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Nothing immediately coming to follow Tammy

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:55 PM GMT on October 06, 2005

Tammy
Tammy is still generating heavy rains of up to 1/2 inch per hour in North Carolina and South Carolina, but this storm has done its worst and no longer has any spin. A portion of the storm may pop back out over the Gulf of Mexico Friday, but no tropical storm development is expected, due to wind shear from an upper level low in the Gulf. A cold front is expected to arrive over the East Coast Friday, pulling the remains of Tammy northward up the front, drenching the entire East Coast. Rainfall amounts from Tammy will generally be in the 1 - 3 inch range along the coast, and 3 - 6 inches in the Appalachians, creating some localized flooding problems.

Stan Jr.
The large area of thunderstorms that broke off from Stan yesterday is now a 1004 mb low pressure system just north of the western tip of Cuba. This system has just a small area of deep convection to the southeast of the center. Upper-level outflow is apparent to the southeast, but nowhere else. Wind shear of about 10 knots from westerly upper-level winds is pushing the convection away from the center. Observations from Cuban radar confirm that this a poorly organized system with a few bands of heavy showers over western Cuba.

This system is expected to push northward the next two days, spreading heavy rain and high winds over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula. Development into a tropical depression is not likely, given the system's current disorganized state. This system no longer looks like a big rain-producer for Florida, and some of the flood watches posted for the state may be dropped later today if the system does not gain any more strength. Stan Jr. will continue to the northeast and dump another 1 -2 inches of rain on the areas already affected by Tropical Storm Tammy.


Figure 1. Model tracks for Stan Jr.--the tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

Stan
The death toll from Hurricane Stan still stands at 162, including 62 deaths in El Salvador, 79 in Guatemala, and 21 in Nicaragua, Mexico, and Honduras. The remnants of Stan are no longer dumping heavy rain on the area, and only scattered thunderstorms are expected in the disaster area the next five days.


Figure 2. Stan's observed rainfall from the NASA TRMM satellite. Rainfall amounts as high as 400 mm (16 inches) were observed along the coast.

Stan III?
The remants of Stan have formed a large area of intense convection near the Mexican coast by Puerto Vallarta, and winds of 40 - 50 mph have been observed in association with this system. However, no surface circulation has been observed yet, and this is not quite yet a tropical storm. This system will track northwestward over the next few days and threaten Baja California and the mainland Mexican coast.

Vince?
A tropical disturbance near 9N 43W, about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, it looking more ragged this afternoon. It is not expected to become a tropical depression today. About 10 knots of shear from strong westerly winds is affecting the disturbance, but models indicate that this shear may decrease over the next day or two. The disturbance is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. A more northwestery motion is likely by Saturday, thanks to the steering influence of a large upper-level low pressure system at 25N 60W.


Figure 3. Model tracks for the mid-Atlantic disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Plenty of low pressure and light wind shear continue to characterize the rest of the tropics, and we need to keep a watchful eye for new suspect areas that may crop up.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Flood watch in FL was cancelled. Not much rain at all here.
Great. Just overcast with a lot of drizzle by me.
although it does look like we will still have blah weather for awhile.Link
well, we got your rain here in myrtle beach.....

winds from east all day, around 25mph, and about an inch yesterday, and 2 inches today of rain.......

looks like we have a couple more hours of rain on the way......

well, since stan jr. doesnt look promising, guess we will have to turn our eyes toward vince? :)
I say lets have a quiet tropics in October!
Still super overcast here, but barely a breath of wind.
Hey, NHC put the frames in the wrong order. Tammy is doing a little wiggle dance!
Link
Looks like a few heavy bands coming in later.
rainy here (cocoa beach)
Coconut - LOL
I dont like the looks of the models for potential "Viince"
"Vince"
hey all how are things lol
do you have a link 21?
Just entered this on my blog...have fun ripping me up!!!

Hello all,
as of 2:45 pm CDT...from the swamps of SE LA...

Storm-weary W & N Gulf Coast residents rejoice...Look what's racing down from the NW..can it be? Yessss.. a real, bonafide COLD FRONT! Bringing cooler, fall temps for all - Dallas in up 50's this morn. behind front..Unfortunately it will slow down as it reaches Cen Florida, but W FL Panhandle should get behind the front by late Fri.

The N Gulf ULL has begun to be affected by the cold front as well. Reviewing last 12-18 hrs. it has become elongated as it rotated NW, W, SW, now appears to be looping S to SSE below LA, MS and might be moving eastward back toward FL. Also expect it to continue weakening somewhat, likely merging w/ frontal trof on late Fri and further weaken and move NE along the frontal boundary. I guess the ULL could continue further S and become stationary, waiting there to begin moving w/ the front, but feel less confident of that.... Of course, this is my 2 cents worth....

Effects from this action today probably will not allow remains of YucaStan surface low - now over NW tip of Cuba - to gather much significant convection around itself as the ULL is blowing off everything to the SE of LLC - which continues moving ENE/NE above Cuba. Net effect - ULL is pulling down dry continental air toward the SE Gulf, and hindering any development as the environment above the 1004 mb surface low is being entrained w/ that dry air. The ULL will have to weaken considerably and/or move to the E/NE before suface low could develope - which seems a more likely scenario by Fri. nite/Sat. onward.
Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture continues to be pulled northward on the eastern flank of the Gulf ULL.

Also noticed another 1006 mb surface low above the Yucatan moving SSE, so either one could become a "player" by this weekend and early next week from FL up the East Coast. Regardless if any surface low developes, south half FL has chance rain thru weekend w/ approaching front.

Ok, now that I've "stepped all in it" and walked out on another (broken) limb w/ this unqualified prediction...I'll probably be the laughing stock of all the bloggers here...We'll see what happens.....
could someone explain Herbert's box theory to me? please forgive my ignorance, i am very new at this...
21.. looks like potential 'Vince' is going to possibly make it in to the carribean....not a good thing
Coco, I'm talking about the models on Skeetobiteweather.com
ok, I am a super n00b at weather stuff, but this is an amazing journey that Dr. Masters took. I almost want to change careers, win the powerball, and buy a p-3 hunter plane and fly into hurricanes. Thank you for the amazing 1st person view of a trip into the eye. roflz

LINK
Weatherdude - Were you the one telling me it would threaten NC if not going out to sea? Do you still think that (oh please oh please say yes!)?
Vince maybe? Link
21: I've noticed throughout the day that the "yucastan" (stole that from Doc) predictions are moving more and more south. Earlier they were all pretty consistent around Tampa or a little north of there. Now they are more inconsistent and southerly.
You are right, coconut. I noticed that, too.
Link

some models still pointing at the Cuban low hitting me...(LI, NY) wonder what will happen.......
Yucastan models Link
21...actually if that system does not start moving up more to the north, it will probably die right where it is. It has to be further north in order for it to keep what rotation it has. If it does that, then I see it moving in a WNW direction for a while. I do believe that it will get past the leeward islands, again, IF it moves more to the north. Hard to tell with it so far out what may or may not effect it's direction. This cold front coming down right now, I feel will not be able to move it out to sea.
Link look everyone, the remnants of Stan is telling everyone that he loves us LOL
29. iyou
Navarregal - You can read about it here : http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
Check this out. The frame kicks out right before a blue blob appears over the bahamas so I can't tell if this is from Yucastan or the thing to our east. Any thoughts on this?
Thanks much! I'll go educate myself
Hey between Tammy's wiggle and Stan's lovenote there may be something spawning from an "interaction" of the two! That is my official forecast!!!
lol, weatherdude.
link would be nice....Link
Coconut - I have noticed that too..
So the question is where did that blue blob over the bahamas come from?
Thanks weatherdude
Coconut - maybe it's the atlantic wave?
actually 21..I was just looking at the VL of that system, and it looks like the 'center' has reformed to the north a bit, which would be good for development
What's with the goofy frames today? First the tammy wiggle and now the model has a missing frame at a pivotal moment.
I just noticed the blob in the Bahamas too...I think it's a surface trough left behind by Tammy. I also think that once Yucastan and the Tammy trough interact, a new storm could form. Either way, still looking at similar weather up and down the east coast this weekend.
Doc: if you're out there... good job on Yucastan. It appears to be catchy.
Link Just making a guess on the blue blob on the GFS....look just north of eastern cuba, there seems to be a slight rotation trying to develope.
iyou - thanks again, that was cool stuff
45. iyou
;-)
The sea level pressure models indicate that Vince-to-be may come my way on Long Island.

