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Nuclear winter revisited

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:00 PM GMT on April 10, 2009

In the 1980s and early 1990s, a series of scientific papers published by Soviet scientists and Western scientists (including prominent scientists Dr. Carl Sagan, host of the PBS "Cosmos" TV series, and Nobel Prize winner Paul Crutzen) laid out the dire consequences on global climate of a major nuclear exchange between the U.S. and Soviet Union. The nuclear explosions would send massive clouds of dust high into the stratosphere, blocking so much sunlight that a nuclear winter would result. Global temperatures would plunge 20°C to 40°C for several months, and remain 2-6°C lower for 1-3 years. Up to 70% of the Earth's protective stratospheric ozone layer would be destroyed, allowing huge doses of ultraviolet light to reach the surface. This UV light would kill much of the marine life that forms the basis of the food chain, resulting in the collapse many fisheries and the starvation of the people and animals that depend it. The UV light would also blind huge numbers of animals, who would then wander sightlessly and starve. The cold and dust would create widespread crop failures and global famine, killing billions of people who did not die in the nuclear explosions. The "nuclear winter" papers were widely credited with helping lead to the nuclear arms reduction treaties of the 1990s, as it was clear that we risked catastrophic global climate change in the event of a full-scale nuclear war.

Even a limited nuclear exchange can cause a climate disaster
Well, it turns out that this portrayal of nuclear winter was overly optimistic, according to a series of papers published over the past few years by Brian Toon of the University of Colorado, Alan Robock of Rutgers University, and Rich Turco of UCLA. Their most recent paper, a December 2008 study titled, "Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War", concludes that "1980s predictions of nuclear winter effects were, if anything, underestimates". Furthermore, they assert that even a limited nuclear war poses a significant threat to Earth's climate. The scientists used a sophisticated atmospheric/oceanic climate model that had a good track record simulating the cooling effects of past major volcanic eruptions, such as the Philippines' Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. The scientists injected five terragrams (Tg) of soot particles into the model atmosphere over Pakistan in May of 2006. This amount of smoke, they argued, would be the likely result of the cities burned up by a limited nuclear war involving 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs in the region. India and Pakistan are thought to have 109 to 172 nuclear weapons of unknown yield.


Figure 1. Global average temperature departure from normal since 1880 (top) and A.D. 1000 (bottom) in black, and those projected after a limited nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India of 100 Hiroshima-sized weapons in 2006 (in red). Temperatures are forecast to plunge 1.2°C (2.2°F) after such a war, reaching levels colder than anything seen in the past 1000 years. The 1815 eruption of Tambora in Indonesia produced a similar cooling, and led to the notorious "Year Without a Summer". Image credit: "Climatic consequences of a regional nuclear conflict" by Robock et al., Atmospheric chemistry and Physics, 7, 2003-2012, 2007.

The intense heat generated by the burning cities in the models' simulations lofted black smoke high into the stratosphere, where there is no rain to rain out the particles. The black smoke absorbed far more solar radiation than the brighter sulfuric acid aerosol particles emitted by volcanic eruptions. This caused the smoke to heat the surrounding stratospheric air by 30°C, resulting in stronger upward motion of the smoke particles higher into the stratosphere. As a result, the smoke stayed at significant levels for over a decade (by contrast, highly reflective volcanic aerosol particles do not absorb solar radiation and create such circulations, and only stay in the stratosphere 1-2 years). The black soot blocked sunlight, resulting in global cooling of over 1.2°C (2.2°F) at the surface for two years, and 0.5°C (0.9°F) for more than a decade (Figures 1 and 2). Precipitation fell up to 9% globally, and was reduced by 40% in the Asian monsoon regions.

This magnitude of this cooling would bring about the coldest temperatures observed on the globe in over 1000 years (Figure 1). The growing season would shorten by 10-30 days over much of the globe, resulting in widespread crop failures. The effects would be similar to what happened after the greatest volcanic eruption in historic times, the 1815 Tambora eruption in Indonesia. This cooling from this eruption triggered the infamous Year Without a Summer in 1816 in the Northern Hemisphere, when killing frosts disrupted agriculture every month of the summer in New England, creating terrible hardship. Exceptionally cold and wet weather in Europe triggered widespread harvest failures, resulting in famine and economic collapse. However, the cooling effect of this eruption only lasted about a year. Cooling from a limited nuclear exchange would create two to three consecutive "Years Without a Summer", and over a decade of significantly reduced crop yields. The authors found that the smoke in the stratosphere causes a 20% reduction in Earth's protective ozone layer, with losses of 25-45% over the mid-latitudes where the majority of Earth's population lives, and 50-70% ozone loss at northern high latitude regions such as Scandinavia, Alaska, and northern Canada. A massive increase in ultraviolet radiation at the surface would result, capable of causing widespread and severe damage to plants and animals. Thus, even a limited nuclear exchange could trigger severe global climate change capable of causing economic chaos and widespread starvation.


Figure 2. Top: Time variation of global average surface air temperature and precipitation for a limited nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India of 100 Hiroshima-sized weapons, assuming they inject 5 Tg of Black Carbon (BC) into the stratosphere. The global average precipitation is 3 mm/yr, so the changes in years 2-4 represent a 9% global average reduction in precipitation. Bottom: Time variation of sunlight (shortwave radiation) at the surface, in watts per meter squared, due to the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (blue line) and the limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan (black line). The effects of a limited nuclear war are far more severe and long lasting than the eruption of Pinatubo, the greatest eruption of the 20th century. Image credit: "Climatic consequences of a regional nuclear conflict" by Robock et al., Atmospheric chemistry and Physics, 7, 2003-2012, 2007.

Climate change and the Doomsday Clock
It is sobering to realize that the nuclear weapons used in the study represented only 0.3% of the world's total nuclear arsenal of 26,000 warheads. Fortunately, significant progress was made in the 1990s and 2000s to reduce the threat of nuclear war. If the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) is fully implemented by the U.S. and Russia as planned, by 2012 the world's stockpile of nuclear weapons will be just 6% of the 70,000 warheads that existed at the peak of the cold war in 1986. However, the threat of a more limited regional nuclear war has increased in recent decades, since more countries have been joining the nuclear club--an average of one country every five years. The 2007 move by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to move the hands of their Doomsday Clock two minutes closer to midnight--the figurative end of civilization--helped call attention to this increased threat. In addition, they also mentioned climate change for the first time as part of the rationale for moving the clock closer to midnight. I believe that climate change does not pose an immediate threat to civilization--at least for the next 20 years or so--and there is still time to significantly reduce the threat of "doomsday" levels of climate change to civilization if strong action is taken in the next 20 years to cut carbon emissions. Thus, setting the hands of the clock closer to midnight because of climate change is probably premature. However, climate change triggered by a limited nuclear war is a whole different situation. The twin disasters of a limited nuclear war, coupled with the devastating global climate change it could wreak, should remind us that there is no such thing as a small scale nuclear war. Even a limited nuclear war is a huge threat to Earth's climate. Thus, there is no cause more important to work for than peace, so, this Easter weekend, I plan on making myself--and thus the world--more peaceful.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting StormW:
Just dropping in to say "Happy Easter"!


And to you as well. :)
These fronts barely help the drought here in FL. Florida depends too much on air mass thunderstorms during the summer..

They alwtys rapidly undergo frontolysis when they reach central FL
Quoting StormW:
Just dropping in to say "Happy Easter"!
and too yours as well
Isn't a cool front supposed to move through so. fla. later this week...bringing slightly milder temps. and a chance of t-storms?
Happy Easter to you too Storm!

Waiting for the weather to come...turned off the sprinkers too - generaly I am the one with the sprinklers on during a heavy t-storm...duh.

Have a great night!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Isn't a cool front supposed to move through so. fla. later this week...bringing slightly milder temps. and a chance of t-storms?


Yes, but I doubt it will be a drought-buster
Awwwwwwwwwwwwwww - NO MORE GLOBAL WARMING CRAPOLOA !!!!!!
508. JRRP
Quoting searcher14:
Awwwwwwwwwwwwwww - NO MORE GLOBAL WARMING CRAPOLOA !!!!!!









?
This kid is great role model for the youths who wants to be a storm chaser.


It is not even hurricane season yet, and trolls are already running rampant.
Who's a troll?
Quoting futuremet:
It is not even hurricane season yet, and trolls are already running rampant.


Ya it's a shame they have to come in here this early.
lol...the worst is yet to come futuremet!!!!
Try this, It is actually a real product. Check the policelink site -- Never knew that, hu.




Police link products
Quoting melwerle:
Who's a troll?


Searcher14
A troll is someone who purposely posts an incendiary post just to rile up other bloggers. It usually is a post that defies common sense and logic.
Reiterated rule of thumb from a newbie.

If you don't give someone the power to bother you, they can't.

Quoting searcher14:
AND THE POLL WINNER IS !!!

Any recent warming is most likely natural. Human input of CO2 has very little to do with it. Solar, naturally varying water vapor, and similar variables can explain most or all of the climate changes. Projections based on Global Climate Models are unreliable because these are based on too many assumptions and unreliable datasets.

Really cause i checked the polls and it says "Yes, human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for global warming." scored 55+% and if you add up the percentages of the poll you quoted nearly 55% say humans have something to do with global warming
As we get into hurricane season, particularly the heart of it, the trolls will become much more widespread. I get the feeling I'm going to be utilizing my ignore feature a lot this year...yet again. >_>
trolls don't bother me...just add them to my ignore list and poof...still enjoying and learning...
What really gets me are the bloggers who fall for the bait!
I think we have fallen for the bait Geoffrey

Look at all the trauma his comment caused.......
Quoting futuremet:
I think we have fallen for the bait Geoffrey

Look at all the trauma his comment caused.......

yeah I think I fell for the bait
AND THE POLL WINNER IS !!!

Any recent warming is most likely natural. Human input of CO2 has very little to do with it. Solar, naturally varying water vapor, and similar variables can explain most or all of the climate changes. Projections based on Global Climate Models are unreliable because these are based on too many assumptions and unreliable datasets.
At least his posts were deleted.

My favorite troll last year was eddye if anyone remembers him you'll know why :).
Quoting searcher14:
AND THE POLL WINNER IS !!!

Any recent warming is most likely natural. Human input of CO2 has very little to do with it. Solar, naturally varying water vapor, and similar variables can explain most or all of the climate changes. Projections based on Global Climate Models are unreliable because these are based on too many assumptions and unreliable datasets.

Wow it's like you didn't even read my post and restated yourself to make me mad
good ole eddye...this storm is going to hit so. fla. and cancel school!
lol

he was a funny troll...

He is one of the few trolls that was never banned. He just comes in once in a while and say "it will hit florida"
Haha, eddye he always wanted a storm to hit south florida so he would get off school lol.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
good ole eddye...this storm is going to hit so. fla. and cancel school!


xD. I iggied him after he said school was canceled in Dade county for 2 days during Ike, which was false. I may put em back on if he comes back just for a while for old times :D.
how about those trolls that like to use others user names by adding a extra letter or num they are the best ones like we can'nt tell the difference or something
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how about those trolls that like to use others user names by adding a extra letter or num they are the best ones like we can'nt tell the difference or something


Like stormtop,stormkat , lmao stormkat weather service.lol
i guess with hurricane season approaching so is troll season

i like this season is a bust crowd two days after the start if theres not a cane tearing up the atlantic that the season is a bust
Lets not forget JFV...he should be in the WU Hall of Fame!
535. beell
Very large supercell in Mississippi.
Photobucket
Jackson MS SRV
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Lets not forget JFV...he should be in the WU Hall of Fame!


How are you doing today sir. LMAO
What is your opinion sir.
Keeper..if a storm doesn't hit their area..it is a bust...No matter how many are affected elsewhere. Sad commentary.
Quoting hahaguy:


Like stormtop,stormkat , lmao stormkat weather service.lol


XD

Yeah, stormkat is pretty hilarious. If he comes back with different handles this year, I'm not sure I want to ignore him. He's just too amusing. :)
539. GBlet
We iggied searcher yesterday for telling Jeff how run his blog...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Lets not forget JFV...he should be in the WU Hall of Fame!


Hall of Shame is more like it. He had us planning an online baby shower then in tears (well maybe just a few of us emotional female types) over the premature birth.
Quoting hahaguy:


How are you doing today sir. LMAO
What is your opinion sir.


Let's not forget:

That wave over Senegal has some impressive convection. Or does it? StormW, can you confirm if I'm right, sir? This is what I see, but I want your insight!
Quoting RMM34667:


Hall of Shame is more like it. He had us planning an online baby shower then in tears (well maybe just a few of us emotional female types) over the premature birth.


