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Norbert Drenching Baja; 90L Moving Through Cape Verde Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:20 PM GMT on September 05, 2014

Hurricane Norbert continues to chug parallel and just offshore from the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds to the coast. Sustained winds as Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula peaked at 32 mph at 7:43 pm Thursday evening before the airport shut for the night, and the airport recorded 7.4 inches (188 mm) of rain in a 24-hour period ending Friday morning. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed that Category 1 Norbert had no eye but some very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. Norbert should be able to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist atmosphere, and moderate wind shear and maintain Category 1 hurricane strength through Saturday morning. By Saturday evening, Norbert will encounter ocean temperatures below 26°C (79 °F), and drier air, which should induce a steady weakening trend. The models all show the core of the hurricane remaining just offshore as it moves northwest parallel to the Baja Peninsula, so heavy rains of 3 - 6" causing flash flooding will be the primary threat from Norbert to Baja. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the hurricane is pulling moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly and from the tropical Eastern Pacific northwards into Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S., and this moisture will be capable of causing flooding rains this weekend in those regions. The heaviest rains in the Southwest U.S. are expected to occur in Southeast New Mexico, where amounts in excess of 3" may fall, due to the assistance of a cold front not related to Hurricane Norbert.

Wunderground member webcamstraveldot has a webcam in Cabo San Lucas that is showing some impressive rough surf today.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of Hurricane Norbert near the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula at 4:25 pm EDT September 4, 2014. At the time, Norbert had top sustained winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Predicted seven-day precipitation amounts for the period ending on Friday, September 12 show a large area of 3+ inches are expected over Southeast New Mexico, thanks to the flow of moist air northwards caused by Hurricane Norbert's circulation and the influence of a weekend cold front. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Tropical wave 90L
A tropical wave (90L) is bringing strong winds and heavy rain showers to the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa on Friday as the wave moves west at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 90L has plenty of spin, but little heavy thunderstorm activity. Conditions are marginal for development, with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, marginal Sea Surface Temperatures of 27°C (81°F), and dry air to the north. One of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation (the GFS) shows development of 90L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 20% and 30%, respectively. The long-range Friday morning runs of the GFS and European ensemble models favored the storm taking a more west-northwesterly track into the open ocean next week, with a low threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. The Atlantic is expected to be dominated by dry, sinking air next week, due to the phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, so I expect that 90L will struggle to develop. The 2 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model showed 90L encountering increasingly dry air over the next five days in the face of moderate wind shear--conditions hostile for development.

Following on the heels of 90L will be a new tropical wave that is expected to push off the coast of Africa on Monday, bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Cape Verde Islands on Monday on Tuesday. Two of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation (the GFS and UKMET) show development of the new wave by Wednesday. The new wave will see similar conditions to 90L, and will struggle with dry air and moderate wind shear.


Figure 3. The "Weather Report From 2050" video from the Japan Broadcasting Corporation imagines a future weather report for Japan with record heat waves and a Super Typhoon.

Weather Reports From 2050
If humanity’s current "business as usual" approach to emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continues, the average temperature of the Earth’s lower atmosphere could rise more than 4°C (7.2°F) by the end of the 21st century. But what does a global average temperature rise really mean? How would we experience it on a daily basis? To find out what could lie in store, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) invited television weather presenters from around the world to imagine a “weather report from the year 2050.” Each day between now and the convening of the key 2014 climate summit in New York City the week of September 21, 2014--when the leaders of the world will assemble to lay out the road map to the crucial December 2015 climate negotiations in Paris--the WMO will release a new "Weather Report From 2050" on their website. Yesterday's video from the Japan Broadcasting Corporation imagined a future for Japan with record heat waves killing 6,500 people annually, the delay of fall colors in Kyoto until Christmas, the destruction of Okinawa's coral reefs due to increasing ocean acidity and temperature, and an increase in the numbers of Category 4 and 5 Super Typhoons hitting Japan. The Weather Channel's "Weather Report From 2050" video will be released on September 10. It's not to be missed!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Too disappointing to see the Atlantic so dry.

But surprisingly we had normal rainfall in august... 4 inches. And about 1.25 inches have already fallen in september.

The island is greener now. That's good!
Quoting 493. TropicalAnalystwx13:

EP, 14, 2014090600, , BEST, 0, 240N, 1126W, 95, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 15, 20, 1008, 175, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,



EDIT: didn't see MA's post..


110 mph or 115 mph?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you didn't happen too fly past kman's office buiding did you


Hmm maybe
(PICTURE REMOVED)
Me gearing up

God I need to cut back on the beer it's making me fat
Lol
Quoting flsky:
Didn't know that. When I walk my dog I go through them all over the place. Disgusting.



When I would go for my day long hikes through the woods I would carry my spider stick. As I walked through the woods; looking most any way but in front of me, I would wave a stick in front of myself to whack away the webs. The culprit spider was usually the brown orb weaver or wolf? spider.
Quoting 491. FOREX:

maybe a CMC quake.


LMAO!....I have not heard any other reports of anything unusual this afternoon. Normally if something like this happens it spreads like wildfire across the island via social media.
looks like we may have a rainy weekend :)
507. FOREX
Quoting 505. Saltydogbwi1:



LMAO!....I have not heard any other reports of anything unusual this afternoon. Normally if something like this happens it spreads like wildfire across the island via social media.
looks like we may have a rainy weekend :)
Well hopefully no more large quakes for you guys. two this week is enough.
Quoting 474. hurricanewatcher61:

Really! more X marks the spot. And the new wave coming off of Africa. NHC needs to give it a rest. We have already seen what's been happening so far this season.
the same thing going to happern to the next tropical wave die out again..
Quoting 503. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm maybe

God I need to cut back on the beer it's making me fat
Lol



WKC..Should I pencil you in with Scott as well tomorrow?..looks you both will be doing some high fiving..


The NHC has Norbert nearing landfall while this GFS prog shows the southern half of California in the right front entrance of a jet and a weak upper low to the west. This ought to be favorable for rain, in theory. We shall see.
Quoting 506. help4u:

The great hoax climate movie cant wait to see that one.'Remember the" earth is a million degrees hot"!ALGORE 2007
\help4u

Quoting 504. QueensWreath:




When I would go for my day long hikes through the woods I would carry my spider stick. As I walked through the woods; looking most any way but in front of me, I would wave a stick in front of myself to whack away the webs. The culprit spider was usually the brown orb weaver or wolf? spider.

I always thought that was only around here. Yep, there already all over my yard, right on schedule. I leave them be to deal with the mosquitos and moths, except when they insist on building across a doorway or path to the garbage bin. They "learn". They're big and interesting to look at, but hardly dangerous, at least the ones I'm dealing with.

Hmm maybe

God I need to cut back on the beer it's making me fat
Lol

Beer don't make you fat, beer makes you hungry! I drink lots of beer and I lost 35lbs in the last year just by following a strict eating routine :)
Quoting ncstorm:


WKC..Should I pencil you in with Scott as well tomorrow?..looks you both will be doing some high fiving..

Huh
515. FOREX
Quoting 514. wunderkidcayman:


Huh

yellow x in the southeast.
Quoting 492. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

back that was nice light show everything off to my se now temp dropped from 84 to 65 in 14 mins nice thanks to mom nature for the cool off happy now




How much rain did it give you?
Quoting 502. pablosyn:



110 mph or 115 mph?

110 mph. Wouldn't be surprised if they went higher at advisory time.
Quoting 516. Jedkins01:


How much rain did it give you?


2" to 5" around here today.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hmm maybe

God I need to cut back on the beer it's making me fat
Lol

Beer don't make you fat, beer makes you hungry! I drink lots of beer and I lost 35lbs in the last year just by following a strict eating routine :)


If you sit with beer plus a full plate of food and sitting in from of a desk for a year it will make you fat

If my former PT instructor was to see me after a year of doing that he would die lol

I need to get back in touch with him see if I can lose 45lbs

Quoting 483. Climate175:

Cicadas are enjoying this Summer warmth for now and are singing songs of goodbye to it, their songs are going to diminish by next week.
My little ring neck snake friend was right, almost the entire state is covered with some form of precipitation right now. Some people say that an old snake can lie, but they have always been honest with me. This snake was just born, so I could not be wrong. Jeff Corwin does not know lesson one about water moccasins, and you will be at a severe disadvantage if you listen to him. I just wish I did not have to work so late now. I like to observe the bats and birds in the mornings and evenings. Watching signs of nature for weather patterns is something I always took for granted, but now I understand that there are no woods left to live in. If you want to catch the cicadas to see what year cycle they are in, just take a free scrap of hard porcelain tile from a flooring store and cut it with a dry saw under an oak tree. Be careful as it always lands on your head, or hand operating the saw. They cling to you with raspy hooks and it can freak you out. Simply grab him, then place him in an official cicada cage.
Quoting FOREX:
yellow x in the southeast.

Ah yeah that
...

I'm just glad that it's starting to look more active
Quoting 520. ncstorm:


LOL. Say it ain't so.
Quoting 516. Jedkins01:



How much rain did it give you?

PWS says 0.93 in
almost an inch still raining lightly with a few heavier bands yet to come
Quoting Jedkins01:

Lol

Quoting 514. wunderkidcayman:


Huh



proof of you flying was what I was referring to..
A video I made back in july 2012.

I never say this, but is that an eye?

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
247 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2014

CAZ095>099-071715-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
247 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

* TIMING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...MAINLY THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT...AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM KERN COUNTY TO KINGS
CANYON.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

Come on Norbert.
Maybe some flooding around E C FL this weekend if this rain continues.

Quoting ncstorm:


proof of you flying was what I was referring to..

Oh yeah lol

Quoting 509. ncstorm:



WKC..Should I pencil you in with Scott as well tomorrow?..looks you both will be doing some high fiving..


Ironically, seeing a 10% yellow X coming was NOT a difficult thing. It's been hinted at on and off for days by multiple models. You should know that of all people. So there really shouldn't be any "high fiving" or "face palming".

It's an area with a very small potential to develop. That's it.

Meanwhile, yet another eye wall is approaching the GA coast.
Quoting 524. StormTrackerScott:



LOL. Say it ain't so.


My NWS is discounting it..but it just showing if the low tracks more east over the water than inland which would change up the forecast..
Another over-hyped wave coming off the coast of Africa bites the dust...

What a season:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located inland over southern Georgia is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Florida, Georgia, and the coastal Atlantic waters. Any
development of this low is expected to be slow to occur during the
next few days while it drifts northeastward close to the coasts of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. After that time,
strong upper-level winds are expected to limit the development
potential.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Significant development of
this system is unlikely due to an unfavorable dry airmass over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Sunday. Environmental conditions would appear to support some
development of this system early next week while it moves to the
west or west-northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brennan
main line well too my se now after these next heavier bands we should be behind the front and into the northern flow of air low tonight is 59

Quoting 529. Grothar:

I never say this, but is that an eye?



No.
Quoting 518. StormTrackerScott:



2" to 5" around here today.


Yeah there were some serious thunderstorms today. Its a weird year in FL, every time this year(which hasn't been much until the past week) there is an east flow, the coverage is lower than normal, but as soon as it switch around to a west flow, the coverage is much higher.

I think its due to the drier than normal tropics, whereas the gulf has had consistently higher moisture and instability. With that being said, it makes sense that on average an airmass advected from the southeast won't be as active as one from the west this summer.

What is aggravating is that not once this summer has a trough or any sort of low pressure moved from southeast to northwest across FL or southwest to northeast from the gulf. Its always been a low just east of FL.

The good news is, unlike the last several times a low has formed near the east coast of FL, this one will be much slower to move northeast due to troughs not being as far southeast as earlier in the summer and a strong ridge.

Also, thankfully, the lack of a strong trough in the southeast like earlier cases will prevent this low from wrapping dry air into FL like the last several times we've seen this northeast coast of FL low develop.

This time there is also a deep moist airmass over the FL panhandle and the northern gulf coast/deep south, so we definitely don't have to worry about another dry airmass being wrapped around the west side of the low.

Still though, you know its a weird summer when not even a single tropical wave has passed over FL all rainy season, something that normally happens at least a few times each summer month. Yet at the same time there is a tropical system that will be impacting CA and AZ, which while it can and does happen, is very rare.

I feel like that while this summer has been drier than usual in parts of FL, its been overachieving when you consider how dry the tropics have been and how no tropical disturbances have impacted FL at all, something that normally happens on even the most inactive season like like last year.


Heck, even the northern gulf coast from the panhandle to Louisiana has had even a disturbance affect the area.
Quoting Grothar:
I never say this, but is that an eye?



