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November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:46 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. amd
it looks like my flight into philly will be cancelled on saturday...

Look at the precip from Richmond to Philly

With the 12Z ECMWF, the 18Z Nam, and 00Z Nam coming into agreement, I am becoming increasingly confident that this winter storm will rival some of the biggest snowstorms in history from DC through Philly into central jersey.

Wind has settled down here in Tampa Bay.. Strangely calm..

BUT about twenty minutes ago it was pretty breezy.. I could hear a tree outside rocking. Then something hit the roof.. I thought a tree branch was coming down.. But suddenly something fell through the screening in the pool cage. An animal feel into the pool. I went scrambling for the net, but it clawed it's way out. It was a racoon. I opened the screen door and went inside till it found it's way out. It was CRAZY! My cat is still pacing the patio looking for it!
Quoting amd:
it looks like my flight into philly will be cancelled on saturday...

Look at the precip from Richmond to Philly

With the 12Z ECMWF, the 18Z Nam, and 00Z Nam coming into agreement, I am becoming increasingly confident that this winter storm will rival the blizzard of 1996 and PDII (Feb 2003) from DC through Philly into central jersey.


Does the words "EPIC SNOW EVENT" sound appropriate???
Quoting Bordonaro:


Man, you folks in the Miami-WPB, FL area have your own "private T-storm" complex going on! Has the local meteorologists stated when that complex will move away! Six inches and counting, record breaking rain in your dry season!!



Yeah, it's rather crazy. Seems we have a little break for now, still raining lightly though. It's very weird outside, winds quite variable. Almost as if something is developing right over us.
Here is what NWS Wakefield is Predicting with the storm for Va. In past storms they have been pretty accurate. Link

Hollywood area to my south is in the 10 to 15 inch range. Amazing with more on the way.
Actually rrm34667 that's what caught my attention a day ago there was absolutely no breeze in Dade county for at least 24 hours which is crazy being on the east coast of Fl.
508. amd
Quoting Bordonaro:


Does the words "EPIC SNOW EVENT" sound appropriate???


for those areas, yes. I almost never hype cast, hope cast, or wish cast, but this storm could become a storm to remember for those in the mid-Atlantic.
505**I believe that this time around they may be UNDER-ESTIMATING!!!


local high totals occurring
Port St. Lucie to my north is underwater again. They got 6" in 90 minutes
This could rival Fay, for the east coast, with more rain expected.
I hate cold AND rain. Either one without the other is fine by me.

But that is mostly what has been going on here in SE LA since late Nov with this pattern if cold-front, gulf low, shortwave.

Cold? Give us dry or snow. Rain? Give us warm.
(The above is what we usually have for winter. If it rains, it is usually an onshore wind and 60F, or warmer. If it is cold, well it almost never even cloudy when below 50.)
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Hollywood area to my south is in the 10 to 15 inch range. Amazing with more on the way.


5 inches an hour here in Aventura (between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami.) Cars are getting stuck in the flooding on main roads. I just got home, fortunately I have a pickup truck high off the ground. Car in front of me had smoke coming out the front and a cab was stuck at low lying intersection.


soaking rains over west la spreading e ne ward
I have never seen this happen before because Fl. is basically flat therefore hard to flood. But my son just got home and told me there are road blocks and cars floating on Bisc. Blvd. and Us1 never seen that before good luck to everyone including my girl friend who I have called and is stuck in the middle of this mess. Only good news is like I said it can only get so deep.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
This could rival Fay, for the east coast, with more rain expected.


Where are you located, just generally?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


soaking rains over west la spreading e ne ward

Seems like the rain totals from the Slidell radar site are off today, to me... I know there has been some good rains north of the lake and in NOLA. And it has been raining in Baton Rouge all day long, and not at a drizzle-rate, either. (There today...and now.)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1011 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-181000-COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
1011 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...STRONG LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO..
...RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...
...SOME SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ON FRIDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT WILL CROSS NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH VERY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS AND A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEARPROFILE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHTACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.. SPREADING NORTH FROM THE TREASURE AND
SPACE COAST. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FOUR. THERE WILL BE A
INCREASING THREAT OF ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS AS WELL BY FRIDAY MORNING.

A SQUALL LINE CONTAINING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REACH LAKE COUNTY SOMETIME AROUND MID MORNING...THEN SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS ORANGE...OSCEOLA...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SQUALL LINE WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS OKEECHOBEE...BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POTENTIAL WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND STATEMENTS...AS WELL AS YOUR LOCAL FORECAST.

IF YOU OWN A WEATHER RADIO...MAKE SURE THAT IT IS IN GOOD WORKING ORDER...CORRECTLY PROGRAMMED...AND HAS A FRESH BATTERY.

$$

PENDERGRAST/CRISTALDI

520. xcool
hi all new update comeing


local event approaching 14 inches
509...We shall see. I've lived in the Williamsburg area 20 years and kept a close eye on these storms. This area is so dependant on track for snow accumulation, 20 miles east or west makes a huge difference. I do think Richmond and points west are going to get hammered so are DC and Baltimore. Williamsburg South and East will be a tough call. I did save a snapshot to compare later.
Quoting gordydunnot:
I have never seen this happen before because Fl. is basically flat therefore hard to flood. But my son just got home and told me there are road blocks and cars floating on Bisc. Blvd. and Us1 never seen that before good luck to everyone including my girl friend who I have called and is stuck in the middle of this mess. Only good news is like I said it can only get so deep.


You must live close to me Gordy. I am in Williams Island. My wife was driving behind me with a brand new Equinox that we bought today and she was freaking out.
Just came out!!!!!!!!

Issued by The National Weather Service
Miami, FL
10:26 pm EST, Thu., Dec. 17, 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... POMPANO BEACH... DEERFIELD BEACH... SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOCA RATON...

* UNTIL 130 AM EST

* AT 1023 PM EST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED OVER 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN THIS AREA ALREADY AND AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING FROM THIS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HILLSBORO BEACH... LIGHTHOUSE POINT AND COCONUT CREEK



just sitting there rotating
Quoting Grothar:


Where are you located, just generally?


West Central PBC X marks the spot




Man it is bad here in NE Dade near Aventura. Very heavy rain. Streets have flooding but cars can still drive without fear of stalling in my area. Hopefully they opened the floodgates, or if this rain continues for another two hours the canal near our property may overflow. In all worst flooding in my area since oct 2000.
Areas of FLL now reporting 13" of rain! 15" in some areas of Stuart County north of WPB.
Most streets in North Miami and FLL are flooded some with 3' of water.


latest storm totals local event
That rain in S FL is beginning to head into Central Florida.
Wow. That's a lot of rain in a short period.

Even Katrina only dropped 14 inches over 15 hours...
00Z GFS RUN is coming out, link below:

Link
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


West Central PBC X marks the spot






I am in Coral Ridge on the Intracoastal in Ft. Lauderdale. It is wet!!!!!!!!! Flooding all over the place.
50 song playlist for the holidays......

