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November Atlantic hurricane season outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:00 PM GMT on October 31, 2008

A small area of disturbed weather in the extreme southern Caribbean has brought heavy rains of up 4-6 inches to Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua over the past two days. This disturbance should persist for the next 3-5 days, and the UKMET and NOGAPS models continue to forecast that a tropical depression could form in this region 4-7 days from now. Steering currents are weak in the area, and any storm forming there would move slowly. Nicaragua would be at greatest risk from such a storm.

Late season Atlantic tropical storms
What are the odds of getting a late-season November or December tropical storm? In the active hurricane period that began in 1995, we've had nine tropical storms in November, and four in December, for an average of one late season storm per year. Six of these late season storms have become hurricanes. The record for late season named storms is four, which occurred in 2005, when three November and one December storm formed. The typical formation location for these late-season storms is the Western Caribbean or the middle Atlantic (Figure 1). The Western Caribbean storms are the most dangerous. There have been two Category 4 hurricanes that have formed in November in that region, Hurricane Lenny of 1999 (the strongest late-season hurricane on record, with 155 mph winds), and Hurricane Michelle of 2001. November storms are primarily a theat to Central America, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas, and the Gulf Coast of Florida.


Figure 1. Historical tropical cyclone tracks in the Atlantic for storms that formed in the first half of November. The Western Caribbean is the preferred formation region.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are cooling, but are still warm enough to support a tropical storm over the Caribbean (Figure 1). The Gulf of Mexico will cool significantly in the coming week, due to the presence of cold air and northwesterly winds. It is now too late for the Gulf to spawn a tropical storm, and any hurricane or tropical storm that passes into the Gulf will likely weaken due to the cool SSTs there. The total heat content of the ocean is still high enough to support a major hurricane in the Caribbean.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) on October 29, 2008. The 26 °C isotherm (red line that separates blue colors from yellow colors) marks the boundary where SSTs are warm enough to support a tropical storm. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Wind shear
High wind shear is main reason we don't get many November tropical storms. Wind shear is currently very high north of the Caribbean Sea, and is forecast to remain high for the next two weeks (Figure 3). However, shear is low over the Caribbean, and is forecast to remain low for at least the next two weeks.


Figure 3. Forecast wind shear (in meters per second) for Friday, November 7, at 06 GMT. This is an 8-day forecast generated by the 12Z GMT run of the GFS model on Thursday, October 30. The Caribbean is forecast to remain under low shear for the first half of November, while the U.S. will be protected by very high shear, thanks to the presence of the jet stream.

MJO
We are currently in the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that suppresses Atlantic tropical storm formation. The MJO is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator, and can act to boost hurricane activity when it propagates into the Atlantic. The MJO has a period of about 30-60 days. According to the latest 15-day GFS model forecast and the MJO discussion from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, we are expected to remain in the inactive phase for the MJO for the next two weeks. By mid-November, we may transition to a positive MJO again. This year, the active phase of the MJO has been strongly correlated with formation of named storms in the Atlantic. Thus, the chances for a late-season named storm may increase by mid-November.

Summary
Given past climatology, warm SSTs in the Caribbean, and forecast low wind shear over the Caribbean for the first half of November, I put the odds at 50% we will see a named storm in the western or south-central Caribbean in the first half of November. Given the recent history of such storms, there is a 50% chance that such a storm would become a hurricane.

I'll update this blog over the weekend if there's any developments in the tropics worth reporting.

For those interested, the portlight.org charity now features a blog that details the recent Hurricane Ike relief effort they undertook.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting pottery:
Nite, Sugar.
(wonders what my wife would think.....)

Sweet dreams all. :) LOL!
Quoting pottery:
Nite, Sugar.
(wonders what my wife would think.....)


LOL

at least if there was ever any question, I could go here and show my girl where I was while she was out of town!
A good alibi is a good thing......
...on the other hand, you COULD be in Mustique, doing this on your blueberry LOL
Quoting pottery:
A good alibi is a good thing......


ROFL - seriously, the dog is running for the other room - thinks I've lost it...

on that note I'll say goodnight friends...I really do appreciate all of you...for your weather wisdom, but just as much for the good times!

