WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

NWS LOWERS ITS VOICE: All-Caps Phaseout Starts in May

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 8:59 PM GMT on April 12, 2016

NOAA’s two operational supercomputers for weather prediction can carry out 5,000 trillion calculations per second. Until now, though, forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) could use only a measly set of 30 characters to translate that prodigous model output into the worded watches, warnings, advisories, and discussions that millions consult each day. A new era of commas, colons, parentheses, and lower-case letters--and maybe even the occasional question mark?--starts in May, when local NWS offices begin converting to mixed-case products. As NOAA put it in a news release on Monday: “LISTEN UP! BEGINNING ON MAY 11, NOAA’S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS WILL STOP YELLING AT YOU.”


Figure 1. A NOAA montage illustrates the evolution of communication technology at the National Weather Service.


As a 24/7 operational agency, the NWS is by nature cautious and deliberate when making changes that could affect how its work is disseminated in life-or-death situations. The agency’s shift to mixed case has been even more gradual than one might expect, mainly to ensure that its variegated user base can deal with the newly introduced character set. Many users (including WU--see below) feed NWS products into a wide variety of software.

Testing of the mixed-case format has been unfolding for most of this decade. At the National Hurricane Center, tropical weather outlooks and tropical cyclone discussions have been issued in mixed case beginning with the 2014 season. Four local NWS offices--Kansas City, MO; Louisville, KY; Spokane, WA; and Tallahassee, FL--have served as experimental testbeds since August 2011 for three mixed-case products: area forecast discussions, public information statements, and regional weather summaries. The national changeover in May involves all local offices switching to mixed case for these three products, with watches and warnings going mixed-case by August and most other NWS products by the end of the year.


Figure 2. Staff at the U.S. Weather Bureau office in Washington, D.C., prepare a forecast in July 1943, using data received by teletype from across the nation and plotted on maps. Image credit: Photo by Esther Bubley/Library of Congress, via Circuitous Root.


Figure 3. A Teletype Model 33 with paper tape reader and punch, on display at the National Museum of Computing. Many thousands of these models were sold in the 1960s and 1970s. Image credit: AlisonW/Wikimedia Commons.


A relic goes on the shelf
The practice of using a limited character set for NWS bulletins is a byproduct of the telegraph era. Telegrams were in all caps from the very first telegraph message ("WHAT HATH GOD WROUGHT", 1844]. As far back as the mid-1800s, telegraph machines were able to convert typed messages into Morse code and vice versa. By the early 1900s, these had evolved into hybrid printer/typewriter units called teleprinters. The most successful producer of these was a company founded in 1906 and renamed the Teletype Corporation in 1928, shortly before it was acquired by AT&T. Teletype machines were the standard mode of transmitting weather data when meteorology went through its enormous growth phase during and after World War II. They remained in common use as late as the 1980s, until personal computers became widespread.

The all-caps format of NWS bulletins emerged from the limits of the teletype keyboard, together with standards set by the World Meteorological Organization designed to accommodate nations with widely varying technological capabilities. No capital letters were allowed, and the only punctuation permitted was periods (.), ellipses (…), forward slashes (/), dashes (—), and pluses (+). These conventions went largely unseen by the public until the NWS website was established in the 1990s. Before that point, NWS text products were reformatted by newspapers or read aloud on TV and radio, including NOAA Weather Radio.

Forecasters found many ways to be creative within the old all-caps format, especially in forecast discussions that were originally designed for internal consumption and then opened to the public during the Internet era. You can find a rich set of classics archived in the Forecast Discussion Hall of Fame, including the best all-caps example of “talking like a pirate” you’re likely to encounter on land or sea.


Figure 4. The wide world of 95 characters now available to NWS forecasters to include as part of mixed-case messages.


From the front lines of mixed case
I asked Parks Camp, science and operations officer (SOO) at NWS/Tallahassee, about his office’s experience as a mixed-case testbed. “We received very little feedback one way or the other when we switched to mixed case,” Camp said. “Probably the biggest adjustment was internal. For example, with the area forecast discussion, forecasters have had to adjust how they write, taking advantage of the full suite of punctuation (not just periods and ellipses). When you spend most of your career writing in a particular style, it can take a little time to make the adjustment.”

Ron Miller, the SOO in Spokane, also chimed in: “Going with mixed case took a little getting used to, for both the meteorologists (who weren't used to typing mixed-case products) and the users,” he told me. One radio station commented that the mixed-case bulletins were harder to read and that the upper-case format was standard in the media world. However, says Miller, “In our digital world, upper-case is shouting. As such, many of the NWS upper-case products didn't sit well with web-savvy folks who saw this as poor etiquette. So it was nice to adhere to the societal norm.”

NWS meteorologist Art Thomas, who has been overseeing the national mixed-case changeover, said that about 20 out of 325 comments in a user survey advocated against making the change. “They fell into two broad categories: those that felt it was just easier to read upper case products (matter of personal preference) and those who felt upper-case letters added importance to our products.” Using all-caps will remain an option when forecasters truly want or need to emphasize something, said Thomas.

Jeff Masters on the Weather Underground solution: using hashtables to convert to mixed case
Back in 1998, two of Weather Underground's co-founders, Chris Schwerzler and Alan Steremberg, got tired of seeing the ALL CAPITAL LETTER ADVISORIES OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE and decided to implement a clever programming trick to convert the files to mixed upper and lower case. Their solution: put every possible place name that could appear in the advisories into a giant 5 MB hash table, then write software that would search the hash table to recapitalize the text. They got their hands on a geographical database for the U.S. that had the names of every city and geographical feature, and used that as the starting point. For example, here are the entries in the hash table for everything Ann Arbor-related:

Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor Gulch
Ann Arbor Municipal Airport
Ann Arbor Township

It was then a matter of adding a few more items that needed recapitalization, like the rotating list of all hurricane names in the Atlantic. When a storm got its name retired, I would have to add all the potential variants of the new storm name to the hash table; when the hurricane season of 2005 rolled around, and we got into the Greek alphabet, I had to add a whole slew of new entries, like this:

Tropical Storm Alpha
Tropical Depression Alpha
Hurricane Alpha
Alpha
Alpha's

As the years went by, I noted over 1500 phrases that were not being recapitalized properly, and edited the hash table to add/delete these items. There were a few things that could never be properly handled this way: for example, the word "Orange" should be capitalized when it refers to Orange County, but not when it refers to the color orange. Likewise, the abbreviation for Sunday (Sun) should not be capitalized when it refers to our faithful star, the sun. It will be nice to have things in mixed case from the source, instead of trying to do the job ourselves!

Jeff Masters (WU perspective) and Bob Henson

Communication

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ITS ABOUT TIME.. SHOULD BE EASIER TO READ.


END
GROTHAR
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson!
Just a week difference.
I think the only time they should have caps is during a dangerous weather event,like a land falling hurricane or a tornado outbreak for example to highlight the urgency of both danger and safety.Glad it is gone from normal everyday weather forecasting.Now all we need to work on is the spelling from the agencies tht spl lke ths.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 19m19 minutes ago
Substantial cooling beginning in eastern equatorial Pacific. This did not happen following 1983 and 1998 El Ninos.
We needed testbeds to change forecast products from all-caps to mixed-case text?

Sometimes things are made more complicated than they need to be lol.
Quoting 7. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We needed testbeds to change forecast products from all-caps to mixed-case text?

Sometimes things are made more complicated than they need to be lol.


Software has to be more complicated to interpret more characters. Yea, you're right, if it was only humans reading and relaying the forecast, that would be one thing. But think of a radio or cable station text to speech program that may have issues.
Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

I think the only time they should have caps is during a dangerous weather event,like a land falling hurricane or a tornado outbreak for example to highlight the urgency of both danger and safety.Glad it is gone from normal everyday weather forecasting.Now all we need to work on is the spelling from the agency's tht spl lke ths.

I agree with this wash
if its a PDS EXTREME WIND RAIN HAIL OR SNOW HURRICANE
THEN UPPER CASE IS BEST for the marking of dangerous weather
thanks for update gentlemen have a great evening
Quoting 4. Climate175:

Just a week difference.

IKR. Really deteriorating now. Australia BOM have currently issued a la nina watch.
I have always been desensitized to the all-caps writing in NWS warnings. It was just always the way warnings were written. Not really a fan of the changeover; for some reason I find the all-caps writing more professional.
Quoting 6. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 19m19 minutes ago
Substantial cooling beginning in eastern equatorial Pacific. This did not happen following 1983 and 1998 El Ninos.


14. bwi
Today's "spot the anomaly" in the Northern Hemisphere is a pretty easy one
My stupid phone put agency's -_-.The rain was useful this morning in getting rid of built up pollen that had accumulated on surfaces through out the weekend like the top of our tool shack for example.My allergies really appreciated the removal of the built up pollen as I could breath better and there was less sneezing and sniffing.
Quoting 14. bwi:

Today's "spot the anomaly" in the Northern Hemisphere is a pretty easy one


Parts of Greenland were in the upper 40s last week, around 25 degrees above average
Let it rain!...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016

...WET WEEKEND POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL YIELD TO AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM BY MID-WEEK. THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT THE
NEXT DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY WILL
HELP EASE THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA HEADING INTO
FRIDAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A
BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS TO END THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THE WEEKEND WET BUT THE GFS RETAINS A 500 MB LOW MOVING SOUTH
INTO FLORIDA ON SUNDAY THAT LATER IS ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH
RELATED TO ANOTHER 500 MB LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE FEATURE BEFORE SUNDAY AND KEEPS A SLIGHTLY DRIER
SOLUTION TO CONCLUDE THE WEEKEND FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
Quoting 1. Grothar:

ITS ABOUT TIME.. SHOULD BE EASIER TO READ.


END
GROTHAR
IMAGINEIFTHEREWASNOSPACEBAR...:)
Quoting 17. Sfloridacat5:


Parts of Greenland were in the upper 40s last week, around 25 degrees above average

Looking at that chart from the viewpoint of an innocent by standing member of the public, or the average Joe or Josie in the street; it looks a lot like the RED PANIC BUTTON in the northern hemisphere, that's already been pushed?

Needless to say, its going to be yet another interesting year in the history of humanity and their evolution into responsibility for their actions. Then again I could be yet again hopelessly ~WRONG~?
Quoting 16. Gearsts:




looking good there STS? bonnie soon?
Quoting 21. Tazmanian:



looking good there STS? bonnie soon?

LOL, i was gonna say that, but i was afraid i might get attacked. :-D
Quoting 21. Tazmanian:



looking good there STS? bonnie soon?
Models were showing some sort of storm forming in the vicinity north of Puerto Rico but had went back and forth with the time frame and has since dropped it.
Quoting 21. Tazmanian:



looking good there STS? bonnie soon?


It is an interesting looking feature. Models have hinted for some time.
Quoting 4. Climate175:

Just a week difference.


Also another important thing to note
The cold pool in N Atlantic is shrinking
Warm waters are starting to take over

Quoting 6. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 19m19 minutes ago
Substantial cooling beginning in eastern equatorial Pacific. This did not happen following 1983 and 1998 El Ninos.



Yes well I'm not too suprised about that

Quoting 21. Tazmanian:



looking good there STS? bonnie soon?


Quoting 24. washingtonian115:

Models were showing some sort of storm forming in the vicinity north of Puerto Rico but had went back and forth with the time frame and has since dropped it.


Wouldn't be surprised if it does happen

GFS has a habit of dropping storms just before they form and brings it back after it forms so won't be surprised if this does happen
27. Ylee
Likewise, the abbreviation for Sunday (Sun) should not be capitalized when it refers to our faithful star, the sun.

I thought perhaps you made a boo-boo when you kept the Sun in lowercase, so I looked it up:

Here's the Merriam-Webster's Collegiate Dictionary's first entry:

sun n 1 a often cap : the luminous celestial body around which the earth and other planets revolve...

So, you're good, Doc, but I am correct, too! :' )
XX/XX/XX
   Thanks for the Updates Gentlemen.
Also noticed several WU members finally figured out that Mr. Henson isn't a Dr.
About time they noticed....


there is a little black spot on the sun today

Newly registered and glad to finally be apart of this great weather blogging community! I have kept up with all the great weather information everyone provides here over the past 2 years and it has been helpful and useful. I am in my early 20s and have had a passion for understanding weather and the atmosphere since a kid.
Quoting 32. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Newly registered and glad to finally be apart of this great weather blogging community! I have kept up with all the great weather information everyone provides here over the past 2 years and it has been helpful and useful. I am in my early 20s and have had a passion for understanding weather and the atmosphere since a kid.

Welcome to the blog!!! Great weather folks here for sure!!!


Bulletin

TXXS23 KNES 121856
TCSSIO

A. 19S (FANTALA)

B. 12/1730Z

C. 12.8S

D. 68.7E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...0.8 CURVED BANDING MEASURED IN WHITE YIELDS A DT OF
4.0. MET=3.5 AND PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/1356Z 12.9S 69.1E SSMIS
12/1707Z 12.8S 68.6E AMSU


...KIM
Quoting 32. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Newly registered and glad to finally be apart of this great weather blogging community! I have kept up with all the great weather information everyone provides here over the past 2 years and it has been helpful and useful. I am in my early 20s and have had a passion for understanding weather and the atmosphere since a kid.

