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"Not dead yet", says East Coast disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:57 PM GMT on August 18, 2006

The persistent low pressure system 100 miles east-northeast of Jacksonville Florida refuses to die, despite my attempts to declare it dead last night. Wind shear from a protuberance of the jet stream is now a very hefty 40-50 knots, but the system has retained its circulation and still has some heavy thunderstorm activity firing up on its south side. Wind speeds as noted in a QuikSCAT satellite pass at 7:32am EDT this morning show that the strongest winds remain near 25 mph. This system is definitely an oddity--it refused to develop Wednesday when conditions appeared quite favorable with low wind shear, and now refuses to die under extremely hostile wind shear. The high shear is forecast to remain or increase today, and this system has little hope of gaining tropical depression status before it moves ashore into northern Florida and/or Georgia tonight. These areas can expect some spotty heavy rains from the storm.


Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Tropical wave off of Africa
A strong tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa Thursday, near 7N 16W. The QuikSCAT pass from 3:17pm EDT yesterday revealed winds of up to 60 mph to the west of the center, but the thunderstorm activity has since quieted down. We don't have a recent QuikSCAT pass to evaluate the current winds. Visible satellite animations from this morning show good rotation, and this disturbance does have some potential for develoment a few days from now. SSTs are a bit cool at 27C (81F), but wind shear has declined from 20 knots last night to about 10 knots today. The past three days worth of GFS model runs have been developing this system into a hurricane that threatens the Lesser Antilles about seven days from now. None of the other models develop the system.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Andy if its a catastropic event prepare for 14 days it will be better to those you are deploying to help.
1003. AndyN
Hey we have been on 9 deployments...we have this down to a science....Ready to go, all packed and prepared in about 6 hours
I will keep that in mind and hope we dont need it anywhere.lol
jphurricane2006 hey send me a copy of that DVD for me i want one
Andy were you at the joint MS AL conference a few weeks ago?
1007. AndyN
The only good part about deployments is: No stress from the office!! No one can call you...LOL
rats!
1010. AndyN
Negative...But I can tell you this....We were driving on I 59 on September 3rd and I remember the sheriff of Forrest Ms getting on the AM radio station and asking anyone that could here him call the MEMA and tell them they need Ice and Water...It was a sad situation.....
It is strange how the blob 100 miles east of Jacksonville has maintained its identity and refused to move onshore. Is the high shear expected to continue a long time, or will the shear weaken this weekend, and allow it to (maybe) organize further?
I was the quest speaker on 2 panels. EMAC and Evacuation I am the EMA director for Jackson County,MS Forrest was not as bad as they thought.
Thanks guys!
1014. AndyN
whatever happened to the sheriff the feds were trying to prosecute for getting the ice from camp shelby?
MEMA managed to come out smelling like a rose but they really had serious problems
AndyN, did you say that you can buy MREs at Sams?
1017. AndyN
I remember the awesome site of all the trees down along the interstate and powerlines laying across it....
He got indited but they will have a real problem in prosicution especially since MS law grants imunity while under a state of emergency declaration from the govenor.lol
I also would not be surprised if it was added as a TD in the season stats later in the season as a revision, the circulation is nice and tight. My guess is that they haven't declared it to be a depression because they expect it to be sheared into oblivion. However, because there are not a lot of tall thunderstorms around the center, it may be that the shear at the 200 mb level is just going over the top of the system and leaving the low-topped showers around it alone.
1020. AndyN
Pascmississippi: No, I said we have MRE's out the wazzooo and go to SAMS to buy groceries...Sorry if it was misunderstood..
Crab and Andy...Appreciate you guys sharing all this with all of us. This is a great place isn't it?
Pasc, you can get "Heater meals" at wal-mart they are a bit better lower in sodium just a shorter shelf life.
037
ABNT20 KNHC 190209
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
AND WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA...NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA









Those MREs are great. We lived off of them for a couple months after the hurricane.
1025. AndyN
Did MEMA ever get SoLincs in Jackson or do they work there?
StSimonsIslandGAGuy...The big problem with 93L is that I'm not convinced it is an actual "Tropical" entity. I'm thinking that is why it is being treated this way.
Heck yea Randrewl otherwise we would never have met and I would have been dummer than I am.lol You guys have helped me understand a bit more.lol I learn a little everyday it restores the brain cells I burn up getting over a bad day.LOL
Thanks sandcrab39565, I would like to keep some on hand. It did not take too long after Katrina to get military MREs, but it would be nice to have them before hand.
Does anyone see the bulg in the ITCZ near the islands?

That is caused by a large Upper Level High in the Southern Hemisphere, near Brazil.

One water vapor imagery, you can see it push the ITCZ north.

Upper level highs in the opposite hemisphere sometime enchances Equatorial Outflow.
Jackson County has had Southern Lincs a long time MEMA got them later so they could contact us.lol
1031. AndyN
I lived off those Starkist Tuna Lunchable things...The only good thing about Katrina was I lost weight
sandcrab39565...Thanks...I love hearing that struff man. Glad I could help.
1033. AndyN
We had to hold our SoLinc up to a phone so a sheriff in S Mississippi could ask MEMA for assistance
Another thing I am noticing in the radar loop is that the convection seems to be building a little bit along the south and east side of the center and wrapping a little more to the north along the east side. It is over the Gulf Stream, and it may be making an attempt at a nocturnal convective burst. Even so it will probably end up being nothing.
Highly unfavorable winds... how many times have we seen that this year.
My goodness, I would think we're in mid July, not mid August. All is boringly quiet. No beautiful tropical systems to awe over. Oh well, maybe in a week.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy ...Are you observing 93L on ground based radar? I don't see much out there on the Jax radar myself.
Um... guys... Take a careful look at visible loop for the ULL just west of Jamaica. Does it appear, to anyone else, that the lower level clouds are moving in a closed circulation? And what about the recent convection near the center?
The environment looks pretty good for it, if it decides to do something.
Rand, back on Saturday, our chief meteorologist for the Jax weather office said his guess was "some kind of ugly hybrid system", which is pretty much what it is, albeit very weak.
Bottom line folks were all in it together you never know who may be walking up to help no matter where the need. Share the knowledge and share the support. EMA is not an I thing its a we thing. I also say this "It begins local and ends local" but it may grow in the middle.lol
Rand, I was noticing the convection building a little bit on the east side of the center.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy...Yes Sir! I posted his discussion on this very board and I remember those exact words.
Another Pascagoula person on here huh?
Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 2:26 AM GMT on August 19, 2006.
Rand, I was noticing the convection building a little bit on the east side of the center.


