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November 2010 1st or 2nd warmest on record; ZombieSat saga ends

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:50 PM GMT on December 24, 2010

November 2010 was the globe's second warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2010 the warmest November on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - November, as the warmest such period on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere for November were the 5th or 3rd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rates the year-to-date period, January-November, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998. The record or near-record November global warmth is remarkable, given that we are in the midst of a moderate strength La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures, making a monthly temperature record difficult to set. November 2010 is the only "warmest month on record" as rated by NASA to occur during La Niña conditions. The November temperature record is all the more remarkable since we are near the minimum of the 11-year solar sunspot cycle. Global temperatures are cooler by about 0.1°C for the two years following a solar minimum, compared to global temperatures two years after solar maximum. Our current minimum in solar energy makes it much more difficult to set monthly global temperature records.

An average November for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., November was near-average in temperature, ranking as the 46th warmest November in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to November, was the 19th warmest such period on record. No states had a top-ten warmest or coldest November on record. November 2010 precipitation was also near average. Only Montana had a top-ten wettest November on record, and no states had top-ten driest November.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.4°C below average as of December 20, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.29°C below average (as of December 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events.

November 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in November 2010 was the 2nd lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2006, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. As of December 24, ice extent was the lowest on record for this time of year. Ice volume in November was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.


Figure 1. Sea ice extent in the Arctic as measured by satellites. Beginning in mid-December, ice extent was at record low levels for this time of year. Image credit: University of Bremen.

Major atmospheric pattern shift coming
The unseasonably cold weather over Europe and the Eastern U.S. is due to break between Christmas and New Year's, as the atmosphere undergoes a major shift in its circulation. The very unusual high pressure region over the Arctic is forecast to break down and be replaced by the typical low pressure region we expect to see in winter. After recording some of its coldest temperatures in 17 years this week, the UK may well see record highs on New Year's Eve as a result of the pattern shift. The pattern shift should bring the Eastern U.S. above-normal temperatures during the last few days of 2010, and a major New Year's Eve snowstorm to Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

The ZombieSat saga ends?
Last week, I blogged about ZombieSat, the rogue Galaxy-15 communications satellite that failed during a solar storm. ZombieSat has been spewing noise in the C-band microwave region that has been interfering with broadcasts from satellites in its path, including the key SES-1 satellite that relays most of the weather data wunderground and the National Weather Service uses. Within the next week, ZombieSat will close in on its sister satellite, Galaxy-16, which hosts the Public Radio Satellite Service (PRSS) feeds, among others. A few weeks ago, PRSS warned its customers (who include commercial stations as well as the nation's public broadcasters) that there would be a possibility of disruption to its services on or about December 26. But on Friday December 17, Intelsat announced that ZombieSat had lost its "lock" on Earth, resulting in a loss of power that caused the satellite's main interfering transponders to shut down. So it appears the ZombieSat saga is over, and a whole bunch of engineers and operations directors can enjoy Christmas weekend without worrying about a zombie satellite hanging 23,000 miles over their heads.

Happy holidays, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Figures the so-called "Global Warming" er I mean "Climate Change" would show up in the Opinion Pages of the New York Times.

At least they got the section right. Link
Geof, most recent report here is giving 65.... looks like it will be a good night for Junkanoo "rushing"....

Link
Hmmm... trying this again.

Junkanoo on Bay Street
Quoting westernmob:
Figures the so-called "Global Warming" er I mean "Climate Change" would show up in the Opinion Pages of the New York Times.

At least they got the section right. Link


By itself, the snow in Siberia cannot explain the cold weather. The fact is that the jet stream blocking pattern has allowed colder air masses to become entrenched within the continental interiors, and this is in part due to reduced Arctic ice cover allowing its cold air to flood into continents. This same pattern occurred last year. The Greenland block pulls air temperatures and even the Gulf Stream in the opposite way from usual. Therefore, warm air is pushed into northeastern Canada, while cold air sinks through North America and Europe. There has to be a cause for the Siberian snow increase as well. See here.
Quoting Ossqss:
How about a Sunday read bonus to compliment the comments from a pollution meteorologist on climate !

Things we don’t know – about climate


That column to which you linked--and I read the entire 3,000-word mess--is a prime example of denialism.

I looked around Google a bit, and wasn't able to find anything anywhere mentioning Paul Murphy's climate science credentials, but I'll take your word for it that he's a meteorologist. Of course, a meteorologist deals with short-term weather, so it's no surprise that Murphy would be unable to understand the wealth of data out there supporting rapid warming (and the fact that he's chosen to write in Anthony Watts' infamous contrarian site is pretty telling in and of itself).

Murphy's basic contention is that temperature readings are too inexact to give scientists anywhere near the precision needed to justify their claims of global warming. Okay, fine; let's go with that premise. Let's jettison every temperature reading warm or cold ever taken in the last 150 years. Let's start from a neutral place and say that we have absolutely no way of knowing from thermometer and satellite data whether the planet has warmed or cooled over the past 15 decades. All we know is what we see now. Let's do that.

Now, Mr. Murphy, I'd like you to please explain what's causing the many changes we see around the globe. You know, quickly melting sea ice. Rapidly vanishing glaciers. Rising oceans. Extended heat waves, more frequent catastrophic flooding, increasing extreme weather events. Dying coral reefs. Ocean acidifcation. Earlier onset of spring. Later onset of winter. And so on. Please tell us: if the planet isn't warming, what's causing all that?

When you can come up with a coherent answer, I'll be willing to listen. But I won't hold my breath...
Quoting BahaHurican:
2 things.

1)Amazing to be able to see the Great Bahama Bank imprinted as colder than surrounding deeper water in the 2010 map.

2) Some potentially perturbing potential in the MDR for next year unless there is a massive SST cooldown before March/April....

Read a comment posted after an article I read today where the poster was decrying GW by saying there have been radically fewer ATL storms since 2005.... ya think, given 2005 holds the record for greatest # of known ATL storms??? But the person was arguing that some climatologist was wrong because there had been fewer storms. I think my greater concern is larger numbers of the cat 3-5 storms. Sooner or later steering patterns won't be in our favor [and by that I mean the bulk of the ATL basin that is at risk for hurricane landfall] and we will have to deal with the aftermath of several major landfalling hurricanes at once. I think we will be extremely lucky to get through another decade without at least one repeat of 2004 or 2005 in terms of multiple major landfalls...


Even if that does occur, the wind shear should remain low. In El Nino years, wind shear typically increases across the MDR region, yet the shear wasn't a problem for most storms last season. Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Looking also at the vast area of open water N of Scandinavia and Russia... not normally clear like that.


The Gulf Stream typically leaves that entire patch ice-free, and the Baltic should be mostly clear as well but there's more ice there than ususal due to a perhaps weaker Gulf Stream as has occurred last winter leading to the stranding of 1,000 passengers on a ship from Sweden. There should in fact be no ice-free patches west of a line from central Labrador to Jakobshabn Isbrae, yet the entire Hudson Strait and Ungava Bay are unfrozen, and half of James Bay and half of the Davis Strait remain unfrozen as well. Those are the areas unfrozen in anomaly.



Current sea ice extent remains at record low. Currently, sea ice is below 2007-08 which was another La Nina Year.

snow in North Florida today! Woo Hoo!

yes I know folks elsewhere are not happy about the "s" word. Not trying to offend the masses, just enjoying seeing white stuff falling thru the palm trees.....
IMO the interesting thing for next year will be if and how soon we see an El Nino onset. No el nino will have some interesting implications for tracks, based on location / strength of highs....
507:


Yawn, and burr :)

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pr/ourlakes/background.html

Seems this site prohibits the display, via posting, of the imagery contained on this NOAA site. LOL ~ go figure, so here is the link and a quote from the NOAA site .....