Aye


@tornado_dave
Looking south from Tonkawa Oklahoma 7:01 PM 9/5/14
Quoting 533. StormJunkie:



Ironically, seeing a 10% yellow X coming was NOT a difficult thing. It's been hinted at on and off for days by multiple models. You should know that of all people. So there really shouldn't be any "high fiving" or "face palming".

It's an area with a very small potential to develop. That's it.

Meanwhile, yet another eye wall is approaching the GA coast.


SJ, actually I wasnt referring to WKC about the SE low so they wouldn't be high fiving about that..I was just giving them props of their individual shining moments..

but in reference to to the facepalm comment, its correct...if this had been on the other foot it would be dragged out for days by certain bloggers
Quoting 535. Drakoen:

Another over-hyped wave coming off the coast of Africa bites the dust...

What a season:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located inland over southern Georgia is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Florida, Georgia, and the coastal Atlantic waters. Any
development of this low is expected to be slow to occur during the
next few days while it drifts northeastward close to the coasts of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. After that time,
strong upper-level winds are expected to limit the development
potential.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Significant development of
this system is unlikely due to an unfavorable dry airmass over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Sunday. Environmental conditions would appear to support some
development of this system early next week while it moves to the
west or west-northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brennan
Well the first wave actually took the dry air so this one have little of more moist environment meanwhile I believe they put faith in it because models actually show this one developing a little.
Quoting 531. StormTrackerScott:

Maybe some flooding around E C FL this weekend if this rain continues.




For sure, and of course, some spots will locally get much more than this, the WPC tends to overdue rainfall with frontal systems but struggles to represent sea breeze convection totals, as in a week like this, some spots in that 2 inch blob may only get 0.25- 0.50 over the next week while other spots will locally get 5-8 inches.

At my parents house back in Tampa Bay they had 1.50 on wednesday and 2.5 total over the last few days, that's well representative of other areas on the west coast recently, so thy are doing better there rain wise as well.

Locally, we've been missing a lot of the action here in Tallahassee so far with heavy storms going mostly around us, although we did have an epic thunderstorm on Tuesday. But most of the rain still missed me, I got only 0.51 while some gauges just 2 miles south had 2-4 inches.

The good news is, models are keeping PW'S between 2.0 and 2.5 for much of FL including you guys and up here through the next several days, so rain and thunderstorms will be plentiful.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
\help4u



The debate is not over and the IPCC has been reducing its predictions every time they gather for a report.

I say keep the debate going but make sure we dont forget about actually cleaning the planet in the process. You know,spend the larger balance of the dwindling available moneys to do the things we know immediately clean the planet,resulting in a better future for Earths inhabitants.Link


Silt runoff would be a great place to start!

This is a good read.


Link
Quoting 505. Saltydogbwi1:



LMAO!....I have not heard any other reports of anything unusual this afternoon. Normally if something like this happens it spreads like wildfire across the island via social media.
looks like we may have a rainy weekend :)
Despite the ever present threat of a tidal wave, I would try to stay on rocky places whenever possible. Liquefaction is quite real in sandy places. I have seen the pictures from the St Johns quake in Florida. Telephone poles sunk to hard pack, horses and buggy submerged. That was how geologists figured out that the river was a fault crack. I have only walked into quicksand twice, but I almost died, and disappeared both times. Something to think about as you plan your daily travels anyways.
Doppler radar quick-looks from 2:00 PM P-3 flight into
Hurricane Cristobal, 27 August 2014


September 3, 2014
As Hurricane Cristobal picked up its northward motion while passing east of Wilmington, NC a NOAA P-3 collected airborne Doppler radar data to use in initializing and evaluating model guidance (section 1) during an Ocean Winds and Rain experiment (section 4). Included here you see images of the horizontal winds within 300 km of Cristobal sampled from the tail Doppler radar on the P-3 aircraft during the evening of 26 August 2014. These images are at three altitudes (1 km, 3 km, and 6 km) and are a composite of winds from a figure-4 P-3 Doppler pattern around Cristobal. These analyses show that Cristobal had a little more symmetric distribution of precipitation at all altitudes with the bulk of the precipitation beyond 100 km from the center shifted to the west-northwest of the storm. The shift of the precipitation to the north and west of the center was also apparent in satellite imagery suggesting that the extra-tropical transition of Cristobal was beginning. There is a clear indication of a circulation center at all altitudes, with stronger winds 35-40 km southeast of the circulation center at 1-km altitude, rotating around to the south-southeast of the center at 6-km altitude. From 1-6 km altitude the circulation center was tilted 5-10 km to the west indicative of changing horizontal wind shear since the last mission. The rotation of the wind maximum upwind, and the tilt of the center toward the west with altitude are likely caused by the storm interaction with a trough to the north.
Quoting 535. Drakoen:

Another over-hyped wave coming off the coast of Africa bites the dust...

What a season:



We were spoiled from the 90s on into this decade. Only time will tell if it'll be the Canadiens in a dry spell about to break it or in a long Maple Leafs lull.
Norbert 110mph or 115mph?
Quoting 544. QueensWreath:



The debate is not over and the IPCC has been reducing its predictions every time they gather for a report.

I say keep the debate going but make sure we dont forget about actually cleaning the planet in the process. You know,spend the larger balance of the dwindling available moneys to do the things we know immediately clean the planet,resulting in a better future for Earths inhabitants.Link


Silt runoff would be a great place to start!

This is a good read.


Link
the debate will never be over why because outcomes that are expected will likely be totally different from what they expect some maybe less severe or more severe we simply do not know the only thing we do know is there will be changes how big is yet to be seen
Quoting 517. TropicalAnalystwx13:


110 mph. Wouldn't be surprised if they went higher at advisory time.


I agree with u.
Quoting 517. TropicalAnalystwx13:


110 mph. Wouldn't be surprised if they went higher at advisory time.


I agree with u.
Quoting 517. TropicalAnalystwx13:


110 mph. Wouldn't be surprised if they went higher at advisory time.


I agree with you. thank u.
Quoting 521. wunderkidcayman:



If you sit with beer plus a full plate of food and sitting in from of a desk for a year it will make you fat

If my former PT instructor was to see me after a year of doing that he would die lol

I need to get back in touch with him see if I can lose 45lbs




Of Course it will ! I went from 225lbs to 185 lbs in about 15 months, my goal is 175 I'm 5'9"
Nice RAMSDIS product show the amount of dry air in the Central Atlantic and oh look a batch of dry air over northwest Africa that looks like it wants to advect southwestward.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the debate will never be over why because outcomes that are expected will likely be totally different from what they expect some maybe less severe or more severe we simply do not know the only thing we do know is there will be changes how big is yet to be seen



That is a very honest response. Thank you. I just want a cleaner planet and the moneys available to make it so. As in so many of the doings within the World. Its all talk and tax. very little tangible result for the effort and cost.

In my mind there are three culprits. 1.Inefficient Government.
2.Crony capitalists profiting off Gov.
3.The populace being divided and manipulated by the above two.

And with that we should get back to regular weather. Not the politics of it.
Quoting Pallis1:
My little ring neck snake friend was right, almost the entire state is covered with some form of precipitation right now. Some people say that an old snake can lie, but they have always been honest with me. This snake was just born, so I could not be wrong. Jeff Corwin does not know lesson one about water moccasins, and you will be at a severe disadvantage if you listen to him. I just wish I did not have to work so late now. I like to observe the bats and birds in the mornings and evenings. Watching signs of nature for weather patterns is something I always took for granted, but now I understand that there are no woods left to live in. If you want to catch the cicadas to see what year cycle they are in, just take a free scrap of hard porcelain tile from a flooring store and cut it with a dry saw under an oak tree. Be careful as it always lands on your head, or hand operating the saw. They cling to you with raspy hooks and it can freak you out. Simply grab him, then place him in an official cicada cage.
Whatever you're on, maybe you can pass some over this way too...it must be good stuff. :-0
Quoting StormJunkie:


Ironically, seeing a 10% yellow X coming was NOT a difficult thing. It's been hinted at on and off for days by multiple models. You should know that of all people. So there really shouldn't be any "high fiving" or "face palming".

It's an area with a very small potential to develop. That's it.

Meanwhile, yet another eye wall is approaching the GA coast.
Just get some of that rain further west and she can high five with with anyone she likes.
relief is on the way east coast
90L avoiding the dry air..

Quoting sar2401:
Whatever you're on, maybe you can pass some over this way too...it must be good stuff. :-0


What is the Australian Aboriginal term??? Walkabout. Its a good tour and may be quite enlightening. But only make conclusions after the three day tour.
Walk it off...Then put it all together and comment after above process.


But I must admit I like the sentiment. LOL


i saw a eye only for 1/2 hour long
Quoting 560. ncstorm:

90L avoiding the dry air..




sorry but I think the 2nd car got him already lol
Hey, A TS!
Quoting 489. Climate175:

I have not seen any doing that yet.
I have. Lots of them!!!
Quoting unknowncomic:
Hey, A TS!
Just one more reason not to pay attention to early cycle models when there's no actual low.
Quoting 563. Hurricanes101:



sorry but I think the 2nd car got him already lol



Quoting 563. Hurricanes101:



sorry but I think the 2nd car got him already lol


High Pressure off of NC forming sooner and closer than what the models were showing..just a novice here but wouldnt that block anything trying to exit off to the NE?

Quoting QueensWreath:


What is the Australian Aboriginal term??? Walkabout. Its a good tour and may be quite enlightening. But only make conclusions after the three day tour.
Walk it off...Then put it all together and comment after above process.


But I must admit I like the sentiment. LOL
I think it's more like a vision quest. We used to get them all the time in the 80's, when they'd wander off in the woods to be one with the trees and snakes or something. Then they'd get lost and not show up back at the sweat lodge and we'd have to go out look for them. There were a couple of them that had a pretty tenuous grasp of reality when we found them.
The Atlantic is shut down with dry air and ULL. The only possible threat may be in late September/October from the Caribbean.
Quoting 571. ncstorm:

High Pressure off of NC forming sooner and closer than what the models were showing..just a novice here but wouldnt that block anything trying to exit off to the NE?


or the storm hit the northeast coast to
Quoting sar2401:
I think it's more like a vision quest. We used to get them all the time in the 80's, when they'd wander off in the woods to be one with the trees and snakes or something. Then they'd get lost and not show up back at the sweat lodge and we'd have to go out look for them. There were a couple of them that had a pretty tenuous grasp of reality when we found them.


Yup!


Quoting 556. sar2401:

Whatever you're on, maybe you can pass some over this way too...it must be good stuff. :-0
This is just stuff passed on from generation to generation. Even though red ants are an invasive species, they will predict rain every time like a clock. Birds are great at it, but different birds fly uniquely, so you have to know how to observe each species. Most people just think "there goes a hummingbird. Neat!" I think about why he is here. and how long he will stay. Snakes have to smell with their tongue, but they have inner ears. That is how they know. It is kind of like how Ray Charles did not drive much, but he sure could play and sing. I don't do any drugs Sar. Not even aspirin.


HURRICANE NORBERT
Quoting 571. ncstorm:

High Pressure off of NC forming sooner and closer than what the models were showing..just a novice here but wouldnt that block anything trying to exit off to the NE?




No expert myself but I saw an earlier gfs run where the high pressure above it on your map gets stronger and the high near NC becomes influenced by it and moves along to the NE. It is interesting though, if this low gets itself together soon and can stay over water for a bit maybe the OBX will have something to watch out for.
Quoting 545. Pallis1:

Despite the ever present threat of a tidal wave, I would try to stay on rocky places whenever possible. Liquefaction is quite real in sandy places. I have seen the pictures from the St Johns quake in Florida. Telephone poles sunk to hard pack, horses and buggy submerged. That was how geologists figured out that the river was a fault crack. I have only walked into quicksand twice, but I almost died, and disappeared both times. Something to think about as you plan your daily travels anyways.


Ok so far two other friends of mine felt it I imagine there are more on island who did. So that makes at least 4 different people including Stormpetrol and Kman. Still nothing on USGS which is strange considering "something" shook the island strong enough for 4 people in different locations to feel it.
90-L pushing dry air away, but then more is coming in behind it. Lol.
Link
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

The satellite presentation of Norbert has improved dramatically
since the last advisory. A ragged eye is apparent in infrared
imagery surrounded by a ring of cloud tops colder than -70C. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB at 00Z were T5.5/102 kt, and the initial
intensity is set a bit below that value at 95 kt for this advisory
given the very rapid change in the satellite appearance and the
earlier recon data. This recent intensification occurred as Norbert
moved over waters warmer than 29C, and some additional strengthening
is still possible in the next few hours. However, SSTs steadily
decrease along the track going forward, which should result in
gradual weakening beginning by 12 hours. Steadier weakening is
expected beyond 24 hours as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone
moves into a drier and more stable airmass. By 72 hours Norbert is
expected to become post-tropical and then weaken to a remnant low
around day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward by 10-15 kt through 24 hours to account for the current
intensity trend, and is about 5 kt higher than the previous advisory
after that time. This forecast is a little above the intensity
consensus through 36 hours and close to the consensus afterward.

