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Norbert re-strengthens; Odile dumping heavy rains; Atlantic getting more active

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:13 PM GMT on October 10, 2008

An area of disturbed weather (97L) has developed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. Wind shear is a moderate 10-15 knots over the disturbance, and waters are warm, about 29° C. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are beginning to look organized, with a little bit of upper-level outflow to the north. This morning's QuikSCAT pass mostly missed 97L, but did show an elongated, poorly organized surface circulation developing, and 20 mph winds.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 97L.

The forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate 10-20 knot range the next three days, and waters will remain warm, 28-29°C. This should allow 97L to come close to tropical depression status 2-3 days from now. The GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET models develop 97L into a tropical storm by Monday. NHC is giving 97L a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The storm is expected to track to the northwest over the open Atlantic, and shouldn't affect any land areas. By Wednesday, most of the models are predicting that an extratropical storm will form just north of Puerto Rico, and this storm will probably end up pulling 97L northwards into the Atlantic hurricane graveyard.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models continue to forecast the possible development of a tropical depression in the south central Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, as early as Tuesday next week. A very moist atmosphere with low wind shear is predicted for the southern Caribbean next week, and I put the odds of a tropical storm forming there at 30%. The potential motion of such a storm is difficult to predict at this time.


Figure 2. Hurricane Norbert at 20:55 GMT October 8, 2008. At the time, Norbert was a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Norbert weakens, then re-strengthens
Hurricane Norbert stalled out yesterday afternoon for several hours, which allowed the storm's churning winds to upwell large amounts of cold water, weakening the storm. Norbert has since resumed its track towards Mexico's Baja Peninsula, and is over warmer waters. Norbert also underwent an eyewall replacement cycle yesterday, which also served to weaken it. In an eyewall replacement cycle, the eyewall collapses, and gets replaced by a new eyewall that was concentric (at a greater diameter) with the old eyewall. These cycles typically take 1-2 days to complete, and the hurricane will remain relatively weak while it struggles to adjust to the new eyewall. The most recent microwave imagery suggests that this process is complete, as there is no trace of the old inner eyewall now. Infrared satellite loops show that the cloud tops of the eyewall clouds have cooled in recent hours, indicating that they are more vigorous and extend higher into the atmosphere. There is excellent upper-level outflow in all quadrants, and wind shear is moderate, near 10-15 knots. Satellite estimates of Norbert's strength indicate the storm has probably intensified into at least a Category 2 hurricane this morning. A Hurricane Hunter mission into Norbert is scheduled for this afternoon, and we will see if this intensification has actually taken place. Yesterday, the Hurricane Hunters found that a layer of stable air near the surface was preventing Norbert's strongest winds at high levels from mixing down to the surface. It still may be the case that Norbert has only Category 1 strength winds at the surface.

The computer models continue to be tightly clustered around a landfall in southwestern Baja near San Carlos, 150 miles north of the southern tip of Baja, on Saturday afternoon. The waters along Norbert's path are unusually warm for this time of year, about 1-3° C above average (Figure 3), and will increase in temperature to 29°C as Norbert approaches Baja. However, these warm waters do not extend very deep, and the total oceanic heat content is low. Once Norbert crosses Baja and enters the Gulf of California, total heat content increases, but Norbert will not be over these warm waters long enough to take advantage of them. Wind shear is expected to increase to a high 20-25 knots tonight. Given these factors, landfall Saturday afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane with 100-105 mph winds, as predicted by the GFDL and HWRF models, is a good forecast. The SHIPS models is weaker, putting Norbert at Category 1 strength with 85 mph winds. It is only 10-20% likely that Norbert would be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall. Tropical storm force winds should extend outwards about 130 miles at landfall, so the southern tip of Baja (San Lucas) will probably see sustained winds of 30-35 mph, should Norbert hit near San Carlos, as predicted. One can look at the forecast radius of tropical storm force winds by clicking on the wundermap for Norbert, then selecting "wind radius" in the check boxes at the bottom of the page.

Crossing rugged Baja will probably knock Norbert down a full Category, by about 20-25 mph. The storm will still pack a solid punch when it makes it second landfall on mainland Mexico north of Los Mochis. Rainfall amounts in mainland Mexico will be 4-8 inches, and 6-10 inches over Baja. Norbert's remains should bring 1-2 inches of rain to portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.


