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Northeast Braces for a Frigid, Windy Weekend

By: Bob Henson 6:04 PM GMT on February 10, 2016

A quick but intense shot of blustery cold will sweep across the northeast U.S. this weekend, reminiscent of the “polar vortex” outbreaks from the last two winters. Compared to the multi-day blasts of cold that were common in early 2014 and 2015, this will be more of a glancing blow, but stout breezes will push wind chills far below zero in many areas.


Figure 1. Surface air temperatures in °F predicted by the 12Z Wednesday run of the GFS model for 7:00 pm ET on Saturday, February 13, 2016. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

The brief blast of Arctic chill is partially an offshoot of rapid changes in the Arctic stratosphere. Temperatures there shot up to near-record highs this week, scrunching the stratospheric polar vortex toward Europe. An equally quick cool-down is expected over the next week or two, which should allow the vortex to shift toward its more typical position centered near the North Pole. Meanwhile, the flow at lower levels will remain northerly from polar regions into the eastern United States, and a sprawling surface high will push from the Canadian Arctic all the way into the U.S. Northeast by the weekend.


Figure 2. Wundermap depiction of wind speeds at the 250-mb jet-stream level (about 34,000 feet above sea level) at 06Z (1:00 am EST) Wednesday, February 10, 2016. Winds are shown in knots; multiply by 1.15 for miles per hour.

Basking in February warmth
Another player is the strong upper-level ridge that’s forcing the jet stream from the eastern Pacific to split before it reaches the coast. This ridge--more akin to the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of the last several winters than to a classic El Niño pattern--has brought sunshine and extremely mild weather throughout the U.S. West, shutting down winter rainfall. Temperatures on Tuesday soared to 85°F at Monterey, California, and into the 90°F range across the Los Angeles area. Santa Ana’s toasty high of 95°F tied its monthly record for February.

In Washington state, upper-level readings were the warmest for February in more than 60 years of recordkeeping (see Figure 3). The mildness at elevation led to “one of the strongest inversions I have ever seen here in Seattle,” said longtime resident Cliff Mass (University of Washington) in his weather blog. It was a full 23°F warmer just 1640 feet above Seattle (less than the height of the world’s tallest skyscrapers) than in the city itself. Sea-Tac Airport ended up setting a record high of 63°F, but just by one degree.


Figure 3. The view from atop Seattle’s Space Needle on Tuesday morning, February 9, 2016, showing the fogged-in city overtopped by sunny, milder air. Image credit: Space Needle Cam, courtesy Cliff Mass.


Figure 4. Since 1948, radiosondes have measured temperature at upper levels of the atmosphere. Shown here are daily readings at the 850-mb level (about a mile above ground) for Quillayute, WA, near Seattle. Record highs and lows for each date are shown by red and blue traces respectively. The temperature of 16.6°C (61.9°F), recorded at 12Z Tuesday, February 9, 2016, and shown in the black dot, was the warmest observed above Quillayute for any February or March day on record. At the surface, Quillayute’s high of 73°F on Tuesday tied the record high for February, in data going back to 1966. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center and Cliff Mass.

Record cold aloft on its way--but at the surface, not so much
This weekend is likely to see some of the coldest air ever observed aloft over the Northeast in the 60-plus-year period with radiosonde data available (beginning in 1948). Temperatures at the 850-mb level, about a mile above ground, are projected to tumble by Saturday to readings as low as -32°C above Buffalo, NY, and -30°C over Burlington, VT, with even colder readings possible over the Adirondacks (see Figure 5). The Buffalo temperature at 850 mb would be on par with the all-time low from the radiosonde dataset.

But the surface air mass cascading southward from Canada doesn’t fully mirror the coldness that’s present higher up, and it won’t be strong enough or long-lasting enough to allow surface temperatures to plummet as they otherwise might. While it’ll be unquestionably frigid this weekend in the Northeast, there will be few if any monthly record lows at the surface, and even daily record lows may be hard to come by. For example, at Burlington, VT, the current WU-predicted high of 3°F on Saturday and low of -8°F on Saturday night would fall well short of the record low maximum for Saturday (-3°F, from 1979) and the record low for Sunday morning (-19°F, from 1987). Compare this to last week in Burlington, when record daily highs were set on four consecutive days (Feb. 1 through 4). Of course, those highs—which included 54°F on Feb. 3 and 4--were far more pleasant and less extreme-feeling than what Burlington will experience this weekend.


Figure 5. As shown by this Wundermap, temperatures at the 850-mb level (about a mile above ground) projected by the 06Z Wednesday run of the GFS model will be close to the lowest ever observed by radiosonde across parts of the Northeast. The yellow region over the Adirondacks corresponds to predicted values colder than -34°C (-29°F) about a mile above sea level at 10:00 pm EST Saturday, February 12, 2016.

A teeth-chattering flashback
Like the strong ridge in the West, this weekend’s cold pattern in the Northeast will serve as a brief echo of the last several winters. In early 2015, recurrent upper-level troughs and back-to-back-to-back snowfall led to weeks of misery in Boston and gave New York and Vermont their coldest January-to-March period on record. Still, the readings that winter weren’t so much brutally low as consistently low.

“In Boston, we haven’t seen a temp colder than -3°F since 2004 (when we hit -7F),” noted weathercaster Eric Fisher (WBZ/WSBK). “The coldest we could manage last winter was -3°F, and we didn’t set a single daily record low. The cold was more of the extremely persistent kind than the one-off shocking variety.” Fisher added that Boston has seen only nine subzero nights in the last 20 years. The latest WU forecast brings Boston down to –4°F by Sunday morning.

Wind chills will add to the impact of this weekend’s fierce cold, especially in the wake of what’s been a quite mild winter overall. Wind chill readings in the range of -10°F to -20°F may spread across the Boston area on Saturday night. The windiness is a hint that this frigid air mass isn’t planning to hang around for long. By Monday, return flow from the south will be putting a significant dent in the cold. Temperatures will be back to near the seasonal average by Tuesday, but still cold enough to pose a potential winter weather hazard as low pressure organizes near the mid-Atlantic coast early next week. The brunt of this nor’easter may end up offshore, but as with several recent storms, coastal areas could easily get slapped with heavy, windblown snow--or heavy rain, if temperatures recover quickly enough. Freezing rain and/or sleet may also become a concern over the mid-South if enough mild air is wrapped around the developing nor’easter. Models are still struggling with this storm, but it’s certainly one to watch.


Figure 6. The expected Northeast cold stands out amid unusually warm temperatures almost everywhere else in this hemispheric map of projected surface temperatures relative to seasonal averages at 03Z Sunday, February 14, 2016 (10:00 pm EST Saturday). The map is based on the 18Z Wednesday run of the GFS model. Image credit: Climate Reanalyzer/University of Maine.

More to come?
Long-range forecasters are debating whether the Northeast is likely to see many more rounds of intense cold this winter. Judah Cohen (AER) expects relatively cold readings to predominate from late February into March across the midlatitudes of North America and Eurasia. “The perturbation of the [polar vortex] is likely to dominate the evolution of the temperature variability across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for the duration of winter,” said Cohen in a February 8 blog post.

This outlook would be in line with the tendency in recent years toward intense winter cold outbreaks in northern midlatitudes, including the northeast U.S.--a development that Cohen and others have associated with depleted Arctic sea ice. However, it would run counter to the typical outcome during strong El Niños of relative mildness across the northern U.S. and Canada. WU blogger Steve Gregory sees the El Niño signal returning full force within a few days, perhaps assisted by a favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. “While it is still far from a certainty, we should see a return to above normal temps in the east and below normal in the west, along with increased chances of precip along the west coast in about 10 days,” Gregory said in a Monday blog post.

We’ll have our next post by Thursday evening.

Bob Henson

Extreme Weather Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Had a nice hot bowl of tortilla soup this afternoon.The sun is deceiving people today as it looks warm but then you get blasted by winds an cold.
The Wacky Ways of the Jet Stream continue.


2016 is going to be a wild ride.

Strap in.