That's a long time from now, though.
weatherdude: I think I see what you mean. In the last frame, a little section moving to the SW. I think we would need to see more frames to know for sure.
primez...you're on Long Island too? lol
Regardless, though, it is a mess out there on that link. Simply as a numbers game you would think something had to develop.
Yeah. You are? Wow.
coconut...I agree with you on that. I'll see what it looks like later tonight.
Off topic article about Katrina evacuees in hotels being asked to leave. Link
New OLinkrleans Katrina evacuee hits 1.6 million jackpot
Hey Coco, ..yeah calling it that seemed appropriate....but now I'm wondering what if the other weak surface low approaching the Yucatan from the north should become more dominant we'll have to come up with another variation on the "name" as it didn't originate from Stan - at least I don't think so. LOL.

Ya'll take care..be back tonite - more dang yard work awaits.

PS - sorry for the slow reply...shoulda called myself - DialupImpairedDoc. LOL...
Stan Jr stretching far afield - We're having serious rain and wind here (Cayman Islands) Kicked up within the last half hour.
I'm gone for the night....check back in tomorrow..have to watch Survivor and The Apprentice tonight
wheres saint simons island at ..........I want to know how much fun he had last evening..........lol
When will sea temperatures start to cool? Seems like the water is still hotter than what I shower in.
as soon as we get some cold fronts to come down or the worst case scenario, another major hurricane will upwell the cooler waters.....basically a cold front which starts in a couple of weeks.....
Saint Simons.........are you lurking amongest the lurkers...........lol
61. iyou
CaymanGal - You might want to talk with hurricanecrab in HillsboroughBay's blog - he lives on Cayman Brac- would that be the right name??
21, I see what you mean about the possible "Vince" reminds me of another hurricane... His name started with "I".
Do not say the "I" word! Yikes!
Tammy just stopped dead in her tracks and went due south according to the tracking map 5 pm EDT update. Wow that is really wild!
Dr Masters:

I live in Guatemala. There is quite a disaster in all the Pacific coastline. More that 100 death and counting, water is above 1m in most communities.

Due to montanious terrain the rain is more and the rapids are stronger. We have areas that moves from sea level to 8000ft height in less than 40 miles difference.

I love your blog and all the information you present to all. Regarding rainfall let me quote last official measurements to prove what you say about the accumulations. These are 245 hours, from tuesday, wednesday was aprox 70% of those, but you can see easily were more than 400mm in that span of time, Sep 29, to oct. 5.

These accumulations are more than registered in that area for hurricane Mitch.

Regards

Norman
Link

24 hrs rain from 04/12Z to 05/12z OCT 2005

Retalhuleu 266mm (10.5 pulgadas)
Aduana Tecn Uman (Front Mexico) 265mm (10.5 pulgadas)
Pedro de Alvarado (Front El Salvador) 188mm (7.4 pulgadas)
San Jose 134mm (5.23 pulgadas)
Quetzaltenango 131mm (5.22 pulgadas)
Guatemala 70mm (2.75 pulgadas)
See all tomorrow! Time to go home.
NOT AT ALL SURPRISED AT THE RISING DEATH TOLL IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HURRICANE STAN.THE UNPREDICTED RATHER SPEEDY SOUTH-WEST DIVE OF THE HURRICANE INTO SOUTH-EAST MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS A LOT OF PRECEDENT IN THE PAST WITH HURRICANE MITCH RECENTLY AND HURRICANE FIFI IN 1973 DOING THE SAME THING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.APPARENTLY THERE IS SOMETHING FORECASTERS DO NOT QUITE UNDERSTAND WHEN HURRICANES GET INTO THAT AREA,MAYBE HAVING TO DO WITH THE STORM'S CIRCULATION INTERACTING WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AHEAD OF IT.WHATEVER,THAT INTERACTION HAS ALWAYS LED TO DISASTEROUS CIRCUMSTANCES WITH VERY MOIST AIR BEING SUCKED IN FROM BOTH THE PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN AND WHEN FORCED TO RISE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS BACKBONE OF CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCES DANGEROUSLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE CONSEQUENCES.
i hav updated my blog
I highly recommend that everyone read the link that Boogerman provided in his post at 8:26GMT. A fascinating first hand report of hurricane chasing by Dr. Masters.
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I think that we're all lucky that Dr. Masters has created this blog. I never asked for his exact credentials, but after reading this story you'll see for yourself that they are substantial.
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The whole blog seems to have gotten more substantiave in recent days. Thank you to Docindeswamp for his funny and informative posts. Thank you also to our more enthusiastic and obsessed posters who seem to have gone into hibernation. Dr. Masters blog is better without you. But if you set up YOUR OWN blog I will be interested.
Honestly, you have a point - that people should move off Dr. Master's blog comments and go to a forum or message board which is designed for discussion - but the nastiness probably isn't called for.

Perhaps propose moving offtopic discussion somewhere else? Might help more.
It appears that Stan may have an eye again on satellite.
Boogerman, thanks for the link! What a story!
Zap
Whats up people....The tropics are taking a short break....nothing wrong with that.....none of the potential areas are having a easy time getting good strong convection.....the atmosphere is unsettled but with upperlevel lows mixing in also.....interesting.....
Weatherboyfsu do you still have the list of the number off storms for the season that we did awhile back?
I read that story about Dr. Masters, which is why I was so upset at that fool taking low punches at Dr. Jeff yesterday. I think Dr. Jeff is more than qualified.

Oh, and why do I get the feeling that it's about to rain for a little while here in Jax?
weatherboyfsu, do you think the rain will be out of the Orlando area Saturday..or will it be later in the weekend? We have a camping trip planned...trying to decide whether or not to go for it...
Raysfan......yes I do.........and Irecthh......It should be nice.....the NWS has a 40% chance listed for saturday....it could be higher......its still very warm here and moist......
raysfan....you had 16........i had 14, I guess I was off.......lol......alot of those people back then dont come on here no more, I guess they got tired of all the bickering and fussing......
most of us are in alecs blog now. Can you go to HillsboroughBay blog and post for us, as alec is really busy now.
Thought that is what i said. Guess I missed it.
WillJax... great job how you are keeping track of the Hebert Box...and the un-named down there.. thanks! :)
Sorry to post about Hebert's Box and then run. I had to drive downtown to pick someone up.

Anyway, buffalobillsfan mentioned Hebert's box in earlier post's today. Hebert's Box shows a significant statistiacal correlation between storms passing through these boxes and making a S.Fla. Landfall. Though IMHO the results of such correlational studies may be as much chance as anything else, the results have been unnerving nonetheless

Read the link and the picture below will make more sense:


Ha ha, post was already in the works billsfan!