"The Laurentian Great Lakes were formed nearly 20,000 years ago when the earth's climate warmed and the last glacial continental ice sheet retreated. The glacier, up to 2 miles thick, was so heavy and powerful it gouged out the earth's surface to create the lake basins. Meltwater from the retreating glacier filled the newly created basins. Approximately 3,500-4,000 years ago, the Great Lakes attained their modern levels and area."
Complete Update






Mount Washington (local Ski Hill) has set a record... 3 meters of snow in 4 days.

3 meters = 9.8 feet.
Quoting Skyepony:
Mesocyclones in the blizzard
snownado there real been in im
Outside chance of a 95L reprise..front is feeding it.

Click for loop
Pretty good fire in SW Brevard county tonight. Wind needs to lay down.

Dang Palm Bay firebug is suspected to have lit 3 on Christmas Day.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
snownado there real been in im


Made me check them out on YouTube. Look fun to play & ski through. Most were Snow Devils.

Quoting Skyepony:
Pretty good fire in SW Brevard county tonight. Wind needs to lay down.

Dang Palm Bay firebug is suspected to have lit 3 on Christmas Day.
thay wuz out smokin the weed lookin for a cheap trill


lol
46 here now, but with the wind chill…Wow! Good luck to our friends up north.
For Nea: Skye quoted Jeff Masters on the last page: "More words from Masters on the past year from that link..

In my thirty years as a meteorologist, I’ve never seen global weather patterns as strange as those we had in 2010."

Adding to the discussion on Dr. Grey from last week, does that change your opinion on meteorologists vs. climate scientist opinions? (Honest question, not poking the bear)
Quoting Skyepony:


Made me check them out on YouTube. Look fun to play & ski through. Most were Snow Devils.

i have been in a few snownados or what i believe could pass for one its a sudden spinup or turning of snow with strong winds and line of sight 0 mile they can last 3 to 5 minutes may see lightening or hear thunder and accum. can be in excess of 3 to 5 inches
LOL, take it as you may. This has many ironic, tentacle type associations to this thread :)



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thay wuz out smokin the weed lookin for a cheap trill


lol


Oh we could wish. Palm Bay has been plagued with people trying to burn it down for decades. The new trend seems to be to try & burn it down on a holiday. Someone burnt a bunch of houses last Mother's Day or the one before.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i have been in a few snownados or what i believe could pass for one its a sudden spinup or turning of snow with strong winds and line of sight 0 mile they can last 3 to 5 minutes may see lightening or hear thunder and accum. can be in excess of 3 to 5 inches


I wouldn't be surprised by one south of Boston tonight the way all those mesocyclones are coming in.
This is for New York (Manhattan)
Forecasts for New York — Return to U.S. Severe Weather Current Severe Weather

Blizzard Warning
Statement as of 4:32 PM EST on December 26, 2010

... Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 6 PM EST Monday...

* Hazards... heavy snow and strong winds... with considerable blowing and drifting of snow with near zero visibility at times.

* Accumulations... 15 to 20 inches... with locally higher amounts up to 2 feet possible.

* Impacts... extremely dangerous travel conditions due to significant snow accumulations... and strong winds causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow. Visibilities will be near zero at times... with whiteout conditions expected. Strong winds may also down some power lines... tree limbs... and Christmas decorations.

* Timing... snow will be heavy at times tonight... with possible rumbles of thunder. The snow will taper off from west to east Monday morning. Strong northwest winds will persist through Monday afternoon.

* Winds... .during the height of the storm tonight... north winds will increase to 25 to 40 mph with gusts of 45 to 60 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded... stay with your vehicle.






Here in South Shore MA. Expecting 18 inches of snow. 75 MPH wind gusts tonight between Midnight to 3pm. Storm still deepening. Good news is there is no work tomorrow.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
46 here now, but with the wind chill…Wow! Good luck to our friends up north.
When the wind blows it feels like 6 degress outside.And I had to go oputside in those conditions to scrap the ice off of my windsheild outside.The ice had covered the window from top to bottom,side to side.So yeah It's brutal out there.
And to all the southern floridians "Enjoy the 50's,becuase it's the only 50's you got".I think people would know where I got that one from.....
take that down
will the admins plzs banned the troll from dr m blog
this is a troll free site


NJ 21 at 3rd Ave., Newark
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


NJ 21 at 3rd Ave., Newark




what a mass
Quoting Tazmanian:



you have been re ported
You don't have to say it.Just press the magical sign and all will be whisped away.
Good Evening, Hope you all had a great Christmas including those family members who received snow in Goose Creek SC and across North Carolina. Currently 32F with windchill of 22F in Crestview Fl. winds are from the NW at 13. Forecast low of 20F tonight and a hard freeze warning out. High Monday of 49F with tomorrow nights low forecasted at 19F. Had to check my address and yep, I live in Florida!
Quoting SpiderTrolls:


Report this:


and by the way:




I feel sorry for you
Quoting washingtonian115:
You don't have to say it.Just press the magical sign and all will be whisped away.



good thinking
Raining here now and very windy! Crazy storm. I want to see Thundersnow!!
THATS IT
Facepalm smh(shaking my head).
Quoting RipplinH2O:
For Nea: Skye quoted Jeff Masters on the last page: "More words from Masters on the past year from that link..

In my thirty years as a meteorologist, I’ve never seen global weather patterns as strange as those we had in 2010."

Adding to the discussion on Dr. Grey from last week, does that change your opinion on meteorologists vs. climate scientist opinions? (Honest question, not poking the bear)


As the preponderance of the evidence points toward anthropogenic global warming, and as the vast majority of actual climate scientists are convinced of it to lesser and greater degrees, any meteorologist who has looked at the same evidence and interprets it the same way is probably on the right track.

Now, while there's no way to prove it so you'll have to take me at my word, if the situation were reversed--that is, if the evidence didn't point to AGW, and if only a tiny fraction of climate scientists subscribed to the theory--as much as I respect Dr. Masters, I would almost certainly look at him with as much skepticism as I do others currently on the wrong side of science.

Finally, I'd just add that there's a world of difference between a meteorologist with a PhD like Dr. Masters, and a non-degreed ex-TV weatherman such as, say, Anthony Watts. As such, giving their separate opinions on climate matters equal credence would be a bit unfair and unwise, don't you think?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Even if that does occur, the wind shear should remain low. In El Nino years, wind shear typically increases across the MDR region, yet the shear wasn't a problem for most storms last season. Link


I am thinking that it is more likely that we will see conditions like 2008 next year, as far as ENSO is concerned; for one, the SOI has been rebounding recently and is nearly up to its initial peak in September:



On the other hand, equatorial Pacific SSTs have been lagging for some reason, only reaching the "moderate" category despite extremely strong atmospheric circulation (see the SOI) anomalies as well as very cold subsurface anomalies. As discussed here for the MEI, SST anomalies in the eastern/central Pacific have been only around 1 STD below average, compared to 2 or more for other fields:

Consistent with full-blown strong La Niña conditions, all of the key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure), flag typical La Niña features, while no comparable El Niño-like features reach the opposite one sigma threshold. Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) denote significant negative sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the Maritime Continent, strong easterly anomalies (U) along the Equator and centered on the dateline (-2.4 standard deviations), significant northerly anomalies east of Fiji, while both sea surface (S) and air temperature (A) anomalies continue just above -1 sigma in the central and eastern tropical Pacific basin. Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote strong positive sea level pressure (P) anomalies (up to +2.1 standard deviations) over the eastern (sub-)tropical Pacific, strong southerly anomalies (V; up to 2 sigma) are found west of Hawaii, warm sea surface temperatures (S) reach almost two sigma northeast of Australia and west of Hawaii, and significantly increased cloudiness (C) covers most of Indonesia. Again, all of these cardinal anomalies flag La Niña conditions.


