Crew food,lodging, transport home - $1000
Truck rental, gas for truck from Atlanta - $1750

The biggest coup for the effort came when Paul arranged to get about $150,000 worth of medical equipment donated to the cause. Rob Ingham (AKA Rainman32) and Roger Knight (AKA NLimbo) received took a rented truck to Atlanta, grabbed the gear, and delivered it to Houston. In the shipment:

Four Gaylord boxes medical supplies
-Soft casts
-various catheter kits
-catheter bags
-oxygen tubing kits
-other misc. medical supplies
13 hospital bed mattresses and pressure pads
2 Gaylord boxes of sanitized walkers (20 per box)
4 Gaylord boxes of unsanitized walkers (20 per box)
2 pallets with two electric wheelchairs each (4)
100 pairs of crutches
30 bedside commodes sanitized
6 gerry chairs

I've been impressed by the dedication and effort put into this work by all the people involved. This is a much-needed humanitarian effort that has sprung up from the remarkable community we have here. I thank each one of you for participating. I do ask that all comments about the relief efforts on this blog be positive ones. There is no need to point out the mistakes of the past, which are painfully obvious. Portlight has plans to extend this effort into the future, and I plan to become a regular donor in coming years for the future hurricane disasters that will inevitably visit our shores.

If there's no activity or forecast activity in the tropics, I may leave this blog up for a few days.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'm still here...
Oops -see you are.

The Pro version has updated capacity for importing info through batch files, not like the individual way I do it.

The $20 version, which I have, can also do it, but won't separate it like we have into the states.
Quoting zoomiami:
Orca, 4Frtmyers - are you still here?

I was just having that discussion with my husband about the google versions.


By the way... I just figured out a very simple way to move people around on the map.. to get them out of the water :)
The biggest thing that I see about the pro version in addition to batch adding info (like MLS listings) is that the images that can be used are professional quality, like the link that I posted earlier.

I don't know about faster though - the program is pretty slow.

By taking the altitude off?
Quoting zoomiami:
Is anyone on from Louisiana tonight? I need to divide the state up for purposes of google earth, and would like to know how you refer to the different areas.

Texas also.

What happens is when I get too many names in a state, its easier to divide up by geographic region.

Florida is divided into south, central, north.

TIA


Texas: Hell, The Other Half & Oklahoma
Quoting zoomiami:
By taking the altitude off?


Nope.. right click on the nick.. select properties....and just move it where you want.. then click ok :)

On the actual map it self
According to the web site, we could try it free for 7 days. Would be interesting to see what we can do with it.

Yes - that's how I move them around. I also found that if I can in and change the altitude to ground level, it gets most everybody out of the water.

Quoting Orcasystems:


Nope.. right click on the nick.. select properties....and just move it where you want.. then click ok :)
Quoting zoomiami:
According to the web site, we could try it free for 7 days. Would be interesting to see what we can do with it.



If the accountant can figure out, why I would need it.. ie: deductible business expense.. then she will let me :)
Texas: Hell, The Other Half & Oklahoma

Lol

Another night owl I see
Because you can plot your clients, see your concentrations, where you need to put in dealers, etc.

Your in sales, shouldn't be hard to justify.
Quoting zoomiami:
Texas: Hell, The Other Half & Oklahoma

Lol

Another night owl I see


hehe its only 954 here :)
You guys are up late
Quoting zoomiami:
Because you can plot your clients, see your concentrations, where you need to put in dealers, etc.

Your in sales, shouldn't be hard to justify.


Like I said.. she says no more often then SWMBO'ed

She almost had a heart attack when I bought a Magnum as my business car. Key word.. bought.. not leased
Orca - check your mail.

And what is a Magnum?
Never mind - looked it up.
Quoting zoomiami:
Orca - check your mail.

And what is a Magnum?
And does it come with champagne?
Quoting zoomiami:
Orca - check your mail.

And what is a Magnum?


I like to call it an old mans station waggon :)
Quoting 4rtMyersGuy:
And does it come with champagne?


