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North Sea storm spares England and the Netherlands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:35 PM GMT on November 09, 2007

A massive fall storm over Europe's North Sea generated winds near hurricane force last night that pushed a dangerous storm surge near 1.5 meters (4.65 feet) in height to the southeastern English coast this morning. The storm surge was much lower than originally feared, due in part to the fact it did not hit at high tide. The surge did breach sea defenses and caused some minor coastal flooding in England. It was feared that the storm might rival the great North Sea Flood of 1953 that breached the dikes in the Netherlands. Over 2,000 people died in northern Europe in that storm, mostly in the Netherlands. While today's storm did not approach the 1953 storm in severity, it did bring the highest storm surge seen in the past 20 years to the North Sea. The massive flood gates that protect the Dutch port of Rotterdam were closed for the first time since they were constructed in the 1990s. From early media accounts, the gates did their job admirably, protecting the Netherlands from inundation. Water levels reached 3.16 meters above mean sea level in the southern Netherlands, and 3.40 meters above sea level in the northern Netherlands, with no flooding reported. The floods of 1953 saw Dutch waters rise to 3.85 meters (12.6 ft) above sea level. Today's storm was not the remains of Hurricane Noel, which is currently over northern Canada.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Europe from 1322 GMT November 8, 2007. A powerful 975 mb low pressure system centered north of England ("L" on the image) was pushing a strong cold front southwards towards Western Europe. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.

Figure 2. Forecast waves heights at 6am Greenwich time, Friday November 9, 2007, as predicted by NOAA's Wavewatch III model.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather over the extreme southern Caribbean, near Panama, is under about 20 knots of wind shear. The computer forecast models are predicting that some development of this region may occur by Sunday, when wind shear is expected to fall below 20 knots. However, the models are less keen on this prospect than yesterday. Any system that might form is expected to move westward and affect Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

I'll have an update Monday morning, unless there's some new development this weekend.

Jeff Masters
Gales at the Butt
Gales at the Butt
Storm force winds made taking a good picture difficult, as the lence of the camara got salt on it.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

472. EddieG 5:01 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
I am re-posting this because I'm hoping it catches someone's eye:

India Meteorological Department
High Seas Forecast
Issued at 1800z November 10th 2007

Storm ID: ----

Region: Bay of Bengal

Location: 7.0N 94.0E

Winds: Sustained winds is 15 knots/20 knots gusts becoming cyclonic.

Weather: Fairly widespread rain/thunderstorm east of 85E. Rest of area is isolated.

Visibility: poor.

Sea Conditions: slight to moderate.
Tropical Disturbance Summary (2130z 10Nov)
An area of convection (91B) persisted near 10.1N 92.6E or 90 NM south of Andaman Islands. Animated Enhanced Infrared Satellite Imagery shows deep convection flaring over an increasingly well developed low level circulation center. AMSU-B Microwave Image and Windsat Microwave Image depicts an improved LLCC.

Upper level analysis shows convection is being enhanced by strong diffluent flow over the disturbance. Vertical wind shear has decreased and is no longer impeding development.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with minimum sea level pressure of 1004 mb. Due to improved upper level environment, increased organization of the low level circulation center, and decreasing vertical wind shear, the potential of this system to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to GOOD.

1 month 24 days 20 hours 16 min

Storm, did you go and read Lakes blog about the Indian way of figuring out how many snowfalls you might get in a given year?

Storm System Over Atlantic Canada

evening all...what is this about the indian way of predicting snow fall?
tigger, u made the first post in over an Hour!!!
lol, just got home and popped on
went to look at Lake's blog, couldn't find it on the list...was interested
so what is it...no one wants to post with little action? could always talk about NE getting snow (wish it would snow here), signs of winter coming (we are inundated with acorns) or just plain utter nonsense to relieve the stress of the season...lol
HG, guess mine will be the only post for another hour...rofl
Hi there Tigger. I can tell you that it was 34 degrees on my front porch this morning, and I am in brooksville FL. north west of Tampa by about 50 miles! BURRRRRR!
found lake's blog...pretty interesting...noticed the acorn theory too... here is another acorn theory...
when trees are inundated with acorns (as they are now in my area of the SE) it will be a long and cold winter (more food for the critters to eat) it also coinsides with climate cycles...it is believed that the amount of acorns correlates with the spring of 2 years ago...wet spring in 05 means abundance of acorns for 07...this seems to follow hurricanes as well...go back to Hugo...acorns seemed to be missles...it snowed in SC on the coast that year!
hey mermaid...cold in Charleston too! Live only a few miles from the beach...down right fridged past few days!
ok, i'm alone again...
anyone else still here?
Hey "T I double G'er" the link should work for lakes blog
I found it orca...pulled it up alphabetically...
T-MINUS 483hrs27min
remain of the 2007 atlanti hurricane season
Anyone still here?
seems to be thinning out real fast in here zoo
Evenin folks (if anyone's here..lol)
Hi Baja - not many people here, must all be out enjoying Saturday night.
Hey Zoo!! Nice to see you. I guess quiet tropics equate to quiet blog, huh
oh...looks like a few are filtering in! LOL
out on a saturday???? haven't seen that in a LONG LONG LONG time. rofl
Heyyyyyyy Miss Tig!!
Baja!! Smooches to ya!
Ive been sitting here with my dinner checking out WeatherTap (link Storm posted a bit back). Interesting stuff. Im just not sure I like the idea of paying per month...vs paying once for the GRLevelX program
Certainly does - I didn't think it would get this quiet! It is my first time on today, catching up on reading, books that is.
I wonder if anyone's here that could answer a question about the pic in post 501

Looks like gravity waves...would that be correct?
<<< don't do any of em I have to pay for...my luck...I would forget to take it out of my account and Tigger something! (you know...Bounce?!) lol
lol tig!
that is some kind of silvery haze over the islands...not the typical amber colored...everyone wondering what it actually is!
I hear ya zoo. That's what I've been doing. Going back and looking at some of the links I saved under "educational"
Hey tigger!
Hi Storm! Cant say mind was educational, when I have had too much at work, I read silly romances - lose myself for a few hours.
LOL !!! Storm!!! Good to see you!!! *scrambles to navy site to see 93L*

Hey Storm? Can YOU answer the question I asked in 534???
Hi Ya Zoo!

93L???? where the heck did that come from??? AAARRRGGGHHH
i don't get to read much...unless of course Golden Books, Dr. Seuss and Mother Goose count! roflmao
Thanks, Storm. I was looking at that and MY lunchtime today and thought that was the case. So, next question then...could THAT be the cause of the posters observations?
Tigger - you are in our prayers - hope everything turns out well with the boys.
at* lol sheesh...I must be tired :))
I love to read, feel deprived when I don't get a chance. Youngest is 16, but you would be amazed how many time she interrupts. However, I can now say - give me 10 minutes. lol
thanks zoo, need all the prayers we can get right now!
use to read a lot...now my biggie is SUDOKU!!
On the weather front, nuthin'. The sky is blue, its beautiful, not too hot & forecasted to stay that way for a while.
93L is on the navy site and wunderground...
sky is dark here...night time, he he he
Love those too - try to do a few at night. Think it will help keep the brain working.
Storm, the haze post was made some time ago (yesterday or earlier today) and they said they have a weird silvery haze over the island...like no other they had ever seen...not like the normal amber/yellow haze they get this time of year...are they related to the gravity waves seen in the pic?
How did I know that someone would have something to say!! Can always count on the entertainment factor.
off to run an errand, may pop back in later.
My prediction was that 93L would form at November 9 EST, you see. Not bad, my prediction.
got the books, on the puter and the handheld electronic...have gone thru 3 handhelds since Mother's Day this year...wore them out...not just the battery...keys wouldn't work any more...that is what I do when i am stressed! sounds like I need to reduce my stress level a little huh?? lol
Take care, zoo
later to ya zoo and thanks again
I was reading about them a couple of weeks ago....this was one of the links I'd saved........