Smoothing through some short-term wobbles, the initial motion
estimate is 320/08. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged,
as Norbert will be steered around the western periphery of a mid-
level ridge centered over the southern United States through 48
hours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a mid-latitude trough
moves into the U.S. West Coast. This should result in a weakening of
the steering currents, leaving the low-level center of Norbert to
drift slowly northward or move erratically at the end of the
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one, but has been adjusted a little to the east to account
for the initial position and motion. This track is close to the
TVCE multi-model consensus through 72 hours, and shows little net
motion after that time.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 24.2N 112.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.9N 113.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 25.6N 114.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 26.5N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 27.3N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 29.0N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

The satellite presentation of Norbert has improved dramatically
since the last advisory. A ragged eye is apparent in infrared
imagery surrounded by a ring of cloud tops colder than -70C. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB at 00Z were T5.5/102 kt, and the initial
intensity is set a bit below that value at 95 kt for this advisory
given the very rapid change in the satellite appearance and the
earlier recon data. This recent intensification occurred as Norbert
moved over waters warmer than 29C, and some additional strengthening
is still possible in the next few hours. However, SSTs steadily
decrease along the track going forward, which should result in
gradual weakening beginning by 12 hours. Steadier weakening is
expected beyond 24 hours as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone
moves into a drier and more stable airmass. By 72 hours Norbert is
expected to become post-tropical and then weaken to a remnant low
around day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward by 10-15 kt through 24 hours to account for the current
intensity trend, and is about 5 kt higher than the previous advisory
after that time. This forecast is a little above the intensity
consensus through 36 hours and close to the consensus afterward.

Smoothing through some short-term wobbles, the initial motion
estimate is 320/08. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged,
as Norbert will be steered around the western periphery of a mid-
level ridge centered over the southern United States through 48
hours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a mid-latitude trough
moves into the U.S. West Coast. This should result in a weakening of
the steering currents, leaving the low-level center of Norbert to
drift slowly northward or move erratically at the end of the
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one, but has been adjusted a little to the east to account
for the initial position and motion. This track is close to the
TVCE multi-model consensus through 72 hours, and shows little net
motion after that time.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 24.2N 112.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.9N 113.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 25.6N 114.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 26.5N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 27.3N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
Let's hope "drift erratically" means "dumps over California's watershed".
Not going there.


need to be watch!! the path of this hurricane

Our Aug/Sep hummingbirds are back. Wondering if they are going to split next week with the approach of the cold air. They are fueling up at the feeders.

Quoting 576. Pallis1:

This is just stuff passed on from generation to generation. Even though red ants are an invasive species, they will predict rain every time like a clock. Birds are great at it, but different birds fly uniquely, so you have to know how to observe each species. Most people just think "there goes a hummingbird. Neat!" I think about why he is here. and how long he will stay. Snakes have to smell with their tongue, but they have inner ears. That is how they know. It is kind of like how Ray Charles did not drive much, but he sure could play and sing. I don't do any drugs Sar. Not even aspirin.


landfall in the west coast!
Quoting 586. Climate175:




Development or not...we're gonna get wet


maybe invest 91L SOON
Not going there.
Looks like flooding is possible from NC and up if that happens.
What have we seen in the last seven years? Here in Wisconsin over 100 inches of snow one year and then record warmth the next, only to be followed by last year's brutal cold. Record tornado outbreaks and then record low seasons. Historic storms (Sandy) and then dead seasons. Extremes is the new name of the game. It's the jet stream, we will be on a yo-yo like schedule of highs and lows, drought and flood, outbreaks and lulls. We want instant gratification, but that's not how nature works. All this, "The Atlantic is in a new multi-decade of decline!" Is just shortsighted emotion. We are in a new age, but it's not one of decline, it's one of polar extremes that the jet stream influences. This is not your Grandfather's jet stream. Welcome to the machine.
Like clockwork, the western Pacific begins to light up like a christmas tree w/ CCKW passage. Consequently, so do the threats for cooler air masses into the east-central US & Rockies as upper level divergence and naturally induced upper level anticyclonic vorticity downstream of invigorated convection in the western Pacific encourages Pacific Jet extension and the genesis of a zonally (east-west) propagating dispersive (i.e. wave speed is dependent upon frequency where in the wave also changes shape over time) wave packet that emanates from near the source of the convectively active phase of the CCKW.


This leads to a formidable jet streak which favors Rossby Wave breaking in the vicinity of the North Pacific/Alaska & a piling up of air on the windward (western) side of the Rockies. This upper level convergence instigates regions of high pressure, also meaning at least in this specific case, that a pattern like this somewhat analogous to the western Pacific typhoon teleconnection, creates the more commonly known +PNA or -EPO teleconnection w/ ridging along & west of the Rockies that's also associated with a substantial trough in east-central North America...


Here's just one good example of this
Quoting 579. Saltydogbwi1:



Ok so far two other friends of mine felt it I imagine there are more on island who did. So that makes at least 4 different people including Stormpetrol and Kman. Still nothing on USGS which is strange considering "something" shook the island strong enough for 4 people in different locations to feel it.
If something were to happen unexpectedly, the highest point is the Bluff at 141 ft? Wells will fluctuate due to hydrostatic pressure changes. How do you obtain your water? I can't remember if Port Royal sunk from a tremor, but it made for a great dive site until the Government got wise about the amount of treasure there. Davy Jones locker Ya'll. Wish everyone the best of luck out there.
Evening everybody. Just got in after a hectic 14-hour day....

Norbert looks like it's trying to make landfall in San Diego after all... or at least Tijuana... lol ...

Quoting 529. Grothar:

I never say this, but is that an eye?


PInhole at that...
Quoting Pallis1:
This is just stuff passed on from generation to generation. Even though red ants are an invasive species, they will predict rain every time like a clock. Birds are great at it, but different birds fly uniquely, so you have to know how to observe each species. Most people just think "there goes a hummingbird. Neat!" I think about why he is here. and how long he will stay. Snakes have to smell with their tongue, but they have inner ears. That is how they know. It is kind of like how Ray Charles did not drive much, but he sure could play and sing. I don't do any drugs Sar. Not even aspirin.
I'm glad to hear that, although aspirin's not a bad thing for helping to avoid cardiovascular problems. You have a kind of stream of consciousness thought pattern that makes it difficult to follow along sometimes. You and the snakes probably have it figured out. It's just a little harder for people.
Thanks Webber that's a lot of great information that you made understandable by novices. Thank you.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 24:04:11 N Lon : 112:48:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 961.0mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.9 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening everybody. Just got in after a hectic 14-hour day....

Norbert looks like it's trying to make landfall in San Diego after all... or at least Tijuana... lol ...

PInhole at that...
What were you doing for 14 hours? I hope you at least overtime. :0( Norbert, as usual for Pacific storms, has put on a good show. It might even make it to cat 3 before it goes into the death spiral. That's when it will be interesting to see where all that moisture ends up.
601. MahFL
Quoting 578. win1gamegiantsplease:



No expert myself but I saw an earlier gfs run where the high pressure above it on your map gets stronger and the high near NC becomes influenced by it and moves along to the NE. It is interesting though, if this low gets itself together soon and can stay over water for a bit maybe the OBX will have something to watch out for.


But it is currently not getting its act together. It's very broad and has not developed a sustained area of deep convection about which it could work down to the surface. Pressures are still high at all the buoys. until that changes, then the area won't take on any sub-tropical characteristics.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
124 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...

.MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AROUND TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
EXCESSIVE BY SUNDAY...AND STEERING CURRENTS WEAK. SO WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
Quoting 587. HaoleboySurfEC:

Our Aug/Sep hummingbirds are back. Wondering if they are going to split next week with the approach of the cold air. They are fueling up at the feeders.


We feed them flowers here in Florida. I trust the maker of the brand, and they are free. If anyone would know when to fly south it would be those little ones. Their hearts are beating hard, and if you think they are dumb try to catch one. The flowers tell them when to leave too.
Quoting 604. Pallis1:

We feed them flowers here in Florida. I trust the maker of the brand, and they are free. If anyone would know when to fly south it would be those little ones. Their hearts are beating hard, and if you think they are dumb try to catch one. The flowers tell them when to leave too.


My cat is dumber than a bag of hammers - yet he seems to catch them and eat them... (Unfortunately)

So, it looks like parts of Michigan have had a storm. Or two. :p
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14E/imag er y/vis0.gif

i see the eye now..
Quoting Pallis1:
If something were to happen unexpectedly, the highest point is the Bluff at 141 ft? Wells will fluctuate due to hydrostatic pressure changes. How do you obtain your water? I can't remember if Port Royal sunk from a tremor, but it made for a great dive site until the Government got wise about the amount of treasure there. Davy Jones locker Ya'll. Wish everyone the best of luck out there.
It was an earthquake - actually, several earthquakes - that caused enough damage that the city was more or less abandoned, although there's still a small town there today. It didn't exactly sink. The city was built on a sand spit, the developers of that day filled in the area of the lagoon with dirt and trash excavated from the city dumps. When the big quake came in 692, the sand and fill liquefied and the buildings located closest the shore and old lagoon sank into the liquefied sand and fill, with some collapsing into the ocean. What the quake started in 1692, several more in the following centuries pretty well finished up. Since parts of Kingston are built on the same type of ground, that city stands about the biggest risk in the Caribbean from quakes. Grand Cayman doesn't have this kind of sandy soil, most of the island being very good limestone bedrock. I'd for sure rather be in Georgetown than Kingston during a big quake.
Quoting 559. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

relief is on the way east coast


Thank You, Thank You and Thank You. :D :D (I want fall weather!)
Quoting 598. DeepSeaRising:

Thanks Webber that's a lot of great information that you made understandable by novices. Thank you.


Sure thing. I think it's fitting to also label myself as a novice just like all of you, as my line of rationale for this statement conforms to the philosophy that the more you learn the more you realize how little you know/once knew. This maybe just a cloaked inscription of increasing wisdom on my part....
This perfectly describes my experience in studying meteorology even in the seemingly infinitesimal amount of time I've done so...

"A man ceases to be a beginner in any given science and becomes a master in that science when he has learned that he is going to be a beginner all his life" -Robin G. Collingwood
Quoting 597. sar2401:

I'm glad to hear that, although aspirin's not a bad thing for helping to avoid cardiovascular problems. You have a kind of stream of consciousness thought pattern that makes it difficult to follow along sometimes. You and the snakes probably have it figured out. It's just a little harder for people.
City people. All cleared up. I feel sorry for most kids now. They don't know how to have fun, and learn about the real world outside. You do at least know about the ring around the moon for prediction, right? Do you know what a Megis stone is?
dvanced Dvorak Technique (v8.1.4) using
NHC forecasts Storm History

===== ADT-Version 8.1.4 =====
----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix
2014SEP06 023000 4.2 979.4 69.8 4.2 5.7 5.9 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -44.46 -72.62 EYE -99 IR 5.7 24.11 112.77 SPRL GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 020000 4.0 982.8 65.0 3.9 4.2 6.3 0.5T/hour ON OFF -19.13 -72.50 EYE/P -99 IR 5.7 24.07 112.81 SPRL GOES15 37.5
2014SEP06 013000 4.1 981.1 67.4 3.8 4.2 5.9 0.5T/hour ON OFF -41.26 -72.53 EYE -99 IR 5.7 24.03 112.74 SPRL GOES15 37.5
2014SEP06 010000 4.1 981.1 67.4 3.7 3.8 3.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF -53.56 -72.12 EMBC N/A 5.7 23.99 112.68 SPRL GOES15 37.6
Pretty soupy air but not much rain after last night, occasional little spits. Nothing coming immediately. This graphic may be too high for me.

Quoting Webberweather53:
Like clockwork, the western Pacific begins to light up like a christmas tree w/ CCKW passage. Consequently, so do the threats for cooler air masses into the east-central US & Rockies as upper level divergence and naturally induced upper level anticyclonic vorticity downstream of invigorated convection in the western Pacific encourages Pacific Jet extension and the genesis of a zonally (east-west) propagating dispersive (i.e. wave speed is dependent upon frequency where in the wave also changes shape over time) wave packet that emanates from near the source of the convectively active phase of the CCKW.


This leads to a formidable jet streak which favors Rossby Wave breaking in the vicinity of the North Pacific/Alaska & a piling up of air on the windward (western) side of the Rockies. This upper level convergence instigates regions of high pressure, also meaning at least in this specific case, that a pattern like this somewhat analogous to the western Pacific typhoon teleconnection, creates the more commonly known +PNA or -EPO teleconnection w/ ridging along & west of the Rockies that's also associated with a substantial trough in east-central North America...


