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Nor'easter of 2007 winds down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:50 PM GMT on April 17, 2007

The Nor'easter of 2007 is steadily winding down, but will continue to bring high winds, minor coastal flooding, and up to one inch of rain to portions of the Northeast U.S. today. The nor'easter brought the heaviest rains since 1882 to New York City and northern New Jersey, triggering widespread flooding that will cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Hoboken, NJ became an island when roads surrounding the city flooded up to three feet deep, submerging cars, basements and parking lots. Over 1400 people were evacuated from homes along the Raritan River in New Jersey, which crested 10.5 feet above flood stage. At least 5000 people were evacuated in New Hampshire due to flooding, and over 400 roads closed. A woman and her 4-year-old granddaughter died when they were swept into fast-moving floodwaters as they tried to cross a washed-out section of a road in Lebanon, Maine, near the New Hampshire border. Winds gusting to 60 mph knocked out power to over 123,000 homes in Maine, the second largest power outage in state history. The record was set during an ice storm in 1998 that knocked out power to 340,000 homes.

Storm surges
Along the Massachusetts coast, tidal flooding has been minor to moderate, with overwash and erosion of dunes, flooding of coastal roads and some homes, but minimal damage to buildings. The peak storm surge in Boston at high tide was 2.2 feet yesterday, which added to the regular high tide to bring a 13.2 foot storm tide. Tonight's high tide may bring a storm tide half a foot higher, leading to moderate flooding. The new moon will bring a slightly higher high tide tonight than yesterday, and winds will remain gale-force, pushing 20-foot waves against the coast. Maine has already seen its highest storm surge from the storm--2.5-3.5 feet of surge during high tide yesterday. This was the fourth highest storm surge along the Maine coast since 1990. Storm surges of 1.5-2 feet are likely along the Maine coast during today's high tide cycles. Storm surges of 1-2 feet are likely at high tide today in New York City and Long Island Sound, which will cause additional minor to moderate flooding. The storm caused major erosion at Jones Beach, Robert Moses State Park and beaches in Montauk on Long Island.

Winds and snow
Tupper Lake, NY recorded 26 inches of snow. Winds gusts of 72 mph were observed in Milton, MA; 81 mph in Cape Elizabeth, ME, and 156 mph at Mount Washington in New Hampshire.

Figure 1. Visible image of the 2007 Nor'easter on Monday at 4 pm EDT. Image credit: The University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog, which has a nice page of images and animations of the Nor'easter of 2007.

I'll have a new blog Wednesday or Thursday.
Jeff Masters
high tide in kennebunkport
high tide in kennebunkport
ocean side business in kennebunkport ME
New England Nor'easter
New England Nor'easter
High tide & a 4' storm surge left the marina parking lot under water


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great satellite images from CIMSS! My friend lives in Hoboken and e-mailed me today. He said he couldnt believe the flooding, he has never seen it like this. People were being rescued from cars.
Storm death count has jumped to 16 this morning.
So this Nor'easter is a practice drill if a slow moving tropical hurricane were ever again to invade the North East.
Ummm kinda Mr. Perfect! Throw in 100+ mph winds and a larger storm surge!
Just lets you know it can get much worse than what happend this week.
Hi ! Looking at the Sat. Images of the storm. If that was at 15 n 50 w, we would ALL be freaking out. Great storm !!
10. Inyo
Seriously Pottery, that would mean it just snowed several feet in the middle of the tropical Atlantic! :)
Hey everybody, Earlier today i saw that someone posted a map showing TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITIES and it was pretty high in the EAST PACIFIC, well for the past couple of days the GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT!
Wonder if we'll get our first NHC invest.
Last fall Dr. Masters mentioned that the El Nino was occuring much later in the year than normal and I was wondering if that may have 'Offset' the Winter in North America providing us with snow in the second half of April.
Shear is rather destructive in the EPAC right now!
I don't know if it should.But it could.I haven't even looked at a satellite image yet,LOL.
Shear is quite high across the eastern pacific and conditions also should remain unfavorable across the atlantic for the next couple of weeks maybe longer.No worries.
Hey H23.
Whats up buddy!

