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North Carolina coastal storm winding up; 93L disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:14 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

It's tough to tell what tropical disturbance 93L is up to, as the storm has significantly deteriorated overnight. Dominican Republic radar is down, and visible satellite loops show little heavy thunderstorm activity or organization to the cloud pattern. However, pressures at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic are the lowest they've been for the week--1006 mb. I expect 93L will regenerate north of the Dominican Republic today and spread heavy rains to that country and Puerto Rico this afternoon and Thursday.

In the Dominican Republic, heavy rain has been limited to the extreme eastern end, near Punta Cana, where satellite estimates indicate up to ten inches of rain has fallen. Rainfall in the capital, Santo Domingo, has been about three inches, according to three personal weather stations there. Additional heavy rains of 2-4 inches are likely today through Thursday in portions of the Dominican Republic.

Haiti has thus far escaped heavy rains from 93L, and I expect only an additional 2-4 inches will there. Heaviest rains in the Turks and Caicos islands and southeastern Bahamas should be in the 2-4 inch range. Western Puerto Rico may receive an additional 2-4 inches, as well.

The forecast
Wind shear remains near 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 15-25 knots for the remainder of the week. The computer models take 93L northwards to a landfall in New England or Nova Scotia on Saturday or Sunday, and I doubt the storm would hit as anything stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm. The storm is too disorganized at present, and there is too much shear in the forecast to allow 93L to become a hurricane.


Figure 1. Observed precipitation for Puerto Rico from 93L. Image credit: NOAA.

North Carolina coastal storm
An extratropical "Nor'easter" storm is developing off the coast of North Carolina today, and this low has the potential to acquire tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm by Friday as it moves slowly west-southwest. Cape Hatteras, NC radar shows a modest but expanding area of rain off the coast. The Diamond Shoals buoy near Cape Hatteras reported 12 foot waves and sustained winds of 29 mph at 8 am EDT this morning. Sustained winds of 38 mph were observed there last night at 10 pm EDT. Winds should increase to 40-50 mph along the coast of North Carolina tonight through Thursday as the storm intensifies, and this unnamed storm will affect North Carolina like a weak tropical storm would. Expect tide levels of 3-6 feet above normal along the coast, and rain amounts of 2-3 inches. The storm is currently tapping some relatively modest moisture from the Atlantic, but total precipitable water imagery show a large region of deep tropical moisture associated with 93L is approaching North Carolina. The coastal low should be able to draw in this moisture on Thursday, potentially aiding it in transitioning to a subtropical storm. Wind shear is currently 30 knots over the low, but may fall to 20 knots on Thursday. The increased moisture and lower shear may allow the coastal low to transition to a subtropical storm before it makes landfall Friday morning near the North Carolina/South Carolina border.

Links to follow
Dominican Republic radar
Puerto Rico radar
Cape Hatteras, NC weather

The Hurricane Ike "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE" continues
Two wunderground members, presslord and violet312s, have announced that they will match two dollars for every dollar in contributions made to portlight.org. This charity has really made a difference in some of the hard-hit areas of Texas and Louisiana affected by Hurricane Ike neglected by the traditional relief efforts. A quote from Paul Timmons (AKA Presslord), who has helped coordinate this effort:

1.) We have reached a total of $3500 in our Next Truck Challenge....which is enough to fund another truckload of requested supplies to Bridge City and Winnie TX...will leave first of next week...Violet and I will be poorer financially...but richer in the ways that matter...y'all render me speechless...

2.) Patrap is rolling there shortly in a truck so as to arrive at first light....

3.) I don't even wanna talk about the next challenge...


If we contribute heartily to the next challenge, you'll see why Paul does not want to talk about it! A testimonial from a beneficiary of a Portlight aid shipment:

From: gulfcoastDrifter 3:02 PM EDT on September 23, 2008
"I live in Bridge City off of FM 408 and want to say thank you for coming out here to help out."


Figure 2. Portlight delivering supplies to a Winnie-Stowell Red Cross shelter. Apparently the canned cokes (not provided by Portlight) were only for lineman. The residents were only being allowed to drink water. Needless to say, the residents were very happy to see us, although there was some confusion as to whether they could actually get the supplies we delivered. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr Masters
Good Morning and thanks for the update. 93L is still a mystery.
Early model plot for 93L also shows 94L. The early models for 94L take it in all sorts of directions.

Quoting champagnedrmz:
Official according to Navy

Try this link

It is very windy here on NC coast. We are under a wind advisory.

Could 93 use a dose of prozac? :)
24/1145 UTC 32.0N 74.9W ST2.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
Thanks for the update, playa.
Have the steering currents increased over 93L? Dr. Masters reports that it is expected to be in New England by the weekend. Given its almost stationary history, does this mean that conditions have changed? What will lift the storm northward?

Time:
13:02:00Z
Coordinates:
20.5333N 69.8667W
Acft. Static Air Press:
666.6 mb (~ 19.68 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
3,532 meters (~ 11,588 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
1004.9 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)

D-value:


too me 93L had it ch now that ch is gone for 93L
Thanks Doc, This is got to be one of the most useful blogs on the internet. Information, discussion and action when needed. Nice cyber neighbor hood to be in....
Heartwarming sight this morning of Galveston residents coming home.
Hopefully, water and sewer facilities are on line and at capacity.
now 94L has a better ch then 93L dos
Quoting Enola:
Quoting champagnedrmz:
Official according to Navy

Try this link



Thank you. I kept trying to link it and all it would do was say link. Don't know what is going on.
System has been really persistant for about 10 days now still think 93 still has a good shot a hurricane status. Alot of warm water ahead.
Hello Everyone,
Just dropping in for the first time since Ike rearranged my world. We basically had our A** handed to us, we have lost our home, the majority of the contents and one car to the storm. My family and I are safe though, and that is all that really matters to me now. I am not staying on long, but wanted to express my thanks for all those who have in some way helped out with the recovery efforts. I don't know if I have been the beneficciary of anyones generosity on here or not but I know you have made some ones life better at least for a little while (a friend overnighted me some home made cookies, they were the best). I don't know how to send a mail message to Patrap and Press, but if some one could send this to them on my behalf I would apprecite it. They appear to have been very busy lately.

Sincereley,
Bryan
Shoreacres, TX

p.s. sorry of their are typo's I'm exhausted and just returning to work.
Look 93L is back to here...not look good :(
Well,looks like a windy rainy event for the carolinas on up the coast,but nothing to tough to take.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Early model plot for 93L also shows 94L. The early models for 94L take it in all sorts of directions.



Looks like a football offensive diagram on a Sunday morning
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all!

I have a new synopsis posted. I have an appointment this morning, but will be back after lunch.

Thanks!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS SEPTEMBER 24, 2008 ISSUED 9:25 A.M. EDT


Thanks for this blog, I did not know that NHC had put a L off the coast here. I was thinking earlier this week that it should be tropical, who knows, maybe it will get a name.
Squid28 - msg. relayed - candle lit prayers in mind for you in your family !
Seriously Doctor? ...
MORE rain?
you've got to be kidding me!

Bring down the kayaks
Quoting NEwxguy:
Well,looks like a windy rainy event for the carolinas on up the coast,but nothing to tough to take.


We are use to it :) we sure need the rain, just don't want a lot at once though. Highway 12 is already under water from the roaring ocean :(
I never thought the Nor'easter low would have been as powerful as it is now that it has gotten going. The wind gusts picked up at my home overnight. The windchimes had to come down off their hooks. I usually only do that in advance of a TS.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Well,looks like a windy rainy event for the carolinas on up the coast,but nothing to tough to take.

Easy for you to say!
Quoting teckchick:


Thanks for this blog, I did not know that NHC had put a L off the coast here. I was thinking earlier this week that it should be tropical, who knows, maybe it will get a name.


It is mentioned in this blog also?
What is the mechanism that will serve to steer 94L. Would its strength have any impact on its track?
17. Squid28
Portlight will see your message.
What about local water and sewer ?
God speed...God bless
ps. 10-4 on cookies being an oasis in a dessert of anxiety
Blog refresh

I would show 94L from the navy site... but I seem to be in some kind of disagreement with my ummmm compute
Quoting MissNadia:

Easy for you to say!
you guys are pretty saturated. Take care.
Quoting cynvision:
I never thought the Nor'easter low would have been as powerful as it is now that it has gotten going. The wind gusts picked up at my home overnight. The windchimes had to come down off their hooks. I usually only do that in advance of a TS.


Are you on the coast? My wind chimes are standing straight up, I think this thing is going to be worse than predicted.
Quoting benirica:
Seriously Doctor? ...
MORE rain?
you've got to be kidding me!

Bring down the kayaks


**Sends a kayak to Benirica via blog**
Storm - Maybe you can answer this:
What is the mechanism that will serve to steer 94L. Would its strength have any impact on its track?
Thanks Dr. Masters for the update. 93L sure doesn't look the same as it did yesterday afternoon. We will have to see what the heat of the day does to it.
Quoting teckchick:


We are use to it :) we sure need the rain, just don't want a lot at once though. Highway 12 is already under water from the roaring ocean :(

Techchick- where are you? Are you talking about Hwy 12 on Hatteras Island? I'm in KDH. Read Storm W update. Rain is forecast 4-5 inches through Sunday, per The Doc.
I'm officially cold...and it's WINDY here this morning (duh) in GA. Went from 90 degree weather to 68 almost in one day it seems.

Lucky me, I get to fly in the morning - hopefully the winds will ease up a bit.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Blog refresh

I would show 94L from the navy site... but I seem to be in some kind of disagreement with my ummmm compute

Orca, someone else was having problems with this earlier. Try the main page
Complete update

Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
7-14ft seas at the beach near here. I may have to head down and see that.
Quoting Enola:

Orca, someone else was having problems with this earlier. Try the main page

Got it figured out.. when in doubt.. look somewhere else and pour another coffee
So let me get this straight. 94L was apparently the proposed Nor'Easter, but it may turn out to be tropical or subtropical in nature?

Always had a feeling that Kyle was destined to be surfing the Atlantic.

Might be right.

Just hope that my gut isn't right with Laura...
31
Water and Sewer are operational, but I think it comes from the next municipality (La Porte), no power at the house, but it really does not matter. Using a generator to run fans and saws for the "great gut out 2008"
Quoting killdevilmax:

Techchick- where are you? Are you talking about Hwy 12 on Hatteras Island? I'm in KDH. Read Storm W update. Rain is forecast 4-5 inches through Sunday, per The Doc.


I am in Hatteras, lights are blinking ........ grrrrrrrrrrrrrr
The visible of 94L shows its wrapping into its coc. Looks like this thing is going to start cranking
Quoting teckchick:


Are you on the coast? My wind chimes are standing straight up, I think this thing is going to be worse than predicted.
I'm coastal SC, 15 west miles in from Hilton Head. The 1250Z metar for the island airport has NE/E 15kt gusting to 25kt. That report is from the coast itself. I expect gusts at my house are like that but the windspeed didn't strike me as a constant 15kt. We're still in the dry air on the west side of the greater circulation. Maybe this is just a potent spell as it gets going and once it's done it's going to settle down? I do think the local weather guys underestimated winds and coastal flooding on last night's news. This NE wind is just piling the tides into the salt marshes.