Welcome! I'm sure you will like it here.
I'm looking forward to the HH missions for the upcoming hurricane season.Especially if we have a intensifying storm nearing land.The blog would have a major melt down.
Quoting 19. hydrus:

IMAGINEIFTHEREWASNOSPACEBAR...:)
THENHANSOLOCOULDN'THAVEMETLUKESKYWALKERAND
WE'DHAVEBORINGSTARPEACEINSTEADOFSTARWARS
WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 12.8S 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENTRAIN INTO THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 24, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME
VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND
SHEAR DECREASING AS A POINT SOURCE DEVELOPS OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM,
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48.
BEYOND TAU 72, A REDUCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS WILL
CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
Do Houstonians have anything like THIS to look forward to tonight?Link Note 1st video. Would like an answer ASAP.
Could that low be SD Two or SS Bonnie?
Pictures of hail damage in Texas





More pictures and story found here

Link
Quoting 42. justmehouston:

Pictures of hail damage in Texas





More pictures and story found here

Link

lots of glass money too be spend and made

Quoting 42. justmehouston:

Pictures of hail damage in Texas





More pictures and story found here

Link

Yikes, and another reason I am glad I live in California....
Quoting 42. justmehouston:

Pictures of hail damage in Texas





More pictures and story found here

Link



I've seen those pictures, justmehouston, and, frankly, that's what's bothering me. HRRR seems to be depicting some serious windstorms occurring from South Houston to Galveston. What do you think? What could we REALLY be in for?
@pureet

I see nothing in our forecast for hail or damaging winds ...just rain, possibly some flooding. We're good.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
340 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 12 2016

Discussion...
challenging forecast with a front stalled near the coast around
Galveston and then inland to Bay City. Fog in the Gulf waters and
fog may spread inland this evening in the SW. Very moist airmass
in place over the region and will continue to spread into the area
with increased moisture transport as the winds increase in
response to a surface low developing to the west. Storms will
spread in from the southwest as diffluent flow aloft increases
tonight. Thinking that sometime tonight between 4-10z to the SW
and spread over southeast Texas. This pattern looks conducive to heavy
rainfall but where it focuses is still in question...some guidance
highlights the areas around College Station and other focus near
the coast. Will carry heavy rainfall possible and may need to
issue a Flash Flood Watch on the evening shift if confidence grows
in location. Storms will continue to refire and move northeast
throughout the day Wednesday...probably more along the coast.
Rains taper off from west to east by middle evening Wednesday. High
pressure builds Thursday in as transitory riding traverses the
region. Big low Parks near the 4 corners and turns our winds back
around to the southeast and begins the moisture pump Sat-Mon. Rain
chances gradually increase Sat-sun with 30-60 probability of precipitation especially
west. MS 150 race may be dodging storms on Sunday. The upper flow
pattern should help push the moist axis eastward from The Hill
Country into southeast Texas Sunday night/Monday which may give the area a
good round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures
don't vary much from climatology on highs but will be warmer on mins for
the most part with the warm air advection pattern returning.
Quoting 44. PedleyCA:


Yikes, and another reason I am glad I live in California....

And another reason why I'm glad I didn't take the job in Texas.Ya'll can keep that weather over there.
here is a video of the hail from Monday


Quoting 47. washingtonian115:

And another reason why I'm glad I didn't take the job in Texas.Ya'll can keep that weather over there.


But washi it ruined all my dreams of meeting up with you for coffee or a glass of wine, perhaps dinner.
I'm kind of bummed that you arent coming down here. I totally understand though.

Quoting 4. Climate175:

Just a week difference.

I wonder if the expected La Nina could develop earlier then anticipated just before the summer, say by early to mid June? Time will tell but you can certainly notice some big cooling in just a week pretty amazing
Quoting 1. Grothar:

ITS ABOUT TIME.. SHOULD BE EASIER TO READ.


END
GROTHAR


Well you started it with your whole 10 commandments thing. ;)

Quoting 48. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here is a video of the hail from Monday



two words --- "storm shutters"
Quoting 52. PedleyCA:


two words --- "storm shutters"

ya the steel type
Quoting 46. justmehouston:

@pureet

I see nothing in our forecast for hail or damaging winds ...just rain, possibly some flooding. We're good.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
340 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 12 2016

Discussion...
challenging forecast with a front stalled near the coast around
Galveston and then inland to Bay City. Fog in the Gulf waters and
fog may spread inland this evening in the SW. Very moist airmass
in place over the region and will continue to spread into the area
with increased moisture transport as the winds increase in
response to a surface low developing to the west. Storms will
spread in from the southwest as diffluent flow aloft increases
tonight. Thinking that sometime tonight between 4-10z to the SW
and spread over southeast Texas. This pattern looks conducive to heavy
rainfall but where it focuses is still in question...some guidance
highlights the areas around College Station and other focus near
the coast. Will carry heavy rainfall possible and may need to
issue a Flash Flood Watch on the evening shift if confidence grows
in location. Storms will continue to refire and move northeast
throughout the day Wednesday...probably more along the coast.
Rains taper off from west to east by middle evening Wednesday. High
pressure builds Thursday in as transitory riding traverses the
region. Big low Parks near the 4 corners and turns our winds back
around to the southeast and begins the moisture pump Sat-Mon. Rain
chances gradually increase Sat-sun with 30-60 probability of precipitation especially
west. MS 150 race may be dodging storms on Sunday. The upper flow
pattern should help push the moist axis eastward from The Hill
Country into southeast Texas Sunday night/Monday which may give the area a
good round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures
don't vary much from climatology on highs but will be warmer on mins for
the most part with the warm air advection pattern returning.


Anything like what happened on Memorial Day justmehouston.

P.S. Will somebody PLEASE save me from Houston weather!?
Quoting 54. pureet1948:



Anything like what happened on Memorial Day justmehouston.

P.S. Will somebody PLEASE save me from Houston weather!?


No. nothing like Memorial day ...
Our weather has been pretty tame here in the Houston area. We will be fine. No worries
Quoting 26. wunderkidcayman:



Also another important thing to note
The cold pool in N Atlantic is shrinking
Warm waters are starting to take over



Yes well I'm not too suprised about that





Wouldn't be surprised if it does happen

GFS has a habit of dropping storms just before they form and brings it back after it forms so won't be surprised if this does happen
Hey Wunderkid! I think it will get sheared apart before it can get organized. Any updates on your new mustache?

GFS has a habit of dropping storms just before they form and brings it back after it forms so won't be surprised if this does happen
Hey Wunderkid! I think it will fizzle out, but you never know. Do you have any more updates on your new mustache?
Quoting 21. Tazmanian:



looking good there STS? bonnie soon?
Maybe... feels weird to be looking at a STS in April that doesn't begin with A....
Quoting 54. pureet1948:

P.S. Will somebody PLEASE save me from Houston weather!?


You could move. Otherwise, its a bit tiresome to hear you drone on and on.

What are you going to do if there's a major spinning in the GOM this summer? I'm truly concerned you may have some kind of generalized anxiety disorder.
Quoting 30. PedleyCA:

   Thanks for the Updates Gentlemen.
Also noticed several WU members finally figured out that Mr. Henson isn't a Dr.
About time they noticed....

We just like calling him Dok Henson.... :-)
Quoting 41. HurricaneFan:
Could that low be SD Two or SS Bonnie?
Possibly but not automatically....
Quoting 47. washingtonian115:

And another reason why I'm glad I didn't take the job in Texas.Ya'll can keep that weather over there.
Oh yeah... they get everything in Texas....
What are you going to do if there's a major spinning in the GOM this summer?

Monitor all news broadcasts and follow the instructions of emergency management officials just like everybody else, I hope.
Quoting 57. GFS has a habit of dropping storms just before they form

Does that go for thunderstorms, too?
OMG Nino 1 2, that was a HUGE DROP.Link
Isn't there a preseason forecast due out this week?
Quoting 55. justmehouston:



No. nothing like Memorial day ...
Our weather has been pretty tame here in the Houston area. We will be fine. No worries


Oh, sorry for droning, justmehouston, but, just for fun (?) here is the HRRR image that I mentioned in post #45.



Andrew, on the khou.com weather forum, said this particular HRRR "has some pretty strong storms coming in late overnight. Could see some stronger winds if it is correct." How strong? 60 mph? 70mph? Anyone wanna try for 80?
Is the GFS on crack or are we really looking at a three day storm over almost the whole expanse of the high plains and east slope of the Rockies? It appear to be generating 3" to over 5" inches of liquid (look at the Nebraska pan handle) from west Texas to North Dakota. Most of that area sees no more than 20" of rain annually so 5"+ in one storm over a broad area seem really rare.

In my area just north of Denver the models are kicking out 2" to 4" plus of liquid . We average 14" total for the year so 4" would be a lot. Currently it looks like it will stay rain. If 4" fell as snow we would be looking at the potential for an all time record. The foothills above 7k are likely to get hammered with snow if this pans out. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out over the weekend
Quoting 64. BahaHurican:

Isn't there a preseason forecast due out this week?

Colorado State April 14th
Wow.... this El Nino is just going bye bye bye!!

I say La Nina by June-July
69. IDTH
I know I said I wouldn't come back till May but this has become unignoreable (I think that's a word). I follow Levi on Twitter and all I see is those really below average waters in the east pacific. Then to make things even more interesting, I come on here and see the Nino is absolutely plummeting at a huge rate. I'm no expert, but the only question I have now is about the cold pool of water in the North Atlantic which could hinder the cape verde season. I knew the Nino was weakening faster than people expected, but now it's just plummeting, it's just a matter of seeing if that rate will continue. This is almost what the climate models hinted at the end of last season when I saw one person (I forget his name) on the blog say "super LA Nina" (probably jokingly).
Quoting 69. IDTH:

I know I said I wouldn't come back till May but this has become unignoreable (I think that's a word). I follow Levi on Twitter and all I see is those really below average waters in the east pacific. Then to make things even more interesting, I come on here and see the Nino is absolutely plummeting at a huge rate. I'm no expert, but the only question I have now is about the cold pool of water in the North Atlantic which could hinder the cape verde season. I knew the Nino was weakening faster than people expected, but now it's just plummeting, it's just a matter of seeing if that rate will continue. This is almost what the climate models hinted at the end of last season when I saw one person (I forget his name) on the blog say "super LA Nina" (probably jokingly).
That person was totally me. ;)
Quoting 54. pureet1948:



Anything like what happened on Memorial Day justmehouston.

P.S. Will somebody PLEASE save me from Houston weather!?



Read the NWS and calm it down. Good lord....
73. IDTH
Quoting 70. Gearsts:

That person was totally me. ;)

I believe you. I remember now! I remember, you said you were going to be like Scott (it was something along the lines of that), but track the upcoming La Nina instead of the Super EL Nino he was expecting that whole year.
Quoting 32. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Newly registered and glad to finally be apart of this great weather blogging community! I have kept up with all the great weather information everyone provides here over the past 2 years and it has been helpful and useful. I am in my early 20s and have had a passion for understanding weather and the atmosphere since a kid.

Please keep in mind that, despite the contentions of many here, posting comments does not make you a blogger, nor is this a blogging community, whatever that means. Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson publish an online blog. Everything that follows is just commentary.
DEMI-BLOB SPOTTED IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

Oh, excuse me..

Demi-blob spotted in the central Atlantic.


Quoting 71. luvtogolf:




Read the NWS and calm it down. Good lord....




Oh, I was just kidding when I said that.

P.S.: I've taken up a new hobby: painting storm scenes.
Quoting 49. justmehouston:



But washi it ruined all my dreams of meeting up with you for coffee or a glass of wine, perhaps dinner.
I'm kind of bummed that you arent coming down here. I totally understand though.
Maybe we can meet over a steak dinner.I heard steaks down there are pretty large :)
A vorticity maximum look at our little blob in the Atlantic.

suns up on 19s

I'm giving our little AOI a 10% chance of development.
I am giving it 90 percent chance of no development
Quoting 64. BahaHurican:

Isn't there a preseason forecast due out this week?


yep.. expecting Philip Klotzbach to go with a near average hurricane season on Thursday with a huge error bar. Atlantic looks similar to last year but with no El Niño 1983 shows up as an analog as does 1998 which should help illustrate the spread of realistic scenarios. Tons of uncertainty
Quoting 78. Hurricane1216:

A vorticity maximum look at our little blob in the Atlantic.




It has "that look" (credit to Drak). Cyclogenesis is imminent, input to ATCF.
Quoting 84. KoritheMan:



It has "that look" (credit to Drak). Cyclogenesis is imminent, input to ATCF.


Quoting 83. hurricane23:



yep.. expecting Philip Klotzbach to go with a near average hurricane season on Thursday with a huge error bar. Atlantic looks similar to last year but with no El Niño 1983 shows up as an analog as does 1998 which should help illustrate the spread of realistic scenarios. Tons of uncertainty


I think the AMO will be more important than ENSO this year. I've narrowed down my predictions to encompass two distinct AMO scenarios (warm and cold):

Cold AMO: 11/6/3
Warm AMO: 17/9/4

My money's on a cold AMO; the last few years have been evidence enough for me that we've exited the warm cycle.
Quoting 82. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am giving it 90 percent chance of no development


More like 99. Upper lows in this location are pretty common. Convectively active ones are more rare, but even so...
Interesting history Dr. Masters. I enjoyed reading about it and what you had to previously do to make text more readable.
Quoting 53. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya the steel type


Better have ear plugs then. Only been in one bad hail storm. And we ran into a metal building... It was almost less painful to be outside getting hit with golf ball sized hail.
Quoting 71. luvtogolf:




Read the NWS and calm it down. Good lord....




I might have a problem doing that, luvtogolf. Look at this:



The arrows show the worst storms targeting Galveston, SE of Houston. Or do I read that right?
Quoting 71. luvtogolf:




Read the NWS and calm it down. Good lord....



>_>, I wasn't gonna say it but yeah. XD
92. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA/ERAU/Univ of Washington
AREA:: Trops - ePac to ATL, though most eyes as to this map range are on the ATL.
D&T:: VARY and timestamps have no regular interval.
The  lowClouds starts 20160-410;1430 till 201604-12;0300
The Lightning (INSERT) starts 201604-11;1615 till 201604-13;0115
OBS:: nothing OFFICIAL as of upload the VID title was created as ~3am UTC i thought my "NHC pg. has changed" alert went off but it was an error, i guess.NOTE1:: (time intervals vary)
NOTE2:: Best played in super wide theatre org. dimension is 1786x888.