Figure 3. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for October 6, 2008. Note the region being traversed by Norbert is 1-3 °C above average. Image credit: NOAA.

Odile dumping heavy rains on Mexico
Mexico has another storm to be concerned with, Tropical Storm Odile. Satellite estimates indicate Odile has dumped up to six inches of rain on the coast just east of Acapulco. Additional heavy rains of up to eight inches should affect the coast as Odile tracks along the coast, just offshore. Mexican radar and infrared satellite loops show that the heaviest rain is now offshore. However, heavy rain will likely move back onshore later today. Odile is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and this shear is forecast to remain in the 15-20 knot range the next 3-5 days. This should allow the storm to gradually intensify into a Categroy 1 hurricane.

Thursday update on Hurricane Ike relief efforts
Yesterday's update from Paul Timmons (Presslord) on the Hurricane Ike relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie:

While the devastating aftermath of hurricane Ike seems no longer to capture the interest of mainstream media, we all know that the needs continue. Chief Dickie Uzzle of the Bridge City, TX, fire department has informed us that only 14 homes in that community (population: 8700) did not sustain ruinous water damage. Many families continue to live in tents in front of their homes, with ALL of their personal belongings piled in the yard awaiting removal.

Laura Cremans, Manager of the Churches of Christ distribution center in Bridge City tells us " Only one truck of supplies has come here since Ike made landfall. We are desperate here."

This is the list of specific needs that we are currently attaining and working to attain for the rural populations and the disabilities community along the Texas Gulf Coast. We have worked closely with several local relief efforts as well as municipalities to identify these needs.

Undergarments
Socks
Men's & Women's Clothing (we already have a commitment for a substantial number of men's and women's pants)

Air Mattresses
Blankets/Sleeping bags
Tents
Insect repellent
All baby items
Formula (We have a commitment from Meade-Johnson to provide some of this)
Diapers
Rash cream
Wipes
Bottles

Our strategy is to focus on attaining as many of these items as possible through donations from manufacturers and distributors. In the last three and a half days, we have made several dozen contacts to this end and are beginning to get positive results; but we need your help.

If you have any contacts or influence which might facilitate us procuring the items listed above please contact us at presslord@aol.com or admin@stormjunkie.com. All your thoughts and ideas are good. The more input we have, the more impact we can have.This will help us successfully implement our strategy of expending donated funds primarily on transportation and logistics of moving donated goods. In this way, we can most effectively steward the donated funds in the most cost effective manner.

Moving forward...

Moving through October we are committed to adjusting our fund raising effort to leverage the grassroots enthusiasm and generosity generated by our Hurricane Ike relief work.  A more proactive approach will enhance our future effectiveness. We are asking you to consider committing to a monthly pledge amount.  The amount you pledge is less important then the consistency.  A dependable monthly donor base will allow us to strategically plan and prepare for the future and help us successfully execute those plans over the long term. 

Please give thoughtful, prayerful consideration to committing to a monthly pledge amount beginning November 1 and email your intentions to presslord@aol.com.

There is much work yet to be done in helping the victims of Ike. And there will certainly be other victims of other storms we can all serve. By continuing to work together as we have the last 3 1/2 weeks, we can have a profound positive impact on thousands of unserved, underserved, and forgotten people...

Also, please remember: we should all forward this information far and
wide...and frequently..

Thanks!!!!!

Contributions to this highly worthy portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. IKE
Josephine was a "fish storm".
We've seen plenty of Atlantic Tropical Systems (Depressions, Storms, and even Hurricanes) become nothing but naked swirls and then go POOF.
Where did it go?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
We've seen plenty of Atlantic Tropical Systems (Depressions, Storms, and even Hurricanes) become nothing but naked swirls and then go POOF.
Where did it go?


The term dissipated when Dean hit as A category 5 followed a few weeks later by Felix as a Category 5.
504. IKE
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
We've seen plenty of Atlantic Tropical Systems (Depressions, Storms, and even Hurricanes) become nothing but naked swirls and then go POOF.
Where did it go?


It dissipated....without affecting a land mass. Some systems are true fish storms.

Josephine did pass south of the Cape Verde's and I checked the observations for September 2nd and 3rd and winds at Sal, Cape Verde(16.7N and 23W), never got over 17 mph.
Yo Aqua9 Gut any fish lately???? LOL
Quoting IKE:
Here's a system that never affected anyone, even after it dissipated as a tropical cyclone...here's the last discussion...

"TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

...CORRECTED FOR HEADER...

JOSEPHINE HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SUBSTANTIAL
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARING UP IN
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER CAN BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE REMNANT LOW OF JOSEPHINE IS MOVING AT 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT SOUTH
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS IT ADVECTS
ALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSEST TO BAM-SHALLOW.

WITH THE STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BECAUSE OF AN UPPER CLOSED LOW NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE...
REGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT
LIKELY. HOWEVER...AT DAYS 3 AND 4 ALL GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW THE
SHEAR RELAXING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM JOSEPHINE'S
REMNANTS. DESPITE THIS...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST ANY
REGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE AT THE LONGER RANGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGREES WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND KEEPS JOSEPHINE
DISSIPATED.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 16.8N 36.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 06/1800Z 17.5N 38.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.5N 40.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.7N 42.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.9N 44.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 48.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB"........



Track...........




Actually, Josephine's remnants continued across the atlantic. It almost became a ts again, but it wasn't organized enough, and the remants hit the Bahamas.
It depends on how far you take it.

As a 'named' storm, there are a fair few examples of storms that 'lost their name' without affecting land in any way.

If you were really including 'remnants' then it'd be pretty hard to make a case of a 'true' fish storm.

I still wouldn't say it's 100% 'factual' that all storms affect land in some way,but if you include remnants, then the percentage would be high.

(Absolutes and meteorology put together is a 'no no', in my honest opinion.)

Quoting brohavwx:
Hello,

First off, antonio28 you are very perseptive

I perceive you mean perceptive?

509. IKE
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Actually, Josephine's remnants continued across the atlantic. It almost became a ts again, but it wasn't organized enough, and the remants hit the Bahamas.


So you're on here asking question after question every day about every potential system, but you state that Josephine almost became a TS again and the remnants hit the Bahamas.

There's nothing in the NHC archives about Josephine EVER reattaining TD status after it first dissipated and for it to become "almost a TS again", wouldn't you think it would have become a TD again?

As far as the remnants hitting the Bahamas, show me some proof.

Good morning. Temps in the Cayman Islands are already at 88 degrees at 9am. Not much going on here weatherwise right now but will see what happens as the weekend progresses. Hope nothing forms in the sw Caribbean as they are prediciting. Remember Wilma ? Mid-October 2005 developed in the sw Caribbean and quickly became a Cat5 while moving N. Passed us to the west.
Quoting IKE:


So you're on here asking question after question every day about every potential system, but you state that Josephine almost became a TS again and the remnants hit the Bahamas.

There's nothing in the NHC archives about Josephine EVER reattaining TD status after it first dissipated and for it to become "almost a TS again", wouldn't you think it would have become a TD again?

As far as the remnants hitting the Bahamas, show me some proof.



I agree...even that disturbance that was in and near the Bahamas wasn't even the remnants of Josephine for sure. So, clearly Josephine was a fish storm.
Quoting IKE:


So you're on here asking question after question every day about every potential system, but you state that Josephine almost became a TS again and the remnants hit the Bahamas.

There's nothing in the NHC archives about Josephine EVER reattaining TD status after it first dissipated and for it to become "almost a TS again", wouldn't you think it would have become a TD again?

As far as the remnants hitting the Bahamas, show me some proof.



This is from wikipedia:

However, the remnant low associated with Josephine began to show signs of redevelopment during the afternoon on September 7. Convection around the system increased significantly and the low was no longer exposed.[17] On September 8, wind shear took over the system again. Convection around the remnant low was torn away and the low was exposed once more. The National Hurricane Center did not state the chance of regeneration once the low became exposed.[18] Finally, on September 9, wind shear and dry air led to the remnants of Josephine deteriorating into an open wave. However, on September 10, the remnants of Josephine redeveloped and global models picked up on the reformed system. Once more, the chance of regeneration was possible as the remnants of Josephine headed towards the Bahamas.

