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November Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2011

Hurricane Rina is gone, and the tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no models predicting development of a tropical depression during the coming seven days. So, are we all done for 2011? Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time spawn a Tropical Storm Sean? Let's try and come up some answers. Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, ten of the sixteen years (62%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of fifteen late-season storms:

2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (20%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. However, as I noted in the wake of last year's Hurricane Tomas last November in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 1. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Forecast for November 2011
The oceans are certainly warm enough to support continued development of tropical cyclones. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over a wide area of the tropical Atlantic are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and are well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 2.) However, wind shear is starting to rise over much of the tropical Atlantic as the jet stream moves farther south in its usual seasonal cycle. Wind shear over most of the Atlantic will be too high to support tropical storm formation over the coming two weeks, according to the latest run of the GFS model (Figure 3.) Only the southern Caribbean and a few transient pockets in the middle Atlantic east and southeast of Bermuda will have low enough wind shear to support tropical storm formation over the next two weeks. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, far from land, in a region where an extratropical low pressure system gets cut off from the jet stream and lingers long enough over warm waters to acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting a system like this may take form 7 - 10 days from now. Taking all these factors into account, I predict we are all done this hurricane season with storms that will cause loss of life, but there is still a 70% chance that we will get one or more named storms in the middle Atlantic that will stay out to sea and not affect land.


Figure 2. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2011. The black dotted line is the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which marks the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast for November 11, 2011, as predicted by the 2am EDT November 1, 2011 run of the GFS model. The model is predicting low wind shear of less than 4 m/s (about 8 knots, light red colors) in the southern Caribbean and southern Lesser Antilles Islands. Very high wind shear in excess of 44 m/s (85 knots, orange colors), associated with the jet stream, will protect regions north of the Caribbean.

I'll have a new post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters
Thanks Jeff...
Would have thought we were done with tropical storms, but I guess not! Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Here's my objection to the way Dr. Masters reports on statistics, as in this post:

"Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time. . . ."

"All-time", in this instance, is only about 140 years, which isn't even a blink of an eye in terms of world history. And, even that begs the question whether storms which we count today would have been named in the pre-satellite days. For example, how certain is it that storms like this year's Cindy and Franklin would have been named in the first 100 of those 140 years - after all, they were minimal storms far from land.
when is the next strong cold front for jacksonville
Quoting DallasGumby:
Here's my objection to the way Dr. Masters reports on statistics, as in this post:

"Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time. . . ."

"All-time", in this instance, is only about 140 years, which isn't even a blink of an eye in terms of world history. And, even that begs the question whether storms which we count today would have been named in the pre-satellite days. For example, how certain is it that storms like this year's Cindy and Franklin would have been named in the first 100 of those 140 years - after all, they were minimal storms far from land.


I think it's pretty obvious what he means... unless you believe he has a time machine and can magically see hurricanes from 500 years ago.
Quoting DallasGumby:
Here's my objection to the way Dr. Masters reports on statistics, as in this post:

"Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time. . . ."

"All-time", in this instance, is only about 140 years, which isn't even a blink of an eye in terms of world history. And, even that begs the question whether storms which we count today would have been named in the pre-satellite days. For example, how certain is it that storms like this year's Cindy and Franklin would have been named in the first 100 of those 140 years - after all, they were minimal storms far from land.

I suppose he could have gone with, "Or will this 133rd slowest hurricane season of all-time. . . ." ;-)
RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 AM EDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...UPDATE ON RECORD ANNUAL PRECIPITATION AT CINCINNATI...

EARLIER THIS MONTH...CINCINNATI SET A NEW RECORD FOR ITS WETTEST
YEAR IN RECORDED HISTORY. WITH THE CHANGE OF THE CALENDAR FROM
OCTOBER TO NOVEMBER...WE THOUGHT IT WAS AN APPROPRIATE TIME TO SEND
OUT AN UPDATE.

THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER...58.43 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN. THE
OLD RECORD FROM 1990 WAS 57.58 INCHES.

WITH TWO MORE MONTHS TO GO...THIS RECORD PRECIPITATION AMOUNT WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE.

--------------
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY
ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND BROWARD COUNTIES SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURED OVER PORTIONS OF BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. HERE ARE SOME 72 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING
AT 8 AM MONDAY OCTOBER 31ST.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PNSMF L



"Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic"

Dr. Masters, Odette was in 2003, not 2007.
Quoting 12george1:
"Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic"

Dr. Masters, Odette was in 2003, not 2007.

Australia had Tropical Storm Odette in 2007. Maybe Dr J got Odette and Olga mixed up.
Quoting dfwWxDude:
Would have thought we were done with tropical storms, but I guess not! Thanks, Dr. Masters.

We'll see when the next phase of the MJO and a KW come into the ATL together. It could get interesting.
A news story making the rounds of the major media this morning quotes Dr. Masters:

More weather disasters ahead, climate experts report

"WASHINGTON — Freakish weather disasters — from the sudden October snowstorm in the Northeast U.S. to the record floods in Thailand — are striking more often. And global warming is likely to spawn more similar weather extremes at a huge cost, says a draft summary of an international climate report obtained by The Associated Press."

"The final draft of the report from a panel of the world's top climate scientists paints a wild future for a world already weary of weather catastrophes costing billions of dollars. The report says costs will rise and perhaps some locations will become 'increasingly marginal as places to live.'"
...
"Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters, who wasn't involved in the study, said in the United States from June to August this year, blistering heat set 2,703 daily high temperature records, compared with only 300 cold records during that period, making it the hottest summer in the U.S. since the Dust Bowl of 1936."
...
"...Masters said the basics of the report seem to be proven true by what's happening every day. 'In the U.S., this has been the weirdest weather year we've had for my 30 years, hands down. Certainly this October snowstorm fits in with it.'"

Read the complete article here
Quoting DallasGumby:
Here's my objection to the way Dr. Masters reports on statistics, as in this post:

"Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time. . . ."

"All-time", in this instance, is only about 140 years, which isn't even a blink of an eye in terms of world history. And, even that begs the question whether storms which we count today would have been named in the pre-satellite days. For example, how certain is it that storms like this year's Cindy and Franklin would have been named in the first 100 of those 140 years - after all, they were minimal storms far from land.


So he should say 'in recorded history'. Nothing big, we all know what he means and we're all mostly aware of the caveats to that statement.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Australia had Tropical Storm Odette in 2007. Maybe Dr J got Odette and Olga mixed up.

No he is talking about Odette in 2003, because Olga of 2007 caused 40 fatalities, while Odette caused 8.
To add to 13:

"THEY like their beef in Texas. So when Texan ranchers started offloading their cattle at bargain prices because pastures were parched - as they did this summer - it was a clear sign that this was no ordinary drought.

While rains in October brought some relief, further drought is forecast, which will add to losses already exceeding $5 billion. The bigger question is whether the Texan rancher's pain is a harbinger of things to come for the entire Southwest - and if so, what the broader impact on Americans living in the region will be.

Climate models indicate that the Southwest will get drier in the coming decades, threatening water supplies already under pressure from a growing population and ageing infrastructure."

Link

I'd hold off a bit on the AGW/climate change (delete as appropriate) link with the dustbowl until it becomes an occurrence outside of other cycles (for example - a positive upswing in AMO coincided with the last two and maybe again this time).

Still, it's just another rock off the mountain. Doom fatigue beginning to set in a bit in some.
Link

Tropical Cyclone Season Begins for Australia
What is up with the really low level clouds streaming SW into the gulf/carib from SWFL? It is as if a system is trying to form out there...only way in can describe it. Weird. I guess just a tight gradient.
8. Neapolitan3:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
Quoting DallasGumby:
Here's my objection to the way Dr. Masters reports on statistics, as in this post:

"Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time. . . ."

"All-time", in this instance, is only about 140 years, which isn't even a blink of an eye in terms of world history. And, even that begs the question whether storms which we count today would have been named in the pre-satellite days. For example, how certain is it that storms like this year's Cindy and Franklin would have been named in the first 100 of those 140 years - after all, they were minimal storms far from land.

I suppose he could have gone with, "Or will this 133rd slowest hurricane season of all-time. . . ." ;-)


The fact is, there is a huge difference between:
a) seventh busiest of all time;
b) seventh busiest in the last 140 years; and,
c) seventh busiest in the 40 years of weather satellites.

The latter is ho-hum. The middle one is interesting. The first sounds extreme.
Quoting Cotillion:
To add to 13:

I'd hold off a bit on the AGW/climate change (delete as appropriate) link with the dustbowl until it becomes an occurrence outside of other cycles (for example - a positive upswing in AMO coincided with the last two and maybe again this time).

Still, it's just another rock off the mountain. Doom fatigue beginning to set in a bit in some.


It's both noise and gradual change that contributed to the drought this year. Just because it's bad now and might still be another bad drought year, doesn't mean the "desertification is here" as if it will stay steady from this point on. It is very similar to why you cannot take a single relatively cool/warm year due to ENSO and claim it is part of a trend change. Now only about 10 years later, our non-major-El-Nino temps are near what we had in 1998, and back then it took a major event to get there. The same thing will likely happen in the desert southwest and into the southern plains - the droughts will slowly become more prevalent and stronger, and eventually years similar to this year will just be an average water year.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

GOM Viz/loop

..click image for Loop

Quoting AussieStorm:

We'll see when the next phase of the MJO and a KW come into the ATL together. It could get interesting.


The next shot for the Real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) to be in phases 8-2 (Western Hemisphere) is sometime late November, early December. While CCKWs occur outside of the active convection associated with the MJO, this would be a preferrable time for the convective phases of CCKWs and MJO to superposition over the Atlantic.
Quoting DallasGumby:
8. Neapolitan3:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
Quoting DallasGumby:
Here's my objection to the way Dr. Masters reports on statistics, as in this post:

"Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time. . . ."

"All-time", in this instance, is only about 140 years, which isn't even a blink of an eye in terms of world history. And, even that begs the question whether storms which we count today would have been named in the pre-satellite days. For example, how certain is it that storms like this year's Cindy and Franklin would have been named in the first 100 of those 140 years - after all, they were minimal storms far from land.

I suppose he could have gone with, "Or will this 133rd slowest hurricane season of all-time. . . ." ;-)


The fact is, there is a huge difference between:
a) seventh busiest of all time;
b) seventh busiest in the last 140 years; and,
c) seventh busiest in the 40 years of weather satellites.

The latter is ho-hum. The middle one is interesting. The first sounds extreme.

COmpetely understand both sides of this one... it does get tiring always adding the qualifyer: "since records began".
Quoting DallasGumby:
The fact is, there is a huge difference between:
a) seventh busiest of all time;
b) seventh busiest in the last 140 years; and,
c) seventh busiest in the 40 years of weather satellites.

The latter is ho-hum. The middle one is interesting. The first sounds extreme.

Well, weather satellites have been around for 52 years, but I know what you're trying to say. As Cotillion mentioned in #14, the "in recorded history" qualifier is assumed and generally unnecessary. When someone says that a particular place reached its lowest temperature ever, or had its greatest snowfall ever, or was inundated by the deepest flood ever, everyone knows--or should--that those statements are made in the context of historical observations using the very best technology available at the time.
"Reports of the 3 mile high glaciers melting and retreating above the arctic circles is just hear say" -

Reporter 20,000 years ago.....
In other news...fur coat prices way up....
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, weather satellites have been around for 52 years, but I know what you're trying to say. As Cotillion mentioned in #14, the "in recorded history" qualifier is assumed and generally unnecessary. When someone says that a particular place reached its lowest temperature ever, or had its greatest snowfall ever, or was inundated by the deepest flood ever, everyone knows--or should--that those statements are made in the context of historical observations using the very best technology available at the time.

Assumptions aside, the verbiage makes all the difference in the impact. Some people call it sensationalism for writers trying "sell" something.

Noah experienced the worst flooding OF ALL TIME! :)
Great topic Doc! Really interesting that most of the November storms have occured over the last 15 years. GW or is just because of this active cycle we are in? I made a post this morning with the Euro showing a STS moving WNW toward FL by day 10 and the GFS is hinting at this as well.