Evening everyone!

The disturbance in the SW Caribbean has been labelled 93L just now. Five minutes ago there wasn't anything.
Evenin taiste
Click *smiles*
Those 45 and older..this is fer you,us..them..LOL!!

brb baja, clothes in dryer...if you go else where, email me to let me know please
ROFLMAO, Pat!! This is MY song!! haha!!!
Hi Baja :)

About 24 hours ago I said that the conditions are not favourable for development of what is now 93L but now the shear maps indicate decreasing shear... could still become a tropical depression before it makes landfall. The SHIPS even makes it tropical storm with 40 kts maximum in 72 hours. Could be possible if the shear does not change again within the next 24 hours.

Yes, this IS kind of a trip. A little unexpected..at least TODAY anyway
LOL Nash!! Evenin kiddo :P
so funny - someone mentions an invest, and up pop the people!
storm, they did say at one point, it wasn't like the Sahara Haze they get...

Patrap...I resemble that song!
Hey gang,
Since it is rather slow here tonight, thought I would share these 2 sites that I stumbled upon this afternoon.

1. For the true geeks. Whenever someone asks you for the time, just say, "Give me a sec.", then whip out this baby. Just make sure it is not at night or you'll be seen as a kook as well. LOL

2. For those of you with school-age kids and the newbie meteorologist wannabe's among us (that would be I LOL).
Link Click on the big yellow "START".
Evenin' Baja! Up here at the hospital on call and before leaving to go back home, I thought I would pop in. Didn't expect an Invest:-)
It is a very nice 68 outside - interesting that the cooler weather has started, maybe that means that we will have a winter -
Hi nash28,

yes, the wunderground tropics page just updated about half an hour ago, there is now 93 L which can be seen also on the Navy page.
Kinda makes sense.......

Just looked at SAT. Yeah, that's invest worthy.

Gonna move basically due west again as the others have in this exact same spot.
hey zoo, get the errands done or did ya put em on hold for a bit???
On call, Nash? You work in medical?
nope - went and came back. I'm blessed, the grocery store is about 5 blocks away - can run right in and out! Quite a line for lotto going on over there.
West, then southwest?
Nope Baja. Network Administrator.

Had a switch go down and I couldn't remotely kick it in the ass from home:-)

So, duty calls...
ROFL @ Stone Henge Pocket Watch !!!
Baja, you seem to be quite familiar with these shear images. Could you answer me one question about the white lines with the arrows? I heard about steering currents which move the systems but these cannot indicate those because the arrows in the area of 93L point all east but the models indicate that it moves about westward. What are these arrows? Thanks in advance :-)

*edit* sorry, north or north-east, I was looking at an older shear map. My mistake
Ahhhhhhhhhh, ok. That's gotta bite!
wanna trade errands??? Same grocery store, bout same distance...now take a 3 yr old, in the car seat, out of the seat, in the cart (or all over he store) thru the line with can i have a candy huh huh huh huh...back to the car, in the seat, put up the cart, home, out the seat and realize you forgot what you went to the store for...roflmao
Lemme get another map
ok, need the pocket watch for my oldest son who spent last summer in UK...omg...roflmao

aarrgghh Nash...what a way to mess up a saturday!
Tigger - you have my sympathy! I remember going with 4 of them, still don't know how I managed, but you do what you have to.
Would this one do? This is the latest on the CIMSS page
Yeah, kind of muddied the Saturday night, but I am oughta here now.

Time for my drive home. Talk to y'all later.
zoo, now i work at a preschool with 100 of them...I REFUSE TO TAKE THEM TO THE STORE!!!! HE HE HE...but try teaching art to kids all 5 years old and under!
drive safe Nash...dont mess up the rest of your saturday!
605. MrSea
Brrr its 38 degrees and falling here on LI
I love kids, but I'm not sure about 100 of them! You must have the patience of a saint.
bout 50 in charleston...dropping tho...high for tomorrow is 62F
Ah, I think I begin to understand... the java movie you posted differs a lot from the shear maps I was looking at. In the movie the arrows point west to south-west, on the shear maps they point more or less in the opposite direction. In the bottom line the movie is labelled "steering product 400-850 hpa layer" and the maps "goes east wind shear product". Ok, the steering currents point indeed west to south west but what about these other arrows...
Posted by: StormW, 3:17 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
This will be shorter than normal as I have a busy day

The tropics remain quiet with the exception of the
disturbed weather located near the Panama/Costa Rica
area. A low level circulation appears to be centered
right over the Isthmus of Panama. This area has been
basically stationary. I expect this area to remain
nearly stationary for the next 24-36 hours, and then I
am calling for it to make its way into the Pacific
basin. Models indicate shear to relax a little, and
this could become just a little more organized before
moving off to the west.

Models are in fair agreement of pressure falls in the
same area next week, and I will monitor this as the
current forecast shear maps again indicate next week
for an anticyclone to remain in the upper levels, with
shear decreasing somewhat...in fact, the GFS is
showing wind shear relaxing to favorable conditions by
72-78 hours out through day five of the current
forecast period.

The oceanic low that was called for has materialized
and can be seen moving NNE towards Nova Scotia.

Wind data can be found by accessing the following site


Dry air covers the GOMEX, Bahamas, and a small portion
of the Caribbean, and another area east of the Lesser

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected
through Sunday.


Any chance of this bad boy hanging around and catching the trof?

Taiste...looking at the sheer map you posted, it matches up pretty well with the sat image..because you can SEE the shear
611. MrSea
Tiggeriffic I hope you have ehough clorox wipes to clean up the paint lol
have patience...but love to see their faces when they create something...it is total discovery...makes it worth it...even tho there are a few that I wish were mine so I could pop their little butts!
Oh, next lightbulb moment. The arrows indicate the direction the shear is blowing. Thanks a lot for posting, now I understand the difference between the two. :-D
Middle of the state must be the cutoff for the cold front, Tampa is at 55
I only buy WASHABLE PAINT and I buy baby wipes by the case...roflmao!
Kids are great, we have always had a lot of teenagers in our house. Sometimes mine are gone, and we still have a house full!
Jeeeeeeeeeze, cantories...put a cork in it for chrissakes.
otherwise known as monster children... known a few of those in my time.
Expecting any snow tonight Mr. Sea? By the way, where on LI?
617. BajaALemt 2:51 AM GMT on November 11, 2007 Hide this comment.
Jeeeeeeeeeze, cantories...put a cork in it for chrissakes.

