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October 2013: Earth's 7th Warmest October; Thanksgiving Eve Nor'easter Coming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:04 PM GMT on November 22, 2013

October 2013 was the globe's 7th warmest October since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 8th warmest October on record. The year-to-date period of January - October has been the 7th warmest such period on record. October 2013 global land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were also the 8th warmest on record. October 2013 was the 344th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in October 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 6th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Northern Hemisphere October snow cover was the 7th greatest in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of October 2013 in his October 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2013, the 7th warmest October for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record October warmth was observed across parts of Alaska, northwestern Canada, northwestern Africa, and southern Australia. The western U.S., Turkey, and northeastern Siberia were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

The three billion-dollar weather disasters of October 2013
Three billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during October 2013, bringing the world-wide tally of these disasters through October 2013 to 35, according to the October 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. If we add November's Super Typhoon Haiyan, the total reaches 36. This is the second highest yearly total of billion-dollar weather disasters for the globe since accurate disaster records began in 2000, though the total cost of weather-related disasters so far in 2013 is below the average for the past ten years, according to Senior Scientist Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield. The record highest number of billion-dollar weather disasters was 40, set in 2010. For comparison, during all of 2012, there were 27 billion-dollar weather disasters; the tally in 2011 was 35 (adjusted for inflation.) The U.S. total through October 2013 is seven.




Disaster 1. Category 2 Typhoon Fitow hit the southern Japanese Islands on October 4, killing two people. Fitow weakened to a tropical storm and made landfall in China just north of Taiwan on October 7, dumping torrential rains that caused $6.7 billion in damage and killed six. In this MODIS image from 02:15 UTC October 5, 2013, Category 2 Typhoon Fitow is approaching China. Image credit: NASA.


Disaster 2. Tropical Cyclone Phailin hit the northeast coast of India on October 12, 2013 as a weakening Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Due to strong preparedness efforts by India, the storm killed only 44 people, in a location where 10,000 people had been killed by a similar-strength cyclone in 1999. Damage from Phailin was estimated at $1.1 billion, which would make it the 6th most expensive tropical cyclone in India's history (adjusted for inflation.) In this image taken at approximately 04:30 UTC on October 11, 2013, Phailin fills the Bay of Bengal as a top-end Category 4 storm with winds of 155 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Disaster 3. Extratropical storm "Christian" hit the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Scandinavia on October 28, killing 18 and causing at least $2 billion in damage. A new all-time wind speed record in Denmark of 192.6 kph (120 mph) was measured that day at Kegnæs on the Baltic Sea, close to the German border. In this image, large waves break against the dyke at the entrance of the port of Boulogne, northern France, on October 28, 2013. Image credit: PHILIPPE HUGUEN/AFP/Getty Images)

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 19th month in row, October 2013 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2014, as do the large majority of the El Niño models. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive months for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.0°C from average as of November 18, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest October extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during October was 6th lowest in the 35-year satellite record, and had the largest October extent since 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Winter Storm Boreas likely to become season's first Nor'easter on Thanksgiving Eve
A potent winter storm (Boreas) is bringing snow and difficult travel conditions to Arizona, and will spread a variety of dangerous winter weather across Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, and Utah over the weekend. On Monday and Tuesday, the storm will dump heavy rains over the Southeast U.S., before emerging over the coastal waters of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday morning. The models are in fair agreement that Boreas will then intensify into the season's first significant Nor'easter on Wednesday afternoon, bringing heavy rain to coastal New England and the Mid-Atlantic, snow farther inland at higher elevations, and minor coastal flooding due to strong winds. The potential for 6+ inches of snow in Upstate New York and the northern portions of New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine looks good, and there is the possibility that Washington D.C. and Philadelphia could get 2 - 4" of snow Wednesday afternoon and evening, after a period of heavy rain. With the storm still five days away, confidence in the timing of the storm and the potential location and amount of snow is low, and we will have to see how the models evolve in their handling of this potential Thanksgiving Eve Nor'easter.


Figure 2. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom in Nepal.

"India Water Crisis" and "Stonados" air Saturday at 9 pm EDT
“Tipping Points”, the landmark 6-part climate change TV series that began airing in October on The Weather Channel, airs for the final time on Saturday night, November 23, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "India Water Crisis", goes to the top of the world--the Himalayas--and all the way down across the plains of India, following one of the most famous river systems in the world--the Ganges. Fresh water sources from the Himalayas that provide water to over one billion people are under threat, but just what is happening here--and if the region is approaching a tipping point--are what polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom seeks to find out.

For those of you more into watching a show about a preposterous imaginary weather threat instead of a worrisome real one, SyFy Channel's "Stonados" is airing at the same time as "Tipping Points." That's right--a killer tornado hurls giant stones that "explode like bombs" in Boston. "Stonados" was originally set to air before the equally ridiculous "Sharknado" movie. However, the Boston Marathon bombings occurred the week before, and the producers wisely pulled "Stonado" in favor of "Sharknado." One can imagine all sorts of possible sequels--Lobsterbado! Spidernado! Snakenado! After watching the "Stonado" trailer, my wife asked me, "why are the rocks exploding? What's the science behind that?" I told her that you don't have to have any science in a movie made by Asylum studios, you just make things explode.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Boreas

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. nash36
LOL!!!! I love my home city of Dallas. They can be so goofy, I swear.... They make it sound like a bad Sci-Fi movie. LOL!

This snippet from The Dallas Morning News:

Update at 5:51 p.m.: Frank Librio, the spokesman for Dallas City Hall, says the city is downgrading from Ice Force Level 1 to Scout Mode — at least for now.

All that really means is that the city’s got 14 sanding trucks standing by instead of 30

“During the Scout Mode, Street Services will continue monitor the bridges, overpasses, inclines and intersections on major thoroughfares,” says Librio’s statement. “Should the weather conditions warrant, the Ice Force Level 1 will resume. The forecast suggests that the temperature may drop to below freezing with an 84% chance of precipitation after midnight.”
Quoting 1496. BahaHurican:
You can always pledge not to come back until April...

But then we'd have prolly end up with multiple snomageddon events alternating with record warm highs and random severe wx all winter.... plus a record Southern hemisphere tropical season....
Quoting 1498. wxgeek723:


Wow look at the skyrocketing CAPE values in Central Florida all the sudden.

;)

Yeah, that's definitely my kind of luck.
1503. DDR
Good evening
Typical November weather in Trinidad and Tobago,its been raining off and on for the past 4 days,were looking another 3-6 inches before the month's over :)
Quoting 1501. nash36:
LOL!!!! I love my home city of Dallas. They can be so goofy, I swear.... They make it sound like a bad Sci-Fi movie. LOL!

This snippet from The Dallas Morning News:

Update at 5:51 p.m.: Frank Librio, the spokesman for Dallas City Hall, says the city is downgrading from Ice Force Level 1 to Scout Mode — at least for now.

All that really means is that the city’s got 14 sanding trucks standing by instead of 30

“During the Scout Mode, Street Services will continue monitor the bridges, overpasses, inclines and intersections on major thoroughfares,” says Librio’s statement. “Should the weather conditions warrant, the Ice Force Level 1 will resume. The forecast suggests that the temperature may drop to below freezing with an 84% chance of precipitation after midnight.”



Quoting 1496. BahaHurican:
You can always pledge not to come back until April...

But then we'd have prolly end up with multiple snomageddon events alternating with record warm highs and random severe wx all winter.... plus a record Southern hemisphere tropical season....

The South Atlantic will probably end up having a major hurricane. :P
Quoting 1495. wxchaser97:

I have a better chance of winning the Powerball than an EF-5 in Florida this week, and I'm too young to buy/cash in lotto tickets!
I'll buy it for you. They call this city AsheVegas for a reason ;)
Quoting 1502. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, that's definitely my kind of luck.

The CAPE will probably end up looking like this if your luck is as bad as you are inferring. :P

1508. beell

15Z SREF ML CAPE-Tuesday, 18Z


15Z SREF 0-1 km SRH-Tuesday, 18Z
1509. Pallis
Quoting 1501. nash36:
LOL!!!! I love my home city of Dallas. They can be so goofy, I swear.... They make it sound like a bad Sci-Fi movie. LOL!

This snippet from The Dallas Morning News:

Update at 5:51 p.m.: Frank Librio, the spokesman for Dallas City Hall, says the city is downgrading from Ice Force Level 1 to Scout Mode — at least for now.