Its raining, it's pouring....
As a South Floridian Heberts box is no joke....I have been saying this for years and it is wild that we are just now seeing the fist possibility...such a wild year that no verde storms have even come near it....

major DSN problem across the country has kept people from accessing web sites...the only two sites i could not get were this one and Drudge Report....I can't believe how weird it was having to go to nhc for info....I felt lost....especially with a system right on my SW (yucastan good one doc!) Problem fixed for me now..so if peoplle have been awol...now you know the rest of the story
The 5:30 update from NHC, it has more areas of concern than I have seen all season. For October it sure is busy.
Going out with a bang?
Look who just entered thr Gulf...Link...Tammy. Just S. of
Panama City, FL.
My report on Tammy for weatherboyfsu

It was a dark and stormy night..
Well, I have looked closely at the GFS, and the area that is described to form a cyclone over the Bahamas in about 3.5 days most definitely travels east from the Yucatan, across Cuba, and to the Bahamas.

Apparently the area of vorticity to blame already exists, however conditions may change since Stan Jr. is already taking a different path than that GFS depicts...
I went out first time around 7:30 p.m. Absolutely blinding rain. Visibility less than 1/4 mile at beaches. Tide was about 1/2 foot above a normal high tide 2 1/2 hours before high tide. Wind gust of 52 mph on beach in squall. Waves not extraordinary. Aside from the insane rainfall which I have never seen surpassed, I doubt weatherboyfsu would have been impressed

Second trip at 10 p.m. to follow.....
Willjax..Does it appear to loop back or is it just me?
It was still a good night.....a little taste of mother natures fury......not bad........good to see your still alive and kickin.......I got to run....catch you later
St.Simons..any widespread power outages in your neighborhood?
ejstrick, do you mean loop back to Florida? It may, at the very last frame of the run the winds are definitely from the east heading toward Florida...but it may pass south of Florida if it were to form there.

Anyone noticed that the Danger Area higlighted by the NHC is in fat Puerto Rico blob, aka the tail end of the trough that was originally the prime candidate to become Tammy!
At 10 p.m. last night a feeder band was training over northern half of St. simons while southern half was rain free. Strong gust winds had changed direction from NE to ESE. Sustained at 30-35 mph Tide was about 3 to 3 1/2 feet above normal. Water level was about 1 foot higher during hurricane Jeanne, but the astronomical tide was higher then too. Waves were noticably higher than in Frances or Jeanne last year. Breaking waves at St. Simons Island pier created huge billows of spray 10'-15' high that blew over the pier. Most impressive looking

Rainfall has been unprecedented

Oct 1 0.37"
Oct 2 1.08"
Oct 3 0.81"
Oct 4 6.78"
Oct 5 7.94"
Oct 6 0.25"

Total 17.23"

Lowest pressure observed at home 29.65", highest winds at McKinnon airport on St. Simons (KSSI) 33 gust 46 mph.
Oops dammit the figure for Oct 6 should be 0.22" and the total should be 17.20". This is Mike talking here, Rich is sleeping.
Thanks weatherboyfsu
Ya St. Simons, that's unbelievable! AND YOU HAVE MORE ON THE WAY! *evil hackle*
Official rainfall for TammyLink
Actually the record here for October rainfall is (was) 13.70"

The problem is that KSSI was not reporting for 37 hours on the 4th and 5th during which we received 9" rain. Our figure is about 7 1/2 " more than the 'official' figures state.

Mark for wettest month of all time is 21.19" in Aug 1962. Will we beat it?
ej McKinnon did not report anything from 1 am Oct 4th to 2 pm Oct 5th, during which time we receieved 9 inches of rain. The figure in that list may be official but it is WRONG!
Why didn't KSSI report earlier?
KSSI was not reporting anything at all during those 37 hours.
hello again everybody lol anything new happen while I was gone? =)
Hey guys, looks fairly quiet out in the tropics. Meanwhile, you gotta love that Kansas weather. 2 days ago: the high temp was 87. Today: 57.
looks as if Tammy's circulation is moving back out over the water....I'm thinking it and Yucastan will interact to provide us with our next storm.
Stan is definitely being retired from the list. the death toll was just raised to 231.
111. dcw
For those of you wishing to move the discussion, my site is still available here.
Stan will be the first "S" storm ever to be retired; that makes it five this year. Now if they rename him Pilar in the Pacific, he/she might take a shot at retiring that name, too....
primez...where about on LI are you? just curious
114. dcw
If the Yucastan develops, do you think it'll be named Stan or Vince?
My guess would be Vince.
It would definitely be Vince--the original Stan is still out there south of Mexico.
I think it'd be named Vince because it's a new circulation
I live in Suffolk County. South coast.
dude...Suffolk County north shore lol
120. dcw
Okely Dokely.
That's cool.
Actually, I believ Stan Jr. will be Wilma, not Vince. :)
The wave east of the Antilles looks like it is being sheared apart.
124. dcw
Agreed. But Yucastan is firing some impressive convection.
Hello jeffs blog I'm back. Its been along while.
126. dcw
To those asking about the site: Look @ the developer's blog.
This could get interesting.....the way Stan sr. and tammy have taken hard sw turns is pretty wild.....I agree that it could be a possibility for these two to hook up and have a baby..A inter-racial boy named Vince. Yucastan may be playing hard to get and is running east...RUN YUCASTAN you will only get depressed!!!!!!
128. dcw
Lol, buhdog.

*gets to work on a hurricane love story spoof*
"Actually, I believ Stan Jr. will be Wilma, not Vince. :)"

If that's the case, then it will be the Daughter of Stan instead of the Son of Stan :-D
130. dcw
I have to wonder how many plays on names we're going to be able to come up with.
hey..... whats that blob going from the yucastan towards jamaica?

Western Atlantic Water Vapor Loop

looks Lile there is some low level circ goin on there?
First time posting, but I have been watching everyone posting since Charley. I live just north of Orlando Fla.

Can anyone tell me anything about the wave in the Atlantic?
which one (there r so many)
Sorry. The one that is just east of the Antillies
Hi,

Today is such an exciting day, things are popping and have you all noticed that Lefty, tornadoty, stormjunkie, stormydee and some others have all vanished. Do you not think it odd that on such a good weather day all the key players are gone. I guess that they must be darn tired of all the trolls and constant flack that they have to take on a daily basis...
Now if any of you guys scroll through this old blog, please email me to let me know where you are so I can continue to lurk and learn. I promise that I will be as quiet as a mouse...
just got an extremely squally band here in myrtle beach......

40mph gusts, and very heavy rain! beating on the windows! LOL

ok tammy, go away now! LOL

rain storm total 4 inches...... (3in today)
Ever since last year and the triple whammy, I get nervous every time the wind blows. I am still learning how to navigate around this site, so I cant seem to find where I need to look to find out where it is heading.
models and NHC are suggesting it could become Td 21 in the next 36 hours or so, and as long as shear remains low it should. For now it is moving WNW but a turn more to the NW is expected
TY AM. I really hope it makes the NW turn. I think mentally I could handle another hit.
What's up with Captain Hook on the GFS in 3 days?
sorry, couldn't
guy7s ramsdids has a great ir of our are if ypu want a better view.....you have to omit a few pics but its great
Well TY for the info AM. I'll keep my eye to the east. LOL
whats going on all i see leftyy and all those guys are gone nice and quie for a change dont u think
Very quiet.
VERY QUIET
I would rather have their banter mixed with information rather than it being quiet.
Me Too, and this is my first time posting and no one here to talk with. Figures
Hi! I'm here but whispering b/c it is so quiet. Cosmic must be happy that there is no "chit chat"

shhhhhhh.......
Coconut, I saw the article on those football players, Very sad.
It really is. The whole neighborhood was talking about it today.
I live in Oviedo, just north east of Orlando. Are you watching the wave just east of the ANtillies?
Where are you all at Canejunky, Trouper, Boldman, and anyone else out in quiet land.
lol all yeah but they do have lots of info and they provide it in chatty form
by CC
Jupiter Farms here. Did those boys make it, I haven't seen any news since last night.
Canejunky: do you have esp? You answered before I asked :)