No, but the wife said something about Jewelry when I brought it home.. I might have forgot to tell her I bought it.
I like to call it an old mans station waggon :)

I take offense at the old part - since we are the same age.
As in, oh yea, there's a new car in the drive, picked it up today?

lol
Quoting zoomiami:
I like to call it an old mans station waggon :)

I take offense at the old part - since we are the same age.



ummmmmmmmmm ohhhhhhhhhhhh ummmmmmmmm........ nope.. been good. going to stay that way.. not sure how much polish I have left
Quoting zoomiami:
As in, oh yea, there's a new car in the drive, picked it up today?

lol


Actually.... yes

She did make a statement that has cost me money since....

her statement..

"I thought we talked over major purchases before we made them, I am sure glad that restriction has been lifted".. and off she went shopping.
My theory in my house is, don't care what he spends the money on, just don't complain when the bill comes in.
Yep - will get you every time.

526. TRT
Can anyone explain the procedure for the rain collector and snowfall? I understand it will measure the water content of the snowfall as it melts, but I am confused about the reporting of rainfall when it is actually snowfall. I just installed a heater in the collector for this winters freezing temps here. Gee, I hope I am phrasing this question right, it is ruff being a lowend novice!
One day your wife will say at the coroner's inquest, "I don't know what happened. He must have slipped."
Quoting TRT:
Can anyone explain the procedure for the rain collector and snowfall? I understand it will measure the water content of the snowfall as it melts, but I am confused about the reporting of rainfall when it is actually snowfall. I just installed a heater in the collector for this winters freezing temps here. Gee, I hope I am phrasing this question right, it is ruff being a lowend novice!


Sounds like a good question - but there might not be anyone around to answer. If you don't find out tonight - post again in the morning.

Quoting zoomiami:
Orca - check your mail.

And what is a Magnum?


Its a bullet designation we ignorant southerners prefer if we're going to our guns.
Quoting TRT:
Can anyone explain the procedure for the rain collector and snowfall? I understand it will measure the water content of the snowfall as it melts, but I am confused about the reporting of rainfall when it is actually snowfall. I just installed a heater in the collector for this winters freezing temps here. Gee, I hope I am phrasing this question right, it is ruff being a lowend novice!


I typed this into Google rain collector and snowfall and got a lot of information.. that might help
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Its a bullet designation we ignorant southerners prefer if we're going to our guns.

I prefer the 41 to the 44
532. KRL
Just catching up on the the past few days relief efforts conflicts situation. Yipes!

Is everything fully resolved now and did the accounting issues get worked out with receipts?

Is Pat still banned?

My only comment is it seems really sad, pathetic and a bit ridiculous that 1/3rd of the money raised is now in a legal defense fund.

:(
On the last note of post 532, I am off for the night :) Have fun, play safe.. and Shen, keep your powder dry..
Quoting Orcasystems:

I prefer the 41 to the 44


44 better for Grizz. Doesn't deflect when hits bells.
536. TRT
Quoting zoomiami:


Sounds like a good question - but there might not be anyone around to answer. If you don't find out tonight - post again in the morning.

Quoting Orcasystems:


I typed this into Google rain collector and snowfall and got a lot of information.. that might help


Yes, I have been there already, havent found information regarding my question on reporting rain verses snow. But I did find out one can save $50.00 if they purchase the heater other than from Davis.
MCCAIN WILL SCREW UP AMERICA LIKE BUSH DID!!!!!!!!!!!!
DAMN republicans have FUCKED up this country
BASTARDS want to BAN gay marriage
THAT IS DISCRIMINATION- KEEP YOUR FUCKING RELIGION OUT OF THE LAW!!!!!!!
AMERICA IS A JUDEO-CHRISTIAN DEMOCRACY, NOT A TRUE DEMOCRACY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANKS TO STUPID RELIGIOUS FUCKING REPUBLICANS! SHIT OFF SOME FUCK, ASS.
HEY RELIGIOUS REPUBLICANS- TAKE YOUR GAY MARRIAGE BAN BILL AND SHOVE IT UP YOUR RICH, GREEDY ASS, FUCKERS!!!!
OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!!!!
HUNTING = MURDER!!!
IT IS EVIL TO HUNT ANIMALS
THEY HAVE THE RIGHT TO LIFE
FUCKING SARAH PALIN SHOT SOME MOOSE
FUCKING MURDERER

