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Nothing new with Bertha

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:14 PM GMT on July 12, 2008

I'll echo the statement of Hurricane Specialist Lixion Avilla in the 11 am Hurricane Bertha discussion: "After a week or so...I am running out of things to say about Bertha." Hurricane Bertha has slowed to crawl, and remains in no hurry to recurve out to sea. The storm continues its rather sloppy appearance on satellite loops, thanks to the fact that the inner eyewall dissolved, leaving a new, much larger eye. Bertha's structure is sufficiently sloppy that significant intensification is not likely, despite the presence of wind shear less than 10 knots and water temperatures of 27.5°C. Shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots until Monday morning, when it should rise to 20 knots. At that time, Bertha should be over 26°C water, and will probably weaken to tropical storm strength. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will make their second flight into Bertha this afternoon to check on the storm's strength. The outer spiral bands of Bertha are starting to affect Bermuda (see links below), and the storm is now visible on Bermuda radar.

Links to follow:
Bermuda radar
Current weather at Bermuda
Bermuda WebCam

_
Figure 1. Microwave image of Bertha from 5:45 GMT 7/12/2008 showing the vary large eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

High surf of 9-15 feet is already affecting Bermuda, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. There is about a 61% chance the island will experience sustained winds of tropical storm force (40 mph), according to the latest tropical storm wind probability forecast by NHC. Given the very weak steering currents predicted to affect Bertha through Monday, the storm could easily approach closer to the island than the current official forecast. None of the computer models currently foresee that hurricane force winds will impact the island, and I don't expect this will happen.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. The models are more scattered in their prediction of a tropical depression forming between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 4-7 days from now. One model, the ECMWF, has dropped its forecast of a depression forming, and the two remaining models disagree on just when such a depression might form. There are not any impressive tropical waves near the coast of Africa presently, so I'm currently dubious of the model predictions of a Cape Verdes-type tropical storm forming next week.

I'll post an update Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters
South Shore Bermuda
South Shore Bermuda
Hurricane Bertha weather in Bermuda on Friday July 11th, 2008
Hurricane Bertha 2008
Hurricane Bertha 2008
As we made our into the outer edges of the storm, the clouds began to thicken up and the seas began to get rougher
Hurricane Bertha 2008 - 6
Hurricane Bertha 2008 - 6
Looking out the window as we approach the outer eyewall, the banding of the clouds is obvious.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good morning everyone

Well I see that the low we pegged with the best chance at developing has become a Navy invest. It is still trying to organise and with the heat of the day now overhead out there I do not expect much more than status quo for next few hrs. After that we could see some further organization.

Will be back later
Good Morning. Some of you called it.. saying we'd have 94L today. (I was reading along last night, but did not comment on some of the craziness the past couple of days.) I'm sure the blog will start picking up again.
Ike is all that info you just gave right for 94L before I record it?
Is this stuff off the SC coast no big deal?
HUrricaneMaryJane - I just spit out my cereal at your avatar! It's great!
1006. aquak9
Press- see post 920.

(gigglesnort)

this is too easy......
the models on the WU tropical page for 94L have shifted it much further south. Comments....
997. JFV 8:39 AM AST on July 13, 2008
OMG, Weather456, what could all of this potential intail for 94L if it were to enter the Eastern Carribean dare I say my friend?


Well I was very surprise that Bertha became cat 3 becuz in my seasonal forecast I reduced the number of major hurricanes becuz of lower heat potential than previous years. Also in Bertha early stages I kept sayin she would be limited to cat 1 becuz of low OHC.

Well seeing Bertha achieved that, the sky is the limit for anything moving into the cbbean under favorable conditions. Scary to think.
1010. IKE
Quoting NC0WX0Man:
Ike is all that info you just gave right for 94L before I record it?


It's off of the main tropical weather page at WU.
The NHC must have added a low pressure to 94L...pressure is 1008mb and the winds are 30 mph.


ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080713 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 1200 080714 0000 080714 1200 080715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 37.2W 9.3N 38.5W 9.4N 39.8W 9.6N 41.7W
BAMD 8.9N 37.2W 9.3N 39.0W 9.8N 40.7W 10.1N 42.5W
BAMM 8.9N 37.2W 9.4N 38.9W 9.9N 40.4W 10.0N 42.2W
LBAR 8.9N 37.2W 9.4N 38.8W 9.9N 40.8W 10.3N 42.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 1200 080716 1200 080717 1200 080718 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 44.2W 9.6N 49.8W 8.5N 55.6W 7.6N 60.9W
BAMD 10.4N 44.9W 10.6N 50.3W 10.2N 56.2W 10.3N 62.3W
BAMM 10.0N 44.6W 9.8N 50.1W 8.8N 55.7W 8.0N 61.5W
LBAR 10.7N 45.4W 12.0N 51.2W 12.7N 57.3W 11.5N 62.5W
SHIP 58KTS 73KTS 82KTS 80KTS
DSHP 58KTS 73KTS 82KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 37.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
From the San Juan, PR Discussion...

LOOKING AHEAD...WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN VORTEX OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37
WEST...AS MOST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED SURFACE SYSTEM AND HEADING IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE IN THIS UPCOMING WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND. WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING ELSE OTHER THAN IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.
Quoting JFV:
Monitor the situation Kman, because sadly enough, early indications are telling us that it might head towards you, my good friend!


Will do. Have to run now.

Will check in this afternoon
1014. IKE
Quoting IKE:
Quoting NC0WX0Man:
Ike is all that info you just gave right for 94L before I record it?


It's off of the main tropical weather page at WU.


And I see they got the info from the Navy site.
Later cupcakes...have a great day!
good morning
Bertha looks horrible this morning!
like i said last night suicide 'cane
has anyone seen the 2 new areas on the map.moderated chance of development...here comes cristobal
The SL is just West of the Georgia/South Carolina line........
hey how often does the NHC make predictions that and invest will develop with a moderate chance?..
1017. StormW 8:48 AM EDT on July 13, 2008
Can't stay...I see we have 94L from the area that's had my interest for the past 2 days. Where's stormkat?


ROFLMAO.....hello StormW
jfv..it's never too late to prepare for hurricane season
Quoting JFV:
Monitor the situation Kman, because sadly enough, early indications are telling us that it might head towards you, my good friend!


The early indications never seem to be right JFV now do they? I'm trying to remember the last time that was true, lol. You throw some good points out there though, and I commend you sir!
Good morning all

Even though 94L is waayyyyyy out, I guess it's time that I purchase some fuel for the generator. I've been a little behind with getting things ready for the season, because of my trip up North. I've only been here for a year now. The guys at work tell me waves like 94L, are the ones to watch, because they tend to squeeze between Mexico and Cuba --- then a Brooklyn hook right up into the NGOM.