It's been doing that off and on all day.
whats the shear forcast for the area this weekend?
Guys iam seeing very high wind shear across the caribbean right now.
Yes msuwxman...You?
Caffinehog...Check that on the WV loop
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
927 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR 30.5N/80W DRIFTING WEST THIS EVENING WITH
STILL SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA INTO NRN LAKE
COUNTY. AIRMASS ACROSS SEMINOLE/ORANGE/LAKE COUNTY NEVER REALLY GOT
WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION TODAY WITH CIRRUS CANOPY FROM CONVECTION
OFFSHORE SPREADING SW OVER THIS AREA MOST OF THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND ADDITIONAL PROPAGATION INTO THE NRN INTERIOR
PAST MIDNIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO LOW...MAINLY SHOWER CHANCES THERE.

18Z GFS PROBABLY HAS CORRECT TREND WITH A WESTWARD MOVEMENT TO SFC
LOW BUT WILL TREND SLOWER THAN GFS/NAM/RUC PROGS. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR A NOCTURNAL FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ON THE SRN EXTENSION FROM THE
SFC LOW ACROSS OUR NRN MARINE AREA OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS LATE
caffeine hog...been mentioning that all day, the convection seems to be working its way to the surface, contracting as the evening is progressing. The enviornment looks plenty favorable to me as well.
Ya gotta love the local NWS guys. They can say nocturnal....They can say anything they want. It's great!
wow no name storms this week well it evere end
Right now the Caribbean and the Gulf are closed for business due to high shear.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
943 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006
OFFSHORE THE LOW LEVEL TROPICAL VORTEX CONTINUES ABOUT 90 NM
OFFSHORE OF MAYPORT...WITH LITTLE SIGN OF MOVEMENT. STEERING FLOW IS
TO THE SSW BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS AND A TUTT
NE OF THE BAHAMAS.
Correct weatherguy03 i had just finished commenting on that a little up in the blog.
Incorrect statement weatherguy, the shear is significantly less in the carribean than the GOM. The ULL west of Jamaica is working it's way down to the surface and we're all in for an unpleasant suprise in about 3 days.
Right now there's between 30-50kts of windshear across the caribbean and the gulf does not look any better with 20-30kts of windshear also.
Incorrect Rapid...Link
right now there's between 20-30 knots of windshear across the caribbean.The GOM isnt looking any better with 20kts.
Actually not a good idea JP!..LOL J/K...
I lowered my windshear a tad.
See ya all tomorrow and will be talking plenty about the nasty disturbance in the NW carribean.
Me too JP!..LOL Boring night:)
you can see the clouds moving rapidly to the NE.
jphurricane2006...LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hi folks,

As over all surface pressures drop, does hi shear become less of a threat for systems trying to develop?
1070. GoofOff
Whatever is off the east coast of Florida isn't doing much. The winds onshore from Jacksonville to West Palm Beach are all below 7 mph.
Good nite everyone been a long day gonna check the eye lids until they have to stay open.lol
Bob, is this thing ever coming onshore?
The wedge created between the Upper level trough and low to the north (South of Cuba) and the Upper level high to the south (Honduras), is creating a tight gradient of winds in the upper levels. This is reflected on the wind shear map analysis, as a strip of 30-40knots of shear in the Caribbean Sea.
Yep....
Well I have been out today but looks like several models develop something near South America and send it straight north towards the gulf coast. I guess we shall see.
1076. AndyN
Lets all get on the wave train:Link
Not with that ULL there it wont.
hurricane23..Christy...what are you talking about and who are you saying it to?
ok so whats the general consensus on the carribean disturbance? I know "rapidintensification" thinks its going to turn into a cat 5 and kill us all, but what does everyone else think?
randrewl cant you see the ULL in the caribbean?Its adding to more unfavorable conditions across the caribbean.
Randrewl my comments were not towards you...I was talking to jupiter.
hurricane23...Yes I can see that Christy...you just blurt this stuff out and I don't know what you are referencing. No problem.
Randrewl, it may sit out there forever!! I am still waiting for my second rain shower of the day!!..LOL Better luck next time.
ULL'S Are everywere right now.
weatherguy03...Typical weather guy! Has no idea and only wants his lawn watered! I should know better!
The ULL is centered near the Cayman Islands, not forecast to move much, so very high wind shear in the NW Caribbean Sea for the upcoming days.
hey 03 is not right




this maps show you there is low shaer this about evere where
Atlantic shear (colors) and shear tendency:



Blue = 0-10 kts (low shear)
Green = 10-20 kts
Orange-white = >20 kts (high shear)

West Pacific (a tropical cyclone factory):



What the CPC says:

Several extended GFS runs develop a tropical system towards the end of the period that crosses the Atlantic from Africa, and suggest it could come close to the south Atlantic coast. It should be noted that we are heading into the climatologically most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season. SSTs are also above normal in many areas where low vertical shear is also present. A lack of enough moisture to support organized deep convection seems to be the main inhibiting factor at present.

Shear is NOT the main reason why nothing is developing... 93L WOULD have become a storm is it had not had to put up with dry air, which slowed its development for several days until shear killed it. That is the problem - they develop too slowly to take advantage of shear when it is low.
Taz, thats shear tendency. Look at the actually shear map I posted before.
Mstl...You want to live by those shear charts?
I have to disagree Michael. I think its been the ULLs and there imposing shear that has been the main factor. The reason why 93L didnt develop was because of two ULLs that were inhibiting its development. Yes, dry air was pulled down from that ULL.
Ummm... look VERY carefully at the shear tendency map - on the right it says..... Current shear... that is, well, the current shear. Compare them to the shear only maps (which are harder to read because they are not colored); you can read the colored maps at a glance if you know what the colors mean.
1096. GoofOff
Night all. I just looked at a blank wall and started to see blobs and convection so it is past time to go to sleep. A mind gone bad is a terrible thing to see, at least from the inside looking out.
That ULL out east of FL is due here in a couple days. This keeps my grass and 03's from getting watered. No shear charts are disputing that. So, 93L can sit and spin for a while longer if it wants.
Michael, I posted the shear maps before. I didnt make those up!..LOL
Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:03 PM AST on August 18, 2006.
ULL'S Are everywere right now.


There is only one significant ULL. The one NE of the Leeward Islands and Gulf is waning.
GoofOff..Good night.
This is the current shear...Link
456 dont forget the one near the Caymans, oh and also the one East of the Bahamas.
Shear map
Shear and shear tendency map
(compare the above maps, ignoring the shear tendency on the second map - they are the sae except one is colored and the other uses lines and numbers, which can be hard to read when they are resized downwards)
Another shear map (not the same as the above)
jphurricane2006...I don't honestly know. You probably have more info on that than I. We're still behind.
Hi Everbody,
So I was checking in just to see whats going on, and I have checked the NAM and GFL maps and it shows something is going to form...

So am I right in saying we will have something in the gulf by the end of next week???