Earlier a thing called Hebert's box was discussed. It looks like it might end up in that area so I am definitely watching closely.
wow im gone for like three days and there are alot of new people welcome to the blogging paradise lol acually when there is no bs from people in here it relly is paradise lol
No esp, just wanted to let ya know I'm in your neck of the woods, sorta
Cool. I'm neighbors with boldman!
One 14-15 year old died. A lot of other kids and a police officer were injured.
Sorry to blog and run but got to do some family stuff. See you later!
Ok...so Tammy is back in the Gulf....looks to be forming a cloudless "eye" below Pensacola. Dr. Masters said earlier that the shear would keep it from forming again. Still true?
TC Coconut
I'm sorry to know that. I know we get a bunch of lightening but I guess I never expect it to kill people. It's amazingly powerful stuff!
Boldman if this is your idea of paradise....you need to get a life
If the Atlantic disturbance makes it through Herbet's box, does anyone predict development into a 'cane and will it make landfall in FL?
Cane, Thats what I've been told. They say if it makes it through the box it usally hits S. Fla
Evening all. GA is getting more rain they dont need.

Boldman is from Cali. How are ya'll neigbors Coconut?

Evening Jeff.
HI! IT SURE IS QUIET IN HERE! MIND IF I SHOUT?!?
Zap
I think the same could be said about the Box for the whole E coast up to OBX. Just S FLA sticks out like a sore thumb so they take most of them. Kinda like the Outer Banks.
Sup guys, I'm out here in woodacre california. Little town north of San Francisco enjoying an above average fall so far. I've taken 1 Meteorology class so far but I love weather and am currently addicted to these weather blogs muahahahaha.

Anyone else here about the 'Polar Coaster' type winter we are (THE US) is supposedly going to experience?

WUNDER!
Polar Coaster?

Do inform?

If it means SE snow I am all for it.
I would rather see snow then these dang Canes.
Again guys......There is a MAJOR problem with DNS 's across the country...Unable to access sites...some were good others not..I was off for 2 days on just 2 different sites...i have a feeling they will be back..I for one hope they do...it's kinda like a buffet.....the more the better...I may not eat it..you may not eat it, but at least it is food. Lefty is like the prime....and if he was't being banged by people he would not get pretentious...I think he relays good info.
Hi. Back again.

Did I misunderstand Boldman? You said you were from CC and I assumed you meant coconut creek.

Junky,

Should be a fair/normal fall with mild conditions in most places. Rain will be above normal but for the most part less snow. However! As we get into the meat and potatos of winter when the days and nights grow dark, the Northeast should experience lots and lots of snow storms. The Polar Coaster condentation comes from the fluxuation of temperatures the US will experience

The coldest weather will be in the Northeast, which also will get plenty of snow, the almanac said. It predicts cold weather for the South and Mid-Atlantic regions and snowy but mild weather in the Great Lakes and Midwest.

Parts of the Rockies and the Great Plains may have drier-than-normal weather, adding to the area's continuing drought, but wetter-than-normal weather is predicted for the Pacific Northwest and lower Texas.


I agree, I was on lastnight and enjoyed what they had to say, very informative.

thanks Buhdog, feel better now
TY Trouper, I was confussed when you said Polar Coaster.
I agree. I have found Lefty and StormJunkie and the rest to be very informative as well. Lefty once went through a whole scenario explaining something to a question I had that was quite interesting.....

In fact....
Stay tuned for Tonight's Episode of...

The Best of Lefty!
I just can't tell what Yucastan is doing. Today I thought matbe it was a diurnal cycle spooling up and then blowing out, but tonight it seems to be persisting, though drifting oddly S.

Is the Antilles system going to merge with the 10N activity? Seems like some activity all over, yet nothing concentrated. A simmer, but no boils.

It seems to me that the area south of the eastern islands, along 20N, has low shear and some convection, and might provide an environment for dev'p, with just a bit more energy.

Thoughts?

Zap
yeah the wave is a ripple in the atmosphere and the convergence is amplifying that ripple to generate more convection than the wave wouldnormaly be able to produce.

the easiest way to visualise and understand the weather is to visualise it like a liquid. thats why i have referred to the fluidity of the atmosphere ona number of occasions. the wave is like a small ripple in a pond and the convergance is like a current flowing towards that ripple causeing the ripple to grow. somthing like that lol. convection is strong lift, the ripple rising up in repsonse to the convergence, and generating mositure thru condensation


than when u have convection and that convection starts to rotate and pressure starts todrop in response to the lift u can form a low pressure system and a broad circulation. if that system than becomes a closed circulation and a low level circulation cenetr forms and winds rise to above 20kts ur will have a cyclone, td, and as conditions continue that system can continue to orginise. now shear, changing wind speed and dirrection at different levels, blow those storms away from the generating force and can not grow high into the atmosphere hindering the growth and orginisation of the area of disturbed weather

yeah,cause as u getetr stronger storms from the warms water u get stronger lift hence lower pressure which generates the wind. the wind is faster as the pressure drops in response to the close pressure gradient as u get close to the cenetr. now shear inhibits this lift and u can not get a lower pressure so wins will not increase. thats why when u get a stronger cyclone it grows into the higher level of the atmosphere as those t-storms and convection grown the storm grows in hieght generating a strmger lift and lower pressure, so u get faster winds, a sheared system can only generate so much lift so it can not get a lower pressure and get stronger.
I found that to be such an easy to understand description that I actually saved it!
very interesting Coconut
Proof that October Hurricanes can be deadly:

Wow! That is a fabulous picture.
me too missy....it sucked not having this site for a couple days. I thought weaterwannabe hacked the site to death or something ( I called my road runner tech and found the problem was the DNS (like a hopper between sites) She said it was country wide and some had a problem others not and sorry about your luck....I know that must make me geek...I just have found the NHC to be boring and conservative and this blog keeps me in real time...
Tammy would need a convection blow up in order to reform and I see no sign of that right now. That is also a cooler part of the Gulf that she is in. If we come out of blackout and there is a convection blow up then maybe, but she will start to move N and NE before too long bringing her back on land in the big bend area.
Storm, what is your take on the wave east of the Antillies?
Point taken Mr. coconut, but you have to admit that things around are a little dull without the usual crew....Anyway you are doing your best to entertain, thanks
Mitch was a bitch....and I beleive Tammy is forcing Yucastan away a bit...and the new blob in puerto could stop Yucastan.....we might a have a true mexican shootout!!!!

what a pic
lol buhdog
Notice in that pic how the SE is front free? Good thing or else instead of Central America...we would have been blasted with the 1st hit
Thanks for the description, Coconut.

So, what will it take for circulation to occur along the island wave? Favorable shear and low-level winds going the right ways to encourage lift and spin?
Zap
That wasn't my description - I wish I could take credit!

That was something lefty wrote awhile back that I saved b/c I found it helpful visualizing how a storm forms. This is definitely not my area of expertise.
acually i have a life and like i said its great wioth no bs missy
hi junkie yeah i am from cali were the sun always shins lol were is your bro leftyy
oh and cc what did you mean by being negibors lol dont get it
The historical map for Tammy says that Georges was a Category 5 at one point, while the archive for Georges says its maximum sustained winds were 155 mph, making it a Category 4.

