WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

October 2012: Earth's 5th warmest October on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:18 PM GMT on November 15, 2012

October 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest October on record, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today. NASA rated October 2012 the 2nd warmest October on record. Global temperature records begin in 1880. October 2012 global land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 4th warmest on record. October 2012 was the 332nd consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average October global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in October 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 2nd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of October 2012 in his October 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2012, the 5th warmest October for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Several regions around the globe were much warmer than average, including northeastern and southwestern North America, most of South America, northern Africa, southeastern Europe, southwestern Asia, and far eastern Russia. A heat wave brought record warmth to large areas of Brazil and Bolivia. Record heat was also present in southern India. It was cooler than average in parts of northern Siberia, Mongolia, and northern China along with much of central North America. Western Canada was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch discontinued
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C above average as of November 12. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has cancelled their El Niño watch, and expects neutral El Niño conditions for the coming winter. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in October 2012 (thick black line) was the second lowest since satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice extent has sunk to the lowest values on record for this time of year during the first half of November. The previous record low occurred in 2007 (magenta line.) Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and meteomodel.pl.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest October extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during October reached its second lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Beginning in late October, Arctic sea ice extent began setting new daily record lows again, and it is very likely we will have a new monthly record low for the month of November. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my October 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc
Arctic sea ice comparison, this year and previous record 2007

Wow, that was fast, Thank you Dr. Masters
Thank you. What does this mean for the Northeast now? Will we have another snow drought like last year?
Thanks Dr. Masters.

From the previous blog, here's one more link discussing ideas for infrastructure improvements. It's from the Room for Debate series in the New York Times and features several different perspectives.
Should New York Build Sea Gates?


In local weather news, we had our first frost last night and there was ice in the bird bath. Haven't seen that for a long time. Our normal first frost date is around the end of October, so we are two weeks late. For the first time this fall, I had to fire up the wood stove. But it's going to be a beautiful day today...cool and sunny...then chilly again tonight.

Hope everyone has a good Thursday!
Wow!

That blog switched out fast!

Did the Nuth Kay-linah Senate pass a law against making observations of storms off the coast now?
Quoting SouthShoreLI:
Thank you. What does this mean for the Northeast now? Will we have another snow drought like last year?


Not necessarily, many other factors can easily trump neutral conditions that could lead to a snowy season. If the current pattern were to hold throughout most of this winter as we have seen the last 3 to 4 weeks, then the Northeast WILL get its fair share of the fluffy stuff.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Mother Nature giveth and taketh away. The SE might need some drought relief again by the Spring if we don't get some rain this Winter.
Thanks for the re-update and new info Dr. Masters
El Ninio watch discontinued..
Arctic sea ice extent in October 2012 was the second lowest since satellite records began in 1979...
October 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest October on record, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today...
Thanks again
This shows how the arctic sea ice fluctuated around "normal" until around AD2000. Then it started departing more and more away from average. China has been a member of World Trade Organization since 11 December 2001. It is given special status as a "developing country". When it was admitted to the WTO it was considered the worlds third largest economy.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/se a.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg

Quoting wxmod:
This shows how the arctic sea ice fluctuated around "normal" until around AD2000. Then it started departing more and more away from average. China has been a member of World Trade Organization since 11 December 2001. It is given special status as a "developing country". When it was admitted to the WTO it was considered the worlds third largest economy.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/se a.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg



That's a great graph wx..
I'm not sure how China is shown on here..
What do you see that I'm missing?
TIA.. :)
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Not necessarily, many other factors can easily trump neutral conditions that could lead to a snowy season. If the current pattern were to hold throughout most of this winter as we have seen the last 3 to 4 weeks, then the Northeast WILL get its fair share of the fluffy stuff.


Thank you! I don't mind the snow. I missed it so much last year when all we got was a lousy 4". I just hope Mother Nature doesn't deliver anymore hurricane force winds. Can't say I love those after experiencing Sandy.
Thanks Dr. Masters!

WunderGirl12
Man, forecasts have really struggled locally as of late. Yesterday they had our area getting up into the low 80's today and sunny. Well instead we are struggling to get above 70, and cloudy with a light but cool north breeze. It seems people have a bit of a "balmy Florida bias" as I call it around here. It seems forecasters are slow to show cooler air in their forecast more than a day or two in advance, but have no problem forecasting 82 7 days out. I'm quite sure the upper 70's forecast early next week won't materialize either. Low to mid 70's seems more likely :)

I know its Florida, and we don't have cold winters most of the time, but we are often cooler than you might expect. Everyone I've talked to that vacations here says its "cooler down here than they show on the weather". I don't think its a coincidence they say that.

BTW, contrary to what many think, its generally hot and humid only May into the first half of October, we get plenty of nice cool breezes late October through March, with occasional colder spells and warmer spells thrown in between. Florida heat isn't as long lasting as we get credited for.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Man, forecasts have really struggled locally as of late. Yesterday they had our area getting up into the low 80's today and sunny. Well instead we are struggling to get above 70, and cloudy with a light but cool north breeze. It seems people have a bit of a "balmy Florida bias" as I call it around here. It seems forecasters are slow to show cooler air in their forecast more than a day or two in advance, but have no problem forecasting 82 7 days out. I'm quite sure the upper 70's forecast early next week won't materialize either. Low to mid 70's seems more likely :)

I know its Florida, and we don't have cold winters most of the time, but we are often cooler than you might expect. Everyone I've talked to that vacations here says its "cooler down here than they show on the weather". I don't think its a coincidence they say that.

BTW, contrary to what many think, its generally hot and humid only May into the first half of October, we get plenty of nice cool breezes late October through March, with occasional colder spells and warmer spells thrown in between.


It also depends on where in Florida you are. Here in SW Florida it is hotter longer. I know this because I lived in Tampa for a few years when I was younger and the climate is different from Tampa northward than it is in South Florida. You can tell from the flora fauna alone as it changes dramatically just north of Tampa.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


It also depends on where in Florida you are. Here in SW Florida it is hotter longer. I know this because I lived in Tampa for a few years when I was younger and the climate is different from Tampa northward than it is in South Florida. You can tell from the flora fauna alone as it changes dramatically just north of Tampa.



Yeah I was referring to Central Florida, yes there is a big difference between here and down there. I've seen many days where we have highs in the 50's and 60's during the winter here but it still manages to crack the low to mid 70's down there. It's almost like a barrier. I personally like Central and North Florida better because we still have that tropical-like feel here much of the year but we still get a nice long change in season instead of the same warm weather pattern 90% of the year. I don't like real cold, that is northern cold with snow and cold cloudy days. But I don't like endless warmth either. 80's to me get old and boring if you have them too often. It's nice to have a colder season with 70's, 60's and even 50's for highs can be nice as long as its not all the time.
Quoting wxmod:
This shows how the arctic sea ice fluctuated around "normal" until around AD2000. Then it started departing more and more away from average. China has been a member of World Trade Organization since 11 December 2001. It is given special status as a "developing country". When it was admitted to the WTO it was considered the worlds third largest economy.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/se a.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg



I'm surprised that he reduced albedo at the poles as a result of Arctic Ocean ice melt hasn't had a more pronounced effect on northern hemisphere temperatures.

Siberia has warmed more than ny other place on the planet due to reduced albedo as a result of reduced snow cover.
Thanks Doc.
airport clouds
Quoting luvtogolf:
Nice jobs report out today. Why am I not surprised one week after our so-called president is re-elected. And let's not blame it on weather. Put the blame where it belongs and that is our leader.
Please do not start Luvtogolf. New blog with many weather related topics to cover.
The Mid-November update of the ENSO Models is out and shows a nice consensus of them being at Neutral thru early Summer 2013. The only model that is not in that consensus is the CFSv2 that goes to Weak El Nino by early Summer.

airport clouds off England today. MODIS
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The Mid-November update of the ENSO Models is out and shows a nice consensus of them being at Neutral thru early Summer 2013. The only model that is not in that consensus is the CFSv2 that goes to Weak El Nino by early Summer.

I think Nino loaded up the truck and moved to Beverly.......Hills that is..
Quoting wxmod:
airport clouds


Those appear to be regular stratus or cirrus clouds with embedded contrails (which would make sense - the same conditions that result in cloud formation would encourage long-lived contrails).
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah I was referring to Central Florida, yes there is a big difference between here and down there. I've seen many days where we have highs in the 50's and 60's during the winter here but it still manages to crack the low to mid 70's down there. It's almost like a barrier. I personally like Central and North Florida better because we still have that tropical-like feel here much of the year but we still get a nice long change in season instead of the same warm weather pattern 90% of the year. I don't like real cold, that is northern cold with snow and cold cloudy days. But I don't like endless warmth either. 80's to me get old and boring if you have them too often. It's nice to have a colder season with 70's, 60's and even 50's for highs can be nice as long as its not all the time.


It is currently 80 and partly cloudy in Ft Myers Jedkins. Our local mets are saying the cold front won't make it here until late Friday night/Saturday morning. Next week we are forcast to not make it out of the 70's for highs
The rough weather near the Carolinas may be there for quite some time...90 hours GFS..
airport clouds, China today. MODIS
Quoting yonzabam:


Well off topic, but it's nothing to do with whoever happens to be your incumbent president.

The global economic recession, soon to be a depression far worse than the 30s, is due to a number of factors. But the main factor is debt. I don't know what % of tax revenue goes towards paying just the interest on the $16 trillion US national debt, but it's a major factor weighing down the economy. And it all started with Reagan almost tripling the debt from $1 trillion to just under $3 trillion in his 8 years in office. Can't blame Obama for that.

Other factors are state, municipal and personal debt, the collapse in property prices, immigration, outsourcing of manufacturing industry to the east, and an increasingly aged and unproductive population creating huge unfunded pensions and Medicaid liabilities.

Still want to blame Obama?
Lets add the cost of two wars, natural disasters, government bailouts and deregulation.......I believe I,m going to puke.
Quoting MrMixon:


Those appear to be regular stratus or cirrus clouds with embedded contrails (which would make sense - the same conditions that result in cloud formation would encourage long-lived contrails).


That is what they are, but I suggest that the cirrus-stratus may not be there if it weren't for the airport constantly feeding them with soot. These clouds are widespread and are affecting the global weather patterns and decreasing rainfall locally.
Dr. Master's Rules of the Road:

11. Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science,
science policy, or the blog topic.
2012 season overview reposted mostly cuz it was too much work to disappear into the back blogs almost immediately after it was posted due to the appearance of a new blog.

954 CybrTeddy: Looking at the latest models, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hurricane season is probably over. No models show any development, and the GFS has dropped development through 384 hours, which puts us in December.

That would put the seasonal stats at 19-10-1,
with >55 billion dollars in damages, mostly from Sandy and some from Isaac.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season is the 3rd most active hurricane season ever recorded, tied with last year, 2011, 2010, 1995, and 1887. This is the only time in recorded history that there have been three consecutive seasons with more than 16 named storms. This operates under the assumption that there will be no more named storms this season, or named storms declared in the post season.

This season began very early and was unusual from the start, with for the first time since 1908 we saw two storms develop before June, and even more unusual with the fact that we were at Debby by June. However, no storms developed in July. The assumption was at the beginning of August that we would only have 12 named storms this year at least, this turned out to be completely wrong.

Odds are that Hurricane Sandy will probably be upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, and possibly even Hurricane Gordon, so I will hold off on commenting on the low amount of major hurricanes compared to seasonal activity. It is slightly possible that Beryl will be upgraded to a hurricane upon landfall in Florida, though there is little evidence to do so other than some high SFMR reports.

That would put the seasonal total more like 19-10-3 with two additional major hurricanes.

The 'it only takes one' factor came into play this year with devastating results. Hurricane Sandy became the 2nd most destructive hurricane to ever hit the United States with over 50 billion dollars in damages, well over Ike and Andrew's totals.

The names to be retired this year is Sandy, and probably Isaac (2 billion dollars in damages to Louisiana).

We have only 15 days left in the season, so here's to a peaceful post-season after the season ends, and to a wonderful Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Relax Global Warming is over...

Link
Quoting wxmod:


That is what they are, but I suggest that the cirrus-stratus may not be there if it weren't for the airport constantly feeding them with soot.


Well, that's a testable hypothesis. Contrails certainly do cause clouds under the right conditions, but of course cirrus and stratus clouds form all the time without the aid of contrails.

Since you have an interest in this topic I think one possible way to suss out the overall effect of contrails on cloud formation is to find a location where there is an area of considerable air traffic adjacent to an area with much less air traffic. If you can confirm that atmospheric conditions at both locations are roughly the same through time you could then keep track of cloud density at both locations over a long period of time and record your results. I'd love to see someone do this (or, if it's already been done - I've love to read the results).


Quoting wxmod:These clouds are widespread and are affecting the global weather patterns and decreasing rainfall locally.


Is your assertion of reduced rainfall speculation or do you (or someone you know) have numbers to back it up? I'm not being snippy... I'm genuinely curious.
Quoting yonzabam:


I'm surprised that he reduced albedo at the poles as a result of Arctic Ocean ice melt hasn't had a more pronounced effect on northern hemisphere temperatures.

Siberia has warmed more than ny other place on the planet due to reduced albedo as a result of reduced snow cover.


I think there must be a lag from albedo reduction to area warming, maybe because the deep ocean currents are keeping the water cold on the surface.
Quoting yonzabam:


Well off topic, but it's nothing to do with whoever happens to be your incumbent president.

The global economic recession, soon to be a depression far worse than the 30s, is due to a number of factors. But the main factor is debt. I don't know what % of tax revenue goes towards paying just the interest on the $16 trillion US national debt, but it's a major factor weighing down the economy. And it all started with Reagan almost tripling the debt from $1 trillion to just under $3 trillion in his 8 years in office. Can't blame Obama for that.

Other factors are state, municipal and personal debt, the collapse in property prices, immigration, outsourcing of manufacturing industry to the east, and an increasingly aged and unproductive population creating huge unfunded pensions and Medicaid liabilities. In fact, you might call it a 'perfect storm'.

Still want to blame Obama?


As someone from New York City, you would probably guess what side I would take on a political issue, and I'm very political, but we come here to discuss weather! Can we keep it on topic please? There are plenty of forums on the net where you can vent on politics. Thanks!
Quoting Arisilde:
Relax Global Warming is over...

Link



it stopped 16 yrs ago??
Quoting MrMixon:


Well, that's a testable hypothesis. Contrails certainly do cause clouds under the right conditions, but of course cirrus and stratus clouds form all the time without the aid of contrails.

Since you have an interest in this topic I think one possible way to suss out the overall effect of contrails on cloud formation is to find a location where there is an area of considerable air traffic adjacent to an area with much less air traffic. If you can confirm that atmospheric conditions at both locations are roughly the same through time you could then keep track of cloud density at both locations over a long period of time and record your results. I'd love to see someone do this (or, if it's already been done - I've love to read the results).




Is your assertion of reduced rainfall speculation or do you (or someone you know) have numbers to back it up? I'm not being snippy... I'm genuinely curious.