Excuse me...what's your problem, I'm simply asking a question and if you don't like...USE YOUR IGNORE BUTTON.
Monster Child (adj)1. describes the child that has no parental supervision 2.describes the child who's parent thinks that a spanking is child abuse 3.describes the child who is truely satan's spawn!
Taiste? Doc M posted a really neat Windshear Tutorial

4. Everything the child does, no matter how destructive, is "cute".
I misread that, my bad....apologies
goes without saying. We went bowling with a group of families once. I've bowled leagues for years, so big on etiquette - kids went lane to lane hitting reset button. Parents thought it was the cutest thing. Kids were 5 & 7. Needless to say, never went with them again.
Maybe my previous statement was a bit unclear, with "direction in which shear is blowing" I meant what is explained in Figure 2 and 3 in the wind shear tutorial. The pink arrows in Fig. 3 indicate the direction of the upper level winds in Fig. 2.
Thanks again for your postings and reminding me of the tutorial, all seems to be clear now. :)
Cool, Taiste. Folks here have been REALLY helpful...I've just tried to save the things that they've given ME that HAVE been helpful
omg, they so would have been taken to the bathroom! i don't take my 3 year old any where that I know he cannot handle, ie bowling alley, an auction, expensive restraunt, symphoney, plays...and so on...however, where I do take him, i expect him to behave...if he doesn't i will pop his butt in front of God and everybody...God made my hand the exact size of his butt for a reason!
Me too - I can't get over the number of small children and babies in the movies, I would never have taken any of mine, just not the place.
where did everyone go all of a sudden???
633. MrSea
Anyone from Long Island please feel free to check out my blog and leave a comment...
(I am not being racist or sectionalist by saying anyone from Long Island, it is just that I wrote mainly about LI)
popped back out again tigger.
LOL Sea...I am in Charleston, but have a son in RI...no such animal as a sectionalist...rofl
I swear zoo, you can run errands faster than the FLASH! lol
lol - no the people all popped back out again!
How long has 93L been up on the NRL? I just noticed it. Sorry if this has been discussed already.
hey zoo, got something strange to tell you...
went to Burger King tonight on a gut feeling... the person standing in line in front of me was a Neurologist from MUSC children's hospital...dont even know how it came up but I told him bout having a problem getting my oldest in to see anyone because techically he is too old for a pediatrician and too young (has to be 21) to see an adult neuro due to the type of tumors he has...he took our names and phone number and said he would do everything in his power to get both my boys into his office to be seen together... fate works in mysterious ways eh?
I'm still learning, Baja, haven't been here for very long yet, only one season though I've been observing the NHC's site for nearly 3 years but I never really got a good understanding of the mechanics of tropical weather until I joined this blog here. I think you all are part of the best site for educating people about the hazards of tropical storms, great work. And it isn't only Dr. Master's, also the other mets posting links to their blogs so as a newbie you're blown away by the mass of information. It took me several months to digest all I read about and now, by the end of the season, it starts sinking in :-)
not long vort, waiting tho...is under some shear right now, is supposed to relax tomorrow
Yes, Taiste....there are ALOT of really knowlegeable people here that are willing to help others learn. Can't ASK for a better forum!! I've always been facinated with severe weather.....Thunderstorms, tornados. I started paying more attention to hurricanes after hurricane Ivan...we were on the "dirty side". That sorta got my attention.....LOL Lurked here for quite some time
vortfix, the first picture on the NRL site is from 0115 UTC, so I guess that is about the time they called it an invest.
It appeared at 0200 UTC on the wunderground tropics map.
tigger that is great - yes fate works in strange ways. My son was putting gas in his car, talking to the guy standing next to him. Turns out he is a pyschologist who specializes in PTSD. I felt like God had sent him.
taist...another site that helps me is crownweather.com has about 20 different maps with all the arrows and stuff you need to help out too...some of the other sites i have a problem navigating, but that one has each map already pulled up for you...even every level of steering winds, water temps, shear, etc...
zoo, that is great, hope he is helping your son.

taist, i have always loved weather, i understand basic storms, tornadoes, snow, etc, it wasn't until Hugo in 1989 that Hurricanes hit my list...but I can still walk outside on a clear night and smell the air and tell you if it will snow...lol...ask my hubby, i proved it to him, even tho he still insists that snow does not have an odor. roflmao
baja, didn't mean to not include your name in my post...did you see #639?
Wow Tig. A friend of mine uses a word I liked when I heard it.

She calls things like that......coinciGods
i need to put that one in my personal dictionary!
one of my favorites is one that Mother Theresa said...

I know God will not give me more than what I can handl...I just wish he didn't trust me so much!
Sorry to hear that, Baja, hope everything is ok again after Ivan.

My interest in severe weather started as a small girl when the winterstorms Vivian and Wiebke caused widespread destruction in the forests in my home region in South Germany in winter 1990. The English wikipedia article about European windstorms doesn't say much about them, just a small entry in the list of recent storms, but the German sites provide good information on them. Both Vivian and Wiebke had gusts up to 285 km/h (177 mph or 154 kts, so nearly category 5) and sustained winds were between 70 and 108 kts (Wiebke was the more violent storm). The worst about these two was the timing, Vivian hit between February 25 and 27, Wiebke just one day later, the night between February 28 and March 1st. I remember clearly the forests which looked like giants having played jackstraws there.

Back then there was no internet available for a greater public so watching these weather events and also getting information was trickier for laymen.
When my mom was sick and dying...I use to look up and say "Ok, time for a bigger plate again!"
Wow...back to back. That would leave an impression!!
I've heard that saying before. I think, we have to STRETCH to grow, so I figure I have to get a little MORE than I think I can handle...so I have to STRETCH to get through it *smiles*
taist, I was in one but not quite that bad... winter of 78-79 on lake erie...I remember walking to school at 7:30 in the morning, snow at my ankles...by 9:30 they were sending us home, most of us walking to empty houses as our parents were at work...by this time the snow was at my waist and still coming...even our front porch that was 3ft off the ground and covered with a roof was snowed in...one of my brothers dropped out of a window with a shovel we kept in the basement to shovel us out of the house...by the time it was all over and the streets were plowed...the snow piles covered the telephone poles.
Ahhhhhhhhhhhh. Taiste, I didnt go to college until I was 40. Because of that, I learned to use 'google' to do research for homework. That's helped me alot with learning more about weather, because I AM good at using google to find information.
Wow Tigger - I would have loved to see that.
ok, am I slow or did you change your avatar zoo?
Love your AV, zoo
thanks Baha - trying to get in the holiday spirit - determined to get all my decorations up, last year my kid was in Iraq, I didn't have much spirit
Its my Christmas lighthouse :}
1030 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2007



ok, don't like the orange track one bit!
I can understand that. Home this year?
Know the feeling zoo, my oldest bro was in in the persian gulf when the towers were hit...he loaded some of the planes from there...even wrote some messages on a few of the bombs...

hope he is home now...or at least not there
yes - he is out of the army and home now. Thanks. I waited so long last year to get a tree, there weren't many left. This year I'm going to get it next week when they come in :}
not in iraq i mean...
Is your brother still in the Navy?
Awwwwwwwwwwwww, that's wonderful, zoo! What a great xmas present, huh?
LOL zoo...I can't say as that I blame you...takes me over a week here...pull it all out day after thanksgiving...oldest son always did the yard lights, not home this year... :0(
we always did the yard in all white and blue.. animated deer, he even made rivers going thru the yard, that is where the blue lights come in...white icicles on the roof and thru the trees...and simple garland along the fence... he did a great job...
he retired a few years ago...had kidney cancer surgery 2 days before news of oldest son came in...talk about that bigger plate...lol
I love Christmas lights - unfortunately the folks in my house act like I'm torturing them to put them up ... lol
hubby just called, almost home, bbl on
Tigger - I think you have had more than your share - its about time you got a break.
Off for the night - night all.
tigger, so much snow sounds bad enough even if the wind is not that strong. In Finland it doesn't see to bee too bad. The fastest growing rate of snow coverage is 48 cm (~19 inch) in 24 h according to the FMI. I have witnessed a 30 cm or 12" growth once which is not that bad. The Helsinki city council employs several hundred workers each winter just for snow-ploughing. Finland's geographical position is quite sheltered behind the mountains of Norway and Sweden to its West so storm coming from the Atlantic must cross them first.
In Germany, however, last winter was really an exeptionally snowy one. A friend of mine from Bavaria told me that their ground floor was completely covered with snow so it was dark inside also during the day. the snow reached nearly up to the window sills of the first floor. Roofs threatend to give in under the heavy cover of several feet of snow. I'm looking for pictures of Bavarian villages during January 2007... using google. :-)

Google is really cool, Baja, I agree. I also learned to use it when starting to study 5 years ago. I use it frequently not only for information retrieval but also for grammar checking (though one has to be careful with that) e.g. in French: which preposition goes with the verb I want to use. The combination with most hits is often the right one ;-) Otherwise the example phrases tell me if there's a difference in meaning.

tipsku goes "googling"...
Oh, my mistake, it was a year before, January 2006. Here are some pictures:
January 2006 (1) , January 2006 (2), January (3) and here a page dedicated to the exceptional snow amount.