All that really means is that the city’s got 14 sanding trucks standing by instead of 30

“During the Scout Mode, Street Services will continue monitor the bridges, overpasses, inclines and intersections on major thoroughfares,” says Librio’s statement. “Should the weather conditions warrant, the Ice Force Level 1 will resume. The forecast suggests that the temperature may drop to below freezing with an 84% chance of precipitation after midnight.”
At least he didn,t spend the money on crack like that mayor from Sullivan Co.NY., right? I doubt Atlanta has learned a thing from the last infrastructure shutdown due to a light snow.
1510. txjac
Quoting 1388. Astrometeor:


*giggles*

You know what they say, everything in Texas is bigger, including the fear factor. Those must be some large flurries.


I know that I am behind on reading comments but this one made me chuckle ...whenever there is an inkling of snow in Houston we get an email from our company to GO HOME!. People here in Houston dont drive or deal with snow well
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
2:30 AM IST November 25 2013
=====================================

Cyclone warning for Andaman And Nicobar Islands (Orange Message)

At 21:00 PM UTC, the cyclonic storm LEHAR over Andaman Sea moved westward and crossed Andaman and Nicobar islands south of Port Blair between 20:00 - 21:00 PM UTC (0130-0230 AM IST). The system lays center now near 11.5N 92.5E. The system would intensify further, move west northwestward and then emerge into southeast Bay of Bengal, intensify ever further into a severe cyclonic storm. It would then move wet northwestward and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machillipatnam and Kalingapatnam near Kakinada and noon Thursday.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The central pressure of cyclonic storm LEHAR is 996 hPa.

Damage expected over Andaman & Nicobar Islands
==============================================

Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
9 HRS: 12.4N 91.3E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 13.0N 89.8E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Storm Surge
============
Storm surge of about 1 to 1.5 meters height above astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Andaman & Nicobar Islands within 100 km from the landfall point
***IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT***
2013-2014 NOR'EASTER NAMING LIST.
Only clearly defined low-pressure systems in or near the USA qualify for name.

Ashley
Brian
Claudia
Derek
Evgeniya
Franco
Greta
Harry
Ilena
Joseph
Kristina
Luigi
Mikayla
Niall
Olesya
Pavel
Rosalina
Scott
Talia
Vladimir
Wilhelmina
Xu
Yuliya
Zack
1513. Dakster
Quoting 1501. nash36:
LOL!!!! I love my home city of Dallas. They can be so goofy, I swear.... They make it sound like a bad Sci-Fi movie. LOL!

This snippet from The Dallas Morning News:

Update at 5:51 p.m.: Frank Librio, the spokesman for Dallas City Hall, says the city is downgrading from Ice Force Level 1 to Scout Mode — at least for now.

All that really means is that the city’s got 14 sanding trucks standing by instead of 30

“During the Scout Mode, Street Services will continue monitor the bridges, overpasses, inclines and intersections on major thoroughfares,” says Librio’s statement. “Should the weather conditions warrant, the Ice Force Level 1 will resume. The forecast suggests that the temperature may drop to below freezing with an 84% chance of precipitation after midnight.”


I can only imagine what they named the sand/salt trucks themselves after reading that.
Quoting 1512. iTrollTheTrolls:
***IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT***
2013-2014 NOR'EASTER NAMING LIST.
Only clearly defined low-pressure systems in or near the USA qualify for name. Must be a nor'easter!

Ashley
Brian
Claudia
Derek
Evgeniya
Franco
Greta
Harry
Ilena
Joseph
Kristina
Luigi
Mikayla
Niall
Olesya
Pavel
Rosalina
Scott
Talia
Vladimir
Wilhelmina
Xu
Yuliya
Zack
1515. nash36
I remember very vividly many occasions where we had an ice storm in Dallas and I was screwed trying to get to work. I lived in the Lake Dallas area, which is north of Dallas and to get to the city, you HAD to get on I-35 and head across Lake Lewisville.

That thing iced up in no time and became a hockey rink. Only difference being the players were 2000lb vehicles ramming into each other and the retaining walls.
1516. Dakster
Quoting 1512. iTrollTheTrolls:
***IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT***
2013-2014 NOR'EASTER NAMING LIST.
Only clearly defined low-pressure systems in or near the USA qualify for name.

Ashley
Brian
Claudia
Derek
Evgeniya
Franco
Greta
Harry
Ilena
Joseph
Kristina
Luigi
Mikayla
Niall
Olesya
Pavel
Rosalina
Scott
Talia
Vladimir
Wilhelmina
Xu
Yuliya
Zack


Wait... Nor'easter names and winter storm names? This is getting darn right confusing.

1517. nash36
Quoting 1516. Dakster:


Wait... Nor'easter names and winter storm names? This is getting darn right confusing.



I think the whole exercise in naming winter storms is ridiculous. What's wrong with the folks on TWC saying "It's gonna snow like a *&^!! here, here, here AND here."

Lol
1518. nash36
Winter storm warning in Dallas has been canceled. It has been replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory.

Quoting 1389. Doppler22:
I hate these storms. The models tease you constantly whether you will be on the rain side or the snow side and then when the storm hits I am always on the rain side -_- I actually had hope this time.
Told you not to get your hopes up
Quoting 1516. Dakster:


Wait... Nor'easter names and winter storm names? This is getting darn right confusing.


I'm just trying to make it more fun. Nor'easters are rarer and more dynamic than an average Clipper or Frontal System. Think of it like how the West Pacific has one set of names and the Philippines do their own thing
Rainbow Image of March 3 2012 Tornado Outbreak:

Quoting 1512. iTrollTheTrolls:
***IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT***
2013-2014 NOR'EASTER NAMING LIST.
Only clearly defined low-pressure systems in or near the USA qualify for name.

Ashley
Brian
Claudia
Derek
Evgeniya
Franco
Greta
Harry
Ilena
Joseph
Kristina
Luigi
Mikayla
Niall
Olesya
Pavel
Rosalina
Scott
Talia
Vladimir
Wilhelmina
Xu
Yuliya
Zack


is there a link to this statement?
Quoting 1522. HadesGodWyvern:


is there a link to this statement?
he is naming them himself maybe put 93 after each name
Quoting 1523. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he is naming them himself maybe put 93 after each name


ah
Quoting 1512. iTrollTheTrolls:
***IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT***
2013-2014 NOR'EASTER NAMING LIST.
Only clearly defined low-pressure systems in or near the USA qualify for name.

Ashley
Brian
Claudia
Derek
Evgeniya
Franco
Greta
Harry
Ilena
Joseph
Kristina
Luigi
Mikayla
Niall
Olesya
Pavel
Rosalina
Scott
Talia
Vladimir
Wilhelmina
Xu
Yuliya
Zack



there is no need for that you are going too end up this confusing. evere one this went TWC take care of the nameing of the winter storms so that way there is no confusing.
NAM 00Z HR 12 SIM RAD /SFGC TEMPS

NAM 00Z HR 24 SIM RAD /SFGC TEMPS

NAM 00Z HR 36 SIM RAD /SFGC TEMPS

NAM 00Z HR 57 SIM RAD /SFGC TEMPS

1530. Dakster
Quoting 1523. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he is naming them himself maybe put 93 after each name


Okey Dokey. Sounds like a plan. Was starting to get worried I was gonna have to keep track of more lists.

Quoting 1512. iTrollTheTrolls:
***IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT***
2013-2014 NOR'EASTER NAMING LIST.
Only clearly defined low-pressure systems in or near the USA qualify for name.

Ashley
Brian
Claudia
Derek
Evgeniya
Franco
Greta
Harry
Ilena
Joseph
Kristina
Luigi
Mikayla
Niall
Olesya
Pavel
Rosalina
Scott
Talia
Vladimir
Wilhelmina
Xu
Yuliya
Zack


Quoting 1512. iTrollTheTrolls:
***IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT***
2013-2014 NOR'EASTER NAMING LIST.
Only clearly defined low-pressure systems in or near the USA qualify for name.

Ashley
Brian
Claudia
Derek
Evgeniya
Franco
Greta
Harry
Ilena
Joseph
Kristina
Luigi
Mikayla
Niall
Olesya
Pavel
Rosalina
Scott
Talia
Vladimir
Wilhelmina
Xu
Yuliya
Zack


Are you Weatherboy Weather on Facebook by any chance?
Quoting 1532. Bluestorm5:


Are you Weatherboy Weather on Facebook by any chance?