The amount of cirrus, on satellite photos, is greater in the northern hemisphere than the southern. There is more human activity in the northern, and more soot. Much of the soot in the stratosphere must come from aircraft. The cirrus around industrialized nations also shows up less white on satellite photos than around the rest of the world.
About your second question: clouds that produce rainfall must lift through the atmosphere. There have been studies, though I don't have them at my finger tips, that show that smog reduces rainfall. Smog contributes to stagnant air and stagnant air is not rising and so rains less. Geoengineering in the upper atmosphere has been shown to decrease rainfall by about 20 percent. Airport clouds are small scale, inadvertent geoengineering.
Quoting yoboi:


it was 10 when he was elected now over 16 trillion now can blame 6 trillion in 4 yrs with him...


Good point, yoboi. I don't know if your figures are correct, but there's something operating here that people ought to know about - the exponential curve.

When you keep on multiplying by a given multiplier, you reach a point where it 'takes off vertically'. The interest on the national debt has reached that point. It's no surprise that the increase has gotten so extreme in Obama's presidency.

I have no idea what happens when we reach the vertical take off point, but google 'exponential curve' on google images.
Quoting Arisilde:
Relax Global Warming is over...

Link


I never knew we even had global warming to begin with. News to me !!
Looking at Dr. Masters' L&O anomaly image it appears that a major part of the E. Pacific was colder than normal for month of October. I know that mets have updated their forecasts to say an El Nino pattern will most likely not setup. I sure hope a La Nina is not on the horizon. I'm curious to know if there is a month-to-month animated version of that graphic available.
What's up with all these 'H's in the US. A little weird to not see any Low's? Any answers for this? It is November and it should be more unsettled than this at this time of year.
Quoting calkevin77:
Looking at Dr. Masters' L&O anomaly image it appears that a major part of the E. Pacific was colder than normal for month of October. I know that mets have updated their forecasts to say an El Nino pattern will most likely not setup. I sure hope a La Nina is not on the horizon. I'm curious to know if there is a month-to-month animated version of that graphic available.


ask taz i think he that graph..
Quoting Arisilde:
Relax Global Warming is over...

Link
Quoting yoboi:

it stopped 16 yrs ago??

Same rehashed nonsense that has already been spewed and debunked. Maybe even multiple times?

The MetOffice dataset, commonly referred to as HadCRUT, has the slowest rate of warming of any of the temperature datasets. And even with that slowest rate, it is still showing warming, and following the same trend as before:


For scientific and skeptic minded individuals, the following read would be helpful to refresh some climate statistics:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/07/14/fifteen/
Good afternoon. I apologize if this was posted but the CPC released new 1 and 3 month outlooks today. The general temp. idea is cool to the north, warm to the south/west, which shouldn't come as a big surprise.



3 month trims the blue in the north and expands the red further, and it shows cooler than average conditions in FL:


Precip is equal chances for most, except dry on the West Coast and moist in some parts of the East/Southeast:

remember in the spring blog was filled with el nino this and that. that fell on its face
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. I apologize if this was posted but the CPC released new 1 and 3 month outlooks today. The general temp. idea is cool to the north, warm to the south/west, which shouldn't come as a big surprise.



3 month trims the blue in the north and expands the red further, and it shows cooler than average conditions in FL:


Precip is equal chances for most, except dry on the West Coast and moist in some parts of the East/Southeast:



Looks like the North Slope of Alaska is supposed to be especially warm this winter. I wonder if that will affect oil production in the area? Up there they depend upon solidly frozen ground in the winter in order to work in areas that would otherwise be waterlogged (or just water).
Anybody out there that denies global warming is, quite frankly, denying reality. The amount of evidence for GW significantly outnumbers the evidence against it...which isn't much besides an abundance of scientifically nonfactual statements produced by the uninformed.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody out there that denies global warming is, quite frankly, denying reality. The amount of evidence for GW significantly outnumbers the evidence against it...which isn't much besides an abundance of scientifically nonfactual statements produced by the uninformed.
As it has happened in the past,as it will also cool again in the future as it has in the past.
Quoting MrMixon:


Looks like the North Slope of Alaska is supposed to be especially warm this winter. I wonder if that will affect oil production in the area? Up there they depend upon solidly frozen ground in the winter in order to work in areas that would otherwise be waterlogged (or just water).


Even above normal along the north slope of Alaska during the winter, temps will be well below zero. It'll be dark up there 24/7 very shortly.
Phil Jones and his colleagues now admit they do not understand the role of ‘natural variability’.
The most depressing feature of this debate is that anyone who questions the alarmist, doomsday scenario will automatically be labelled a climate change ‘denier’, and accused of jeopardising the future of humanity.


Couldn't be...

nice little clump of moisture sw of the cape verdes say thats unusual to be there
Quoting overwash12:
As it has happened in the past,as it will also cool again in the future as it has in the past.


Yep.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody out there that denies global warming is, quite frankly, denying reality. The amount of evidence for GW significantly outnumbers the evidence against it...which isn't much besides an abundance of scientifically nonfactual statements produced by the uninformed.


The worst part is that we waste so much time trying to CONVINCE people it's happening when we could be working to fight the issue.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah I was referring to Central Florida, yes there is a big difference between here and down there. I've seen many days where we have highs in the 50's and 60's during the winter here but it still manages to crack the low to mid 70's down there. It's almost like a barrier. I personally like Central and North Florida better because we still have that tropical-like feel here much of the year but we still get a nice long change in season instead of the same warm weather pattern 90% of the year. I don't like real cold, that is northern cold with snow and cold cloudy days. But I don't like endless warmth either. 80's to me get old and boring if you have them too often. It's nice to have a colder season with 70's, 60's and even 50's for highs can be nice as long as its not all the time.


That barrier sits right across about Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda. It's not uncommon for it to get into the mid-upper 20's there during a cold winter. I've lived in Ft. Myers 3 years now and I've never seen it get below like 32-33. And the day time temps are much warmer here...

EDIT: For those who aren't familiar with the area. I'm one county to the south of Charlotte County (where Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte are)
Quoting Chucktown:


Even above normal along the north slope of Alaska during the winter, temps will be well below zero. It'll be dark up there 24/7 very shortly.


Ah, perhaps I was unclear. Certainly it will still be below freezing up there this winter. That's a given. But the length of time that the ice roads are stable may be shorter due to this predicted warm anomaly. That will almost certainly cut into the work season since oil development work up there is done mostly during the winter in order to protect the tundra and keep trucks from disappearing...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody out there that denies global warming is, quite frankly, denying reality. The amount of evidence for GW significantly outnumbers the evidence against it...which isn't much besides an abundance of scientifically nonfactual statements produced by the uninformed.


The debate is in the degree of variability, if you'll pardon the pun.

The AGW crew like to take the stance of "if you're not with us you're against us". I just believe that a lot of the most dire predictions and headline worthy analyses are waaay overdone. I also believe there are many climate scientists way too biased to have a preconceived preferred outcome for their "experiments".

I don't think this will be solved overnight; Which, honestly, makes the debate smolder on. You have your opinions and others have theirs.
Quoting wxgeek723:


The worst part is that we waste so much time trying to CONVINCE people it's happening when we could be working to fight the issue.


That's my biggest issue with that discussion also. Arguing about it accomplishes nothing except dividing the two sides even more. Plant a tree, recycle more, lobby for policy change, or there are any # of other things you can do... But staying on weather related stuff, looking forward to possibly a longer winter down here this year. Last winter was way too short.
Quoting hydrus:
Lets add the cost of two wars, natural disasters, government bailouts and deregulation.......I believe I,m going to puke.


That Jaron Unix fella had some interesting things to say about money in his (I think last) book "You are not a Gadget". I really recommend that book. Anyway, what he does have to say about money will broaden the game space in which to think about the problem of debt, depression, etc.
Take a look here in Barrow... Looks pretty frozen to me.

http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_ webcam

Link

Temperature right now is a balmy 7F.
Quoting Arisilde:
Relax Global Warming is over...

Link


Well, the first big red flag here is that you're linking to The Daily Fail, which is roughly equivalent to the Weekly World News here in the US.

Second, there is nothing secretive about the HadCRUT data release. They release data regularly and it is available online for anyone to look through.

Third, there is no indication that warming has abated (especially considering we've had our warmest decade on record and this year will likely break 1998's record without even having an El Nino event). Sure, if you're an idiot looking to draw eyeballs to your nonsensical tripe and ignore statistical and scientific principles, you can cherry-pick a point in any dataset and yell "See! No increase!". However, such blather hardly qualifies as scientific rigour and would be rejected so fast from any legitimate scientific journal it would probably catch on fire.

The article has been roundly and soundly debunked by real scientists, and is just another in a long line of journalistic travesties from The Daily Fail. If you want real scientific information, I suggest Nature or other respectable scientific publication, or the IPCC reports.
Quoting seminolesfan:


The debate is in the degree of variability, if you'll pardon the pun.

The AGW crew like to take the stance of "if you're not with us you're against us". I just believe that a lot of the most dire predictions and headline worthy analyses are waaay overdone. I also believe there are many climate scientists way too biased to have a preconceived preferred outcome for their "experiments".

I don't think this will be solved overnight; Which, honestly, makes the debate smolder on. You have your opinions and others have theirs.


How ya' been, Semenolesfan?
Quoting charlottefl:


That's my biggest issue with that discussion also. Arguing about it accomplishes nothing except dividing the two sides even more. Plant a tree, recycle more, lobby for policy change, or there are any # of other things you can do... But staying on weather related stuff, looking forward to possibly a longer winter down here this year. Last winter was way too short.


Wait there was a winter last year? For me it was just kind of four straight months of November and then it just went straight into May...in March.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Wait there was a winter last year? For me it was just kind of four straight months of November and then it just went straight into May...in March.


LOL. You know what I mean :P .... As much of a winter as we can expect here in FL, although much shorter than normal.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Same rehashed nonsense that has already been spewed and debunked. Maybe even multiple times?

The MetOffice dataset, commonly referred to as HadCRUT, has the slowest rate of warming of any of the temperature datasets. And even with that slowest rate, it is still showing warming, and following the same trend as before:


For scientific and skeptic minded individuals, the following read would be helpful to refresh some climate statistics:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/07/14/fifteen/
i don't know ScottL.. i'm Pretttty sure time began at peak El Nino, 1997/98... this inclusion of additional data from prior years by the same instrumentation looks like cherry picking to me ;)
Quoting Dakster:


How ya' been, Semenolesfan?

Not bad, Dumpster. You?
Quoting overwash12:
As it has happened in the past,as it will also cool again in the future as it has in the past.


The heating and cooling that happened in the past usually happened over geological time scales, and usually with drastic consequences on the life forms that existed at the time.

The heating we're seeing now is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison, and is already having global impacts.

Your statement is akin to not evacuating in the face of a Cat 5 hurricane because the weather will clear up again after the hurricane passes.


Quoting seminolesfan:


The debate is in the degree of variability, if you'll pardon the pun.

The AGW crew like to take the stance of "if you're not with us you're against us". I just believe that a lot of the most dire predictions and headline worthy analyses are waaay overdone. I also believe there are many climate scientists way too biased to have a preconceived preferred outcome for their "experiments".

I don't think this will be solved overnight; Which, honestly, makes the debate smolder on. You have your opinions and others have theirs.


The AGW crew



Beware Bloods and Crips..

Quoting seminolesfan:

Not bad, Dumpster. You?


Not too bad - nice weather down here. Glad to hear you are doing well.
Quoting seminolesfan:


The debate is in the degree of variability, if you'll pardon the pun.

The AGW crew like to take the stance of "if you're not with us you're against us". ....

if i could make one correction please, it is:
"if you are not with the insurmountable data and environmental signals, you are against them"
do you recognize the difference? there is a parallel argument about sourcing and how data is used, which is basically the result of policy institutions initiating reinterpretations of factual data. it is called spin, and yes, any agenda relies on this activity. however, when one eliminates the spin (or character flaws of messengers) from BOTH sides of the argument, hard facts remain.
-they are the insurmountable data and environmental signals.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The heating and cooling that happened in the past usually happened over geological time scales, and usually with drastic consequences on the life forms that existed at the time.

The heating we're seeing now is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison, and is already having global impacts.

Your statement is akin to not evacuating in the face of a Cat 5 hurricane because the weather will clear up again after the hurricane passes.


"The heating we're seeing now is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison".

So you have scientific proof that in no time before in the history of our planet that it has never warmed this fast over a blink of an eye timeframe?
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Same rehashed nonsense that has already been spewed and debunked. Maybe even multiple times?

The MetOffice dataset, commonly referred to as HadCRUT, has the slowest rate of warming of any of the temperature datasets. And even with that slowest rate, it is still showing warming, and following the same trend as before:


For scientific and skeptic minded individuals, the following read would be helpful to refresh some climate statistics:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/07/14/fifteen/


Extend your trend line through 2012 data set...
Quoting seminolesfan:


You have your opinions and others have theirs.


We are all entitled to our own "opinions", what we are not entitled to are our own "facts".

The vast majority of the worlds climate scientists agree that GW is real, and it is contributed to by the actions of man. To deny this truth is to deny future generations of a habitable planet. We must reduce our carbon footprint, to do otherwise is beyond foolish.
Quoting Arisilde:


Extend your trend line through 2012 data set...
are the valleys getting smaller, higher up? stop focusing on the peaks, this is the data. there were thousands of 'periods of cooling' within this data.. the line represents the beginning of the data to the end.. it IS through the 2012 set.
looking at the trend, but what do you honestly expect to happen over another decade?
not what Can you imagine, what Is to be expected by the data Alone?
and the thing is, this isn't even the whole story, it is probably the rosiest of raw data sets there is.
You really only have to look at that graph at the top of the page which shows the levels of Acrtic ice over the last few years and wheather or not you agree with the warming theories, its hard to argue against the fact that recorded ice levels are decreasing.
This is to some of us a great concern, to others its an anomoly or a blip in the global, warm, cold swings.
The fact is that by the time its either recognised that its serious or the blip disapears the effects of the events of ice loss etc will have been anything from disturbing to catostrphic!
Quoting seminolesfan:
The debate is in the degree of variability, if you'll pardon the pun.


Because climate variability is not climate change, as such, the debate in climate science wouldn't be over variability. Variability is the noise on top of the trend. The trend is climatic, the variability is weather, or a mix of some weather and some short term "oscillations."

Climate variability is a topic for much scientific research right now, but for an entirely different reason. It's the climate variability that we generally feel... it's El Nino, it's periods of hyper-active tropics, it's several year long droughts.

Quoting seminolesfan:

I just believe that a lot of the most dire predictions and headline worthy analyses are waaay overdone.


Which predictions? Be specific. So far, the majority of predictions made by mainstream climate scientists and the IPCC are being followed closely or exceeded.
Quoting Arisilde:


Extend your trend line through 2012 data set...
Quoting Minnemike:
are the valleys getting smaller, higher up? stop focusing on the peaks, this is the data. there were thousands of 'periods of cooling' within this data.. the line represents the beginning of the data to the end.. it IS through the 2012 set.
looking at the trend, but what do you honestly expect to happen over another decade?
not what Can you imagine, what Is to be expected by the data Alone?
and the thing is, this isn't even the whole story, it is probably the rosiest of raw data sets there is.