The reason why ask so many questions is because i'm only a teenager!
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


This is from wikipedia:

However, the remnant low associated with Josephine began to show signs of redevelopment during the afternoon on September 7. Convection around the system increased significantly and the low was no longer exposed.[17] On September 8, wind shear took over the system again. Convection around the remnant low was torn away and the low was exposed once more. The National Hurricane Center did not state the chance of regeneration once the low became exposed.[18] Finally, on September 9, wind shear and dry air led to the remnants of Josephine deteriorating into an open wave. However, on September 10, the remnants of Josephine redeveloped and global models picked up on the reformed system. Once more, the chance of regeneration was possible as the remnants of Josephine headed towards the Bahamas.

The reason why ask so many questions is because i'm only a teenager!


I really wouldn't rely on Wikipedia, since some of the stuff in some of the TC profiles sounds a lot like what I've heard people on this blog say before, making it more opinionated. It is correct that the remnants of Josephine showed some signs of regeneration, but that was for a brief time frame. Once in the Bahamas, the left over energy from Josephine may have merged with another system, however this system wasn't in a good environment for develop and about 36 hours or so after being declared an invest it dissipated.
Quoting extreme236:


I really wouldn't rely on Wikipedia, since some of the stuff in some of the TC profiles sounds a lot like what I've heard people on this blog say before, making it more opinionated. It is correct that the remnants of Josephine showed some signs of regeneration, but that was for a brief time frame. Once in the Bahamas, the left over energy from Josephine may have merged with another system, however this system wasn't in a good environment for develop and about 36 hours or so after being declared an invest it dissipated.


I'm just wondering, but what is the true definition of a fish storm?
Drak is right about 97L though, there are two vorticity's competing to become dominant. The one that is 97L looks more impressive on satellite images rather than the one at 43W/11N, but that is the vorticity that is stronger at the moment. Not to say 97L doesn't have a chance to develop, as the NHC clearly says it does, but it has some things to sort out before it does so.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


I'm just wondering, but what is the true definition of a fish storm?


The true definition of a fish storm would be a tropical or subtropical cyclone that never effects land, but my own personal definition is similar, but is a cyclone that doesn't effect land or its effects were very minimal (i.e. if a storm causes rip currents to a land area it would still be a fish storm IMO). Josephine is a good example of a fish storm, while a storm like Bertha, caused effects to Bermuda, and Dolly hit land directly, obviously making those systems not fish storms.
517. IKE
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


This is from wikipedia:

However, the remnant low associated with Josephine began to show signs of redevelopment during the afternoon on September 7. Convection around the system increased significantly and the low was no longer exposed.[17] On September 8, wind shear took over the system again. Convection around the remnant low was torn away and the low was exposed once more. The National Hurricane Center did not state the chance of regeneration once the low became exposed.[18] Finally, on September 9, wind shear and dry air led to the remnants of Josephine deteriorating into an open wave. However, on September 10, the remnants of Josephine redeveloped and global models picked up on the reformed system. Once more, the chance of regeneration was possible as the remnants of Josephine headed towards the Bahamas.

The reason why ask so many questions is because i'm only a teenager!


You left out the last sentence of the information you posted from Wikipedia....

However, on September 14, dry air and wind shear caused the remnants to dissipate entirely.[19]


It never says it affected the Bahamas, just..."as the remnants of Josephine headed towards the Bahamas.
Quoting extreme236:


I agree...even that disturbance that was in and near the Bahamas wasn't even the remnants of Josephine for sure. So, clearly Josephine was a fish storm.


Actually, Josephine's outer bans effected the CVs.
Wow, Norbert is a cat. 3 again! Its remnants are expected to track into Manitoba. By the way, after an already high accumalation, Salt Lake City, Utah will get another 6 inches of snow from the system that will merge with Norbert, and parts of Saskatchewan 6 inches as well.
Whether its 2-5 vorticity's this is only a worry for shipping interest.The trof over the eastern caribbean should carry this out to sea without causeing any issues.

Overall organzation wise it has a rather large/broad circualation to it which has shown some signs of trying to get better organized during the last day or two.Some futher orgainization is possible.

Islands should be ok with this feature.

Have a great saturday! Adrian
Morning Storm...

Nice update. Looks like a few more days of sleepy weather for us...

Good Morning. Are we stilling looking at potential development in the western carribean for the upcoming week?
Hi Storm

I have read your update and would be interested to hear your view on how one reconciles the current position of what is supposed to be 97L and the 850 vort which shows the focal point of the mid level vorticity near 12N 43W.

It seems to me that this is one large disorganized area with two vortices within it. Quikscat shows all SW winds along the entire SE side of a huge swath of ocean and likewise NE winds all the way down the other side on the NW.

