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North Carolina ignores science in sea level planning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2012

An interesting political battle is underway in North Carolina on how to plan for 21st century sea level rise, newsobserver.com reports. Sea level rise scientists commonly cite one meter (3.3 feet) as the expected global sea level rise by 2100, and more than a dozen science panels from coastal states, including a state-appointed science panel in North Carolina, agree. However, a coastal economic development group called NC-20, named for the 20 coastal counties in North Carolina, attacked the report, saying the science was flawed. NC-20 says the state should rely only on historical trends of sea level rise, and not plan for a future where sea level rise might accelerate. North Carolina should plan for only 8 inches of rise by 2100, based on the historical trend in Wilmington, NC, the group says. Republican state legislators introduced a bill that follows this logic, requiring the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission to make development plans assuming sea level rise will not accelerate. On Thursday, a state senate committee signed off on the bill, sending it to the full Senate. NC-20 also successfully made an "intense push" to get the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management, which is using a $5 million federal grant to analyze the impact of rising water, to lower its worst-case sea level rise scenario from 1 meter (39 inches) to 15 inches by 2100.


FIgure 1. Global sea level rise from 1992 - April 2012, as measured by three satellite instruments (TOPEX, Jason-1, and Jason-2.) Sea level rise has been relatively constant at about 3.1 mm per year (1.2 inches per decade) during this time period. The big downward dip during 2010 is due to the fact that year had a record amount of precipitation over land areas. By 2011, that precipitation had run-off into the oceans, bringing sea level back up again. Image credit: University of Colorado Sea Level Research Group.

Commentary
East Carolina University geologist Stan Riggs, a science panel member and coastal science expert, said of the proposed legislation, “We’re throwing this science out completely, and what’s proposed is just crazy for a state that used to be a leader in marine science. You can’t legislate the ocean, and you can’t legislate storms.” Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, had this to say in his latest post: "I would dismiss the proposed law as an attempt to legislate away that which stands in the way of our desires to consume and build for our personal imperatives. I would dismiss it as politics and note the names of the un-serious politicians for the next election." I agree with both of these assessments. The best science we have argues the planet will continue to warm, melting icecaps, causing accelerated sea level rise. Between 1900 - 2007, global sea level rose at 1.7 mm per year (Bindoff et al., 2007). Between 1993 - 2012, sea level rise accelerated to 3.1 mm per year, a 75% increase over the 20th century rate. If this accelerated rate continues to 2100, global sea level rise will be 10.7", which is higher than the 8" rise North Carolina is being told to plan for. The continuing accelerating trend in Greenland ice loss since 2000 I blogged about last month should make anyone leery of betting that sea level rise will not accelerate even more in the coming decades. Betting that sea level rise won't accelerate this century is like betting that a slowly intensifying tropical storm will maintain that slow rate of intensification, ignoring that the majority of the computer models are predicting the storm will rapidly intensify into a Category 3 hurricane at landfall. Sure, sometimes the models are wrong, but there is good science behind their predictions. If we wait until storm begins its rapid intensification to act, it will be a very costly mistake. The most sound action would be to prepare for the very plausible bad outcome our science is saying is most likely, instead of putting all of our chips on the low-probability, good-for-business outcome we hope for.

Sea, No Evil
Comedian Steven Cobert has a humorous piece on the new North Carolina sea level legislation in his June 4, 2012 Cobert Report. He uses the phrase "Sea, No Evil" to describe the affair. Some quotes:

"It would be a tragedy to lose precious coastal wildlife habitats to coastal flooding. Those habitats should be lost to developers' bulldozers."

"If your science gives you a result that you don't like, pass a law that the result is illegal--problem solved!"

Comedy Central reports on the recent decision by Virginia lawmakers to phase out use of the terms "climate change" and "sea level rise."

Resources:
Scientific America blog on the North Carolina sea level rise battle.
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a tropical tropical depression in the Western Caribbean this weekend, and takes the storm northwards into Florida early next week. None of the other models is going along with this idea, but there is some support for a broad area of low pressure developing in the Western Caribbean early next week in some of the other models. The waters offshore of North Carolina may be another region to watch, late this week, along the edge of a cold front moving off the U.S. East Coast.

I'll have a new post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Politics Sea level rise

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TAMPASHIELD:



I pretty sure that the power stations (And power plants) that help power these vehicles are going to lower CO2 emissions.
One thing that often get's overlooked in the either/or debate about electric cars is that while yes, batteries require power and therefor fuel, the centralization and central management (central as in "a central location" not "a central management entity") of power plants and fuel consumption plants could lower not just CO2 but many other atmospheric and water pollutants. But now that requires a smart grid and robust infrastructure. Which we do not have (yet)

It doesn't matter what fuel we're talking about but compare a handful of power plants equipped with technology for the reclamation, storage, recycling of waste products and secondary materials to thousands of belching cars/trucks/vans and gas stations. It's not a stretch to say that EV power stations are cleaner and generally safer for the surrounding communities than gas stations and storage tanks dotting the landscape and thousands of "last mile" tankers on the roads.

The supply and mining practices to extract the rare earth minerals required to make the millions upon millions of batteries is something else entirely. That's an issue. A real one and it's one of the reasons idealistic/opportunistic multi-billionaires are gung-ho about mining passing asteroids within the next 50 years. Fantasy? Reality? Who knows these days. Many have resources beyond and above governments but most of us on here likely won't live to see that first load come in if it ever does.

Humanity has survived for so long by intermixing everything; our genetics, our religions, our technologies; our cultures. There is no one perfect solution or perfect plan but there are a billion ideas. Ideas that can only work if based on strong science, sound policy, sound economics, and real faith that we can keep sputtering along this time line.
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Euro Model TX storm
What date on this model run, SC121? I was wondering when the Euro was going to jump on board.
Quoting Dodabear:


Gotta find me a Grothar quote somewhere. LOL


Here is a true Grothar quote for you. "A peacock today, a feather duster tomorrow". Remember, if you use this, you must give me credit for it.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Oh, sure. Now that I post it, you start coming out with the globes!!! :)
Quoting Grothar:


Here is a true Grothar quote for you. "A peacock today, a feather duster tomorrow". Remember, if you use this, you must give me credit for it.


DONE!!!!
Looks like tropical storm Chris

12Z Euro
Quoting ncstorm:
Looks like tropical storm Chris

12Z Euro

Still questions about phase though



Not sure if that first one is the right storm... If not this one is

Quoting HouGalv08:
Anything from Ghandi, Nelson Mandela, or Maya Angelou would be cool.


"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win."
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, sure. Now that I post it, you start coming out with the globes!!! :)
its all good never have too many globes


big picture
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Still questions about phase though



Not sure if that first one is the right storm... If not this one is



I think it will be subtropical if not tropical..but I dont think this will be a cold core system throughout its existence
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
RI?


No, just a pretty tropical storm. A minimal one at that.
360 FLWeatherFreak91: I don't really understand how everyone is still going on and on about global warming when Fukushima is spewing thousands of tons of radioactive waste into the atmosphere worldwide.

Oh good grief. Radioactive material ain't MAGIC like Caldicott and her ilk keep on insisting.
Could walk away from Daiichi to let it undergo as full a meltdown as its geometry and the ground allows*, and it still wouldn't come close to causing the havoc that GlobalWarming will cause within the insurance-table expectable lifetimes of most people.

Now if you go back into the blogs, you'll see I ain't even close to being "rah rah rah, sis boom bah" about nuclear power, but this nonsense that's being promulgated as if it were science has gotta stop. 'Bout like flying saucer enthusiasts drowning out useful reports about real aircraft flying over Area51.
Repeat it often enough, and you are aiding the amoral and totally unqualified owners of the nuclear power industry by drowning out those with legitimately deep concerns about how the nuclear industry is being operated and regulated. You are causing those most qualified to speak on the issue to be lumped in with "conspiracy nuts".

* Yeah, Honshu and possibly nearly all of the rest of the Japan would have to be evacuated. But guess what, the land in Japan ain't all that good for supporting people. The mineral resources range from "it sucks" to non-existent. Even the coal there is of such low quality that they've replaced it with imports for industrial uses.
The cultural reasons for small (boutique) farmholds is due to the hilly nature of Japan precluding agribusiness-scale operations. Without fertilizer imports and oil imports for fishing fleets, I strongly suspect that Japan would be incapable of feeding itself... at least not enough to prevent the Japanese from shrinking down nearly 1foot(30centimetres) to preWWII heights&weights due to malnutrition.
Meanwhile sea-level rise from GlobalWarming is slowly but surely killing off the MekongDelta of Vietnam, the "Rice Basket of Asia". Land so good at producing rice that the IMF and WorldBank essentially bribed the government and the farmers there to go into aquaculture when their rice exports forced world-market rice prices to drop so low that nobody could make enough money to justify replanting a new crop after Vietnam entered the market. And that's only one major growing region.
Plus resettling the population of Japan wouldn't be anywhere near as problematic as moving the population of eg Bangladesh, a large portion of which is expected to go underwater or to become too sea-salt contaminated to grow crops.
BTW: The "Concert for Bangladesh" famine was purely due to financial liquidity problems. There was plenty of grain in the country to feed its people. The problem was that the floods put farm laborers out of work: leaving them with no wages with which to purchase food; and certainly no money to spend on other products from vendors, which further stifled the economy.
New cell just popping up along 290.



Found the hail core.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL (T1204)
6:00 AM JST June 13 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Guchol (1002 hPa) located at 9.3N 140.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.6N 137.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Philippines
45 HRS: 12.6N 133.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Philippines
69 HRS: 14.8N 129.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Philippines

Tiyan, Guam NWS
===============

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE
Hmmm blog made interesting viewing today...Came to see what people were thinking on the possibility of tropical development .And instead It appeared that most of the weather bloggers were silenced or made feel uncomfortable and any anti climate change talk was laughed at, mocked so much for this being a blog based in the land of the free ..It appears more like a blog purge occurred
Latest GFS running 132 hours..
Quoting ncstorm:
Looks like tropical storm Chris

12Z Euro


Sitting right off the coast here in VA, not the best conditions for beachgoers in VA Beach/Norfolk. Rough surf, gusty winds and some showery weather.
Quoting lightning75:
Hmmm blog made interesting viewing today...Came to see what people were thinking on the possibility of tropical development .And instead It appeared that most of the weather bloggers were silenced or made feel uncomfortable and any anti climate change talk was laughed at, mocked so much for this being a blog based in the land of the free ..It appears more like a blog purge occurred
It certainly was not the first, and definitely will not be the last....Good evening to you 75..:)
Quoting ncstorm:


I think it will be subtropical if not tropical..but I dont think this will be a cold core system throughout its existence

Just had an extreme microburst here in Austin on Lake Travis.
Quoting hydrus:
Latest GFS running 132 hours..


Can you send me a link of those types of model maps? I can't seem to find them.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Can you send me a link of those types of model maps? I can't seem to find them.
Here you go T.F...Link
Interesting low pressure in the NW Atlantic this afternoon...kinda reminds me of the kind of pre-season subtropical/tropical activity we were seeing in April and May. Been talking about this one on my blog for the last days...will be doing another blog update this evening....
Quoting hydrus:
Here you go T.F...Link


Thanks!
If anything tries to get in the Gulf after the 20th, which seems plausible at this time, it will find favorable conditions. Also of note, look at that beautiful anticyclone over the East Atlantic.

168 gfs
..she Blinded Him with Science!!!

Quoting MoeWest:
Oh, by the way.

Hi!

New here posting stuff, not very interesting weather where i live, but if something cool happens you'll hear from me.

Big fan of site, and thank you Dr.M. for the great articles.


Welcome to our Madhouse.
Looks like the EPAC is gonna get interesting
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


big picture
That post completely messed with my eyes. I am glad I did not indulge this evening.
535. DDR
Good evening all
Looking at another rain event tonight in Trinidad and Tobago, 4+ inches here in the last 3 days.
Quoting Doppler22:
Looks like the EPAC is gonna get interesting
The East Pac is always interesting. Weird little storms over there. They do get large, but it is quite rare.Satellite image of Hurricane Linda near peak intensity off the southwest coast of Mexico
Formed September 9, 1997
Dissipated September 17, 1997
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
185 mph (295 km/h)
Lowest pressure 902 mbar (hPa); 26.64 inHg
(East Pacific record)
Fatalities None
Damage $3.2 million (1997 USD)
Areas affected Socorro Island, Southwestern Mexico, California
Quoting hydrus:
It certainly was not the first, and definitely will not be the last....Good evening to you 75..:)
While I disagree with some of what was said and the mentalities behind the statements I certainly hope no one got actually purged for their comments/opinions?

There wasn't anyone who said anything off topic, vulgar, or attacked anyone else (except for that one person going off on the topic of abortion). Yeah. That was... unneeded.

All in all while some stuff was borderline it all made for an interesting read which I think stands under scrutiny.
TXPQ28 KNES 122120
TCSWNP

A. 05W (GUCHOL)

B. 12/2101Z

C. 9.9N

D. 140.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/AMSU/TMI

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/1655Z 9.6N 141.4E AMSU
12/1909Z 10.0N 141.1E TMI


...SCHWARTZ

867
WUUS54 KHGX 122231
SVRHGX
TXC201-122315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0117.120612T2231Z-120612T2315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
531 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 518 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS CLUSTER WAS LOCATED FROM HUMBLE TO BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL OT ALDINE TO NORTHWEST HOUSTON...AND MOVING SOUTH
AT 25 MPH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING ON
INTENSITY BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM.
THIS STORM HAS A LONG HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOUSTON...CHANNELVIEW...CLOVERLEAF...HUMBLE...ALDI NE...
GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS AND SHELDON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. THIS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.



LAT...LON 2962 9535 2987 9554 3003 9539 3003 9526
2980 9502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 338DEG 22KT 2999 9536
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The automobile industry is already making that transition away from oil converted to gas cars to electric vehicles that require less gas uses and less CO2 emissions. I would like to see it strictly ran on battery, so we don't have to use fuel anymore.



Don't use fuel anymore...?

Battery's get their energy from rainbows...?