WYS 628x312 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/xf4z6OsL6z4
well lets see how it goes here

Houston, TX (KHGX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

96. vis0
Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

I think the only time they should have caps is during a dangerous weather event,like a land falling hurricane or a tornado outbreak for example to highlight the urgency of both danger and safety.Glad it is gone from normal everyday weather forecasting.Now all we need to work on is the spelling from the agencies tht spl lke ths.
sorry could you please repeat the first 54 words i didn't understand.:-P
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WITH EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST WHILE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARD THE HOUSTON AND GALVESTON AREAS.
A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PALACIOS TEXAS TO 30 MILES EAST OF ANGLETON TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.


...THOMPSON
This system looks more like a Blob from August instead of April, something nice to look at. Where's Gro??

I have read most of your posts for the last 2 years.
Not sure if you really worry about whats about to happen, or if your looking for more information.
Your posts reflect that you tend to panic, and if that's the case, you need to relax and make sure your prepared for the worst as best as possible.
If something happens then beyond your control, you did the best you could! That's all we can do.
But worrying about something that could happen, usually, is a waste of time.
Just like forecasts past 10 days out.


Quoting 90. pureet1948:




I might have a problem doing that, luvtogolf. Look at this:



The arrows show the worst storms targeting Galveston, SE of Houston. Or do I read that right?
100. vis0

Quoting 46. justmehouston:

@pureet

I see nothing in our forecast for hail or damaging winds ...just rain, possibly some flooding. We're good.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
340 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 12 2016

Discussion...
challenging forecast with a front stalled near the coast around
Galveston and then inland to Bay City. Fog in the Gulf waters and
fog may spread inland this evening in the SW. Very moist airmass
in place over the region and will continue to spread into the area
with increased moisture transport as the winds increase in
response to a surface low developing to the west. Storms will
spread in from the southwest as diffluent flow aloft increases
tonight. Thinking that sometime tonight between 4-10z to the SW
and spread over southeast Texas. This pattern looks conducive to heavy
rainfall but where it focuses is still in question...some guidance
highlights the areas around College Station and other focus near
the coast. Will carry heavy rainfall possible and may need to
issue a Flash Flood Watch on the evening shift if confidence grows
in location. Storms will continue to refire and move northeast
throughout the day Wednesday...probably more along the coast.
Rains taper off from west to east by middle evening Wednesday. High
pressure builds Thursday in as transitory riding traverses the
region. Big low Parks near the 4 corners and turns our winds back
around to the southeast and begins the moisture pump Sat-Mon. Rain
chances gradually increase Sat-sun with 30-60 probability of precipitation especially
west. MS 150 race may be dodging storms on Sunday. The upper flow
pattern should help push the moist axis eastward from The Hill
Country into southeast Texas Sunday night/Monday which may give the area a
good round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures
don't vary much from climatology on highs but will be warmer on mins for
the most part with the warm air advection pattern returning.
my worry would be flooding if there are many home games since its hitting or maxing Friday through Domingo.

Going or coming from sporting events might get some into the mindset of taking on moving waters, NEVER CROSS a road where there is moving water nor when you cannot see the road markings CLEARLY.
NWS LOWERS IT VOICE:

WHAT??????
102. vis0
BEFORE...
REMEMBER ITS A PHASE-OUT NOT ALL OF A SUDDEN CHANGE OVER. THEREFORE i EXPECT THEY'LL BEGIN WITH A LOWER CASE "PERIOD".

AFTER...
REMEMBER ITS A PHASE-OUT NOT ALL OF A SUDDEN CHANGE OVER. THEREFORE i EXPECT THEY'LL BEGIN WITH A LOWER CASE "PERIOD".

//see //the //difference, //WOW!


Glad I'm not I-10 tonight!


Quoting 95. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Houston, TX (KHGX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)


104. vis0

Quoting 76. pureet1948:




Oh, I was just kidding when I said that.

P.S.: I've taken up a new hobby: painting storm scenes.
watercolour? (vis0 ducks to avoid objects coming from the direction of Central Texas)
Bow echo coming into Houston just blew through in about 10 minutes. Had some small hail. Not that much lightning, but tell that to my lab. He follows the weather more than you might expect.
106. vis0
WARNING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
141 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 AM CDT

* AT 141 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SPRING BRANCH CENTRAL TO FAIRCHILDS TO NEAR
NEEDVILLE TO NEAR BOLING-IAGO...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...SUGAR LAND...BAYTOWN...MISSOURI
CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SOUTHEASTERN
ROSENBERG...ALVIN...ANGLETON...DICKINSON...STAFFOR D...SOUTH HOUSTON...
BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...LA MARQUE AND SANTA FE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 2969 9492 2972 9501 2978 9505 2976 9508
2973 9506 2970 9505 2973 9503 2968 9498
2964 9502 2960 9498 2955 9502 2950 9495
2939 9503 2910 9548 2922 9581 2935 9595
2943 9584 2985 9551 2983 9499 2970 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 273DEG 40KT 2980 9551 2943 9575 2937 9580 2932
9590

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$


WATCH
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WITH EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST WHILE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARD THE HOUSTON AND GALVESTON AREAS.
A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PALACIOS TEXAS TO 30 MILES EAST OF ANGLETON TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.


...THOMPSON
Quoting 103. swflurker:

Glad I'm not I-10 tonight!





Oh no, Houston..

NOT AGAIN!
"The all-caps format of NWS bulletins emerged from the limits of the teletype keyboard, together with standards set by the World Meteorological Organization designed to accommodate nations with widely varying technological capabilities. No capital letters were allowed ..."

Whoops.

Ah, the lost arts of copy-editing and proofing.
Error?
111. MahFL
Quoting 12. wxgeek723:

I have always been desensitized to the all-caps writing in NWS warnings. It was just always the way warnings were written. Not really a fan of the changeover; for some reason I find the all-caps writing more professional.


Here is the TLH discussion in mixed case :

"562
FXUS62 KTAE 130725
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

In the mid and upper levels, there is a low over TX/OK and near
zonal flow over the Southeast with a minor shortwave trough
approaching in the afternoon/evening hours. At the surface, the
stalling cold front will be located just south and southeast of the
region. Expect showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to develop
by noon and move in from the west and southwest. POPs around 70
percent are forecast for the FL Panhandle and AL counties. POPs in
the 40 to 60 percent range are expected for the FL Big Bend and most
of the GA counties. Half an inch to 1 inch of rain is likely in the
FL Panhandle and parts of SE Alabama this afternoon. Elsewhere less
than half an inch is expected this afternoon. Highs this afternoon
will be mainly in the mid to upper 70s."

Looks ok to me, the parts you care about are easy to see.
It's about time the NWS "lowered their voice" as it were! I always hated all the upper case forecasts. I remember those TTY (teletypes) from years ago... had to work with them in the FAA for years. But at least they were the model 37s - which had mostly metal parts. The 33s had a lot of nylon and plastic parts and broke down often. It was cheaper but QUIETER (sorry for yelling).
The Greenland Summer Melt Season Just Started in April

12 Percent. That’s how much of Greenland’s surface experienced melt yesterday according to a report from DMI’s Polar Portal as an unprecedented flow of warm, wet air slammed into its great ice sheets. 10 Percent. That’s how much of Greenland’s ice sheet surface is required to melt in order to mark an official start to the Summer melt season. Late May or early June. That’s when Greenland melt season typically begins.

Link
LOL
Quoting 113. RobertWC:

The Greenland Summer Melt Season Just Started in April

12 Percent. That%u2019s how much of Greenland%u2019s surface experienced melt yesterday according to a report from DMI%u2019s Polar Portal as an unprecedented flow of warm, wet air slammed into its great ice sheets. 10 Percent. That%u2019s how much of Greenland%u2019s ice sheet surface is required to melt in order to mark an official start to the Summer melt season. Late May or early June. That%u2019s when Greenland melt season typically begins.

Link


The northern hemisphere summer could get 'interesting' as 2016 smashes the 2015 global temperature record. Maybe not in the shape of hurricanes, but droughts and floods could get a bit 'biblical'.
Thanks for that interesting Blog; a bit over my head as to the programming related issues but I agree with the comment from Art Thomas that an all-caps scenario is probably a good idea when it some to severe weather related warnings-advisories for emphasis.
The next issue they should look at is standardizing the automated "voices" that are used for many NOAA weather radio broadcasts; here in Tallahassee, they use the male voice and when I travel around the State, some of the local offices use the female voice; I actually think that the male sounds a bit more robotic than the female one and I prefer "her"............................. :)
Quoting 117. weathermanwannabe:

The next issue they should look at is standardizing the automated "voices" that are used for many NOAA weather radio broadcasts; here in Tallahassee, they use the male voice and when I travel around the State, some of the local offices use the female voice; I actually think that the male sounds a bit more robotic than the female one and I prefer "her"............................. :)


This is becoming nitpicky.
Epic hail pounds Texas, upping damage to nearly $2 billion this month

Link
well it seems there are no more morons in the group anymore (non-believers in manmade GW). now the question is what are we willing to give up this summer? turning up the thermostat? riding a bike instead of car. no vacation?
The Conus forecast for today; typical El Nino spring mix with lots of precip across the southern tier and snow out in the West and upper Mid-West:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

Quoting 59. LongIslandBeaches:



You could move. Otherwise, its a bit tiresome to hear you drone on and on.

What are you going to do if there's a major spinning in the GOM this summer? I'm truly concerned you may have some kind of generalized anxiety disorder.


Without question. It seems every time a cloud appears he/she thinks it's the end of the world.

Maybe he/she should try switching to decaf. :P


The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Heat index soars to record 51°C


Link
Not on the radar for development, and surrounded by very dry air, but a reminder that the E-Pac tropical storm season starts in about 32 days (May 15th):


Graphicast Atlantic
And the cost of the damage left to be repaired can now be measured in the billions. The two storms last month combining for an at least $1.3 billion price tag.

“What may be $2 billion in hail damage just from three North Texas hail storms. It’s a pretty serious omen” Hanna said.


Link
And Fantala in the South Indian Ocean is getting a groove on at the moment: impressive eye and very impressive structure for an 80 knot storm (and forecast to go up to 125):

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 66.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WITH DEEPENING CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
5-NM EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. A 130252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CORE CONVECTION NOW FULLY SURROUNDING THE MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS
BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS)
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE NOTED
IMPROVEMENT IN ALL IMAGERY. TC FANTALA IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. TC 19S IS
TRACKING IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK
OF 125 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW
WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO LEADING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN





Anyone seen StormTrackerScott since the last couple El Nino/ La Nina forecasts been out? Getting nervous about him... :)
Thankfully, Fantala does not appear to be a threat to land:


Quoting 127. 757surfer:

Anyone seen StormTrackerScott since the last couple El Nino/ La Nina forecasts been out? Getting nervous about him... :)


Nop he went down with the sinking ship has soon has his El Niño started to die out
Quoting 129. Tazmanian:



Nop he went down with the sinking ship has soon has his El Niño started to die out
Did you know there's a life outside the blog?
Quoting 130. Gearsts:

Did you know there's a life outside the blog?


I do but what about the other on here you guys act like you have nothing better too do then too blog on here all day and every day do you guys ever get any sleep go to work pay bills or just be with your kids? There other things too do then too be on this blog 24hrs a day that's why I don't blog March on here any more has there more fun things to do then to be on here when nothing March is happening with the weather
Quoting 110. Gearsts:

Error?


Nah plus Levi mentions this drop on Twitter
Quoting 110. Gearsts:

Error?




NOP.
135. vis0
Quoting 110. Gearsts:

Error?

quick get WATSON on the duo-line, this is a job for WASTON & uniVAC! plus commadore amiga C64
I spoke with the team by satellite phone on one of their last days of dives, and the shock in their voices was palpable.

“There’s a good chance that this reef will never be the same,” said Cobb. “It’s a wake-up call.”

From cores that Cobb’s team has analyzed, she estimated there’s been nothing like the current die-off in Kiritimati in the 7,000 years of ancient coral history there. About 10 months ago, this reef was still mostly healthy, as it has been for thousands of years. Global warming will make the pressure on global corals even worse in the coming decades, and many of the world’s reefs can expect future bleaching events to occur more frequently. For some, like those in Kiritimati, the last few months — the worst global coral bleaching episode in history — may be a point of no return.


Link
137. RayT
Not yet anyways. The storm will eventually curve south at some point, so Madagascar could be a long term threat.

Quoting 128. weathermanwannabe:

Thankfully, Fantala does not appear to be a threat to land:



138. vis0

Quoting 125. RobertWC:

And the cost of the damage left to be repaired can now be measured in the billions. The two storms last month combining for an at least $1.3 billion price tag.

“What may be $2 billion in hail damage just from three North Texas hail storms. It’s a pretty serious omen” Hanna said.


Link
Someone should have a running TAB on how much "we" save by not implementing laws to lower GW/aGW now versus pass the buck waiting till 10 yrs, 20, yrs, 30yrs (make sure the MAX year is within the lives of those living so they see how much of their nest egg they will have to use by waiting)

This could be done by STATE, country (HEAR me  upholders of proven science in Australia)

So far in the last month Texas has had at least 2+ major hail storms = 2 billion US dollars.

How much was saved???? if laws would have been passed oh lets say in the 1990s?