My blog has a few general observations about the last few days.Blog Sept. Summary Link
Quoting benirica:
Seriously Doctor? ...
MORE rain?
you've got to be kidding me!

Bring down the kayaks


Same here....we need floater to keep the island afloat!!! Thanks!! =)
Quoting NEwxguy:


Looks like a football offensive diagram on a Sunday morning


Like the one the Fins used to spank the Pats?
94L is under 30kt of shear? Wow. IF it was under a significantly lower shear environment, it would be a nasty son of a gun.
Quoting teckchick:


I am in Hatteras, lights are blinking ........ grrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Is the sound over it's banks? All our water is yours now
Both systems



Click to enlarge
The NHC now has the Invest up on there sight.
orcasystems post 54

The models really have a handle on 94. (gagging) How come it's not on WU site??
Quoting killdevilmax:

Is the sound over it's banks? All our water is yours now


Can you come get your water?? Friend just called and said the EMS here is saying that it going to become named because it is separating from the front. Guess time will tell.
94L is indeed "winding up"....... cool and "breezy" this morning on the S. Carolina coast.... will be interesting to watch this storm "transition"....

Quoting Neverseensnow:


Like the one the Fins used to spank the Pats?




Go Fish!
Good Morning Everyone!

94L is starting to look more like a subtropical/tropical system than the extra-tropical frontal system that it originated from. There is some moderately deep convection over the CoC and it appears that right over the center there is moderately low shear - as the cloud tops are not being blown off in any direction.

As I said yesterday, the interesting thing about this system is that there is HIGH shear all around it...but because it is in the trough axis, the shear is fairly low.

Also unique is the relatively cold air aloft. The morning upper air charts show -13°C at 500mb...whereas most tropical sounding (like down by 93L) have 500mb temps around -5 to -8°C range.

What this cold air means is that the atmosphere can be unstable with cooler SSTs and lower Dewpoints.

Quoting largeeyes:
94L is under 30kt of shear? Wow. IF it was under a significantly lower shear environment, it would be a nasty son of a gun.
Isn't sheer a different sort of thing for a (and here I don't know the proper name for it) extra-tropical storm? Isn't this 'sheer' the wind what helped the low spin up on the front? The sat images have shown differing directions of cloud movement for days.

Is it possible the sheer you mention is the nasty wind I have blowing by my house today?
Quoting Neverseensnow:


Like the one the Fins used to spank the Pats?


Ouch!That was a low blow,since that will be your only win this season,I'll let you enjoy it
Post 56 -
Yes, we will have to see what the 2PM Models do for 94L although from what Storm was saying, it does look like a NC/SC border landfall. Then again how will 94L and 93L impact each other
Quoting Neverseensnow:


Like the one the Fins used to spank the Pats?


More like the ones that Arizona and the Jets used to spank the fins!!
Also favoring 94L is some strong upper level divergence to its northeast associated with a jet streak. This should help the central pressure to fall faster.

Finally, the other unique aspect to consider is the strong pressure gradient that will drive winds into North Carolina with this system. There is seasonally strong high pressure over the Northeast (1032mb) and with 94L possibly having pressure in 975-985mb range at landfall, there will be stronger than normal winds on the north side system than other storms with a similar pressure.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241136
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER HISPANIOLA HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Also favoring 94L is some strong upper level divergence to its northeast associated with a jet streak. This should help the central pressure to fall faster.

Finally, the other unique aspect to consider is the strong pressure gradient that will drive winds into North Carolina with this system. There is seasonally strong high pressure over the Northeast (1032mb) and with 94L possibly having pressure in 975-985mb range at landfall, there will be stronger than normal winds on the north side system than other storms with a similar pressure.


The lowest pressure I've seen on a model at landfall was 994mb. So where do you get the lower pressure from?
Quoting nolesjeff:


More like the ones that Arizona and the Jets used to spank the fins!!



Arizona got 'em good, but the fins went down fighting hard against the Jets. Keeping the record straight...
Quoting NEwxguy:


Ouch!That was a low blow,since that will be your only win this season,I'll let you enjoy it


What color is the sky of the world you're living in?
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
IS ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY
WINDS OF UP TO 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS. AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
Link

It could be all the grit that blew in my eyes (Stupid dirty sidewalks on state campus.) but 94l looks like it has an upper level eye feature forming.
Speaking of NFL... Any games gonna be affected by these systems this weekend?
Ya know I just acceded to Dr. Master's request and took the the Ike Truck Challenge. I figured helping a fellow human being in trouble is important. However, I have to really wonder whether helping is becoming enabling.

I've made some very fine mistakes in my life - sometimes from engaging in the same self-defeating behavior over and over again. And I've gotten myself, in a couple instances, into some really deep doo-doo because of that. Folks still reached out and gave me helping hand, but at certain point most had to say 'enough is enough' and plain stopped. And when they stopped I stopped the nonsense and did what I needed to do to get out the hole I dug myself into.

These folks who live in the hurricane-prone areas almost seem like the same thing. I mean for example building on Galveston - which is no more than a glorified sandbar - right in Hurricane alley is just plain foolish. They get wrecked by Ike and then want to rebuild in a place that will certainly be wrecked again soon. Maybe that was fine in the days of the '100 year storm', but 100 years storms, with global warming occurring, are likely to be a heck of lot more frequent than every 100 years. Maybe it's time to consider dumping the place and leaving for good. So, when (not IF) this happens again I may not be so inclined to offer assistance at the time.
Last update for a bit.. getting ready for work

All Systems ... Atlantic
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Models
Caribbean System 93L ... with Cloud Cover
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover

HH appears to be going home
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Speaking of NFL... Any games gonna be affected by these systems this weekend?

Not to worry! All the hot air coming out of Washington, D.C. will blow everything back out to sea!
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Link

It could be all the grit that blew in my eyes (Stupid dirty sidewalks on state campus.) but 94l looks like it has an upper level eye feature forming.


ouch. looking at that it looks like it is heading straight this way. I think 94L is catching everyone off guard. All the focus on 93L they need to go check out 94L. It is not like a typical Nor'easter, I think it is tropical, but then again I don't know the difference :)
Quoting HurricaneKing:


The lowest pressure I've seen on a model at landfall was 994mb. So where do you get the lower pressure from?


They have not run the true high res tropical models yet on 94L, so no GFDL or HWRF.

However, they do run a much higher resolution run every 12 hours for the eastern US. The following link shows this model run. It has the central pressure <976mb.

I'm not saying that this is a for sure thing that the pressure will follow this model...we all know how wrong models can be, but given the rapid improvement in appearance and conditions that I mention...it certainly is possible (perhaps likely).


00UTC WRF 4KM
The "perfect Storm" also was a tropical hybrid with a very long, strong ridge to the North. The extent of the ridge allowed a very very long easterly fetch of 50kt winds to develop with max wave heights around 90 ft! Surfs up.
I don't think an extra-tropical storm needs to separate from it's cold front in order to be sub-tropical. After all it's a hybrid(meaning it could go either way or more likely both ways).

BTW, "tell Laura I love her!" But it's too late, she's only half of what she could of been.;)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Speaking of NFL... Any games gonna be affected by these systems this weekend?


the only one that might be effected is ARI @ NYJ,but most of the systems should be gone,with a lingering trough on sunday
94L

Link
wow!
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


They have not run the true high res tropical models yet on 94L, so no GFDL or HWRF.

However, they do run a much higher resolution run every 12 hours for the eastern US. The following link shows this model run. It has the central pressure <976mb.

I'm not saying that this is a for sure thing that the pressure will follow this model...we all know how wrong models can be, but given the rapid improvement in appearance and conditions that I mention...it certainly is possible (perhaps likely).


00UTC WRF 4KM


I was expecting lower that the 994mb the models had yesterday even as a nor easter. I was thinking around 980-985mb so 975mb really wouldn't be that much of a stretch.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete update

Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete update

Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Thanks Orca
Quoting btwntx08:
94L

Link
wow!
Looking pretty good.
Morning everyone. I thought I'd log on for a few. How's the troll situation? Been busy working on another fire station that a neighboring dept is building, but I've been lurking. Looks like 93 might make the surfers happy on the E coast in a few days. I found a link with some great but sad photos from Ike and Texas. I've heard people say don't mess with Texas for years. It's very sad that Ike didn't get the word. I hope and pray everyone is recovering. BBL

Link
!!!***The NHC upgraded 94L to (50<%) of development***!!! man this sucks for me cause im on the coast of NC ...hehe... well it looks like we are in for a wild ride!
93L put a dissapearing act on us that he's leting 94L take the show to form today
94L off "Old North State"
Note the 5 Day Combined Plots

41048 Burmuda (31.9N 69.6W)
Winds shifted from WSW to ESE 15.5kts Gust 17.5kts
Significant changes on 5DAY PLOT WIND & PRESSURE

Station 41001 - 150 NM East of Cape HATTERAS (lost it's mooring so drifting:
current location

Winds generally E-NE 23.3kts Gust 27.2kts
Significant changes in the 5DAY PLOT WIND & PRESSURE

Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy (33.4N 77.7W)
Winds NNE 29.1kts Gusts 33kts - Look out Wilmington
Significant drop in pressure and increase in winds

5 DAY PLOT WIND & PRESSURE


Station FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC (32.7N 79.9W)
Winds generally N 15kts Gusts 22kts Not of particular interest to any except those of us living in Charleston
Quoting nolesjeff:


More like the ones that Arizona and the Jets used to spank the fins!!



or the one Wake has been using to spank the Noles.
Quoting hurricane10:
!!!***The NHC upgraded 94L to (50<%) of development***!!! man this sucks for me cause im on the coast of NC ...hehe... well it looks like we are in for a wild ride!

hope u stay safe
91. 786
Hey,

looks like 93L did has not met anyone's expectations...what a crazy year this has been shows how much more knowledge needs to be attained to understand these storms.

Anyone have thoughts on when the blob around 43W and the blob around 30W may be declared invests? The blob around 43W still needs to come down to the surface but it already has some circulation and is coming into a favourable environment. The one at 30W I have been watching for awahile its a good looking blob.

BTW anyone heard from OUSHAWN, I remember he said he was going to stay put in Galveston for IKE and I don't think he has been on since!!!!
Quoting Neverseensnow:



or the one Wake has been using to spank the Noles.


OUCH!
Does anyone know why 94L is not showing on the tropical weather home page along with 93L ?
what u think 94L is subtropical or tropical?
Quoting flaboyinga:
Does anyone know why 94L is not showing on the tropical weather home page along with 93L ?
we've been asking especially since it is on NHC. Maybe just timing on the updates.
Quoting nolesjeff:


OUCH!


