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Northeast flooding continues; Hong Hong breathing easier

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:12 PM GMT on May 16, 2006

Major flooding continues across New Hampshire, southwest Maine, and northeast Massachussetts today, where an additional 1-3 inches of rain has fallen in the past day and another inch is expected today. The culprit "cut off low"--a large low pressure system that got separated from the jet stream--is drifting slowly northeastward, and is expected to leave the area tonight, bringing an end to the heavy rains and the worst of the flooding. However, an active jet stream pattern over the next seven days will continue to bring occasional rain to the area, and area rivers--which are generally five to eight feet above flood stage--will be slow to fall. By next Tuesday, the GFS model is indicating that a more summer-like weather pattern may emerge, with the jet stream retreating northwards and warmer, dryer air moving in.


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts for New England estimated by radar, ending at 10am EDT Monday May 16.

Typhoon Chanchu
The season's first typhoon has continued to weaken, and was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph sustained winds at 8am EDT this morning. Chanchu (which means "pearl" in Chinese), is expected to continue to weaken over the next day due to dry air, cooler ocean temperatures in its path, and interaction with land. The typhoon is expected to spare Hong Kong a direct hit, and come ashore over the Guangdong province on China's eastern coast on Wednesday as a Category 2 storm. This is a far cry from last Friday's intensity forecast, which projected that Chanchu would strike as a Category 5 supertyphoon! Chanchu is yet another example of our poor ability to make accurate long-range hurricane intensity forecasts.

Chanchu delivered a serious blow to the Philippines over the weekend, killing at least 37 and leaving thousands homeless.


Figure 2. Typhoon Chanchu at 5:30 am EDT Tuesday, with 125 mph sustained winds.

My next blog will be Wednesday, when I'll talk more about air pollution, plus the Northeast flooding and Typhoon Chanchu.

Jeff Masters
Flooding of the North River in Lee NH
Flooding of the North River in Lee NH
Normally this river is about 10 feet below the bridge. The pavement across the bridge is about half eroded, the bridge will probably need replacing.
Serious Flooding in Chester
Serious Flooding in Chester
This was taken along Hanson Rd in Chester near the Raymond line. Who knows how deep it is here, but I'm assuming no one will be driving through here for awhile.

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dr. Masters - who actually does the forecasting for typhoons in the Western Pacific?
Naples I am pretty sure its the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Thanks WSI - interesting, the JTWC is a US govt agency.
The JTWC is not the official warning center, I believe it is handled by one of a few countries in the area depending on its location.
The JTWC isn't an offical warning center. Their moto is, "If it isn't near the U.S., it's your problem."

Colby, did you take care of the vandal on your site in the Q&A section?
Their moto is, "If it isn't near the U.S., it's your problem."

What do you mean by this? If this were true, then the JTWC would not even exist (when was the last time a West/South Pacific or Indian Ocean storm affected the U.S.)?
Heavy rain is moving across South Florida associated with a southward moving coldfront

From NOAA Tropical Weather Discussion:
"HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ARE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GULF E OF 89W FROM 21N-27N. THIS SHIELD OF HEAVY RAIN IS SUPPORTED BY SFC FRONTAL FORCING AND 150-300 MB DIVERGENCE VALUES OF GREATER THAN 20 ACCORDING TO THE UW/CIMSS 09 UTC ANALYSIS.

DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING EWD ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN MOVING ONSHORE FROM TAMPA TO THE FL KEYS. BASED ON IR SAT IMAGERY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS S OF THE FRONT NE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 84W-87W."
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 10:13 AM CDT on May 16, 2006.

What do you mean by this? If this were true, then the JTWC would not even exist (when was the last time a West/South Pacific or Indian Ocean storm affected the U.S.)?


It was just a really bad joke.
What is the main purpose of the JTWC; that is, there are official warning centers for the areas that the JTWC covers.
bout time we got some all day rain here in orlando. exactly what we need.

my family on my dad's side lives just south of the MA/NH border. i wonder how much rain they've had...
Look at it this way. If you were on a ship in the Pacific ocean, would you rather have a forcast from the Chinese Gov't or the U.S. Gov't? The U.S. is alot better than any other country at forcasting weather.
12. WSI
"The JTWC is not the official warning center, I believe it is handled by one of a few countries in the area depending on its location."