And please scale all the renewable choices to fit current demand...or even 1970s demand...
WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE WAS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION, WHICH WAS BASED ON A 121655Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON
KNES AND PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAK SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW WITH A SLIGHT PULL INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTH. THE SUBSIDENT
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT TO THE NORTHWEST IS INHIBITING
OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES
THIS SUBSIDENT, DRY REGION IS WEAKENING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 05W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, AS THE STR WEAKENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH
OF CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT TROUGH TAU 72;
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 05W IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING STR AND TURN MORE POLEWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREADS WITH NOGAPS AS THE FASTEST RECURVER AND GFS, GFDN,
AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RECURVATURE TIMING AND POSITION DUE
TO THE MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO BASED ON THE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS GUCHOL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH INTENSITY MODEL
GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

18z GFS finally develops and stays with its Caribbean storm by 144 hours, now lets see if it stays with it.
GTcooliebai: Well who else can you blame? Ever heard of human-induced Global Warming? Do animals burn fossil fuels?
419 TAMPASHIELD: I blame the Cows and their methane output.

And just how many wild cows do you know of? Nearly all exist for creating human agricultural products. Even then, much of their methane output can be blamed on feed that their digestive systems weren't evolved to efficiently handle. Grass: good. Clover and alfalfa and silage: not so good.
Grain: good for quick fattening; and for producing LOTS of methane.
546. DDR
local radar out of barbados.Link
WP052012 - Tropical Storm GUCHOL

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Looks like the 18z NOGAPS finally came to its senses and dropped the idea of a strong Gulf storm.
12Z NOGAPS and 18Z GFS are similar in their runs.



Quoting dogsgomoo:
While I disagree with some of what was said and the mentalities behind the statements I certainly hope no one got actually purged for their comments/opinions?

There wasn't anyone who said anything off topic, vulgar, or attacked anyone else (except for that one person going off on the topic of abortion). Yeah. That was... unneeded.

All in all while some stuff was borderline it all made for an interesting read which I think stands under scrutiny.
Anything to do with rising sea levels is certainly pertinent to this blog. When the word" purged " was used, I thought he meant that people were venting there point of view on the matter, not being purged from the blog.
Quoting Patrap:


Hey Patrap, Looks like the MJO is coming back sooner than later.
Interesting read about TWC firing one of its anchors of her military service..
Anchor Says She Was Fired Over Her Military Service
Quoting dakine2004:



Don't use fuel anymore...?

Battery's get their energy from rainbows...?

And please scale all the renewable choices to fit current demand...or even 1970s demand...
They are all kinds of batteries: wet cell, dry cell, molten salt, and reserve. Also they are 4 different cell types for batteries: galvanic cells, electrolytic cells, fuel cells, flow cells. Link
336 hours

Is Chris suppose to spin up after the front over the Appalation mountains move offshore
Hey folks,it looks like there will be a high chance to have Tropical Development in the NW Caribbean/GOM after the 20th of June.Look here and read the discussion.



Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting read about TWC firing one of its anchors..
Anchor Says She Was Fired Over Her Military Service


That's a shame, she was one best female anchors on TWC!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hey folks,it looks like there will be a high chance to have Tropical Development in the NW Caribbean/GOM after the 20th of June.Look here and read the discussion.



Link


That's only moderate.

I don't even think we have enough model consensus to even venture out and say that there will be "Chris" in the next 10 days.

The EPAC is where the main development should occur for at least the next 10 days

Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Missed me again but at least some parts of Texas got some rain, pretty severe just east of Austin, moving Southeast. 95 and sunny here with a very high dew point.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hey folks,it looks like there will be a high chance to have Tropical Development in the NW Caribbean/GOM after the 20th of June.Look here and read the discussion.



Link

I think in the next 2 weeks we could see anywhere from 0-3 storms form in the Atlantic, most likely with none of them being stronger than a weak/moderate TS... The most likely locations and scenarios would be a weak Caribbean storm, 1 or 2 weak storm off the East Coast or just northeast of the Bahamas, and an outside chance at a Gulf storm which could be a little stronger if it ends up materializing.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


That's only moderate.

I don't even think we have enough model consensus to even venture out and say that there will be "Chris" in the next 10 days.

The EPAC is where the main development should occur for at least the next 10 days


Why do we need it? The pattern supports extremely low pressure across the west Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico next week, so regardless of whether or not the models show it, there's a good chance we see a named system.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


That's only moderate.

I don't even think we have enough model consensus to even venture out and say that there will be "Chris" in the next 10 days.

The EPAC is where the main development should occur for at least the next 10 days

Holy mackerel! I don't think I have ever seen the white shadings, must be a strong MJO pulse.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Holy mackerel! I don't think I have ever seen the white shadings, must be a strong MJO pulse.

It is.

Quoting greentortuloni:


Yeah, bikes work for that...er, sort of.. at least three wheeled ones do. Expand your mind. Check out some of the new bikes.


Tell you what, you pedal 1,200 pounds of gravel and two weeks of groceries up here, 3,800' up, before the orange juice melts and the milk sours and I'll check out some bikes.

Oh, and do that 60 miles in and 60 miles back in a short day.

Bikes are great. Walking is great. But we invented powered machines for a reason.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
That could be part of the blame but there are more humans on this planet than cows.


There are a lot of cows on the planet because humans caused there to be.

We are responsible for most of the cow burp methane.
466 Grothar: "I think, therefore I am." ( I wasn't there at the time, but I think a French guy said that)

Shoulda said "I think I think, therefore I think I am... Of course, my thinking could be wrong."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why do we need it? The pattern supports extremely low pressure across the west Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico next week, so regardless of whether or not the models show it, there's a good chance we see a named system.


Your going to need more than anomalously low pressures to get a decent named system out of this pattern. Some sort of 'catalyst' will need to be present. Otherwise, your just going to have a mass of poorly-organized convection meandering around for a couple of days.

So far, most of the models drag a loosely organized monsoonal low around for a while without much happening in terms of intensity.

Land interaction will play a large part in this situation as well.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Missed me again but at least some parts of Texas got some rain, pretty severe just east of Austin, moving Southeast. 95 and sunny here with a very high dew point.


Man that sucks. Yall could use the rain up there. The high dew point at least keeps the air some what moist so there isn't a huge outbreak of wild fires like there was last year. Hopefully we get a Tropical Storm into Texas next week so all your area can get some beneficial rain.

I am skeptical if this band up near College Station will make it here. It may leave some boundaries around to ignite some storms tomorrow but we will see. At least there is rain in Texas. Last year was a disaster and I hope I never experience that again.
I'm really digging this right now!

HPC has a low getting carried out by a stationary front in 6 days

Quoting TAMPASHIELD:



I pretty sure that the power stations (And power plants) that help power these vehicles are going to lower CO2 emissions.


Coal peaked at 57% of the US grid supply.

In 2011 coal furnished 42.2% of our electricity.

This year coal is running at 36% (or less) of our grid supply.

Last year wind contributed 3%.

Wind is an excellent partner for EVs. EVs can suck up all that good late night power that the wind so often provides. And that means that we can install much more wind generation on the grid without needing to increase storage.

I have to say the MCS chain reaction over the last 24 H in the south...last evening's MS/LA's MCS blending with last night's NE TX MCS,which weakened this morning but merged with a small MCS over central Texas today, which is now pounding Cameron to Palestine TX...is very impressive.

Link
Quoting dakine2004:



Don't use fuel anymore...?

Battery's get their energy from rainbows...?

And please scale all the renewable choices to fit current demand...or even 1970s demand...


What do you mean by "please scale all the renewable choices to fit current demand"?

Are you asking if there is enough wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, wave, hydro and biomass/gas potential to produce all the power we need?

With no fossil fuel inputs?

Quoting GTcooliebai:
They are all kinds of batteries: wet cell, dry cell, molten salt, and reserve. Also they are 4 different cell types for batteries: galvanic cells, electrolytic cells, fuel cells, flow cells. Link


when it comes to cars how about an opposing electro magnetic cell under the car body oppsite of the earths field

remember when we were children and tried to put two opposing magnets together there is a natural movement there

maybe we can finally get flying cars


lol
Perth storm round 2. Not as strong as round 1 but still pretty bad. Will have more info as it is only 7:30am there and reports of damage are just starting to come in.
Up to 50% for 94E.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting BobWallace:


Coal peaked at 57% of the US grid supply.

In 2011 coal furnished 42.2% of our electricity.

This year coal is running at 36% (or less) of our grid supply.

Last year wind contributed 3%.

Wind is an excellent partner for EVs. EVs can suck up all that good late night power that the wind so often provides. And that means that we can install much more wind generation on the grid without needing to increase storage.



It gets better. Say you don't need your car every day. If you recharge your EV overnight on cheaper power when demand is lower, you could use it as a power storage unit and feed it back to the household during the day.
Miami NWS Discussion

MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY TRY AND DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH LIGHT FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON
THURSDAY...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND AND
SPARK SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND STRETCH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE MAY TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND THEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH EAST NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE ATLANTIC...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW. SO ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE GULF COAST.
We could give North Carolina a break...
and pick on Virginia...

"... the Commonwealth of Virginia, which .... is taking a bit of the heat off North Carolina's legislature. In Virginia, as in North Carolina, reasonable lawmakers concerned about changing climate and sea levels commissioned a study. And like in North Carolina, less-reasonable types in the legislature couldn't stand the idea of addressing things like "sea level rise," which this piece from the Virginian-Pilot says are considered "liberal code words." So in order to pass through the legislature the study addressed "recurrent flooding" instead.

Dumb enough, and at least the Virginian legislators didn't try to legislate the scientific methods as their counterparts in NC had. The problem is, where the Virginia legislators chose language out of fear, the Virginian-Pilot unwittingly piled on. Suggesting that "sea level rise" and "climate change" are perceived as "liberal code words" is perfectly reasonable; unreasonable people do perceive them as such. BIll sponsor Chris Stolle called "sea level rise" "a left-wing term," after all. "

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/20 12/06/12/et-tu-virginia-again-with-the-sea-level-r ise/
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Up to 50% for 94E.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Let's see if this one makes it up to 60% and goes poof.

Why isn't SHIPS and other models being run on the invests?
They have go to be out of their trees, at least if their trees are going to be above sea level "plus,":-
"An interesting political battle is underway in North Carolina on how to plan for 21st century sea level rise, newsobserver.com reports. Sea level rise scientists commonly cite one meter (3.3 feet) as the expected global sea level rise by 2100,"

Really at the end of the day, who are they kidding? This sea level rise, or rather "land reduction theory,"Is just a game to play until somebody thinks of a solution to tomorrows problems:-
IE. population explosion, droughts, catastrophic storms, plagues, and not last and not least cos I cant think of anymore mind boggling features after this one:-
Sea level rise:-
Its/That's not the problem. Sea level rise is only ONE of the noticeable side effects of global warming. The fact that the sea comes up a few feet might be a problem if you are in downtown New York but not a worry if you are in Las Vegas!
Its the other things that are going to happen with all this warming that are the worry and they aren't going to wind Joe public up with that one yet, are they?
Best not upset the apple cart!
there are ways
we as a human race
just have to be
willing to try it
Well I'm glad I wasn't on here earlier with the name calling and GW debates going nowhere..yeah.So I see that in the near term sub tropical development is possible.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
HPC has a low getting carried out by a stationary front in 6 days



That is supportive of the latest GFS runs.
472

WHXX01 KMIA 122115

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2115 UTC TUE JUN 12 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942012) 20120612 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120612 1800 120613 0600 120613 1800 120614 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 6.6N 86.5W 7.2N 87.7W 8.5N 88.7W 10.3N 90.0W

BAMD 6.6N 86.5W 6.9N 88.1W 7.7N 89.1W 9.0N 89.9W

BAMM 6.6N 86.5W 7.3N 88.1W 8.5N 89.3W 10.3N 90.5W

LBAR 6.6N 86.5W 7.0N 88.6W 7.9N 90.9W 9.1N 93.3W

SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 48KTS 59KTS

DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 48KTS 59KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120614 1800 120615 1800 120616 1800 120617 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.2N 91.3W 15.4N 93.6W 18.4N 95.2W 19.1N 96.7W

BAMD 11.1N 90.6W 15.7N 91.8W 18.8N 91.9W 18.6N 90.4W

BAMM 12.5N 91.7W 16.6N 94.0W 19.0N 95.5W 19.1N 97.0W

LBAR 10.5N 95.7W 14.3N 100.4W 19.1N 103.9W 23.0N 105.5W

SHIP 69KTS 68KTS 64KTS 61KTS

DSHP 69KTS 50KTS 34KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 6.6N LONCUR = 86.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

LATM12 = 6.1N LONM12 = 83.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT

LATM24 = 6.1N LONM24 = 80.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Let's see if this one makes it up to 60% and goes poof.

Why isn't SHIPS and other models being run on the invests?


First run of SHIP was runned for 94E not for 95E.


Quoting AussieStorm:
Perth storm round 2. Not as strong as round 1 but still pretty bad. Will have more info as it is only 7:30am there and reports of damage are just starting to come in.


looks like another beaut is on the way for tomorrow...

A firefighter watches a backfire set to protect a ranch along Grimes Canyon Road in Ventura County in 2009. (Los Angeles Times / June 12, 2012)


Global warming could lead to more wildfire in California: study



By Bettina Boxall

June 12, 2012, 11:24 a.m.

California and the West, which have experienced a surge in wildfire during the last decade, can expect more of the same with global warming, according to a study published Tuesday.

“A lot of the West, California included, really does look like it’s headed into a more fire-prone future,” said Max Moritz, a UC Cooperative Extension wildfire specialist and lead author of a new paper that examined climate change’s likely effects on global fire patterns.

The American West will not be alone, according to the research, published in the journal Ecosphere. While the forecast for the next few decades is less certain, by century’s end, much of the world will experience more wildfire than it does now, the study concluded.

That includes the tundra and forests of the Far North, temperate grasslands and regions with a Mediterranean climate such as Southern California. Notable exceptions include tropical rain forests, where increased rainfall could actually decrease wildfire.

The team of UC Berkeley scientists who led the study adapted an approach that has been used to evaluate the effect of climate change on plants and animals and applied it to wildfire. They gathered global wildfire and climate data for roughly the last decade and examined climate variables that affect fuel availability.

Using 16 different global climate models, they then developed forecasts for the future. "Most of the previous wildfire projection studies focused on specific regions of the world, or relied upon only a handful of climate models," said co-author Katherine Hayhoe, director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University.

Rising temperatures lengthen the fire season and dry out vegetation, making it more flammable, especially in mountain forests. But the authors said that temperature is not the only, or necessarily even the dominant, factor in many landscapes where changing precipitation patterns will modify wildfire cycles.

More rain in the tropics could decrease fire. In other areas that are not so wet, it could increase plant growth, producing more fuel to burn. And while diminished rainfall dries out vegetation, it can also reduce fuel levels by stunting plant growth, cutting the potential for fire.