Here's just one good example of this
Where did a 16 year old ever come up with that kind of vocabulary and that kind of scientific reasoning? Seriously, you're amazing. You are either going to burn yourself out by the time you're 25 or go on to be a great scientist. I hope it's the latter.
Quoting 609. Doppler22:


Thank You, Thank You and Thank You. :D :D (I want fall weather!)
nice line of t.storms for late at night!
Rockport, TX (and Fulton) has a hummingbird festival in a couple weeks. The migration south of all the ruby throats should be underway then. Rockport is between Houston and Corpus Christi, closer to Corpus.
Quoting 609. Doppler22:


Thank You, Thank You and Thank You. :D :D (I want fall weather!)


45F degrees out here a the moment and raining...
Quoting 613. DonnieBwkGA:

Pretty soupy air but not much rain after last night, occasional little spits. Nothing coming immediately. This graphic may be too high for me.




i agree. I think we are going to find that most of the heavy precip amounts remain offshore. Except for maybe portions of coastal NC. The models may be over amplifying the rain amounts. Daytime heating and training storms may lead to high accumulations in some areas though.
Hurricane Norbert: Hurricane's Eye Passing Cabo San Lazaro; Flooding Possible in Southwest
Published: Sep 5, 2014, 7:59 PM EDT

Hurricane Norbert is bringing wind and rain to Cabo San Lucas north into Cabo San Lazaro in Baja California, where a tropical storm alerts remain in effect. In fact, a hurricane warning is in effect for the western coast of the Baja Peninsula from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. Tropical storm warnings then extend farther north along the peninsula as well as south of the warning area.

Hurricane Norbert, the ninth hurricane of a busy eastern Pacific hurricane season, will eventually have some peripheral impacts in parts of the Southwest U.S.
Baja California Threat

Hurricane Norbert is currently in an area of above average water temperatures and low wind shear -- different wind speeds and/or directions at different altitudes. Therefore, Norbert is expected to maintain its intensity through Friday night. Norbert is then expected to move into cooler water temperatures and more stable air, which should cause some weakening this weekend.

Norbert's center is unlikely to make landfall, but it is expected to creep very slowly to northwest over the next couple of days, passing close enough to parts of Mexico's Baja Peninsula to produce some high surf, rip currents, gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

For this reason, a hurricane warning is in effect for the southern Baja Peninsula, though it is north of Cabo San Lucas. With that said, Cabo San Lucas is still under a tropical storm warning. Tropical storm watches were extended farther north, but still only include parts of Baja California Sur, the southern of the two Mexican states on the peninsula.

Sustained winds had reached 61 mph at Cabo San Lucas as of 3 a.m. MDT Friday, along with occasional heavy rain. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) are possible in the warning area through Friday evening. At this time, the center of Norbert is expected to make its closest pass to the Baja Peninsula through Friday night.

Bands of heavy rain, local flash flooding, high surf and rip currents will also be threats in the southern half of the Baja peninsula.

Hurricane Norbert dumped heavy rains and prompted evacuations Friday reports the Associated Press, though it was unlikely to make a direct his on land. Rainfall forecasts call for as much as 3 to 6 inches of rain over the southern portions of the Baja Peninsula. Some areas, especially in higher terrain, may receive as much as 10 inches of rain by Saturday.

Baja California Sur state Gov. Marcos Covarrubias urged people in vulnerable areas to evacuate and said travelers should stay off highways as the storm roars past. He said most government services would be closed or restricted, and schools in Los Cabos and La Paz were closed on Friday.

Conditions should improve in Cabo San Lucas this weekend, though some high surf, rip currents, and occasional leftover showers are possible there.
Doesn't cite a source to back any of that up. Sad.
Norbert is continuing to intensify, with a warming eye and cooling eyewall convection. I'd estimate 105kt.

Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Pretty soupy air but not much rain after last night, occasional little spits. Nothing coming immediately. This graphic may be too high for me.

We got nothing over here. All that convection along the coast cut us off from anything that would provide some lift, even though the high was 98 and the humidity was high enough your could swim through it. The front coming down tomorrow will wash out right over me. I'm hoping it provides a little lift so I can some rain tomorrow. If that ULL would move wet about 150 miles I'd probably get some good rains but it looks like it's going to move north. After that, it's right back to heatwave city until the Arctic blast comes here next weekend. Any high below 90 would be really nice.
Quoting 622. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Norbert is continuing to intensify, with a warming eye and cooling eyewall convection. I'd estimate 105kt.




Nerdbert is a bad... little storm.
Quoting 614. sar2401:

Where did a 16 year old ever come up with that kind of vocabulary and that kind of scientific reasoning? Seriously, you're amazing. You are either going to burn yourself out by the time you're 25 or go on to be a great scientist. I hope it's the latter.


Sheesh. Makes me wonder what I've done with my life at 23 lol I knew I should've listened to my dad when he said I should leave the guitar alone.
evere threat advances to New England

Sep .5, 2014 10:46 pm ET
Northeast |
- A stormy Saturday is on tap as a cold front triggers scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the region.
- Thunderstorms could turn severe, with damaging winds from Saturday afternoon through the evening from New England to the Mid-Atlantic region.
- Rather hot and steamy ahead of the front with highs upper 80s to low 90s from southern New England to the Washington, DC area.
- Cooler upper 60s and 70s from western New York to northern New England.
- Sunday will be mainly dry as a much cooler high pressure system overtakes the entire region.
- Sunday highs will be in the 70s to near 80.
- High pressure keeps most areas dry into early next week, but weak low pressure may bring rain to coastal areas Monday and Tuesday.


maybe cat 3 soon with winds 115 mph
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Norbert is continuing to intensify, with a warming eye and cooling eyewall convection. I'd estimate 105kt.

The JSL view gives a real good view of the eye emerging and how deep the convection is over the center. It looks like it's wobbling westward and not gaining latitude while it sits in that warm water. When it finally does weaken, that circulation is going to unwrap and send a tremendous stream of moisture into Mexico, California, and the desert SW. The effects of Norbert may turn out to be the big hurricane story for the United States this year.

Quoting 624. StormJunkie:



Nerdbert is a bad... little storm.

Just one of many storms to smash expectations this season...

Amanda first advisory forecast peak - 55kt
Amanda actual peak - 135kt

Cristina first advisory forecast peak - 70kt
Cristina actual peak - 130kt

Iselle first advisory forecast peak - 70kt
Iselle actual peak - 120kt

Julio first advisory forecast peak - 75kt
Julio actual peak -105kt

Marie first advisory forecast peak - 95kt
Marie actual peak - 140kt

Norbert first advisory forecast peak - 50kt
Norbert actual peak - >95kt
630. SLU
Why are they still running models on 90L

700-500 MB RH 55 53 49 48 45 39 37 36 36 36 36 34 31

SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 7 10 10 16 16 21 23 23 26 21
Webber and TA seem brilliant, Sar seems wise, hurricanes2018 seems like he's mindlessly posting to reach the all time high, Gro is funny, wise, and brilliant, the season is dead or is it a faint, I try to be pithy although sometimes I a'int, El-Nino or not, maybe STS would know, Jeff's blog is great, during this season we hate, maybe if we wait, our needs will be sated, just waiting now for Taz to be berated.
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Sheesh. Makes me wonder what I've done with my life at 23 lol I knew I should've listened to my dad when he said I should leave the guitar alone.
LOL. I'm 68 and have no excuse except for wanting to fool around with radios and model trains. Even though I was a weather geek then, the idea of being able to write like that and actually understand all he wrote is truly mind boggling.
Precip totals through 60hrs. 00z GFS



Precip total through 78hrs 06z GFS...



The trend has the heavy precip staying further and further E. It is a very narrow band of heavy precip right along the coast now. This could easily chalk up to forecast error and miss most of the E coast. Just like it wouldn't take much of a forecast error to get weak STS development. The trend is leaning towards the former though.
Not very impressed

637. Siker
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Webber and TA seem brilliant, Sar seems wise, hurricanes2018 seems like he's mindlessly posting to reach the all time high, Gro is funny, wise, and brilliant, the season is dead or is it a faint, I try to be pithy although sometimes I a'int, El-Nino or not, maybe STS would know, Jeff's blog is great, during this season we hate, maybe if we wait, our needs will be sated, just waiting now for Taz to be berated.


The Wunderrap.
Quoting 614. sar2401:

Where did a 16 year old ever come up with that kind of vocabulary and that kind of scientific reasoning? Seriously, you're amazing. You are either going to burn yourself out by the time you're 25 or go on to be a great scientist. I hope it's the latter.


Lol, thanks, I'm actually 18 now & just started college a little over a week ago @ NC State University.





On Thursday had the pleasure in becoming an "official "storm spotter for the NWS in Raleigh after going through a 4 hour lecture (primarily on severe wx & tornadoes) by Brandon Vincent (his local forecast discussions are stellar BTW...) A lot of the material was review for me, but I did learn about identification of Stratus-Fractus or "Scud" clouds that exist near the base of a variety of cloud types & in such a location, esp. when coupled w/ shelf cloud, may appear as the lowering of a low-level mesocyclone/wall cloud downwind of the rear-flank downdraft (RFD) of a supercell, thus these broken-off & sheared "scud" clouds are a common false alarm for picking out the genesis of a tornado...

Here is some of the amazing footage he captured while storm chasing that he presented...
Link
Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just one of many storms to smash expectations this season...

Amanda first advisory forecast peak - 55kt
Amanda actual peak - 135kt

Cristina first advisory forecast peak - 70kt
Cristina actual peak - 130kt

Iselle first advisory forecast peak - 70kt
Iselle actual peak - 120kt

Julio first advisory forecast peak - 75kt
Julio actual peak -105kt

Marie first advisory forecast peak - 95kt
Marie actual peak - 140kt

Norbert first advisory forecast peak - 50kt
Norbert actual peak - >95kt
Compsred to the Atlantic record of 40%...30%...20%...10%...0%...gone. Over and over again. It's like some kind of sadistic torture. I often wonder if the boys at the NHC read this blog. If they do, I can see them saying to each other in the break room, "I've got it! Let's have three disturbances at once and watch them go nuts! BWAHAhahaha...".
Quoting 639. sar2401:

Compsred to the Atlantic record of 40%...30%...20%...10%...0%...gone. Over and over again. It's like some kind of sadistic torture. I often wonder if the boys at the NHC read this blog. If they do, I can see them saying to each other in the break room, "I've got it! Let's have three disturbances at once and watch them go nuts! BWAHAhahaha...".

Their commentary on Twitter suggests they're just as frustrated with the Atlantic basin as we are. :)
Quoting 616. bappit:

Rockport, TX (and Fulton) has a hummingbird festival in a couple weeks. The migration south of all the ruby throats should be underway then. Rockport is between Houston and Corpus Christi, closer to Corpus.
I am watching the blue crab migration. Depending on where you are, they will move from fresh to salt at a given time, and let you know what time it is for other things. I also like crab cakes made with Dukes Mayo. Here you will find them 25 miles inland. Amazing how the hummingbirds fly to the islands. What elevation do they fly at, 5 feet, or do they get aloft?
Quoting Webberweather53:


Lol, thanks, I'm actually 18 now & just started college a little over a week ago @ NC State University.





On Thursday had the pleasure in becoming an "official "storm spotter for the NWS in Raleigh after going through a 4 hour lecture (primarily on severe wx & tornadoes) by Brandon Vincent (his local forecast discussions are stellar BTW...) A lot of the material was review for me, but I did learn about identification of Stratus-Fractus or "Scud" clouds that exist near the base of a variety of cloud types & in such a location, esp. when coupled w/ shelf cloud, may appear as the lowering of a low-level mesocyclone/wall cloud downwind of the rear-flank downdraft (RFD) of a supercell, thus these broken-off & sheared "scud" clouds are a common false alarm for picking out the genesis of a tornado...

Here is some of the amazing footage he captured while storm chasing that he presented...
Link
Link
OH, 18. Well, that makes more sense, since you've had two more years to absorb every text book on meteorology and physics ever written. :-) That's cool that you became a storm spotter. Now you need to get your ham radio license, since most of the organized spotters are hams and we report on the radio what we see. The NWS in Birmingham also has some hams and a ham shack at the office so we can talk directly to them if we see something important. I imagine it's similar in your neck of the woods. Just watch out for those rain wrapped tornadoes, and don't chase anything you can't see just because it's on radar. Those are the tornadoes that can kill you.
00z GFS total precip up to 84 hours
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Their commentary on Twitter suggests they're just as frustrated with the Atlantic basin as we are. :)
Yeah, but they get to have more fun while they're frustrated. :-)
Quoting 594. Webberweather53:

Like clockwork, the western Pacific begins to light up like a christmas tree w/ CCKW passage. Consequently, so do the threats for cooler air masses into the east-central US & Rockies as upper level divergence and naturally induced upper level anticyclonic vorticity downstream of invigorated convection in the western Pacific encourages Pacific Jet extension and the genesis of a zonally (east-west) propagating dispersive (i.e. wave speed is dependent upon frequency where in the wave also changes shape over time) wave packet that emanates from near the source of the convectively active phase of the CCKW.