Also seems as the Atlantic Basin is staying warmer than normal late in the hurricane season as opposed to earlier years.
Cold still building in over Alaska

Quoting DallasGumby:
8. Neapolitan3:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
Quoting DallasGumby:
Here's my objection to the way Dr. Masters reports on statistics, as in this post:

"Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time. . . ."

"All-time", in this instance, is only about 140 years, which isn't even a blink of an eye in terms of world history. And, even that begs the question whether storms which we count today would have been named in the pre-satellite days. For example, how certain is it that storms like this year's Cindy and Franklin would have been named in the first 100 of those 140 years - after all, they were minimal storms far from land.

I suppose he could have gone with, "Or will this 133rd slowest hurricane season of all-time. . . ." ;-)


The fact is, there is a huge difference between:
a) seventh busiest of all time;
b) seventh busiest in the last 140 years; and,
c) seventh busiest in the 40 years of weather satellites.

The latter is ho-hum. The middle one is interesting. The first sounds extreme.


As stated, Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time spawn a Tropical Storm Sean? "of all time" means what it means. Ever. The statement needs a different qualifier to be correct.

Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, weather satellites have been around for 52 years, but I know what you're trying to say. As Cotillion mentioned in #14, the "in recorded history" qualifier is assumed and generally unnecessary. When someone says that a particular place reached its lowest temperature ever, or had its greatest snowfall ever, or was inundated by the deepest flood ever, everyone knows--or should--that those statements are made in the context of historical observations using the very best technology available at the time.


Places I read records, like NWS offices, state the year to which records go back. They do not make a blanket statement like "of all time." I don't expect people who allow themselves to think will agree with you. Facts, Neo, or assumptions? What's your game?
It's not all that hard to understand what Dr. Masters meant.

Having 17 named storms during the season, this season goes down as the 7th most active season since reliable records began.
Quoting Inyo:


I think it's pretty obvious what he means... unless you believe he has a time machine and can magically see hurricanes from 500 years ago.


Well... he is the Dr.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's not all that hard to understand what Dr. Masters meant.

Having 17 named storms during the season, this season goes down as the 7th most active season since reliable records began.

Understood. Then again, many may not understand that qualifier.

And, that qualification is vague in and of itself. When did "reliable" records begin? Had a TS Franklin spawned in, let's say, 1929, would we know about it today?
7th busiest hurricane season of earths last 4 billion years, man thats crazy.
Quoting DallasGumby:

Understood. Then again, many may not understand that qualifier.

And, that qualification is vague in and of itself. When did "reliable" records begin? Had a TS Franklin spawned in, let's say, 1929, would we know about it today?

Well no, because we didn't have satellite back then. But that doesn't make this season any less notable as being the 7th most active hurricane season since 1851. We can't go back in time, you know? :)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


As stated, Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time spawn a Tropical Storm Sean? "of all time" means what it means. Ever. The statement needs a different qualifier to be correct.



Places I read records, like NWS offices, state the year to which records go back. They do not make a blanket statement like "of all time." I don't expect people who allow themselves to think will agree with you. Facts, Neo, or assumptions? What's your game?

No assumptions; no games. Just the observed truth. Here are a couple of randomly-chosen examples, and I'm sure I could spend ten minutes and find another 50:

--A NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 111 DEGREES WAS SET ON
SUNDAY JUNE 26 2011 AT AMARILLO. THIS EXCEEDED THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES SET ON FRIDAY JUNE 24 2011..


--...NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET IN PUEBLO...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN PUEBLO THIS AFTERNOON WAS 109 DEGREES.
THIS SETS A NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR THE CITY OF PUEBLO...
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 108 DEGREES...SET JUNE 29 1990.


The point being, it seems only the most simple-minded or politically-motivated would insist on seeing some variation of the qualifier "in recorded history" after each and every mention of a particular weather record lest they become confused as to whether that record applies equally to events that occurred in 2011 and, say, 10 million BCE. By the same token, when Dr. Masters talks about the "seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time", I can't imagine any right-thinking person wondering whether he's comparing 2011's tropical cyclones to those that spun up in 1807 CE or 1066 CE or 45 BCE...
Quoting Jax82:
7th busiest hurricane season of earths last 4 billion years, man thats crazy.


No of all time, going into the future/past and all other dimensional times, which there might be an infinite set.

I think it was understood to be recorded time... it would be quite extreme to suspect all time ever... which I do not expect from the context of the article, but I could be wrong.
Quoting DallasGumby:

Understood. Then again, many may not understand that qualifier.

And, that qualification is vague in and of itself. When did "reliable" records begin? Had a TS Franklin spawned in, let's say, 1929, would we know about it today?


No, but we can estimate numbers based on how many weak, short lived storms we have now, those that start to the east of 50W and then extrapolate. Reliable records (as concrete as you want it to be) would start probably around 1970.

It's somewhere in the region of 4 to 5 storms missing per season, though that increases the further you go back and is not a total certainty - a season like this in previous history would have more missed whereas a 2004 season would've had a bit less.

Of course, we'd never know for sure how intensity fluctations affected numbers, etc.

I've spoken about this issue more than once so I do have sympathy to the perspective.

On the other hand, all this shouldn't diminish the fact that 17 storms in a year is significant no matter how you alter the averages or perceptions of Atlantic basin activity.
Hope you are right Dr., and we have no more hurricane alerts. Here it "feels" like it's raining a lot more than the last 5 years at least. Hope that helps to cool the waters in the Mexican Caribbean.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I can't imagine any right-thinking person wondering whether he's comparing 2011's tropical cyclones to those that spun up in 1807 CE or 1066 CE or 45 BCE...


Those hurricane seasons back in the Permian were a real pain, seriously.

What with the supercontinent, we kept running out of names. Nightmare.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well no, because we didn't have satellite back then. But that doesn't make this season any less notable as being the 7th most active hurricane season since 1851. We can't go back in time, you know? :)
But is it really the 7th most active season since 1851? Or, just the 7th most active in the reliable weather satellite era? For example, how do we know there weren't a Cindy, an Emily, a Franklin, and a Gert in 1916 and in 1936? If there were storms like those named in 1916 and 1936, that would knock this year down a couple notches.
I agree with Dr. Masters about having one or more named storms this month, but I disagree with the fact that he says they will stay far away from land. The Caribbean is still a hot spot, and with the low wind shear there and the warm sea surface temperatures, all we need is a catalyst for development.
..Knowledge is easily accumulated with a few,
"Bingo" searches.

Folks dont seem to grasp that the Trading/Sailing World of the Past kept excellent records.

Ideology isnt Science.

It's ideology,

Geographer recreating Atlantic's early hurricane history

While meteorologists are busy forecasting and tracking this year's crop of hurricanes using the latest satellite technology, University of South Carolina geographer Dr. Cary Mock is combing through 300-year-old British ship logs for weather data to detail hurricanes of the past.

Mock, an associate professor of geography in the university's College of Arts and Sciences, is the only academic researcher conducting historical maritime climate research. He has amassed approximately $700,000 in grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to research and reconstruct the hurricane and severe weather history of the Atlantic Coast.

Maritime climate work is a new movement in the field, Mock said.There's a great deal of detail to early ship's logs. They provide a lot of data on extreme weather events. We know every South Carolina hurricane back to 1722 because of the British ship logs.

Working from plantation records, diaries, newspapers and other early 18th- and 19th-century written accounts, Mock has spent the last decade building a comprehensive historical database of hurricane activity that extends back hundreds of years before modern weather instrumentation.

In 2007, he turned his attention more fully to ship logs, both U.S. and British, knowing that the maritime records would provide greater detail. This summer, he spent several weeks in England, his sixth trip to research log books from the British Royal Navy, East India Company and whaling logs. He'll return to England in late fall.

Ship log books provide more detail than land records, says Mock.The log records are kept hour by hour for wind scale, wind direction and barometric pressure. They're very descriptive.

Mock says he has reviewed nearly 3,000 ship logs from England and the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and various New England maritime archives, dating from the early 1700s to the 1870s. Of those, he said 300-400 have provided useful information. Few whaling logs -- about 28 -- provided any hurricane information.


A beautiful day in Baltimore. Sunny and crisp. Near 60.
Quoting DallasGumby:
But is it really the 7th most active season since 1851? Or, just the 7th most active in the reliable weather satellite era? For example, how do we know there weren't a Cindy, an Emily, a Franklin, and a Gert in 1916 and in 1936? If there were storms like those named in 1916 and 1936, that would knock this year down a couple notches.

But that's the thing though...We didn't have good satellite technology back then, so we'll never know. For that reason, we are just going to have to go with the storms that have been identified.
Tropical Cyclone Season Begins for Australia

Jim Andrews

By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist
Nov 1, 2011; 2:21 PM ET


Severe Tropical Cyclone making landfall in Queensland, Australia, on Feb 3, 2011.



The Australian tropical cyclone season has begun as of the first of November, and it will last through the end of April 2012.

Based upon the historical record, the season normally produces 12 tropical cyclones in the Australian region, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). A plurality of storms live out their life cycle off northwestern Australian, sometimes making landfall on the rather sparsely settled coast.

Forecasters for the BoM have forecast an above-normal number of tropical cyclones for the 2011-12 season, with an 80 percent likelihood of occurrence. The neutral to borderline La Nina state of the tropical Pacific Ocean, during the Northern Hemisphere summer, was cited as favoring the above-normal storm count.

The sea-surface cooling that marks "La Nina" conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean tends to boost tropical cyclone incidence in the Australian region.

Last season, there were 11 named tropical cyclones in the Australian region, of which five were rated a "Severe Tropical Cyclone."

The strongest storm was Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi which, at its height, wielded a 130-mph fury. Yasi's landfall in northeastern Queensland led to one of the most costly storm aftermaths in Australia's history
Well Cincinnati had it's wettest annual precipitation ever. Not surprising. It has been VERY rainy up here.
Reading through all your comments I have to say that there are merits to both sides of the argument on statistics but at the end of the day we have to accept things as they are, not as they could have been if we had "what we have," today to measure things.
One thing is for sure that none of this uncertainty will occur in the foreseeable future as we now have the means to accurately measure just about anything.
At the end of the day things are what are observed, we can observe more accurately now. A new standard has been set and this is the standard that will be used in the future, it doesn't matter what might have been observed in the past"IF." Lets just concentrate on the future, cos that's going to be a very interesting place for sure!
49. PlazaRed


..excellent post.
I just bought $50.00 in Candy yesterday....and have $45.00 in Candy left......Neighbors all have the same left too......It WAS THE SLOWEST HALLOWEEN EVER!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
A beautiful day in Baltimore. Sunny and crisp. Near 60.

Sky blue skies here in Pasadena.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just bought $50.00 in Candy yesterday....and have $45.00 in Candy left......Neighbors all have the same left too......It WAS THE SLOWEST HALLOWEEN EVER!


Truck it on down to the Salvation Army, they can find a use for it.
Quoting Neapolitan:

No assumptions; no games. Just the observed truth. Here are a couple of randomly-chosen examples, and I'm sure I could spend ten minutes and find another 50:

--A NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 111 DEGREES WAS SET ON
SUNDAY JUNE 26 2011 AT AMARILLO. THIS EXCEEDED THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES SET ON FRIDAY JUNE 24 2011..


--...NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET IN PUEBLO...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN PUEBLO THIS AFTERNOON WAS 109 DEGREES.
THIS SETS A NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR THE CITY OF PUEBLO...
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 108 DEGREES...SET JUNE 29 1990.


The point being, it seems only the most simple-minded or politically-motivated would insist on seeing some variation of the qualifier "in recorded history" after each and every mention of a particular weather record lest they become confused as to whether that record applies equally to events that occurred in 2011 and, say, 10 million BCE. By the same token, when Dr. Masters talks about the "seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time", I can't imagine any right-thinking person wondering whether he's comparing 2011's tropical cyclones to those that spun up in 1807 CE or 1066 CE or 45 BCE...