I can confirm I am not him. I'm just doing this because I know that TWC owns site, so I'm hoping it gets noticed and goes mainstream. Long shot yes. But its possible.
Quoting 1516. Dakster:


Wait... Nor'easter names and winter storm names? This is getting darn right confusing.



Vulcan
And I am the meteorologist on my school newspaper. I'm introducing the list this week for the Thanksgiving storm, which my school will know as Nor'Easter "Ashley"
Naming Nor'easters would be a great idea,

Naming random winter storms is what I've never gotten.
For West Palm Beach...

Quoting 1536. CybrTeddy:
Naming Nor'easters would be a great idea,

Naming random winter storms is what I've never gotten.


We might as well name high pressure systems, since they can be just as destructive and deadly (cold and heat outbreaks, droughts).
Dat temperature gradient.
05B/TC/L/C3
A bad hurricane name you remember for a lifetime, if your an enthusiast you remember most named TS or canes. Naming winter storms is for t.v only, the hype equals ratings. No one remembers these ridiculous names, it's a ploy and a ploy only. Winter storms can be as damaging as a hurricane and often contain cat 1/2 pressures, but by their nature, they differ in so many ways from tropical systems. Just like so many stores opening on Thanksgiving, not for making a profit, but for not losing sales to the competition; it's become America's street walker nature to do anything and everything to make a profit. Can't blame TWC, they're just playing the game. This is the truth, when we build a society based on greed, selfishness, and ruthless competition, the fruits we can expect to reap are economic insecurity at home and international discord abroad. (Gene Farley)
Quoting 1540. wxchaser97:
Dat temperature gradient.


is it usually 75 in the carolinas this time of year
2014 Hurricane List-- Bad Names are Bolded
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
Quoting 1539. Astrometeor:


We might as well name high pressure systems, since they can be just as destructive and deadly (cold and heat outbreaks, droughts).


Why don't we just name clouds
Quoting 1544. nwobilderburg:
2014 Hurricane List-- Bad Names are Bolded
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

I honestly wish they would "modernize" some of the names. I mean I have never met anyone named Bertha, Edouard, Isaias, Josephine, Nana, or Wilfred. Never met a Gonzalo either, but that just sounds badass
Quoting 1545. wxgeek723:


Why don't we just name clouds
we do that already I was thinking more like hailstones raindrops and snowflakes
Quoting 1545. wxgeek723:


Why don't we just name clouds


Quoting 1547. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we do that already I was thinking more like hailstones raindrops and snowflakes


Hello Rainbow Bob. You seem colorful today.
Quoting 1543. nwobilderburg:


is it usually 75 in the carolinas this time of year
Usually 50s in the high, but 60s aren't that uncommon either.
Quoting 1548. Astrometeor:




Hello Rainbow Bob. You seem colorful today.
raindrop Splash will change to hailstone Thump followed by snowflake Fluff
Quoting 1545. wxgeek723:


Why don't we just name clouds

Breaking news: A large cloud has formed and has been given the name 'Cindy'!



Quoting 1543. nwobilderburg:


is it usually 75 in the carolinas this time of year

I think it's usually a little cooler than that (60s), but the freezing temperatures on the cold side of the boundary is the impressive part.
Quoting 1547. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we do that already I was thinking more like hailstones raindrops and snowflakes


I think we should just name every little bit of every instance of every meteorological and geological phenomenon known to mankind. Name tropical disturbances, ice storms, clouds, thunderstorms, tornadoes, fronts, derechos, raindrops, funnel clouds, snowflakes, freezing raindrops, acid raindrops, sleet pellets, graupel, earthquakes, fogs, every sound of thunder, every strike of lightning, every little gust of wind, every pressure gradient on a surface map, everything. Hell while we're at it let's name the sun Pyros and then have the media hype up sunny days and when the weather is dull at night we can name the stars we don't already know.
Quoting 1552. wxgeek723:


I think we should just name every little bit of every instance of every meteorological and geological phenomenon known to mankind. Name tropical disturbances, ice storms, clouds, thunderstorms, tornadoes, fronts, derechos, raindrops, funnel clouds, snowflakes, freezing raindrops, sleet pellets, graupel, earthquakes, fogs, every sound of thunder, every strike of lightning, every little gust of wind, every pressure gradient on a surface map, everything. Hell while we're at it let's name the sun Pyros and then have the media hype up sunny days and when the weather is dull at night we can name the stars we don't already know.

Nah for nighttime weather we can name nocturnal inversions. I envision this becoming the next big naming scheme. Picture it now, Nocturnal Inversion Isaac is coming for you.
1554. Gaara
Quoting 1546. iTrollTheTrolls:

I honestly wish they would "modernize" some of the names. I mean I have never met anyone named Bertha, Edouard, Isaias, Josephine, Nana, or Wilfred. Never met a Gonzalo either, but that just sounds badass


Not even Wilfred?! Need to watch more TV.

Quoting 1554. Gaara:


Not even Wilfred?! Need to watch more TV.



Maybe they should have people pick names and vote on the most popular ones
Quoting 1552. wxgeek723:


I think we should just name every little bit of every instance of every meteorological and geological phenomenon known to mankind. Name tropical disturbances, ice storms, clouds, thunderstorms, tornadoes, fronts, derechos, raindrops, funnel clouds, snowflakes, freezing raindrops, acid raindrops, sleet pellets, graupel, earthquakes, fogs, every sound of thunder, every strike of lightning, every little gust of wind, every pressure gradient on a surface map, everything. Hell while we're at it let's name the sun Pyros and then have the media hype up sunny days and when the weather is dull at night we can name the stars we don't already know.


Yuma, Arizona (the sunniest city in the US) would never hear the end of it. The inducement of terror and fear upon the city might uptick the suicide rate akin to something like dreary Seattle's.
Quoting 1556. Astrometeor:


Yuma, Arizona (the sunniest city in the US) would never hear the end of it. The inducement of terror and fear upon the city might uptick the suicide rate akin to something like dreary Seattle's.


I just laughed out loud at my computer screen and that's rare I give you a lot of credit for that, hahaha.
Quoting 1555. nwobilderburg:


Maybe they should have people pick names and vote on the most popular ones


Disregard that .... that is a terrible idea. people on the internet will always upvote the most offensive/ridiculous names
1559. ncstorm
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 5s

Buckets of rain, Freezing rain, and snow -- Wed 00z beginning to travel nightmare pic.twitter.com/Et8c4Lmdv2
Quoting 1556. Astrometeor:


Yuma, Arizona (the sunniest city in the US) would never hear the end of it. The inducement of terror and fear upon the city might uptick the suicide rate akin to something like dreary Seattle's.


Not quite... Seattle's suicide rate is a common myth. Also, nothing but sun in for the forecast for the upcoming week.
Quoting 1560. Seattleite:


Not quite... Seattle's suicide rate is a common myth. Also, nothing but sun in for the forecast for the upcoming week.


Hey there! I was wondering if you were on. Looks like I guessed correctly. You don't mind a little jab at Seattle too much, do you? The whole discussion is all nonsense anyways, just too much fun to made of out of TWC, I suppose. Nice link, too. Never knew it was a myth. Another thing I learned in school that was a lie, apparently. Thank you for the correction.
Quoting 1519. Climate175:
Told you not to get your hopes up

Oh whatever. I will get told not to get my hopes up but I will every time a storm is coming. Its in my nature :p
1563. Dakster
To be honest, I am against naming anything. Insurance companies already use that to their advantage and your disadvantage.

You can close on a house or get insurance if there is named storm ANYWHERE in the Atlantic... Different higher deductibles with a high policy cost amounts also are for these named storms. Now you want to add winter names?

Careful what you ask for.
I'll bold the ones I think are gonna be bad (or good depending on your view of hurricanes):

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

As an honorable mention, I have rather high hopes for Gonzalo being a strong hurricane for my state (Louisiana). Gustav did a number on me, after all.

And yes, I'm risking going against the grain by saying that. But I always do. What's one another time? :)
I see many commenting on PensacolaDoug's blog. Of those who debate or ridiculous comment against AGW, Doug sticks around for more than a minute after commenting. A good member and one who will at least debate what he blogs. Hi Kori, so what's the plan, Florida State for meteorology, Air Force, or Walmart management in your future?