Sure its hard to be SPECIFIC as to which WEATHER EVENT (drought to deluge) was or was not aGW enhanced (NOT CREATED, but enhanced). Yet one can check the 100+ year records plus records thru nature (for rain/drought -tree rings, soil depth mappings) to see if there where this amount of weather extremes over the past 5000 years and a good comparison as to cost can be made.
139. RayT
http://sandiegoweathercenter.blogspot.ca/p/rain.htm l

for those of you wanting info on the rain situation in southern california.

if you scroll down there is a map that shows precipitation for the week.

most areas getting between a half inch and an inch of rain. More would be nice, but at this level we wont see too much flooding (which is nice) another rainfall like this in the coming days would really help.
View from top of the dune this morning looking over the NE GOM.. The Pelicans are back this year.. last year there where much fewer birds (and near-shore fish) at least compared to 2014... will be interesting to see how next year is


Here's a video of a group of Pelicans cruising over the waves this morning Link

Quoting 130. Gearsts:

Did you know there's a life outside the blog?
We know the real reason why...Just waiting for the 70 degree weather to arrive.50's are disgusting in April.
Quoting 136. RobertWC:

I spoke with the team by satellite phone on one of their last days of dives, and the shock in their voices was palpable.

“There’s a good chance that this reef will never be the same,” said Cobb. “It’s a wake-up call.”

From cores that Cobb’s team has analyzed, she estimated there’s been nothing like the current die-off in Kiritimati in the 7,000 years of ancient coral history there. About 10 months ago, this reef was still mostly healthy, as it has been for thousands of years. Global warming will make the pressure on global corals even worse in the coming decades, and many of the world’s reefs can expect future bleaching events to occur more frequently. For some, like those in Kiritimati, the last few months — the worst global coral bleaching episode in history — may be a point of no return.


Link

I wonder how coral will handle higher Tritium concentrations?
Japan prepares for release of radioactive tritium from Fukushima into the ocean
From The Telegraph (UK) this morning


Link
Much needed rain in SE TX this morning, I received just over 2 inches, had pea size hail briefly around 2:30AM hitting the roof and windows, (was lil nervous after seeing videos of all the damage in Dallas/FT Worth area) just a few miles up the road reports of 1 inch hail. Wind wasn't even an issue.

Grass should be on steroids now as I fertilized last week, rain helped get it in the ground good now.
Quoting 133. stormchaser19:




NOP.


Certainly NOP

Quoting 146. Patrap:










How much rain you get over there?
Peabody Energy, the largest coal company in the Western world, declared bankruptcy Wednesday. The announcement is a towering sign that coal power likely has reached a point of no return in a world seeking cleaner energy sources.

Link
A Lot, nuff for a Areal Flood Advisory
Areal Flood Advisory
Issued: 8:19 AM CDT Apr. 13, 2016 – National Weather Service

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for poor drainage areas
for...
St. Charles Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Orleans Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
northwestern St. Bernard Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
northwestern Plaquemines Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
northwestern Jefferson Parish in southeastern Louisiana...

* until 1215 PM CDT
* at 818 am CDT... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause Urban and Small Stream flooding.
Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor flooding in
the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
New Orleans... Chalmette... Harvey... Avondale... Hahnville... east New
Orleans... Marrero... Timberlane... Belle Chasse... Metairie... Jefferson...
Gretna... Harahan... Westwego... St. Rose... Luling... New Sarpy... Meraux...
Estelle and Woodmere.
Quoting 148. RobertWC:

Peabody Energy, the largest coal company in the Western world, declared bankruptcy Wednesday. The announcement is a towering sign that coal power likely has reached a point of no return in a world seeking cleaner energy sources.

Link


Saw that on CNN website earlier as well
Note the spin associated with the Meso developing as it slides East.

152. ariot
That Tritium glows in the dark in appropriate configurations. It costs like $30K a gram.



I got 1.67" in the bucket as the system passed thru, just some really light drizzle is all thats left.

Still have rains offshore hugging the coast due to a stalled out boundary


Remove that "s" from the http addy and your radar will post Rita.


Quoting 156. Patrap:

Remove that "s" from the http addy and your radar will post Rita.





Worked, when did that problem arise?
Quoting 110. Gearsts:

Error?



I don't think so as there's major upwelling beginning to occur and we'll likely see significant cooling across the Nino regions in the next couple weeks or so. Once it gets going, there's usually a fast transition from El Nino to La Nina.
Quoting 157. RitaEvac:



Worked, when did that problem arise?


Seems they added the "s" for some reason other than I can fathom, most likely IBM me tinks.



College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

No severe warnings in past 3 hours


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 643 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 611 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 550 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 537 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
it looks very likely that we may after all have STS Bonnie in April. The area northeast of Peuto Rico is showing some signs of activity the past few hours. The area shows strong 850mb vorticity with the shear dropping the next 24 hrs
Quoting 151. Patrap:

Note the spin associated with the Meso developing as it slides East.




Impressive...a Mesoscale Convective Vortex. I'd liken this to a Progessive Derecho...if it was on land.
Quoting 132. wunderkidcayman:


Nah plus Levi mentions this drop on Twitter


How long will it keep dropping, though? O_o
We might be at La Nina before we get our next storm at this rate...
I, for one, will miss the NWS CAPS.
Quoting 158. Envoirment:



I don't think so as there's major upwelling beginning to occur and we'll likely see significant cooling across the Nino regions in the next couple weeks or so. Once it gets going, there's usually a fast transition from El Nino to La Nina.


Looking like this may be a knee jerk reaction from El-Nino to strong La-Nina by August. If models pan then we may see climate go bi-polar big time. Guesses for this season are but just that. We're about to go on a wild ride. Hottest year ever recorded last year; was that not enough??!!
ALL THESE ARE TEST MESSAGES FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST


College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     MARQUETTE MI - KMQT 135 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NORTHERN INDIANA - KIWX 130 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
TORNADO WARNING     GRAND RAPIDS MI - KGRR 130 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MARQUETTE MI - KMQT 130 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
TORNADO WARNING     DETROIT/PONTIAC MI - KDTX 130 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
TORNADO WARNING     GAYLORD MI - KAPX 128 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING. 
THIS TEST TORNADO WARNING IS BEING ISSUED AS PART OF MICHIGAN SEVERE WEATHER  
PREPAREDNESS WEEK. IF THIS WERE AN ACTUAL WARNING...YOU WOULD BE  
GIVEN INFORMATION ABOUT THE LOCATION AND PATH OF THE STORM AND  
SAFE ACTIONS TO TAKE.  
 
* THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. AT THIS TIME...PLEASE REVIEW YOUR TORNADO  
PREPAREDNESS PLANS.  
Quoting 123. RobertWC:



The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Heat index soars to record 51°C


Link


Oh well, that record was bound to fall some time.
Old record was way back ten days ago.
Quoting 163. Articuno:



How long will it keep dropping, though? O_o
We might be at La Nina before we get our next storm at this rate...


As of April 11th, NOAA is still going with a 50% chance of La-Nina by Fall.
Link
I try to stay out of predicting El-Nino/Neutral/La-Nina conditions. That should be left to the "experts" in the field. The past few years have proved how difficult it is to predict these conditions accurately.
132.8 is a unbearable Heat ˆindex for anyone.

And we continue to dump giga-tonnes of CO2 into our Biosphere 24/7/365



2016, the year the CO2 induced Forcing''s overwhelm the avg's, norm, or anything in the past record wise.

This is Earth Atmosphere 2.0

Wetter, Wilder, and what will it do next ?

Quoting 141. washingtonian115:

We know the real reason why...Just waiting for the 70 degree weather to arrive.50's are disgusting in April.

Cmon, you enjoyed all that in December..
Quoting 172. Patrap:

132.8 is a unbearable Heat ˆindex for anyone.

And we continue to dump giga-tonnes of CO2 into our Biosphere 24/7/365



2016, the year the CO2 induced Forcing''s overwhelm the avg's, norm, or anything in the past record wise.

This is Earth Atmosphere 2.0

Wetter, Wilder, and what will it do next ?



It will kill the planet's coral inside of one or two decades.
I'd look at some Cambrian events for perhaps some inspiration of what we then get into. Although back then they didn't have nukes.
Nice sized meso-complex flying east along I-10 and I-20 this afternoon: more of a rain event so far but one possible tornado reported in LA in the past three hours.

last3hours Filtered Reports Graphic



FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
157 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016

...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THURSDAY FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


ALZ065>069-FLZ007>013-108-112-141200-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FF.A.0005.160413T1800Z-160414T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-NORTH WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTF ORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...C OWARTS...WEBB...
COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON...
BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA...
GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY...
LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN
157 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 /1257 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON.
IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL BAY...SOUTH WALTON...CALHOUN...
CENTRAL WALTON...HOLMES...INLAND BAY... JACKSON...NORTH WALTON
AND WASHINGTON.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* THIS RAINFALL MAY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND CAUSE AREA
CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE RAPIDLY OUT OF THERE BANKS OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND...DONT
DROWN.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

CAMP
The coming rain for North Florida/South Georgia/South Alabama will help alleviate some of the yellow-green pollen slime on everything in these parts that is outside near the oaks and other trees.; natures free car wash..............
Quoting 171. Sfloridacat5:



As of April 11th, NOAA is still going with a 50% chance of La-Nina by Fall.
Link
I try to stay out of predicting El-Nino/Neutral/La-Nina conditions. That should be left to the "experts" in the field. The past few years have proved how difficult it is to predict these conditions accurately.


First off that particular statement is a month old
Secondly that statement should be updated tomorrow
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. THE FEATURE WHICH WILL IMPACT
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS A LEAD WAVE THAT SHOULD PROGRESS FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE FORMING OFF THE BIG HORN
MOUNTAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ND. ELSEWHERE...AN
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
OVER THE MID-SOUTH LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR RETURN FLOW FROM THE
WESTERN GULF. IT APPEARS THAT A NARROW PLUME OF 40S SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LEE
CYCLONE NEAR THE BIG HORNS...WITH A DRIER/WELL-MIXED AIR MASS IN THE
WARM SECTOR. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM BY EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE
PREVALENT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
BUT GIVEN THE PROBABLE WEAK BUOYANCY AND INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE
WARM SECTOR...PRIMARY HAZARDS SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

...FL PENINSULA...
A BELT OF 35-45 KT 500-MB WESTERLIES SHOULD BE MAINTAINED DOWNSTREAM
OF THE MID-SOUTH UPPER LOW. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MINOR MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE SHOULD APPROACH THE PENINSULA IN THE EVENING. THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR OPTIMALLY TIMED FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION.
IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WHILE A DOWNBURST
AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR
POSSIBLY HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY FARTHER NORTH CLOSER
TO THE DRIFTING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WITHIN
A MODEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY. WHILE A DOWNBURST AND
SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.

..GRAMS.. 04/13/2016

No warnings since the last here
Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 643 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 611 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 550 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 537 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
182. 882MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
147 PM AST WED APR 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THEN A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
WHILE WEAKENING. A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST UPSTREAM
FROM THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT GFS FORECASTS DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 270 NM NORTH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST LEAVING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
UNTIL FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL ARC UP TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND JOIN
ANOTHER LOW FORMING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAINTAINING GENTLE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...BUT REMAINS SHALLOW UNTIL
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE APPEARING ON THE FLANKS
OF EL YUNQUE AND OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...BUT ONLY MINOR
CONVECTION IF ANY IS EXPECTED OVER LAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LOCAL CONVECTION INITIATED OVER SAINT CROIX IN
THE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLAND AFTER NOON...BUT SHOULD NOT
PERSIST FOR VERY LONG. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE MUCH. TONIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO IN THE LIGHT
FLOW FROM THE NORTH...BUT LAND BREEZES COULD EASILY HOLD OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS WHAT FEW SHOWERS WOULD HAVE APPROACHED. ALTHOUGH
PERHAPS NOT SO LIGHT...THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST
LONG AND WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP IN SHALLOW MOISTURE. MODELS SEEM
MORE OPTIMISTIC THAT SHOWERS WILL FORM AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY...BUT THE CENTER OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND MAY EVEN FAVOR EASTERN
PUERTO RICO.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING ON SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT THIS SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AND MAY REPRESENT THE
FIRST REAL FLOODING THREAT IN MANY MONTHS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
PERSISTS DURING THE WEEK THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA DOES NOT REMAIN
UNDER THE CORE OF THE BEST DYNAMICS OR THE BEST MOISTURE AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD END ON WEDNESDAY. INTERESTED PARTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FLOW.

&&
Quoting 173. cRRKampen:


Cmon, you enjoyed all that in December..
Yes you can call it natures way of payback for a early spring so we get a month that is actually in Spring to feel more like a December day than a April day.
Quoting 179. wunderkidcayman:



First off that particular statement is a month old
Secondly that statement should be updated tomorrow


Yes, hoping to see what changes (if any) will be made.
Quoting 172. Patrap:

132.8 is a unbearable Heat ˆindex for anyone.

And we continue to dump giga-tonnes of CO2 into our Biosphere 24/7/365



2016, the year the CO2 induced Forcing''s overwhelm the avg's, norm, or anything in the past record wise.

This is Earth Atmosphere 2.0

Wetter, Wilder, and what will it do next ?




CAHP
A tranquil pattern soon >>>?

Quoting 185. LouisPasteur:



CAHP
I thought that was supposed to be "AFLAC!!". :-)
We recently had the strongest positive PDO index (2.40) ever recorded for the month of March (records begin in 1900). As of a couple of days ago, the PDO continues its strong trend (see below). Remember during positive PDOs, Nina events tend to lessen in intensity and frequency. So the positive PDO remains a wild card in weakening our nina trend.

More important than PDO SSTAs is the forcing from the trades. If the trades remain normal, like they currently are, or they increase, then we'll continue to see nino SSTs drop faster. If trades weaken, then it gives a chance for the surface to warm with less eastern equatorial cold pool upwelling. Another factor is that the negative cold pool anomaly currently maxes out at ~3C, which isn't a lot.