-rob
I'm out too, its been fun again.
Stay safe, all..
Yeah, me too, early day tomorrow, watch the sky, its really cool tonite!
action is starting in the soutern caribbean.
Quoting pottery:
Pots Theorem #1

The level of angst and discord on the blog is directly and proportionately related to the lack of tropical storms etc......

Anyone want to submit theorem # 2 ??


The number of trolls is directly proportional with the square to the danger a storm presents to land.
-creeps in-

Yes yes, Pottery, feel free to have your 5 minutes of gloating. ;)

Now, with 2/3 of my sports teams losing this weekend, my Ravens better not let me down today....

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020542
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Not even a ripple out there.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 02 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONT FROM 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND A 1028 MB HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER AND OFF THE SE CONUS
IS PRODUCING NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE FRONT.
BUOY 41046 IS REPORTING 10 FT SEAS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE RUNNING 1-2 FT LOW. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING LOW PRES TAKING SHAPE N OF THE BAHAMAS
LATE SUN AND MON.
THE FORCING FOR THIS LOW LIKELY CONSISTS OF A
FRAGMENT OF THE CURRENT FRONT OBTAINING SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO LIE N OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MON AND TUE.
MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE...WITH ALMOST ALL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
25-30 KT (EVEN THE LOWER RES MODELS). GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
IN SUGGESTING GALE CONDITIONS. WHILE A GALE IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...WOULD RATHER SEE SIGNS OF THE LOW FORMING BEFORE
ADVERTISING A WARNING. STAY TUNED.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NE-SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS
PRODUCING FAIRLY UNIFORM NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT. WINDS
ARE MAINLY LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE SE AND S MIDDLE WATERS WHERE
15-20 KT IS STILL LIKELY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN OLD FRONT IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE RUNNING 4-6 FT IN THE STRONGER
FLOW AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. AS LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC SUN AND MON...WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE BASICALLY
UNAFFECTED ELSEWHERE. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS TUE AND INCREASES TO 15-20 KT WED AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...LIKELY TO ENTER THE REGION THU.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A STALLED LINGERING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWS MAINLY 15-20 KT N TO NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH WITH A FEW
FLAGGED 25 KT VECTORS. WINDS IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. ISOBARIC PATTERN IS SUGGESTING BROAD LOW PRES
CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INDEED QSCAT AND SFC OBS
SUPPORT BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS/NOGAPS WHICH BASICALLY DRIFTS THE WEAK
LOW WNW-NW TOWARD NICARAGUA THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS
A LITTLE STRONGER AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM N-NW TOWARD THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

NE SWELL IS ELEVATING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE N TROP N ATLC
WATERS AND TO 6 FT IN THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MON.

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
Quoting Cotillion:
-creeps in-

Yes yes, Pottery, feel free to have your 5 minutes of gloating. ;)

Now, with 2/3 of my sports teams losing this weekend, my Ravens better not let me down today....

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020542
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Not even a ripple out there.

Let me quote that DST has ended and the NHC has made a tiny mistake on time change. It should be 100 AM EST, not 200 AM EDT.
The troublemakeing ULL has dropped into the GOM from MS now.
Otherwise the tropical Atlantic is quiet.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

...ALABAMA ESTABLISHES A NEW RECORD FOR TORNADOES IN A YEAR...

MOTHER NATURE HAS DIRECTED QUITE A BIT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA IN 2008. THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST, 78 TORNADO
TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN DOCUMENTED IN THE STATE. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 77 WHICH WAS OBSERVED BACK IN 2005. CONVERSELY,
THE LOWEST NUMBER OF TORNADOES DOCUMENTED IN A YEAR WAS 2, BACK IN
1950. THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF TORNADO OCCURRENCES FOR ALABAMA IS 33,
BASED ON A 30 YEAR AVERAGE FROM 1978-2007.