Any truth to this?
stromkat is ougt gathering roots, feathers, rrabbit's feet, tea leaves...you know...his 'special' tools
1024..they are the ones we watch for sure
Well whatever happens - happens! I will be ready and I am sorta looking forward to my first Tropical event
1019. aubiesgirl 12:49 PM GMT on July 13, 2008

as far as i know(and i may be wrong) they only had a moderate chance(orange circle) for bertha and the alma/arthur event and maybe one more so far. in the E.pacific the had a few more (2 or 3) that didnt develope

thats what im able to recall anyway...
1029...so basically sounds like 50/50 they are coverd either way...lol
1032. aquak9
press, did you see post 920? or are you just ignoring it?

sorry I got no one else to pester this morning.

stormkat's not who we gotta worry about. When Leftyy421 shows up, then it's time to head for the hills. He's good.
1025.

ROFLMAO!!!!

1028.

After your first, you won't look forward to your second!!!
1034..ain't that the truth..lol
1034. Don't be too sure about that, I love mother nature's power and fury
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Good morning all

Even though 94L is waayyyyyy out, I guess it's time that I purchase some fuel for the generator. I've been a little behind with getting things ready for the season, because of my trip up North. I've only been here for a year now. The guys at work tell me waves like 94L, are the ones to watch, because they tend to squeeze between Mexico and Cuba --- then a Brooklyn hook right up into the NGOM.

Any truth to this?


Yes and no. It is common for storms in the western caribbean to make a sudden turn north into the gomex, but not necessarily between Cuba and Mex. For example, Hurricane Charley crossed over Cuba before slamming into Fl.

Plus, not all storms even have to turn at all. Last year's storms were a good example of that. Both Dean and Felix (cat 5's) took a straight path all the way across the Caribbean and never went north at all. But, as a fellow Floridian, I would say that yes, it is good to watch a storm in the caribbean in case it makes that all-to-common turn.
1036.

Yeah it's magnificent, I do too!! It's just the roof replacement, lack of power, etc. that I can do without - lol!!
hey chuck what part of the panhandle?
Quoting JFV:
Why thank you HurricaneMaryJane! I was absolutely floored my your sweet remarks Madame!


As I am quite floored by your good looks sweetie pie :)
Thanks Freak

I'll probably get stuck at work in the event of a Hurricane, but at least I'll be safe
aubie --- 20 miles north of Navarre
milton?
It's mentioned on another wx site that the Charleston low won't do anything right now because shear is too high and it may not lessen in enough time for it to do anything but stay a weak area of low pressure as it moves out to sea not effecting anyone. It's also mentioned on another site that there's too much dry air and high shear for 94L to do anything right now or into the next few days.
1039. I'm pretty confident that my home will be fine -- and I have my generator
Just reprinted my survival checklist. Will be making sure we have everything (we should) in the next couple of days. I've been a little slow this year.
you guessd correect Aubie --- are you close by?
1051. IKE
1046...JFV...where do you get that from?
On a brighter note, a few more weeks till football season. Sorry Aubies but can't help myself...ROLL TIDE!!
1049 Eglin AFB.
1053 fooey fooey .blah blah yuck..you should wash your mouth out..lol
1058. IKE
Quoting JFV:
from Rob, guys!


From 03?
1054. Are you or your significant other in the military?
1053. I know you didn't just say ROLLTIDE!!

;)
1061. IKE
Quoting JFV:
Have you guys read it yet?


I have now.
spouse is
lol
aqua....920....AAAAARRRRGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting IKE:
1046...JFV...where do you get that from?


Crownweather
1062. Cool --- It's amazing how much land Eglin takes up.
1020. JFV 8:49 AM AST on July 13, 2008
Absolutely Weather456! By the way, not to get too ahead of myself here or anything like that, but is this what awaits us as we head into August and September? Also, do you think that it's already a little bit to late to make those final hurricane preparation plans or not quite yet? Taking into consideration that we are rapidly getting into the most dangerous part of the season.


JFV, this is the best time to prepare, now that nothing is brewing. It is never too late considering we have August and September to go.
yankeerebel... I should have added... GEAUX TIGERS!
Morning everyone. I see two of the three areas being booted about as potential invests are on the TC potential map this morning. I have to admit the CATL wave looks a lot more impressive this morning. I guess the rest of July is fated to be fairly active. Even if only one of these makes it to TS status, that will give us THREE named systems before the beginning of August . . .
1066..yea that's why there's housing shortage round here..lol
1072. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Quoting IKE:
1046...JFV...where do you get that from?


Crownweather


OK ...thanks.
Quoting JFV:
I'm blushing Ma'am!


LMAO. JFV, my friend, do you get out much?
1068...oh no it's gettin worse...actually I like lsu..cute lil kitty cats...lol
1070. LOL --- well I'm outta here for now, see you all later
1077. IKE
Quoting JFV:
So what do you think about the Florida impact scenerio that rob mentioned for 94L, is it possible or not IKE?


It's possible.
evidently, I'm not the only one ready for football to fire up
PanHandleChuck -

I sure hope you have it better than my family did in the panhandle. My Dad's house was completely overwashed by the storm surge from Opal. My brother's house was pretty much leveled by Ivan - He couldn't stand it any more and moved to Eagle Creek - ALASKA!!!
1078 clearly..lol..I can't wait
1074. LOL yes.. we went through this last year. Cute little kitties my butt ;)
1082......I"m just sayin..lol
Whatever that is offshore not withstanding...it's a beautiful morning in the SC Lowcountry....
1079. My house was built in 06 outta brick --- I know that doesn't mean that it is storm proof, but I think it will survive a Cat 3 or lower with minimal damage.

And your Brother -- Alaska -- No way for me, Ohio's winter was too bad for me.
1085 what part of OHIO..go bucks!@!!
1085.

I'm with you, I can't handle all that cold, or the darkness!! Sounds like you are ready, me too!!! Just hope it doesn't happen, the storms just kill my business.
PS --- Before I go, the Buckeyes will beat whichever SEC team it faces in the BCS this year. (LOL that's what I said last year).

Later,

P-Chuck
Look what i just found in the BOC.....dam spins everywhere......wow! It appears a SL is trying to form at 20N 95W in the BOC.

