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November 2012: Earth's 333rd consecutive warmer-than-average month

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on December 18, 2012

November 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest November on record, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. NASA rated November 2012 the 2nd warmest November on record. Global temperature records begin in 1880. November 2012 global land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were also the 6th warmest on record. Including this November, the 10 warmest Novembers have occurred in the past 12 years, and November 2012 was the 333rd consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average November global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985--during the Reagan administration, when the cost of a first-class stamp was 20 cents. Global satellite-measured temperatures in November 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The September - October - November season of 2012 (fall in the Northern Hemisphere, spring in the Southern Hemisphere) was the globe's second warmest such period on record, behind 2005. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during November 2012 was the fifth largest on record for the month, and marked the fourth consecutive November with above-average snow cover for the hemisphere. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of November 2012 in his November 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2012, the 5th warmest November for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. The most unusual warmth was observed across parts of far eastern Russia, where temperatures were at least 5°C (9°F) above average for the month. Much warmer-than-average November temperatures, and even record warmth in several regions, were observed across the western United States, Mexico, Central and South America, eastern Russia, southeastern and western Asia, Australia, and most of Africa and Europe. Due to the near universal warmth in the Southern Hemisphere (with the exception of New Zealand), that region of the world observed its warmest November on record. In the Northern Hemisphere, cooler-than-average temperatures occurred across parts of central Asia, part of the eastern United States, and much of Alaska and western Canada. Nonetheless, the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature ranked as the eighth warmest on record for November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Neutral El Niño conditions in the Pacific
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C below average as of December 17. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through winter and into early spring. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in November 2012 was the third lowest since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to 3rd lowest November extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during November reached its third lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only the November sea ice extents in 2006 and 2010 were smaller. This was the 19th consecutive November and 138th consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. I discussed this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my November 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

A new weather station deal
Owning your own backyard weather station that can upload the data to wunderground is great, but does come with its hassles---one of them being the fact that you always need to leave your Internet-connected computer powered up. However, RainWise, Inc. has created a new plug & play weather station system that links directly to wunderground.com without the need to route the data through your computer. RainWise is offering a package to our users that includes a wireless, solar powered MK-lll-LR weather station and compact IP-100 Internet gateway which come fully assembled for quick and easy installation. The system is Rapid Fire enabled with a refresh rate of just 3 seconds, so you can upload your weather data directly to us without having to utilize a computer source. RainWise is offering this package at a discounted price of $999.99. For more information or to purchase the PWS, click here.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. VR46L
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Lightning activity?


Naw , dont get much lightning... But its that low you were looking at over the weekend near greenland ...
502. eddye
in orlando it looks like it going 2 get cold i cant wait for upper 30 when im up there so after christmas seflweatherman arent we expecting another strong cold front
Why are South Atlantic cyclones rare

*Sigh*
Quoting nymore:
People of Wisconsin. North Americas most trusted weather person has a warning for you and when he says it you can take it to the bank. I love this Frankie
"


LOL!

At least he is not a certian fear-mongering YouTuber who plagarizes the work of real meteoroligists to support his little "HAARP rings" and has an army of gullible fools following him.
trying to get the thurs nite friday run..big blob of yellow storms for my area..hope I get some rain.....
506. VR46L
Quoting stormchaser43:
nothng hear right now...wind should pick up later but it will just be col d rain probalby,,


Appears to be some interesting weather tomorrow for many folks on here





DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
AMPLIFYING OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY THROUGH THE ERN
U.S. THURSDAY...WHILE PRIMARY SFC LOW DEEPENS AND OCCLUDES AS IT
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT
REGION OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER JET. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SERN U.S. BEFORE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SERN STATES...

RELATIVELY FAST SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN WAKE OF YESTERDAYS GULF
FRONTAL INTRUSION WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RECOVERY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. NEAR-SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM UPPER 60S NEAR THE GULF COAST TO AROUND 60 OVER
CNTRL PARTS OF THE SERN STATES. ANOTHER NWD SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 70 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS. WEAK LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIMITED NWD ADVECTION OF
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION AND ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE AOB 400 J/KG.