THE TOP FIVE YEARS FOR DOCUMENTED TORNADO OCCURRENCES IN ALABAMA
SINCE 1950;

YEAR NUMBER OF TORNADOES

2008 78* (THROUGH AUGUST)
2005 77
2006 70
2004 56
2001 55

TORNADOES HAVE BEEN DOCUMENTED ON THE FOLLOWING DAYS IN 2008
(17 TORNADO DAYS);

JANUARY 10 STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JANUARY 11 STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FEBRUARY 6 PART OF THE SUPER TUESDAY OUTBREAK
FEBRUARY 17 SUPERCELLS
FEBRUARY 26 COLD FRONT
MARCH 4 INTENSE UPPER DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT
MARCH 15 DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
APRIL 4 SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APRIL 11 STRONG COLD FRONT
MAY 8 QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MAY 10 STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY 11 STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY 15
MAY 20 COLD FRONT
AUGUST 18 WATERSPOUT MOVED ON SHORE
AUGUST 24 TROPICAL STORM FAY REMNANTS
AUGUST 25 TROPICAL STORM FAY REMNANTS

2008 DOCUMENTED TORNADOES BY DAMAGE RATING AND INJURIES;

EF0 EF1 EF2 EF3 EF4 EF5 INJURIES FATALITIES
27 35 11 3 2 0 70 5

TWO VIOLENT EF4 TORNADOES TOUCHED DOWN ON FEBRUARY 6TH IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WAS THE WORST TORNADO OUTBREAK IN 19 YEARS.
WHILE THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF TORNADOES WAS LOW, THIS WAS THE FIRST
TIME THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED TWO VIOLENT TORNADOES ON THE SAME DAY
SINCE THE 1974 SUPER OUTBREAK.

A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE INJURIES OCCURRED AS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM
MOVED THROUGH A DENSELY POPULATED AREA. AN EF2 AND AN EF3 TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN NEAR PRATTVILLE, ALABAMA ON FEBRUARY 17TH. THESE TWO
STRONG TORNADOES WERE ON THE GROUND OVER 25 MILES.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY ACCOUNTED FOR 13 TORNADOES.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE TORNADOES WERE RELATIVELY WEAK, MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVED DAMAGE.

THE FALL SEVERE WEATHER SEASON HAS ARRIVED. MAKE SURE YOUR SEVERE
WEATHER ACTION PLANS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION IF
ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$

75/LINHARES


Good morning, temp in Macon, Ga = 39 F, 92% humidity, clear sky.

Hi Vort, 530 is really early!!
World must be asleep, BBL.
Quoting hurristat:


The number of trolls is directly proportional with the square to the danger a storm presents to land.


Good morning all

Get out the fork, I think this season is done for the U.S.
I have been wondering about this term but wanted to wait until nothing much was going on. What is a troll? Some one that says something you don't like? Someone off topic? Some one lying about who they are? Some one being mean and just trying to start some S.....!

I have learned much about tropical weather this year from this site. Especially Storm. He makes things simple.

Will read the blog again after church.

I believe all the models point to development in the Caribbean. In the EPAC front they are about to have their 'P' name.
G'day, everyone, you all still in bed? it is about 71 here with northerly wind at about 9 knots, some of the westerly states are getting some yukky weather with a bit of snow, any one see SNL last night, brilliant, click on the picture of tina and john Link
Good Rainy Mornin all!!! I know I'm getting flagged for this....but I can't resist...Does anyone see the irony of McCain/Palin ads on a website called "The Weather Underground"?? Ok back to the rain in "sunny" South Florida.
thank god the election is almost over.....bang bang bang...moose dead
523. IKE
Quoting CounterClockWise:
Good Rainy Mornin all!!! I know I'm getting flagged for this....but I can't resist...Does anyone see the irony of McCain/Palin ads on a website called "The Weather Underground"?? Ok back to the rain in "sunny" South Florida.


One has nothing to with the other....different entities....

As far as McCain/Palin.....2 1/2 more days and no more ads.....
524. IKE
Quoting 954FtLCane:
thank god the election is almost over.....bang bang bang...moose dead


Thank God.

What will network news(CNN,MSNBC and FOX noise), talk about then...

(1)Why did so and so lose?
(2)2012.


After 2 weeks...mid-Nov.....

(1)Back to the economy.
(2)Sales down/Xmas shopping.
Quoting IKE:


Thank God.

What will network news(CNN,MSNBC and FOX noise), talk about then...

(1)Why did so and so lose?
(2)2012.


After 2 weeks...mid-Nov.....

(1)Back to the economy.
(2)Sales down/Xmas shopping.


Thanksgiving not important this year? :P
526. IKE
Thanksgiving not important this year? :P

To my stomach it is...lol.

