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North Carolina coastal storm may become Subtropical Storm Kyle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:16 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

A subtropical storm (one with characteristics of both a tropical and an extratropical storm) has developed off the coast of North Carolina today. This storm is being referred to as 94L by NHC. Visible satellite loops show that some heavy thunderstorm activity has developed near the center, which is characteristic of tropical storms. However, 94L's heaviest thunderstorm activity is well away from the center, in a long curved band that arcs from the center northeastwards for several hundred miles. This configuration is characteristic of a subtropical or extratropical storm. Thus, 94L qualifies as a hybrid subtropical storm. We typically get one or two subtropical storms per year in the Atlantic, and I've written up a subtropical storm tutorial that talks about the differences between the various types of storms. Subtropical storms get named by NHC if they are judged to be sufficiently tropical in nature. The exact criteria used to make this judgment are somewhat subjective, but 94L is currently judged to be more extratropical than tropical, so has not been named yet. NHC is currently giving 94L a high (>50% chance) of becoming a subtropical storm by Friday, and 94L would become Subtropical Storm Kyle if it were to get a name. Subtropical and tropical storms create similar winds, but tropical storms make more rain. Subtropical storms cannot strengthen to hurricane status--they must become fully tropical before that can happen. Thus, we need not fear rapid intensification of a subtropical storm. Transition to a tropical storm typically takes one to three days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 94L. Image credit: NOAA.

The storm is affecting a wide area of ocean from South Carolina to Virginia. The Diamond Shoals buoy near Cape Hatteras reported 14 foot waves and sustained winds of 40 mph at 2:50 pm EDT. The highest waves, though, have been up near the Virginia/North Carolina border, where the Virginia Beach buoy measured 17 foot seas at 7:50 am EDT. Winds should increase to 40-50 mph along the coast of North Carolina tonight through Thursday as the storm approaches shore. This unnamed storm will affect North Carolina like a tropical storm would. Expect tide levels of 3-6 feet above normal along the coast, and rain amounts of 2-3 inches. Cape Hatteras, NC radar shows a modest but expanding area of rain off the coast. Wind shear is currently 20-30 knots over the low, and is expected to remain at that level for the next two days. Water temperatures are about 27°C under the storm, and will cool to 26°C as 94L approaches the coast. No significant strengthening is likely before landfall. Landfall will occur between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, on the North Carolina coast between the Outer Banks and the South Carolina border. The exact landfall point is unimportant, since 94L's highest winds extend over a broad area. Most of coastal North Carolina will be impacted by this storm's highest winds. The Hurricane Hunters just arrived at the storm, so we'll have a good idea of 94L's winds by 7 pm EDT.

Dominican Republic disturbance 93L
Tropical disturbance 93L is re-organizing over the waters just north of the Dominican Republic. Visible satellite loops show heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing, but the the system has no well-defined center yet. Several surface swirls are competing to become the center of circulation 93L will consolidate around. NHC is giving 93L a moderate (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, but I believe it is high (>50%). Pressures at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic remain the lowest they've been for the week--1006 mb. I expect 93L will spread rains of 2-4 inches to northern Haiti, the northern Dominican Republic, western Puerto Rico, and the Turks and Caicos Islands today through Thursday.

The forecast
Wind shear remains near 15-20 knots, which is marginal for development. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 15-25 knots for the remainder of the week. The computer models take 93L northwards to a landfall in New England or Nova Scotia on Saturday or Sunday, and I doubt the storm would hit as anything stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm. The storm is too disorganized at present, and there is too much shear in the forecast to allow 93L to become a hurricane.

Links to follow
Cape Hatteras, NC weather

The Hurricane Ike, "Presslord will wear a dress challenge" begins
A huge thanks go to everyone who has contributed to the portlight.org charity! We raised enough dough to send another truck with relief supplies to Winnie and Bridge City, Texas, where traditional relief efforts have fallen short. Wunderground member Presslord (AKA Paul Timmons, Jr.), who is coordinating this effort, has announced that if we raise an additional $10,000 mark, he will pose in a dress for our wunderphoto gallery. I know I personally will be contributing to help decorate our wunderphoto gallery (but more so to help out the people of Winnie and Bridge City!)

The latest from Presslord:

Attention all Hands!!!!!!!!!!!!

As of this point we have raised just over $22,000.00 for our Ike relief efforts...and we are spending it as fast as it comes in...will break it down in a few days.

Patrap is on the scene and Icepilot is on the way with a load....stormjunkie and FLDART are gonna do some needs assessment today and head back to regroup for the next round.

I flew my wife home from Houston last night...her flight landed at 10:40P...we were up until past 5A this morning...she had much to say...lots of tears...some of joy...some of frustration...but suffice it to say: the "Forgotten People" we set out to help directly are far better shape because of what y'all made possible.


Figure 2. doorless Winnie-Stowell Firehouse. FEMA informed them it would be six months before they would get new doors. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

I'll have an update Thursday.

Jeff Masters
Lluvias torrenciales en Arroyo, PR
Lluvias torrenciales en Arroyo, PR
Inundaciones en Arroyo, Puerto Rico debido a los fuertes aguaceros provocados por una fuerte onda tropical entre el 21 y 22 de Septiembre de 2008.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting IKE:


These 2 systems are teasing, tropically ....like kissing your sister....


I do think one will step up and be Kyle, but I'm yet to be convinced that both will turn out to be tropical cyclones.

So in this way, it'd be like kissing your brother..?

Still thinking Laura has yet to arrive.

We shall see.
502. MahFL
94L went orange on the NHC website.
Good morning. Just had a home struck by lightning in Boiling Spring Lakes across the Cape Fear from Wilmington. I saw names this morning I had not seen in a while(usually lurking). How many on this am from se NC and ne SC? just courious while we flap in the breeze.
I'm here on Long Island and I'm looking at the Water Vapor Loop and it looks like there is a ton of moisture over the Atlantic heading up towards southern New England
Quoting fire16:
Good morning. Just had a home struck by lightning in Boiling Spring Lakes across the Cape Fear from Wilmington. I saw names this morning I had not seen in a while(usually lurking). How many on this am from se NC and ne SC? just courious while we flap in the breeze.

North Carolina Here, I am flapping with you lol
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Has anyone noticed the cold front band thing (not sure its a real cold front) connecting 94l to 93l now. It's slowly growing a bigger link. Just as soon as it formed 94l started getting more convection. I also wonder if 93 l might not follow its flow. Up and around toward the east coast south of where the models are saying. Maybe Virginia Delaware New jersey. That area.
That cold front was "moving in" for 2 days. Here in Daytona, since Tuesday night we had decent winds with some pretty healthy gusts and then this morning FALL came in and the wind and humidity was Poof.
I think 94 is not going to be named. Still showing conection to its front, has a dry slot, definatley extratropical still and within the next 12 hrs its coc will be over or close to land. Maybe a post season upgrade but not now.