I think this data was updated earlier this year or in late 2011. Either way, 1 year is weather, not climate. Generally, 15+ years are needed to describe climate and estimate trends. Typically defintions of climate are ~30yrs. Blips on monthly timescales are going to have a hard time changing datasets with around 360 months...
Quoting jackzig:


We are all entitled to our own "opinions", what we are not entitled to are our own "facts".

The vast majority of the worlds climate scientists agree that GW is real, and it is contributed to by the actions of man. To deny this truth is to deny future generations of a habitable planet. We must reduce our carbon footprint, to do otherwise is beyond foolish.


As true now as it was twenty years ago.
Quoting luvtogolf:


"The heating we're seeing now is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison".

So you have scientific proof that in no time before in the history of our planet that it has never warmed this fast over a blink of an eye timeframe?


That is a loaded question... It does not matter.

Climate warms/cools/changes in response to forcings that make it change. If there were forcings in the past that were stronger and faster than today's anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, then climate would have changed faster. Climate doesn't care if it's GHGs, volcanoes, or the sun's output quadrupling.

Today's changes are a mere blip on geologic timescales, outpacing the vast majority of known changes, particularly those in the time frame of humans existing on earth. Depending on the study, these changes could be the fastest in 100s or the fastest in 1000s of years.
Quoting jackzig:


We are all entitled to our own "opinions", what we are not entitled to are our own "facts".

The vast majority of the worlds climate scientists agree that GW is real, and it is contributed to by the actions of man. To deny this truth is to deny future generations of a habitable planet. We must reduce our carbon footprint, to do otherwise is beyond foolish.


Tell that to BP who just earned $5.5 billion for the third quarter. That means they will make over $20 billion for 2012. That is absurd. This is why they don't mind paying these upcoming fines. Do you really think they will reduce their carbon footprint and give up this amount of dough? If there is ever a carbon tax, they will just pay it, no matter what the amount is.
it seems to be about half trolls on this page right now.
Quoting wxgeek723:


The worst part is that we waste so much time trying to CONVINCE people it's happening when we could be working to fight the issue.


Some people will never be convinced. Spend your engery doing the things you can control. Over time when a lot of people do that, a lot of change happens and you don't have to waste your precious energy arguing with a brick wall.
Quoting yoboi:



how much co2 do you send into the atmosphere??
Quoting yoboi:



how much co2 do you send into the atmosphere??
Quoting yoboi:



how much co2 do you send into the atmosphere??

If you are interested in seeing how much CO2 is emitted by a typical person and how that changes with different changes in activity, I might suggest searching for a carbon footprint calculator.

A simple google search yielded:
http://www.nature.org/greenliving/carboncalculato r/index.htm
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/ind -calculator.html
You know I was going to post an item about my local weather and after reading through the the blog,I don't think I will..

It's turned to a whipping post in here for/against climate..
I realize it's ok as to the rules..
But day in,day out?..24/7..
There's gotta be a better way or civil forum to take it to.. :(
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The heating and cooling that happened in the past usually happened over geological time scales, and usually with drastic consequences on the life forms that existed at the time.

The heating we're seeing now is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison, and is already having global impacts.

Your statement is akin to not evacuating in the face of a Cat 5 hurricane because the weather will clear up again after the hurricane passes.
No,I have to disagree. However I do appreciate the cat 5 analogy,that was classic! lol
Why is it cold in FL now??? 58 in Gainesville at 5PM????
Quoting pcola57:
You know I was going to post an item about my local weather and after reading through the the blog,I don't think I will..

It's turned to a whipping post in here for/against climate..
I realize it's ok as to the rules..
But day in,day out?..24/7..
There's gotta be a better way or civil forum to take it to.. :(


I honestly thinks the Doc/Admin enjoy the bickering..look how fast another climate change blog came up..

Welcome to the winter blogs..
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Why is it cold in FL now??? 58 in Gainesville at 5PM????
very thick stratus today. There was limited time for heating
Quoting ScottLincoln:

If you are interested in seeing how much CO2 is emitted by a typical person and how that changes with different changes in activity, I might suggest searching for a carbon footprint calculator.

A simple google search yielded:
http://www.nature.org/greenliving/carboncalculato r/index.htm
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/ind -calculator.html


thanks....
Quoting ncstorm:


I honestly thinks the Doc/Admin enjoy the bickering..look how fast another climate change blog came up..

Welcome to the winter blogs..


I know,it happens every year..and climate is very important..no matter where you stand on the issue..
But it's not constructive discussion..leads nowhere and causes enemies here..
Childish..why not take it to their own blogs for a further dissertation???
Quoting pcola57:
You know I was going to post an item about my local weather and after reading through the the blog,I don't think I will..

It's turned to a whipping post in here for/against climate..
I realize it's ok as to the rules..
But day in,day out?..24/7..
There's gotta be a better way or civil forum to take it to.. :(


Please do post your local weather item. It will only improve today's blog...

I admit I kind of enjoy the climate change debates here (sometimes). But, today's debate is a little weak... more DATA people, show us more DATA!




It's been warm in Colorado...
BBL
Quoting pcola57:


I know,it happens every year..and climate is very important..no matter where you stand on the issue..
But it's not constructive discussion..leads nowhere and causes enemies here..
Childish..why not take it to their own blogs for a further dissertation???


I try to stay away from it..it brings out some ugly posts on here from bloggers..
Ever read the book "Lord of the Flies" by William Golding? My favorite all-time book. It says so much about "US" and how we "CAN" become
Since I can't read anything but GW on here, can someone let me know about the storm that was supposed to be developing off the coast of NC?
I guess my point is how we can become when things don't go our why. ie: the people in the northeast that have attacked the utility workers that are doing there best to get power back on. I live in south Florida and have seen the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde when things don't go to our liking during hurricanes. It's a shame, but I guess we aren't as civilized as we would like to think we are.
GW time so soon? Oh well...see ya in March when the chase season starts.

Keep Calm and Carry On!
Drought in Texas

"A Central Texas river authority will seek an emergency order that could cut off irrigation water from rice farmers for the second year in a row if drought conditions worsen."

This is for the Colorado River. The article needs a better editor though. It contradicts itself on whether the emergency order is to withhold or release water, but bottom line is that drought is still here.
Quoting NEWilmNCTP:
Since I can't read anything but GW on here, can someone let me know about the storm that was supposed to be developing off the coast of NC?


Dr. Masters previous blog covered it. HERE'S A LINK. Sounds like it's supposed to bring some flooding to eastern NC before heading off to sea...



The 5-day precip map shows the worst of it is expected to stay offshore.
Quoting seminolesfan:


The debate is in the degree of variability, if you'll pardon the pun.

The AGW crew like to take the stance of "if you're not with us you're against us". I just believe that a lot of the most dire predictions and headline worthy analyses are waaay overdone. I also believe there are many climate scientists way too biased to have a preconceived preferred outcome for their "experiments".

I don't think this will be solved overnight; Which, honestly, makes the debate smolder on. You have your opinions and others have theirs.
Here's where the real debate is:

1. To what extent are we influencing our climate? (i.e. how much warming are we responsible for? how much is natural variability?)

2. Future projections for a warmer world. (i.e. what are the future consequences of continued warming and how much more will we warm?)

3. What are the best solutions to mitigate this warming?

Debates over whether or not we are warming or whether or not we are responsible only continue as a result of ignorance and stupidity.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody out there that denies global warming is, quite frankly, denying reality. The amount of evidence for GW significantly outnumbers the evidence against it...which isn't much besides an abundance of scientifically nonfactual statements produced by the uninformed.
good post TA
Quoting wxgeek723:


The worst part is that we waste so much time trying to CONVINCE people it's happening when we could be working to fight the issue.
Exactly. Trying to convince those in denial is a waste of time.
71 Minnemike: I don't know ScottL... I'm pretttty sure time began at peak El Nino, 1997/98...

Thank goodness for that. And here I'd been needlessly feelin' pret darn ancient what with mistakenly believin' I warn't no teenager no more.
Here are the links to the Tropical Cyclone Reports the National Hurricane Center has produced so far in case somebody wanted to view them. Not much has been changed, and most of the storms were relatively boring. I'll make more of mine if I can ever get time from school. I swear all the teachers get together and schedule tests, several-page essays, and projects and make them due at the same time.

Atlantic
Quoting Allan012:


Pffft... GW is just bogus science used for monetary grants...
unsuccessful troll is unsuccessful :)
This was in the Arctic sea ice monthly review but took a look back a little farther in the summer.



Figure 5. This image provides a snapshot of how ocean depth in the Arctic influences sea ice extent. Sea ice cover for August 28, 2012 is shown in semi-transparent white; ocean depths are indicated in blues, with deeper blues indicating greater depth. Sea ice data are from the Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE), which provides more accurate ice edge position.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center courtesy Jamie Morison/Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington

Research by our colleagues Jamie Morison at the University of Washington Seattle and NASA scientist Son Nghiem suggests that bathymetry (sea floor topography) plays an important role in Arctic sea ice formation and extent by controlling the distribution and mixing of warm and cold waters. At its seasonal minimum extent, the ice edge mainly corresponds to the deep-water/shallow-water boundary (approximately 500-meter depth), suggesting that the ocean floor exerts a dominant control on the ice edge position. However, in some cases, ice survives in the shallower continental shelf regions due to water circulation patterns. For example, the shelf area of the East Greenland Sea is almost always covered with sea ice because the southward-flowing cold Arctic surface water helps to limit melt.

In contrast, ice disappears in shallow areas like the Barents and Chukchi seas that are subject to warm ocean waters and river runoff. River runoff and ice melting have also contributed to changes in the amount and distribution of fresh water in the Arctic.
Quoting TomTaylor:
unsuccessful troll is unsuccessful :)


Whatever floats your boat...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I guess my point is how we can become when things don't go our why. ie: the people in the northeast that have attacked the utility workers that are doing there best to get power back on. I live in south Florida and have seen the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde when things don't go to our liking during hurricanes. It's a shame, but I guess we aren't as civilized as we would like to think we are.

I'll go out on a limb and suggest that people are more civilized when they are happier. There's an interesting TED talk by Dan Gilbert about how we judge what makes us happy Link. The speaker points out that we tend to overestimate the effect that future events will have on our happiness. For instance, paraplegics surprisingly appear to be just as happy as lottery winners. I invite everyone to watch the video.

From this video, the moral of the story to me is that as climate change continues to narrow the options available to us, we should be just a bit braver when facing the future than we tend to be. We should not be quite as afraid of the change being forced on us as it seems we are--in the speaker's words--not as cowardly.
...
Quoting Allan012:


Whatever floats your boat...

Tom's in California, he doesn't have a boat.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here are the links to the Tropical Cyclone Reports the National Hurricane Center has produced so far in case somebody wanted to view them. Not much has been changed, and most of the storms were relatively boring. I'll make more of mine if I can ever get time from school. I swear all the teachers get together and schedule tests, several-page essays, and projects and make them due at the same time.

Atlantic

Don't forget that they all get together to assign long homework assignments due the next day. I'm so glad that we have Thanksgiving break coming up because we need one.
Quoting ncstorm:


I honestly thinks the Doc/Admin enjoy the bickering..look how fast another climate change blog came up..

Welcome to the winter blogs..


Read the first sentence in Dr. Master's blog above.
"October 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest October on record, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today.
The topic came up because of the news released today.
I doubt Dr. Masters enjoys having serious science being constantly discarded and reviled by deniers every day. He's reporting facts. Today new facts came out.

Why do so many people (this isn't aimed at you ncstorm) assume there's some sort of agenda here besides reporting the facts and our understanding of future models? I really don't understand why the worst trolls here bother to come onto this blog when they're obviously disturbed by the facts day in and day out, unless they're just that pathetically in need of negative attention (or they work for big oil/coal PR firms).

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Why do so many people (this isn't aimed at you ncstorm) assume there's some sort of agenda here besides reporting the facts and our understanding of future models? I really don't understand why the worst trolls here bother to come onto this blog when they're obviously disturbed by the facts day in and day out, unless they're just that pathetically in need of negative attention (or they work for big oil/coal PR firms).
Could be that. Or they're kids bored with playing Call of Duty. Or they haven't the intellectual curiosity to understand the science and contribute to the conversation, so they sit on the sidelines and toss hand grenades onto the field. Or they're blinded by ideology, and incapable of realizing as much. Or they're a part of the small and vocal group of Americans sadly in denial of not just climate science but all science. And so on...

Anyway, the long-term, month to month story of Arctic ice area:

SIA

FWIW, 2012 Arctic sea ice area is currently 450,000 square kilometers less than it was on this date in either 2011 or 2007, previous recordholders. 153 daily records have been set so far this year.
Moving on to ENSO. This had gone as I expected, warm neutral with a few El Nino conditions at time. Expecting neutral through the winter. Maybe into spring too.

Quoting ncstorm:


I honestly thinks the Doc/Admin enjoy the bickering..look how fast another climate change blog came up..

Welcome to the winter blogs..


Hey, that is very disrespectful to Dr. Jeff Masters.

A Climate Change blog? All it does is show the October temperature anomalies for the globe. He writes one for every month, in case you haven't noticed, but I think you have.

For someone who is a regular of Dr. Jeff Masters' blog you certainly don't pay him the respect he deserves.

If you hate Climate Change arguing so much I think you would be better off just stepping aside and ignoring the discussion instead of posting a needless, disrespectful comment which only adds gasoline to the fire you, yourself, want extinguished.
Quoting yonzabam:


Well off topic, but it's nothing to do with whoever happens to be your incumbent president.

The global economic recession, soon to be a depression far worse than the 30s, is due to a number of factors. But the main factor is debt. I don't know what % of tax revenue goes towards paying just the interest on the $16 trillion US national debt, but it's a major factor weighing down the economy. And it all started with Reagan almost tripling the debt from $1 trillion to just under $3 trillion in his 8 years in office. Can't blame Obama for that.

Other factors are state, municipal and personal debt, the collapse in property prices, immigration, outsourcing of manufacturing industry to the east, and an increasingly aged and unproductive population creating huge unfunded pensions and Medicaid liabilities. In fact, you might call it a 'perfect storm'.

Still want to blame Obama?



What does what Reagan did have anything to do with what Obama has done now? Stop attempting to excuse a candidate's failures due to political preference. That's the problem in the first place. We just have a large amount of extremists on both sides that point the finger at the other side and say it's all his/her fault when that individual or that party in power has a fault. However, instead of deciding to make a balanced wise solution, people decided that throwing decision making to the opposite spectrum must be done in order to fix things. Conservatives never take blame or seem to remember how bad an unregulated economy can be as businesses run on ego trips while workers are abused and are treated as slaves.
Now you have left side looking at how conservative extremes failed, and decide that the left extreme can fix things, but now they fail to take the blame for their own failures or seem to even acknowledge them. It doesn't matter which side, its extremism and its the cycle that continues until division between views eventually destroys a nation. Of course, in reality its far more complex and diverse than that, but you should get my point.