Which should I believe?
:) Boldman: When I asked where everyone was from earlier I thought you wrote "CC" meaning Coconut Creek so I thought we were neighbors.
Maybe it's highest strenght vs. strength at landfall?
Look at how warm the water temps are in the Carribean. ;)
To much activity in one area could limit all from production. All fighting eachother for moisture, there is only so much out there.
155 is a cat 5
oh i did that to shorten your name lol so i did not have to type it all lol
But couldnt they come together and form a SUPERCANE, for a lack of better terms?
I don't think so, Coconut. Take a look at them.

Archive:



Historical Map:

Primez: on skeeters historical area it listed georges as a cat 4
155 is right under a Cat 5. 156 is the minimum for a Category 5.
Yea great pick prime!!! Thanks
That's too Funny, BM :)
-55 on the historical shows a brief bit as a cat 5, but the archive shows no points being a cat 5, cat 2 at landfall and well before
1 mile an hour is kind of irrelavant but true.
It does look like Tammy is still trying to renew along W. FL, but can it really hope to w/o a bit more distance from land? If the steering flows can push it back down I suppose it could help ignite the Yucastan cluster. It looks like the loop circulation is increasing at higher levels but not down low, though, so I imagine w/o more convection it will falter.

Please jump in and comment back -- I'm trying to learn!

Zap
Sorry Zap, I cant help ya, Im trying to learn as well
I suppose it's kind of like what Max Mayfield said about cat 4 vs. cat 5 being the difference b/w being hit by a semi vs. a freight train (i.e., you are squished either way).
although it is a mystery and according to the Skeeter history on Georges...

On 9/20/1998 at 6:00:00 AM it was listed as a cat 5

937 Pressure and 155 winds
I like that Coconut, and so true, it dosent matter.
Frankly, it is such a mess out there I am having trouble telling where one system starts and another one ends. Nothing appears to be independent of anything else. I suspect even the experts are having difficulties figuring out the potential interactions of tammy, yucastan, blob, baby blob, the monster that ate blob, his cousin.....

Link
Saw the LI comments earlier...I'm originally from Port Jeff :D and have been through several 'canes on Long Island. More so than here in Jax.
It is one big conspiricy from mother nature, all are going to merge and blow the South East US of the map with a big superstorm lol, Infared looks like a big Christmas tree of lights, when do we hang the star? and where?
yeah i know cc when you are really good at catting you kneed to know how to shorten things up lol
lol progressive. Could be the Japanese Mafia's conspiracy... that or the aliens.
Goodnight all! Time to catch the news. If our local weather guru, Brian Norcross has some earth shattering news I'll come back and share.
Ha Ha, lets hope not. Ready for November here, 3 scares and some interest in the atlantic, I am ready to relax a bit and enjoy some of the lately forgotten Florida Sun
so cane or should i say stormjunkie new name huh
A recommendation to those that may be going through a little tropical depression due to lack of posts on this blog.
.
.
Take this opportunity to look back into the recent past. Read the archives of Dr. Masters blog. Pick any one you'd like. We've been through an extraordinary season, and of course the pre-Katrina blogs are the most interesting. I personally recommend the blog entitled "New Orleans to Pensacola....." started by Dr. Masters on 8/27 at 11:25EDT. We'll never have another season like this...I hope. Go back and read that blog. Pay particular attention to the posts by MSY68. The IP address has been confirmed to come from you know who. Very sad that we spent most of this very important day helping this fictional person when so many real people needed our help. Believe what you want....but I guarantee you that if you read this blog start to finish it makes for great drama. And sadness.
wowo cosmic events that is the sadest event you posted yet lol
No, I am not stormjunkie, I am a new blogger.
oh ok because he kept bugging me about my new name wanted to make sure
Based on that IR loop it looks like ANYTHING that comes near Florida is gonna get sucked/pushed/grabbed into Florida. That is just a mess! Tammy and Stan guts all over the place...
hey cosmic you watch days of our lives
It is ok, I just singed up today, I have been watching since Hurricane Charley and thought it was time for me to interact and learn.
night guys cosmic ease up on the soap operas lol
GN Bold
Wow, Hey All I haven't been able to reach wunderground for over 36 hours, kept getting "host not found" error, so I thought the site was down.

Read on "slashdot" that a major internet provider was blocking connections from other providers, effectively breaking up the internet, so now I guess problem solved. Anyone else affected?

Last I was on this blog, embryonic un-named Tammy was approaching the Florida Coast, now her remnants are back in the Gulf. "Yucastan" (heh good one) is getting sheared, pieces of it cruisin' the jet up the FL peninusula, occasional heavy showers, not much wind.
Good night all, Work is almost over. Time to head to the house.
Actually anything that forms in the Atlantic is going to get ripped apart by shear, the ULL and Tammy outflow is creating some serious shear in the Eastern Carribian and Western Atlantic. Hold to the statement that to much in one area may prevent anything from forming.
244. dcw
Does anyone notice that the same conditions that created The Perfect Storm so many years ago are right now being re-created over the Caribbean?

Tropical system (Yucastan) + Low (Tammy remnant) + Cold Front -> Lots of death.
Guy funny Yucstan, I have trouble logging last night and tonight on my home computer but al ok at work interesting about the internet wars if it's not happening I can imagine it could.

-
your not alone I heard others mention trouble last nite and tonight

Sunny thoughtthere dcw thanks for livingup the party
247. dcw
You're welcome.
Progressive - Agreed, looks like a lull in activity coming up, unless Tammy, ULL, "Yucastan" complex ends up driving some hybrid system up the East Coast. Low chance the ULL in the mid-atlantic could eventually turn warm core or hybrid, days from now.

Getting near the end of the season, natually this blog will wind down. I agree with Cosmic but with different emphasis: Like how Dr. Jeff and even all the rank amateurs on this blog saw that Katrina was going to be a huge disaster days beforehand, and yet the Federal Government sat and watched until days after the worst before mounting any serious effort.
Around 8:30 this morning when I checked out Master's blog I saw a model of a storm right off the east coast of FL by Cape Canaveral, IF Yucastan makes into the atlantic around there could it form into storm then or is it destined to be torn apart by sheer and shot of the eastern seaboard as I suspect.
-
is there any chance Tammy remants will regenrate w/ the help of Yucastan and take another wipe at the se?
-
what say y'all
250. dcw
Guy, I do not like to hold political discussions here, but that comment was quite simply ignorant. It is NOT the Federal Government's JOB! The National Guard was ready to go, but they couldn't get in for two days after the storm because the governor wouldn't let them in! Yes, we got one right. I, you, and most of the rest here said "oh crap" at the moment we saw her moving southwest. I agree that the NHC fails sometimes, and that is why my site exists. Do not attempt to pin this on anyone, however, until you can out-forecast the NHC on some form of consistant basis.
Hey back after a long nap and some cuddle time. I got a response from Al Sandrik today that I am pretty proud of :)

Sir, thank you for your very detailed report! There is a lot of very good information here which we will use in the Storm Data report on Tammy. Your observations on storm tide are right in line with what we observed yesterday from the tidal gages at Fernandina Beach and Mayport (Saint Simons Island was out during the event). This type of detailed information is very, very useful to us!

Very Respectfully,
Al Sandrik
For what it's worth, despite all the complaints about leftyy, he at least kept the blog centered around weather.
I think remnants of Tammy have little chance alone but it adds some energy and lots of moisture to the complex ULL and Yucatan system. Once the trough gets further east this could consolidate into a strong nor'easter type storm, maybe with hybrid characteristics.
Cosmic, you said that the IP address was confirmed to come from you know who. Who are you talking about? Stormtop?
The NHC not only does a good and steadily improving job, they readily admit areas of uncertainty and specify avg errors.

I think the NHC did superbly, and the Coast Guard even better. Can you imagine the predictions and response if the NHC was run by the IRS?

Sometimes bad stuff happens. Nobody's fault. Take care of you and yours, and help others where you can.