This leads to a formidable jet streak which favors Rossby Wave breaking in the vicinity of the North Pacific/Alaska & a piling up of air on the windward (western) side of the Rockies. This upper level convergence instigates regions of high pressure, also meaning at least in this specific case, that a pattern like this somewhat analogous to the western Pacific typhoon teleconnection, creates the more commonly known PNA or -EPO teleconnection w/ ridging along & west of the Rockies that's also associated with a substantial trough in east-central North America...


Here's just one good example of this



I think the recurving typhoons enhancing downstream anticyclonicity (and thus even farther downstream cyclonicity) is only a theoretical hypothesis. It's certainly valid, but first one has to give evidence that such amplification is occurring along each individual case. This was a hot topic on the blog a couple months ago, so I took that time to do some rudimentary research on it. It really doesn't seem like it holds true in every single case. 2002 and 2008, for example, featured substantial western US troughing (not ridging as in the illustration you posted) and east coast ridging in spite of several recurving typhoons. I exempted 2005 because the ridge was probably one of the strongest on record that year.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Precip totals through 60hrs. 00z GFS



Precip total through 78hrs 06z GFS...



The trend has the heavy precip staying further and further E. It is a very narrow band of heavy precip right along the coast now. This could easily chalk up to forecast error and miss most of the E coast. Just like it wouldn't take much of a forecast error to get weak STS development. The trend is leaning towards the former though.
Yep, that's me, right in that whopping half inch zone. And we know the GFS tends to over predict on precipitation. Geez...
Quoting 636. DonnieBwkGA:

Not very impressed


Eh, cheer up. Your time will come. Charly was fixin to hit me on the radar, and I
admit I was getting a bit nervous. It directly impacted my friends 50 miles inland. The Holiday iin was full and the sign fell on the back of the van destroying everything they owned. Those are the good times.
Quoting sar2401:
It was an earthquake - actually, several earthquakes - that caused enough damage that the city was more or less abandoned, although there's still a small town there today. It didn't exactly sink. The city was built on a sand spit, the developers of that day filled in the area of the lagoon with dirt and trash excavated from the city dumps. When the big quake came in 692, the sand and fill liquefied and the buildings located closest the shore and old lagoon sank into the liquefied sand and fill, with some collapsing into the ocean. What the quake started in 1692, several more in the following centuries pretty well finished up. Since parts of Kingston are built on the same type of ground, that city stands about the biggest risk in the Caribbean from quakes. Grand Cayman doesn't have this kind of sandy soil, most of the island being very good limestone bedrock. I'd for sure rather be in Georgetown than Kingston during a big quake.


You're very much correct, sar! The good thing is, most structures built to building codes would be able to withstand up to a M7.0. On the other hand, a simulation done by the mona geoinformatics institute suggests that most government services would have been inundated.

One other thing, we share the Enriquillo-Plantain garden fault with Haiti. It is a strike slip fault, similar to the San Andreas fault in California, so mega thrust quakes are unlikely. But liquefaction would be likely in a major quake. This took place in the 1907 quake.

Giddy House, Port Royal:


As I said earlier, the capital city was Spanish town, prior to England's control. The area has very few seismic faults, though the area is made of alluvial soil. 70% of the island consist of limestone. Plus, 90% of Jamaica's mass.
Quoting 649. nigel20:



You're very much correct, sar! The good thing is, most structures built to building codes would be able to withstand up to a M7.0. On the other hand, a simulation done by the mona geoinformatics institute suggests that most government services would have been inundated.

One other thing, we share the Enriquillo-Plantain garden fault with Haiti. It is a strike slip fault, similar to the San Andreas fault in California, so mega thrust quakes are unlikely. But liquefaction would be likely in a major quake. This took place in the 1907 quake.

Giddy House, Port Royal:


As I said earlier, the capital city was Spanish town, prior to England's control. The area has very few seismic faults, though the area is made of alluvial soil.


I wanna go inside!
That's it... now just take a track into SoCal and give us some rain...

652. JLPR2
It's really a shame 90L doesn't have better conditions to work with, ASCAT caught its eastern half which suggests a well formed LLC.

Quoting 647. sar2401:

Yep, that's me, right in that whopping half inch zone. And we know the GFS tends to over predict on precipitation. Geez...


At this point...I'll be relatively happy if I get a couple of good thunderstorm trains out of it. It's even having a hard time kicking up much off the warm water as diurnal cooling takes effect.

00z GFS got the second wave stronger on this run

Quoting nigel20:


You're very much correct, sar! The good thing is, most structures built to building codes would be able to withstand up to a M7.0. On the other hand, a simulation done by the mona geoinformatics institute suggests that most government services would have been inundated. One other thing, we share the Enriquillo-Plantain garden fault with Haiti. It is a strike slip fault, similar to the San Andreas fault in California, so mega thrust quakes are unlikely. But liquefaction would be likely in a major quake. This took place in the 1907 quake.

Giddy House, Port Royal:


As I said earlier, the capital city was Spanish town, prior to England's control. The area has very few seismic faults, though the area is made of alluvial soil.
I took a tour of Port Royal and saw that building and the remains of a couple of others from the 1907 earthquake. I wish the Jamaican government would spend the money to develop the Port Royal area into an interpretative park. Many people know about the pirates and the doomed city of Port Royal,even if they're not interested in geology. It would be a great place for daytrippers from the cruise ships to get away from Kingston and see a different side of Jamaica. They are missing a real gold mine by letting it lie fallow.
Good night all..sleep is calling me..

144 hours
Quoting 631. DeepSeaRising:

Webber and TA seem brilliant, Sar seems wise, hurricanes2018 seems like he's mindlessly posting to reach the all time high, Gro is funny, wise, and brilliant, the season is dead or is it a faint, I try to be pithy although sometimes I a'int, El-Nino or not, maybe STS would know, Jeff's blog is great, during this season we hate, maybe if we wait, our needs will be sated, just waiting now for Taz to be berated.


Cody Fields is smart, no doubt about that (as are other a few other bloggers here)... My best advice for anyone that wants to get "better" @ understanding meteorology is to read, read, & read (scientific papers, forecast discussions from NWS, NHC, local discussions, even fictional books from time to time etc). Consistent reading raises your IQ, broadens your vocabulary, and stimulates your senses, etc. compared to many (though not all) video games that seem to pinpoint the visual cortex. A large fraction of this advice to read consistently & the reasoning backing it was promulgated by my high school English IV teacher & since then I have taken it to heart...
Meanwhile...The GFS spins up another elusive "Square" cyclone...

Most of the area today got about .5". Patrick AFB was the winner with almost 2".

: 24 HOUR RAINFALL
: HIGH LOW ENDING
: AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS TODAY TODAY 7 PM EST/8 PM EDT
:
.B MLB 0905 E DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ
:
DAB : DAYTONA BEACH INTL ARPT : 87 / 73 / 1.33
FPR : ST LUCIE COUNTY INTL ARPT: 91 / 73 / 0.19
LEE : LEESBURG INTL ARPT : 91 / 75 / 0.87
MLB : MELBOURNE INTL ARPT : 90 / 73 / 0.73
MCO : ORLANDO INTL ARPT : 90 / 73 / 0.55
ORL : ORLANDO EXECUTIVE ARPT : 91 / 74 / 0.40
SFB : ORLANDO SANFORD ARPT : 92 / 75 / 0.37
VRB : VERO BEACH ARPT : 88 / 72 / 0.05
XMR : CAPE CANAVERAL : 90 / 73 / 0.50
TTS : KENNEDY SPACE CENTER : 89 / 72 / M
COF : PATRICK AFB : 88 / 77 / 1.98
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just one of many storms to smash expectations this season...

Amanda first advisory forecast peak - 55kt
Amanda actual peak - 135kt

Cristina first advisory forecast peak - 70kt
Cristina actual peak - 130kt

Iselle first advisory forecast peak - 70kt
Iselle actual peak - 120kt

Julio first advisory forecast peak - 75kt
Julio actual peak -105kt

Marie first advisory forecast peak - 95kt
Marie actual peak - 140kt

Norbert first advisory forecast peak - 50kt
Norbert actual peak - >95kt


Hi Cody! Intensity forecasts continue to be difficult for atmospheric scientists and or computer models. But it shows how dynamic the atmosphere is.

Take an upper air sounding for example, the thermodynamic indices may indicate a stable atmosphere, but we know this can change in many ways....in a short period as well.

I'm thinking about doing meteorology, but funds are limited, I may have done the wrong thing at university level (elec eng). :) My love for the weather has grone exponentially since my first storm, Ivan in 2004.
Quoting 608. sar2401:

It was an earthquake - actually, several earthquakes - that caused enough damage that the city was more or less abandoned, although there's still a small town there today. It didn't exactly sink. The city was built on a sand spit, the developers of that day filled in the area of the lagoon with dirt and trash excavated from the city dumps. When the big quake came in 692, the sand and fill liquefied and the buildings located closest the shore and old lagoon sank into the liquefied sand and fill, with some collapsing into the ocean. What the quake started in 1692, several more in the following centuries pretty well finished up. Since parts of Kingston are built on the same type of ground, that city stands about the biggest risk in the Caribbean from quakes. Grand Cayman doesn't have this kind of sandy soil, most of the island being very good limestone bedrock. I'd for sure rather be in Georgetown than Kingston during a big quake.
You left out the fun part of the story. The town was basically a pirate haven with pirate laws for quite a while. It was a place where all the debauchery of the new world was centered along with international espionage. Divers have found exquisite royal porcelains, fine silver crafted from Europe, and lots of gold and silver taken from Spanish ships. It was at one time the most luxurious place to live in the world. As far as the Caymans go, I would not feel safe on an island in the Caribbean below 500 feet. I would then begin research into the Montserrat effect.
Quoting 660. nigel20:



Hi Cody! Intensity forecasts continue to be difficult for atmospheric scientists and or computer models. But it shows how dynamic the atmosphere is.

Take an upper air sounding for example, the thermodynamic indices may indicate a stable atmosphere, but we know this can change in many ways....in a short period as well.

I'm thinking about doing meteorology, but funds are limited, I may have done the wrong thing at university level (elec eng). :) My love for the weather has grone exponentially since my first storm, Ivan in 2004.


Ahh, come on. Electrical engineering is pretty awesome. Just don't be a jackwagon and design things with fault messages that take the Rosetta Stone to interpret.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I wanna go inside!

You can visit anytime, it has a rich history. It was a pirate haven, it was given the moniker "wickedest city".
Quoting StormJunkie:


At this point...I'll be relatively happy if I get a couple of good thunderstorm trains out of it. It's even having a hard time kicking up much off the warm water as diurnal cooling takes effect.

It did good in Florida today though. It kicked off a nice wave of storms that went from east to west across the state. The combination of the Florida convection and Georgia convection cut me off completely. As long as that thing sits there, I'm doomed for getting any rain. We'll see what happens when the front gets down here but it looks like it won't have any push this far south, and won't get close enough to pick up the low and move it further offshore. It seems like any chance of tropical development is very small unless the low can get some deep convection and move at least partially offshore.
Quoting luvtogolf:
Most of the area today got about .5". Patrick AFB was the winner with almost 2".

: 24 HOUR RAINFALL
: HIGH LOW ENDING
: AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS TODAY TODAY 7 PM EST/8 PM EDT
:
.B MLB 0905 E DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ
:
DAB : DAYTONA BEACH INTL ARPT : 87 / 73 / 1.33
FPR : ST LUCIE COUNTY INTL ARPT: 91 / 73 / 0.19
LEE : LEESBURG INTL ARPT : 91 / 75 / 0.87
MLB : MELBOURNE INTL ARPT : 90 / 73 / 0.73
MCO : ORLANDO INTL ARPT : 90 / 73 / 0.55
ORL : ORLANDO EXECUTIVE ARPT : 91 / 74 / 0.40
SFB : ORLANDO SANFORD ARPT : 92 / 75 / 0.37
VRB : VERO BEACH ARPT : 88 / 72 / 0.05
XMR : CAPE CANAVERAL : 90 / 73 / 0.50
TTS : KENNEDY SPACE CENTER : 89 / 72 / M
COF : PATRICK AFB : 88 / 77 / 1.98
Well, those are the "official" totals. I'm sure the STS Weather Center has a much different story.
Quoting 645. KoritheMan:



I think the recurving typhoons enhancing downstream anticyclonicity (and thus even farther downstream cyclonicity) is only a theoretical hypothesis. It's certainly valid, but first one has to give evidence that such amplification is occurring along each individual case. This was a hot topic on the blog a couple months ago, so I took that time to do some rudimentary research on it. It really doesn't seem like it holds true in every single case. 2002 and 2008, for example, featured substantial western US troughing (not ridging as in the illustration you posted) and east coast ridging in spite of several recurving typhoons. I exempted 2005 because the ridge was probably one of the strongest on record that year.