Taco:0)
So whats your point Michael? Shear is high over most of the Gulf and the Caribbean right now.
jphurricane2006...Martin where I am.
St. Johns. We are high! I have the drought index posted in my blog.
I am just saying that the shear tendency maps do show the current shear, in addition to the shear tendency, which is why I use them (more information on one map). Beside, the shear in the East Atlantic is more important right now.
Yeah, JP...that's why I didn't want to look at the drought index. We're high also.
To me its easier to read the CIMSS maps. And they are more precise. But hey, its just my opinion.
I even made this before when this issue came up; if you compare them, they show the same amount of shear (this is outdated, but it shows what I mean):



Notice that the shear tendency maps use a different projection, which can make it harder to compare them (the shear only map is wider for the same area).
1116. IKE
Posted By: taco2me61 at 10:22 PM CDT on August 18, 2006.
Hi Everbody,
So I was checking in just to see whats going on, and I have checked the NAM and GFL maps and it shows something is going to form...

So am I right in saying we will have something in the gulf by the end of next week???


NAM has done a 180 on development in the western Caribbean...doesn't show it happening now.
weather456 as long as that huge ULL north of the islands remains in the vicinity Conditions in my opinion will remain unfavorable for tropical development.
But see, the CIMSS map is better because it gives you the direction of the shear and the exact amount. It shows the flow of the atmosphere better, which is very important.
Thanks Ike,

I was hoping I was wrong going to Deer Feild Beach Next week and just don't want to fly into a storm>>>


Taco:0)
The shear tendency maps show the exact amount as well - the scale is on the right and because I know that blue-black is 10 kts or less, I can just look at the map and see where there is low shear.
can anyone tell me if and when we can expect to track a storm of any size around the state of florida .
Well, I am suppose to take a bunch of kids to the beach tomorrow, so 93L will probably make a beeline for me and it will rain all day! That will be my luck!
JP...Exactly where I personally reside is way above whatever the county report might show. I'm up there in the 600 range myself. It's a varied and different geographical county.
Cool Michael. Its a matter of personal preference. Enjoy your map.
jphurricane2006...Right...Rains all around me. Not here.
By the way, here is the amount of rain needed to end drought across the U.S (I have other maps in my blog):



It shows that I am in the 6-9 inch range, but that is only averaged over the division; it is actually worse here Link.


DIE ALREADY! LOL
jphurricane2006 ...Too many ULL's and no tropical systems make for no rain!
Thel....What's up?
jphurricane2006...The "Thelmores" is here!
well Just wanted to check in Guys yall have a great night...


Taco:0)
93L is dead....been dead in my opinion.
Good everning everyone..
hi - JP. Are things slow tonight?
"Thel....What's up?"

awe notu much here..... had a log day at work, have to work this weekend as well...... cuts down on my swirl chasin time! LOL

didnt get much if any time today on the blog, and much to my amazement, 93L is still there....

looks like the shear may be a little lower in the direction 93L is heading..... this storm is getting about as annoying as ophelia did last year! LOL

nite all! :)
then why is 93L up on the navy site?
Well, Damn...I'm dissapointed Thel.
Has a tropical system ever made it the entire way across the Pacific?
I think it is official gone. They didnt run the 0Z(8PM) model runs on it. Its over.
I think this season has been the year of the SAL and the ULL'S moving back and forth eating up any potential tropical activity.might this continue?Maybe, maybe not but i still believe things are going to change to a more favorable environment in the next 2-3 weeks.
Evening Ally.
So that's it? This bit of nothing floating towards St. Augustine?
Hello Randrewl..
look at this composite loop....... really shows the shear taking place....

Nite Johnboy..... nite mary ellen..... nite jim bob..... good nite.....

wait..... its morning now! LOL

I ran away so very far away....




Taco:0)
There is just nothing gang working off the Panamanian coast. Whatever the models are trying to find could come from below Cuba. But right now the tracks I have seen are not there now.
1159. will40
JP apply directly to the forehead :-)
Here is a radar loop of a bow echo that passed to my north over the last few hours, a less severe version of one last month (the one last month hit me).
yawn night
So who ever heard of Larry the Cable guy and what is his real name?
how is the Afrian Wave holding up
OMG!! WHAT IS HEAD ON!?!? I saw it on TWC and nearly fell over laughing....

Head on... Apply directly to the forehead.
Head on... Apply directly to the forehead.
Head on... Apply directly to the forehead.

WTFF!!!! :P
Like is 93L going to die now or be rejuvenated in the Gulf? I hope not..I hate working late because it interferes with the quality time that I spend with you guys at night.. 0*-)
1167. will40
Daniel Lawrence Whitney
jphurricane2006...Boink...Not correct!
Git 'er done!!
will40...That's him and he is from West Palm Beach.
1173. AndyN
Hey MichaelSTL that was an impressive outflow boundary.
1174. will40
theres a story bout him in Wikipedia
I think this season has been the year of the SAL and the ULL'S moving back and forth eating up any potential tropical activity.might this continue?Maybe, maybe not but i still believe things are going to change to a more favorable environment in the next 2-3 weeks.

If we get to september 10 with no hurricanes i think the chances of this season being below normal will go up big time.the next 2-3 weeks will be interesting to see what happens with these numerous ULL'S. Adrian
headon is for headachs but my news people said it did not really work
The storm that hit me last month was even more impressive (the worst storm that I have even experienced).
like for sure JP...of wait, I forgot. I am not a valley girl but an Ally girl. lol
1179. will40
hiya Ally
1181. will40
ha ha she gots Grits and Maters and Taters
Hi Will, how are things in Emerald City?
will40...I met Dan when he was too young to get into the nightclubs and perform. I had to sneak him in. Known him since around 85.
Posted By: weatherhunter at 4:11 AM GMT on August 19, 2006.
headon is for headachs but my news people said it did not really work


Haha, thats a great marketing strategy... Their commercial will cause the dammage that their product fixes...
1185. will40
They pretty good Ally how is Bama?
JP, I am sure that your GRITS is doing well. Tell her that I said hello.

Will, do you know about GRITS?
1187. will40
i love his accent Randrewl lol
Bama is fine. Rather warm I might add.
1189. will40
ummmmmmm well i know about the kind you eat lmao
will40...I still have a bunch of his early tapes around here. Been threatening to release a "Bootleg CD" but he ain't having any of that.
1191. will40
lol Randrewl he reminds me of us rednecks around here
1192. will40
and yes im a redneck my bathroom caught fire but i got it put out fore it got to da house
When I was still in radio will40 I pushed old Dan hard. I used to air his stuff several times a month.
Funneee...Will.

Girls Raised In The South - GRITS!

and you thought..not going there!!! lol
1195. will40
ahhhhh kewl Randrewl
1196. will40
omg they gonna flag my post LMAOOOOOOOOOO Ally
I've been to larry's truck store in sanford. heck I lived 10 minutes from it. only about 20 minutes from sanford now.

"what is this, russia"......