You had to do it after that long image post about the Atlantic SST!?
Will be very interested to see how this cold snap holds together next week. Right now the forecast is back up into the 50's, which would doom any potential snow storm.
Great breakdown of all the relative factors to this pending cold event and related climatology; here is the current relative position of the Conus jet per GFS and relative movement in between the lows and highs:


Main link still doesn't work.
You clearly see the image of a Tigers face in the WV loop below: the two eyes in each upper corner, the nose over the mid-west, and the mouth over the Gulf of Mexico..................................Here is the still image........... :)

Quoting 7. weathermanwannabe:

You clearly see the image of a Tigers face in the WV loop below: the two eyes in each upper corner, the nose over the mid-west, and the mouth over the Gulf of Mexico..................................Here is the still image........... :)




You can also see an image of a ram.

Quoting 8. rmbjoe1954:



You can also see an image of a ram.
Or a very hairy cat........................
It's 58 degrees in Fort Pierce . Tonight the temperature will drop to 39 degrees. This will be the coldest night this winter for the Treasure Coast.
Quoting 9. weathermanwannabe:


Or a very hairy cat........................
Quoting 8. rmbjoe1954:



You can also see an image of a ram.


Maybe its just my mind thinking negatively.......
Quoting 12. washingtonian115:



Maybe its just my mind thinking negatively.......


lol
I don't think we will break any records in central NC, though the low maximum will be close on Sunday. Forecast is for lows in the lower teens and highs in the upper 20's. 1899 was a cold winter!

Raleigh NC record low
02/13 4 1899
02/14 -2 1899

record low max
02/13 10 1899
02/14 27 1916

Great Blizzard of 1899 (from wiki)
On February 12, snow started falling from Fort Myers and Tampa in Florida west towards New Orleans. Blizzard conditions were reported north of Tampa along the west coast of Florida due to ocean-effect snow. The storm crossed the Florida peninsula and intensified as it rapidly moved up the Eastern United States. High Point, North Carolina, recorded 10-12 inches of snow, and temperatures as low as 10 % on February 11, 5 % on February 13, and 3 % on February 14. It was said to be the coldest weather known to the oldest inhabitants. Washington, D.C., recorded a single snowfall of 20.5 inches (52 cm), which was a record for the time.

Thanks for the update Mr Henson.

This looks like a great setup for a lake effect snowsquall event for me, the entire fetch of Lake Huron is wide open.
Geez. Coldest February weather since LAST FEBRUARY!


Gonna have to bring in the orange tree tonight and keep it in for the next few nights.

Rather than the polar vortex, I prefer to call an outbreak like this the "Boreal Fist". Hopefully
a single blow rather than multiple poundings as happened other winters and desipite sarcasm, last February
was remarkably cold in the Mid Atlantic!

I grew up playing ice hockey on the neighborhood lake each Winter when I lived in the Washington D.C. area. The lake would be crowded with people skating at times during the Winter.

Anyone that's currently living in the D.C. area right now how often can you play ice hockey on the area lakes? Or how much of this Winter have you been able to get out on the ice? I'm curious.
All these cold winters on the east coast of the USA when the rest of the globe is usually warmer than average.

I wonder if the persistent cold spot in the North Atlantic has a lot to do with it?

Yesterday was 60.5F/85.1F here normal is 67/44 currently 77.8F (12:09PST)
Quoting 18. Wacahootaman:

All these cold winters on the east coast of the USA when the rest of the globe is usually warmer than average.

I wonder if the persistent cold spot in the North Atlantic has a lot to do with it?


Typically we see lifting of the jet stream over the eastern Pacific along with the plunging of the jet stream over Canada into the eastern U.S.
I had wondered if the unusual warming of the Pacific and the weather patterns in the eastern Pacific are helping to continue this pattern.
Quoting 17. Sfloridacat5:

I grew up playing ice hockey on the neighborhood lake each Winter when I lived in the Washington D.C. area. The lake would be crowded with people skating at times during the Winter.

Anyone that's currently living in the D.C. area right now how often can you play ice hockey on the area lakes? Or how much of this Winter have you been able to get out on the ice? I'm curious.


Zero days of skatable ice on any local body of water this year.
Ice was skatable last year for a period in January and for the last half of February. Most years now we no
longer get skatable ice.



IF WE ARE GOING TO SUFFER THROUGH THIS AWFUL COLD SNAP, I SURE HOPE IT STAYS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SNOW NEXT WEEK IN COASTAL SC
Quoting 18. Wacahootaman:

All these cold winters on the east coast of the USA when the rest of the globe is usually warmer than average.

I wonder if the persistent cold spot in the North Atlantic has a lot to do with it?



Warming in the midlatitude pacific is more likely driving it. This forces the classic Western Ridge, Eastern Trough pattern that taps any arctic air in Canada or Siberia and brings it here to Eastern U.S. Decades with positive PDO are both warmer and more variable with more arctic outbreaks.. like now.

Quoting 22. FyrtleMyrtle:

IF WE ARE GOING TO SUFFER THROUGH THIS AWFUL COLD SNAP, I SURE HOPE IT STAYS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SNOW NEXT WEEK IN COASTAL SC


Current GFS has a tremendous warmup for the East next week after Tuesday.
Quoting 11. 62901IL:




1/2" of snow. That's better than nothing. But I know you're really hoping you get a good one some time this Winter.
Quoting 9. weathermanwannabe:


Or a very hairy cat........................


You can look at clouds from both sides now!
Euro Parallel replaces the Operational Euro on March 8th.
Quoting 18. Wacahootaman:

All these cold winters on the east coast of the USA when the rest of the globe is usually warmer than average.

I wonder if the persistent cold spot in the North Atlantic has a lot to do with it?


Actually it's been above average overall for most areas in the east this winter sans a few brief periods of below normal temperatures.

Locally I've been enjoying the cooler spells in NE FL. I could do without the gusty winds of the past 3 days however since I don't have much winter clothing and the winds make it quite nippy.
Quoting 28. StAugustineFL:



Actually it's been above average overall for most areas in the east this winter sans a few brief periods of below normal temperatures.

Locally I've been enjoying the cooler spells in NE FL. I could do without the gusty winds of the past 3 days however since I don't have much winter clothing and the winds make it quite nippy.


Haven't had a freeze in Orlando since I believe 2011.
Calling for measurable snow this Friday here in Central Illinois .. never like when that is the forecast ..

We could get anything from a few inches to a blizzard ..
Quoting 29. StormTrackerScott:



Haven't had a freeze in Orlando since I believe 2011.


The northern and western Orlando suburbs may make it tonight but could fall a few degrees short. I'm forecast for 30 which would be the chilliest night of the winter if it materializes (had 32 on the nose 2-3 occasions). I was forecast for 32 last night but it only fell to 37.


Quoting 8. rmbjoe1954:
You can also see an image of a ram.


It's the Kraken's Father,

The GFS 12z Parallel has an I-95 special. Heavy snow up and down the I-96 corridor. Interesting comprise between the GFS OP and the ECMWF.

Quoting 31. whitewabit:

Calling for measurable snow this Friday here in Central Illinois .. never like when that is the forecast ..

We could get anything from a few inches to a blizzard ..


Looks like you'll be lucky (or unlucky) to see any flakes based on ones perspective according to the NWS. Maybe a greater threat over the weekend??

NWS Washington, IL forecast

Quoting 34. Drakoen:

The GFS 12z Parallel has an I-95 special. Heavy snow up and down the I-96 corridor. Interesting comprise between the GFS OP and the ECMWF.


Euro starts off as snow and then turns into rain.We'll see if it moves the low more east with time.I think it may be underestimating the arctic high that will be in place.
I'm sure those 20F plus above Normal Avg Temps are just a "phase" Greenland and Alaska will see.

Yeah, dats gotta be it.

Quoting 27. StormTrackerScott:

Euro Parallel replaces the Operational Euro on March 8th.
I + your comment but i don't understand what it means.
Quoting 33. Patrap:





It's the Kraken's Father,




looks more like the head of a Snake......
Quoting 21. georgevandenberghe:



Zero days of skatable ice on any local body of water this year.
Ice was skatable last year for a period in January and for the last half of February. Most years now we no
longer get skatable ice.