“Fire is not going anywhere,” Moritz said, adding that the study results emphasize the need “to rethink how we live with fire and take it more seriously.
Is there still indication that we could have chris off the east coast in a day or two? I'm hearing different opinions...experts?
Quoting hydrus:
Anything to do with rising sea levels is certainly pertinent to this blog. When the word" purged " was used, I thought he meant that people were venting there point of view on the matter, not being purged from the blog.
Ah. Misunderstood. Understood.
Quoting Progster:


looks like another beaut is on the way for tomorrow...

That was last night. I am almost 1 day ahead of you guys there in the ol' US of A.
Current time here in Sydney is 9:45am Wednesday June 13.
I think that this W carib system will follow a track simmilar to the GFS but hight in strength somewhere in the range of moderate TS to weak hurricane 75mph-80mph
Quoting tropicfreak:
Is there still indication that we could have chris off the east coast in a day or two? I'm hearing different opinions...experts?
Some frontal system is suppose to come off the coast.A low could stall and if it stays their long enough over the gulf stream it could get some sub-tropical characteristics.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Is there still indication that we could have chris off the east coast in a day or two? I'm hearing different opinions...experts?


It's possible, but it will probably be sub-tropical at best.
Quoting Patrap:
Northern Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins)



Nice clouds over East Texas. Do you have a loop?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think that this W carib system will follow a track simmilar to the GFS but hight in strength somewhere in the range of moderate TS to weak hurricane 75mph-80mph


Heading towards the Norther Gulf Coast States? That is completely feasible
604. txjac
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Missed me again but at least some parts of Texas got some rain, pretty severe just east of Austin, moving Southeast. 95 and sunny here with a very high dew point.


Nothing for me either at this point in time ...
Quoting AussieStorm:

That was last night. I am almost 1 day ahead of you guy there in the ol' US of A.
Current time here in Sydney is 9:45am Wednesday June 13.


No, I mean the next low forecast to be near 50S 100E at 00Z UTC Wednesday; gets pretty close to SW AU as a sharp trof by 00Z Thursday.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Heading towards the Norther Gulf Coast States? That is completely feasible

no heads to NW bahamas if it does impact the US it would most likly be the SE section of Florida
.
NCEP Ensembles



CMC Ensembles
HOT and DRY in Puerto Rico!!!! Until When? :'(
It was so hot and steamy here today.I felt as though I lived in the amazon rather than D.C.Now all the moisture has been robbed from me and I'm sitting on here drinking mounds of water now.
Quoting Progster:


No, I mean the next low forecast to be near 50S 100E at 00Z UTC Wednesday; gets pretty close to SW AU as a sharp trof by 00Z Thursday.

Not really. Sundays system was 986mb low and last nights was a 992mb low. the next one to come through will only be a 1005mb front.



As you can see, Adelaide will be the next major city to get last nights low.
93E's problem was not time, but the environment. 94E's problem doesn't look to be the environment, but time may be an issue to how strong it becomes.

SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 7 0 8 12 9 14 5 7 11 7
SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.8 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8
700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 77 76 76 78 81 82 79 74 72 73
HEAT CONTENT 26 25 23 19 15 12 29 64 55 0 20 10 0
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Nice clouds over East Texas. Do you have a loop?




Quoting PlazaRed:
They have go to be out of their trees, at least if their trees are going to be above sea level "plus,":-
"An interesting political battle is underway in North Carolina on how to plan for 21st century sea level rise, newsobserver.com reports. Sea level rise scientists commonly cite one meter (3.3 feet) as the expected global sea level rise by 2100,"

Really at the end of the day, who are they kidding? This sea level rise, or rather "land reduction theory,"Is just a game to play until somebody thinks of a solution to tomorrows problems:-
IE. population explosion, droughts, catastrophic storms, plagues, and not last and not least cos I cant think of anymore mind boggling features after this one:-
Sea level rise:-
Its/That's not the problem. Sea level rise is only ONE of the noticeable side effects of global warming. The fact that the sea comes up a few feet might be a problem if you are in downtown New York but not a worry if you are in Las Vegas!
Its the other things that are going to happen with all this warming that are the worry and they aren't going to wind Joe public up with that one yet, are they?
Best not upset the apple cart!


They're not kidding anyone. At this point they are being malevolent. They know what the science says. They know what the facts are. But they are purposely ignoring, distorting, and/or lying for their own ends.

No amount of legislation will change reality. Sorry NC legislature, but insurance companies certainly aren't going to listen to your inane proclamations when it comes to determining insurance premiums or whether or not to insure at all. They're going to stick with the science and the facts.
574 BobWallace: Coal peaked at 57% of the US grid supply.
In 2011 coal furnished 42.2% of our electricity.
This year coal is running at 36% (or less) of our grid supply.
Last year wind contributed 3%.
Wind is an excellent partner for EVs. EVs can suck up all that good late night power that the wind so often provides. And that means that we can install much more wind generation on the grid without needing to increase storage.

582 Progster: It gets better. Say you don't need your car every day. If you recharge your EV overnight on cheaper power when demand is lower, you could use it as a power storage unit and feed it back to the household during the day.

It gets even better. A sufficiently LARGE number of charge&discharge cycles would weaken car batteries to the point that they're no longer efficient enough for fast acceleration or for longer commutes.
BUT those batteries would still be highly useful for storing power from photovoltaics and windturbines. That in turn creates a market for used batteries that would strongly subsidize the cost of replacements.
florida.will.follow.n.car.!
Sure was nice of the Doc to say "NORTH Carolina"....
I'm waiting to see where that east coast system starts to materialize.Alberto practically spun out of now where.We'll see where this goes.
Quoting aspectre:
BobWallace: Coal peaked at 57% of the US grid supply.
In 2011 coal furnished 42.2% of our electricity.
This year coal is running at 36% (or less) of our grid supply.
Last year wind contributed 3%.
Wind is an excellent partner for EVs. EVs can suck up all that good late night power that the wind so often provides. And that means that we can install much more wind generation on the grid without needing to increase storage.

582 Progster: It gets better. Say you don't need your car every day. If you recharge your EV overnight on cheaper power when demand is lower, you could use it as a power storage unit and feed it back to the household during the day.

It gets even better. A sufficiently LARGE number of charge&discharge cycles would weaken car batteries to the point that they're no longer efficient enough for fast acceleration or for longer commutes.
BUT those batteries would still be HIGHLY useful for storing power from photovoltaics and windturbines. That in turn creates a market for used batteries that would strongly subsidize the cost of replacements.


That sounds like an opportunity :)
We should start seeing signs off the East Coast tomorrow for anything trying to develop.
Two storms or one storm??
Quoting txjac:


Nothing for me either at this point in time ...
I am just happy it cooled off. Went from 97 to 74 pretty fast but no rain, winds near 40 mph now. Lots of major wind damage in Milam County I am hearing.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am just happy it cooled off. Went from 97 to 74 pretty fast but no rain, winds near 40 mph now. Lots of major wind damage in Milam County I am hearing.

That wouldn't surprise me. That was a pretty nasty bow when it was rolling through those parts.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We should start seeing signs off the East Coast tomorrow for anything trying to develop.
This time a little further North, like off Cape Hatteras (maybe SE), then moving to the N/NNE, unlike Beryl and Alberto.
628. txjac
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am just happy it cooled off. Went from 97 to 74 pretty fast but no rain, winds near 40 mph now. Lots of major wind damage in Milam County I am hearing.


Yea, it did cool down, feels so much better than it did earlier. I'm greedy though, would love to see some rain.

We got a few drops earlier ...and when I say few I mean a few
I just wrote a blog containing my thoughts on tropical activity in the Atlantic for the next couple weeks if you're interested.
Thx and two storms or one storm??
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I just wrote a blog containing my thoughts on tropical activity in the Atlantic for the next couple weeks if you're interested.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We should start seeing signs off the East Coast tomorrow for anything trying to develop.
Hi tawx13 do you know what day are the models predicting this imaginary ts to reach ts status?
Aussie, post 619.
Was looking at some similar shots from S/W UK last week.
Bad seas.
I'm quite convinced that local Climate Changed has occurred in Florida, and that the "typical summer time pattern" is now more of a scarcity than typical. June really looks like its lining right up with the last several years have been. It's funny because, it seems forecasters aren't willing to accept this yet. The reason for why I say this is that every year for several years now most of the rainfall we get in the rain season now comes from a stalled front or an upper trough with a westerly flow where we get several days of intense rain till it floods then it drys out some for a while before the pattern returns again. Well forecasters continue to say things like "this is very rare for June" yet it happens all the time, and every year now. Furthermore, they continue to say that "we will return to a more typical summer time pattern" a southeast flow with scattered thunderstorms, yet it never actually does switch over, We just stay in a westerly flow. If we do finally get an east wind usually then dry air is around and not much happens.


So far this summer is following the last several, it seems what we used to know about Florida is certainly changing. The daily scattered sea breeze storms in a southeast flow barely even exists anymore.
18z GFS shows the storm off the East Coast should be tropical enough to get named...



It also has a low further south but that one it keeps cold core.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Thx and two storms or one storm??

What do you mean?
18Z GFS
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What do you mean?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
18Z GFS

I think we'll see Chris from the storm off the East Coast (the first one in comment 634) and Debby from the Caribbean system.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What do you mean?

The 18z Gfs shows a very low close to depression status come into Cuba and linger in the bahamas and the other half that splits off of it goes toward south texas as a broad low that lethargically develops before being pushed back south by building high pressure. The models are still very "off"-I guess you could say- with the development of the NW caribbean system. The models continuously show a split of the storm or its very broad, but the model runs that do get it going Really crank it up... There's no telling... These model runs might just be shielded to the truth, which is the reality of the possible storm set-up, or vise-versa.
What I find so immature about NC-20's response to not planning for sea level rise, is that they fail to learn from all the millions of people who have learned the hard way for not planning safely for the future. Well, lets say that even if what scientists are telling them about sea level rise ends up being wrong, at least if they listen they are prepared and ready for the potential. Its a foolish gamble.

I don't know about you, but if I prepare for a hurricane that meteorologists are sure will hit me, but for whatever reason it doesn't, I'm not going to be saying oh crap darn I shouldn't have been so wise by preparing for that hurricane...


I see this all the time unfortunately, people would rather assume and take the lazy route, even if they know their assumption could likely be wrong, somehow assuming and thinking about their assumption being right is enough comfort for many.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm quite convinced that local Climate Changed has occurred in Florida, and that the "typical summer time pattern" is now more of a scarcity than typical. June really looks like its lining right up with the last several years have been. It's funny because, it seems forecasters aren't willing to accept this yet. The reason for why I say this is that every year for several years now most of the rainfall we get in the rain season now comes from a stalled front or an upper trough with a westerly flow where we get several days of intense rain till it floods then it drys out some for a while before the pattern returns again. Well forecasters continue to say things like "this is very rare for June" yet it happens all the time, and every year now. Furthermore, they continue to say that "we will return to a more typical summer time pattern" a southeast flow with scattered thunderstorms, yet it never actually does switch over, We just stay in a westerly flow. If we do finally get an east wind usually then dry air is around and not much happens.


So far this summer is following the last several, it seems what we used to know about Florida is certainly changing. The daily scattered sea breeze storms in a southeast flow barely even exists anymore.

Yeah, that is interesting.
I am noticing big changes here inTrinidad too.

For one thing, at the end of the month/season, whatever, the rainfall totals are looked at here and they say "Look. Same as usual.."

Well, it's not 'the same'.
The rains during the last couple of years have been quite different in that they are far more irregular and intense. Regular street flooding and overflowing rivers now in areas as a result of small intense cloudbursts.
Not the usual days of rain from ITCZ stuff.

Some of it may be attributed to increased buildings on hillsides etc, but not all.

I have certainly seen "changes " in weather patterns here over the last 5-10 years. And I've been observing them for longer than that.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am just happy it cooled off. Went from 97 to 74 pretty fast but no rain, winds near 40 mph now. Lots of major wind damage in Milam County I am hearing.

There was a rural/remote report in a small town in Bastrop County of severe winds(around 50-60 mph) that was uprooting small trees and wreaking havoc for about 10 minutes as it blew through, by the large storm heading southeast of Austin.
The World ended at 8:54 ?
Quoting pottery:
The World ended at 8:54 ?

I Don't know about you, but it's 8:11 here...lol :P
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm quite convinced that local Climate Changed has occurred in Florida, and that the "typical summer time pattern" is now more of a scarcity than typical. June really looks like its lining right up with the last several years have been. It's funny because, it seems forecasters aren't willing to accept this yet. The reason for why I say this is that every year for several years now most of the rainfall we get in the rain season now comes from a stalled front or an upper trough with a westerly flow where we get several days of intense rain till it floods then it drys out some for a while before the pattern returns again. Well forecasters continue to say things like "this is very rare for June" yet it happens all the time, and every year now. Furthermore, they continue to say that "we will return to a more typical summer time pattern" a southeast flow with scattered thunderstorms, yet it never actually does switch over, We just stay in a westerly flow. If we do finally get an east wind usually then dry air is around and not much happens.


So far this summer is following the last several, it seems what we used to know about Florida is certainly changing. The daily scattered sea breeze storms in a southeast flow barely even exists anymore.


Really? For me in NE Hillsborough, it's been raining every day pretty much since Beryl. Infact for me the local rain gauges have picked up more rain this month that pretty much all last summer. So far this year has been on pair with 2009 in terms of the rainy season which was the last true classical one.
Rapid Refresh (RAP)


The Rapid Refresh replaced the RUC as the NOAA next-generation hourly-updated assimilation/modeling system operational at NCEP at 12z on 1 May 2012.

Link
Quoting pottery:
The World ended at 8:54 ?


Yes...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Yes...

Yes?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Really? For me in NE Hillsborough, it's been raining every day pretty much since Beryl. Infact for me the local rain gauges have picked up more rain this month that pretty much all last summer. So far this year has been on pair with 2009 in terms of the rainy season which was the last true classical one.


Also last I checked most of Florida is still getting seabreeze storms most everyday lately and we have seen quite a few too, must be a force-field over his house lol
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Really? For me in NE Hillsborough, it's been raining every day pretty much since Beryl. Infact for me the local rain gauges have picked up more rain this month that pretty much all last summer. So far this year has been on pair with 2009 in terms of the rainy season which was the last true classical one.