Its ironic because there is a growing number of people claiming to be moderate or independent. Yet many political scientists have found this movement has no grounding, because many of these same individuals have very partisan, divisive views when actually questioned where they stand. The amount of people with balanced views always seems to remain small. I don't know why. I hope that might change someday, and it certainly can, but people have to believe they can, and live it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody out there that denies global warming is, quite frankly, denying reality. The amount of evidence for GW significantly outnumbers the evidence against it...which isn't much besides an abundance of scientifically nonfactual statements produced by the uninformed.


In all honesty, though, this is a pretty common phenomenon with many more things in life than climate change. At one time when I was younger, I used to be very skeptical of it, and did not believe it, because of individuals like Al Gore who seemed to use it as political movement rather than a motive of scientific education. Furthermore, the media began to simultaneously freak about it for a time. I then concluded it must be fabricated, and they just have maybe one or two scientists who backed it but in reality didn't have enough research.

However, being a meteorology enthusiast, at some point I began to explore the topic for myself, and I have done plenty of research. The more research I've done tells me there has to be climate change. There is too much evidence for it, and too little against it. There is nothing wrong with healthy skepticism. However, the problem is most people don't want to actually do the research, and even if they do, they go in with an attitude against the evidence from the start therefore they label all of it as a hoax, regardless of how much compiled evidence exists.
SOI average for OCT.. 2.4

Very close to last month's average.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I guess my point is how we can become when things don't go our why. ie: the people in the northeast that have attacked the utility workers that are doing there best to get power back on. I live in south Florida and have seen the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde when things don't go to our liking during hurricanes. It's a shame, but I guess we aren't as civilized as we would like to think we are.


That was an isolated case. Most of the people have been
extremely nice at least here in Jersey.
Quoting Skyepony:


Skye,here is the Mid-November update of the models.

136. etxwx
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I guess my point is how we can become when things don't go our why. ie: the people in the northeast that have attacked the utility workers that are doing there best to get power back on. I live in south Florida and have seen the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde when things don't go to our liking during hurricanes. It's a shame, but I guess we aren't as civilized as we would like to think we are.


I googled to read the news reports about utility workers being attacked because I've seen this referenced elsewhere and was curious about it. The only references I could find reported one worker from Florida being brutally punched in the face outside a restaurant ...his friend was also injured in coming to his rescue. They have arrested the attacker.
While this was certainly a vicious and brutal act, and fortunately they caught the idiot who punched the poor guy, it's not clear the victim was working or identified as a utility worker before the attack. The guy was badly hurt and I don't minimize that, but I'm not sure it had anything to do with his being a utility worker.

I also googled "sandy kindness and relief efforts" and got a lot of different examples, small and large, from folks donating food and medical care to Katrina survivors sending donations to celebs donating cash and more - quite a range. And, of course, there's Portlight. Are humans capable of being vicious? Absolutely. But they also are capable of pulling together and helping one another in incredibly stressful situations.
Quoting charlottefl:


That barrier sits right across about Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda. It's not uncommon for it to get into the mid-upper 20's there during a cold winter. I've lived in Ft. Myers 3 years now and I've never seen it get below like 32-33. And the day time temps are much warmer here...

EDIT: For those who aren't familiar with the area. I'm one county to the south of Charlotte County (where Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte are)


Yeah I've noticed that too even though I do not live there. I always keep track of temps across the area during such events. It does appear there is a "barrier" in that region. It's strange to think there would be such drastic change over such a short distance given similar soil composition and virtually the same flat elevation.
Quoting etxwx:


I googled to read the news reports about utility workers being attacked because I've seen this referenced elsewhere and was curious about it. The only references I could find reported one worker from Florida being brutally punched in the face outside a restaurant ...his friend was also injured in coming to his rescue. They have arrested the attacker.
While this was certainly a vicious and brutal act, and fortunately they caught the idiot who punched the poor guy, it's not clear the victim was working or identified as a utility worker before the attack. The guy was badly hurt and I don't minimize that, but I'm not sure it had anything to do with his being a utility worker.

I also googled "sandy kindness and relief efforts" and got a lot of different examples, small and large, from folks donating food and medical care to Katrina survivors sending donations to celebs donating cash and more - quite a range. And, of course, there's Portlight. Are humans capable of being vicious? Absolutely. But they also are capable of pulling together and helping one another in incredibly stressful situations.


What's interesting about human nature, is that it's the long term periods of ease and "good times" that breed the most wickedness in man, whereas in times of trouble, while we never wish them, bring out the best in most people.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Skye,here is the Mid-November update of the models.



Thanks~ The NASA site I get them off of many times has the month before..but it's useful when you can throw in observed a month later & see which models got it. With yours added it stands out even better. The newer ones are trending lower & flatter like the ones that were close the month before.
Quoting Skyepony:


Thanks~ The NASA site I get them off of many times has the month before..but it's useful when you can throw in observed a month later & see which models got it. With yours added it stands out even better. The newer ones are trending lower & flatter like the ones that were close the month before.


Is interesting that the CFSv2 model has that big swing down and up and strays from the consensus.
"The great source of both the misery and disorders of human life, seems to arise from over-rating the difference between one permanent situation and another. Avarice over-rates the difference between poverty and riches: ambition, that between a private and a public station: vain-glory, that between obscurity and extensive reputation. The person under the influence of any of those extravagant passions, is not only miserable in his actual situation, but is often disposed to disturb the peace of society, in order to arrive at that which he so foolishly admires. The slightest observation, however, might satisfy him, that, in all the ordinary situations of human life, a well-disposed mind may be equally calm, equally cheerful, and equally contented. Some of those situations may, no doubt, deserve to be preferred to others: but none of them can deserve to be pursued with that passionate ardour which drives us to violate the rules either of prudence or of justice; or to corrupt the future tranquillity of our minds, either by shame from the remembrance of our own folly, or by remorse from the horror of our own injustice.”
― Adam Smith, The Theory of Moral Sentiments
*groan* Maxwell's teapot! Not AGW _again?!_
I enjoy lurking here but I do wish troll-feeding wasn't such a popular pastime. Just point 'em at the relevant bits of http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php or http://grist.org/series/skeptics/ or the relevant RealClimate piece.

Incidentally my favourite explanation about what you can say about climate, statistically, from record-breaking extreme weather events: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/201 1/11/on-record-breaking-extremes/
Quoting SteveDa1:


Hey, that is very disrespectful to Dr. Jeff Masters.

A Climate Change blog? All it does is show the October temperature anomalies for the globe. He writes one for every month, in case you haven't noticed, but I think you have.

For someone who is a regular of Dr. Jeff Masters' blog you certainly don't pay him the respect he deserves.

If you hate Climate Change arguing so much I think you would be better off just stepping aside and ignoring the discussion instead of posting a needless, disrespectful comment which only adds gasoline to the fire you, yourself, want extinguished.


how is my post disrespectful?..the last blog stayed up how long?..what is mostly in the contents of those so called temperature/climate change/AGW blogs..ARGUMENTS AND NO COMPROMISE!! lets even use some metrics here..count the blogs with just solely content of tropical weather vs climate change and then build an algorithm showing posts complaining about climate change in each of the blogs..guess which topic of blog will come out on top with complaints about AGW/climate change bloggers..its pretty clear who is being disrespectful BUT yet WU has seen an increase in the climate change blogs even adding a dynamite stick rule about discussing politics..I only call it like I see it..

still raining here in NC..looks to stick around for a while..
A friend just sent this to me - Sandy NWS assessment team disbands.

Link

"We should have preferences that lead us into one future over another, but when those preferences drive us too hard and too fast because we have overrated the difference between these futures, we are at risk. When our ambition is bounded it leads us to work joyfully. When our ambition is unbounded, it leads us to lie, to cheat, to steal, to hurt others, to sacrifice things of real value. When our fears are bounded, we're prudent, we're cautious, we're thoughtful. When our fears are unbounded and overblown, we're reckless and we're cowardly.

"The lesson I want to leave you with from these data is that our longings and our worries are both to some degree overblown because we have within us the capacity to manufacture the very commodity we are constantly chasing when we choose experience."

Dan Gilbert
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Read the first sentence in Dr. Master's blog above.
"October 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest October on record, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today.
The topic came up because of the news released today.
I doubt Dr. Masters enjoys having serious science being constantly discarded and reviled by deniers every day. He's reporting facts. Today new facts came out.

Why do so many people (this isn't aimed at you ncstorm) assume there's some sort of agenda here besides reporting the facts and our understanding of future models? I really don't understand why the worst trolls here bother to come onto this blog when they're obviously disturbed by the facts day in and day out, unless they're just that pathetically in need of negative attention (or they work for big oil/coal PR firms).



I honestly dont have a problem with the blog topic..its the bloggers who constantly argue about the topic and take it to a whole 'nother level (not speaking of you).. we may be outnumber here but there are bloggers like myself who just get sick of it all..I rather see the blog go at a snails pace than to come in here and see the same bloggers along with their followers call someone ignorant or stupid on account of their belief or reasoning and its allowed..I even emailed Dr. Masters himself about the usage of those words and got ZIP..sounds like to me its not a big thing here to put people down..




High pressure over New England will maintain a cool air wedge over our region. This stagnant weather pattern will allow low clouds and patchy fog to redevelop over most of the region overnight. Isolated showers will remain possible in coastal locations. Lows will generally fall into the 40s inland, ranging to 50 to 55 at the coast and for locations in north central Florida. On the coastal waters, small craft advisory conditions will spread into the nearshore waters as north to northeasterly winds increase. Rough surf will create a high risk for rip currents at area beaches. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible as a coastal trough develops.

30's and 40's in my area tonight..



Current Newport/Morehead,NC radar



Quoting Chucktown:
A friend just sent this to me - Sandy NWS assessment team disbands.

Link


Does that say Sandy's total damages will be over 100 billion? Wow.
So I've posted a link to Dan Gilbert's TED talk and given quotes of the closing remarks from it. Gilbert quotes Adam Smith and makes his own statement. So what does this have to do with climate change/global warming?

The unpleasant truth is that we cannot continue to add CO2 to the atmosphere as we have been doing. We have the power to deny our situation--and no one can take that power of denial from us no matter how one argues--but when we deny we are most likely motivated by an overly dramatic fear of the consequence.

If we live in denial, we are making a choice between an imaginary future versus a real future, but even if both futures were equally possible what Dan Gilbert points out (and Adam Smith) is that we tend to exaggerate the difference in our happiness in one future versus the other. The irrational fear of what the far more likely future will bring leads us to make bad decisions, and history will describe those decisions as cowardly.
GFS 18Z we may see a Cold Thanksgiving in FL!:)
154. yoboi
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Read the first sentence in Dr. Master's blog above.
"October 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest October on record, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today.
The topic came up because of the news released today.
I doubt Dr. Masters enjoys having serious science being constantly discarded and reviled by deniers every day. He's reporting facts. Today new facts came out.

Why do so many people (this isn't aimed at you ncstorm) assume there's some sort of agenda here besides reporting the facts and our understanding of future models? I really don't understand why the worst trolls here bother to come onto this blog when they're obviously disturbed by the facts day in and day out, unless they're just that pathetically in need of negative attention (or they work for big oil/coal PR firms).



and every time you go to the gas pump you support big oil companies.....we do have a choice to use or not use there product...
155. txjac
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Well, the first big red flag here is that you're linking to The Daily Fail, which is roughly equivalent to the Weekly World News here in the US.

Second, there is nothing secretive about the HadCRUT data release. They release data regularly and it is available online for anyone to look through.

Third, there is no indication that warming has abated (especially considering we've had our warmest decade on record and this year will likely break 1998's record without even having an El Nino event). Sure, if you're an idiot looking to draw eyeballs to your nonsensical tripe and ignore statistical and scientific principles, you can cherry-pick a point in any dataset and yell "See! No increase!". However, such blather hardly qualifies as scientific rigour and would be rejected so fast from any legitimate scientific journal it would probably catch on fire.

The article has been roundly and soundly debunked by real scientists, and is just another in a long line of journalistic travesties from The Daily Fail. If you want real scientific information, I suggest Nature or other respectable scientific publication, or the IPCC reports.


The Daily Mail doesnt get everything wrong ...first place that I heard about Iran shooting at our drone, it was also the first place that I read about things being done (had some wine so I cant remember what?) about slowing or reversing AGW. I actually emailed it to Nea to ask about it and he said he had heard about it too ...and not just the Daily Mail.

People have to read all sides of issues and not just rely on the side that talks about the way that they feel.
So instead of posting more graphs of the same data and repeating the same litany of scientific facts to try to persuade people wavering between denial and reality, I appeal to our sense of self respect.

Adam Smith pointed out the problem almost 250 years ago. Dan Gilbert describes the issue in light of recent research on human behavior. We are largely ignorant of the trap of overestimating the difference between one circumstance and another. We shrink back in fear and inaction. Politicians play to the mood of fear and passivity. And we lose.
Quoting luvtogolf:


"The heating we're seeing now is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison".

So you have scientific proof that in no time before in the history of our planet that it has never warmed this fast over a blink of an eye timeframe?


I never said the Earth's climate has never rapidly changed. When it does (as a result of an asteroid impact, supervolcanoe eruptions, etc.), it is usually followed by an ELE (Extinction Level Event). If conditions change faster than life can adapt, it dies.

Look up paleoclimate or paleoclimatology. There's quite a bit of information on this subject.

Looks like another argument blog. Oh well. Ill be back in a few days when the next blog is posted. But I'll leave you with this.


Supercell storm to strike at weekend

A POTENTIALLY devastating form of thunderstorm, which can create tornadoes, threatens northern NSW on the weekend.

"Supercell thunderstorms are likely to produce severe weather," Tom Saunders, Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Channel said this morning.

"Supercell thunderstorms are likely across north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland this weekend and have the potential to cause flash flooding, damaging winds and large hail,'' Mr Saunders said.

Supercells are the most dangerous type of storm and develop where wind shear is present through a very unstable atmosphere.

"The wind shear leads to rotation within the storm and a longer lifespan.

"Supercells often cause very heavy rain and flash flooding, large hail, damaging winds gusts and occasionally tornadoes.
The main inhibitors for storm development will be cloud through the morning, which prevents air rising from the surface and onshore winds which keep temperatures down and reduce instability.

The more intense thunderstorms this weekend have the potential to cause around 50mm of rain but most of north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland should receive at least 20mm.''

He said the chance of severe storms will reduce by Monday as the trough moves offshore.

For more info. Like this page on Facebook.
Quoting txjac:


The Daily Mail doesnt get everything wrong ...first place that I heard about Iran shooting at our drone, it was also the first place that I read about things being done (had some wine so I cant remember what?) about slowing or reversing AGW. I actually emailed it to Nea to ask about it and he said he had heard about it too ...and not just the Daily Mail.

People have to read all sides of issues and not just rely on the side that talks about the way that they feel.