1088 roflmao...awww bless his heart!
1086. Akron
ohok..husband is from Enon right outside of Fairborn and Beavercreek
1085. I hear ya, I'm originally from Buffalo, Ny and I've been living in Mobile, Al for almost three years now. Couldn't handle the cold. Now if it gets under 60 I'm wearin a jacket.
Quoting JFV:
24/7, between work and school, why you asked Ma'am?


because you dont understand my handle. its ok buddy. your a cool dude.

Does anyone have any recent radar images of 94l?
1089.

Thanks for the Heads up on that one Tampa, now I'm going to break out the tequila and meet up with Press. for an early morn. belt.

Too much, too soon!!!! LOL!!

BBL - gotta do laundry :(
1088. LOL.. not a good track record so far!
ABNT20 KNHC 131145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

1088...in football or basketball..lol
List of odd things to do about now.
1. fill up gas for grill 2. gas for car 3.buy batteries for radio and flashlight make sure they work 4.buy battery operated fan and extra rd. of batterie 5. if you own a generater make sure it starts 6. kid stuff extra diapers games ext 7. organized all paper wk (put in ziplocks) 8. surfbd and leaches ready 9. if your roof savy buy some sandbags look at your house where the wind might peel up a corner of roof (last minute thing) cannt do unless you got the bags 10. beer 11.$$$$$ 12
Prepare for no electr. for about a wk. Any other ideas I need to know?
1090. LOL.. well that's one thing we can agree on.. won't happen ;)
1102.

Click on HIS avatar, you'll get the picture....
1109. IKE
Quoting jphurricane2006:
ummmm did anyone say anything about Invest 94L?


A lot of us did. I was researching stormkats previous posts....all of his from Tuesday were deleted. Fortunately I quoted him one time....



"""" Quoting 80. stormkat:
you guys can watch all these blobs but dont look for anything to develop for al least the next 2 weeks...the shear is just to high and its expected to persist....this is going to be a slow season...also the elnino has developed in the pacific and the storms will increase in the pacific off the mexican coast...you heard it from me first hand...that will also limit the develoment in in the atlantic...so im forecasting 7 named storms this year and one major hurricane hitting the east coast sometime in middle to late august....have a super day storm w and i would think you need to go over your latest data...you will see what im talking about...i also think you should watch the el nino thats develoing in the pacific...not criticizing you big guy just letting you know the facts....stormkat""""
Quoting aquak9:
When Leftyy421 shows up, then it's time to head for the hills. He's good.


Lefty was in here the other night. He can be as annoying as all getout, but at least he rarely talks crap.

It would make for some interesting . . . debates, anyway.
1108. JFV 6:25 AM PDT on July 13, 2008
Thank you sir! Good morning Taz, and welcome on board to you sir!


your welcome
1112. Drakoen
good morning. I see we have 94L.
Look at the BOC, SW Carribean, Georgia/SC line and 94L...and Bertha....wow
1113.

Thought you would want to know sooner rather than later!!!
Good morning all! Just stopping by before I head out to work for the day. I see we now have Invest 94 out there.

When I read the NHC outlook, it just seems like they know that we will see a tropical cyclone from this. Too much model consensus and favorable conditions for this system not to develop into Tropical Storm Cristobal.


Tropical Storm Bertha looks kinda meager to say the least this morning as it appears that it has dug its own grave by just popping a squat over the same location for the past 24 hours. The convection has become well displaced from an increasingly difficult-to-discern center. The incredible outflow pattern it once displayed is practically non-existent right now. If it doesn't start moving, you can kiss "Big" Bertha goodbye.
JFV,
For future reference please make sure you quote or say where your copying info from, looking at post 1046 I was not sure if you or someone else wrote that.
img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Quoting aubiesgirl:
ohok..husband is from Enon right outside of Fairborn and Beavercreek


I live just NW of that!
1hour and 30 min to go.....
Drak, my man! What're your thoughts on the glob off the SC coast?
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
1hour and 30 min to go.....


'Til 11:00 update? What happens then?
1127. aquak9
awwww, man....i missed Lefty? not to be confused with leftovers

and leftovers, if you have pets, make sure you get extra pet food. That seems to be one thing everyone forgets.
1128. IKE
94L seems to be organizing......slowly but surely.
1116. I say its a TD
Quoting JFV:
FloridaFreak, be careful with that latest GFS model run, because it's going to take 94L quite so time to get that far north!


Yeah. That image that I posted is for the 20th.... I'm just glad that the GFS has gone back to a scenario north of the islands.... hopefully it stays that way.
Aqua!!! How are things in the Floridas???
FOR ALL BLOGGERS WHO USE PHOTOBUCKET:

When inserting images here on the blogs, just copy the image code provided by Photobucket and paste it directly into your comment. You do not need to use the "Image" function here on Wunderground to paste images into the blog. That is the reason why you see some coding appear in your post.
Is Bertha going to continue weakening or could it possibly strengthen in about 4-5 days? Also, why does the projected path take it to a half loop?

Felix
Elida and the new tropical wave in the EPAC that could develop.

1126 blog update
1116. Jugeing By the Viseble Pic Of 94l i say it Look like a Td ...

See The Band North of all the convection ..

and the sorta eye in the middle
Quoting sammywammybamy:
1116. Jugeing By the Viseble Pic Of 94l i say it Look like a Td ...

See The Band North of all the convection ..

and the sorta eye in the middle


There is certainly no eye with 94L...I don't think it looks like a TD yet myself...still has some organizing to do.
1140. pottery
Well Hello !!
Its a lovely Sunday morning. I slept late. Had to deal with the neighbours hogs who were in my garden freaking out the dogs. Some of those hogs are the size of couches.
Then I check here, and LO.! A conspiracy of woe, a week to be filled with angst, trepidation and fraughtsom groans.
I do not appreciate the plot guys. The thing is too obvious and leaves no room for surprise at all. Please re-write the script.
I am at 11n 61w, and there are lots of OTHER places for 94L to go...........
sammy yeah I thought it looked like an "eye" too.

I should emphasis.. looks like... not that it is.
1142. aquak9
Floridas still connected to the Georgias, Press.

Tell SJ he needs a vacation. I think he's working too hard.
is this it? i looks closer to
S.America than i thought. any chance of south america getting it?
Quoting presslord:
aqua....920....AAAAARRRRGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Now I totally HAVE to go back and see what 920 is . . . lol
1145. dewfree
ooh me hello all bloggers on tropics
W.U.T .It is the way it is .The bertha thinggy looks like it is drifting to the southeast to me . Maybe and maybe not ,but looks that way to me.
Quoting extreme236:
Elida and the new tropical wave in the EPAC that could develop.