LMAO Go Gators!!!!!!
97. 786
btwntx that is not 94L that is something that was in the CAribbean ...maybe Gustav
Quoting conchygirl:
we've been asking especially since it is on NHC. Maybe just timing on the updates.
\

Thanks CG.
Check this out.
Link
Quoting btwntx08:
what u think 94L is subtropical or tropical?


Subtropical verging on tropical. If the front would go bye bye I'd say tropical.
Quoting conchygirl:
we've been asking especially since it is on NHC. Maybe just timing on the updates.

wunder is going so slow i think
Quoting theshepherd:
Heartwarming sight this morning of Galveston residents coming home.
Hopefully, water and sewer facilities are on line and at capacity.
No sewer as of yet, limited water pressure but not potable and not enough to fight a fire, no gas, limited gasoline and very very limited electricity and phone service. Attitudes good - amount of work overwhelming no advanced medical support only limited first aid capabilities anything major medical must be transported to the mainland.
Quoting flaboyinga:
\

Thanks CG.
Check this out.
Link
Yes, I've seen those and each time you view them it continues to bring tears.
Looks like I better throw some bottles of water in the freezer.
Quoting WeatherMikeToledo:
Ya know I just acceded to Dr. Master's request and took the the Ike Truck Challenge. I figured helping a fellow human being in trouble is important. However, I have to really wonder whether helping is becoming enabling.

I've made some very fine mistakes in my life - sometimes from engaging in the same self-defeating behavior over and over again. And I've gotten myself, in a couple instances, into some really deep doo-doo because of that. Folks still reached out and gave me helping hand, but at certain point most had to say 'enough is enough' and plain stopped. And when they stopped I stopped the nonsense and did what I needed to do to get out the hole I dug myself into.

These folks who live in the hurricane-prone areas almost seem like the same thing. I mean for example building on Galveston - which is no more than a glorified sandbar - right in Hurricane alley is just plain foolish. They get wrecked by Ike and then want to rebuild in a place that will certainly be wrecked again soon. Maybe that was fine in the days of the '100 year storm', but 100 years storms, with global warming occurring, are likely to be a heck of lot more frequent than every 100 years. Maybe it's time to consider dumping the place and leaving for good. So, when (not IF) this happens again I may not be so inclined to offer assistance at the time.

I just have to say, Yes some people will take advantage of this deed but I can tell you there will be more people that will be so appriciative at what they are doing it makes it worth while. When Gustav hit in Baton Rouge a local church down the road cooked every day for over a week and handed it out. There were days I thought I could get a quick meal, but then I stopped an thought about it I did not receive much damage and there were alot that did, so I deceided that they needed more. But I appreciate that they were there incase I needed it. There will be lots of positives that will come out this.
Anyone else see that we are going to have a TS or Hurricane develop out in the middle of NOWHERE in 4 days? Like in the extreme N. Atlantic / East of Bermuda
Quoting 786:
btwntx that is not 94L that is something that was in the CAribbean ...maybe Gustav

no is not look at thisLink
Does anyone have a current SST chart, ideally with 94L overlaid? This things gotta be sitting right on top of the GS.
Quoting Enola:

Not to worry! All the hot air coming out of Washington, D.C. will blow everything back out to sea!
no the hot air will fuel 94L
If 93 and 94 get closer enough, wouldn't 94 slingshot 93 NWard and 93 would slingshot 94 SW, correct?
Quoting tropics21:
no the hot air will fuel 94L

We are screwed LOL
Quoting conchygirl:
Yes, I've seen those and each time you view them it continues to bring tears.


Me too. I keep looking trying to contemplate the amount of raw power displayed there. The hurt is always there in the back ground , tho.
Quoting largeeyes:
Does anyone have a current SST chart, ideally with 94L overlaid? This things gotta be sitting right on top of the GS.

Yea. I pointed that out early this am. Got no response.
113. 786
btwnx when I open the link I see Puerto Rico and Dominican to the N of the system
did 94L center just jump west,the visable loop looks like a SC hit...JMO
I just updated my blog if anyone would like to review......thanks.

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
Quoting howpomp:
If 93 and 94 get closer enough, wouldn't 94 slingshot 93 NWard and 93 would slingshot 94 SW, correct?


That would occur in an even fight but with 93l not having a center 94l might just absorb it.
confused why NWS posted this for connecticut,but then said there is not hazardous weather expected???



weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
One product issued by NWS for: 3 Miles ESE Durham CT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
420 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

CTZ005>008-NJZ002>005-011-NYZ067>070-251000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
420 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Quoting 786:
btwnx when I open the link I see Puerto Rico and Dominican to the N of the system


I see Nc and sc.
Quoting 786:
btwnx when I open the link I see Puerto Rico and Dominican to the N of the system


Maybe your system, its linking to 94L for me
is it rip for 93l?
(For easy reference 93L position as of 12GMT 20.5N 70.1W )
Times are in Eastern Standard


Station JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico (18N 66.2W)
Winds from North 1kts
Barometric Pressure of 1000mb (1-2am this morning) was the lowest seen in
the last 5 days. The same time 5 days ago the
pressure was 1011mb.


Station 41043 - South Western Atlantic (21N 65W)
Winds from E - ESE 13.6 kts Gust 15.5 kts
Significant changes in the 5DAY WIND & PRESSURE PLOT

Ships and drifting buoys Barometric Pressure

Temps have lingered at 64F this morning. Very cool. Great reason to open the windows.
Post 91 786 Go to atlantic wide view click on AVN color view nothing there dry as a bone no convection or storms in it
Quoting largeeyes:
Does anyone have a current SST chart, ideally with 94L overlaid? This things gotta be sitting right on top of the GS.


Link
Quoting stillwaiting:
did 94L center just jump west,the visable loop looks like a SC hit...JMO


Is moving WSW... so you'll be seeing a bit of a WSW move then a SW jump... before it goes back to WSW.
Quoting killdevilmax:

Yea. I pointed that out early this am. Got no response.


Here is an image in which you can clearly see the Gulf Stream off the coast of North Carolina. With my best estimate of current COC at 32.2°N 75.1°W it is actually slightly east of the Gulf Stream at the moment.

The forecast track towards southeast North Carolina will take it across the Gulf Stream though.


LSU SST CHART
127. 786
tropics yeah I just looked at it no thunder storms at all, the one at 30w is decent but still getting lots of activity from the ITCZ?

Quoting weatherman113:
is it rip for 93l?



not even close,I have a feeling we're just getting started w/93L,the center is over open water and will begin to regenerate this afternoon/tonight...look for it to be a named TC by TOMORROW!!!!!!
OSUWXGUY

Thanks. Was out there the other day and saw 82-84 F. Not many tuna however.
Thanks OSU.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just updated my blog if anyone would like to review......thanks.

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
thanx for the update Tampa Spin can You tell me why when I click on Your favorite link it loads but doesn,t show anything? just shows the frames going but blank window would like to see it
NEwxguy~ all the NWSs post a hazardous outlook product daily..even if to just say no hazardous weather is expected.
i'm starting to think the tropical disturbance will become nothing, allowing for there to be a stronger storm coming into the carolinas. If this scenario happens, I have yet to hear anyone's analysis of where the storm would go... but I doubt it would keep moving west. Not trying to jump the gun, but 93L looks almost like a dead-storm walking to me. Satillite on the coastal low looks much more impressive. What do u guys think?
Quoting 786:
btwnx when I open the link I see Puerto Rico and Dominican to the N of the system

its your computer that showing that...mine is showing 94L
131. tropics21 2:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just updated my blog if anyone would like to review......thanks.

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
thanx for the update Tampa Spin can You tell me why when I click on Your favorite link it loads but doesn,t show anything? just shows the frames going but blank window would like to see it


Its a very large file and takes a while to load especially if your using dialup.....just be patient...its worth it tho....
I don't think 94L can go SW in a hurry. It would have to moisten up some pretty dry air in a hurry. Dry stuff is wrapping into the center. Can it survive??
Quoting Skyepony:
NEwxguy~ all the NWSs post a hazardous outlook product daily..even if to just say no hazardous weather is expected.


Ok,I've never come across that and I've never seen it for my area here in boston area,so it struck me as strange,but thanks for your input
Quoting stillwaiting:



not even close,I have a feeling we're just getting started w/93L,the center is over open water and will begin to regenerate this afternoon/tonight...look for it to be a named TC by TOMORROW!!!!!!
NHC also indicates it could develop.
Quoting ChrisCone:
i'm starting to think the tropical disturbance will become nothing, allowing for there to be a stronger storm coming into the carolinas. If this scenario happens, I have yet to hear anyone's analysis of where the storm would go... but I doubt it would keep moving west. Not trying to jump the gun, but 93L looks almost like a dead-storm walking to me. Satillite on the coastal low looks much more impressive. What do u guys think?

I am just learning and so take this with a few grains of salt
I know 93L does not look like much today, but for the first time that I have seen the buoy readings are beginning to look like there is something there. I have not given up on 93L developing yet.

hurricanetrack.com said that 94L could possibly become a cat 1 and nc/sc needs to pay attention as we will have little time to react.
Be prepared!
Quoting killdevilmax:
OSUWXGUY

Thanks. Was out there the other day and saw 82-84 F. Not many tuna however.


I've heard Tuna fishing is a BLAST...I'll definitely have to try it sometime. Thanks for the update on what you saw temp wise.

82-84°F water is certainly warm enough to support tropical development, especially considering the relatively cold aloft.

The latest satellite shows a bit of northeasterly shear over the CoC as the cloud tops are being pushed to the southwest.
Quoting cynvision:
I don't think 94L can go SW in a hurry. It would have to moisten up some pretty dry air in a hurry. Dry stuff is wrapping into the center. Can it survive??


The dry air may inhibit it's transformation into tropical,but I wouldn't think it would effect it,if it stays extratropical or even subtropical.
Attention all Hands!!!!!!!!!!!!

as of this point we have raised just over $22,000.00 for our Ike relief efforts....and we are spening it as fast as it comes in....will break it down in a few days....

Patrap is on the scene and Icepilot is on the way with a load....stormjunki and FLDART are gonna do some needs assessment today and head back to regroup for the next round

I flew my wife home from Houston last night....her flight landed at 10:40P....we were up until past 5A this morning....she had much to say...lots of tears....some of joy....some of frustration....but suffice it to say: the "Forgotten People" we set out to help directly are in far better shape because of what y'all made possible.....

www.portlight.org
The trough is being pinched off at Cuba and will be lifting out very quick....this could get very interesting.....
Quoting cynvision:
I don't think 94L can go SW in a hurry. It would have to moisten up some pretty dry air in a hurry. Dry stuff is wrapping into the center. Can it survive??