Would appreciate you comments

Here is the 850 vortLink
Quoting IKE:


So you're on here asking question after question every day about every potential system, but you state that Josephine almost became a TS again and the remnants hit the Bahamas.

There's nothing in the NHC archives about Josephine EVER reattaining TD status after it first dissipated and for it to become "almost a TS again", wouldn't you think it would have become a TD again?

As far as the remnants hitting the Bahamas, show me some proof.

Actually, Ike, I think it's quite possible that Josephine's remnants ended up here. We usually depend on tropical waves to bring us rain from June to Sept or so. I'll have to look back, though, to see if we did see the ex-J t-Wave here . . . .
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Storm

I have read your update and would be interested to hear your view on how one reconciles the current position of what is supposed to be 97L and the 850 vort which shows the focal point of the mid level vorticity near 12N 43W.

It seems to me that this is one large disorganized area with two vortices within it. Quikscat shows all SW winds along the entire SE side of a huge swath of ocean and likewise NE winds all the way down the other side on the NW.

Would appreciate you comments

Here is the 850 vortLink


There is nothing at 12N 43W. The 850mb vorticity is just guidance for the general area. Visible imagery is much more accurate.
Hey Kman!

For now the wave currently bringing squally weather to islands will likely continue westward during the next few days without any fan fare due some fairly fast westerlies in the vicinity.Once this gets to western caribbean next week thats when things should get a little interesting as the overall enviroment is forcasted to become a bit more conducive for development.

If any development were to occur it will be somewhat of a challenging forcast on were it might end up. Adrian

Morning All,
Anyone from PR or BVI feel the earthquake (6.1) this morning?
Quoting 21N71W:
Morning All,
Anyone from PR or BVI feel the earthquake (6.1) this morning?


Earthquake Details
Magnitude 6.1
Date-Time

* Saturday, October 11, 2008 at 10:40:16 UTC
* Saturday, October 11, 2008 at 06:40:16 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 19.282°N, 64.832°W
Depth 25.8 km (16.0 miles)
Region VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
Distances

* 82 km (51 miles) NW (319°) from Settlement, Anegada, British Virgin Islands
* 95 km (59 miles) NNW (343°) from East End-Long Look, Tortola, British Virgin Islands
* 95 km (59 miles) NNW (346°) from ROAD TOWN, British Virgin Islands
* 155 km (96 miles) NE (51°) from Carolina, PR

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 3.1 km (1.9 miles); depth +/- 22.7 km (14.1 miles)
Parameters Nph=024, Dmin=79.2 km, Rmss=0.33 sec, Gp=238°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=1
Source

* Puerto Rico Seismic Network, University of Puerto Rico

Event ID prp0828504
Hi Adrian

Luckily the Caribbean has been quiet so far in October but I am expecting that we will see something in this area within the next week or so. We have had a foot of rain here in the last 8 days and don't need anymore !
Hi Drak

The vis imagery does strongly suggest two seperate areas but quikscat seems to indicate, at least to me, one large area with two distinct rotations. I don't suppose it matters much which it is as one or the other will likely become dominant.
Back later
Quoting hurricane23:
Hey Kman!

For now the wave currently bringing squally weather to islands will likely continue westward during the next few days without any fan fare due some fairly fast westerlies in the vicinity.Once this gets to western caribbean next week thats when things should get a little interesting as the overall enviroment is forcasted to become a bit more conducive for development.

If any development were to occur it will be somewhat of a challenging forcast on were it might end up. Adrian



The wave in the eastern Caribbean is not the one that is forecasted to develop in the Western Caribbean according to the model guidance. The GFS, and some of the other models show this wave eventually developing as the flow becomes more anticyclonic in the upper levels. The wave moves to the north as an extratropical cyclone drops down and will act to pick up the low and send it out to sea.
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Drak

The vis imagery does strongly suggest two seperate areas but quikscat seems to indicate, at least to me, one large area with two distinct rotations. I don't suppose it matters much which it is as one or the other will likely become dominant.