One Winter we were able to ice skate on the Potomac River. This was just south of Washington D.C. down in the Mount Vernon area. Skating on the Potomac was quite rare (and dangerous) because of the current and the tides. What was cool was that we would have to walk down the boat dock to get out on the ice during low tide. Then we could just walk off the ice onto the land during high tide because the ice had risen about 3 feet or so.
Ha and what do you know,the NWS agrees.It sees the Euro eroding the arctic high to fast

THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
ARCTIC AIRMASSES OF THIS CALIBER RARELY GO QUIETLY.

I'm sure those 20F below normal for the entire eastern US are just a phase too.
Quoting 41. washingtonian115:

Ha and what do you know,the NWS agrees.It sees the Euro eroding the arctic high to fast

THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
ARCTIC AIRMASSES OF THIS CALIBER RARELY GO QUIETLY.


It would be hard to think intense cold air would go just like that, and not linger for some time more.
Quoting 37. Patrap:

I'm sure those 20F plus above Normal Avg Temps are just a "phase" Greenland and Alaska will see.

Yeah, dats gotta be it.



Yes that's got to be it Pat, 35F above normal in Siberia is probably just a passing phase. I'm sure we'll get used to this kind of thing in a few more winters.
Splendid images on this blog.

Oh a note on the 18 meter, 60 foot waves in the eastern north Atlantic. They seem to have passed for the while now leaving some spectacular sea wall damage in northern Spain to say the least. Next big storm in a couple of days coming along.
18z GFS clearly shows the the Feb 15-16 storm in its run.
Quoting 46. Climate175:

18z GFS clearly shows the the Feb 15-16 storm in its run.


Yes, hopefully it doesn't trend anymore west. Very precarious situation for DC. If this system came in farther north or west we would be in rain.
Quoting 38. Gearsts:

I your comment but i don't understand what it means.
The ECMWF has been running an independent model alongside the operational model for about 10 years, hence the "parallel" name. It has been used to test improvements (or what were thought to be improvements) in the operational model without disturbing the run of the main model used in forecasting. The improvements have now been deemed significant enough that the parallel model will replace the current operational model on March 8 and become the new operational model. The ECMWF will start up a new parallel model as soon as there are improvements to test. The ECMWF's massive increase in computer capacity over the past year now allows this kind of testing without taking any processing time away from the main model.
The run shows about 10-12 inches, with a sharp cutoff to the southeast.
Quoting 10. rmbjoe1954:

It's 58 degrees in Fort Pierce . Tonight the temperature will drop to 39 degrees. This will be the coldest night this winter for the Treasure Coast.


Boohoo, it's 39 where I am right now :p
Hi all from Europe. After a busy day I'm actually too tired for a long weather post, but when I spotted the new portrait of Doc and Bob, I of course had to appreciate this effort with an extra "plus", lol.



And thanks for the new entry as well, Bob.

In respect to our latest European storms esp. wild Susanna yesterday: As usual it's hard to get a summary. What I've read: some damage in parts of France and Germany, some injuries in France and sadly one death in southwestern Germany due to a fallen tree. Moreover flooding and high waters, esp. with river Moselle.

Because I had to work today I unfortunately missed in real time a tiny cyclone in the northernmost part of the Adriatic Sea/Mediterranean. Here the bigger picture (cyclone on the upper side) and here a close up (thanks to SevereWeatherEurope); easy to spot the eye:



This feature brought very strong winds and a storm surge to the coast of Croatia. Here a video with some impressive still shots from Rovinji, near the area of landfall:



And here a short video of the waves:


Hope our European weather will be boring the next days as I've got few time (999 may fill in). Anyway wish you fun with the visit of the polar vortex in the eastern US and the heat from the oven in the Southwest, umm. Weird weather currently for sure!

Quoting 32. StAugustineFL:



The northern and western Orlando suburbs may make it tonight but could fall a few degrees short. I'm forecast for 30 which would be the chilliest night of the winter if it materializes (had 32 on the nose 2-3 occasions). I was forecast for 32 last night but it only fell to 37.
Very chilly up here this morning with a low of 24. That cold air migrating in the direction of Orlando might be enough to take the temperature just below freezing. Part of that is dependent on if the wind calms down. I've still been having 20-25 mph gusts all day here with no sign of it calming down yet. The low relative humidity has been 21%, enough for me to feel like armies of very dry soldiers have been marching around in my head. The high was only 49, and the wind made it feel much colder. The models for Sunday and Monday are still not converging on a solution yet. The only real change was a slight warming for both the Euro and GFS. Still far too much uncertainty to make a good guess about how cold it will be and what types of precipitation we will get.
What's you guys opinion on the winter set up next week for the south? I personally hope that somehow the southern parts of the southern states will get in the mix with snow, sleet, ice..
Hi Sar, down here in Andalusia the high for today was 49 as well. Very windy raw day. It is dry as a bone out there..current relative humidity of 27%. Overall it was a fairly nice day though.
Quoting 52. sar2401:

Very chilly up here this morning with a low of 24. That cold air migrating in the direction of Orlando might be enough to take the temperature just below freezing. Part of that is dependent on if the wind calms down. I've still been having 20-25 mph gusts all day here with no sign of it calming down yet. The low relative humidity has been 21%, enough for me to feel like armies of very dry soldiers have been marching around in my head. The high was only 49, and the wind made it feel much colder. The models for Sunday and Monday are still not converging on a solution yet. The only real change was a slight warming for both the Euro and GFS. Still far too much uncertainty to make a good guess about how cold it will be and what types of precipitation we will get.
Hit 85F in Orange County, CA. today due to adiabatic heating from the Santa Ana winds. We have had some reduction of Santa Ana wind days this winter presumably due to the El Nino effect. I don't miss them as 50 MPH gusts are common in our area during the night. The winds were almost constant last January.
Quoting 51. barbamz:

Hi all from Europe. After a busy day I'm actually too tired for a long weather post, but when I spotted the new portrait of Doc and Bob, I of course had to appreciate this effort with an extra , lol.



And thanks for the new entry as well, Bob.

In respect to our latest European storms esp. wild Susanna yesterday: As usual it's hard to get a summary. What I've read: some damage in parts of France and Germany, some injuries in France and sadly one death in southwestern Germany due to a fallen tree. Moreover flooding and high waters, esp. with river Moselle.

Because I had to work today I unfortunately missed in real time a tiny cyclone in the northernmost part of the Adriatic Sea/Mediterranean. Here the bigger picture (cyclone on the upper side) and here a close up:



This feature brought very strong winds and a storm surge to the coast of Croatia. Here a video with some impressive still shots from Rovinji, near the area of landfall:



And here a short video of the waves:


Hope our European weather will be boring the next days as I've got few time (999 may fill in). Anyway wish you fun with the visit of the polar vortex in the eastern US and the heat from the oven in the Southwest, umm. Weird weather currently for sure!


We visited Istria when we were in Slovenia, since it's only about a two hour train ride south of Portoroz. It's part of what Slovenians call the "Costa Benton", or the Cement Coast, because there aren't any real beaches, just some concrete platforms extending a hundred feet or so into the sea from the resort hotels. The geography of the coast there is a series of bowls, and the water is fairly shallow. They get big storms in winter and summer, and the waves are often spectacular. Most of the old buildings right at the water's edge are built with blank first stories that are part of the seawall. It apparently worked well since many of the buildings go back to the mid-1700's. With the increase in tourism since the fall of Yugoslavia, some of the owners have opened up those lower stories for seaside cafes and bars. I imagine some of those building owners are regretting the changes to those structures today.
At last some drought news: first one is good, the others are really bad :-(

Brazil agricultural waterway reopens after 20-month drought -paper
Source: Reuters - Wed, 10 Feb 2016 03:48 GMT
... Rains at the end of 2015 intensified in January, helping water levels on rivers in Brazil's southeast and central-west to recover from one of the worst droughts in decades. ...

Persistent drought threatens millions with hunger in Haiti - U.N.
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Wed, 10 Feb 2016 15:30 GMT
Around 3.6 million people in Haiti are struggling to feed themselves as three consecutive years of drought have ruined harvests and raised food prices, worsening hunger among the poor, the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) has said. ...