GENOCIDAL FUCKING BASTARDS WORK AT MEAT FACTORIES
AND KILL INNOCENT ANIMALS
STOP ANIMAL CRUELTY NOW!!!!!!!!!!!
So is that little ball of convection in the nw Carribean the beginnings of a new system? Is there any spin to it?
Tropicsdude you need some help.
Hey hurrmich it looks like there are 3 spins in the Caribbean one just entering se carb.. one coming off north coast of Venezuela, and the spin off Belize.I believe between this three one will develop in the western Caribbean. That will likely be the last big excitement of this season. Just my guess. Id say Sat. thru Sunday possible TD
552. Enola
#532 Quoting KRL:


Dr. Master's has a rather detailed synopsis of the current status of our relief efforts at the end of today's blog. Looks like things are on track once more.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Hey hurrmich it looks like there are 3 spins in the Caribbean one just entering se carb.. one coming off north coast of Venezuela, and the spin off Belize.I believe between this three one will develop in the western Caribbean. That will likely be the last big excitement of this season. Just my guess. Id say Sat. thru Sunday possible TD


Nah, I'd say Monday or Tuesday. Will take time to get organized, with shear only marginally favorable, combined with land interaction.
Thanks gordy, with the pos. mjo I'm surprised the modeling aren't indicating development.
West Caribbean wave having a nice blowup.
Morning Folks
Does anyone think we have td 13 in the making?
It looks like any activity for the next week will occur in the EPAC.

A broad area of lower pressure will still be hanging in the Western Caribbean area as is usual for October but development looks iffy for the Atlantic Basin side.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
259 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2008


MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A LARGE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A DOMINANT FEATURE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING WEST OVER THE NORTH GULF
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE BACKED
OFF OF DEVELOPING OR MAINTAINING A WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND SOUTHWEST GULF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...EAST FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS INITIALLY THOUGHT. WILL HAVE WINDS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.
TPC has now analyzed the 1009mb low as dissipating:


Photobucket
Does anyone think we have td 13 in the making?

Not right now. Just about all of the models have backed off.
blog eating posts again???
You'll are probably right it may not develope until the wave entering the eastern caribbean moves all the way to the west. It does look like a little energy is drifting nw from Venezuela towards the dissipating low in western Carribean. I mainly posted because we been a little slow on weather talk so it is nice to see a response.
Oh heck, anything can happen down there this time of year....to me, it just doesn't look like much will happen until that spike in the MJO towards the end of next week.
area of disturbed weather 500 miles ese of windward islands???
Also I just checked the buoy readings on the two in the western caribbean have dropped a little down .06 millibars to 29.79 and 29.80 does not show much, but at present doesnt look to be weakening.
good morning all seems the carib. might be firing up!!
From the 8:05 TWD:


CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 18N84W NE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W INTO THE W ATLC
AND S TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE AREA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW. AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN
AND COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS
BRINGING MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 80W TO OVER W CUBA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 73W-77W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE S OF 13N FROM 72W-80W. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
W ATLC COVERS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA WITH AN UPPER LOW
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
BRINGING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR TO THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOUD FORMATION. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN ON MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
13N63W TO 15N72W.
mid level circulation near 10n 55w. pressure in the area 1011mb
Quoting stoormfury:
mid level circulation near 10n 55w. pressure in the area 1011mb
not to mention the convection has fired up and got larger over night!
also a very vigorous circulation. the atmosphere is very still and humid here in st luciaand partly cloudy
Blog eating post monster is back
censor is working hard again
Vortfix I was saying your 568 post about covers it I guess they are negative because of ull but it does seem they have alot of different pressure systems in close proximity to one another a small shift could make a difference. Other than that looks to be a little boring next week. Excitement caster out. Wish all a good day.
575. IKE
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
576. IKE
Quoting gordydunnot:
Vortfix I was saying your 568 post about covers it I guess they are negative because of ull but it does seem they have alot of different pressure systems in close proximity to one another a small shift could make a difference. Other than that looks to be a little boring next week. Excitement caster out. Wish all a good day.