Zap
Personal opinion on Yucastan is that it will stay south of Cuba and retire into the south easten Caribbian, remmanents of Tammy appear to be making a shift to the east a bit, have to see the morning for a trend but think it will be a non player. Have to look at invest rising above 10N, convection forming as the wave rises above 10N early trends take it north, if it rides the south east of the ULL, pretty much the last hope to stay on west to west northwest coarse, it will get sheared apart, ???? for the rest of the season, till it dies down a bit I just don't see it.
257. dcw
NHC in the IRS -

Since a storm is coming, fill out evacuation form 1892.
Since there is a storm surge, fill out a Water Damage from A Landfalling Tropical System form.
Since your house is totaled, fill out a Property Tax Exemption form.

:D
I don't see anything getting named in the next 3 days.
dcw - That argument was hashed, rehashed and refried many times in the post-Katrina blogs. Just to corect the record:

"In October 2001, Mark Fischetti, a contributing editor to Scientific American, wrote in the magazine: "New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. If a big slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under 20 feet of water. Scientists at Louisiana State University, who have modelled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers, predict that more than 100,000 people could die." The Corps, Fischetti reported, has a plan to transform the "terminally ill city dependent on non-stop pumping to keep it alive," but nobody wanted to fund the work. Where would the money come from?"

"The U.S. Congress and other sources had allocated $480 million to the Corps to shore up the levees and build pumping stations. Before the work could be completed, the government sought to cut the funds both to the Corps and to the regional authorities. The cuts are such, Naomi noted, that his team could do no more than pay salaries. During the discussion about the cuts, the Houston Chronicle reported (December 1, 2001) that FEMA had "ranked the potential damage to New Orleans as among the three likeliest, most catastrophic disasters facing the country". The other two were an earthquake in San Francisco and a terror attack on New York City."

"By 2003, the federal government had essentially frozen any projects to save New Orleans from an inevitable hurricane and storm surge. The government's tax cuts and war on Iraq sucked up any funds needed for domestic infrastructure projects. Walter Maestri, emergency management chief for Jefferson Parish, told The Times-Picayune (June 8, 2004): "It appears that the money has been moved in the President's budget to handle homeland security and the war in Iraq, and I suppose that's the price we pay. Nobody, locally, is happy that the levees can't be finished, and we are doing everything we can to make the case that this is a security issue for us. Ten days later, Naomi told the same paper, "The system is in great shape, but the levees are sinking. Everything is sinking, and if we don't get the money fast enough to raise them, then we can't stay ahead of the settlement. The problem that we have isn't that the levee is low, but that the federal funds have dried up so that we can't raise them." The situation deteriorated to such an extent that Louisiana's Governor threatened to sue the federal government."

"The main agency to deal with relief efforts after a natural disaster is FEMA. Created in 1979, FEMA merged a host of governmental agencies that had emerged since the 1930s to confront one disaster after another. With the formation of the Department of Homeland Security in the aftermath of 9/11, many federal agencies found their work absorbed by the logic of the war on terrorism. FEMA became part of the Department, and its budget priorities moved from response to earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and other natural disasters to response to terror attacks. George Haddow, a former FEMA deputy chief of staff, told Miami Herald (September 3): "There are no emergency managers at any level in the Department of Homeland Security. It's all law enforcement."

"At 4-13 p.m. on August 28, the National Weather Service station in New Orleans provided a chilling forecast of what was to come. The scientists looked at the size of the hurricane and provided this analysis: "Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer. At least one half of well constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail leaving homes severely damaged or destroyed. The majority of industrial buildings will become non-functional. Partial to complete wall and roof failures is expected. All wood-framed, low-rising apartment buildings will sustain major damage, including some wall and roof failure. High-rise office and apartment buildings will sway dangerously... a few to the point of total collapse. All windows will blow out. Airborne debris will be widespread. Power outages will last for weeks as most power poles will be down and transformers destroyed. Water shortages will make human suffering incredible by modern standards." The National Weather Service warned, "Preparations [for evacuations and relief] should be rushed to completion."

On August 29, Katrina made landfall near Buras, Louisiana. Before the day was over, the storm had smashed into New Orleans. By nightfall it appeared that the worst had passed, and that the storm had not truly devastated the city. Those who could leave the city had left following a mandatory evacuation order, but many remained trapped. On August 30, a massive storm surge overwhelmed the ancient levees and began to flood the city. The Gulf of Mexico flowed down Canal Street, and those who had to remain in the city rushed towards the Superdome (the sport's stadium) and the Convention Centre. Tens of thousands of people waited for governmental help, trapped as they were in these fragile islands with minimal water and food, and with the winds on high again. Fear and exhaustion created mayhem inside these badly equipped shelters."

The Departmentof Honeland Securty's July 2005 review dismantled FEMA's Emergency Preparedness and Response Directorate. In the new dispensation, the Department of Homeland Security centralised power. In the event that the government recognises "that a catastrophic incident condition exists," the Department's own protocol insists, "the Secretary of Homeland Security immediately designates the event an Incident of National Significance and begins, potentially in advance of a formal presidential disaster declaration, implementation of the National Response Plan." No such thing happened. The storm struck, the levees overflowed, and the government watched the television coverage."

"The Mayor of New Orleans and the Governor of Louisiana called for federal assistance as the water level rose and the people remained in the city. On August 31, Senator Mary Landrieu told the press that when she asked for federal help, "I started to sense they were thinking I was a little overwrought, that maybe I was exaggerating a little bit." The next day, Mayor Rick Nagin fulminated, "They're thinking small, man. And this is a major, major, major deal." The local administration tried to do what it could, given the paucity of resources, as the federal government and its agencies congratulated each other but produced nothing.
Aaron Broussard, president of Jefferson Parish (a town within Greater New Orleans), put it bluntly on the National Broadcasting Corporation's (NBC) "Meet the Press". He said: "We have been abandoned by our own country. Hurricane Katrina will go down in history as one of the worst storms ever to hit an American coast, but the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina will go down as one of the worst abandonments of Americans on American soil ever in U.S. history. Bureaucracy has committed murder here in the greater New Orleans area."

When the levees broke, President Bush said, "I don't think anyone anticipated the breach of the levees." The Times-Picayune, New Orleans' main newspaper, now being printed outside the city, quickly retaliated, "No one can say they didn't see it coming. Now in the wake of one of the worst storms ever, serious questions are being asked about the lack of preparation."
I have a question about DBZ values reported on radar--is there a site or table that shows how DBZ values correspond with rainfall rates? Right now, a good band of showers is approaching that should train over us with DBZ values of 35-45 for quite a while.
My Dad is Dutch (from Holland, which is 80% reclaimed coastal delta). Their capital is 50% below tide level.

He came to America and from an early age I recall him saying "build your house on a hill". Our house overlooked a man-made lake, and was well above the top of the dam.

Apparently even some people who live below sea level see the wisdom of living otherwise!

Zap
Zap - And yet, from all accounts, Holland is a beautiful country, with higher median income, better education, better health care, and less poverty than the U.S.

Still, I agree wtih your Dad, I would rather build on a hill. It's just that hills are a little scarce in Florida ;-)
And in Holland.

Everybody thinks of windmills when they hear "Holland". Know why the windmills were there?

Zap
Have to travel north of Orlando to find a hill in these parts, I really miss having a basement lol.
StSimons - I was concerned about you during the storm, but I couldn't reach wundeground becasue of internet problems. I hope you came through with no injury or property damage.

Accuweather has a table of Radar DBZ values vs. rainfall rates. The link is here: Link
Zap - Water pumps, I always thought. Correct?
Windmills powered pumps, since the 1500's.