Here is the blog from UK Met about that daily mail article. Link It isn't very kind.
Quoting ncstorm:


how is my post disrespectful?..the last blog stayed up how long?..what is mostly in the contents of those so called temperature/climate change/AGW blogs..ARGUMENTS AND NO COMPROMISE!! lets even use some metrics here..count the blogs with just solely content of tropical weather vs climate change and then build an algorithm showing posts complaining about climate change in each of the blogs..guess which topic of blog will come out on top with complaints about AGW/climate change bloggers..its pretty clear who is being disrespectful BUT yet WU has seen an increase in the climate change blogs even adding a dynamite stick rule about discussing politics..I only call it like I see it..

still raining here in NC..looks to stick around for a while..


Alright, I have a bone to pick here.

Almost every time I see that the topic even remotely veers toward global climate change, you are on here complaining about it. Very frequently, of late, you have been questioning Doctor Master's integrity in posting his blogs, as you have today. You constantly howl at and hound people who point out the facts about climate, calling them alarmists and questioning their good faith, and complaining about their "tone" while never once addressing the people who childishly pester and whine like the guy upthread who asked the same irrelevant question three times just to get a rise out of people - because, as it turns out, they have leanings similar to you.

This isn't just a habit of yours about global climate change. During Hurricane Sandy, you constantly claimed that the people posting about what the NHC had predicted or who were asking about how bad it is were "alarmists" and that it wouldn't be as bad as predicted, and you complained about the "hype." You were one of only a handful doing that, and you were the biggest "name." As it turned out - shocker of shockers - the scientists were right and it was as bad as they said it would be, or worse, and lo and behold, over a hundred Americans died along with the death toll in the Caribbean that had already been racked up. In the following days you never apologized for your mistreatment of the people conveying or making accurate predictions, you never criticized the people making the same foolish statements as you did, and you've never been held to account for it.

So now, here you are in an analogous situation, questioning the good faith of people accurately conveying the scientific consensus on climate change, questioning the good faith of the person who runs the site, and once again getting away with it. It's appalling. I don't post often; I prefer to watch and listen and learn as I have for the last seven years. But I can't stand this.
Good weather in general for PR on Friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 PM AST THU NOV 15 2012

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI TONIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR HAS SHOWN PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS EMBEDDED ON THE TRADES...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED.
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AREA
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR BETWEEN
16/17-21Z. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

MARINE UPDATE...BUOYS 41044 ABOUT 500 NM NORTHEAST OF PR MEASURED
A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 8-10 FEET AT 11 SECONDS. USING THE SWELL DECAY
CALCULATOR...SEAS OF 6-7 FEET WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AMZ710 UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
162. txjac
Quoting Naga5000:


Here is the blog from UK Met about that daily mail article. Link It isn't very kind.


I'm not totally defending the Daily Mail ..its a mixture of good, true info and some that is sensationalist ...one just has to read it all in order to hear both sides and make a decision
Quoting AussieStorm:
Looks like another argument blog. Oh well. Ill be back in a few days when the next blog is posted. But I'll leave you with this.


Supercell storm to strike at weekend

A POTENTIALLY devastating form of thunderstorm, which can create tornadoes, threatens northern NSW on the weekend.

"Supercell thunderstorms are likely to produce severe weather," Tom Saunders, Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Channel said this morning.

"Supercell thunderstorms are likely across north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland this weekend and have the potential to cause flash flooding, damaging winds and large hail,'' Mr Saunders said.

Supercells are the most dangerous type of storm and develop where wind shear is present through a very unstable atmosphere.

"The wind shear leads to rotation within the storm and a longer lifespan.

"Supercells often cause very heavy rain and flash flooding, large hail, damaging winds gusts and occasionally tornadoes.
The main inhibitors for storm development will be cloud through the morning, which prevents air rising from the surface and onshore winds which keep temperatures down and reduce instability.

The more intense thunderstorms this weekend have the potential to cause around 50mm of rain but most of north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland should receive at least 20mm.''

He said the chance of severe storms will reduce by Monday as the trough moves offshore.

For more info. Like this page on Facebook.


'Tis the season though, right?

November is the Southern Hemisphere equivalent to May, anyway.
Quoting txjac:


I'm not totally defending the Daily Mail ..its a mixture of good, true info and some that is sensationaist ...one just has to read it all in order to hear both sides and make a decision


Never said you were defending or not. I was just posting the response by the Met office to that actual article basically debunking David Rose's article. This is one case where The Daily Mail misinformed and or left out information.
Quoting overwash12:
No,I have to disagree. However I do appreciate the cat 5 analogy,that was classic! lol


Disagree with what?

Don't take my word for it. Look it up. Paleoclimate studies show that regular warming and cooling intervals happen as a result of orbital variations and take thousands of years.

The other, sudden, rapid changes are a result of a cataclysmic event or sudden rapid feedbacks that usually result in some form of ELE since life can't adapt fast enough to deal with the climate shifts.

Feel free to disagree of course, but I think I stick with the scientific studies.
Rules of The Road..
Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
Stay on topic.
No monomania.
No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.
Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.
No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.
No spamming.
No spamming.
Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.
Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

Tips

Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.
Quoting pcola57:
Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
Stay on topic.
No monomania.
No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.
Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.
No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.
No spamming.
No spamming.
Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.
Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

Tips

Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.

The admins need to take control of this place. They have to hand down some bans. Not perma-bans, but 24-48 ones, just to send a message that the debates here need to be more civilized. And that goes for both the supporters and deniers of AGW, because some members of both sides are completely disrespectful. I like the debates, and I think they should continue, but they need to be toned down a little and the only way that happens is if admin takes control.
Quoting Allan012:


Pffft... GW is just bogus science used for monetary grants...


Of course it is. Just like those weather making machines the insurance industry is using to hammer the east coast with hurricanes so they can raise their rates and make billions! MAUAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Oh darn, my tinfoil hat came loose again! Their mind control beams are getting in! Quick, I must go bath in juice of fresh Guatamalen Papaya to rejuvenate my brain cells from the eletromagnetic damage!

Sssssshhhhhhh! Did you hear that? I think I have a radio in my fingernail! Or it could be aliens. They're probably in it with the insurance companies to pillage our planet of it's resources and our precious bodily fluids!

All hail the Mackrel, King of the Fish!
Invest 25



Quoting Allan012:


Pffft... GW is just bogus science used for monetary grants...


Of course it is. Just like those weather making machines the insurance industry is using to hammer the east coast with hurricanes so they can raise their rates and make billions! MAUAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Oh darn, my tinfoil hat came loose again! Their mind control beams are getting in! Quick, I must go bath in juice of fresh Guatamalen Papaya to rejuvenate my brain cells from the eletromagnetic damage!

Sssssshhhhhhh! Did you hear that? I think I have a radio in my fingernail! Or it could be aliens. They're probably in it with the insurance companies to pillage our planet of it's resources and our precious bodily fluids!

All hail the Mackrel, King of the Fish!
The denial lobby has tried to paint climate science as the home of irrational fear. It certainly is possible to get carried away with most anything. One only has to look at the posts about HAARP and contrails on the blog to see that, but look again and ask yourself where is the greatest ambition? Who has the greatest motivation "to lie, to cheat, to steal, to hurt others, to sacrifice things of real value" as Dan Gilbert puts it. Where is the "passionate ardour which drives us to violate the rules either of prudence or of justice" as Adam Smith describes it. Who has spent hundreds (seems that way) of millions of dollars on a public relations campaign of denial?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The admins need to take control of this place. They have to hand down some bans. Not perma-bans, but 24-48 ones, just to send a message that the debates here need to be more civilized. And that goes for both the supporters and deniers of AGW, because some members of both sides are completely disrespectful. I like the debates, and I think they should continue, but they need to be toned down a little and the only way that happens is if admin takes control.


I agree..but do they have the nad's to do it?
We shall see..
175. txjac
Maybe some of the people here that havent made a decision about AGW or who are on the fence are wondering about that have made up their mind about it being totally true and what they are doing about it personally?

I have seen in the past many people asking others what they are doing to reduce their carbon impact and those questions are unanswered.

I'm one of those on the fence ...I do believe that the way we treat our planet is awful (reminds me of that old commercial where the Indian is looking at a stream with a tear running down his face as he looks at the debris in a river/creek). I know that they way that we treat mother earth is horrible and I do what I can to make it better

1. Used to live 38 miles from my office and made the move to now be six miles away from the office
2. Recycle plastic
3. Leave my cans where there is a disabled man that picks them up to turn in to cash
4. Consolodate trips
5. Walk to the store for small trips with items that I can handle carrying
6. Donate clothes and food.
7. Monitor my electric

What more can we do?

I never see more suggestions?
Everyone seems like they want to beat "big oil" but its what we have right now and I thinkg that we should all join together to lessen the amount of usage. I know that alternatives are being worked on and once they become price comprable I will be looking to change.

Maybe those that are total believers can list out what they are doing or what others can be doing to reduce our footbprints
176. etxwx
PRI's To the Point radio show had an interesting topic today: Oil and Gas Boom Reshapes US Energy Landscape.

It's been in the news that the US is poised to become "energy independent" but this is the part I did not know: (emphasis added) "Dr. Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency said the agency’s prediction of increasing American self-sufficiency was 55 percent a reflection of more oil production and 45 percent a reflection of improving energy efficiency in the United States, primarily from the Obama administration’s new fuel economy standards for cars. He added that even stronger policies to promote energy efficiency were needed in the United States and many other countries."

I had no idea energy efficiency contributed that much to our potential energy independence - that's a good sign. The show also discussed natural gas for transportation fleets, bio-fuels, fracking, the climate and more. I thought it was pretty informative and an even-handed discussion.

The podcast can be downloaded here.

There is no transcript available, but the guests and the topics they discussed are linked here:
Elisabeth Rosenthal - NYT
Kevin G. Hall - McClatchy Newspapers
Philip Verleger
Ralph Cavanagh - NRDC
Quoting txjac:
Maybe some of the people here that havent made a decision about AGW or who are on the fence are wondering about that have made up their mind about it being totally true and what they are doing about it personally?

I have seen in the past many people asking others what they are doing to reduce their carbon impact and those questions are unanswered.

I'm one of those on the fence ...I do believe that the way we treat our planet is awful (reminds me of that old commercial where the Indian is looking at a stream with a tear running down his face as he looks at the debris in a river/creek). I know that they way that we treat mother earth is horrible and I do what I can to make it better

1. Used to live 38 miles from my office and made the move to now be six miles away from the office
2. Recycle plastic
3. Leave my cans where there is a disabled man that picks them up to turn in to cash
4. Consolodate trips
5. Walk to the store for small trips with items that I can handle carrying
6. Donate clothes and food.
7. Monitor my electric

What more can we do?

I never see more suggestions?
Everyone seems like they want to beat "big oil" but its what we have right now and I thinkg that we should all join together to lessen the amount of usage. I know that alternatives are being worked on and once they become price comprable I will be looking to change.

Maybe those that are total believers can list out what they are doing or what others can be doing to reduce our footbprints


Your doing more than most..
And I do remember that commercial with the Indian..it was touching..
Maybe a campain like that with re-cycle tips would have an impact..
I know for a fact my daughter has never seen it..
We need to do more thinking and less finger pointing..
Quoting txjac:
Maybe some of the people here that havent made a decision about AGW or who are on the fence are wondering about that have made up their mind about it being totally true and what they are doing about it personally?

I have seen in the past many people asking others what they are doing to reduce their carbon impact and those questions are unanswered.

I'm one of those on the fence ...I do believe that the way we treat our planet is awful (reminds me of that old commercial where the Indian is looking at a stream with a tear running down his face as he looks at the debris in a river/creek). I know that they way that we treat mother earth is horrible and I do what I can to make it better

1. Used to live 38 miles from my office and made the move to now be six miles away from the office
2. Recycle plastic
3. Leave my cans where there is a disabled man that picks them up to turn in to cash
4. Consolodate trips
5. Walk to the store for small trips with items that I can handle carrying
6. Donate clothes and food.
7. Monitor my electric

What more can we do?

I never see more suggestions?
Everyone seems like they want to beat "big oil" but its what we have right now and I thinkg that we should all join together to lessen the amount of usage. I know that alternatives are being worked on and once they become price comprable I will be looking to change.

Maybe those that are total believers can list out what they are doing or what others can be doing to reduce our footbprints


It's hard to live a really efficient lifestyle. I drive the most fuel efficient car I can afford, use burlap bags instead of plastic or paper, recycle, shop and buy local whenever possible (if not I shop at employee and eco friendly big businesses and buy ecologically sustainable food and goods), buy new and eco-friendly electronics to lower power usage, etc.
None of this by any means makes me a close to perfect eco consumer, however, I do my best to balance economics and ecology and support local business.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Does that say Sandy's total damages will be over 100 billion? Wow.
The latest official word is that Sandy's damages could top $30 billion in New York alone, and up to $60 billion elsewhere for a total of as high as $90 billion or so. (Insured losses would likely be between a third to one-half of that.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The latest official word is that Sandy's damages could top $30 billion in New York alone, and up to $60 billion elsewhere for a total of as high as $90 billion or so. (Insured losses would likely be between a third to one-half of that.

Do you have a source for those figures?
147 Chucktown: A friend just sent this to me - Sandy NWS assessment team disbands.
151 CybrTeddy: Does that say Sandy's total damages will be over 100 billion? Wow.

In NewYork alone, unemployment claims have risen by 360thousand in the past 2weeks due to layoffs by businesses still in the process of attempting to recover from Sandy.
Because the subject is important enough, I'm breaking my own strictly-held rule of never reposting in-full
Well, that was fast.
The entire National Weather Service's "Service Assessment" for the "Hurricane Sandy Event" (as the assessment team named the study, hereinafter SA) has been terminated.

In an email at 9:46 this morning, Douglas Young of the National Weather Service wrote the SA team members:
I am writing to inform you that effective immediately we are terminating the spin-up of the National Weather Service Sandy Service Assessment Team.

We have been informed that a larger, multi-agency review of this event may take place
... [emphasis mine]

Sandy will likely end up causing $100 billion or more in total (direct and indirect) damage and more than 125 deaths. Because of its importance, on November 2, I urged the NWS to charter a completely independent investigation.
The NWS, instead, decided to go ahead with its internal service assessment but for the first time put an outsider -- me -- in the co-chair position. I was told by David Caldwell, Director, Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services, that I would learn the NWS wanted an unbiased and thorough examination of Sandy.

Given the scores of deaths and the huge level of damage (according to media reports 100,000+ are still without power), even with excellent forecasts the Sandy Assessment may have been the most important the National Weather Service has ever conducted. Now it has been stopped. Why?

In the short period of time I worked on this project, a number of interesting questions surfaced:
Was there a decision not to call Sandy a "hurricane" regardless of its meteorological characteristics? If this decision was made, was it made Friday (October 26th) or Saturday morning? If so, who made the decision and why?
Was this decision the reason hurricane warnings, in spite of a large and dangerous hurricane moving toward the coast, were never issued?
Given that an obvious large and powerful hurricane was headed for the U.S. coast, why wasn't that decision reconsidered? For example, Barry Myers, the CEO of AccuWeather, urged (on the AccuWeather.com website) the immediate issuance of hurricane warnings about eight hours before landfall. Others also urged the lack of hurricane warnings to be reconsidered.