Even if it doesn't go tropical it is still a strong nor'easter. There is already overwash on Hwy 12 on Hatteras Island and soundside flooding along the south sounds. 94 is still not on the WU site. The models haven't addressed it properly yet. It is over the Gulf Stream. It has my attention.
What is interesting is how far the very strong winds will be to the North. The deeper the low goes, the higher the gradient with that H to the North. Eastern NC and SC have had empty trash can warnings posted.
Hatteras, North Carolina (Airport)
Updated: 16 min 9 sec ago
70 °F / 21 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 58 °F / 14 °C
Wind: 18 mph / 30 km/h / 8.2 m/s from the NNE
Wind Gust: 36 mph / 57 km/h / 15.9 m/s
Hurricane force wind warning offshore of NC. Rarely issued.
Quoting NEwxguy:


The dry air may inhibit it's transformation into tropical,but I wouldn't think it would effect it,if it stays extratropical or even subtropical.


There is plenty of dry air near the coast with Dewpoints in the upper 50s in the coastal areas, and this will be a factor in holding down intensification of 94L somewhat.

However, the strong dynamics associated with this subtropical/tropical hybrid should cause strong synoptic scale lift and a large precip field. This should help moisten the environment.

Also, if you watch the TPW Cimms loop below, you can see an area of deep tropical moisture starting to be pulled up towards 94L from the southeast. This entrainment of deeper moisture should also help insulate 94L when it arrives and jumpstart some even deeper convection.
CIMMS TPW 72 HOUR
re: Attention all Hands!!!!!!!!!!!!

as of this point we have raised just over $22,000.00 for our Ike relief efforts....and we are spening it as fast as it comes in....will break it down in a few days....

HOLY CRAPPENHOBEN, this is JUST awesome....
all of my co-workers have participated and now they crowd around my desk at lunch wanting to see the pix.....i am SO PROUD to be a part of this!

GIVE MONEY, GIVE LOVE!!

jo
RE: 143. presslord

Thanks Press

Donating to portlight.org not only gives us that warm fuzzy feeling from doing the right thing, I feel more like a part of the effort than when contributing to other relief programs.
Many of us cannot go (or would be more of a hindrance than a help) and the pictures and narratives make me feel like I am there by proxy (Not sure if that makes sense, hard to put into words)

Thanks again
New Bern, North Carolina (Airport)
Updated: 22 min 9 sec ago
68 °F / 20 °C
Clear
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 56 °F / 13 °C
Wind: 20 mph / 32 km/h / 8.7 m/s from the NNE
Wind Gust: 30 mph / 48 km/h / 13.4 m/s
Pressure: 30.20 in / 1022 hPa (Steady)

GEZ!

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

ANZ086-242100-
HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR OUT TO 34N 71W TO 32N 73W
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

...N WALL OF THE GULF STREAM FROM 33.4N 77.3W TO 34N 76.2W TO
34.4N 75.6W TO 35N 75.2W...


THIS AFTERNOON
W OF 74W...NE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM INCREASING TO 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT...
EXCEPT NEAR THE GULF STREAM BUILDING TO 20 TO 30 FT. E OF
74W...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT SUBSIDING TO
10 TO 15 FT LATE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT.

TONIGHT
WINDS BECOMING E TO SE 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT W OF 76W
N TO NE 30 TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 15 TO 20 FT...EXCEPT
E PORTION 10 TO 15 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

THU
WINDS BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT THROUGHOUT LATE. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 14 FT...HIGHEST W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
Whats the chances of 94L moving SW towards NE Florida?
Quoting tea3781:
Whats the chances of 94L moving SW towards NE Florida?
very unlikely
I'm quite interested in seeing what the global models and the other new model runs have in store for 94L and possibly any interaction with 93L down the road.
Tampa, Thanks for the update. I had a question though. Right now 94L is subtropical. How do you think it will handle the transition to tropical? And with it being classified ST right now, with a transition to tropical will it have enough time to make Cat1 prior to landfall?
They've started announcing early dismissal for local schools here in ENC.
Nice wind gusts here in Raleigh
Quoting largeeyes:
They've started announcing early dismissal for local schools here in ENC.


Where in eastern NC? Getting ready to head down to Washington,NC in a little bit
Quoting tea3781:
Whats the chances of 94L moving SW towards NE Florida?


Such a move will possible with a stronger than expected High to the N with a SW to NE orientation like it currently has and 93L being a bit stronger to swing 94L further SW and 93L towards the NE. Currently the chances in my opinion would be of 30% of that happening.
154. tea3781 3:21 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Whats the chances of 94L moving SW towards NE Florida?


None. 94 will eventually be kicked north, and don't forget the weather associated with 94 will be well north and east of the center. South and west of the center will see very little rain, but gusty conditions. There will be a very tight moisture gradient with 94 on the south and west side. Charleston and points south will see very little rain if any due to the strong north and northwest winds and copious amounts of dry air currently over the southeast.
Quoting killdevilmax:

Even if it doesn't go tropical it is still a strong nor'easter. There is already overwash on Hwy 12 on Hatteras Island and soundside flooding along the south sounds. 94 is still not on the WU site. The models haven't addressed it properly yet. It is over the Gulf Stream. It has my attention.

I rode out to the pier and waves are hitting the beams. Sea foam is everywhere. old timers here are saying this is not a nor'easter but a hurricane in the making. Just thought I would pass this on for what it is worth.
You can see the shear pushing some of the convection that was around the center of 94L to the southwest on the visible loop. Other than that it still looks pretty impressive.
My professor will possibly be flying with the hurricane hunters tomorrow, and I'm trying to figure out which flight she will be on and which system she would fly into. (93L or 94L) She said they were going to call around 1:30 am EDT andi think she said the flight was leaving around 4:30 am. Any ideas? Thanks!
-Alicia
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


There is plenty of dry air near the coast with Dewpoints in the upper 50s in the coastal areas, and this will be a factor in holding down intensification of 94L somewhat.

However, the strong dynamics associated with this subtropical/tropical hybrid should cause strong synoptic scale lift and a large precip field. This should help moisten the environment.

Also, if you watch the TPW Cimms loop below, you can see an area of deep tropical moisture starting to be pulled up towards 94L from the southeast. This entrainment of deeper moisture should also help insulate 94L when it arrives and jumpstart some even deeper convection.
CIMMS TPW 72 HOUR

Great stuff OSU. thanks again and please keep it coming. Tuna fishing is supposed to get good after the ocean lays down but I've heard that before.

Duck ACOE Research Pier is reporting 26 kts. NNE 11.5' wave height. water temp. 72 f.
Link

Good site but the pictures have a delay. Victory at sea
160 Alock
Pamlico County. Most of it's down on the coast.
168. afj3
Quoting killdevilmax:

Is the sound over it's banks? All our water is yours now


I hope the lighthouse holds up. Good luck up there.
Here is a link of the Avalon Fishing Pier web cam showing the atlantic rolling. Link
link did not work for some reason (my stupidity prob) here is the site http://www.avalonpier.com/piercam.html
im in onslow county. i live on chadwick bay
here the winds blowing up to 25 and we just hit low tide but the tide is pretty high for low tide. well im heading to wilmington for a couple of hours and ill be back on later
Are there any model runs on 94? It looked like on the loop it was going in a southwestward motion or maybe just a jog. I live in Georgetown SC and wanted to know if this will affect us in our area if at all. BTW Im Chris and new to the board so hi to all!
hope this worksLink thanks champayne, nice picture of the 94
Quoting songohan1973:
Are there any model runs on 94? It looked like on the loop it was going in a southwestward motion or maybe just a jog. I live in georgetown and wanted to know if this will affect us in our area if at all. BTW Im Chris and new to the board so hi to all!
Hello Chris, the southwestward motion you may have been seeing is from the shear blowing the convection off the center.
wow for as much thats going on today blog is kinda slow.. It'll be interesting to see how things go today... 93L could blommum in a hurry and catch some folks off guard...

I cant wait to see how these 2 systems react to each other
Link you had too many https in the lonk try this
Quoting teckchick:
Here is a link of the Avalon Fishing Pier web cam showing the atlantic rolling. Link


Great shot
(for those of you having trouble bringing the link up try this
Pressure is still rising slowly here in new england,so that high over us is not moving out anytime soon.
Keywestbrat thanks for the link excellent !
179. 786
according to Gray's forecast we should see 7 more named systems, 4 of those canes and 2 of the 4 as major...looks like he has overestimated the #....of-course October could bring development closer to hm, but I think we have begun an abrupt winding dowm of the season.

Anything coming off Africa will have to stay further S to have a chance and move further W until any development occurs. This year has had active troughs pulling even weak systems N so chances are slim.

Anything that develops in the CAribbean I feel will pull a 93L type track N, NNE and out to sea, shear is also gradually on the rise so may keep anything that attempts to develop in check.

My opinion is 3 more named storms, 1 hurricane and its done.
786 I hope you are right and Dr. Gray is wrong!!
NEwxguy,

You've been living here since 2005, right?

Doesn't this set-up remind you of Oct 2005, but to a lesser extent (this won't be sticking around for two weeks).
182. Enola
Quoting tropics21:
no the hot air will fuel 94L

Ok then, everyone but politicians...get away from the coast! lol
how come you aren't talking about all the tropical storms that you promised were coming 10 days ago?
thanks for fixing that link for me. I have never tried to do it before. That ocean is rolling isn't it?Link
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE: 143. presslord

Thanks Press

Donating to portlight.org not only gives us that warm fuzzy feeling from doing the right thing, I feel more like a part of the effort than when contributing to other relief programs.
Many of us cannot go (or would be more of a hindrance than a help) and the pictures and narratives make me feel like I am there by proxy (Not sure if that makes sense, hard to put into words)

Thanks again


Well said !!
I'm also very impressed what is happening and the response that came in ( is coming in *s*)
Thank you all so much for what you are doing.
Did our nor'easter become tropical?
Quoting rhiles2760:
Did our nor'easter become tropical?


Not yet, but I think it will
Quoting saintsfan06:
786 I hope you are right and Dr. Gray is wrong!!
the last couple of years Dr Gray has always increased the number of storms only to be wrong
Quoting presslord:
Attention all Hands!!!!!!!!!!!!

as of this point we have raised just over $22,000.00 for our Ike relief efforts....and we are spening it as fast as it comes in....will break it down in a few days....

