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Norbert pounds Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on October 11, 2008

An area of disturbed weather (97L) midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to slowly organize. Wind shear is a moderate 10-15 knots over the disturbance, and waters are warm, about 29° C. Satellite loops and this morning's QuikSCAT pass show that two circulations have developed, one near 10N 44W, and the other 400 miles to the northeast, near 13N 37W. Both circulations are elongated and disorganized. Top winds were about 35 mph.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 97L.

The forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate 15-20 knot range the next three days, and waters will remain warm, 28-29°C. This should allow 97L to come close to tropical depression status two days from now. The fact that there are two circulations competing for the same energy and moisture will slow down development. The larger circulation near 13N 37W will probably become the dominant one. The UKMET and NOGAPS models develop 97L into a tropical depression by Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The storm is expected to track to the northwest over the open Atlantic, and shouldn't affect any land areas. By Wednesday, most of the models are predicting that an extratropical storm will form just north of Puerto Rico, and this storm will probably weaken 97L by bringing high wind shear.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models continue to forecast the possible development of a tropical depression in the south central Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5-7 days from now. I put the odds of a tropical storm forming in the Caribbean next week at 30%. The potential motion of such a storm is difficult to predict at this time.

Hurricane Norbert pounds Baja
Hurricane Norbert has made landfall on the west coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Norbert was briefly a Category 3 hurricane this morning, but high wind shear has stretched the storm and opened up the eye, weakening Norbert to an upper-end Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Given that no Category 3 hurricane has hit the west coast of Baja since record keeping began in 1949, Norbert may be the strongest hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja (two Category 3 hurricanes have hit the east coast of Baja). Exceptionally warm water temperatures of 1-3°C above average helped Norbert remain strong right up until landfall.

Crossing rugged Baja will probably knock Norbert down a full Category, by about 20-25 mph. The storm will still be a Category 1 hurricane when it makes it second landfall on mainland Mexico north of Los Mochis. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into Norbert this afternoon to see how intense this second Mexican landfall will be. Rainfall amounts in mainland Mexico will be 4-8 inches, and 6-10 inches over Baja. Norbert's remains should bring 1-2 inches of rain to portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Since Norbert is so strong and fast-moving, it may be able to carry an unusual amount of moisture deep into the Midwestern U.S. by Monday. This could lead to flooding problems in Kansas and surrounding states early next week. A similar situation occurred in 1983, when Category 4 Hurricane Tico hit Mexico. Moisture from Tico would up in Oklahoma, where up to 16 inches of rain fell (Figure 2). The resulting flooding caused about $100 million in damage. The latest 5-day rain forecast from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (Figure 3) shows that the moisture from Norbert is expected to trigger heavy rains of up to three inches over Kansas and Nebraska over the next five days. This is probably an underestimate, and rainfall amounts in the 4-6 inch range are likely over Kansas and Nebraska over the coming week.

Links to follow:
Mexican radar
Loreto, Mexico weather
Santa Rosalia, Mexico weather


Figure 2. Total rain amounts from Hurricane Tico of 1983. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 3. Forecast rain amounts for the five-day period ending Thursday, October 16, 2008. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Odile dumping heavy rains on Mexico
Mexico has another storm to be concerned with, Tropical Storm Odile. Satellite estimates indicate Odile has dumped up to six inches of rain on the coast just east of Acapulco. Additional heavy rains of up to eight inches should affect the coast as Odile tracks along the coast, just offshore. The storm's location and intensity are difficult to gauge via infrared satellite loops, and we'll have to wait until the Hurricane Hunters arrive this afternoon before we have a good idea of Odile's strength. Odile is under about 10-15 knots of wind shear, and this shear is forecast to remain in the 15-20 knot range the next 3-5 days. This should allow the storm to gradually intensify into a Category 1 hurricane.

Saturday update on Hurricane Ike relief efforts
I got this very nice email yesterday, giving appreciation for all those who helped out through the portlight.org Hurricane Ike charity effort:


I just wanted to express my sincere gratitude, on behalf of the City of Houston, the Mayor, and our community partners over at TIRR/Memorial Hermann, for all of your involvement in bringing medical supplies and equipment together to help Texans with disabilities affected by Hurricane Ike. I can't tell you how much we all appreciate the fact that you so quickly mobilized and leveraged such a tremendous amount of support to bring these needed items to Houston and other Texas cities.