In fact, if SST anomalies had been more in line with the other fields, we would have had the strongest La Nina on record (as it was, it did set a record low for August-September and the second lowest overall, behind 1955). I don't know what this means, except maybe the high global temperatures this year have prevented SSTs from cooling as much as they otherwise would (don't forget that a negative PDO is also reinforcing La Nina, although perhaps this explains the strong atmospheric signal more than the SSTs). That said, it looks likely that we will see an extended La Nina episode:

Stay tuned for the next update (by January 7th) to see where the MEI will be heading next. While La Niña conditions are indeed guaranteed well into 2011, it remains to be seen whether it can rally once more to cross the -2 sigma barrier, and/or whether it will indeed last into 2012, as discussed four months ago on this page.


One more thing though is that the past decade has seen rapid cycling between El Nino and La Nina, with four El Ninos in an 8 year period (starting in 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009), the most on record (suggesting that the next one would be in 2011 if this pattern continued - it probably won't though; 2012 if it is like the last one).
two words for SpiderTrolls and is other frinds that he has up you go POOF
you be a real spiderdonkey
looks like it's going to be a mild tempetures for most of the east coast New Years.However that won't last long when that shot of artic air comes in around the 5th of January.
Quoting SpiderTrolls:


Report this:


and by the way:



Dude or Dude-ette, why do this ?

You expose your own insecurity and unhappiness to all. Trix are for Kids.

Just wrong, period.

Watch the volume :)





5.1 Earthquake, was Pottery shaken... or just stirred?

14.6 miles from his house.... I bet he felt it.

Quoting Neapolitan:


As the preponderance of the evidence points toward anthropogenic global warming, and as the vast majority of actual climate scientists are convinced of it to lesser and greater degrees, any meteorologist who has looked at the same evidence and interprets it the same way is probably on the right track.

Now, while there's no way to prove it so you'll have to take me at my word, if the situation were reversed--that is, if the evidence didn't point to AGW, and if only a tiny fraction of climate scientists subscribed to the theory--as much as I respect Dr. Masters, I would almost certainly look at him with as much skepticism as I do others currently on the wrong side of science.

Finally, I'd just add that there's a world of difference between a meteorologist with a PhD like Dr. Masters, and a non-degreed ex-TV weatherman such as, say, Anthony Watts. As such, giving their separate opinions on climate matters equal credence would be a bit unfair and unwise, don't you think?
I think I asked a simple question about your opinion on Dr. Masters statement as it relates to your comments on Dr. Grey, a "wonderful meteorologist, but not a climate scientist" and your comments on Watts are a severe digression...but I get the basics of your answer...thank you.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I am thinking that it is more likely that we will see conditions like 2008 next year, as far as ENSO is concerned; for one, the SOI has been rebounding recently and is nearly up to its initial peak in September:



On the other hand, equatorial Pacific SSTs have been lagging for some reason, only reaching the "moderate" category despite extremely strong atmospheric circulation (see the SOI) anomalies as well as very cold subsurface anomalies. As discussed here for the MEI, SST anomalies in the eastern/central Pacific have been only around 1 STD below average, compared to 2 or more for other fields:


Consistent with full-blown strong La Niña conditions, all of the key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure), flag typical La Niña features, while no comparable El Niño-like features reach the opposite one sigma threshold. Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) denote significant negative sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the Maritime Continent, strong easterly anomalies (U) along the Equator and centered on the dateline (-2.4 standard deviations), significant northerly anomalies east of Fiji, while both sea surface (S) and air temperature (A) anomalies continue just above -1 sigma in the central and eastern tropical Pacific basin. Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote strong positive sea level pressure (P) anomalies (up to +2.1 standard deviations) over the eastern (sub-)tropical Pacific, strong southerly anomalies (V; up to 2 sigma) are found west of Hawaii, warm sea surface temperatures (S) reach almost two sigma northeast of Australia and west of Hawaii, and significantly increased cloudiness (C) covers most of Indonesia. Again, all of these cardinal anomalies flag La Niña conditions.


In fact, if SST anomalies had been more in line with the other fields, we would have had the strongest La Nina on record (as it was, it did set a record low for August-September and the second lowest overall, behind 1955). I don't know what this means, except maybe the high global temperatures this year have prevented SSTs from cooling as much as they otherwise would (don't forget that a negative PDO is also reinforcing La Nina, although perhaps this explains the strong atmospheric signal more than the SSTs). That said, it looks likely that we will see an extended La Nina episode:


Stay tuned for the next update (by January 7th) to see where the MEI will be heading next. While La Niña conditions are indeed guaranteed well into 2011, it remains to be seen whether it can rally once more to cross the -2 sigma barrier, and/or whether it will indeed last into 2012, as discussed four months ago on this page.


One more thing though is that the past decade has seen rapid cycling between El Nino and La Nina, with four El Ninos in an 8 year period (starting in 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009), the most on record (suggesting that the next one would be in 2011 if this pattern continued - it probably won't though; 2012 if it is like the last one).
I had noticed this pattern to awhile back.i'm thinking 2011 will be almost like 2008,and that 2012 will be an El nino year.But It's not entierly written in stone yet.
Quoting Streetz313:
yo i'z tired of axin what yall is theenkin bout


Honest question... are you and your friend a pair of bored boarding school kids home on holiday, trying to write street, with too many zits, too much jay, and too much time on your hands? Or are you a screenwriter trying to brush up his dialogue skills? I swear I've seen your style before...

I especially like the careful phonetic spellings and the fact that you are placing your terminal consonants where they would be if you were prep school educated.

It's just interesting to me, so I'm asking.
Quoting RipplinH2O:
I think I asked a simple question about your opinion on Dr. Masters statement as it relates to your comments on Dr. Grey, a "wonderful meteorologist, but not a climate scientist" and your comments on Watts are a severe digression...but I get the basics of your answer...thank you.


Important to note the character assassination does not refute the science provided by those slandered. Just sayin, the ideologue ignores the difficult and forwards his agenda accordingly without conscience. Just look back and see it play out over and over on this blog :)

Hired hand perhaps? You betcha, LOL

spider have you had you're twizzle stick today you and streetz should get together and share one
Down 2 more degrees here...46, but the wind has died down.
Quoting Ossqss:


Dude or Dude-ette, why do this ?


They do it for the attention, of which there is certainly no shortage lately. Expect it to continue!
Quoting Neapolitan:


That column to which you linked--and I read the entire 3,000-word mess--is a prime example of denialism.

I looked around Google a bit, and wasn't able to find anything anywhere mentioning Paul Murphy's climate science credentials, but I'll take your word for it that he's a meteorologist. Of course, a meteorologist deals with short-term weather, so it's no surprise that Murphy would be unable to understand the wealth of data out there supporting rapid warming (and the fact that he's chosen to write in Anthony Watts' infamous contrarian site is pretty telling in and of itself).

Murphy's basic contention is that temperature readings are too inexact to give scientists anywhere near the precision needed to justify their claims of global warming. Okay, fine; let's go with that premise. Let's jettison every temperature reading warm or cold ever taken in the last 150 years. Let's start from a neutral place and say that we have absolutely no way of knowing from thermometer and satellite data whether the planet has warmed or cooled over the past 15 decades. All we know is what we see now. Let's do that.

Now, Mr. Murphy, I'd like you to please explain what's causing the many changes we see around the globe. You know, quickly melting sea ice. Rapidly vanishing glaciers. Rising oceans. Extended heat waves, more frequent catastrophic flooding, increasing extreme weather events. Dying coral reefs. Ocean acidifcation. Earlier onset of spring. Later onset of winter. And so on. Please tell us: if the planet isn't warming, what's causing all that?

When you can come up with a coherent answer, I'll be willing to listen. But I won't hold my breath...


I know... Mankind, that wascolee wabbit, is solely to blame.

No matter what the weather, hot or cold, wet or dry, according to you, The Sky is Falling, we are all going to die and man is at fault

You call that interpretation of yours, an intelligent, scientific and unbiased response to what was written??

How absurd. Your AGW colored glasses totally disqualify you from any serious consideration as to having any possibility of being taken seriously.

Just because AGW came to the table first, with its ridiculous claims, does not entitle it to any degree of favoritism when it come to the evaluation of competing interpretations of the same observations.