Patrap is on the scene and Icepilot is on the way with a load....stormjunki and FLDART are gonna do some needs assessment today and head back to regroup for the next round

I flew my wife home from Houston last night....her flight landed at 10:40P....we were up until past 5A this morning....she had much to say...lots of tears....some of joy....some of frustration....but suffice it to say: the "Forgotten People" we set out to help directly are in far better shape because of what y'all made possible.....

www.portlight.org


If you need any help while you are in Winnie or Bridge City, let me know...I am about 30 minutes away from Winnie and a bit closer to the bridge. Gas I think is in pretty good supply around here, unlike food! What you are doing is truely a blessing.
Chucktown so you dont think we will get much from 94L
Quoting Engine2:
Hello Chris, the southwestward motion you may have been seeing is from the shear blowing the convection off the center.
Yeah I see the shear. Thanks. Maybe they will have some model runs on this thing later. Or I guess I could keep watching the loops.
192. 786
I never noticed 4 days ago the ssd site had a weak invest all the way down at 4.0N!!! wonder what ever happened to that

20/2345 UTC 4.0N 23.4W TOO WEAK INVEST
Quoting tropics21:
Keywestbrat thanks for the link excellent !
your very welcome that was my very first link that i have done and champayne taught me how to do it, becoming less computer hopeless everyday "grin"
194. 786
take that back that is possibly the one at 10N 30W now
Quoting KEHCharleston:


Great shot
(for those of you having trouble bringing the link up try this
starting to get a bit choppy!
2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
IS ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY
WINDS OF UP TO 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS. AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.


sorry if already posted
Wow, that low and cold front are generating some strong winds here in New Smyrna! Got gusts yesterday up to 38mph, and 35mph today. These are the strongest winds since Fay came through. Impressive.
Quoting songohan1973:
Yeah I see the shear. Thanks. Maybe they will have some model runs on this thing later. Or I guess I could keep watching the loops.
Some additional models will come out around 2PM and after that
Quoting sullivanweather:
NEwxguy,

You've been living here since 2005, right?

Doesn't this set-up remind you of Oct 2005, but to a lesser extent (this won't be sticking around for two weeks).


yeh,somewhat similar,but the steering flows are different,we'll see what happens.
Quoting NEwxguy:


yeh,somewhat similar,but the steering flows are different,we'll see what happens.
October 2005 was no picnic in my area, between the overwash from the Great South Bay and the amount of rainfall we had, much of my area was flooded. Water was coming up through people's foundations in the basement and filling them up.
If you haven't heard yet, I have a new blog! Check it out. I'll be addressing different areas of emergency planning each month. If you have any topics you'd like me to touch on let me know. I'd love everyones input!
Quoting keywestbrat:
your very welcome that was my very first link that i have done and champayne taught me how to do it, becoming less computer hopeless everyday "grin"


I learn about tropics from everyone here so I figured I could give back with things I know about.
Quoting champagnedrmz:


I learn about tropics from everyone here so I figured I could give back with things I know about.
whoops sorry i spelt your name wrong, better learn how to spell next, LOL :)
You all talking fish. Maybe I head to the sunfish ponds this afternoon and see if the weather has them biting. :)
Actually, steering flows are quite the same.

If you remember, that 10 day wet period that saw some places get up to 2' of rain began as an inverted trough moved up the coast, propagating away from Tammy.

Tammy moved inland as the inverted trough stalled over the region. A couple days later at the tail end of the trough extending from Tammy's remnants and the dispersing trough over the Northeast we had the development of a sub-tropical depression (#22) which re-energized that SE flwo and dumped another round of heavy rain over the region.

Quoting rhiles2760:
Did our nor'easter become tropical?


It looks like it although i have a feeling Kyle will be sub-tropical at first.
Has anyone posted the "North Carolina coastal storm" is now red or was it that way before?


Just wanted to say thanks for everyone that's helping out here in Texas. It is appreciated!
786 check your mail
Quoting sullivanweather:
Actually, steering flows are quite the same.

If you remember, that 10 day wet period that saw some places get up to 2' of rain began as an inverted trough moved up the coast, propagating away from Tammy.

Tammy moved inland as the inverted trough stalled over the region. A couple days later at the tail end of the trough extending from Tammy's remnants and the dispersing trough over the Northeast we had the development of a sub-tropical depression (#22) which re-energized that SE flwo and dumped another round of heavy rain over the region.



Well,I'm hoping the trough doesn't stick around that long,but there is a lot of moisture,and a lot depends on whether 93l energizes itself and whether it gets flung out northeast or gets drawn back in,don't have a good feel for what's going to happen.
207. Elena85Vet been that way since 11:00 as far as i know. At least thats the first time i saw it
Also, this is from the first sub-tropical depression #22 discussion.

"IN THE SHORT TERM...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTH."


There's always the slightly altered positions of the steering flow and orientation of the highs and lows. But the commonground lies in the upper cut-off over Southeast(2008)/Bahamas(2005), deep-layer ridging over the Canadian Maritimes (both years), AND two tropical developments in similar locations off the Southeast Coast and the waters between Bermuda and Hispaniola. Quite amazing.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
If you haven't heard yet, I have a new blog! Check it out. I'll be addressing different areas of emergency planning each month. If you have any topics you'd like me to touch on let me know. I'd love everyones input!
And it's an excellent source of planning for those who are on the coast like Roger Ebert I give it a Thumbs Up
Complete Update

All Systems ... Atlantic
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Models
Caribbean System 93L ... with Cloud Cover
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)

Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
Cape Verde Blobs
CMC & ... The Carols
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Maine/Nova Scotia
Quoting keywestbrat:
whoops sorry i spelt your name wrong, better learn how to spell next, LOL :)


Quite alright. Actually Champagne is my Maiden name and no one knew how to pronounce it or spell it. I answer to just about anything. Ha Ha
UPDATE: Pat arrived in Anahuac, Texas about 1 1/2 hours ago. He got with the local Sheriff and they have unloaded the truck. Photos coming soon. They were so glad to see him. The Sheriff is sending him about 12 miles away to scope out the needs of another forgotten community. The truck Pat took went to: Mid Chambers Christian Caring Center, Inc. They need BLEACH among other things.

Thanks to all in this community for stepping up to the plate to help others in their time of need. God will not forget your generosity. Teresa
Quoting Patrap:
UPDATE: Pat arrived in Anahuac, Texas about 1 1/2 hours ago. He got with the local Sheriff and they have unloaded the truck. Photos coming soon. They were so glad to see him. The Sheriff is sending him about 12 miles away to scope out the needs of another forgotten community. The truck Pat took went to: Mid Chambers Christian Caring Center, Inc. They need BLEACH among other things.

Thanks to all in this community for stepping up to the plate to help others in their time of need. God will not forget your generosity. Teresa
thanks for the update.
218. MahFL
94L er has an eye.......
We are really being impacted here in Melbourne by whatever that thing in the Atlantic is....rain continues, howling wind and fast moving clouds from the NE.
Quoting champagnedrmz:


Quite alright. Actually Champagne is my Maiden name and no one knew how to pronounce it or spell it. I answer to just about anything. Ha Ha


marilyn?
Quoting MahFL:
94L er has an eye.......


where is the eye?
Quoting riograndpa:


marilyn?


Are you asking if that it my name or are you seeing if I'll answer?
Anyone know how fast/slow this red 'unnamed storm' is moving westward or northwestward? LOL

THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.


221. champagnedrmz

i think he is looking in the mirror
Apparently the canned cokes (not provided by Portlight) were only for lineman. The residents were only being allowed to drink water.

That is one of the more positive moves I've heard ... POP is terrible especially Diet crap ... loaded with sugar or loaded with aspartame (both lead to horrible health consequences)
226. 7544
look at this monster in the atlantic could that come in to play

Link
Is recon headed back out already? If so to which one?
Quoting 7544:
look at this monster in the atlantic could that come in to play

Link


holy crap wtf.. that models is on some steroids!
227. champagnedrmz plan of the day says tomorrow but that could change i guess
230. MahFL
If 94 L is going W or SW, how will it strike the NC/SC border ? More likely is a SC/GA hit surely ?

Quoting Clickerous:


holy crap wtf.. that models is on some steroids!


GFS is showing it as well.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


GFS is showing it as well.


Actuall almost every model is showing something in that area
233. MahFL
94L seems to has some banding near the center now.
230. MahFL

WNW according to NHC
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Anyone know how fast/slow this red 'unnamed storm' is moving westward or northwestward? LOL

THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.




Not sure why... but I guess they must be talking about the future track and not the current one.
More than likely it's an upper air low that gets trapped in the CATL, as depicted by the GFS. Very large weakness and if I remember correctly it is common this time of year and should put an end to the CV hurricane season.
237. MahFL
Addmittedly the "eye" just winked shut.

IR

Vis
238. GoWVU
Anyone

What should the Charleston SC area expect out of the storm off the carolina coast?
Looking at the northwest water vapor loop it looks like a v shape in the trough just over Okeechobee and half is going north the other half going south. Very strange.
240. MahFL
Quoting will40:
230. MahFL

WNW according to NHC


Yes well its going WSW so thats a moot point.
240. MahFL e_mail the NHC then
242. MahFL
Vis animated

Watch the "eye" come and go.
Quoting GoWVU:
Anyone

What should the Charleston SC area expect out of the storm off the carolina coast?


Chucktown said we are in the clear
I would go with his judgment
Look at 31.8N and 75.3W on the 15:45 UTC image.

I wanna know where that's going.

245. MahFL
Quoting will40:
240. MahFL e_mail the NHC then


I did once call Max Mayfield and tell him he was wrong....left a voice mail..lol.
246. GoWVU
Quoting KEHCharleston:


Chucktown said we are in the clear
I would go with his judgment


Thanks KEHCharleston
242. MahFL

thats dry air not an eye
Quoting tropics21:
And it's an excellent source of planning for those who are on the coast like Roger Ebert I give it a Thumbs Up


Thanks for checking it out. I am in Utah and prepare like this! You never know what will happen. So I encourage EVERYONE not just coastal areas to prepare.
238. GoWVU 4:39 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Anyone

What should the Charleston SC area expect out of the storm off the carolina coast?


Not much. We will be on the dry side of the storm. Its hard to rain across this area with a North or NW wind. Loads of dry air across the SE. The center itself will be less than 200 miles from Charleston, but minimal effects for the area. Winds however will be gusty and could approach TS force in gusts through Friday.
Pretty dang tight circulation with 94L. Seems to have tightened up a little more in the last two frames. Interested to see if there is a positive difference in core temp when recon gets there, sure looks tropical.
251. GoWVU
Quoting Chucktown:
238. GoWVU 4:39 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Anyone

What should the Charleston SC area expect out of the storm off the carolina coast?


Not much. We will be on the dry side of the storm. Its hard to rain across this area with a North or NW wind. Loads of dry air across the SE. The center itself will be less than 200 miles from Charleston, but minimal effects for the area. Winds however will be gusty and could approach TS force in gusts through Friday.


Thanks Chucktown I was just curious since it looks like it is going WSW
252. MahFL
Quoting will40:
242. MahFL

thats dry air not an eye


That's why I said "eye" not eye.
Recon hopefully gets there soon - Models should be out in an hour or so so hopefully they include 94 in their runs
Quoting champagnedrmz:


Are you asking if that it my name or are you seeing if I'll answer?


both-i used to work with a champagned

255. MahFL
Quoting GoWVU:


Thanks Chucktown I was just curious since it looks like it is going WSW


See..I am not the only one who thinks WSW.
Quoting riograndpa:


both-i used to work with a champagned



No that is not my name. Sharon is my name. Nice to meet you.
Quoting MahFL:


See..I am not the only one who thinks WSW.