Ditto - I preferred not to even see his initials
Nice tie and jacket, Jeff. Lot better than that cruddy t-shirt. But the global warming blogs are still crap.
Yeah I'll take Amanda anyday. It was amusing to watch the males all trip over themselves to gain her favor.. that was entertaining!!!
The current (April 9) issue of Nature mentions (page 682) a study ("Nature Geosci. doi:10.1038/ngeo477 (2009)") that found that the amount of lightning peaked about a day before the peak intensity of cat 4 & 5 hurricanes. If this is confirmed it would be very useful for forecasting.
I don't remember eddye I don't know why I didn't pay attention to him apparently he became Amanda then blew up at everyone when he didn't get attention then never came back, his post seems a little to much like reality TV it was scary
Quoting RMM34667:
Yeah I'll take Amanda anyday. It was amusing to watch the males all trip over themselves to gain her favor.. that was entertaining!!!


Loud Applause -- I couldn't believe how the males fell down on that one -- my mother instinct serves me well -- I spot 'em most of the time. When I looked at Amanda's spot it reeked of being created by a male
548. GBlet
searcher, GO AWAY!!!
Quoting RMM34667:
Yeah I'll take Amanda anyday. It was amusing to watch the males all trip over themselves to gain her favor.. that was entertaining!!!
thats always fun to watch us guys do that a lot for some reason i learned a long time ago if ya want em thats not how to get em
eddye became Amanda? never heard that.
Think I read new rules this year mean a new member has to wait 10 day before they can post?? I think that will cut down on the troll infestations.
551. If thats true they most will be greatful although there are some of those crazy ppl who would wait 10 days...
Hope eveyone had a Happy Easter!
1 more

Kendall Huricane who apparntly was "friends with Max Mayfeild".
The ignore will be with you, always.
Quoting Vortex95:
1 more

Kendall Huricane who apparntly was "friends with Max Mayfeild".


There was a guy during Dolly who got us info from conference tables or something for the next advisory and he was dead on the money each time with winds, direction, and pressure for the next advisory.
http://photobucket.com/images/hurricane%20wilma/

WILMAAAAAA!!
Finally Ossqss...thanks a bunch...I remember the gentleman whose cat would type periodic updates...
Yabba Dabba Don't!!!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Finally Ossqss...thanks a bunch...I remember the gentleman whose cat would type periodic updates...

Wasn't that ivansurvivor
Haha..sorry if I am repeating myself..Wilma was the worst storm I ever went through..tore my roof off and I wound up living in a motel for three months...Coming in from the west, I never thought it would be that bad.
That's him Haha...Had somewhat of a temper if I remember correctly...
Rank Hurricane Season Min. pressure
mbar (hPa)
1 Wilma 2005 882
2 Gilbert 1988 888
3 "Labor Day" 1935 892
4 Rita 2005 895
5 Allen 1980 899
6 Katrina 2005 902
7 Camille 1969 905
Mitch 1998 905
Dean 2007 905
10 "Cuba" 1924 910
Ivan 2004 910

I really don't want to see a Wilma at the end of the cone of uncertain death again! That was indeed scary seeing the 80 or whatever millibar drop in a nights sleep. ë¿ë

WPB, good deal.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Haha..sorry if I am repeating myself..Wilma was the worst storm I ever went through..tore my roof off and I wound up living in a motel for three months...Coming in from the west, I never thought it would be that bad.


We got it bad in Port st lucie , but not as bad as you guys down to the south. Her bad side was way more intense than the front side.

Do you know what ever happened to him Geoffery ?
No Haha...I debated him online...he sent me a nasty email...and that was the last I heard from him.
Quoting Cotillion:
Great news on the freed captain.

Any names jump out at people for this year?
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda.

Previous years in use: 1979, 1985, 1991, 1997, 2003.

Only 1997 has not had a name retired.

When in 1979, the names were as follows:
Ana, Bob, Claudette, David, Elena, Frederic, Gloria, Henri, Isabel, Juan, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda.

How time changes things... (Incidentally, this was the first time that male names were introduced.)



fred,odette and peter!!!!
Hey Haha, did you see the weather in Philly today? It blew the Fyers to Pit -- Home Ice. Please note: this is actually weather related. :)
The name that would really bother me would be " Wanda" for the simple reason its last on the list. Don't want to go there at alllllllll!
Quoting Ossqss:
Hey Haha, did you see the weather in Philly today? It blew the Fyers to Pit -- Home Ice. Please note: this is actually weather related. :)


Ya i did funny stuff lol
Quoting Ossqss:
Rank Hurricane Season Min. pressure
mbar (hPa)
1 Wilma 2005 882
2 Gilbert 1988 888
3 "Labor Day" 1935 892
4 Rita 2005 895
5 Allen 1980 899
6 Katrina 2005 902
7 Camille 1969 905
Mitch 1998 905
Dean 2007 905
10 "Cuba" 1924 910
Ivan 2004 910

I really don't want to see a Wilma at the end of the cone of uncertain death again! That was indeed scary seeing the 80 or whatever millibar drop in a nights sleep. ë¿ë

WPB, good deal.


Dean was scary watching too!
Ida scares the crap out of me.
Category 5 Hurricane Isabel which hit me square in the chest (not being illiterate either) is replaced by Ida.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ida scares the crap out of me.
Category 5 Hurricane Isabel which hit me square in the chest (not being illiterate either) is replaced by Ida.


Next year comes all the names from 2004, a lot names replaced. should be interesting.
I'm looking for instructions on how to post a pic. when click image it's looking for an URL. anyone got a link on HOW to post a pic? thanks
Hurricane Isabel..

Quoting RMM34667:
I'm looking for instructions on how to post a pic. when click image it's looking for an URL. anyone got a link on HOW to post a pic? thanks


Here ya go.
Link
Perfect. thanks
FYI, Hur Charlie item on TWC

Make it a great week all. CUL8R
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Finally Ossqss...thanks a bunch...I remember the gentleman whose cat would type periodic updates...


Wish my cat would do more than look at me and say "oh did you want to use this?"
Just testing my photo posting skills thanks to Osssqss
Your cat can't type????
his cat?
It looks like it's comfortable on a keyboard!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Your cat can't type????


well when ever he's done with the computer there are the strangest searches going on. And he's LAZY!
lol...better check your phone bill too!
looks like the end of the night time shift...early morning getting ready..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
looks like the end of the night time shift...early morning getting ready..


Ya time to clock out and come back tomorrow evening lol.
unless we talk about global warming and jfv :)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
looks like the end of the night time shift...early morning getting ready..


Night all. Looks like our chances for rain tomorrow have disappeared, but Tuesday is up to 60%. Hope it holds.
Where do you live Rmm?
I decided to look at 2007 storms and found that a TS warning was put in place for SE Fla. I thought they had put only a watch.
i got yahoo IM


and it is david_thomas4000
For what storm?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Where do you live Rmm?

Pasco County, just north of Tampa Bay! It's been pretty dry. And the new water restrictions say we can only water between midnight and 4am.. We water from the lake and the 30 year old pump can't be left on unattended. So no rain, then I have to choose between sleep and grass!
evening taz...night time shift seems to be ending
yup
That sucks Rmm....Sorry to hear that...hope the natural cycle of weather helps you out...without the headache of a storm...
Oh dear, I am including this because Weekends seem to go by in an hour so..
34 workdays until Hurricane season starts.

Hurricane Noel look below at the pic.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
That sucks Rmm....Sorry to hear that...hope the natural cycle of weather helps you out...without the headache of a storm...


thanks hopefully our rainy season will start on the early side.. We are ALMOST there!
hey evere one i got JFV on my IM he said too tell evere one that he miss you all and he saids hello too evere one
I don't think the early part of the season this year will be to active meaning nothing before june this year.
605. beell
The southern activity looks like a decent chance if they get some Sun south of the warm front. A N-S pre frontal trough from the surface low in IL intersecting with an E-W warm front over southern or southwest GA. Probably a wave or secondary low at this intersection.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH AND LOWER
MS VALLEYS EWD TO THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL
DEVELOP EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF NEXT
UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD
THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF 70-80 KT
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS UPPER
SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP NEWD
ACROSS SRN PARTS OF IL/IND WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER SE...RETREATING WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH NRN FL AND AT LEAST SRN PARTS OF AL/GA
...AND
EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN INITIAL DAY TWO OUTLOOK...OVERALL SETUP APPEARS TO
FAVOR A BI-MODAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
FOCUSED: 1) WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF THE
CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES
...AND 2) WITHIN COLD CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM
OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS INTO OH VALLEYS
. PARTS OF SLIGHT RISK
AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO A MODERATE RISK IN SUBSEQUENT DAY
ONE OUTLOOKS.

...ERN MS/AL EWD TO THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST...

A SLOW EWD MIGRATION OF 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF
A MOIST AIR MASS ONSHORE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO
THE S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C PER KM/ AND POCKETS
OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500
J/KG.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY
MORNING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS INTO
AL. COINCIDENCE OF LLJ AND 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET CORE WILL RESULT
IN VERY STRONG VERTICAL PROFILES FROM THE ONSET. AS
SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO HAIL AND HIGH WINDS FROM 13/12Z INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE.
NONETHELESS...EXPECT THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO EXIST
ACROSS SRN PARTS OF AL/GA AND NRN FL
WHERE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL CO-EXIST WITH
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.

...PARTS OF THE LOWER MS INTO OH VALLEYS...

WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COMPARABLY DRIER TO THAT ALONG THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S COUPLED WITH
STRONG COOLING ALOFT /I.E. 500 MB TEMPERATURES DECREASING TO -18 TO
-20 C/ WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
MONDAY GIVEN SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONSIDERABLE STEEPENING TO LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES...LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE
PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

THIS AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IN CONCERT WITH A ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT
AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED TSTMS BY AFTERNOON
ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NERN AR/SERN MO EVENTUALLY INTO SRN PARTS OF
IL/IND/WRN TN AND PERHAPS NRN MS
. 45-55 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER/SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.

..MEAD.. 04/12/2009
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
unless we talk about global warming and jfv :)


those two things are why i took a break from this blog
Evening PE.
So, In looking at the analog years from CSU there is a 100% chance of a TS hitting South Flordia this year.

Nasty line running through the deep south tonight.
It's no wonder why the insurance companies are running for the hills.
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
Just looking at the historical data provided by wunderground. All the years listed sported a TS through the area. My research has shown that it's not the season following a record cold period in SFL but the year after, as in the 2003 cold spell followed 2004 but, we'll see things seem to be different now.
The Dry line between the low spinning and the deepest convection east of the Low scares me. I am expecting really severe stuff when this fills in. It looks like Northern Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky could get hit very hard starting early tomorrow. The CAPE values are running very high.

India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 13APR)
========================================
Convective clouds are seen over parts of southeast and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal in association with a low pressure area.

Convective clouds are also seen over north Andaman Sea

Chief Meteorological Forecast (0000z 13APR)
==============================================
Yesterday’s low pressure area over Sri Lanka and neighbourhood persists. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto 4.5 Km above mean sea level.

Under its influence, isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers activity is likely over south peninsular India during next 24 hours.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Just looking at the historical data provided by wunderground. All the years listed sported a TS through the area. My research has shown that it's not the season following a record cold period in SFL but the year after, as in the 2003 cold spell followed 2004 but, we'll see things seem to be different now.


Well unless the tunnels guy has somthing we will have to wait and see.
621. Weather can change in a heartbeat but no severe weather is predicted in the area for Tuesday.
625. beell
Quoting hahaguy:


Next year comes all the names from 2004, a lot names replaced. should be interesting.


Look at the names that have been replaced since the first time it was used....

Allen, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Georges, Hermine, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa, Mitch, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, Walter.

Some pretty infamous ones in there.

(Not to mention what originally replaced Allen - Andrew.)

Though, it's not the list with the most retired.
Round two coming for Fargo..
So has this blog changed anyone's view who may have thought humans can in no way affect the climate what so ever? Pretty sobering what small % of the number of missles available it would take to starve most of the world. The world would be a better place if only mothers were leaders...
Quoting Skyepony:
So has this blog changed anyone's view who may have thought humans can in no way affect the climate what so ever? Pretty sobering what small % of the number of missles available it would take to starve most of the world. The world would be a better place if only mothers were leaders...


Wouldn't be so sure on that... We did have a mother in power once.

Her name was Thatcher. Probably the most divisive figure in British politics in the last 100 years.

All depends on personality, philosophy and leadership style... doesn't really matter what else.
Quoting Weather456:
Blog Returns This Summer/Happy Easter
good to see you again 456
A mother has lead more than once.. Yes, Ms Thatcher would definately be the exception to my thinking here. If you've ever raised boys & girls or looked at history of who has invented bombs including nuclear~ in general boys tend to like to blow stuff up more & I'd say more boys than girls think it a good solution to a number of different problems..
Quoting Skyepony:
So has this blog changed anyone's view who may have thought humans can in no way affect the climate what so ever? Pretty sobering what small % of the number of missles available it would take to starve most of the world. The world would be a better place if only mothers were leaders...