These reasons, factored with model guidance, leads me to bet on a moderate Nina at best.

– Union of Concerned Scientists

New Evidence Reveals Fossil Fuel Industry Funded Cutting-Edge Climate Science Research Dating Back to 1950s

WASHINGTON (April 13, 2016)—A trove of documents released today by the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) reveals that the oil industry was well aware of the potential climate risks of fossil fuels decades earlier than was widely believed. The uncovered industry communications, scientific papers, and oral histories demonstrate that the petroleum industry was conducting climate research as early as 1957 and knew about the potential for catastrophic climate risks by 1968 at the latest.
Link
190. bwi
Early start to melting in Greenland, and more heat in the forecast.

http://polarportal.dk/en/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder/us aedvanlig-tidlig-afsmeltning-i-groenland/

Sometimes I'm blocked from commenting or using the plus button, usually for a day or two at a time, about once or twice a month. Does that happen to anyone else? Sometimes I haven't commented for weeks, so it shouldn't be a ban. BTW, if you are banned for some reason, are you notified or are you just blocked?

Thanks in advance...
The PDO issue is also important to the upcoming tornado season as some of the research suggests; will be interesting to see how this plays out come the tornado peak period in May and June:

http://www.hngn.com/articles/15414/20131021/warme r-pacific-ocean-temperatures-raise-risk-of-tornado es-but-were-entering-a-cool-phase.htm

193. ariot
Quoting 123. RobertWC:



The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Heat index soars to record 51°C


Link




See also. (People shot, injured and killed at rice protest April 2)

I once thought Fort Polk, Louisiana may be the hottest place on earth, but then I spent some time in the lowlands of the RP and changed my mind. (At least in the RMI, I could jump in the warmish lagoon to cool off)

Quoting 183. washingtonian115:

Yes you can call it natures way of payback for a early spring so we get a month that is actually in Spring to feel more like a December day than a April day.

I plussed this for the lol I got, it is so convoluted... December, 'early spring' ...

Typical brand of fatalism, I know it well from my own country (Holland). Popular belief is spring isn't allowed to present warm temps because then warmth apparently runs out too early. Never mind the statistics (zero correlation) or the hottest summer in more than three centuries, which also featured major warmth in spring (and followed the second coldest winter in one or two centuries).
Complete coastal ice break up has almost made it to Barrow, Alaska. It looks like the coast is pretty much ice free about 2 miles south of Barrow. In the city of Barrow, it looks like there's about a 1 mile wide section of coastal ice still left to reach open water. Normal ice break up usually doesn't start until May and may take until early July for a complete break up.

Last year's break up was on April 29th.

Link to the ice radar loops of the Barrow area. We could see a complete break up any day.
Link
Quoting 183. washingtonian115:

Yes you can call it natures way of payback for a early spring so we get a month that is actually in Spring to feel more like a December day than a April day.


It remains to be seen if April will average below normal. Models hint at a near summerlike pattern by months end.
After a warm March (not nearly as warm as this one though), April 2007 was very cold in the first half also. But that was a steadier cold. I do not remember any previous freeze in the eastern part of the area, where I live, ever being as destructive as the freeze April 6, 2016 has been. I am really missing wisteria and suspect few or no wild mulberries either. Black locust flowers are also wiped out for this year. Garden plants fared better.. my peaches will probably be okay and also my grapes.
Quoting 194. cRRKampen:


I plussed this for the lol I got, it is so convoluted... December, 'early spring' ...

Typical brand of fatalism, I know it well from my own country (Holland). Popular belief is spring isn't allowed to present warm temps because then warmth apparently runs out too early. Never mind the statistics (zero correlation) or the hottest summer in more than three centuries, which also featured major warmth in spring (and followed the second coldest winter in one or two centuries).


I used to cynically say that spring in winter will be followed by winter in spring.
Quoting 185. LouisPasteur:



CAHP


The California Association of Highway Patrolmen? Nefarious.
Update from San Juan NWS regarding the rain event for next week in the NE Caribbean.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING ON SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT THIS SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AND MAY REPRESENT THE
FIRST REAL FLOODING THREAT IN MANY MONTHS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
PERSISTS DURING THE WEEK THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA DOES NOT REMAIN
UNDER THE CORE OF THE BEST DYNAMICS OR THE BEST MOISTURE AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD END ON WEDNESDAY. INTERESTED PARTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FLOW.
Still going down.
“A Harbinger of the End of the Fossil Fuel Era” — Coal Production, Exports Plummet as Peabody Energy Declares Bankruptcy

“Peabody Energy’s steep decline toward bankruptcy is a harbinger of the end of the fossil fuel era … Peabody is crashing because the company was unwilling to change with the times, — they doubled down on the dirtiest of all fossil fuels, and investors backed their bet, as the world shifted toward renewable energy. They have consistently put profit over people, and now their profits have plummeted. Our world has no place for companies like Peabody.” — Jenny Marienau, U.S. Divestment Campaign Manager of the environmental group 350.org, in a recent statement.

Link
Everyone have a safe weather evening and be careful driving home in rush hour this afternoon in the SE (or if you are at work or school this afternoon or evening); see Yall in the am.



204. bwi
I really, really, really hope this article in an insurance journal isn't accurate. I'm stretching the limits of fair use here, so please read the article at the link for full context. This is sort of mind numbing...

I realize the proper science needs time for vetting and checking and interpretation, but this has major ramifications for the state I live in, and given the planning horizon, we may not have an extra decade for the scientists to check their numbers before taking fairly extreme action to protect infrastructure and economy.

Drs. Masters and Henson, I for one would greatly appreciate if you could verify this story via your science contacts at NOAA and elsewhere and report to us?

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/201 6/04/12/405089.htm

RIMS 2016: Sea Level Rise Will Be Worse and Come Sooner
By Don Jergler | April 12, 2016
Margaret Davidson, NOAA's senior advisor for coastal inundation and resilience science and services, and Michael Angelina, executive director of the Academy of Risk Management and Insurance, offered their take on climate change data in a conference session titled Environmental Intelligence: Quantifying the Risks of Climate Change.

Davidson said recent data that has been collected but has yet to be made official indicates sea levels could rise by roughly 3 meters by 2050-2060, far higher and quicker than current projections. Until now most projections have warned of seal level rise of up to 4 feet by 2100.

These new findings will likely be released in the latest sets of reports on climate change due out in the next few years.

The latest field data out of West Antarctic is kind of an OMG thing, she said.

Davidson's purpose was to talk about how NOAA is sharing information with the insurance community and the public, and to explain how data on climate change is being collected.

She explained that reports like those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the National Climate Assessment, which come out roughly every five years, are going on old data.

By the time the scientists compiling those reports get the data it's roughly two years old, because it took those gathering the data that long to collect it. It takes authors of the reports a few years to compile them.

"By the time we get out the report, it's actually synthesizing data from about a decade ago," she said.
205. IDTH
Quoting 200. Gearsts:

Still going down.


0-100 real quick.
Quoting 123. RobertWC:



The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Heat index soars to record 51C


Link



And almost nobody has air conditioning there. With the high dew points the nights must be awful too. May be a lot of fatalities.
bwi I think posting a link is enough. Imagine how long Brian's comments would be if he posted the whole articles!
Someone may have already posted this, but I haven't time to go thru all the posts.

The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) reports that the Greenland ice sheet has begun its seasonal melting much earlier than normal.

Link
Quoting 191. annabatic:

Sometimes I'm blocked from commenting or using the plus button, usually for a day or two at a time, about once or twice a month. Does that happen to anyone else? Sometimes I haven't commented for weeks, so it shouldn't be a ban. BTW, if you are banned for some reason, are you notified or are you just blocked?

Thanks in advance...


I've had this happen several times over the past few months, logging off then logging back in will usually do the trick.

I doubt you were banned, probably just a glitch.
Quoting 191. annabatic:

Sometimes I'm blocked from commenting or using the plus button, usually for a day or two at a time, about once or twice a month. Does that happen to anyone else? Sometimes I haven't commented for weeks, so it shouldn't be a ban. BTW, if you are banned for some reason, are you notified or are you just blocked?

Thanks in advance...
This has happened to me a few times for the past couple months. So don't worry it is not just you. As for being banned I've been wondering about that myself. I'd ask one of the mods when they pop in.
Greenland’s Ice Sheet is Melting So Fast Right Now, Scientists Thought It Was An Error

href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016 /04/13/greenland_is_melting_much_faster_than_scien tists_expected.html" target="_blank">Linkml
Quoting 197. georgevandenberghe:



I used to cynically say that spring in winter will be followed by winter in spring.

And the final classic, it ain't allowed to freeze in November because then winter will be spring. Never mind 1985-86 in Holland or so.
Quoting 191. annabatic:

Sometimes I'm blocked from commenting or using the plus button, usually for a day or two at a time, about once or twice a month. Does that happen to anyone else? Sometimes I haven't commented for weeks, so it shouldn't be a ban. BTW, if you are banned for some reason, are you notified or are you just blocked?

Thanks in advance...

I got banhammered a couple hours last year (for a thing not untypical for me when dealing with [retracted]). I sort of remember I saw some screen that notified me of that and contacted a mod.
Quoting 211. Alagirl:

Greenland’s Ice Sheet is Melting So Fast Right Now, Scientists Thought It Was An Error

href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016 /04/13/greenland_is_melting_much_faster_than_scien tists_expected.html" target="_blank">Linkml
Looks like the tipping point is behind us, folks.
Quoting 211. Alagirl:

Greenland%u2019s Ice Sheet is Melting So Fast Right Now, Scientists Thought It Was An Error

href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016 /04/13/greenland_is_melting_much_faster_than_scien tists_expected.html" target="_blank">Linkml

Thank you. Here is a better link to this article:
Greenland's Ice Sheet Is Melting So Fast Right Now, Scientists Thought It Was an Error
By Eric Holthaus, Apr 13



Another article on that:
Greenland's Melt Season Started Nearly Two Months Early
Climate Central, Published: April 12th, 2016
There's a Hopeful Message Hidden in These Dead Reefs
Climate Central, Published: April 13th, 2016
"It was a gut punch." - That's how Kim Cobb, a scientist at Georgia Tech, described what she saw on a recent dive on the reefs surrounding Christmas Island. She's studied them for the better part of two decades and what she saw this April was something she had never seen before. ...

Peabody, world's top private coal miner, files for bankruptcy
Source: Wed, 13 Apr 2016 08:39 GMT
April 13 (Reuters) - Peabody Energy Corp, the world's largest privately owned coal producer, filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection on Wednesday in the wake of a sharp fall in coal prices that left it unable to service a recent debt-fueled expansion into Australia ....

Environmental groups file lawsuit over pollution from U.S. aircraft
Source: Reuters - Tue, 12 Apr 2016 21:11 GMT

Malawi declares national disaster over food crisis
Malawi's President Peter Mutharika has declared a state of national disaster over food shortages caused by erratic climate conditions. It is one of several African countries affected by El Nino. ...

Good night greetings from western/central Europe which experienced a quite early rush of thunderstorms with remarkable hail the last days (though just smooth rains in my town Mainz); pics and reports on MeteoEurope. Moreover, tons of news available about the heatwave in India (combined with a forecast of a strong monsoon later) and in Pakistan as well, but I guess this will be top of the weather news for quite while ...


Temperature anomalies for tomorrow (notice the ongoing anomaly in southern Greenland). Next week spring in the eastern US and a cruel cold spell in the west?

Nice evening everyone and good night with this as I don't have much time at present. And thanks for the interesting last new blog entries, Bob 'n Doc. I'm glad that the "yelling" of the NWS will be history soon. As a foreigner I always had some struggles to read the forecast and discussions.
Don't know why, there's no sun up in the sky, stormy weather...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
403 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK
AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE INCREASING
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN. WHILE 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -11 DEG C OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY ARE
NOT TOO SHABBY, THE COOL OFF ALOFT OVER THE REGION TO -13 DEG C ON
FRIDAY AS MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEARS HAS PROMPTED THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER TO PUT MUCH OF THE PENINSULA INTO A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PEAK OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE DIURNAL HEATING HAS MAXED AND INSTABILITY
REACHES ITS HIGHEST POTENTIAL. YOU CANNOT DISCOUNT NOCTURNAL OR
MORNING CONVECTION SPURRED ON BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT
AS OF RIGHT NOW THE BEST COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS ON SATURDAY, THE CONVECTION WILL
FOCUS MORE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST SIDE OF THE CWA.
CFS is now showing a Strong La Nina.
Quoting 210. Tornado6042008X:

This has happened to me a few times for the past couple months. So don't worry it is not just you. As for being banned I've been wondering about that myself. I'd ask one of the mods when they pop in.

There is some bug that kicks you out, you can lurk but you can't get to your handle. It can last a few days. You can contact through support to get back in sooner. There is another validation bug where you might be able to validate through your e-mail. If not contact support. If you get banned you will see some reason. Y'all have not been getting banned.
Quoting 215. barbamz:


Thank you. Here is a better link to this article:
Greenland's Ice Sheet Is Melting So Fast Right Now, Scientists Thought It Was an Error
By Eric Holthaus, Apr 13



Another article on that:
Greenland's Melt Season Started Nearly Two Months Early
Climate Central, Published: April 12th, 2016


It appears that we are going to continue to see sary articles like this, but it will take melting sea ice to raise the sea enough to cause serious problems before the mainstream takes notice. By then, hopefully it isn't too late.

Starting to like the idea more and more of living up in the mountain, rather than down at current sea level.
222. N3EG
I remember using a Model 14 teletype and a model 33 teletype. I used the model 33 for hacking back before we were called hackers. One of my favorite things to do was to run a program on the mainframe that would make the model 33 print drum bounce up and down randomly with unprintable characters.