Ok, I seem to be alone here.. good night everyone! I should go to bed, too.
Japan Meteorological Agency

20.2N 140.6E - 30 knots 1004 hPa

moving northwest slowly

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0400z 11Nov)
An area of convection (90W) persisted near 19.8N 140.0E or 310 NM south-southwest of Iwo To. Recent Enhanced Multispectral Satellite Imagery shows an area of organizating, flaring deep convection with a partially exposed low level circulation center. A SSMI Image reveals this LLCC.

Upper level analysis depicts the disturbance is near the ridge axis with good poleward venting. This features is providing good diffluence and moderate vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 18-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 mb. Based on the favorable upper level conditions and improving organization of the LLCC, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to GOOD.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is now in effect. This alert may be re-issued, canceled, or upgraded to a warning by 0400z 12November 2007.
Tigger, don't worry about the orange track. That's the CLP5, which is based ONLY on the tracks of previous storms in the area. When it varies significantly from the other models, you can feel free to ignore it.
LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Australia should brace itself for the worst tropical cyclone season since 1998/1999, a leading catastrophe forecaster warned on Friday.

Either five or six tropical storms will hit Australia this season, which lasts from Nov. 1 to April 30 2008, according to a prediction by UK-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

The Australia region, which includes nearby islands in the southwest Pacific, is likely to see 13 tropical storms, seven of which will develop into severe tropical cyclones, predicted TSR.

a leading catastrophe forecaster warned on Friday.

Let me guess....he's forecasting a catastrophy!
well Australia region already had "Unnamed Tropical Cyclone" though it happened in July.

East Australia might have Rebecca next week.

Tigger, don't worry about the orange track. That's the CLP5, which is based ONLY on the tracks of previous storms in the area. When it varies significantly from the other models, you can feel free to ignore it.

Not only that, but this is November; do we really expect an omen this late into the season?
India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook - Issued at 0600z 11November
A Low Pressure Area has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and Adjoining Neighborhood. This system is likely to become more marked.

Convective clouds are seen over south Andaman Sea, Southeast Bay of Bengal, and parts of Extreme Peninsular India.

Ridge line at 200 hPa passes through Latitude 11 Degree North over the Indian Region.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #1 (0900z)
At 6:00am UTC Tropical Cyclone Six had 1 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is located 95 NM south-southwest of the Andaman Islands moving west-northwest at 2 knots.

Significant wave height associate with 06B is 12 feet.

Next warning is later today at 2100z.
Wow, just 10 posts after my last one I'm one again and wish "Good morning everyone!"

In fact, I'm about to eat lunch soon, its 12:20 here. I'll check on 93L after that... BRB
Good morning all
sully has some super pictures of ne snow Link Looks like a blog to keep your eyes on this winter.
it is 19 here in Ontario, NY this morning with over 1/4 in frost on the ground
JTWC Tropical Cyclone 06B...Expected to reach Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Status with winds between 64-119 Knots

Tropical Invest 96P

JTWC Tropical Cyclone 06B is the same as Tropical Depression BOB 09 (BOB stands for Bay of Bengal)
Tropical Depression 22W

96P over the Northern Coral Sea

TCWC - Brisbane, Australia

for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 6:33pm on Sunday the 11th of November 2007

At the present time there are no significant tropical disturbances in the Coral

However computer models indicate that a low over the Solomon Sea near 7.0 S
154.0 E may deepen during the next 1 to 2 days while moving slowly west towards
Papua New Guinea and possibly moving into or redeveloping over the northwest
Coral Sea on Wednesday. At this stage, the probability of the low developing
into a tropical cyclone is low.
Cyclone over Southern Finland

You are weather 456. Hood morning worldly people.
Cyclone over the Caspian Depression

06B imagery

Good morning leftover
From the JTWC:

110900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 92.0E.
good morning everyone

93L remains essentially stationary this morning just E of the 80W line. Quikscat shows that most of the convection is on the western side of the circulation but recent vis images indicate that there is perhaps the start of some consolidation over the center.

Wind shear over 93L has fallen to between 5 and 10 knots and high pressure has set up overhead.
These are conducive conditions for further development today as evidenced by convection now starting to build near the center

Looks to me like we are pretty safe for the rest of the season in the GOM. The SST's have really fallen, although, I believe we are supposed to be in for some warm weather over the next week or so...Time will tell what Wisdom won't...
980 MB occluded cyclone over the Gulf of Alaska

Deep cold core low over the Canadian Maritimes

Looks like the tropics are a little more active globally. 93L in the Atlantic, TD 22W in the wpac, and TC 06B in the Indian Ocean.
This morning's QS partly missed 93L but based upon the wind shift it looks like it has a LLC
South Pacific Invest (94P by the SSD...96P by the Navy)


Thanks for the info on the 'ash' plume from Montserrat - the narrow stream does explain how the haze can come and go so quickly around here. I had discounted Montserrat because the MVO web-site reports low activity for most of this year, but your explanation makes sense.
BTW, you've got the hardest user-name, how'd you come up with that?
Eddie G
Etreme 236 where exactly are those islands in the s.w. pacific?
Thank you for the colorful picture updates!
712. hydrus 3:37 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Etreme 236 where exactly are those islands in the s.w. pacific?

Im not quite sure...there near New Guinea but im not sure what their called.
ur welcome
So what do you think about 93l W456? Looks like its better organized.
They are apart of Papua New Guinea

The names are:

New Britian
New Ireland

Then further east you have the Solomon Islands

711. EddieG 3:26 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Thanks for the info on the 'ash' plume from Montserrat
BTW, you've got the hardest user-name, how'd you come up with that?
Eddie G

Northern Eye Wall Never Again... Andrew
has a small window to become a TD...looks impressive on satellite imagery...The low tucked under the deepest convection and this is suggested by visible imagery and 950 vort/satellite.

Good morning...

We'll interesting to see 93L but it life looks to be short lived as the 2 dozen invest we seen in the 2007 hurricane season to this day.The prospects for next season are ones pointing to a busy from what ive seen but again its still very early and we have to see how things take shape in the coming months.A quick thought that comes to mind is seasonal forcast need to be taken with a grain of salt and really no one can tell with exact precision what numbers we,ll see and what areas will be affected by a tropical cyclone.Overall the best advice i can provide at this time is just be ready and have that hurricane plan in place incase you are asked to evacuate by your local emergency managment officials.The odds in my personal opinion favor a busy season landfall wise for the united states next year but for now all we can do is enjoy the long offseason and be ready come next june1.

Link to my website-www.Adrian's Weather.com
Going to be one of those days.. logged on here.. sneezed.. and I am on a laptop :(
Anyone have an umbrella :(
Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlantic Ocean Synopsis

A 1028 mb high pressure system over Northern Georgia is producing fair weather and 10-20 knot anticyclonic flow over most of the gulf of Mexico with scattered low level clouds embedded within the wind flow west of 90W. In the upper levels, strong confluent pattern dominates the region providing for a dry and stable atmosphere. Scattered showers are seen from Northern Mexico into Central Texas associated with a surface trough enhanced by upper level winds.