FORCED BANDS OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THROUGH THE SERN STATES. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WINDS THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITH 50-60+ KT FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SFC...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF
TRANSFERRING HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR DOWNWARD...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT STILL APPEARS THE
WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY ULTIMATELY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2012
Quoting VR46L:


Naw , dont get much lightning... But its that low you were looking at over the weekend near greenland ...


But there was SOME lightning, right?

Reminds me of cells that came through here last October that diddnt have much lightning (only a few flashes) but dumped some hail.

BTW, I love mid-latitude cyclones!
Quoting wxgeek723:


I begged to differ. After Lee interacted with an upper level trough, they formed a new system that brought me some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen. I remember waking up at around 3am on September 8 to an unreal downpour. The next morning we were at more of a standstill than we were during Irene.

Granted that wasn't Lee alone.

Nature really pummeled us around that time. August/September 2011 was just whack here in the Mid Atlantic. First an upper level low just sat over us for days; I think I was under at least 6 or 7 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in a span of four days. Then an earthquake. Then Hurricane Irene. Then another upper level low. And finally a souped up Lee to top it all off. It was insanity.


And Lee's rotating NE winds on the West side were one of the main enhancing factors of the Texas fire storm we had last year...Specifically the massive Bastrop fire. Had the storm shifted 200 miles to the West, my area may have seen some much needed rain but insead got the opposite. Bad day here for sure.
509. VR46L
Quoting FunnelVortex:


But there was SOME lightning, right?

Reminds me of cells that came through here last October that diddnt have much lightning (only a few flashes) but dumped some hail.

BTW, I love mid-latitude cyclones!


Naw no lightning , thats a summer event for us .. I dont think we had lightning all year . But I do like watching lightning


Draco forecasted peak intensity.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER EVAN (04F)
0:00 AM FST December 20 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Evan located at 24.2S 178.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Deep convection reduced significantly in past 12 hours and lies to the southeast of a partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 26C. Dvorak analysis based on 100 NM shear distance from deep convection edge yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.5, PT=1.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W2.0/24 HRS

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on EVAN..
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
353 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012

...MAJOR WINTER STORM ON TAP FOR MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS TODAY...AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON THURSDAY. THIS STORM HAS BEEN PROJECTED BY MANY OF OUR LONG
RANGE COMPUTER MODELS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A PARALYZING SNOW STORM IN THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THAT HEAVY SNOW BAND
WILL SET UP BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE CENTERED WITHIN A
COUNTY OR SO OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO MADISON...BEAVER DAM...
AND FOND DU LAC. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON COULD CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND HOW WET THE SNOW IS. A
WET SNOW WOULD REDUCE THE THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WHILE
A DRIER AND FLUFFY SNOW WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS.

IT APPEARS FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SEE TOO MUCH WARM AIR
WRAP INTO THE AREA...AROUND THE INTENSE LOW...BRINGING THAT AREA
A BLEND OF RAIN...RAIN/SNOW...WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA WILL QUITE A
BIT LESS THAN FARTHER WEST.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
409 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.AN INTENSE WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW...HIGH WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AT
LEAST 50 TO 55 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE THAT BECOMES STRANDED OR OTHERWISE NOT PREPARED
Florida says " come on down".....................
Is NE North Carolina Going to get snow from Draco?
PLEASE SOMEONE TELL ME
AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP A SQUALL LINE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES CONTAINING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY LATE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE REST OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THESE LOCATIONS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
Quoting AztecCe:
Is NE North Carolina Going to get snow from Draco?
PLEASE SOMEONE TELL ME
..just rain.........THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA FROM
MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION... VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT.