Not news though....oops....forgot Thanksgiving/Macy's day parade.....
Quoting IKE:


One has nothing to with the other....different entities....

As far as McCain/Palin.....2 1/2 more days and no more ads.....


I realize that Ike....but I'm glad you got the point.
OMG.. this country will be different for 4 years...scared but looking forward to it
Quoting 954FtLCane:
OMG.. this country will be different for 4 years...scared but looking forward to it


Though, no matter how much change Obama or McCain advocates, those who suffered at the hands of Ike et al have gone under more change than either could ever create.

Though, whichever candidate is elected, let's hope it's a positive step.
Morning everyone,

Can't be healthy to be up this early on Sunday!

Can clearly see the ULL near PCola now on WVLoop.

NWS Ruskin has an interesting discussion this am concerning this feature.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Caribbean
Morning Rob,

Think Pottery's going to find me before I busy myself?

Quoting Cotillion:
Morning Rob,

Think Pottery's going to find me before I busy myself?



Know he's been looking...shouldn't thrash you too bad though.
Welcome to the LSU Earth Scan Lab. Link

The ESL is a satellite data receiving station and image processing facility for environmental data from six unique earth observing sensor systems. ESL specializes in real-time access to satellite imagery and measurements of the atmosphere, oceans and coastal areas within the Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean Sea region, data which they obtain directly from satellite transmissions to three antennas on LSU rooftops. These data have many applications for research, education, and state emergency response.
Quoting RobDaHood:


Know he's been looking...shouldn't thrash you too bad though.


Sounds like I missed all the fun again ....
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sounds like I missed all the fun again ....
Cricket match...Britts got trounced, Pottery gloating, cotillion in hiding.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sounds like I missed all the fun again ....


Heh, we're talking sports at least. ;)
Quoting IKE:


Thank God.

What will network news(CNN,MSNBC and FOX noise), talk about then...

(1)Why did so and so lose?
(2)2012.


After 2 weeks...mid-Nov.....

(1)Back to the economy.
(2)Sales down/Xmas shopping.



Ike,
Have you ever thought of being an i reporter for CNN?
Quoting CounterClockWise:
Good Rainy Mornin all!!! I know I'm getting flagged for this....but I can't resist...Does anyone see the irony of McCain/Palin ads on a website called "The Weather Underground"?? Ok back to the rain in "sunny" South Florida.


I would never flag a message like that.
looks like we are going to see development in the sw carib. let me guess hispanola will get the brunt of it. have a great day
541. beell
Sunday Funny Pages...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
UNAUTHORIZED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS NE TX/SE OK...AND
ARE POISED TO DRIFT E INTO EXTREME SW AR IN THE NEXT HR OR SO.
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THE CURRENT 88-D ECHOES WERE AP...BUT A CHECK
UPSTAIRS WITHIN THESE ECHOES VERIFY...AND OK MESONET STATIONS IN MT
HERMAN HAS MEASURED...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS RECORDED THUS FAR IN BROKEN
BOW. NOT QUITE SURE HOW THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING...
541. beell

That's too funny! Yes, went and checked, it's real.
Not too bad for us off the synaptic charts. A bit of an ugly low out in the North Atlantic, but it's tracking towards Iceland, so no biggie for us.

Wouldn't mind visiting there someday. Sounds a nice place.
Oooh, and isn't it nice when you find a site with new weather toys?
Quoting Cotillion:

...Wouldn't mind visiting there someday. Sounds a nice place.


Me too, lots of Scandinavian blood in my veins. would have to be summer though...
Quoting RobDaHood:
Cricket match...Britts got trounced, Pottery gloating, cotillion in hiding.
morning rob, there is a bit of an uproar on the sport blog about that 20/20 game, not saying anything either way, cause either pottery or cotillion will kick my butt and give me a mouthfull LOL
546. keywestbrat

LOL - it is a sign of wisdom, knowing when to keep one's mouth shut!

How are things in the keys this AM
Quoting RobDaHood:
546. keywestbrat

LOL - it is a sign of wisdom, knowing when to keep one's mouth shut!