Too much shear for anything to affect the US.

577. IKE
This blog has almost bit the dust after IKE, it's so slow.

Then again, there's zero going on anyway.

True IKE.

Also pretty early in the AM
Quoting IKE:
This blog has almost bit the dust after IKE, it's so slow.

Then again, there's zero going on anyway.

It is eatting posts - I posted twice this morning and they never appeared - we'll see what happens with this.
TRT Being a CoCoRaHS Observer myself and going through a winter already maybe I can lend a hand.


Basically what you want to do is have a flat board next to the rain collector. The hail pad works well. Measure the snowfall first to the nearest .10 inch. Then stick the round tube in to the snow on the board. Bring it inside and either wait till it melts or take a measuring cup and add hot water to it. Note the amount of water in the measuring cup, add it to the snow in the tube already. After it melts subtract the amount of water added from the measurement in the collector. There you have it, water content of the snowfall.

In reporting the snowfall, report the water content then in the notes report the snow depth.

After a while you get used to how snow behaves and can quickly estimate even before measurements are taken, that way you can see if you have an anomolous measurement.
Morning Storm, Conchy
Quoting Bonedog:
Morning Storm, Conchy
Morning Bone! Nice having you here and all your great information.
x4 Good morning gang!
test
still not working?

5 posts
dumb post eating monster!! morning all
dang, took four shots to say good morning. Nice work Bonedog, I really like it when folks help folks.
how bout this post
591. DDR
Hey guys,it looks like theres a low forming at 11n 57w in association with that wave,light north wind @11n 61W and rain all around the island but nothing much yet.
what the hell is going on with these posts?

I have lost about 15 posts saying hello to everyone and thanking folks this fine morning.
Good Morning

RE:581. Bonedog Measuring water content of snow
Having never lived in a snow state, I never thought about different snow have different water content. Makes sense that it would depend on how dense the snow is. Very interesting - who would've thunk it
checking recent sat pics and the dropping in pressure around the islands it appears that a depression is forming near 10n 56w. could anyone share some light
Quoting Bonedog:
what the hell is going on with these posts?

I have lost about 15 posts saying hello to everyone and thanking folks this fine morning.
It cant be because of volumn..lol
Morning - in briefly - fascinating infor. on snow measurement -- not only a surfer,but a experienced measurer of snow!
Good morning to all,see invisible post problem is here again.
Sounds like we need a paypal button for bandwidth.
I give up with this post disapearing crap.

well that posted but not this

LOL

if this posts I will be happy.


Thanks folks :) Yea even though i am not the best tropical weather person. Winter is my foretay. Can't wait :) Nor'Easter season 08 has already begun with 94L so it should be a long season for me.

Morning NE and surfmom
Lots of atlantic action going on looking for some development within a few days.
Good morning all! Back at work for another day. Don't have the time in the evening s to come on.kids keep me busy!

Anything going in the tropics??
are they updating the server or something
Quoting KRL:
My only comment is it seems really sad, pathetic and a bit ridiculous that 1/3rd of the money raised is now in a legal defense fund.

:(


This is the second reference I've seen to a legal defense fund. Holding the funds in escrow on advice of legal council does not equate to a legal defense fund. The funds still exist for the purpose intended.
Latest TPC surface forecasts:


Photobucket

Photobucket

Photobucket
Good morning all

Well I see that we have a new invest now for the area in the NW Caribbean.

As I have been posting for the last two days, I expect to see an organized low here by some time this weekend.
Ok....this question may have already been asked. What happened to StormW's blog link?
Quoting Bigguy675:
Ok....this question may have already been asked. What happened to StormW's blog link?