I heard him on DIZ (I think it was WDIZ.. or WJRR) all the time in the morning He was hilarious. Before he became famous I always thought he was in his 50's.

man that was some funny shi
Occasionally I hear from him....I just remember his early years as a bell hop at a WPB hotel and trying to break into comedy. I helped him a lot cause he was just a funny young guy!
1200. will40
Well Randrewl mebbe you helped put him where he has come now
Randrewl, maybe you can invite Dan to join us here one evening..he might even p/u some new material.
AllyBama...He would most likely get a kick out of this place. All his material is stolen anyway! LOL!
1204. will40
so Randrewl you was DJ in WPB? i used to work down there well close to there i worked in Boynton
Will....I was at KGR...now the Gater!
by the way, O-Rock is doing really good. I haven't listened to radio in years and they are off the wall. I think they got thrown off the air for a while. my fiancee' always listens to it driving to work. they're trying to get the rainbow flag back from the gays, They say they have 15,000,000 signatures (sp?) I find that almost impossible to believe but I suppose it's true.

I wish 93L would just become a minimal storm. oh well.
Yea..I get a lot of inspiration out of this site myself! lol
1208. will40
Randrewl i not gonna touch that part about stolen in here if you know what i mean lol
Sorry to interrupt all the OT chatter, but when is the last time anyone can remember all this disorganized garbage in the Western Atlantic? Just watching it all on the WV loop gives me motion sickness.
SavannahStorm...Don't I agree. Very disrupted mess isn't it?
I know Carrot Top also. We had to run him off one night for impersonating Gallagher!
1214. will40
did you sit close enuf that you had to wear the plastic JP lol?
jphurricane2006...I've met him. Real nice person. So is George Carlin. He treated me really nice and invited us up to sit on stage while he performed.
JP - if you like to catch candy, then you need to go to a Mardi Gras parade..here is Mobile they grow MOON PIES!!! lol
1219. will40
good cause if i remember correctly didnt he squash watermellons with a bigggggggggg hammer?
jphurricane2006...Missed Sam Kennison...he was too whacked to perform. Then he died!
1222. will40
lol@Moonpies
1225. will40
lolololololol rollin in da floor here
poor little ol' me..I never went to see comedians..I went to hear the music!!! lol

1229. will40
awwwwwwwwww but you did go to Mardi Gras parade Ally
1230. AndyN
I'm with ya hurricane 23... Are the westerlies still forecast to change back to the easterlies and the ITCZ is very active...Alot of convection in the caribean....
LA NINA CAUSES MORE HURRICANES ... NOT!

or at least what it says by this dude

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_10072.html?from=hurricane_welcome
Yes I have been to parades and ridden on floats as a masker. Awesome rush!

Oh, and yes I have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express...lol
1235. AndyN
Blobby? xplain lucy...(it's late)
1237. will40
doesnt the ITCZ split sometimes and part of it on north and part on south side of equator?
AllyBama...I got thrown into the comedy world because of my job. Usually I went for the music also. I've been lucky to know and observe some of the best comedic talents. Usually they just stole my material!
Andy right now there's strong shear across the caribbean....This wave about to exit africa is showing a very nice envelope to it and is much larger then the previous wave. The GFS and Nogaps are picking up on this wave.
1241. AndyN
Will40: Here you go...It is either in the N Hemisphere or S Hemisphere:Link
1242. AndyN
Can you give me those links? Thx
1243. will40
ty AndyN
This thing below the 10 Latitude? That's what is going to develop?


1246. AndyN
He is talking about the one above 10
The only entity above 10 has not emerged.
lol..I am sure that they did! It is healthy to laugh..makes you live longer..just like you and me! lol
AndyN here is the GFS SEE HERE

And here is the NOGAPS SEE HERE




Take me away to Margaritaville!
where ist thatzxcvd...salt!
wastin' away in Margaritaville..
looking for my lost shaker of salt..
some people say that there's a woman to blame (Debby?)..
but I know..it's my own d*#! fault.. lol

just why does tequila make you do strange things?
1261. will40
Ni Ni Lady and Gentlemen i enjoyed the laughter :-)
Has anybody been to Margaritaville in Myrtle Beach? That big blender is pretty neat..but watching the hurricane spinning is another story if you have too much TEQUILA!!!..

kind of makes me want to dance..
yo' Will..tee time is at 7:50..be there..good night...
I have no idea.
Tequila DOES make her clothes fall off..kind of strange how that happens?!? lol
ditto - Randrewl! lol
JP...Ya gotta work on those jokes. I almost missed that one.
JP - have you been watching the spinners too much tonight?
Jp is Thel in disguise tonight...chasing swirls!
Thel has progressed nicely in his artistic swirl chasing I will admit! No....No...I've been here too long!!
Ah..is this subject matter weather related? lol

are we fixing to see some more satellite imagery?
Western Atlantic mess!!!

one more fix, just a little bit
of that heaven I found crawling in the sun
sitting, waiting, calling me
to indulge in this game that's gonna set me free
I'm listening to CSN Wooden ships right now.
Tks Randrewl..I needed that! lol

Isn't the blob on the west side of FL near your house?
Naw...I'm on the east coast. The invisible coast!
Ya'll are laughing so loud that I can't hear my music! lol
With you on the East, JP in the middle and me on the Gulf..who gets the first storm? Want to take bets?
when the world comes crashin' down from all around
and you need a quiet place to hide
you'll find me deep inside my head
under a tree of thought, in a world of pain.

:) :)

really a great tune.. "gearbox"

no chorus, 3 straight minutes of pure conscience from simi valley.

looks like some of northwestern FL is getting some rain. brooksville north to the big bend
what about little ol' me? my handle is horrible but I loathe downtown orlando... boring with no soul.
Tried to post something...Test!
tks JP..but the silence is making my ears ring. Besides I would much rather hear you laugh.. :)
It went out there! Something about two direct inlet hits in 04 and then Wilma's eye in 05! But we don't exist. Ask anyone in the upper Gulf Coast.
hey JP, where do ya live?

experience charley? I'm in southern seminole county... about 3-5 miles from UCF. twas bad. I image randrewl has been through quite a bit. go through andrew? location?
imagine*
jphurricane2006...I didn't actually read that. We're invisible!
Randrewl - i am having problems here as well.

JP- that is much better!


heh the new names on the JMA list from the Hong Kong contrubution

Dolphin and Lionrock

hmm Typhoon Dolphin... sounds kind of odd.
jeanne was crazy. 60MPH winds for 16-20 hours. much better than 100MPH winds for 45 minutes from charley which took down half my trees and of course the new roof.

compared to tampa, jax, even cocoa (gasp!) orlando is bad for me. I really don't like the nightlife in orlando. I hope to move to the rockies soon :):):):)

If I live in FL, there needs to be a nightlife. otherwise off to the country where I can hike, MTB etc. right out the back door.

besides, houses in my area went from the 90's to the 250's for the same house. and I'm renting (23 years old)
Hades..do you think Typhoon Lionrock sounds any better? lol
I live in winter park
I had no involvement with Charley. Frances and Jeanne both made landfall in Florida a half mile from my house. I lost one branch from Andrew....my handle has nothing to do with that one...I live 100 miles north of that mess. Wilma was probably the worst of the most recent bunch...ripped the crap out of us around here! And I am on the opposite coast from landfall!
wow, I am 3 miles from there. you know where dodd and red big meet? I'm by lake howell high school.

my mailing addy is winter park but growing up in deer run, I still feel I am "closer" to winter springs.