It does matter because they are at different latitudes. It also matters whether or not the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean develops because if it does that will act to amplify the weakness and potentially cap development in the Western Caribbean.
Signal arrival at Vancouver Island Seismic Stations from M=6.1 Virgin Islands earthquake:
http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/stnsdata/wf/index_e.php?day=11&filter=autoscaled&month=10&stat ion=first&tpl_region=swbc&type=network&year=2008&hour=10#SECTION_1
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Invest ... 97L
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.
Present Satellite picture Invest 97L
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
Present Satellite picture ... BOC
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC ... Eastern Caribbean, PR (Hour 48)
CMC ... Western Caribbean (Hour 72)
CMC 00Z..
Quoting 21N71W:
Morning All,
Anyone from PR or BVI feel the earthquake (6.1) this morning?




Click to enlarge
Orca,

You have got to stop making the "earth quake"! LOL
Quoting Orcasystems:




Click to enlarge
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Orca,

You have got to stop making the "earth quake"! LOL


Umm better there then here :)
I don't know where you got the info on the earthquake but this is the info I found. 3.1
Date-Time Saturday, October 11, 2008 at 08:06:30 UTC
Saturday, October 11, 2008 at 04:06:30 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 18.883°N, 67.901°W
Depth 114.1 km (70.9 miles)
Region DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
Distances 90 km (56 miles) ENE (71°) from Higüey, La Altagracia, Dominican Republic
91 km (57 miles) NW (312°) from Rincón, PR
93 km (58 miles) NW (312°) from Stella, PR
123 km (77 miles) ENE (66°) from La Romana, La Romana, Dominican Republic
201 km (125 miles) WNW (285°) from San Juan, PR

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 6.3 km (3.9 miles); depth +/- 3.8 km (2.4 miles)
Parameters Nph=013, Dmin=95.2 km, Rmss=0.3 sec, Gp=335°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=1
Source Puerto Rico Seismic Network, University of Puerto Rico

Event ID prp0828503

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't know where you got the info on the earthquake but this is the info I found. 3.1
Date-Time Saturday, October 11, 2008 at 08:06:30 UTC
Saturday, October 11, 2008 at 04:06:30 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 18.883N, 67.901W
Depth 114.1 km (70.9 miles)
Region DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
Distances 90 km (56 miles) ENE (71) from Higey, La Altagracia, Dominican Republic
91 km (57 miles) NW (312) from Rincn, PR
93 km (58 miles) NW (312) from Stella, PR
123 km (77 miles) ENE (66) from La Romana, La Romana, Dominican Republic
201 km (125 miles) WNW (285) from San Juan, PR

Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 6.3 km (3.9 miles); depth /- 3.8 km (2.4 miles)
Parameters Nph=013, Dmin=95.2 km, Rmss=0.3 sec, Gp=335,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=1
Source Puerto Rico Seismic Network, University of Puerto Rico

Event ID prp0828503

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.


USGS info 6.1 Quake Link
ORCA...does B.C. have a hockey team?
We have the "hurricanes" sometimes good, sometimes not.... this year doesn't look good!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't know where you got the info on the earthquake but this is the info I found. 3.1


That isn't even the right one. See here (biggest square is the 6.1 quake).
Quoting MissNadia:
ORCA...does B.C. have a hockey team?
We have the "hurricanes" sometimes good, sometimes not.... this year doesn't look good!

Smart*ss.. you mean the Vancouver Canucks
As long as we don't have them here! No earthquakes & let's keep those Trop. Systems out of the GOM for the rest of the season!

YOLO Boarding - a blast!
Quoting Orcasystems:

Smart*ss.. you mean the Vancouver Canucks

I feel sorry for you....come cheer for us!!!!


Star is approximate epicenter

image from USGS Earth Quake Center
Good Morning Mr. Hood
Nice picture!!!!
Quoting MissNadia:
Good Morning Mr. Hood
Nice picture!!!!


Good Morning MissNadia,

Glad you like!
Quoting MissNadia:

I feel sorry for you....come cheer for us!!!!

You! Feel sorry for us?
Cheer for the Hurricanes? thats not a hockey team.. its a weather system that isn't even an event during Hockey season.
so everyone is awake and watching.......morning Orca!
BeachFoxx - you are going to have a blast today!! we just call 'em paddle boards -- I don't think I'd ride a wave with them cause if you get hit that has got to hurt worse then a surfboard. I paddled one that belonged to the lifeguards -- it's cool cause you can go way out and you have this nice platform. Serious arm work workout. what is your weather today - calm or windy??
Morning MissNadia - how's the beach today?
Hey rob
Ocra I feel sorry for anyone that has to live in your cold weather....sorry just MHO
Quoting surfmom:
Morning MissNadia - how's the beach today?
Hey rob

Morning SM, still having problems getting that surfmom_bouncing_buoy virus out of the Caribbean CMC model runs. Its still there. It now shows two systems starting down there in the very near future.
Quoting Orcasystems:

You! Feel sorry for us?
Cheer for the Hurricanes? thats not a hockey team.. its a weather system that isn't even an event during Hockey season.