Apparently it was taken down by WU because of some " Goddess " remark or something. I saw a few comments here yesterday about it.
Good Friday morning all! Hope all is well with everyone. Just wanted to deliver my Tropical Update for this morning before doing some chores around the house.
I see a dissipating low in the NW Carib Kman.
Where are you finding an Invest?
Pretty dark and gloomy looking to the west and south west from my position. Winds remain calm but you can feel the humidity in the air.
Oh, I see....they put a floater on it now.


entry deleted
Good morning all.. third attempt.. Blog monster is Hungry this morning
Blog Update
Mirror site update
CMC .... Atlantic Coast, Part One (Hour 90)
CMC .... Caribbean & BOC firing up (Hour 132)
CMC .... Caribbean & BOC (Hour 204)
CMC ... Atlantic Coast, Part Two (Hour 204)
CMC ... West Coast Cuba (Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..
RE:614. Orcasystems Update
Thanks Orca, much appreciated
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:614. Orcasystems Update
Thanks Orca, much appreciated


The CMC doesn't really show anything actually becoming anything in the Caribean/BOC until hour 204, and thats the final one off the west coast of Cuba heading north in hour 240
Quoting Bigguy675:
Ok....this question may have already been asked. What happened to StormW's blog link?


That is the $64,000 question . What really happened?
618. KBH
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Good Friday morning all! Hope all is well with everyone. Just wanted to deliver my Tropical Update for this morning before doing some chores around the house.

here is the word from the local met regarding that disturbance you spoke about... A tropical wave is approaching the island Barbados).
Today and Tonight: Generally cloudy to overcast with showers
and isolated thunderstorms.

Winds: ENE - E at 10 - 35km/h.

Seas: Moderate in open water, swells 2.0-2.5m. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution. It's raining right now, nothing out of the ordinary for a tropical wave
Quoting stormmaven:


That is the $64,000 question . What really happened?


Im Confused?
Quoting vortfix:
I see a dissipating low in the NW Carib Kman.
Where are you finding an Invest?


Look at the floater
621. JRRP
impressive wave 57w
612. vortfix 1:18 PM GMT on October 03, 2008
Oh, I see....they put a floater on it now.
The blog is extremely slow this morning. Many posts not even showing
Your taking about this one I presume.


Click to enlarge

DDR was talking about it last night, his nick is under the western edge of the blob.
KBH this is more than a tropical wave i believeit is an area of disturbed weather with a low level ciculation near 11n 56w and moving wnw/ the area should be watched as pressures are low in the area. recently in st lucia we had 40mph gusts from the ne .this is no ordinary tropical wave
626. afj3
What's the chances of the soupy mix in the SW Caribbean turning into a Wilma or Michelle (2001)? And what's that blob out near the Lesser Antilles? This is when the season winds down but you know somebody has a punch coming at them.
good AM all the SDD site now has a INVEST

Hi Taz,
What do you think will happen first? A Frost in Southern New England or a new tropical storm?
Quoting Tazmanian:
good AM all the SDD site now has a INVEST



What is "all the SDD site"?
Its not on the Navy site... or the NHC?
It's still just an internal NHC Invest Orca.
Has not been proclaimed or issued a number yet.
Quoting StormW:
Quoting TRT:
Can anyone explain the procedure for the rain collector and snowfall? I understand it will measure the water content of the snowfall as it melts, but I am confused about the reporting of rainfall when it is actually snowfall. I just installed a heater in the collector for this winters freezing temps here. Gee, I hope I am phrasing this question right, it is ruff being a lowend novice!


Go here...they have an instruction on it I believe.

CoCoRaHS
StormW; I've seen several here ask the question; what happened to your blog? I saw something yesterday where you made the remark about "ticking off Admin." or something like that. Are you not allowed to post the blog anymore?
Quoting vortfix:
It's still just an internal NHC Invest Orca.
Has not been proclaimed or issued a number yet.


Thank you.. still learning new things everyday.. this is good.. means I am not dead.
I think there is definately a circulation exactly where NHC has the low positioned and it is getting better organized.