IE: I don't live near park Ave.

man!! randrewl, you have been through some bad ones.

near stuart I suppose.....
all the brick walls around my house that came down amazed me. that was a crazy week. glad it was extremely short lived. 45-100MPH in about an hour in seemed. UCF got trashed. the entrance still does not look the same.
Time to call it a night guys (and girls if any are lurking)..will talk with you later.
Good night!
the multiple ear popping is the thing I will never forget. like someone shot me from sea level to 10,000 feet. I had no idea you could FEEL that kind of pressure. people that have been in worse, my thoughts and prayers are with you.
Posted By: borlando at 5:58 AM GMT on August 19, 2006.
man!! randrewl, you have been through some bad ones.

near stuart I suppose.....


Yes, I'm in Port Salerno....just off the St. Lucie inlet where Frances and Jeanne finally decided to make landfall. They were really nothing spectacular...just your basic hurricane.
I never saw anything like Wilma though.
last thought for me then I'm off to bed....

the tropics are just like many things in life... we think we have a good grip but nature/science... we are really just beginning.
lol - JP

Oh, I would stay up and discuss storms but we have had too many hit around here just in past few years!
jphurricane2006 ..See ya and everyone.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

OFFSHORE THE LOW LEVEL TROPICAL VORTEX CONTINUES ABOUT 90 NM
OFFSHORE OF MAYPORT...WITH LITTLE SIGN OF MOVEMENT. STEERING FLOW IS
TO THE SSW BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS AND A TUTT
NE OF THE BAHAMAS.
one more I suppose....

out of the jacksonville radar... looks like it made a real move to the west. maybe WSW.
lol, randrewl I didn't see your post

j-ville radar from WU....

Link
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

.DISCUSSION...

SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR 30.5N/80W DRIFTING WEST THIS EVENING WITH
STILL SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA INTO NRN LAKE
COUNTY. AIRMASS ACROSS SEMINOLE/ORANGE/LAKE COUNTY NEVER REALLY GOT
WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION TODAY WITH CIRRUS CANOPY FROM CONVECTION
OFFSHORE SPREADING SW OVER THIS AREA MOST OF THE DAY.
18Z GFS PROBABLY HAS CORRECT TREND WITH A WESTWARD MOVEMENT TO SFC
LOW BUT WILL TREND SLOWER THAN GFS/NAM/RUC PROGS. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR A NOCTURNAL FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ON THE SRN EXTENSION FROM THE
SFC LOW ACROSS OUR NRN MARINE AREA OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS LATE
AND HAVE INCLUDED HIGHER POPS THERE.
borlando..Pretty weird stuff here. Nobody agrees still on 93L! Ya gotta laugh!
I was hinting that orlando area may be dry today (18th). it was 81 degress at 12:30 and dense overcast. sun never poked out until 1:00 or so.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

...UPPER LOW NEAR 30N 75W WILL MOVE WEST-
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE,
DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAKER TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
COUPLE WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES TO RESULT IN SCT TO NMRS
SHWRS/TSTMS SATURDAY. INCREASING UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY AND WEST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS MONDAY WITH HIGH SCT POPS REMAINING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.
WED THROUGH FRI...A LONG WAVE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN SCT AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY.



Yeah, that last part I don't like.
borlando...the way this is shaping up you might stay dry for longer than expected.
All the local NWS guys will update in an hour or so....I'll wait for all that.
eh, I'm here. a special occasion, had some real champagne for the first time. white star. it was ok. strong beer palate but the bubbly..... I'll stick to korbel or cooks.

arrogant bastard or a nice IPA sounds good.

93L has "convection" (more like moisture) on all sides. looks good on radar. broad compared to earlier though, man! there went any thread of hope for a weak TS left.

hey, I like to surf. A Tropical storm 100-200 miles out is a good thing. unless it dumps excessive rain inland. but what can ya do?
borlando...the longer it sits...the better the wave potential. I used to surf TS's...till I damn near drowned!
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 19W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION
OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 8N29W 10N41W 9N62W THEN
ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 40W-47W.
"till I damned near drowned"

I hear ya, I don't go out over 6 foot. I've done a lot of crazy sports at my young age but surfing a 5 foot swell is the scariest. maybe b/c I'm a horrible surfer. great swimmer but with the board, the ocean is a BEAST.

speaking of which, I'll be at NSB tomorrow surfing the 2 foot swell. when a 5-6 foot face wave is staring you down and you can't touch the bottom... that's just too much for me.

hell, one time (maybe 3-4 foot at flagler) we estimated it was 12-14 deep between a sandbar. couldn't find the bottom.... I tried. surfed a wave in, broke the nose off my board and dragged across the bottom. I still give it a go though :)

hard sport/lifestyle. a guy at surf-station.com has a signature that says "if it were easy, everyone would do it". very true.
When you see that green stuff on the Funktop...that means severeley high and cold tops. I'm not seeing that on the ITCZ influenced wave much lower than the current cell over the African continent.


borlando...Yeah....I still have coral gashes that never truly heal. I've been dragged all over the bottom surfing storms in my younger days.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA
COASTLINE...WITH BRIEF INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSED THE GULF
STREAM. BANDING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH WEAKER OUTER-MOST BANDS ADVANCING OVER
MAINLY COASTAL COUNTIES OF NORTH FLORIDA. MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WEST FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE OVER THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND FURTHER WEAKEN...WHILE UPPER LOW AND
SURFACE REFLECTION ADVANCE WEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY WHILE
SURFACE REFLECTION FRACTURES OFF AND ADVANCES NORTH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
MONDAY NIGHT...POSITIONING OVER SOUTH GEORGIA TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MEAN LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY...BUT WILL BE SUPPRESSED
SLOWLY SOUTH WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CARVE
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
306 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST AND BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY. THE LOW WILL
OPEN UP SUNDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST.
WESTERN END OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA IN MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES/POPS SHOULD BE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY.
BY
MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST JUST OFFSHORE JACKSONVILLE. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER THEN LARGE
DEBRIS SHIELDS HAVE BEEN GETTING BLOWN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
TODAY...HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED TO MAKE SOME SENSE OF THE MODELS THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE BASICALLY DECIDED NOT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST
MUCH.
ONE BIG PROBLEM IS HOW MUCH DEBRIS CLOUDS EXIST AGAIN...WHICH
WOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...LIKE YESTERDAY. THE GFS
MOS IS HANGING OUT 80 PERCENT POPS TODAY BUT THERE IS AGAIN A
CONSIDERABLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA.
THE GFS DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD IN DRIFTING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING IT. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA...AND DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET SOME HEATING UP THERE.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
That's it for the invisible coast y'all. Have a great Saturday!
1345. GetReal
93L continues to confuse the boys at the NHC, and refuses to just go away and die. 93L, by any standard definition of a TD, is now a TD. The NHC seems to refuse to admit to under estimating this system this morning. The low level circulation had become better organized this morning. The Jacksonville radar confirms that banding convection is increasing on the eastern side of the circulation. The St. Augustine wx buoy is reporting a rapidly falling barometer, currently at 29.85 inches, with a sustained SW wind near 25kts. 93L appears to now be drifting slowly towards the WSW, and may actually have a shot at TS status before landfall, if wind shear falls off even slightly.
The blob just to the east of the Windward Islands look pretty interesting!Link
1347. IKE
To me...too much wind shear for 93L.