NNNN
I tried to have a friendly conversation.I see others have hidden intentions " Watch the wolves in sheep clothing "
CFS showing a bigger peak for the hurricane season.


Quoting 221. Dakster:



It appears that we are going to continue to see sary articles like this, but it will take melting sea ice to raise the sea enough to cause serious problems before the mainstream takes notice. By then, hopefully it isn't too late.

Starting to like the idea more and more of living up in the mountain, rather than down at current sea level.


You'll always be welcome at "Casa del Naga5000" Orlando's premier beachfront bed and breakfast.
Every single one of NOAA’s climate divisions saw abnormal heat in March.
"One stunning feature from the March 2016 temperature map was just how universally warm the month was. Every one of the 357 climate divisions across the contiguous United States and Alaska ended up—at least—in the “warmer than normal” category. That’s harder than it sounds: It means each of those divisions ended up in the top third of their own histories."
In San Diego, btw, we've seem to be getting an early start on our marine layer. April gloom?
Link

Quoting 221. Dakster:



It appears that we are going to continue to see sary articles like this, but it will take melting sea ice to raise the sea enough to cause serious problems before the mainstream takes notice. By then, hopefully it isn't too late.

Starting to like the idea more and more of living up in the mountain, rather than down at current sea level.
Always good to be several hundred meters above sea level...
Quoting 224. Gearsts:

CFS showing a bigger peak for the hurricane season.




We should be able to get at least an average season with that setup, maybe even slightly above average.
Quoting 227. PedleyCA:


Always good to be several hundred meters above sea level...



Not if your a Sailor or Exporter.

All ports are at Sea Level.

: )
All ports are at Sea Level

The Great Lakes beg to differ ;-)


Fantala working on her eye. The cyclone is a threat to northern Madagascar later on:


Quoting 221. Dakster:



It appears that we are going to continue to see sary articles like this, but it will take melting sea ice to raise the sea enough to cause serious problems before the mainstream takes notice...
Dakster,

Sea ice, such as the regular cycle of freeze/thaw in the Arctic has no impact on sea level rise. It is the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica melting which will be the cause of much of the sea level rise going forward. Additionally, much of the recent (last 50 years) of sea level rise has been due to the thermal expansion of liquid water in the oceans as they warm.

Other interesting phenomenon are at play, such as when the Gulf Stream slows down the U.S. mid-Atlantic states can experience spurts in sea level rise. This was an issue starting about 3 years ago.

You make a good point though that when the mainstream media comes to pay some attention to the topic, you can bet that icebergs will be the image they prefer to show the pubic, rather than the soggy first floors of houses and shops across Dade County. That's bad for the real estate business, after all.
233. IDTH
Quoting 224. Gearsts:

CFS showing a bigger peak for the hurricane season.




Still a fairly warm PDO.
Quoting 206. TheBigBanana:



And almost nobody has air conditioning there. With the high dew points the nights must be awful too. May be a lot of fatalities.


This is way the it works. Your grand ma dies from heat , you don't call the central data base. You bury her.

These heat deaths are coming in Asia . This is our second year. And earlier than ever.

Period.


Dear RitaEvac:
Take a look at what the GFS promises for SE Texas by Tuesday of next week and see if you don't agree with me that we will be in deep, deep, DEEP trouble.
236. vis0

Quoting 223. washingtonian115:

I tried to have a friendly conversation.I see others have hidden intentions " Watch the wolves in sheep clothing "
i beg to differ, not wool  its CASHMERE...(30%, 70% spun polyester...the type a teenage boy get his date cause he doesn't know any better than its only 15 bucks)

on another tune::
i can see a few member playing Kool & the Gang's Jungle boogie, the ♫get down get down♫  portion as they watch weekly  ENSO charts.

now back to the more serious

 can you believe that the present adjusted readings as to ocean rising is no fresher than 2 years some even further back since it takes time to collect/check/recheck the data and its been rising even more (not everywhere but the places where earth soaks the water gets a more serious result as the areas were the rising is being experienced gives one a warning to move but the ;land that soak one day all that salt and activity erodes it from underneath and suddenly as in thwump!, the 2nd floor is now your basement...pool or house in a sinkhole.
Remember my statement watch the insurance and oil company headquarters when the move their offices to higher ground
Quoting 235. pureet1948:



Dear RitaEvac:
Take a look at what the GFS promises for SE Texas by Tuesday of next week and see if you don't agree with me that we will be in deep, deep, DEEP trouble.


I think you are in serious deep trouble. I'll pray for you.
Quoting 237. Bucsboltsfan:



I think you are in serious deep trouble. I'll pray for you.


You're referring to the rain amount depicted in the 18Z GFS run I posted, yes? Couldn't that lead to a flood emergency being declared?
239. vis0

Quoting 235. pureet1948:



Dear RitaEvac:
Take a look at what the GFS promises for SE Texas by Tuesday of next week and see if you don't agree with me that we will be in deep, deep, DEEP trouble.
hi its me reeetaahhevac...
i think "deep, deep" maybe but no third nor BOLD font "deep", not to mention promises are meant to be broken..i think that's the GFS motto during TS season.
oh, tootaloo got-to paint my nails.


whadda ya mean i wasn't convincing i had my hands on my hips!

To my untrained eyes it might be a very localized flood, but in any case if it heads eastward its time for Patrap to get the wet-vac out again this is absolutely nuts. too dry too wet will the TS season follow that pattern several TS smudge years were the smudges are still rich in moisture to cause devastating floods then a few years with perfectly symmetrical TS, remember those TS smudges of the last few years had stronger winds that expected as read by dropsondes, yet they looked messy/smudgy
Quoting 238. pureet1948:



You're referring to the rain amount depicted in the 18Z GFS run I posted, yes? Couldn't that lead to a flood emergency being declared?


Oh most definitely. You are in DEEP trouble.
Personally, I like the all CAPS...
Quoting 236. vis0:


i beg to differ, not wool  its CASHMERE...(30%, 70% spun polyester...the type a teenage boy get his date cause he doesn't know any better than its only 15 bucks)

on another tune::
i can see a few member playing Kool & the Gang's Jungle boogie, the ♫get down get down♫  portion as they watch weekly  ENSO charts.

now back to the more serious

 can you believe that the present adjusted readings as to ocean rising is no fresher than 2 years some even further back since it takes time to collect/check/recheck the data and its been rising even more (not everywhere but the places where earth soaks the water gets a more serious result as the areas were the rising is being experienced gives one a warning to move but the ;land that soak one day all that salt and activity erodes it from underneath and suddenly as in thwump!, the 2nd floor is now your basement...pool or house in a sinkhole.
Remember my statement watch the insurance and oil company headquarters when the move their offices to higher ground

Ok?!?
Quoting 239. vis0:


hi its me reeetaahhevac...
i think "deep, deep" maybe but no third nor BOLD font "deep", not to mention promises are meant to be broken..i think that's the GFS motto during TS season.
oh, tootaloo got-to paint my nails.


whadda ya mean i wasn't convincing i had my hands on my hips!

To my untrained eyes it might be a very localized flood, but in any case if it heads eastward its time for Patrap to get the wet-vac out again this is absolutely nuts. too dry too wet will the TS season follow that pattern several TS smudge years were the smudges are still rich in moisture to cause devastating floods then a few years with perfectly symmetrical TS, remember those TS smudges of the last few years had stronger winds that expected as read by dropsondes, yet they looked messy/smudgy


In other words, my graphic may not be an accurate representation of next Tuesday's weather scenario. Got it!
Nino 1+2 continues its amazing free fall, down to +0.09 now and could turn negative soon. However this region is very variable and could go back positive again quickly. Nonetheless, it is a "Baby La Nina" :P
El Nino seems to be weaker now than it was at this time in 1998.

Quoting 220. Skyepony:


There is some bug that kicks you out, you can lurk but you can't get to your handle. It can last a few days. You can contact through support to get back in sooner. There is another validation bug where you might be able to validate through your e-mail. If not contact support. If you get banned you will see some reason. Y'all have not been getting banned.


Thanks everyone, for answering!
Quoting 224. Gearsts:

CFS showing a bigger peak for the hurricane season.





Pretty active CV wave train from Africa expanding to Florida.
Quoting 224. Gearsts:

CFS showing a bigger peak for the hurricane season.




I think the CFS is still struggling with the evolving La Nina... Normally, during a La Nina, the EPAC is rather supressed, which isn't what the CFS precip map shows - it actually shows a more active EPAC. Also, IIRC, during La Nina, the predominant MDR storm track favors the Caribbean, which doesn't show here, either.
This explains the intense rainfall rates we saw here earlier despite that activity didn't look very impressive on rainfall. Picked up over an inch with the line of activity that came through earlier.

000
FXUS62 KTAE 132221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
621 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016

.Update...

Interesting scenario shaping up over the next 24 hours. Water
vapor imagery shows a large upper level low spinning over
Oklahoma and moving slowly eastward. An upper ridge is actually
located to its north, and over the next 24 hours both of these
features are forecast to continue to move slowly eastward,
eventually forming something similar to a rex block. In the
meantime, deep moisture will continue to feed into the local area
with west to southwest mean layer flow in the mid to upper levels.
However, at the surface, high pressure across the northeast states
is nosing southwestward, providing east to northeast surface flow
across the area. This is providing an extra boundary to promote
lift and enhance the rainfall potential across the area.

The radar echoes this evening have actually been exhibiting some
warm rain type features with shallow convection and 50+ dbz values
occurring near and below the freezing level (low echo centroid).
As we head deeper into the evening hours and overnight, some of
our local hi-res guidance as well as some HRRR runs have shown the
potential for this slow moving, shallow convection to produce some
localized excessive rainfall amounts. Given the still relatively
saturated conditions across southeast Alabama and the eastern
Florida panhandle, the flash flood watch was issued earlier and
will continue into the overnight hours. Based on the latest radar
trends and dual-pol rainfall rates, the watch has been expanded
eastward some to include Tallahassee and Albany overnight.
Perfect America -

I posted on people dying in Asia. From heat records that are coming. To the the southern US.

Buckle your chin strap. And the virus it's coming too.
Climate Change is about to hit the South. They will Howl like babies.
Quoting 224. Gearsts:

CFS showing a bigger peak for the hurricane season.





Leeward islands... the place to be this september xD. Not sure WKC will like this forecast though.

We could see a Georges like storm, track wise... but hopefully weaker.
Quoting 245. HurricaneFan:

El Nino seems to be weaker now than it was at this time in 1998.



It surely seems weaker now and seems to be cooling quickly as well and we could possibly have a Nina before the summer. I'm not sure but I think there is a more positive PDO and a more negative AMO now then the same time in 98 and I wonder the impact that will have on the upcoming season if any especially the AMO.
Warm and dry for most of April here in the NW corner of the lower 48.  Finally got a good soaking yesterday/ last night 1.3".  Only 40° this morning but the sun burnt through and ended up at a pleasant 55°.  Looking forward to even warmer temps for this weekends Tulip festival in Skagit co.   They grow more bulbs than all of Holland. 
My 2016 Soo Cal rainfall totals to date

January- 7.10"
February- 0.04"
March- 1.24"
April- 0.72" thru April 12

Total thus far- 9.00" thru April 12
Quoting 243. pureet1948:



I would be more worried about rising seas than a little thunderstorm if I lived in Houston.
Stepped out for a bit. I see things are moving along here.

Thanks for the offer Naga and you are welcome at Casa De Dakster Mountain Retreat. Won't have to worry about falling into the ocean hear either.

Pedley - For many reasons, by the bay in Anchorage, AK isn't a good idea. The ground liquifies in Earthquakes... I'd rather be up the mountain on a giant piece of rock. BUT NOT in an Avalanche or mud slide prone area either.

I realize arctic ice isn't going to cause too much sea rise, but what does are all the melting glaciers here. That is LAND ICE... And the greenland ice sheet is melting like crazy regardless. I wonder how much effort has been put into looking at how much the Alaska Galciers (and Canada's) melting is adding water wise to the oceans - Pretty much it all ends up in the Oceans...

If you ever go to AK, go to Exit Glacier in Seward, AK. The have post signs that show the year and location of Exit Glacier's tongue. You'll see the first one in the parking lot and then you get to hike maybe a couple of miles to it now...
Quoting 245. HurricaneFan:

El Nino seems to be weaker now than it was at this time in 1998.




El Nino 2015-2016 hath forsaken me so. Was hoping for much more.
258. JRRP7

259. IDTH
Quoting 244. HurricaneFan:

Nino 1+2 continues its amazing free fall, down to +0.09 now and could turn negative soon. However this region is very variable and could go back positive again quickly. Nonetheless, it is a "Baby La Nina" :P


Plummeting, just absolutely plummeting.
@204/BWI- a sea level rise of 3 meters in 30-ish years is frightening. Maybe we'll see more on this in the news. Thanks for the link.
Quoting 261. unknowncomic:


Where would "Bonnie" Originate from?
Quoting 262. washingtonian115:

Where would "Bonnie" Originate from?
From a low off New England that moves ssw to that position and has 1004 MB.
Quoting 252. WeatherkidJoe2323:


It surely seems weaker now and seems to be cooling quickly as well and we could possibly have a Nina before the summer. I'm not sure but I think there is a more positive PDO and a more negative AMO now then the same time in 98 and I wonder the impact that will have on the upcoming season if any especially the AMO.


"If any"? Tropical cyclones are giant heat engines, so SST anomalies make a world of difference. Why do you think the cold AMO significantly reduced activity during the 70s and 80s?
Quoting 235. pureet1948:



Dear RitaEvac:
Take a look at what the GFS promises for SE Texas by Tuesday of next week and see if you don't agree with me that we will be in deep, deep, DEEP trouble.