Over the SW Atlantic...An upper trough has its axis roughly along 68W north of 30N. The associated surface frontal trough extends from Grand Bahama Island through 29N/70W 30N/65W 32N/60W beyond the forecast area. This front is embedded within a stable air mass and a confluent environment and as a result only isolated low level showers are within 60nm along the front with stable air stratocumulus clouds within 400 nm behind the front.

Another surface frontal trough goes from Haiti through 35N/60W 30N/50W to beyond 38N/40W. This front lies within a strong diffluent environment between the upper trough and an upper high over the Eastern Caribbean. Scattered moderate to strong showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60-100 nm to the east of the front.

By W456
The odds in my personal opinion favor a busy season landfall wise for the united states next year

I personally think that it might be like 1989, since this year was similar to 1988 (if La Nina continues into next hurricane season). Then again, hopefully not:


The most notable storm of the season was Hurricane Gilbert, the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever observed at the time; Gilbert took a path through the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, causing devastation in Jamaica, Mexico, and many other island nations. Hurricane Joan caused very heavy damage and over 200 deaths, mostly in Nicaragua.

(no significant U.S. landfalls but a lot of damage in Central America and the Caribbean)


The most notable storm of 1989 was Hurricane Hugo, which tracked across the Lesser Antilles and into South Carolina; Hugo killed 49 and caused $10 billion ($15.6 billion in 2005 US dollars) in damage, becoming the most expensive Atlantic hurricane until Hurricane Andrew in the 1992 season. Tropical Storm Allison caused inland flooding from Texas to Mississippi, doing $500 million (1989 USD) in damage and killing eleven. Hurricane Chantal was responsible for $100 million (1989 dollars) in damage when it made landfall at High Island, Texas, killing thirteen.

1999 also had a significant storm hit the East Coast as well (Floyd), and also was the second year of a moderate to strong La Nina; the first year of a La Nina tends to be worst in the Caribbean with the U.S. having a higher threat in the second year (based on the last few).
Caribbean Sea

Upper ridging dominates the entire the Caribbean centered on two highs over the SW Caribbean and over the SE Caribbean.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are between the coast of Central America to 80W between 10N and the Greater Antilles. This plume of moisture is associated with a surface trough exceeding from a 1008 mb low at 11N/81W to Jamaica. Scattered high cirrus streamers seen within the anticyclonic flow of the ridge from Honduras, across the NW Caribbean Sea, Cuba, Hispaniola and into the Atlantic Ocean.

Meanwhile, a small pulse of convection near the ABC islands is associated with a small tropical wave along 68W north of 10N. Fair skies dominate the Eastern Caribbean this afternoon where an upper anticyclone is supporting a dry and stable airmass over the area. Weak surface ridging is allowing winds to remain light to moderate and without the cooling effects of the ocean, the heat will accumulate over some of the islands making for a warm afternoon.

by W456
516. tiggeriffic 11:37 PM GMT on November 10, 2007

Just want to add to the debate about acorns: I have been reading back through the posts today.

The association with cold weather to come is actually an old wive's tale and has never been shown to be statistically significant although it is true that lots of trees produce lots of seeds in particular years.

The reason for this is based on a predator-prey relationship, the prey being the trees and the predators being squirrels, jays etc..

In the UK we have two species that characteristically exhibit this pattern of a few acorns for a number of years then one year with a bumper crop. These two species are the English Oak (Quercus robur) and the Beech (Fagus sylvatica). I have used the scientific names to avoid confusion with the plethora of species with these names worldwide. Beech seeds are called mast and, as with oak, they are produced in abundance in what are known as 'mast years'

It appears that all of the trees in a geographical area communicate with each other in some way (more than likely hormonal via roots) and synchronise their production of seeds.

Why would this behaviour have evolved?

The reason is is that by doing this the trees can maintain the populations of their predators (squirrels etc.) at a low level, therefore, when they do have a mast year, there are not enough squirrels to consume all the seeds produced so many survive and grow into saplings.

The year after a mast year the squirrel population will have boomed due to high reproductive success the previous year. However, there will now not be enough acorns to feed all these squirrels so they will die and their population will decrease rapidly to the natural carrying capacity of the woodland.

By 'masting' therefore, trees can maintain predator populations at a lower level than they would otherwise be, thus benefitting seedling survival and ensuring that this trait is selected for.

As I said it has yet to be shown that masting is a reliable forecaster of weather, however, something in the environment must trigger the trees to begin exuding the masting hormones into the soil etc. to trigger a mast event. It is likely that this is weather/climate related but, rather than being a forecast, it will be a hindcast. In other words, something that has already happened rather than something that will happen.
SE Pacific Low

MOSCOW - A Russian oil tanker split in two during a fierce storm early Sunday, spilling some two million litres of fuel into a strait leading to the Black Sea.

Authorities say it's one of the worst environmental disasters in the region in years.

Two freighters carrying sulphur also sank nearby in the Strait of Kerch, a narrow strait linking the Black Sea and the smaller Sea of Azov to the northeast, said Sergei Petrov, a spokesman for the regional branch of Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry.

Operations to rescue the crews of all three ships were under way, officials said.

here is the rest of it.
456 How about a Black Sea satalite?
729. BtnTx
I would just like to take this moment to thank all of the Veterans everywhere for their sacrifices that have helped enable us to enjoy what freedoms we still have.
Thanks for posting those amazing images, 456. The little bastard over Finland has brought us two days of strong winds. I could see the wind direction changing at the flag on the watch tower of Linnanmäki today. Just before sunset it was Northwest... I guess we'll getting colder weather then. White reflecting snow is actually great, it alleviates the long period of darkness.
Black sea?
something taking shape shorly over 4 corners plains as split flow over ca nmex iteracts with strong fast moving flow coming of pacfic
nw into n ca and a building rtn flow off gulf r.i.s. should dev over central plains nor texas track e ne towards lower grt lakes
Oh I see:

All hopes died today of So Cal having a decent rainy season. Yet another storm system has died before it made it into So Cal. There was a good chance of rain for today. That died.

Rest of Today
Cloudy with isolated showers. Highs in the lower to mid 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
If that wasnt bad enough it looks like another wind event is likely going to take place. Without the rain that was expected this is just going to be more bad news.

Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Areas of north to northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with local gusts to 50 mph... strongest through and below passes and canyons...diminishing to 20 to 25 mph late in the day.
British Colombia/Gulf of Alaska Low

Highest reported wind from the islands off the coast of British Colombia was 26 knots by KINDAKUN, Canada (WQS) at 1900 UTC.

Lowest reported pressure was 977.0 mb by LANGARA, Canada (WJU) at 2000 UTC (4 PM AST/3PM EST).
Ocean reports

highest wind:

36 Knots Gusts to 46 Knots by buoy 46145 located near 54.38N 132.45W.

Lowest Pressure:

974.6 by a ship at 1900 UTC located near 53.70N 135.50W

Cyclone Status:

Becoming a warm occlusion system
Tropical Invest 96P

Located near 56S-1527E


Satellite imagery showed a very impressive tropical cyclone with clusters of thunderstorms near the center ventilated by an upper level anticyclone which is suggested by model data and banding features. Based on surface obs I estimated the pressure to be near 1005 millibars and estimated 10m winds near 20-25 knots. The JTWC has an estimated pressure of 1010 mb and winds of 15 knots as at 1800 UTC.