Truth is in the eyes of the beholder.

I am neither simple-minded nor politically motivated. Semantics and S.I. Hayakawa probably don't ring a bell with you, and, if they do, then you did not study well. And I'm guessing you never read J. Edgar Hoover's propaganda classic, Masters of Deceit. Or maybe you did and try to use it to your advantage.

No matter what you believe constitutes "right-thinking" (Not sure if by this hyphenated word you mean correct or politically conservative thinking, but it does not matter for either way it is a judgmental word.) any of the examples you use including Dr. M's statement in this blog are at least unclear if not incorrect when one considers history and proper use of English.

"What's your game?" has more than one meaning. You picked the one I thought you would. I'll leave you to figure out the one I meant.

I disagree with you about what "of all time" means and will leave it at that.

Have a nice day as they say in L.A.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just bought $50.00 in Candy yesterday....and have $45.00 in Candy left......Neighbors all have the same left too......It WAS THE SLOWEST HALLOWEEN EVER!

ikr
when i went trick or treating it felt like forever, and it felt like nobody else was going trick or treating
Did anybody mention about the 6.3 quake off Mexico this morning at 7:32AM CDT....
Quoting Dodabear:


Truck it on down to the Salvation Army, they can find a use for it.


I'm sure its gonna melt before its consumed because of GW!
Quoting JNCali:

COmpetely understand both sides of this one... it does get tiring always adding the qualifyer: "since records began".

That is not a qualifier it is accuracy.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Did anybody mention about the 6.3 quake off Mexico this morning at 7:32AM CDT....

I was going to say about it, but I wouldn't think anyone would care.
My problem with the way Dr. Masters chose to write this blog is that his observations will end up being quoted in articles directed to the general public. They are not aware that "of all time" really means between 60 and 140 years, depending on your definition. Using a qualifier like "known history" is more scientifically precise. As a scientist, precision, within limits, should always be used. Imagine a medical doctor, for example, writing "This was the seventh highest year for deaths from heart attacks of all time.". That would clearly be a very imprecise way to report a statistic, and a meteorologist should certainly be as a clear as a medical doctor when reporting statistical data.

In terms of early or late season hurricanes, there's a high probability those numbers have jumped over the past fifty years due to being able to see on satellite what probably would have gone unseen and unreported when the storms occurred over the open ocean and never struck land. Assuming we see another tropical system this month, I suspect it will be one of those phantom hurricanes that occurred in the past but we never knew it happened.
Quoting Jax82:
7th busiest hurricane season of earths last 4 billion years, man thats crazy.
i'm sure the doc meant in recorded weather history
Honestly before Satellites......HOW many storms went unnamed that was never KNOWN because of Location out at sea.....Lets be real.

Better yet how many of this years storms would not have been named before Satellites....is a better question??????
They name as many storms as possible these days to justify their existence and funding. PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Ameister12:
Well Cincinnati had it's wettest annual precipitation ever. Not surprising. It has been VERY rainy up here.

Cleveland, too
Quoting TampaSpin:
Honestly before Satellites......HOW many storms went unnamed that was never KNOWN because of Location out at sea.....Lets be real.

Better yet how many of this years storms would not have been named before Satellites....is a better question??????

It doesn't matter, because we can't go back in time with the technology we have now and see.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It doesn't matter, because we can't go back in time with the technology we have now and see.
Quoting Articuno:

Sky blue skies here in Pasadena.


Same here in Annapolis. A good start to the month.
Quoting usa777:


Same here in Annapolis. A good start to the month.

Your not too far away from me.
BTW since it's so cool out, I am going to go "photo hunting" (AKA photography)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It doesn't matter, because we can't go back in time with the technology we have now and see.
But, it does matter if you're trying to compare this year to previous years, which was a large part of Dr. Masters' post.
This is from Crown Weather:

Rob Lightbown on October 31, 2011, 5:08 am

The tropical Atlantic is quiet this morning with no areas of concern this morning. It is expected to remain this way throughout this week and likely into this upcoming weekend.

Once we get into next week, we may be keeping a close eye on a low pressure system that is forecast to first track off of the North Carolina coast this weekend and then potential retrograde westward towards the southeastern Bahamas by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The European model is by far the strongest with this forecast representation of the low pressure system while the GFS model is much more muted with this system. It should be pointed out that the Canadian model also forecasts a low pressure system starting to retrograde by early next week. The upper level forecast maps of the European model show that a piece of a eastward progressing trough is to break off next week and retrograde westward. Should this happen, it would likely be non-tropical in nature at first, however, it would have the chance of becoming more tropical in nature as it tracks westward towards the Bahamas.

Should this storm form, it would likely bring several days of strong easterly onshore winds and very rough surf from coastal North and South Carolina southward through the beaches of the Florida Peninsula starting later this weekend and continuing through much of next week.

So, this will be something that we will be keeping an eye on and will keep you all updated.

There is a significant amount of work we can do now, with old data that we couldn't or didn't do before.
For example, we can estimate evapotranspiration based on daily temperature ranges. This allows us to look at old simple data in a new way without modern or advanced equipment.
Sometimes you can look into past data with fresh eyes.
Quoting Articuno:

Your not too far away from me.
BTW since it's so cool out, I am going to go "photo hunting" (AKA photography)


Not too far away at all. I was in Pasadena Sunday watching the Ravens game at Glory days.
I have begun my final entry in my Weather and Warfare series. The Spanish Armada of 1588. The background entry is here. Hope you find it interesting.
Paleotempestology in South Carolina.

Unfortunately the full article is available for payment only.
This article about hurricane frequency over the past 5,000 years in the Caribbean is doubtless interesting. At $32 it will doubtless remain unread by me. Unless of course Dr. Masters decides to post it ;)
*This post is here for no apparent reason*



Good piece of historic reading...
Quoting TampaSpin:
Blast from the past; first hurricane hit Pilgrims in 1635


That's a cool find Tampa Spin. Check out this link where Chris Landsea talks about that storm. A very good graphic on page 10.

The paper covers several other northeastern hurricanes and some in the south Atlantic and Gulf as awe..



Rina Thunderstorm tops to almost 11 miles high
Quoting Neapolitan:

Cleveland, too


It's amazing that so many cities with long weather records are breaking their annual precipitation records in October!

Williamsport PA broke their annual precipitation record on October 17. Their records go back to 1895.

The recent noreaster boosted Williamsport's precipitation total to 63.18". The old record was 61.27" in 1972. 70" for Williamsport is a good possibility this year.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Rina Thunderstorm tops to almost 11 miles high






GETN pretty high!
Harrisburg PA has had almost double their normal rainfall this year.

Jeez that formatted badly. Formatting less ugly now. But not great.

...THE HARRISBURG PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 1 2011...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.



PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00

SINCE JAN 1 65.97

34.38 is the normal.
31.59 above normal
35.04 last year.
LOL You guys are arguing about recording storms before satellites and the doc's use of "all time"! Dang, you guys NEED activity.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


It's amazing that so many cities with long weather records are breaking their annual precipitation records in October!

I'm sure it's all coincidence. Coincidence and nothing more... ;-)
Harrisburg PA set their annual precipitation record in September!


The old record was 59.27" in 1972, and 65.97" now. Harrisburg PA records began in 1888.

Harrisburg PA has never had 5 feet of precipitation in a year before in our records. And I bet by the end of the year they will have passed 6 feet.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm sure it's all coincidence. Coincidence and nothing more... ;-)

Of course, a starting point is to determine how this year compares in that regard to other years.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Harrisburg PA has had almost double their normal rainfall this year.

Jeez that formatted badly. Formatting less ugly now. But not great.

...THE HARRISBURG PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 1 2011...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.



PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00

SINCE JAN 1 65.97

34.38 is the normal.
31.59 above normal
35.04 last year.
Harrisburg is only 56.97 ahead of me. :) I hate this Texas drought, there has been NO improvement where I live.
If you live north of a line from Boston to Chicago to Great Falls to Seattle you might have a chance at viewing the aurora tonight. Things have been picking up, up there.
In addition to rain and snow records being broken already, my neighbor noted that the woolly caterpillars had an exceptionally thick coat this fall. This is in keeping with Dr. Master's observation a few days back.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Hurricane Hunter, what do those pictures show? I really hate it when people seem to post random grpahics with no explanation at to what they are or what they mean.
sar2401, check this out:

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/
According to the models, it is very possible a hybrid/subtropical system could form north of Hispaniola next week by the 9th. This would be similar to Olga in 2007. There has never been a season to end with 17 named, so I think we'll tie 1969 with activity.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
According to the models, it is very possible a hybrid/subtropical system could form north of Hispaniola next week by the 9th. This would be similar to Olga in 2007. There has never been a season to end with 17 named, so I think we'll tie 1969 with activity.

I agree.
Regardless if Rina was our last storm or not, this will be the first time in recorded history that two seasons in a row featured more 15 named storms that I can find. Could be wrong, but its a first.

2010 had 19.
2011 has had 17.

Way the ENSO pattern is shaping up, 2012 will probably be fairly active too. But the trend seems to be downward and more destructive with the whole 2-3 year La Nina year. So, based on that alone and nothing else, 15 named next year seems a good bet. I have no basis for that besides a gut feeling however.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Harrisburg PA set their annual precipitation record in September!


The old record was 59.27" in 1972, and 65.97" now. Harrisburg PA records began in 1888.

Harrisburg PA has never had 5 feet of precipitation in a year before in our records. And I bet by the end of the year they will have passed 6 feet.
Hey!.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Harrisburg is only 56.97 ahead of me. :) I hate this Texas drought, there has been NO improvement where I live.



I'd love to know what the total rainfall over the USA has been this year. Maybe it's been close to normal with all the dry and wet places. cancelling each other out.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey!.When did you join?


August 9th. It should say that.

Drop by my blog if you like.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



I'd love to know what the total rainfall over the USA has been this year. Maybe it's been close to normal with all the dry and wet places. cancelling each other out.
D.C as far as I've seen with my own eyes is very saturated right now.Thank godness we're getting a dry week ahead.Baltimore is probally very wet as well.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


August 9th. It should say that.

Drop by my blog if you like.
Lol.I modified my comment because I relized our join dates are on the bottom of our post.
Correct me if I am mistaken, but aren't third year Neutral/La Nia seasons typically very dangerous?
Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C as far as I've seen with my own eyes is very saturated right now.Thank godness we're getting a dry week ahead.Baltimore is probally very wet as well.


Washington D.C Reagan National:

Rainfall to date 40.05", normal today 33.63", 6.42" above normal

Washinton Dulles:

Rainfall to date 39.56", normal today 35.29", 4.27" above normal.

Baltimore:

Rainfall to date 49.64", normal today 35.32", 14.32" above normal.

Rainfall is 20" or more above normal over much of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southeast New York State.

Harrisburg PA is more than 30" above normal for the year. More than 31" above normal actually.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Correct me if I am mistake, but aren't third year Neutral/La Niña seasons typically very dangerous?


I believe so, yes. 3rd year La Nina's usually have a more active Caribbean season and a less active CV season. Less storms, but more damage because less storms head out to sea. For 2012, I'm thinking that we could have some horrible storms in the Caribbean because there has been so little heat released in there this year (so far at least, but no models are showing a Paloma/Lenny coming in the next week).
Quoting yqt1001:


I believe so, yes. 3rd year La Nina's usually have a more active Caribbean season and a less active CV season. Less storms, but more damage because less storms head out to sea. For 2012, I'm thinking that we could have some horrible storms in the Caribbean because there has been so little heat released in there this year (so far at least, but no models are showing a Paloma/Lenny coming in the next week).


There hasn't been a truly dangerous storm in the Western Caribbean since Paloma, and there hasn't been a dangerous Caribbean cruiser in 4 and a half years.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


There hasn't been a truly dangerous storm in the Western Caribbean since Paloma, and there hasn't been a dangerous Caribbean cruiser in 4 and a half years.