An email simply doesn't do justice to the generous spirit and initiative that you, Paul Timmons, and your partners took to make this happen, nor to our gratitude. However, I just want you to know that we think about you all in appreciation every single day over here, and there are many who are directly benefiting from your generosity.

By the way, Paul Timmons mentioned that it looks like another shipment of 30-50 wheelchairs can be sent over here. All I can say is wow! Thank you for not forgetting about us, and for realizing that we still have a lot of needs here that we are trying to meet - even 4 weeks after the hurricane.

Again, please accept my sincere thanks. I hope that you have a wonderful
weekend!

Michelle Colvard, MPH
Executive Director
Mayor's Office for People with Disabilities

Contributions to this highly worthy portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting StormJunkie:
Could just be young and learning Ike. Think we have seen similar things over the years. Takes some time of asking the same stuff over and over before some decide to actually go out and look at the backing data.

Then again, maybe it is just to get on your nerves...


I am young and learning.

I'm extremely sorry for bugging you.

I'll try to ask less questions.
If that is the case 123, then spend more time following the links and reading information before you ask questions. I know it's the tedious part, but in the long run it pays off.
503. IKE
Quoting StormJunkie:
Could just be young and learning Ike. Think we have seen similar things over the years. Takes some time of asking the same stuff over and over before some decide to actually go out and look at the backing data.

Then again, maybe it is just to get on your nerves...


He/she is young, or stated so...but, it's the same questions all of the time.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Invest ... 97L
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BETTER ORGANIZED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
Present Satellite picture Invest 97L

Invest ... 98L
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE....IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD.
Present Satellite picture ... Invest 98L

Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC 00Z..
Quoting hurricane23:
KeyWestMan iam commenting on 97/98 which in my view look they might not pose a threat to us.Areas like puerto rico/dominican republic might want to keep an eye on the system.This at the very least could bring some flooding rains to those areas.

Recon is set to investigate 98L.


I understood, thank you! The Western Carib will be carefully watched this week regardless, correct?
I know this has been discussed ad infinitum but I just got back from a trip.

What happened to StormW's blog and is he still around?
Anyone ever answer them Ike? Really asking, been out of the loop the past few weeks as you well know. That said, I do remember seeing the repetitive question issue brought up several times when I have popped in and lurked.

lo, could be tough times ahead, although I think what we will see is an evening and gearing towards fiscal responsibility as opposed to a full on depression. Just my guess though; and I will be the first to admit that very little of all of this makes sense to me.
Looks like a W/NW pattern, could be a US threat afterall.
Lookin' good.


RE: 507. AirTrafficMan
How about ad nauseum ;)

You can find StormW's blog at the usual place. He pops in and out.

512. JRRP
Quoting StormJunkie:
If that is the case 123, then spend more time following the links and reading information before you ask questions. I know it's the tedious part, but in the long run it pays off.


Hey SJ!

And yes, I lurked for 2 years before posting, so I had the idea with some knowledge at least of what's what.

Also means you recognise who to ask, and who not to ask. ;)
Here is how Neverpanics Day is going

Now
28°C
Partly cloudy

* Feels Like: 38
* Wind: E 15km/h

* Relative Humidity: 70%
* Pressure: 101.41 kPa
* Visibility: 11.0 km
* Ceiling: 25000 ft

Tonight when he gets home

6°C

* Feels Like: Freezing my butt off
* Wind: SE 2km/h
* Sunrise: 7:26
* Sunset: 18:24

* Relative Humidity: 93%
* Pressure: 102.80 kPa
* Visibility: 0.0 km
* Ceiling: ft


*Checks in during lunchbreak* Morning folks...

Ok, WHO broke CIMSS??? :p
Recon departing Biloxi tomorrow at 1500Z to look at 98L. Will be onsight from 1900Z to 0000Z at 15.30N/07000W. Callsign is Teal70.

"It ain't over til its over"
Good morning grits!
Quoting BajaALemt:
*Checks in during lunchbreak* Morning folks...

Ok, WHO broke CIMSS??? :p


They did... Link
Dr. Masters has the dress photos...to be posted soon...

KEH and Stormjunkie have seen a sneak peak...

Either of you care to comment?
520. JRRP
we need a new blog
Quoting AirTrafficMan:
I know this has been discussed ad infinitum but I just got back from a trip.

What happened to StormW's blog and is he still around?