93 is going to be Kyle once it moves into the lower shear environment and can fully wrap its convection. I say be 4pm we see Kyle out of 93.
Quoting MissNadia:
Hurricane 10
Good morning to Sneads Ferry..Shrimp Capital of the Old North State

good morning to u 2
wow the tide is already really high
cant wait to see whats happens with the next high tide
Quoting IKE:
My low was 54.7 degrees.

Currently 57 and sunny in Defuniak Springs,FL. where we're getting our 7th traffic light!


All this talk about cool weather in FL, I am jealous.

West Palm Beach
72.9 °F / 22.7 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 95%
Dew Point: 71 °F / 22 °C
Wind: 2.0 mph / 3 km/h from the North
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph / 8 km/h
Pressure: 29.89 in / 1012.1 hPa (Rising)
Fire16--lived in BSL for several years---been here on Pleasure Island/Carolina Beach since 92.

We had some heavy thunder on this side about an hour ago.
Hi, Addicted lurker/rarely post but I'm rather confused about something. I'm on the VA Middle Peninsula around the bend in the road from salt marshes. All our weather forecasts say the high tides and winds will fade off late this afternoon/evening. How can that be if 94L is still developing and hasn't even come inland yet? Seems to me our conditions would be getting worse, not better. And I can't find maps/tracks/models for this thing anywhere. ???
93 is a depression. There is the naked circulation.
Quoting fire16:
Good morning. Just had a home struck by lightning in Boiling Spring Lakes across the Cape Fear from Wilmington. I saw names this morning I had not seen in a while(usually lurking). How many on this am from se NC and ne SC? just courious while we flap in the breeze.

If you haven't done so go to Zoomiami's blog. He has many bloggers on a google earth map. Send him an email where you are and he'll put you on it. It's pretty cool.
Northern NC here...inland a little bit..Edgecombe County...Tarboro area.
495 MIKATNIGHT
Milk gravy with pepper...Homemade biscuts!
Dvorak T#'s
25/0645 UTC 32.1N 76.2W ST2.5 94L
25/0645 UTC 22.2N 69.0W T1.5/1.5 93L
Welcome back Ike you have been missed! Is the strip at 69/22.5? Is not as easy to see as those dances Fay was doing so just want to make sure I am getting it.

Thanks and very glad to see you back. StormW, Orca, Kman, Tampa all are awesome teachers but I miss your added comical insights ;-)
493 Everette721

Correct on both counts...I love to eat at both!
Looking at the surge models and it looks like the stations have chicken pox with all the red I am seeing LOL.

Most tides should be running 1.5 to 3 feet above. At least its going to be for a single cycle.
wind advisory, heavy rain and wind and schools here only have a 1 hour delay...
Engine 2, thanks for the comments. I do see the change in shear, I guess what I'm hemming and hawing about is I think 93l will track east of this am's models from here on out. The area of influence by 94l seems to be growing and I see this as nudging 93l east.. and into maybe a fish storm.
Quoting MissNadia:
495 MIKATNIGHT
Milk gravy with pepper...Homemade biscuts!

Ok, now you're just being cruel. Mmmmmmm...milk gravy...homemade biscuits...(Homer Simpson sounds)...
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AS A 1005 MB LOW IS
JUST TO THE NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N69W MOVING
NORTHWARD NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BRIEFLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED BY THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
65W-68W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW
ATLC FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 61W-70W INCLUDING ISLANDS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

------------

They re-issued the TWD. 93L Might not ever get classified. NHC says it only has a small window.
Me to Nadia! I love to visit all those authenic seafood restaurants when I go to the beach. Especially the ones right on beach where you can walk out on the pier after you eat. That's why I love NC beaches so much.

Hope everything is fine down that way...Really windy here in Wilson (work) and down right nippy.
Hey, Cane Whisperer...
Fall's here.
You can see it.
You can smell it.
You just can't quite feel it yet.
Supposed to get down to 70 tonight though!
Brrrrrr.
526. IKE
Quoting markymark1973:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AS A 1005 MB LOW IS
JUST TO THE NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N69W MOVING
NORTHWARD NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BRIEFLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED BY THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
65W-68W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW
ATLC FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 61W-70W INCLUDING ISLANDS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

------------

They re-issued the TWD. 93L Might not ever get classified. NHC says it only has a small window.


30...then 40 knots of shear to it's north. Look at the GOM...up to 80 knots of shear..plus, lows in the 50's...and another front next week...

Good Morning everyone,

Here in wilmington, business as usual, no schools closing, business openings but yet it looks like the bottom has dropped out of the sky with the winds too. It looks like the officials are downplaying this event...
This is a good image that shows both storms...it seems to me that they just HAVE to be having some kind of impact on each other.

Link
Good Morning - been cranking since 4:30 AM LOL, Whew! Incredible sunrise run this AM - 69 degrees and no humidity - talk about knocking time off my splits -- Zoom. Check the surf report and got conflicting information. Buddy in St. Pete says there are some longboard waves, MSW models say nada.....going to sneak a drive by to peek "dear, jumping out for milk & bread" LOL (I work w/spouse)and of course the board is in the car) LOL Hoping it says cool all day -- should be a blast working out the horses this afternoon.
Morning surfmom :)

IIIIIMMMMMMM BBBBBAAAAAACCCCKKKK
Morning MissNadia - seems like you have weather!! I have a cam link to Follys Beach(?) Is that your area? Just wanted to check waves - see how it cleans up in the next day or so....never surfed your beaches
schools are closed here in eastern nc in carteret and craven counties
Just stepped outside here in NW FL. I do declare storm season over for the northern Gulf coast finally
524 EVERETTE

We will be O.K. until the wind starts to come off the ocean.
Perhaps, we'll have an early end to the season which would be nice. Unless all that shear around is expected to drop. Beautiful morning here in Melbourne, blue skies, no wind and low 70's - unusual for September. We don't usually see these temps until late October and it is so welcomed.
Good Morning Bonedog!!!! Needless to say - very busy surf season for me this year...... my favorite so far would have to be Dolly..... Gustave was OK, Ike was venomous...... nice to have the five days of waves - but he couldn't even do that nice --he brought pain everywhere he went... here his waves were so loaded with stinging Jellies and sea nettles -- that every wave of pleasure was filled with torturous stings
Just a reminder to all that the South Florida Water Mangement District (SFWMD) has an excellent satellite loop page, which also shows NHC forecast path (as soon as there is one). They also have a models page for all current storms. Sat Link: Link
sorry to hear surfmom :(

sad to say the board didn't get wet this year :(

just been way too busy
531 Surfmom

Folly's beach is in S.C. very close to Presslord.
You wouldn't want to surf here today..8 to 10 and very steep and close together!
Hey,Bonedog,welcome back!!!!Great to see you,missed you last winter during nor'easter season
NE whats up !!!

Yea I missed it too. Looks like I am back though. As long as I keep IT from snooping LOL
This is my first year on WU.

So there will be chatting all winter long??