If you look @ the time stamp on this image it is from October when the jet is naturally highly variable & in a phase of rapid evolution towards it's quasi-statically stable winter state, and the animation doesn't fully envelope the entire process of the typhoon teleconnection as the jet streak is only inching into western North America at the end of the animation, hence that's why the Western Pacific typhoon teleconnection has a grace period of approximately 6-10 days, and about 6-10 days after the dual typhoon recurve of Francisco and Lekima that occurred on October 25-26, 2013 (as part of the abnormally active October the western Pacific went through last yr, which likely led to the intraseasonal enhancement of the downwelling phase of the equatorial Kelvin Wave that was pushing through at that time) a trough, as advertised was centered in the east-central US.

Quoting sar2401:
I took a tour of Port Royal and saw that building and the remains of a couple of others from the 1907 earthquake. I wish the Jamaican government would spend the money to develop the Port Royal area into an interpretative park. Many people know about the pirates and the doomed city of Port Royal,even if they're not interested in geology. It would be a great place for daytrippers from the cruise ships to get away from Kingston and see a different side of Jamaica. They are missing a real gold mine by letting it lie fallow.


Agreed. It would provide a significant economic boost to downtown Kingston. There signs that some redevelopment may take place, but we all know about bureaucratic processes in developing states. :)
Agreed SAR, very small is the key word. Only way I see it happening is if some how a dominant low can establish itself just off shore...That most likely would occur during the diurnal cooling hours as convection will shift back on shore through the morning/afternoon hours.

Not looking good for the system at any rate.
Quoting 665. sar2401:

Well, those are the "official" totals. I'm sure the STS Weather Center has a much different story.


5"
Quoting 642. sar2401:

OH, 18. Well, that makes more sense, since you've had two more years to absorb every text book on meteorology and physics ever written. :-) That's cool that you became a storm spotter. Now you need to get your ham radio license, since most of the organized spotters are hams and we report on the radio what we see. The NWS in Birmingham also has some hams and a ham shack at the office so we can talk directly to them if we see something important. I imagine it's similar in your neck of the woods. Just watch out for those rain wrapped tornadoes, and don't chase anything you can't see just because it's on radar. Those are the tornadoes that can kill you.


Yeah, I'm personally not a huge fan of chasing tornadoes (though it sounds like fun), I prefer the persistent, relatively more predictable variance of the associated wind & rain of a hurricane, but that's just my personal preference...
Quoting 670. Webberweather53:



Yeah, I'm personally not a huge fan of chasing tornadoes (though it sounds like fun), I prefer the persistent, relatively more predictable variance of the associated wind & rain of a hurricane, but that's just my personal preference...


Could not agree more. See it coming. Prep for it based on quadrant, location, etc. Then wait it out safely. Tornado's...way to unpredictable.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Ahh, come on. Electrical engineering is pretty awesome. Just don't be a jackwagon and design things with fault messages that take the Rosetta Stone to interpret.


True, it's just the love of the weather though. But It's never too late to do what you love either, If the opportunity arises, I would definitely take up atmospheric science.
Norbert has to be a major hurricane...look at that pinhole eye
676. Genex
Looking back at one of the earlier forecast maps for Norbert, it was supposed to be a 75 mph Tropical Storm by now instead of a 110 mph Cat. 2.
With the way the Atl has gone this year....Just let me say; The STS forecast center better have it right. I'm expecting a couple of 6' snowstorms, and at lease 1 ice storm this winter based on the rhetoric they've been using. If it doesn't come to fruition....10 fold is all I have to say.
Quoting 676. Genex:

Looking back at one of the earlier forecast maps for Norbert, it was supposed to be a 75 mph Tropical Storm by now instead of a 110 mph Cat. 2.


Great first comment
Quoting 667. nigel20:



Agreed. It would provide a significant economic boost to downtown Kingston. There signs that some redevelopment may take place, but we all know about bureaucratic processes in developing states. :)
From what my treasure hunting buddies say it is so polluted you could contract a life ending disease now. Water visibility definitely down. The gov will put you in a wretched prison for an in-definitive time for thinking about finding so much as a coke bottle. It is not cool like the 70's. I am not holding my breath. If I have the time I am looking for Black Caesar's cache. Most guys are looking on places that ... well, I do not want to divulge too much, but places that were there, are not there anymore. Weather history is important in more ways than one.
Quoting 673. nigel20:



True, it's just the love of the weather though. But It's never too late to do what you love either, If the opportunity arises, I would definitely take up atmospheric science.


If it's truly what you want...Make the opportunity. I'm not an engineer; but I am responsible for keeping 250 robots/CNC machines running. Some less than a year old and shiny. Some 20 years old and far from shiny. Challenging and I enjoy it Which says a lot. Only other job I would rather have would to be a day to day wire router for JPL. Not as much overall system understanding, not as much trouble shooting....But I would be surrounded by massive amount of genius. Anyway, it's a trade I'll take when I can get it. But will also miss the current job of trouble shooting high tech equip as well as obsolete quip.
Quoting Pallis1:
From what my treasure hunting buddies say it is so polluted you could contract a life ending disease now. Water visibility definitely down. The gov will put you in a wretched prison for an in-definitive time for thinking about finding so much as a coke bottle. It is not cool like the 70's. I am not holding my breath. If I have the time I am looking for Black Caesar's cache. Most guys are looking on places that ... well, I do not want to divulge too much, but places that were there, are not there anymore. Weather history is important in more ways than one.


Yes, the harbour side is polluted, largely because of the Caribbean's largest container port (2.8 million TEUs).

Caribbean sea side is relatively clean though. While there are challenges, heritage tourism is still viable.
Looks like some are breaking out the thesaurus; some of the recent posts are so verbose.
Quoting 682. Drakoen:

Looks like some are breaking out the thesaurus; some of the recent posts are so verbose.


The smarter you try and sound the less you know about a subject.
Quoting 682. Drakoen:

Looks like some are breaking out the thesaurus; some of the recent posts are so verbose.


Sorry Drak. I'll dumb it down for you....In about 15 min when i hit the sack....Ohhh, wait....that comment wasn't directed at me. ;-)
Quoting 683. VAbeachhurricanes:



The smarter you try and sound the less you know about a subject.


Exactly. I've learned over the years to dial back the meteorology jargon unless it's necessary.
Quoting StormJunkie:
With the way the Atl has gone this year....Just let me say; The STS forecast center better have it right. I'm expecting a couple of 6' snowstorms, and at lease 1 ice storm this winter based on the rhetoric they've been using. If it doesn't come to fruition....10 fold is all I have to say.
I'll meet you halfway and we can go beat him up. :-)

I'm really looking forward to winter though...sort of. Last winter was really brutal for South Alabama. A half inch of ice below 3 inches of snow is just not something we can handle, so the entire town shut down. We didn't have any extensive power loss but the country declared a state of emergency after accidents and abandoned cars blocked the roads and ordered everyone off the street. I have a 4WD vehicle and could get though most of the problem areas but it really didn't matter, since nothing was open. It stayed like that for two days and a night with the temperature never rising above 30 and a low of 10 and 12 degrees. One more day and there would have been some real problems. Our RACES team was already organizing our 4WD vehicles to transport nurses and doctors to and from the hospital and to assist the Meals on Wheels folks to get some meals out to their clients. Luckily, Day 3 dawned sunny and the ice and snow started to melt. If this El Nino really is strong and we get a 3 or 4 day version of last winter, it's not going to be fun. You don't realize how important just getting people and things where they need to go is until you start planning for it.
Sept 6, near the peak of the season. The Atl holds a junk low, trash invest, weakling TUTT, and plenty of rubbish dry, subsiding air.
Quoting OceanMoan:


??!!??
You're confused about the idea guys would have liked to be pirates? It's a fantasy thing, not that we actually approve of that kind of behavior. I hope I don't keelhauled for that.
689. Genex
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Great first comment


Thanks :) I'm located in Berkeley, aprox 730 miles from the outer bands. I'm really aware of our drought situation, so I'm keeping a hawk's eye on this storm.

In other news, the Pacific Northwest has been surprisingly clear of rain for the past several days.
Quoting 688. sar2401:

You're confused about the idea guys would have liked to be pirates? It's a fantasy thing, not that we actually approve of that kind of behavior. I hope I don't keelhauled for that.


I think he's tying to say that "wouldn't it be nice to live in a time when that was status quot."
I'm going to bed...And gonna hope something miraculous happens with this over night.




Night all
Quoting nigel20:


Yes, the harbour side is polluted, largely because of the Caribbean's largest container port (2.8 million TEUs).

Caribbean sea side is relatively clean though. While there are challenges, heritage tourism is still viable.
It's very viable. The fort is there and in pretty good shape. The modern Port Royal is a little rough around edges but it could be cleaned up. Even just a waking tour with some multimedia views of what the area looked like in 1692 would be fabulous. The water around Port Royal was nowhere near as bad as what I had heard. I was able to see two eagle rays swim by the ferry dock in about 20 feet of water. The government has had on and off plans for years to develop the area as a nature reserve and park and nothing has come of it. I'd venture a guess half of all cruise ship passengers would go to see a well-done Port Royal park....and that may be the problem. It was pretty clear to me that the downtown merchants weren't in favor of anything that would get the tourists out of downtown and doing anything but shopping.
Quoting StormJunkie:
I'm going to bed...And gonna hope something miraculous happens with this over night.




Night all
GN, SJ. I expect there will be a miracle, just maybe not what you want. :-)
Quoting 691. StormJunkie:

I'm going to bed...And gonna hope something miraculous happens with this over night.




Night all



With you storm ... would like to take the crayons away from the NHC btw (regarding the current 5 day graphic), but nevertheless they do a great service to us all.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


It was all fun and games until one got bludgeoned to death, planked, scurvied, sword to the stomach, shot in the face, buried to the neck until high tide, or forced through a day at WU with no storms in the middle of hurricane season. Sounds good, reality not so much.
Ah, every profession has some downsides. Look at it this way. Life for the peasants wasn't too good anywhere in 1692. At least being a pirate meant you had the chance to earn some real money and retire on a farm somewhere. I just think the idea of being one of the swashbuckling pirates of the main appeals to the 12 year old in all of us.

With that, I'm going to bed before I get in any more trouble. :-) See you all later today.
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

...NORBERT BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 113.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
Quoting sar2401:
It's very viable. The fort is there and in pretty good shape. The modern Port Royal is a little rough around edges but it could be cleaned up. Even just a waking tour with some multimedia views of what the area looked like in 1692 would be fabulous. The water around Port Royal was nowhere near as bad as what I had heard. I was able to see two eagle rays swim by the ferry dock in about 20 feet of water. The government has had on and off plans for years to develop the area as a nature reserve and park and nothing has come of it. I'd venture a guess half of all cruise ship passengers would go to see a well-done Port Royal park....and that may be the problem. It was pretty clear to me that the downtown merchants weren't in favor of anything that would get the tourists out of downtown and doing anything but shopping.


It's very difficult to disagree with you, as you sure know your facts. :)

The tourism enhancement fund is well "funded", they'll be providing funds to develop resort areas, Port Royal included. Link

Hopefully this, and other plans will come to fruition.
699. Genex
Norbert @ 115 mph, now a cat 3 major hurricane.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+sh tml/060551.shtml

Quoting 666. Webberweather53:



If you look @ the time stamp on this image it is from October when the jet is naturally highly variable & in a phase of rapid evolution towards it's quasi-statically stable winter state, and the animation doesn't fully envelope the entire process of the typhoon teleconnection as the jet streak is only inching into western North America at the end of the animation, hence that's why the Western Pacific typhoon teleconnection has a grace period of approximately 6-10 days, and about 6-10 days after the dual typhoon recurve of Francisco and Lekima that occurred on October 25-26, 2013 (as part of the abnormally active October the western Pacific went through last yr, which likely led to the intraseasonal enhancement of the downwelling phase of the equatorial Kelvin Wave that was pushing through at that time) a trough, as advertised was centered in the east-central US.