Link

Orcasystems 6:53 AM PDT on October 03, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
good AM all the SDD site now has a INVEST




What is "all the SDD site"?
Its not on the Navy site... or the NHC?



the SDD site some times puts up INVEST 1st be for the nhc or navy site dos

you can see the word INVEST here


Link



thats why some time you see the SDD site run a T # on them some time and other tims the navy site nevere puts them up the the SDD 1st is all ways the 1st too put them up
Quoting Tazmanian:
Orcasystems 6:53 AM PDT on October 03, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
good AM all the SDD site now has a INVEST




What is "all the SDD site"?
Its not on the Navy site... or the NHC?



the SDD site some times puts up INVEST 1st be for the nhc or navy site dos

you can see the word INVEST here


Link



thats why some time you see the SDD site run a T # on them some time and other tims the navy site nevere puts them up the the SDD 1st is all ways the 1st too put them up


Thanks for the link Taz.
Quoting vortfix:
It's still just an internal NHC Invest Orca.
Has not been proclaimed or issued a number yet.


Most likely won't develop until this front retrogrades, which has started, or washes out. Reasoning for slow development IMO
628. sporteguy03 6:53 AM PDT on October 03, 2008
Hi Taz,
What do you think will happen first? A Frost in Southern New England or a new tropical storm?



Frost in Southern New England
Quoting Seastep:
I think there is definately a circulation exactly where NHC has the low positioned and it is getting better organized.

Link



For those that do not know, just check "NWS Fronts" to see the NHC position of the low.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning all

Well I see that we have a new invest now for the area in the NW Caribbean.

As I have been posting for the last two days, I expect to see an organized low here by some time this weekend.


Hurray! Something to look at!

I'm not sure it will go north, though. The models seem to want to transfer that energy to the EPAC.

12Z NAM


That's good Orca...keep learning...stay healthy! LOL


Photobucket

Photobucket

Quoting Tazmanian:
628. sporteguy03 6:53 AM PDT on October 03, 2008
Hi Taz,
What do you think will happen first? A Frost in Southern New England or a new tropical storm?



Frost in Southern New England


That may happen tomorrow morning
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Most likely won't develop until this front retrogrades, which has started, or washes out. Reasoning for slow development IMO


The models for days now have been trying to get something develop in the BOC or Caribbean.. and all of the new runs, show it trying also.. but nothing develops for at least another 90 hours (CMC).

I know I know.. the CMC is not a good choice.. but I am a Canuck.. I go with what we got :)
Quoting fmbill:


Hurray! Something to look at!

I'm not sure it will go north, though. The models seem to want to transfer that energy to the EPAC.

12Z NAM




Very possible. There is a rather formidable circulation in the EPAC which may take the upper hand.
Mind you.. it also shows this.. in 90 hours.



The one in the Atlantic
646. Enola
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Good Friday morning all! Hope all is well with everyone. Just wanted to deliver my Tropical Update for this morning before doing some chores around the house.

Thanks cchs!
The BLOG eater is at it this morning.
Yesterday's blog was a mess,very little tropical discussion,hopefully we can keep it tropical oriented today,Please!
649. Enola
Orca, any decent chance of rain in eastern Colorado? We're dyin' here.
Quoting stormmaven:


That is the $64,000 question . What really happened?


Apparently they revised the list of featured blogs...
Like so much dirty laundry here I might suggest that if you feel you need answers to ask them thru WUMail...
I consider his knowledge of tropical weather to be excellent and feel no need to worry about it, his blog is still up and can easily be found.
651. KBH
Quoting stoormfury:
KBH this is more than a tropical wave i believeit is an area of disturbed weather with a low level ciculation near 11n 56w and moving wnw/ the area should be watched as pressures are low in the area. recently in st lucia we had 40mph gusts from the ne .this is no ordinary tropical wave

Well, what you see is direct from the local Met guys. I have not got the sat & tech info, but I agree with you, there is more in this one than just a wave. Right now the first rains temporarily stopped (started about 1hr ago)no winds at all, but lots of lightning & thunder activity now,....waiting to see when it becomes and invest
Quoting Enola:
Orca, any decent chance of rain in eastern Colorado? We're dyin' here.