To me...the most interesting feature is at 12N, 77W...probably what the models had hinted at possibly developing. The NAM still shows it...the CMC doesn't. Haven't checked the other models and the way models are, not sure I should...
1348. IKE
From this mornings Tallahassee weather discussion..It is interesting to note that the GFS and European model (ecmwf) no longer
forecast a tropical cyclone in our area later in the week.
1349. IKE
In talking about 93L...what do I know>>>>>"Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on August 19, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Radar and surface observations indicate that the small low pressure
area centered about 65 miles east of Jacksonville Florida has
become a little better organized this morning. However...
upper-level winds are not favorable and additional development...if
any...should be slow to occur. This system will likely produce
showers and thunderstorms along the coast of Georgia...northeast
Florida and adjacent waters during the next day or two as it moves
slowly westward.
A small area of disturbed weather associated with a westward
moving tropical wave is about 450 miles northeast of the
Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds remain unfavorable for additional
development.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.
$$
Forecaster Beven

1350. IKE
The 06UTC GFS shows basically nothing developing...even the African wave that they showed as the first hurricane of the season..the GFS now no longer has it as anything beyond about 40W...I guess it gets sheared to death.
1351. IKE
But...there's always...

Head On...apply directly to the forehead.
Head on...apply directly to the forehead.
Head on...apply directly to the forehead.

GEEZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WoW look at this. it looks like our storm over africa is stregnthing in the last frame. lets see what the east atl. IFR say at 8 AM ET
This storm is reminding me of Ophelia from last year - she just wouldn't go away and wouldn't make up her mind what she wanted to do.
thats funny because i was just looking back on a blog where Jeff Masters was looking back on her
They all look like hurricanes over Africa but as soon as they hit the water its POOF!
pretty muck Wayne, and i think it is in the afternoon where that one is, so T-Storms would be building at this time
1st Hurricane will be in October with 75mph winds. It will be a fish storm that only last for 2 days before getting ripped apart by shear.And that will be the only.
i remember in June(not yet Cape Verde Season but anyway) i saw a good looking system, hit water and boom it was gone
East Atlantic
East Atlantic IFR
Morning StormW!
quite in here again
i amagine by 3PM that wave over Africa will be over the ocean and, getting killed??
Mornin WUBAs! How's 93 look.....what still there? I need coffee!
Hey Storm......whazzzzzzz up?
Good Morning everyone!
Dr.Laura, how are you?

Is it just me or are the tropics looking juicy today? Lots of moisture in the air, at least as far as I can see on WV.

27! Mornin girlfriend!!! Storm, will we have a proper burial for 93 today? Will we have it more than once??? :)
1369. ricderr
good morning boys and girls
Still and thick here right now, clouds d r i f t i n g by 77 degrees....I should mow the lawn, but I haven't had enough coffee yet (too many jello shooters last night).....maybe it'll rain. HA!
Not sure why but my posts are not showing up...hope this one does.
Ric...you're up early. Mornin, baby!
Morning Ric,

Wish I could hang out with y'all, but I have too many things to do today.

See you on Monday, when hopefully we'll have something to watch.
1374. ricderr
enjoy 27..good luck with your party
Just went back and read some late night posts! What a hoot! I'm thinking of doing a WU cartoon strip of late night posts.....just LOVE, LOVE, LOVE watchin those boys fall face first into a big plate of GRITS! LOL
1376. ricderr
ma'am...i'm up by o500 everyday...now you..with the jello shooters is what surprises me
1377. ricderr
hmmmmm......face first....grits....might sound fun
East Atlantic
A tropical wave that moved off Africa yesterday, appears to have develop a broad, mid-low level circulation (which has become ill-defined), accompanied by moderate-strong convection. The tropical wave is located along the ITCZ, at 8N, embedded in a very unstable upper air environment, that stretches into the central Atlantic towards another wave at 40W. The wave has become somewhat less-organized this morning, with showers along the wave axis spreading into the ITCZ.

The wave has persisted for almost 48hrs under the influence of the ITCZ.

It is over wind shear of 15-20knots and 27-28C sea surface temperatures.

The wave will be steered west to WNW by a weak surface High in the Eastern Atlantic

Future of the Wave if it develops:
Two Upper level highs will be present as the wave moves through the Central Atlantic. One near the Cape Verde Islands, the other in the Central Atlantic.

These Highs will create favorable environment, such as low wind shear, upper level divergence and low level convergence, towards 55W

The wave will be embedded in very unstable environment, all the way to 50W, beyond that is uncertain.

The Upper level low NE of the Leeward Islands, will weakened and move north, thus creating a even a more favorable environment.

The waves track will take it through a strip of above 28C sea surface temperatures.

What Can stop it from Developing?
If it continues to be influence by the ITCZ.

If thunderstorms/showers can no longer persist.

Bottom Line
The wave can only develop if it persist outside the ITCZ.
Storm - What do you think of the BAM med model? Surely would hate to see that happen. They can't handle ANY thing more than a nice afternoon shower right now. I'm worried for my friends.
Ric - I'm USUALLY up by 0530, and frequently stay up late as well. Ah, the jello shooters. Practicing for my dementia years.....jello, you know there's always room for jello!!! Just because some perceive me as a "brainiac" (LOL), doesn't mean I don't know to have fun. Hmmmm, maybe that's part of why I haven't made history yet! Ha!
get ready to see a decrease in convection at the next IFR image from Africa
1382. ricderr
laura...life is way too short to not have fun..i take very few things seriously......
TRUE THAT RIC!!!!
1384. ricderr
ok......wanted to know...where were you raised laura.....curious to know how many paths we've crossed
1385. Patrap
..iz awake..sipping tea..looking @ the Times-picayune..also laughing @ the overnight puter runs on florida system
Morning ya'll:)

That 93 is a tough lil bugger idn't it?
1387. IKE
Most of those models show 93L crossing into the gulf and getting turned back toward the gulf coast.