I give up...maybe and that is a BIG maybe we will see you in the playoffs?
A very early morning to all from Sydney Aust.
I have a question, Why is there no Q,U,X,Y and Z named storms ever in the North Atlantic?
Cheers AussieStorm

P.S I hope there is never the need for a Z named storm, if there was to be one.
Quoting surfmom:
Morning MissNadia - how's the beach today?
Hey rob

Good morning Capt'n Surfmom...ocean is NOT good today !!!!
Hey Surfmom

What've you got going on today? Alway makes me tired just reading it:o)
Congrats to your "young buck" on the goal. We took the 1" of rain for you that day.
Quoting AussieStorm:
A very early morning to all from Sydney Aust.
I have a question, Why is there no Q,U,X,Y and Z named storms ever in the North Atlantic?
Cheers AussieStorm

P.S I hope there is never the need for a Z named storm, if there was to be one.


I think it's because they can't think of enough names for them.
Quoting AussieStorm:
A very early morning to all from Sydney Aust.
I have a question, Why is there no Q,U,X,Y and Z named storms ever in the North Atlantic?
Cheers AussieStorm

P.S I hope there is never the need for a Z named storm, if there was to be one.


Good morning! There probably isn't any Q,U,X,Y and Z named storms because there aren't many names in our area that begin with those letters, so if any needed to be retired in the future years and decades it could be challenging, or even just enough names with those letters to make 6 lists could be a bit challenging.
I am patiently, patiently watching -- yesterday some fluke or the ripple effect from Marco - grabbed a few rides (very puny) off the sandbar. Ease withdrawal symptoms -- but the hunger is still there.
mullet were bountiful, in every curl of the wave you could see tons of mullet. I was getting bumped by fish left and right. The pelicans, normally shy were hanging all around me stuffing their faces.
IMPORTANT REDTIDE ALERT FOR SARASOTA...it's back
Low concentrations reported by New Pass and Captiva Island. redtide@myfwc.com

remember never ever let you dog eat fish that has died from redtide - it is a neurotxin and they can get very, very ill
REDTIDE ALERT!!
561. AussieStorm

'Morning Aussie,

You seem to keep the kind of odd hours I do.
Have a great one!
We nned some of that storm rain here in S. Texas....Go Horns!
Quoting MissNadia:

Good morning Capt'n Surfmom...ocean is NOT good today !!!!


Sandspit.. 100km winds
570. JRRP
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


I think it's because they can't think of enough names for them.


Zeta....
Least I'm not at the wrong beach MissNadia - Folly cam could have made me weep this AM
HI Rob - whew, off from the barn today --we work and have a game tomorrow, Patron/boss will be watching. Got my 12 mile run in early this AM, playing here for a few, then yardwork/housework with a cool off paddle in the gulf as a reward.

The Gulf warmed up again - which surprised me, wondering if the redtide reappearing due to the foul waters from TX starting to reach us
GFS on the 12Z run still doesn't want to develop 97L, but develops the SW Caribbean storm and shows the nontropical system near PR.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Zeta....


Thats Greek Alphabet
566. surfmom

That reminds me of a time when a buddy or mine and I were fishing in Donna Bay (Venice, FL) and suddenly mullet started floating to the surface all over. Thousands of them. You could just go up an scoop up a whole freezer full. 1st thing I thought was red-tide or some other toxin. We threw a couple in the cooler but were kind of afraid of them. As we were packing it up for the night, the mullet fishermen arrived and began raking them in. Heard on the news that night that it was a wierd tide/current that had all the fish dis-oriented. One of the strangest things I ever saw.
re: 552 Quoting RobDaHood

If you use Firefox there is an addon for earthquakes called eQuake Alert!!!
Quoting extreme236:
GFS on the 12Z run still doesn't want to develop 97L, but develops the SW Caribbean storm and shows the nontropical system near PR.