Gustav?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Correct me if I am mistaken, but aren't third year Neutral/La Ni�a seasons typically very dangerous?


I don't know why people keep saying this. We have a very small sample size for calculating that (1954-1956, 1974-1976, and 1998-2000).
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't know why people keep saying this. We have a very small sample size for calculating that (1954-1956, 1974-1976, and 1998-2000).

Well, usually, if a lot of people are saying that, it probably means it is a fact. ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, usually, if a lot of people are saying that, it probably means it is a fact. ;)


Afraid not. That's a logical fallacy called "argumentum ad populum".

You are still young so there is hope for you. Don't go through life without ever being skeptical. Do not believe something just because me, Levi, or Drak say it. Research it yourself if it seems dubious or questionable.
How about empirical research? Were the 1956, 1976 and 2000 seasons especially destructive and dangerous?

No, not really.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Afraid not. That's a logical fallacy called "argumentum ad populum".

You are still young so there is hope for you. Don't go through life without ever being skeptical. Do not believe something just because me, Levi, or Drak say it. Research it yourself if it seems dubious or questionable.


Everyone here being acquainted with the "argumentum ad hominem" :P
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
How about empirical research? Were the 1956, 1976 and 2000 seasons especially destructive and dangerous?

No, not really.


Correct. I was going to say this, but opted to do otherwise because again, we lack an adequate sample size. Give us at least two more such periods to draw a meaningful conclusion.

It should be noted though, that if we're going this route, 2000 did have an active Caribbean season (Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Gordon, Helene, Joyce, and Keith), it's just that many of the storms there were ripped apart by strong shear. Meaning, it could have been deadly.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Everyone here being acquainted with the "argumentum ad hominem" :P


;)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Afraid not. That's a logical fallacy called "argumentum ad populum".

You are still young so there is hope for you. Don't go through life without ever being skeptical. Do not believe something just because me, Levi, or Drak say it. Research it yourself if it seems dubious or questionable.

I was wrong. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ah, but that is where you are wrong, good sir..I have looked it up, using those seasons you listed. ;)

1954: 1069 fatalities/$751.6 million (1954 USD)
1955: 1518 fatalities/$1.2 billion (1955 USD)
1956: 76 fatalities/$67.8 million (1956 USD)
1974: >8270 fatalities/$2 billion (1974 USD)
1975: 80 fatalities/$490 million (1975 USD)
1976: 72 fatalities/$100 million (1976 USD)
1998: >12000 fatalities/$12.2 billion (1998 USD)
1999: 465 fatalities/$5.9 billion (1999 USD)
2000: 50 fatalities/$1.2 billion (2000 USD)

Seems very deadly and destructive to me, no?


We're talking about the third year. So it would be just 1956, 1976 and 2000.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


We're talking about the third year. So it would be just 1956, 1976 and 2000.

Darn :(
Might as well be a quiet season while I'm deployed--wouldn't want to miss anything :)
On another note, I have a new found respect for the NHC's work. I am in the process of writing a blog highlighting the events of the 2011 Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons. The historical comparisons on the Atlantic portion are done, but unfortunately, the TCRs are not. Other than a paraphrasing of the select few the NHC currently has written, I am doing these reports entirely myself, using various data. Arlene's report alone took me three hours.

It's tougher than you'd think!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I was wrong. :P


It's okay. Everyone is at some point. Admitting it shows character.
I imagine so Koritheman.

Drop by my blog sometime before I go.
Quoting KoritheMan:
On another note, I have a new found respect for the NHC's work. I am in the process of writing a blog highlighting the events of the 2011 Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons. The historical comparisons on the Atlantic portion are done, but unfortunately, the TCRs are not. Other than a paraphrasing of the select few the NHC currently has written, I am doing these reports entirely myself, using various data. Arlene's report alone took me three hours.

It's tougher than you'd think!

Did you make Cindy a hurricane?
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's okay. Everyone is at some point. Admitting it shows character.

Whoo! I got character!

lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Did you make Cindy a hurricane?


Since the NHC already did her report, no. But I wouldn't have anyway.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Since the NHC already did her report, no. But I wouldn't have anyway.

and why not?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I imagine so Koritheman.

Drop by my blog sometime before I go.


Reading it now. Hey, it even carries some faint religious connotations. You I like!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

and why not?


Neither the satellite nor microwave signature were impressive enough.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Reading it now. Hey, it even carries some faint religious connotations. You I like!


Finished. History and religion are both my strongest interests (next to weather), so I greatly enjoyed it!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Finished. History and religion are both my strongest interests (next to weather), so I greatly enjoyed it!

No you didn't. You just think you did.

lol.
Did... did everyone just go to bed?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Gustav?


I wouldn't consider Gustav a dangerous Caribbean Cruiser, he only got powerful as he approached Cuba in the Western Caribbean. I'm talking about Gilbert, Allen, Dean, and Felix situations. High being strong enough to force them straight west into Central America or Texas while being very powerful all the way through.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Did... did everyone just go to bed?

No, they left a long time ago.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, they left a long time ago.


Bummer.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I wouldn't consider Gustav a dangerous Caribbean Cruiser, he only got powerful as he approached Cuba in the Western Caribbean. I'm talking about Gilbert, Allen, Dean, and Felix situations. High being strong enough to force them straight west into Central America or Texas while being very powerful all the way through.


You may have an opportunity for such an event next year, if the synoptic pattern mimics past La Nina years.
YAWN
Quoting Tazmanian:
YAWN


Hey Taz!
Quoting KoritheMan:
On another note, I have a new found respect for the NHC's work. I am in the process of writing a blog highlighting the events of the 2011 Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons. The historical comparisons on the Atlantic portion are done, but unfortunately, the TCRs are not. Other than a paraphrasing of the select few the NHC currently has written, I am doing these reports entirely myself, using various data. Arlene's report alone took me three hours.

It's tougher than you'd think!


I'm going to follow along with TA13 here..did you make Arlene a hurricane? I strongly think she was one at landfall.

Unfortunately, I can't find a microwave pass directly before landfall, but there is this right after landfall:



(Last microwave pass before landfall was this, 12 hours before the pass when she was over land)

This was her IR at landfall:




That's pretty much my only reasoning.
Quoting yqt1001:


I'm going to follow along with TA13 here..did you make Arlene a hurricane? I strongly think she was one at landfall.

Unfortunately, I can't find a microwave pass directly before landfall, but there is this right after landfall:



(Last microwave pass before landfall was this, 12 hours before the pass when she was over land)

This was her IR at landfall:




That's pretty much my only reasoning.


I put her at 60 kt.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey Taz!



hi
My best guesses:

Arlene: 70 mph
Bret: 70 mph
Cindy: 70 mph
Don: 50 mph
Emily: 50 mph
Franklin: 60 mph
Gert: 65 mph
Harvey: 65 mph
Irene: 120 mph
Jose: 45 mph
Katia: 135 mph
Lee: 60 mph
Maria: 75 mph
Nate: 70 mph
Ophelia: 145 mph
Philippe: 100 mph
Rina: 115 mph
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My best guesses:

Arlene: 70 mph
Bret: 70 mph
Cindy: 70 mph
Don: 50 mph
Emily: 50 mph
Franklin: 60 mph
Gert: 65 mph
Harvey: 65 mph
Irene: 120 mph
Jose: 45 mph
Katia: 135 mph
Lee: 60 mph
Maria: 75 mph
Nate: 70 mph
Ophelia: 145 mph
Philippe: 100 mph
Rina: 115 mph


Let's just pretend Lee doesn't exist.
Quoting Tazmanian:



hi


How are you?
Quoting KoritheMan:


How are you?



doing well


Devener is off too a good start has far has snow gos
Quoting KoritheMan:


Reading it now. Hey, it even carries some faint religious connotations. You I like!


Thanks! That was the first one to have a religious angle--in the previous 5 battles I covered religion was not a factor.

That was the background---over the next week I'll write up an account of the storms and the battles the Spanish Armada was in.
Quoting Tazmanian:



doing well


Devener is off too a good start has far has snow gos


Yeah, a friend of mine in Fort Collins was saying the other day that they've had their first snowfall.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Thanks! That was the first one to have a religious angle--in the previous 5 battles I covered religion was not a factor.

That was the background---over the next week I'll write up an account of the storms and the battles the Spanish Armada was in.


Looking forward to it!
Ah, this should be fun. I am writing Don's report, and am right up to the point where he attained peak intensity.

It should be rather interesting to analyze the possible reasons for his abrupt weakening.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, a friend of mine in Fort Collins was saying the other day that they've had their first snowfall.



there forcasting 5 too 10" of snow
Quoting Tazmanian:


I bet you wish you were there, huh? ;)
Don't forget to see Jupiter in the east tonight and this week when it is fair.


Venus is emerging as an evening star and will gradually get higher and brighter all winter and into early spring.

Mercury is also visible. I was *just* able to see Mercury. Venus and Mercury are 2 degrees apart in the sky. Mercury is below Venus at sunset.

Here's a simple trick to locating dimmer objects close to bright objects like Venus.




If you hold out your arm all the way and make a fist, your fist is about 10 degrees across. Hold your fist so it is vertical. Have Venus at the top of your fist. Now look down a little less than a finger's width and you'll see a fainter 'star'. That's Mercury.

Do this 30 minutes after sunset when the sky is clear.

Now that you are armed (literally) with this knowledge, you can locate objects easily in reference to brighter objects when you read about them on the Sky and Telescope site!
Quoting KoritheMan:


I bet you wish you were there, huh? ;)






yes and no



yes i wish i was but no i dont think i can stan the temper up and downs
boy did thing really go down hill fast in denver
No snow yet in Denver but it's coming. November in the Rockies! At least the snow is where it's supposed to be :)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
No snow yet in Denver but it's coming. November in the Rockies! At least the snow is where it's supposed to be :)




its snowing there now


and sticking


lol


Link
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
No snow yet in Denver but it's coming. November in the Rockies! At least the snow is where it's supposed to be :)


I thought it snowed there last week, or are you talking about currently? Please be specific. :)
Quoting WoodyFL:


I thought it snowed there last week, or are you talking about currently? Please be specific. :)


At this hour I'm usually vague :)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Ah, this should be fun. I am writing Don's report, and am right up to the point where he attained peak intensity.

It should be rather interesting to analyze the possible reasons for his abrupt weakening.


I already know the answer to that one, Koritheman. Don's downfall was trying to approach the Texas coastline. Texas evaporated it as soon as it approached the coast!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I wouldn't consider Gustav a dangerous Caribbean Cruiser, he only got powerful as he approached Cuba in the Western Caribbean. I'm talking about Gilbert, Allen, Dean, and Felix situations. High being strong enough to force them straight west into Central America or Texas while being very powerful all the way through.

Tomas, he did cause 68 deaths and $488 million in damage. And only got to a Cat 2, so things could of been worse.
Arabian Sea

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
8:30 AM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Intensified Into A Cyclonic Storm KEILA Over West Central Arabian Sea .

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over west central Arabian Sea moved westward and intensified into a cyclonic storm. Cyclonic Storm Keila lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.0N 55.0E, or about 2150 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 400 km north-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 150 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast to south of Salalah around Thursday night/evening.

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area south Oman adjoining Yemen between 13.5N to 20.0N and 52.5E to 58.0E and moderate to intense convection over northeast Oman adjoining northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system center.