The Caribbean blob at 12N, 78W is firing up this morning.
1388. Patrap
..smells grits?....saltwater..?...or is it just me?
1389. IKE
93L will not die. Strong circulation.
1390. Patrap
..93L is like a cockaroacha..lotsa stamina..one hard bug to squash..LOL
AH! MORNIN GENTLEMEN.......feels like home in here!

Ric -
Born and raised on a 1000acre farm in South Dakota....4 brothers 1 sister. Went to CAL from there, Palo Alto then 4 years traveling/studying in Asia. Seattle after that, New Orleans and now JAX. In a nutshell LOL
Laura, IMHO the BAM models are never very accurate more then a couple of days out. They perform fairly well in the short term, but after 48hrs they don't seem to do to well from what I have seen. Stick to the global models for long range track.
1393. Patrap
..sounds like the reeldrlaura had a lil fun with da girls..bet them berled shrimp didnt survive the Shooters ..
Thanks StormJ - I frequently go to your blog as well...lots of good stuff there!
looks like i wont get any rain out of this one

11 inches below normal here according to local met.
StormW! Thanks, baby. Not going to have a lot of time to watch today,it's a working day for me, but will be dropping in and out now and then to see what ya'll are thinking!
1398. Patrap
..lokks like the circulation iz due east of Jax ..moving around 268-270...not very fast though..a creeper..
East Atlantic IFR
East Atlantic IFR

some loss of convection
Patrap -
De shrimps des dead, and de jello ees shot! We did burn up de floor wid some dancin to, cher!!!
1402. Patrap
..looks out window of trailer/..sees grass up a bit..looks like the decision will be to cut in the AM ...or PM...will toss coin..
1403. ricderr
ok folks.,...enjoy your day...i'm off to the airport and georgia....da big brass are joining....not sure what it means..and that's always scary
1404. Patrap
..ahhhhh man..I knew you all were gonna kick it up a notch..you go gurl...
Travel safe Ric! Bon Voyage.
Thanks Laura, sorry you have to work today!

Looks like the Nogaps is still trying to develop a very weak system in the W Carib. Will also be interested to see how these African waves do in the CATL.
i wonder what TWC would be doing if a hurricane hit hawaii
1408. Patrap
..did ya see the overnight runs of the BAMM on 93L...bet thall make the Emg Planners cringe
1409. IKE
Looks like 93L moves in just south of JAX...hello Duval county...rain on the way.......
Good morning all. Pat, I'm doing the same thing. Our home is on three lots...that means lots of cutting and trimming. Plus I'm a neat freak...all that makes for a lllloooonnnngggg hot Saturday.
1411. refill
Anything new from the waves off Africa?? Still development potential????
If you look at the forcast tracks above you will see the Yellow pink and green lines bring it into the Gulf so if the COC is still their could it develop in the Gulf
1413. Patrap
..same thing the TWC did with Iniki,..play it all the way thru..that was a wicked Island storm..think it was mid or early 90s...
Would somebody pleeze send me a link on this BAMM run that I'm hearing so much about?
See ya ric...

Love the Gullah Dr L, wish we had some audio to go along with that :)
1416. IKE
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 8:04 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
Good morning all. Pat, I'm doing the same thing. Our home is on three lots...that means lots of cutting and trimming. Plus I'm a neat freak...all that makes for a lllloooonnnngggg hot Saturday.


Problem is...I mow and 4 days later it's right back up again. Looks nice for about 2 days.

You watch the joke of a game for Houston last night?
Patrap - Still alive and swear by golly, I WILL go out kickin and screamin all the way! :O
1418. Patrap
..LOL scroll up to Masters plan of the dau..the Bamm onthe map...SWla
Ike, let's just say that we almost needed a new TV remote. The wife, cat and dog all ran for cover. I just don't know why I subject myself (and them) to that team.
1420. Patrap
..spoken like a true Southern Lady...any urge to return to S. Dakota?
SWLA, the BAMM is the yellow line above. The BAMMD is the green line above. Look at those out to the second white square and then foreget that you saw anything past that. Only good out to about 48hrs are the BAM models.

I know you can find a text portion of it somewhere, but not sure where.
The models have been showing this for several days now. Is there any credence to 93 crossing Fl and strengthening?
1423. Patrap
..watched Chicago whoop San Diego...best part was a 100 yrd TD kickoff return for Chicago..Placekickers cant tackle...LOL
mornin IKE - I swear, it's lovely here right now, little wind, cotton candy clouds, can't smell the rain yet, so it's at leas a few miles away yet. I'll go out right now and look up.....BRB :)
1425. IKE
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 8:08 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
Ike, let's just say that we almost needed a new TV remote. The wife, cat and dog all ran for cover. I just don't know why I subject myself (and them) to that team.


I'm better off just not watching them. My blood pressure can't take it anymore.

Bring on the NFL!
Ike, I never thought I'd say this...but they need to get rid of Lidge.
1427. IKE
Posted By: reeldrlaura at 8:11 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
mornin IKE -


Good morning...man this coffees good!
1428. Patrap
..93L has yest to play out..these lingering systems with nice circulation pattern seem to be persistent.With that deep easterly flow..I believe it may still have a chance to survive the crossing..and then what?
What are the latest model runs for the developement in the SW Caribbean as well as the African wave?
1430. IKE
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 8:13 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
Ike, I never thought I'd say this...but they need to get rid of Lidge.


Yup...he's a headcase...he needs a change of scenery. He'll probably come back and dominate the Astros.

And Preston Wilson homers in his first game as a Cardinal. Just wait...he'll have a 2 homer game at MMP when the Cards come in to H-town.
SWLA, there is a very outside chance that something of 93L could survive it's trip across Fla....Very very unlikely though. The GFDL above gives you a good idea of what should happen. You can also use and set the field to 850mb vorticity to see how 93L plays out. THe GFDL model field should be left at surface pressure though.this page

You can find that page and more on the StormJunkie.com Quick Links page.
Does anyone have a handle on what next week's GOM conditions will be? (Shear, ULL's, TUTT's)
Pat - Return to SD? WILD horses couldn't drag me....TOO COLD!! I can visit family any time, but it's been more than a couple of years. Been there.....too much world still left to see!
1434. IKE
Posted By: Patrap at 8:14 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
..93L has yest to play out..these lingering systems with nice circulation pattern seem to be persistent.With that deep easterly flow..I believe it may still have a chance to survive the crossing..and then what?


Moisture is suppose to increase along the Gulf coast starting Monday. 93L may play a role in it.
1435. Patrap
..New Orleans SAints and the Reggie Bush show VS the Dallas Cowboys Mon nite..7pm cst..nationwide..also..Spike Lees new Film Premieres same Hour..on HBO.."When the Levees broke"...first 2 hours ..Mon @ 7..second 2 hours..Tues @ 7...cst..went to premiere last Wed..give it 3 outta 5 stars...Ist hour best...
Ok IKE - It is wonderfully thick outside, winds are from E to NE at about 1mph....gusting to 3....I think most of it will be south of me....I'm about 1 1/2 Mi from the mouth of the St. John. Do I have time to mow the lawn??? :)
1437. Patrap
..OK IIke..Gmorning to ya..
1438. C2News
hey everyone i am in jacksonville...what can i expect today?
1439. C2News
reeldrlaura....where do ya live? i live just west on intracoastal
1441. IKE
Good morning.......