Will it still be under the tropical section?
Quoting conchygirl:
Perhaps, we'll have an early end to the season which would be nice. Unless all that shear around is expected to drop. Beautiful morning here in Melbourne, blue skies, no wind and low 70's - unusual for September. We don't usually see these temps until late October and it is so welcomed.
Your welcome the cool air is because I had to buy a new AC ( I was trying to make it to Nov so maybe it would be cheaper but no luck) A week later we got 60's in the morning lol... But supposed to go back up to 80s today but stay dry which makes it at least bearable.
How long is this supposed to last withthe cooler and no humidity? Supposed to go tent camping this weekend if gonna be like today I'm in but if it is going back humid and hot gonna enjoy my new AC and tell the kid to pitch the tent in his room lol
Quoting Bonedog:
NE whats up !!!

Yea I missed it too. Looks like I am back though. As long as I keep IT from snooping LOL
IT , the story of our lives.
speaking of winter better be ready ;)
Everette we chat all winter long. Usually a few folks set up winter related blogs but sometimes we use Dr. Master's blog.

During the winter check out sullivanweather's blog, hopefully mine, and theres another one I can't remeber off the top of my head.
well,bone,your timing is pretty good,interesting next few days.
Quoting Surfmom: "... here his waves were so loaded with stinging Jellies and sea nettles -- that every wave of pleasure was filled with torturous stings"


Local news (WPB, FL) yesterday reported (with video proof) that Lion Fish are offshore of Boynton Beach. No natural preditors and highly venomous, they can cause death in some cases. Watch out!
Quoting IKE:


...

Hey Ike you got me on ignore? :*-( Question for you #517
LOL Ne. Couldn't have timed it any better.
Quoting Bonedog:
speaking of winter better be ready ;)


Yeh,I know have seen a few winter predictions,and if they come true,could be interesting.
Thanks Bone. I will check them out.

Im hoping we get some snow this year in NC. It has been a while.
air360

pamlico as well.
539Miss Nadia - there was a very big surf contest ESM to be held this week- Cape Hatteras (?) - guess that got canceled...and your right 8-10ftrs. Heck no, that'll be nice when it cleans-up for the big boys.
so what happened to all the gloom and doom about hurricanes coming?
Yea Ne I been seeing them too. Have my own few prediction indicators and all are pointing at least to a cold winter, just have to see where the storms track. I think it will make up for the past few years around here.
Quoting Everette721:
This is my first year on WU.

So there will be chatting all winter long??

Will it still be under the tropical section?
Actually it's really nice in the winter... the real junkies continue to meet and discuss -- It's great for me, as I get a heads-up as to when the cold fronts are making their way to SWFL -- Cold fronts = windswell, which isn't as nice as hurricane groundswell -- but... I'll take it.
Quoting surfmom:
539Miss Nadia - there was a very big surf contest ESM to be held this week- Cape Hatteras (?) - guess that got canceled...and your right 8-10ftrs. Heck no, that'll be nice when it cleans-up for the big boys.
Hey Mom ... someone said it got moved to a diffrent beach but might be suspended there too....
I thought Dr Masters did a new Blog everyday. What time does he usually update? thanks
And everyone knows how we flip out over snow here....hehe. I love the stuff.
Morning all :)
Complete Update
All Systems ... Atlantic
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Models
Caribbean System 93L ... with Cloud Cover
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Carols System 94L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
CMC & ... The Carols
CMC & ... NY City/Maine
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Caribbean Part Duex
teck he updates in the morning usually 9ish but all depends on how long it is. He could be typing one up as we blog
Things have definitely gone down hill here in New Bern. Blowin pretty good and raining. Just plain nasty out. Shoulda stayed in bed.
Quoting teckchick:
I thought Dr Masters did a new Blog everyday. What time does he usually update? thanks
Theres no set time,but I would expect something between now and 11,probably sooner.
Miklatnight -- HOLY CRAP!!!!! that does not please me one bit. my young son (mr spearfisherman) was telling me about these Lionfish getting out of control. I believe he said that if you went to the Bahamas, they were encouraging spearfisherman to shoot them. I am on the GOMEX, but I do on rare occasion jump to the other coast....thanks for cluing me in -- better smart then not
Quoting Bonedog:
teck he updates in the morning usually 9ish but all depends on how long it is. He could be typing one up as we blog

Thanks bone. I am sitting here with all this wind and rain, wondering if it is too late for 94 to get named.
Morning Orca
I hate to sound like a "dummy" but what happened to the tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa last week??

I had my shutters put up when it looked like Hannah might hit the East coast of Florida, and they are still up.

Is there any way of saying with reasonable certainty that I can risk having them taken down now?? I hate living in a dungeon, but I can't afford the cost of having them taken down and then having to to pay to have them put back up.
teck don't think you'll see a name. Still too extratropical in nature.
Looking at the satellite loops this morning,the east coast storm looks like its trying to wrap convection around the center again,and I see 93l got its swirl going again,but with convection off to the e and ne.93 is going to have tough time with the strong circulation from the east coast storm.
Happy surfing surfmom. Never could get the hang of it...although I do like to ride the waves in on my stomach....haha..usually I get beat around though..

How come when I try and quote someone it does not show up? I can never get it to work.
Un there are no garuntees BUT usually after the first cold fronts start dropping into central florida the risk diminishes.

But again BUT there is no garuntees when it comes to Mother Nature
hey surfmom,going to sign my lease this mornoing,I'm wondering if I may have a front seat for some TC action in the gulf in 5-10 days?????,There forcasting RECORD low temps for sarasota tonight,check TWC local forcast,I don't remember us getting cool fronts(thats right cool,not cold,by the time they get down here!!!),usually second week october.Weeee'll take it ASAP though,the fall is our reward for sweating all summer long,definatly my favorite time of the year!!!...
Quoting NEwxguy:
Looking at the satellite loops this morning,the east coast storm looks like its trying to wrap convection around the center again,and I see 93l got its swirl going again,but with convection off to the e and ne.93 is going to have tough time with the strong circulation from the east coast storm.


Ok I am confused now..are there 2 storms of NC coast?
Quoting NEwxguy:
Looking at the satellite loops this morning,the east coast storm looks like its trying to wrap convection around the center again,and I see 93l got its swirl going again,but with convection off to the e and ne.93 is going to have tough time with the strong circulation from the east coast storm.
Looks like a very wet weekend for us
94 is not on the tropical page what's up with that?
Conditions at 41013 as of
(8:50 am EDT)
1250 GMT on 09/25/2008:

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 40.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 52.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 14.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.61 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 68.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 76.8 °F
Quoting Bonedog:
Morning Orca


Morning :)
BTW, fixed the HH pictures... both systems have one on task
hehe no teck 94 is the one off the NC coast 93 is north of hispanola heading northbound
Quoting TheMom:
94 is not on the tropical page what's up with that?