While the team's work officially didn't begin until Tuesday (November 13), I had already gathered hundreds of pages of information, literally dozens of suggestions, and some rather tantalizing leads that Sandy may or may not have been handled as it should have been from a scientific, administrative, or communications standpoint.
Now, in spite of all of the suffering and billions in damage, we may never know how well all the storm was handled.

A personal note: I was very impressed with the other members of the SA team. I'm sorry we will not be able to complete our assignment.
Posted by Mike Smith
Blog is having some errors tonight..
OOOooooopps...

big blog hole...
*poke poke*
Are we back? :)
Helloooo?? Do you see me Sherwood? TA? Caicos?Bohonk? Anyone?
Mild here in South Central Texas, no rain to talk about since Late Sept and the cracks in the ground are getting pretty big, we could use a Flood or 2 here as Lake Travis is down like 52 feet. I was hoping for El Nino but that looks like it won't happen. Currently a pleasant 58 degrees with low humidity.
National Geographic Channel is doing a show called Superstorm 2012. Started at 9 Central time, will repeat again at 11PM central.
Lots of footage of Sandy I've never seen. Some I have. Even after all the videos and photos I've seen, it's still so shocking.
Hello anyone who sees this...
Quoting wxchaser97:
Hello anyone who sees this...

I see you wx..you see me?
Looks like Yuba City, Ca. is gonna' get wallooped by a winter storm causing extended periods of possible travel delays and possible life-threatening weather. Yuba City may have to take one on the chin like Fourteenpeoplelivethere, Mt. did during Brutus's full wrath. Could this be winterstorm Cletus to be? It's not fair to ask the west to absorb another storm of any sort so soon after the havoc caused by Brutus. I understand 24 miles of I-65 were shut down for a few hours and 106 new trails were open in ski country. Brutus in the short and long term was an economic and climatological net positive, I'd posit.
Quoting pcola57:

I see you wx..you see me?

I see you pcola!
Quoting wxchaser97:

I see you pcola!


Cool wx..I felt so alone..LOL.. :)
Quoting pcola57:
Helloooo?? Do you see me Sherwood? TA? Caicos?Bohonk? Anyone?


Thanks Sherwood.. :)
Quoting txjac:


The Daily Mail doesnt get everything wrong ...first place that I heard about Iran shooting at our drone, it was also the first place that I read about things being done (had some wine so I cant remember what?) about slowing or reversing AGW. I actually emailed it to Nea to ask about it and he said he had heard about it too ...and not just the Daily Mail.

People have to read all sides of issues and not just rely on the side that talks about the way that they feel.


That would be correct if the "side" you are referring to wasn't consistently misrepresenting data. Anyone who thinks/says global warming stopped 16 years ago has a few screws loose.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Looks like Yuba City, Ca. is gonna' get wallooped by a winter storm causing extended periods of possible travel delays and possible life-threatening weather. Could this be winterstorm Cletus to be? It's not fair to ask the west to absorb another storm of any sort so soon after the havoc caused by Brutus. I understand 24 miles of I-65 were shut down for a few hours and 106 new trails were open in ski country. Brutus in the short and long term was an economic and climatological net positive, I'd posit.

NWS Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-CA124CCFECDFF0.SpecialWeatherState ment.124CCFFA7868CA.MFRSPSMFR.633be39cc4ed2f8d6e6f 2d70190422b3 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 14:20 PST on 11-15-2012
Effective: 14:20 PST on 11-15-2012
Expires: 03:30 PST on 11-16-2012
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:

...PROLONGED WET AND WINDY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST...OVER THE RIDGES OF THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS...AND EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE LIKELY TO GUST 40
TO 60 MPH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
INITIAL FRONT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST...WHILE
WINDS INLAND WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
INITIAL FRONT...PEAKING SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION RATES OF 1 TO
3 INCHES IN JUST A SIX HOUR PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON COAST.
SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY NEAR 6500 FEET WILL LOWER TO 3500 TO 4500
FEET BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS ABOVE 5500 FEET...AND 6 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED AT
THIS SAME ELEVATION IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WHILE SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL ON INTERSTATE FIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE INITIAL STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WINDIER AND WETTER FRONTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY GUST 55
TO 75 MPH ALONG THE COAST...OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL SURGE UPWARD TO 6000 TO 7000 FEET EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN WILL LOWER BACK TO 3500 TO 4500 FEET MID-
WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN APPRECIABLE RISES AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING ON CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. ADDITIONAL STORM
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED LATER NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THIS ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES.

Instructions:
Target Area:
Central Siskiyou County
Modoc County
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties
South Central Siskiyou County
Western Siskiyou County
Forecast Office: NWS Medford (Southwest Oregon and Northern California)


Ahh, more fuel to the fire !!

Link

Read the comments below the article.
The upcoming ice age has been postponed indefinitely

Posted on 27 January 2010 by John Cook

The 9th most popular skeptic argument is that we're heading into an ice age. The whole premise of the website Ice Age Now is that a new ice age could begin any day. Considering the skeptic aversion towards alarmism, it's surprising that this idea has gained so much traction. In the interest of lowering skeptics' stress levels, its time to put all those ice age fears to rest once and for all.



http://www.skepticalscience.com/upcoming-ice-age- postponed-indefinitely.html


----------

iceagenow.com content is run by a former architect turned author called Robert Felix. Many of the articles are in denial of climate science...

Read more on Mr Felix and the myth of glaciers advancing in George Monbiot's 2005 column from the Guardian: Junk Science
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2005/may/10 /environment.columnists



Quoting Chucktown:
Ahh, more fuel to the fire !!

Link


As stated in the article..that is a bold prediction..look close at the years there.

Worldwide snow also way above normal.

Link

Plenty to chew on for the night.
A Response to the President's Comments on Global Warming
By Joe Bastardi November 15, 2012

During President Obama's press conference on Wednesday (his first in 8 months), he said, "We can't attribute any particular weather event to climate change. What we do know is the temperature around the globe is increasing faster than was predicted even 10 years ago."

I must admit, it is refreshing to see the president discard some of the hysteria surrounding Hurricane Sandy and its link to global warming. Anthropogenic global warming activists will attribute every extreme weather event to global warming, which has now been termed "climate change" since the earth has stopped warming.

However, the rest of his comments are certainly a byproduct of what I opined about in my August article, "Mr President, Tear Down This Wall." He is surrounded by a wall that does not allow the truth about climate change, or at least the light of debate, to ever come forth.

Let us avoid a thousand words by using one picture to quickly debunk the president's statement on the global temperature.

Not only is the temperature no longer rising, but one can also see the disconnect with CO2.

As far as the temperatures rising faster than forecasted, a couple of points:

1.) The only way that could happen is if they were being forecasted to fall, since they are not rising.

2.) When you compare the observed temperatures of the past 10 years against all the climate model predictions, the result should do more than raise eyebrows about how much taxpayer money is being wasted on climate science that is proving to be wrong.

Before we adopt carbon policy that can hurt our already struggling economy, there needs to be an unbiased debate about what is actually driving our climate. A leader truly interested in the good of his nation would allow the lifeblood of the economy, which is still fossil fuel energy sources, to flow freely while cultivating the alternative energy sources in a way where someday they can compete and drive down prices further. If the president is serious about doing what is in the best interest of the nation, then he will acknowledge the reality of the AGW situation: It has paused, and in the coming years will be proven to be cyclical in nature as cooling becomes more established.

Copyright 2012 The Patriot Post



Quoting Chucktown:
Ahh, more fuel to the fire !!

Link

Read the comments below the article.


Yes. I found this comment rather cute.

"CO2 is a relatively heavy gas and would be in its highest concentrations near or below ground level. Therefore there could not be enough CO2 in the upper atmosphere to make a difference to the climate when it comes to trapping heat. That just leaves variations in solar radiation and variations in air pressure ,density and the milankovich cycles as being the determining factors when it come to heating or cooling of the atmosphere. The best case scenario is that we have a little ice age the worst case is that what might look like a little ice age is actually the initial phase of a big ice age. This is something most people are not ready for mentaly or physicly."

Is Steven Rowlandson even remotely aware of atmospheric mixing? Updrafts? Downdrafts? Hurricanes circulate large volumes of air and takes surface winds into the upper atmosphere. Trade Winds? Come on. Steve's thinking would be true in a stagnant room of air.
209. etxwx
Good post txjac about what we can do in our own lives to lower our impact. We have this kinda unusual retrofit to our electric hot water heater. The unit we have is called an Air-tap A7 on Amazon, but the original company, Airgenerate now markets an integrated version.

Our model is basically a small AC unit on top of a conventional electric hot water heater. A copper coil goes down into our well insulated HW tank so when the Air Tap runs, it transfers the heat to the water and blows out cool air. The water heater is in the laundry room and the cool air is vented into the kitchen to supplement our central air. Because we live in a hot area of the country, we can turn the breaker off for the water heater and use the Air Tap to heat all our hot water during the warm months plus we get some cool air. In the winter, we just switch it off and turn the regular water heater back on. It still uses electricity, but it's a two-fer during the warm months - a good example of using the heat generated by air conditioning for other purposes.
Here's a review and a pic: Link
One would think that someone desiring to be seen as a credible meteorologist would link to credible sources... just sayin.
Quoting Chucktown:
Worldwide snow also way above normal.

Link

Plenty to chew on for the night.






epa03470429 A picture made available on 14 November of workers clearing snow from Sukhbaatar Square in Ulan Bator, Mongolia, 11 November, 2012. The first heavy snowfall of the year blanketed the Mongolian capital and was followed by a cold snap that sent temperatures to minus 28 degrees Celcius. The cold weather marked the start of Ulan Bator's air pollution season, when tens of thousands of families light their coal-fired stoves to keep warm, spewing coal dust into the atmosphere. The high levels of particulate matter has given Ulan Bator the dubious distinction as the world's second most polluted city, according to the World Health Organization. EPA/MICHAEL KOHN
Source: EPA
Quoting Chucktown:
Worldwide snow also way above normal.

Link

Plenty to chew on for the night.


When a warmer atmosphere is capable of holding more moisture did you expect the snow to cease when it gets cold enough to support snow?
According to an article by PostMedia News, Environment Canada officials have confirmed that there are in fact contaminants accumulating in the precipitation near oil sands operations.
While that is pretty significant news, the more concerning piece of information in the article was that, once again, federal scientists were kept from publicly sharing research information.
"[Environment Canada's] research conducted during winter 2010-11 confirms results already published by the University of Alberta that show contaminants in snow in the oilsands area," said an Environment Canada 'background' document obtained by PostMedia.
"If scientists are approached for interviews at the conference, the EC communications policy will be followed by referring the journalist to the media relations ... phone number. An appropriate spokesperson will then be identified depending on journalist questions."
The article also notes that the scientists were emailed a list of scripted responses: they were told to say that tests in 2010 showed no toxins in the Athabasca River and no links between contaminants and marine life. more here.
Quoting Skyepony:
got a little rain today here in Santa Barbara, California, from a passing band of weak showers associated with that system...hopefully we'll get some more in the coming days
Quoting Chucktown:
Ahh, more fuel to the fire !!

Link

Read the comments below the article.


Alright, even though I am AGW, I am not this stupid. I know 4th graders smarter than these folks.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Glad to see you back Aussie..
By the way,that image (post# 217) is hard for me to read..can you link me?..TIA.. :)
My feelings on this blog these past few days....

Quoting pcola57:


Glad to see you back Aussie..
By the way,that image is hard for me to read..can you link me?..TIA.. :)

Done.
Quoting AussieStorm:
My feelings on this blog these past few days....



Intense video..thanks for sharing..
Quoting AussieStorm:
My feelings on this blog these past few days....



Huge Muse fan. That's a new one to me. Thanks. :)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. I found this comment rather cute.

"CO2 is a relatively heavy gas and would be in its highest concentrations near or below ground level. Therefore there could not be enough CO2 in the upper atmosphere to make a difference to the climate when it comes to trapping heat. That just leaves variations in solar radiation and variations in air pressure ,density and the milankovich cycles as being the determining factors when it come to heating or cooling of the atmosphere. The best case scenario is that we have a little ice age the worst case is that what might look like a little ice age is actually the initial phase of a big ice age. This is something most people are not ready for mentaly or physicly."

Is Steven Rowlandson even remotely aware of atmospheric mixing? Updrafts? Downdrafts? Hurricanes circulate large volumes of air and takes surface winds into the upper atmosphere. Trade Winds? Come on. Steve's thinking would be true in a stagnant room of air.



hahahah, well if he was correct, convective clouds couldn't form, and clouds would be confined only to dense fog, and the whole surface of the earth would be covered with smog, then ;)
Perth right now. I would love to be there but it's about 3500kms from me.

Looks like the doo doo is about to hit the ventilation machine on the Israel/Gaza Strip
with a ground invasion might be growing near as troops, tanks and armored personnel carriers massed near Israel's southern border with the Palestinian territory.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Looks like the doo doo is about to hit the ventilation machine on the Israel/Gaza Strip
with a ground invasion might be growing near as troops, tanks and armored personnel carriers massed near Israel's southern border with the Palestinian territory.
That area has been a mess for thousands of years. Something big will have to happen to end it. The GFS has been trending to a more zonal pattern here. I do believe it is temporary, and it will flip back to the big east coast troughs.
Some good thinking by W. S. Broecker on the subject of the -once and future global ocean currents-. I wont comment, as a map on weatherunderground sez it all.

"During the course of the 50 000-yr-duration glacial period, 20 climate shifts similar to that marking the beginning of the Younger Dryas occurred. It is highly unlikely that each was driven by a sudden influx of ponded meltwater. Rather, there must have been another cause. One possibility is that these shifts were driven by a salt oscillator (Broecker et al., 1990). During times when the conveyor was off, the northern Atlantic region was extremely cold, and fresh water accumulated in the ice caps of Canada and Scandinavia rather than running off to the sea. This allowed the salinity of surface waters in the Atlantic Ocean to rise. When the salt density of waters in the northern Atlantic became large enough, conveyor circulation was reinitiated. Once in action, the heat released from the conveyor's upper limb caused the ice caps to recede, releasing fresh water to the Atlantic. Surface water salinities were then driven back down to that level where deep water could no longer form, causing the conveyor to shut down. Viewed in this context, one would conclude that during the Allerød, warm ice cap melting drove down the salinity of the northern Atlantic until the shutdown threshold was reached. Likely the surge of water stored in Lake Agassiz merely pushed the system over the brink; i.e., in the absence of such a surge, the system might well have reached this threshold due to the progressive reduction in salinity caused by the ice cap melting. Similarly, greenhouse-driven polar warming and strengthening of the hydrologic cycle during the coming 100 or so years may push the system over the brink once again, bringing the conveyor to a halt."


Lightning strikes in south-east Queensland during the past 45 minutes
Carbon dioxide does vary with altitude, but not significantly.


(Click image for source page)

Check out how in May and July the CO2 levels near the surface are somewhat lower as thriving vegetation sucks up CO2. The effect is dampened in September and shows a marked reverse in February when vegetation is dormant.