This is getting old.
Quoting 261. unknowncomic:




For the record, the NAM is a mesoscale model. Tropical cyclones are typically synoptic scale.
Quoting 264. KoritheMan:



"If any"? Tropical cyclones are giant heat engines, so SST anomalies make a world of difference. Why do you think the cold AMO significantly reduced activity during the 70s and 80s?

That is true, MDR and entire basin struggled with activity in most of those cold AMO years but there have been normal to above normal ACE years during cold AMOs especially transitioning to a La Nina from a strong El Nino. There are many factors that can influence activity, the most important of course SSTs. Maybe AMO could flip slightly positive in a few months and I think the latest run of the CFSv2 is hinting at that. Interesting season coming up for sure

Quoting 267. WeatherkidJoe2323:


That is true, MDR and entire basin struggled with activity in most of those cold AMO years but there have been normal to above normal ACE years during cold AMOs especially transitioning to a La Nina from a strong El Nino. There are many factors that can influence activity, the most important of course SSTs. Maybe AMO could flip slightly positive in a few months and I think the latest run of the CFSv2 is hinting at that. Interesting season coming up for sure
I would argue that wind shear is most important, with SSTs a close second (since they are by extension related to thermodynamics as well).
Quoting 265. KoritheMan:



This is getting old.





Not quite KoritheMan. This is the 00z GFS model run. And the fourth run of that model depicting a possible heavy rainstorm emergency for Harris County and Houston. 9 inches worth of rain! Scary!
Quoting 252. WeatherkidJoe2323:


It surely seems weaker now and seems to be cooling quickly as well and we could possibly have a Nina before the summer. I'm not sure but I think there is a more positive PDO and a more negative AMO now then the same time in 98 and I wonder the impact that will have on the upcoming season if any especially the AMO.


Agreed... Even with a weakening El Nino and neutral to La Nina state, The AMO seems to be the big question mark now (looking more negative at the moment for the coming months). Average to slightly above average season seems to be in store. Predicting ACE of around 115% for Atlantic this season.
Quoting 255. Kenfa03:


I would be more worried about rising seas than a little thunderstorm if I lived in Houston.


00z GFS is showing more than just a "little thunderstorm" on Tuesday, Kenfa03. The way our pro mets are talking, they're making it sound like doomsday. Wish they'd quit it.
Quoting 269. pureet1948:






Not quite KoritheMan. This is the 00z GFS model run. And the fourth run of that model depicting a possible heavy rainstorm emergency for Harris County and Houston. Scary!


Inducing yourself into a self-inflicted depression isn't going to change anything. Nature isn't malleable. Plus that's five days out... do you know how much that is subject to change?

Seriously. This is literally unhealthy.
Quoting 272. KoritheMan:



Inducing yourself into a self-inflicted depression isn't going to change anything. Nature isn't malleable. Plus that's five days out... do you know how much that is subject to change?

Seriously. This is literally unhealthy.


That feature over SE Texas has shown up consistently in four model runs today. IMHO, it's not changing. Therefore, I would say the GFS is clearly onto to something, KoritheMan. What do you think it's onto? Higher than normal PWs, maybe?
Quoting 266. KoritheMan:



For the record, the NAM is a mesoscale model. Tropical cyclones are typically synoptic scale.


True. I've seen non-tropical lows spin like that.
Quoting 273. pureet1948:



That feature over SE Texas has shown up consistently in four model runs today. I would say the GFS is clearly onto to something. What do you think it's onto?


I think there will likely be storms - some quite possibly severe - but specific target zones are really hard to narrow down. It's not like a hurricane where they're large enough that we can reasonably extrapolate impact when it landfalls 150 miles away. Thunderstorm complexes are typically mesoscale features.
Quoting 275. KoritheMan:



I think there will likely be storms - some quite possibly severe - but specific target zones are really hard to narrow down. It's not like a hurricane where they're large enough that we can reasonably extrapolate impact when it landfalls 150 miles away. Thunderstorm complexes are typically mesoscale features.


I anticipated the possibly of some storms being strong or severe, KoritheMan. But the real trouble as far as I'm concerned, is the depiction of nine inches of rainfall over Harris County. That would mean a more potent storm system than what we went through today.

Your thoughts?
I believe it's time to get into the pumping industry or at least buy their stock.

Quoting 260. annabatic:

@204/BWI- a sea level rise of 3 meters in 30-ish years is frightening. Maybe we'll see more on this in the news. Thanks for the link.

Quoting 256. Dakster:
 
I wonder how much effort has been put into looking at how much the Alaska Galciers (and Canada's) melting is adding water wise to the oceans - Pretty much it all ends up in the Oceans...

If you ever go to AK, go to Exit Glacier in Seward, AK. The have post signs that show the year and location of Exit Glacier's tongue. You'll see the first one in the parking lot and then you get to hike maybe a couple of miles to it now...
Dakster,

The contribution of mountain, tropical and land based glaciers to sea level rise is trivial. On the order of less than 2% of the potential contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise. That includes all glaciers like the ones in Canada, Alaska, the Himalayas, the Andes, Patagonia, the Rockies, the Cascades, etc.

From a recent article:

Glaciers in the Canadian Arctic, Alaska, coastal Greenland,
the southern Andes and high-mountain Asia were vanishing rapidly,
however. Glaciers alone were responsible for about 0.03 inches (0.71
millimeters) of sea-level rise per year between 2003 and 2009, the
researchers concluded. The glacial melt represents about 30 percent of
the sea-level rise in that time period.


This 0.03 inch ocean rise is nothing I'm too concerned about as regards sea level. Mountain glaciers are melting at an accelerated rate today, but that undoubtedly will taper off in a decade or so, as the glaciers melt away entirely.

***
I'm reminded of an elementary school I helped build in Juneau, AK in the mid-1980s. We built the school on land that had been under about 200 feet of glacial ice in 1918. The glacier had retreated about 2 miles up the valley. A friend of mine was responsible for the water supply for the school, which was specified to be supplied from a drilled well. It was some of the easiest money he ever made. He drilled 60 feet down into glacial till and after developing the well (i.e. flushing away some of the fines from the well casing screen) he had a fantastic artesian flow of hundreds of gallons per minute. Nice work when you can get it.
281. beell
Trolling
Trolling is trying to get a rise out of someone. Forcing them to respond to you, either through wise-crackery, posting incorrect information, asking blatantly stupid questions, or other foolishness. However, trolling statements are never true or are ever meant to be construed as such. Nearly all trolled statements are meant to be funny to some people, so it does have some social/entertainment value.
Concerning the April 12 story about the NWS, the long historical tradition of using only UPPER CASE lettering, and the conservative approach of very carefully evaluating any changes, I found the information interesting. I often wondered why the NWS was one of the few services maintaining only upper case reports.

I definitely can relate to the use of devices dating to the Teletype tradition because my own initial exposure to computers - way back in high school in the early 1970s - was through the Teletype Model ASR 33. Given that many places take a long time to "go out with the old and in with the new", I can now understand the reluctance and the slow move to other technologies.

Given the tremendously lower cost of newer technologies - to the point of replacing any possible remaining teletype devices at a fraction of their operational and maintenance costs, not to mention their loud clatter - it's nice to read, not only that the NWS is planning their final cutover to handle common typing - like this, and it's also informative to read about what was behind the differences and what went in to modifying them, not only at WU, but also at the NWS. Thanks for the article. It explains a LOT of history at WU and NWS as well as the upcoming NWS change.
Good Morning; the Conus forecast for today. Analyst Hamrick is using some plain language in the discussion this morning. For those along the Eastern Seaboard, enjoy your "pristine" air mass this weekend....................... :)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2016

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 14 2016 - 12Z Sat Apr 16 2016

...Pristine airmass over the eastern U.S. through the weekend...

...Showers and storms for the Gulf Coast and Florida...

...Strong storm system developing over the central part of the nation...

A large area of high pressure with sunny to partly cloudy skies will be
prevalent across most of the eastern U.S. through the rest of the week and
into the weekend. This very pleasant weather pattern will include
seasonal to slightly below average temperatures and low humidity. Some
sub-freezing temperatures are possible for morning lows across parts of
the Appalachians and the interior Northeast U.S.

The same can't be said about the Gulf Coast and Florida, where numerous
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast through Friday with a
stationary front near the coast along with a weak disturbance aloft. The
best concentration will be from eastern Louisiana to the Florida
peninsula. Rainfall amounts may exceed one inch over the next two days
across parts of Florida.

The region of the country with the most active weather pattern through the
end of the week will be the Rockies and the western High Plains. A
developing surface low and upper level trough, along with a strong cold
front, will bring a variety of weather conditions to include heavy
mountain snow, gusty winds, and severe thunderstorms east of the Rockies.
Wildfire danger will be elevated over parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and
western Texas with very dry and windy conditions expected.

D. Hamrick


In terms of the Southern Gulf coast, this is the classic El Nino pattern (elongated Pactific Jet) with the cool and wet scenario which was actually missing down here for most of the actual Winter period of this El Nino and has finally fallen into place over the last few months and now going into the Spring:


I have been blogging on here for almost 10 years on a regular basis but interviewed for a high ranking State of Florida position yesterday; if I get the job (and I will not know until the start of May), I will probably only be able to check in a few times during the week and most probably early in the am or at the end of the day if time permits. It has been a pleasure learning on here about the weather all of these years (and particularly from Dr. Masters and his regular crew) and interacting with all of the regulars. The Wife and kids need my attention in the evenings so blogging from home might not be an option............................................ ....
Quoting 286. weathermanwannabe:

I have been blogging on here for almost 10 years on a regular basis but interviewed for a high ranking State of Florida position yesterday; if I get the job (and I will not know until the start of May), I will probably only be able to check in a few times during the week and most probably early in the am or at the end of the day if time permits. It has been a pleasure learning on here about the weather all of these years (and particularly from Dr. Masters and his regular crew) and interacting with all of the regulars. The Wife and kids need my attention in the evenings so blogging from home might not be an option............................................ ....


Well, good luck! I am Thinkinking a career in weather in Florida will be quite interesting for the next 20 years. While the cyclic nature f hurricanes seem to indicate that we will not see the super seasons like 2004 again until 2050 or so, (meaning it ain't my problem) with the changing climate, the past, really is no longer prolog.

Keep you bug out bag packed, your insurance paid up and at least a half a tank of gas.

Cheers
Qazulight
What about Pilot Reports? Is the National Weather Service changing that format as well? Are we not to the point which we are being over sensitive? As stated, "As such, many of the NWS upper-case products didn't sit well with web-savvy folks who saw this as poor etiquette. So it was nice to adhere to the societal norm.” One of the problems we are having is too much adherence to social norms. We should know there are times when capitol letters are necessary. I just hope we do not go over board which this process. The bottom line is there are times when "yelling at someone (i.e. capitalization) is best to capture someone attention.
Quoting 271. pureet1948:



00z GFS is showing more than just a "little thunderstorm" on Tuesday, Kenfa03. The way our pro mets are talking, they're making it sound like doomsday. Wish they'd quit it.


OK, just to put things in perspective: Please add up all the damage and carnage you have suffered from all the doomsday scenarios you've fretted about over the last year or so. Give us all the details....I'm not mocking you, but we get storms in Houston. Always have, always will.

I have lived in Houston most of my life. Other than hurricanes or tropical depressions, I've never had any problems. Be prepared and don't whip yourself into a frenzy...
290. JRRP7
first time this year we see negative value
Quoting 288. CovingtonRidge:

What about Pilot Reports? Is the National Weather Service changing that format as well? Are we not to the point which we are being over sensitive? As stated, "As such, many of the NWS upper-case products didn't sit well with web-savvy folks who saw this as poor etiquette. So it was nice to adhere to the societal norm.%u201D One of the problems we are having is too much adherence to social norms. We should know there are times when capitol letters are necessary. I just hope we do not go over board which this process. The bottom line is there are times when "yelling at someone (i.e. capitalization) is best to capture someone attention.
I agree that it should stay regarding the NHC and especially if a storm is headed towards land to capture attention as these storms can be very dangerous and a threat to life and property.The same for a tornado outbreak as well.As for everyday forecast I think it should be removed unless to highlight a potential threat down the road (i.e severe storm/blizzard/wind storm)
Quoting 289. Greg01:



OK, just to put things in perspective: Please add up all the damage and carnage you have suffered from all the doomsday scenarios you've fretted about over the last year or so. Give us all the details....I'm not mocking you, but we get storms in Houston. Always have, always will.

I have lived in Houston most of my life. Other than hurricanes or tropical depressions, I've never had any problems. Be prepared and don't whip yourself into a frenzy...


You don't know what he may have been through. Maybe he was caught out in a field with baseball sized hail coming down and got several hits on the head. That would give anyone PTSD.
CPC April update has a 65% chance of La Nina for the second half of 2016.

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory/La Niña Watch



Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Niña during the second half of the year.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were between 1.0° and 1.5°C across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during early April (Fig. 1), having weakened appreciably over the last month. The latest weekly values for all of the Niño indices dropped to below 1.5°C (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperature anomaly in the central and eastern Pacific decreased to negative values (Fig. 3) in association with a significant expansion of below-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies weakened compared to February. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained negative but weakened, while the traditional SOI was near zero. Enhanced convection continued over the central tropical Pacific but weakened east of the Date Line, and was suppressed over northern Indonesia and the Philippines (Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect a weakening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict further weakening of El Niño, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during late spring or early summer 2016 (Fig. 6). Then, the chance of La Niña increases during the late summer or early fall. The official forecast is consistent with the model forecasts, also supported by a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Niña during the second half of the year (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 16m16 minutes ago Texas, USA
Latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calling for 65% chance of #LaNina by August-October.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 42m42 minutes ago
For the first time in over a year, we are seeing an upwelling oceanic kelvin wave punch through the eastern Pacific.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 55m55 minutes ago
Anomalous southeasterlies parallel to Peru coastline inducing Ekman upwelling, causing Nino 1+2 to hit the tank.