We are getting plenty of rainfall, but just not the way we used to, I still believe we will get plenty of rainfall throughout this rainy season, but it still looks like it's coming in a different way.

I wasn't complaining about not getting rain, the climate has changed though. I think with El Nino though it will likely mean much wetter winters because it seems east coast troughs are just much stronger than they used to be. I thought the models were crazy at the start of June for bringing fronts down into Florida as we head into summer, I quickly forgot how much that has happened the last several years though, lol.

2009 was very wet and active yes, but 2009 wasn't the classic pattern either. However, it least it seems we will find a way to get our rain regardless of the source. Some here thought the drought we were in was part of this change, I don't think it is though. La Nina or at least La Nina-like upper air patterns have dominated this area for a long time which means drought in Florida, and that's why it was that way for so long. Thankfully though that stubborn pattern has departed.
94E is already down to 1005mb according to the 0z ATCF update... We may see a TD tomorrow.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Also last I checked most of Florida is still getting seabreeze storms most everyday lately and we have seen quite a few too, must be a force-field over his house lol



Nah its just Pinellas has really been lacking, even last week, we got mostly less than all the other counties pretty much. If you look at the drought index, we got the least relief than everyone else, and the current pattern the next several days means thunderstorms mostly from Hillsborough eastward, likely leaving my area out for a little while again. We still got over 5 inches from Tuesday through Friday, so I'm not crying, but we still need more, I'm still about 5 inches behind the year normal. My guess is we will eventually catch up though. It seems Pinellas gets less than the inland counties early in the wet season, but it seems we get a lot more here during August and September. It seems I get above average rain always in August and September, 10 to 12 inches at least for those 2 months each has been the trend for a while here for my rain gauge.


BTW, last year I had 18 inches in August 14 in September, but around 6 inches for June and only around 6.50 for July.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Also last I checked most of Florida is still getting seabreeze storms most everyday lately and we have seen quite a few too, must be a force-field over his house lol
Well in that case the force-field is also over my house. The seabreeze thunderstorms aren't working there way back to the beaches like they usually do in the Summertime. Must not have a Southeast wind flow yet.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
94E is already down to 1005mb according to the 0z ATCF update... We may see a TD tomorrow.


I'm leaning in that direction as well.
657. txjac
It's sprinkling at my house right now and thundering. I hope that we get some more rain than sprinkles. Was just outside and its cool and windy
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm leaning in that direction as well.

I'm scared to make that prediction.
This would probably reflect as a 40mph TS if it where to actually occur. GFS Ensembles 144hrs out.
660. MahFL
Quoting Doppler22:
Looks like the EPAC is gonna get interesting


Not really, they hardly ever hit land or cause much damage.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well in that case the force-field is also over my house. The seabreeze thunderstorms aren't working there way back to the beaches like they usually do in the Summertime. Must not have a Southeast wind flow yet.



That's what I was talking about, I guess they didn't notice, lol. Like I was saying above though, I noticed we tend to get less in June and July but seem to get hammered non stop in August and even September. We seem to get a lot of severe storms in those months too.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm scared to make that prediction.


Oh, you wuss. :P
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This would probably reflect as a 40mph TS if it where to actually occur. GFS Ensembles 144hrs out.

Four closed millibars? That's more of a moderate to upper-end tropical storm.
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, that is interesting.
I am noticing big changes here inTrinidad too.

For one thing, at the end of the month/season, whatever, the rainfall totals are looked at here and they say "Look. Same as usual.."

Well, it's not 'the same'.
The rains during the last couple of years have been quite different in that they are far more irregular and intense. Regular street flooding and overflowing rivers now in areas as a result of small intense cloudbursts.
Not the usual days of rain from ITCZ stuff.

Some of it may be attributed to increased buildings on hillsides etc, but not all.

I have certainly seen "changes " in weather patterns here over the last 5-10 years. And I've been observing them for longer than that.


We certainly can't know for sure because it would take some intense research, however it does seem some climate change has occurred in the tropics and sub-tropics. It's been about 5 to 10 years since the changes have happened around here as well.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
94E is already down to 1005mb according to the 0z ATCF update... We may see a TD tomorrow.

Probably...
It will likely head up Northwest then turn North toward Guatemala and El Salvador... Which means Carlotta would come across and die in Central America then regenerate as Chris in the Northwest Caribbean.
Virginia Excises Marxist Words, Like "Sea Level"

Jun 11, 2012 12:50 PM by Ilya Gerner

According to government measurements, sea levels have risen 14.5 inches in the past 100 years in some regions of coastal Virginia, and an additional 2 to 3 foot rise is projected to occur over the next hundred years.

But while rising waters are a problem for residents of Norfolk, the chief problem for Virginia lawmakers is the rising level of idiocy among their Tea Party-affiliated constituents, who view studies of sea levels as liberal conspiracies to "separate us from our money and control all land and water use." In essence, they're worried big government regulators will use science to steal the sand into which they've burrowed their heads.

Stuck between a Tea Party rock and a rising ocean, some lawmakers have come upon an ingenuous solution. Rather than follow North Carolina in suggesting a law that would make sea level rise illegal, they will simply not speak its name. Climate change is truly the Republican Voldemort…

Now it appears that "climate change" and "sea level rise" are being phased out, in Virginia at least, amid political pressure from the far right. Emerging labels include "increased flooding risk," "coastal resiliency" and, of course, "recurrent flooding."
State Del. Chris Stolle, R-Virginia Beach, who insisted on changing the "sea level rise" study in the General Assembly to one on "recurrent flooding," said he wants to get political speech out of the mix altogether.

He said "sea level rise" is a "left-wing term" that conjures up animosities on the right. So why bring it into the equation?
Indeed, many seemingly neutral terms are actually straight of a Marxist grad school seminar. At least someone's read the haunting opening lines of the Communist Manifesto, "A specter is haunting Europe — the specter of climate change," and recognized the left-wing refrain, "From each according to his abilities, to each according to his sea level rise."

However, while Virginia Republicans are to be applauded for ridding the language of "liberal code words" from "sea level rise" to "science," it's not clear how much further we can take this. The issue of "adrenal gland" health is an important one, but I'm not sure legislatures should be limited to writing laws that are anagrams of Ronald Reagan's name.
GFS showing low pressure parked on the South Texas coast approx hours 264 thru 360. Purely speculative at this point but interesting.

Link
I'm still going with the possibility of a TX storm within a week
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This would probably reflect as a 40mph TS if it where to actually occur. GFS Ensembles 144hrs out.

Finally something Solid and not broad and weak! - still a 40 mph Ts is weak... so :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Four closed millibars? That's more of a moderate to upper-end tropical storm.


All about the details...

Those increments are much different than the operational GFS.

Those are plotted on a 1mb/iso scale.

In addition, I really would stray away from that whole number of closed isobars delineates intensity theory.
WP052012 - Tropical Storm GUCHOL

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)Loop

..click image for Loop



Quoting MahFL:


Not really, they hardly ever hit land or cause much damage.

What? So they have to hit land to be interesting storms?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Four closed millibars? That's more of a moderate to upper-end tropical storm.

Nay. Maybe 50 Mph tops... :P
I always get a kick out of people who seem so outraged at this being a "GLOBAL WARMING BLOG".

Actually it's not.

What it is is a science, weather, and climatology blog.

You can't have either one of those without all of them... and to deny any part of them exists invalidates in part or in whole the whole shebang.
Quoting Stormchaser121:
I'm still going with the possibility of a TX storm within a week

The models are very Lethargic with the system in the caribbean, and i think its mainly due to the large MJO pulse, but I can see any type of tropical storm forming and lifting northward toward the gulf coast.
I imagine that NHC will have recon for 94E as it is a potentially dangerous system for Central America. Wednesdays TCPOD may have information about that.

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 121215
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0815 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-025

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
I definitely just saw the most vibrant double rainbow I have ever seen in my life.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I imagine that NHC will have recon for 94E as it is a potentially dangerous system for Central America.

Possibly. They don't have anything scheduled yet.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Nah its just Pinellas has really been lacking, even last week, we got mostly less than all the other counties pretty much. If you look at the drought index, we got the least relief than everyone else, and the current pattern the next several days means thunderstorms mostly from Hillsborough eastward, likely leaving my area out for a little while again. We still got over 5 inches from Tuesday through Friday, so I'm not crying, but we still need more, I'm still about 5 inches behind the year normal. My guess is we will eventually catch up though. It seems Pinellas gets less than the inland counties early in the wet season, but it seems we get a lot more here during August and September. It seems I get above average rain always in August and September, 10 to 12 inches at least for those 2 months each has been the trend for a while here for my rain gauge.


BTW, last year I had 18 inches in August 14 in September, but around 6 inches for June and only around 6.50 for July.


LOL Jed. I enjoy your posts and no offense but I got a chuckle out of your "only 6.5" last July. I've had my rain gauge for 14 months and this (June) is the first month I've exceeded that much rainfall.
Quoting Jedkins01:


We certainly can't know for sure because it would take some intense research, however it does seem some climate change has occurred in the tropics and sub-tropics. It's been about 5 to 10 years since the changes have happened around here as well.

Yep.
One verified fact is that here, the peaks in the mountains (3000') were almost ALWAYS hidden by cloud.
Even in the dry season.
Streams that came from up there ALWAYS flowed.

Now, there are very long periods (months) when we don't see this, and many of the streams are now seasonal.

The vegetation, and all that goes with it up there (Tropical Cloud Forest) is changing fast......
The vegetation lower down will be next, as the streams dry..

It's sad really.
The Caribbean should become more active in about 5 days or so.

PWAT surge associated with MJO should induce widespread convective. If it can consolidate without running out of water, then we may have a system out of this pattern.

Wow HPC 7 day!:)
685. txjac
I just love it when I see the "older" people on the blog (join date) come in and make a post. Hard to believe the post count of some of the people that have been around for so many years ...
I'm Gone... Goodnight everyone.
I might be on Tropics Talk On Thursday when we start seeing things in the Atlantic Materialize...
Quoting txjac:
I just love it when I see the "older" people on the blog (join date) come in and make a post. Hard to believe the post count of some of the people that have been around for so many years ...

Grothar used to blog in Sanscrit......
He has been around longer that dirt.
I noticed That me and TAWX13 Joined like months apart, yet he has over 14,000 more comments than me :O
I could've had a join date of 2008, but Decided to lurk first before realizing that joining was so easy!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Finally something Solid and not broad and weak! - still a 40 mph Ts is weak... so :P


Models like the GFS hardly forecast systems strengthening beyond cat 1.They are not very generous with intensity. They are however good for forecasting future activity and forecast tracks. Whenever the gfs and the ecmwf show a few tight isobars it usually means something is gonna go down.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I noticed That me and TAWX13 Joined like months apart, yet he has over 14,000 more comments than me :O
I could've had a join date of 2008, but Decided to lurk first before realizing that joining was so easy!

Hard to believe it's been 2 seasons since I've joined.
Time flies... :|
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm quite convinced that local Climate Changed has occurred in Florida, and that the "typical summer time pattern" is now more of a scarcity than typical. June really looks like its lining right up with the last several years have been. It's funny because, it seems forecasters aren't willing to accept this yet. The reason for why I say this is that every year for several years now most of the rainfall we get in the rain season now comes from a stalled front or an upper trough with a westerly flow where we get several days of intense rain till it floods then it drys out some for a while before the pattern returns again. Well forecasters continue to say things like "this is very rare for June" yet it happens all the time, and every year now. Furthermore, they continue to say that "we will return to a more typical summer time pattern" a southeast flow with scattered thunderstorms, yet it never actually does switch over, We just stay in a westerly flow. If we do finally get an east wind usually then dry air is around and not much happens.


So far this summer is following the last several, it seems what we used to know about Florida is certainly changing. The daily scattered sea breeze storms in a southeast flow barely even exists anymore.


Welcome to the negative PDO, which you are now experiencing as a decadal signal for the first time since you were born.
Quoting Bitmap7:


Models like the GFS hardly forecast systems strengthening beyond cat 1.They are not very generous with intensity. They are however good for forecasting future activity and forecast tracks. Whenever the gfs and the ecmwf show a few tight isobars it usually means something is gonna go down.

Yep :P
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I noticed That me and TAWX13 Joined like months apart, yet he has over 14,000 more comments than me :O
I could've had a join date of 2008, but Decided to lurk first before realizing that joining was so easy!

Yeah, I post a lot... :P
Quoting Levi32:


Welcome to the negative PDO, which you are now experiencing as a decadal signal for the first time since you were born.

Hey Levi!
Quoting Bitmap7:


Models like the GFS hardly forecast systems strengthening beyond cat 1.They are not very generous with intensity. They are however good for forecasting future activity and forecast tracks. Whenever the gfs and the ecmwf show a few tight isobars it usually means something is gonna go down.


Correct. I do not know the specifics, but it is widely known that global models have a hard time with intensity predictions. A 980 mb low on the GFS would probably be more equivalent to a Category 3.
Quoting StAugustineFL:


LOL Jed. I enjoy your posts and no offense but I got a chuckle out of your "only 6.5" last July. I've had my rain gauge for 14 months and this (June) is the first month I've exceeded that much rainfall.



Thank you, lol, just keep in mind I note "only" in relativity to the other 2 months which were absolute soakers. We were sort of an exception last year though. If I'm correct not all of Florida was quite as fortunate to get that much rainfall, surprisingly we were a bit of a bullseye.

2010 and 2008 were very dry for me though, I got barely above 40 inches for the year on those years, and the average is 54 here.
18Z GFS Ensemble Mean 250 wind forecast for 144 hours out. The Caribbean and much of the Gulf of Mexico is definitely in play for tropical mischief.

Quoting Levi32:


Welcome to the negative PDO, which you are now experiencing as a decadal signal for the first time since you were born.



ok?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
18Z GFS Ensemble Mean 250 wind forecast for 144 hours out. The Caribbean and much of the Gulf of Mexico is definitely in play for tropical mischief.


Sure is!
Quoting Jedkins01:


We certainly can't know for sure because it would take some intense research, however it does seem some climate change has occurred in the tropics and sub-tropics. It's been about 5 to 10 years since the changes have happened around here as well.
its been happening for awhile things changed in 2000 and
as we have progress to this point events
are occurring at a greater Frequency and are taking on a more global wide area of occurences
and this may only be the beginnings that we see
other effects are coming faster then expected
Quoting Jedkins01:



ok?

Just go with it man.... xD
Goodnight everyone.
OK, the "NEW MAIL" in the wumail thingy at the top of this page says I have one, in red.
When I click it, it shows the last mail I got was June 2.