UNDP raises $60 mln for food aid in drought-hit Zimbabwe
Source: Reuters - Wed, 10 Feb 2016 09:14 GMT
The United Nations Development Programme has raised $60 million for food aid in Zimbabwe and is feeding 1 million people as the country faces its worst drought in a quarter century, the agency's local head said on Wednesday. ...

Food aid to run out in Ethiopia unless donors step in, says charity
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Wed, 10 Feb 2016 00:01 GMT
Emergency food aid for 10 million Ethiopians hit by the worst drought in 50 years will run out in April unless donors provide more funds by the end of February, the charity Save the Children said on Wednesday. ...
Current conditions at
Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)
Lat: 34.01°NLon: -117.44°WElev: 833ft.


Partly Cloudy

88°F

31°C
Humidity 8%
Wind Speed VRBL 6 MPH
Barometer 30.09 in (1017.4 mb)
Dewpoint 20°F (-7°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 84°F (29°C)
Last update 10 Feb 1:53 pm PST

Now this is Dry and Hot too...
Quoting 54. Tcwx2:

Hi Sar, down here in Andalusia the high for today was 49 as well. Very windy raw day. It is dry as a bone out there..current relative humidity of 27%. Overall it was a fairly nice day though.
We drove to Columbus today for some shopping. The wind there was much stronger than down here. Judging by the flags standing straight out, the trees branches moving, and the way my car was moving around, I'd guess gusts of 35-40 mph. I don't know why the winds were so much stronger up there, but that often seems to be the case. It was also cooler, with a high of just 44. For only 50 miles north, the weather is a lot different sometimes. Nice sunny day overall though, with a deep blue sky.
I will be in it this weekend as the temperature is forecast to get as low as -8F here. I am on a hill and the valley is usually colder in the early morning, but we will see. Wind chill is worse up here, but I do not have an anemometer so I can't report on that one. I usually wake up pretty early and might do a couple live updates on the temps.
Quoting 58. PedleyCA:

Current conditions at
Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)
Lat: 34.01°NLon: -117.44°WElev: 833ft.


Partly Cloudy

88°F

31°C
Humidity 8%
Wind Speed VRBL 6 MPH
Barometer 30.09 in (1017.4 mb)
Dewpoint 20°F (-7°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 84°F (29°C)
Last update 10 Feb 1:53 pm PST

Now this is Dry and Hot too...


Holy dry!!!!
Quoting 53. Tcwx2:

What's you guys opinion on the winter set up next week for the south? I personally hope that somehow the southern parts of the southern states will get in the mix with snow, sleet, ice..
Well, the "southern parts of the southern states" is a big place. For us, as I wrote, the models are still too far apart to come up anything but a complete guess about precipitation types. One of the things to watch for is if we get a Georgia Wedge set up on Sunday night or Monday morning. That may dam up enough cold air for a better chance of frozen stuff.
This is the straightest cut off line I've ever seen on a model

Quoting 56. sar2401:

We visited Istria when we were in Slovenia, since it's only about a two hour train ride south of Portoroz. It's part of what Slovenians call the "Costa Benton", or the Cement Coast, because there aren't any real beaches, just some concrete platforms extending a hundred feet or so into the sea from the resort hotels. The geography of the coast there is a series of bowls, and the water is fairly shallow. They get big storms in winter and summer, and the waves are of spectacular. Most of the old buildings right at the water's edge are built with blank first stories that are part of the seawall. It apparently worked well since many of the buildings go back to the mid-1700's. With the increase in tourism since the fall of Yugoslavia, some of the owners have opened up those lower stories for seaside cafes and bars. I imagine some of those building owners are regretting the changes to those structures today.

Yes, this is what the coast over there is like. Had been to nearby Opatja some years ago. Coast is all rocks and stones, but this place with some old Austrian elegance got a several miles (12 km) long "lungomare" (promenade/footway along the coast) which is breathtaking beautiful, and the waters were cristal clear.


Photo of the promenade from German Wiki/Opatja. Good night, folks!
Agreed. At this point, you know we weather people are just dreaming of scenarios. We won't know what's going to happen until Saturday or maybe even the time of the event. (From your other quote) I'm surprised how windy it was up there, and colder too. Our forecast high for tomorrow and Friday is 70!!! Here comes the allergies!!
Quoting 62. sar2401:

Well, the "south parts of the southern states" is a big place. For us, as I wrote, the models are still too far apart to come up anything but a complete guess about precipitation types. One of the things to watch for is if we get a Georgia Wedge set up on Sunday night or Monday morning. That may dam up enough cold air for a better chance of frozen stuff.
Quoting 63. washingtonian115:

This is the straightest cut off line I've ever seen on a model




Yeah, and of course it would be right over the south side of Washington D.C.
Feb. 8, 2016
Intensifying Atlantic Storm Examined By NASA's GPM

As a low pressure area continued to intensify in the Atlantic Ocean off the United States' East Coast, NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement or GPM core satellite gathered information about the precipitation the storm was packing.

On Feb. 8, 2016, at 3 a.m. EST (0800 UTC) the GPM core observatory satellite flew above an intensifying storm. A rainfall analysis derived from data collected by GPM's Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instruments with this pass showed a large area of rainfall around the northwestern side of the storm. GPM's radar (DPR) measured rainfall in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Virginia coast falling at a rate of more than 25 mm (almost 1 inch) per hour.

A 3-D cross section that was derived from GPM's Radar (DPR Ku Band) data showed the area of moderate precipitation northwest of the intensifying storm's center of circulation.


On Feb. 8, 2016, at 3 a.m. EST the GPM core observatory satellite measured rainfall in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Virginia coast falling at a rate of over 25 mm (almost 1 inch) per hour.
Credits: NASA/JAXA/Hal Pierce

GPM is co-managed by both NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

At 2:50 a.m. EST on Feb. 8, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (NWS NPC) in College Park, Maryland, said, "A strong and impressive low pressure system will move northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. coastline today. The system will spread snow into portions of southern and eastern New England today, with the potential for heavy snow at times as far south as Long Island."

The heaviest snowfall is expected across eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod, where 8 to 12 inches of snow are possible, with localized amounts exceeding 15 inches. Snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected from the eastern half of Long Island northward across southeastern New England.

The low pressure area is also packing strong winds. NWS NPC said the low will generate winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts as high as 65 mph portions of southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the islands.

For more information about GPM, visit: www.nasa.gov/gpm

Hal Pierce
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
Our winter in Santa Fe seems to have disappeared. We'll be near 60º by the weekend and I've never seen 60 in February in 20 years.
71. SuzK
Quoting 39. PedleyCA:



looks more like the head of a Snake......


Cthulhu
Mount Marcy, the highest point in New York at 5,344 feet, will be -31 F with a 30 mph wind, with a wind chill of
- 69F on Saturday.  I have climbed it several times in summer, but I think I will take a pass this weekend.
Quoting 71. SuzK:



Cthulhu


I Googled that and found this: Cthulhu for President
Quoting 67. Patrap:


January CO2

January 2016: 402.52 ppm


January 2015: 399.96 ppm

Something else to get used too!
All we need now it to evolve a little and grow a few cabbage type leaves as appendage's, so as we can achieve photosynthesis. This would not only aid the relief of obesity by negating the need to eat so much but also would help to reduce the atmospheric CO2 attaining an acceptable balance.

Meanwhile I was thinking that with all these big storms we all seem to be getting, the amount of available land is being reduced by wave action reducing the land masses to sand and muddy water. Wait until the permafrost melt kicks in for another shock!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
452 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH REPLACING ATLANTIC WITH GULF...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH A STABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...SUBSIDING WINDS AND
HIGH PRESSURE CREATING GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...CREATING A CHALLENGE
TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER NIGHT. IF THERE ARE CIRRUS STREAKS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER NIGHT THAT COULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. BUT THERE WAS LITTLE SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FROM
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR REGIONS
ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREE RANGE. IN GENERAL THIS IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR AREAS OF FROST.
IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE
FROST ACROSS THESE AREAS. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES...LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE NAPLES AND PALM BEACH METRO
AREAS. THE BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND DECOUPLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND
WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON THE WIND CHILLS BUT WIND CHILLS IN THE
UPPER 30S ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH AND GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES.
GFS breaking my heart again.
Today

vs
Feb 8
Going to RI on the 26th.It will be my first visit to that state.It is almost the size of D.C but a tad bigger.
Good evening

Is the link to the blog no longer on the WU home page ??
Quirky little blog feature on the right hand side of my Chrome browser page. Under " Current Recent Posts" (below Dr. M and Mr. H's picture). Whoever has current top spot in the blog list has their last few blog titles listed as hyperlinks...but they all point back to the main blog.