How are things in the keys this AM
nice and warm, blue skies, and no socks this am LOL
I think the SW caribbean might in process of starting to develop some mischief.
548. keywestbrat

Good to know, the ULL in the NE gulf will be setting up a more swesterly flow so we'll probably be seeing some cloudyness and increased chances of showers/tstorms before it lifts out. Jury is still out on the speed/strength of next weekends front but you should be good for a few days of "sockless" weather!
549. stormpetrol

some of the models certainly think so...hard to say what comes of it though, although almost certainly more rain for folks who don't need it. That alone is mischief enough.
morning all. Distractions have kept me from finishing that blog about the contest that finished two days ago. I'm almost done, however.
hey rob, I have got to go up to Okeechobee for a couple of months, and do some revamping of the property we have there, but thats ok have about 50 pairs of socks up there already so won't run out, give me a chance to wear me jeans and boots, if I don't freeze first LOL
morning fellow wunderbloggers....anyone notice the spin in the precip on TPA long range loop,its on the SE edge of the ULL,sheer is extremely high over the area but the area appears to be holding its own,might be a little wet on the "old sandbar" today w/isolated strong to severe T-storms possible,w/very gusty winds up to 55mph possibly working to the surface in some of the stronger storms!!!!!!!
whomever is responsible for this beautiful weather we've been having in NOLA you have my deepest gratitude...it just could'nt be better...lol
555. tkeith

Isn't it nice when good weather happens on weekends?

Enjoy!
Quoting RobDaHood:
555. tkeith

Isn't it nice when good weather happens on weekends?

Enjoy!
Amen Rob, gonna take the dog to the park and listen to a little live music and RElax...BTW what time is it...LOL
Have to go for a while. Moms birthday was this week so promised to bring them a feast this afternoon. Must get started.

Brat, Okeechobee? Welcome to woop-woop. Will drop you a WUMail later today. BTW not sure how easy to find Aussie Brew there. Best pack a slab.
rob, they have fosters checked already, LOL
560. GBlet
Can someone please tell me where to place my order for some real hunting weather? Bird hunters going crazy, should have brought beach ball...
561. IKE
The latest polls from this morning...looks like the Democrats will be residing at 1600 Pennsylvania avenue...soon...........Link
Quoting sporteguy03:



Ike,
Have you ever thought of being an i reporter for CNN?


LOL....I have now....
562. GBlet
Ike reporting on IKE, that would have been a hoot...
Quoting GBlet:
Ike reporting on IKE, that would have been a hoot...


Reminds me of '05...

'Franklin - the storm, not the forecaster - should soon meet its demise.'
Quoting keywestbrat:
rob, they have fosters checked already, LOL


You poor souls. Fosters is nasty.
Quoting Cotillion:


You poor souls. Fosters is nasty.
said like a true pommey, at least they are cold, and have flavor and aren't black ale LOL
Some previous mention of the 32 Storm and the affect on the Brac - see below a link to an article on that storm.

Cayman Brac Museum has a poignant memorial to the tragic event including those Brackers lost at sea in Schooners - what is most telling is the repetition of family names and the proportion of the community actually lost in this Storm. Hope the link actaully works???

href="http://www.nationaltrust.org.ky/info/ringofstones.html" target="_blank">Link
Link apparently did not work - sorry
Trivia:

What atlantic hurricane season had the least named storms after 1983?
Finished with the crazy track blog... warning it's long... but a lot of crazy tracks and my justification for giving them the score I did.

Link
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Trivia:

What atlantic hurricane season had the least named storms after 1983?


1986; 1992 if you don't count the subtropical storm, because that didn't have a name.
Good morning all.

Think we may have a storm brewing in the south central carib. Sat and Quikscat look good. QS from last night got the entire area and there was definitely a circulation. CMC, both fsu's and UK in agreement:


Models:

Link

Sat:

Link

QuikScat:

Link

8AM discussion:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N62W TO
NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN
75W-83W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N82W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW AT
11N79W TO 9N77W. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED BASED
ON LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW...ALONG WITH CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE WIND FIELD FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR E OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN CONDITIONS. ALSO...DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
MOVING INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN.
Ya know sometimes I think its best for John McCain not to smile. For some reason it really bothers me. Its just plain scary, a smile and 2 thumbs up. At the moment for the record I am at a toss up.
i will eat one crow for evere storm thats pops up in tell the end of nov be come i do not see any more name storms for 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
i will eat one crow for evere storm thats pops up in tell the end of nov be come i do not see any more name storms for 2008


I don't mean to play devil's advocate, but it's not over 'til it's over. Don't declare the season's death while it's still alive. You may just eat your words (pun intended).
Quoting Cotillion:


You poor souls. Fosters is nasty.