Right now, I'm keeping my eye on that tropical wave off the Nicaraguan coast as well. For a tropical wave, it is very well organized and seems to be getting its act together. I expect that this will become a tropical depression soon based upon the current appearance and conditions.
1147. IKE
Quoting HurrikanEB:
is this it? i looks closer to
S.America than i thought. any chance of south america getting it?


Some of the BAMM models are pointing it that way.
1148. aquak9
G'morning pottery.

Maybe the couch-hogs (not to be confused with couch-potatoes) will keep 94L at bay.

I certainly would'nt go near them.
a new wave to watch wish could be come 95L

Quoting JFV:
But what about the rest of the models, have you discarded them already FL?


Oh definitely not. I like to keep watch on all the models. I'm just glad one of the most reliable models doesn't take a Hurricane over my villa on the latest run. CMC doesn't show it developing as much anymore so that's good too. :)
Quoting cchsweatherman:
FOR ALL BLOGGERS WHO USE PHOTOBUCKET:

When inserting images here on the blogs, just copy the image code provided by Photobucket and paste it directly into your comment. You do not need to use the "Image" function here on Wunderground to paste images into the blog. That is the reason why you see some coding appear in your post.


Oh thanks. I was wondering what I was doing incorrectly.
the Coast Guard helicopter is hovering over my back yard right now....Quick!!!! Somebody start eatin' all the pot!!!!!!!!
1139. Look in the Middle Of the Pic CCHS Posted....

It Sorta Looks or has the illusoin of an eye
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
1hour and 30 min to go.....


'Til 11:00 update? What happens then?


Berhta will get thr first full advisory as a TS in ages.... and god knows what will happen in the E pac
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
1hour and 30 min to go.....


'Til 11:00 update? What happens then?


Berhta will get thr first full advisory as a TS in ages.... and god knows what will happen in the E pac


LMAO. Now only 1hr 15 min lol
94L and 95L (Soon to be) Will be Dolly and Christobal
press, if you light it on fire, then those guys will forget all about you! LOL
actually...they're up and down the ICW...usually not a good sign...likely means some boater didn't make it home last night....
1160. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:
Drak, my man! What're your thoughts on the glob off the SC coast?


There is an area of low pressure of the SC coast. It's enveloped within upper level cyclonic vorticity. An upper level cyclone over the Bahamas looks to taking away some of the moisture from the trough axis. We'll have to see what happens as that upper low weakens and moves of to the northeast. There's good upper level divergence. I don't see any of the reliable models showing significant development so just something to keep our eye on for now.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
1hour and 30 min to go.....


'Til 11:00 update? What happens then?


Berhta will get thr first full advisory as a TS in ages.... and god knows what will happen in the E pac


LMAO. Now only 1hr 15 min lol



)=

How long till Bertha dies....
I will pay £200 to whoever gets it right.
thanks drak....
Quoting Tazmanian:
a new wave to watch wish could be come 95L



Unlikely, the thing off the CONUS will be next to get 95L, that wave could get 96L
1164. aquak9
sorry to hear that, press. Helo's overhead rarely bring good news, unfortunately.

God bless the Coast Guard.
Quoting JFV:
Good Sunday morning Baha! Might this way one decide to pay you a visit my friend?


Hey, I'm paranoid enough to thing EVERY one of them might pay me a visit . . . they don't call the Bahamas the hurricane capital of the world for nothing LOL.

However, this is as much a wait and see game for me as Bertha was. From its current position, and given the steering (such as it has been so far) the eastern Antilles are most likely to be affected first. I'd venture about 40% of storms that affect the Leewards (St. Kitts, Antigua, etc.) also affect the Bahamas to some degree, but further than that I really can't say.
The GFS model putting 94L well off the east coast. Going to have to watch the steering currents closely. How much do you guys rely on this model? And this is scheduled for the 23rd of July. Week and a half away.
Has anybody been looking at the SSTs lately? they sure are getting warm fast. Can anybody tell me if the trade winds have slowed some to allow less evaporational cooling in the past few weeks?
Also, I see the NHC gives it a Medium chance of Tropical Cyclone development, and the thing of the CONUS a low chance of Tropical Cyclone Development
94L

Aye, good morning Extreme.
Quoting InTheCone:
1113.

Thought you would want to know sooner rather than later!!!


Thanks for clearing that up, we can still be friends though JFV don't worry! lol
1174. IKE
Quoting Kexnicious:
The GFS model putting 94L well off the east coast. Going to have to watch the steering currents closely. How much do you guys rely on this model? And this is scheduled for the 23rd of July. Week and a half away.


It assumes a weakness will develop....that's a possibility.

94L is in the same area that Ivan was at....Link
TS Elida nearing hurricane status via CIMSS ADT

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2008 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 15:05:48 N Lon : 103:46:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 992.6mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 4.0 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Quoting extreme236:
TS Elida nearing hurricane status via CIMSS ADT

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2008 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 15:05:48 N Lon : 103:46:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 992.6mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 4.0 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF




ROFL...

Just as the NHC start writing the Package for her that happens...

T
Morning all - looks like more little things are trying to spin up.

The NHC will likely set Elida's intensity at 55-60 knots for the next advisory.
1168. fairly light winds in the CAtl...
The best thing that could happen to 94L is for it to just dissipate. I live in Puerto Rico and will be going for vacation in Aruba. If it goes North, I won't be home to take care of things and if it stays South my vacation will be ruined. :(
Tropical Storm Elida strengthens - posted: 1 hour, 2 minutes ago

MEXICO CITY - Tropical Storm Elida grew stronger off Mexico's Pacific coast on Sunday, but forecasters said it was not expected to strike land.
ADVERTISEMENT

Elida had maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 kph) with higher gusts, the U.S. National Hurricane Center reported.

The storm was located about 250 miles (405 kilometers) southwest of Acapulco and was traveling west-northwest at near 16 mph (26 kph).

Large swells and high surf could begin affecting Mexico's southwestern coast over the next couple of days, the center said.

It said the storm could become a hurricane by Monday.
i think we may have 95L today off the NC coast today
Guys Look at Bertha's Track! , Shes Gonna Make a Loop de loop that will take her back over warm waters.... if she survives
Don't say the "I-word" around Kman. He's been watching this area for development. Looks like it's starting to get its act together, although models are presently sending it into South America.
Quoting JFV:
I need a glass of water, I'll be right back folks!
Quoting JFV:
Of course we could, I dont descriminate because of sexual preference!