Looks like a weak circulation...But conditions look unfavorable in this area.

Here's another view...

Here is a 16-frame loop of this cluster kris pointed out to.I see a very weak circulation if any as conditions are unfavorable across this area.Give it 2-3 weeks and we will probably get our first invest somewere in that area.Adrian
It has the SST's
The EPAC should see a rather quiet year! At least it should that is, if not, my predictions for this year in the Atlantic are a bust. Typically when the EPAC sees and active season the Atlantic is quiet and vice versa.
Hey H23 How ya doing? And Hello to all.
27. Inyo
is the EPAC mild during active atlantic seasons because waves turn into tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic and go north, rather than crossing Central America and forming into 'canes there? Or it is some kind of shear thing associated with jet stream wavelengths?
new nor easter coming???
Low moving thur texas looks to be getting its act together gfs shows a low in the gom thur and moving up the east cost next week, just not as big as this weeks.
It is both actually INYO! Average EPAC sees 15 named storms from May 15th to Nov 30th. Reduced activity in the EPAC would traditionally mean more favorable conditions in the Atlantic. I personally keep a close eye on the activity in the EPAC, I think it gives a good indication to what we will see in the Atlantic. IMPO
hurricanedave -- looks more like a ridge will build over the west atlantic to me. Storms will ride up and over the ridge. Thats the trend the GFS is showing...
Living on a barrier island 4 miles off the mainland, it is hard to get big diurnal variations. If it warms up strongly, a seabreeze usually knocks the temperature back in late morning. But today it has gone from 50.5 to 82.2, a 31.7 degree rise. That is the biggest jump up from morning to afternoon here in 4 years.
32. Inyo
I keep an eye on EPAC for the off chance it will bring us some rain up here! Of course, active atlantic seasons that send storms into the gulf can also lead to some rain in southern California, especially the deserts. There was one case in 2005 where one of the tropical systems that hit texas actually maintained an upper-level rotation all the way across the continent to California... gave the thunderstorms a little 'kick'.

Certainly, if the year is a typical La Nina, that would favor the Atlantic.
33. MZT
I don't see much connection between upper and lower level in that East Pac storm. It's still early for the region. But not "way too early".
thats why I posted this circulation map last night on this blog and a few others, very promising to see first Pacific storm

Storm Size..ie: relative and effects..the PDF file: Link
Hey Guys. How is everyone this evening?
on the satellite picture in the blog covering the eastern USA, you can see the smoke plume from a large forest/brush fire in the Okeefenokee swamp being blown SE towards Jacksonville, FL.
I give the Eatern Pacific a 1% chance of an above average season. I am just not convinced that La Nina will kick up anything extra special this summer. I think the only thing in the skys will be the AM clouds and Fog on the account of the cooler then average ocean waters.

I would like to note this is only if the La Nina kicks in into gear from know tell July.
I usually don't post all that often. But there was an interesting article in the Miami Herald concerning Global Warming and hurricane intensity. Chris Landsea (gotta love the name) actually says GW will REDUCE the number and intesnity of storms because warming will also cause increased wind shear, just like el nino does today.

Article Link: http://www.miamiherald.com/416/story/77443.html

Does anyone know if that disturbance that will form in the NE Carribean on June 19th will come into the Gulf, grow into a cat 2 and hit Tampa? -----That is one thing I hate about the idiots on this chat board.
Even with La Nina, anything can happen:

Hurricane Ava
A tropical depression formed on June 2. It steadily strengthened and headed in a generally westerly direction. It moved slowly and became Hurricane Ava on June 4. Two days later, it became a major hurricane and it sped up. On June 7, it became a Category 5 hurricane. It then started weakening and slowed down until it dissipated on June 12.

Ava's minimum central pressure was 915 millibars, and its winds reached a phenomenal 140 knots. This made Ava the most intense recorded east Pacific hurricane at the time. Ava reached Category 5 intensity on June 7, the earliest date in an east Pacific season that a hurricane has done so. It was also the third known Category 5 storm in the east Pacific; (behind two storms in 1959). Ava is the strongest June storm, the third most intense east Pacific hurricane, and the only June Category 5. It is also somewhat remarkable as it reached Category 5 intensity during a La Nia year, the only known east Pacific hurricane to do so.
Hey there ClwStmChasr. Hows things across the street over there in Clearwater.
Posted By: clwstmchasr at 8:56 PM EDT on April 17, 2007.
Does anyone know if that disturbance that will form in the NE Carribean on June 19th will come into the Gulf, grow into a cat 2 and hit Tampa?