IN ADDITION STRONG POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OR PART OF THE AREA.
I'll never see snow again :(
524. eddye
largofl u ready for the 30
Quoting AztecCe:
Why are South Atlantic cyclones rare

*Sigh*



I think that South Atlantic Hurricanes are rare because the water temperatures never get high enough. Here is a Wikipedia Article on the only hurricanes that have been produced in the South Atlantic. Aztec, the temperatures are in degrees Celcius. (C)

Here is Hurricane Catarina of 2004. Catarina was a Category 2 hurricane.

<>img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons /thu mb/b/bd/Cyclone_Catarina_2004.jpg/220px-Cyclone_Ca tarina_2004.jpg
">


WunderGirl12

Link
526. eddye
wundergirl 12 u ready for the 30
2 days left!
Quoting eddye:
wundergirl 12 u ready for the 30


what do you think??? I can't wait!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
2 days left!


Stop counting GA, you are making me nervous.....
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
2 days left!
So you better live it up like you've never lived before!.lol.Interestingly enough the cold air will be in by that time.They are already forecasting winds to be blowing at 30mph.I think they mean 300mph considering it is the end of the world lol.
2 more days in tell the in of the earth


windy weather headed for TX and OK today


Local forecast now calls for a 50% chance of up to 3 inches of snow on Christmas Eve!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Local forecast now calls for a 50% chance of up to 3 inches of snow on Christmas Eve!
WxGeekVa you only live 15 minutes away from me and the local mets STILL don't sound excited about anything happening.I can't see the link either.
Quoting wxgeek723:
Anyone else dreaming of a stormy Christmas?

We had HAIL today in the Philadelphia area. Very odd for December.

Guess with all the warmth Mother Nature has to get innovative in order to bring us a White Christmas. ;)


We had thunder last night, 125 west and north of DC. In 38 years of living in the same area, I cannot remember thunder in December before, it was quite strange.
Quoting washingtonian115:
WxGeekVa you only live 15 minutes away from me and the local mets STILL don't sound excited about anything happening.I can't see the link either.


Right now only the CMC really has anything then, but I still can hope! And yes, the local mets aren't excited about it because they never get excited about anything less than a 6 inches.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Right now only the CMC really has anything then, but I still can hope! And yes, the local mets aren't excited about it because they never get excited about anything less than a 6 inches.
This is the CMC we're talking about...The only way that'll happen according to capital weather gang is if the storm speeds up and their is enough cold air in place.
Just popping in...

I read today that the Mayans never calculated leap days every four years which means their version of Dec. 21, 2012 is long gone.

If anyone still believes the world will end, I don't know what else can be said. :S That single sentence is enough to disprove the whole thing.


Quoting WxGeekVA:


Local forecast now calls for a 50% chance of up to 3 inches of snow on Christmas Eve!


Oh, I hope for you and Washi it happens! There is a winter storm watch on the western slope of the Apps just a few miles away but I live on the lucky side ( or unlucky, depending on your snow preference. Mine is "none") but we are predicted rain and snow, then snow showers over the weekend. We will be getting lake effect snow showers, the kind we call Allegheny gnats :) because they are so common.

So keep the snow to the east, let the kids play and have a great weekend before the big storm.
Quoting SteveDa1:
Just popping in...

I just read today that the Mayans never calculated leap days every four years which means their version of Dec. 21, 2012 is long gone.

If anyone still believes the world will end, I don't know what else can be said. :S That single sentence is enough to disprove the whole thing.

well i know the world wont end, and since the spanish destroyed most of the Mayan writtings etc we may never really know what they discovered, they were..excellent students of the stars and climate,par none for their time but maybe they knew of a climate change coming at the end of this current calendar of theirs, and we all can see today, our climate and weather IS..somehow changing..so we will see what happens in the years to come..one must remember, IF they Had survived whole..they would have simply made another calendar this week for the next term.
Quoting SteveDa1:
Just popping in...

I read today that the Mayans never calculated leap days every four years which means their version of Dec. 21, 2012 is long gone.

If anyone still believes the world will end, I don't know what else can be said. :S That single sentence is enough to disprove the whole thing.