This is a great feature...
;-]
Quoting 58. PedleyCA:

Current conditions at
Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)
Lat: 34.01°NLon: -117.44°WElev: 833ft.


Partly Cloudy

88°F

31°C
Humidity 8%
Wind Speed VRBL 6 MPH
Barometer 30.09 in (1017.4 mb)
Dewpoint 20°F (-7°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 84°F (29°C)
Last update 10 Feb 1:53 pm PST

Now this is Dry and Hot too...



Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.47°NLon: -84.23°WElev: 79ft.

Fair

35°F

2°C
Humidity 50%
Wind Speed SW 5 mph
Barometer 30.24 in (1024.0 mb)
Dewpoint 18°F (-8°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 31°F (-1°C)
Last update 10 Feb 7:53 pm EST


The dewpoint was 8 earlier here at 3 PM, 8 in Florida!
Quoting 79. kmanislander:

Good evening

Is the link to the blog no longer on the WU home page ??


Nope. Hopefully it will return.
WOW

150mph winds terrorize cruise ship passengers

Link


Link
Quoting 79. kmanislander:

Good evening

Is the link to the blog no longer on the WU home page ??


Hey long time no see
How is things up your side
Published on Jan 20, 2016

This video from NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) shows how Earth has warmed from 1880 through 2015, showing 5-year running averages through the period. Blue is cooler and red is hotter. The overall trend should be clear.






The old avi was deemed to distracting and so I had to get another one.When does the next GFS come out anyway?
Quoting 86. washingtonian115:

The old avi was deemed to distracting and so I had to get another one.When does the next GFS come out anyway?


Coming out as we speak
So far the GFS looks stronger with the clipper tracking through the Plains region. My suspicion is that this should prevent a cutter and keep the storm track farther south. We'll see as the model progresses.
GFS 00z would be snow to ice to heavy snow for D.C.


GFS has 12-16 inch storm for D.C.The cut off line is still close however it is getting the idea that the cold air won't go so quickly.
UKMET 00z has made a big shift towards the GFS.
Quoting 91. Drakoen:

UKMET 00z has made a big shift towards the GFS.
Battle of the models.lololol.Now we wait for the euro which I bet will still show a all rain event.
Quoting 91. Drakoen:

UKMET 00z has made a big shift towards the GFS.
What did the previous UKMET run show?
Quoting 93. Tornado6042008X:

What did the previous UKMET run show?


Cutter over the Apps
95. bwi
Bula! -- Greetings from fabulous Fiji (and surprisingly sunny New Zealand). I see we will be returning to an unsettled bit of weather along the eastern seaboard this weekend. Next year we may have to stay away for two months!

Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.49°NLon: -84.17°WElev: 79ft.

Fair

32°F

0°C
Humidity 69%
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 30.24 in (1024.0 mb)
Dewpoint 23°F (-5°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 11 Feb 12:53 am EST


The low was 27 here this morning, and with it already being 32, looks like the heater will be running extra tonight before the warming trend begins tomorrow. By Friday afternoon, highs will likely make the 70's. Winter in North Florida is funny.
Quoting 71. SuzK:



Cthulhu


It's getting to the point where Cthulu would be the sane choice. :P

Moose: Life of a Twig Eater
Full Episode
Premiere date: February 10, 2016 | 0:53:10 | Video expires March 11, 2016 | Buy the DVD

There is a growing problem in North America affecting moose, the largest species of the deer family. Whether they make their home in the Canadian Rockies or in Minnesota, moose populations are declining at a rapid rate. One reason is that many of the newborn calves are not surviving their first year. In order to find out why, one intrepid cameraman spends a year documenting the life of a moose calf and its mother to understand what it takes to survive.


Moose populations across North America have declined by 65% in the last 25 years. Several factors at work, all driven by climate change.
Quoting 97. Xyrus2000:



It's getting to the point where Cthulu would be the sane choice. :P
The duck recommends AFLAC!! :-)
Quoting 78. washingtonian115:

Going to RI on the 26th.It will be my first visit to that state.It is almost the size of D.C but a tad bigger.


Okanogan county in wasington state is larger than Conneticut, but only has a population of 42,000.
At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Tatiana, Category One (994 hPa) located at 16.9S 157.9E or 1030 km east northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS: 17.7S 158.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 18.9S 159.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.0S 161.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1) Out of Responsibility
72 HRS: 24.8S 161.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Location fix based primarily on animated visible imagery. Convection and curvature of the system has continued to improve during the day, however some evidence of northeast wind shear is still evident due to the more limited convection in the northeast quadrant. Dvorak analysis based on curved band pattern with an 0.6 wrap giving DT 3.0. MET supports. Final T 3.0.

Recent motion has been to the east southeast at about 8 knots, primarily under the influence of low level monsoon flow to the north, and a mid level shortwave trough to the south. The system is expected to curve to the southeast in the next 12 to 24 hours, as the shortwave trough to the south lifts out to the southeast, a second shortwave trough develops over eastern Queensland, and some indirect interaction with "Winston" (09F) east of Vanuatu develops, manifest as shortwave low to mid level ridging developing between the two systems.

The system remains in an environment marginally supportive of further development, ample ocean heat content, and moderate northerly vertical wind shear persisting for the next 24 hours or so. This should lead to at least modest further strengthening overnight into Friday. Following this, vertical shear is forecast to increase over the system as the second stronger shortwave trough over eastern Queensland spreads its influence over the system, which should lead to a weakening or at least a loss of tropical characteristics during Saturday.
Quoting 80. beell:

Quirky little blog feature on the right hand side of my Chrome browser page. Under " Current Recent Posts" (below Dr. M and Mr. H's picture). Whoever has current top spot in the blog list has their last few blog titles listed as hyperlinks...but they all point back to the main blog.

This is a great feature...
;-]


Yep, it's the same way for Firefox, it's not the browsers!
Hi everyone.
The Garonne river's overflowing in Bordeaux this morning, the 9th most populated French city:

Authorities do not expect the situation to become catastrophic (a watch is in effect) but we'll see what happens as additional rain is forecast in this region, and the next high tide tonight (around 9PM GMT, 10 PM local time) is going to be the real test (the city's close to the river's estuary). No reports of significant flood damage nor any evacuees for now. The last storm dumped lots of rain in this region.
First week of February's been much hotter than average in Europe :

Colder temps could make a comeback early next week in Western E, today it's near normal; but it's forecast to remain much hotter than normal in Eastern E.
- There are people and firemen busy cleaning fish off the streets in Croatia :-D, in the aftermath of the battering of the coast by huge waves (see quote in comment 56).
105. MahFL
34F here in Orange Park, no freeze, despite the freeze warning.
there is an algae bloom throughout the mosquito lagoon. thousands of jobs will be lost. read on the news it might last up to ten yrs.
Quoting 104. LargoFl:




Horrors!! I'm solidly in the hot pink. ...that would be a terrible ice storm.
http://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/until-1950-us- weathermen-were-forbidden-from-talking-about-torna dos?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=atlas-page

UNTIL 1950, U.S. WEATHERMEN WERE FORBIDDEN FROM TALKING ABOUT TORNADOS
Quoting 107. weesej:



Horrors!! I'm solidly in the hot pink. ...that would be a terrible ice storm.
yes this one if it verifies might be a bad one up there,and add in those cold temps whew.
Quoting 83. Tazmanian:

WOW

150mph winds terrorize cruise ship passengers

Link


Link
YAWN!! Boy are you ever behind the 8-ball!
GEOS-5 has been intensify that storm more with each run. Has it pretty far south.