That is a good question . StormW was removed as a featured blogger .I have not seen an explanation as to why this happened.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Since 97L has dual circulation, is there a possiblity that the FujiwaraEffect will shove the leading "cyclone" southward into friendlier conditions while sacrificing the trailing "cyclone" northward to higher shear and cooler waters?
Quoting presslord:
Dr. Masters has the dress photos...to be posted soon...

KEH and Stormjunkie have seen a sneak peak...

Either of you care to comment?


Words cannot do the pictures justice

I suggest a drink or two before viewing.

Tell your daughter she did a fine job


Quoting aspectre:
Since 97L has dual circulation, is there a possiblity that the FujiwaraEffect will shove the leading "cyclone" southward into friendlier conditions while sacrificing the trailing "cyclone" northward to higher shear and cooler waters?


The second circulation to its SW is a separate system and could possibly have a chance for development itself. 97L currently has a circulation exposed just NW of the main convective mass, but convectively the organization is fairly good. I would say today is its last chance to become a tropical cyclone.
Looks like both 97L and 98L are getting better organized. Any thoughts or better read on this ?
That blob in the Caribbean sure is flaring up quickly this morning!
RE: Press In A Dress

I suppose we will have to wait until Dr.M quits laughing, before the pictures are posted.

Ohh, and Press - that is quite a figure you have there
*smirk*
Quoting KEHCharleston:


Words cannot do the pictures justice

I suggest a drink or two before viewing.
Why you suggesting the drinks? Not planning on asking him on a date are you?
RE: 531. SWFLDigTek

Oh.. Dig, the suggestion for drinks was for y'all before the viewing. ;)
Press, I greatly admire you willingness to do this - tis a great cause indeed.

And truth be told - I admire your figure !
Rock and Roll



Click to enlarge image
I know someone has already asked but going back as far as I can I can't seem to find a response.
That blob off the east coast, east of the low off of the GAFL coast, it has really blown up. Someone, can't remember who, mentioned it earlier yesterday and they felt it had some potential even though it had yet to be mentioned.
Can someone take a look at it and give their thoughts please?
I suspect an upgrade by NHC for 98L at TWO to a Hight chance, convection is flaring up around Center. Oh yea Nana's birht is aroud the corner folks good entretatining Sunday afternoon and night.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Rock and Roll



Click to enlarge image


That's in the 3-4 magnitude range. Aftershock from the other day?
Quoting CapeObserver:


That's in the 3-4 magnitude range. Aftershock from the other day?

Yes, they had a 6.1 yesterday
Quoting antonio28:
I suspect an upgrade by NHC for 98L at TWO to a Hight chance, convection is flaring up around Center. Oh yea Nana's birht is aroud the corner folks good entretatining Sunday afternoon and night.


We might have Omar, too.
Any educated guesses on which way 98L could go?
Quoting BajaALemt:
*Checks in during lunchbreak* Morning folks...

Ok, WHO broke CIMSS??? :p


"DATA STATUS :
(as of 12 Oct 2008 / 16:21UTC)

Due to a changeover to a new processing machine, some products and storms
in the Storm Coverage section may be temporarily unavailable.
"


Workin' & Lurkin' here...
97L looks poised to develop today, whoaz. And 98L could be within the next few.

Nana and Omar represent!

Whenever I order pizza from my favourite pizza place, every delivery guy I get is Omar, there are like 4 of them. That name is mighty common.
Mine isn't... ish.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE: 531. SWFLDigTek

Oh.. Dig, the suggestion for drinks was for y'all before the viewing. ;)
Sure it was...
RE:535. CapeObserver
I would like to know about this as well. I think this
Radar from So Fla Water Management shows why the concern

537. CapeObserver This area has been active ever since I have been watching earthquakes - and that has been serveral years.
"The proctologist called, they found your head..."

excellent....I'm gonna have to steal that and use it often.....
Anyway, if 97L develops its going to be a very short lived storm...GFDL and HWRF models show dissipation in a couple of days if not sooner. UKMET develops it but keeps it for just a short period of time. Vertical wind shear over it is 30 knots as well, so its questionable whether it could reach TS status, although it only takes a burst of deep convection of the low center to allow for that, but nonetheless high wind shear should prevent significant strengthening.
543. SWFLDigTek 4:37 PM GMT on October 12, 2008 Hide this comment.