I have been wondering that myself, guess because it is not tropical or subtropical????
sorry Everette - HATE the snow. Left the north many years...hmmm, now many, many years ago and I do not, have not ever missed the winter, the cold or snow. Actually I never went back North again. Under 55 degrees and I am miserable -- the only thing I sort of miss are BIG TREES
Quoting teckchick:

I have been wondering that myself, guess because it is not tropical or subtropical????
Thanks guess we have to find the extratropical page :-)
Quoting Bonedog:
hehe no teck 94 is the one off the NC coast 93 is north of hispanola heading northbound

I knew that LOL, just wondered if there was something I missed LOL. Must be my eyes this morning..the pounding rain could be causing my brain to wiggle :)
Quoting teckchick:


Ok I am confused now..are there 2 storms of NC coast?

theres one extratropical system off NC and then theres tropical 93l north of DR and puerto rico
Quoting TheMom:
Thanks guess we have to find the extratropical page :-)


NHC doesn't name extratropical storms:

Subtropical storms get named by NHC if they are judged to be sufficiently tropical in nature.
morning!
Hows everything? Whats happening with our E. coast systems? Whats it with these storms this year and their inability to make up their minds?!

Bonedog..so good to have you back! Good thing, with the timing, too, because Sullivanweather wont be around for the next two weeks...we're going to need your imput!
Quoting NEwxguy:

theres one extratropical system off NC and then theres tropical 93l north of DR and puerto rico


There is another one coming also
Quoting Engine2:
Looks like a very wet weekend for us


Yeh,when you look at the IR loops,there is a ton of convection,a conveyor belt of moisture coming up from the tropic,could be very wet starting tonight.
Quoting Orcasystems:


There is another one coming also


where,when?I missed that.
New Bern, North Carolina (Airport)
Updated: 21 min 28 sec ago
66 °F / 19 °C
Rain Mist
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 64 °F / 18 °C
Wind: 20 mph / 32 km/h / 8.7 m/s from the NNE
Wind Gust: 40 mph / 65 km/h / 18.0 m/s
Pressure: 29.91 in / 1013 hPa (Falling)

Quoting NEwxguy:


where,when?I missed that.


My Blog

CMC & ... The Carols
CMC & ... NY City/Maine
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Caribbean Part Duex
HOORAY!!! My power is restored as of 6pm last night! Now I can be back in the WU game, lol. So much left to do, though.

Thanks again for all prayers sent our way. Keep them coming.

Dr. M's picture above looks exactly like our little town's VFD. Lost 5 of our 6 bay doors and part of its roof. Very hard for a small community VFD to recover from this. All in all, our town has really pulled together to help one another out. Bad sometimes brings out the good. Now if I could only hear from my insurance adjuster.....

Quoting surfmom:
Miklatnight -- HOLY CRAP!!!!! that does not please me one bit. my young son (mr spearfisherman) was telling me about these Lionfish getting out of control. I believe he said that if you went to the Bahamas, they were encouraging spearfisherman to shoot them. I am on the GOMEX, but I do on rare occasion jump to the other coast....thanks for cluing me in -- better smart then not



there slowly making there way thru the straits and they have already have been reported in our area,not good,some dumb A$$es just don't get it(all you have to do is take the fish you don't wan't to a local fish/pet store and they'll usually take them...
so...is 94 the nor'easter turned extratropical trying to go subtropical? They say that women are fickle lol
Hey Lake!! Glad to be back. I will share my input as much as I can :)

Ne the tropic conveyor is really going to get cranking in the next day, around nightfall here midnight up around there probably.

Keep an eye towards 93, not for formation but track, we could see it curve more westward due to fujiwara.
My 19 year old daughter...a sophmore in college...is in charge of wardrobe, hair, accessories (including, as she put it, "significant cleavage"), and make-up.....

y'all cough it up....

www.portlight.org
Quoting mikatnight:
Quoting Surfmom: "... here his waves were so loaded with stinging Jellies and sea nettles -- that every wave of pleasure was filled with torturous stings"


Local news (WPB, FL) yesterday reported (with video proof) that Lion Fish are offshore of Boynton Beach. No natural preditors and highly venomous, they can cause death in some cases. Watch out!


The concern is very high with this report. Not only with the fact that it is deadly but, the lion fish can actually destroy the entire ecosystem including coral reefs. The ecosystem here is not set up to handle them, DAMN PEOPLE AND THEIR PETS.
598. IKE
Quoting TheMom:
Welcome back Ike you have been missed! Is the strip at 69/22.5? Is not as easy to see as those dances Fay was doing so just want to make sure I am getting it.

Thanks and very glad to see you back. StormW, Orca, Kman, Tampa all are awesome teachers but I miss your added comical insights ;-)



Yeah...you're about correct on those coordinates....I'm around...just someday's don't post much....lurking.
Stillwaiting - Yeaa, the cool weather was quite a surprise this AM -- Knocked off a 30-45 seconds a mile when I ran. I'm wondering about that gulf situation --still a little soon to get excited...and my little voice, after seeing IKE, keeps telling me to keep my mouth shut LOL. But I would love to have another run of surf days b/4 the wetsuit has to get put on. Good Luck signing your lease -- do you have a safe spot off the Key if the Gulf gets nasty? Spouse wants to know if I can trade you mango's & fresh eggs in exchange for launching my Kayak off your turf......he's tired of my whine
Quoting rainraingoaway:
HOORAY!!! My power is restored as of 6pm last night! Now I can be back in the WU game, lol. So much left to do, though.

Thanks again for all prayers sent our way. Keep them coming.

Dr. M's picture above looks exactly like our little town's VFD. Lost 5 of our 6 bay doors and part of its roof. Very hard for a small community VFD to recover from this. All in all, our town has really pulled together to help one another out. Bad sometimes brings out the good. Now if I could only hear from my insurance adjuster.....

Congrats!! VFD are such important resources and you all are in our thoughts and have tons of thanks for what you are doing for your community!
Quoting Orcasystems:


There is another one coming also


Bearer of good news and Halos....LOL
602. IKE
Quoting fldude99:
Just stepped outside here in NW FL. I do declare storm season over for the northern Gulf coast finally


I've been thinking that too...the window is closing for this area.
Quoting Everette721:
Happy surfing surfmom. Never could get the hang of it...although I do like to ride the waves in on my stomach....haha..usually I get beat around though..

How come when I try and quote someone it does not show up? I can never get it to work.


You have to press quote, if it doesn't show up, find the quote and press it again. Always works the second time.
Quoting Bonedog:
Hey Lake!! Glad to be back. I will share my input as much as I can :)

Ne the tropic conveyor is really going to get cranking in the next day, around nightfall here midnight up around there probably.