It may very well get severe and have snow on the backside down into northern MS, AL & GA..


Shows a good punch to the Northeast as it pushes off the coast. The snow line is a tough call for Washington DC on this model too.. Overall for the Northeast has the snow more inland this storm.
For concerned/curious/bored people, thunderstorm watch in effect (see WU extreme wx map) around Croatia/Italia/Greece. And also at my blog with several pretty webcam views from there.
Quoting 105. MahFL:

34F here in Orange Park, no freeze, despite the freeze warning.


Local mets really missed the mark on overnight lows in the Tampa Bay area. Most locations were at least 5 degrees warmer than forecasted. One of the suburbs of Tampa was forecasted to get to 32, but was at 46 at 6:00 AM today, that's a pretty big miss. I'm not sure why temps were warmer than planned. There are light winds, low dew points, and clear skies, so if anything I would have expected temps to be lower than forecasted, not higher.
CFSv2 is the lone wolf predicting El-Nino this Fall. Very interesting as to why the CFSv2 is showing this and could score the coop here if this next WWB does indeed verify.



WWB
Quoting 116. tampabaymatt:



Local mets really missed the mark on overnight lows in the Tampa Bay area. Most locations were at least 5 degrees warmer than forecasted. One of the suburbs of Tampa was forecasted to get to 32, but was at 46 at 6:00 AM today, that's a pretty big miss. I'm not sure why temps were warmer than planned. There are light winds, low dew points, and clear skies, so if anything I would have expected temps to be lower than forecasted, not higher.


We got down to 41. I was expecting a few degrees colder. What was very interesting was to our north. Temps at 11:00 in our northern counties were already in the 30's seemingly headed to the upper 20's and at 6:00 this morning only one station reported 32. Very odd to me. We had clear skies and zero wind which is a perfect setup for a good radiation cooling event.
119. MahFL
Quoting 116. tampabaymatt:



Local mets really missed the mark on overnight lows in the Tampa Bay area. Most locations were at least 5 degrees warmer than forecasted. One of the suburbs of Tampa was forecasted to get to 32, but was at 46 at 6:00 AM today, that's a pretty big miss. I'm not sure why temps were warmer than planned. There are light winds, low dew points, and clear skies, so if anything I would have expected temps to be lower than forecasted, not higher.


To be fair the NWS did say inland area's, I am near to a big lake, we lived about 5 miles away for a while in a cold part of Orange Park ( Oakleaf) and it was a lot colder there.
little chilly this am in TO



Temperature:

-16.3°C

Dewpoint:

-20.7°C

Humidity:

69%

Wind:

NNW 19 km/h

Wind Chill:

-26


Temperature:

2.7°F

Dewpoint:

-5.3°F

Humidity:

69%

Wind:

NNW 12 mph

Wind Chill:

-14
Well this could be a problem...

Based on the GFS model from TropicalTidbits it looks like I'll mostly be under ice, while <10miles to the west they are looking at 8"+ of snow.
STS~ It's not the lone wolf.. NASA's GEOS-5 has trended that way. Latest run shows a dip through Neutral territory and then back to El Nino conditions. Kind of far out though. Long term ENSO model forecasts this time of year aren't all that. Trend hints at something though.

The February anomalies for GEOS-5 is out. Still dooming mid country for excessive rain in March ..red is excessive rain here. California rejoice & prepare for rain.. & more rain for FL.



Shorter term the rain should return there in a week..
Quoting 122. Skyepony:

STS~ It's not the lone wolf.. NASA's GEOS-5 has trended that way. Latest run shows a dip through Neutral territory and then back to El Nino conditions. Kind of far out though. Long term ENSO model forecasts this time of year aren't all that. Trend hints at something though.




If it were to materialize, wouldn't that be highly unusual for an El Niño to carry on for so long?
Good Morning. Chilly start to the am this morning in North Florida (around 30) but temps rebounding rather rapidly though tomorrow back to around 70 in the later afternoon. Here is the forecast and highs for Conus today:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Quoting 122. Skyepony:

STS~ It's not the lone wolf.. NASA's GEOS-5 has trended that way. Latest run shows a dip through Neutral territory and then back to El Nino conditions. Kind of far out though. Long term ENSO model forecasts this time of year aren't all that. Trend hints at something though.




Well see what happens the next few months because either the CFSv2 is out to lunch or its onto something that many other models haven't yet latched onto. The Euro and Poama models update next week and well see if they trended toward the CFS.
And finally the current jet and overall look:



Quoting 124. Bucsboltsfan:



If it were to materialize, wouldn't that be highly unusual for an El Nio to carry on for so long?

It was sort of highly unusual it got as strong as it did this year & the warmth last year didn't spread west like it should have, delaying the onset. Do you think what comes next will be completely usual?
Quoting 128. Skyepony:


It was sort of highly unusual it got as strong as it did this year & the warmth last year didn't spread west like it should have, delaying the onset. Do you think what comes next will be completely usual?


IDK, I'm not versed enough with el Niño's but I seem to recall that it extending for another year would not be the norm. But then again, what is normal?
Quoting 127. weathermanwannabe:

And finally the current jet and overall look:






Unfortunately that jet is totally missing Southern California. Look how dry it is.
Quoting 128. Skyepony:


It was sort of highly unusual it got as strong as it did this year & the warmth last year didn't spread west like it should have, delaying the onset. Do you think what comes next will be completely usual?


previously it didn't materialize due to a lack of westerly wind bursts........this year it had it in heaps

as for it's demise....nothing is ever certain in the world of weather...but i believe the fat lady is warming up.....from todays monthly ENSO discussion....

Most models indicate that El Niño will weaken, with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late
spring or early summer 2016 (Fig. 6). Thereafter, the chance of La Niña conditions increases into the fall.
While there is both model and physical support for La Niña following strong El Niño, considerable
uncertainty remains. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or
early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall (click CPC/IRI
consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)


i believe that many are confusing what they keep talking about when they mention "uncertainty"...it's not that enso will not transition...only that it is uncertain to transition to la nina
Quoting 126. StormTrackerScott:



Well see what happens the next few months because either the CFSv2 is out to lunch or its onto something that many other models haven't yet latched onto. The Euro and Poama models update next week and well see if they trended toward the CFS.


i alway believe it's best to look at what the experts look at....."the means"
Not much happening around these parts. Got a little pocket of snow yesterday morning that dropped maybe an inch. Just enough to stick to the ground. Looks like I'm right in the slot to get maybe a couple more inches by the end of the day if I'm reading the model correctly.
Third time's the charm? Probably not :[

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
EXTREMELY COLD AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SERVE AS A BAROCLINIC GRADIENT FOR A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG COAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS BOTH QPF AND PTYPE
ARE LESS THAN CONCRETE. STRONG PIECE OF VORT ENERGY (25 S-1) WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST...AND ASSIST IN
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. THE BEST PVA
OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN...CAUSING THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN PRETTY FAR
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND THUS ABUNDANT MOISTURE/QPF IS NOT FORECAST
FOR THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...BROAD SW FLOW ATOP THE WEDGE AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K AND 290K
SURFACES...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL COLUMN SATURATION AND PRECIP ONSET. IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING AT 7AM FRIDAY...BUT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD.

THIS LEADS TO A VERY INTERESTING FORECAST AS SURFACE TEMPS AND WET-
BULBS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...WARM NOSE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB 0C...BUT WITH THE INCREASING SW FLOW ATOP
THE WEDGE...900-800MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING
SO THAT BY LATE MORNING THE WARM NOSE IN EVEN THE COLDEST SPOTS
(NEAR LUMBERTON) WILL BE +2C...AND RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND OF COURSE...AND WITHIN THE
WEDGE EVEN THE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO FAST IN BRINGING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY NEAR I-95. BEFORE THE WARM NOSE
DEVELOPS...THERE REMAINS A STUBBORN DRY LAYER WITHIN THE
DGZ...MAKING IT UNLIKELY THAT ANY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PVA SATURATES THE COLUMN ABOVE
600MB...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH VIRGA TO MOISTEN THE DGZ WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS IN A `SEEDER-FEEDER` TYPE SETUP (THANKS TO WFO
RAH FOR THE TERM, THIS FORECASTER HAD A CASE OF LETHOLOGICA THIS
MORNING).
CPC Febuary update of ENSO delays somewhat the fading of El Nino.They now extend to early Summer instead of at Spring.Also they say possible La Nina by the fall but that word "Possible" means is not a 100% thing by any means.By ASO Neutral and La Nina are at 44%. Read the whole update at my ENSO Blog.