Your questions are so obviously disingenuous as to be sadly comical. The ridicule and elitist demeanor in your writing style destroys any sense of serious interest on your part.

You claim to be here on the blog to support the cause of AGW; yet your writing style, belies a disdain for anyone who does not agree with your views. It certainly doesn't contribute to the advancement of AGW in any measurable way. Why else would you stoop to name calling like Luddite and denialist?

Regardless, what encourages me is that the truly intelligent ones on this blog who see the fraud that is AGW are learning a great deal from you on how little respect the AGW people really hold for people who disagree with them. They are having their eyes opened wide. Soon AGW will be escorted to the trash bin where it belongs.

We can only hope it happens before the money grubbers steal billions of tax dollars from hard working middle class people who will, in the final analysis, have nothing to show for it except for less food on the table and no Christmas presents under the tree.




Quoting SpiderTrolls:





Since you image sourced to a graphics site, the geeks have it. Maybe a few years beyond high school, at least temporally, if not emotionally.

Thanks for answering. Stay warm.
Quoting RipplinH2O:
I think I asked a simple question about your opinion on Dr. Masters statement as it relates to your comments on Dr. Grey, a "wonderful meteorologist, but not a climate scientist" and your comments on Watts are a severe digression...but I get the basics of your answer...thank you.

I only brought up Watts in an attempt to head off at the pass anyone who accuses me of backing Dr. Masters merely because he supports the theory of AGW, while discounting guys like Watts because they don't.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


They do it for the attention, of which there is certainly no shortage lately. Expect it to continue!
Maybe people should take my advise.They should just read the post their interested in,and qout if they want or come back later to see if the admin have taken care of the problem.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sorry Orca. I'm really not trying to argue with anyone. Just trying to understand what type of character is posting. Obviously not what is being presented, so I'm just interested.

Stay warm.
590, Yep a voice of reason, finally! but it goes beyond the obvious :)

It looks likely that the SOI will continue to rise for the next few days and may end the month at +25 or more, which would be a new monthly record, surpassing +23 in December 1950:



(note the anomalously low pressures over Indonesia and the strong South Pacific high; pressures are also anomalously high over both poles, not just over the Arctic)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Be part of the cure...not part of the problem.


+100, well said Orca.

Quoting Ossqss:


Important to note the character assassination does not refute the science provided by those slandered. Just sayin, the ideologue ignores the difficult and forwards his agenda accordingly without conscience. Just look back and see it play out over and over on this blog :)

Hired hand perhaps? You betcha, LOL


"Character assassination"? I merely pointed out--as I will again here--that equating Dr. Masters and guys like Watts where it comes to climate science isn't wise, that's all. If you or anyone else wishes to give the sides equal credence, that's certainly your prerogative--but most reasonable folks know that the difference between a met with a PhD and an undegreed ex-TV weatherman is night and day.
Quoting Neapolitan:

"Character assassination"? I merely pointed out--as I will again here--that equating Dr. Masters and guys like Watts where it comes to climate science isn't wise, that's all. If you or anyone else wishes to give the sides equal credence, that's certainly your prerogative--but most reasonable folks know that the difference between a met with a PhD and an undegreed ex-TV weatherman is night and day.


So tell us, are you compensated or have you been solicited from this web site for your participation ?

It is obvious to many that you have much time on your hands :)

Quoting Neapolitan:


As the preponderance of the evidence points toward anthropogenic global warming, and as the vast majority of actual climate scientists are convinced of it to lesser and greater degrees, any meteorologist who has looked at the same evidence and interprets it the same way is probably on the right track.

Now, while there's no way to prove it so you'll have to take me at my word, if the situation were reversed--that is, if the evidence didn't point to AGW, and if only a tiny fraction of climate scientists subscribed to the theory--as much as I respect Dr. Masters, I would almost certainly look at him with as much skepticism as I do others currently on the wrong side of science.

Finally, I'd just add that there's a world of difference between a meteorologist with a PhD like Dr. Masters, and a non-degreed ex-TV weatherman such as, say, Anthony Watts. As such, giving their separate opinions on climate matters equal credence would be a bit unfair and unwise, don't you think?


What a bogus conclusion.

Having a PhD does not, in any way, impart in that individual, any superior ability to interpret anything. All it says it that they studied hard, stood before a group of fellows of like mind and were awarded a certificate of having studied the subject and meeting the criteria. After that, they are on their own. It does not carry with it the Wand of Infallibility as you seem to desperately want to believe

Try reading the book, " I Fired My Doctor and Saved My Life " and see for yourself how having all the education in the world does not equate into being right about anything. Google it if you are interested.

Saying that a PhD trumps something less is simply elitist in its most disgusting display.


This storm is crankin..... check the pressure !



Nantucket, Massachusetts (Airport)
Updated: 21 min 0 sec ago

40 °F
Light Rain Mist
Windchill: 29 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: 29 mph from the NE

Wind Gust: 41 mph
Pressure: 28.99 in (Falling)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Quoting washingtonian115:
If you live in the northeast then you have a strong chance of seeing a blizzard with high winds and snow totals of 11 inches plus.


I thought you knew better ;-)

Duke Energy has knocked the outages in the Carolinas from 12,000 to 1700. Thanks to all those linesmen out there, risking their lives.
Quoting calusakat:


What a bogus conclusion.

Having a PhD does not, in any way, impart in that individual, any superior ability to interpret anything. All it says it that they studied hard, stood before a group of fellows of like mind and was awarded a certificate of having studied the subject and meeting the criteria. After that, they are on their own. It does not carry with the Wand of Infallibility as you seem to desperately want to believe

Try reading the book, " I Fired My Doctor and Saved My Life " and see for yourself how having all the education in the world does not equate into being right about anything.

Saying that a PhD trumps something less is simply elitist in its most disgusting display.



Now that response is anti-intellectualism at its finest: doctoral degrees mean nothing; experts are morons; all scientific opinions have equal weight and merit, whether they came from a person who's studied at a high level in a single discipline for decades, or just some under-educated hack who throws up a website and starts spouting anti-scientific nonsense.

Good luck! Let me know how that works out for you... ;-)
Quoting Streetz313:
koritheman, i cantz beleeve u gon speek to me like dat..my momma smoked crack derring her pregnancy and has ben in jail since i wuz 6 yrs old fo killin my popz, but thankz to u washingtonian, u iz reallee stand up


I reiterate: obvious troll is obvious.

Also, needz moar subtlety.
Quoting Ossqss:

It is obvious to many that you have much time on your hands :)>

Perhaps--though not enough to dig around the net looking for and linking to thirty-year-old pop songs. ;-)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Also, needz moar subtlety.

Lolz...
Quoting MissNadia:
This storm is crankin..... check the pressure !



Nantucket, Massachusetts (Airport)
Updated: 21 min 0 sec ago

40 °F
Light Rain Mist
Windchill: 29 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: 29 mph from the NE

Wind Gust: 41 mph
Pressure: 28.99 in (Falling)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16


That's quite intense. I'd love to experience the kind of wind you guys are, though.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I reiterate: obvious troll is obvious.

Also, needz moar subtlety.


KMan, if you must quote the trolls, at least delete their comment. Please.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I reiterate: obvious troll is obvious.

Also, needz moar subtlety.


Its the same guy who trolls the Tropics Chat too during the season.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


KMan, if you must quote the trolls, at least delete their comment. Please.


Noted. My apologies.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its the same guy who trolls the Tropics Chat too during the season.


I don't really use tropics chat, so I don't know the person to whom you're referring to.

As pointless as it was, I only fed him for the laughs. I have nothing better to do this evening.
Looks like Admin must not have come back from their lunch hour yet... hope they finish that sammich soon.
Quoting Greyelf:
Looks like Admin must not have come back from their lunch hour yet... hope they finish that sammich soon.


611 has already been modded.
Quoting Greyelf:
Looks like Admin must not have come back from their lunch hour yet... hope they finish that sammich soon.