It issues warnings and names storms. I would say its pretty official.

Here.
13. WSI
However, the other countries seem to do their own thing as well. Seems a lot of things overlap.
The Phillipines will also name a storm if it affects the Phillipines.
RL3AO - Of course, the US has outsourced our forecasting to a call center in China, but that's beside the point... {smirk}
Sometimes they don't agree on intensity; for example, JTWC had Monica at 180 mph and 879 mb, while Australia also had Monica at 180 mph; they didn't actually say 180 mph, but the wind gusts were the same - 190 kts (JTWC) = 350 kmph (Australia), but the pressure was 905 mb.
I just looked on the radar. It looks like we are going to get hit again with Strong Thunderstorms here in South Florida. Yesterday and last night/early morning was amazing!!! I haven't seen storms like this since the no-name storm about 4 years ago!!!
How do you post those regional radar images when the entire image is a link to a local radar?
Which images are you talking about? The NWS radar? The links are not part of the image; I can easily make such a link by using the img code inside of a link (instead of using "Link" or something else, I use the img src="URL" instead; you can see this used in my blog).
So like this?

We are thankful for last nights rain in the Yucatan. It helped put out some nasty fires that had been burning for a while. The tropical rainforests had been rendered dry from Emily and Wilma last year!

This kind of rain, with no hurricane strength winds and no storm surge is always welcome.
Hmmm...I don't know. Here is the link to the image I am trying to post.

This is how I tried doing it:

(img src="http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast.php")
Do you mean this:

Yeah that's it.
Oh, I see; you can't post a webpage as an image; it has to end in .jpg, .gif, etc.
I tried making the end of the url "jpg", but it didn't work.
How do you get the image in "gif" form?
Levi, you have it right, except you have to replace the parentheses with
To get the image's URL, right-click on the image and select properties; it will show the URL.
Oh do you go to this directory?
RL3AO, I did that so Michael could see the problem. I know how to post an image, but this one doesn't have the right url for an image.


That should work.
There I know how to do it now. Thanks Michael.
Directory? I didn't know that that existed; I just right-clicked on the image and selected Properties then copied the URL displayed. The Properties should be in a pop-up with things like Protocol, Type, Address (URL), Size, etc.
Have any of you noticed the curly thing at the tail end of the Florida cold front? It is in the middle of the Caribbean and it is barely warm core. The NHC seems to keep it in the Caribbean for the next 3 days. I don't know if it will get picked up north by the front though. Here is a sat shot of it.

Yes Michael that window did come up that is how I used it. Here is how you find website directories:

Take your url, in this case, "http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/RadarImg/southeast.gif"

Take one section of the url away from the end of it. The first step for this url is this:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/RadarImg/"

Here I took away the "southeast.gif" part of the url. The url I am left with in this case is a directory. Sometimes you can get a whole bunch of directories by taking away more parts of the url. Directories are usually the urls that don't end in "html", "htp", "php" or things like that.
Looks like you've figured it out, but incase someone else wants to know how to post an image.

TO INSERT AN IMAGE, YOU NEED THE IMAGE URL. TO GET THE IMAGE URL:
* RIGHT CLICK ON THE IMAGE
* SELECT PROPERTIES
* COPY THE URL


To insert the image, type this and fill in the url, leaving the quotations.



For example this directory. It has no real ending to the url. Just http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/

When you take away sections of an url to find a directory, the sections are the portions of the url in between the slashes.
I know about that; however, sometimes when I do that, I get a "Forbidden" error (some site apparantly don't allow you to view the directories).

Also, the NWS Central Region site seems to be down; I cannot get to my local NWS page, or any others that start "http://www.crh.noaa.gov/".
Also you must take sections away from the url starting from the very end of the url and working towards the beginning.
I can't get to your local NWS page either. I guess they have a problem right now.