Link?
Wouldn't be surprised if that PR extratropical system forecast to develop could acquire some tropical characteristics...
Quoting stormdude77:


Link?


Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sandspit.. 100km winds

27+33Kts. with rain down here..BUT temp is75F
Quoting AussieStorm:
A very early morning to all from Sydney Aust.
I have a question, Why is there no Q,U,X,Y and Z named storms ever in the North Atlantic?
Cheers AussieStorm

P.S I hope there is never the need for a Z named storm, if there was to be one.


Zeta 2005. LOL.
Quoting extreme236:


Thats Greek Alphabet


Well it could be at the end of every list.... Apparently a few parents are calling children it.
Quoting PcolaDan:
re: 552 Quoting RobDaHood

If you use Firefox there is an addon for earthquakes called eQuake Alert!!!


Quoting PcolaDan:
re: 552 Quoting RobDaHood

If you use Firefox there is an addon for earthquakes called eQuake Alert!!!


Thanks for link. That is probably the biggest plus for firefox, the number of addons available.

I have a PDA phone that has a weather plug-in that pops up a balloon for quake alerts.
ROB< You know Dona Bay!! - you'd be horrified to see what they did to it -- knocked down the little fish shack, bullied the restaurant out of business and basically ruined the Local neighborhood, built a condo that is now in foreclosure and EMPTY like a mausoleum. I love the beauty and shape of that Bay. Mullet are vegetarian fish and are usually caught by netting. They are eaten smoked and were a mainstay of the early pioneers and of course the local Native Americans. About 5 years ago the Japanese decided the roe was a delicacy. We had fisherman pour in from LA, and all parts of the panhandle -- they completely over fished to make a killing on the fish roe. They had hollow boat bottoms and were illegally taking fish. They did manage to decimate the population, along with a red tide that hit the following year for quite some time.
Hey Surfmom,

Only got to stand on board for a minute... Windy, from east. Owner of company is going to take me out on bay first of next week and give me lessons first on calm waters, then the GOM! It was fun just watching the experienced YOLOers! Pics on my blog. : ) Gotta shower & get to meeting! TTYL
Quoting surfmom:
so everyone is awake and watching.......morning Orca!
BeachFoxx - you are going to have a blast today!! we just call 'em paddle boards -- I don't think I'd ride a wave with them cause if you get hit that has got to hurt worse then a surfboard. I paddled one that belonged to the lifeguards -- it's cool cause you can go way out and you have this nice platform. Serious arm work workout. what is your weather today - calm or windy??
Orca,

Is there a kmz file I don't have that does the quake mapping on Google Earth, or is that part of the "Pro Package"?
Quoting RobDaHood:
Orca,

Is there a kmz file I don't have that does the quake mapping on Google Earth, or is that part of the "Pro Package"?


Its an add on.. let me see if I can find the linnk
Here it is
Link
586. surfmom 12:20 PM EDT on October 11, 2008
ROB< You know Dona Bay!!


Spent a lot of time there as a kid. When I was older a friend and I used to take his canoe (with antique pink outboard) out to the island just inside the jetties and fish off the island. We'd take the canoe to the yacht club for lunch and drinks and pull up between the big yachts and the old rich quys would come pouring out to see that engine. They all used to have one just like it and wanted to buy it. Lots of memories in that area. Bad part of growing up in FL is seeing what has happened to it.
Quoting surfmom:
I am patiently, patiently watching -- yesterday some fluke or the ripple effect from Marco - grabbed a few rides (very puny) off the sandbar. Ease withdrawal symptoms -- but the hunger is still there.
mullet were bountiful, in every curl of the wave you could see tons of mullet. I was getting bumped by fish left and right. The pelicans, normally shy were hanging all around me stuffing their faces.
IMPORTANT REDTIDE ALERT FOR SARASOTA...it's back
Low concentrations reported by New Pass and Captiva Island. redtide@myfwc.com

remember never ever let you dog eat fish that has died from redtide - it is a neurotxin and they can get very, very ill
REDTIDE ALERT!!


Very low to medium at Cayo Costa off Pine Island as well. With my allergies I will be putting off the kayak trip until it's gone.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Here it is
Link


Thanks!
new blog
Quoting PcolaDan:
re: 552 Quoting RobDaHood

If you use Firefox there is an addon for earthquakes called eQuake Alert!!!


Thanks!!!