Morning Skypony,
Never did think that humans in no way could change climate. However, I have not bought into the idea of Catastrophic man-made global warming.

As to mothers... mothers tend to be aggressively protective of their young. So it would depend upon what that mother saw as a greater threat.
629

Difficult to deduce that outcome from the burning cities item. The math for that makes some huge leaps with large opportunities for error. Don't get me wrong, it would not be good regardless if we had 1 or 100 go off. But, Neutron nukes were not mentioned. They would leave the structures intact. back to work.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
814 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COTTONWOOD...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT


* AT 805 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A DEVELOPING TORNADO 5 MILES WEST OF COTTONWOOD...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GRANGEBURG BY 820 AM CDT...
HARMON SCHOOL AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF PANSEY BY 825 AM CDT...
CROSBY AND GORDON BY 830 AM CDT...
SAFFOLD AND CHATTAHOOCHEE SP BY 835 AM CDT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN EASTERN GENEVA
COUNTY AT 800 AM CDT.


IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH.
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Dry line between the low spinning and the deepest convection east of the Low scares me. I am expecting really severe stuff when this fills in. It looks like Northern Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky could get hit very hard starting early tomorrow. The CAPE values are running very high.



I wish we could get some of that!
How come only conservatives are divisive figures?
Quoting pilotguy1:
How come only conservatives are divisive figures?



what does that have to do with weather,mon???
attention SWFloridains!!!!:wed-sat looks picture perfect in our area with highs right around 80 and lows of about 60...all that and the humidity should drop for a few days as well!!!!,lucky me I have wed off,and that should be the gem of the week,now what to do?????
I would not be surprised if some severe wx reports come out of guf shores,al area....looks nasty!!
Is the tail of the front going to bring us some rain in SWFL? They keep dropping our % chance. My lake is at a 20 year low and the fish are complaining about their accomodations. They threatened to migrate.
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
KEH~ I think the summary of the last International Women Leaders Summit for Global Security sums my point up pretty well..

"Women leaders bring a new perspective to the security policy dialogue, and now sit in the halls of power in numbers that can make a difference in both government and civil society. Building an inclusive process, persistence, consensus-building, considerations of short- and long-term implications and a talent for negotiation are some of the cornerstones of traditional women’s leadership. The Rt. Hon. Helen Clark, Prime Minister of New Zealand, encapsulated this point in her address to the Summit Community: “Women resort to jaw jaw rather than war war.” Combined with the ability to reach across boundaries, network, create practical change and apply a human face to security, women sit poised to fill the gaps in national and international leadership. As Wallis Annenberg, Trustee of the Annenberg Foundation Trust at Sunnylands, proclaimed in her opening remarks, “If there was ever a time when the wisdom, the sense of conscious and dignity, the resilience of strong women was needed at the highest levels of government, it is this one.”


Not to say there hasn't been many a great male peaceful leaders in the past & I can think of at least one women in today's recent polital scene that is a total war monger. I think we've reached a point long ago where we are setting the stage for doom of our own by our own hand. No country has the right to stockpile anywhere near enough to cause the world over famine for years.. not to mention the destuction to our & the plants we depend on's protective layer from the sun. Risking everything isn't being a super power it's being super stupid. As long as we have a stockpile others are going to demand their right to have one too. War begets war..
Peace people..
Good morning! Nice week, temperature wise, on the eastern seaboard!

P.S. I have posted another contest on my blog!

My Blog
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
920 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CRESTVIEW...
SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BREWTON...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
Last night, the tail of the convection went over us in SE LA at about midnight and WOW it was bright outside. Non-stop, continuous lightning for 45 minutes. It was probably ~5 flashes per second.

Nothing severe there. Almost no wind, no hail that I saw, just a lot of lightning and a hard rain.
644 - To a lesser degree, I think we implemented that same philosophy with the Somali Pirates recently, then went to plan B.

Peace, yes, through strength not capitulation.

Send us Rain in SWFL
Good Morning..........For our folks in the Florida Big Bend/Panhandle....Don't be fooled by the scattered t-storms around our area today, and, a lull in some the activity later this afternoon...The "real front" is setting up just East of Texas/over LA so the best chance of some hail/strong t-storms will be later in the evening over the Panhandle/Big Bend region.....
Check out all the non thunderstorm damage in AL this morning due to a gravity wave.
Quoting Skyepony:
Check out all the non thunderstorm damage in AL this morning due to a gravity wave.
Amazing. I do not understand the mechanics of a gravity wave.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Amazing. I do not understand the mechanics of a gravity wave.


Link

In more simplistic terms
648~ I won't call what happened with the pirates plan B. We took out a very few directly involved, threatning one of ours, with snippers. We didn't bomb Semolia or other wise harm anyone not directly involed.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Link

In more simplistic terms
Ahh.... In Simple Terms LOL
656. beell
Gravity Wave.
Some of these thought to form from collapsing thunderstorms. Like the ripples generated by chunking a rock in a pond. The peaks of these waves push the atmosphere above the wave "up" and can lead to initiation of convection from the "lift". Also sometimes instrumental in breaking a cap where no other mechanism is in place out in tornado alley.

One of my favorite wave clips, Pat-you beat me to it. You can see a little light precip generated by this wave.
Thanks all, much appreciated.
Here is a term you don't hear everyday, and I did't make it up.

Altostratus undulatus cloud

undulatus

Gwave
Quoting Skyepony:
KEH~ I think the summary of the last International Women Leaders Summit for Global Security sums my point up pretty well..

"Women leaders bring a new perspective to the security policy dialogue, and now sit in the halls of power in numbers that can make a difference in both government and civil society. Building an inclusive process, persistence, consensus-building, considerations of short- and long-term implications and a talent for negotiation are some of the cornerstones of traditional women’s leadership. The Rt. Hon. Helen Clark, Prime Minister of New Zealand, encapsulated this point in her address to the Summit Community: “Women resort to jaw jaw rather than war war.” Combined with the ability to reach across boundaries, network, create practical change and apply a human face to security, women sit poised to fill the gaps in national and international leadership. As Wallis Annenberg, Trustee of the Annenberg Foundation Trust at Sunnylands, proclaimed in her opening remarks, “If there was ever a time when the wisdom, the sense of conscious and dignity, the resilience of strong women was needed at the highest levels of government, it is this one.”


Not to say there hasn't been many a great male peaceful leaders in the past & I can think of at least one women in today's recent polital scene that is a total war monger. I think we've reached a point long ago where we are setting the stage for doom of our own by our own hand. No country has the right to stockpile anywhere near enough to cause the world over famine for years.. not to mention the destuction to our & the plants we depend on's protective layer from the sun. Risking everything isn't being a super power it's being super stupid. As long as we have a stockpile others are going to demand their right to have one too. War begets war..
Peace people..


Sky i must disagree with you completely!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1026 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FORT WALTON BEACH...DESTIN...
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT


* AT 1020 AM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A LARGE WATERSPOUT OVER
SANTA ROSA SOUND NEAR NAVARRE...MOVING EAST. DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR INDICATED A CIRCULATION ABOUT 3 MILES EAST OF NAVARRE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS LARGE WATERSPOUT WILL MOVE ON
LAND SHORTLY AS A TORNADO.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VALPARAISO BY 1105 AM CDT...
I got to help out at an Emergency Operations Center for Flooding on the Suwannee River in Florida. Flooding is such a different dissaster from a hurricane! You know where it is going to happen, and to a much larger extent when it will happen.
From a hydrologist perspective, it is a very odd event. Growth and development in the floodplain turned a 100year flood volume into a 500year (higher) flood stage or elevation on the Withlacoochee River.
Once it hit the wider Suwanee Floodplain, the thirsty groundwater table seems to have lowered the crest elevation lower than expected, (but still a big flood event).
I hope the rains today in Central Southern GA don't aggrivate the situation too much.
Bring the Rain to South Florida Already!
It is wierd to have the north half of the state flooding and the southern half in moderate to exteme drought with wildfires.
should get a nice shield of rain over SWFL with.50-1 inches and isolated amounts of 2 inches in the next 36 hrs.....
in that g-wave clip,it reminds us how fluid like our atmosphere is!!!!,that clip is incredible.....
Quoting stillwaiting:
in that g-wave clip,it reminds us how fluid like our atmosphere is!!!!,that clip is incredible.....


That is an incredible clip!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1143 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN IRWIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
NORTHERN TIFT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
TURNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ASHBURN...
CENTRAL WORTH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SYLVESTER...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT


* AT 1138 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR SYLVESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ASHBURN BY 1205 PM EDT...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1056 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MARIANNA...
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHIPLEY...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT


* AT 1050 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR CHIPLEY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MARIANNA BY 1120 AM CDT...
Enjoyed the conversation this morning. Always though provoking. Stay safe, all. Later
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1211 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... BEN HILL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FITZGERALD... NORTHERN IRWIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... NORTH CENTRAL TIFT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... SOUTHEASTERN TURNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
Quoting TampaSpin:


Sky i must disagree with you completely!


So you think Sky is wrong saying this;

"No country has the right to stockpile anywhere near enough to cause the world over famine for years.. "

So by disagreeing completely you think you have the right to cause world famine..as long as you get more then your share of the pie?
671. beell
Later, KEH
Quoting Orcasystems:


So you think Sky is wrong saying this;

"No country has the right to stockpile anywhere near enough to cause the world over famine for years.. "

So by disagreeing completely you think you have the right to cause world famine..as long as you get more then your share of the pie?


I believe that no country that has views to destroy others because of lifestyle can never own WMD. I also think there are 2 points of view of countries that would like to own or have WMD. Those that use it to Protect as a Defense and those that use it to hold others hostage as an Offense. I guess one can choose which one you would like to be.
I'm sure this would work really well against the Pirates, N. Korea, and Iran.

“Women resort to jaw jaw rather than war war.”

Quoting Orcasystems:


So you think Sky is wrong saying this;

"No country has the right to stockpile anywhere near enough to cause the world over famine for years.. "

So by disagreeing completely you think you have the right to cause world famine..as long as you get more then your share of the pie?
Canadian squirrels stockpiling acorns is not the reason why there are no acorns stockpiled in the Mojave Desert.
Cause and effect, not withstanding - we are not squirrels, and it is incumbent upon those who can to alleviate hunger when ever, where ever possible.

Lent is over

EDITED: Yikes! Too much chocolate has fogged the brain. Misread Skypony's original post.
I feel like Roseanne Roseanna Danna, (Gildna Radner) - 'Ohhh... Never Mind'
The resulting world famine item is based upon bad science and inappropriate assuption. Quote

The scientists injected five terragrams (Tg) of soot particles into the model atmosphere over Pakistan in May of 2006. This amount of smoke, they argued, would be the likely result of the cities burned up by a limited nuclear war involving 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs in the region. India and Pakistan are thought to have 109 to 172 nuclear weapons of unknown yield.

Let's get the facts right first, then we can distort the truth accordingly. I was unaware that concrete could smoke so much.

Take a look at how many Tens of Thousands of Nukes have already been destroyed.

The statement referenced is kinda like taking the right to bear arms away from us in the US, so only the bad guys would have guns. It's just not going to happen and if it does, we will all have to learn a new language.
Quoting Ossqss:
The resulting world famine item is based upon bad science and inappropriate assuption. Quote

The scientists injected five terragrams (Tg) of soot particles into the model atmosphere over Pakistan in May of 2006. This amount of smoke, they argued, would be the likely result of the cities burned up by a limited nuclear war involving 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs in the region. India and Pakistan are thought to have 109 to 172 nuclear weapons of unknown yield.

Let's get the facts right first, then we can distort the truth accordingly. I was unaware that concrete could smoke so much.

Take a look at how many Tens of Thousands of Nukes have already been destroyed.

The statement referenced is kinda like taking the right to bear arms away from us in the US, so only the bad guys would have guns. It's just not going to happen and if it does, we will all have to learn a new language.


Dido
There are 28 countries in NATO! I wonder why these countries are in NATO? Do you think it's the Defensive Protection that the United States brings or Lithuanias'? Most people could not name half of the Countries in NATO!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I'm sure this would work really well against the Pirates, N. Korea, and Iran.

“Women resort to jaw jaw rather than war war.”



648 tampa. Nothing like a good scope when the Jaw Jaw doesn't work.