Xmas Playlist From TampaSpin
Brought my wife up to DC for spinal cord surgery (successful) and have a slew of followup appointments next week, is this snow forecast for DC for real. They are saying everything from 3 to 5 inches to a foot or more. What say ye?
TampaSpin you and I are next. Tampa and Orlando is going to get pounded here in a few hours. We could easily get up to 5".
Hello from soggy Miami - drak or Futuremet - do either one of you have a good site for the rainfall observations - current? TIA
That's one thing we can claim down here in S. fl. if we have drought it can be over in 24 hrs.. I am just worried about tomorrow luckily this rain was confined to the coast and not the whole S.Fl. Peninsula. So we should be able to handle what ever tomorrow brings, hopefully a non event.
Emergency Management Director was on the weather channel and he said the weather is going to get worse in S FL. He said some local are could be at 20 to 25" by daybreak. A very serious situation is under way down there.
Quoting zoomiami:
Hello from soggy Miami - drak or Futuremet - do either one of you have a good site for the rainfall observations - current? TIA


I have a good one, right outside my window. JK
Hey Tampa Spin nice to see ya. You are a little bit of a gambler what do you think about the gulf storm.
Wall to wall coverage on this event on the weather channel now.
Extract from the latest Washington DC/Baltimore discussion: AS WITH ALMOST ALL COASTAL STORMS...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THE
OVERALL INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE STORM. THE RANGE CAN BE DESCRIBED
AS THE LOW END WITH THE 12Z GFS /A 989MB LOW WELL OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY/ TO THE HIGH END WITH THE 12Z EURO /A
983MB LOW RIGHT OFF THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BY 00Z SUNDAY/.
WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE TO SEE THE EURO CONTINUE THIS TREND/OTHERS FALL
IN LINE BEFORE FORECASTING AN HISTORIC SNOWSTORM. ATTM...EXPECTING
AT LEAST WARNING CRITERION SNOW /FIVE INCHES IN 12 HOURS...7 INCHES
IN 24 HOURS/ ACROSS THE LWX CWA
. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
The snow probability tables from the latest Philadelphia wx discussion:


PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

====================================================================
STATION 2IN 4IN 6IN 9IN 12IN
====================================================================

MPO 60 30 15 <5 <5
ABE 60 30 15 <5 <5
PHL 80 70 50 20 10
ACY 80 70 50 20 10
GED 75 55 35 10 5

====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - ATLANTIC CITY, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

Quoting OuterBanker:
Brought my wife up to DC for spinal cord surgery (successful) and have a slew of followup appointments next week, is this snow forecast for DC for real. They are saying everything from 3 to 5 inches to a foot or more. What say ye?


8 to 12 in an area w nw n ne of storm centre areas s se e ne of storm centre can expect all rain or rain snow mix till passage of storm centre like always stay tune to local and regional weather forecasting offices when planning any out door activity
Quoting Jeff9641:
That rain in S FL is beginning to head into Central Florida.


She's starting to ramp up again. Maybe I should go to sleep with some swimmies on, lol.
Quoting OuterBanker:
Brought my wife up to DC for spinal cord surgery (successful) and have a slew of followup appointments next week, is this snow forecast for DC for real. They are saying everything from 3 to 5 inches to a foot or more. What say ye?


Latest computer model runs for 00Z (or 7AM EST)
12-18-09 (tomorrow morning) from NAM and GFS.

The NAM is a short term model, forecasting 4 days out, they're indicating approx 3" of rain equivelent (36" of snow) storm total.

The GFS is a long term model, forecasting 16 days out, they're indicating up to 1.20' of rain equivelent (12" of snow) storm total.

This may be an EPIC storm, HOWEVER, the National Weather Service probably will not know for sure until late Fr/early Sa what the total accumulations will be.

My Guesstimate is expect 6-12" of snow in the DC area, more to the W, less towards the coast.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1044 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1044 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009


...FOCUS CONTINUES FOR AN APPROACHING CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR LATE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PENINSULA...THE WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND LIFT NORTHWARD.

A LARGE AREA OF OVERRUNNING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING...THE SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ONSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AFTER SUNRISE AND SWEEP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH.

MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL LIKELY BE PLACED UNDER A TORNADO WATCH...POSSIBLY ISSUED BEFORE SUNRISE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES FRIDAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTHWARD.
...
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


She's starting to ramp up again. Maybe I should go to sleep with some swimmies on, lol.


The good thing is that S FL has alot canals to drain out excess water.
553. amd
Quoting Bordonaro:
00Z GFS RUN is coming out, link below:

Link


not a big fan of that run. For starters, the low was initialized wrong.

Actual Low Pressure location

GFS estimate for that same low
The rain is off the chain down here. I love it, hopefully no problems insurance cannot handle.
Quoting amd:


not a big fan of that run. For starters, the low was initialized wrong.

Actual Low Pressure location

GFS estimate for that same low


Oh, they blew that one out of the water! Inital L location about 100 MI to the NE..OOPS..
I think we will be in line for supercells out ahead of the squall line. Rain is beginning to break out across much of the Florida penisula now.

goodnight!
I hope no bad tornadoes come anywhere near your way chicklit! I can't imagine anything scarier than a tornado outbreak.

It appears that the warm sector will be here only briefly--during the 1993 superstorm we were warm sectored for several hours, and the northern end of the squall line went over us, but luckily it was much weaker here.
Amd,I have been saying this since last night there are two lows that's why you can't forecast this system accurately.
560. amd
Quoting gordydunnot:
Amd,I have been saying this since last night there are two lows that's why you can't forecast this system accurately.


actually from the graph that I just showed from HPC, it's pretty clear that there is ONLY ONE LOW. With all due respect, any other talk is just conjecture until I see actual evidence backed up by a legitimate source.
Thanks St. Simons Guys. We've got 100% chance of rain here tomorrow. That almost never happens. The Special Weather Statement also said to make sure you've got batteries in your weather radio. And I can't remember when I've seen that before! I don't feel like losing power. I'd like to make things cozy by doing some baking tomorrow and am ready to call it quits from work for the holiday break.
Latest Surface map from NCEP
6PM CST 12-17-09

I see one L, not two.


Well I'll go with the Gfs estimate IMO. amd. On top off that, very low snow estimates for the Tenn.,N.C. mountains in my opinion only.
563 is the Yucatan on that map.
Quoting gordydunnot:
563 is the Yucatan on that map.


No L in the BOC.

567. amd
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well I'll go with the Gfs estimate IMO. amd. On top off that, very low estimates for the Tenn.,N.C. mountains in my opinion only.


I agree with the second part of the statement, looks like the tenn and nc mountains get slighted on this run.

We have 100% chance also--and I think we will see gales here. We brought in our plants into the garage like we would for a hurricane coming. There may be historic flooding on the inland rivers too.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well I'll go with the Gfs estimate IMO. amd. On top off that, very low snow estimates for the Tenn.,N.C. mountains in my opinion only.