Quoting 111. CaneFreeCR:

YAWN!! Boy are you ever behind the 8-ball!

Yeah, this was never discussed before.
So here's a curiosity question for everyone. Which forecasting models do you prefer and why? Just from reading the blog I understand that no model is perfect, and how a model can accurately predict a storm one week and then be way off base the next. I'm looking at a couple of the models for the predicted storm to hit the east cost at about 132 hours out, and just trying to more accurately understand them.
138. MahFL
NWS Jax says the High drifted further south than expected which resulted in westerly winds and warmer than forecast overnight lows.
Quoting 116. tampabaymatt:



Local mets really missed the mark on overnight lows in the Tampa Bay area. Most locations were at least 5 degrees warmer than forecasted. One of the suburbs of Tampa was forecasted to get to 32, but was at 46 at 6:00 AM today, that's a pretty big miss. I'm not sure why temps were warmer than planned. There are light winds, low dew points, and clear skies, so if anything I would have expected temps to be lower than forecasted, not higher.
A weak but sufficient southerly flow developed in time overnight to keep temperatures from falling too drastically. I was at 28 degrees at midnight and never budged after that. A pretty good southerly breeze has developed this morning with the temperature already up to 54. Should hit around 65 later today and stay above freezing tonight.
Quoting 137. LuckySD:

So here's a curiosity question for everyone. Which forecasting models do you prefer and why? Just from reading the blog I understand that no model is perfect, and how a model can accurately predict a storm one week and then be way off base the next. I'm looking at a couple of the models for the predicted storm to hit the east cost at about 132 hours out, and just trying to more accurately understand them.
I don't have a preference for any particular model at a particular time. The ECMWF has a better long-term record that other models, so that's a starting point. That doesn't mean every run of the ECMWF is going to be right though. The GFS is the next most accurate of the global models. The NAM can do a good job in winter, although it's not as good as the other two with things like precipitation amounts and types. The CMC/GEM used to be good with winter storms but it's not even handling those well lately. I look at the GFS and ECMWF mainly. If they are aren't even close, I give up and wait twelve hours. Once they do start to come into some agreement, I look at how well both are at six hours out. If they aren't getting the position of highs and lows right then, that's not a good sign for future accuracy. One will do better than the other at that and, as long as the other model isn't completely off the track, I'd prefer the best time now model. It's worthwhile to still look at the NAM and CMC to see if they are in agreement or are off on their own course. If you do this kind of thing every day, plus read forecast discussions. you'll get a good feeling as to which model is the most trustworthy with the next storm.
My 2 cents; I do not know enough about each model to make call on each one; they all have strengths and weaknesses and are upgraded as time goes by to address improvement and resolution of data. I only know (for hurricane purposes) that NHC bases their cones-tracks on model consensus clustering so I would think that no one model, in any given scenario, is gospel; and especially in the longer term.
On a side note, it was 28 this morning when I walked the dog around 5:00 am near Tallahassee and already up to 50 with an afternoon forecast high of 68; one of the quickest warm-ups I have seen in a long time.
Quoting 134. win1gamegiantsplease:

Third time's the charm? Probably not :[

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
EXTREMELY COLD AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SERVE AS A BAROCLINIC GRADIENT FOR A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG COAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS BOTH QPF AND PTYPE
ARE LESS THAN CONCRETE. STRONG PIECE OF VORT ENERGY (25 S-1) WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST...AND ASSIST IN
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. THE BEST PVA
OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN...CAUSING THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN PRETTY FAR
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND THUS ABUNDANT MOISTURE/QPF IS NOT FORECAST
FOR THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...BROAD SW FLOW ATOP THE WEDGE AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K AND 290K
SURFACES...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL COLUMN SATURATION AND PRECIP ONSET. IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING AT 7AM FRIDAY...BUT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD.

THIS LEADS TO A VERY INTERESTING FORECAST AS SURFACE TEMPS AND WET-
BULBS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...WARM NOSE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB 0C...BUT WITH THE INCREASING SW FLOW ATOP
THE WEDGE...900-800MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING
SO THAT BY LATE MORNING THE WARM NOSE IN EVEN THE COLDEST SPOTS
(NEAR LUMBERTON) WILL BE +2C...AND RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND OF COURSE...AND WITHIN THE
WEDGE EVEN THE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO FAST IN BRINGING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY NEAR I-95. BEFORE THE WARM NOSE
DEVELOPS...THERE REMAINS A STUBBORN DRY LAYER WITHIN THE
DGZ...MAKING IT UNLIKELY THAT ANY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PVA SATURATES THE COLUMN ABOVE
600MB...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH VIRGA TO MOISTEN THE DGZ WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS IN A `SEEDER-FEEDER` TYPE SETUP (THANKS TO WFO
RAH FOR THE TERM, THIS FORECASTER HAD A CASE OF LETHOLOGICA THIS
MORNING).
LOL. I have letho...uh...letho...darn! I had it right on the tip of my tongue too. :-)

It's going to take about ten things to happen just right for any of us in the South and not in the mountains to see snow this weekend. Each model run has trended warmer, and the return flow from the Gulf and then up and over you looks a little stronger than previously forecast. On top of that, there will be a very dry layer just above 850 mb that will make it difficult for anything liquid to make it through. At least at the beginning of the storm, the ground is also going to be much too warm for any accumulations. If the cold air coming in was deeper I might be more optimistic, but it looks pretty shallow, and it's going to have a hard time moving the all the warm air out. The only thing that might change this overall gloomy outlook is if we get a cold air damming scenario set up. It could happen, but it just isn't looking very likely now. As usual, the models will probably change again, so we'll see if they start teasing us again.
Quoting 129. Bucsboltsfan:



IDK, I'm not versed enough with el Niño's but I seem to recall that it extending for another year would not be the norm. But then again, what is normal?

What I posted didn't show El Nino lasting another year. That had it going neutral in at least conditions long enough it should pull us out of an offical El Nino. Even what STS posted doesn't show if it went neutral at all over summer.. that was just a fall portrait. Historically more recently the stronger El Ninos have been followed by a strong La Nina most of the time. Wasn't the case in 1982-83. The only other time back to 1950 we got to 2.3 (1997), which is where the three month average is now, it took 5 more months after that to get to La Nina. Looking at that link and history it is more usual for an El Nino event to oscillate back and forth between El Nino and Neutral for several like 2-6 years before it turns cold. But there is always exceptions like 1972.

STS~ I wouldn't be surprised if the short term forecast WWB materialized as a result of the current tropical set up with the storms in Southern West Pacific. Coming MJO may ramp that up a bit..

Here is a VIIRS of Winston..



ricder~ I can agree that it is certain that eventually El Nino will end. With ESPI at 1.28 it should last atleast a few more months. Beyond that, the models this time of year aren't that great, so can't say much with any certainty after that...will just wait, see and observe.
Quoting 123. Skyepony:

The February anomalies for GEOS-5 is out. Still dooming mid country for excessive rain in March ..red is excessive rain here. California rejoice & prepare for rain.. & more rain for FL.



Shorter term the rain should return there in a week..

Unfortunately, not all of California. The rain looks like mostly far northern California and then down the spine of the Sierra. The coastal areas, while at least not showing a negative anomaly, are also not showing anything positive.
Quoting 135. Tropicsweatherpr:

CPC Febuary update of ENSO delays somewhat the fading of El Nino.They now extend to early Summer instead of at Spring.Also they say possible La Nina by the fall but that word "Possible" means is not a 100% thing by any means.By ASO Neutral and La Nina are at 44%. Read the whole update at my ENSO Blog.