Quoting 1565. Tribucanes:
I see many commenting on PensacolaDoug's blog. Of those who debate or ridiculous comment against AGW, Doug sticks around for more than a minute after commenting. A good member and one who will at least debate what he blogs. Hi Kori, so what's the plan, Florida State for meteorology, Air Force, or Walmart management in your future?
Air Force. I must have been under demonic possession to ever actually consider the very last one.
I know a lot of people named Kyle, brother included. So I think that's a pretty relevant name.
1568. Dakster
Quoting 1566. KoritheMan:

Air Force. I must have been under demonic possession to ever actually consider the very last one.


You don't want to work for the chinese?
Quoting 1566. KoritheMan:

Air Force. I must have been under demonic possession to ever actually consider the very last one.


Have u enlisted then? I think that's great and very commendable! Your a sharp mind and a good soul, you'll do well, no doubt. Service is a great thing and not without sacrifice. Here's to hoping you go far in whatever you choose.
Link

A neat video made by the DJ David Guetta ft. Mikky Ekko.

It promotes things such as peace and compassion but also highlights the aid being sent/needing to be sent to Syria and the Philippines and more. The song was streamed along with a twitter feed at the UN headquarters two days ago. Check it out.

(And before anybody yells at me, it is on topic because of the connection to the Philippines)

Quoting 1569. Tribucanes:


Have u enlisted then? I think that's great and very commendable! Your a sharp mind and a good soul, you'll do well, no doubt. Service is a great thing and not without sacrifice. Here's to hoping you go far in whatever you choose.
I haven't enlisted yet, in part because my cousin has a wedding in January, and I wanted to at least stay for that.
1572. Dakster
Korithe - Good luck. Have fun in the Air Force. I nearly joined, but was picked up by another government entity first.

I kinda of wish I had joined though.
Quoting 1566. KoritheMan:

Air Force. I must have been under demonic possession to ever actually consider the very last one.
It's a great honor you'll give to our country. We'll miss having you around on here and Facebook group if you are to be taken away from technology.
00Z GFS 500MB VORT HR 69

00Z GFS 500MB VORT HR 78

00Z GFS 500MB VORT HR 90

1577. Dakster
KOTG - If that holds you might getting a little wind coming your way.
Thanks you guys. I wub you so all much, even if I come off as needlessly abrasive at times.

*tear*
Quoting 1566. KoritheMan:

Air Force. I must have been under demonic possession to ever actually consider the very last one.
Well, new avatar, I see... somehow that red shirt just doesn't seem to be... you... lol...

Otherwise I like it.'

It's raining cats and dogs here, btw... very un-Novemberlike...
Quoting 1578. KoritheMan:
Thanks you guys. I wub you so all much, even if I come off as needlessly abrasive at times.

*tear*


It's all love Kori, we'll go out for a drink in the future. Stories and world views will not be in short supply.
Quoting 1580. Tribucanes:


It's all love Kori, we'll go out for a drink in the future. Stories and world views will not be in short supply.


Don't mention Walmart.
Quoting 1581. wxgeek723:


Don't mention Walmart.

I was thinking the same thing there, Trent. hahaha
Quoting 1577. Dakster:
KOTG - If that holds you might getting a little wind coming your way.
winds increase after sunrise be gusting to 60 kmh from sw then shift w to w nw to eventually n nw

Quoting 1579. BahaHurican:
Well, new avatar, I see... somehow that red shirt just doesn't seem to be... you... lol...

Otherwise I like it.'

It's raining cats and dogs here, btw... very un-Novemberlike...
I had to wear something to keep me warm! Darned arctic airmass. :/
Quoting 1578. KoritheMan:
Thanks you guys. I wub you so all much, even if I come off as needlessly abrasive at times.

*tear*


Kori? Showing genuine emotion? Woah...

<3 you too Kori. You're one of the better members of this community.

Quoting 1580. Tribucanes:


It's all love Kori, we'll go out for a drink in the future. Stories and world views will not be in short supply.
You should come down to New Orleans next time we have a meetup. Some guys from WU gather in the quarter, they bring their friends, their friends bring their friends, in an endless cycle of mayhem. I went with a group earlier this year, and they're having another one in May.

Quoting 1585. Astrometeor:


Kori? Showing genuine emotion? Woah...

<3 you too Kori. You're one of the better members of this community.
Might wanna screencap it and treasure it as a keepsake.

Consider it a luxury. :P
patriots vs. denver was a very weird/crappy football game


Hoping everyone stays safe during the storm
It's down to a [un]comfortable 21F at the house right now. Radiational cooling at its finest...
Kori, we'll celebrate the end of our career at Walmart when it's over in early January... good chance I'll work again there in December.
1592. Dakster
Korithe looks more like the french clothing store with that red shirt. You know, Target.
1593. Dakster
Quoting 1590. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's down to a [un]comfortable 21F at the house right now. Radiational cooling at its finest...


No heat?
About 34F and no sleet, all rain. Figures
Starting to get some bands of slantwise/elevated convection getting started across Texas. Even though most of the Winter Storm Warnings have been dropped, there is still the potential for decent icing wherever the colder temperatures and bands coexist. It also looks like I could see a couple of inches of rain as rainfall focuses along the 850 mb front tomorrow.

Quoting 1593. Dakster:


No heat?

Heat is on, but it's set on 68F. Too low for my liking lol.
Quoting 1587. KoritheMan:

Might wanna screencap it and treasure it as a keepsake.

Consider it a luxury. :P


Way ahead of you. Saved it along with some others I decided to keep track of.
1598. Dakster
Quoting 1596. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Heat is on, but it's set on 68F. Too low for my liking lol.


Ok.. You are living in the wrong area then.
Quoting 1596. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Heat is on, but it's set on 68F. Too low for my liking lol.


Get a blanket.
1600. Dakster
Of course I say that and it is still above 70F outside where I am at...
Storm is knocking out power in TX..

Extreme Weather in USA on Monday, 25 November, 2013 at 04:26 (04:26 AM) UTC.
Description
Icy winter conditions in West Texas have caused numerous power outages in areas served by AEP Texas. The areas hardest hit include Marfa, Valentine, Fort Davis and Marathon. AEP Texas is sending additional personnel to the area to help local crews with power restoration. More than 250 service and line technicians and support personnel are en route to assist. Additionally, 21 Transmission personnel are working in the Big Lake, Alamito Creek, Friend Ranch and Alpine areas. Icy conditions have downed power lines, cross arms and utility poles due to the increased weight that accumulates on the power lines. This morning nine substations were reported out of service. "We apologize for the inconvenience caused by the storm but we are working as hard as we can to get power restored as quickly and safely as possible," said Bruce Evans, AEP Texas vice president of the electric distribution."
According to wunderground:
Hammond,LA.
Rain showers early will change to a mixture of wintry precipitation later at night. Low near 35F. Winds NW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precip 50%.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
617 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-57 5-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-25 1230-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
617 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING DUE TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS MAY OCCUR.

COLD AIR MAY FILTER INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO THE PUSH EAST AS THE LOW PULLS EAST. HOWEVER...NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLAY AND YIELD RAIN
MIXED WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NO ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEATHER EVENT BUT PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS.


WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE TIDAL LAKES...SOUNDS...AND COASTAL WATERS
MOST OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THANKSGIVING MORNING. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDOR...AND SOME FROST
IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

CAB


Amarillo NWS area snow winner...

1154 AM SNOW 1 S WELLINGTON 34.84N 100.21W
11/24/2013 M10.0 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX CO-OP OBSERVER
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
628 AM MST SUN NOV 24 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SE ABAJAO SNOTEL 37.82N 109.48W
11/24/2013 E41.0 INCH SAN JUAN UT SNOTEL

ESTIMATED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL SINCE 4 PM WEDNESDAY.


&&
1606. ncstorm
Great Sunday night football!!



instead of h*ll freezing over..pipes would be freezing over..

Good night all..
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
5:30 AM IST November 25 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Warning for Andaman and Nicobar Islands (Red Message)

At 0:00 AM UTC, the cyclonic storm over Andaman Sea moved northwestward at about 8 knots, intensified into a severe cyclonic storm, crossed Andaman and Nicobar Islands close to Port Blair in the morning and now lays center near 12.0N 92.5E, close to Port Blair, 1300 km east southeast of Machillipatnam, 1230 km east southeast of Kakinada, and 1140 km of Kalingapatnam.

The system would intensify further gradually into a very severe cyclonic storm and would move west northwestward and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machillipatnam and Kalingapatnam near Kakinada at around noon Thursday.

according to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over Andaman Sea, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 15.5N and 90.0E to 95.0E and Andaman and Nicobar islands. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65. The state of the sea is very high around the center. The central pressure of severe cyclonic storm LEHAR is 990 hPa.