Quoting KoritheMan:


611 has already been modded.


It's common knowledge that admin does not actively monitor WU blogs. It has taken days to get rid of the real bad guys - impostors. As someone stated a bit earlier, a post will automatically be zapped if it gets 10 (?) negatives.
Quoting Streetz313:




Huh?
Beam me up Scottie there's no intelligent life down here.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Hey, wait a minute - that's not 30 year old pop. Reported!
Quoting Neapolitan:

Perhaps--though not enough to dig around the net looking for and linking to thirty-year-old pop songs. ;-)


LOL, you have not the experience to appreciate old stuff? I enjoy the electronic cerebral vector :)

But no answer to the question?

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hey, wait a minute - that's not 30 year old pop. Reported!



Re-reported!

Good evening.
Hello everyone I dont post on here often but have been a member for years. Me and my friend are going up to a place named Lake George in New York. Its about and hour and a half north of Albany, New York. On Accuweathers forecast for the 30th of December till the 6th of January. Have them getting little to no snow. I wanted to know if this looks like its going to hold, or could there be any chance of seeing some good snow. The reason I'm asking is because we have never seen snow, and we really want to see it come down. Thanks everybody. Josh
Quoting Ossqss:


LOL, you have not the experience to appreciate old stuff? I enjoy the electronic cerebral vector :)

But no answer to the question?


He does set himself up nicely.
Quoting KoritheMan:


611 has already been modded.


I think a comment is automatically removed if three or more people flag it, while Admin is needed to ban somebody, so he'll probably be around for awhile, depending on when Admin comes back.

Quoting KoritheMan:


That's quite intense. I'd love to experience the kind of wind you guys are, though.


Especially if it was also snowing; I have never actually seen a blizzard, or even know if one ever happened here, even this storm often referred to as a blizzard wasn't really one:

For a blizzard to have occurred, the following conditions must have prevailed for a period of 3 or more consecutive hours:

* Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater, and
* Considerable falling and/or blowing snow that reduces visibility frequently to less than 1/4 mile.


(note that a blizzard can occur even without any falling snow if there is already snow on the ground)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Now that response is anti-intellectualism at its finest: doctoral degrees mean nothing; experts are morons; all scientific opinions have equal weight and merit, whether they came from a person who's studied at a high level in a single discipline for decades, or just some under-educated hack who throws up a website and starts spouting anti-scientific nonsense.

Good luck! Let me know how that works out for you... ;-)


Did I use the word MORON?? Did I say they didn't deserve respect?

More elitist trash, from one of the best spreaders.

Being experts, does not make them right. Oh, I get it, you don't know what the word infallibility means. Look it up.

PhD's are not little fairy godmothers and godfathers who wave their wand and are proclaimed true and correct. In this case, the preponderance of clean data shows that the hypothesis of AGW is so flawed that it MUST go back to the back office for a re-write.

Instead of ridiculing the little guys which you are so arrogantly doing, maybe you could change those fogged-up elitist glasses of yours for a clean clear regular pair that would allow you to see truth for a change. The little guys are getting it right and the PhD's need to try a little humble pie and help save the planet for real and insist on saving face later.

Isn't your nose working, don't you smell the stinky pile you are standing in? Thats the AGW pile that needs to be taken to the trash bin for garbage pick-up real soon before it stinks up the whole world.


Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Re-reported!

Good evening.


LOL Hey Vet. Nice tune.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


LOL Hey Vet. Nice tune.


Thanks, Bud!
@ Skye... why do they want 2 burn down Palm Bay?

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:




It's common knowledge that admin does not actively monitor WU blogs. It has taken days to get rid of the real bad guys - impostors. As someone stated a bit earlier, a post will automatically be zapped if it gets 10 (?) negatives.


I stand corrected then.

EDIT: Well hell, STL says three markings lead to moderation, while you say ten. Which is it? This is a serious discrepancy here...
Quoting tampahurricane:
Hello everyone I dont post on here often but have been a member for years. Me and my friend are going up to a place named Lake George in New York. Its about and hour and a half north of Albany, New York. On Accuweathers forecast for the 30th of December till the 6th of January. Have them getting little to no snow. I wanted to know if this looks like its going to hold, or could there be any chance of seeing some good snow. The reason I'm asking is because we have never seen snow, and we really want to see it come down. Thanks everybody. Josh
Hey, Josh. IIRC, Lake George is just south of Lake Champlain area. Even if it doesn't actually snow there is likely 2 be snow on the ground. Given some long range forecasts I've seen, I would be surprised if they didn't get at least a few flurries. In any case, u r bound 2 see some snow; just depends on whether it'll be falling on u or just lying there....



I'll let the blog speak: shall we deliver a smackdown, or ignore our ill-mannered and unlettered new poster?
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I think a comment is automatically removed if three or more people flag it, while Admin is needed to ban somebody, so he'll probably be around for awhile, depending on when Admin comes back.



Especially if it was also snowing; I have never actually seen a blizzard, or even know if one ever happened here, even this storm often referred to as a blizzard wasn't really one:

For a blizzard to have occurred, the following conditions must have prevailed for a period of 3 or more consecutive hours:

* Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater, and
* Considerable falling and/or blowing snow that reduces visibility frequently to less than 1/4 mile.


(note that a blizzard can occur even without any falling snow if there is already snow on the ground)


Meh. I'm not too fond of cold air, so a blizzard is not something I want to experience. I'd take a hurricane first, to be honest. Which is more realistic anyway, considering my location.
647. P451
This storm is just plain taking a wild dump all over the Jersey Shore.

Tinton Falls, NJ
as of 1030pm et
24.2F (Steady)
Heavy Snow
Near Zero Vis


15"+ right now. Numerous readings of 14-16" throughout the front yard. Numerous readings of 18-20" in the back.

Highest drift is 26"
Lowest scour is 9"

Looks like what... at least six more hours of this intensity? That's another foot of snow.

The wind is really starting to pick back up after a lull as we get back into another heavy band.

Here's from about 20 minutes ago. It's been doing this for about 7 hours now at the same clip approx 2" per hour average.

Short Video

Here's the 15" measurement which I think was as conservative as I could go with this. Will get better pictures tomorrow once this thing winds down.




Back slider with snow a third up the door.







Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



I'll let the blog speak: shall we deliver a smackdown, or ignore our ill-mannered and unlettered new poster?


The former. It's more fun. Futile, but fun. Who says lack of futility is a requisite for fun, anyway?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



I'll let the blog speak: shall we deliver a smackdown, or ignore our ill-mannered and unlettered new poster?

Lol..if you wanna give em a "krussmus" present by feeding them, feel free. I'm pretty good at ignoring the silly trolls, but it might be fun to watch.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I stand corrected then.

EDIT: Well hell, STL says three markings lead to moderation, while you say ten. Which is it? This is a serious discrepancy here...


I thought someone said 10, looked back and couldn't find it. I must be snowdazed.
Also @ Josh.... Wunderground is saying warm on NY day, but by Sunday overnight into Monday looking like a better chance of snow. Like I said, u may not get a blizzard or anything, but I'd be very surprised if u don't get any snowfall at all in the Lake George area during the first week of January....
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I would offer this to those who have, and are obviouly seeing this ! Living is different to those who don't have. Just sayin and out >>>>>>>> Something gave us the opportunity to be here, ya think ???????

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



I'll let the blog speak: shall we deliver a smackdown, or ignore our ill-mannered and unlettered new poster?


I've chosen to ignore them for now, but by all means, fire away.

Meanwhile, back in the Bahamas, it's 65 at the airport; coastal wx stations are giving 61, with winds ranging from 15 to 30 mph [18 was reported at NAS], veering from W to NW....

Like I said, great Junkanoo weather... so long as it doesn't rain, since all the costumes r cardboard and crepe paper....
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I've chosen to ignore them for now, but by all means, fire away.



Love this song.
Quoting P451:
This storm is just plain taking a wild dump all over the Jersey Shore.