Tropical cyclones that develop south of 10S between 141E and 160E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Brisbane, Queensland. The next name on the list is Rebecca.

Cancun :)

1 month 23 days 20 hours 37 min

BTW, quit posting those chitty weather pics of BC.. I already know its cold and windy :(

Purple highs and lows are at 500 mb.
Purple arrows - 500 mb flow
Blue arrows - surface flow
Where are you from W456
St. Kitts, Leeward Islands, The Caribbean

Thank you Weather 456.

748. BtnTx
Good For you whitewabit! God bless our Veterans!
746. Weather456 9:31 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
St. Kitts, Leeward Islands, The Caribbean

There goes the hope that it was snowing where you are :) You kept posting storm sat pics of BC... the weather here is the pits, and you kept posting them to remind me. hehe so I was sort of hoping it might be snowing where you are :)
Tropical Cyclone 06B (Unnamed)

45 knots/55 knots gusts 1 minute sustained winds from The Joint Typhoon Warning Center as of 18:00 p.m. Universal Time Coordinates (UTC)

BOB 09/2007 (TC 06B JTWC)

25 knots/30 knots gusts (3 min sustained winds average) from India Meteorological Department as of 12:00 p.m. Universal Time Coordinates (UTC).
96P looking impressive

First Visible

Ya it is. To bad that Port Moresby Tropical Cyclone Warning Center is still under construction

It would be interesting if the storm got the name Alu.
The latest GFS thinks I'll get snow Wednesday.

I ♥ the GFS model. LOL
Tropical Depression 09 BOB/06B

Curved Band Pattern - 0.55 Spiral - DT 2.5

Shear Pattern - Not Applicable

CDO Central Feature - 1 LAT - CF 2.5
CDO Banding Feature - 0.5 SMALL - CB 0.5

Eye Feature - Not Applicable

Average T Number 3.0+2.5 = 5.5/2 = 2.75

2.75 is 40 knots/991 mb

Would that be the center at 11N 80.5W?

Invest 97S model
Tropical Cyclone Watch for the Southwest Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 02R Ariel?
oh wait forget that. That would be in the Indonesia responsibility until November 16th and maybe the first Javanese Mythological name will be used instead.
Tropical Depression 22W

TRMM 7 day accumulation

4 Hours Ago - CNN

MOSCOW, Russia (AP) -- A Russian oil tanker split in two during a fierce storm early Sunday, spilling some 560,000 gallons of fuel into a strait leading to the Black Sea in one of the worst environmental disasters in the region in years, authorities said.

Two freighters carrying sulfur also sank nearby in the Strait of Kerch, a narrow strait linking the Black Sea and the smaller Sea of Azov to the northeast, said Sergei Petrov, a spokesman for the regional branch of Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry.

Today - BBC

Thailand clean up after a week of floods by Denise Kane

Heavy rain has caused widespread flooding in parts of Thailand. After six days of torrential rain, around seven districts in Nakhon Si Thammarat, in southern Thailand were flooded including the island of Samui.

Around 30,000 people have been affected with over 100 schools having to be closed.

On the island of Samui heavy rain and floods cut off many roads and saw the suspension of dozens of flights. Around 1000 tourists were left stranded on Thursday. Local authorities have been working around the clock to pump floodwaters out of the affected areas. The flooding in Samui alone has been estimated to have caused up to 100 million baht (over 1.5 million pounds) in damage to roads and public utilities on the resort island.

Two days after the persistent rain stopped, and the floodwaters had now begun to recede thanks to a spell of drier and settled weather. Tourists came out to bask in the sunshine on Chaweng beach on Saturday. Despite some warm spells of sunshine, forecasters predict some scattered heavy thundery showers for many parts of southern Thailand over the next few days.

763. MrSea
wow 456 that European storm looked like the one from The Day After Tomorrow
764. MrSea
wow 456 that European storm looks like the one from The Day After Tomorrow!
765. MrSea

Can any of you guys see my portrait? (it's a sunset)
Weather456~ Thanks for digging out the sat pic on the Black Sea. The news outta there is just getting worse & worse.

In total, as many as ten ships sank or ran aground in the Strait of Kerch and in the nearby area of the Black Sea, and reports said three other sailors were dead or missing.

Looks like more than 1/2 a million gallons & still spilling with 18 ft seas from that storm being the cause.
Great blog on the upcoming Alaskan storm.

I'm sure there will be implications for the contiguous US down the line.
Is Anybody on right now
I wonder if this was the england storm:

-- At least two sailors died and 23 were missing Sunday when five ships sank in storms in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea, the official Russia Today Web site said.
For all the off-season weather pics and news plz visit my blog starting from 2morrow...it will have info about world droughts, storms, tropical cyclones, flooding, and geologic hazards (earthquake and volcanic eruptions). It will not only focus on natural disasters but beautiful weather pics from around the world.

Tnanks and Gnight
JF My son has a question in homework assignment that I need help with. I need a Clever opening for a meteorological news report
2 morrow i will also post a 24 hour GIF loop of the Black Sea Storm.
how 'bout you 456
Im pretty much just know NWS stuff cause i go there a lot. Im looking of a black sea area surface report now myself.
All righty then...I need to sogn off to figure out a clever meteo opening for a news cast.
how about

Australia warned to brace itself for active cyclone season


National Meteorological Services celebrate their 150th anniversary in 2004
have to go
thanks 456 - not much over there in English. PWS show a pressure dip consistent with a weak front but this sounds like a lot more than that.
TD 22W is now TS Tapah according to the JMA
Japan Meteorological Agency

22.2ºN 142.3ºE - 35 knots 998 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
At 9:00 am JST, Tropical Depression intensified into a tropical storm and was named "Tapah". The cyclone has 10 min sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots and is reported moving northeast at 12 knots.

Expected sustained winds at 0000z 13Nov is 35 knots.
So Hades I see 06B is strengthening...looks like we might actually see the third named storm
yup and surprisingly the IMD has it stronger than 05A (ARB 02/2007).

The new bulletin has the sustained winds at 55 km/h while they only had 05A as strong as 45 km/h.
Well if winds are currently at 55 km/h, then according their category scale, it only needs to reach 62 km/h to reach Cyclonic Storm status
786. beell
775. FloridaRick 1:05 AM GMT on November 12, 2007

FR, Maybe too late and not that clever but how bout...
"I may not know too much about Meterology, but I know what I like.."
(ba dump bump)

Here is the latest bulletin...

10.5ºN 91.5ºE - 30 knots (3 min sustained winds)

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea has intensified into a deep depression and moved northwest. The deep depression lays centered as of 18:00 UTC at 10.5N 91.5E or 200 kms southwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwest direction.

Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm or more ) are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 55 km/h with gust up to 65 km/h are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition is very rough to high around the system centre. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during the next 48 hours.
789. MrSea

Check out the bottom right
790. MrSea

791. MrSea
hello hello...looks like i came in too late
Hello - anyone around this evening?
anyone still here?
Hey tigger - how are you?
not too bad zoo, what about you?
definate eye forming now in severe tropical storm 06B
hanging out for a few minutes - been a busy day
how are the boys?
know the feeling...M-I-L still moving...Andy a crank pot...tried to clean house and do laundry to no avail...oh well...LOL
so far so good, other than the threatening 3's hitting and the 18 year old forgetting we exist since he left for college...LOL
working on projects that needed done - doesn't seem like they will ever get finished. Kids mostly hid in their bedroom - didn't want to get roped in!
My older son would only call when he needed something - money, directions, recipes, etc. My daughter was good, talked to her often.
lol...my next big project is replacing the molding and door in the hall bath...no one to help me on that one...unfortunately I am the carpenter...and I have a few items I have commissioned I need to paint within a week or so
I'm the fix it person too - generally I enjoy doing it, except when I get stressed because there are too many projects. Latest is painting the fish tank - its only been plain pine for two years... lol
do you work in addition to all the mayhem you deal with on a regular basis?
if you paint it, how will you see the fish??? LOL
just the base - the fish like to look out too!
yep, I work at the preschool Andy goes to... I am the Art Teacher there...work 40 per week plus all the rest of the mom, wife, mrs fixit, house keeper, cook, and chief bottle washer...I need a raise! roflmao
We have fish, 2 parakeets and a dog...guess who takes care of all of em? never mind...you already know!
See - I'm brain dead - you talked about that last night :} That's a full plate you've got there.
We have 2 dogs, 2 cats, 2 birds, and saltwater tank - I do most of the yelling - but everybody has to help. Delegating is my speciality!
don't worry, it is hard to keep track of other's when you don't have time to keep track of yourself! :0)
Where do you suppose everyone went today? There's been like 15 posts the whole day.
Last time I let Andy help me feed the dog...he poured the whole bag of food into the water dish...full of water...I figured it is easier to do it myself for a little while longer... and don't want him to clean the bird cage yet...but he does sweep around the cage for me and clean up their spillage from the seeds... I usually have to sweep the rest of the house by the time he is done tracking it and spilling it everywhere but he thinks he is helping...
most of them were on Geek's blog earlier
What is the base of your fish tank made out of?
Don't you love it - I was just talking about cat food soup! My kids use to love to dump the cat food into the water bowl - eww...

Lots of days I miss the little ones, but then there are days where I remember all the work.

I know you don't get to sit down from the time he gets up until he goes to bed.
Pine - its a 175 gallon tank - we use it as a divider between two rooms. I stained it mahogny the other day - but it made the room too dark, so then I had to prime it & repaint in the color of the walls. Always a mission.
nope, and even tho I am exhausted most days...I wouldn't have it any other way!
I loved it when the kids were little, and then I loved it when they were teenagers. Its still hard to get use to them being all grown up.
here is a trick to painting pine...between coats let it dry really good and rub it with a brown paper bag, like you are sanding it. It will take the grain of the wood right back down without leaving the scratches that sand paper does
I'll do that tomorrow - it needs to be sanded a little and probably another coat. I'm getting to be an expert - we redid our kitchen and I did the finish on all the cabinets. I can't even do my nails any more, they always get paint on them!
This is the first year I haven't done a Christmas Craft Show in forever...usually this time of year I am covered in paint...I do all the hand painted ornaments, gift ideas, etc and go to shows to sell them...i use to paint from after dinner till bout midnight...no time this year to do it.
I use to do ceramics, and take them to craft fairs. Haven't done it in ages, though. No time, always working and running after the kids.
I'm off - have to shower & take the paint off - lol
Mornin folks.
Have a good day tomorrow. Don't let the kids run over you.
Evening flaboy - guess you're just getting up?
maybe next year... i am glad the breathing is spontanious...I get so busy, I would forget to do it! rofl
nite to ya zoo! sleep well

hey fireman! how are ya this evening?
Correction, Evenin' folks. The one clock I didn't set back is over the computer desk, as I know I can just look at the screen for the correct time. I know you've heard of people who don't know anything, well I don't even suspect anything.lol
lol fireman...i look at my cell phone for the time...thank goodness it sets itself during daylight savings time!
Boy, there sure isn't much goin on in the tropics at the moment. I guess that will keep some of the trolls away.

I got the boys names out to a friend that posts a lot of prayer requests from their webbsite. Now we gotta start workin on their Mom so she doesn't have to go outside every fifteen minutes.lol
thanks for that...Im ok for now tho... lol...something weird happened yesterday... had a strange feeling to go to Burger King for dinner...not a craving...I didn't want it...anyway...in line in front of me was an older couple...don't remember how it came up but he is a pediatric neurologist at MUSC here in charleston...took the boys names and my phone number and said he would do everything in his power to make sure they both are seen there and by the same doctor even tho Michael is 18
Miracles still happen. Sounds like you just had one sprinkled over you.
gave me the shivers when it happened...then got the warm fuzzies...I needed that miracle too...been stressing bout this one. My favorite saying is:
I know God wont give me more than what I can handle...I just wish he didn't trust me so much!
I've had a few of those happenings that make all the hairs on the back of my neck stand up tall and proud. Been thru a bunch of those things He trusted me with, also.
I think what bugs me most is that I carry the gene that caused all this...I have the faith, I know it is not my fault per say...I worry about them, pain wise...that breaks my heart.
Tig, how cold is it up there. Oh I been trying to remember to tell you that I worked with some of the State Forestry guys from S.C. on that huge woods fire at Waycross Ga this summer. Great bunch of guys. I hope S.C. is proud of them.
always proud of em! Highs been in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s for the most part...
Evenin folks. Lookin' at the rain up north, wonderin'....WHERE'S ours?!!!
Evenin, Tig....zoo....flaboy
hey baja...how are ya?
Hmmm...I wonder if the blog's eatin' posts again *laffs*

I'm doin ok, Tig. My 'baby' is leavin in the morning *sighs*, figured I'd pop in for a few before I turn in. How are you? The kids?
ok all, I am whipped! gonna go to bed to keep it from floating into space...I hear it calling me! Take care to all and hugs and smooches to all for the prayers! Bouncin Out!
Huggerz, Tig...take care hun
quick post for baja...hug him tight but let go...kiss him once for me too! LOL
kids ok for now...no severe symptoms as of yet...

nite all!
That gene got started before you were born. You just happened to be a stepping stone for it to keep travelling. It's not you fault that it used you to get to the boys. When I asked for prayer for the boys, part of the reply was a request for a sister of theirs in Tenn that has tumors attacking the membrane around the brain. I think that one is genetic also. My father died when I was five of a heart condition that was severely aggravated by his smoking and alcohol use. It seems to have skipped me and I pray that it doesn't pop back up in the next generation or two. We aren't able to understand it, but we can't take the blame for it. Life is something you have to pass on, and that's what you did with the boys. That's all we can do.
Evenin, Baja. I hope you're doing fine. Seems like it's kinda quiet tonight. Well, that's OK. We have had enough chaos and annoyance for 2007.
Gnight, Tigger.
Evenin. Yeppers. Personally, I"m enjoyin' the quiet tonite. Hope you're havin a nice evenin
I'm doin' OK. I got one daughter still at home and I'm waiting for to come in from her boyfriend. Old dad is about to use the phone.lol
LOL. I have a 26..and an 18..both boys. Sure glad "I" didnt have girls!! How old's your daughter?
I have three of them. One is gonna turn 40 soon. (in another state.) The one at home is 26. youngest one is 24 and been married about 4yrs and expecting a girl. Got a boy that's 20 and married. I told someone the other day it took me 36 1/2 years to get them all raised to age 18. I really think that I deserve a medal but the kids don't.lol
LOL. Got yerself a brood, there!! *laffs* And I thought 9 years between kids was a long time!! *pats ya on the back* Better you than ME, flaboy!! LOL !!
Wait *roflmao!!!!* The DAUGHTER'S expecting, right? Not YOU? (I think I read that wrong *laffs*)
Hell, anyone that manages to get their kids to 18 THESE DAYS, deserves SOMETHING!!
My oldest is in Reno with 2 kids....and my youngest is moving to california tomorrow morning *sighs* Gonna be empty nest for me
My belly has been accused of "having one in the oven" but I'd be a lot richer if that was true. (It's no that big anyway!!)LOL
(sittin here laffin!!!) Good lord!! HERE'S a thought...maybe that IS the 'medal'!!!!! hehehe
Oh!! Any vets out there tonite? Lurkin or otherwise? Thank YOU!!
I'm out..y'all enjoy the rest of your evenin....5am rolls around too quick!! Take care *poof*
Naaa. My bride and I both thought she was doing me a favor for a while fixing me a strawberry shake every night with Breyers ice cream. That plus her good cookin took my waist from a 32 to a 38. I got it back down to 36 and it's OK.(for me)lol
Baja, Me: US NAVY Sept. 1961 to Sept. 65 Active duty, 65 to 67 reserve.

just going to insert this noting that Severe Cyclonic Storm 06B is becoming more severe.