I agree there are 2 lows working in tandam with each other. One to the south and the stronger one to the north.
Thanks everyone for quick and clear info without the hedging. I appreciate it.
I have to be honest if its not apparent, I am not a weatherman but what do those 2 dots with the 1006 just above the Yucatan mean.
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
THU DEC 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N83W TO 1006 MB LOW
PRES AREA NEAR 27N92W WITH COLD FRONT TO 19N91W. LOW PRES TRACK
NE TO 30N87W AND INTENSIFY EARLY FRI THEN MOVE TO CAROLINA COAST
FRI NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS SE GULF THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER WEATERN AND CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FRESH BREEZE PERSISTING ELSEWHERE
THROUGH SAT AS REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES INTO AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM W TO E
ACROSS NORTHERN GULF. S RETURN FLOW INCREASE OVER FAR WESTERN
GULF LATE TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER N TEXAS.

573. amd
Quoting gordydunnot:
I have to be honest if its not apparent, I am not a weatherman but what do those 2 dots with the 1006 just above the Yucatan mean.


a nasty squall line. A good way to view the line is with RGB imagery: RGB imagery

Quoting gordydunnot:
I have to be honest if its not apparent, I am not a weatherman but what do those 2 dots with the 1006 just above the Yucatan mean.


In that deep convection north of the Yucatan that is the second Low.
Quoting gordydunnot:
I have to be honest if its not apparent, I am not a weatherman but what do those 2 dots with the 1006 just above the Yucatan mean.


Squall Line
577. amd
I'm out. those in Florida, stay safe. those in the mid-Atlantic, get ready
A TRUE CLASSIC NOREASTER.....perfect track for a monster snow storm for the NEastern US...LOOK OUT!


wow


Local TV stations calling for 8+inches.
TWC calling for 5inches.
Retired Met from APP state calling for 6+inches.
NWS in Blacksburg calling for 12-16.

One thing they do agree on is putting a plus sign at the end of their projections and state heavy banding is possible.

Which one should I believe in?
Very heavy thunderstorms forming near Key West and heading for the Penisula.
what is the chances of this storm heading further west and impacting western NY
Quoting Jeff9641:
Very heavy thunderstorms forming near Key West and heading for the Penisula.


583. xcool




Thank you bordonaro so lower pressure along the line but not necessarily a low pressure center. I'll buy it but I still like the GFS.hard headed I guess. Irish.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
what is the chances of this storm heading further west and impacting western NY
its a coast hugger the next one tue got a better chance for you and west of there
how far inland are we looking of snow spreading. I have seen low pressures located over 100 miles off shore giving me over 1 ft of snow
Good night all heads up on the west coast of Fl. from ceder key to Ft. Myers.IMO
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
how far inland are we looking of snow spreading. I have seen low pressures located over 100 miles off shore giving me over 1 ft of snow


Heaviest snows will be in western NC, west and central VA, DC, western MD, southeastern PA, and NJ. There are projections being tossed around by the computer models of up to 36" of snow NW of DC.

The latest 00Z runs are out. The NAM solution brings to L closer to the coast, bombing out at 976MB S of Nantucket Isl, RI. That solution brings heavy snow all the way into Southern New England, Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, DC.

The GFS solution places the 976 MB bomb about 100 mi or so off the E Coast, which would mean limited accumulations in NYC and Southern New England. However, heavy snow accumulations of up to 36" would affect western NC, west and central VA, DC, MD, DE, far SE PA, NJ.
for my area..(Richmond,VA metro area)....if the low hugs the coast...4-8 inches...if it stays 50-100 miles offshore....8-12 ....wont really have a 100% grasp until tomorrow night....either way 90% of the state is in for it...its gonna be a messy Christmas week...
Rain totals in SFL

Quoting watchingnva:
for my area..(Richmond,VA metro area)....if the low hugs the coast...4-8 inches...if it stays 50-100 miles offshore....8-12+....wont really have a 100% grasp until tomorrow night....either way 90% is in for it...its gonna be a messy Christmas week...


With all this "modern technology", many big cities, like NWS Balt/DC, NWS Phila/Mt Holly, NWS NYC and NWS Boston have not put any accumulation amounts of any consequence. Gotta give it to NWS Wakefield, VA and NWS Blacksburg, VA for taking a stand and announcing accumulations.
Good Night/morning to all sleep tight! A BIG snowstorm will start FR night through SU :0)!!
Quoting Bordonaro:


With all this "modern technology", many big cities, like NWS Balt/DC, NWS Phila/Mt Holly, NWS NYC and NWS Boston have not put any accumulation amounts of any consequence. Gotta give it to NWS Wakefield, VA and NWS Blacksburg, VA for taking a stand and announcing accumulations.


i agree with you completely 100%....its ridiculous how long they wait to give even an estimate...all main forecast show 100%chance of snow on sat....heavy at times, but fail to say how much....at all...and i think Wakefield is very cautious at the amount they are saying...bc of the major uncertainty in this area....a literal shift in track of 50-100 miles and the foot plus band that is forecast now to be over and near charlottsville....could shift toward richmond...



and can you answer this one for me on the map above....why is it that the ensemble clusters of points are consistently staying offshore, but they continue to have the forecast low position on the very western edge of the clusters hanging close to the coast?

im just a little confused on that one...i guess it isnt the same as it is for tracking canes...no center on the ensemble for tracking with winter storms i guess...

its gonna be a wait and see...models tomorrow afternoon should have it narrowed down...
Quoting watchingnva:


i agree with you completely 100%....its ridiculous how long they wait to give even an estimate...all main forecast show 100%chance of snow on sat....heavy at times, but fail to say how much....at all...and i think Wakefield is very cautious at the amount they are saying...bc of the major uncertainty in this area....a literal shift in track of 50-100 miles and the foot plus band that is forecast now to be over and near charlottsville....could shift toward richmond...



and can you answer this one for me on the map above....why is it that the ensemble clusters of points are consistently staying offshore, but they continue to have the forecast low position on the very western edge of the clusters hanging close to the coast?

im just a little confused on that one...i guess it isnt the same as it is for tracking canes...no center on the ensemble for tracking with winter storms i guess...

its gonna be a wait and see...models tomorrow afternoon should have it narrowed down...




Models want the low to run to a pool warm waters off the north-east but historically speaking these types of storms seem to get farther north than east from what the models forecast.
EFFECTIVE: 5:20AM, DECEMBER 18, 2009

EXPIRES: 10:00PM, DECEMBER 19, 2009

...POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON FRIDAY... .A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS TODAY. THE STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION POSSIBLY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL OVERWASH PROBLEMS IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE BUILDING SURF WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS SO RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF. AT THE CURRENT TIME TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD REVIEW EVACUATION PLANS...AND BE READY TO MOVE AT A MOMENT`S NOTICE...SHOULD ACTION BE REQUIRED. IN ADDITION THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...AND MARINERS...FISHERMEN...AND BOATING ENTHUSIASTS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
Well should be an interesting day. I'm outside all day :( .. Hopefully it doesn't get too bad..
heads up, FLa west coasters and on over the state.

g'morning WU-bloggers.

thanks scu.
Good Morning
Looks like a tough two days along the East Coast!
From the Wilmington NC.. NWS

Forecast as of 6:11 am EST on December 18, 2009
South Santee River South Carolina out to 20 nautical miles... low pressure will move out of the northeast Gulf of Mexico... reaching Savannah this evening and then moving northeast... hugging the Carolina coast tonight. Low pressure will strengthen significantly through tonight and will become a major coastal storm as it moves through the coastal waters...producing dangerous wind and sea conditions. Low pressure will bomb as it moves up the mid-Atlantic coast and away from the area Saturday and Saturday night. Blustery conditions are expected early next week as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest.
Gale Warning in effect through Saturday afternoon
Quoting Bordonaro:


Heaviest snows will be in western NC, west and central VA, DC, western MD, southeastern PA, and NJ. There are projections being tossed around by the computer models of up to 36" of snow NW of DC.