Lol did you read the artical of of accuweather?.I just did which is why I've never beleived in this whole dooms day staunt.I think it is for companies to get more money from fools willing to beleive something will "happen" and spend basically their whole life savings.The history and science channels keep continuing to show the dooms day marathons though.Probably to mock those people.
Quoting SteveDa1:
Just popping in...

I read today that the Mayans never calculated leap days every four years which means their version of Dec. 21, 2012 is long gone.

If anyone still believes the world will end, I don't know what else can be said. :S That single sentence is enough to disprove the whole thing.




Not to coninue the conspiracy, but the Mayans did not not count time the way we are used to. They calculated when the sun would line up with the center of the Great Rift in the Milky Way galaxy in the future, and found it to be December 21, 2012 at sunrise. They then counted backwards until they calculated a time it had happened before and called that the beginning. They called this a "long count" or b'aktun, a 27000 year period of time. The beginning of the next b'aktun in the Mayan calendar is coming up on Friday, and was not figured using a Gregorian calendar.

I am in awe of their grasp of math and astronomy, but I don't think they meant thier calendar as a prediction of the end of the world. It is simply the end of one time period and the beginning of another.


Link
• The Maya never mention destruction on December 21 2012 – According to Dr Awe and colleagues such as noted author Dr Mark Stone, while the ancient Maya did record the date of December 21 2012 on their highly accurate calendars, they never linked that date with destruction.



• The Maya calendar actually continues to 4772AD – Far from ending on December 21, 2012, which marks the completion of the 13th Bak’tun, or cycle of time, examples of Maya dates up to 4772AD exist.


Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/business/prweb/article/Chaa- Creek-s-Seven-Reasons-Why-No-Doomsday-This-4128350 .php#ixzz2FVo7qWw9
Quoting SteveDa1:
Just popping in...

I read today that the Mayans never calculated leap days every four years which means their version of Dec. 21, 2012 is long gone.

If anyone still believes the world will end, I don't know what else can be said. :S That single sentence is enough to disprove the whole thing.


Faulty logic there. Just because someone makes a mistake does not mean they get the wrong answer!
Reading where people are commenting on snow in the south.
I looked at the 06z GFS and found this... Snow Christmas Night for much of the Northern Gulf Coast and points further North.

Quoting LargoFl:
well i know the world wont end, and since the spanish destroyed most of the Mayan writtings etc we may never really know what they discovered, they were..excellent students of the stars and climate,par none for their time but maybe they knew of a climate change coming at the end of this current calendar of theirs, and we all can see today, our climate and weather IS..somehow changing..so we will see what happens in the years to come..one must remember, IF they Had survived whole..they would have simply made another calendar this week for the next term.


Quite true, it would be time to carve another calendar :) But if they could predict climate change in our time, I wonder why they didn't save themselves from climate change in their own time?

Link
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL IOWA
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
TODAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND
AT TIMES BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
OVER IOWA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Reading where people are commenting on snow in the south.
I looked at the 06z GFS and found this... Snow Christmas Night for much of the Northern Gulf Coast and points further North.

Stop that!.Stop making me excited.Now I think you all are just mocking me...
And continuing much into the following day 12.26.12

Quoting WDEmobmet:
Reading where people are commenting on snow in the south.
I looked at the 06z GFS and found this... Snow Christmas Night for much of the Northern Gulf Coast and points further North.



You are looking at that map incorrectly. It shows accumulated precipation over the past 12 hours along with that current 0 degree 850 temperature for that particular hour. That shows precipitation ending before temps get cold enough for snow.
Quoting goosegirl1:


Quite true, it would be time to carve another calendar :) But if they could predict climate change in our time, I wonder why they didn't save themselves from climate chnagein their own time?

Link
yes between what the spanish did to them and..surviving a long 200 year drought which destroyed their crops and food supply, im amazed they still have some surviving today, their civilization began 2600 bc..and today some still are around..thats amazing to me..in the 80's i had the chance to be at cancun for an economic summit when i was in the news biz..and had 2 weeks to check out the ruins..for me it was one fantastic trip
Quoting SteveDa1:
Just popping in...