Tinton Falls, NJ
as of 1030pm et
24.2F (Steady)
Heavy Snow
Near Zero Vis


15"+ right now. Numerous readings of 14-16" throughout the front yard. Numerous readings of 18-20" in the back.

Highest drift is 26"
Lowest scour is 9"

Looks like what... at least six more hours of this intensity? That's another foot of snow.

The wind is really starting to pick back up after a lull as we get back into another heavy band.

Here's from about 20 minutes ago. It's been doing this for about 7 hours now at the same clip approx 2" per hour average.

Short Video

Here's the 15" measurement which I think was as conservative as I could go with this. Will get better pictures tomorrow once this thing winds down.




Back slider with snow a third up the door.







Brrr.... just looking at the pics is making me shiver.... lol


LMAO.

2 to 1, so I'll refrain.

Thanks for the tune!

Modifying: Sorry Grey, I missed yours, initially.

3 to 1
OK Thank you. I will be checking in to see if anything changes. Because I know this storm everyone is having now kinda came out of nowhere. Things can change very fast, so I hope we get at least a few inches of fresh stuff while we are up there.
Lol...actually I was telling you to go ahead that it might be fun to watch. :)
Quoting Ossqss:


I would offer this to those who have, and are obviouly seeing this ! Living is different to those who don't have. Just sayin and out >>>>>>>> Something gave us the opportunity to be here, ya think ???????




Good night, Oss.
Quoting Greyelf:
Lol...actually I was telling you to go ahead that it might be fun to watch. :)



LOL.

Ah, I charge the bull often enough. You'll have many more opportunities to observe, methinks.
u guys realize that as soon as the trolls realize u r having fun they will stop.... there's no use in U having fun at THEIR expense... lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
u guys realize that as soon as the trolls realize u r having fun they will stop.... there's no use in U having fun at THEIR expense... lol


Good point. Darn. :/
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



LOL.

Ah, I charge the bull often enough. You'll have many more opportunities to observe, methinks.


I'm sure!
Quoting BahaHurican:
u guys realize that as soon as the trolls realize u r having fun they will stop.... there's no use in U having fun at THEIR expense... lol


Interesting hypothesis! But not sure of its validity. ;-)
Quoting BahaHurican:
u guys realize that as soon as the trolls realize u r having fun they will stop.... there's no use in U having fun at THEIR expense... lol



Another, LMAO. Nice!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I'm sure!


You know me well!
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


You know me well!


Takes one...
Hmmm... eastern MA has a blizzard warning... freezing fog in Boston area... sure am glad I'm not visiting friends / family there tonight..... lol
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Takes one...


LOL!


Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... eastern MA has a blizzard warning... freezing fog in Boston area... sure am glad I'm not visiting friends / family there tonight..... lol


Think that's bad?

Current Weather Conditions:
Mount Washington, NH, United States

Wind from the NE (050 degrees) at 70 MPH (61 KT) gusting to 79 MPH (69 KT)
Visibility less than 1 mile
Sky conditions obscured
Weather Light snow Blowing snow Freezing fog
Temperature 6 F (-14 C)
Windchill -25 F (-32 C)
Dew Point 6 F (-14 C)
Relative Humidity 100%
Hey, I think +50 is bad... so judge -25... lol
Got a nice snow going here in Saratoga Springs, NY. Looks like 5-8 inches overnight and another 2-4 in the morning. Not too bad.
Quoting Neapolitan:

"Character assassination"? I merely pointed out--as I will again here--that equating Dr. Masters and guys like Watts where it comes to climate science isn't wise, that's all. If you or anyone else wishes to give the sides equal credence, that's certainly your prerogative--but most reasonable folks know that the difference between a met with a PhD and an undegreed ex-TV weatherman is night and day.


As somebody else stated, this is a case of "poisoning the well", a method used to try to get people to stay away from sites they consider "wrong".

Sometimes it works. After reading through several sites, and finding out that there were two main targets (WUWT and Climate Audit), had me curious enough to check them out.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I thought you knew better ;-)

Duke Energy has knocked the outages in the Carolinas from 12,000 to 1700. Thanks to all those linesmen out there, risking their lives.
I have family members that live in,and around Raleigh,and they said they have never seen like this before.Their have been local reports down there that due to the heavy wet like snow tree branches,and limbs were falling which were the main problems for power outages.
Envious over here in Michigan that we can't get snow storms this awesome.

That storm sure doesn't seem like it's in a hurry at this late hour.

Boston - Logan has one heck of an observation right now...


Last Update on Dec 27, 12:54 am EST
Heavy Snow Blowing Snow Freezing Fog and Windy
Temperature: 27 °F (-3 °C)
Humidity: 92 %
Wind Speed: N 31 G 44 MPH
Barometer: 29.03" (982.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 25 °F (-4 °C)
Wind Chill: 11 °F (-12 °C)
Visibility: 0.25 mi.
This is from just recently, off of TrafficLand's cameras for the New York City area.



US46 @ NJ23 southbound. Those cars in the entrance ramp can't clear the snow bank to get onto the relatively-plowed highway. Yikes!
Complete Update






Have you planted your tree today (well, in the Northeast and Nebraska, try April 29...)?

Trees for Houston (by reference)

Let's see... 0.9 (headed toward -0.1) and pulled 3 Bradfords purchased on sale from an organization which knows lot's about appliances but little about invasives.

Had fruit on one of the Bradfords... not allowed.

Yup, brought down trees today (going to anti-erosion efforts on the beach). INVASIVES (yugly).

Good night.
Quoting aerojad:
This is from just recently, off of TrafficLand's cameras for the New York City area.



US46 @ NJ23 southbound. Those cars in the entrance ramp can't clear the snow bank to get onto the relatively-plowed highway. Yikes!


As P.T. Barnum once said.... well...
Update on the Moscow poweroutage.. that does look like it was rain freezing on impact & not hail. Odd inversion..

Freak snowy weather that wrought havoc across Europe hit Russia over the weekend, disrupting air and railway traffic and leaving tens of thousands of people without electricity. Within minutes, freezing rain coated electricity wires, trees and roads with ice. Power cables snapped, causing massive power outages that affected over 100,000 people around Moscow, and many more in other regions in central Russia. Russia's busiest airport, Domodedovo, outside Moscow halted all flights on Sunday after power supply was cut. Suburban trains ground to a halt and roads turned into icy paths, leading to numerous traffic accidents. At least one person was killed by a falling tree in the Moscow region and hundreds suffered fractured bones and other injuries on slippery pavements. Russia's Chief Sanitary Inspector Gennady Onishchenko urged Muscovites to stay home to avoid possible injury. Weather experts said central regions of Russia experienced a rare weather phenomenon when the air 1.5 km above the ground was warm whereas surface temperatures were below zero Centigrade causing rain drops to freeze as soon as they hit the ground.
Looks like the grand prize is going to go to New Jersey..

LYNDHURST (outside of Newark and NYC) 29.0inches 230 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

That was 2 hours ago... probably pick up another inch or so before it's all done.


Just about done here in Oceanport, NJ (coastal NJ) and estimated at around 24-30". This was a textbook blizzard (not the kind they talk about on the news).

My wife and I (both meteorologists) were out looking for a lost corgi puppy in Sea Bright when the first flake fell at 9am and conditions deteriorated rapidly. (hope he hunkered down)... at the peak last night we had 2-3" per hour snowfall, 20-30mph winds (gusting over 45), zero visibility and at least four blasts of Thundersnow, now that's cool!!!
Morning,
Check the pressure and it is rising !

Quaise, Nantucket, Massachusetts (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago

38.1 °F
Rain Mist
Windchill: 28 °F
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 36 °F
Wind: 21.0 mph from the SE

Wind Gust: 33.0 mph
Pressure: 28.44 in (Rising)
Visibility: 5.0
Quoting hcubed:


As somebody else stated, this is a case of "poisoning the well", a method used to try to get people to stay away from sites they consider "wrong".