If anyone sent me a message, it did not work.
I'm not ignoring anyone!
Quoting Jedkins01:



ok?

He was just pointing out something he found cool and was offering insight to why your weather has been the way it has. No need to see so uninterested. :p
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I post a lot... :P

That would be an understatement. You joined one day before me and you have a whopping 12000 more comments than me.
HAL, open the pod door.

GOES-13 Channel 3 (WV)


Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That would be an understatement. You joined one day before me and you have a whopping 12000 more comments than me.

See, you on the other hand don't post a lot. :P

Or maybe I just don't have a life lol.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Hey Levi!


Hey :)
Quoting Patrap:
HAL, open the pod door.

GOES-13 Channel 3 (WV)



You trying to get in, or out?
Enquiring minds want to know.

:):))
The 30 day SOI has tanked to El Nino threshold. Now we have to see if it stays below that -8 line or it stairsteps up and down.

Heh!
A violent little squall passing through, heavy rain with flashes and rumbles and wind....

I could hear it coming for about 5 minutes.
NICE !
715. MahFL
Quoting Jedkins01:
I don't know about you, but if I prepare for a hurricane that meteorologists are sure will hit me, but for whatever reason it doesn't, I'm not going to be saying oh crap..


You might be annoyed though if you spent $500 to evacuate your family and that evacuation was not needed.
do someone really think we will get Chris from the southeast coast as models are predicting?
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Are you done?

that's getting old...

Seriously, is the only time you post here to confront WxGeekVA?
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Are you done?

that's getting old...

Sounds like he stepped on your corns there.....
MODIS True Color images for 06/11/2012
Click any thumbnail for a full-resolution image


Yucatan Peninsula
Terra-1 12/06/11 1615 UTC


Florida and Bahamas
Terra-1 12/06/11 1615 UTC


Louisiana Coast
Terra-1 12/06/11 1615 UTC
I just wrote a blog on the rather active Northern Hemispheric tropics Enjoy, offer insight, tell me I'm lame, whatever you wanna do.
Quoting Jedkins01:



ok?


I'll put it in our Florida native tongue.

Them there waters in the ocean are colder and it aint gonna rain like it should.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Seriously, is the only time you post here to confront WxGeekVA?


Quoting pottery:

Sounds like he stepped on your corns there.....


Please don't quote him. I have him on ignore for a reason.
Cupola hit by minor MMOD strike, shutter closed for evaluations

June 12th, 2012 by Chris Bergin

Window 2 on the Cupola module has been hit by a minor MicroMeteoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) strike. With the window's protective shutter closed, per flight rules, ISS managers are evaluating photos of the damage downlinked from the International Space Station (ISS) before they are expected to give the crew clearance to reopen the shutter.



After arriving at the ISS with Node 3, during Endeavour's STS-130 mission, the European Space Agency (ESA) built Cupola has provided Station crews with a stunning view of the planet, often shared with the public via downlinked photography.

The module also hosts a Robotic Work Station (RWS), allowing crewmembers to actually see Visiting Vehicles (VVs) such as SpaceX's Dragon and Japan's HTV arrive for berthing, complimenting the camera views of their displays, allowing for increased situational awareness when operating the Station's robotic assets.

The Cupola's seven windows were exposed to space for the first time during STS-130's EVA-3, following the removal of the module's MLI blanket insulation by spacewalkers Bob Behnken and Nick Patrick.

After the spacewalkers removed the launch locks on the windows, the ISS crew cycled the window shields/shutters one at a time, providing them with the first view of the Earth from their new observation deck.

All of the windows weren't open at the same time, with the task simply used to check the shutters opened without a problem. A few hours later, all of the windows were opened together, an event that is now commonplace on the ISS.

The module has hardly suffered from any issues during its tour of duty with the orbital outpost, with only a minor temperature issue noted ahead of Dragon's arrival last month.

Through no fault of its own, the MMOD strike is a risk all spacecraft have to deal with, although exposed windows are built to withstand such impacts.

This latest strike, to Window 2 on the Cupola, looks more dramatic via close up photos, but is in reality very small and probably would not have been instantly obvious to crewmembers entering the module.

Cupola Window MMOD Strike On June 10, the crew reported an MMOD strike on Cupola window 2 and downlinked photos (full set available on L2) of it, noted L2 level ISS Status (LINK). The shutter for window 2 is closed now, as required by flight rules, until the MMOD strike has been evaluated.

Teams are working to determine the structural implications of the MMOD strike and clear the window 2 shutter for re-opening if possible.

The flight rules are naturally cautious, in order to ensure a large amount of margin for crew safety. It is highly likely this will be cleared as an issue after the evaluations are completed.

It is understood that this MMOD strike is the first to be suffered by a Cupola window.

In the event of the damage being more serious, on-orbit replacement of an entire window is a design feature. Such a replacement would require an EVA to fit an external pressure cover to allow for the changeout, with a pressure cover requiring a flight up to the ISS.

The window is made up of four panes an inner scratch pane to protect the pressure pane from accidental damage, two pressure panes 25mm thick to maintain cabin pressure, and finally an outer debris pane. The debris panes can be replaced individually, via EVAs.

Strikes of these tiny pieces of debris are relatively commonplace and are only immediately noticeable when they impact on areas such as windows.

UK researchers have developed a porous material that can preferentially soak up and store CO2 from the atmosphere, exhaust systems, smoke stacks...

Interesting article.

I found that on the BBC news website if anyone is interested.
Some of my rainbow pictures from earlier:







Unfortunately, they were taken with my crappy phone camera, so they really don't do it justice.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'll put it in our Florida native tongue.

Them there waters in the ocean are colder and it aint gonna rain like it should.



LOL, it wasn't the PDO mentioning that was strange to me, it's that apparently I'm a 2000's baby.
Quoting Patrap:
HAL, open the pod door.

GOES-13 Channel 3 (WV)




door is wide open

welcome aboard hal



Currently 72 and light rain at my house.
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


He may have...

It's tiring seeing this trash on here every single day.

I guess so.

I'm out.
Stay safe, all.
Uh why are we bringing politics up again?..Back to weather please :).
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Currently 72 and light rain at my house.

You are so lucky. It is currently 82 degrees outside, SAL is forecast to arrive in our area. Today the heat record in San Juan set in 1979 was tied, 94 degrees. It reached 97 degrees in Mayaguez.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You are so lucky. It is currently 82 degrees outside, SAL is forecast to arrive in our area. Today the heat record in San Juan set in 1979 was tied, 94 degrees. It reached 97 degrees in Mayaguez.

Nobody told you to live in Puerto Rico.
Best picture I've seen of it so far (not taken by me):



Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Yes.

I confront the wrongdoer when possible.



sounds like you need a wipe
does walmart sell head-on?
The weather moving towards Galveston and CC has done a reverse TS Don move.

Where did it go?
Quoting K8eCane:
does walmart sell head-on?


I don't think it does, sadly.
740. MTWX
Quoting MahFL:


You might be annoyed though if you spent $500 to evacuate your family and that evacuation was not needed.


A risk you take by living in a Hurricane prone area...

That's why I live close enough to the coast to make a weekend out of it, but far enough away that hurricanes don't give us too much hassle.
94E may briefly attain hurricane status but the main consensus is strong tropical storm intensity before landfall. After landfall takes place, a piece of the storm will likely move into the west Caribbean and could form a tropical cyclone.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
94E may briefly attain hurricane status but the main consensus is strong tropical storm intensity before landfall. After landfall takes place, a piece of the storm will likely move into the west Caribbean and could form a tropical cyclone.


Barring any unforeseen spikes in the wind shear forecast, I should add. :P
possible tornado in New Mexico:
Quoting txjac:
I just love it when I see the "older" people on the blog (join date) come in and make a post. Hard to believe the post count of some of the people that have been around for so many years ...



I don't comment often, but I lurk...and try to learn. Been lurking since well before I joined too.
Quoting Speeky:
possible tornado in New Mexico:

That's quite an intense supercell! Tornado warned too.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
854 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

NMC009-041-130315-
/O.CON.KABQ.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120613T0315Z/
CURRY-ROOSEVELT-
854 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL ROOSEVELT AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM MDT...

AT 854 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN CURRY
COUNTY...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORTALES...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY..
RURAL CURRY COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. LEAVE AUTOMOBILES AND MOBILE HOMES. MOVE
INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE WALLS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF A TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. GO TO A SAFE PLACE NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 10365 3441 10333 3420 10345 3433 10366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 295DEG 16KT 3433 10356

$$


34
Quoting Speeky:
possible tornado in New Mexico:
Hate tornadoes with a passion I am scare of them. last night I had a dream where tornadoes where all over my area.
Quoting K8eCane:
does walmart sell head-on?

Apply Directly to the forehead! LOL! Storms missed me tonight...slid off to the east. Dry in Cedar Park, Texas atm.

665
WFUS54 KMAF 130248
TORMAF
TXC003-135-130315-
/O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0015.120613T0248Z-120613T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ECTOR COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL ANDREWS COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 946 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GOLDSMITH...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANDREWS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
GOLDSMITH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE
HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WEST TEXAS.



LAT...LON 3209 10240 3192 10266 3205 10278 3221 10273
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 301DEG 16KT 3208 10270
750. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You are so lucky. It is currently 82 degrees outside, SAL is forecast to arrive in our area. Today the heat record in San Juan set in 1979 was tied, 94 degrees. It reached 97 degrees in Mayaguez.


Yeah, it's too hot too early, but on the other hand, excellent beach weather. xD
751. MTWX
Quoting Speeky:
possible tornado in New Mexico:


Tornado has been reported southwest of Clovis!
I have updated my tropical Atlantic blog tonight...just now. I keep on rolling these out every 24 hours these days...enjoy....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
94E may briefly attain hurricane status but the main consensus is strong tropical storm intensity before landfall. After landfall takes place, a piece of the storm will likely move into the west Caribbean and could form a tropical cyclone.


The stronger it is, and the more north it turns. Will increase the chances of a storm forming in the nw Caribbean once Carlotta traverses central America which is shown by the models.
Quoting allancalderini:
Hate tornadoes with a passion I am scare of them. last night I had a dream where tornadoes where all over my area.


I take it that you live in New Mexico?

If that is the case, no worris there appears to be one storm of many that has any capabilities of producing a tornado.

but tornadoes in New Mexico, though rare, can still be extremely dangerous are you by chance living in the county called "Curry" if so you may want to seek shelter. This cell looks dangerous
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, it's too hot too early, but on the other hand, excellent beach weather. xD


So far in June no rain measured in San Juan and every day of the month,the maximun temperature has been 90+.
Quoting MTWX:


Tornado has been reported southwest of Clovis!


This storm looks really dangerous. Radar says it may have 4.00 inch hail. THATS HUGE!
758. MTWX
Another one heading toward Odessa, TX

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ECTOR COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL ANDREWS COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 946 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GOLDSMITH...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANDREWS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
GOLDSMITH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE
HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WEST TEXAS.

759. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


So far in June no rain measured in San Juan and every day of the month,the maximun temperature has been 90+.


A little rain wouldn't be bad, my plants are feeling it and at this rate we might end up with a drought.
Quoting MTWX:
Another one heading toward Odessa, TX

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ECTOR COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL ANDREWS COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 946 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GOLDSMITH...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANDREWS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
GOLDSMITH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE
HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WEST TEXAS.


While there might be a tornado there, it looks more like a straight-line wind event to me.

761. MTWX
Quoting Speeky:


This storm looks really dangerous. Radar says it may have 4.00 inch hail. THATS HUGE!


Hail up to 2" being reported from that storm, and hail to 3" being reported from the Odessa cell!!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


So far in June no rain measured in San Juan and every day of the month,the maximun temperature has been 90+.

I heard a communications tower in Manatí caught fire.
763. MTWX
Quoting 1900hurricane:

While there might be a tornado there, it looks more like a straight-line wind event to me.



Decent signatures on both cells...

Link
looks like this guy is weakening. Could be turning into a straight line wind event though.
The 00z surface analysis has a new low added off Carolinas. This area has to be watched as some models develop.The question is if this is going to be non tropical or sub tropical.

767. MTWX
4.50" hail report just came in on the Clovis cell!!
Quoting Speeky:
looks like this guy is weakening. Could be turning into a straight line wind event though.

It might be. The thing that concerns me though is that it is turning more right. I don't think I've ever seen a cell weaken and turn right before.

Both tornado warned cells are in a band of pretty high helicities, for what it's worth:

Quoting MTWX:
4.50" hail report just came in on the Clovis cell!!


HOLY CRAP
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 00z surface analysis has a new low added off Carolinas. This area has to be watched as some models develop.The question is if this is going to be non tropical or sub tropical.



I don't see any evidence of an upper low moving with the system, so my guess would be tropical, albeit sheared.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't see any evidence of an upper low moving with the system, so my guess would be tropical, albeit sheared.

May not get sheared too bad.



773. MTWX
Quoting Speeky:
looks like this guy is weakening. Could be turning into a straight line wind event though.


Wouldn't say it was... Actually looks to be strengthening. Definite supercell characteristics showing on both base and composite reflectivity, as well as storm relative!

Anvil stretches almost halfway across the TX panhandle!

Link
Looks like we may have a straight line going in south central Nebraska:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

May not get sheared too bad.





But the GFS wants to increase the upper flow over the system.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 00z surface analysis has a new low added off Carolinas. This area has to be watched as some models develop.The question is if this is going to be non tropical or sub tropical.


I am probably the only one on this blog tonight not buying into this system. To produce anything tropical out of this system...upper ridge over the area has to persist for upper outflow. Instead...the models "squeeze out" this upper ridge as explained in the intro section of a discussion I posted yesterday. What is left when the upper ridge is squeezed away? Upper-level winds straight out of the west that will shear this area.
Quoting KoritheMan:


But the GFS wants to increase the upper flow over the system.

Yeah...I think this will not develop...its gonna get sheared. If anything...the more intriguing feature is the NW Atlantic surface low further offshore which I think has a small chance to become subtropical in the next day or two.
Quoting MTWX:


Wouldn't say it was... Actually looks to be strengthening. Definite supercell characteristics showing on both base and composite reflectivity, as well as storm relative!

Anvil stretches almost halfway across the TX panhandle!

Link


I thought it was weakening because it lost its deffient radar hook and its dbZ was at a blasting 74 now its around a 68 - 70. Its Hail signature was at 4.00 now its at a 3.75

but I do agree it does seem to have the look of possiblity for a restregnthening.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I am probably the only one on this blog tonight not buying into this system.
I'm not either.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm not either.