The latest 00Z runs are out. The NAM solution brings to L closer to the coast, bombing out at 976MB S of Nantucket Isl, RI. That solution brings heavy snow all the way into Southern New England, Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, DC.

The GFS solution places the 976 MB bomb about 100 mi or so off the E Coast, which would mean limited accumulations in NYC and Southern New England. However, heavy snow accumulations of up to 36" would affect western NC, west and central VA, DC, MD, DE, far SE PA, NJ.
What about the eastern panhandle of WV? We live against the eastern slope of the Alleghany Front, and sometimes have a rain/snow shadow effect from coastal storms.
Good morning, looks fast and furious in Florida today.
IRLoopGOM
606. IKE
Knoxville,TN. in on the snow too....

"Saturday
Snow likely in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds 10 mph or less. Chance of precipitation 60 percent."


Here in the Florida panhandle it's 52.7 degrees outside with rain falling.
Good Morning, IKE
608. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning, IKE


Good Friday morning.

Up to 53.2 at my house. Warm front may be moving through. It won't last long as the low is just to my west and the winds will shift around once it moves on east of me.
609. IKE
I've had the song stuck in my mind this morning....Link
Ruskin, fl here, and stormy weather building in through the west. SPC and the NWS are currently discussing putting up a tornado watch for our area. We'll see what today brings. Should be a busy day at work today.
any one have an idea if the low will move a bit east?
612. IKE
Winds have shifted around in Mobile,AL....

Mobile Downtown, Alabama (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 50 sec ago
Heavy Rain
46 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Windchill: 38 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 44 °F
Wind: 22 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 29 mph
Pressure: 29.70 in (Steady)
Visibility: 3.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 700 ft
Scattered Clouds 1800 ft
Overcast 2600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft



Where Pensacola is 13 degrees warmer.....

Pensacola, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 16 min 37 sec ago
Light Rain
59 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 96%
Dew Point: 58 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.61 in (Falling)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 118 ft
just curious, i am about 15 miles from a winter storm warning,, does the mets really think it will stop at the county line?? under a lousy winter advisory for 1 inch of snow,, wow.
Looking at satellite does it look like center of low is tracking further north more on a nne course instead of ene.
Hey! Someone smarter than me...which is a wide, deep demographic:

What is an "Areal Flood Warning/Watch"?
616. P451
617. P451
QPF off the charts for my region but the feeling is they're overdone.

AS FAR AS QPF GOES, THIS STORM HAS ITS ORIGINS IN THE GLFMEX, SO THERE
IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH IT. QPF VALUES WILL GENLY DECREASE AS
YOU MOVE N AND W, BUT SOME PLACES WILL LIKELY SEE OVER AN INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT. EXACTLY WHERE THOSE LOCATIONS ARE IS ONE OF THE
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS. IF THE MORE SRN AND ERN TRACK IS CLOSER TO
REALITY, THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. IF THE MORE NRN AND WWD TRACK DEVELOPS THEN, THE HEAVIER
AMTS WOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW, WE WERE
THINKING OF A BROAD 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS.
618. P451
Classic satellite presentation. Note the supporting disturbance moving into Missouri ready to inject more energy into the system.








Weatherstreet Model, which I believe is based off the GFS, but is perhaps a blend of another model as well. Just for interest's sake not an official forecast IMO. If this were to pan out, oh boy. Just like a few people had said if there was going to be a system that would defy the official forecast and be worse than predicted this could be it. Models really want it to be a very heavy precip event. The mets are highly discounting that solution. Why, I'm unsure, anyone got a handle on that?

619. P451
QPF Days 1 and 2. Mets discounting this as very overdone. I'm not so sure. Anyone have a feeling on this?






If that pans out you're witnessing a widespread 12-18 inch snowfall... not 4-8 as the mets have it.

Quoting IKE:
I've had the song stuck in my mind this morning....Link



Ike..LOL. I have had Father Christmas by the Kinks stuck in my head since last night.
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 804...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-181800-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.A.0804.000000T0000Z-091218T1800Z/

TORNADO WATCH 804 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH FLORIDA

BROWARD COLLIER GLADES
HENDRY MAINLAND MONROE MIAMI-DADE
PALM BEACH

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CLEWISTON...FLAMINGO...
FORT LAUDERDALE...LA BELLE...MIAMI...MOORE HAVEN...
NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$
So guys, do I need to go and buy myself a shovel today in Southeastern Mass?
623. P451
Snowfall Probabilities, Days 1 and 2. 4",8",12".

626. MTWX
Quoting presslord:
Hey! Someone smarter than me...which is a wide, deep demographic:

What is an "Areal Flood Warning/Watch"?


The way I've always perceived it has been the same as a small stream/creek flood advisory. Kinda in between flash flooding and flooding. JMO
627. amd
according to buoy reports, the low is just south of gulf shores, alabama with a pressure of roughly 1000 mb. It should be on the gulf coast shortly. IMO

Petit Bois Island, MS buoy

Orange Beach, AL buoy
628. P451
Quoting pinehurstnc:
just curious, i am about 15 miles from a winter storm warning,, does the mets really think it will stop at the county line?? under a lousy winter advisory for 1 inch of snow,, wow.


There is going to be a sharp cutoff yes. Where that cutoff is...is not yet determined. Also how much is not determined. Mets suggesting the QPF values are overdone. Not sure if I agree with them or not yet. Sure seems like it's going to be a very potent precipitation maker...so why they're throwing the QPF out the window and going with values as much as just 1/3rd of them I'm not sure.



Morning IKE. At midnite 48 here at 6am it was 62 now its 57 with wind gusting to 22 out of the North.
630. MTWX
Quoting MTWX:


The way I've always perceived it has been the same as a small stream/creek flood advisory. Kinda in between flash flooding and flooding. JMO


Actually here is how NBC Defines it...

However, the National Weather Service recently adopted the new term, which generally means the same as the more commonly used "Flood Watch" designation. Basically an Areal Flood Watch means there is potential for flooding over a large area. The word "areal" is the adjective version of the noun "area."

Its dropped 3 degrees in less than 5 mins.
634. P451
Surface Wind Streams





Should get a nice RGB image soon.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLWARRI2


My PWS
637. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Morning IKE. At midnite 48 here at 6am it was 62 now its 57 with wind gusting to 22 out of the North.