Agreed... try Canadian Beer instead :)
Quoting Tazmanian:
i will eat one crow for evere storm thats pops up in tell the end of nov be come i do not see any more name storms for 2008
I have a real good recipe for that, do you want it, you can't tell its crow after the feathers are off, LOL
I think we'll have at least one more storm. I won't elaborate anymore than that!
Quoting Cotillion:
I think we'll have at least one more storm. I won't elaborate anymore than that!


I will agree..and say within the next two weeks
Has anyone started a straw poll/vote on their blog for this thing across the border yet?
Quoting Orcasystems:


I will agree..and say within the next two weeks


It'll mostly likely be in the caribbean. We might get even get to Rene this season.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


It'll mostly likely be in the caribbean. We might get even get to Rene this season.


I hope not. Both R storms we've seen have been retired.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


It'll mostly likely be in the caribbean. We might get even get to Rene this season.


I answered your question...
Quoting Cotillion:


I hope not. Both R storms we've seen have been retired.


I agree that it will be the Caribbean. It may even get named.
Quoting Cotillion:


I hope not. Both R storms we've seen have been retired.


I know this is kind of strange coming from me after yelling at Taz, but if we get a Rene, i see it as a Laura/Jerry type storm, short-lived and weak.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I agree that it will be the Caribbean. It may even get named.


that's revolutionary, Orca!
So far the NHC isn't showing any love for the CARRIB system. Looking impressive on sat tho.
My guess is they will circle it soon.
Quoting hurristat:


that's revolutionary, Orca!


Its good to see your living up to your living up to your nickname WOBW :)
575. hurristat

I don't mean to play devil's advocate

Yes you do...LOL
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
So far the NHC isn't showing any love for the CARRIB system. Looking impressive on sat tho.
My guess is they will circle it soon.


And still no circle.. go figure?

THIS SURFACE LOW HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED BASED ON LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW...ALONG WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE WIND FIELD FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
The next TWO may have something to say.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
So far the NHC isn't showing any love for the CARRIB system. Looking impressive on sat tho.
My guess is they will circle it soon.
its a area of interest
est pos
14.9n/79.8w
Orca - That's what I was thinking.

Think we have yellow @ 2pm unless sat presentation changes significantly.
RE: Carib possible system.

I've been looking at this one this morning. Most of the pieces are in place, converg/diverge, warm water, shear not prohibitive but seems to be building a little and may be the limiting factor. Think that UUL (NE GOM which seems to be building nicely and translating into mid levels) will be a factor in the future of this system.

Having said that, I still would not be surprized to see this end up in the EPAC. No real basis for that, haven't developed a real feeling for it yet.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i will eat one crow for evere storm thats pops up in tell the end of nov be come i do not see any more name storms for 2008


Didn't you say after Marco that 'No more storms for 2008' and a Category 4, a Tropical Storm and a Tropical Depression popped up in a week.
Quoting RobDaHood:
RE: Carib possible system.

I've been looking at this one this morning. Most of the pieces are in place, converg/diverge, warm water, shear not prohibitive but seems to be building a little and may be the limiting factor. Think that UUL (which seems to be building nicely and translating into mid levels) will be a factor in the future of this system.

Having said that, I still would not be surprized to see this end up in the EPAC. No real basis for that, haven't developed a real feeling for it yet.


Well something has to happen soon.. or they will start on Politics again.. then you will hurt yourself again bitting your tongue
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Didn't you say after Marco that 'No more storms for 2008' and a Category 4, a Tropical Storm and a Tropical Depression popped up in a week.


Yup, he did
Quoting Orcasystems:


Well something has to happen soon.. or they will start on Politics again.. then you will hurt yourself again bitting your tongue


Getting afraid of a permanent fork in it (tongue) - lol

there are 2 interesting features in the carib/gom to argue/forecast/wishcast/dreamcast about. Should be plenty.

Cooking duties calling...
Quoting RobDaHood:


Getting afraid of a permanent fork in it (tongue) - lol

there are 2 interesting features in the carib/gom to argue/forecast/wishcast/dreamcast about. Should be plenty.