Storm Surge Guide
=================

Storm surge of height 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C around the center. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the center and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate (10-20 knots) There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear (-5 to -10 knots) around the center. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of center. 24 hour pressure tendency is positive along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1004 hPA. Buoy near 16.5N 55.1E reported sea level pressure of 999.2 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

09 HRS: 16.0N 54.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 16.0N 53.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 16.0N 52.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Ok, it is now November 2nd. While I would not call this season a 'bust' as an inactive season is actually a GOOD thing, can't we call a rabbit a rabbit? For the post 1995 period, this was an incredibly slow season. Were it not for the satellite storms forming off of cutoff lows in the mid Atlantic (things that never would have gotten a name in years past) the numbers would be way down, and this is the second lowest number of hurricanes in the past 20 years. I believe the same was true of the number of majors. Other than Irene there was no real threat to land all season. I don't want this to start an AGW debate as a) I am a believer b)it was more to do with wind shear and the MJO, but just because we believe in AGW doesn't mean we have to make every data point fit what we theorize will happen due to it, and this season was NOT active, sorry.
big system out east of the windwards i picked 12 at the beginning since no name will likely be added not the greatest forecast. damn lee and irene screwed it up or damage would of been mimumal p rico had a bad season too due to heavy rain
Good morning.

A wet pattern will establish for Puerto Rico and adjacent islands for the next few days.Below is an excerpt from this morning's discussion by the San Juan NWS.

A VERY UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY/DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER IN RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...A GRADUAL INCREASE ON
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2.15 INCHES ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE POLAR TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
SHEARLINE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ON SUNDAY.

THEREFORE...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...THURSDAY AND SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAYS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MUCH STRONGER ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
BEHIND THE SHEARLINE.

Good morning. From tropical storms and hurricanes to snow storms and winter in a few short weeks. Another season (pretty much) bites the dust. Still watching to see if a late one pops up, but it's hard to imagine with the freezing weather creeping down from Canada. Won't be long before we are wanting to be down in the tropics to get warm. Don't know if Pottery has the coffee on yet but I need some. It's cold out there this morning and still dark.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


At this hour I'm usually vague :)

Then you must work on that Brian. It's called coffee.
morning
a fairly large area of convection east of the windwards is beginning to take an appearance of an invest. although wind shear is unfavourable for development. The area is showing some degree of spin in the lower cloud field, which can be substantiated in the latest 850mb vorticity charts.
Quoting stoormfury:
morning
a fairly large area of convection east of the windwards is beginning to take an appearance of an invest. although wind shear is unfavourable for development. The area is showing some degree of spin in the lower cloud field, which can be substantiated in the latest 850mb vorticity charts.


Yep saw that needs to keep low to survive as shear to it´s north is really strong.

Will be interesting to see if it survives
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's out there?
Quoting BackwoodsTN:

What's out there?

Just a tropical wave.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just a tropical wave.

do u think it has a chance to develop into anything or are the conditions to hostile at the moment?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just a tropical wave.


Yeah but we know what can happen to TW's once they get into the right conditions. Do they exist anywhere in the ATL?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah but we know what can happen to TW's once they get into the right conditions. Do they exist anywhere in the ATL?


Might have a STS off the SE US next week by the looks of the GFS this morning. Other than that the ATL is pretty much shut down at the moment but the MJO is returning next week so well see.
Quoting BackwoodsTN:
do u think it has a chance to develop into anything or are the conditions to hostile at the moment?


Only if it can make it into the Caribbean in the next 5-7 days.
178. afj3

Quoting TropicTraveler:
Good morning. From tropical storms and hurricanes to snow storms and winter in a few short weeks. Another season (pretty much) bites the dust. Still watching to see if a late one pops up, but it's hard to imagine with the freezing weather creeping down from Canada. Won't be long before we are wanting to be down in the tropics to get warm. Don't know if Pottery has the coffee on yet but I need some. It's cold out there this morning and still dark.



Just curious, what do you mean "another season pretty much bites the dust"?
180. eddye
wow low 40 for jacksonville
181. eddye
ppl can u tell me how cold it is going 2 get for my birthday in jacksonville nov 11
Quoting Bergeron:


Only if it can make it into the Caribbean in the next 5-7 days.
and if that happens,,r we talkin a tropical system or maybe hurricane and where wud it go???
Quoting BackwoodsTN:
and if that happens,,r we talkin a tropical system or maybe hurricane and where wud it go???


If the wave survives and makes it, yes...a tropical system. As far as where it would go, that's too far out for accurate steering.
Tropical Storm Don report is up. No changes in intensity.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tropical Storm Don report is up. No changes in intensity.

Link

No changes in intensity--though his life was extended for an additional six hours (ten TWOs instead of the previous nine), and his ACE was bumped from 1.4975 to 1.62. (He's still in 14th place on the 2011 ACE list, though he's just 0.0075 under Arlene, so he could easily move into 13th once Arlene's TCR is released.)
Hey All.. gonna be moving to TN next week.. hate to change my handle though (JNTen maybe?... Taking the I40 across from SoCal to Nashville (exchanging earthquakes for tornado's.. at least until the New Madrid fault pops) weather is supposed to be cool but not cold, any suggestions for good spots to stop along the way?? Thanks!
Quoting JNCali:
Hey All.. gonna be moving to TN next week.. hate to change my handle though (JNTen maybe?... Taking the I40 across from SoCal to Nashville (exchanging earthquakes for tornado's.. at least until the New Madrid fault pops) weather is supposed to be cool but not cold, any suggestions for good spots to stop along the way?? Thanks!

Death Valley; the Grand Canyon (bit of a side trip, but worth it); Meteor Crater; Albuquerque (Sandia Mountain); Oklahoma City (The National Memorial; Severe Storms Lab); the Ozarks; Memphis (especially if you're into real barbecue [or Elvis]). It's a nice ride; I've made it a dozen times or more...
Quoting AussieStorm:

Tomas, he did cause 68 deaths and $488 million in damage. And only got to a Cat 2, so things could of been worse.


Tomas weakened considerably in the Central Caribbean before restrengthening as it hit Haiti. Caribbean Cruiser is one to me that trucks the entire length of the Caribbean as a major hurricane or most of it as one.

Quoting niederwaldboy:
They name as many storms as possible these days to justify their existence and funding. PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!
And then we all complain when they don't name enough storms (read, Jose), or when storms don't pan out to our fantasies (Lee, Rina).

Really, y'all...weather forecasting is still an inexact science, and NOAA/NWS/NHC do as good a job as they can to forecast the weather. Sometimes Ma Nature just throws us curveballs.

I'll take them and our local mets over AccuWeather any day of the week.



Anthony
.."I cant believe they didnt na....."
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Thanks! That was the first one to have a religious angle--in the previous 5 battles I covered religion was not a factor.

That was the background---over the next week I'll write up an account of the storms and the battles the Spanish Armada was in.


One of the best loved events in British history.

One of the few that we're not pathetically embarrassed about.
Quoting jrweatherman:



Just curious, what do you mean "another season pretty much bites the dust"?

I'm from Arizona - I suppose it originated from being tossed from a horse - but I used in the sense of the season is mostly over - unless we get one of the late ones popping up.
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:

And then we all complain when they don't name enough storms (read, Jose), or when storms don't pan out to our fantasies (Lee, Rina).

Really, y'all...weather forecasting is still an inexact science, and NOAA/NWS/NHC do as good a job as they can to forecast the weather. Sometimes Ma Nature just throws us curveballs.
br>I'll take them and our local mets over AccuWeather any day of the week.



Anthony

Some local Met's need to do cooking shows instead of weather forecasting..
194. MahFL
I was looking at the CP power and lightning outage map and it's not changed from the 44 % all morning.
The season is NOT over. There still is 28 days left and there will probably be a STS in the subtropical region or a weak TS in the Caribbean before the season is done...... JMHO.......
Hellava front plunging into TX, 39 and falling at Amarillo,TX

Quoting Neapolitan:

Death Valley; the Grand Canyon (bit of a side trip, but worth it); Meteor Crater; Albuquerque (Sandia Mountain); Oklahoma City (The National Memorial; Severe Storms Lab); the Ozarks; Memphis (especially if you're into real barbecue [or Elvis]). It's a nice ride; I've made it a dozen times or more...
Nea, you forgot the Painted Desert, the Petrified forest and Carlsbad Caverns. All beautiful places and on his route, more or less :)
Cooooooold winter setting up
RAWS FT. YUKON AK US, Chalkyitsik, Alaska (PWS)
Partly Cloudy
-20 °F
Partly Cloudy
Windchill: -20 °F
Humidity: 72%
Dew Point: -26 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: in
Visibility: 10.0 miles
People in the Deep South really need to monitor the wx set up early to mid next week as another potentially damaging Tornado Outbreak maybe looming!
Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Next Week
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Nov 2, 2011; 12:20
|
The severe weather threat area could be even larger than this graphic shows.
As storm systems, jet stream energy and temperature contrast converge over the middle of the nation next week, an outbreak of severe weather is possible from Texas and the southern Plains to the Southeast and the Ohio Valley.

The weather pattern next week will favor building warmth over much of the eastern half of the nation with a flow of humid air developing off the Gulf of Mexico over the South Central states.

Meanwhile, a potent storm system is forecast to travel from Texas to the Great Lakes during the middle of the week.

If the currently growing dip in the jet stream in the West were to lunge toward the Mississippi Valley around the same time, we could be looking at damaging thunderstorms including tornadoes in part of an area hit hard by violent weather during the spring.


It is too early to give much detail on the situation. However, it appears the size of the threat area for severe thunderstorms at this time would be rather large and stretch from central Texas to south-central Kansas, eastward to the Florida Panhandle to the Ohio Valley.


The storm set to cause all the trouble over the middle of the nation next week will be dropping southward along the Pacific Coast this weekend.
The storms would shift from west to east across this area, spanning Tuesday through Thursday, meaning that most locations would be under the threat for a 12- to 18-hour period.

The details of the potentially dangerous weather situation will unfold in the coming days. AccuWeather.com meteorologists are very concerned and wanted to give severe-weather-weary folks in the region a heads-up.


On average, there is a second spike in severe weather during the fall.
Long Range Weather Expert Paul Pastelok expressed concern for severe weather outbreaks in the general area of the southern Plains and South Central states in the AccuWeather.com 2011-2012 Fall Forecast, issued back in August.

Pastelok feels the severe weather would fit in to the changes taking place in the atmosphere as winter takes hold over the North Central states beginning during the middle to latter part of November.

Anybody heard from IKE? I miss his post.
That's a week out, too early to be concerned
Seems as if Dixie Alley is becoming Tornado Alley. Folks please be aware get a noaa radio as La-Nina is notarious for big Tornado Outbreaks across the Deep South during the Winter Months due to warmer than average temps across the gulf coast.
I'm kind of interested in the Storm in the Arabian Sea at the moment. Is that an unusual place to see a tropical cyclone? Where might one find historic records of storms in that area?
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Anybody heard from IKE? I miss his post.

Somebody last week said he's fine - just taking a break.
Quoting EastTexJake:
I'm kind of interested in the Storm in the Arabian Sea at the moment. Is that an unusual place to see a tropical cyclone? Where might one find historic records of storms in that area?


check out this link regarding the Arabian Sea storm. It is pretty interesting

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/11/new-study-ae rosols-not-pollution-responsible-for-stronger-hurr icanes/
Quoting kwgirl:
Nea, you forgot the Painted Desert, the Petrified forest and Carlsbad Caverns. All beautiful places and on his route, more or less :)

True. I-40 goes straight through the Petrified Forest (there are mineralized logs laying about here and there just off of the highway) and the Painted Desert. Carlsbad Caverns would be another long side-trip south, but worth it if you haven't seen it.

Of course, there's also also old U.S. Route 66, which more or less parallels I-40 through the Southwest. Some parts are overly kitschy and touristy, but it's still a neat thing--and often a better view--to take it rather than the interstate if you have the time...
Quoting TropicTraveler:

Somebody last week said he's fine - just taking a break.
He is. Just not as interested in tropical weather as he was and busy with life in general.
For those who may still be interested...

We're doing the November edition of Prepare to Survive tonight at 7 p.m. eastern

Our guests will be talking about power outages and safety before, during and after a hurricane, and Florida's building codes.

Join the fun at

http://www.pinellascounty.org/eseries
Quoting niederwaldboy:
They name as many storms as possible these days to justify their existence and funding. PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)

The best post of the season!!!!!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Seems as if Dixie Alley is becoming Tornado Alley. Folks please be aware get a noaa radio as La-Nina is notarious for big Tornado Outbreaks across the Deep South during the Winter Months due to warmer than average temps across the gulf coast.