ROFLMAO, flipping thru the charts.. where the "H" is Colorado..... I'll find it.
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, flipping thru the charts.. where the "H" is Colorado..... I'll find it.


Well...if there's an "H" over Colorado, I doubt they'll get any rain. LOL!!!
is this thing working yet?
Appears it is :)
656. Enola
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, flipping thru the charts.. where the "H" is Colorado..... I'll find it.

Well, at least it proves I have a sense of humor. :)


Only in the SW corner.. and nothing I can see approaching from further out.. That being said.. thats a StormW/TampaSpin type question.
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, flipping thru the charts.. where the "H" is Colorado..... I'll find it.


Right above New Mexico
There is an ULL moving into the northern end of the islands....should keep any development of the wave in check. At least in the short term.

WV Loop

Morning NE
hey,Bone,see you are getting through now.
663. Enola
Quoting Orcasystems: Only in the SW corner.. and nothing I can see approaching from further out...

Thanks for checking Orca. Just was hoping. Allergies are fierce right now.
Good morning everyone. Must have been a problem posting earlier. Some interesting circulation at 24N 44W that is heading W. Also right off of the N Coast of Honduras.

I see that they are getting light snow on Mt. Washington, NH. 27 F
Quoting Enola:

Thanks for checking Orca. Just was hoping. Allergies are fierce right now.


Thats being said.. remember, I can post pretty pictures, and read a model, and post more pretty pictures.. but I could not forecast my way out of a wet paper bag.. so take it for what its worth.. not much.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats being said.. remember, I can post pretty pictures, and read a model, and post more pretty pictures.. but I could not forecast my way out of a wet paper bag.. so take it for what its worth.. not much.


You would probably be able to get a job as one of my local mets on tv with those credentials.
Quoting NEwxguy:


You would probably be able to get a job as one of my local mets on tv with those credentials.


Might I also point out.. my looks scares most cameras.. so alas, even the "talking head" position is out :)
The first item I want to discuss is a broad area of low pressure that is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Satellite imagery indicates that there are showers and thunderstorms associated with this low pressure system. Currently, wind shear values over this system are unfavorable for development and I do not anticipate development over the next day or two. Little movement is expected this weekend from this system and it should be noted that none of the global models forecast development from this system. With that said, this system will be watched closely as it is forecast to sit in the northwestern Caribbean over the next couple of days and environmental conditions may become more favorable this weekend for development. If this system does develop over the next 3 to 5 days and starts tracking north and northeast, it will be ripped apart by very strong wind shear just to its north. So, overall I give this system a low chance of developing today through Saturday.
Next week, I will be watching the area from off of the US Southeast coast through the western Caribbean for "homegrown" development. The global models continue to forecast that an area of high pressure will build over southeastern Canada by Tuesday abd remain in place through Thursday. A easterly wind flow will then develop in the area of the Bahamas with lowering pressures over the Caribbean. This type of weather pattern may pop a tropical depression or a tropical storm somewhere between the Bahamas and the western Caribbean next week. The UKMET and European models are forecasting a non-tropical storm to form southeast of New England on Tuesday and Wednesday and forecasts it to sit out in the open Atlantic through the Columbus Day weekend. The NOGAPS and Canadian models also forecast some sort of low pressure system to form east of the Bahamas around the middle of next week. So, the overall pattern next week suggests the area between off of the US Southeast Coast and the western Caribbean will have to be watched closely.
Finally, The MJO forecast calls for a very strong pulse in the Atlantic and Caribbean starting around October 11th. The overall pattern during the second half of October suggests that it is possible that we may see a landfalling tropical system in the United States due to high pressure near the US East Coast. It should be noted that the long range GFS model continues to forecast that activity may pick up in earnest starting around Columbus Day weekend and continuing through at least October 18th. So, this is something that I am going to continue to keep a very close eye on and I will keep you all updated.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 10 am EDT Saturday morning



from here


Link
Enoloa....my allergies are so bad right now....I'm actually thinking of moving to......Canada......
Looks like the blog has come to a screeching halt again
looks like something is getting cranked up in the northwest caribbean
Back. Sorry work interupted my blogging :)