Front just made it through you....I'm up to 54.9 degrees and rising in DFS,FL....
...y'all are da best...thank you very much...
What a lovely day in the neighborhood..43 degrees - windy and raining - with a windchill of 36!..Welcome to the "sunny and warm" Gulf Coast!......BUT, I could be in Groton, CT with my daughter where it is 3 degress with a wind chill of -3!..lol
I dont know about you, but it seems like another bust system in central Florida... South Florida looks to be in for some serious weather, but further north looks downright unimpressive.

I don't know why this is, but living in a "central" zone, systems always bring their impacts north or south of central. I cant remember the last time there was a weather even in Florida that was actually concentrated in central Florida, despite the fact they are often forecast like today. The most impressive weather always passes into northern Florida, or southern Florida. Almost never central...

Ive observed that in other "central" regions geographically as well. Its quite odd.

Overall though, this system is not turning out to be the exciting EL Nino Low I expected or was forecast... Seems like we never get the weather events in central Florida like we used to... Everything these days turns out to be a bust. I remember back when we would consistently get nasty gulf lows producing serious rain totals and severe events quite often. They seem hard to come by these days...
Quoting breald:
So guys, do I need to go and buy myself a shovel today in Southeastern Mass?



That depends on whether HurricaneJunkie, JFLorida and few others show up!!!
Quoting presslord:
Hey! Someone smarter than me...which is a wide, deep demographic:

What is an "Areal Flood Warning/Watch"?

Huh? Still on 1st cup of coffee so not sure if you mean "area," "a real," or a part of a lady's anatomy, so I'll just play it straight:

Flood: Know Your Terms

Familiarize yourself with these terms to help identify a flood hazard:

Flood Watch:
Flooding is possible. Tune in to NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio, or television for information.

Flash Flood Watch:
Flash flooding is possible. Be prepared to move to higher ground; listen to NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio, or television for information.

Flood Warning:
Flooding is occurring or will occur soon; if advised to evacuate, do so immediately.

Flash Flood Warning:
A flash flood is occurring; seek higher ground on foot immediately.

ADD-ON: OK, it IS "areal"! Thanks StormW, etc.
tooks 5 and half hours to get to e cent florida from miami yesterday usually a three hour drive lucky i was driving the ark or i might not of made it
p451, thanks,, not hoping to be snowed in 4 2 days , just a little winter wonder, for a day,, its that way here in nc,, either or no
The Low is deepening to where its expected, it just does not have the severe activity/ significant rain to bring to central Florida that was forecast, but this has been the usual in recent years for weather events to turn out less then I expected. Back in the day, they would always end up worse than I or the forecast expected. I miss the old days when we actually had strong storms regularly in central Florida haha. I mean we had a good summer season, but as of winter events not so much.
646. MTWX
Quoting StormW:
This has a lisitng of all the watches, warnings and hazards the NWS utilizes.

Long Duration Hazards Grid in the National Digital Forecast Database


Thanks StormW!! That list is very informative. I always wondered what prompts some of the advisories they post!!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



That depends on whether HurricaneJunkie, JFLorida and few others show up!!!


Your a funny guy Doug...LOL.

I appreciate your sense of humor.
Quoting Jedkins01:
The Low is deepening to where its expected, it just does not have the severe activity/ significant rain to bring to central Florida that was forecast, but this has been the usual in recent years for weather events to turn out less then I expected. Back in the day, they would always end up worse than I or the forecast expected. I miss the old days when we actually had strong storms regularly in central Florida haha. I mean we had a good summer season, but as of winter events not so much.


It's the hype nowadays. They used to downplay storms back in the day. Now, they are front page news.
649. MTWX
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


It's the hype nowadays. They used to downplay storms back in the day. Now, they are front page news.


IMO it's better to be over prepared instead of under prepared!!
Quoting MTWX:


IMO it's better to be over prepared instead of under prepared!!


A nice balance of awareness and prudence is best.
Quoting MTWX:


IMO it's better to be over prepared instead of under prepared!!



Ounce of prevention worth a pound of cure and all that....
Quoting Jedkins01:
The Low is deepening to where its expected, it just does not have the severe activity/ significant rain to bring to central Florida that was forecast, but this has been the usual in recent years for weather events to turn out less then I expected. Back in the day, they would always end up worse than I or the forecast expected. I miss the old days when we actually had strong storms regularly in central Florida haha. I mean we had a good summer season, but as of winter events not so much.
wait to february
Wait till January Jed, that's when the big boys get going, this is all pre-season stuff.
Quoting breald:
So guys, do I need to go and buy myself a shovel today in Southeastern Mass?

Guess you haven't lived there very long, hey? (j/k) That, and the Massachusetts State Car (have Subaru, will travel...)
of course here in southern new enlgand have to wait and see if it will pass south of the bench mark on closer to it will depend on where or not we get hit bad no one up here comimting to more than 6 inches cause they just dont know
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


It's the hype nowadays. They used to downplay storms back in the day. Now, they are front page news.


yeah thats part of it, just seems none of these systems ever give the kick like we used to get. I remember having a lot of El Nino events with water coming up to my front step, getting 10 inches of rain over night, and losing power often from 75 mph gusts in squall lines. None of theses systems have come close to bring us weather like that yet. I mean its early in the season, but still...

This Low looks to be the most overhyped one yet, it doesn't even have a line of thunderstorms along the front, only a weakening area of warm frontal rain, accept south florida, they have some pretty impressive storms down there, but still warm front action. No sign of the well advertised power squall line whatsoever, all I see is a weak line of low topped showers along the cold front, more typical with a weak fall cold front.

The Low has also been stuck at 1005 mb since last night, it stopped deepening, definitely not the "rapidly deepening" system it was forecast to be as it is gonna soon move into Florida.
I'd really rather just sit here and read about what is going on out there. But got to get myself to work. So I guess I'll just see for myself. On days like this I really HATE my 40 mile commute to Tampa!!! I hope those lousy FL drivers are already at their desks!!
Has anyone noticed the blizzard watch for long island?
Looks like December will be the coldest since 2000.
660. MTWX
Link

Severe Thunderstorm warning just north of Tampa. What gets me is it says this are is under a tornado watch also even though it is well north of the current watch area..
Looks like there will be no severe weather in North Florida, we were the ones that had the greatest instability, but South of us has the watch.. Interesting..
I would not be suprized to see New York City included in the Blizzard Warning when it is issued
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Wait till January Jed, that's when the big boys get going, this is all pre-season stuff.


Yeah I know thats part of it, it just seems like any sort of weather event outside of the summer storm season falls apart...We always get plenty of serious weather in the summer wet season, just the other months have been no shows for a while.

But then again, we were in a La Nina phase for a while, which meant drought and hurricanes. Oh how I hat La Nina, its terrible for florida. Thank God we have El Nino for thirsty Florida thats just come out like 8 years of droughts
Good evening all.
665. MTWX
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I would not be suprized to see New York City included in the Blizzard Warning when it is issued

*sigh* I miss snow :.(
saw that this morning would think that i storm moves futher north it may include souteastern mass and cape
Quoting MTWX:
Link

Severe Thunderstorm warning just north of Tampa. What gets me is it says this are is under a tornado watch also even though it is well north of the current watch area..