I'm pretty sure everyone on here has a weather radio. :) What I wish would happen is that local and state governments would stop spending money on replacing worn out sirens and buy weather radios for the citizens. The sirens can't be heard in a lot of places and, even if you hear them, they give you no information. During las April's tornado outbreaks, the sirens in central Alabama were going off almost continuously, to the point that people started ignoring them. If everyone had a weather radio, at least they'd know what the warnings were for and if they were in danger.
sar2401 Great post and plus 1!
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)


This deserves best post of the year!
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
810 AM EDT WED NOV 2 2011

...OCTOBER 2011 WAS COOLER AND MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...

A MORE DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN SET UP OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
OCTOBER...BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT BROUGHT COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA. THIS ALLOWED FOR
A MONTH THAT WAS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE-WISE AND MADE FOR ONE OF
THE WETTEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD.

.RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIRMASS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON THE 1ST KEPT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL OUT OF THE PICTURE INTO MUCH OF THE FIRST WEEK
OF OCTOBER. THEN ON THE 7TH A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BEGAN TO COMBINE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND A DISTURBED FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT INTO THE SECOND WEEKEND OF THE
MONTH. RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS EVENT (FROM THE 7TH-9TH) AROUND
6-10 INCHES WERE NOT UNCOMMON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL
UP TO 12 TO NEAR 17 INCHES OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY AND
NEAR PALM BAY AND VERO BEACH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE PEAK OF
THE EVENT ON THE 8TH RANKED AMONG SOME OF THE HIGHEST DAILY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EVER RECORDED.

RAINFALL FROM OCTOBER 8TH (FOR SELECT SITES) AND HOW IT RANKS AMONG
THE HIGHEST DAILY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR OCTOBER AND DURING THE
ENTIRE PERIOD OF RECORD:

STATION RAINFALL OCTOBER ENTIRE RECORD
TOTALS RANK RANK

ORLANDO 5.68" 3RD HIGHEST 7TH HIGHEST
MELBOURNE 6.16" 2ND HIGHEST 9TH HIGHEST
VERO BEACH 8.30" 2ND HIGHEST 3RD HIGHEST

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THAT HAPPENED DURING THIS EVENT WAS
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS FROM A GALE FORCE LOW THAT DEVELOPED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ON THE 9TH. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED
MINOR WIND DAMAGE AS IT GENERATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40-50 MPH AND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75-80 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT PLEASE VISIT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/

AND CLICK ON OUR STORM SURVEYS PAGE.

NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WAS THEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE MONTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS BUILT INTO THE
AREA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE 14TH. THEN ANOTHER HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT OCCURRED ON THE 18TH WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FELL ON THIS
DAY...MAINLY OVER OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. IN
ADDITION TWO EF-0 TORNADOES DEVELOPED WITH STORMS DURING THIS
EVENT...ONE IN INDIANTOWN AND THE OTHER IN VERO BEACH.

THE DRIER AIRMASS THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THE 19TH SIGNALED THE BEGINNING OF THE DRY SEASON OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE INTO LATE
MONTH THEN BROUGHT MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION...AS
WELL AS THE THIRD EF-0 TORNADO TO THE IMPACT THE AREA. THIS ONE
STRUCK HOBE SOUND ON THE 29TH AND PRODUCED DAMAGE TO 42 MOBILE HOMES
IN THE AREA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS DURING THE MONTH ALLOWED FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
VERO BEACH WAS THE HIGHEST OF THESE WITH A TOTAL THAT WAS 17.02
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AND MADE FOR THEIR WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD!
THIS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FINALLY PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS THAT WERE IN PLACE.

OCTOBER 2011 RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE FOUR MAIN CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE AS FOLLOWS (RANKINGS PROVIDED IF IN THE TOP
10):

-DAYTONA BEACH RECEIVED 5.88 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH, WHICH
WAS 1.67 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

-ORLANDO RECEIVED 8.87 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
3.31 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 9TH WETTEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE.


-MELBOURNE RECEIVED 9.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
5.06 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 9TH WETTEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE.


-VERO BEACH RECEIVED 21.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH, WHICH
WAS 17.02 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE...SMASHING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 15.58 INCHES
SET IN 1983. THIS IS ALSO THE 2ND WETTEST MONTH FOR VERO BEACH...
FALLING SHORT OF THE 23.01 INCHES THAT FELL DURING SEPTEMBER OF
2004.

BELOW IS A LIST OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND RAINFALL
STATISTICS FOR SELECT SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR OCTOBER
2011:

STATION OCTOBER 2011 30 YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL NORMAL

DAYTONA BEACH 5.88" 4.21" 1.67" 140%
(DAB)
ORLANDO 8.87" 3.31" 5.56" 268%
(MCO)
MELBOURNE 9.54" 5.06" 4.48" 189%
(MLB)
VERO BEACH 21.93" 4.91" 17.02" 447%
(VRB)
CLERMONT 7.01" 2.52" 4.49" 278%
(CLRF1)
DELAND 5.69" 4.18" 1.51" 136%
(DELF1)
SANFORD 7.27" 3.93" 3.34" 185%
(SFNF1)
TITUSVILLE 7.44" 4.72" 2.72" 158%
(TITF1)
FORT PIERCE 16.47" 5.42" 11.05" 304%
(FPCF1)

Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)

LOL.
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)

lol
Quoting Neapolitan:

True. I-40 goes straight through the Petrified Forest (there are mineralized logs laying about here and there just off of the highway) and the Painted Desert. Carlsbad Caverns would be another long side-trip south, but worth it if you haven't seen it.

Of course, there's also also old U.S. Route 66, which more or less parallels I-40 through the Southwest. Some parts are overly kitschy and touristy, but it's still a neat thing--and often a better view--to take it rather than the interstate if you have the time...


I thought you need a Corvette to travel on Route 66?
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Next Week
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Nov 2, 2011; 12:20


What is the source for these comments? I don't know these guys and have no idea how much credence to place in their outlooks. If it's AccuWeather, I'd need some correlation from other forecasters before I started getting too worked up.
Neapolitan, good forecast, but you really need a few more exclamation points to make it believable to the tinfoil hat crowd. :)
Quoting sar2401:


What is the source for these comments? I don't know these guys and have no idea how much credence to place in their outlooks. If it's AccuWeather, I'd need some correlation from other forecasters before I started getting too worked up.

A lot of people refer to them as InAccuWeather, just so you know. ;)

There is a chance of severe weather next week, especially on Tuesday. But, an outbreak? Unlikely.
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)

Oh my.. I spit my coffee out reading that LOL
Quoting WoodyFL:


I thought you need a Corvette to travel on Route 66?


Nah, Woody, but it would make it a lot more fun. :) My favorite area is old 66 from Kingman to Flagstaff. Almost no traffic, lots of trains, and the Grand Canyon Caverns which are pretty neat, even if the signs make it look like a tourist trap.
Quoting WoodyFL:


I thought you need a Corvette to travel on Route 66?

;-) Well, you don't need one--but it sure helps. Especially if it's, say, a Rally Red '67 Sting Ray convertible.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A lot of people refer to them as InAccuWeather, just so you know. ;)

There is a chance of severe weather next week, especially on Tuesday. But, an outbreak? Unlikely.


Yeah, I thought it was AccuWeather, since it starts off with an "Expert Senior Meteorologist". You'd kinda hope the senior guy would be an expert. :) I don't see anything in the long range outlook that would suggest a widespread severe weather outlook like we had this spring. November to February is our secondary severe weather season, so we need to keep an eye on what's happening, but I really hate things being advertised like that with not much to go on.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
20:30 PM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea moved slightly north northwestward and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.8N 54.3E, or 30 km south southeast of Salalah, Oman and 470 km north northeast of Socotra Island, Yemen.

The system is likely to move west northwestward for some time and then westward, crossing south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast close to Salalah around Thursday evening.

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea, Oman adjoining Yemen between 13.5 to 20.0N - 52.5E to 58.0E, and Gulf of Oman adjoining rest of northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -67C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system.

STORM SURGE GUIDE
==================

Storm surge of height of 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence show no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the system center and is not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear (-5 to -10 knots) around the system. THe system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system. The lowest mean sea level pressure reported by Salalah is 1001.5 hPa.
So it was another year of recurves............will that be the case for 2012?? we shall see!
Its sad to see the tropics fade away with no more excitement of watching a developing storm.

This was a strange year for sure so many tropical storms and few hurricanes.

Time to go into hibernation till June 2012.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
sar2401 Great post and plus 1!


Thanks. I have no idea why we keep spending money on early 20th century technology in 2011. Our county has about 50,000 people. That's about 14,000 households. If we assume that 20% of the households already have a weather radio, that leaves about 11,000 households dependent on sirens that are hard to hear inside a house and are never loud enough to wake you up unless you happen to live right under one. Midland offers their WR-100 radio for $22 each to non-profits and government agencies. If you've got one of these, you'll know they're a pretty decent radio. We could buy a weather radio for each of those 11,000 households for $242,000. The county wants to spend about $290,000 to upgrade the existing sirens and add a few more. Seems like a no-brainer to buy weather radios instead of keeping up a system of WWII sirens. I've bought this up to the county commissioners at three separate meetings and was told they are still "considering" the idea. I get the feeling someone's cousin is in the siren business. :)
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


check out this link regarding the Arabian Sea storm. It is pretty interesting

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/11/new-study-ae rosols-not-pollution-responsible-for-stronger-hurr icanes/


Try this link instead:

Link
Quoting WoodyFL:


I thought you need a Corvette to travel on Route 66?


You do. This is the one that is most desired:
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
Its sad to see the tropics fade away with no more excitement of watching a developing storm.

This was a strange year for sure so many tropical storms and few hurricanes.

Time to go into hibernation till June 2012.


It would have been nice to get a weak tropical storm in the Gulf so those of us in drought, including Texas and Alabama, could have gotten some much needed rain. Other than that, I'd be happy to see every hurricane season like this one. After the 2005 season, I think most of us who live in hurricane prone areas have had enough excitment to last another 10 years or so.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


check out this link regarding the Arabian Sea storm. It is pretty interesting

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/11/new-study-ae rosols-not-pollution-responsible-for-stronger-hurr icanes/


I just read the article and it seems to contradict itself:

"Storms have gotten stronger even as the seas have cooled slightly, due to the south Asian atmospheric brown cloud has also increased due to rising pollution levels, they conclude. Normally cooler seas would lead to weaker storms.
However the combination of cooler seas and a warmer upper atmosphere has reduced the temperature gradient of the atmosphere, from the surface to upper levels above the Arabian Sea. This, in turn, has led to less vertical wind shear, which disrupts storms."

and it is followed by this:

"The bottom line is that six years ago a lot of scientists pointed to rising carbon dioxide levels (warming the atmosphere) as a culprit for increasing hurricane activity. Now another group of scientists say, in this particular hurricane basin, it’s aerosols (which cool the atmosphere)."

Is the atmosphere in the Arabian Basin warming or cooling? The article seems to say that it is doing both. What I am I missing here? Cooler SSTs and a cooler atmosphere would tend to lead to fewer and less potent storms, would it not? How can aerosols then cool the atmosphere over cooler SSTs and lead to stronger storms? .... Does not compute.
The only active tropical cyclone in the world has had it's last advisory written.

I scattered crab shells and did my incantation, warding against a Paloma-like early November storm. The shells fell in a circular pattern.

Thus, we are done. NO mas. :D


P.s. Dr. Jeff - Hurricane Paloma was on Nov. 8, the 76th anniversary of the "Storm of '32", which also hit Cayman Brac.
Quoting cyclonekid:
The only active tropical cyclone in the world has had it's last advisory written.