Keep an eye towards 93, not for formation but track, we could see it curve more westward due to fujiwara.


yeh,I'm kind of thinking it has a good chance of coming up over me here in the eastern part.
Quoting surfmom:


Bearer of good news and Halos....LOL


Well.. I could have said there is actually two coming :)
(which btw there is)
all we need is Floodman to show up and its back to the good ole' days.. LOL
IKE Thanks I think you all might actually have taught this age addled mind how to see things a little bit. :-)

PRESSOH buddy your daughter is gonna have fun! Payday donation is only 4 days away so find a pretty pair of Pumps! :-)
Yea NE looks like you in the sights for it. Just hope it scoots east of you. wouldn't be fun on that NE side
Quoting surfmom:
Stillwaiting - Yeaa, the cool weather was quite a surprise this AM -- Knocked off a 30-45 seconds a mile when I ran. I'm wondering about that gulf situation --still a little soon to get excited...and my little voice, after seeing IKE, keeps telling me to keep my mouth shut LOL. But I would love to have another run of surf days b/4 the wetsuit has to get put on. Good Luck signing your lease -- do you have a safe spot off the Key if the Gulf gets nasty? Spouse wants to know if I can trade you mango's & fresh eggs in exchange for launching my Kayak off your turf......he's tired of my whine



your more than welcome to launch/park from my spot no problem!!!,my dad has a "safe house" for an evacuation situation.He lives near the interstate off clark in Palmer ranch......BBL gonna go sign my lease now!!!!
LOL Lake! It would be :)
I will say it feels like I haven't left though :)
Presslord - this new image is going to disorient me somewhat.......

nevertheless, if I ride waves of the 'cane, I send some "cha-ching" to www.portlight.org Surfing waves I/we get to play -- so it's nice to send a little pay to help those who have suffered from the wrath of IKE

Direct Donations to People in Need
602. IKE

It was 60 here on the coast in PCB this morning. Brrrrrr.
Geeze -- looks like I'm going to end up being a major sponsor to portlight - based on these potential waves...and I think the MJO is getting ready to rock and roll as well.
Quoting mikatnight:


You have to press quote, if it doesn't show up, find the quote and press it again. Always works the second time.


Thanks. It is working now.
Someone was asking about SHUTTERS, can't find the entry now, but please be careful that when leaving shutters up for an extended period, do not block your fire-escape routes!
this looks neat


Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


Well.. I could have said there is actually two coming :)
(which btw there is)
With news like that I might have to stop holding back the girls and let them get cha ;-) Ohy
What would it take for 94L to close its center and shut off all that dry air it is sucking in?
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
For those interested in reading up on the South Florida Lion Fish Invasion. It is a VERY serious problem and should be spread like wildfire to everyone you know, THEY CAN KILL YOU. Especially unsuspecting children who see a pretty fish.
We dove Bahamas last year and they are everywhere destroying the reefs and eatting all the native fish, etc. We did our part in an attempt to eradicate them - the old speargun works well. But they are taking over.
Quoting keywestbrat:
this looks neat


Link
That's a lot of Dry air packing into 94 and it really looks more like if 93 moves north it would have to interact with 94 or be pushed out to sea.
wow that article on the lionfish is serious. why cant people be smart enough to properly dispose of animals and plants that are not native species?
That's an incredible amount of dry air ingested by 94L. Gotta wonder if it wasn't bone dry air over the SE what it could have become.
HH from 93L appears to be changing task to 94L



Click to enlarge
HH and Buoy data 94L



Click to enlarge
Quoting Bonedog:
wow that article on the lionfish is serious. why cant people be smart enough to properly dispose of animals and plants that are not native species?


It's not just lionfish; pythons are eating alligators in the everglades, monitors have taken over an island in SW Fla...I even had an African Nile Monitor walk right into my porch!
Quoting TheMom:
With news like that I might have to stop holding back the girls and let them get cha ;-) Ohy


So many ways to respond... Damn Halo
Quoting Cotillion:
I always put Laura down as a Gulf storm. Looking like - thankfully - I'll be wrong. :).

Did say though, it's either a weak TS, or a monster. Again, thankfully looking to be the former at this rate...

People have suffered enough already this year.
if it even gets to be laura
Quoting Bonedog:
wow that article on the lionfish is serious. why cant people be smart enough to properly dispose of animals and plants that are not native species?


Ignorance. They are still trying to get rid of the 20+ foot boas that took over the everglades. Not to mention the iguanas, where does it end?

Sorry to post off topic but, it is a serious problem with the lion fish and there are a lot of Floridians that come here.
At my office in Wilmington, NC:

It's been windy all morning, power flickering on and off. We have a break in the rain right now, but more is coming.
Quoting largeeyes:
That's an incredible amount of dry air ingested by 94L. Gotta wonder if it wasn't bone dry air over the SE what it could have become.


It looks like it's trying to fix that by stealing moisture from 93l.
Quoting mikatnight:


It's not just lionfish; pythons are eating alligators in the everglades, monitors have taken over an island in SW Fla...I even had an African Nile Monitor walk right into my porch!


And you ask why I don't go to Florida on Vacation.. Duhhh
Quoting mikatnight:


It's not just lionfish; pythons are eating alligators in the everglades, monitors have taken over an island in SW Fla...I even had an African Nile Monitor walk right into my porch!
and we have more iguana's than you can poke a stick at.
Quoting mikatnight:


It's not just lionfish; pythons are eating alligators in the everglades, monitors have taken over an island in SW Fla...I even had an African Nile Monitor walk right into my porch!


Globalization...its not just for humans anymore...
Quoting Bonedog:
wow that article on the lionfish is serious. why cant people be smart enough to properly dispose of animals and plants that are not native species?
Driving 95 north of Miami Gila Monster hanging on the side of the road it is just sad this poor animal dumped off by someone that took on a responsiblity they did not plan for long term and now it will become a unwelcome preditor of species that it should not be there to eat...
Our local meteorologist here in Orlando are saying that a low is supose to develop over the BOC and move towards Florida by monday or tuesday. They do not know if it will be tropcial or not but its suppose to bring stormy conditions.
Presslord, another idea.... does Portlight have a logo yet? I was scribbling last night, trying different ideas out and then I thought that might be another fun project....down the road when there is not 'cane season.... have a logo contest .... (pls excuse the ditz...but what exactly is a portlight -- the light on a dock/port, a light on the port side of the boat ...just curious)
mik its amazing how stupid people are.

Quoting tropicallydepressed:


Wow, you are incredibly annoying with your surfer dude "talk"...write like a normal person please.

and your just annoying.. bye
hello,
I'm sure someone has already linked this but...check out these after Ike photos from noaa.govLink

In this particular page you can really detect major surge damage. Click on the pic to the left -let it load- then scroll down to see the full pic. You can also back track to look at other area photos

KeyWestwx
#630 that was rude, if you don't want to read it, don't.

25/1145 UTC 22.6N 68.5W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
25/1200 UTC 11.9N 37.9W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean


jo
Quoting Orcasystems:


So many ways to respond... Damn Halo
ROTFLSHIPMP! You are a hot mess Orca lol.. But we love ya
500-Ike-OMG, seven traffic signals! DeFuniak Springs is now an offical metropolis!! LOL, you still have the lake, the train station, the corner cafe, and the feed store. When traffic gets you down, you can still have lunch at the community table with the home folks!! We still miss that cafe!
Hey orca, am I seeing correctly one those models taking 93L to the SE coast?
639. tea3781 1:44 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Our local meteorologist here in Orlando are saying that a low is supose to develop over the BOC and move towards Florida by monday or tuesday. They do not know if it will be tropcial or not but its suppose to bring stormy conditions.