I read today that the Mayans never calculated leap days every four years which means their version of Dec. 21, 2012 is long gone.

If anyone still believes the world will end, I don't know what else can be said. :S That single sentence is enough to disprove the whole thing.



Excellent post, but how come the planetary system alignment is dead on track?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Stop that!.Stop making me excited.Now I think you all are just mocking me...


LOL-- just saying... The models have hinted at the possibility for over a week now... Itll be there then its gone for a couple of days then its back... Been latching on to the DEC 25-27 timeframe

One could only hope, right?
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Reading where people are commenting on snow in the south.
I looked at the 06z GFS and found this... Snow Christmas Night for much of the Northern Gulf Coast and points further North.


That is *really* iffy on the snow chances.

For snow on the Gulf Coast, you really have to get EVERYTHING to line up right - proper PW, forcing, and deep cold air. If any part is out of phase, you get rain, or nothin'.
Quoting Chucktown:


You are looking at that map incorrectly. It shows accumulated precipation over the past 12 hours along with that current 0 degree 850 temperature for that particular hour. That shows precipitation ending before temps get cold enough for snow.





Very true.

Thanks, Chuck.

I know there was something wrong with that...




Quoting WDEmobmet:


LOL-- just saying... The models have hinted at the possibility for over a week now... Itll be there then its gone for a couple of days then its back... Been latching on to the DEC 25-27 timeframe

One could only hope, right?




No.

Keep the crap up there where it belongs.




Quoting jeffs713:

That is *really* iffy on the snow chances.

For snow on the Gulf Coast, you really have to get EVERYTHING to line up right - proper PW, forcing, and deep cold air. If any part is out of phase, you get rain, or nothin'.


Dec. 24th 2004
Quoting WDEmobmet:


LOL-- just saying... The models have hinted at the possibility for over a week now... Itll be there then its gone for a couple of days then its back... Been latching on to the DEC 25-27 timeframe

One could only hope, right?
Yeah and I just took a look at my current forecasted tempetures.For christmas highs look like they will be falling to reach the 40's.It will also be cold way before that so the ground won't be warm and will hold alot of cold.Everything will have to line up perfectly.
Quoting Chucktown:


You are looking at that map incorrectly. It shows accumulated precipation over the past 12 hours along with that current 0 degree 850 temperature for that particular hour. That shows precipitation ending before temps get cold enough for snow.



ahhhhhh, Quite right you are! But like I said one could only hope that the cold gets here befor the precip ceases
Quoting RitaEvac:


Dec. 24th 2004



That dates come to mind... Although mainly a sleet event for us Mobilians, we did accumulate a little snow...

Point is it happens often (every few years) and this year could be the year. Maybe not on Christmas but still could happen
Quoting WDEmobmet:



That dates come to mind... Although mainly a sleet event for us Mobilians, we did accumulate a little snow...

Point is it happens often (every few years) and this year could be the year. Maybe not on Christmas but still could happen


TX gulf coast received foot of snow in areas. I received 4 inches



Quoting WDEmobmet:



ahhhhhh, Quite right you are! But like I said one could only hope that the cold gets here befor the precip ceases


The storm next week will no doubt be a whopper. Also, the GFS is much faster than the Euro. It will take a track very similar to the one that is winding up right now, however, maybe a little further south and east.
Oh yeah I remember the snowmaggadon that was forecasted for 12/26/10.That never materialized.But we did have the cold air in place.We only saw a few flakes on and off.With about a 1" that occured.
I'm fully aware it CAN happen. Heck, I proposed to my wife in 2009 (who at the time lived in Sugar Land), and it was snowing that night.

My point was that snow isn't common, and everything has to line up perfectly. It can, and will happen from time to time. But for every snow event, there are many "near misses", where either the forcing is off, or the cold air isn't deep enough, or the moisture isn't there.