JFV I have no idea how you don't understand what's going on here lol...does anyone wanna pin point the COC for 94l?
13/1145 UTC 15.0N 103.1W T3.5/3.5 ELIDA -- East Pacific Ocean


Quoting Chicklit:
Don't say the "I-word" around Kman. He's been watching this area for development. Looks like it's starting to get its act together, although models are presently sending it into South America.


Not true, Those are actually the only 3 Models to take it down there, GFS wants to take it up North, and those 3 models were wrong about Bertha, BAMM Wanted it to go into Florida after all the models took it into Bermuda/Stall
1189. Drakoen
Quoting Chicklit:
Don't say the "I-word" around Kman. He's been watching this area for development. Looks like it's starting to get its act together, although models are presently sending it into South America.


Those are just the BAMs suite. They didn't do well with Bertha. The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS take the system towards the northern islands.
1187.

Do think Bertha Will become a Td on Saturday or Sunday or Monday?
Morning!

Had a good feeling last night that disturbed weather was going to be tagged convection we slowly but surely increaseing throughout the night.Its a rather large system and might take soemtime to develope but unfortunately looks like all systems go for futher development.

Were might it go we'll remember models do very poorly when they don't have a definite center of circulation.

Here's a nice animated view of the system..

Is it really likely that Bertha will loop back and become an issue?
1191.

So when do think it will become a Td...

Id Say this weekend but
Dont this will be a south america storm. It will likely do what virtually all these really low latitude storms will do...and thats either skirt throught the latitude of trinidad/ tobago and continue w-wnw. I can't recall seeing a tropical system striking the area where the models are forecast )not to say it hasn't or can't happen). It will gain latitude as it strengthens I'm sure....my best bet....look for a slightly more northerly trend within the next 48 . jmo
1195. IKE
hurricane23...that is a large system. Nice satellite view!
1196. IKE
Quoting presslord:
Is it really likely that Bertha will loop back and become an issue?


No.
Presslord... Did u look at the track ... she will be back in warm waters were anything is possible...

If she keeps on going due sw ... and then track wnw again ....

WHO KNOWS
Cybrted: It's still way too early to tell where 94L will go and what it will do, for sure! Interesting discussion last night because the guys here were identifying at least three different areas and figuring the area was ripe for cyclogenesis. Okay, Drak thanks! 'Veerry interesting...as maxwell smart would say...BBL!'
1199. raggpr
Hey good morning everyone, hey Drak what are the possibilities that 94L will affect Puerto Rico
94L looks very sloppy, it will probably take a couple of days for it to become a depression. Let it move a little north first, it's too far south.
Gang i just did my Blog update if you would like to review......wow...

TampaSpin Blog
1202. Drakoen
Quoting raggpr:
Hey good morning everyone, hey Drak what are the possibilities that 94L will affect Puerto Rico


It's too early to say but the models are pointing in that direction in about a week or so.

is shear in the Caribbean decreasing can someone post a map of that
1204. pottery
The BAMD model takes 94L right over my house. I think I'll go with all the others. LOL
I would dare to say that 94L doesn't look that sloppy.Convection is subsiding which is typical...but if you look at the last few frames of the visible sat loop...you'll see that it continues to improve in organization. Rather broad circulation...but it seems to be tightening. Waves which have such large envelopes such as this one tend to take a little longer to develop but they have a lot of moisture to work with as well. We'll see....fingers crossed that this isn't a Cayman storm
Bertha is still not a fish???
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting Chicklit:
Don't say the "I-word" around Kman. He's been watching this area for development. Looks like it's starting to get its act together, although models are presently sending it into South America.


Those are just the BAMs suite. They didn't do well with Bertha. The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS take the system towards the northern islands.


Good point.Bams really did horrible as expected.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

is shear in the Caribbean decreasing can someone post a map of that


Doesn't it say 90 kt of shear there?

Felix
Quoting sammywammybamy:
1187.

Do think Bertha Will become a Td on Saturday or Sunday or Monday?


I don't really care... I just want her to die ASAP
1210. Drakoen
NWS San Juan:
TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE DATA AND ANALYSES AND
COMPARING THEM TO MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN VORTEX
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING OR A SEPARATE
PERTURBATION ALTOGETHER...WILL BE FORCED OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
VORTEX OF THIS WAVE...WHICH WILL LAG BEHIND ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS
MORE NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS...AND THEN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AGAIN ENCOMPASSING THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN VORTEX OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37
WEST...AS MOST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED SURFACE SYSTEM AND HEADING IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE IN THIS UPCOMING WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND. WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING ELSE OTHER THAN IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

I think thats 40kts of shear
I think it says 40-50
This is from a moderator at another wx site (like wunderground):

no reason to believe any one of the features currently trying to develop and accompany bertha aren't going to give it a try. the eastpac has been coughing up one storm after another since boris... and the shear in much of the atlantic basin has been ridiculously low for much of july (especially in the mdr east of the islands).
case by case..
current active storm bertha is unlikely to stop being bertha anytime soon. every one of the forecast models maintains the storm through d5... aside from other development confusing the evolution further, the current NHC track appears to have enough blanket support to be believable. expect an erratic track that eventually ends in a surge to the northeast... next weekend perhaps. bertha is an already a long-lived system for july. i haven't exhaustively researched what the record for that is, but i'm fairly sure bertha will have it when all is said and done.
94L is likely our next named storm. shouldn't be a lightning fast development, but i'd be surprised if it wasn't TD 3 by tuesday. the embryo for this storm is the diffuse area of ITCZ vorticity near 9/38. an approaching tropical wave with more low-level vorticity should sort of 'sync-up' with it overnight/tomorrow and get the ball rolling. it's going to start out big and broad, so probably won't strengthen quickly or start trucking along very fast until mid-week or so, when it should have a decent degree of ITCZ separation and a steady easterly current to ride. models imply a threat to the northern leeward islands at the end of next week, and (gfs/ecmwf) eventual recurvature near the bahamas in around ten days. that far out it's hard to know if the models have future amplifications timed or the speed/profile of shortwaves right... not to mention our other area of concern.
that would be the frontal tail and cut-off area of mid-level energy, the frequent source of july activity, in the H50 break near the southeast coast. NHC is already honed in on the small vortmax/slightly sheared thunderstorm area due east of savannah by 150 miles or so. other models have different variations of this evolution... as the weakness troughs out and fills in, in spite of modest shear, the persistent disturbed weather may start to consolidate into yet another system somewhere between florida and the coastal carolina waters. this is in an area of vacillating/weak steering currents, and close enough to bertha to feel the tug maybe... so anything that does go will likely wander about also. this is still fairly low probability of a full development, though, per NHC. expect little movement and possible slow development (but fairly rapid development for anything that gets established).
this year is starting to have the look of a blockbuster to me. sure, it could easily reverse... but those persistent easterly upper anomalies over much of the tropical atlantic are going to start paying huge dividends in august, if they stay around.
Models to look out for with 94L are the HWRF/GFDL models which i might add did a nice job with bertha.
1209.