I'd have to disagree with your assessment. My words were in direct response to those who say things like, "Yes, Dr. Masters supports the theory of Global Warming, while Anthony Watts doesn't. They're both meteorologists, so who's to say who's right and who's wrong?" It's not "poisoning the well" to question the credibility of an "expert"; attorneys do it all the time in court.

Simply put, Dr. Masters has a PhD in meteorology, while Watts (to name but one example) is an ex-TV weatherman who holds no known degrees in any field of science. If one wishes to say that makes them even in terms of credibility and knowledge, they're certainly free to do so--but I personally think that would be unwise.

It's funny to me that so many contrarians repeatedly claim that all or most government and university climate science sites are chock full of fakery, trickery, fraud, deceit, and just general hogwash--yet when a contrarian climate site's accuracy is questioned, that's considered "poisoning the well".

And so it goes... ;-)
688. IKE
28.8 my morning low.


RIP Teena.....

Quoting Neapolitan:

I'd have to disagree with your assessment. My words were in direct response to those who say things like, "Yes, Dr. Masters supports the theory of Global Warming, while Anthony Watts doesn't. They're both meteorologists, so who's to say who's right and who's wrong?" It's not "poisoning the well" to question the credibility of an "expert"; attorneys do it all the time in court.

Simply put, Dr. Masters has a PhD in meteorology, while Watts (to name but one example) is an ex-TV weatherman who holds no known degrees in any field of science. If one wishes to say that makes them even in terms of credibility and knowledge, they're certainly free to do so--but I personally think that would be unwise.

It's funny to me that so many contrarians repeatedly claim that all or most government and university climate science sites are chock full of fakery, trickery, fraud, deceit, and just general hogwash--yet when a contrarian climate site's accuracy is questioned, that's considered "poisoning the well".

And so it goes... ;-)


What about Dr Richard Linzen? He is Proffessor Emitius MIT witha Phd in Atmospheric Sciences. He doesn'e buy the AGW theory either. (I probably spelled all that wrong but ya'll get the point)
what happened to the blog Dr.Masters did a few days ago. maybe im crazy and he didnt write a new one, I though it talked more in depth about the change of pressure at the Arctic? i know he talked about it on the 23rd some, but maybe i dreampt about it.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


What about Dr Richard Linzen? He is Proffessor Emitius MIT witha Phd in Atmospheric Sciences. He doesn'e buy the AGW theory either. (I probably spelled all that wrong but ya'll get the point)


Lindzen isn't a climate scientist ("atmospheric sciences" doesn't tell me much other than that he studies the atmosphere - not necessarily climate related, even if both do involve the atmosphere). Just because they have a degree in something doesn't make them an expert in something else (sort of what the Oregon petition does, but in this case, only the most basic degree is needed, even if it is in something like medicine, and some of the actual scientists are either dead(!) or were added against their wishes).

Dr. Masters isn't a climate scientist either, but I would trust what he says more because what he says is what climate scientists say, not some hack.

Oh yeah, and Lindzen's theories, such as clouds being a negative feedback and thus no (or little) global warming, are bunk based on what climate scientists say - including real-world data - after all, nothing can beat that, no matter what some claim about the accuracy of models:

Clouds Likely Created Positive Climate Feedback In Past Decade
12.13.10

A Texas A&M scientist's study of 10 years of NASA and other data found that clouds likely responded to carbon dioxide-induced global warming by amplifying that warming.

"If you ask the question, how could mainstream science be wrong about climate change? There would have to be something in the climate system that would cancel the warming," Dessler said. "One of the main places that could be would be clouds. Based on this work, I don't really see any evidence that that would happen."



Journal of Climate: New cloud feedback results “provide support for the high end of current estimates of global climate sensitivity”

Co-author Kevin Hamilton concludes, “If our model results prove to be representative of the real global climate, then climate is actually more sensitive to perturbations by greenhouse gases than current global models predict, and even the highest warming predictions would underestimate the real change we could see.“


And Roy Spencer, who has similar claims (he came up as the first result - really - when I searched for the above articles), is even more disqualified in my view because he believes in nonsense like creationism. And above all, things like ice age-interglacial transitions require that a major positive feedback be present (since the changes from orbital variations are too small to explain such large changes in temperature). And yes, water vapor (which, including clouds, is 75% of the greenhouse effect) is the most important greenhouse gas but Earth wouldn't be that comfortable at all without CO2 since it is only a feedback.

Note also that two of my links are to NASA and the other to a blog, but referencing a reputable scientific journal, unlike what many post.
Quoting keywestdingding:
what happened to the blog Dr.Masters did a few days ago. maybe im crazy and he didnt write a new one, I though it talked more in depth about the change of pressure at the Arctic? i know he talked about it on the 23rd some, but maybe i dreampt about it.


You can find older blogs by either clicking on Dr. Masters' handle at the top (doing so will show the most recent blogs) or going to the archives on the right under his pictures where it says previous entries. This is the one you are referring to:

Europe's cold and snowy winter forecast to gradually ease
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'd have to disagree with your assessment. My words were in direct response to those who say things like, "Yes, Dr. Masters supports the theory of Global Warming, while Anthony Watts doesn't. They're both meteorologists, so who's to say who's right and who's wrong?" It's not "poisoning the well" to question the credibility of an "expert"; attorneys do it all the time in court.

Simply put, Dr. Masters has a PhD in meteorology, while Watts (to name but one example) is an ex-TV weatherman who holds no known degrees in any field of science. If one wishes to say that makes them even in terms of credibility and knowledge, they're certainly free to do so--but I personally think that would be unwise.

It's funny to me that so many contrarians repeatedly claim that all or most government and university climate science sites are chock full of fakery, trickery, fraud, deceit, and just general hogwash--yet when a contrarian climate site's accuracy is questioned, that's considered "poisoning the well".

And so it goes... ;-)



The East Anglia leaks show clearly that those same so-called scientists, PhD's included, all accepted the idea that it was okay to alter data. They also concurred that it was appropriate to prevent access to both the field data as well as the underlying computer programming data calling it proprietary.

You call that science?

Do they teach PhD's that sort of nonsense in schools today?

Stop being a lemming.

Weather science stopped being 'blind' long ago and their bias is so profuse and outrageous that their conclusions must be challenged at every turn.

According to you, every weather event is AGW.

How absurd.

And thankfully, due in large part to the contributions of people like yourself, the rest of the world is beginning to see the silliness and fraud that is AGW.

Keep it up, your help is, indeed, greatly needed.




thanks MichaelSTL, but i though for some reason he had posted one since the 24th. I'm probably imagined it. BRAIN FREEZE!! LOL
Also, it looks like what Dr. Masters said about the pattern easing may not come true - the NAO is forecast to drop through the end of the year, as well as the Arctic Oscillation, if not as much (that said, it looks like the eastern U.S. will see a break, if my forecast high of 58 on New Year's Eve is any indication, but it drops to 31 a couple days later):

Quoting calusakat:
The East Anglia leaks show clearly that those same so-called scientists, PhD's included, all accepted the idea that it was okay to alter data. They also concurred that it was appropriate to prevent access to both the field data as well as the underlying computer programming data calling it proprietary.


The fact that you are still claiming that some scandal was uncovered is telling. I suppose you missed all of the news about no misconduct being found - multiple times (then, i suppose you watch Faux News, which lies about everything, not just climate change; just Google "fox news lies distortions" if you don't believe me). Here are some to start with:

US 'climategate' scientist all but cleared of misconduct

Climategate Scientist Cleared in Inquiry, Again (note the "again")

’Climategate’ Scientists Cleared of Manipulating Data

The 'climategate' inquiry at last vindicates Phil Jones – and so must I (wow, the reporter himself apologizes!)
Happy Holidays!

The sun is up in north Florida, and still we are well below freezing.
When is this unseasonably warm weather supposed to hit? I am ready for it.

For the holidays, my brother-in-law admitted he is a climate conservative. It is hard to keep your ears open and re-explain about sea level rise, temperature trends, what is and isn't urban heat island effects, etc.