I don't even know why those cells have a warningI live in North Pinellas county, and I had the same cell move over me that has the warning in pasco, it had the same reflectivity over me, I don't know why they have a warning its just a heavy elevated shower haha

I also noticed that the NWS issues warnings during these events sometimes when they aren't needed. But then we have had many severe weather events in the summer that are far worse, and many times never get warnings, and never get forecast hype like these do. The storms during the summer wet season without warning are usually worse then these baroclinic squall lines even when I get all kinds of tornado/severe thunderstorms warnings.

Would not be surprised to see SE Mass and the cape the island get 6 to 12 out this.
Good Morning..........In terms of Florida, that front is pushing through pretty quickly and looks likes the worst of the weather is in South Florida........Panhandle/Big Bend might be spared today from severe storms as I don't see any inkling yet of a frontal line anywhere along the Panhandle or Big Bend; that may change but all clear right now from Pensacola to Panama City.
Science First: Video of submarine lava eruption

Link

Thu Dec 17, 8:09AM PT - AP 1:43

Lava erupting from the deepest underwater volcano ever discovered has been captured on video for the first time. The submarine volcano is located nearly 4,000 feet beneath the surface of the Pacific…
Quoting IKE:
I've had the song stuck in my mind this morning....Link


Thanks Ike... Now I do too...
Gusty here now! Rains about to end. Thankfully.
Quoting Dakster:


Thanks Ike... Now I do too...


It could be worse..I put up that video "hide the decline" on my blog..and I had that stupid song stuck in my head for about two weeks..I eventually had to delete it. (the video, not my head, then again, it might have been my mind..its been deleted before)
676. IKE
Quoting Dakster:


Thanks Ike... Now I do too...


LOL....here....I'll throw in another one...:)
Quoting IKE:


LOL....here....I'll throw in another one...:)


OK, try this one Ike
Hey Goosegirl-

I live in Frostburg, and work in Berkeley Springs... I think we'll get about 8-10 from this, but we'll see.
it might have been my mind..its been deleted before



"Better living thru chemistry" as they say....
680. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, try this one Ike


LOL!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
it might have been my mind..its been deleted before



"Better living thru chemistry" as they say....


Nope.. married 30 years.. I will have a thought, then the wife will point out the errors of my ways (thinking for myself) and manually correct it.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Nope.. married 30 years.. I will have a thought, then the wife will point out the errors of my ways (thinking for myself) and manually correct it.



Glad we cleared that up! Just havin alittle fun here!
683. P451
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I would not be suprized to see New York City included in the Blizzard Warning when it is issued


Someone's off their rocker this AM. Blizzard for Long Island, NY... and a near Blizzard for Maryland and Virginia and parts of NC...

But somehow the storm is going to shut off as it moves through DE and NJ and then re-explode just as it reaches Long Island?

Yeah...continuity is lacking here between forecast offices. So Long Island says big storm, Maryland, VA, NC say big storm - but no big storm for DE/NJ even though this storm has to plow through these two states on it's way to LI?

Something not adding up. I guess I'll wait until this afternoons forecast updates.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Glad we cleared that up! Just havin alittle fun here!


In a few weeks... I will be on permanent delete mode (week in Mexico. with free booze) then I get to come home with a new fresh, clean mind :)
685. IKE
Front just went through....Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 23 min 13 sec ago
Heavy Rain
50 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Windchill: 46 °F
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 50 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 29.61 in (Falling)
Visibility: 0.8 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 300 ft
Overcast 800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft
TORNADO WARNING
FLC021-181445-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0008.091218T1351Z-091218T1445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
851 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NAPLES AND PELICAN BAY...

* UNTIL 945 AM EST

* AT 850 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NAPLES...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE...
BETWEEN NAPLES AND PELICAN BAY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
I may be going to Breckenridge in Feb. I could use the vacation as I didn't get to go last year.
688. ADCS
All right, guys, I have a flight out of Philly on Sunday at noon. How long is that flight going to be delayed?
689. ADCS
Quoting P451:


Someone's off their rocker this AM. Blizzard for Long Island, NY... and a near Blizzard for Maryland and Virginia and parts of NC...

But somehow the storm is going to shut off as it moves through DE and NJ and then re-explode just as it reaches Long Island?

Yeah...continuity is lacking here between forecast offices. So Long Island says big storm, Maryland, VA, NC say big storm - but no big storm for DE/NJ even though this storm has to plow through these two states on it's way to LI?

Something not adding up. I guess I'll wait until this afternoons forecast updates.


I guess they figure the center of circulation's going to stay far enough off the DE/NJ coast to keep the wind speeds down, while still curving to hit LI straight on.
690. amd
here IMO, is the best forecast, and most likely solution for all those living in DC, PHL, NY, and up the east coast.

Matt Noyes NECN forecast for the big cities of the mid atlantic and northeast
This is fun and all but when is it gonna snow on the N central Gulf Coast? Prolly never sigh......
I believe this is an AREAL warning:

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES...

AT 915 AM EST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLLYWOOD... MOVING NORTHWARD AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

PEMBROKE PARK... HOLLYWOOD... INTERSECTION I-595 AND I-95... FORT LAUDERDALE... LAUDERDALE LAKES... OAKLAND PARK...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH... WHICH CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES... AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

ALSO... THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.



Laurence is coming back from the dead..
694. P451
Quoting ADCS:


I guess they figure the center of circulation's going to stay far enough off the DE/NJ coast to keep the wind speeds down, while still curving to hit LI straight on.


I thought about that but it doesn't seem likely to play out like that. They're calling for 5-10 inches even NW of NYC now. Everything that goes from Maryland to NYC has to blast through me.

I think my local met ran out of coffee this AM and hasn't gone with the newer models that these other office now seem to be doing.

And the waiting begins for the next trustworthy update.
TORNADO WARNING
FLC086-181545-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0009.091218T1438Z-091218T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...HOMESTEAD MIAMI SPEEDWAY...
HOMESTEAD...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EST

* AT 938 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HOMESTEAD
MIAMI SPEEDWAY...MOVING NORTHWARD AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FLORIDA CITY...
HOMESTEAD MIAMI SPEEDWAY...
PRINCETON...
GOULDS...
CUTLER BAY...
CUTLER RIDGE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

Some areas of Miami and FLL will approach 20 plus inches with this event. Very heavy rain blanketing all of S FL right now. They will no doubt break all time December records.
BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS LONG ISLAND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A GLANCING BLOW WITH LESS SNOW AND LIGHTER WINDS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS.

&&

More Information
... POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING... THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INTENSE LOW WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL... AS WELL AS A CORRIDOR OF HIGH WINDS. AT THIS TIME... THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A DIFFERENCE OF ONLY 100 MILES WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

698. ADCS
Quoting P451:


I thought about that but it doesn't seem likely to play out like that. They're calling for 5-10 inches even NW of NYC now. Everything that goes from Maryland to NYC has to blast through me.

I think my local met ran out of coffee this AM and hasn't gone with the newer models that these other office now seem to be doing.

And the waiting begins for the next trustworthy update.