Does anyone know if that disturbance that will form in the NE Carribean on June 19th will come into the Gulf, grow into a cat 2 and hit Tampa? -----That is one thing I hate about the idiots on this chat board.

LOL, same.
All jokes aside, everyone starts learning somehow...
Whats a hurricane?
Hurricane -- A violent, tropical, cyclonic storm of the western North Atlantic, having wind speeds of or in excess of 72 mph
I was kidding too... everyone here knows what's a hurricane, right?

Anybody know when the next updated Hurricane Reports come out from CSU or TSR or when the NHC or NOAA put out their May Report. tia
Posted By: SevereWeatherFreak at 1:34 AM GMT on April 18, 2007.

Whats a hurricane?

The technical definition of "Hurricane" is as follows...

A bobsled race run by gnomes to a giant candycane like structure which exists at 79.74S, 108.22E.
Weird that were i live in nystate(Pitcher) we have 16+inches of snow and just south and east in pa/jersey they have floods while north of us got over 2ft of snow. Had the temps been colder then in the 30's we would have had alot more snow too. The only that gets me is how did this storm get so powerfull this late in the year. We dont usually get this kind of snow in april.
Yes it is strange how the weather has been acting. Cold one month hot the next and cold again the next and again hot the next.
Almost in the same way the ENSO is behaving in the past couple years.
So should the northeast be aspecting alot of rain this summer or hot and dry summer?
part of the reason the storm became so strong was do to a convergence of air masses: cold/cool to the north, warm/mild in the south
an interesting radar shot of the smoke plumes from the Okeefenokee Swamp fires:

And a shot of the Category 7 hurricane with the 150 mile wide eye making landfall @ Tampa on radar now :P

Well! If one wanted to draw conclusions to the latest long range CPC PRECIPITATION FORCAST for September and October. You could say that a strong bermuda high is expected, an active hurricane season for south florida is expected, and recurvature up the east coast is also expected. Purely my hypothetical opinion.
Where the heck did THIS come from!
Houston, seems to be a problem with the radar! Dry as a bone out there.
Nice one guys... it's just clutter. :)
it's a strong temperature inversion setting up as radiational cooling takes place over land. The inversion is refracting the radar beam into the ground.
I've seen this happen before, but never so symmetrically. Going to gank it to my stored images.
That's what I was thinking.
Steve,that'd be quite a bit of clutter.
Still it looks like a Cat 7 :)
Could just be a problem with the radar programs.Not the actual returns,but a problem with how they're being read.
Notice how only the Tampa radar is showing it.Clutter or an inversion would be on them all.
Not much of an inversion to reflect off of,anyway.

It is showing up on the Wunderground main page also.
I bet it is showing on them all, but that the other Florida radars are using a clutter algorithm to delete it. It would be interesting to see if it suddenly disappears from the Tampa radar in the next hour or two, but I am going to bed.
hmmm good point Kris. And I thought that it showing up right after sunset explained it! Oh well I'm going to bed, sleepy time!
Goodnight.Of course it is,canewhisperer.They get data from the NWS,not their own radars.
Never seen it that pronounced before! Ya learn something new everyday.
Even when you turn on "Hide Clutter",the radar still shows it.
77. V26R
They might even have the sensitivity set differently for this evening, so maybe thats why its showing the funky returns
NWS in NYC plays around with the radar settings all the time
It's odd,that's for sure.
Who knows.

I got burned by that long range prediction so many times. I only take it one month at a time at most.
That is why I speak Hypothetically! Now until the middle of May, I look deep into EVERYTHING, as does everyone else. Patterns are setting up as we speak. Things change all season, I realize that but, come May 19th I will be able to give a pretty decent look on the season.
lol that is a first that Ive seen for this blog, Andrix that is disgusting buddy
is Andrix formerly known as Randrewl?
someone who knows Aaron's handle shoot him an e-mail so we can get this lowlife's comment off of here before people end up having to see it at work
Randrewl's gone?
Randrewl was banned from the wu. Sorry to say. HE is unable to access the site.