Sometimes the content is forbidden, but it is 50-50 you will find some directory you can access. I find it quite useful. Those directories can usually supply you with stuff that wasn't on the main site. For example, in the SSD GOES Directory I just gave you, there are more than 4-5 new floaters that we didn't know about until the new SSD page came out a few days ago. That directory had those other floaters all the time but we didn't know about them.
The GOES directory also had all the other enhancements for the satellite images that the normal SSD page didn't have.
I also noticed that they saved images and loops from Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
Yes they did. Directories are very handy for that type of thing.
So what do you think about that curly Q in the Caribbean? If the NHC keeps it there for 3 days, then it will encounter low shear by then, and it already has convection.
The GFS suggests that the Caribbean system is the same low (not to be confused with the one near Florida) that was in the western Gulf; it originally was going to dissipate it over the Yucatan, but it has extended it now.
once again im glad i came on here...look people the rain you are getting in florida is once again caused by a cold low way up in the atmosphere..the tail end in the caribbean will move up the front across florida and cause SOUTH FLORIDA to have rains for several days which they desperately need..this is truly a GOD send and there is no way this low could become tropical in nature..this is a real test for you guys because in just 10 days i expect the tropics to really heat up so stay on your toes and please do not frighten anyone about this gulf system...thats all it is rain rain and more rain..i repeat people there is no chance of tropical activity for the next 10 days the sheer is just to high and the temps are maginal...THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN BY STORMTOPS HURRICANE WARNING OFFICE...001146..........
Look at the water temp in the pacific in phase 3 of this diagram!
Yeah ST, everyone's panicking on here, I'm glad you calmed us down. ;)
OMG. This is the first time I have ever agreed with ST!..LOL
The Colorado State site has some pretty good weather graphics. Some of it is not accessible, but most of the western hemisphere stuff is viewable.
Who's everyone?..LOL
It is surprising that the most intense storm in the East Pacific was only as strong as Katrina (although the winds were higher).
You know what STORMTOP, I can go on about a small curly q in the Caribbean if I want to! Let us be! I don't care if it won't form!!! I don't care if the shear is high! I don't care if the SSTs are too low! Just let us talk about things even if they are not going to develop. And quit with your stupid weather service. You have your opinion and I have mine. Keep your "professional" bulletins to yourself!
It makes sense when you think about it. Even though the EPac normally has more systems than the Atlantic, the EPac doesn't has as much area for rapid development as the Atlantic.
I'm perplexed. I want Stormtop to be wrong so badly I could spit, but I'd be wanting a hurricane, which brings death and destruction. And I really don't want to see people miserable and harmed. But I just want Stormtop to be proven wrong so bad. C'mooonnnn hurricane!!!
Just kidding I guess.
He has been proven wrong many times, and will be again this year..LOL

You tell 'em Levi!!
Of course, we all want to see something develop. If we said we didnt, we wouldnt be human Franck!..LOL
levi i will unless conditions warrant then i will assert myself to take over with my weather advisories...you guys can carry on nothing to worry about until 10 days then we have to be on our toes...StormTop
Stormtop you are not the most knowledgeable person on this blog if you think you are. You think we are all lower than you. Well we aren't and you quit acting like you are the top gun and Mr. knowitall and we are all just little amateurs that don't know anything!
Ok I can live with that but don't force your opinions and forecasts on us. Don't act like you are always right ok? It is very annoying!
This is getting fun to read.
What you guys have never yelled at STORMTOP before?
I didn't find this site until December, but by the sound of it, I wish I would've been here for all of last season.
See, I drove him off lol. He's gone not to worry.
On the East Pacific: there has actually been a Category 5 in June in the East Pacific before. Not only that, it was the third most intense storm and it formed in a La Nina year on June 7. Link
levi its not the time to argue we have to save as many lives this year as we can and warn residents alot earlier so what hAPPENED LAST YEAR WITH KATRINA WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN...IT WONT AS LONG AS IM HERE I CAN ASSURE YOU OF THAT...STOP LISTENING TO THOSE COMPUTERS THEY HAVE LOST IT..THERE ARE TO MANY WEATHER CHANGES THAT ARE HAPPENING RIGHT NOW..RELY ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IR PICS IN MOTION AND THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT ARE PRESENT AROUND THE STORM...
Oh, if that ever happened in the Atlantic, it would be the end of the world...
RL3AO you wouldn't have wanted to be around to see all the fights, cussing, and bannings. It was horrible. If push comes to shove this season, I will have all the good people come to my blog and ban the bad ones so they are left by themselves in Dr. Master's blog.
Great! ST will save us!! I feel better now!..LOL
StormTop is the way he is and will not change. You have to learn to accept the fact that he does have a decent knowledge of the tropics and that he will be right sometimes.