Then maybe it's just the increased kinetic and inertial energy of the northeast side of the system, similar to the "dirty" side of a hurricane. I don't doubt that we're going to get dumped upon, but that might be part of why wind speeds would be lowered.
Hello to all..Lurking here, my questions are usually answered before i can post...great blog here for sure...but today i have a question for PensacolaDoug...i see your weather station is in warrinton and i'm in myrtle grove{about 5 miles away as the crow flies}...i've checked your site and also trimm sat and can find no up to-date rainfall total for this 'weather event"...i've got a swiming pool full of water and that suprised me...it usually takes a while before i have to drop it down but was good before bedtime last pm...can you or anyone else give me a link to current rainfall data or storm total...now you see why i don't post much...i write too much info and it takes me forever to get to the question and one finger typing{sometimes 2} is my keyboard expertise...thanks ahead of time..by the way i want to thank all who post here for the great learning experience i've had from people on this blog!!!{throw out the occasional loon of course}...you all have made an impact whether you realize it or not as i'm sure other seniors and young people are lurking...keep up the great info...
TWC said that 3 inches of snow has been reported in Ashville already
Quoting ADCS:
All right, guys, I have a flight out of Philly on Sunday at noon. How long is that flight going to be delayed?


Started out as a joke, but this actually looks pretty useful :) There's also links to articles about ariline flight and weather delays.
When Flights Cancel due to Weather
Typical Airline Policies and a Few Tips for Flights Canceled due to Weather

By Arlene Fleming, About.com Guide

Link


Quoting Grothar:
BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS LONG ISLAND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A GLANCING BLOW WITH LESS SNOW AND LIGHTER WINDS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS.

&&

More Information
... POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING... THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INTENSE LOW WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL... AS WELL AS A CORRIDOR OF HIGH WINDS. AT THIS TIME... THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A DIFFERENCE OF ONLY 100 MILES WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.



Good morning Grothar!
703. IKE
Just had frontal passage here in Defuniak Springs,FL....pouring outside....
no update here from the taunton office since 5am
Creepiest Headline of the Day -- If you thought the weather was weird...

Police: Auschwitz 'Arbeit Macht Frei' sign stolen
Associated Press Writers Monika Scislowska And Krzysztof Kopacz 1 hr 27 mins ago

Link
Re: 699

My gauge has recorded 1.71 inches since yesterday.
707. IKE
Down to 54.0 outside my window...rain is letting up...winds have shifted to the north and NW....
Re: 705


Its almost unbelievable the depths to which some people will stoop.
ike ill take your 54 its 19.6 here in attleboro mass
711. IKE
Quoting weathercrazy40:
ike ill take your 54 its 19.6 here in attleboro mass


Good luck with this storm. Looks impressive on satellite...low is racing near me and heading inland...
ok...thanks PensacolDoug...i did see that on your weather stat of 1.71"...but it takes at least 3-4" to raise my pool that much...i guess we got a little more where i'm at...thanks again...does anyone know of a real-time link that shows storm rainfall totals...i've tried trimm sat and wunderground links but nothing is current...???
one of the update here last nite was saying usually the stronger the storm more of a chance it will move more north making a closer pass to us
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Re: 705


Its almost unbelievable the depths to which some people will stoop.


Now that is for sure "An Inconvenient Truth." :(
I don't think the timing during Chanukkah was an accident -- although it is really a children's holiday, not a high holiday.
715. IKE
716. IKE
Down to 52.9....
Its not going to stop......



Quoting ADCS:
All right, guys, I have a flight out of Philly on Sunday at noon. How long is that flight going to be delayed?

Since Philly usually gets hit HARD by weather delays (only ones that are worse are the NYC airports), I'm guessing 2 hours. Philly gets hit hard by weather delays due to the setup of the airport (taxiway crosses an active runway), an overbooked takeoff/landing schedule (it is US Airways' main NE hub, and a common alternative to NYC airports), and how closely it is tied to the NYC airports (Continental is allied with United and US Airways now, so Philly gets overflow from Newark, Laguardia/JFK, and the DC-area airports).

Pack a book.
The Washington Times
Originally published 08:31 a.m., December 18, 2009, updated 09:00 a.m., December 18, 2009
Heavy snow forecasted for East Coast
Joseph Weber
Quoting pcola57:
ok...thanks PensacolDoug...i did see that on your weather stat of 1.71"...but it takes at least 3-4" to raise my pool that much...i guess we got a little more where i'm at...thanks again...does anyone know of a real-time link that shows storm rainfall totals...i've tried trimm sat and wunderground links but nothing is current...???

I would suggest going to your local WU radar, and clicking on "storm total" for precip. I think the NWS has some radar-based products too.. check out www.weather.gov.
Last nite, WUers were telling me 8 to 12 inches in DC area. To you guys and gals credit, you were ahead of the local news which is now saying 8+. uh, + what...2 feet, 5 feet, + storm surge. Anyway, I have MD appts., on Monday and was trying to get a sense. As an outer bank person, I have less than no trust in the weather channel.
Quoting breald:
So guys, do I need to go and buy myself a shovel today in Southeastern Mass?





That depends on whether HurricaneJunkie, JFLorida and few others show up!!!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Its not going to stop......




Hello El Nino, how are you doing, El Nino?
To clarify, I am in DC, not on the outer banks.
Can anyone post the most recent nam or gfs projected snowfall totals?
Quoting OuterBanker:
Last nite, WUers were telling me 8 to 12 inches in DC area. To you guys and gals credit, you were ahead of the local news which is now saying 8+. uh, + what...2 feet, 5 feet, + storm surge. Anyway, I have MD appts., on Monday and was trying to get a sense. As an outer bank person, I have less than no trust in the weather channel.

TWC is useless now. They downcast events that don't get people excited (like hot weather, or the chance of flooding), but hype up events that can drive their ratings (like Hurricanes and vicious Nor'Easters).

I get my weather info just from here, and the NWS discussions.
Quoting jeffs713:

I would suggest going to your local WU radar, and clicking on "storm total" for precip. I think the NWS has some radar-based products too.. check out www.weather.gov.
great and thanks jeffs713...i knew i must be missing something...by the way merry x-mas to all
Quoting OuterBanker:
Last nite, WUers were telling me 8 to 12 inches in DC area. To you guys and gals credit, you were ahead of the local news which is now saying 8+. uh, + what...2 feet, 5 feet, + storm surge. Anyway, I have MD appts., on Monday and was trying to get a sense. As an outer bank person, I have less than no trust in the weather channel.


I would say 1ft to 1.5ft of snow right now for D.C.
LOL, Doug, you be naughty. Santa's gonna' know. :) Stealing Pearland's line: Oh My!

From today's National Situation Report

Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes in Southeastern U.S.

Flood Warnings remain in effect for portions of eastern Texas, southern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. Flash Flood and Flood Watches have been issued for much of southern Louisiana. More rain is expected today for the already saturated area but the system is expected to be out of the area by Friday night. The five affected States have received more than 20 inches of rain in the last 14 days, and an additional 3 inches of rain could affect these areas through Friday.

Louisiana
Louisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) remains partially activated to support flood response operations (Level III; Crisis Activation Team). The American Red Cross shelter in St. Charles Parish is now closed. Flood warnings continue for many locations, but no significant issues have been reported. (GOHSEP, NOAA, FEMA Region VI)

Mississippi
EOC remains at Level IV (Normal Operations). Flood warnings continue for many locations, but no significant issues have been reported.