NRL still notes 50knots but with that developing eye the 0900z advisory might make it higher soon.
Is that the storm that is south of India?
Evening FlaBoy
it would be east of India
865. flaboyinga 5:37 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Baja, Me: US NAVY Sept. 1961 to Sept. 65 Active duty, 65 to 67 reserve.

Dang your old :)
lets see... I was two when you joined..and I have been retired after 22 years in in 98
Orca, you got me there. I am old. I was in the carribean for the cuban missile blockade and I can't get the kids I mention it to that it really happened. They never heard of it. I think HMCS Mickmack might have been down there around that time, too.
I have definately heard about it... whoever hasn't needs to stay awake in school
What is the temperature where you are tonight?
Nice balmy 50 degress

That being said.. severe weather warning out right now
Thanks for the link. That's the one.
Micmac is probably an Indian word meaning don't spell this incorrectly.(and I did)
You should try and spell some of the west coast native names. Its bad enough that half of the places around here were named after spanish explorers, then throw in the native names.. makes for fun reading
Well I am off for the night.. hopefully no trees will fall into my Koi pond tonight
A good night to all and a better tomorrow.
10.5N 91.0E - 40 knots (3 min sustained winds) 1002 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea moved slighly west and intensified into a cyclonic storm. The cyclone was named "Sidr" and lays centered as of 3:00am UTC at 10.5N 91.0E or 220 kms southwest of Port Blair. The system is also likely to intensify further and move in a northwest direction.

Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm or more ) are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 70 km/h with gusts up to 80 km/h are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours.

Sea condition is high to very high around the system centre. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during the next 48 hours.

Current intensity T2.5, Maximum sustained surface winds speed 35-45 knots. Satellite imageries show intense to very intense convection associated with the system. Estimated Central Pressure is 1002 hPa.

The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a northwesterly direction. 24 hours forecast is T3.5

I wonder why the IMD pressure for this system is so high compared to the JTWC near 980 mb pressure.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 12Nov)
An area of convection (96P) persisted near 6.7S 152.1E or 340 NM east-northeast of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad area of organizing deep convection. Quikscat image shows a better defined low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows the system lies beneath an upper level anticyclone which is greatly enhancing convection. Vertical wind shear remains low and divergence aloft is favorable over the developing LLCC.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1003. Due to the favorable upper level environment an the improving LLCC, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to FAIR
883. 7544
looks like we might get a 94L also in the caribiean soon
NW Carib. is spinning a mid level interest this morning. Up earlier than the birds got a busy day. Have a good one
883: looks like we might get a 94L also in the caribiean soon

Presumably this is the HUGE blob of convection just to the NNE of 93L?

Looks impresssive. Is it spinning?

Is it likely to be inhibited by outflow from 93L or will that die now that it is over land allowing this blob to become an invest?

It does pear to have a clear water track in front of it should it get organised.
AVN floater loop shows the secondary blob and does appear to have some rotation.
Latest TWO

Showers and thunderstorms over portions of the southwestern
Caribbean Sea and Central America are associated with a broad area
of low pressure near the East Coast of southern Nicaragua. Due to
its proximity to land...significant development of this system is
not expected as it moves slowly westward...but locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Nicaragua...Honduras...and
Costa Rica during the next couple of days.
886: AVN floater loop shows the secondary blob and does appear to have some rotation.

Let's see what daylight brings.I know it is not scientific but I have a feeling about this one....
Morning All!

THIS is why I hate La Nina's living in Florida.
Good old 93 or 93 1/2, according to Cimms, will go west without question. High pressure covers the GOM at different locations throughout the steering layers. It would have to get below 940mb to even think about coming north, enter shear, adios amigo. Time to think about Turkey's and how we're going to pay for all the Christmas presents.
Good morning
Thanks Storm,looking toward next weekend up here,could be interesting.
Wow, slow as can be in here...any one to home?
It's not slow flood, you're just too fast for us!
hey folks. just looking at the situations here...something not so nice over the Ohio valley, coming my way. Another not-so-nice looking storm has come onshore on the NW coast...looks like the weathers gonna get hairy for the NE here for a few days. any thoughts?
The northern half of the country will take it on the chin this winter thanks to La Nina.
897. Floodman 2:45 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Wow, slow as can be in here...any one to home?

Its a holiday,I guess everyone sleeping late.

Happy Veteran's Day to all that served our country and Thanks.
Good morning,

Nothing going on in our boring part of the world but thats not true for other parts of the world. The Bay of Bengal is cranking up........

The cyclonic storm “SIDR” over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of to day the 12 November, 2007 over southeast Bay of Bengal near Lat. 11.0 Deg N and Long. 90.5 Deg E, about 250 Kms west-SOUTHWEST of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction initially.

Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm or more ) are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours.

Gale winds speed reaching 70-80 kmph are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition is high to very high around the system centre. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48 hours.

"Its a holiday,I guess everyone sleeping late."

Ivan is still passed out.
Notice that "SIDR" is winking at us!

I wonder if its a he or she?
shadow,is going to get interesting this weekend. There will be a coastal storm,but no agreement on strength and position.What worries me is there might be blocking setting up,which would slow things down.
That Cyclone will be a bigtime flood event/
It has potential to be nasty..........
NEwxGuy could you send us floridians some rain??
909. Ivansrvivr 2:57 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
NEwxGuy could you send us floridians some rain??

How about some snow
They often are in that part of the world. Katrina was a drop in the bucket compared w/ the flooding tropical systems cause over there.
I love snow!!! Bring it on. Send enough to make it stick though or its just a tease.
Twas quite a full bucket from our view.
Gotta go chase a lizard...BBL!!!
904. Ivansrvivr 8:54 AM CST on November 12, 2007
"Its a holiday,I guess everyone sleeping late."

Ivan is still passed out

Mo, you're supposed to keep an eye on him...
Yep, Pat...that was some bucket!
Something cool that Xerox is doing for the TROOPS!

If you go to this web site, www.LetsSayThanks.com you can pick out a thank you card and Xerox will print it and it will be sent to a soldier that is currently serving in Iraq. You can't pick out who gets it, but it will go to some member of the armed services.

How AMAZING it would be if we could get everyone we know to send one!!!

This is a great site.

Please send a card. It is FREE and it only takes a second.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if the soldiers received a bunch of these? Whether you are for or against the war, our guys and gals over there need to know we are behind them ...
912. Ivansrvivr 3:00 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
I love snow!!! Bring it on. Send enough to make it stick though or its just a tease.

Well,will have to wait till this weekend and see if we get any.
Mo, you're supposed to keep an eye on him...

I can see him passed out on the floor. He'll still be there by the time I catch this lizard and eat him.
I can see him passed out on the floor. He'll still be there by the time I catch this lizard and eat him.

Well, don't wake him...he'll only be crabby and hung over...
Not hung over, just crabby.