Port Blair reported maximum sustained winds of 55-60 knots with gusts of 70 knots at the time of landfall.
The cyclonic storm LEHAR lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 15.0N. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity increased during past six hrs and are favorable for further intensification. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C.The wind shear is likely to further reduce over south and central Bay of Bengal helping intensification of the system. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is low to moderate (10-20 Knots). The Madden Jullian oscillation index lies over phase 3 with amplitude less than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden-Jullian Oscillation would continue in phase 3 and 4 during next 5 days with amplitude less than 1. These are supportive for intensification.

There is large consensus among the numerical weather prediction models with respect to track and intensification. The numerical weather prediction models suggest west-northwestward to northwestward movement and intensification of the system. However some models suggest slight weakening of system before landfall over Andhra Pradesh. Current forecast is based on consensus numerical weather prediction and synoptic analysis.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 12.7N 91.0E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 13.3N 88.6E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 14.6N 85.6E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 16.6N 83.0E - 90-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Storm Surge
=============
Storm surge of about 1 to 1.5 meters height above astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Andaman & Nicobar Islands within 100 km from the landfall point.
1608. Dakster
Quoting 1605. Skyepony:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
628 AM MST SUN NOV 24 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SE ABAJAO SNOTEL 37.82N 109.48W
11/24/2013 E41.0 INCH SAN JUAN UT SNOTEL

ESTIMATED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL SINCE 4 PM WEDNESDAY.


&&


41" of snow? Did I read that right?
Lehar
Lehar is not being discussed at length on the blog over the last few days, but this is a nasty storm that will cause millions in damage and death.
Quoting 1608. Dakster:


41" of snow? Did I read that right?

I think so.

The designation in front of the number of inches..M or E. I want to remember that is measured & estimated.
1612. Dakster
Thanks Skyepony...

Thats alot of snow!
Lehar ~60kts.. Click pic for loop.

1614. Dakster
Is Lehar still supposed to hit India as a Cat 3?
Models are starting to converge. I'll go 90-100kts peak.

There's the intensity models..

Hasn't had alot of recent strengthening.

1618. Dakster
I google earthed the area and it looks like some of the area is very rural. Hopefully it hits that area and doesn't cause great loss of life.
Alright, get this. I'm on page 12/15 of my Senior Literary Thesis due tomorrow. It's 12:30 AM here. My friend, Elizabeth, is on page 4.
1620. Dakster
Quoting 1619. Astrometeor:
Alright, get this. I'm on page 12/15 of my Senior Literary Thesis due tomorrow. It's 12:30 AM here. My friend, Elizabeth, is on page 4.



I think you may need to help your friend finish her paper. Although you both procrastinated a little.
Quoting 1620. Dakster:



I think you may need to help your friend finish her paper. Although you both procrastinated a little.


Yeah...we kinda learn at school how to be the world's best procrastinators.
I had warned her on Thursday, she said, "I've written 15 page biweeklies (papers in junior year) the night before in a couple of hours flat, how hard can this be?"

Heh.

Some of my classmates finished last weekend, now I have to listen to them rubbing it in my face. I deserve it, though, I was really slow on getting my stuff together.
1622. Dakster
Have fun... Can't say I envy you.

At least you don't have to worry about a Hurricane coming your way.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
8:30 AM IST November 25 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Warning for Andaman and Nicobar Islands (Red Message)

Cyclone Alert for Andhra Pradesh coast (Yellow Message)

At 3:00 AM UTC, the severe cyclonic storm LEHAR over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward at about 8 knots during the past 6 hours and now lays center near 12.0N 92.0E, about 80 km west northwest of Port Blair, 1250 km east southeast of Machillipatnam, 1180 km east southeast of Kakinada and 1100 km southeast of Kalingapatnam.

The system would intensify further gradually into a very severe cyclonic storm and would move west northwestwards and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machillipatnam and Kalingapatnam near Kakinada around noon Thursday.

Forecast and intensity
========================
9 HRS: 12.7N 91.0E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 13.3N 88.6E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 14.6N 85.6E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS: 16.6N 83.0E - 90-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Storm Surge
==================
Storm surge of about 0.5-1.0 meter height above astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Andaman & Nicobar Islands within 100 km from the landfall point during next six hours and decrease thereafter
1624. barbamz


Indonesian Volcano Keeps Erupting After Put on Highest Alert
November 25, 2013, 3:04 PM

JAKARTA, Indonesia - A volcano in the northern part of Indonesia's Sumatra island erupted six times early Monday, sending volcanic ash up to 2,000 meters in the air after days of heightened activity, the country's disaster agency said.

The National Agency for Disaster Management said the eruptions at Mount Sinabung occurred between 1 a.m. and 9 a.m., with winds pushing ash to the east and southeast, away from Indonesia's third largest city of Medan.

The eruptions come a day after Indonesia raised the alert status for Sinabung to the highest level, forcing the evacuation of more than 5,000 people in the area immediately surrounding the volcano. More than 11,000 people altogether have been evacuated since the volcano began erupting sporadically in September. ...


And this is Lehar this morning:





Have a nice day everybody, although it's a Monday with chilly and dangerous weather in the US ;-) Stay safe and warm!


US storm causes death and disruption
BBC News with Video, 25 November 2013 Last updated at 08:11

A winter storm sweeping across the US has killed at least 13 people.

The storm is predicted to continue east over the next several days, just as tens of millions of travellers are expected to hit the road or take to the skies before Thanksgiving on Thursday.

The American Automobile Association estimates more than 43 million people will be travelling over the holiday weekend and icy roads and flooding have already created hazardous conditions in Oklahoma, Texas, California, New Mexico and Arizona.

More than 300 flights were cancelled at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, representing about one-third of the scheduled departures.

And these pictures show the snowfall in Edgewood, New Mexico, where the average daytime temperature is 11C, but where the last few days have seen highs of -6C.

Ok. Going to bed now, nearly 3 AM. Done with Senior Thesis Project.

Good morning barbamz.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
11:30 AM IST November 25 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Alert for Andhra Pradesh coast (Yellow Message)

At 6:00 AM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm LEHAR over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards at about 8 knots during past 6hrs and lay center over southeast Bay of Bengal near 12.0N 91.5E, about 130 km west northwest of Port Blair, 1200 km east southeast of Machillipatnam, 1140 km east southeast of Kakinada and 1060 km southeast of Kalingapatnam.

The system would intensify further gradually into a very severe cyclonic storm and would move west northwestwards and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machillipatnam and Kalingapatnam
near Kakinada around noon Thursday.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, adjoining Bay of Bengal between 9.5N to 17.5N and 88.0E to 95.0E and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. The convection has organized into a central dense overcast pattern. There is also a deep convective banding to the northeast of system center.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center. The central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 988 hPa.

Port Blair reported reported maximum sustained winds of 35 knots with a sea level pressure of 997 hPa.

The cyclonic storm LEHAR lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 15.0N. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity increased during past six hours and are favorable for further intensification. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C. The wind shear is likely to further reduce over south and central bay helping intensification of the system. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is low to moderate (10-20 knots). The Madden Jullian oscillation index lies over phase 3 with amplitude less than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden Jullian oscillation would continue in phase 3 and 4 during next 5 days with amplitude less than 1. These are supportive for intensification.

There is large consensus among the numerical weather prediction models with respect to track and intensification up to 72 hours. After 72 hours there is divergence in the numerical weather prediction models track forecast guidance as a few models suggest recurvature of the system towards northeast direction, under the influence of the expected mid-latitiude westerly trough over northern India. The numerical weather prediction models suggest west northwestward to northwestward movement and intensification of the system during this period. However some models suggest slight weakening of system before landfall over Andhra Pradesh, excluding the guidance from those models suggesting sharp recurvature. However considering the possible impact of mid-lattitude westerly trough which roughly runs along lat 58.0N to the north of 25.0N, the forecast track beyond 72 hours increases the northerly component

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 12.8N 90.1E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 13.6N 88.6E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 14.8N 85.5E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 16.6N 82.3E - 90-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
1627. LargoFl
Good Morning..winds gusting pretty good now here on the coast..
1628. LargoFl
1629. LargoFl
1630. Patrap
1631. beell

click for all Outlook graphics

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CST MON NOV 25 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE A SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO PHASE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ACCELERATES NEWD OVER THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...WITH EXCEPTION TO THE GULF COAST AND SERN
ATLANTIC COAST. A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY RETURN NWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS GA/SC. LATE IN THE PERIOD...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
NEAR THE NC COAST.