I'm not either, that makes 3, personally I never get too carried away about systems that don't even exist yet :)
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm not either, that makes 3, personally I never get too carried away about systems that don't even exist yet :)


It does exist though:



Look off the Carolinas.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm not either, that makes 3, personally I never get too carried away about systems that don't even exist yet :)

Make that four. I would like to see something that actually has the ability to develop (a blob or something) before I seriously consider any development.
Here is more bad news for Puerto Rico as no rain,very warm temperatures and fire danger will be the rule for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
948 PM AST TUE JUN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE ATLC WILL GRADUALLY FILL
WITH RIDGE PATTERN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE TROUGHING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO
THE MID 90S TODAY AND AREA REMAINED DRY. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN AND
ANY RELIEF TO THE HEAT LOOK VERY DISMAL NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...MODELS SHOW A CLOSED H25 HIGH DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER PR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPS BETWEEN
950-700 MB. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO VERY HOT WEATHER HOTTER THAN IT
HAS BEEN LATELY AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS HIT THE
CENTURY MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTE THAT MAYAGUEZ HIT 97 TODAY AND
99F A FEW DAYS AGO.

MODELS SHOW BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...LAST THREE TROPICAL
WAVES THAT HAVE MOVED ACROSS HAVE BEEN VERY DISAPPOINTING AND THIS
ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE THE FOURTH IN A ROW. THE WAVE WILL BE
FIGHTING AGAINST BUILDING/RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND UNFAVORABLE
TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION. EVEN IF SOME SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND WOULD NOT INCREASE THE FUEL
OR SOIL MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY TO PREVENT A SIG FIRE WEATHER
THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG RAINFALL DEFICITS PAST 30 DAYS AND HOT WEATHER
HAVE DRIED OUT FUELS AND MADE THEM VULNERABLE TO BURNING WITH
FIRES OBSERVED ALL ACROSS THE NORTH COAST AS OBSERVED BY ME TODAY.
NO SIG RAINS ARE FORESEEN IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING AND BRING FUELS CLOSER TO IGNITION IN
OTHER AREAS. SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS SFC THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. VERY HOT
AND WINDY WEATHER WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ARE LIKELY. WHILE
CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE UNDER STRONG RIDGE...VERY DRY FUELS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
OFFSET AMY NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT STABLE CONDITIONS MIGHT HAVE.

&&

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2012 AT SJU LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE FOR THE
RECORD BOOKS. SO FAR THE AVG AND MAXT HAS BEEN 85.2F AND 91.9F
DEGS RESPECTIVELY SECOND ONLY TO JUNE 1988 IN BOTH CATEGORIES.
TODAY ALSO MARKS THE FOURTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPS AOA 90F
AND THE TWELFTH DAY IN A ROW WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN. THERE IS A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL AT LEAST GET HALF WAY TO THE
MAXIMUM CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS AOA 90F DEG (35 DAYS) IN 1981
AND ALSO TO THE MAXIMUM CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN
(36 DAYS) IN 2005.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 94 80 94 / 0 10 10 10
STT 82 89 82 89 / 0 10 10 10
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I am probably the only one on this blog tonight not buying into this system. To produce anything tropical out of this system...upper ridge over the area has to persist for upper outflow. Instead...the models "squeeze out" this upper ridge as explained in the intro section of a discussion I posted yesterday. What is left when the upper ridge is squeezed away? Upper-level winds straight out of the west that will shear this area.


I am not either.

I am thinking this may just be the usual large monsoonal system that struggles to consolidate due to its size and disorganization, which will eventually get pulled upwards by a weakness in a ridge. Of course it will simultaneously frustrate the blogosphere as it dishes out hope at dmax and failure to impress at dmin.
787. MTWX
Quoting Speeky:


I thought it was weakening because it lost its deffient radar hook and its dbZ was at a blasting 74 now its around a 68 - 70. Its Hail signature was at 4.00 now its at a 3.75

but I do agree it does seem to have the look of possiblity for a restregnthening.


I don't usually trust the "hail meter" on the WU radar.. It's a good place to start, but I've learned to read the hail signature, if you will, from the base reflectivity images.

The clutter limiter feature also tends to knock down the intesities of the storms themselves too.

On a seperate note: Another report of 4.5" hail just came in from that cell!
Quoting KoritheMan:


It does exist though:



Look off the Carolinas.
Alright I confess, I was thinking of a completely different system, lol. Well, I'm not buying that one either yet.
Quoting Bitmap7:


I am not either.

I am thinking this may just be the usual large monsoonal system that struggles to consolidate due to its size and disorganization, which will eventually get pulled upwards by a weakness in a ridge. Of course it will simultaneously frustrate the blogosphere as it dishes out hope at dmax and failure to impress at dmin.

He was talking about the low pressure off the North Carolina and Virginia border, not a possible tropical cyclone in the Caribbean.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It does exist though:



Look off the Carolinas.

Yep...it exists alright...but its gonna be a dud for tropical development as the 3 of us agree...

Moving on into the NW Atlantic...does anyone else find the deep-layered low at 35N 60W interesting in the slightest? It seems to resemble early stages of subtropical development (for example 91-L in April or 92-L in May)...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He was talking about the low pressure off the North Carolina and Virginia border, not a possible tropical cyclone in the Caribbean.


Oh my bad. Well that's my thoughts on the Caribbean system. If I see a blob to observe in the next few days I might change my outlook.
when will we see a cat 5 hurricane I'm bored
Quoting Patrap:



That New Mexico supercell is looking very good right now.
This guy looks really, really impressive now:
Apologies for the political themed post earlier mates. Didn't mean to rustle anyones jimmies.
Quoting windshear1993:
when will we see a cat 5 hurricane I'm bored

They don't occur every year in the Atlantic or E-Pac...so you might be bored the whole season....
Quoting windshear1993:
when will we see a cat 5 hurricane I'm bored
anytime after august the 28th till sept 20th

they can happen anytime but that period normally is the greatest chance
799. MTWX
Quoting Speeky:
This guy looks really, really impressive now:


Now using your loop you got there, you can see the hail core (just NE of the hook). Generally when you see reflections of 65+ dBZ in a confined area like that, it is usually large hail (1.5"+).

PS: Hope I'm being helpful, and not seeming like I am arguing with you.
Quoting Bitmap7:


I am not either.

I am thinking this may just be the usual large monsoonal system that struggles to consolidate due to its size and disorganization, which will eventually get pulled upwards by a weakness in a ridge. Of course it will simultaneously frustrate the blogosphere as it dishes out hope at dmax and failure to impress at dmin.


We're talking about the Atlantic low, not the Caribbean system.
801. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is more bad news for Puerto Rico as no rain,very warm temperatures and fire danger will be the rule for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
948 PM AST TUE JUN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE ATLC WILL GRADUALLY FILL
WITH RIDGE PATTERN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE TROUGHING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO
THE MID 90S TODAY AND AREA REMAINED DRY. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN AND
ANY RELIEF TO THE HEAT LOOK VERY DISMAL NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...MODELS SHOW A CLOSED H25 HIGH DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER PR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPS BETWEEN
950-700 MB. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO VERY HOT WEATHER HOTTER THAN IT
HAS BEEN LATELY AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS HIT THE
CENTURY MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTE THAT MAYAGUEZ HIT 97 TODAY AND
99F A FEW DAYS AGO.

MODELS SHOW BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...LAST THREE TROPICAL
WAVES THAT HAVE MOVED ACROSS HAVE BEEN VERY DISAPPOINTING AND THIS
ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE THE FOURTH IN A ROW. THE WAVE WILL BE
FIGHTING AGAINST BUILDING/RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND UNFAVORABLE
TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION. EVEN IF SOME SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND WOULD NOT INCREASE THE FUEL
OR SOIL MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY TO PREVENT A SIG FIRE WEATHER
THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG RAINFALL DEFICITS PAST 30 DAYS AND HOT WEATHER
HAVE DRIED OUT FUELS AND MADE THEM VULNERABLE TO BURNING WITH
FIRES OBSERVED ALL ACROSS THE NORTH COAST AS OBSERVED BY ME TODAY.
NO SIG RAINS ARE FORESEEN IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING AND BRING FUELS CLOSER TO IGNITION IN
OTHER AREAS. SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS SFC THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. VERY HOT
AND WINDY WEATHER WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ARE LIKELY. WHILE
CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE UNDER STRONG RIDGE...VERY DRY FUELS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
OFFSET AMY NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT STABLE CONDITIONS MIGHT HAVE.

&&

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2012 AT SJU LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE FOR THE
RECORD BOOKS. SO FAR THE AVG AND MAXT HAS BEEN 85.2F AND 91.9F
DEGS RESPECTIVELY SECOND ONLY TO JUNE 1988 IN BOTH CATEGORIES.
TODAY ALSO MARKS THE FOURTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPS AOA 90F
AND THE TWELFTH DAY IN A ROW WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN. THERE IS A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL AT LEAST GET HALF WAY TO THE
MAXIMUM CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS AOA 90F DEG (35 DAYS) IN 1981
AND ALSO TO THE MAXIMUM CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN
(36 DAYS) IN 2005.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 94 80 94 / 0 10 10 10
STT 82 89 82 89 / 0 10 10 10

Wish i could send some rain your way,its been raining here off and on 3 days in a row now.

Quoting MTWX:


PS: Hope I'm being helpful, and not seeming like I am arguing with you.
Stop picking on everyone, Nick!

;)
Quoting KoritheMan:


We're talking about the Atlantic low, not the Caribbean system.

LOL!
Quoting KoritheMan:


We're talking about the Atlantic low, not the Caribbean system.


Yeah I was informed of that by TropicalAnalystwx13
807. MTWX
Quoting KoritheMan:

Stop picking on everyone, Nick!

;)


Hey now! I stay out of your Tropical business, you stay out of my Severe Storms!! LOL!!
JTWC has Guchol as a minimal tropical storm with 35 kt (40 mph) sustained winds when Dvorak number suggest the storm is nearly a typhoon...

13/0232 UTC 10.0N 140.0E T3.5/3.5 GUCHOL -- West Pacific

I'm still going with a TX storm coming up...this is a hurricane zone forecasted this year. This guy has been accurate for many years.
Quoting Bitmap7:


Yeah I was informed of that by TropicalAnalystwx13

LOL...this demo of miscommunication is why tropical cyclone naming came about...so everyone knows which system is which....
Just a heads up that I'll be going on vacation starting this Saturday going to Denver then head across Nebraska,Iowa to head to Chicago! Interesting to see what weird weather me and my dad will face?
Quoting Stormchaser121:
I'm still going with a TX storm coming up...this is a hurricane zone forecasted this year. This guy has been accurate for many years.

What other landfall hotspots does this guy think for this year?
Other views of the Venice tornado...


Hello Levi. Would you be kind enough to expand/expound upon the PDO you mentioned earlier?

Thank you!
No wishy washy on this run.

I think the new GFS is showing doomicane x1000.
I don't think this what will happen but high pressure is building on top of the storm and pushing it into long island from the east due west as a hurricane. Then it goes across the great Lakes and dissipates over Wisconsin. This is not my forecast this is the new GFS I promise.
Link
will the GFS 00Z run I find very interesting however I do not think in terms of the caribbean storm will be quite like that I think it will develop move ENE-NE to somewhere in the area around the caymans and central cuba abd become stationary for about a day and to strengthen before moving off to the N-NNE and impact florida antway let us see and wait
Good evening everyone!
also to note Nam 00Z run is hinting on W Caribbean development as well
822. TXCWC
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
No wishy washy on this run.



nope, not surprised at all though, as models have been "hinting" that GOMEX is in play for something in the next 7-10 days. I am a bit surprised by shown track however as this has generally not been what models have been showing. We shall see if this holds for next few model run cycles (track).
Quoting Jedkins01:






Now son wut hav I TOLD YUUU, if ya AIN'T VOTE REPUBLICAN, yer a DAGGUM COMUNIST TRAIDER!!!!


Jedkins, I always like your posts minus this one. Not all Republicans are rednecks or illiterate
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
also to note Nam 00Z run is hinting on W Caribbean development as well

Hey wunderkid...how are you doing?
can someone put up the doomcane models...?
It sure looks like the tropical Atlantic has a lot more moisture this year in it than years previous.
Link
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
can someone put up the doomcane models...?


Follow my link from post 818.
Quoting cheaterwon:
It sure looks like the tropical Atlantic has a lot more moisture this year in it than years previous.
Link

I think so too!
Quoting TXCWC:


nope, not surprised at all though, as models have been "hinting" that GOMEX is in play for something in the next 7-10 days. I am a bit surprised by shown track however as this has generally not been what models have been showing. We shall see if this holds for next few model run cycles (track).


Yeah NOGAPS looks to be back with that track too. But not as a hurricane this run. I guess next is the Canadian. We'll see what they say.
For those of you all that love SST maps you got to check this loop of real time SST. Its to cool.
Link
See ya manana..A blessed night to all...:)
Quoting cheaterwon:
For those of you all that love SST maps you got to check this loop of real time SST. Its to cool.
Link
Definitely some good water temp charts out there..
Quoting hydrus:
Definitely some good water temp charts out there..


That one sure is pretty.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130532
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Hmmm...somebody's wrong.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmm...somebody's wrong.


I'm going with this model because of the weather patterns setting up. They are setting up the way they were when both Allisons developed and struck the TX coast. (1989 & 2001)
Something Wicked This way Comes... Well Maybe Next Week.



NOGAPS same storm but a bit faster to develop.

Link



Have a good night everyone!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL (T1204)
15:00 PM JST June 13 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Guchol (1000 hPa) located at 10.0N 139.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 11.3N 136.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Philippines
48 HRS: 13.4N 131.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Philippines
72 HRS: 16.3N 127.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of Philippines

Tiyan, Guam NWS
===============

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP IN YAP STATE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1055 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...

PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES.

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC003-FLC033-132145-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120613T2145Z/
/BRPF1.1.ER.120613T0152Z.120613T0600Z.120613T1545 Z.NO/
1055 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
THE PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 10PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.4 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.9 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW LATE MORNING.


$$
\Looks like NOGAPS AND GFS on board together for a storm near florida in 180 hours?
Quoting hydrus:
Anything to do with rising sea levels is certainly pertinent to this blog. When the word" purged " was used, I thought he meant that people were venting there point of view on the matter, not being purged from the blog.