SJ
Stormtop I do look at weather info around the storm are you kidding? And the computers provide some insite. Also that surface forecast was from the NHC so it is worth noting.

You did IT again you said "IT WONT AS LONG AS IM HERE I CAN ASSURE YOU OF THAT". See? This is what I am talking about. You are making it look as though you are the best and only one that can warn people in time and properly. If anything I am just keeping people informed about the tropical disturbances in the Caribbean! I am not saying a hurricane is going to hit Florida or anything like that! All I am doing is looking at the areas of disturbed weather and telling people about them so they know what is going on.
HASTA LA VISTA I DONT HAVE TIME TO ARGUE LEVI DO WHAT YOU WANT.ILL BE BACK WHEN SOMETHING STARTS TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 2 WEEKS....HAVE A GREAT DAY ALL AND DONT BICKER...
SJ I know stormtop knows a lot I didn't say he doesn't. He can and will be right sometimes like everyone else. But I don't like the way he is even if he won't change.
I'm preying for a depression this week, or in August, just not in 2 weeks.
BYE BYE STORMTOP I GUESS YOU DON'T HAVE TIME TO TALK TO LESS KNOWLEGABLE PEOPLE THEN YOURSELF. I HOPE YOU DON'T COME BACK. QUIT WITH THE CAPS LOCK OR I WILL DO IT TOO.
I am leaving for breakfast now. I will be back later today. See you all later!
So, uh ST, how many interviews did you get on CNN to warn people about Katrina? I must have missed them.
Levi. I know how anoying ST can be. I was one of the ones arguing with him last. Trust me on this one, don't let him bother you. Read what he has to say, form your opinion, argue it with the facts. That is it. Don't get in to his ego cause you can't change it. Don't get in to his caps thing, cause you can't change it. Don't get in to his attitude, cause you can't change it. Basically use him. Learn what you can from him and let the rest of the crap fall by the wayside.

Alright ya'll, I have some errands to run, but I will be back later to check in. Please continue to stop by StormJunkie.com. leave any feedback you have in my blog. Please also leave any links to good info, articles, and sites in my blog. Ya'll have been a great help so far.

Thanks ya'll
SJ
Good advice SJ. Yes, I like to tease him alot, but he does bring some insight, just like everyone else on here.
Hey Levi, at least you're not his neighbor!..LOL
Sorry.....last year
On The Next Episode of
"As The Storm Spins..."

Our Intrepid Forecasters Try to Ferret Out
The Location & Motives of the Sinister Alberto...
Tensions Rise, Egos Clash, Rain will Fall.
Will Anyone Perish?? Only The Fishies May Know...

Stay Tuned.
86. Alec
Hey guys, ditto with Levi...we can talk what we want to in here(weather-related)...
Hey, Stormtop, I don't suppose you'd like to blog on my site? It keeps posts forever, so you'd be able to go back and show your successes.
I just realized something - Emily is a name in EPAC too!
Doesn't Wunderground keep all of your posts (unless the blog owner deletes them)?
Never mind, it was only used through 1977. The last one was a weak TS.
91. Alec
Colby this wunderground has a search option on the upper right. Type in the key words "Stormtop and Emily" and it will show you all the blogs from last yr and how ST did w/Emily...
of course stormtop is right sometimes. like a broken clock is right 2x/day.

and right now, there really is no chance of tropical development for a while. the big cutoff low is making sure of that.
the archived blogs are interesting...a good way to go back and check on those who claim to have exceptional abilities to predict the paths of hurricanes....
95. Alec
correct rwdobson..look at Stormtop's predictions with Emily, Gert for example...shows the models were doing good during those times...
How well ST did with Emily?

Who in the world could've misforecast Emily? That was one of the most by-the-book storms ever.