What about 94L ...

Td Sunday or Monday
Quoting KYhomeboy:
I think thats 40kts of shear


I know it says 40kts there but I saw 90kts near it on that map. If there is 90kts, 94L will die instantly. Maybe It could be less than that, I can't see it well.
Is anyone willing to post the pic of all the models for 94L? I know that is annoying for you "experts" but it really helps many of us.

(Not the one on the WU page -- the one with all the models that have been run on 94L)

TIA!
1161. IpswichWeatherCenter 1:45 PM GMT on July

How long till Bertha dies....
I will pay £200 to whoever gets it right.


i think that she has a better chance of surviving if she just goes a head and starts moving. I say that she's a depression by tuesday at this rate. If she can hold on to storm status through tuesday night she will be the longest lasting july storm ever.
GO BERTHA!! just keeps racking in the records.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
1209.

What about 94L ...

Td Sunday or Monday


Tuesday....

Shear is only 10kts over Bertha, and Bertha is not going north towards the 20kts shear, so maybe she could strengthen in a few days.

Felix
i will tell you one thing...if 94l uses all that convection it has when it starts to spin good tonight/tommorrow.....cris is going to be a masive storm.... which could keep him south...takes a long time for large systems to tighten up real good.
i say a depression #3 between 11am monday and 5am tuesday
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Is anyone willing to post the pic of all the models for 94L? I know that is annoying for you "experts" but it really helps many of us.

(Not the one on the WU page -- the one with all the models that have been run on 94L)

TIA!


Here you go...

BBL

I think 94L Will become a TD Tonight or Monday !
1226. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:
Models to look out for with 94L are the HWRF/GFDL models which i might add did a nice job with bertha.


Yep.
Tampaspin.thanks for the update
Quoting sammywammybamy:
BBL

I think 94L Will become a TD Tonight or Monday !


I say Tuesday. Then I start freaking out because it will be coming toward me :0
Thanks TS and 23!!

So they keep moving south? When do the HWRF/GFDL run? After it's a depression or named storm?
1228. were do u live , I live in south east Fl......

(Were this could Go ....)
1230. txalwaysprepared 10:18 AM EDT on July 13, 2008

Go to my Blog at the top you can click a link for the GFS long range run.
tampaspin...I just read your blog...and I'm very disappointed in you...there IS no such place as the "Carolina coast"...God is in the details, my man....
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Thanks TS and 23!!

So they keep moving south? When do the HWRF/GFDL run? After it's a depression or named storm?


They run about 12 hours or so after an invest has been declared.
I've updated my blog, if anybody would like to take a look!

Bertha Nears Bermuda; More Tropical Trouble Ahead

I'll be back here later this afternoon.
Geez TS... I read your blog every day anyway without the email "finished my blog" LOL It's one of my favs
...i'm not gonna' jump into this argument....
Several possibilities this morning but am focused on 94L for the moment as it has the greatest high impact possibilities. I see the intensification models want to really develop this system and I see little reason why it shouldn’t once it gets its act together. A well developed system should have some modest poleward component of motion in its movement so I’m leaning towards a middle of the road track between the current BAM suite to the south and the GFS to the north close to but slightly north of the 00Z ECMWF track. It is very early though and much will depend on where a LLC develops and how much development we get. Further down the road in the long range the GFS develops a rather significant trof near the East Coast and needless to say at this point I believe it is likely overplaying the trof.
freak...tampa knows I'm just raggin' on him....
Presslord why do you get so bothered by the Carolina reference? I live in N. Carolina and all the time when the local news or mets are refering to both they say the Carolina's. I've heard older people refer to SC as NC's sister state so why do you get upset?
We all have to remember that once a storm breaks through the Leewards and Windwards- it's going to hit land somewhere- and we have representation from most Caribbean nations on this blog... so this is the storm to watch.
psssttt.....(I'm not really upset....don't tell anybody though....)
Quoting presslord:
freak...tampa knows I'm just raggin' on him....


I wasn't referring to that dispute.... There are other much worse ones
JFV,
Why don't you ask the bloggers in an email.
According to TAFB 94L should miss south america.

72hr position...

1242. presslord 10:25 AM EDT on July 13, 2008
freak...tampa knows I'm just raggin' on him..
..

Dam you just made me mad.....LMAO
although as a matter of practical geography..and forecasting specificity... it DOES matter...as NC sticks out and is arguably more vulnerable....
Quoting presslord:
although as a matter of practical geography..and forecasting specificity... it DOES matter...as NC sticks out and is arguably more vulnerable....


I guess you would say that your southerly counterpart is the 'woosy' who backed away geographically from the ocean....? Bc I think so lol
1253. crownwx
JFV: Next time you quote my discussions....please give credit up front or don't even quote my discs. I noticed credit wasn't given until further down the page. Thanks.
Quoting presslord:
although as a matter of practical geography..and forecasting specificity... it DOES matter...as NC sticks out and is arguably more vulnerable....


So right i live just south of that area that just sticks out.
Quoting JFV:
There won't be no need for that Sporte, because their ignorant silence towards me, speaks volumes!


Maybe they blocked you.... that's why emailing them would be a good method of contact.
Also though early just wanted to mention SHIPS model has 94L as a 82kt hurricane in the caribbean.

You can get its ouput HERE.
yea freak...we're the Chicken Carolinians.....
1260. IKE
15 GMT 07/13/08 30.2N 63.0W 65 988 Tropical Storm


Bertha is dying a slow death.
1255. FLWeatherFreak91 10:32 AM EDT on July 13, 2008

Freak, i don't think i am blocked by anyone....but i did take you off my very small list if bloggers that i have a relationship with i thought....i send an email to those people that are not currently signed on to let them know of an updated. You are no longer on my list......thank you and please put me on your ignor list.
Tim
***/INVEST/*
TRACK MARK
8.9N/37.2W
9.1N/37.8W
10.2N/38.2W
10.8N/38.7W
11.1N/39.1W
***STOP***
1262.

so the invest is now a depression?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
03L/INVEST/C
TRACK MARK
8.9N/37.2W
9.1N/37.8W
10.2N/38.2W
10.8N/38.7W
11.1N/39.1W
***STOP***

03L? Did I miss something?
Mail TampSpin
Quoting hurricane23:
Also though early just wanted to mention SHIPS model has 94L as a 82kt hurricane in the caribbean.