Hit the ! who ever is on.
I already hit the - button, the ! button, and sent wuba-mails to Aaron and Dr. Masters. Hopefully that crap will be removed from here very soon.
usually after 5 ! it will disappear.
What did Randrewl do?
When is Africa going to start sending hurricane smoke signals across the atlantic?
Article from the AP.

In Short, it says that with Global warming comes more shear which destroys hurricanes. A possible counter argument to global warming = more intense hurricanes.

Any thoughts?
Hurricane Betsy SLOSH model..New Orleans ..1965. Link
Who the heck is Andrix He needs to be kicked off What a JERK. This is awful!
MissBennett.......This is very interesting research (great article) but like any of these type of long-range studies/predictions, it may take a few decades to determine the outcome of the shear vs. warming impact on tropical formation.......If the well documented El Nino/La Nina studies hold true, then last year's high shear environment was a function of El Nino...........
Good morning guys...
Good afternoon! Sunny, warm, light breeze, 75 degrees F., humidity 35 %, Great view of the ocean today here in balmy Portugal.
Global Warming = Increased Shear in the Atlantic?

Good article on the subject! Very interesting indeed.
Just goes to show you how many variables there are (and many more we probably don't know about) when dealing with the climate!
This is all great stuff; very humbling for us amateurs in terms of how much research and thought goes into trying to predict Mother Nature............As we know around here, She never ceases to amaze us and curve balls (like last season) are thrown all the time......(which we then end up calling an anomily year)
There are always weird articles like that. I just read one the other day that said, although tropical rainforests help global warming, northern forests do not, since they absorb more heat than the ground would.

So a plant in the tundra = bad...a plant in the tropics = good?

LoL, I'm so confused.
Cellulose absorbs very little heat, no matter where it is found on the earth.
Find the darkest pine log lying in the Sun on a 100 degree day and put your face against it. You'll be fine. Now walk over and do the same on a black asphalt road. You'll need skin grafts.
I think what that article was getting on was this: Dark colored rees absorb more heat than snow covered ground (which makes sense). The same trees can also trap heat underneath (considering the climate, they would be evergreen trees).
Just a study i dont put to much into it but if it were to indeed pan out it would indicate quieter times across the atlantic and more active seasons for the pacific.
How dare you criticize the runoff from my lead battery factory, when mice are taking dumps anywhere they want.
Good Morning Everyone. It's been a rainy day here so far, but know the sun is peaking thru.
To ease your GW fears Link now if we could only get those tunnels working
there is some in mass up with the Climate Change blog

all it is this saying is

No Such Entry

Global warming may tame hurricanes

A new study concluded that global warming may produce conditions that discourage strong hurricanes, but effects would be years away.


Now, the brighter side of global warming: It might not strengthen hurricanes after all, and it eventually could inhibit their development and growth.

Illustrating the bewildering complexity of the climate, a study scheduled for publication today found that global warming will strengthen a phenomenon called ''wind shear'' -- crosswinds that tear apart or substantially weaken hurricanes.

And that could counteract global warming's baking of the Atlantic Ocean, which some experts have predicted will grow so hot by the end of this century that it turbocharges hurricanes.

''Global warming is producing other changes in the environment besides a warming ocean, and these changes are acting to offset ocean temperatures,'' said Brian Soden, coauthor of the new study and a climate scientist at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Chris Landsea, the National Hurricane Center's science officer and an expert on global warming and hurricanes, said the study suggests that a warmer climate could make the Atlantic ``more hostile to hurricanes.''

Still, any changes will be very gradual, he and other scientists say. For now, we remain in a decades-long cycle of active hurricane development, they say, and last year's relatively benign season was the exception to the current rule.

The next six-month hurricane season begins June 1, and forecasters are predicting above-average activity.


The peer-reviewed study, set for publication in today's issue of Geophysical Research Letters, seemed certain to reignite one of the most heated debates in science: What effect, if any, does global warming have on hurricanes?