While wunderground does have a search feature and does keep posts, it's annoying to look for them though a 500-comment entry.
I really don't believe this. Less than a tenth of an inch here, yet the entire friggin low is anchored over the state. I've given up on this stupid drought, this is absurd.
Colby..even when Emily was making landfall in northern Mexico he said that Emily would drift south stall out in the Bay of Campeche and rapidly move NE toward the Central Gulf Coast specifically SE Louisiana as a cat 4 or 5
And he continually maintained throughout her lfie that she would never touch Mexico and go towards SE LA as a Category 5. He actually thought Grand Cayman would get 160 mph winds as well.
100. Alec
With the archives i found this:

Posted By: STORMTOP at 11:52 PM GMT on July 17, 2005.
EMILY WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME A STRONG CAT 4....IF SHE GOES UP THE CENTRAL GULF THE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES THERE...EMILY WILL STRENGTEN TO A CATEGORY 5 ON MONDAY IF THIS HAPPENS..IF SHE TAKES MORE OF A NW COURSE TOWARDS TEXAS SHE WILL NOT STRENGTHEN THE WATER TEMPS ARE AROUND 82 IN THAT AREA OF THE GULF PLUS SHE WOULD MISS THE GULF STREAM...ALSO SHE WILL ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH MIGHT WEAKEN HER FURTHER...


-The ENTIRE forum saw a high to the north of Emily the whole time...Emily was very easy to track beause of it..
Wow...look at the size of Chanchu's outer eye!!

Here is an interresting article on msnbc.com

Hot towers above are a sign of stronger winds below

Hot plumes that tower above some hurricanes presage stronger winds at the surface, NASA researchers said Tuesday.

EMILY WILL STRENGTEN TO A CATEGORY 5

Well, he got that part right - Emily was upgraded to a Category 5 in the post season report.
104. Alec
Michael, ST thought Emily would be a cat 4 in the Gulf, when clearly it didn't have enough time to develop so rapidly...
Yeah, and look how tiny her inner eye is!
106. Alec
Hey GPTGUY, your favorite buoy is updated!lol
Chanchu looks just like Wilma during its EWRC.
yessss!!! thanks alec lol
Micheal, thanks for posting the link to the first blog.
atmosweather...'friggin', not sure, is that an oscenity? I may need to flag that.
Flag it if you wish. I was trying to be as mild as possible, I'm just exceptionally annoyed at this and many other things that have happened today.
112. Alec
friggin isnt obscene franck....sounds just as it is..
Please. You cannot be serious franck!..LOL
Hey man, I was trying to be funny. Yes, the main convection just keeps slipping south. There will be more though. Suddenly there is moisture all around the Gulf.
115. Alec
bob? You on vacation?lol How's the weather? Any rain?lol
116. Alec
LOL franck.....HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!that's what I call funny!
Friggin's cool by me. Can we say shaggin as well? Guess there's no context here.
Ha Ha!! Yes, on alittle hiatus! Been here and there..LOL No rain here. Not coming either. Have to wait another week! Oh well:(
119. Alec
new SST anomaly maps:
a href="http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/dat
a/anomnight.5.17.2005.gif" target="_blank">2005 SST anomalies for May 17
2006 SST anomalies for May 16
Could someone PLEASE send central Florida some rain? Is it that much to ask? I'm so desperate, everything is dying and there are fires everywhere.
hey alec sst seem to be coming down a lil bit water off Tampa is only about a half a degree cooler than SSE of Biloxi...guess it was that low moving across Florida upwelling the cooler water
Is there any place that will tell you the average temperature of the Atlantic (that would be the best way to compare, rather than comparing warmer and colder areas)?
124. Alec
sorry Rich....that STUPID Gulf system decided to rain mostly in the straits(like the ocean needs rain..arggg) And that other dumb system in the Great Lakes have flooded out the NE!
I don't know of any maps that do that Michael, but that would be very helpful.
126. Alec
Yes GPTGUY...the waters have cooled temporarily(some upwelling but mostly our front that has caused us to remain below normal).....but temps are on the rise soon!
Atlantic SST steadily increasing. I think that is what Accuweather/Bastardi is basing the Atlantic high risk storm potential on more than anything else. Just as a normal progression it looks like well over 80 degree water off New York by August.
Personally, I have no problem with language, and 'friggin' is hardly objectionable.