Caribbean wave is firing up some good convection @ 12N, 78W...interesting to see what it does.

Anyone have a wind shear map for the Caribbean thru Monday. The WU shear map shows favorable for the western Caribbean.
Check out the monster wave that the GFS develops over Africa at the end of the forecast period. A 1000mb wave before it leaves the coast?
Posted By: C2News at 1:18 PM GMT on August 19, 2006.
hey everyone i am in jacksonville...what can i expect today?

ROFL.....what can I expect today?

Mornin C2 - expect anything, and nothing will surprise you!
C2 - Ft. Caroline
1445. Patrap
..the only real factor about crossing Florida is that its relativly flat..and the amount of time it spends over land is also a factor...if it can keep some identity after the crossing..Id be a lil concerned.Till then ..its just a rainmaker
1446. IKE
93L is looking better each frame...convection increasing...landfall is imminent.
If it keeps moving at the rate it currently is......it won't make it into the G
OM until next season! :)
1448. IKE
A tropical system making landfall in JAX. Now that's rare.
I am scared 93L is headed towards me..*shaking...
1450. IKE
Posted By: reeldrlaura at 8:26 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
If it keeps moving at the rate it currently is......it won't make it into the G
OM until next season! :)


Looks like it's moving a little faster...slightly south of west.
Maybe I will finally see some rain here. I have had more rain with afternoon storms then I have had with a tropical system 60 miles off the coast..LOL Oh well, lets hope for some rain.
1452. C2News
tropical storm tammy last year landed in mayport
93L is somwhat better organized....but conditions are unfavorable for any futher development ,this feature will likely be just be a rain event for north florida.

Ive also been looking down south into the caribbean and the convection north of Panama has increased the morning.i think this is in the begin stages of what the models were bringing into the gulf next week. Right now there is an ULL west of jamaica,which is causeing unfavorable conditions,the problem in my opinion is that the GFS model is calling for this ULL to slowly weaken in the next 24-48 hours.The GFS is also calling for huge upper-level anticycone to develope somewere in the eastern caribbean.the problem i see here is that the GFS model is saying that the anticylone will park itself in the NW caribbean,if this indeed occurs the U.S might be in some trouble as the doors will be open for a path towards the GOM.

Right now guys until I see the ULL weaken nothing will get going,but the convection is now there so it has to be watched.

Here is an IR pic of the area...






Morning 03, looks to be so, better board up....lol :)

Does not look like a great day to take those kids to the beach though...
1455. IKE
Posted By: C2News at 8:29 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
tropical storm tammy last year landed in mayport


Oops...you're right!

Sorry...senior moment!
1456. guygee
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 1:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2006.
I am scared 93L is headed towards me..*shaking...

You might have to mow our lawn again soon, I undertand.

Guten Morgen!
1457. Patrap
..has been thinking about posting starting early on the 29th about the time Katrina made landfall...I have my Journal notes from that morning ..and thought it might be Kinda interesting to show how the morning & day unfolded.I was On Bonnabel Blvd near the Lake..about 1 mile west of the 17th St. Canal breech.ID figured i would strt posting @ 0500cause it was about 0515 that the eyewall hit...then I would post every half-hour till round 2pm when the winds started to come round to SW & abate...any thoughts on this?..would kinda be a way for me to convey the feeling of the day..
Also the wave about to exit africa has a nice envelope it and will need to be watched as some models are calling for some development of this wave.
1459. guygee
*Your lawn
No kidding SJ. I need an alternate plan. Looks like movies and craziness today. Oh well.
like huh 93L dos not give up
well, i "guessed" jacksonville would be the landfall point for 93l..... i just didnt realize it would take 3-4 days to get there! LOL

93l just refuses to quit!!!



:)
1463. Patrap
23..iz this the beginning you believe of the system the NAM brings up from the se in around 65 hrs?
23, where are you getting those IR images you are using? And why is ther so much white in the clouds. This is not the way these maps look when you use the GHCC site....What gives?
i say u are going to get rain if u live between Savannah, Ga and Vero Beach, FL
Ike - winds at Craig arpt show 3 mph now from NNW .....93 is slowly spin i n g , to the south of me, probably looking dicier around Beaches, St. Aug , etc.
1467. IKE
The 06UTC NAM is back on board with the Caribbean disturbance and has it moving in a more NNW direction vs. WNW last night. The CMC latest run doesn't develop it.
1468. guygee
Gulfscotsman might need to add the "Mothra Corollary': "Once a convectively driven LLC is established, it is not truly dead until the LLC dissipates." We saw this with Chris as well.
Storm junkie try here just pick an area you want to look at and then zoom in.

SEE HERE

1470. C2News
wil it become a depression?
1471. IKE
I think the Caribbean disturbance could be a problem for someone.
1472. Patrap
..Goes-12..best close to real-time ya gonna get..invaluble tool when systems threaten..in my book..
Hurricane Hector
Close Up Of Hector
Ike, thel ric, pat, SJ.......all y'all. I WILL check back later. It's getting dark now and the wind is picking up.......I like to watch these things so I'll just say keep it spinnin!
1476. Patrap
..go do yer thing reel..enjoy..stay safe..Im out to maka the omelette,,later
Storm junkie try here just pick an area you want to look at and then zoom in.

SEE HERE
dont worry it will be onshore in 24 hours
1479. guygee
I have been using two buoy obsevation stations to continue to judge the health of the LLC. I seems it has neither weakened nor strengthened much since it has reached the area roughly east of the FL-GA border:

Station 41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA (31.40 N 80.87 W)
5-Day Wind-Pressure Plot
5- Day Wind Direction Plot

Station 41012 - St. Augustine, FL 40NM ENE of St Augustine, FL (30.0 N 80.6 W)
5 Day Wind-Pressure Plot
5-Day Wind Direction Plot
thats what Dr. Steve Lyons said
That explains it 23, I don't use that map very often. I don't usually use the hurricane sector. Wonder why the the scale is different on the hurricane sector from the GHCC?

Don't know SW, there is some shear down there, will have to see what happens towards the beginning of the week.
1482. IKE
NEW BLOG.
TWC is about to talk about the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane
This site is closest to real time you can get, but only on storm close to U.S. Its usually within 10-20 minutes of real time.
Link
Yep....he also said there's 40-50kts of shear coming over the top of 93L,in my book that means no devlopment.
See ya laura :) have a great day.
there was an article in the paper about the Lake Okeechobee dike, they said that there are crack's that could cause a break, the water would flood all the way to wellington, which is about 30 miles away
its quite
1489. Patrap
...refer to Dutch solution for fixing the dike..