They fully understood that message clearly as did other potential perpetrators of similar crimes on the high seas in that area. Finally, someone did not drop the 3 million dollar ransom in their hands as most others have, hence spawing more of the same. I am proud of my country and her actions. Show me another that comes close.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Canadian squirrels stockpiling acorns is not the reason why there are no acorns stockpiled in the Mojave Desert.
Cause and effect, not withstanding - we are not squirrels, and it is incumbent upon those who can to alleviate hunger when ever, where ever possible.

Lent is over

EDITED: Yikes! Too much chocolate has fogged the brain. Misread Skypony's original post.
I feel like Roseanne Roseanna Danna, (Gildna Radner) - 'Ohhh... Never Mind'


ROFLMAO, lent is over and the chocolate is on sale.. your toast for a day or two... that stick is going to be in a chocolate hipper mode, good to see the KEH we all know and love back :)
Quoting Ossqss:


648 tampa. Nothing like a good scope when the Jaw Jaw doesn't work.

They fully understood that message clearly as did other potential perpetrators of similar crimes on the high seas in that area. Finally, someone did not drop the 3 million dollar ransom in their hands as most others have, hence spawing more of the same. I am proud of my country and her actions. Show me another that comes close.


Clinton would have shot over their heads. At least Obama shot at heads. Nice job Obama!
681. beell
Hey Tampa!
Looks like activity should begin a ramp up over central/N central KY and maybe into TN within the next hour or two. Good insolation within the dry slot.
Quoting beell:
Hey Tampa!
Looks like activity should begin a ramp up over central/N central KY and maybe into TN within the next hour or two. Good insolation within the dry slot.


I seen that Dry slot develop last nite...and pointed it out....thats never good with the heating of the day .....i have not looked at CAPE values but, it must be on the raise.
You can see it forming in SE Arkansas

Quoting Ossqss:
They fully understood that message clearly as did other potential perpetrators of similar crimes on the high seas in that area. Finally, someone did not drop the 3 million dollar ransom in their hands as most others have, hence spawing more of the same. I am proud of my country and her actions. Show me another that comes close.
Others agree with you.
From Al Jazeera
Abdulkadir Walayo, a Somali government spokesman, hailed the operation.
"I hope this operation will be a lesson for other pirates holding the hostages on the ships they hijacked," he said.
SEAL stealth was the way to go. Contained. Quick. Done and out. An hostage situation would have been disastrous.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
SEAL stealth was the way to go. Contained. Quick. Done and out. Others agree with you.

From Al Jazeera
Abdulkadir Walayo, a Somali government spokesman, hailed the operation.
"I hope this operation will be a lesson for other pirates holding the hostages on the ships they hijacked," he said.


Along with the French operation a week earlier which achieved a similar objective, then it's all good.

But, will the pirates crawl back into their hovels or come out even worse? A wounded animal is a dangerous one...

However, since the seals captured one of the pirates, maybe they'll discover a base or two. May have a few missions to take those out, also.
686. beell
Some cumulus towers going up in the slot.
Yep...nice dry slot!


Photobucket
Funny i just searched all CAPE value and the highest is actually in Tampa....then you look at the GOM what is happening this could be interesting coming up for Central Florida late this evening into tomorrow morning. This is TAmpa..

The 2nd highest is in the New Orleans area

Tampa,

I happened to look at MUCAPE for Corpus earlier this morning...3300+! No surface CAPE, as of 7 am CDT.

Nice cap in place...for now.


(click for full size in new tab)
What in the world???

Has this turned into a weather blog?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Tampa,

I happened to look at MUCAPE for Corpus earlier this morning...3300+! No surface CAPE, as of 7 am CDT.

Nice cap in place...for now.


(click for full size in new tab)


Wow your right i did not look that far west....LOL ..Nice find. Great job!
I wish they had done a radiosonde at HGX this morning. I have a suspicion it would have shown ~2300 MUCAPE and a rather low LFC.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Tampa,

I happened to look at MUCAPE for Corpus earlier this morning...3300+! No surface CAPE, as of 7 am CDT.

Nice cap in place...for now.


That dry slot extends into there also....This will be interesting to see if that develops.
Quoting tornadofan:
What in the world???

Has this turned into a weather blog?


Sorry we were sooo off topic. Now back to politics, weapons, and co2.
696. beell
They must be reading us vort,
checked the MCD's before I posted. None.
Quoting atmoaggie:


Sorry we were sooo off topic. Now back to politics, weapons, and co2.


LOL - actually prefer the weather. Just shocked to see it here!
Quoting atmoaggie:
I wish they had done a radiosonde at HGX this morning. I have a suspicion it would have shown ~2300 MUCAPE and a rather low LFC.


Atmo....now your talking over my head and you have given me a reason to read and exist today.....LOL!
Statement as of 12:11 PM EDT on April 13, 2009

Corrected Bamberg Highway to Barnwell Highway,

... Tornado confirmed in Allendale County...

Location... near Martin South Carolina
estimated time... 1226 am to 1228 am
ef-scale rating... EF-1
estimated wind speed... 100 mph
path width... 300 yards path
length... 1.2 miles


... Tornado confirmed in Allendale County...

Location... near Martin South Carolina
estimated time... 1230 am to 1239 am.
Ef-scale rating... EF-2
estimated wind speed... 120 to 130 mph
path width... 500 yards
length... 5.6 miles

Details
700. beell
Aint nothin' gonna happen in TX today.
No shear, no dynamics, no trigger, no moisture.
Very unstable above the cap but you'll never get a parcel up there.

imho!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Tampa,

I happened to look at MUCAPE for Corpus earlier this morning...3300+! No surface CAPE, as of 7 am CDT.

Nice cap in place...for now.


That dry slot extends into there also....This will be interesting to see if that develops.


It will likely be a lot of nothing without any shear...and their winds did just switch NW at the surface.

On a visit to the LIX NWS WFO on Thursday, the lead forecaster said that their rule of thumb for fronts is that once they measure a SW wind, the severe potential is essentially over. That makes sense considering the lack of shear with the surface winds lining up, somewhat, with the rest of the profile.
Quoting beell:
Aint nothin' gonna happen in TX today.
No shear, no dynamics, no trigger, no moisture.
Very unstable above the cap but you'll never get a parcel up there.

imho!


Yep. If they had a little push over the cap this morning it would have been very much alive, but that possibility is long gone.
703. beell
That possibility ended yesterday.
Quoting atmoaggie:


It will likely be a lot of nothing without any shear...and their winds did just switch NW at the surface.

On a visit to the LIX NWS WFO on Thursday, the lead forecaster said that their rule of thumb for fronts is that once they measure a SW wind, the severe potential is essentially over. That makes sense considering the lack of shear with the surface winds lining up, somewhat, with the rest of the profile.


That makes too much sense....LOL...i always look for the collision of winds in different directions....very basic i know.....but, dumby like me need the basics....LOL
Looks like we're going to be having some severe stuff here in GA today...never like the radio going off for tornado watches...
706. beell
tf!
I use this graphic alot..and if you look at the current collision of wind it would be near the Panhandle of Florida going North and South....

Quoting melwerle:
Looks like we're going to be having some severe stuff here in GA today...never like the radio going off for tornado watches...


Melissa i think your correct.......look at my post above!
It's a fun day!
Quoting TampaSpin:


That makes too much sense....LOL...i always look for the collision of winds in different directions....very basic i know.....but, dumby like me need the basics....LOL


Nothing about that would be considered dumb or overly basic. The pros really are doing the same thing, but using the word convergence.
This blog entry has been a lot of info to swallow. I don't suggest reading the research before bed like I did the other night either.. Least I got ya'll discussing it some.

Ossqss~ I thought when we destroyed warheads we dismantalled them, not blew them up in our backyard or something. Any link? I can only find about 2000 since over the last 60 years, all of which were "tests" (well not 2)~ Which I would assume many weren't "the big one". Many underground, some were atmospheric (which I should find the results of) but can't find these 10's of thousands.

TampaSpin~ You disagree with everything I said there? You really think not a single male leader has been the least bit peaceful in nature & that Condoleezza Rice isn't a war monger?

I really think the pirates were handled well. They jaw jawed all the way to near shore & only killed those directly responsible. If Bush & Rice were still in power we could have shock & awe in Somolia.. or the closest country nearby we had a bone to pick (JK). This idea of having WMD to defend is crazy when we are talking about enough to wipe a huge hole in the one thing protecting us, everyone, all the animals & plants from the sun. What good is it if you use it all ~ the effects would kill yourself, kids & countrymen from the after effects? All your defending then is your right to be right & have big nuclear bombs. They aren't protecting anyone from dying. If we have big bombs all the other countries want them too. We have no more right then any other country. Democrocy doesn't make us immune from electing an idiot...
I heard rumors people were talking about the weather,so had to come see for myself
thanks Tampa...I was kind of hoping it would swoop north of me, but I don't think so this time...under Tornado Watch already - just hope that it stays away from us. Been having a ton of tornado dreams lately since the weather has been so crummy I guess I am dreaming about it in my sleep!

Love your blog btw...
Democrocy doesn't make us immune from electing an idiot...

You said it. Just look at recent history in NOLA, for example. Or Illinois. Or Pelosi.
First nado report of the day:
1556 SYLVESTER WORTH GA 3153 8384 REPORTS OF DAMAGE AND DEBRIS IN THE CITY OF SYLVESTER. ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL. (TAE)
Quoting tornadofan:


LOL - actually prefer the weather. Just shocked to see it here!


Speaking of weather, the West Pac's been pretty quiet so far. Latest start since 2006, which was in early May. (The latest before 2006 was in 2001 - also early May.)

Has been a couple of TDs in Jan and Feb, but nothing more.
Link

711
Rainfall at over 3" an hour moving into Panama City. Street flooding a comin

Link

EDIT: Actually I think that is the 2.5" and hour color. Oops.
Well,there is some evidence of some weather talk here.By the way incredible pics of gwaves.
Quoting Cotillion:


Speaking of weather, the West Pac's been pretty quiet so far. Latest start since 2006, which was in early May. (The latest before 2006 was in 2001 - also early May.)

Has been a couple of TDs in Jan and Feb, but nothing more.


Can this be an indication of El Nino forming?
Quoting Ossqss:
Link

711


I guess we should just lay down. Ossqss don't say it......LOL
Quoting NEwxguy:
Well,there is some evidence of some weather talk here.By the way incredible pics of gwaves.


Where? Hey your boys are off to a rough start...LOL
Quoting Cotillion:


Speaking of weather, the West Pac's been pretty quiet so far. Latest start since 2006, which was in early May. (The latest before 2006 was in 2001 - also early May.)

Has been a couple of TDs in Jan and Feb, but nothing more.
I guess that would bode well for us. Just as a side note, in the Atlantic, the earliest storm in 2006 was TS Alberto (06/10-06/19). In 2001 earliest was TS Allison (06/05-06/19)
Quoting vortfix:
Photobucket


Vortfix that box will also begin to extend into South Georgia very soon.
Quoting tornadofan:


Can this be an indication of El Nino forming?


I can't say I'm particularly knowledgeable on the effects of ENSO on the WPac Typhoon season... however, years with El Nino (Like 92-94, 97, 04 etc) didn't have late starts.

1992: Jan 5th
1993: March 8th
1994: March 31st
1997: Jan 19th
2002: Jan 12th
2004: Apr 5th

So, off the empirical.. I'd say it's not evidence in itself.
Quoting Cotillion:


I can't say I'm particularly knowledgeable on the effects of ENSO on the WPac Typhoon season... however, years with El Nino (Like 92-94, 97, 04 etc) didn't have late starts.

1992: Jan 5th
1993: March 8th
1994: March 31st
1997: Jan 19th
2002: Jan 12th
2004: Apr 5th

So, off the empirical.. I'd say it's not evidence in itself.


I think the Pacific is very busy during El Nino while the Atlantic is the silent killer!
Yeah, I would be watching NW Georgia in a while.

Right now south/central Georgia is looking ripe to me.

I'm not good with Kentucky...no matter what the thermo environment looks like.

Quoting TampaSpin:


I think the Pacific is very busy during El Nino while the Atlantic is the silent killer!


El Nino just gives Andrew and Ivan instead. :(
We actually had more WPac invest last week than SHem ones. Just kinda been quiet all over lately. ACE is still really low.
It is a "toad-strangler" in PCB right now....
So dark, the street lights are on.
There's some rotation showing offshore PCB.
Waterspouts have been reported all over earlier today.

The storms are marching one by one, hurrah, hurrah!

Its heating up.