Of course. All of that is obvious.

What I'm saying is you have to take it on a case by case basis. Recurving typhoons breed downstream teleconnections is a very broad generalization that doesn't appear to have universal application.
Norbert a Cat 3. Wow. That wasn't expected.
702. JLPR2
Judging by vort maps 90L is a tiny itty bit better defined; the 850mb level showing the most improvement.

now:


-3hrs:


Well, one can dream... XD
right now invest 90L Moving wnw at 14 mph.
Quoting 702. JLPR2:

Judging by vort maps 90L is a tiny itty bit better defined; the 850mb level showing the most improvement.

now:


-3hrs:


Well, one can dream... XD


Stop.
Quoting 606. Doppler22:


So, it looks like parts of Michigan have had a storm. Or two. :p
Hit my area of Metro Detroit again. Have numerous tree limbs down, several power lines down, a couple storm-related fires, and at least one large sign damaged. Will be looking at some more of the damage later today.
Had a highly unstable, but weakly sheared environment. The 18z Detroit sounding was pretty impressive, especially for September. Most of the severe weather was for damaging winds, as conditions weren't as favorable for large hail or tornadoes. DTE Reports that at least 350,000 customers are without power in their jurisdiction, with tens of thousands more in the western part of the state.


The SPC has the Southern Great Lakes, once again, under the risk of severe weather for next Wednesday. Not sure I actually want it this time.
Yeah, they hit up our butterfly bushes, but there's not much in the way of flowers at this time of year. It will be interesting to see if they stick around next week or leave with the approach of the cold air.

Quoting 604. Pallis1:

We feed them flowers here in Florida. I trust the maker of the brand, and they are free. If anyone would know when to fly south it would be those little ones. Their hearts are beating hard, and if you think they are dumb try to catch one. The flowers tell them when to leave too.
good morning everyone!!
how is invest 90L doing this morning




invest 90L
Quoting 701. BayFog:

Norbert a Cat 3. Wow. That wasn't expected.
Norbert continued to rapidly intensify through about 06Z. Since
then, the hurricane appears to have peaked in intensity, with the
eye becoming less distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall
becoming asymmetric.
 90L downsteam possibilities
Quoting 713. islander101010:

 90L downsteam possibilities
Showing a little life this morning. If it survives next 5 days, should get interesting.

Quoting 713. islander101010:

 90L downsteam possibilities
Quoting 716. HaoleboySurfEC:

Showing a little life this morning. If it survives next 5 days, should get interesting.



Yeah it is!
Indeed 90L is still alive.See the loop.

Link
Dangerous flooding ongoing in N FL this morning. Could be well over 10" in some areas today.

Quoting 719. StormTrackerScott:

Dangerous flooding ongoing in N FL this morning. Could be well over 10" in some areas today.


something spinning there to
its POURING and i mean pouring here in Castle Hayne NC ( suburb of Wilmington)
Quoting 720. hurricanes2018:
something spinning there to


The flooding that is going to occur across N FL today will be similar to TS Debby when some areas saw feet of rain.
its that coastal low. those things can bring torrential rains regardless of whether they organize into a storm or not.
much cooler weather4 coming soon for the northeast!!! StormTrackerScott
Quoting 722. StormTrackerScott:



The flooding that is going to occur across N FL today will be similar to TS Debby when some areas saw feet of rain.


its coming soon!! the much cooler weather
Quoting 723. K8eCane:
its that coastal low. those things can bring torrential rains regardless of whether they organize into a storm or not.


That's the low that came into GA 2 days ago and I was could all kinds of names for saying it was a low by many on here. Now it is going to produce some incredible rainfall across N FL today. Some areas already are nearing 10" this morning.
Many on these blog can take their crow now. How do you like crispy or grilled?
not a gambler but it might be a good bet that we see a major in the atlantic within a wks time rapper scott? crows to good for that character. fried vulture.?
90L...

730. JRRP
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The flooding that is going to occur across N FL today will be similar to TS Debby when some areas saw feet of rain.


So I see the NHC finally put a yellow X over the north Florida Low.
If the low would just move to the east and get over water it would be developing right now. But if it continues over land, not much hope for development.

Quoting 722. StormTrackerScott:



The flooding that is going to occur across N FL today will be similar to TS Debby when some areas saw feet of rain.


Could the Gator game be in doubt for the 2nd week in a row???? Doesn't look good.
Quoting 727. StormTrackerScott:

Many on these blog can take their crow now. How do you like crispy or grilled?



If I have to eat it I prefer imaginary. Do you know how to fix that lol?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure near the coast of Georgia continues to
produce disorganized cloudiness and showers, mainly over the
Atlantic coastal waters. Development of this system appears
unlikely while it drifts northeastward over the southeastern United
States during the next couple of days. After that time, this
system could merge with a frontal zone over the western Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has increased
and become a little better organized this morning. However,
significant development of this system is not expected due to a
unfavorable dry air mass that prevails over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Sunday. Environmental conditions could support slow
development of this system early next week while it moves toward the
west or west-northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
I see nothing that looks like development on the coastal low, but i sure do see a lot of rain. Looks like a netflix day.

Note: do not watch Septic Man unless you want to be sick
Morning all


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
747 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT STALL OVER THE
AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
I HAD TO RAISE POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WE
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ABOUT 1/2 INCH AT CHS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THERE IS MORE LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO I WENT WITH 80 POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE
SC COASTAL COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...WE ARE NOW PAST HIGH TIDE IN
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...SO WE HAVE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE WITH FRESH
WATER FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE CITY. STILL...WITH ON AND OFF HEAVY
RAIN FOR A WHILE...WE WILL KEEP A WARY EYE ON THE SITUATION.

TODAY...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE GYRE WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL SMALL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
NOTED...ONE WEST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...ANOTHER NORTHWEST OF
SAVANNAH WITH A TERTIARY CENTER LURKING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN FLANKS
OF THE TUTT AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOCUS INLAND AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES AND AN ILL-DEFINED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES
HOLD. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE COUPLED WITH PWATS APPROACHING
2.25-2.40 INCHES...LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND ADEQUATE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL YIELD NUMEROUS IF NOT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

AS THE TUTT MOVES NORTH...INLAND AREAS WILL BECOME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 925-850 HPA COL...SO THE STEERING FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS
JUST OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL SUPPORT
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
PROBLEMS AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING
OCCURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CONSIDERED FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONES INCLUDING
THE CHARLESTON TRI- COUNTY AREA...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
ANY FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED...
UNLESS LONG-DURATION HEAVY RAINS DEVELOP RIGHT OVER DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 WELL INLAND TO
THE MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS WHERE INLAND CONVECTION QUICKLY DIES OUT AFTER SUNSET AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY RE-FIRES OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE SURFACE
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE LOWER-MIDDLE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
ESPECIALLY THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA. FAR INLAND AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON HOW FAR
INLAND ANY RAINFALL CAN PROPAGATE. POPS EARLY MORNING SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE 50-60 PERCENT ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH
20-40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE...LOWEST ROUGHLY WEST OF I-95. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE WEAK LOW WILL BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND
ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE DAY. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH DEEPENING THE LOW...IF YOU CALL A 1010 MB LOW DEEPENING...BUT
HAVE RULED THAT OUT FOR NOW AS THE CENTER SHOULD BE EITHER ALONG THE
COAST OR OVER LAND AND NOT OVER WATER. SHOULD THE LOW DRIFT FURTHER
OFFSHORE...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE...ESPECIALLY TO
THE WIND FORECAST.
Norbert's sudden and unexpected reach to major hurricane status has upped the epic 2014 EPAC season's major hurricane count to seven as of September 6th. We're just three more from tying, and four more from breaking, the record set by 1992 for most major hurricanes in a year.
Quoting K8eCane:
I see nothing that looks like development on the coastal low, but i sure do see a lot of rain. Looks like a netflix day.

Note: do not watch Septic Man unless you want to be sick


Not with it sitting over land. As I mentioned, if the low was further to the east and sitting over water, it would be a different story.

I was expecting the low to form just off the Florida coast. That's why I was thinking it would develop.
Even over land, the low has a nice spin to it and has been getting more developed. Most likely due to the availability of moisture from the Atlantic and GOM not far away.
Good Morning all..


If you look ahead of 90-L it is just light dry air, not as heavy as earlier this year.
Saharan Air Layer
It just has to make it through that light dry air, then make it through the wind shear, which is where the problem comes in...
Wind Shear
Quoting 739. CybrTeddy:

Norbert's sudden and unexpected reach to major hurricane status has upped the epic 2014 EPAC season's major hurricane count to seven as of September 6th. We're just three more from tying, and four more from breaking, the record set by 1992 for most major hurricanes in a year.

Wow!
We need this low to get over water.
Quoting 744. Sfloridacat5:

We need this low to get over water.



its situated perfectly to pull in moisture from gulf and atlantic


its look like a T.D moving up the coast with the heavy rain moving up the east coast
Looks like a lot of rain again for Central Florida. Had some good storms yesterday and into the evening hours.
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
801 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

FLC023-121-061330-
/O.CON.KJAX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140906T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COLUMBIA FL-SUWANNEE FL-
801 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SUWANNEE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 756 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COLUMBIA COUNTY...AS WELL AS
EASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA...AND DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE OCCURRED IN
LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CITY SINCE 4 AM. DOPPLER RADAR

ESTIMATES WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN
THE WARNED AREA SINCE 4 AM.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WINFIELD...
WATERTOWN...LULU...LAKE CITY...WELLBORN AND FIVE POINTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 800-499-1594 TO REPORT FLOODING.

746 no its just a rain pumping machine
Quoting K8eCane:


its situated perfectly to pull in moisture from gulf and atlantic


Yes, but we won't see (significant) tropical development with the low centered over land.

This low could easily become a tropical low (T.D. and eventually a T.S.) if it were stalled over the coastal waters offshore.
everything strart to move nw and back to the west at the end something block it
Quoting 704. hurricanes2018:

right now invest 90L Moving wnw at 14 mph.

It should turn west again or west-southwest based upon the steering currents:
Quoting 730. JRRP:


Quoting hurricanes2018:


its look like a T.D moving up the coast with the heavy rain moving up the east coast


The Low needs to get offshore (as shown in the NAM and CMC model).
CMC for 4 days in a row has been developing the Florida low.

00z JMA only goes out to 72 hours on the 00z run while the 12z goes out to 144 hours..

last frame



Quoting 756. ncstorm:

00z JMA only goes out to 72 hours on the 00z run while the 12z goes out to 144 hours..

last frame







WITW
NAM takes the Florida low up the coast keeping it mostly over land.
Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi
Liable to see a burst here in the atlantic of 2-3, perhaps 4 storms in September. Against other years, that number not a big deal
Looks like it becomes a lot better organized (circulation wise) in the last few frames.
Wake me up i'm dreamin. An Atlantic system organizing!

Over water in 39 hours.
Quoting 760. jdukes:

Looks like it becomes a lot better organized (circulation wise) in the last few frames.


Greetings,
Indeed 90L is definitely Pre-Edouard...the formation chances of this system needs to be upped significantly. 10% is a joke...90L appears BETTER NOW THAN MANY PREVIOUSLY NAMED SYSTEMS...WHATEVER THE JUSTIFICATION BY THE NHC. DOLLY WHEN IT WAS JUST UPGRADED AND CLASSIFIED IS A KEY CASE IN POINT....

90L IS definitely ATTAINING Tropical depression strength based on satellite imagery AND EXISTING RADAR LOOPS & FRAMES. I THINK GREATER DILIGENCE IN SPOTTING THE ONGOING INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEMS AND THE NEED FOR RELEVANT -INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES ARE NECESSARY IN A GREATER THRUST TOWARDS MORE Tropical Forecasting PROFICIENCY AND COMPETENCY, RATHER THAN OFTEN WAITING ON THE REVIEWS OF SYSTEMS AT THE END OF THE Given YEAR... GREATER METEOROLOGICAL DILIGENCE IS DEFINITELY NEEDED!
God Bless!
This front will give us cooler air but then the heat will build back for a bit, but then a stronger front is going to really "Break Summer". This pattern shows you Fall is near.
Post 739 on August 26 Joe Bastardi said Norbet would be a major ,no surprise pattern recognition.weather repeats itself.He is alaways ahead of others because of study of past patterns.Nothing new under the sun.
Hearing some thunder coming from the south, looks like Monkey Junction is experiencing a downpour right now.
767. JRRP
Quoting 766. win1gamegiantsplease:

Hearing some thunder coming from the south, looks like Monkey Junction is experiencing a downpour right now.



You must live in my area. I know Monkey Junction well. Im hearing low long rumbling thunder here in wrightsboro





MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
853 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

AMZ250-252-270-061345-
853 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...SHOWERS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...