Quoting FloridaScuba:


Sounds like a great conversation for you two to have.. in PRIVATE emails.. not the blog
Quoting antonio28:
I suspect an upgrade by NHC for 98L at TWO to a Hight chance, convection is flaring up around Center. Oh yea Nana's birht is aroud the corner folks good entretatining Sunday afternoon and night.


I doubt it will be high probability. It's not even stated as showing signs of organization yet. Just slow development.
press... from many of us here on the upper tx coast.. I want to say THANK YOU! You've done so much.. along with so many others.
Quoting Orcasystems:
543. SWFLDigTek 4:37 PM GMT on October 12, 2008 Hide this comment.

Quoting FloridaScuba:


Sounds like a great conversation for you two to have.. in PRIVATE emails.. not the blog
Thanks for the advice Paw...
But my two cents are already in, no more will be said.
KEH, I know nothing about earthquakes. Is there a fault line or volcanic activity in that area that makes it so active?
txalways....everyone here is making it happen...it's the power of community....
no belly here...I have maintained my girlish figure well into middle age...just wait...you'll see....
Quoting presslord:
no belly here...I have maintained my girlish figure well into middle age...just wait...you'll see....

Well into your middle age maybe.. but what about now.. your past the middle of the hill stuff quite sometime ago.
Quoting Orcasystems:

Paw!! why you arrogant little pup.. now where did I put my belt. Hold on.. umm I think Press was using it to hold in his belly for the pics?
I will take my whipping if need be, but will not retract my statement.
Maybe one day I will be defending you, another person in here I respect...
Quoting presslord:
txalways....everyone here is making it happen...it's the power of community....


I know.. and Texans appreciate it. My neighbors and I have been making weekly trips down to San Leon (about 15 minutes from me) taking water, diapers, formula etc. They are not getting much assistance down there. So we do what we can.
I'll be 50 in March...it's the new "30"....Right?!?!? C'mon....say that's right....Please....
Quoting hurricane23:
98L is predicted to be turned NE by approaching trof which will also take out 97L.

Have a great sunday! Adrian


Islands still exist and there's no possible way that it wont hit them unfortunately.
Quoting presslord:
no belly here...I have maintained my girlish figure well into middle age...just wait...you'll see....
Now THAT scares me...
Quoting presslord:
I'll be 50 in March...it's the new "30"....Right?!?!? C'mon....say that's right....Please....


As a fellow babyboomer, I say a resounding YES!!! And so long as we live to be 100 we still qualify as middle aged!
Quoting presslord:
I'll be 50 in March...it's the new "30"....Right?!?!? C'mon....say that's right....Please....


Oh oh.. umm March what?
Do anyone kmows of any recon mision?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Islands still exist and there's no possible way that it wont hit them unfortunately.


We know that...its not that he said it would be a fish storm. He is well aware that the island areas will be hit.
552. CapeObserver

I am not sure

US Geo Service Earthquake Page

On this page you can see the number of tremors felt in this region.
Over 900 in 2003



NEW BLOG!
I'm told their are some folks in this blog who can intelligently discuss tropical weather. As a lifelong tropical resident and waterfolk, I have interest in opinion, but not personalities. Is that thing 450 miles east of fla. anything worthy of mention? (certainly it is here)
569. IKE
Quoting presslord:
I'll be 50 in March...it's the new "30"....Right?!?!? C'mon....say that's right....Please....


Heck...I just turned 50 in February....I'm older than you(OMG!)!!!!!!
566. KEHCharleston

Thanks. Great site. Looks like that area had 2 3.4's in the past hour. Interesting reading. Shows a fairly significant increase in activity in that area over the past few years.
Canucks - 5 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Flames - 4 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here on Cayman Brac (S Side) "treated" to a literally sizzling lightning storm earlier this morning (Coconut tree 100 yds from house has been fried) and then some gusty squalls and heavy rains - think that there must be something in the make up of the "iron shore" and Bluff that attracts lightning - spectacular vision but scary thnder claps.
Now dull, overcast, occassional thunder boomer and just watching 98L.
Just returned from the "big city" and am amazed at how many people have got a little complacent and consider that the Season is all over - I just keep on remembering Mitch forming on Oct 14/15
Recon mission scheduled for 98L at 1800z on Monday
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOW MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IF NECESSARY...A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

575. KBH
the thunderstorms are finally clearing, as Orca said. Stiff breeze from the E & ESE so I guess 98L is moving thru the C Sea. 97L looks like it changed its mind and moving east.hmm.....