Considering the last two seasons with pre-season storms occurring in May (with subsequent predictions of this happening three times in a row), let's review how often these actually occur:

Since 1908 (So, basically the last 100 years), May storms have only occurred in (NB: That we know of):

1908 (Mid May, Cat 1. Also had the hurricane in March - only Atl storm in March, I think; though no storms after mid Oct. Go figure)
1916 (Mid May, TS.)
1932 (Early May, TS.)
1933 (Early May, TS.)
1934 (Late May, TS.)
1940 (Mid-late May, TS.)
1948 (Mid-late May, TS.)
1951 (Mid-late May, Cat3.)
1953 (Late May, TS.)
1959 (Late May, TS.)
1970 (Mid-late May, Cat1.)
1972 (Mid-late May, STS.)
1976 (Mid-late May, STS.)
1981 (Early May, TS.)
[1987-88 had a May TD.]
2007 (Early May, STS.)
2008 (Late May, TS.)

Btw, was looking at May storms only. Some seasons did have storms prior to even May, such as 1952 and 2003.

I'll admit, there were a fair few more than I expected. Can't really be called an anomaly considering how much they come up.

For it happening this year, there's already a precedent with 1932-34. Incidentally, 1933 was the '2005' of the previous century. I personally think the season may kick off in mid-late June, but... it's happened before, it can happen again with another May storm.

(Granted, did just crawl through Wiki for this.. hope it's right!)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Where? Hey your boys are off to a rough start...LOL

Yep,people are jumping off bridges up here,thinking of people we should be trading.
LOL,one week of baseball.
Just a taaad of lightning...

This weeks ENSO numbers are out. Like I've been saying La Niña is toast. This week NOAA is saying it too for a change. Region 3,4 is up to -.1 this week. It's wierd to see all the regions within .2 of each other..very strange.

The Earth has been warming for the past 18,000 years or so, along with changing climate associated with the warmup. When will "scientists" get off this fantasy of man-made-global-warming and get back to doing real science? Global sea level is probably the best barometer of global temperature, since both melting of ice on land, and thermal expansion of surface ocean layers, contributes to mean global sea level. This barometer has not shown a significant rise in the past 50 years above the trends of the past few hundred years, and is far below the rate of rise of a few thousands years ago. The man-made-global-warming, excuse me, "global climate change" (since mean global temperatures have been documented as being essentially unchanged in the past 10 years, a change in terms was necessary to continue the alarm) hysteria community is too heavily influenced by funding and philosophical/political ideology to be taken seriously. As a PhD scientist, it makes me sick to be lumped in with the global pool of "scientists".
741. beell
Quoting vortfix:
Yeah, I would be watching NW Georgia in a while.

Right now south/central Georgia is looking ripe to me.

I'm not good with Kentucky...no matter what the thermo environment looks like.



Kentucky looks good, vort! (it's contrary Monday lol). Cold front/trough and a warm front across N KY. Surface low to the west. Thermo aside. Low level set up looks good. Low topped cells
Interesting view of things. 739 Skyepony, lets hope the transition to the EL side has begun.
743. beell
15Z Surface

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 244 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN GADSDEN COUNTY IN FLORIDA... NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA... * UNTIL 315 PM EDT * AT 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF QUINCY...OR 10 MILES EAST OF BLOUNTSTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... 8 MILES SOUTH OF QUINCY BY 310 PM EDT...


Look how warm the waters are in the East Pacific.
BULLETIN -

EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 247 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL AND EASTERN APPLING COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAXLEY...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BAXLEY AND SURRENCY.
Hey, look. TC forecasting capability news.

NASA experiment stirs up hope for forecasting deadliest cyclones

"In the wake of last year's Cyclone Nargis -- one of the most catastrophic cyclones on record -- a team of NASA researchers re-examined the storm as a test case for a new data integration and mathematical modeling approach. They compiled satellite data from the days leading up to the May 2 landfall of the storm and successfully "hindcasted" Nargis' path and landfall in Burma."

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-04/nsfc-nes041309.php
Hmm. I'm by no means a meteorology so have a question:

Although ENSO has an impact on the hurricane season especially in terms of numbers, how much does the NAO play in? Specifically in relation to storm track (as I think it affects the strength and the position of the B/A High.. or is it the other way round?)

The NAO I think is negative right now (why we had so much a bitter winter. Though, if it keeps, mean we'll have a scorcher of a summer... yum.)
Quoting Cotillion:
Hmm. I'm by no means a meteorology so have a question:

Although ENSO has an impact on the hurricane season especially in terms of numbers, how much does the NAO play in? Specifically in relation to storm track (as I think it affects the strength and the position of the B/A High.. or is it the other way round?)

The NAO I think is negative right now (why we had so much a bitter winter. Though, if it keeps, mean we'll have a scorcher of a summer... yum.)


Here is something I found that uses both.



from Link Reading further...

Addendum: Ehh, they didn't go into much detail. This is from the December CSU forecast: "Negative AO and NAO values imply more blocking or ridging in the central Atlantic and an associated reduction in the strength of the westerlies. In addition, a negative NAO is associated with a weaker Azores High, resulting in weaker trade winds and positive SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic (Marshall et al. 2001). These anomalies are clearly evident during the following August-October period (Figure 5). Other following summer-early fall features that are directly correlated with this predictor are low sea level pressure in the Caribbean and easterly anomalies at 200 mb, resulting in weaker vertical wind shear (Figure 5). Both of these are also hurricane-enhancing factors. "

Link
Quoting hahaguy:


Look how warm the waters are in the East Pacific.


wow, lots of energy there. Question???

What is up with the cold water eddy on the west side of South America. Is that normal during a La phase?
I know the southern orographic features Beell.
Once we get into Kentucky and north...it's out of my league.

Plains...no problems.

I'm a southerner.

752. beell
Rain totals going up. Approx 3" on this morning's 48hr chart. Showing 4" on this 24 hr QPF
746. TampaSpin 6:52 PM GMT on April 13, 2009

Hey, Tampa! That's a pretty well defined rotation with that storm, with 3 inch hail and damage already reported near Blountstown (pardon my spelling if that's wrong). Here's a police scanner from Walton County where they occasionally transmit reports.

Recent radar image:
Top Left is Base Reflectivity
Top Right is Storm Relative Velocity
Bottom Left is VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid, measure of total water content)
Bottom Right is Base Velocity out to 32 nm

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/4452/tallahasseeapril132009.png
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 303 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

* AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ORANGEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ORLEANS AROUND 310 PM EDT... LEIPSIC AROUND 320 PM EDT...
Quoting atmoaggie:


Here is something I found that uses both.



from Link Reading further...


Thanks a lot, Atmo. Still kinda struggling to make head or tail of that matrix, though.
756. beell
Ok, I gotcha.

No expert on terrain in the midwest either, vort. The corn is as high as an elephants...something. That's all I know!

A negative would be if the warm front outraces the moisture. Mid 50's should get something going near the occluded low/warm front intersection but if it gets too far north the moisture will never catch up to this sweet spot.
Some storm reports out of the panhandle area:

OAKDALE JACKSON
DOT HAS BEEN DISPATCHED TO MOVE TREES. SEVERAL TRES DOWN. (TAE)

CLARKSVILLE CALHOUN FL
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL 2 MILES NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE. ALSO REPORTED A MEASURED WIND GUST TO 48 MPH. (TAE)


Fast now........i can't stay up with them...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 304 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EASTERN APPLING COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SURRENCY... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SURRENCY.
Also a strongly worded warning for Orleans, Indiana:

...THE COMMUNITY OF ORLEANS IS IN DANGER...SEEK SHELTER NOW...

AT 307 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY STRONG ROTATION. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ORANGEVILLE...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF BEDFORD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 312 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA... SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MITCHELL... OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF BEDFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MITCHELL AROUND 325 PM EDT... SPRING MILL STATE PARK AROUND 330 PM EDT... PLEASANT VIEW AROUND 400 PM EDT...
This is getting ugly........

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 315 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN GADSDEN COUNTY IN FLORIDA... CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TALLAHASSEE... EXTREME EAST CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 20 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... TALLAHASSEE BY 335 PM EDT...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 316 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL LONG COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... SOUTH CENTRAL TATTNALL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES WEST OF DONALD...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF SURRENCY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... DONALD...
All in 13 minutes

TORNADO WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 316 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

TORNADO WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 315 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

TORNADO WARNING INDIANAPOLIS IN - KIND 312 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 311 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

TORNADO WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 304 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 304 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

TORNADO WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 303 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009
Really bad supercell headed into Tallahassee, Florida over the next 20 minutes; I'm working south of Tally today but quite a strong t-storm moving in.......
oh shit tornado time here in tallahassee, i dont remember the last time a tornado has hit here.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 323 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN WARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NORTHERN PIERCE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHERN APPLING COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EASTERN BACON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ALMA... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WARE COUNTY ALSO SHOW ROTATION AND MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BRISTOL AND PATTERSON.
Impressive hook echo and twirling structure...

768. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131839Z - 131945Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN LA NEWD INTO SCNTRL MS AS
STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING THE EXACT
SCENARIO.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER NRN LA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSWWD NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EXTENDING OFFSHORE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A MOIST AXIS EXISTS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WITH RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A CELL IS ATTEMPTING TO INITIATE JUST
NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY MAX BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE
QUITE WEAK. LIFT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A RUC ANALYZED 80 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET
EXISTS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS
FEATURE COULD ALSO HELP ENHANCE LIFT. AS STORMS INITIATE...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
30 TO 35 KT JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVIDENT ON THE NEW ORLEANS
WSR-88D SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA OVER A PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD HAVE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.

..BROYLES.. 04/13/2009
Does the blog automatically resize images? I ask because my images look like they're appearing much smaller than I mean to make them.
It appears there are twin hooks heading for Tallahassee
Quoting wishcasterfromfsu:
oh shit tornado time here in tallahassee, i dont remember the last time a tornado has hit here.


Small one last year just east of Tally which destroyed one house near Hwy 90 about 15-20 miles east of town..
Lot's of naders heading through GA too...waiting for it all to head our way...yuck
That location labeled Bainbridge might still be in trouble. The VCP changed the same time the rotation there seemed to disappear. Likely still there.

Changing elevation angles...
Quoting hahaguy:


Look how warm the waters are in the East Pacific.

Look off Africa too!
Thats going to start cooking into the Caribbean shortly.
777. beell
Ok, ok, I'll quit for awhile.
See ya'll later.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...N CNTRL KY...SWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131927Z - 132030Z

CONVECTIVE/SEVERE DEVELOPMENT N OF WW151 WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. ALTHOUGH MAIN THREATS OF HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST...GIVEN
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW NEAR CNTRL IL WITH A
MESOLOW LOCATED IN SRN IND. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED ACROSS
THE OH RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN
MO. IN RESPONSE...A WARM FRONT HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED NWD...ORIENTED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE OH RIVER. AS THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW SLOWLY PROGRESS ENEWD...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NWD...AND MAY PROVIDE A NARROW WINDOW FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT N AND E
OF THE CURRENT WATCH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS FARTHER S...MAINLY WITHIN WW151...A
SMALL AXIS FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE TO THE N OF THE
WATCH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY COOLER N OF THE WARM
FRONT...BUT WILL WARM/MOISTEN WITH ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION.
DEVELOPMENT TO THE E MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. DESPITE THESE POTENTIAL LIMITATIONS...STORMS
THAT CAN INITIATE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF BECOMING TORNADIC
.

..HURLBUT.. 04/13/2009
WOW! I have 95 Degrees in lakeland reading outside! Holy smokes!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
WOW! I have 95 Degrees in lakeland reading outside! Holy smokes!


Thats not good with this front heading toward us....i have 85 in Tampa
Quoting TampaSpin:


Thats not good with this front heading toward us....i have 85 in Tampa

Your closer to the coast, so its bound to be cooler.
But wow, with this humity, thats going to cause some serious instability. Might see some pop ups shortly. Suppose to be 85 though for the rest of the week after the front, not much of a cool down.
Gotta go do my run....but, use the SEVERE WEATHER WARNING LINK TAB on my WebSite for current Warnings as they occur...

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/
Aerosols May Drive a Significant Portion of Arctic Warming

04.08.09

Though greenhouse gases are invariably at the center of discussions about global climate change, new NASA research suggests that much of the atmospheric warming observed in the Arctic since 1976 may be due to changes in tiny airborne particles called aerosols.
Quoting CybrTeddy:

Your closer to the coast, so its bound to be cooler.
But wow, with this humity, thats going to cause some serious instability. Might see some pop ups shortly. Suppose to be 85 though for the rest of the week after the front, not much of a cool down.


Yep your correct the more inland the hotter. Be careful my friend.
tornado warnings here...not a great day. Ugh.
Good afternoon, everyone, and a belated Happy Easter to all of you. I took the concept of an "Easter Break" very seriously this year, and thus spent none of my time on the internett this weekend. In this I was mightily assisted by our local weather, which has been really great since about the middle of last week. I'm hoping the easterlies hold their place for the next couple of weeks as the daily temperature begins to rise towards the summer high.