I think SSSW personally.
253. Engine2

in a NHC discussion they said recon today but plan of the day still says tomorrow. so not sure which is right
Seems 94L is developing an eye "like" feature (at least trying)... not a true eye... but very closed to it.
255. MahFL 4:46 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting GoWVU:


Thanks Chucktown I was just curious since it looks like it is going WSW


See..I am not the only one who thinks WSW.


You're seeing the convective cloud tops being blown SW due to the NE winds over the storm. Shear is going to be limiting factor for this storm to fully develop. It is sitting over the warm Gulf Stream, but the shear and short time it will be over water will minimize development. I believe it will be named but still up in the air if it will become fully warm core or just a hybrid.

Quoting MahFL:


See..I am not the only one who thinks WSW.


NHC can't decide between 2 directions no reason you can't. :)
Looks like 93L maybe trying to mount a come back, convection has increased over the last couple of hours.
Quoting Chucktown:
255. MahFL 4:46 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting GoWVU:


Thanks Chucktown I was just curious since it looks like it is going WSW


See..I am not the only one who thinks WSW.


You're seeing the convective cloud tops being blown SW due to the NE winds over the storm. Shear is going to be limiting factor for this storm to fully develop. It is sitting over the warm Gulf Stream, but the shear and short time it will be over water will minimize development. I believe it will be named but still up in the air if it will become fully warm core or just a hybrid.

That explains why we are having the winds/rain from the NE going SW? (Melbourne)
Looks mightily small.
Chucktown what do you think about the big wave that the GFS is predicting anychance that if effects the US Coast
266. 7544
Quoting Engine2:
Looks like 93L maybe trying to mount a come back, convection has increased over the last couple of hours.


starting to suck in way alot of dry air tho
According to the GFS, landfall isn't expected for another 48hrs with 94L and lingering effects beyond to 72 hrs with the addition of 93L.
Can't get the DR Radar to work in Loop mode, its stuck
265. Tsapp2008 4:53 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Chucktown what do you think about the big wave that the GFS is predicting anychance that if effects the US Coast


Which big wave?
Steering 15Z current update...

93L disorganized WX should be starting to move N/NNE soon. Is currently under a SSE flow...

I expect 94L to continue moving WSW with a few S jumps as it is currently being block from making any W to NW moves for the time being as there are 2 highs to its west causing a steering flow pattern oriented SW to NE.

Shear at 15Z shows pretty high shear environments for these 2 systems so I don't expect them to organize much for the time being.
I wonder why 94L is on the WU yet
Chucktown it is on the 06GFS
271. Engine2

because Navy is the only one that has it as 94L
Quoting Engine2:
Can't get the DR Radar to work in Loop mode, its stuck


DR radar is down.
Quoting will40:
271. Engine2

because Navy is the only one that has it as 94L
Will 94L not be included in the Model Run updates then until the NHC declars it 94L?
276. 7544
Quoting Chucktown:
265. Tsapp2008 4:53 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Chucktown what do you think about the big wave that the GFS is predicting anychance that if effects the US Coast


Which big wave?


this one

Link

but where will it go w ?
It is on the NHC site as 94L
275. Engine2

dont know about model runs but it is not 94l until the NHC desiginates it
Flight scheduled into a non-investigative area? I find that hard to believe, SSD site has 94L up on the floater.
280. 7544
gem for a fla system

Link
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Flight scheduled into a non-investigative area? I find that hard to believe, SSD site has 94L up on the floater.
Perhaps they are more concerned with this one???
Updated

Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
279. TheCaneWhisperer well as i said earlier plan of the day dosnt show it until tomorrow
276. 7544 5:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Chucktown:
265. Tsapp2008 4:53 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Chucktown what do you think about the big wave that the GFS is predicting anychance that if effects the US Coast


Which big wave?


this one

Link

but where will it go w ?


That is just the NOGAPS showing 93 and 94 getting together as one. This is entirely possible and some models show this Fujiwhara effect happening.

Link

check and tell me what i am seeing wrong
That's what throws me.

NHC has it on satellite Atlantic Floater 2
as 94L But doesn't refer to it as 94L in discussion.

It must be stationary due to them saying movement later today or tonight as westward or northwestward. General speed would be helpful to know as well.
287. 7544
Quoting Chucktown:
276. 7544 5:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Chucktown:
265. Tsapp2008 4:53 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Chucktown what do you think about the big wave that the GFS is predicting anychance that if effects the US Coast


Which big wave?


this one

Link

but where will it go w ?


That is just the NOGAPS showing 93 and 94 getting together as one. This is entirely possible and some models show this Fujiwhara effect happening.




errr look to the east thats the big wave they meant lol
Quoting will40:
Link

check and tell me what i am seeing wrong


Today's been updated, if you check the times.

So, yes they'll be flying into 94L today.
deleted
289. nolesjeff

yes i know i have posted that but it still isnt scheduled according to plan
It does not look to me as if any of the storms have been updated on WU

93L 8AM

TS Hagiput 9PM JST = 8AM EST (I think)
Quoting 7544:
gem for a fla system

Link


Indeed... I mentioned last night and the day before, that the GOM will need to be watch for 2 tropical system development starting on Monday. The second one will be close to a week apart. These systems will unfortunately be affecting FL since the current steering patterns for this time of the year favor the E Gulf states.
The east coast is a mess,a lot of moisture,in there and when 93l moves into the picture,even more moisture will be added.Potential for a lot of rain if one or both gets his act together
Orca - good to see you, I have a question...which I think you once answered for me before reagarding a past hurricane katrina (?) -- Is there a pic that would show a plume (if there is one) of all the "ick" from Ike in the gulf?
The way the ridge is oriented right now the 94L has no choice but to move WSW-SW in the short term. How the ridge sets up as it moves east will determine how long that continues. Then you throw 93L into the mix and you have a monkey wrench in the blender.
Quoting will40:
289. nolesjeff

yes i know i have posted that but it still isnt scheduled according to plan


All due respect but, this kinda popped up a little more than was expected. Landfall in 48hrs by some of the models, they better get a handle on it quick.
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed... I mentioned last night and the day before, that the GOM will need to be watch for 2 tropical system development starting on Monday. The second one will be close to a week apart. These systems will unfortunately be affecting FL since the current steering patterns for this time of the year favor the E Gulf states.


I'm not sure if this holds true, but one of my old professors told me the first strong cold front that makes it off the Texas Coast and into the GOM basically shuts down the hurricane season for that region.
The rest of the season will favor storms moving eastward towards Florida.
CHUCKTOWN
What do you see for ILM in the next couple of days?
Tks
296. TheCaneWhisperer

i agree maybe they havent listed the change in the plan yet
Here is some model guidance for 94L from around 8AM EST today
SFLCAT5 -- Lovely avatar!!! Just got done squeaking a paddle in during lunch break, getting ready to go work the barns... got to get ready for windswell grace of coldfront --- or jump over to the other coast. Winds are quite strong here in SRQ -- EC must be a washing machine
I dont see a flight in the air yet but if they are flying from Tampa it wont take long to get there
298. MissNadia 5:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
CHUCKTOWN
What do you see for ILM in the next couple of days?
Tks


Wilmington will be a whole different ballgame. While the center of 94 will be very close to you tomorrow the question still remains; how much moisture can wrap into the center. Dry air to the west will almost certainly be entrained into the system. I still think wind and a very high surf will be the biggest concern for the coast of NC. The OBX are going to be lashed over the next few days. Wouldn't be surprised to see Cantore there tonight.

Quoting surfmom:
SFLCAT5 -- Lovely avatar!!! Just got done squeaking a paddle in during lunch break, getting ready to go work the barns... got to get ready for windswell grace of coldfront --- or jump over to the other coast. Winds are quite strong here in SRQ -- EC must be a washing machine


Yeah, I'm also hurting for waves.
Looks like things could get going in the near future for the GOM.
Hopefully we get some nice waves without a landfalling system.
it wouldn't surprise me if another eddy is spun off soon...
Quoting Chucktown:
298. MissNadia 5:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
CHUCKTOWN
What do you see for ILM in the next couple of days?
Tks


Wilmington
will be a whole different ballgame. While the center of 94 will be very
close to you tomorrow the question still remains; how much moisture can
wrap into the center. Dry air to the west will almost certainly be
entrained into the system. I still think wind and a very high surf will
be the biggest concern for the coast of NC. The OBX are going to be
lashed over the next few days. Wouldn't be surprised to see Cantore
there tonight.


I have been off the coast for the morning and conditions have gone downhill in the last couple of hours...have to get going on preps. Thanks for the info
311. MahFL
Quoting tristanh72:
Just wanted to say thanks for everyone that's helping out here in Texas. It is appreciated!


I donated a few $ to the Red Cross, good luck to all Texan's.
Well, just dropped in for a peak. I've got to get back to work.
I'll stop in later to see how the East Coast is holding up with 94L.
so, has anyone heard on conditions in SW Louisiana? i knew SE Texas got hit pretty hard, but i haven't heard much about La....
94L is up on the SFWMD Page
StormW do you have an exclaimation why WU doesnt have anything listing the area off NC coast?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I'm not sure if this holds true, but one of my old professors told me the first strong cold front that makes it off the Texas Coast and into the GOM basically shuts down the hurricane season for that region.
The rest of the season will favor storms moving eastward towards Florida.


Weird ehh... is like closing a door to certain places as season changes. lol
STORM W--Where can i find other computer models other than the ones listed at the bottom of Dr-M,s blog?
94L definitely gulping up some dry air. Cloud tops warming.
Quoting hydrus:
STORM W--Where can i find other computer models other than the ones listed at the bottom of Dr-M,s blog?
Like These?
Hope Texas is off the hook. But if you believe the W Pac can telleconnect to the Atlantic a wk to ten days look out for a west tracker.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, I'm also hurting for waves.
Looks like things could get going in the near future for the GOM.
Hopefully we get some nice waves without a landfalling system.
Thats for sure Waves w/o any grief - my new vow is to visit portlight.org and drop a donation in the bucket every time I ride 'cane waves (although I'm dropping in the bucket today..just cause I got out to paddle)
Quoting Engine2:
Like These?


Take yer pick:
1. Fla/Ga border.
2. Central SC coast
3. Southern NC coast
4. Central NC coast
5. Out to sea.
Quoting will40:
StormW do you have an exclaimation why WU doesnt have anything listing the area off NC coast?


Will

Nothing has been updated since 8AM - it is not just 94L information

See post 291

I have no idea why the delay in the update
ENGINE-2-Thank you for the response,those will help but i am trying to find the long range models with the graphics with the high and low pressure areas shown and animated.
Expansion at 31.8N 75.3W

Link
It looks like it is moving WSW!
323. KEHCharleston

Because NHC hasn't updated since 8:00AM?