I think today Holland has 40000 pumps. The biggest are 1000hp+ and lift 1000's of tons of water per min.

The levees and pumps are redundant, and sluice gates make most areas self-draining at low tide.

In New Orleans the Miss River has the highest canal -- above the lake and much of the city. Seems inherently problematic!
Zap
Note: if the city, state, and Nat'l politicians all lived in the 9th ward, it wouldn't flood!
Zap
Progressive - When I lived in Ohio, we lived at the bottom of a hill. We had the lowest basement in the neighborhood. Even though we had a good sub-pump, the damn basement must have flooded like 100 times when I was a kid. We were always cleaning out the muddy mess afterwards.

Still, nice to have when the occasional tornado threatened.
yeah that is not a good situation, I was born and raised in South Bend, IN on the south side above the hill from the river so no flooding, just loved the extra space. Storage is a premium here, best business to start here in south fla. Low maintenence and collect money, just have to find the land at a somewhat reasonable price.
Where is StSimons located??
My bro is a civil engr. He says you only need to know three things:

Water runs downhill
Retaining walls don't
You can't push a rope

With that morsel of Okie wisdom dispensed, I'm off to bed.
Nite all!
Zap
At 4:28 AM GMT on October 07, 2005, Zaphod wrote:
Note: if the city, state, and Nat'l politicians all lived in the 9th ward, it wouldn't flood!

The Rita re-breach was especially shocking and revealing. By then, they had plenty of time to fill the whole canal if they has chosen to do so. That N.O. was going to be on the right side of Rita and experience long-fetch SE winds and surge was foreseeable well ahead of time.

Almost seems like they wanted to flood those poor people out for good, and they may well have succeeded.

guygee--it was a dark and stormy night, lol. There was not a lot of property damage on St. Simons, but in Brunswick a trailer park was flooded and 40 trailers became uninhabitable. Max winds officially were sustained 33 gust 46, but I measured a gust of 52 mph on the beach. I went on two trips to the beach. One at around 7:45-8:10 p.m. The rain was blinding, never seen rain more intense, although I have seen it AS intense during thunderstorms. It was very fine, not big drops like you see in a thunderstorm. Visibility was about 1/4 mile , with the driving rain and the sea spray. Tide was about 1/2 foot above high tide, (high at 10:17 pm with a tidal range of 7 1/2 feet that day) and the waves, high as they were, were not the highest I have seen and not very spectacular. My second trip was at 10 p.m. and I saw the high tide. The tide was about 3 to 3 1/2 feet above normal high tide, and about 18" below what would have started to cause serious problems in the beach neighborhoods. At the time a 'dry slot' was covering the southern half of St Simons and a rain band was covering the northern half with a sharp demarcation, driving through it again 30 mins later the boundary had not shifted 100 yards. The waves were spectacular! Higher than in Frances or Jeanne last year, although the surge from Jeanne (which was 3 1/2 feet) was higher because the astronomical high tide was higher when Jeanne hit to the south) The waves are confirmed by our closest buoy which showed that the wave height had increased from 9.5 feet to 12.1 feet between 8 and 10 p.m. The breaking waves crashed into billows of spray that were 10-15 feet high over the pier, which was quite a rush to walk on!

Lots of small branches down, but not a lot of large ones. Only saw one big tree go down on the island that I know of.

Our house is on a ridge about 16 feet above sea level and is normally very well drained, but the yard is 'weeping' water out down the driveway and is very soft and squishy. I had to go pick up the small branches and twigs all over the yard because Mike is 10 inches taller and 101 lb heavier than I am. When he stepped in the lawn, he promptly sank, LOL.
St Simons Island is a barrier island about 35 miles north of the GA/FL border. Here is a link. http://www.sherpaguides.com/georgia/coast/southern_coast/st_simons_island.html
Went out at midnight in the rain and we have had 0.62" rain for Oct 6, and 17.60" rain since Oct 1.
Can't go to bed without parlaying that one!

I believe it was a founding father who said, "do not require conspiracy where human ignorance will suffice."

It might superficially SEEM like any idiot could have foreseen the disaster, but it is irresponsible to seriously voice it as a possibility.

This is a case where an overly centralized and typically inefficient set of fed agencies are coupled with a relatively poor, inefficient, and ineffective local system. There is plenty of blame to go around without inventing conspiracies.

You all know your experience with greedy or corrupt city councilors, inept public agencies, turd-gilding programs, and election-focused representatives. Why do you think they'll somehow become apt, intelligent, selfless, and capable during a crisis.

Why do you think they'll become saintly stewards of $200B in rebuilding funds?

OK, now I'm REALLY going to bed!

Zap
yeaH ST. its just started raining here where i live. we will get 6+ inches in the next 24=36 hrs. flood watched up every where lol. is it still raining where u are aND IS IT RAINING HARD OR LIGHT
We are getting heavy showers now (check wunderground radar for zip 31522 and zoom on us by clicking on the circle with the plus sign in it) The rain should soon end--for now.
Heavy rain has just ended--some light rain outside.
StSimons - Very glad to hear you came through OK. Sounds like "just enough" excitement, without being "too much".

Read up a little on your town, "quaint, beautiful, peaceful" were some of the descriptions on the touristy sites. Good to hear that hardly any trees went down.

Luckily you didn't lose your power, as that sure alters modern-day life. Loss of hot water, air conditioning and regrigeration is the first shock, then I start getting "internet withdrawal symptoms" within 24 hours.

Well, I had a rough week, and I don't think I'll make it past the eclipse, so I will bid you all "good night". Until next time...
OK Zap - I agree that stupidity is the more likely explanation, but I don't totally rule out "non-benign neglect", which is a form of malice with forethought.

With that said, g'night all.
Lefty...Where have you been???? Been lookin for ya all nite !!! It's been raining here today in TN..Just enough to make you mad though...just a drizzly kinda day...turned off cool though..I dont think we got out of the mid 70's....it was like 90 yesterday...
Hey St.Simons, I answered your question in Steve's blog...not to be a know it all but just b/c I had the same question before. Hope you understand buddy!

Anyhow might as well check out this page for dBZ translation, scroll to bottom.
and guygee, I've also just realized that you answered his question as well.

Anyway good night wunderbloggers, we'll see what tomorrow holds for us!
What's up Lefty?

I'll be home from work in a bit if your up for some Halo.
YEAH I BE HERE
Bout 3:20. See ya then.
imight still be up lol
SLAYER

Gained the Lead.
Lost the Lead.
Tied the Leader. **Double kill**!

Yah I'm still here. I'll have to play you guys some time, or ratherwhoop you guys! ;)
will any time u wanna play just say the word
Hey fellows , here briefly...
guygee, .. Thanks for publishing that article Katrina/NO - that's the truth of the situation....we begged the feds for 15 point whatever billion to rebuild our coastline and fortify the levee systems in S LA...now what will it cost? Finally offered half billion last year, essentially another token/bandaid. - way too late....and I'm sure we'll be forgotten soon, again....

St Simons - excellent 1st hand reporting on effects from TS Tammy....good, accurate data...appreciate your reports...
Of course my friend. I don't own an x-box because all of my friends do, if that makes any sense.

I usually play under DoplhinStriker and StinkyPinkyOK (don't ask).

What's your XBLive name? Oh BTW what's your real name, I might as well refer to you by that, as we refer to eachother so often. My real name is in fact William.

To interject some weather into the convo, looks like you're also soon going to receive the rains we're about to get over the next coupld of days. The tropics on their way Virginia for sure.
yes its getting nasty now.raining hard

mu name is mike but i also go by lefty. even my wife calls me lefty

screen name on xbox LEFLY420

yes its an l not a t. i messwed it up lol
Mike it is...