Some scientists say they have found evidence that global warming already has intensified the storms and will continue to do so, largely because hurricanes feed on warm water.

Others call that evidence sketchy and inconclusive, and they say any link between global warming and hurricanes is so tiny that it cannot be accurately measured.

The new study, also conducted by Gabriel Vecchi of the federal government's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., examined 18 computerized forecast models that were tweaked to reflect a steadily warming climate.

It found that one dramatic consequence of global warming will be the creation of stronger crosswinds over much of the tropical Atlantic, the primary breeding ground of hurricanes.

The average intensity of those winds could increase by 10 to 15 percent by the end of the century, said Soden, who also helped write an influential warming study released in February by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

That wind shear is related to the development of El Nio conditions in the eastern Pacific.

El Nios, slightly warmer than normal seas, tend to generate strong crosswinds that move eastward and can inhibit hurricane development.

The opposite conditions are called La Nia, cooler than normal seas that are less likely to produce storm-destroying crosswinds.


This year, scientists say, La Nia conditions are developing -- one reason why they expect an especially active hurricane season.

The study also predicted increased wind shear in the eastern Pacific (near Mexico and Latin America), but less wind shear farther away in the Pacific, meaning that parts of Asia might experience more and stronger storms, called typhoons.

The hurricane center's Landsea, who did not participate in the study, called it ``a very important contribution to the understanding of how global warming is affecting hurricane activity.''

Soden, Vecchi and Landsea emphasized that the new study does not alter the scientific consensus that global warming is occurring, humans are contributing to it and the planet will suffer.

''The fact that there may or may not be a connection between global warming and hurricanes shouldn't in any way undermine our concerns about global warming, which are very real,'' he said.

Global Warming effects on hurricanes
114. Inyo
The latest models are bringing some beneficial rains into southern California late this week and early next week... let's hope!
Hey weather people. Nice in Texas, the sun is peeking out, come to think of it, something else is peeking out. GOT TO GO. Be back soon.
Let me ask you something. If hurricanes disappear, what will happen to the poles? Hurricanes transfer heat from the tropics to the poles.

Does this mean that we would actually see the poles refreeze, and that we would see severe cycles between deep freeze and blistering heat over the whole planet after "global warming' takes place?

Wouldn't that endanger life even MORE?
Does this mean that we would actually see the poles refreeze, and that we would see severe cycles between deep freeze and blistering heat over the whole planet after "global warming' takes place?

Maybe in the subtropics (like here - recall the incredibly warm December and March and the very cold February and first half of April - plenty of dead plants because of that around here) but the tropics would become even warmer and the poles colder, while the globe overall heats up (I am clueless as to why some say that the planet would go back into an ice age as a result of warming, some areas might get colder but not the whole planet).
118. mac18
What cracks me up is if we're supposed to be having 'global warming' why are we getting nor'easters in April? Shouldn't it be spring already?
What cracks me up is if we're supposed to be having 'global warming' why are we getting nor'easters in April? Shouldn't it be spring already?

Global warming = more violent weather (cold air + warm air = storms; add more heat = stronger storms). Also, you need a global perspective... the United States is not the world... the main factor in the U.S.'s temperature is the jet stream, which is currently moving back north, allowing warm air to flood the eastern half of the country.
Look at this - other parts of the world are definately baking (aslo recall that the past NH winter/SH summer was the hottest ever recorded worldwide):

Eastern and northern India reel under intense heat wave

And it is only mid-April?!?!?!?!?!?!
If ever increasing shear conditions are a result of global warming, then the continental masses will become arid quickly.
That makes no sense... hurricanes don't provide any moisture here (except in rare cases like Dennis in 2005). If anything, higher shear would mean more severe thunderstorms.
uggggh! GW again!

I hope the planet freezes solid so I don' have to hear it anymore! LOL
We are waiting till late April to hedge our bets! LOL
Michael...historically tropical moisture is half the Summer moisture for the southeast, and two thirds of the moisture for the Florida peninsula. Tropical moisture comes in a variety of ways ie. lows, squall lines, depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes. Now, break all that up with constant windshear and see how long it takes Florida to look like Kuwait.
Good afternoon to all.........
My temp today

90 f, but with heat index, read 96.