Alabama
Alabama EOC remains partially activated (Level III). There are no reports of fatalities or injuries.

One shelter is open in Baldwin County with no occupants as of 3:00 p.m. EST Wednesday. Several roads and bridges remain closed and there are downed trees in numerous counties. Schools are closed in Covington and Escambia counties.

Florida
Florida EOC remains at a Level III (Monitoring). Many locations are under flood warnings, but no significant issues have been reported.

Georgia
Georgia EOC remains at Level III (Normal Activities). Flood warnings continue for many locations, but no significant issues have been reported. (State EOC, FEMA Region IV)

Volcano Experts Fear Major Eruption in Philippines

On Wednesday, December 16, 2009, the Mayon Volcano spewed ash 500 meters high accompanied by lava and mud flowing down its slopes. Mayon is the Philippines’ most active of 22 volcanoes. Volcanologists recorded at least five minor explosions, and they expect a major eruption soon. Nearly 80 high frequency quakes have been recorded around the volcano within the last 24 hours.

Officials have raised Mayon’s volcanic alert. Media sources reported that more than 30,000 people have been evacuated from danger zones. Ashfall has affected two towns near Mayon’s slope, and residents in three cities and five towns have been advised to cover their mouths and noses to prevent ash inhalation. Also, 50,000 masks will be distributed to residents, and food and water stations will be established for displaced families.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment # 2 to FEMA-1861-DR-Arkansas: Effective December 16, 2009, this major disaster was amended to include Drew County for Public Assistance.

On December 16, 2009, the President signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1864-DR for the State of Nebraska for severe winter storms that occurred November 16-17, 2009. The declaration authorizes Public Assistance for Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Nemaha, Pawnee, Richardson, and Thayer counties. The FCO is Stephen R. Thompson of the National FCO Program. (FEMA HQ)
Quoting jeffs713:

TWC is useless now. They downcast events that don't get people excited (like hot weather, or the chance of flooding), but hype up events that can drive their ratings (like Hurricanes and vicious Nor'Easters).

I get my weather info just from here, and the NWS discussions.


I agree, thats why I asked my question here. Weather channel consistently scares away tourists, last summer's no-name nor-easter was a great example.
Quoting OuterBanker:
To clarify, I am in DC, not on the outer banks.


OHHH, gee, do I feel silly now! That was Doug Hill, local met. Ch 7, I WU'ed you last night.
Congrats on wife's successful surgery, btw.
This storm is definitely going to leave its mark in the DC area and up the coast to New Jersey,but I'm sitting here just west of Boston,and have no idea what I'm going to get,a deviation of 50 miles either way,will decide whether I get a foot or a couple of inches.I'm probably not going to know until tomorrow afternoon.
Quoting jeffs713:

TWC is useless now. They downcast events that don't get people excited (like hot weather, or the chance of flooding), but hype up events that can drive their ratings (like Hurricanes and vicious Nor'Easters).

I get my weather info just from here, and the NWS discussions.


Ya its like a reality weather show, I cant stand it. Plus you cant trust what they say. Even there high and low temps are usually way off.





That depends on whether HurricaneJunkie, JFLorida and few others show up!!!


Morning Doug! ;-] 0.78 inches so far at the extension office, 1.18 storm total.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
LOL, Doug, you be naughty. Santa's gonna' know. :)

Welcome back, I hope you learned your lesson!! LOL
Brownsville Public Library - Central Blvd., Brownsville, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago
48.5 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 45 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 47 °F
Wind: 2.0 mphfrom the NNW
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 30.04 in (Falling)
Visibility: 2.0 miles

now 11am and still not update here from taunton since 530am
Quoting Grothar:

Welcome back, I hope you learned your lesson!! LOL


Uh Huh, you betcha'! I learned that some posters can say all kinds of nasty things, but do NOT mess with the Queen or incur the wrath of Canadians! (from posting $2 Canadian "Devil's" note)...tee hee
Orca said he didn't need to polish his halo, what could I do?

Hey, take a look at this link. Mean lines moving in to S. Fl/

Link
I've learned that you can't talk about "he who shall remain nameless".
Sorry to hear Amy got a permanent ban,wonder what she did,she was always walking that line.
Mornin' Barry!
Gonna go play chess. Back after I lose....
WOW, The Mid Atlantic and the North Eastern US is gonna get HIT REAL HARD!!!
Quoting NEwxguy:
Sorry to hear Amy got a permanent ban,wonder what she did,she was always walking that line.

WHAT??? The Yang to my Yin? What am I supposed to do with all the great ex-VP (D.C. devil) shots to "balance" all the ex-VP (A.G. blowhard) shots now?

What on earth did she post that was that bad? Surely not Al again? Please someone WU me if you have time...she's mentioned she's on Facebook. TIA.

I'm really sorry to hear that. Guess forewarned is forearmed.

Oh, it's cold here. And it's going to snow. A lot!
I can't tell you how many times that big L has been right on top of us this year after coming off of the gulf. Thank you El Nino, thank you on so many levels.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --*** GROWING CONFIDENCE ON SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN ***

12Z MODELS BRIEFLY REVIEWED AND WE ARE STRONGLY CONSIDERING EXTENDING
WINTER STORM WATCHES INTO PORTIONS OF N CT...RI AND S CENTRAL/EASTERN
MA WITH 4 PM FORECAST. STILL NEED TO ASSESS MORE MODEL DATA AS WELL
AS COORDINATE WITH HPC AND SURROUDING OFFICES.

12Z NAM TRACK BRINGS LOW VERY CLOSE TO 40/70 WHILE GFS REMAINS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE. CLIMATAOLOGICALLY THIS WOULD FAVOR MAX SNOWFALL
ALONG PVD-TAN-PYM CORRIDOR...IF NOT A BIT FARTHER N GIVEN ENHANCEMENT
FROM NE FLOW.

BOTH MODELS SHOW STRONG SIGNALS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING WITH -EPV/FGEN
SIGNATURE... PERHAPS EVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER? WE ALSO
NEED TO CONSIDER LOCATION OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS FARTHER INLAND...THIS COULD NIX ARGUMENT FOR
TIGHT NORTHERN EDGE TO PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
this is out of taunton mass
Awake,don't know what happened,I'm going to try to find out.
NEW BLOG>>>NEW BLOG>>>NEW BLOG>>>NEW BLOG>>>
Quoting NEwxguy:
Awake,don't know what happened,I'm going to try to find out.


THANKS! See you in the NEW BLOG!!!
a permanent ban?! didn't know that could happen... i couldn't stand the posts of Al Gore any more than one is capable of, and yet i still would not call for a permanent ban. she was just havin fun, at times even deflating the ridiculous tension in the blog air. i know of several frequent bloggers here who deserve that ax much more.. couple cents...
Quoting NEwxguy:
Awake,don't know what happened,I'm going to try to find out.
The computer models are showing a strong storm developing with severe weather outbreak around Christmas. what is your thinking on this situation?