I found the doc's topic a sobering one, and a timely reminder that air pollutants of the "normal" kind is only one way human beings can destroy themselves. I hope the steps world leaders seem to be taking [for the most part, anyway] will continue to reduce the threat of nuclear fallout, with its resultant detrimental effects.


If this can hold together, it may bring some much needed rain to the southern half of FL.

Bad story from down your way.

Florida Law enforcement officials said Monday they had launched an investigation into a tragic boating accident near St. Augustine, Florida, that took the lives of five people and seriously injured seven others.
According to FWC investigators, a 22-foot boat with 12 people on board rammed into the rear and right side of a 25-foot tugboat.
The tugboat was at a dock and boat launch under construction on the Intracoastal Waterway in Palm Valley, said Jeremy Robshaw, a spokesman for St. Johns County Fire and Rescue.





Pffffffffft. Drak has a bubble over S Fla since Fay he wants to keep it closed ;D.
Cybr, I had mentioned that information a while back and the chat was that it would not make its way towards the carib. Something tells me that the Basin is about to pop in a way that has not been seen in a while. And that we are going to be busy alot sooner than we thought in here.
Is this thing coming down south?
What a shame.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Bad story from down your way.

Florida Law enforcement officials said Monday they had launched an investigation into a tragic boating accident near St. Augustine, Florida, that took the lives of five people and seriously injured seven others.
According to FWC investigators, a 22-foot boat with 12 people on board rammed into the rear and right side of a 25-foot tugboat.
The tugboat was at a dock and boat launch under construction on the Intracoastal Waterway in Palm Valley, said Jeremy Robshaw, a spokesman for St. Johns County Fire and Rescue.





Here is the latest. What a shame. That boat does not look big enough for 8 let alone 14 people.

Link
789. Please clarify for us no offense but your statement is quite vague for those who have not seen it, thanks.
Quoting Vortex95:
789. Please clarify for us no offense but your statement is quite vague for those who have not seen it, thanks.
Ditto.

I thought the front was due to lift off to the NE before it made it all the way to S. Flo?

Added: At least our local guys don't seem to expect it to make it all the way here.
789. After looking at it I think hes talking about the Carribean cooking alot sooner then we think it can on his hunch. Good thing hunches aren't foolproof.
I was responding to what CyberTeddy had said concerning the temps off the coast of Africa. Sorry to confuse those about the current weather situation. My thoughts are on the water temps off of Africa and their movement towards the Caribbean basin.

Here is my thought and this is what I was referring to about the basin popping sooner than thought:

Take the water temps off the coast of Africa, as they move into the CATL and carib basin. Combine that with a quiet Verde season as some have been talking about. Also combine that with a Neutral or near neutral La Nina. Depending on where the Bermuda High sets up shop, we could be looking at a season that will rile up some feathers here in the south. Take what I have just said, thats what I meant about the basin poppping sooner than we all thought.
Now on that frontal boundary, whats the talk about south florida getting some much needed rain to deal with this dry season we are in?
I think people are hoping this can get to us but I doubt this.
Spruce Creek Fly-In, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
78.2 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 72%
Dew Point: 68 °F
Wind: 5.0 mphfrom the SSE
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 29.93 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 81 °F
Cannot believe we're only getting 10 mph gusts.
Last weather report I looked at said north florida to north central florida could get some thunderstorms later tonight & tomorrow.
There was a few reasons that this front will likely not get to us or give us some rain. One would be daytime heating unless the humidity and temp stay at the same level
wendsday has a 30% chance where I live and next Tuesday has a 60% chance for now.
I'm not holding my breath for this to bring much rain to southern FL...let alone further up the road in my area:



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
241 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURES ALOFT AND SURFACE MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST ATTM WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS IS CAUSING A BATCH OF VERY NASTY WEATHER OVER NORTH
FLORIDA ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY END OF
DAY TUESDAY PUSHING THE PREFRONTAL WEATHER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA BY END OF DAY. FRONT
CROSSES THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK (SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NORMAL) AND A VERY SLOW RECOVERY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH PROSPECT FOR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE WEDNESDAY FRONT.

FCSTD SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH CAPE AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT
BUT LIKE PREVIOUS FRONTS, THE ENERGY IS TOO FAR NORTH. AM HOLDING
ON TO 20 AND 30 PERCENT POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND
ONLY 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID INCLUDE
THUNDER WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED INSTABILITY TUESDAY NORTH
SECTIONS AND ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY.

Issued by The National Weather Service
Jacksonville, FL
4:33 pm EDT, Mon., Apr. 13, 2009

... A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALACHUA... BRADFORD... UNION... CLAY... SOUTHEASTERN SUWANNEE... BAKER... COLUMBIA... NORTHERN MARION... NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM... GILCHRIST... SOUTHERN CHARLTON... EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH... SOUTHEASTERN WARE... NASSAU... NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS AND DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS... SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 430 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST. GEORGE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF ARCHER... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS INCLUDES THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA AS WELL AS AREAS AROUND WORTHINGTON SPRINGS... TAYLOR... SANDERSON... OLUSTEE... OLENO STATE PARK... NEWBERRY... LAKE BUTLER... LA CROSSE... JOHNSTOWN AND HIGH SPRINGS THROUGH 515 PM EDT. AT A MINIMAL... HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER... EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

Does anyone know if the cool pool on the west of South America is a normal occurrance for this time of year? Just looks odd there all by itself.
Storms moving northeast at 45 mph!
I'll bet rush hour traffic is moving slower than that...particularly around Jacksonville. Golly Gee...
Here in West Palm / Lake Worth area we currently have a 70% chance of t-storms on Wednesday.
Im kinda confused what do they mean by "Too much energy up north" for S Fla to get not much rain.
Well we may not be getting a lot of rain but we as certinally getting a lot of pollen Weather.com has had a pollen advisory for my area for the past month.
Nuclear Winter Animation

In 1983, R.P. Turco, O.B. Toon, T.P. Ackerman, J.B. Pollack, and Carl Sagan (referred to as TTAPS) published a paper entitled "Global Atmospheric Consequences of Nuclear War" which is the foundation that the nuclear winter theory is based on.

The theory states that nuclear explosions will set off firestorms in the cities and surrounding forest areas. The small particles of soot are carried high into the atmosphere. The smoke will block the sun's light for weeks or months. The land temperatures would fall below freezing.

This combination of reduced temperatures and reduced light levels would have catastrophic ecological consequences. Average light levels would be below the minimum required for photosynthesis during the first 30-40 days after the explosion and most fresh water would be frozen. The TTAPS study concluded: "...the possibility of the extinction of Homo Sapiens cannot be excluded." This effect is similar to what may have killed the dinosaurs.


TTAPS study





Read 'The Road' Patrap. That'll tell you pretty much what it will be like for humans in the aftermath.
I'm headed over to the beach house to do some work...should be interesting to watch this weather event unfold 30 feet in the air!
There's a 10 mph difference in reported gusts between Daytona and Ormond Beach, about 15-20 miles apart. Here in New Smyrna (just south of Daytona) it's gusting but not raining yet.
810. beell
Quoting Vortex95:
Im kinda confused what do they mean by "Too much energy up north" for S Fla to get not much rain.


The mid level trough adds a shear component and the upper jet adds a vent at the top of the storm-just like a hurricane. A quick answer. These features will be too far north per the forecaster. Not to say you can't have thunderstorms. Just a much lower chance of severe.
I also wonder that, we need something to take care of dry brush problems. Some talk around about gator problems already because of the dry portions of the everglades.
daytime heating, I do not think thats going to stop. Humidity is rising each day, making me wonder what summer is going to be bringing. And when our rainy season is going to start.
Tornadoes just ganging up on me! Shoulda seen the sky driving home in my rearview mirror.
Tornadoes just ganging up on me! Shoulda seen the sky driving home in my rearview mirror.
A wall against water
Does protecting ourselves against storm surges require an Ike Dike? Yikes!


Copyright 2009 Houston Chronicle
April 12, 2009, 1:29AM

How scary is a hurricane’s storm surge? So scary that building the “Ike Dike” — as oceanographer William Merrell calls his audacious proposal to wall off most of Galveston Bay — is clearly better than doing nothing.

Consider what would happen if a Category 4 or 5 storm made landfall around Freeport, leaving Galveston to bear the brunt of the storm’s “dirty side.” If the hurricane packed a storm surge the size of 1961’s Hurricane Carla, the sea level at Galveston’s coast would rise by 22.4 feet — a storm surge that would leave the island well under water, likely carved into two or more pieces.
816. beell
Never mind lol...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 420 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...WW 151...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR A NNE-SSW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THE LARGE MCS OVER THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THIS AREA FROM
THE W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF THE MS
RIVER. A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SPEED
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...THOMPSON
whats the status on the drought here in south Florida and why if we are this far into the year does anyone think that water management has not talked about restrictions for water usage? A bit odd seeing how bad it is here in south florida
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
whats the status on the drought here in south Florida and why if we are this far into the year does anyone think that water management has not talked about restrictions for water usage? A bit odd seeing how bad it is here in south florida


I guess they are waiting for the rainy season to come and go from there. But it is pretty bad down here.
'Nuclear winter' may kill more than a nuclear war

The pair modelled the impact of 100 explosions in subtropical megacities. They modelled 15-kilotonne explosions, like the Hiroshima bomb. This is also the size of the bombs now possessed by India and Pakistan, among others.

The immediate blast and radiation from the exchange of 100 small nuclear bombs killed between three million and 16 million people, depending on the targets. But the global effect of the resulting one-to-five million tonnes of smoke was much worse. "It is very surprising how few weapons are needed to do so much damage," says Toon.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy
melwerle

How goes it there?

I think that the Charleston Protective Bubble may keep the thunderstorms relatively mild and tornadic activity down. However, not counting on it. Tornadoes for St Simosn Island, did you get hail in Savannh, mel?


sun going down now and with it the heat source lets wait hr or so see what shapes up
lol @ beell.
Hopefully Humidity goes down enough.
It really bad here if you don't got sprinkelrs in the right places you'll have patches of dead grass. In some areas dirt.
Quoting Vortex95:
It really bad here if you don't got sprinkelrs in the right places you'll have patches of dead grass. In some areas dirt.


Every lawn on my street is brown.
Oss:

I think that is upwelling. Wind-induced and drives heated water away from the coast drawing cooler water from the depths. And I think that La Nina is when that upwelled water is drawn out into the eastern Pacific...away from the coast.

That is caused by Ekman transport. Same phenomenon that makes Cali's coastal waters cold, too.

Read chapter 9.2 through 9.4 of this Aggie prof's physical oceanography book (I really did have this guy for this course some years ago). There will be a quiz tomorrow ;-)
http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/chapter09/chapter09_02.htm
826, Thanks, I did not know you were going to assign me homework too. I will be ready for the quiz also. :)

I think this is part of the equation also.


Kinda points out the unique factors and wildlife around those infamous islands there.
827. meh
I do believe it is dieing out now.
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
826 , I am not taking a test about the Langmuir Circulation however, because that has something to do with that Gravity item from earlier and I am just now trying to figure that thing out. I can only monotask. I am still recovering from the singularity thing.

Patrap~ One thing I'd run across about the nuclear winter had temps down ~70ºF below average for a decade or more. Followed by a harsher nuclear spring where the sun toasted what was left after ozone was consumed by the super heated Statosphere during the nuclear winter.

I had never heard this either...

­Natural disasters aren't the only proven temperature changers. At the close of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein torched 736 Kuwaiti oil wells. The fires raged for nine months, during which average local air temperatures fell by 18.3 degrees F (10.2 degrees C) [source: McLaren].
hmmm still looking good actually I take it back was looking at the wrong area :P. maybe in 2 hrs it won't be or it will do the unthinkable.
Quoting Ossqss:
826 , I am not taking a test about the Langmuir Circulation however, because that has something to do with that Gravity item from earlier and I am just now trying to figure that thing out. I can only monotask. I am still recovering from the singularity thing.



Oh, my, you said Langmuir. Now you are either going to interest our audience or make a bunch of eyes glaze over.

The whole textbook here: http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/contents.html

Take a look at chapter 14 for a discussion of El Nino and resulting changes to the thermocline.
Quoting Skyepony:
Patrap~ One thing I'd run across about the nuclear winter had temps down ~70F below average for a decade or more. Followed by a harsher nuclear spring where the sun toasted what was left after ozone was consumed by the super heated Statosphere during the nuclear winter.

I had never heard this either...

Natural disasters aren't the only proven temperature changers. At the close of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein torched 736 Kuwaiti oil wells. The fires raged for nine months, during which average local air temperatures fell by 18.3 degrees F (10.2 degrees C) [source: McLaren].