This is supposed to be the balmy tropics man............

Thats for Trinidad, West Indies, for any that dont know.
33 days to hurricane season. Does everyone think this is going to be an active year?

Pensacolastorm, go to jphurricane2006 blog, to see what people think will happen !
It appears the bloggers expect a very active year. 15 to 21 storms. Hopefully the bullseye on the norhtern gulf coast has moved - not that I wish storms on anyone else, but we have already had our share.
134. Inyo
Posted By: primez at 6:13 PM GMT on April 18, 2007.
Let me ask you something. If hurricanes disappear, what will happen to the poles? Hurricanes transfer heat from the tropics to the poles.

That does seem like a logical conclusion, at least around North America. But most models predict more warming at the poles. The whole thing is very complex and nobody knows what will happen! It could do anything, which is why it is so scary. We are all living to the optimal extent with the current climate, when it changes, we will have problems.
No kidding pensacolastorm!!! Pensacola is my hometown.
Hurricanes are also far from the only thing that transfers heat from the tropics; otherwise, how come it is getting warmer right now, despite the fact that no hurricanes have occurred?
Goodnight all. Its past 1000 p.m. Till tomorrow!
STL,do I really need to answer that?LOL
The sun's elevation angle is increasing.
LOL... I knew that; it is like everybody thinks that hurricanes are the only means of heat transfer and that is why it gets hot during hurricane season... LOL
143. Inyo
subtropical storms, extratropical storms, and ocean currents also transfer heat, of course.
Inyo - remember that with the elimination of the ice the albedo will decrease. That will accelerate warming there. Then, as noted, other mechanisms transfer heat.

I wonder if the shift in shear patterns will intensify Pacific storms? More Iokes on the horizon?

Another observation: the cycling between El Nino and La Nina seems to be faster. Anyone else think it seems that way?
Check my blog.
Come Check out my new website
147. H2PV
What cracks me up is if we're supposed to be having 'global warming' why are we getting nor'easters in April? Shouldn't it be spring already?

Good question, and one that you should tackle until you solve it, not just throw it down, say "so there", dust your hands and walk away. All storms are manifestations of energy. How much energy was in this storm and where did that energy come from?

Scientists ask these kinds of questions, then ponder the evidence, test the evidence, debate it amongst themselves. If they are lucky, then they may arrive at answers in their lifetime. Some science questions were not unraveled for generations over centuries of time. The people in Darwin's day were convinced that the Biblical Flood was the answer for finding fossil sea shells up on sides of mountains. Darwin's geology teacher figured out that glaciers in his day made rubble heaps as they advanced and retracted, and he decided that rubble heaps of a similar nature far from glaciers meant slow processes were causing big global geological changes over long periods of time.

In that day they could not imagine continental drift and tectonic plates. Geologists lived and died without ever knowing the answers to their questions, and another whole century went past before DNA was confirmed and multiple ice ages became fact.

As of 2007 basic facts of physics are not getting out of the centers of higher learning down to the population. You will see that people here often make posts about convection as if in some way gravity was less for hotter gases than for colder ones. Understanding that gravity does not change means asking deeper questions about convection, and when you have those answers you can see the direct connection between summer heat and winter storms.

At 100 degrees below zero on the Farenheit scale the temperature is still a toasty 200 degrees on the Kelvin scale. Kelvin was one of the two people who simultaneously discovered important facts about heat transfer -- Kelvin got a temperature scale named after him, but the other guy was forgotten even though he was an American Florida dentist who invented the refrigeration that keeps your ice tea cool in the summer.

It's that concept, heat energy making cold in refrigeration which is the stumbling block. We take it for granted that it works when we reach in for ice cubes to fill our glass, but we forget it works when icy blasts race out of the polar regions to freeze our tootsies.

It's the exact same physic principle: heat can cause cold by inducing expansion. Seven words: "heat can cause cold by inducing expansion", yet beyond the understanding of people who are not on the receiving end of the learning known in the centers of higher knowledge. Who is at fault that you have not received this understanding? Is it the universities' fault that they have not gone house to house and made everybody learn? Or is it because you have not gone to the fountain of knowledge and drank deep?