Here in the Houston area, most of the time the cold air isn't deep enough, or the forcing is too far ahead of the moisture and cold air. It is also why we tend to get more ice and sleet events, rather than snow... although the last 10 years have been the opposite, with more snow than ice.
Quoting Chucktown:


The storm next week will no doubt be a whopper. Also, the GFS is much faster than the Euro. It will take a track very similar to the one that is winding up right now, however, maybe a little further south and east.


And thats exatcly what we need, a more southernly tracker..

Quoting RitaEvac:


TX gulf coast received foot of snow in areas. I received 4 inches


Yea i remember, was very jealous of y'all that year
566. eddye
ppl come in weather chat
whats face it all winters are geting wammer so you may be finding less and less snow and more in the way of rain
Quoting jeffs713:
I'm fully aware it CAN happen. Heck, I proposed to my wife (who at the time lived in Sugar Land), and it was snowing that night.

My point was that snow isn't common, and everything has to line up perfectly. It can, and will happen from time to time. But for every snow event, there are many "near misses", where either the forcing is off, or the cold air isn't deep enough, or the moisture isn't there.


Cant argue with you there!
Quoting eddye:
ppl come in weather chat



NO
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats face it all winters are geting wammer so you may be finding less and less snow and more in the way of rain


That's why it snowed in 2004, 2008 and 2009 on the gulf coast of TX, warmer world means more snow
Quoting eddye:
ppl come in weather chat



why not you this chat about the weather here on the blog then saying this evere day when you come on where not going too weather chat
LilElla will be one happy Lady...

Quoting RitaEvac:


That's why is snowed in 2004, 2008 and 2009 on the gulf coast of TX, warmer world means more snow




you got that mixs up warmer earth means less snow
Quoting RitaEvac:


That's why is snowed in 2004, 2008 and 2009 on the gulf coast of TX, warmer world means more snow

Warmer world = more energy = more volatile weather = more sharp weather patterns = more likelihood for snow.
Quoting Tazmanian:




you got that mixs up warmer earth means less snow
no, it doesn't. Its not a simple linear relationship.
Quoting jeffs713:

Warmer world = more energy = more volatile weather = more sharp weather patterns = more likelihood for snow.




More likelihood for everything, Jeff. How could you go wrong???!!!!



Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering.
Quoting jeffs713:
no, it doesn't. Its not a simple linear relationship.


easy Jeff, we may all get banned
Quoting TomballTXPride:




More likelihood for everything, Jeff. How could you go wrong???!!!!




Actually... no.

Less likelihood for arctic ice increasing.
Less likelihood for tranquil weather.
Less likelihood for small low-lying island nations to survive.
Less likelihood for climate deniers to have a valid argument.
Less likelihood for certain people to understand. (present company not included in this statement)
Less likelihood for things to change before it is too late, since the relationship isn't linear, and is hard to understand.
Quoting bappit:
Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering.

I don't see bickering, but ok.
Quoting RitaEvac:


easy Jeff, we may all get banned
I'm just talking about relationships, and math, and snow, and climate...
Quoting jeffs713:

I don't see bickering, but ok.


One can correct someones mistakes, I would think and it not be considered bickering
Quoting TomballTXPride:
LilElla will be one happy Lady...


Where is that?
Quoting RitaEvac:


easy Jeff, we may all get banned



LOL. I get it. It went over Jeff's head.




Quoting WDEmobmet:
Reading where people are commenting on snow in the south.
I looked at the 06z GFS and found this... Snow Christmas Night for much of the Northern Gulf Coast and points further North.












+10000!!!!
Quoting jeffs713:

Where is that?





LilElla. The blogger with the donkey as an Avatar.





Quoting WDEmobmet:


One can correct someones mistakes, I would think and it not be considered bickering

Exactly. Bickering is me nit-picking everything someone says, and just being a general pain in the rear.
Quoting TomballTXPride:



LOL. I get it. It went over Jeff's head.