Local met here in Tampa didn't say a low was suppose to form but did say that it is an area that has his eye. Said that unsettled weather has persisted down there for a week.

blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting HurricaneKing:


It looks like it's trying to fix that by stealing moisture from 93l.
So the dominate storm would then be 94 instead of 93right? Would that reverse the toss to out to sea on 93 rather than into the Northeast?
We have iguana's everywhere in Key West- They are becoming a hugh invasive problem for indigenous flora and fauna. Just 10 years ago they were hardly seen
But you can even see a dry area between the "connection" of 93 and 94
Quoting Everette721:
Hey orca, am I seeing correctly one those models taking 93L to the SE coast?

SE Coast of what?
Quoting keywestbrat:
and we have more iguana's than you can poke a stick at.
KEY!!!! Stop poking the iguana's with sticks Shhsss!
Are Kyle and Laura close enough to dance? (Fujiwhari)
a porlight is to a private vessel what a porthole is to a ship....it let's in air and light.....
TheMom is 94 is the dominant it would actually pull 93 twords the northeast around its perifery. The fujiwara (sp) effect at its finest
Refreshed
All Systems ... Atlantic
New York 93L ... complete with Models
New York 93L ... with Cloud Cover
New York 93L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Carols System 94L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
CMC & ... The Carols
CMC & ... NY City/Maine
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Caribbean Part Duex
Quoting conchygirl:
We dove Bahamas last year and they are everywhere destroying the reefs and eatting all the native fish, etc. We did our part in an attempt to eradicate them - the old speargun works well. But they are taking over.
It's a shame People are so Ignorant as to just dump the fish into the atlantic kinda like the person who dumped an aligator in the Chicago river up here. the gator had grown to four feet . Residents were complaining and took a while to catch him good thing they did he would have died from the cold this winter. He now has a home in the Zoo
Quoting presslord:
a porlight is to a private vessel what a porthole is to a ship....it let's in air and light.....


Sort of like the sunroof on a Minivan, that opens.
Quoting tropicallydepressed:


Wow, you are incredibly annoying with your surfer dude "talk"...write like a normal person please.


Ya might want to change your 'handle' to mentallydepressed. Lighten up dude! LOL
Quoting Bonedog:
TheMom is 94 is the dominant it would actually pull 93 twords the northeast around its perifery. The fujiwara (sp) effect at its finest
Thanks I guess I was thinking it would go the oppisite way because before it seemed that 93 was going to be east of 94 and be the dominate... I don't know I'm confusing myself again Thanks for help every morsal helps us understand more.
thanks for the update Orca
Quoting TheMom:
KEY!!!! Stop poking the iguana's with sticks Shhsss!
figure of speach mom LOL

Time:
13:48:30Z
Coordinates:
32.2333N 76.75W
Acft. Static Air Press:
973.3 mb (~ 28.74 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
183 meters (~ 600 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
994.0 mb (~ 29.35 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 220° at 1 knots (From the SW at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp:
22.3°C (~ 72.1°F)
Dew Pt:
21.0°C (~ 69.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
3 knots (~ 3.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Basically TheMom what would happen is as 93 comes around the eastern edge of 94 94s northeastern winds would steer the system(93) back around to the west
Quoting Orcasystems:

SE Coast of what?


The US
93l will liely develop today as with 94l it looks like an STS
Quoting TheMom:
KEY!!!! Stop poking the iguana's with sticks Shhsss!


No, no! Just make sure there's a hardened sharp point on that stick.

Ummm, iguana tail; the other white meat! (yummy!)
class='blogquote'>Quoting TheMom:
KEY!!!! Stop poking the iguana's with sticks Shhsss!

Iguana tail tastes like chicken!!! :^P
Second HH almost at 94L



Click to enlarge
Quoting 2ifbyC:


No, no! Just make sure there's a hardened sharp point on that stick.

Ummm, iguana tail; the other white meat! (yummy!)


Now if we could just get people to start eating pythons, lion fish, and nile monitors...
Well there was Australian Pines, Melaleuca, Brazilian Pepper, and water hyacinths before the snakes, fishes, monkeys, caymans and armadillo's.. this has been going on for a long time.

It DOES look like 94l is stealing moisture from 93l.
Quoting Everette721:


The US


I don't see a single model picking that track
Coming down in sideways sheets now here in Wilson, NC. Really gusty winds...strongest so far.
Quoting Bonedog:
Basically TheMom what would happen is as 93 comes around the eastern edge of 94 94s northeastern winds would steer the system(93) back around to the west
Thanks that helps the "tail" of 94 was looking like it would block 93 to the untrained like me so I greatly appreciate the info.
Mik there ya go I can see it now..

Invasives- the down home cooking of the critters noone wants.

LOL

Quoting KeyWestwx:
class='blogquote'>Quoting TheMom:
KEY!!!! Stop poking the iguana's with sticks Shhsss!


Iguana tail tastes like chicken!!! :^P
got a recipe for that :)
94L has a pressure of 994mb. That ought to do it.
SFWMD models page:
Link
Quoting KeyWestwx:
class='blogquote'>Quoting TheMom:
KEY!!!! Stop poking the iguana's with sticks Shhsss!


Iguana tail tastes like chicken!!! :^P
KEYSquared!!!!!! ROTFLSHIPMP!
No problem TheMom glad to help.
Quoting mikatnight:


Now if we could just get people to start eating pythons, lion fish, and nile monitors...


Yeah, because we humans arent an invasive species that is destroying eco-systems around the globe...growing more rapidly by the year, exhausting resources and destroying other species...
Quoting Everette721:
Coming down in sideways sheets now here in Wilson, NC. Really gusty winds...strongest so far.
Yikes Keep dry
geez why doesn't the NGP like me? Has 93 heading straight for me
Quoting Orcasystems:


I don't see a single model picking that track


My bad. I was not paying attention to all the lines on the graphic
Thanks for my vocab word of the day ... smile

www.portlight.org - Direct donations to people in Need -- help those who suffered Ike's wrath
Quoting Bonedog:
geez why doesn't the NGP like me? Has 93 heading straight for me
It's rude like that.
LakeShadow 10:06 AM EDT on September 25, 2008
Quoting mikatnight:


Now if we could just get people to start eating pythons, lion fish, and nile monitors...


Yeah, because we humans arent an invasive species that is destroying eco-systems around the globe...growing more rapidly by the year, exhausting resources and destroying other species...


You are so very right Lake
i guess both hh's are going to investigate 94l, we should plenty of data for 11 am update.
LOL TheMom LOL
Quoting surfmom:
Thanks for my vocab word of the day ... smile


What was it.. I missed it?
hello folks earlier i heard someone say something about a wave heading to cuba and fl was i hearing things
Quoting Everette721:
Coming down in sideways sheets now here in Wilson, NC. Really gusty winds...strongest so far.


Thanks for the updates- it's great to read first hand observations.