I am off to get things ready for 94l landfall, but this is what I have in the yard now
Wind N at 23 kts + 28
Press 30.09 and falling
Water temp 77F
Cloudy skies with good vis.
Quoting hydrus:
ENGINE-2-Thank you for the response,those will help but i am trying to find the long range models with the graphics with the high and low pressure areas shown and animated.
Then please try these Link
330. GoWVU
Quoting tea3781:
It looks like it is moving WSW!


I thought the same thing
Quoting tea3781:
It looks like it is moving WSW!
It's not really moving maybe drifting west but the convection is get sheared sw.
Correction 10:00am
93l,does not look good at this time,and starting to doubt it is going to amount to anything at this point
Quoting NEwxguy:
93l,does not look good at this time,and starting to doubt it is going to amount to anything at this point


The spin looks like it's moving wnw now while the convection is going north. I'm really starting to think it will be 94l's dinner.
RE :327. Elena85Vet

I think it is a WU thing

Back from classes this morning and must say that Invest 94L has completely caught me off guard. Yesterday at this time, I was not even considering a possible tropical storm developing off the Carolina coastline, but it sure appears that could happen now. This system looks far better than Invest 93L ever has and WILL suck Invest 93L in before it ever gets another opportunity to become a classified tropical system.

That brings me to Invest 93L. I doubt that it will ever develop given its current extreme disorganization and the fact that the Carolina coastal storm has been ramping far faster than anyone ever expected and will force Invest 93L into it.
Quoting surfmom:
Orca - good to see you, I have a question...which I think you once answered for me before reagarding a past hurricane katrina (?) -- Is there a pic that would show a plume (if there is one) of all the "ick" from Ike in the gulf?


I will look around for it, I have not seen anything like it lately..

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This experimental product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE LOW IS
PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
WARNINGS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG




southflcat5
'm not sure if this holds true, but one of my old professors told me the first strong cold front that makes it off the Texas Coast and into the GOM basically shuts down the hurricane season for that region.
The rest of the season will favor storms moving eastward towards Florida.

That's interesting. We had a "cool"front come in after Ike but no cold fronts yet. Not to get complacent but I did a search and didn't see any major Texas storms after Sept.
340. GoWVU
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Back from classes this morning and must say that Invest 94L has completely caught me off guard. Yesterday at this time, I was not even considering a possible tropical storm developing off the Carolina coastline, but it sure appears that could happen now. This system looks far better than Invest 93L ever has and WILL suck Invest 93L in before it ever gets another opportunity to become a classified tropical system.

That brings me to Invest 93L. I doubt that it will ever develop given its current extreme disorganization and the fact that the Carolina coastal storm has been ramping far faster than anyone ever expected and will force Invest 93L into it.


If 94L does bring 93L into it where does it go?
ENGINE-2-I have the models you posted but cant get them to animate.Any suggestions?
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Back from classes this morning and must say that Invest 94L has completely caught me off guard. Yesterday at this time, I was not even considering a possible tropical storm developing off the Carolina coastline, but it sure appears that could happen now. This system looks far better than Invest 93L ever has and WILL suck Invest 93L in before it ever gets another opportunity to become a classified tropical system.

That brings me to Invest 93L. I doubt that it will ever develop given its current extreme disorganization and the fact that the Carolina coastal storm has been ramping far faster than anyone ever expected and will force Invest 93L into it.


You should look at the models sometime, or read Dr M's write ups.. 94L has been predicted for days now and is right on time.. even the CMC had it 4 days ago.
334. HurricaneKing

Which begs the question, how fast will the '94l' be moving once it starts making it's way Westward or West Northwestward later today or tonight?

93l is a long way away for that scenario.
hydrus, the control panel is on the right handside of the screen on each model. Scroll over on the screen if you have to. Otherwise I believe they are java enabled controls so possibly update your java
Quoting hydrus:
ENGINE-2-I have the models you posted but cant get them to animate.Any suggestions?


To the extreme right is the controls for animation. Scroll there.
346. P451
I am curious. A number of models early on had the Nor'Easter developing and potentially migrating westward into the Carolinas. In doing so the models responded by bringing 93L westward into the Mid-Atlantic region.

What has changed where the Nor'Easter (or what it might now become) will still potentially migrate westward - but - 93L is now thought to at best guess head northward into the Canadian Maritimes?

What happened to the potential fujiwara effect?


And, Lastly, as has been seen time and again, when two potentially deep systems interact the models have a very tought time predicting the movement of either let alone both.

IMO - This is still a very low confidence forecast of which whose confidence will not rise much until late in the day Thursday.
October shifts the danger focus eastward toward the E. Gulf of Mexico, and dramatically increases the chances of a FL W Coast landfall. (I.E.-Wilma, Mitch, etc.) As with any season though nothing is etched in stone, just a general pattern.
Orca ~ I gotta agree. We ain't been saying ya'll get ready for a blow on the east coast for nothing. No suprise 94L is already 55kts. The pressure gradient in ECFL is pretty tight from all this.
so with 94L developing...how far south will the winds and effects be felt? Not sure if it is drifting SW or if the convection is building to the SW...any input would be appreciated.
Back from lunch...

Looks like 94L has/is struggling with dry air. Still expect this to hold down intensification a bit, but 94L will make landfall will winds on the border between a strong TS and a Cat 1 hurricane.

Some new convection is starting to pop near the CoC now, but ultimately it will be Dmax and the inflow of moisture related to 93L from the southeast that should start more extensive deep convection later this evening and overnight.
Complete refresh

All Systems ... Atlantic
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Models
Caribbean System 93L ... with Cloud Cover
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
Cape Verde Blobs
CMC & ... The Carols
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Maine/Nova Scotia
on this site...more than half the models have it hitting central SC...?

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/94-googlemaps.shtml
Buoy off NC Diamond Shoals winds sustained at 38MPH gusting to about 50 MPH
Quoting Elena85Vet:
334. HurricaneKing

Which begs the question, how fast will the '94l' be moving once it starts making it's way Westward or West Northwestward later today or tonight?

93l is a long way away for that scenario.


2 tropical systems yes. A giant nor easter subtropical thing and a weak invest that can be easily pulled apart no.
to the naked eye, 93l looks like it has lost it's spin, Linkahh no pun intended
nothing there from 93l,so the fujiwara effect is not in play here anymore
but because 93 doesn't have spin, can't 94 absorb the moisture and all making 94 a little stronger? 2 spins would conflict, one spin and one blog of moisture...bigger spin...yes?
93l went orange.

Link
orca, you are correct. Doc Masters started talking about the nor'easter--which is now 94 last week. He said those on the coast of NC/SC should be prepared for possible TS conditons on Friday. IF you read todays blog from him---he calls for a landfall on NC/SC border. I tend to listen to him.
ENGINE-2-I tried to animate and it will not.I cannot figure out what I am doing wrong but I shall keep trouble shooting.
hydrus...

at the bottom of the screen you have to scroll bar all the way to the right and hit the FWD button...there is no play button...hope that helped...=)
I'm thinking the updated models don't have a good handle on 94L yet, both the GFDL and HWRF take it into North Carolina and dissipate it right away. They also still have 93L cranking up.
Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy
(Data from this buoy is helpful to those in Wilmington)


Thanks KenChar--that is in the gulf stream if I am not mistaken. BIG fishing area anyways.
Engine2...

not good with posting links, they always mess up for me...but open another tab and paste this in the addy bar...more than half the models have 94 hitting central SC....

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/94-googlemaps.shtml
FYI...HH departing from Biloxi, MS to check out 94L.
367. GoWVU
Quoting tiggeriffic:
Engine2...

not good with posting links, they always mess up for me...but open another tab and paste this in the addy bar...more than half the models have 94 hitting central SC....

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/94-googlemaps.shtml


I just looked at it and it looks like Central SC could have an X on it.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
Engine2...

not good with posting links, they always mess up for me...but open another tab and paste this in the addy bar...more than half the models have 94 hitting central SC....

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/94-googlemaps.shtml
Another thing to remember is that it seems most of these models did not initiate on the actual center of circulation. The next run will most likely give us better results and perhaps a smaller spread of possibilities
hey WVU...been lurking huh? ROFL
370. GoWVU
Quoting tiggeriffic:
hey WVU...been lurking huh? ROFL


Yes, LOL
94L is looking the worst it has all day imo.
but the spread is already small throwing out the CLIPS stuff which is models of past storms. Throw those out and the spread is actually rather small...just an observation, but even though they didn't predict it, they are starting from where it is now
largeeyes - I agree that shear is really displacing that convection to the southwest and cloud tops are warming
watching TWC...just had central SC under high winds watch from 94...it was blue from Charleston to about Awendaw
Also agree, this will probably stay a non-tropical syatem
Quoting largeeyes:
94L is looking the worst it has all day imo.


Dry air wrapping around it. There's also plenty where it came from...

The combination of Shear and Dry air will not allow this one to attain a lot of convection... but it could still generate some strong winds.
also will depend on when it comes onshore...if it is during high tide...it won't need the rain to cause flooding in a lot of areas....
Our area under flood advisory as well as wind from 94 so far....
Front that just came through didn't have any moisture to work with, very few clouds much less precip. Nothing for 94 to work with in this envioronment. Getting some breezes already from the gradient set up as far north as DC,MD
Station 41036 - Onslow Bay, NC (34.2N 76.9W - Off Coast Southern North Carolina)

ok...gotta bounce for a bit...laundry awaits me....=P
High Wind Advisory up for 6am-6pm tomorrow in Central NJ. Also Coastal Flood Advisory for southern Jersey shore.
High over new england seems to be sliding eastward finally
Im in Atlantic city, NJ and winds are already gusting to 39.
Winds picking up in S Fla as well. ?
Continuing south along coastal waters:

Station 41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC _Yikes_ (32.5N 80W )


That's it for me - will be waiting for 5pm advisory
Quoting papasturgeon:
,,,Getting some breezes already from the gradient set up as far north as DC,MD


I was going to mention that gradient...Areas like Virginia Beach will have abnormally high tides and big surf, strong winds and gust of maybe 40-50.

As we know people get fixated on the center and don't realize hazards far north of landfall.

-rob
Winds here in SWFL running on the 15mph range with higher gusts. Pressure is falling here.
ST2.5 dvorak intensity estimates, as well as if it is determined to have enough tropical characteristics, it could be classified as Subtropical Storm Kyle.
Quoting Vortex95:
Winds picking up in S Fla as well. ?
SWFL Winds are quite stiff - 11 mph with stronger gusts
Central FL - winds have actually dropped off from what they were this morning currently around 10-15

-rob
93L also may be disorganized but pretty much all of the major and reliable models develop it, including the GFDL and HWRF.
94L and weather



395. 7544
Quoting Vortex95:
Winds picking up in S Fla as well. ?


that would be the tail from 94l it was mention today
Shoals here, have not posted in a long time but I live in hatteras & wanted to post a local webcam in Rodanthe- yes this is the exact spot where the movie coming out was filmed; Nights in Rodanthe. As usual the ocean has already broke through in several spots.