You can get its ouput HERE.


I wouldn't be surprised to see a Hurricane, wouldn't be the first one of the year.
Quoting JFV:
Guys, could 94L rapidly intensify once it enters the Carib?


JFV - I just have a question for you. With every system that has developed, why do you constantly ask for predictions as to potential threats to Florida or regarding intensity when the system is a couple thousand miles away from impacting any land? As has been stated time and time again, we will have to wait for this to actually organize and develop into a bonafide tropical system before questions like that can even warrant a response.

It seems like you get too excited over each tropical system that develops. We have abundant time to watch this system, so sit back, relax, and enjoy the show until it comes time when anyone may have to start getting concerned about it.
no it's not a depression. The navy site still has invest
no the invest is not a depression typo its been corrected
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
***/INVEST/*
TRACK MARK
8.9N/37.2W
9.1N/37.8W
10.2N/38.2W
10.8N/38.7W
11.1N/39.1W
***STOP***
corrected as invest
typo
didn't this same thing happen when Bertha was forming? The navy messed something up and we all went crazy excited lol
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning
21:00 PM JST July 13 2008

==========================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located near 20.1N 126.4E has 10 minutes sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.3N 125.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

--
93W is reported as a 30 knots depression now, if anyone cares =P

1274. aquak9
JFV- no disrespect, dear...but crown piped in before I could.

I fought an 18 hour battle here for the respect of Mr. Lightbown. I got slammed, recieved wu-mail death threats, and got drug thru the mud. I would do it all over again for him.

Yes, PLEASE provide reference to "other sites" as Mr. Lightbown has worked very hard over the years to provide us with excellent updates.

Thank you for understanding of other's hard work.
1271. jphurricane2006 10:49 AM EDT on July 13, 2008
its not a depression, it will take a few days for that to happen

jfv I have to agree with cchs, we need to take things one step at a time, we like your enthusiasm but you have to realize that the questions you ask are very difficult for even the smartest people on here to answer. Just sit back and relax a bit and analyze what is being said on here before you come out with a question


JFV your my friend and i agree with this ....just relax.....
ive been trackin bertha to long but she's just about gone
I'm back! I had to step out unexpectedly.

I'm assuming the 11 a.m. on Bertha / Elida is out . . .
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm back! I had to step out unexpectedly.

I'm assuming the 11 a.m. on Bertha / Elida is out . . .


Bertha at 65 MPH,
baby steps jfv baby steps
Interesting reconstruction of Bertha this morning. It appered as the left eyewall nived to the east revaling a new eye that was at a lower level. Also in the NE quadrant, it appears the clouds have intensified and Bertha is starting a NW movement,

Also on I94, it appears that circulation has started at 7N 35 W. This could be a massive storm if everything pulls together.
Re read post 1255 TS... Look who I was qouting
Quoting JFV:
There won't be no need for that Sporte, because their ignorant silence towards me, speaks volumes!


I don't know if I missed something but it's probably because you asked them questions every 5 seconds. Don't sweat it though, JFV, they are just dudes that you will never meet, I don't know why you care so much. Just gotta keep on keepin' on. (Que the youtube music video post)

This thing seems like it will continue West for 24-36 hours and then head WNW...is this the consensus?

94l at this time loos rather disorganised the longer it takes to get it's act together the more west it will track. judging from what i am seeing now the system will take sometime before becoming a TD. the system is quite large and it will take time for the convection to consolidate over one spot. my projection of the track is one favouring the UKMET which takes 94L/TD3/ Cristobal through the central windwards and into the central caribbeani
1284. surfmom
Wow -- what a difference a night makes. Go to bed wake up, and there's a bunch of burners making hurricane soup. hope one of these will provoke someone that wants to visit to cancel their tickets... By the time this season is over, I will have many, many lessons in meteorology - maybe I'll even begin to understand, shear maps etc.

in & out
1286. Drakoen
Quoting stoormfury:
94l at this time loos rather disorganised the longer it takes to get it's act together the more west it will track. judging from what i am seeing now the system will take sometime before becoming a TD. the system is quite large and it will take time for the convection to consolidate over one spot. my projection of the track is one favouring the UKMET which takes 94L/TD3/ Cristobal through the central windwards and into the central caribbeani


I don't see the UKMET developing anything, though it is taking the vorticity associated with the low pressure center towards the Leeward islands.
Just as I stated in my update this morning...the NHC/TPC adjusted the wave and low more towards the Navy location with a 1009 low expected to deepen to 1008 mb.

don't see the UKMET developing anything, though it is taking the vorticity associated with the low pressure center towards the Leeward islands.

---
The UKMET did at one point Friday... it has not appear since.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
press, if you light it on fire, then those guys will forget all about you! LOL


Something that has always wondered me. When the paper prints a picture of a big pot burn how come the Deputies are always standing upwind? Any fool ever burned off his pea patch knows that's the wrong side. Upwind's for hunting, downwind's for burning. Any fool who's Moma taught him to come in out of the rain knows that.
Agree....94L still disorganized BUT judging my latest imagery....is getting better organized in terms of cloud pattern and consolidation. Check out the visible loop....

Link
someone wanna give me an update....i see we got 94L
last time the UKMET developed something east of the Leeward Island.

LINK: Jul 11, 1700 UTC
1295. Patrap
UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx Link

GOES-12 Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours) Link

GOES-12 Channel 4 (IR) GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV) GOES-12 Low Cloud Product
well its almost time for update from doc and he's take on 94l i am waitin on the doc lets see what he says about this one
surfmom...you and I are about the same vintage...when you figger it all out please let me know..the more I learn the dumber I feel....
1298. Patrap
To see an update,click on "Tropical/Hurricane" in the Top Task Bar..on every wu-page.

Easy
Good morning all. I have a question. On this wv loop (Link), there is a small spin just east of the bahamas. If that is an ULL, that would impede any development of the blob off Charleston if it keeps moving towards it, right?
That wave coming off the coast of africa is looking pretty healthy
Sorry - went out to pull weeds and water.

1232. Thanks TS!

1235. Philliesrock ( i disagree with your handle lol) Thank you so much for the info.
1186. HurricaneMaryJane

JFV is one of the few pure in heart left in this cynical world. Sort of our Forest Gump only smarter. That's why we all love him so.
Bertha...