*looks like 94L is forming a pin-point eye.. anyone else see that?
Morning all

Posted new pics in my blog. Titles of sets are
Where Bolivar Went
And
Bridge City in Shambles



Do you think 93l will develop it looks organized?
Looks like the coc is exposed to me

Quoting Orcasystems:


What was it.. I missed it?
ahhh Orca... you know the saying "the quick and the dead" LOL
94 looks like its COC became exposed

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 14:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 13:48:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 32°13'N 76°46'W (32.2167N 76.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 154 miles (248 km) to the SSE (154°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the SSW (209°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 306° at 47kts (From the NW at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the SW (214°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 336m (1,102ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 334m (1,096ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:33:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SSW (193°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL WIND IN INVEST 50 KTS SE QUAD 12:56:50Z
Quoting KeyWestwx:


Thanks for the updates- it's great to read first hand observations.

*looks like 94L is forming a pin-point eye.. anyone else see that?


If we could just get the HH's to send a vortex message...
re: 694. StormJunkie

oh wow, thanx for posting this sj...wish i could be with you guys.....just squeezed another $150 out of my co-workers....their nicklels are screaming.....jo
sorry for the double post. still working out the bugs on my end :)
HA...there it is!!!
why does no one ever acknowledge my posts soooo sad
Dvorak T#'s
25/1145 UTC 22.6N 68.5W T2.0/2.0 93L
25/1200 UTC 11.9N 37.9W TOO WEAK INVEST
25/1145 UTC 32.0N 76.5W ST3.0 94L
ocean which posts? I must have missed it
Quoting KeyWestwx:


Thanks for the updates- it's great to read first hand observations.

*looks like 94L is forming a pin-point eye.. anyone else see that?
Can't form any eye until the circulation is closed it's still open, sorry no pinhole eye yet. what you are seeing is the rising Sun reflecting on the cloud tops
According to Dvorak 93L is almost a TS
Quoting fmbill:
HA...there it is!!!
What?
st.3.0 kyle very sooon
Quoting conchygirl:
What?


Sorry. I got excited. The vortex message for 94L. Looks like we'll have Kyle at 11am.
brb off to the tropical rainshower and then work
000
URNT12 KNHC 251410
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/13:48:10Z
B. 32 deg 13 min N
076 deg 46 min W
C. NA
D. 54 kt
E. 209 deg 31 nm
F. 306 deg 47 kt
G. 214 deg 36 nm
H. EXTRAP 994 mb
I. 20 C / 336 m
J. 23 C / 334 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 02GGA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SW QUAD 13:33:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 193 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX FL WIND IN INVEST 50 KTS SE QUAD 12:56:50Z
;
still no Kyle. storm is extratropical still maybe subtropical at the most
Quoting Bonedog:
ocean which posts? I must have missed it
i thought earlier this morning i saw a post saying something about a wave heading to cuba and florida any insight on that
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 336m (1,102ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 334m (1,096ft)

Hello STS Kyle.
Quoting fmbill:


Sorry. I got excited. The vortex message for 94L. Looks like we'll have Kyle at 11am.

see post 699
Morning oceanblue
That wedge of dry air has really messed with 94L today. But it sure is spinning........
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SW QUAD 13:33:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 193 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX FL WIND IN INVEST 50 KTS SE QUAD 12:56:50Z

Looks warm enough near the center.

Quoting Orcasystems:


My Blog

CMC & ... The Carols
CMC & ... NY City/Maine
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Caribbean Part Duex


Thanks for that. I'm looking, lurking, and learning. I appreciate the efforts that you and others make to help others understand.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning oceanblue
good mornin to ya storm
Quoting Orcasystems:

see post 699


Yeah...Seems I'm always late with big news. LOL!
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all

Posted new pics in my blog. Titles of sets are
Where Bolivar Went
And
Bridge City in Shambles



Thanks Storm - you all have done an awesome job.
ocean just looked at the TWD and no mention of a wave in that area

one midway between africa and the leewards

one in the carib extending into venezula

one heading for Nicaragua

one in the BOC
94l earlier didn't have a lot of moisture with all the dry air around,but its really collecting moisture now from the gulf stream and from the tropics,this is going to be a very wet system,better get my pumps ready in my cellar.
wow just read the flight level posts about temp. STS Kyle good morning
728. IKE
93L is exposed...

Quoting fmbill:
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SW QUAD 13:33:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 193 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX FL WIND IN INVEST 50 KTS SE QUAD 12:56:50Z

Looks warm enough near the center.



looks promising....
BTW- Fire Marshal Bill is ,by far, the most disturbing character, EVER!, to hit the TV screens. LOL
Quoting TheMom:
KEYSquared!!!!!! ROTFLSHIPMP!
thats funny the mom, but i must be on his iggy
No way 94L gets named at 11am. It's obviously still extratropical and that last gulp of dry air will prevent it becoming tropical before landfall.
NRL still has it as 94L so I don't think an 11am name.

Even though its warm cored still looks to extratropical to me
oceanblues -

I think that was based on the 00Z and 12Z runs of CMC yesterday developing somthing in BOC/Yucatan at the end of the run.... not doing it any more. I think there was also some other model I had never heard of that did something also.

00Z - Link

12Z - Link
g' morning ike, nice to see you!

re: 93L is exposed...

but it sure is a pretty little swirl there...jo
Thanks conchy

That said, spend that energy on thoughts and prayers for those in Texas.

Also, done should read doing...A long road ahead for the folks out there and we will continue to help as long as we can and as long as they need.

Quoting largeeyes:
No way 94L gets named at 11am. It's obviously still extratropical and that last gulp of dry air will prevent it becoming tropical before landfall.


Tell that to the hurricane hunters. (I admit though it's borderline. Looks still extratropical but they're fining it has a flat to slightly warm core.
Quoting keywestbrat:
thats funny the mom, but i must be on his iggy


Yes Mom- you must be on our iggy.. What the heck does that mean- Teehee

And who you callin a Square??? :)
Quoting StormJunkie:
Thanks conchy

That said, spend that energy on thoughts and prayers for those in Texas.

Also, done should read doing...A long road ahead for the folks out there and we will continue to help as long as we can and as long as they need.

Definitely thoughts and prayers and donations are still so important. Very sad situation.
Quoting IKE:
93L is exposed...



It's been like that most of the morning and it's starting to look a little stretched. Maybe the flow around 94l could kill it after all. Although the gfs has 93l opening up and then closing back off east of nc as 94l dies and the energy is transfered.
frying pan shoals buoy data:

Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
9:50 am NNE ( 19 deg ) 40.2 kts
9:40 am NNE ( 16 deg ) 38.9 kts
9:30 am NNE ( 16 deg ) 40.2 kts
9:20 am NNE ( 15 deg ) 41.4 kts
9:10 am NNE ( 20 deg ) 40.6 kts
9:00 am NNE ( 15 deg ) 39.6 kts
Quoting KeyWestwx:


looks promising....
BTW- Fire Marshal Bill is ,by far, the most disturbing character, EVER!, to hit the TV screens. LOL


Yup...when i was the fire marshal in my community, i had more people tell me about this skit on In Living Color. I never watched the show until my nephew made me sit down to watch it with him. What a hoot!!!
Quoting Bonedog:
ocean just looked at the TWD and no mention of a wave in that area

one midway between africa and the leewards

one in the carib extending into venezula

one heading for Nicaragua

one in the BOC


thank you bonedog off to work now hit everyone up later.....
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
g' morning ike, nice to see you!

re: 93L is exposed...

but it sure is a pretty little swirl there...jo


"What's your name, little swirl, what's your name..."