No I am sad to say I was referring to the weather guys being driven off at the time , and the anti Climate change guys being mocked, people boasting of reporting people and comments removed and some people awaiting bans. But from what I have been told and observed as a long time lurker previous to signing up thats not an unusual occurrence.sigh
PS I am a female.



Quoting dogsgomoo:
Ah. Misunderstood. Understood.


Nope got it right first time out

(Note to self try to be a bit clearer )

And a good Morning to you all
Well this clears nothing up. Lol But hey, it does say Fujiwara. :)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL LATE FRI WHEN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER GA/AL WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH N
FLORIDA...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NE GULF. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE RIDGING TO THE N WEAKENS AND THE
FRONT DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. PRIOR TO THIS...THE 00Z
GFS AND THE 12/12Z ECMWF INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW
PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE GULF THU LINGERING THROUGH
FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS DROPPED THIS FEATURE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THIS FINE SCALE FEATURE. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD A BLEND OF
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AS IT IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ADJACENT WATERS. SEE THE
SW N ATLC SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.


CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
THE 0108 UTC AND 0250 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW A MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W.
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BE THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF THE
TRADE WINDS THROUGH SAT. THE MODELS SHOW THIS TROPICAL WAVE
SLOWING ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS AS THE BUILDING TROUGHING OVER FL
AND THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO DRAW THE WAVE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK. HOWEVER...THIS IS GOING TO HAVE TO HAPPEN SOON FOR THE
FAST MOVING WAVE TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH.
A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THIS TROUGHING AND THE
GENERAL PATTERN N OF THE CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN FRI. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE E PACIFIC WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD FRI AND SAT AS A BROAD MID LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS. THE NOGAPS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE
MODELS HERE...CARRYING A 1002 MB SURFACE ON THE N COAST OF
HONDURAS BY MON EVENING. THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC...BUT THE GFS IS STARTING TO TREND TOWARD A DEEPER
SOLUTION. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE PREFERRED BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS WHICH IS CLOSER TO A MODEL CONSENSUS.


SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TODAY. THE ANCHOR
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OFFSHORE NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER WHILE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR 30N78W
AT 14/06Z. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SURFACE WAVE
COMPARED TO RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL FUJIWARA
WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANCHOR LOW LATE THU INTO
FRI. THE DETAILS ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE TWO VORT MAXES AND
THEIR TRACKS IS UP IN THE AIR. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AGREEMENT
IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ON A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 30N70 AT
16/00Z. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 200 NM NE OF THIS POSITION AT
THAT TIME WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 200 NM SW. A BLEND OF THEIR
SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR THIS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.
..................Good Morning..the 7day for Tampa bay
ELSEWHERE...A RETROGRADING REX BLOCK MOVED FROM THE 60TH PARALLEL
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...WITH ITS SOUTHERN MEMBER DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST CUBA...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR MID TO LATE
JUNE. DUE TO THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST...DISTURBED WEATHER/A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH MAY DRIFT NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.


Quoting AtHomeInTX:
ELSEWHERE...A RETROGRADING REX BLOCK MOVED FROM THE 60TH PARALLEL
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...WITH ITS SOUTHERN MEMBER DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST CUBA...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR MID TO LATE
JUNE. DUE TO THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST...DISTURBED WEATHER/A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH MAY DRIFT NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.


yes for this time of year it is odd, but we can always use the rain it will bring once again,just hope its not bad like last week
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

OKZ014-016-021>023-033>039-044-045-TXZ083-085-086 -088>090-130915-
COMANCHE OK-ROGER MILLS OK-HARMON OK-GREER OK-COTTON OK-CUSTER OK-
KIOWA OK-CADDO OK-WASHITA OK-JEFFERSON OK-TILLMAN OK-JACKSON OK-
BECKHAM OK-STEPHENS OK-BAYLOR TX-ARCHER TX-WICHITA TX-WILBARGER TX-
HARDEMAN TX-CLAY TX-
330 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COMANCHE...ROGER
MILLS...HARMON...GREER...COTTON...CUSTER...KIOWA. ..
CADDO...WASHITA...WESTERN JEFFERSON...TILLMAN...
JACKSON...BECKHAM...STEPHENS...BAYLOR...ARCHER... WICHITA...
WILBARGER...HARDEMAN AND CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 327 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
CHEYENNE...CLINTON...AND WEATHERFORD...SOUTH TO SEYMOUR AND ARCHER
CITY IN TEXAS. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STORMS WAS FROM WEATHERFORD
TO LAWTON...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS. THE STORMS WERE MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...ALTUS...VERNON...BURKBURNETT...EL K CITY...
WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...HOBART...SEYMOUR...SHEPPA RD AFB...IOWA
PARK...FREDERICK...SAYRE...HENRIETTA...ELECTRA... MANGUM...CORDELL...
WALTERS AND CACHE.

LAT...LON 3341 9943 3418 9946 3455 9996 3578 9998
3551 9858 3471 9809 3468 9809 3468 9807
3422 9779 3386 9783 3385 9788 3388 9798
3347 9798 3347 9842 3341 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0827Z 277DEG 45KT 3453 9935

$$

CMS
Wild wind and rain but South-West spared major destruction

A WILD storm with wind gusts up to 113km/h lashed Perth and the South-West overnight, but the region was spared major destruction or damage to the power network.

Cape Leeuwin recorded a wind gust of 113km/h at 10.50pm and Rottnest was also buffetted by 113km/h winds, while Swanbourne and Ocean Reef recorded gusts of 107km/h.

Rottnest had gusts above 100km/h around 8pm and today is being pounded by a six-metre swell.

While the deep low pressure system brought gales and heavy rain to much of the South West and Perth, the southern half of the state was spared the widespread destruction associated with Sunday's violent storm.

Mandurah, Rockingham and Pinjarra appear to be the worst-hit areas. A large tree has brought powerlines down in Park Ridge Drive, Bouvard.

The State Emergency Service received more than 150 calls for help as the storm battered Perth, the Midwest, South West, Lower South West, and the Great Southern. Damage was reported from Moora south to Albany.

Most of the calls were from the Perth metropolitan area, including Mandurah, Rockingham and Pinjarra which appear to be worst hit.

At the height of the storm 27,000 Western Power customers were blacked out, but by 1pm today fewer than 16,000 properties remained without power as repair crews worked around the clock to reconnect supplies.

FESA spokesman Allen Gale said the majority of the calls for SES assistance were for relatively minor matters.

"We are not hearing of any major structural damage throughout the metropolitan area," he said.

"I think we were all worried what it was likely to bring and we certainly are very happy that it hasn't been as bad as expected, but it's not to say it won't happen to us again."

A house had its roof blown off in Pinjarra, while a fallen tree damaged a house at Dwellingup and a verandah was torn off in Meelon, according to FESA. But there are fewer reports of structural damage than feared.

A woman told ABC radio a large tree crashed through her Bouvard fishing shack narrowly missing her and her young son.

A crew of 25 volunteers from South Australia have been deployed to Perth, and will arrive tomorrow to help the impending clean up.

SES volunteers worked through the night to respond to call outs, fix minor roof damage, and remove fallen trees from homes and cars.

They were aided by crews sent from Kimberley, Pilbara, and Midwest Gascoyne.

A FESA spokesperson said they were expecting the number of calls to the helpline to increase this morning from daybreak and would respond on a priority basis.

A house in Maylands, believed to be blacked out due to the storm, has burnt down, with nine occupants escaping the blaze. The fire destroyed the $350,000 house.

Severe weather warning remains in place

A Severe Weather Warning remains in place for the far south of the state south-west of a line from Cape Leeuwin to Paynes Find to Forrest. This includes Bridgetown, Southern Cross, York, Albany, Katanning, Narrogin, Esperance, Kalgoorlie and Eucla.

The cold front is expected to move eastwards through inland parts and has the potential to cause widespread damage with dangerous gusts in excess of 125km/h.

The winds will hit the eastern Eucla by midday and clear the state by the early afternoon. Conditions should gradually ease through the west during the day.

Heavy rain hits Perth, South West

The front has brought heavy rainfall to the metropolitan area and South West, with Bickley 40mm, Dwellingup 41mm, Perth Airport 27mm and Perth recording 22mm to 9am.

In the South West, Bridgetown Post Office recorded 58mm, Witchcliffe had 47mm to 9am today, Collie and Walpole 30mm and Albany on the south coast, 27mm.

In the Great Southern there were widespread falls up to 25mm across the agricultural area.

At 5.30am today Western Power reported that the electricity network had withstood the brunt of last night's storm, experiencing far fewer power interruptions than on Sunday.

About 27,000 properties were without power, nearly 10,000 of those as a result of the weekend's severe weather front.

Areas affected included the Perth suburbs of Thornlie (1800 without power), Wangara (1800) and Sorrento (1000).

More than 1000 properties were without power in the South-West town of Yallingup, 252km south of Perth, while 900 were blacked out in Serpentine and 750 in Rockingham.

Most of last night's damage occurred in the Margaret River-Augusta area, 267km south of Perth, where more than 6000 customers were impacted after the storm hit about 7pm.

Many of those properties had power restored by the early hours of this morning.

Western Power said crews worked throughout the night restoring power to thousands of customers as the storm front moved up from the state's southwest corner through the metropolitan area and up the coast.

Only 30 wires appeared to have been brought down in last night's storm compared with nearly 800 power lines, streetlight wires and individual customer service lines on Sunday. At the peak of Sunday's storm, 170,000 customers had lost power.

Yesterday the State Government announced a doubling of the assistance payment for homeowners who were without power for more than 48 hours because of Sunday's storms.

Under the Extended Outage Payment Scheme (EOPS) homeowners who have had a power outage of more than 12 consecutive hours can apply for a payment of $80.

Following the announcement, homeowners who have been without power for more than 48 hours due to Sunday’s storms will be eligible for a payment of $160.

Energy Minister Peter Collier said he recognised the hardship that people suffer as a result of losing power and said the one-off increase to the assistance followed the most widespread damage to the South West Interconnected System ever caused by a single storm.

FESA warns people to take shelter

Yesterday FESA warned people living in parts of WA, south of a line from Geraldton to Laverton to Forrest, to take action with the start of the dangerous weather.

“This intense storm will be of similar strength to the system that affected the southwest on Sunday,” FESA said.

FESA advised that people should stay away from windows and ensure pets and animals were in a safe area.

Motorists planning travel in or to the South-West region have been told to review unnecessary travel plans.

Last night Nine News reported that there had been a scramble for supplies in southern suburbs, with shelves left empty.

The highest winds recorded during Sunday's storm was 146km/h, one of the highest recorded gusts in the South West.

But much of the South West was buffeted by destructive gales up to 125km/h.

As the clean-up continued yesterday from Sunday's storms, Nine News reported that FESA had called in the Defence Department, with 100 naval personnel assisting in the Mandurah and Rockingham areas.
A bit cooler this morning :)

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 6:00 AM EDT Wednesday 13 June 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 30.09 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 51.6°F
Dewpoint: 45.3°F
Humidity: 79 %
Wind: NNW 16 mph


nice air mass change for a couple days anyway
Today

72°F


Thu

72°F
55°F

Fri

79°F
57°F

Sat

77°F humidex 82
61°F

Sun

82°F humidex 86
61°F

Mon

84°F humidex 90
63°F

Tue

86°F humidex 95
64°F

Issued : 5:00 AM EDT Wednesday 13 June 2012
Well ain't that interesting...
Invest95E is sitting stationary, while Invest94E is heading west toward it at 8.3mph(13.3km/h)

ZIH is Zihuatanejo,Mexico : MGSJ is PuertoSanJose,Guatemala : MRFS is Golfito,CostaRica

Copy and paste 11.0n101.0w, zih, aca, tap, mgsj, sal, mhch, mga, mrfs, 6.6n84.0w-6.7n85.2w, 6.7n85.2w-6.9n86.4w, 6.9n86.4w-7.1n87.4w, 7.1n87.4w-7.4n88.4w, 7.4n88.4w-7.7n89.3w, 7.7n89.3w-7.9n90.0w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
865. DDR
Good morning
Radar showing widespread heavy rain particularly over north Trinidad an Tobago,possible landslips and flooding on the way.
RadarLink
Good morning. 6z GFS at 264 hours... Similar strength to the 0z run

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 6z GFS at 264 hours... Similar strength to the 0z run



Wasn't the GFS showing similar situations 5 days ago? It is interesting but 264 hours out is too far out for me to get too worried.
I think that this caribbean system will play out like how the GFS showed yesterday form somewhere around Honduras/GOH and move off to the ENE-NE toward the Caymans Cuba S Florida and Bahamas
Good Morning,
Yesterday the North Carolina Senate voted to ignore sea level science in coastal land use.
The builders and land developers win again (as usual in politics, money talks).
A little better model concensus last night among the models.
NOGAPS and GFS showing development faster than the ECMWF and CMC.
Personally I think NOGAPS and GFS are a little fast.
I have increased confidence this morning that tropical development has gotten a little higher in chances for next Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe in the NW Caribbean.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131138
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
Something is brewing off the Carolina Coast... lots of confusing weather systems off shore.
Quoting MissNadia:
Something is brewing off the Carolina Coast... lots of confusing weather systems off shore.


Off of what coast?!?!
Quoting presslord:


Off of what coast?!?!


Ha.Ha.... Good Morning!
Quoting presslord:


Off of what coast?!?!



Uh oh! Now troubles brewin'.




Coffee too, in my kitchen







Quoting MissNadia:
Something is brewing off the Carolina Coast... lots of confusing weather systems off shore.

yeah called non-tropical mess
Re: the 06z GFS.... Take all that rain to TX, 'cause P'cola sure doesn't need it.
Greetings all!
Good Morning..

Subtropical Chris on the East coast


and debby in the GOM
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..

Subtropical Chris on the East coast


and debby in the GOM
Ah Debby looks mean :(.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ah Debby looks mean :(.


Very!..looks to be heading toward texas
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for 94E.