Cooking duties calling...


I must admit, looking forward to the chat here Tuesday night.. unless there is a full blown Cat 2 roaring thru somewhere.. its going to be hilarious on here.
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Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Caribbean
Quoting Orcasystems:


I must admit, looking forward to the chat here Tuesday night.. unless there is a full blown Cat 2 roaring thru somewhere.. its going to be hilarious on here.


Ah shame I'll be missing it... :P
an area in the south western carib near 13n 80w wants to form into something. there is a high degree of convergence and this could be the area that the models have been hinting all along of some form of cyclogenesis this week
Quoting stoormfury:
something in an area in the south western carib near 13n 80w wants to form into something. there is a high degree of convergence and this could be the area that the models have been hinting all along of some form of cyclogenesis this week




Click to enlarge
Orca that CMC run looks nothing like the model run I saw...

anyways gonna be an interesting week if somthing develops.
CMC in 144 hrs shows 3 systems one in the NW carribean one about to make landfall in the mid atlantic states and another in a Eastern atlantic.
Had over 2" of rain in Melbourne, FL in the last 24hrs. Has a tropical look & a noreaster feel but not as cold as yesterday. It's been the kind of rain the SE needs more of these days.. no ponding but plentiful. Different set up with a cutt off ULL coming down & the trough. Had the pwats been higher it could have been severe.
Quoting Vortex95:
Orca that CMC run looks nothing like the model run I saw...

anyways gonna be an interesting week if somthing develops.


The 00z is older then the 12Z. The link on my page is the 00Z run. They agree on most of it.. but the 12Z has the second system developing.. where as the 00Z has it starting.. then dieing off.
If you follow and believe the CMC has done very well this year.. then the season is not over by a long shot.
hmmm I just looked at the older run and you are right. The strong ULL in the central atlantic is moving away eastward which would allow for it to develop eaiser.
Theres been quite a bit of TC's this season only 6 names are left.
Thats errie the CMC run has a track similar to the first half of the track for 2001 michelle
Quoting Vortex95:
Thats errie the CMC run has a track similar to the first half of the track for 2001 michelle


Oh sure..stir the pot....

Quoting Vortex95:
Theres been quite a bit of TC's this season only 6 names are left.


Only '69, '95, '03 and '05 have more active since 1950 in terms of # of tropical storms.

Aren't too many before that, either. (Can't remember the site with the list and ACE list from 1851-2007.)


Hurricane Michelle was a powerful hurricane that impacted portions of the Caribbean and Bahamas in November, 2001. Michelle is one of only four Category Four hurricanes to occur in the month of November. A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on October 16th and moved westward. It remained disorganized until reaching the Western Caribbean Sea, when favorable conditions allowed it to develop into a tropical depression, on October 29th. It made landfall in Nicaragua on the 30th, and drifted to north over Honduras. The center moved back over the Caribbean Sea on the 31st, and the system reached tropical storm strength on November 1st. Over the Western Caribbean, Michelle continued to strengthen, and reached hurricane strength on November 2nd. Rapid intensification ensued, and 30 hours later, Michelle reached Category Four strength with sustained winds of 135 mph. After fluctuating in intensity, while drifting to the northeast, Michelle peaked with 140 mph winds and a central pressure of 933 mb, making landfall near Bay of Pigs, Cuba on the 4th. Michelle rapidly weakened over the mountainous terrain, and accelerated to the northeast. By mid-morning on November 5th, the storm had weakened to 85 mph as it was racing through the Bahamas. Michelle became extra-tropical early on the 6th, and was absorbed by a strong frontal system that night. At the time, Hurricane Michelle was the strongest hurricane to directly impact Cuba since Hurricane Fox in 1952. Michelle was responsible for 17 fatalities and $2 Billion (2001 USD), $2.17 Billion (2005 USD) in damage across Central America, Cuba and the Bahamas.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Been soul-searching over the past week and have been through war in my mind. Through this, I have discovered that I have so much that I need to straighten out mentally. So, I have made the difficult decision to step aside from weather forecasting indefinitely and will not be updating my website for quite some time. Just send me a message if you have any response since I don't want comments to clog the blog. I hope you will all understand this move. Have a great weekend and look forward to returning in the future.