It is great to have Dr. Masters blogs on various topics to refer folks to.

Thanks for that gift.
Folks, we are now surpassing the pressure of the Storm of the Century in 1993, our current Superstorm is now down to 962 mlb. IMPRESSIVE!!! This is the most strongest storm the East Coast has seen in a decade!
island style today hunkered down surrounded by candles and a ipad. cold to the bone
Quoting biff4ugo:
Happy Holidays!

The sun is up in north Florida, and still we are well below freezing.
When is this unseasonably warm weather supposed to hit? I am ready for it.

Maybe soon. But there haven't been a lot of out-of-the-ordinary temps in the CONUS over the past 24 hours; just five daily record highs or high minimums were set or tied, and only four daily record lows or low maximums. It's been a different story for the past week, however; daily record highs/high minimums have outnumbered daily record lows/low minimums by an almost unbelievable 721 to 13, a ratio of just over 55:1. So while things may and will change, this first week of winter has been a warm one all over the country.
Negative NAO = colder weather for SECONUS Michael?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Negative NAO = colder weather for SECONUS Michael?


CyberTeddy, this storm even beat the 2007 April Nor'easter. Had a pressure of 969 mlb. Our storm is down to 962 mlb. Just 2 more mlb. and it will be tied with the 1993 Superstorm. A rare event happening here.
Superstorm 2010, (Storm of the Decade)!!



Quoting CybrTeddy:
Negative NAO = colder weather for SECONUS Michael?


Unfortunately, yes (if you don't like cold weather); here are the NAO patterns for the positive phase (reversed for a -NAO), note that it is strongest in January:



Also, the previously negative PNA is becoming more neutral, which makes it more likely to be colder in the SE since the negative phase promote warmer temperatures (again, the map is for the positive phase):



Almost looks like a Hurricane!


Still has nothing though IMO on the 1993 Superstorm.


Thanks for the explanation on Negative NAO STL!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Almost looks like a Hurricane!


Still has nothing though IMO on the 1993 Superstorm.


Thanks for the explanation on Negative NAO STL!


If you go by pressure, this is only 2 mlb. away from being tied with that storm! Sure, the effects are greater with the Superstorm of 1993, but if you go by pressure, they're both practically equal.
Quoting calusakat:

The East Anglia leaks show clearly that those same so-called scientists, PhD's included, all accepted the idea that it was okay to alter data. They also concurred that it was appropriate to prevent access to both the field data as well as the underlying computer programming data calling it proprietary.

The only thing shown clearly is that the entire "Climate-gate" mess was nothing more than a "scandal" manufactured by contrarians with the intent of casting doubt on the overwhelming evidence pointing to AGW. As has been explained many times here by MichaelSTL, Minnemike, and others, a number of committees and governmental groups dug very deeply into the controversy, and all found that, while some of the scientists involved sometimes acted in unprofessional ways, no tampering took place, no data was manipulated, and nothing was said or done that in any way reversed or even dampened the scientific consensus that AGW is happening. But I guess so long as some are convinced from their own in-depth investigations that the Science Assessment Panel, the UK Met Office, the Independent Climate Change Email Review, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Penn State University were all wrong, this will always be a sticking point.

I often see reflected in comments here many of the same terms and talking points I see and hear on Fox, Rush Limbaugh, WattsUpWithThat, etc. I often wonder whether some people ever read anything on climate that comes from a scientific perspective, or if are they primarily interested in just the political side of things, and specifically that information which supports their beliefs.
Quoting reedzone:


If you go by pressure, this is only 2 mlb. away from being tied with that storm! Sure, the effects are greater with the Superstorm of 1993, but if you go by pressure, they're both practically equal.


Yep. This is probably going to be the biggest storm of the year, much bigger than the ones from last decade. ('00-'09)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yep. This is probably going to be the biggest storm of the year, much bigger than the ones from last decade. ('00-'09)


"Superstorm of 2010, Storm of the Decade"
Quoting Neapolitan:

The only thing shown clearly is that the entire "Climate-gate" mess was nothing more than a "scandal" manufactured by contrarians with the intent of casting doubt on the overwhelming evidence pointing to AGW. As has been explained many times here by MichaelSTL, Minnemike, and others, a number of committees and governmental groups dug very deeply into the controversy, and all found that, while some of the scientists involved sometimes acted in unprofessional ways, no tampering took place, no data was manipulated, and nothing was said or done that in any way reversed or even dampened the scientific consensus that AGW is happening. But I guess so long as some are convinced from their own in-depth investigations that the Science Assessment Panel, the UK Met Office, the Independent Climate Change Email Review, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Penn State University were all wrong, this will always be a sticking point.

I often see reflected in comments here many of the same terms and talking points I see and hear on Fox, Rush Limbaugh, WattsUpWithThat, etc. I often wonder whether some people ever read anything on climate that comes from a scientific perspective, or if are they primarily interested in just the political side of things, and specifically that information which supports their beliefs.


I guess there is one small bit of a difference between what I write and what you write regarding East Anglia.

I read a lot of the leaks myself, obviously you did not.

They did exchange details about how they altered the data and why.

They did exchange views that the field data shouldn't be given to the general public for any reason.

They did exchange views that the computer programs and the underlying assumptions that tweaked the final conclusions, graphs etc were proprietary and that the public had no right to see any of it.

It is all there in the leaks, only thing is you have proven to us all that the truth is not part of your agenda.

Obviously you are simply apeing someone elses words. Apparently you haven't bothered to read the newspapers and listen to the media that major weather organizations admit to altering the data. Guess your ears are filled with AGW wax as well.

Keep up the yomans work of dishonoring scientists throughout the world in your blind mindless quest to support PhD spokepersons who have personal agendas. Mistaken agendas to boot.

The other side is finally awakening to the falsehood of AGW thanks to you.




Quoting Neapolitan:

The only thing shown clearly is that the entire "Climate-gate" mess was nothing more than a "scandal" manufactured by contrarians with the intent of casting doubt on the overwhelming evidence pointing to AGW. As has been explained many times here by MichaelSTL, Minnemike, and others, a number of committees and governmental groups dug very deeply into the controversy, and all found that, while some of the scientists involved sometimes acted in unprofessional ways, no tampering took place, no data was manipulated, and nothing was said or done that in any way reversed or even dampened the scientific consensus that AGW is happening. But I guess so long as some are convinced from their own in-depth investigations that the Science Assessment Panel, the UK Met Office, the Independent Climate Change Email Review, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Penn State University were all wrong, this will always be a sticking point.

I often see reflected in comments here many of the same terms and talking points I see and hear on Fox, Rush Limbaugh, WattsUpWithThat, etc. I often wonder whether some people ever read anything on climate that comes from a scientific perspective, or if are they primarily interested in just the political side of things, and specifically that information which supports their beliefs.

Oh yeah, and CNN, MSNBC, and Al Gore's book are fair and balanced media outlets when it comes to GW.

Not quite.
Remarkabl;e storm, one for the history books with a potential peak pressure of 962 mlb. May get a tad stronger and be tied with the 1993 Superstorm.
Waiting on the next surface map... Here's the impressive satellite shoot of the Superstorm.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

Oh yeah, and CNN, MSNBC, and Al Gore's book are fair and balanced media outlets when it comes to GW.

Not quite.

Anyone who would use CNN, MSNBC, or Gore's book as their sole source of scientific--or, heck, any--information is just as guilty of willful ignorance as those who only watch Fox, only listen to Limbaugh, and only read WattsUpWithThat.

BTW: there's been a NEW BLOG ENTRY for nearly half an hour now...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Anyone who would use CNN, MSNBC, or Gore's book as their sole source of scientific--or, heck, any--information is just as guilty of willful ignorance as those who only watch Fox, only listen to Limbaugh, and only read WattsUpWithThat.

BTW: there's been a NEW BLOG ENTRY for half an hour now...

Already read it and commented 10 minutes ago. Care to join?