The plot below compares CO2 from research flights and ground stations. Note that even into the stratosphere (solid red dots), CO2 levels are not much different than they are at the surface (always in the 370-395ppm range):


(Click image for source page)



(So if somebody tells you that "CO2 is a relatively heavy gas and would be in its highest concentrations near or below ground level", as was quoted above, they are either misinformed or they are lying to you.)
In regards to Doug's apology to me this morning (post 927 of the blog before last), I just wanted to express how proud I am that he said what he did. I'm not a person that likes to apologize, so I know how much courage it sometimes takes (way more than it should). Seriously, reading that just now made my night, which was actually going somewhat awry in the last two hours. Not because I was personally offended (you guys know me better than that :P), but because I possess very little faith in humanity as a whole. After reading Doug's apology, however, it has increased... a tad. Hey, it's a start, right? ;)

In all seriousness Doug, if you are reading this, I hope you know how proud of you I am, and how much respect you've earned with me afterward.

I may be cold, but I am not above accepting forgiveness from others (indeed, even seeking it), and I will do so if they come to me with an open heart.

Love and peace.
So...

Who broke the blog a little while ago?
Quoting Slamguitar:
So...

Who broke the blog a little while ago?


I unno bruh but it was so radical wasn't it?

I was all lost confused and, and... Hey! Are you listening?
Quoting Slamguitar:
So...

Who broke the blog a little while ago?


You mean it wasn't you? ;)
Drought forces Midwest firm to ponder drier future

DECATUR, Ill. (AP) — At the height of this year's drought, decision-makers at the agribusiness giant Archers Daniels Midland kept an uneasy eye on the reservoir down the hill from their headquarters.

At one point, the water level fell to within 2 inches of the point where the company was in danger of being told for the first time ever that it couldn't draw as much as it wanted. The company uses millions of gallons of water a day to turn corn and soybeans into everything from ethanol and cattle feed to cocoa and a sweetener used in soft drinks and many other foods.

Rain eventually lifted Lake Decatur's level again. But the close call left ADM convinced that, like many Midwestern companies and the towns where they operate, it could no longer take an unrestricted water supply for granted, especially if drought becomes a more regular occurrence due to climate change or competition ramps up among water users.

While companies in the Great Lakes region and other parts of middle America long counted on water being cheap and plentiful, they now realize they must conserve because finding new water sources is difficult and expensive — if it can be done at all.

"You've got to plan for the worst, and be prepared for that," said Brad Crookshank, the wastewater superintendent for ADM's corn processing plant in Decatur. "There's not a lot of low-hanging fruit for additional water supplies."

ADM, which pumps more water out of Lake Decatur than any other consumer, wasn't the only big water-user affected by the drought. Two Midwestern power plants shut down for periods this summer because they lacked water to operate, according to Midwest ISO, the electrical-grid operator for the region. MISO spokesman Brandon Wright declined to identify the plants because they're owned by grid clients.

With half of Minnesota, the "Land of 10,000 Lakes," still in deep drought, the Department of Natural Resources told 50 water users, including several major ones, to stop drawing from rivers and streams in October.

They included a paper plant owned by Sappi North America and a ceiling panel factory owned by USG Corp. The companies declined to comment, but DNR officials said they expressed concern about the future of their businesses.

"We have discussions like, 'Are you going to shut us down or put people out of work?' And we say 'You need to identify (alternative) sources of water so we're not put in this position,'" said Dave Leuthe, deputy director of the Minnesota DNR Ecological and Water Resources Division...

...But the two companies would like the city to expand its water supply, a costly endeavor. Decatur is spending $1.6 million on four temporary wells, and a water consultant who works with a number communities around the country facing similar problems recommends capturing more of the river that feeds the lake, though that could take water from other communities grappling with the drought downstream.

"I hear that all the time," said the consultant, Pamela Kenel. "We need to be designing for a new normal."
Good morning/evening all. It's warmed up to 41 degrees this morning, though the windchill is 36. AND, for the first time after three sleepless nights, I slept from 8 pm to 4:30, no smoke detectors going off! I set my daughter to research the problem and it looks like some hard wired alarms will go off it gets too cold or too hot. I didn't have my heat on and my bedroom gets much colder than other parts of the house and that was setting off the smoke detector. Sigh, I do love a cold bedroom to sleep in...
Quoting AussieStorm:
A Response to the President's Comments on Global Warming
By Joe Bastardi %uFFFD November 15, 2012

During President Obama's press conference on Wednesday (his first in 8 months), he said, "We can't attribute any particular weather event to climate change. What we do know is the temperature around the globe is increasing faster than was predicted even 10 years ago."

I must admit, it is refreshing to see the president discard some of the hysteria surrounding Hurricane Sandy and its link to global warming. Anthropogenic global warming activists will attribute every extreme weather event to global warming, which has now been termed "climate change" since the earth has stopped warming.

However, the rest of his comments are certainly a byproduct of what I opined about in my August article, "Mr President, Tear Down This Wall." He is surrounded by a wall that does not allow the truth about climate change, or at least the light of debate, to ever come forth.

Let us avoid a thousand words by using one picture to quickly debunk the president's statement on the global temperature.

Not only is the temperature no longer rising, but one can also see the disconnect with CO2.

As far as the temperatures rising faster than forecasted, a couple of points:

1.) The only way that could happen is if they were being forecasted to fall, since they are not rising.

2.) When you compare the observed temperatures of the past 10 years against all the climate model predictions, the result should do more than raise eyebrows about how much taxpayer money is being wasted on climate science that is proving to be wrong.

Before we adopt carbon policy that can hurt our already struggling economy, there needs to be an unbiased debate about what is actually driving our climate. A leader truly interested in the good of his nation would allow the lifeblood of the economy, which is still fossil fuel energy sources, to flow freely while cultivating the alternative energy sources in a way where someday they can compete and drive down prices further. If the president is serious about doing what is in the best interest of the nation, then he will acknowledge the reality of the AGW situation: It has paused, and in the coming years will be proven to be cyclical in nature as cooling becomes more established.

%uFFFD Copyright 2012 The Patriot Post








Strange how that graph is so different from this one:


Everyone have a great Friday! And I am off after today for nine days!!!!
WOW FL!!
The 06z GFS shows a potent nor'easter producing a lot of precipitation up and down the Eastern Seaboard with very cold air. If this were to occur, snow would occur all the way down into North Florida. No joke.

If this were to occur, snow would occur all the way down into North Florida. No joke.


Bring it on!
Quoting AussieStorm:
A Response to the President's Comments on Global Warming
By Joe Bastardi � November 15, 2012

During President Obama's press conference on Wednesday (his first in 8 months), he said, "We can't attribute any particular weather event to climate change. What we do know is the temperature around the globe is increasing faster than was predicted even 10 years ago."

I must admit, it is refreshing to see the president discard some of the hysteria surrounding Hurricane Sandy and its link to global warming. Anthropogenic global warming activists will attribute every extreme weather event to global warming, which has now been termed "climate change" since the earth has stopped warming.

However, the rest of his comments are certainly a byproduct of what I opined about in my August article, "Mr President, Tear Down This Wall." He is surrounded by a wall that does not allow the truth about climate change, or at least the light of debate, to ever come forth.

Let us avoid a thousand words by using one picture to quickly debunk the president's statement on the global temperature.

Not only is the temperature no longer rising, but one can also see the disconnect with CO2.

As far as the temperatures rising faster than forecasted, a couple of points:

1.) The only way that could happen is if they were being forecasted to fall, since they are not rising.

2.)
When you compare the observed temperatures of the past 10 years against all the climate model predictions, the result should do more than raise eyebrows about how much taxpayer money is being wasted on climate science that is proving to be wrong.

Before we adopt carbon policy that can hurt our already struggling economy, there needs to be an unbiased debate about what is actually driving our climate. A leader truly interested in the good of his nation would allow the lifeblood of the economy, which is still fossil fuel energy sources, to flow freely while cultivating the alternative energy sources in a way where someday they can compete and drive down prices further. If the president is serious about doing what is in the best interest of the nation, then he will acknowledge the reality of the AGW situation: It has paused, and in the coming years will be proven to be cyclical in nature as cooling becomes more established.

� Copyright 2012 The Patriot Post






I haven't done the research myself yet, so I an just throwing this out there, but how can temperatures be "no longer rising" when month after month both the US an the globe keep setting at least top ten warmest heat records per month? The fact that they're records implies that temperatures are indeed rising...

But I do agree with your and the president's first statements about contributing particular events to GW.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 06z GFS shows a potent nor'easter producing a lot of precipitation up and down the Eastern Seaboard with very cold air. If this were to occur, snow would occur all the way down into North Florida. No joke.



Aw snap! If Florida's gettin' snow I better stock up on orange juice now...
Good morning everyone, I see the 06z GFS has a Nor'easter and a big cold shot for some. I know it is in the late stage of the run but it could be a sign of things to come.
384hrs:


300hrs:
Good morning Folks..solid overcast and cool here this AM...
Quoting Astrometeor:


[...] I am AGW, [...]


I think AGW is an acronym for anthropogenic global warming, not "anti-global warming"? (Is that what you meant?)
Quoting HurrikanEB:



I haven't done the research myself yet, so I an just throwing this out there, but how can temperatures be "no longer rising" when month after month both the US an the globe keep setting at least top ten warmest heat records per month? The fact that they're records implies that temperatures are indeed rising...

But I do agree with your and the president's first statements about contributing particular events to GW.



The graph is probably a denier fraud. Here are the global decadal average temperatures with reference to 1951-80 (temp in C above the average). Source NASA GISS.

1981-90 0.20C
1991-00 0.32C
2001-00 0.55C

Link
248. yoboi
Quoting HurrikanEB:



I haven't done the research myself yet, so I an just throwing this out there, but how can temperatures be "no longer rising" when month after month both the US an the globe keep setting at least top ten warmest heat records per month? The fact that they're records implies that temperatures are indeed rising...

But I do agree with your and the president's first statements about contributing particular events to GW.


they are going by since records were kept....
Quoting Chucktown:
A friend just sent this to me - Sandy NWS assessment team disbands.

Link
Oh man, the implications, indications, signs... Wow. Just wow.
Enough of this climate change talk. Let's talk about the serious issue of the day. NO MORE TWINKIES! or ding dongs...
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Oh man, the implications, indications, signs... Wow. Just wow.

That's standard, Barefoot.

Nothing new here.

Move on. Or as Aquak9 would say "Carry on, Go in Peace"
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If this were to occur, snow would occur all the way down into North Florida. No joke.


Bring it on!

Bring it is right, Doug.

Too many chicken little types in the neighborhood this morning.
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Enough of this climate change talk. Let's talk about the serious issue of the day. NO MORE TWINKIES! or ding dongs...


I dunno, hang around and you may see a few ding dongs soon...
254. etxwx
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Enough of this climate change talk. Let's talk about the serious issue of the day. NO MORE TWINKIES! or ding dongs...


LOL, I heard that this morning... *gasp*...soon people all over the country will be hoarding Ho-Ho's.

Good morning all...it was a frosty morning here in East Texas.

Edited to add the inevitable... Wendy Williams starts %u2018Save The Twinkie%u2019 campaign
LOL morning all 43 here on the Northshore
Good morning..since it is Doc's blog i will not complain to much of what the topic is.All I know is that I better have a interesting winter.
Quoting goosegirl1:


I dunno, hang around and you may see a few ding dongs soon...


Blind Mellon Chitlin'?

I sorry, but if after all the warnings and press, if you decided NOT to prepare "because" the NHC quit calling this storm a hurricane, then maybe you belong in the Darwinian process. This is 20/20 hindsight maneuvering for litigation.
The end of Snowballs, Folks!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If this were to occur, snow would occur all the way down into North Florida. No joke.


Bring it on!


Agreed, I wouldn't mind a blizzard in Florida.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Blind Mellon Chitlin'?

I sorry, but if after all the warnings and press, if you decided NOT to prepare "because" the NHC quit calling this storm a hurricane, then maybe you belong in the Darwinian process. This is 20/20 hindsight maneuvering for litigation.


+1000 for certain. The Darwin Award is a harsh judge...
Quoting overwash12:
The end of Snowballs, Folks!
You know on Sunday I was trying to figure out whether I should by me that snowball or not...I didn't so now I have to rush to the store and get it before its gone.Thankfully CVS is in walking distance :).
[Reply to Mr. Mixon at comment 62. removed]
Quoting HurrikanEB:



I haven't done the research myself yet, so I an just throwing this out there, but how can temperatures be "no longer rising" when month after month both the US an the globe keep setting at least top ten warmest heat records per month? The fact that they're records implies that temperatures are indeed rising...

But I do agree with your and the president's first statements about contributing particular events to GW.


With respect to the U.S. and any other local area having a nth warmest year on record it is specifically referenced to just that local area. When you average all these areas across the globe and add all the temperatures, they comes out to a net increasing number, but local areas are in constant flux, with the net result being that there is much more record warmth being recorded than record cold.


Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If this were to occur, snow would occur all the way down into North Florida. No joke.


Bring it on!


I've always pictured an extreme artic blast of air causing GOM effect snow across SW. Florida.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning..since it is Doc's blog i will not complain to much of what the topic is.All I know is that I better have a interesting winter.


Pattern set ups is looking good for you washington115 if your wanting your snow that is...;)
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Pattern set ups is looking good for you washington115 if your wanting your snow that is...;)
Yes!.I'm not asking it to snow everyday of the winter.I just want to see at least 3 or 4 different good snow events of 4" or more(Not three feet like the one back in 2010 delivered).This doesn't have to be our snowiest winter just more interesting than the last..
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Enough of this climate change talk. Let's talk about the serious issue of the day. NO MORE TWINKIES! or ding dongs...

There's a reason for that.
I loved them as a kid.
But that was a very long time ago and haven't had one since!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I've always pictured an extreme artic blast of air causing GOM effect snow across SW. Florida.
It has happened...Sorta..Wiki..On February 12, snow started falling from Fort Myers and Tampa in Florida west towards New Orleans. Blizzard conditions were reported north of Tampa along the west coast of Florida due to ocean-effect snow. The storm crossed the Florida peninsula and intensified as it rapidly moved up the Eastern United States. High Point, North Carolina recorded 10-12" (25%u201330 cm) of snow, and temperatures as low as 10 F (%u221212 C) on the 11th, 5 F (%u221215 C) on the 13th, and 3 F (%u221216 C) on the 14th. It was said to be the coldest weather known to the oldest inhabitants. Washington, D.C. recorded its all-time record single snowfall of 20.5 inches (52 cm), though it was later broken. Cape May, New Jersey recorded 34 inches (86 cm), which is the highest single storm snowfall total ever in New Jersey, in what is normally the least-snowy part of the state.

The port of New Orleans was completely iced over by February 13, with ice floes reportedly floating out of the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico. On February 14 the city experienced its coldest ever Mardi Gras reading of 22 F (%u22126 C). The Krewe of Rex Parade was delayed while snow was removed from the route.[1]

Also on February 14, the low temperature in Miami was 29 F (%u22122 C), the second-coldest (and the first sub-30) temperature that the city has ever recorded.

North of the Mid-Atlantic region, the storm weakened somewhat, but it was still a very powerful blizzard. New York's Central Park recorded 16 inches (41 cm), which at the time was its third-biggest snowfall, but many surrounding areas recorded 2%u20133 feet (60 to 90 cm), as did most of New England.

