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Nothing new in the tropics today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on August 08, 2006

A tropical wave moving westward at 15-20 mph over the mid-Atlantic near 13N 47W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to have the potential to develop into a tropical depression. The wave has a well defined surface circulation, and is currently under about 10-15 knots of wind shear, which is low enough to allow some slow development. However, there is quite a bit of dry air surrounding the storm, and thunderstorm activity is limited. It appears unlikely the wave will develop today. However, the long-range outlook for this wave is a little more favorable than it appeared yesterday. The upper level low that was expected to bring hostile wind shear over the wave later this week has weakened and is no longer expected to be a major influence. There is still expected to be 10-20 knots of wind shear along the path of the wave the remainder of the week, which is just low enough that a depression may be able to form. Dry air will continue to be a problem for the wave, and will likely keep development slow. The GFDL model predicts that the wave will develop by Thursday into a weak tropical storm, and move through the central Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Caribbean Sea. None of the other computer models develop the wave. I expect that the GFDL has the right idea, and this wave will develop into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the wave on Wednesday at 2pm EDT.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the mid-Atlantic tropical wave.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave moving through the Bahamas is under 20-30 knots of wind shear and is not expected to develop. An area of intense thunderstorms off the coast of North Carolina is also under high wind shear, and is not expected to develop. Long range models are showing the possibility of development off the Carolina coast this weekend, but anything developing here would likely be a threat only to Bermuda.

I'll be back this afternoon with an update, and an analysis of the NOAA updated seasonal hurricane forecast, due out later this morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Fl30258713- Thanks. Maybe That should happen to the loose cannons that show up on here.

Here is an interesting article about Hurricane Isabel and the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Thanks to our brave military.

Link
Taz: 91L doesn't have a central pressure of 1001mb. 456 was commenting on the buoy west of 91L.
Guys here on this close up you can see the Thunderstorms fireing up very close if not over the LLC...


Taz, where did you hear that 91L has 1001mb?
Delray is sunny and no clouds in sight 40 miles north of Miami
Bless your heart animalrsq. Had to be absolutely heartbreaking.
Hey Hurricane23, where are you getting those images from?
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:28 PM AST on August 08, 2006.
Weather456 wow if 91L have a 1001mb we need to keep a eye on the mb it may be as low as 995 or lower be for they fly in there so we need to keep a eye on it


No Taz, this is a station near 91L:

Posted By: Weather456 at 4:10 PM AST on August 08, 2006.
1011.7 mb
-1.4 mb ( Falling )

By Station 41040 - West Atlantic (near 91L)
jphurricane2004 said - "good point lonestar; we will have to watch it, but this is the time when convection shouldnt be firing"

Can't argue with that, jp. I just hate to get my hopes up and then get let down, which has been the case so far this season. I'll wait and see what happens in the next 4-6 hours with 91L.
New blog is up
Don't want that last comment to sound bad. Meant for it to say Thanks for our military for being brave. We need more like the gaurds at the Tomb of the Unknown Solider.
...The smarter you are, the less you know...
The more ball like appearance is showing a sign to me that the shear is not present over 91L currently.I will be looking for persistence tonight as far as thunderstorm activity goes.
Maria keeps changing course..

The JSL is used for tropical classification, it only highlights deep convection needed to form and maintain a TD and so on.
animal....do you work for them fulltime..or just with their disaster relief efforts?
4:15pmEDT - This new convection is still firing. Still playing the wait and see game. The warm SST, that hurricane23 said 91L would enter today, could have help contribute to this outburst.

30mph
1009mbar

new blog
i see the GFDL is back on board
a new blog is up
severe - Link

click on atlantic/caribbean visible, click animation box and then click the area of interest on the map for a closeup loop
522. 0741
were is new blog?
Shear is droping fast over the system...Now 10 to 12 knots over the system.

The tutt is at 57 west...
Posted By: ihave27windows at 8:11 PM GMT on August 08, 2006.
The most depressing thing about the song "When the Levee Breaks" is that I had that album on 8track.

hehehe...on that was funny ;-)
Wow, look at the banding in the SE quadrant of 91L. Looking pretty encouraging!

refresh tropical page to see new blog from Dr Masters
Thanks Naples
i agree Nash, just one of those things to monitor i also think more towards 8pm but i will just wait and see
529. 0741
i still getting 10:48 am blog!!!!!!from jeff master
Steve Lyons just said that 91L may become a TD by tommorow. But for now it still looks like an open wave.
yea I saw that mermaidlaw. He said the wave has to be more persistant with the convection.

Exacly what you guys were saying!!
Hello alaina
I just walked in in time to catch that, from Steve Lyons. I haven't had time to check things out yet. Guess we will wait and see! LOL
Mayfield is on the TWC right now!
for once i agree with TWC unless it can do some impressive orginization by 11pm but hey we just never know
4:45pmEDT - Not only has convection increase, it is not speading across the system.

Mayfield said that even though this year is not as active as last year, that it is still alittle above average, and that people should stay prepared.
when you think about it it is above average an avergae storm between july to mid August is 0-2 we have had 3 already so its not slow and of course nothing like last year
...sees the flare -up of convection around the developing seedling ..these long track cape verde systems seem to have the best chance to develop if they survive the shear this year...