...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You do. This is the one that is most desired:


I figured somebody would eventually get it. Route 66 still has some amazing sights along the way. A good way to see the country as it was.
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)


Woah
look at the number of +'s!
thats the highest rating ive seen on a blog post
Quoting Articuno:


Woah
look at the number of +'s!
thats the highest rating ive seen on a blog post

We've had triple that before.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We've had triple that before.


Yea, I got 76+ in August. My finest rant. lol.
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)


LOLOL Nea I love you hahaha.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, I got 76+ in August. My finest rant. lol.

kool
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)


ROTFL!!!!!
Quoting WoodyFL:


I figured somebody would eventually get it. Route 66 still has some amazing sights along the way. A good way to see the country as it was.


Those were the days. A lot less hectic times than they are today. :)
Just in case anybody wanted to see them, the NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for a few of the storms during the 2011 AHS.

Tropical Storm Cindy

Tropical Storm Don

Tropical Storm Franklin

Tropical Storm Gert
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Those were the days. A lot less hectic times than they are today. :)

Get your kicks on Route 66!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, I got 76+ in August. My finest rant. lol.


Well, Cybr. We only did that because we wanted you to get off your soap-box. We needed the wood. (It was a good rant)
I guess everybody decided to leave...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I just read the article and it seems to contradict itself:

"Storms have gotten stronger even as the seas have cooled slightly, due to the south Asian atmospheric brown cloud has also increased due to rising pollution levels, they conclude. Normally cooler seas would lead to weaker storms.
However the combination of cooler seas and a warmer upper atmosphere has reduced the temperature gradient of the atmosphere, from the surface to upper levels above the Arabian Sea. This, in turn, has led to less vertical wind shear, which disrupts storms."

and it is followed by this:

"The bottom line is that six years ago a lot of scientists pointed to rising carbon dioxide levels (warming the atmosphere) as a culprit for increasing hurricane activity. Now another group of scientists say, in this particular hurricane basin, it’s aerosols (which cool the atmosphere)."

Is the atmosphere in the Arabian Basin warming or cooling? The article seems to say that it is doing both. What I am I missing here? Cooler SSTs and a cooler atmosphere would tend to lead to fewer and less potent storms, would it not? How can aerosols then cool the atmosphere over cooler SSTs and lead to stronger storms? .... Does not compute.

Here is the article in Nature and it says nothing about some cooling and the sea surface temperature in the Arabian Sea is above normal.
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)


I think this is my first post after lurking for about 6-7 years, but I just had to give kudos for this blast! Well done!
I found this and I wanted to share:


Link
Quoting sar2401:


Thanks. I have no idea why we keep spending money on early 20th century technology in 2011. Our county has about 50,000 people. That's about 14,000 households. If we assume that 20% of the households already have a weather radio, that leaves about 11,000 households dependent on sirens that are hard to hear inside a house and are never loud enough to wake you up unless you happen to live right under one. Midland offers their WR-100 radio for $22 each to non-profits and government agencies. If you've got one of these, you'll know they're a pretty decent radio. We could buy a weather radio for each of those 11,000 households for $242,000. The county wants to spend about $290,000 to upgrade the existing sirens and add a few more. Seems like a no-brainer to buy weather radios instead of keeping up a system of WWII sirens. I've bought this up to the county commissioners at three separate meetings and was told they are still "considering" the idea. I get the feeling someone's cousin is in the siren business. :)






Weather Radio and Radio Scanner Tone for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning while under a tornado watch.


Midland WR-100


Quoting WoodyFL:


I thought you need a Corvette to travel on Route 66?
What? my Penske 26 footer will sure be outta place :[
Lets have a debate:
How long will it take for AGW believers before you back off on exactly how fast and rapid it is occurring. (As in if in 10 years it is just a little warmer, still arctic sea ice in the summer, will you agree the threat had been overblown).

And for the other side, how many years of extreme weather will it take for you to finally agree that the warming is having a great effect on the environment?


And how long to expect the other side to wait?


I actually wanna have a scientific debate not a name-calling war.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Lets have a debate:
How long will it take for AGW believers before you back off on exactly how fast and rapid it is occurring. (As in if in 10 years it is just a little warmer, still arctic sea ice in the summer, will you agree the threat had been overblown).

And for the other side, how many years of extreme weather will it take for you to finally agree that the warming is having a great effect on the environment?


And how long to expect the other side to wait?


I actually wanna have a scientific debate not a name-calling war.

lol, well, good luck with that...You may get one or two people, but a lot have headed elsewhere for the winter. ;)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Lets have a debate:
How long will it take for AGW believers before you back off on exactly how fast and rapid it is occurring. (As in if in 10 years it is just a little warmer, still arctic sea ice in the summer, will you agree the threat had been overblown).

And for the other side, how many years of extreme weather will it take for you to finally agree that the warming is having a great effect on the environment?


And how long to expect the other side to wait?


I actually wanna have a scientific debate not a name-calling war.


IMHO, there is no such thing as man-made global warming. However, I do believe that mankind is altering the environment in a way that has caused larger swings in extremes. We have made the heat waves hotter, and the cold spells colder. We have not, in any way, done anything that would lead me to believe that the human race has directly caused warmer SSTs or the ensuing stronger storms and hurricanes. I know that recently the extreme weather (Texas/Southwest Drought, Thailand flood, and Snowtober in the Northeast) has some people saying that Man-Made Global Warming (MMGW) is the cause. That is like saying that my car made a odd noise and that it means that the engine is about to explode. Furthermore, all of these records have been broken is a result of just global warming, is incorrect because of two things. The first is that our "all time records" go back maybe 100 years or 150 if we are lucky. Undoubtedly more extreme temperatures occurred before records were kept during or before people lived there. Second, it is not MMGW, but just a combination of the planet still coming out of the ice age and the extremes being altered by pollution. Again, I said all the extremes, not just extreme hot, but extreme cold too.

On the subject of MMGW, for those who watched An Inconvenient Truth, I also encourage you to watch Cool It by Bjorn Lomberg, who provides alternate theories to the MMGW debate. IMO it is a real eye-opener.

We really don't have anything to fear from the AGW CRISIS.

As long as we have fine products being developed by Americans at fine American companies such as Lennox, Trane and Carrier and serviced by equally fine companies such as Waldo's Refrigeration we will remain comfortable despite the ups and downs of the outside climate.

Make mine the 4 ton variable speed heat pump with heavy duty coils and the 10 year factory warranty. Now that's COOL LIVING!




In no way is any of this to be taken as an endorsement of ANY product or service company or an attempt to spam or link to another site. It is ONLY an ATTEMPT to bring a little humor into a tired old blog during relatively quiet times in the tropics. It is NOT the topic of GW that I take lightly (I have been a believer for 10 years) but some of the arrogant posters , who despite the urging of many, continues to lecture and demean the rest of us, as if they ONLY had seen a burning bush and are now on some sort of an anti-AGW crusade.
Quoting Xandra:

Here is the article in Nature and it says nothing about some cooling
and the sea surface temperature in the Arabian Sea is above normal.


I see little to no contradiction in the quoted block. Remember when the tropical Pacific warming contributed to cooling of the tropopause after undergoing a switch in 2000?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


IMHO, there is no such thing as man-made global warming. However, I do believe that mankind is altering the environment in a way that has caused larger swings in extremes. We have made the heat waves hotter, and the cold spells colder. We have not, in any way, done anything that would lead me to believe that the human race has directly caused warmer SSTs or the ensuing stronger storms and hurricanes. I know that recently the extreme weather (Texas/Southwest Drought, Thailand flood, and Snowtober in the Northeast) has some people saying that Man-Made Global Warming (MMGW) is the cause. That is like saying that my car made a odd noise and that it means that the engine is about to explode. Furthermore, all of these records have been broken is a result of just global warming, is incorrect because of two things. The first is that our "all time records" go back maybe 100 years or 150 if we are lucky. Undoubtedly more extreme temperatures occurred before records were kept during or before people lived there. Second, it is not MMGW, but just a combination of the planet still coming out of the ice age and the extremes being altered by pollution. Again, I said all the extremes, not just extreme hot, but extreme cold too.

On the subject of MMGW, for those who watched An Inconvenient Truth, I also encourage you to watch Cool It by Bjorn Lomberg, who provides alternate theories to the MMGW debate. IMO it is a real eye-opener.



There is scantly any such thing as direct cause-and-effect when it comes to a complex system like the global climate. I think man-made emissions and natural causes are each contributing about half of the warming observed, which in turn has increased evaporation, which in turn has changed both the intensity and distribution of precipitation events. That means monsoons are more likely to fail, and drought is more likely to change to flood too quickly for farmland to recover.
My current thoughts on the GW Debate:

1. Anything we can do to pollute less and use natural and limited resources more efficiently is good. (regardless of whether it will help/hurt GW)

2. The Earth has gone through periods of warming and cooling. And these changes happened well before "man" was around. What caused those trends? Dino Farts? I don't remember Dino's driving cars...

3. I couldn't even begin to scientifically tell you whether man was accelerating GW, altered the climate, or is even preventing the warming of the Earth.

4. There are a lot of people politically and monetarily motivated in this debate. This motivation tends to bring out mis-leading information. So much that it is hard to weed through the BS.
263. MTWX
Excerpt from the SPC forecast...

THIS TROUGH WILL MINOR OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION ON SUN/D5...WITH A BROAD SWLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE
CNTRL AND WRN STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
WITH NEAR 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO OK BY SUN AFTERNOON. WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR BUT
SUBTLE NATURE OF FORCING SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL NOT OCCUR.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS
WHICH WILL BE OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY 12Z MON/D6.
BY D6...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
ECMWF...THE TYPICALLY PREFERRED MODEL...INDICATES A DEEPER UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...SUGGESTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS ON MON/D6. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN A TWO
DAY PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR MON AND TUE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WOULD BE EVEN GREATER ON TUE/D7 OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND
PREDICTABILITY IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE AREAS.

Quoting MTWX:
Excerpt from the SPC forecast...

THIS TROUGH WILL MINOR OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION ON SUN/D5...WITH A BROAD SWLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE
CNTRL AND WRN STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
WITH NEAR 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO OK BY SUN AFTERNOON. WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR BUT
SUBTLE NATURE OF FORCING SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL NOT OCCUR.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS
WHICH WILL BE OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY 12Z MON/D6.


Hey, it was nice and quiet in here until you posted that. :)
265. MTWX
Sorry, just catching up on the blog. didn't reallize the last post was 2 hours ago... LOL
Quoting MTWX:
Sorry, just catching up on the blog. didn't reallize the last post was 2 hours ago... LOL


It's OK. I was just looking myself. Guess everyone is on vacation or gathering links for tomorrow's arguments.
IPCC put out a summery for some paper that is to be released soon about Climate Change & extreme weather.

There's some quotes from Masters this article about the summary..

From June to August this year in the United States, blistering heat set 2,703 daily high temperature records, compared with only 300 cold records during that period. That made it the hottest summer in the U.S. since the Dust Bowl of 1936, according to Weather Underground Meteorology Director Jeff Masters, who was not involved in the study.

But Masters said the basic findings seem to be proven true by actual events.

"In the U.S., this has been the weirdest weather year we've had for my 30 years, hands down."
A Town in Texas: This is How it Ends
About 8,000 Southern California Edison customers across several counties were still without power Wednesday night, the utility said.

Earlier in the day, more more than 18,000 people had been without electricity, Southern California Edison said in a Twitter message.

The areas without power Wednesday night included parts of Calabasas, Fontana, Lancaster, Simi Valley and Stanton.

Heavy winds earlier in the day knocked down power lines and were blamed for several brush fires. The National Weather Service issued a red-flag warning for strong winds and critical fire weather through 9 p.m. Wednesday.
ASCAT of the trough near PR.

Windsat has been looking messed up. It looks down now.
Topic: *Windsat data delay


*Update: *
ESPC was informed by Monterey that due to the NPP launch, the SVAL
receiving station will no longer be used to receive WinSat data for the
next month. FAIR will be spun up again to receive the WindSat orbits
during this time. Once Fairbanks is online again WinSat contacts
will be
handled only by Fairbanks until Svalbard is made available again. This
will mean increased latency because Coriolis has fewer contacts with
Fairbanks than at Svalbard. There will be a 6-orbit latency period each
day, from roughly 0400z to 1400z.