Until all the polar ice is gone there are going to be bitter swings between extremes: extreme heat and extreme cold, extreme dry and extreme wet, very extreme winds at times which this blog watches. By the time the extremes are all finished there won't be any civilization left and maybe not even any human beings. It was already a planet with some nasty extremes before people with no understanding of the "weather machine" started vandalizing it, and now the extremes will be worse for some time to come thanks to deep widespread persistent ignorance.

There once was a time that ignorance was excusable, before all the world's knowledge was at your fingertips and even children have supercomputers on their desktops. That's no longer fashionable. Everybody is born ignorant, but it is a choice if you stay that way.

Cheers to Doctor Masters who cures the disease of ignorance in those who come for the cure. He has far more patience that I ever will. I personally have very little tolerance for adults who haven't read 200 science books in their lifetime, when libraries make them available for free. Good luck Masters, more power to you. The science behind refrigeration, "heat energy making cold", exists, whether deniers accept it or not as they make scorn on science knowledge from air-conditioned homes and eat foods kept fresh in their fridges.
The SAL in the Caribbean has vatacted the premisis

active season ahead?
H2PV...awesome..nuff said.
We have been receiving the nicest rain from the low in the gulf for the last few hours. Just about all the models had it fizzling out. Im SO glad they were wrong. Its been months since we had rain this long in north central Fla.
TheCaneWhisperer liked the warming/shear article. I think there could be a trend too. I wonder if the fluke 2005 year was some type of shear enhancement and/or canceling event - ether by prevailing direction or level that aided in the formation of storms.
H2PV Very well stated. I've not read 200 scientific books but consider myself well read and one thing is certain and that is that the earth is either in a warming or cooling phase at any given point in time with or without man. My question is this: when earth is in a global cooling phase, who causes it?
155. Inyo

Another observation: the cycling between El Nino and La Nina seems to be faster. Anyone else think it seems that way?

I have noticed this as well. Also, for the last 5 years, the correlation between ENSO and rainfall patterns in southern California has not been as strong as in the past - a very mild El Nino brought record rains, and a somewhat stronger el nino brought record drought. Last summer was incredibly weird and can't be attributed to either.
That could also be long term for California as we are beginning our dry season. :^(
H2PV...... well said. Thank you.
Inyo....... It does seem that the corelation between ENSO and the predicted effects associated with that cycle are a little out of whack. But surely our historical modelling is going to show some out-of-whackiness purely because historically, we've never been here before.
The way things are going Lower Cal, you could see your wettest dry season yet! CPC bodes bad news for the west coast though! Hummm Little rain during El Nino, Less rain during Neutral. Seems the old grey mare just aint what she used to be.
Is it usual, in La Nina conditions, when the sst on the west coast of central America is as cool as it is now, for there to be such high sst just North of that ?
Hello ??
pottery do you live on the islands?
Weather and porn, like mayonnaise on a peanut butter sandwich.
You got that right franck.
169. Inyo
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 1:49 AM GMT on April 19, 2007.
The way things are going Lower Cal, you could see your wettest dry season yet!

last year the east flow tried to kick in during the dry season, which was quite weird. one theory is that with global warming winters will be drier, but we would start getting summer rain. that would change everything.

we will see, it will be an interesting summer.
morning Dr Jeff
hope you have a great Thursday!
Anyone know which was the SAL conditions last year in this date???? Thanks
storm junkie i believe has that info in his blog refill
H2PV, I decided to get an account here after several years lurking so that i could tell you that i feel that was a great post. Wish there were more people like you around.
man..... read 200 science books..... I better get started, so maybe I can share a cognitive thought in the future!

Can i get a waiver if I studied heat transfer in the navy? LOL
"Posted By: franck


hmmmm, I would have thought the Navy Nuclear Power program would have done a good job teaching me heat transfer...... guess I was wrong! :)
H2PV, Brilliant post. Very well written, clear and to the point. I printed a copy to show as many people as I can. Your post clears a lot of cobwebs and lets the sun shine through. Thanks to you and to Dr. Masters.
Thank you Dr. Masters.
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