I wonder how much warmer far-eastern Asia would be without the underground coal fires...
I wonder if the new administration guy with the , lets manipulate the planet cooler by injecting items in the atmosphere philosophy, pondered using precision nukes as an option to achieve his goals. His name escapes me, but it was discussed a few days back after his discussion with the media, and then did the clarification item.
All Bad scenario's Skyepony.

We change local and Large scale climates with our Socities.No doubt.

But its those Large Scale,cataclysmic Planetary Ones we have to avoid.

One day,..we all may be remembering the Good Ol days.
Before the Decade Long Winter,before the Magnetic Poles Flipped, before the sea's rose ..a world that will be vastly different,and certainly less inhabited



Well we can't stop the magnetic poles from shifting but I catch your drift.
Oh the talks of climate modifications began under the last administation even though they didn't admit things were any warmer... Ever watched planes make cirrus clouds on days like one last week when it would have been 95º? Why didn't I ever see that 25 years ago? Was airplanes really that much of a novality back then? If we stopped that we would need another type of climate modification (there is research). Leaders should consider the options. I hope he went with plant more trees.

I recieved a few e-mails on my shock & awe comment.. (JK) ment just kidding... just continuing the joke.. Ya know.. If it was Clinton he'd of fired over the pirate's head..well Bush would have shock & awe bombed Somolia or their closed nieghbor we had a bone to pick with...ha ha. guess not. I can joke on my blog but the blue moon I do here usually freaks a few ya'll out:)
One last note on the nuke thing. We have assumed that the senario protrayed used conventional nukes. Don't over look the Neutron bomb part of the equation. That only kills living things, with very few exceptions, and leaves most all infrastructure intact so the cockroaches will have somewhere to live. I sour thought. Cooler heads will prevail in the end and not put us in peril. The cost of this doomsday occurring is well know to those in power across the globe.

Link
843. beell
Re the gravity wave:
So you want glazed eyes?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
327 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WAKE LOW OR GRAVITY WAVE DEPENDING ON YOUR SCHOOL OF THOUGHT IS
RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...

Wake lows
The passage of a dying thunderstorm can sometimes be the cause for high winds in summer. Behind a few storms, a small region of very low pressure called a wake low develops. It's called a "wake low" because it forms behind the path of, or in the wake of, the thunderstorm. The pressure gradient near a wake low is very strong-a large change in pressure over a short distance. Therefore, the air blows straight from high to low pressure. Since the storm is passing, this creates the unusual situation of high winds blowing toward, not away from, a thunderstorm that is dying and leaving your vicinity.

On June 30, 1993, a thunderstorm on the northern fringe of the storms causing the 1993 Upper Mississippi floods triggered a wake low that passed through Madison, Wisconsin. A remarkable change in pressure occurred in Madison during a few short hours early in the morning of the 30th: a drop of 16 millibars in less than 2 hours! Sleepy residents awoke to strong and sustained winds of up to 50 mph, even though the thunderstorm had already passed through the city and was diminishing. This is a reminder that strong winds are related to strong pressure gradients, no matter what the situation is. Here is the co-author's impressions of this particular windstorm in poem form:

Written Pentecost 1998,
Castelvecchio Pascoli, Tuscany


Awakened by wind
Wearywondering: do
Iowa floodstorms beckon?
No; fluent, it lacks
Spurt and pause, a
Gustless rush sustained
Unpunctuated by thunder.

The shades shimmy. Stirring, I
Whisper to my scientist-spouse
"Geostrophic adjustment,"
Speaking tongues half-translated from the Greek,
Galilean variant,
Babble of a specialist.
A rare nimbus collapses, spawning
Gush into absence
Bursting headlong lest Earth
Spiral it askance,
Retrospective prophet of senescence.

Shade-trees supine, I shed linens and
Arise,
Dark-drunkenly staggering in shag
To the slamshut door�
Passing through soundless stumbling. A
Severe weather statement scrolls
Assuring end to breeze
Unforeseen seconds hence,
Its source obscured, name
Stricken from public consumption.
Unstanched, the spewing sluiced past

Until sunrise, strewing
Streetslough and spiked squiggles on
Pressure traces to attest.
The tower gauge malfunctioned.
Story unspooled, peers share
Stitched-up passion, since
An eyewitness perspective
Simply isn't publishable.

Soulwhirring but wordless, I
Await a second wind.

� by John Knox
Meteorology-Understanding the Atmosphere / Ackerman and Knox

The most worried I was last season...

Hurricane Ike
Patrap~ Yes certainly something will end the party. There's a reason why we don't have a nice neat history & ponder things like stonehenge. One day they'll keep digging up CDs & wonder what those are.. Hope it's a volcano or an astoriod (after we have attempted a heroic effert to bomb it from the sky, of course..lol & not some idiot with something to prove.

Thanks for playing. I've really been suprised how the group has ducked this subject. Many not touching at all cost in the open forum. Masters may have out gloom & doomed most the lot this time:)
Skyepony, never give up your opinion. It is one of the few things we as humans can call our own. If we never challenged each other, well we would probably end up like pudding. All one amorphous thing without a reason for being. Just my take.

Patrap, please dont bring up that singularity item. That really does scare me.

Be well all and remember to stand for something or you will go for anything :)
The Sunspot Cycle

(Updated 2009/04/02)
Sunspot Cycle Predictions

MSFC Solar Physics Branch members Wilson, Hathaway, and Reichmann have studied the sunspot record for characteristic behavior that might help in predicting future sunspot activity. Our current predictions of solar activity for the next few years can be found at this link. Although sunspots themselves produce only minor effects on solar emissions, the magnetic activity that accompanies the sunspots can produce dramatic changes in the ultraviolet and soft x-ray emission levels. These changes over the solar cycle have important consequences for the Earth's upper atmosphere.
Hey everyonee..long time not posting...but its getting closer to that time of the year again..How is everyone?
Quoting Patrap:
All Bad scenario's Skyepony.

We change local and Large scale climates with our Socities.No doubt.

But its those Large Scale,cataclysmic Planetary Ones we have to avoid.

One day,..we all may be remembering the Good Ol days.
Before the Decade Long Winter,before the Magnetic Poles Flipped, before the sea's rose ..a world that will be vastly different,and certainly less inhabited






LMAO!

Geesh....you believe that sh*t??

Take a break Patcrap!

beell~ That's how all this started. The 103 or so damage reports from Birmingham this morning mostly from gravity waves.. Only noticed them because the SPC site was down.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
StSimonsIslandGAGuy
melwerle

How goes it there?

I think that the Charleston Protective Bubble may keep the thunderstorms relatively mild and tornadic activity down. However, not counting on it. Tornadoes for St Simosn Island, did you get hail in Savannh, mel?


No hail here - tornados late this afternoon though just west of us and we were told they were heading our way. Glad the rain has subsided and I'm hoping for a quiet evening tonight but not sure that's going to happen. My weather radio might get tossed into the street tonight...
Hail, no! and no strong winds either. Very heavy rain between 6 and 7 this evening---and moderate steady rains since.
OMG, we are having a dandy Hailstorm right now. I am used to seeing it on TV down south... but not in my yard..

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Daily Area of Interest
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844. GeoffreyWPB 7:44 PM EDT on April 13, 2009

Ayup. . . .

That was a bull's eye painted on Nassau 5 days out. What DID happen was bad enough; this place sure would have been a mess if that scenario had played out. Talk about 1928 all over again . . . not to mention 1926 and 1929. . .
skypony, beell, that wake low thing was ALL OVER TWC this afternoon. I remember thinking at the time "big deal". LOL
844. We were planning on going to a shelter in 4 days thats how sure were were it was hitting us at one point. Just goes to show now to worry about what if predicted 5 days out.
Orca, u guys sure have had some weird weather this winter / alleged spring. . .
most worried I was ever in any hurricane season.
860. beell
Quoting Skyepony:
beell~ That's how all this started. The 103 or so damage reports from Birmingham this morning mostly from gravity waves.. Only noticed them because the SPC site was down.


I was here this morning Skye. And a nice bit of info you brought to the Doc's blog this morning. And some interesting posts as a result. I was struggling with what caused the gravity wave. After a little checking, a wake-low seemed to fit better-imo. And I stress the "imo" lol
The 1929 Florida Hurricane (also known in the Bahamas as the Great Andros Island Hurricane) was the second hurricane and the only major hurricane during the very inactive 1929 Atlantic hurricane season. The hurricane was the only hurricane to cause any significant damage, resulting in $676,000 (1929 USD, $7.3 million 2005 USD) in damage. Only a year after the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, the hurricane caused only three deaths in southern Florida, a low number due to well-executed warnings. [3] The hurricane was much more severe in the Bahamas, where damage was near extreme due to the hurricane stalling over the area for an extended period of time. There, the hurricane caused 48 deaths.



In my mind this hurricane always seems like the hurricane Andrew of the 1920s; it was the worst of the season and wiped out the central Bahamas. Lucky for Florida, it detoured around the southern end of the peninsula, and it wasn't as strong as Andrew.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Orca, u guys sure have had some weird weather this winter / alleged spring. . .


The weather has just been stupid... its past the point of being funny.
If you live in Southeast Make sure you have a weather radio nearby. We've lost our source of heat but there is still a LOT of very warm moist unstable air in place, and I think these storms have a ways to go before they die down.
I remember calling my dad when Wilma hit 175mph, cause it was projected at that point to hit around Naples. Was like 3 in the morning. I don't thin he slept the rest of the night lol. He was glad I called though.
Quoting charlottefl:
I remember calling my dad when Wilma hit 175mph, cause it was projected at that point to hit around Naples. Was like 3 in the morning. I don't thin he slept the rest of the night lol. He was glad I called though.


I remember waking up in the middle of the night to check to see the latest update on Wilma and thinking she was a cat 2 and saw she was at 175 i didn't blink for 10 minutes jjust staring at the screen and scared the crap out of me.
Ditto Man, Ike scared the bejesus out of me. Times were tough then which added to the fear.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The most worried I was last season...

Hurricane Ike
Wilma!!!

Geezus is right!
135mph vortices over here on the east coast after the eye passed!

Ripped the sg*t out of everything!

OMG...there's my old friend TCW!

TCW's original name was something like ...uhh...progressive...I forget!
LOL

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Ditto Man, Ike scared the bejesus out of me. Times were tough then which added to the fear.



Theres Cane! How you doing man! Yes, Ike was a scary storm, Storm surge of a Category 5 from a Category 2, and it was massive!
Orca...where is your location, please?
Wilma demonstrated what cat 1-2 winds can do in a major metropolitan area.
During Wilma, I had family from Ft Lauderdale visiting up here in North Florida. The couldn't go home for 2 weeks! No power at homes or businesses, but all we kept hearing about was Katrina. I don't think people who weren't there had any idea how devastating it was. When I visited Ft Laud a couple of months later, the usually lush, green landscape had just been stripped. I had never seen it like that.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Ditto Man, Ike scared the bejesus out of me. Times were tough then which added to the fear.



Adrian , now that's a scary picture.
863. Never had a situation were it was that bad, tornados are not common in S Fla and are usually F0-F1. And severe weather.
850 -- your killin me over hear with that singularity item. I had to watch it 3 times to count the number of refereces to the derivatives of the words, Math, Conscientiousness (do we need that many letters in a word?) and too many others. That's the scary part. Now I will go without sleep for another 2 nights and I have a test on a new textbook soon that was distributed earlier on this blog. :-$)
OMG..its the NHC Cone Of Wrath !



Well marked low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal
With a possible weak nino developing during this cane season the numbers maybe on the low side compared to the last couple of seasons. For folks living in south florida here is something to contemplate.Three of the most intense S. Florida landfalls,in recent decades have occured in (VERY) slow seasons.

1960 - 6 named storms; one was Donna
1965 - 5 named storms; one was Betsy
1992 - 6 named storms; one was Andrew
Quoting hurricane23:
With a possible weak nino developing during this cane season the numbers maybe on the low side compared to the last couple of seasons. For folks living in south florida here is something to contemplate.Three of the most intense S. Florida landfalls,in recent decades have occured in (VERY) slow seasons.

1960 - 6 named storms; one was Donna
1965 - 5 named storms; one was Betsy
1992 - 6 named storms; one was Andrew



65 Betsy would Strike Louisiana after Fla.



92 Andrew would Strike Louisiana after Fla.

Was here in Birmingham during the wake low event, local news station recorded 55 mph sustained winds with gusts near hurricane force. I have to say when I woke up in the middle of the night when a large branch snapped off the tree next to my house I didn't sleep much the rest of the night. And boy was I confused, intense wind, no rain at all, power out, what the crap was going on?? Never even heard of a wake low before.
Quoting charlottefl:
If you live in Southeast Make sure you have a weather radio nearby. We've lost our source of heat but there is still a LOT of very warm moist unstable air in place, and I think these storms have a ways to go before they die down.