"She's breakin' up, Captain!"
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
1186. HurricaneMaryJane

JFV is one of the few pure in heart left in this cynical world. Sort of our Forest Gump only smarter. That's why we all love him so.


Yea he's a good dude. I love you JFV! Your one of the last genuinely nice people left on Earth lol...
Quoting NC0WX0Man:
Presslord why do you get so bothered by the Carolina reference? I live in N. Carolina and all the time when the local news or mets are refering to both they say the Carolina's. I've heard older people refer to SC as NC's sister state so why do you get upset?


"The Carolinas" is plural, implying there are two of them. Where is the "Carolina" coast?

Press, I can feel ur pain. To Wit:

Let me put out the advance notice: The Bahamas IS (singular) a country. The Bahama Islands are (plural) an archipelago of more than 1000 islands, cays (pronounced keys) and rocks. The word "Bahama's" should not be used because it is a possessive form of an adjective!!!

See press, ur not the only one who gets picky about a name . . . LOL
Baha...once Aqua started referring to "the Floridas"...I started to feel a little better....
Can anyone tell me when the H currently over part of the Gulf coast is forecast to move it's hot, dry butt?
Floater up on SSD for 94L..

1311. Drakoen
Expected to move towards the WNW:
Photobucket
94l is def. trying to get a llc going around 9,37...i dont think it will take that long to get going....watch to see the mid and upper levels to start spinning alongside by tommorrow morning....should be a fun one to watch organize...sad thing is, i dont see this missing everyone. someone will be affected...in some way, shape or form.
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.
1314. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.
Low level convergence looks great.
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.


Drak. Is this the result of the perturbation you were referring to a few days ago? Because if it was, you hit the nail on the head with the formation of this system!
If 94l becomes Cristobal would it survive passing through the Caribbean?
1318. CJ5
Morning all. I see we have 94L and of course Bertha is still churning. I wonder if we will be including Bertha in our discussions along with 95L, 96L, 97L and so on. She doesn't seem to want to exit..lol
1319. IKE
Quoting watchingnva:
94l is def. trying to get a llc going around 9,37...i dont think it will take that long to get going....watch to see the mid and upper levels to start spinning alongside by tommorrow morning....should be a fun one to watch organize...sad thing is, i dont see this missing everyone. someone will be affected...in some way, shape or form.


I would agree.
1320. Drakoen
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.


Drak. Is this the result of the perturbation you were referring to a few days ago? Because if it was, you hit the nail on the head with the formation of this system!


It was an unmarked tropical wave so I called it a perturbation within the ITCZ. MIMIC-TPW started showing some bulging moisture and some cyclonic rotation which is typical of tropical waves/lows.
They also moved the "NC Fires" floater to watch the area off of SC:

Link
hows everyone doing this morning?...how busy will everyones ignore user button be over the next few days as this system forms...lol
Quoting presslord:
Baha...once Aqua started referring to "the Floridas"...I started to feel a little better....



If you really want to kick up a dust storm try referring to The Virginias. Brings back all the pain an resentment of the Resent War of Northern Aggression
invest off south north caroliner on ssd site is that a mistake
so do we have invest 95l off the carolina coast now...wow

things are def. heating up now...
1326. Drakoen
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
invest off south north caroliner on ssd site is that a mistake


That's not a mistake. There's an area of low pressure there that could see some slow development.
Batten the hatches mates! Things are going to start getting crazy around here. Is there a chance the system behind 94L could weaken it, if 94L does develop? (which according to NHC appears likely at present...shear is incredibly low.) Is there any African dust to be had?
1328. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:
Batten the hatches mates! Things are going to start getting crazy around here. Is there a chance the system behind 94L could weaken it, if 94L does develop? (which according to NHC appears likely at present...shear is incredibly low.) Is there any African dust to be had?



SAL
i got a total of 3 floaters for atlantic up on my screen
1330. JRRP
94L go to venezuela ??
(Aside) Yes JFV is a very polite young man, but I would also like to see him in a tee shirt.
1332. IKE
Quoting JRRP:
94L go to venezuela ??


Not according to the TPC
IKE, am I reading that map right? Looks like widespread SAL but generally weak.
1334. 0741
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.
this the one model were forcast??????
1335. IKE
Quoting FranAteMyRoof96:
IKE, am I reading that map right? Looks like widespread SAL but generally weak.


True.
i will tell you one thing...she doesnt look great, but berth is trying to fight back...with more, stronger covection south and north...

even still, time to shift focus to 94l and soon to be 95l...
Re: SAL...doesn't look good, does it Ike?
hmmm. Maybe the system behind 94L will weaken it?
1333 You're handle is hilarious
1340. Drakoen
Quoting 0741:
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.
this the one model were forcast??????


Yes.
wooooww.I leave for about an hour or so and bam..it's heatin up
1343. 0741
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting 0741:

Quoting Drakoen:

Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.
this the one model were forcast??????


Yes.
you so right i been seen your posting you say by sunday and today it happen you very good keep good job
Here's a visible of the LLC of the South Carolina coast.

Tiny thing.

Quoting FranAteMyRoof96:
Good morning all. I have a question. On this wv loop (Link),
there is a small spin just east of the bahamas. If that is an ULL, that
would impede any development of the blob off Charleston if it keeps
moving towards it, right?

Not trying to be a pest, but thought I would repost this question now that it's 95L.
New Blog
Well, I'm sufficiently impressed for one morning. Will check back this afternoon.
Drak is right as long as the system has it's appendages attached to the ITCZ then development will be slow to occur. the longer the 94L stays within the itcz the longer track will move due west and create problems for the islands and the central and northwest caribbean
bertha looks to be slowly shifting se with building cloud deck ne

invest off caroline coasts appears to be slowly starting to rebuild convection lets see what the daytime heat does to that

94l got to start pullin up just a bit

lots to watch this 13th of july
New Blog
1351. surfmom
1333 - great handle --mine should have been Franbrokemynose ROTFL
Quoting presslord:
Baha...once Aqua started referring to "the Floridas"...I started to feel a little better....


Wait.

You mean there's more than one?!?!?!?!

[opens eyes extra wide]
1353. Dakster
Is it me or is the GFS becoming accurate atpredcting when and where storms will form?

I don't remember this accuracy last year with the GFS...
The South Carolina disturbance is in bad shape, but 94L is looking extremely good, and there are favorable conditions for development, so I think it will become Cristobal in a couple of days.

Felix
I don't see an update..... :/