*Update #1: *ESPC began receiving Winsat data at 1645 UTC.

*Update #2: *CLARIFICATION: Due to NPP's higher priority for Svalbard
launch and testing activities, Windsat data receiving has been moved
from Svalbard to Fairbanks. Fairbanks replaces Svalbard in acting as
the receiving station for Windsat for the dates of October 28, 2011
through November 28, 2011. During this period blind spots at Fairbanks
will impact data receipt, creating data delivery delays for Windsat
orbits occurring between 0400Z and 1400Z. After November 28, 2011,
Windsat receiving will be transferred back to Svalbard and nominal data
delivery times will resume for Windsat data.

*Date/Time**Issued:*October 31, 2011 0100 UTC *
*
thank you for the info skye.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
5:30 AM IST November 3 2011
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman remained practically stationary and lays centered over the same area close to Salalah. It is likely to move west northwestward and weaken further. However, some numerical weather prediction models suggest re-emergence of the system into Arabian Sea hence the system will be monitored for further development.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots wit ha central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off the coast of Oman and Yemen.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hPa level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1002.2 hPa.
Quoting FrankZapper:
We really don't have anything to fear from the AGW CRISIS.r


I've watched for a while, how can u call yourself frank zapper? Your beliefs don't match his, in any way. Get a new name! Sorry, don't mean to be presumptive, but really not what Frank would think!
I was looking up some information on how much energy a hurricane expends per day. Found the answer at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html. Bascially, an "average" hurricane (don't know, maybe a Cat 2?) expends more than 250 times the total electrical generation capacity of mankind - per day.

At any one time, there are more than 2,000 thunderstorms occuring somewhere in the world. These thunderstorms create and expend more energy than man creates and expends - per year . Makes me wonder if we are really being a little egotistical thinking we have the energy producing capability to permanantly alter the Earth's climate. I'm sure we can alter the climate on a local basis - look at Los Angeles - but I have yet to be persuaded we can alter the entire Earth's climate, even if we wanted to.

At any rate, see you in the morning. Hoping Alabama might actually get some rain today.
276 Really? Apples to comquats. Hope you get your rain with no severe weather. Supposed to start here soon, hope it gets to you by morning.
Very much in Agreement. Humans just cant seem to "get over ourselves" as a species & relise that man has kept record of weather & Such for an incredably tiny amout of time in the big picture. We really have no Idea of very long term cycles.. Nearly all these things are theory, Not absolute facts. Which is sort of wonderful if you think of it. So much more to study & find out. What fun would studying the weather or much else be if we already knew everything! As far as us affecting long term weather cycles, Well, The great Old George Carlin mentioned something once in one of his shows (not a direct quote) about if we got too far out of line as a species, the earth would just shake us of like a case of fleas. We are aggorant little buggers, Arent we:) The car exploding reference tickles me. Hurricanes may be deadlier than they used to be or floods worse but how much of that is because we think we can now just build where ever we want, without regard for the natural weather of the area. (i.e Barrier Islands, Off the sides of cliffs in slide & quake areas, Towns in flood plains etc.) Sometimes you got to think we may be getting dumber about survival as we "advance" :)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


IMHO, there is no such thing as man-made global warming. However, I do believe that mankind is altering the environment in a way that has caused larger swings in extremes. We have made the heat waves hotter, and the cold spells colder. We have not, in any way, done anything that would lead me to believe that the human race has directly caused warmer SSTs or the ensuing stronger storms and hurricanes. I know that recently the extreme weather (Texas/Southwest Drought, Thailand flood, and Snowtober in the Northeast) has some people saying that Man-Made Global Warming (MMGW) is the cause. That is like saying that my car made a odd noise and that it means that the engine is about to explode. Furthermore, all of these records have been broken is a result of just global warming, is incorrect because of two things. The first is that our "all time records" go back maybe 100 years or 150 if we are lucky. Undoubtedly more extreme temperatures occurred before records were kept during or before people lived there. Second, it is not MMGW, but just a combination of the planet still coming out of the ice age and the extremes being altered by pollution. Again, I said all the extremes, not just extreme hot, but extreme cold too.

On the subject of MMGW, for those who watched An Inconvenient Truth, I also encourage you to watch Cool It by Bjorn Lomberg, who provides alternate theories to the MMGW debate. IMO it is a real eye-opener.

Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-


Long time lurker, and recent member. Hehe, I said member.....

Anywho, this is the greatest post on the interwebs, EVER!!
Please forgive the long post. I have been around here a long time. Member since 2003,(gosh 8 yrs + now, Dosent seem possible!) I seldom say much. Every once in a great while I just have to pop off:) Usually late at night like this where nobody see's it :)
Quoting swflurker:
good morning, thanks for the pic of that nasty front headed
Quoting swflurker:
thanks for that pic of that nasty front headed east..62 here this morning, headed up to 79 so a nice day here..have a great day everyone
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 3 2011
===================================

The low pressure over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea persists. The system is likely to become more marked during next 24 hours.
Quoting Skyepony:
A Town in Texas: This is How it Ends


Thank you for that link. Although people in the USA will be familiar with these kinds of rainfall and climatic anomalies that they are experiencing, to most of us in the rest of the world we seldom hear about any of these things unless they are major news like the recent east coast storm.
I would just like to put forward what might have to be the long term solution to the drought problem if it continues at its present rate:-
What may be needed ids to introduce a type of over ground water grid of pipes, to take water from where it is more abundant to arid areas, rather like a state or national grid power system, this could be fed from a principle purification plant,the pipes could be maintained at high pressure and need not be very large in diameter. The alternative seems to be rural depopulation.
Quoting sar2401:


What I wish would happen is that local and state governments would stop spending money on replacing worn out sirens and buy weather radios for the citizens. The sirens can't be heard in a lot of places and, even if you hear them, they give you no information. During las April's tornado outbreaks, the sirens in central Alabama were going off almost continuously, to the point that people started ignoring them. If everyone had a weather radio, at least they'd know what the warnings were for and if they were in danger.


I just took classes on Saturday to become a SKYWARN spotter. Here in ECFL, only one town and the Air Force Base have sirens. That is a lot of territory and people who don't get overnight warnings for tornados!

We had a big part of our session covering the Groundhog Day outbreak in 2007 and the outbreak in 1998.
Both happened overnight and had a lot of lead time in the warnings. But people didn't have the radios, and most killed in the '98 outbreak were tourists in an RV park. The post-storm interviews indicated that people heard we could have severe weather that night, but did not realize where exactly they were in Florida and went to bed.

I have had a weather radio since I can remember. My cousin did not have one so we bought her one. I don't know how anyone can live in a storm-prone area and not have one.

They do become annoying, like during TS Fay where the alarm sounded all night long as the flood warnings were renewed, but better to be annoyed than dead!

We were told that the technology is coming where our cell phones will get warnings based on which cell phone tower our phones are pinging. That would be great since no one stays home all the time and the warning would be specific to where we are at the moment! This is supposed to happen in the next 1-3 years.

Sorry to be late on the subject. I am a long time lurker and don't post anything but thought someone might be interested.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, I got 76+ in August. My finest rant. lol.
Somebody got 150 [+] for a post???? I remember Teddy's 76, but that 150 is not in my recollection at all....

Oh, waidaminit, I just clicked to the concept that some plusses got added AFTER these posts.... lol [slaps self in head]

Quoting ECFLsunshine:


I just took classes on Saturday to become a SKYWARN spotter. Here in ECFL, only one town and the Air Force Base have sirens. That is a lot of territory and people who don't get overnight warnings for tornados!

We had a big part of our session covering the Groundhog Day outbreak in 2007 and the outbreak in 1998.
Both happened overnight and had a lot of lead time in the warnings. But people didn't have the radios, and most killed in the '98 outbreak were tourists in an RV park. The post-storm interviews indicated that people heard we could have severe weather that night, but did not realize where exactly they were in Florida and went to bed.

I have had a weather radio since I can remember. My cousin did not have one so we bought her one. I don't know how anyone can live in a storm-prone area and not have one.

They do become annoying, like during TS Fay where the alarm sounded all night long as the flood warnings were renewed, but better to be annoyed than dead!

We were told that the technology is coming where our cell phones will get warnings based on which cell phone tower our phones are pinging. That would be great since no one stays home all the time and the warning would be specific to where we are at the moment! This is supposed to happen in the next 1-3 years.

Sorry to be late on the subject. I am a long time lurker and don't post anything but thought someone might be interested.

The thing with warnings being sent out to mobile phones is it's sent after the wx radio's have gone off, even the little ticker across the bottom of a tv screen is later that mobile notification. The 1st line of notification is wx radio. It should be compulsory to have at least one in every home, just like a safe room or a basement room on all new homes built. The more we can protect ourselves from mother natures fury the better. That's my take on things I have been told by some very very knowledgeable people. I am also willing to be corrected on this and will ask those knowledgeable people there thoughts on it again.
Good morning everyone! Still smiling over Neapolitan's post - and wondering if the folks who nit pick and find fault over every small thing can even understand the humor. Have a great day!
Quoting ECFLsunshine:


I just took classes on Saturday to become a SKYWARN spotter. Here in ECFL, only one town and the Air Force Base have sirens. That is a lot of territory and people who don't get overnight warnings for tornados!

We had a big part of our session covering the Groundhog Day outbreak in 2007 and the outbreak in 1998.
Both happened overnight and had a lot of lead time in the warnings. But people didn't have the radios, and most killed in the '98 outbreak were tourists in an RV park. The post-storm interviews indicated that people heard we could have severe weather that night, but did not realize where exactly they were in Florida and went to bed.

I have had a weather radio since I can remember. My cousin did not have one so we bought her one. I don't know how anyone can live in a storm-prone area and not have one.

They do become annoying, like during TS Fay where the alarm sounded all night long as the flood warnings were renewed, but better to be annoyed than dead!

We were told that the technology is coming where our cell phones will get warnings based on which cell phone tower our phones are pinging. That would be great since no one stays home all the time and the warning would be specific to where we are at the moment! This is supposed to happen in the next 1-3 years.

Sorry to be late on the subject. I am a long time lurker and don't post anything but thought someone might be interested.
lived here 30 yrs only seen one tornado and a few waterspots and they did only minumal damage. with the economy as it is now hardly worth it.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Countdown Till Christmas



Oh boy!
Quoting AussieStorm:

The thing with warnings being sent out to mobile phones is it's sent after the wx radio's have gone off, even the little ticker across the bottom of a tv screen is later that mobile notification.


I guess it depends on where you live. I have seen the warning on my TV first enough times, and the radio lags by 5 seconds.

In the 98 outbreak, the Orlando weather radio station went down and it was not noticed until a spotter called in a report. It was offline for 25 minutes. This is detailed near the end of the report under the heading "Finding F". Thankfully this was a one-time incident.

I also lived in two different places in North Carolina where we had no coverage in our area for NOAA Weather Radio. That was 6 years ago, and hopefully those areas have coverage now.

I am all for weather radios and personally own three! But if I am driving around out of the area and my cell phone can warn me, I think that is fantastic. My radio back home does me no good in that case.





It's about time to start watching the long range GFS for our 1st real arctic outbreak into the deep south.
I'm a deep-south snow-mongerer! I'm ready for a replay of Feb 1899! (yes, I'm aware of how dumb that sounds) LOL!!
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Good morning everyone! Still smiling over Neapolitan's post - and wondering if the folks who nit pick and find fault over every small thing can even understand the humor. Have a great day!

+1,000,000
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It's about time to start watching the long range GFS for our 1st real arctic outbreak into the deep south.
I'm a deep-south snow-mongerer! I'm ready for a replay of Feb 1899! (yes, I'm aware of how dumb that sounds) LOL!!


Bring it on!!!!!