Yea Im getting through now NE


seems we have two camps with the carib blob.
1) nothing will happen
2) its going to be the next storm

there is a third camp but we can religate them tot he Darwin Awards LOL
Wouldn't be surprised to see something get going on the old front,but it would be slow developement and probably not until next week sometime.
i wonder why the computer models are not predicting development in the carribean???? the broad area of low pressure is looking good slowly
If it does develop would it move towards western cuba and Sw Florida
NE funny you say that a few models are showing 850 vorts along the old front
Quoting Orcasystems:


The models for days now have been trying to get something develop in the BOC or Caribbean.. and all of the new runs, show it trying also.. but nothing develops for at least another 90 hours (CMC).

I know I know.. the CMC is not a good choice.. but I am a Canuck.. I go with what we got :)
Hey, you have been using that "Canuck" excuse a lot recently . . ..

LOL

Morning, everybody. Going in to work late today. We are having the first real sunshine here all week; since Tuesday it's been overcast and intermittently rainy. It's interesting that the front is likely to retrograde rather than dissipate.

I'm going to get out of here in a little while - gotta go get ready for work - but I'm glad to see we still have a few more days before we can expect any tropical formation.
off the east coast I should have said
RTAP

GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery Link

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

Follow the image links for alternate channel views of the same area.
Quoting Bonedog:
NE funny you say that a few models are showing 850 vorts along the old front


That doesn't surprise me,this time of year,when the fronts hang around,when the conditions are right something usually gets going.
just checked the CPE all the 850s off the old front are forecasted cold cores.


Still nothing showing the carib Im thinking just enhanced activity due to the trough. Lets see what happens over the weekend when I washes out.
GOM,Caribbean Low Cloud Product Link
Latest Caribbean surface analysis:

Photobucket

And the rest of the story:


Photobucket

thanks taz we will be watching those areas.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Might I also point out.. my looks scares most cameras.. so alas, even the "talking head" position is out :)


Self-effacing humor is SO much more attractive than the blow-hards who think they know it all....going back to lurking mode.
Is it just me, or is the wave at 57W not acting like it should given the shear charts?

Link

Doesn't look on sat to be reacting as would be expected given the shear environment to me.

With that level of shear, I would expect to see all that convection being displaced to the E and NE, but it doesn't seem to be having any problem moving W along w/ the wave.

Can someone explain this? TIA.
Quoting BonInBama:


Self-effacing humor is SO much more attractive than the blow-hards who think they know it all....going back to lurking mode.


There Orca, you have fan.
LOL NE
Is it just me, or is the wave at 57W not acting like it should given the shear charts

Shear is evident to me.

RGB Loop




new blog
MJO is lurking around. If we see it dive out of the circle deep into 8 or 1 we maybe in for something named..

Bahama blob is gone now. We may see 1 or more new navy invests today. Looking at the big pic, I don't see anything backing that front back over FL in the short term so Cuba/Bahamas are at biggest risk for NOAA declared invest at the moment. The blob approaching the east Caribbean is being harrassed pretty heavily by an Upper Level Low (naked swirl to the north). Should keep it in check.. Seastep~ I suspect the ULL is fanning the upper levels causing plenty of diffluence aloft.
new blog up.
Quoting vortfix:
Is it just me, or is the wave at 57W not acting like it should given the shear charts

Shear is evident to me.

RGB Loop






Of course there is shear. The question is more how much that shear is affecting the wave. With my untrained (but experienced) eye, I would expect the heavy areas to not be able to proceed W w/ the wave. From watching previous systems, with that shear it should be, at best, stationary while the wave keeps moving W. ala Hanna or many other waves this year. Shear has been destroying systems left and right this year.

Just doesn't seem to look like I have seen previously under the same general conditions.

I would expect the "blob" to be displaced from the wave much more and that is not happening. JMO.