I'll def look you up next time I'm on XBL. In the meantime I will surely see you on here tomorrow.

Night bro.
will i am pretty good. i ma level 29 right now but been as high as 32 and thats probly to low. i play alot by myself or with my bros who are not as good as me so i will get 20+ kills and lose lol. stormjunkie will tell you. i get 15 kills every game atleast. my favorite weapon is the plasma pistol and anything else combo lol. i love the plasma pistol melle as well. call it the donkey punch lol
That's a fair warning...but I will warn you as well!

I am headshot master, my fav is Covenant Carbine, then BR. I will snipe you point blank if ya get too near! Muahaha.

Can't wait for Halo on xbox360. What can I say, I plan to play these games, if not intermittently, for the rest of my life...

will i get my 4yr old to play with me sometimes. she isn;t any good but she does beat people fown. funny as hell and she has her own headset lol. she be laughing at people and i ma like u just got beat down by a 4yr old lol
so what are your thoughts on the disturbance that could become a storm in the atlantic east of the antilles....could there be a threat in 7 to 10 days
64 doubt it. it will get pulled north in response to the trof and will likley not be able to form above a ts if it does form. shear is going to be a big problem for that system in 72 hours so it will have a short time to form befor it will get torn apart
While some people think they are insulting me, to hear a four-year-old beat me down would actually be insulting. I will be on the lookout for her when we play...I'm not gonna let that happen!

Here's to beating the '33 Record without the loss of any more lives!!

Gnight man, we're not so diff after all.
lol night will
X-Box? Ok guys that doesn't sound like storm forecasting to me...LOL

Whassup Lefty, StormJunkie, WillJax, no he left..too late/too slow for...DialupImpairedDoc. Man we needed a break ....

You know, I'm certain E Coast is gonna get a solid N'oreaster 'cane out sometime before this is over...friend told me Farmer's Almanac predicts Gulf Coast system mid to 3rd wk. Oct. And then there's the Carribean thru Nov.. 4th letter of Greek alphabet.......

Aw what the Hell, I'm on a Mac and couldn't play any way....Later...
sj u home yet lol
Home.

WillJax you in too?

What is your screenname?
meet u on
Never mind saw it down below, but I assume it is DolphinStriker
All is quiet on the TS/TD front (with all of the excitement along the east coast):

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
309. dcw
These upper-level winds are getting on my nerves.
310. dcw
*jawdrop*

LOOK AT THE IR!

Tammy reforming!
she's baaaaaaaaack...

- which IR are you looking at?
Lefty, what are the chances of seeing a late October hurricane like Mitch again with water temps this high in the Carribean?
Hey primez, I think Lefty is off gaming.

Hurricanes are all about available energy, and as you point out water temps are very high so the energy is there. Just a question of whether other factors come together to allow hurricane formation. just now they're not conducive, but as we've seen in this unusual season that can change very quickly.
quick post befor i head to bed. models all form a cyclone sw of bernuda in 3 days. thsi cyclone track is every where but looks like a possible us threat. possibly the carolinas but to early to say. bevelive this cyclone forms from the wave near the lesser antilles.

also updat on va weather steady to heavy rain all night. .5 inches so far but forcasyedto pick 6 onches thru tomm. oh what fun lol. will knowmore woth the next set of model runs

good night all
Mith Debunking.

Tammy does not look good on IR. The circ is still there, but very little convection. SHe needs convection in order to reform.

Lefty is done gamming and so am I.

THe carib temps will go down a little after all of this cloud cover and rain although I would not rule out more storms. The temp is still well high enoguh to support canes.

Goodnight all.

StormJunkie,

You and Lefty play games as in Role Playing Games or just gaming period?
317. wxfan
All the models are showing TC development in the next few days in the Southern Bahamas. SSTs are high and ws is forecast to become light. That could be a big storm....
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Check out Tammy in the Gulf. Little tiny convection and spin :D coming right back over us in N FL. The blob below Cuba is blowing up nicely again too.

B
Holland is a gorgeous country. These folks know how to
live below sea (or "zee") level. Plus they seemingly
tolerate my Dutch....

Interesting how Tammy lower-level vortex decoupled from its upper-level support and ended up back in the Gulf, noticed her spinning there last night. Now nicely phased with former Gulf ULL and "Tammy-Yucastan" ULH to the north and east. That ULH is huge, although very longitudinal off the the East Coast, flow extends all the way to north of Lesser Antilles. All the above, combined with approaching trough, looks like a nice setup for good old fashioned nor'easter or hybrid storm blowing up the East Coast.

Once that gets out of the way, the ULL/Tropical wave interacting north and east of Lesser Antilles could be the next player. I guess that is the system the models are showing over the Bahamas later this week.

What a strange pattern this year! All of these Bahama systems, and not one Cape Verde storm making it across the Atlantic.
Morning everyone! Tammy is trying to spin right below me. Agggghhhh!
gbreezegirl,

Tammy's trying to spin below you.. tell her to stop (LOL)
jimmiek,

I like to go to Holland one day (and not for the usual reasons.. okay make I will stop in the local "coffee" house). How was it (or is it if you still there)?
Should be about time for Dr. Masters to update huh?
gbreezegirl - I think you'll see her heading ENE then cross near Panama City/Big Bend and head more NE from there. I'm expecting her to help pull a dryline "front" across FL. Peninsula today, and hope to see some real sun first time in days by this afternoon.

If Tammy swirl drifts very far south then I would be a bit more worried, but that seems very low probability.
gbreezegirl,

Yea but the way this season has been I wouldn't be suprised if the good Doctor hasn't taken a long weekend to pound a few back.. I know I would be doing if I was in his shoes during this hurricane season..
Well ENE would be a welcome relief. Would like to see the sunshine this weekend! Have relatives coming tonight.
What is going on with Stan Jr. this morning?
oriondarkwood "pound a few back". Is that as in chugging a few brews, or is that the harder stuff?
Actual Stan Jr. seems to have sheared out into the Gulf Upper Low, but there is still some convection and somethin trying to form south of Cuba. Whatver forms there, I am guessing it is too late to affect the U.S.
morning all.....
guygee,

I don't know what the Doctor drinks, but me. I rarely drink beer. I am a scotch and whiskey man along with rum and wine (not mixed together)
anything that spins up south of cuba would more than likely head to the east or ENE
orion - Whooee, that is the hard stuff. Many years ago when I lived in Houston I was befriended by a couple that was in the process of drinking up their inheritence. They drank scotch morning, noon and night, the good stuff. They also insisted I join them, and I actually developed a taste for it, although it took me awhile.

Many years later, after "teetotaling" for awhile, I'm up for an occasional social beer or two, and I even still hanker for Tequila, sometimes, when the Moon is full. But at my age, those days of playing cards and passing around the bottle of Jack are long gone...
Morning all, I can see the sun!! Was duck weather this morning.
New post!
ugh...please don't use the "T" word (tequila) around here. Some of us--like me, right now, for instance--get the immediate "warm spits" and begin to feel ill. :D

"How about a greasy, pork sandwich served in a dirty ashtray..."
NEW BLOG UP.
rxse7en - LOL! I know the feeling, and try the "hair of the dog" the next morning by chugging the leftover 3/4 full beer can full of cig butts.
guygee,

Read your email
341. Ezzz
Well looks like the American Hurricane Season is winding up maybe 2 or 3 more Tropical Storms or stronger to form. America needs another 3 tropical storms/hurricanes to form in the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico and they will have to name the third hurricane using the Greek Alphabet names for the Hurricane names (Alpha, Theta, Omega etc.). THE AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE (or Hurricane for you Americans) SEASON STARTS ON THE 1ST OF NOVEMBER!!! :D