I think many are scratching their heads @ the CFSv2 right now as this model is refusing to budge infact the model is increasing the intensity of El-Nino from weak to moderate by mid Fall. Going to be an interesting several months ahead.
147. vis0

Quoting 63. washingtonian115:

This is the straightest cut off line I've ever seen on a model


its even quoting itself (see quote marked over Mass) i guess the left quotes are on the other side of the cold plume.
Quoting 141. weathermanwannabe:

My 2 cents; I do not know enough about each model to make call on each one; they all have strengths and weaknesses and are upgraded as time goes by to address improvement and resolution of data. I only know (for hurricane purposes) that NHC bases their cones-tracks on model consensus clustering so I would think that no one model, in any given scenario, is gospel; and especially in the longer term.
The professional forecasters also look backwards to see how well each model did with its prediction 24 hours earlier compared to time now. That's something I rarely see people here do, since they tend to get wrapped up in the next model run as if it's somehow going to be the truth this time. If a model run for 24 hours ago (and it's easy to look at this at TropicalTidbits) does not match up well with what's on the surface map today, that should be an additional warning that the model may not be getting the right input data or isn't handling what it does get well.
Quoting 140. sar2401:

I don't have a preference for any particular model at a particular time. The ECMWF has a better long-term record that other models, so that's a starting point. That doesn't mean every run of the ECMWF is going to be right though. The GFS is the next most accurate of the global models. The NAM can do a good job in winter, although it's not as good as the other two with things like precipitation amounts and types. The CMC/GEM used to be good with winter storms but it's not even handling those well lately. I look at the GFS and ECMWF mainly. If they are aren't even close, I give up and wait twelve hours. Once they do start to come into some agreement, I look at how well both are at six hours out. If they aren't getting the position of highs and lows right then, that's not a good sign for future accuracy. One will do better than the other at that and, as long as the other model isn't completely off the track, I'd prefer the best time now model. It's worthwhile to still look at the NAM and CMC to see if they are in agreement or are off on their own course. If you do this kind of thing every day, plus read forecast discussions. you'll get a good feeling as to which model is the most trustworthy with the next storm.
Makes sense. Thanks! It also probably helps explain why the CMC/GEM shows a huge strip of freezing rain/sleet when no one else does. Any idea why that model has started to struggle with the winter forecasts?
Broken blogs, what's new. Anyways, the GFS 12z is a complete torch for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Quoting 137. LuckySD:

So here's a curiosity question for everyone. Which forecasting models do you prefer and why? Just from reading the blog I understand that no model is perfect, and how a model can accurately predict a storm one week and then be way off base the next. I'm looking at a couple of the models for the predicted storm to hit the east cost at about 132 hours out, and just trying to more accurately understand them.


I like all of them equally. Each run is a possible future, so a forecast, not an if-then, which would be a prediction.
Quoting 99. sar2401:

The duck recommends AFLAC!! :-)


The duck has more sense than most of Congress. :)
Quoting 149. LuckySD:

Makes sense. Thanks! It also probably helps explain why the CMC/GEM shows a huge strip of freezing rain/sleet when no one else does. Any idea why that model has started to struggle with the winter forecasts?
Seems as if the crack staff here must be doing some midday upgrading again since it takes about five minutes for anything to load.

I don't know what happened to the CMC. It used to be the best winter storm model. It was "upgraded" in 2013 to add a lot more global forecasting capabilities. It worked reasonably well for tropical storms in the first half of the 2013 season and then started to get less accurate in last half. By the 2014 season, it seemed pretty obvious something was wrong. The CMC scrambled around to apply fixes for 2015, but the model did even worse with tropical storms last year. While all that was happening, its winter storm forecasting ability degraded even faster. I'm sure the CMC staff is working on fixes, but I imagine that a model that complex can get pretty balled up with even minor fixes if the fix doesn't work and the error cascades through the system. It's way beyond me to understand the physics and programming that go into weather models, but this was a case of Canada wanting a bigger presence on the global weather scene. It has gotten that, just not in the ways they were hoping for.
Quoting 150. Drakoen:

Broken blogs, what's new. Anyways, the GFS 12z is a complete torch for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Moved it too far west!
Quoting 150. Drakoen:

Broken blogs, what's new. Anyways, the GFS 12z is a complete torch for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.


what ever tempers gos down most come up
Quoting 152. Xyrus2000:



The duck has more sense than most of Congress. :)
I'm debating throwing the duck's hat...err, feather, into the ring. It seems like it should be an ideal candidate. It's good at squawking, can run around in circles better than anyone, and can only say one word - AFLAC!!. There's no way it can get in trouble with that word, most people agree it's sort of lovable, and will probably be pretty diligent in office as long as the supply of duck food is kept up. It would improve our national image by quacks and bounds. :-)
Quoting 108. pickettroad:

http://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/until-1950-us - weathermen-were-forbidden-from-talking-about-torna dos?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=atlas-page

UNTIL 1950, U.S. WEATHERMEN WERE FORBIDDEN FROM TALKING ABOUT TORNADOS
Here is the link
158. vis0

Quoting 139. sar2401:

A weak but sufficient southerly flow developed in time overnight to keep temperatures from falling too drastically. I was at 28 degrees at midnight and never budged after that. A pretty good southerly breeze has developed this morning with the temperature already up to 54. Should hit around 65 later today and stay above freezing tonight.
yet more colder air is coming towards the Virgina area than expected...but then it begins to slow down as if being pulled back northward...weird...OR!...someone in Washington DC left their snow-blower ON with its output facing the ATLANTIC (pulling down cold from North while warm moist air from South ...= snowrmageddon II or snowMEHgedon I ?
159. vis0
i rarely ask for favours, can georgevandenberghe remove the winter lights today AND hang them back up on Sunday AM?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
161. vis0
Patient::   Doc when i move my arm like this it hurts.
Doc::   (pulls out hammer - strikes patient's toe)
Doc::   How's the arm?
Patient::   Much better (as Patient limps away)

Brought to you by,   Contempo, the modern way of fixing things (Why learn, if its not working break it then call the experts).


Weather for zip 10016::
Today, brrr
Tomorrow,  brrrrrrrr
Sunday, wwwwwttttttttffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff

anyone remember me saying during the first ~160ish yrs of Earth feeling aGW we'll see GW Schizo, meaning Nature will trend towards warming but at times we'll see/experience cold breaking loose..don't remember,darn.

Anywayz, watch some aGW $keptic$ will use this cold as proof of no aGW, one problem even with these local super cold outbreaks in 2014 & 2015 those years reach top level warmest years...oopsie...the grace period i.e. the aforementioned ~160ish yrs will end ~2050ish AD then its mainly just warming. WAKE UP!

or i could typed

AFLAC!

162. vis0
JeffMasters has created a new entry.        & nbsp;                   
` yer welcome wunderalertbot.  i understand yer getting new virtual crayons, soon. 
 
 

IRI ENSO Forecast
2016 February Quick Look
Published: February 11, 2016

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)






...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ROBESON...BLADEN...PENDER COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...COLUMBUS...MARLBORO AND DILLON COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.

* TIMING...FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY
SLIPPERY. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...RISING SLOWLY TO
AROUND FREEZING AND JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN...
SNOW...AND SLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
Quoting 124. Bucsboltsfan:



If it were to materialize, wouldn't that be highly unusual for an El Ni%uFFFFo carry on for so long?
Don't trust the models this far out, sorry no more Nino's for a few years after this one is done. The ffat lady sung and this Nino is toast, keep your eye on the SOI, as it has been mostly positive, but should turn negative in the near future as the country turns cold again. Then as before it will return to a positive state, thus helping to start up a new Nina for the next few years.
Quoting 128. Skyepony:


It was sort of highly unusual it got as strong as it did this year & the warmth last year didn't spread west like it should have, delaying the onset. Do you think what comes next will be completely usual?
Yes, why not?
Weather whiplash in Nova Scotia.
While Sunday's forecast for Halifax is near (but not quite) record cold both for the low and the high, Tuesday next week may blow well past previous record warmth, with a possibility that Tuesday night's low will be higher than previous record highs.