The 'hot tower' thing is just overshooting cloud tops...been there, done that.
129. Alec
The one really bad thing is if most storms this yr get diverted up the east coast or up the Atlantic and leave the Gulf untouched for months then when one enters the Gulf..look out!!!
Oh, BTW, the JTWC's purpose is to provide the navy with accurate cyclone avoidance stuff.
Did you see that guy Bastardi on CNN. Is he animated or what? If a big storm were to hit the upper northeast coast this season he would become the weather God/hero/darling of the media.
No, I don't either Colby. I was making light. Somebody in here last week called me down for 'dammit', I think it was Mr. Dobson. An expletive now and then doesn't bother me. At times it's needed for emphasis. Guess we would have some real toilet mouths in here if it weren't for people like Dobson policing though.
133. Alec
no didnt see CNN franck, but I dont approve(disagree) of accuweather telling certain regions that are low risk, medium risk...etc..we better ALL be prepared because accuweather has been wrong about these predictions last yr(Bastardi said the mid Atlantic would spell big trouble, but it was the Gulf Coast....they also said to expect 5 or 7 billion worth of damage...sad to say, multiply that by 20...)
What Was The Nickname Bloggers Had For Bastardi Last Year??

Joe "Head-For-The-Hills" Bastardi??!! LOL

Predict Catastrophic Storms Long Enough,
& Eventually Be Right???
Question for anyone who can answer! Wasn't this front approaching SFL supposed to stall out? And low pressure ride up the stalled front?
136. Alec
yeah pulse....low pressure decided the sea needed more rain than poor FL:(

Have a great afternoon guys:) Gotta go do stuff...
Speaking of the low risk thing. Of course the headline in our local paper today says we will be sparred this year..LOL That is what drives me crazy!!
i like to say sorry to evere one from last nigtht
Don't worry about it David, you did nothing wrong.
ok i hop evere one not mad at me
"Somebody in here last week called me down for 'dammit', I think it was Mr. Dobson...we would have some real toilet mouths in here if it weren't for people like Dobson policing though"

you obviously don't know me then...i have never flagged any post on these blogs for any reason. and i would never flag anything for obscenity. considering that you have absolutely no reason to suspect me, i do wonder why you decided that it was me doing it?

i usually don't swear myself on this board b/c it's not appropriate here, but check out the funkbus board if you think i'm some kind of language-policing prude.

funkbus sports board
Oh I'm sorry then. I'm not sure who it was. I'll take a look back and correct it.. No offense.
No offense taken....

I have been accused of many things in my life, but never before been accused of being profanity police...if anything my language is usually too salty. You stupid c*&^@#$%^$r....
Posted By: STORMTOP at 5:45 PM GMT on May 15, 2006
...i can assure you this will not develop...you need to start watching the gulf for real after may 23...THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN FROM THE STORMTOPS WEATHER SERVICE.001253


Interesting comment by StormTop because this morning my Houston/Galveston NWS office alludes to an easterly wave in the gulf somewhere around this time...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHOULD BE AN EXTENDED QUIET/DRY PERIOD FOR SE TX WITH TEMPS CLIMB-
ING TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER HERE...
THIS WARM/DRY WX WILL BE CONTINUING. THIS TREND MAY BE EXACERBATED
SOMEWHAT BY THE (PROGGED) APPROACH OF AN ELY WAVE TOWARD THE LOWER
TX COAST.
41

I checked the GFS and MRF runs3 and both indicate a tropical wave of sorts in the southern Gulf of Mexico around May 23rd.

StormTop I know you say you don't believe in computer models but are sure you don't occasionally cheat and take a sneak peak at the extended range forecast models... :)



No Luckytaco..you're cool mang. We're just upset because Florida is still pretty dry, and it's the prettiest state!
oh i see rain rain i hoping for rain for FL waht send them some rain rain rain
Wow, there must have been an awesome storm in Nevada yesterday. Look at the wind measurement.

2341 424 WINNEMUCCA HUMBOLDT NV 4097 11773 (LKN)

Is this a record?
The sub-tropical storm of 2004 was named Nicole. I don't know why they have it listed as unnamed.

Here is a link to the NHC archive of 2004 storms.
Just ignore/spam those who are so much into their own ego that they need an Ego Wide Replacement Cycle.
We do need the rain here in Florida and I wish we were getting more. At least with this slow almost drizzle the wateris finding time to soak in the ground before running off. I've been noticing some of the slash pines around here falling over from the brief burst of heavy rain and wind we had last week. After two years of hurricanes I thought most of the weak trees would be down, maybe I'll be proven wrong soon.

Off topic disclaimer: Following is off topic, but I can't just let anyone get away with saying Florida is the prettiest state when it's a fact California has it beat by a wide margin!
Wow, there must have been an awesome storm in Nevada yesterday. Look at the wind measurement.