...FL AND PORTIONS OF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST...
AN INLAND INTRUSION OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST AND SERN ATLANTIC COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SFC LOW/WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...MOVING INLAND OVER THE WRN FL PENINSULA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO SRN/CNTRL GA BY LATE EVENING. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF INDICATE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID 60S F DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL HINDER SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 250-500 J/KG AT BEST OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH HIGHER VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL WHERE A WARMER AND MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY EXIST.

LOW- AND MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE ERN GULF COAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...AND SHOULD COINCIDE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NRN
FL AND GA/SC. DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF MEAGER BUOYANCY...ROTATING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GULF DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE THE WRN FL PENINSULA LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING. WHILE SOME WEAKENING OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BRR!! 8 degrees outside! That is insane! About the storm potential.... I really don't know what to think for my area. I just checked five different sources and they all say different things! I guess I'll just wait and watch.
1633. beell

WPC Day 2 Probability of ice accumulation ≥ .25" 12Z Tuesday-12Z Wednesday
1634. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
342 am CST Monday Nov 25 2013

Synopsis...


Precipitation will not end completely with the passage of the
surface low. The upper system will move across the area Tuesday
evening with deformation zone precipitation expected. Model
soundings continue to indicate a brief period during the
evening...no more than 3 to 6 hours...where there is at least some
potential for frozen precipitation across the northern portion of
the area. Best window would probably be about 9 PM Tuesday to 3 am
Wednesday with all precipitation cutting off from west to east by
sunrise Wednesday.

Not a lot of variation in temperature guidance today...so not much
adjustment needed. Will go slightly cooler than the warmer mav
guidance for tonight and Tuesday. Tuesday night and Wednesday
temperature forecasts are in pretty good agreement. Wednesday
high temperatures will be 15-20 degrees below normal in many
areas. 35

&&

Long term...

Screaming message in long range portion of the forecast is cold
temperatures for Thanksgiving and black Friday. Much of the
northern half of the area should expect a hard freeze Thanksgiving
morning...with forecast lows approaching record territory.
Portions of the southshore not protected by marine influences are
likely to also see a freeze. Hints from the European model (ecmwf) solution that
the GFS somehow might not be cold enough. Moderation begins during
the day on Thanksgiving as the high moves east...but still
anticipate below freezing temperatures Friday morning...at least
north of the lake. Surface high will anchor along the Atlantic
coast for the weekend...and zonal upper flow will keep moisture
away from the area next weekend. Temperatures will finally return
to near normal on Saturday and Sunday. 35
1635. beell
Current GFS 180 hr Forecast Precip Type
1636. MahFL
Quoting 1571. KoritheMan:

I haven't enlisted yet, in part because my cousin has a wedding in January, and I wanted to at least stay for that.


Sounds like a weak excuse to me.
Once again... Anguilla/St Martin got most of the rain. Another BAD start of the day :/// THIS Makes me sick... as usual.

1638. pottery
Quoting CaribBoy:
Once again... Anguilla/St Martin got most of the rain. Another BAD start of the day :/// THIS Makes me sick... as usual.


It's been raining here for days and days.
Getting kind of tired of it.

You want some ?
upcoming northeaster is reaching all the way down into the boc for energy
Quoting 1638. pottery:

It's been raining here for days and days.
Getting kind of tired of it.

You want some ?
I agree i also have lots of rain to share if someone needs it
1641. Pallis
Quoting 1624. barbamz:


Indonesian Volcano Keeps Erupting After Put on Highest Alert
November 25, 2013, 3:04 PM

JAKARTA, Indonesia - A volcano in the northern part of Indonesia's Sumatra island erupted six times early Monday, sending volcanic ash up to 2,000 meters in the air after days of heightened activity, the country's disaster agency said.

The National Agency for Disaster Management said the eruptions at Mount Sinabung occurred between 1 a.m. and 9 a.m., with winds pushing ash to the east and southeast, away from Indonesia's third largest city of Medan.

The eruptions come a day after Indonesia raised the alert status for Sinabung to the highest level, forcing the evacuation of more than 5,000 people in the area immediately surrounding the volcano. More than 11,000 people altogether have been evacuated since the volcano began erupting sporadically in September. ...


And this is Lehar this morning:





Have a nice day everybody, although it's a Monday with chilly and dangerous weather in the US ;-) Stay safe and warm!


US storm causes death and disruption
BBC News with Video, 25 November 2013 Last updated at 08:11

A winter storm sweeping across the US has killed at least 13 people.

The storm is predicted to continue east over the next several days, just as tens of millions of travellers are expected to hit the road or take to the skies before Thanksgiving on Thursday.

The American Automobile Association estimates more than 43 million people will be travelling over the holiday weekend and icy roads and flooding have already created hazardous conditions in Oklahoma, Texas, California, New Mexico and Arizona.

More than 300 flights were cancelled at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, representing about one-third of the scheduled departures.

And these pictures show the snowfall in Edgewood, New Mexico, where the average daytime temperature is 11C, but where the last few days have seen highs of -6C.

I watched the video of raining stones in Sicily from Mt. Etna. Things could be worse for us right now.
1642. Torito
Lehar is just this exploding area of convection......

Quoting 1640. belizeit:
I agree i also have lots of rain to share if someone needs it
One of these days, they're going to invent a machine that let you share precip.
1644. Torito
1645. Torito
Tomorrow for me......

Sleet...freezing rain likely with a chance of snow in the morning...then rain in the afternoon. Rain may be heavy at times in the afternoon. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Ice accumulation around a trace. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming east 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Quoting 1642. Torito:
Lehar is just this exploding area of convection......

It has been impacting the poor strip of land for the past day and a half.A storm intensifying is worse than a weakening storm.
Quoting 1643. interstatelover7165:
One of these days, they're going to invent a machine that let you share precip.
That would be great. Maybe not then our rains would turn political and that would be horrible.
Just to say... I ALSO have Excess rain to share...




Flash BOOM lightning and HEAVY rain....


1649. SuzK
Quoting 1641. Pallis:
I watched the video of raining stones in Sicily from Mt. Etna. Things could be worse for us right now.


Do we need to re-evaluate Asylum Films 'Stonenado' movie for prophetic forecasting power??? ;D
1650. barbamz
Quoting 1641. Pallis:
I watched the video of raining stones in Sicily from Mt. Etna. Things could be worse for us right now.


Watched it too, if it's this one.

And here another one, as I just see, much more scary!


------------

Edit: Nice sat-loop of the eruption on CIMSS



1651. barbamz

Texas etc.
The Chance for snow/ice has dropped over SouthCentral Tx.
Yesterday the NWS was calling for 1-3" of ice/snow over some areas of the hill country region and that is no longer in the forecast. Temperatures have stayed a little warmer than expected over most of the area.


1653. beell
Quoting 1651. barbamz:

Texas etc.


Texas etcetra? I am deeply wounded.
:)
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A very cold rainy 35 degrees with a 30 degree wind chill. A high expected of 40. I'm glad my heat is fixed! There's ice about an hour north of me. It was only supposed to be possibly the Shreveport area, guess the weather wasn't listening to the weather forecast.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Nutty Buckwheat Buttermilk Pancakes, fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, Spinach & Dubliner Cheese Egg Cups, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, Sausage Strata, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
1655. SLU
Quoting 1637. CaribBoy:
Once again... Anguilla/St Martin got most of the rain. Another BAD start of the day :/// THIS Makes me sick... as usual.



LOL. I came on the blog this morning to say that I hope you got your share of the spoils last night when I saw the convection but now i'm reading that it's yet another false alarm. It's been a real disappointing rainy season for many.
1656. barbamz
Quoting 1653. beell:


Texas etcetra? I am deeply wounded.
:)


Sorry, lol. Was too lazy to look up all your contries down there and especially check the spelling :)

-------------------


Pagasa: Storm surge caused by Yolanda "unexpected"

Star Cagayan de Oro Sunday, Monday, November 25, 2013

BEFORE Super Typhoon Yolanda (international name: Haiyan) entered the country, the weather bureau already predicted it would cause a storm surge, but the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) did not expect the damage it brought could be that massive and destructive.