Link
Impressive...
That Storm in the Central Atlantic looks interesting wonder how far south it will go.
Whens Recon going into 94L?
Diamond Shoals Buoy reports sustained winds of 40MPH with gusts upwards of 50MPH
GUANGZHOU, Sept. 24 (Xinhua) -- Three people died and two were missing as Typhoon Hagupit made landfall in south China's Guangdong Province early on Wednesday, local authorities said.

More than 4.94 million people in Maoming, Yangjiang, Zhuhai and Jiangmen cities were affected and 7,915 houses collapsed.

A Guangdong Provincial Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters official said 180,260 hectares of crops were affected and 38,980 ha were ruined.

He said 870 factories stopped production and 34 roads were cut off. In addition, 32 reservoirs and 287.8 km of dams were damaged. The direct economic loss was 5.45 billion yuan (800 million U.S. dollars), he said.

Also, 99 hydro stations recorded more than 100 millimeters of rain and 258 stations recorded more than 50 mm of rain on Wednesday, he said.

Er Jingping, general secretary of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and deputy head of the Water Resources Ministry, went to Guangdong to guide the rescue work on Wednesday morning.

The 14th strong typhoon of the year landed in Dianbai County in the city of Maoming at 6:45 a.m. with winds of more than 200 km per hour at its eye, the Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau said.

---
low number of deaths reported so far.. though this is early information.
Hello! Seems we have a HIGH alert now for 94L, which I didn't even know of this morning. 94L looks likely to become Sub-Tropical storm Kyle, then Tropical Storm Kyle, then Nor'easter Kyle and combined with 93L
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #7
03:00 AM JST September 25 2008
===========================================

CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Jangmi (992 hPa) located at 12.8N 135.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 12 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
================
140 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.1N 131.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 18.8N 128.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.1N 124.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

---
new system Tropical Storm Jangmi "Ofel" forecast to be strong typhoon later this weekend.
Once recon investigates this afternoon and evening, if they find that the system has and is gaining tropical characteristics and with the ST 2.5 dvorak numbers we could se Kyle tonight.
Quoting extreme236:
Once recon investigates this afternoon and evening, if they find that the system has and is gaining tropical characteristics and with the ST 2.5 dvorak numbers we could se Kyle tonight.


Looks like it is too, Funny how this is almost exactly how the last Kyle formed.
94l is hungry for moisture.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #7
03:00 AM JST September 25 2008
===========================================

CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Jangmi (992 hPa) located at 12.8N 135.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 12 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
================
140 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.1N 131.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 18.8N 128.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.1N 124.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

---
new system Tropical Storm Jangmi "Ofel" forecast to be strong typhoon later this weekend.


Looks likely that the West Pacific will get they're first super Typhoon of the season.
Quoting shoals:
Shoals here, have not posted in a long time but I live in hatteras & wanted to post a local webcam in Rodanthe- yes this is the exact spot where the movie coming out was filmed; Nights in Rodanthe. As usual the ocean has already broke through in several spots.

Link


Not sure what happened but it appears the webcam got knocked around...keep checking it because it's amazing to see the ocean piling across the highway.
Afternoon All,
Can someone tell why the pressure in the Turks and Caicos Island is so low???? Does it mean soemthing with regards to 93l? Thanks
Temperature: 82.0 °F / 27 °C
Humidity: 73%
Dew Point: 72 °F / 22 °C
Wind: 5.0 mph / 8 km/hfrom the North
Wind Gust: 17.0 mph / 27 km/h
Pressure: 29.62 in / 1002.9 hPa
Heat Index: 85 °F / 30 °C
Elevation: 40 ft / 12 m
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks like it is too, Funny how this is almost exactly how the last Kyle formed.


this season seems to be doing that... Bertha 2008 was similar to bertha 1996
Funny thing also is, all the model's forcasted this to become a Nor'easter, not a Sub-Tropical system, show's you how surprising stuff happens.
Looks like the GOM will have to be watched soon.
Quoting futuremet:
Looks like the GOM will have to be watched soon.


Was just about to say something about that, its an area of disturbed weather that I saw this morning.
Pressure starting to fall over the Northeast - High Pressure is pushing eastward out of the area
Link
looks like it needs to get rid of some dry air
418. 7544
93l going backwards back to pr
yep CMC hinting at a TD/TS, heading west to WNW towards Fla Cuba in 1 1/2 to 2 weeks.
Quoting capefearspt:
Link
looks like it needs to get rid of some dry air
Looks like it maybe working to pinch off that dry slot of air
408. CybrTeddy 7:35 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

oh no, not the first.. Typhoon Rammasun was a super typhoon early this season. and was the first JMA "Category Five, intense typhoon" this year.
93L may find itself between a rock (94L) and a hard place (mid atlantic monster) soon. Have a feeling folks in Puerto Rico would get a great deal of satisfaction if they get to watch it ripped to shreds!

-rob
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link
424. ATS3
recon at 30k flying over ga heading east
Quoting SFLGirl1:
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link


You've got to be kidding! ROFL
Surf report for NE FL showing 20 - 25 mph winds

http://fluidgroove.net/
Quoting SFLGirl1:
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link


Well this kind of explains it doesn't it?
Man blames bear-hog mixup on beer LMAO
Quoting SFLGirl1:
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link


I like that. It's thinking out of the box. :)
Quoting SFLGirl1:
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link


Where's the Cat in the Hat?
CybrTeddy.. from my WU archives for the Super Typhoon


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
0:00 AM JST May 11 2008

Subject: Category 5 Typhoon east of Philippines

At 15:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Rammasun (0802) [915 hPa] located near 17.4N 131.9E had 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts up to 150 knots. The typhoon was reported moving north at 12 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
====================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
======================
270 NM southwest from the center.
180 NM northeast from the center.

Forecast Intensity and Position
===============================
24 HRS: 21.6N 133.1E - 95 knots [CAT 4]
48 HRS: 26.3N 136.7E - 80 knots [CAT 3]
72 HRS: 33.4N 143.7E - 55 knots [CAT 2]

You guys talking about the disturbance in the GOM now? lol that one got no chance imo sheer and stuff.
This image shows us the immediate concerns for the Atlantic.

Quoting PcolaDan:


Well this kind of explains it doesn't it?
Man blames bear-hog mixup on beer LMAO


I actually live a few blocks from Lion Country and and I figured the guy may have had to many, there arent any bears near here LOL Lions and Rhinos yes, but no bears
WPAC has quite low standard for a cat 5 105 knot winds?
Recon approaching the Georgia coastline
Quoting Vortex95:
WPAC has quite low standard for a cat 5 105 knot winds?


10-min sustained though
Convection flaring again at 31.8N 75.3W

It's been pulsing there all day and seems to be the center.

Link
434. Vortex95 7:52 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

ya the JMA doesn't raise the sustained winds very high like the other RSMC's
94L looks like it is subtropical...core probably hasn't had time to warm enough to be tropical and the wind field hasn't had a lot of time to contract. Also, convection near and over the center is rather weak and confined to convective bands, classic for a subtropical system. If convection begins to deepen over the center and near it, then it shows a progression toward tropical status.
if you see the JMA put the intensity at 115 or 120.. the 1 minute sustained winds would be around 160-170 knots.
my 4:00 PM Update.

Tropical Disturbance Invest 93L.

Overnight, 93L rapidly became disorganized, likely due to Dry air, land interaction with Haiti, and wind shear. However, all signs point to a weak Tropical Storm in the Atlantic, Right now the NHC has lowed their chances of development, now down to a 20-50% Chance of becoming a system, and right with them, So do I.

93L has continued to not spin up a Surface Circulation, and will need to do so in order to fight off its Semi-Hostile environment.

Sub-Tropical Disturbance 94L
Over the past few day's, model's have been pointing at an Extra-tropical low to develop and turn into a Nor'easter, that appears to be happening, but in a different way, instead, its a Sub-Tropical system, 94L. Right now the NHC gives 94L a HIGH (50%>) for development. Recon is currently on route to 94L, I expect we will see Sub-Tropical Depression 11, or Sub-Tropical Storm Kyle later today.
HaHa== We have bears, hogs, and armadillos. Don't think I've ever drank enough to mistake one for the other.

-rob
Quoting Vortex95:
yep CMC hinting at a TD/TS, heading west to WNW towards Fla Cuba in 1 1/2 to 2 weeks.


where is this system for FL?
Recon is just entering the waters of the Atlantic off the Georgia coast.
THE PERFECT STORM TAKE 2?

Shes winding up. Winds about 30 out of the ne here in town
94LINVEST.55kts-1007mb-317N-750W
443 I meant from ENE got mixed up.

and 55 kt winds?
a 60MPH Invest - nice
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
94LINVEST.55kts-1007mb-317N-750W


Already a 65 MPH System? Shoot, the convection, circulation. Hello kyle?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Already a 65 MPH System? Shoot, the convection, circulation. Hello kyle?
5 pm will be interesting.
446. Stormchaser2007
94LINVEST.55kts-1007mb-317N-750W


That's where they need to be.
At last report they were at 32.883N 80.000W
Anyone notice the new blob blowing up convection at about 14N 39W? It looks to have some lower level vorticity it is trying to organize. Part of it is under 10 knots of sheer and seems to be moving into a more favorable area.
38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph)


From Recon in 94L.
Don't be surprised to see a vortex message here soon.
How far south do we think that 94 is going to go? Also, anyone have a clue on timeframes? I know for every storm, SOMEONE has to ask the question...so I'm going to ask it. I am leaving for PA in the morning...flying up there. Coming back to GA on Sat morning...just need to find out the time frame so I'm not stuck someplace.
Quoting SFLGirl1:
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link


LMAO!!! Ignorance is blissed for them I guess...
The key for 94L to be classified/named will be what the HH's find in the core. It will need to be a warm core system or it will just be considered a nor'easter.
459. Vero1
NEW BLOOOOGGGGGGG!!!
Someone has mentioned a FL hit in the next 2 weeks. Can someone please tell me which one to look at? Where are they seeing that?

Thank you in advance!!!
Ok everyone don't talk at one time
Quoting melwerle:
How far south do we think that 94 is going to go? Also, anyone have a clue on timeframes? I know for every storm, SOMEONE has to ask the question...so I'm going to ask it. I am leaving for PA in the morning...flying up there. Coming back to GA on Sat morning...just need to find out the time frame so I'm not stuck someplace.


I believe this is as far south it will go.

The new steering flow from 18Z shows that the High to the West has weakened a bit so it should start a more Westward track soon if I'm not mistaking.
Complete Update, with Both Hurricane Hunters ontask or enroute.

All Systems ... Atlantic
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Models
Caribbean System 93L ... with Cloud Cover
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Carols System 94L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
Cape Verde Blobs
CMC & ... The Carols
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Maine/Nova Scotia