2341 424 WINNEMUCCA HUMBOLDT NV 4097 11773 (LKN)

Is this a record?



I think that they meant to use 42.4 mph, but they don't use decimal places (like with hail; 275 means 2.75 inches). I once saw something like 700 mph listed before, but that is impossible (it was later fixed and replaced with something around 70).
I don't think they list winds lower than 55 mph (the minimum wind speed needed to classify a storm as severe).
Correction,

Severe thunderstorms are defined in the United States as having either tornadoes, gusts at least 58 mph, or hail at least 3/4 inch in diameter.
hi all how you like my new new new id this is the last one i am going to do
How many id's do you have David?
Sometimes, they don't even issue warnings when penny sized hail is possible (they issue a Special Weather Statement, but no warnings); possibly this is because it is only a marginal threat.
: louastu this would be the last one for goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooood
I personally don't care how many you make. I just want to know how many you have now.
hmm i think may be 30 or 35 ids now that i did not like to march
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 8:29 PM CDT on May 16, 2006.
Sometimes, they don't even issue warnings when penny sized hail is possible (they issue a Special Weather Statement, but no warnings); possibly this is because it is only a marginal threat.

That is a possibility. It is also possible that, since hail size is generally estimated by doppler radar, that the combination of rain, and hail smaller than penny size, could cause uncertainty, which might make them issue only an advisory, stating that hail up to penny size is possible.
Wow, that is a lot of id's.
Hurriphon, as a Florida resident, I have to agree. Florida is hardly ugly, but I spent some time in Chicago and the great lakes area, and it's just stunning.

By the way, does anyone know of a plant that looks like a big (roughly hemispheric, 5 ft radius) cactus bush that suddenly grows a 10-12 foot asparagus-looking stalk out of it? 'Cause my neighbor has one. Weird.
Actually, I think that David has about 10 IDs (by the way, he apparantly has a lot of email addresses; as he said that he needs a different address for each ID).

I know that these are some of them:

8888888889gg
KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
DavidKRZW
Spike2
Blizzards
BlizzardBlizzard
TheLuckyTacoBlizzard
Taco2me65
SuperTyphoon (his current ID, but for how long?)

There are several others as well that I forgot.
Is this the plant you are talking about Colby?

Titan Arum
Michael, I have to watch you ongoing now to see how much more data you find with directory hunting..lol..I look forward to the finds...
I think it's a Century Plant...
Here's a link,
Link
Yes it does sound like that it is a Century Plant and the one that I saw here in Mobile was as tall as 21 feet... But I thought it was ugly but each there own...


Taco:0)
hi taco2me61 how are you


come vote on my blog for my id
Your Killing me David.....LOL You change your name as much as I change woman...LOL



Taco:0)
taco2me61 heheheh come by and see me and we can talk
Chanchu is basically going to be dead (as a tropical cyclone) when it makes landfall:

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.3N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

That is before landfall.

Forecast map (click for full size image):

Praises Mother Nature for sparing humanity. Curses Mother Nature for the colossal fizz-out.
It was the century plant. Weird.
175. Inyo
Century plant is a neat plant, a similar plant is the agave that tequila is made out of.. and other similar plants include yucca and joshua trees.

everyone likes to yell at stormtop.. but i cant help but wonder why anyone takes him seriously in the first place. he's the new cyclome buster, or maybe they are the same person.

We had some tiny cumulus buildups over the mountains today.. one of them tried to bolt and do something but it got nailed by dry air or something and fell apart before the top could freeze. Looks like nevada had some good storms though, I wish i could have seen them.
All right I got one right! My wife will be so proud of me :)

There was a Century Plant in a cactus garden on a side street where I grew up.. About once every 7 years it grew the tall stock and bloomed... I was always watching for it :)
Stay away from these plants.
Good day People...

Chanchu is still there...but...

Makani turning to visit Hawaii...

Link
take a look south west Caribbean sea
rxse7en, that was gross.
Humorous, but gross. :)
Looks interesting weather.. Time will tell if it will develop.
It looks downright blobby - in his blog weatherguy03 is suggesting (and I concur) that we keep an eye on this area over the next few days as the front washes out and maybe starts to come north again.