There are even Cuban reports (made by the U.S. Weather Bureau, as Cuba was a U.S. territory at the time) that the country experienced hard frost which killed or damaged many crops. This was despite the cold air first having to cross the Florida Strait and its warm Gulf Stream waters. The blizzard of 1899 is referred to as "The Snow King".

The only other cold wave of such severity in the Southeast was the 1985 Florida freeze, which destroyed the citrus groves in central Florida, and forced the industry into south Florida.
Quoting overwash12:
The end of Snowballs, Folks!

gag
anyway, it's the bittersweet end of an era!
Quoting Chicklit:

There's a reason for that.
I loved them as a kid.
But that was a very long time ago and haven't had one since!
I have eaten a few in my day. I hope they can get back on track. Low showing up but far to the south.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Pattern set ups is looking good for you washington115 if your wanting your snow that is...;)

What about Southern PA?

Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes!.I'm not asking it to snow everyday of the winter.I just want to see at least 3 or 4 different good snow events of 4" or more(Not three feet like the one back in 2010 delivered).This doesn't have to be our snowiest winter just more interesting than the last..

Usually i have snow when u have snow cause the bad winter storms here come from the south... so start doing a snow dance wash! :p
We have had Ocean effect snows here in N.C. About 8 years ago they had a foot of snow in Manteo. I bet it would have to be a really cold blast to make it snow all the way to Tampa!
Quoting Doppler22:

What about Southern PA?


Usually i have snow when u have snow cause the bad winter storms here come from the south... so start doing a snow dance wash! :p
I tried and my husband looked at me as though someone else had taken over my body.lol.When we have a gry winter that usually leads to a dry spring and summer.Like this past year where parcipitation was almost absent.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I tried and my husband looked at me as though someone else had taken over my body.lol.When we have a gry winter that usually leads to a dry spring and summer.Like this past year where parcipitation was almost absent.

yeah and after a dead winter like last year in snow form... we need another large winter with a goods bit of snow
Quoting hydrus:
It has happened...Sorta..Wiki..On February 12, snow started falling from Fort Myers and Tampa in Florida west towards New Orleans. Blizzard conditions were reported north of Tampa along the west coast of Florida due to ocean-effect snow. The storm crossed the Florida peninsula and intensified as it rapidly moved up the Eastern United States. High Point, North Carolina recorded 10-12" (25%u201330 cm) of snow, and temperatures as low as 10 �F (%u221212 �C) on the 11th, 5 �F (%u221215 �C) on the 13th, and 3 �F (%u221216 �C) on the 14th. It was said to be the coldest weather known to the oldest inhabitants. Washington, D.C. recorded its all-time record single snowfall of 20.5 inches (52 cm), though it was later broken. Cape May, New Jersey recorded 34 inches (86 cm), which is the highest single storm snowfall total ever in New Jersey, in what is normally the least-snowy part of the state.

The port of New Orleans was completely iced over by February 13, with ice floes reportedly floating out of the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico. On February 14 the city experienced its coldest ever Mardi Gras reading of 22 �F (%u22126 �C). The Krewe of Rex Parade was delayed while snow was removed from the route.[1]

Also on February 14, the low temperature in Miami was 29 �F (%u22122 �C), the second-coldest (and the first sub-30) temperature that the city has ever recorded.

North of the Mid-Atlantic region, the storm weakened somewhat, but it was still a very powerful blizzard. New York's Central Park recorded 16 inches (41 cm), which at the time was its third-biggest snowfall, but many surrounding areas recorded 2%u20133 feet (60 to 90 cm), as did most of New England.

There are even Cuban reports (made by the U.S. Weather Bureau, as Cuba was a U.S. territory at the time) that the country experienced hard frost which killed or damaged many crops. This was despite the cold air first having to cross the Florida Strait and its warm Gulf Stream waters. The blizzard of 1899 is referred to as "The Snow King".

The only other cold wave of such severity in the Southeast was the 1985 Florida freeze, which destroyed the citrus groves in central Florida, and forced the industry into south Florida.
I remember that 1985 freeze, just moved to florida back then and was thinking I didnt move far enough south lol
276. etxwx
Quoting Chicklit:

There's a reason for that.
I loved them as a kid.
But that was a very long time ago and haven't had one since!


But if you had saved any of those childhood Twinkies, they would still be fresh and tasty to this day. ;-)

The Eternal Twinkie...may it rest in peace.
another front coming into the northwest states..probably our next weather event coming............
278. yoboi
Quoting hydrus:
It has happened...Sorta..Wiki..On February 12, snow started falling from Fort Myers and Tampa in Florida west towards New Orleans. Blizzard conditions were reported north of Tampa along the west coast of Florida due to ocean-effect snow. The storm crossed the Florida peninsula and intensified as it rapidly moved up the Eastern United States. High Point, North Carolina recorded 10-12" (25%u201330 cm) of snow, and temperatures as low as 10 �F (%u221212 �C) on the 11th, 5 �F (%u221215 �C) on the 13th, and 3 �F (%u221216 �C) on the 14th. It was said to be the coldest weather known to the oldest inhabitants. Washington, D.C. recorded its all-time record single snowfall of 20.5 inches (52 cm), though it was later broken. Cape May, New Jersey recorded 34 inches (86 cm), which is the highest single storm snowfall total ever in New Jersey, in what is normally the least-snowy part of the state.

The port of New Orleans was completely iced over by February 13, with ice floes reportedly floating out of the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico. On February 14 the city experienced its coldest ever Mardi Gras reading of 22 �F (%u22126 �C). The Krewe of Rex Parade was delayed while snow was removed from the route.[1]

Also on February 14, the low temperature in Miami was 29 �F (%u22122 �C), the second-coldest (and the first sub-30) temperature that the city has ever recorded.

North of the Mid-Atlantic region, the storm weakened somewhat, but it was still a very powerful blizzard. New York's Central Park recorded 16 inches (41 cm), which at the time was its third-biggest snowfall, but many surrounding areas recorded 2%u20133 feet (60 to 90 cm), as did most of New England.

There are even Cuban reports (made by the U.S. Weather Bureau, as Cuba was a U.S. territory at the time) that the country experienced hard frost which killed or damaged many crops. This was despite the cold air first having to cross the Florida Strait and its warm Gulf Stream waters. The blizzard of 1899 is referred to as "The Snow King".

The only other cold wave of such severity in the Southeast was the 1985 Florida freeze, which destroyed the citrus groves in central Florida, and forced the industry into south Florida.



was that gro in that pic???
Quoting Doppler22:

yeah and after a dead winter like last year in snow form... we need another large winter with a goods bit of snow
I still couldn't help the kids build the snow family like I had promised due to the dry winter.I could tell the kids were desperate after trying to build snow men in about a 1" of snow.
Quoting overwash12:
The end of Snowballs, Folks!



Prolly blame this on agw too.
281. VR46L
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Prolly blame this on agw too.


LMAO....
You know, there's a question I've always wondered. What would be the cause for significant snow in Florida? Maybe Levi or someone could answer that.
Superstorm looms over unstable east



SUPERCELL thunderstorms with the potential to create tornadoes are threatening to smash NSW and Queensland this weekend.

Considered the most dangerous storms, supercells develop where wind shear is present through a very unstable atmosphere.

"Supercell thunderstorms are likely to produce severe weather," said Tom Saunders, Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.

He said such extreme weather events were "likely across northeast New South Wales and southeast Queensland this weekend and have the potential to cause flash flooding, damaging winds and large hail".

"The wind shear leads to rotation within the storm and a longer lifespan," he said.

"Supercells often cause very heavy rain and flash flooding, large hail, damaging winds gusts and occasionally tornadoes.

The more intense thunderstorms this weekend have the potential to bring around 50mm of rain, but most of northeast New South Wales and southeast Queensland are expected to receive at least 20mm.

Mr Saunders said the chance of severe storms would reduce by Monday as the trough moves offshore.

In Queensland, any storms will follow an early burst of hot weather.

Ipswich is expected to record a top of 37C on Saturday, as will Brisbane's western and southern suburbs.

Much of the west will be in the 40s.

Weather Bureau forecaster Bryan Rolstone said the hottest place in the state would most likely be Bedourie in the far southwest, with 43C.

"A northwest wind will bring hot air out of the Gulf (of Carpentaria) and the NT," Mr Rolstone said.

"There'll be more moisture around on Saturday and a trough will be right on us, providing lift and moisture.

"We're about a month behind with our storm season, but moisture levels are rising."

The Yanks had Sandy, now our superstorm needs a name.

Which do you like?

Barry 9.06% (362 votes)
Shane 2.93% (117 votes)
Kylie 5.13% (205 votes)
Cheryl 6.86% (274 votes)
Bruce 10.81% (432 votes)
Tezza 9.89% (395 votes)
Gaz 6.38% (255 votes)
Shaz 23.88% (954 votes)
Jacko 6.48% (259 votes)
Col 2.43% (97 votes)
Donna 2.95% (118 votes)
Alfie 6.41% (256 votes)
Johnno 6.78% (271 votes)

Total votes: 3995
Quoting yoboi:



was that gro in that pic???
LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:
You know, there's a question I've always wondered. What would be the cause for significant snow in Florida? Maybe Levi or someone could answer that.


Cold weather.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Prolly blame this on agw too.
I stubbed my toe this morning.. because of agw..
Great photo Aussie, I vote for Tezza it sounds stormy.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I still couldn't help the kids build the snow family like I had promised due to the dry winter.I could tell the kids were desperate after trying to build snow men in about a 1" of snow.

Yeah i want another 09-10 winter
Quoting Doppler22:

What about Southern PA?


Usually i have snow when u have snow cause the bad winter storms here come from the south... so start doing a snow dance wash! :p


Here's a snow forecast link for you Doppler,it may be helpful as winter moves along.. :)
Quoting LargoFl:
I remember that 1985 freeze, just moved to florida back then and was thinking I didnt move far enough south lol
We had frost on the pilings at our marina...A rare event indeed.
Quoting Chicklit:

There's a reason for that.
I loved them as a kid.
But that was a very long time ago and haven't had one since!


Come on Chicklit. We all sneak a Twinkie now and then. I know when I pass the pharmacy to pick up my Geritol, I have to grab a Ring-Ding on the way out.
Quoting StormPro:
LOL morning all 43 here on the Northshore


The Northshore of What?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes!.I'm not asking it to snow everyday of the winter.I just want to see at least 3 or 4 different good snow events of 4" or more(Not three feet like the one back in 2010 delivered).This doesn't have to be our snowiest winter just more interesting than the last..


Well if your in the D.C. area I'd say getting 20-30 inches this year might be a good bet. It all depends on the timing with the cold air and phasing of systems, but it looks like it's going to be wetter than normal. CPC just came out a few days with their updated outlooks.

December Outlook

Precip:


Temperatures:


Three month outlook

Precip:



Temperatures:



I would expect that above normal anomalies for precipitation would extend all the way through mid-Atlantic states. The storm track would be right on top of you.
Quoting yoboi:



was that gro in that pic???
No. If that pic was 10 to the power of a googol, ya might have an image of the Grothar Entity.
Quoting Grothar:


The Northshore of What?

Nort shore about that.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida



1 KM Visible Satellite for Southern Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Carolinas
CyberTeddy, if we get a blizard in Florida you know they will blame it on global warming. 5th warmest October on record, how long do the records go back? Not very far I bet, maybe a couple hundred years of how many billions the Earth has been around.
Quoting Chucktown:
A friend just sent this to me - Sandy NWS assessment team disbands.

Link

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Oh man, the implications, indications, signs... Wow. Just wow.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

That's standard, Barefoot.

Nothing new here.

Move on. Or as Aquak9 would say "Carry on, Go in Peace"
Not standard for NWS to cancel a service assessment on order from higher-ups.

Bless your little heart for trying to understand, and please forgive me for not responding to further comment from you and/or others.

Have a nice day.
;)
This overcast, cool weather has been a very welcome change of pace here in Florida, very "gentle" weather. What is this talk of snow in the FL Panhandle?

To answer an earlier poster's question...For it to snow in Florida, you (obviously) need sufficiently cold temperatures, but also moisture and some sort of mechanism to cause precipitation. This moisture and/or mechanism tends to be rare in Florida when temperatures are cold enough for frozen precip. The Florida Panhandle experiences snow (often just flurries) somewhere at least every other year on average, whereas any type of frozen precip. is extremely rare in South Florida, and likely occurs an average of, say 3 times per century.
Quoting Grothar:


The Northshore of What?

Lake Ponchartrain...sorry. I thought everybody knew I was a Louisiana boy
I've seen news about three different documentaries will or have already aired. It did not mention viewer time zones, but a quick search should tell you.

Superstorm 2012 (National Geographic Channel Thursday, 10 p.m. (look for repeats)


NOVA: Inside the Megastorm (WNET/13, Sunday, 7 p.m.)


Superstorm 2012: Hell and High Water (History, Sunday, 9 p.m.)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Not only is the temperature no longer rising, but one can also see the disconnect with CO2.
As far as the temperatures rising faster than forecasted, a couple of points:

1.) The only way that could happen is if they were being forecasted to fall, since they are not rising.

2.) When you compare the observed temperatures of the past 10 years against all the climate model predictions, the result should do more than raise eyebrows about how much taxpayer money is being wasted on climate science that is proving to be wrong.

Of course we know that the earth is still accumulating heat on climatic timescales. Near-surface air temperatures alone are just a part, a very small part, of all the heat reservoirs of Earth. The atmosphere/oceans/ice, when looked at on climatic timescales, continue to accumulate heat and this rate has not reduced by any level of statistical significance.

Let's just say for argument that the air temperatures of the near surface atmosphere were not warming at the expected rate. Would it not then be countered by the fact that the ice and oceans are accumulating heat at a faster-than-predicted rate?
Quoting AussieStorm:
2.) When you compare the observed temperatures of the past 10 years against all the climate model predictions, the result should do more than raise eyebrows about how much taxpayer money is being wasted on climate science that is proving to be wrong.


Interestingly enough, when looking at a different source, the comparison between models used in the IPCC report and observed temperatures appears different:
Why AGW is not real:

It is impossible if the oceans are cooling. Ocean heat content is >1000000x than the atmosphere. http://bit.ly/USEOM8

In real science, theories are constantly being tested, but NO, regarding AGW, "the science is settled".

If the assertions (i.e. %u2013 polar bear population decrease) made by AGW advocates were true, they would be backed by hard data, and they are not.

If it were, the prior predictions of global climate computer models based on CO2 would have been correct, and they were not. No one can deny this, but they do anyway.

If it were, ALL climate money would go directly to deep subsidies for solar panels, and it does not. Do the math: everyone could already have them already if the money %u201Cused%u201D to date had been used for that purpose.

If it were, world governments would be building nuclear plants like crazy, and they are not. They produce no CO2 and the newer thorium-based systems are an order of magnitude safer than those built with early technology.

Climate science research goes on (http://bit.ly/SOYJpi ), but to deaf ears of those who are eager to profit from it.