WTPN21 PHNC 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 90.5W TO 12.4N 95.0W WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
130930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.9N
90.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N 90.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH OF SAN SALVADOR, EL SALVADOR. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
130200Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS BROADLY TURNING DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY WITH A SMALL HOOK FEATURE NEAR THE LLCC.
A 130247 PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER SPLIT FLOW DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10
KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION,
AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141000Z.//
NNNN

For the first time, we now have complete model consensus from the ECMWF, GFS, CMC and NOGAPS for tropical cyclone development later next week.
Well it's the U.S army's birthday today.Gotta thank them for all they did.Or else we wouldn't have the freedom we do now.My family has been serving for 85 years.God bless america.
Quoting Patrap:
Cupola hit by minor MMOD strike, shutter closed for evaluations

June 12th, 2012 by Chris Bergin

Window 2 on the Cupola module has been hit by a minor MicroMeteoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) strike. With the window's protective shutter closed, per flight rules, ISS managers are evaluating photos of the damage downlinked from the International Space Station (ISS) before they are expected to give the crew clearance to reopen the shutter.

if we get a TD or TS today or thurs morning for Epac I think it will track NW-NNWward and maybe make land fall somewhere near El Salvador or Guatemala
Good morning ?

It's raining.
It rained all day yesterday.
It's going to rain all day today.
It looks like it will rain all day tomorrow.

It must be the Rainy Season.....
Good morning all..if the GFS model is correct then Tampa better put up that "Tampa Shield" on the 21st of June to make sure it don't have any holes for the 22nd to the 23rd..lol....
The 6z GFS can move on over.It looks like it is wanting to go up the Mobile Bay and Mobile doesnt need anymore rain.
Mornin'. What in the world is that rain band sporting cyclonic thing over Texas? Did Debbie just skip the whole forming and making landfall with icky storm surge steps to simply plop down where she's needed? ;)
874 MissNadia: Something is brewing off the Carolina Coast...
875 presslord: Off of what coast?!?!

Sheesh, ya oughtta be be too embarrassed ta even hint that an other might exist. And sayin'
"off the coast of Tennessee and Kentucky" would mean that ya'd hafta do a lotta shovel work.
Quoting pottery:
Good morning ?

It's raining.
It rained all day yesterday.
It's going to rain all day today.
It looks like it will rain all day tomorrow.

It must be the Rainy Season.....


Would you like some cheese with your whine?
Gonna get bumpy somewhere over TX with heating of the day
Good Morning everyone

looks like good weather for me on the weekend... Hopefully will be a great annual Lobster boil... this will be the 31st annual. I think it is sis shining down giving us good weather to spread her ashes.
We always see models showing this, but they never show where it's coming from, it just poof shows up in the gulf

The blog is dead...
lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
The blog is dead...
Quoting nickharger:
Let them build on the coast, but make premiums for hurricane insurance stratospheric.



Although I'm a day late: I guess Republicans like insurance companies.
Recon for 94E on Friday afternoon.

NOUS42 KNHC 131330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT WED JUN 132012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX OF A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING
HURRICANE AT 15/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 95.5W
JWP
Morning everyone!

I think I see pre-Ernesto in a thunderstorm currently over Rwanda.
It got pretty bumpy in a few spots yesterday for sure but no rain on us.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna get bumpy somewhere over TX with heating of the day

Quoting SubtropicalHi:



Although I'm a day late: I guess Republicans like insurance companies.


Your right, I'm a Republican and I love insurance companies. My house was destroyed during Fran and my insurance company covered all cost to rebuild. Without them, well I guess i would be screwed lol.
Looks like we got some agreement on a Tropical System in the Gulf,but where it hits is another question. From what I have seen,thats Florida to Texas.
Quoting SubtropicalHi:



Although I'm a day late: I guess Republicans like insurance companies.
Almost as much as the Koch Brothers!
7 die, 13 missing as rains hit Philippines

HE start of the typhoon season has brought storms and rough seas to the Philippines, killing seven people.

Big waves smashed a passenger boat into rocky outcrops and sunk the vessel, killing at least five people late last night. Another 54 were rescued, officials said today.

The MV Josille 2 sank near an island off the resort town of El Nido in Palawan Island, said coast guard spokesman Armand Balilo.

One of the passengers managed to contact the coast guard, sparking a search that involved the navy and local fishermen.

Navy Commodore Alexander Lopez said authorities were not sure how many people were on board the boat because the dead and rescued had exceeded the manifest count of 46.

Flash floods and strong waves also hit the southern Mindanao region, where 75 fishermen and villagers were rescued. At least 13 others were missing, regional military spokesman Major Jake Obligado said. He said search and rescue operations were ongoing.
Three days of flooding in several southern provinces displaced nearly 3000 families.

At least two people drowned in Sarangani's Glan town, said Benito Ramos, head of the Philippines' disaster response agency.

A new storm in the western Pacific was forecast to reach the eastern Philippines later this week and could become the first typhoon of the year.

About 20 tropical storms and typhoons each year batter the Philippine archipelago.
Quoting jeffs713:
Morning everyone!

I think I see pre-Ernesto in a thunderstorm currently over Rwanda.
are you being sarcastic?.:).
Quoting washingtonian115:
are you being sarcastic?.:).


This may be true of the Brazilian butterfly flutters its wings.
Quoting jeffs713:
Morning everyone!

I think I see pre-Ernesto in a thunderstorm currently over Rwanda.


Hey Jeff!
Confidence is building in the models of a tropical storm affecting FL late next week.

GFS 06Z

looking on sattelite 94E has a well defined circulation and seems to be moving in a NW-NNW direction the movement is more visible between 1115Z and 1315Z in the loop
Moisture is gathering down here.

Gotta head out to the V.A. Hospital,see ya ll this pm,have a great day!!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Confidence is building in the models of a tropical storm affecting FL late next week.

GFS 06Z



Nope...Based on how things are setting up synoptically i would expect anything that does develope to head towards texas or mexico.
Just a quick rundown of the "system" being forecasted near the end of the models:

GFS - predicts something will form from a persistent tough down by Honduras in the 192-216 hour range. I personally label this one as suspicious, since the system appears to be forming due to a positive feedback from thunderstorm activity (something the GFS has been doing all year). The "storm" actually strengthens after "landfall".

NOGAPS - pulls something up from the western Caribbean around 144 hours, across the FL Keys, and then up the western coast of FL. I can't see the initiation on the model display I found, but it is mildly interesting. (even though I don't trust the nogaps, since it is frequently out to lunch)

ECMWF - really not showing much at the surface at all.

CMC - spins something up off the SE coast in the 96-108 hour range, and slides it up the east coast though 144 hours. Maybe a TD, and it has been pretty consistent forming something... but the CMC is known as "Constantly Making Cyclones" for a reason.

OZ GFS run.

Quoting washingtonian115:
are you being sarcastic?.:).

Completely. I just find it amusing people are already claiming to see Debby before Chris has formed... and I wanted to say that I saw Ernesto first.
Quoting hurricane23:


Nope...Based on how things are setting up synoptically i would expect anything that does develope to head towards texas or mexico.

nope Florida Cuba and Bahamas
Quoting hurricane23:


Nope...Based on how things are setting up synoptically i would expect anything that does develope to head towards texas or mexico.


Not with a trough digging in next week. We must be looking totally different models.

Quoting hurricane23:


Hey Jeff!
Mornin!
There is no confidence towards anything, but based on the way that everything looks to me with, this is probably a Texas storm, which they still do need the rain. Just hope it isn't another Allison.
Quoting hurricane23:


Nope...Based on how things are setting up synoptically i would expect anything that does develope to head towards texas or mexico.


Here's the break in the ridge the models are showing.



Quoting presslord:


Would you like some cheese with your whine?

LOLOL, very clever.... but it's a little early for that sort of thing.
Cheese, I mean.

I note that there is some mischief brewing off the coast of where you are.
The Carolina's or something like that ?.
That's what the Muddles say, anyway.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Here's the break in the ridge the models are showing.





If you say so.
23 is correct the way I see it too!
I'm now up to 7.46" for the month of June after yesterdays rain. It has rained nearly everyday since the end of May here in Orlando.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
There is no confidence towards anything, but based on the way that everything looks to me with, this is probably a Texas storm, which they still do need the rain. Just hope it isn't another Allison.


If these models are correct in showing a trough by late next week then this has FL written all over it but if it misses the trough then it would head to Mexico. Tricky set up here and one that will have to be monitored over the weekend.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Here's the break in the ridge the models are showing.




Where is the tropical system?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Here's the break in the ridge the models are showing.





Thats means anything that form in the nw caribb. will head NE to Florida
Jedkins just because you haven't had much rain this month doesn't mean the rest of FL is getting hammered nearly everyday.
Plenty of time to look at the steering however, there is a pretty good chance we'll have something to track next week.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Thats means anything that form in the nw caribb. will head NE to Florida


If the trough is strong enough then yes or it could miss and head toward Mexico.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Moisture is gathering down here.



Here comes the MJO
How can you have any confidence in where any system will go when it has not even formed yet?
Quoting sporteguy03:
How can you have any confidence in where any system will go when it has not even formed yet?

Magic. Hope. Prayers. Wild guesses from throwing at a dart board.
905 jeffs713: I think I see pre-Ernesto in a thunderstorm currently over Rwanda.
Forecast Track Ouija Board model
Hrm... suddenly the blog is only showing average or better posts. I had it set to "show all"... but every time I change it from "Show Average" to "Show All", it refreshes back to "Show Average". What the...

Who broke the blog?
Quoting jeffs713:
Hrm... suddenly the blog is only showing average or better posts. I had it set to "show all"... but every time I change it from "Show Average" to "Show All", it refreshes back to "Show Average". What the...

Who broke the blog?


Mine is showing All.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Mine is showing All.

Mine is now too... all I had to do is make a post about it.
Quoting sporteguy03:
How can you have any confidence in where any system will go when it has not even formed yet?


Low confidence BUT we can get an idea by the overall syopntic set-up the models appear to be showing if anything does develope.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Thats means anything that form in the nw caribb. will head NE to Florida
If anyone remembers at the begining of the season or I should say "preseason" we likened the weather pattern to that of 2004..by going by that scenerio then Chris(charley?) will head to Fla..hence..get those Taampa Shields ready!..Besides thats where my dart landed...lol...
Quoting Mamasteph:
If anyone remembers at the begining of the season or I should say "preseason" we likened the weather pattern to that of 2004..by going by that scenerio then Chris(charley?) will head to Fla..hence..get those Taampa Shields ready!..Besides thats where my dart landed...lol...


It's going to hit Texas.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
As others have noted, it's not just the anti-science, profit-above-people dolts in North Carolina; Virginia is getting in on the denial-of-truth action, too:
In Virginia, "Jury's Still Out" on Global Warming.

By Charles P. Pierce

Last week, in our weekly recap of what's going on in the various laboratories of democracy, I mentioned that the North Carolina state legislature had moved to combat the effects of global climate change on that state's seacoast by simply declaring that climate change didn't exist as far as the North Carolina state legislature was concerned. Now, it seems, that this revolutionary new approach is catching fire elsewhere. Virginia's losing its salt marshes by the acres, and the primary job of the state's political establishment seems to be that all will be well if they just don't mention why:

To pass the bill, at Stolle's suggestion Northam excised the words "relative sea level rise" from an initial draft of the bill, replacing them with "recurrent flooding" in the final version. Stolle says the change was necessary to ensure the bill focused on the issues Virginia politicians can handle--flooding and not those they cannot address-- global warming. In any case, "the jury's still out" on mankind's contribution to global warming, he says. "Other folks can go argue about sea-level rise and global warming," Stolle says. "What matters is people's homes are getting destroyed, and that's what we want to focus on. To think that we are going to stop climate change is absolute hubris. The climate is going to change whether we're here or not."

And, some day, several millennia from now, when nature has begun evolution all over again with the bees, if there are any of those left after we get done with them, the bee lords will conduct earnest symposia about the mounting archaeological evidence that, once on this planet, stupidity was an extinction-level event.

Grow gills, people. Do it immediately.
Isn't it odd that scientifically accurate language is increasingly seen by some as having a liberal bias? :-\
Quoting jeffs713:

Completely. I just find it amusing people are already claiming to see Debby before Chris has formed... and I wanted to say that I saw Ernesto first.
I-I think I see the storm after Ernesto starting to gather as well in Sudan.
I believe with all the moisture in the Caribbean right now and the return of a strong MJO pulse to add even more moisture cause air to pile up and get some intense and consistent convection we could see something could organize slowly starting this weekend(as it will be broad and will take some time to tighten up and work its way down to the surface)into a system. After that it will sit in the NW Caribbean then starts to organize a little bit into a moderate T-storm by early next week until a piece of trough come down and pick it up into the GOM where conditions should be favorable (< 15 knots of shear) as it sit under an upper ridge and forms into a hurricane then hit Florida as from Tampa to the Keys by late next week. However its just a theory right now but, it needs to careful come next week. On the possibility of a subtropical system seems possible but is less likely as most of the upper ridging will be focus in the GOM and Caribbean leaving behind dry air and high shear over the east coast.
Quoting RitaEvac:
We always see models showing this, but they never show where it's coming from, it just poof shows up in the gulf


Comes from the Caribbean

Comes from the Caribbean. Looks to hit TX/LA
Sorry this is a little old but I had to wait 24hrs to be allowed to post.

In my humble opinion if NC intends to use “a $5 million federal grant to analyze the impact of rising water, to lower its worst-case sea level rise scenario from 1 meter (39 inches) to 15 inches by 2100” then fine, be that way.

But NC State Govt should put their money where their mouth is.

In order to receive the grant, the Federal government should require NC to waive any right to request Federal funding to combat sea level rise if, in fact, sea level rises above the rate to reach 15 inches by 2100. NC should be forced to pay if they lose their bet and not be allowed to come crying to the Feds if they do.
The great scientists at "Colbert" and
"Comedy Central" aside, 3.5 mm/year in sea level rise equates to 1/10th of an inch per year, or 1 inch per decade. Considering that sea levels rose at 1/2" per year for 7,000 consecutive years following the end of the last ice age, and then leveled off to ~1/10" per year rise 8,000 years ago, this hardly seems catastrophic.

The "alarmist" arguement is even more dubious if you look at paleo temperatures (and CO 2 concentrations) over any reasonable length of geologic time. Even James Hansen's own data (published in 2009) show that over the past 65 million years, the earth has been considerably warmer (than today) over 95% of that time period. (The arctic has only been glaciated for 8 of those 65 million years.)




Quoting AlKnowing:
The great scientists at "Colbert" and
"Comedy Central" aside, 3.5 mm/year in sea level rise equates to 1/10th of an inch per year, or 1 inch per decade. Considering that sea levels rose at 1/2" per year for 7,000 consecutive years following the end of the last ice age, and then leveled off to ~1/10" per year rise 8,000 years ago, this hardly seems catastrophic.



I would suggest you re-visit your math skills and expand your assessment beyond linear trends.