Yep. Here is the sounding from Slidell, LA for 2 hours ago. ANY convergence and this pops.


(click for full size in new tab)

Now that I look at Lake Charles...man that is funky to have MUCAPE over 3000 in SE LA and MUCAPE of 8 in SW LA. This state is not all that big.
A little gallows humor while waiting for tornado watch to expire in N Fla.

Why is it every time I look at Smeagol, I think of James Carvel?
I wonder if he catches Republicans with his teeth and eats them raw?
885. beell
882. pipelines 1:43 AM GMT on April 14, 2009

In Tuscaloosa, W of Birmingham.
The largest pressure fall I could find...

04/12 22:53 Local 1016.2mb
04/13 00:53 Local 1004.2mb East winds-Gusts to 47

12mb drop/2 hrs
Quoting theshepherd:
A little gallows humor while waiting for tornado watch to expire in N Fla.

Why is it every time I look at Smeagol, I think of James Carvel?
I wonder if he catches Republicans with his teeth and eats them raw?


It's his Dad. Can't ya see the similar hair line.



886: LOL!!! ROTFLMAO!
Thanks Beell.
I was just looking there.

Osgss...knock it off with the crappy photos!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 1000 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
HASTINGS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES BY 1015 PM EDT...
SAINT AUGUSTINE SOUTH BY 1020 PM EDT...
BUTLER BEACH AND CRESCENT BEACH BY 1025 PM EDT...
SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH BY 1030 PM EDT...
nado warnings to my north, thunderstorm to my west and I have stars. Unusual.
893. beell
sure thing, vort-inquiring minds?

Looks like the progressive pattern will continue-but it is indeed very, very, slow.

GFS brings a trough onshore CA tomorrow, farts around as a closed low over the middle of the country and opens back up over the SE and exits off the east coast Wednesday after this one-hard to believe at this point.

Yeah, it should give TX some rain. And FL!
(N FL LOL)
Quoting vortfix:
Thanks Beell.
I was just looking there.

Osgss...knock it off with the crappy photos!



If I had any feelings,you woulda hurtum. Just helpin with the question that was asked is all.
890
looks like that one has flatlined...
886
yep
:)
Yeah, it should give TX some rain. And FL!
(N FL LOL)



Hahaha!

It ain't gonna rain here yet!

899. beell
Quoting PresidentialElection:
What's up, people?


Weather, PE-what kind did you get today?
Vort, Cyber, Hurri23

WASSSSSSSSUUUUUUUUP!

What cha guys been up to?

Kind of a love, hate relationship we have here. Good to see staples back on the board. Cold A&* winter in SFL.
902. beell
Quoting PresidentialElection:


Here in South Florida you meant?


Oh! S FL. Ya'll didn't have any weather!
j/k
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BONNEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO... SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO... TETON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DRIGGS... * UNTIL 900 PM MDT * AT 828 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF VICTOR...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DRIGGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... DRIGGS AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TETONIA BY 845 PM MDT...



Well that just cuts it for me!

Idaho is on their own tonight.

Manana..........>

Weather as normal right, HAHA.

But you can throw the rule book out the window for the past two dry seasons.

Or at a minimum, we have to consider them as extreme (and remarkable) exceptions to the historic rule!

2006-07 set the record for the lowest (driest) dry season rainfall during an El Nino year.

Now it looks like 2007-2008 dry season could set the record for the highest (wettest) La Nina year (discounting the 1998-99 anomaly with high Nov’88 rain from T.S. Mitch).

All we need is an additional 0.15" more rain in the next 3 weeks will move 2007-08 from 3rd to 2nd highest; and adjusting 1998-99 for T.S. Mitch could make 2007-08 the wettest-ever La Nina dry season.

Courtesy: South Florida Watershed Journal
All the talks about a NINO, for SFL this has been a trademark NINA winter and on the cold side at that. Have to see what the early summmer has in store, hopefully some rain.
Can you translate that again for us. Wet/dry got corrupted somewhere in there. Perhaps I should have said corrugated. I feel like I need to put my shutters up right now.

What does that mean for us on the hurricane front. Good, bad, ugly? Is there any history on this type of thing?
Traditional El Nino / La Nina in South Florida

El Nino = Wet / Cold

La Nina = Dry / Hot

2006/2007 El Nino In SFL = Dry / Hot

2007/2008 La Nina In SFL = Wet / Cold
This year in South Florida was

Dry / Cold

Can't really explain where that came from.
my yahoo IM is


david_thomas4000 if any one would like too talk with me am all so on the blogs has well
Ok, too much to abstract thinking for me for one night. I plead insanity. I am just crazy about weather, what can I say! Be well all and watch out for that singularity item from 850. : )
912. JRRP
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
This year in South Florida was

Dry / Cold

Can't really explain where that came from.

i think is neutral
Quoting Ossqss:
Ok, too much to abstract thinking for me for one night. I plead insanity. I am just crazy about weather, what can I say! Be well all and watch out for that singularity item from 850. : )


Wait a minute. It is time for your quiz.
Quoting atmoaggie:


Wait a minute. It is time for your quiz.


Please leave a message after the beep! OOps Beep :P
Quoting Ossqss:


Please leave a message after the beep!


Seriously. It is tomorrow in UTC time. The time zone within which all things met are referenced to.

The question: Which direction would the wind have to primarily be blowing from along the south Texas coast near Brownsville for there to be an upwelling event in the GoM there?

Wow. What a thunderclap. I might not be online for long. Answer in the morning.
The Big Ouch! Rain can't come soon enough, keeps getting worse every year.
Quoting atmoaggie:


Seriously. It is tomorrow in UTC time. The time zone within which all things met are referenced to.

The question: Which direction would the wind have to primarily be blowing from along the south Texas coast near Brownsville for there to be an upwelling event in the GoM there?

Wow. What a thunderclap. I might not be online for long. Answer in the morning.


Ha, the weather machine worked. Nightall

answer, can't happen.
Have to say though that, Palm Beach & Broward have done an excellent job protecting against infiltration of Salt Water, Hence the Green KBDI along the coast.
We have had a little more than an inch of rain so far. No strong winds, although a lot of lightning with the first storms between 6 and 7 this evening.
Quoting StormW:


Oh yeah!


I looked over your blog and I'm still thirsty for alot more weather info,any recommendations on a "weather bible" of sorts or even one strictly about TC's?????
severe weather to likely effect most of Central Florida tomorrow,with the highest probablity from the Tampa bay area south to ft myers area between 4am and 4pm...what to expect:gusty SW winds gusting over 40mph,heavy rain at times 1-2 inches with localized flooding,vivid lightning,and possible small hail or waterspouts/short lived tornado's...this is looking to be central and south Fl's first real severe outbreak this year,imo.....
....interesting low pressure swirl in the BOC ejecting NE ahead of the trough on the GOM psu visible loop,this will be one reason for the possible severe situation in Central FL tomorrow....
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0630z 14APR)
==========================================
An area of convection (94B) located at 12.5N 87.8E or 440 NM east of Chennai, India. Multispectral imagery indicates a consolidating low level circulation center with pockets of flaring deep convection over the center and to the southeast of the low level circulation center. A 0010z AMSU-B Pass indicates fragmented banding wrapping into the low level circulation center with the deepest convection located on the southeastern periphery. Upper level analysis indicates that the low level circulation center is located south of an upper level ridge axis providing good equatorward and poleward outflow and low vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures are favorable for development thoughout the region.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimal sea level pressure of 1001 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.
India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 14APR)
========================================

A low pressure area over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal persists. It is likely to become more marked. In association with the low pressure area convective clouds are seen between 5.0N to 18.0N and 83.0E to 94.0E.

Convective clouds are also seen over parts of southeast Arabian Sea, east central Bay of Bengal, and north Andaman Sea
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140747Z - 140915Z

SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...MAY STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. MONITORING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH.

EXTENSIVE/LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
IMPLIES A NUMBER OF STRONGER CORES WITHIN THE BROADER MCS AS CLOSE
AS 60-120 MILES OFF THE FL WEST COAST...WITH OTHER MORE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT NEARING THE FL WEST COAST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COOLED/DRIED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHALLOW
OUTFLOW...INFLUX OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE ADJACENT GULF WOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASING SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT. WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WSR-88D
VWP DATA FROM TAMPA BAY/TALLAHASSEE IMPLY RATHER FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/BOWS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

..GUYER.. 04/14/2009
Chief Meteorological Forecast (0900z 14APR)
==============================================
Morning’s low pressure area over southeast & adjoining central Bay of Bengal has become well-marked low pressure area over the same region.

It is likely to intensify further into a depression during next 24 hours. Under its influence widespread rainfall is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during 48 hours.
The storms survived the night and it could be a long day for N cntrl Fla.
man looking at the stuff offshore it could be very bad.
Sitting here in Citrus County, FL getting a little nervous. Gret to be woken up by the weather radio.
Quoting katlbeach:
During Wilma, I had family from Ft Lauderdale visiting up here in North Florida. The couldn't go home for 2 weeks! No power at homes or businesses, but all we kept hearing about was Katrina. I don't think people who weren't there had any idea how devastating it was. When I visited Ft Laud a couple of months later, the usually lush, green landscape had just been stripped. I had never seen it like that.
The vegetation is just really beginning to recover at the north end of Broward County. Places like Boca, Deerfield etc were bare for practically two years.
All that instability and humity yesterday caused this, this isn't that strong of a Cold Front,not suppose to go below 83 Degrees here.
Lots of Lightning assosiated with this front.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number ONE
DEPRESSION BOB01-2009
14:30 PM IST April 14 2009
===========================================

At 9:30 AM UTC, latest satellite imageries indicated that a depression has formed over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal and lays near 12.5N 88.0E, or about 550 kms west-northwest of Port Blair, 700 kms southeast of Visakhapatnam, and 800 kms northwest of Pathein, Myanmar. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy falls is likely over Andaman & Nicober Islands during next 48 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 km/h gusting to 65 kmph are likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining Sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off Andaman Islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
I wake up this morning to find a tornado watch for my area.
Ugh. Gotta go to work this morning, after a lovely long weekend. Only upside is the weather is great - not cold, not sweltering, not humid, not too windy, and FULL sun. . . lol

Maybe the wireless at work will actually function today, and I'll get to check in with u guys later. If not, have a good one!
Quoting tampabos:
I wake up this morning to find a tornado watch for my area.


Not all days start off as good do they? Time for preparations. Please make sure your digital camera and/or camcorder are fully charged and ready to document any passing severe weather.
Just before I go let me leave you with

The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas: Personal Recollections of Some of the Greatest Storms to Affect the Bahamas

The author is Bahamian Wayne Neely.

The Major Hurricanes to Affect The Bahamas-Personal recollections of some of the Greatest storms to affect the Bahamas-highlights historical Hurricanes that have impacted the Bahamas and because of last year's record breaking Hurricane season and the record breaking damages that these hurricanes have inflicted to us here in The Bahamas and the region as a whole it is a very timely book. Through vivid pictures of actual damages from these storms of the past and present day, it shows the damages that these storms have inflicted on the country of The Bahamas and the need to be prepared for these storms. This book highlights all of the major hurricanes to affect The Bahamas from 1500 to present day Hurricanes like Andrew, Wilma, Frances and Jeanne and even Katrina. It further states the damages that all of these individual hurricanes inflicted to The Bahamas on an Island by Island basis.

It's expensive, but I'm supposed to have a copy of it around here somewhere. I thought the recollections part could have been better, but when one considers that the only people who lived through the storms of the 1920s to still be alive today would have been young childrent at the time, (my own grandparents weren't even in their teens as yet) I suppose I have to be satisfied with what I have.
YEAH it raining. BOO I have to drive to work in it. There are TWO purple triangles on the radar, think I'll wait a little bit. Not that I can avoid it, I just want to sit here and watch a little bit!
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
6 products issued by NWS for: 4 Miles ESE Tarpon Springs FL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
FLC101-103-141300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0002.090414T1225Z-090414T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
825 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 825 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR DUNEDIN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DUNEDIN.
PALM HARBOR.
TARPON SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE! IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON


weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
7 products issued by NWS for: 6 Miles WSW San Antonio FL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
FLC057-101-141315-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0003.090414T1248Z-090414T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
848 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
CENTRAL PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 915 AM EDT

* AT 846 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR LUTZ...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LUTZ.
LAND O LAKES.
WESLEY CHAPEL.
HILLSBOROUGH RIVER STATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE! IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8214 2810 8213 2807 8256 2839 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1248Z 262DEG 21KT 2818 8246

A tornado was reported in the Trinity Oaks subdivision in Holiday located in Pasco County.