More caffeine!
Quoting jeffs713:

I don't see bickering, but ok.

I won't bicker about the bickerer, but nah, you're cool. Maybe you have them on ignore.
Quoting TomballTXPride:




More likelihood for everything, Jeff. How could you go wrong???!!!!




Hotter, Colder, Drier, Wetter its ALL PROOF!
Quoting bappit:
Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering.



not sure what your taking about i dont see any personal attacks or bickering going on here
Abnormally low winter temperatures in Russia continue to claim more and more lives. Twenty-one people froze to death in only one day; 147 others were hospitalized with frostbite. The cold weather in central Russia is not going to get any warmer soon. On December 19, the cold has reached St. Petersburg, where temperatures fell below -20 degrees Centigrade. It is 30 degrees below zero in the Ivanovo region, -22C in the Kaluga region, and -25 in Tver. In Moscow, for example, the cold snap came on December 15 and will last until next Wednesday, forecasters say. At the weekend, night temperatures will drop to 26 degrees below zero Centigrade.

"The idea that alcohol warms people up from within in freezing weather is wrong. Alcohol only can only mislead people and their defenses - it can make people feel that they are warm. Alcohol is harmful in cold weather. One needs normal hearty food and warm clothing to be safe," Russia's Chief Sanitary Doctor Gennady Onishchenko said. Very cold weather has come to almost the entire territory of Russia last week. Daytime temperatures vary from minus 17-20 in Moscow to minus 50 in Siberia. As usual, the Russians were not prepared to sudden cold. In Novosibirsk, people have to live in cold apartments. Twelve apartment buildings on Nikitin Street were left without heating after a heat pipeline burst. Ecology in Siberian cities worsens considerably because of low temperatures. Many drivers do not shut off engines for the night to be able to use their cars in the morning. As a result, everything is shrouded in dense smog.

A state of emergency occurred in Bashkortostan last week. A heat pipe burst in the center of the capital of Ufa. As many as 155 facilities and more than 9,000 people found themselves in the disaster zone. School classes were canceled. It took specialists nearly 24 hours to eliminate the consequences. Another part of Ufa was left without electricity for nearly 8 hours. Five districts were left without electricity and heat in the Altai region of Russia. Nearly 8,500 people were left to the mercy of fate and extremely low temperatures. In Makhachkala, the snowfall, which began on Saturday night and did not stop until Monday, paralyzed the work of public transport.
In the short term for TX expect the state to get lit up by flames as red flag warnings are imminent, howling winds in west TX today then rest of state tomm. Plunging temps and super dry airmass injection.

Long term for TX, chaotic weather as a huge storm in the plains setup. Possible winter precip and severe weather across the state with possible arctic plunge after Christmas.

Raleigh forcast discussion makes a good point regarding a winter weather setup for the east coast next week, but still expect enough cold air under the closed low and to the NW of it for some decent snow somewhere in the Ohio/Miss River area. Still plenty of time to change.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO INCREASE FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US AND THE STORM TRACK SETS UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES AND CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1024MB AND A BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO SUPPLY ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

Quoting Tazmanian:



not sure what your taking about i dont see any personal attacks or bickering going on here



Stop attacking and bickering at him TAZ, lol jk
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol did you read the artical of of accuweather?.I just did which is why I've never beleived in this whole dooms day staunt.I think it is for companies to get more money from fools willing to beleive something will "happen" and spend basically their whole life savings.The history and science channels keep continuing to show the dooms day marathons though.Probably to mock those people.