Good bye El nino.
295. SLU
BREAKING NEWS:

CSU's 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: 13-6-2 ACE 93
Quoting 286. weathermanwannabe:

I have been blogging on here for almost 10 years on a regular basis but interviewed for a high ranking State of Florida position yesterday; if I get the job (and I will not know until the start of May), I will probably only be able to check in a few times during the week and most probably early in the am or at the end of the day if time permits. It has been a pleasure learning on here about the weather all of these years (and particularly from Dr. Masters and his regular crew) and interacting with all of the regulars. The Wife and kids need my attention in the evenings so blogging from home might not be an option............................................ ....


Congratulations! (assuming you get it)

Quoting 250. RobertWC:

Perfect America -

I posted on people dying in Asia. From heat records that are coming. To the the southern US.

Buckle your chin strap. And the virus it's coming too.
Climate Change is about to hit the South. They will Howl like babies.


The Southeastern U.S. has seen little net warming in the past forty years. Most other regions have seen much more.
High heat and humidity are climatologically normal for this region in summer and people can adapt to it. It's regions that don't get heat for long periods or high heat and humidity at all (until now) that are at more risk e,g, Northern Europe and the UK, along with places in Asia and the middle East that see heat indices unattainable in the U.S and beyond our ability as a species to adapt.

Or more bluntly.. It's not the South that will see killer heat waves in the U.S.. It's the Midwest, Northeast and Pacific Northwest.
Quoting 295. SLU:

BREAKING NEWS:

CSU's 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: 13-6-2 ACE 93

If we get "Bonnie" by next week we could have a 15 named storm season.Which would put us at slightly above average.2015 (Which had a strong nino) manage to surprisingly have more storms than 2014 and the shear was off the charts.Yet still we ended up at a average season.
Ahhhhhhh, ol Galveston tops the list

Quoting 300. RitaEvac:

Ahhhhhhh, ol Galveston tops the list


We do everything big in Texas - including climate change....
Quoting 301. Greg01:



We do everything big in Texas - including climate change....


I worry about the droughts
303. SLU
Quoting 298. washingtonian115:

If we get "Bonnie" by next week we could have a 15 named storm season.Which would put us at slightly above average.2015 (Which had a strong nino) manage to surprisingly have more storms than 2014 and the shear was off the charts.Yet still we ended up at a average season.


Personally I think the season will be very big with a 140 sort of ACE. But many of the forecasters seem a bit timid with the strange Atlantic setup and are playing it safe for now.
Quoting 303. SLU:



Personally I think the season will be very big with a 140 sort of ACE. But many of the forecasters seem a bit timid with the strange Atlantic setup and are playing it safe for now.
I don't blame them.i guess they're really waiting until August to see how the conditions have come together so that they can have more confidence.I wouldn't be surprised if we had a active season but then again on the same coin I wouldn't be surprised if we had a average season either.
Colorado State hurricane forecast calls for slight uptick in activity


Link
One of the big potential "x" factors for the Atlantic hurricane season this year is the pervasive drought issue in South America adjacent to the tropical Atlantic. We had a hurricane season a few years ago where the other conditions across the Atlantic looked very favorable but very dry-stable air off of SA, related to drought conditions, made it hard for a good healthy ITCZ to spin off storms and those that did struggled as they crossed the Atlantic as weak tropical storms. Need to keep an eye on this issue come the peak of the Atlantic season:

https://www.drought.gov/gdm/current-conditions





Quoting 254. HurricaneHunterJoe:

My 2016 Soo Cal rainfall totals to date

January- 7.10"
February- 0.04"
March- 1.24"
April- 0.72" thru April 12

Total thus far- 9.00" thru April 12
Totals for my Place:
January    2.73"
February    0.55"
March    1.36'
April        0.24'
Totals through April 12 are 4.88"

Quoting 306. weathermanwannabe:

One of the big potential "x" factors for the Atlantic hurricane season this year is the pervasive drought issue in South America adjacent to the tropical Atlantic. We had a hurricane season a few years ago where the other conditions across the Atlantic looked very favorable but very dry-stable air off of SA, related to drought conditions, made it hard for a good healthy ITCZ to spin off storms and those that did struggled as they crossed the Atlantic as weak tropical storms. Need to keep an eye on this issue come the peak of the Atlantic season:

https://www.drought.gov/gdm/current-conditions

 



Makes the drought in California kind of puny.
Good day

A beautiful 86, feeling like 90, and a few clouds wandering around here on the island this morning.

As tropicsweatherpr mentioned earlier in the blog, lots of rain on its way next week. Cruise ship passengers won't have much sun! Not complaining as the cistern is getting mighty low these days. The water truck traffic has been increasing every day.

Hoping all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Supercell storms, golf ball-size hail possible Friday

Link
Here is the relevant language related to the SA drought from the link below, and then, we have to juxtapose that against what is happening in Africa in August-Sept SAL and Sahel rainfall wise where the African waves originate from. As to this issue, most of the African drought is in South and North Africa but the Sahel has been having good precip with their peak rain period coming in June. Pretty green in parts near the Sahel already for this time of the year:

In South America, drought remains in the northern part of the continent while the South saw much-needed rain again this month. In Colombia, farmers from the Bolivar Province have abandoned their land after drought ruined their crops. 





From the NOAA press release...
"NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources."

What, no weather prognostication? Is "changes in the Earth's environment" NOAA's definition of weather?

Just one other thought...
MAY 11 is a BAD choice of DATE for making this change "go live." What if the new system screws up and there's a TORNADO OUTBREAK that day? Hopefully, there's a backup plan for unforeseen GLITCHES.

Oh, well. At least NOAA will get the bugs out and the NON-CAPS will be ready for Atlantic hurricane "season."
Quoting 310. unknowncomic:

Supercell storms, golf ball-size hail possible Fridayhref="http://weatherplus.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2 016/04/13/supercell-thunderstorms-golfball-size-ha il-possible-friday/" target="_blank">Link


The link doesn't work. The word 'hail' has a gap.
Here is the current North American drought monitor issued this morning:  South Africa is going through a nightmare compared to the US but Cali still needs more rain:
Current U.S. Drought Monitor
Looking like major weather event setting up for TX next week. We need the rain, lots of parameters coming together where Caribbean and Gulf moisture will be pouring into TX.
Hopefully SoCal will get some rain too.

Quoting 316. Dakster:

Hopefully SoCal will get some rain too.
10-Day forecast is NIL for Rain....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
319. vis0

Quoting 214. CaneFreeCR:

Looks like the tipping point is behind us, folks.
yes but i think in the following manner.

Reply is not to CaneFreeCR, but real skeptics & $keptic$

Every new weather extreme will be another tipping point.

When weather has(had) ebbs and flows the tipping point is the MAX of those WxEvents and that was used to compare to other/next ebbs and flows that occurred. Sure every hundreds of years things shift one way or the other (long cold or hot, long wet or dry long etc or cte :- P  -: ) and those long gone by storms stayed alive in old folklore/parables as a way of teaching youngins to respect nature.

Along comes an affect that is long term and towards one direct, that one direction is warming.

Now every few years (months in some occasions) we experience an extreme ebb or flow mark it as a wow we hit such and such number and observe what happened.

Then comes next yr and guess what, we experience an extreme ebb or flow mark it as a wow we hit such and such number and observe what happened.

so on and so on.

Not real, i'm just hyping things.

Look in your rear view mirror just a block away we had 3 significant hail events, not 1 in China, 1 in S. America and 1 in Texas, all 3 in a "small" area of Texas.

If we read barbamz links notice this has happened in other areas, have you noticed the Philippines getting mega TS not 1 every 3 years which is already an active situation but 1 every year, MEGA not moderate they get those every month. Fiji, Australia (fires and TS), Ts off Brasil (pablosyn???), have we forgotten the successive F4s a few years ago midwest to SE USofA, rebuilding to the point that the pros are surprised. How do skeptic$ think Florida would do if it received 1 moderate every year (on an 11 average), nativesun why are you tapping in that for sale sign?

oh wait my fault i forgot you have a boat and with that one can ride out GW/aGW effects and that's a gone fishing sign on yer front yard...remember don't stick hand in water gators as in several decades GW/aGW influenced rising waters will surround the new Forida Keychain Islands.
Quoting 312. Barefootontherocks:

From the NOAA press release...
"NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources."

What, no weather prognostication? Is "changes in the Earth's environment" NOAA's definition of weather?

Just one other thought...
MAY 11 is a BAD choice of DATE for making this change "go live." What if the new system screws up and there's a TORNADO OUTBREAK that day? Hopefully, there's a backup plan for unforeseen GLITCHES.

Oh, well. At least NOAA will get the bugs out and the NON-CAPS will be ready for Atlantic hurricane "season."


From their website, a more explanatory mission statement, hopefully to your liking:

"To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts, to share that knowledge and information with others, and to conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources." Link
The only people hoping for hail (golf ball sized or otherwise) are the construction folks who chase storms to do the insurance work (for the licensed ones and not the scammers who prey on folks after big looses due to hurricanes, etc.). They like hail storms/claims because it usually covers a limited geographic area, they have the regular creature comforts of home/hotel/electricity nearby, and can get in easily and do the work as opposed to tornado/hurricane work......They will come a knocking at your door and leaving flyers after a hail storm looking to do a roof replacement if they can. The ones I dealt with after a very small hail event where I live a few years ago carried beepers and weather alert devices that let them know of verified hail storms anywhere in the US.................................
322. vis0

Quoting 242. hotroddan:

Ok?!?
i should've typed them in CAPs...sorry if it caused a headache, go look into a quantum kaleidoscope ;- P that will calm the brain down after trying to decipher vis0 comments.
Quoting 312. Barefootontherocks:

From the NOAA press release...
"NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources."

What, no weather prognostication? Is "changes in the Earth's environment" NOAA's definition of weather?

Just one other thought...
MAY 11 is a BAD choice of DATE for making this change "go live." What if the new system screws up and there's a TORNADO OUTBREAK that day? Hopefully, there's a backup plan for unforeseen GLITCHES.

Oh, well. At least NOAA will get the bugs out and the NON-CAPS will be ready for Atlantic hurricane "season."


NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA is an agency that enriches life through science. Our reach goes from the surface of the sun to the depths of the ocean floor as we work to keep citizens informed of the changing environment around them.

NWS - National Weather Service
Provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy.
Wet morning here in NW FL
I thought that the *ccu*eather 90 day forecast was an April Fools joke... wow... these guys are serious! Must be feeling the heat from IBM's acquisition of WU?
The spate of recent major earthquakes have me pondering this morning.. what connection if any is there to GW? How do surface temps effect subsurface geological structures and mechanics?

Lastly, thinking about the domino effect in relation to Climate Change..
325. vis0

Quoting 239. vis0:


hi its me reeetaahhevac...i think "deep, deep" maybe but no third nor BOLD font "deep", not to mention promises are meant to be broken..i think that's the GFS motto during TS season.       & nbsp;  oh, tootaloo got-to paint my nails.

whadda ya mean i wasn't convincing i had my hands on my hips!

To my untrained eyes it might be a very localized flood, but in any case if it heads eastward its time for Patrap to get the wet-vac out again this is absolutely nuts. too dry too wet will the TS season follow that pattern several TS smudge years were the smudges are still rich in moisture to cause devastating floods then a few years with perfectly symmetrical TS, remember those TS smudges of the last few years had stronger winds that expected as read by dropsondes, yet they looked messy/smudgy



          Quoting 243. pureet1948
In other words, my graphic may not be an accurate representation of next Tuesday's weather scenario. Got it!





no no no, Sacre bleu! this is what i meant::

    

a big ULL will become almost stationary over New Mexico.
As this ULL fill in it will tap into moisture feeds mostly from GoMx.
The flow higher up will be more from the southern towards northern direction.
At the lower level and mainly near the surface.
Though not extreme nor moderate heating yet enough continuous low-med heating will be applied
to these LOWs interactions to create dew points in the 50s or higher.

THE SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE AT SRN NEB ACROSS THE CO/KS

BRER INTO NERN NM DURING THE DTIME.

BUT THN i COULD BE ALMST 100% WRONG.

(IMAGINE...2 EYES A NOSE AND A TONGUE STICKING OUT)


notice the NEW lower case periods. [|sarcasm
Thank for the translation/reply pureet1948 
Now please go paint a scene of healthy coral so future children can see what they looked like.
326. vis0

Quoting 257. HurricaneHunterJoe:



El Nino 2015-2016 hath forsaken me so. Was hoping for much more.
Remember the GW/aGW, the fall from the nino highs all this could mean instead of just nuetral to La Nina, maybe as we head towards ENSO neutral you get some drops and due to aGW/GW a lite La Nina might even be a tomboy... (La Muchachota?) (no Dakstar not the Michelin man) ...and bring you moisture.
Our crazy world -


Rhapsody in Blue

Rhapsody in Blue is a 1924 musical composition by American composer George Gershwin for solo piano and jazz band, which combines elements of classical music with jazz-influenced effects.

Commissioned by bandleader Paul Whiteman, the composition was orchestrated by Ferde Grofé several times, including the original 1924 scoring, "theater orchestra" setting published in 1926, and the symphony orchestra scoring published in 1942, though completed earlier. The piece received its premiere in the concert, An Experiment in Modern Music, which was held on February 12, 1924, in Aeolian Hall, New York, by Whiteman and his band with Gershwin playing the piano.


Link
Just a reminder , there are bangs of hammers. That contain Palin's total brain power.