A remake of an old song?
Quoting NEwxguy:
94l earlier didn't have a lot of moisture with all the dry air around,but its really collecting moisture now from the gulf stream and from the tropics,this is going to be a very wet system,better get my pumps ready in my cellar.


I used to live on Cape Cod- few years ago- and experienced equal amount of wild weather there as I have in the Keys. Check out my photos on this site. So have fun with this storm NEwxguy
btw- i'm a huge Miami Dolphins fan (creeping away from my computer now....)
745. IKE
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
g' morning ike, nice to see you!

re: 93L is exposed...

but it sure is a pretty little swirl there...jo


I'm so nice I looped it for you.

Note: takes a minute to load. Be patient....at least view it after I went to all of this trouble.
Quoting fmbill:


"What's your name, little swirl, what's your name..."

A remake of an old song?


"OUCH" got the tune in my head now- got to admit.......
Is 94L still off shore? or has it come on yet?
000
URNT12 KNHC 251410
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/13:48:10Z
B. 32 deg 13 min N
076 deg 46 min W
C. NA
D. 54 kt
E. 209 deg 31 nm
F. 306 deg 47 kt
G. 214 deg 36 nm
H. EXTRAP 994 mb
I. 20 C / 336 m
J. 23 C / 334 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 02GGA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SW QUAD 13:33:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 193 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX FL WIND IN INVEST 50 KTS SE QUAD 12:56:50Z
;


Today was the first day my newspaper in SRQ published two photographs of damage done by IKE --seems like the "press" figures if they ignore bad/sad new it will go away???? Hard to figure, especially since the surge pictures would serve as good education as to the power of a 'cane --when I run the key now, I look at everything so differently.... NOW and only now do I understand the power and destruction of surge. I didn't see that kind of damamge w/Frances and Jeanne. My decisions to go or stay have been totally revamped by the photos StormJunkie & EmmyRose posted.
Quoting IKE:


I'm so nice I looped it for you.

Note: takes a minute to load. Be patient....at least view it after I went to all of this trouble.


It looks like its getting ready to accelerate north or get stretched into nothingness or both. Also I thing the convection is probably going to shift to the nw side of the storm where it interacts with the front.
Quoting Alockwr21:
Is 94L still off shore? or has it come on yet?


Not supposed to make landfall till tonight or tomorrow morning.
Post 745:

Why does it look to be moving slightly East of North?
convection is starting to pop on the coc of 93L - seems like initial band forming around the circulation center
surfmom to me if your on a barrier island you definatley GO!!

if your inland its depends on your elevation and house construction.

For me it has always been head inland.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Not supposed to make landfall till tonight or tomorrow morning.


Thanks. So there's still time for possible strengthening?
Wow. The sun is peaking out now through the clouds after that big squall that just came through.
Quoting Alockwr21:
Is 94L still off shore? or has it come on yet?
it's about 150 miles SE of Wilmington, NC
Mik its wandering. Wants to stay over the gulf stream a little longer ;)
Quoting keywestbrat:
thats funny the mom, but i must be on his iggy
You been bad again?
Quoting mikatnight:
Post 745:

Why does it look to be moving slightly East of North?


The flow over it is nne shifting to nnw and maybe nw before going back to n.
... Record low temperature tied at Tampa...

a record low temperature of 65 degrees was set at Tampa today. This ties the old record of 65 set in 1990.

Anyone see an early death for what's left of tropical wx season?
Quoting capefearspt:
it's about 150 miles SE of Wilmington, NC


Appreciate that.
Quoting keywestbrat:
this looks neat


Link


Looks very neat.
Quoting Bonedog:
Mik its wandering. Wants to stay over the gulf stream a little longer ;)


Don't like to see these storms sit over the gulf stream,and if 93l comes on up,want to see what happens when it encounters the gulf stream too.
new blog
Quoting KeyWestwx:


"OUCH" got the tune in my head now- got to admit.......


Yeah..pretty lame joke.

But, now i'll have that song stuck in my head the rest of the day. LOL!
Thanks BD & HK.
Thankfully...I do not live on the island (at the time I remember thinking my spouse was a party pooper) --NOW I am grateful. We pick the house based on construciton and elevation. He built an addition (architect) that was built probably to the specs of the "last house standing" on Galveston. Pillars sunk way down, poured concrete , rebars and on and on. Neighbors thought he was looney -- me, glad I have a fortress -- above which I fly the Jolly Roger, alpha flag and dive flag...plus a statue of King Neptune --to whom we pay homage too.

the rest is in the hands of fate, mother nature and yeaa Luck
Quoting KeyWestwx:


Yes Mom- you must be on our iggy.. What the heck does that mean- Teehee

And who you callin a Square??? :)
;-) I got two Keys to teach me while they make me giggle so instead of calling you thing one and Thing 2 My first Key is Key so you are Key squared unless you would rather be Key to the second power ;-) Key one gave me an s since Surfmom is the original mom I'm moms lol

Are you guys getting any of this brisk morning air all the way down there yet?
NE I think if anything we would look at a strong Nor'Easter. Waters south of LI are cool and the Stream isn't that big so maybe a quick burst nothing major though
Morning SJ. I just sent you info for Friday to your personal email. Great job to you and Press and everyone else that made this contribution possible.
770TheMom. I got that... I think
Jeff Masters has posted his latest...
!!!!!!!! NEW BLOG !!!!!!!
Quoting TheMom:
;-) I got two Keys to teach me while they make me giggle so instead of calling you thing one and Thing 2 My first Key is Key so you are Key squared unless you would rather be Key to the second power ;-) Key one gave me an s since Surfmom is the original mom I'm moms lol

Are you guys getting any of this brisk morning air all the way down there yet?


Wow- that's quite the formula you got there. need to bring out my abacus to figure it out.
The cool air is slooowly creeping in. Miami wxman said a stronger cold front might move in next week- seems like tropical season may come to an early end....
Quoting bjdsrq:


Dude, you are one of the biggest fear mongers on this board. Give it a break for once.


That couldn't be farther from the truth.

You read it, now you know about it, don't you? That was the goal and it worked. I state facts, I don't hype, I don't spread fear. This IS a serious problem that's just being realized off the lower east peninsula. So, next time you come over to the east coast and go for a swim you'll be aware of the situation and more cautious.
Quoting IKE:


Note: takes a minute to load. Be patient....at least view it after I went to all of this trouble.
Thanks Ike it looks like the COC is going north and the convetion is going NE so it is the pull from 94 grabbing and not the shear removing is that right?
779. MahFL
Om the Wilmington LR radar it looks like 94L is begginning to wrap round convection at the COC.