"We predicted a storm surge will hit the coastal areas (of Yolanda's path), but we had no idea it would affect the inland areas as well," Nelly Embalsado, Pagasa weather specialist, told Sun. ...
1657. barbamz

Water vapor.
1658. Guysgal
Forecast for Memphis, TN ... Light wintry precipitation expected today and tomorrow...

A late Fall storm in the lower Mississippi River valley may bring
a several of rounds of light wintry precipitation to the midsouth
this morning... tonight and again tomorrow night. Temperatures will
warm enough during the daytime to transform all precipitation to
rain... but during the overnight hours and morning hours... light
sleet or snow will be possible. Minimal accumulations of sleet and
snow are possible... mainly on elevated surfaces. Some freezing
rain cannot be totally ruled out but dos not look likely. Any
accumulating winter precipitation will melt quickly as the
transition to rain occurs this morning and again tomorrow morning.
1659. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
500 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-261000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
500 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EAST WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND
20 KNOTS OR SO WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 7 FEET OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ON TUESDAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH WORSE CONDITIONS FOUND IN ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT MIGHT FORM.

1660. LargoFl
Tues thru Wens Pay Attention to your Local Alerts..could get Interesting....
1661. LargoFl
NorthEast Florida......................
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE WIND OR
WIND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
1662. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST...TRACKING NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST LATE TONIGHT. AN
INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE COAST ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LOW CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...TRACKING
NEAR THE COAST...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY NOON. GIVEN THIS FORECAST...THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. AGAIN A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWS TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS
WOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
Quoting 1661. LargoFl:
NorthEast Florida......................
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE WIND OR
WIND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$


Mets here in Orlando are concerned come Tuesday afternoon for tornadoes and some could be strong ones. SPC seems to be dropping the ball as is always the case in FL.

Anyways good morning. Link
Quoting 1655. SLU:


LOL. I came on the blog this morning to say that I hope you got your share of the spoils last night when I saw the convection but now i'm reading that it's yet another false alarm. It's been a real disappointing rainy season for many.


:-)
Quoting 1638. pottery:

It's been raining here for days and days.
Getting kind of tired of it.

You want some ?


Yes of course! Lol I'm NEVER tired with it XD
Rain should arrive in FL come this evening and then come daybreak is when we could start seeing some of these storms rotate as they move NE toward the west coast of FL from Tampa north.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
405 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SURF TODAY...

...GULF STORM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NC COAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE
BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
FROM THE ATLANTIC. WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS TIGHT AS SUNDAY WHEN WINDS GUSTED TO 30 TO 40 MPH
ACROSS E CENTRAL FL...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS STRATOCU LAYER HOLDS
FIRM ACROSS THE AREA. E/ESE WINDS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLC WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF AT THE BEACHES AND HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY THROUGH
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NRN AREAS TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD
INDUCE AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIFT
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL TOWARD TUE MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY SHOWER CHANCES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS LAKE COUNTY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ALONG THE ST LUCIE/MARTIN COUNTY COAST.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
US WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE FLOW BY TUESDAY...KICKING OUT EASTWARDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MERGE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SWINGING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR THE LOCAL WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT ALONG WITH THE 90-100KT JET STREAK DRIVING IT
LEAD TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT STEADILY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE TUE EVENING...BEFORE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC
COAST AHEAD OF THE MERGED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DOMINANT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...BRINGING THROUGH A COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL HAVE LIFTED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...KEEPING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE GULF
LOW. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT HOW MUCH DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS 1.8"-2") AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR DECENT COVERAGE SHOULD HEATING MATERIALIZE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF POINTING TO 850MB WINDS OF 35-45KT OVERNIGHT WITH
HELICITY VALUES MAXING OUT IN THE 300-400 RANGE ALONG AND N OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR TUES AFTN/EVENING. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SEE TEXT FOR
THE TIME PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL OR FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING
INTO THE WEST FLORIDA COAST AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH THROUGH THE PENINSULA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AREA NOT FULLY DRYING OUT UNTIL
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
507 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
EAST WINDS UP TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LARGER INLAND LAKES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH 4 PM.

.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL KEEP MODERATE
TO LARGE SWELLS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS
INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES WITH LARGE
BREAKING WAVES UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET. THE LARGE WAVES WILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. THE SURF MAY CAUSE MINOR
BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM 1230 PM TO 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS IMPACTING THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. ASK
ABOUT OCEAN HAZARDS WHEN YO ARRIVE AT THE BEACH AND DO SWIM ALONE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WILL BE A HAZARD FOR SMALL CRAFT ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE ON TUESDAY AND
SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...POSSIBLY A SQUALL
LINE...WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO
ACQUIRE ROTATION. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGS A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.


MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK
THANKSGIVING MORNING.
Quoting barbamz:


Sorry, lol. Was too lazy to look up all your contries down there and especially check the spelling :)

-------------------


Pagasa: Storm surge caused by Yolanda "unexpected"

Star Cagayan de Oro Sunday, Monday, November 25, 2013

BEFORE Super Typhoon Yolanda (international name: Haiyan) entered the country, the weather bureau already predicted it would cause a storm surge, but the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) did not expect the damage it brought could be that massive and destructive.

"We predicted a storm surge will hit the coastal areas (of Yolanda's path), but we had no idea it would affect the inland areas as well," Nelly Embalsado, Pagasa weather specialist, told Sun. ...


This is a worry I have with PAGASA. Most people on here know that storm surge is a risk especially with a cat 3-5 Cyclone.
1673. beell
The weather forecast cycle.

1674. ARiot
It is probably a good thing that east-coast storm isn't sliding far enough east to dump significant snow on the heavily-populated I-95 corridor (DC, Baltimore, Philly, etc.)

One of last week's models (the EU?) put it off the shore a bit, letting the cold in the beltway and up the coast, dropping enough snow to cause problems.
Quoting 1669. StormTrackerScott:
507 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
EAST WINDS UP TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LARGER INLAND LAKES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH 4 PM.

.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL KEEP MODERATE
TO LARGE SWELLS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS
INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES WITH LARGE
BREAKING WAVES UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET. THE LARGE WAVES WILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. THE SURF MAY CAUSE MINOR
BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM 1230 PM TO 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS IMPACTING THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. ASK
ABOUT OCEAN HAZARDS WHEN YO ARRIVE AT THE BEACH AND DO SWIM ALONE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WILL BE A HAZARD FOR SMALL CRAFT ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE ON TUESDAY AND
SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...POSSIBLY A SQUALL
LINE...WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO
ACQUIRE ROTATION. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGS A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.


MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK
THANKSGIVING MORNING.



So where does it say large, violent long track tornadoes or are we still "idiots"?
1676. ncstorm
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013

VALID NOV 25/0000 UTC THRU NOV 28/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS..INCLUDING THE 00Z
UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL/AND ECMWF ALONG WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES
AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE...

THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z
NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS.


...CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...INTERACTING WITH
AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROF...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/18Z GEFS
MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO COME DOWN MORE
TOWARD THE HANDLING OF THE SRN STREAM UPR LOW AS MODELS HAVE FEWER
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE NRN STREAM S/WV AMPLIFICATION ACRS THE GT
LAKES REGION TUES INTO WED. THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF ARE THE
FASTER/SLOWER RESPECTIVE SOLNS WITH REGARD TO THE SRN STREAM
ENERGY AS IT COMES OUT ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND UP THE EAST
COAST AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROF ON TUES NIGHT/WED NIGHT. THESE
TIMING ISSUES DETERMINE WHETHER SFC LOW WILL COME OUT AS ONE MAIN
SYSTEM OR TWO LOWS WITH NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS LEADING TO EARLIER
SFC LOW DVLPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TUES
NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM IS RATHER CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUN
TIMINGWISE..THOUGH IS NOT AS QUICK TO WEAKEN THE SRN STREAM UPR
TROF..AND IS A TAD MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GT LAKES/OH VALLEY UPR
TROF. ITS SOLN BETTER FITS THE 12Z EC MEAN AND THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SPREAD. LIKEWISE THE 00Z GFS MAINTAINS REASONABLY GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH ITS PRIOR RUN..ONLY A TAD FASTER WITH THE SRN
STREAM SYSTEM..AND A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH THE NRN STREAM UPR
TROF COMPARED TO CONSENSUS. THIS EWD SHIFT OF THE THE NRN STREAM
UPR TROF MAY BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY TIED TO SOMEWHAT FASTER
UPSTREAM S/WV ENERGY MOVING SEWD THRU SASK/MANITOBA REGION WED
MRNG COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE LATTER RESULTS
IN A SLIGHT EWD DISPLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST..THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL
AND ECMWF ARE ALL LEFT OF THE GFS/NAM WITH THE LOW AND QUITE A BIT
DEEPER WITH THE 00Z EC HAVING SPED UP SRN STREAM SYSTEM
CONSIDERABLY OVER ITS PRIOR RUN. OVERALL..WOULD TAKE A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APCH WITH A TRACK BETWEEN THE UKMET/GFS
EXTREMES...BLENDED WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR
MASS FIELD GUIDANCE. ALL SUGGEST A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE WITH NRN
SYSTEM SLOWING AND BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT LOW ON WED AS IT
INTENSIFIES NWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND. VERY ANOMALOUS 85H-5H V
COMPONENT MSTR FLUX VALUES SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SEE QPFPFD AND QPFHSD FOR PRECIPITATION/WINTER
WEATHER DETAILS.
1677. intampa
all these maps and predictions of rain and storms for central florida means one thing. it will not rain at all and if it does it will be just a sprinkle.
Quoting beell:
The weather forecast cycle.