Well when the going gets tough I'm going to invest a few bucks in Duracell and Energizer today and tomorrow and short sell on Friday :)
Quoting WDEmobmet:



Stop attacking and bickering at him TAZ, lol jk




oh said i was LOL


you been reported this kinding
Despite torrential rain that killed 16 easing in Sri Lanka on Wednesday, over 175,000 families still remain homeless as towns around the country struggle against floods, an official said here. Over a hundred navy personnel have been called to distribute supplies and assist police searches for 14 missing people. An estimated 146 houses have been destroyed and 805 more were partially damaged, according to Disaster Management Center spokesman Lal Kumara. Several roads have also been blocked by felled trees and landslides, prompting the police and army to work round the clock to clear them. Train services are also reported to have been suspended in several parts of the island. "The 175,886 families displaced by the landslides are housed in 40 camps and they are being provided with cooked food while those returning home are given packages of dry rations," he said. The former war-torn eastern province is reported to be particularly hard hit with over 15,000 acres of paddy under water. Ironically the flood in key agricultural regions comes after Sri Lanka suffered for over three months earlier in the year due to drought.
Quoting Chapelhill:
Raleigh forcast discussion makes a good point regarding a winter weather setup for the east coast next week, but still expect enough cold air under the closed low and to the NW of it for some decent snow somewhere in the Ohio/Miss River area. Still plenty of time to change.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO INCREASE FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US AND THE STORM TRACK SETS UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES AND CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1024MB AND A BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO SUPPLY ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.





the last snow I got was two years ago..news only forecast a dusting..we got over 6 inches..snow events are really hard to predict..I know the cold is supposed to be around christmas day for my area..the issue will be will the moisture be there..its touch and go right now..I always have to go back to how the GFS does..last week it was showing snow for my area and dropped it..it does the same thing with TC, shows it in long range run and then drops it and then voila, it shows it again..so Im hoping that last week long range might have been right..fingers crossed over here!
Taz get dressed, we're going to Hooters
Quoting RitaEvac:
Taz get dressed, we're going to Hooters


When this is said...you know the end of the world is Friday the 21st
Evan is off the blog, but there still is http://www.fijitimes.com.

Interesting news style. I wonder if we'd be better off if our news stories were as terse as theirs.

The editorial was a bit longer and had the following good news.

"But if there was one thing that stood out, it would have to be that the people of Fiji heeded advice and warnings, and this is reflected in the fact that as of last evening, there were no casualties recorded by police.

"Perhaps that is a positive in the gloom inched out by Evan.

"As we rebuild our lives, let us take note of this and use it as a base to improve our lives.

"If it matters, many people made good personal decisions and have lived through a terrifying time."
On a more not so distant note... Strong to possibly severe storms set to traverse the deep south tonight through early afternoon


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW...A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH. WIND GUSTS THIS HIGH CAN CAUSE LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS TO BE BLOWN ABOUT...ESPECIALLY HOLIDAY DECORATIONS. $$







Hope this works... hahaha
Winter weather advisories, watches, and warnings are going up across the central USA as Winter Storm Draco heads for the region. The storm promises to be the most significant storm of the year.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Excellent post, but how come the planetary system alignment is dead on track?


it was the aliens

lol

they told them
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it was the aliens

lol

they told them


Makes you wonder
Quoting goosegirl1:



Hope this works... hahaha
you got it now..good work
...SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY
EVENING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO
CRYSTAL FALLS WILL SEE 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

"There apparently is a great deal of interest in celestial bodies, and their locations and trajectories at the end of the calendar year 2012. Now, I for one love a good book or movie as much as the next guy. But the stuff flying around through cyberspace, TV and the movies is not based on science. There is even a fake NASA news release out there..."
- Don Yeomans, NASA senior research scientist
Q: Is there a planet or brown dwarf called Nibiru or Planet X or Eris that is approaching the Earth and threatening our planet with widespread destruction?
A: Nibiru and other stories about wayward planets are an Internet hoax. There is no factual basis for these claims. If Nibiru or Planet X were real and headed for an encounter with the Earth in 2012, astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye. Obviously, it does not exist. Eris is real, but it is a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will remain in the outer solar system; the closest it can come to Earth is about 4 billion miles
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good Morning All,
Our sun looks beautiful this am..





Credit:SolarHam.com
614. MTWX
Quoting RitaEvac:


Dec. 24th 2004


I was stationed in Biloxi then... Had enough snow to have a snowball fight!!!