Classic Beell
G'morning from Central OK,

Well, this says it all, from the Oklahoma mesonet:

Some Mesonet rain gauges in the state may currently be impacted by frozen precipitation. This precipitation will be recorded on our maps when temperatures rise above freezing and the snow and ice melt in the gauges

Meanwhile, everything good in my neck o' the woods. But to our south - especially the SW corner of the state - up to 12" of snow was reported, leaving the area looking like this.



If you think driving is difficult, imagine flying:

Icy Weather Causes Flock Of Ducks To Crash Near Noble

"It was actually icing their wings and their tail feathers," said Rondi Large, director at Wildcare Foundation in Noble . . . most of them we found, their feathers were covered in icicles."

Some were rescued, not all, as they apparently mistook an iced over road for an ice-covered body of water (I imagine they look the same from above in the middle of a storm).

Anyways, stay warm, stay safe, have a good one.
Quoting 1653. beell:


Texas etcetra? I am deeply wounded.
:)


Hey, your in Texas - those of us in OK feel slighted (j/k barbamz), I have no idea what any of the divisions in Germany are . . .
rain in mm :/



Though the thundershower that passed through around 4:30 am seems to have dropped more rain in my neighborhood than at the weather center. The rain woke me up... the noise was very strong xD
1682. Torito
Tomorrow's TCFP.

1683. Torito
GFS Short range 51 hours out.

1684. Torito
Navgem 54 hours.

1685. Torito
GEM 60 hours out.

1686. Torito
NAM 51 hours.

Quoting 1643. interstatelover7165:
One of these days, they're going to invent a machine that let you share precip.


WOULD BE THE BEST GIFT EVER!!! lol
1689. Torito
Quoting 1688. CaribBoy:


WOULD BE THE BEST GIFT EVER!!! lol


Ill send you some snow.... LOL There should be plenty this year.

Besides... I doubt it has ever snowed there before.
Quoting 1648. CaicosRetiredSailor:
Just to say... I ALSO have Excess rain to share...




Flash BOOM lightning and HEAVY rain....




very nice, enjoy :-)
Quoting 1689. Torito:


Ill send you some snow.... LOL There should be plenty this year.



XD Lol would be fine too xD. I like the snow.
Quoting 1689. Torito:


Ill send you some snow.... LOL There should be plenty this year.

Besides... I doubt it has ever snowed there before.


Maybe that 100 000 years ago, my island was as wet as the equatorial regions.... and as cold as the north pole 1 000 000 years ago xD
What!? No mention of the 27 degree freeze that's in the forecast all the way down here near the coast?? Sometimes the scientific weather forecast discussion annoys me...

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
320 am EST Mon Nov 25 2013

Short term [tonight through wednesday]...
a surface low will develop in the western Gulf tonight ahead of a
strong upper level low dropping sswd through Texas. By daybreak
Tuesday, the surface low is forecast to be just south of New Orleans
with rain overspreading the entire tri-state region. Temperatures
will remain nearly steady or rise slightly during the overnight
hours. There remains a non zero threat for severe weather overnight
with with the area of concern mainly along the Florida Panhandle
coast and adjacent coastal waters associated with the associated
warm front. This could change depending on the exact track of the
surface low and inland penetration of the warm front. For now, the
threat potential is too marginal and uncertain for Storm Prediction Center to issue any
severe probabilities.

The low will then track inland from the Florida Panhandle into the
Carolina's Tuesday through Tuesday night with the warm front lifting
across all but our northwest zones. As the airmass destabilizes in
the warm sector, coupled with a 40-50 knots low level jet we may see an
increased threat for severe weather Tuesday. Destabilization may be
hindered somewhat by the substantial cloud cover and widespread
precipitation with this system. Nevertheless, a few storms may
produce severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado is also possible.
Pops during the Tuesday/Tuesday night timeframe will be likely to
categorical. Rain will gradually taper off from west to east
Wednesday with the passage of the cold front and upper level trough.
High temperatures Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to around 70 for
the northernmost zones and lower to mid 70s elsewhere. Min temps
Tuesday night will range from around 40 degrees northwest to mid 50s
southeast. Then on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front, highs
will range from the upper 40s northwest to around 60 in Dixie
County.

&&

Long term [wednesday night through sunday]...
most of the guidance shows the surface low and associated front
exiting to the east by Wednesday night. A fairly cold airmass will
move into the region and linger through the period, keeping
temperatures below average with dry conditions prevailing.
WOCN11 CWTO 251437
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 9:37 AM EST
Monday 25 November 2013.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= Niagara
=new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
=new= Kingston - Prince Edward
=new= Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
=new= Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
=new= City of Ottawa
=new= Gatineau
=new= Prescott and Russell
=new= Cornwall - Morrisburg
=new= Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake.

Potential for first winter storm of the season Tuesday night
Into Wednesday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A major low pressure system originating from the Gulf of Mexico is
expected to intensify and move towards the Northeastern United States
by Wednesday morning.

Snow associated with this system is expected to start late in the day
Tuesday or Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday. There is still
some uncertainty with regards to the evolution of this system.
However, there is a possibility that some areas may see in excess of
15 centimetres of snow. There is also a risk of freezing rain.

As the majority of the precipitation is expected to fall Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, it is likely that the Wednesday morning
commute will be quite difficult.

Winter storm watches may be issued later as more information becomes
available. Environment Canada continues to monitor this developing
system closely.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End


1695. Torito
YAY! MY FIRST ADVISORY FOR WINTER!


... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 am to 4 PM EST
Tuesday...


The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow... sleet and freezing
rain... which is in effect from 3 am to 4 PM EST Tuesday.

* Precipitation type... precipitation will start as a period of
snow and sleet late tonight then will likely change to freezing
rain Tuesday morning.

* Accumulations... up to an inch of snow and sleet by Tuesday
morning followed by around a tenth of an inch of freezing rain
Tuesday afternoon.

* Timing... beginning between 3 am and 6 am and continuing through
late afternoon Tuesday.

* Temperatures... in the mid to upper 20s tonight and lower 30s
Tuesday.

* Winds... becoming northeast 5 mph.

* Impacts... the combination of snow... sleet and freezing rain will
produce slippery conditions late tonight through Tuesday
afternoon.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.



1697. Torito
Lot'sa Snow.

The page change lull
1699. Torito
Quoting 1698. PalmBeachWeather:
The page change lull



Come on..... 2 more posts.... LOL...


Alessia is weakening some more.

Quoting 1699. Torito:



Come on..... 2 more posts.... LOL...


Alessia is weakening some more.

LOL
1701. Torito



ARGH NEW PAGE!
Hey, I retired last week...I have all day
1703. Torito



Yay. new page.
1704. Torito
Quoting 1702. PalmBeachWeather:
Hey, I retired last week...I have all day


LOL
Speaking of weather....Anyone else see Miley at the AMA awards last night... She may be worth millions, but that girl is screwed up...
1706. Torito
I wonder if Dr. Masters is making a new blog entry right now.. It has been 3 days.
1707. GatorWX


Have a great day everyone! Safe travels this week.
Quoting 1706. Torito:
I wonder if Dr. Masters is making a new blog entry right now.. It has been 3 days.




he will make one when he is ready two
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
.