AT 845 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS EXTENDING FROM
ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE FRYING PAN SHOALS TOWER..MOVING NORTH AT 20 KNOTS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BALD HEAD
ISLAND...KURE BEACH...10 MILE BOXCARS...5 MILE BOXCARS...CAROLINA
BEACH...DREDGE WRECK...HARRIS REEF...KURE BEACH POINT...LIBERTY
SHIP...SHEEPSHEAD ROCK...AND BUOYS WR2 AND WR4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 7703 3388 7715 3380 7726 3360 7734
3370 7807 3389 7803 3390 7799 3385 7798
3388 7795 3414 7786 3423 7779 3414 7715
3400 7700
12z Best Track for 90L.

AL, 90, 2014090612, , BEST, 0, 144N, 295W, 25, 1009, DB
I am S of the junction on Carolina Beach--HEAVY rain with the thunder and lightening thrown in. First rain came thru here about 6am---have .50 in about 30 minutes from that. Yea, a stay in day for sure----stay safe!
Quoting 770. Tigerosee:

I am S of the junction on Carolina Beach--HEAVY rain with the thunder and lightening thrown in. First rain came thru here about 6am---have .50 in about 30 minutes from that. Yea, a stay in day for sure----stay safe!


We had a heavy shower around 6 or 7 also. Actually it poured. I plan on watching netflix and taking it easy lol
the 00z/06z runs of the Navgem is showing an interest in the area over PR and increases in vorticity as it approaches Florida





Quoting 764. Climate175:

This front will give us cooler air but then the heat will build back for a bit, but then a stronger front is going to really "Break Summer". This pattern shows you Fall is near.
Hopefully this is a harbinger of another exciting winter!.
774. flsky
WITW? = what is the weather?
Quoting 757. K8eCane:




WITW
Quoting 773. washingtonian115:

Hopefully this is a harbinger of another exciting winter!.
It is almost time to begin the winter jamming!
777. FOREX
Quoting 772. ncstorm:

the 00z/06z runs of the Navgem is showing an interest in the area over PR and increases in vorticity as it approaches Florida






looks like 90L will recurve if it continues NW.
First FrontSecond Front Third Front.
Looks like 3 total fronts.
Quoting 774. flsky:

WITW? = what is the weather?




what in the world?
Quoting 777. FOREX:

looks like 90L will recurve if it continues NW.
when go back to the west in a few days from now
Quoting flsky:
WITW? = what is the weather?


Where is the wasabi? :P
the heavy rain and t.storms are north of the center of invest 90L
783. JRRP
Quoting flsky:
WITW? = what is the weather?

What Impressive Tropical Wave
784. flsky
I think I mentioned at the beginning of the season that interesting systems to watch were the ones exiting Africa near Dakar.
Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi
Liable to see a burst here in the atlantic of 2-3, perhaps 4 storms in September. Against other years, that number not a big deal


I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3 storms happen this month, the ECMWF has been showing a few moderate tropical storms in the MDR in the long range. Maybe a storm in October/November, and that'll conclude what should be the most inactive season since 1994 or 1997.
Quoting 783. JRRP:


What Impressive Tropical Wave



what in the world
787. FOREX
Quoting 786. K8eCane:




what in the world

Westward Is the Wunderkid
THE CENTER DOWN THERE INVEST 90L
789. SLU
Invest 90L is extremely disorganized this morning. It has a very broad and weak circulation and whatever thunderstorm activity it has is located well north of the vort max. Whatever is left of this system should eventually fizzle out over the CATL in the next few days. The next wave about to emerge will face similar, if not more difficult hurdles as it may go further north.



Quoting hurricanes2018:
THE CENTER DOWN THERE INVEST 90L
Maybe code orange next TWO,or STWO.
Quoting 740. Sfloridacat5:



Not with it sitting over land. As I mentioned, if the low was further to the east and sitting over water, it would be a different story.

I was expecting the low to form just off the Florida coast. That's why I was thinking it would develop.
Even over land, the low has a nice spin to it and has been getting more developed. Most likely due to the availability of moisture from the Atlantic and GOM not far away.


Yeah the airmass over Florida is also extremely moist and quite unstable, also, being that close of proximity to water like you said, it was able to produce deep convection without being over water or day time heating.

Quoting 770. Tigerosee:

I am S of the junction on Carolina Beach--HEAVY rain with the thunder and lightening thrown in. First rain came thru here about 6am---have .50 in about 30 minutes from that. Yea, a stay in day for sure----stay safe!


Raining on the weekends during football season, it was meant to be. Wet seems to be the key word for the next few days at least along the coast.

And since you mentioned Carolina Beach near the anniversary
Link
That ULL over the western Caribbean is spinning nicely.
Quoting 707. wxchaser97:

Hit my area of Metro Detroit again. Have numerous tree limbs down, several power lines down, a couple storm-related fires, and at least one large sign damaged. Will be looking at some more of the damage later today.
Had a highly unstable, but weakly sheared environment. The 18z Detroit sounding was pretty impressive, especially for September. Most of the severe weather was for damaging winds, as conditions weren't as favorable for large hail or tornadoes. DTE Reports that at least 350,000 customers are without power in their jurisdiction, with tens of thousands more in the western part of the state.


The SPC has the Southern Great Lakes, once again, under the risk of severe weather for next Wednesday. Not sure I actually want it this time.



I guess this is Detroit's year, with winds that strong just above the surface, almost any storm could be severe.
795. flsky
You win!
Quoting 781. CybrTeddy:



Where is the wasabi? :P
I just want to thank you all for all of weather information and friendships. Even though sometimes we don't get along, it gets good at the end. And Dr. Masters, thank you for all of your wonderful blogs, in-depth and very knowledgeable,as well as interesting. The reason why I'm showing this message because it has been 6 years in my interest in weather and tracking weather for 6 years. I thank all of you again and hope to be with you guys more. :)
Andre Brooks(Meteorologist)
12Z NAM at 57 hours - Florida low right along the coast. I would like to see a slight shift to the east, but that doesn't look likely at the moment.
Quoting 643. ncstorm:

00z GFS total precip up to 84 hours



Well, the GFS has already failed miserably, forecasting only 0.25 through 84 hours in north Florida, instead they've had 4-8 inches in some areas in less than 12 hours, meanwhile, very little rainfall is over the coast of the Atlantic.

My guess is the GFS initial placement of the low ad associated ascent is wrong.

Rainfall forecasts should taken with a grain of salt, especially during the summer. Rainfall forecasting during the summer has a track record of being really poor, especially in terms of distribution and placement.
12z NAM at 78 hours - big rain maker for North Carolina.

Quoting 795. flsky:

You win!

Wait, you mean it wasn't Wunderkidcayman Isn't Too Worried?

Okay, if you say so.....
90l in the gulf jb says its possible
All the short range models I am seeing this morning are showing training thunderstorms from Tampa to Daytona come later this afternoon. If this does indeed happen then several inches of rain in spots could occur. Yesterday many areas saw 2" to 5" of rain. The Rockledge and Titusville areas saw over 4.50" of rain yesterday. Remember this area received over 19" of rain in July.
Rainy days ahead here in charleston
Quoting 798. Jedkins01:


Well, the GFS has already failed miserably, forecasting only 0.25 through 84 hours in north Florida, instead they've had 4-8 inches in some areas in less than 12 hours, meanwhile, very little rainfall is over the coast of the Atlantic.

My guess is the GFS initial placement of the low ad associated ascent is wrong.

Rainfall forecasts should taken with a grain of salt, especially during the summer. Rainfall forecasting during the summer has a track record of being really poor, especially in terms of distribution and placement.


Nearing a 12" in Lake City now.

Morning y'all. 90 looking like it deserves more than 10/10 lol.




Seems 50/50+ would be more appropriate, but they know.

Also worth mentioning...

Quoting 805. GatorWX:
Morning y'all. 90 looking like it deserves more than 10/10 lol.




Seems 50/50+ would be more appropriate, but they know.

Also worth mentioning...



Remember I said nthis a few days ago. Well now you don't see those people on the blog this morning.
Quoting 804. StormTrackerScott:



Nearing a 12" in Lake City now.




Your little swirl has been performing pretty good, albeit over land.
Quoting 807. StormTrackerScott:



Remember I said nthis a few days ago. Well now you don't see those people on the blog this morning.


Sorry, what did you say a few days ago?
Im guessing the 12z NAM is hinting at rain?

792-win1game--

Yes, 1996 was bad year for us. Bertha was in July, then Fran in Sept. I have been VERY lucky and all damage from any of our storms has been cosmetic N end and Kure Beach not so lucky. When we were able to come back home following Fran-----those with N end stickers were told to wait ---a bus would take them up that way to survey their property----

Enjoy your football----I am in hopes the race won't be rained out in Richmond tonight'-)

.
Quoting 804. StormTrackerScott:



Nearing a 12" in Lake City now.




That circulation looks much better than the one off the coast. How much rain is in the forecast for N Florida through tomorrow?
Quoting FOREX:

Westward Is the Wunderkid


Wise is to Waite
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Remember I said nthis a few days ago. Well now you don't see those people on the blog this morning.


I was all over that low 3 days ago, remember. We were discussing the north Florida low and the circulation a little further to the south.
I think we were the only two excited about it.

The NAM picked up the low several day ago. I have to give the NAM some credit. It's done a pretty decent job this season with the smaller weaker systems.
Quoting 811. ncstorm:

Im guessing the 12z NAM is hinting at rain?


I do not doomcast , but this pattern seems to favor the Carolina,s with storms this year.
Quoting 811. ncstorm:

Im guessing the 12z NAM is hinting at rain?




...and the first three rows of counties...you may get wet.
Quoting 809. GatorWX:


Sorry, what did you say a few days ago?


I said I was surprised the NHC diodn't make mention of it because models were showing possible development with in 5 days and people jumped all over me on here. It was like a pack wolves feasting on here.
Goodness! here we go again, NWS in Melbounre earlier this morning painted the picture for rain here in central and east central Florida 70% today and tomorrow, tapering off through the week and now we are 70% across the board down to 50% and tapering down again, o-well, so much for washing my truck :(
Elev 65 ft 30.06 °N, 82.70 °W | Updated 0 sec ago

Rain
Rain
72.9 °F
Feels Like 72.9 °F
N0.0
Wind Variable
Gusts 0 mph
Today is forecast to be MUCH COOLER than yesterday. Thunderstorms, some may contain heavy rain.

Today
High 82 | Low 71 °F
80% Chance of Precip.
Yesterday
High 90 | Low 70.3 °F
Precip. 0.3 in (Radar Loop)
Sun & Moon 7:10 am 7:47 pm
Waxing Gibbous, 91% visible
Pressure 30 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Scattered Clouds 1200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 6500 ft
Dew Point 72 °F
Humidity 98%
Rainfall 5.86 in
Quoting 815. Sfloridacat5:


I was all over that low 3 days ago, remember. We were discussing the north Florida low and the circulation a little further to the south.
I think we were the only two excited about it.

The NAM picked up the low several day ago. I have to give the NAM some credit. It's done a pretty decent job this season with the smaller weaker systems.


You too but for whatever reason I was the bullseye. I guess because I mentioned I was surprised the NHC didn't make mention of it.
I even said the NHC should give the low a yellow X yesterday afternoon.

Tropical developement is still rather slim with the low over land. Maybe further up the coast it could spin up once it gets back over open water (CMC sure thinks so).
Quoting 817. win1gamegiantsplease:



...and the first three rows of counties...you may get wet.


the ants never left my yard..they knew the rain was coming..
Quoting 819. hurricanewatcher61:
Goodness! here we go again, NWS in Melbounre earlier this morning painted the picture for rain here in central and east central Florida 70% today and tomorrow, tapering off through the week and now we are 70% across the board down to 50% and tapering down again, o-well, so much for washing my truck :(


Orlando area is going to see a lot of rain again today so get ready.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You too but for whatever reason I was the bullseye. I guess because Intioned I was surprised the NHC didn't make mention of it.


Nobody really cared about the low but a few members of the blog.
Now its the main weather system going right now.

Cat-3 and headed for us up here, may get some rain from this one, Surfs up 7-10'....
It is interesting to note, that some of the most intense and destructive Hurricanes to ever affect South Florida came during years that were very slow such as the one we are currently in right now. In 1928 we had the Great Palm Beach Okeechobee Hurricane and there were only 6-storms reported for the entire season. The great Key Largo Hurricane in 1929 and there were only 3-storms reported that year. And of course the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. In that year there were only 6-storms all together. In 1960 when Hurricane Donna hit the middle keys in mid September that year only produced a total of 7-storms. in 1965, Hurricane Betsy hit Key Largo and then New Orleans. There were only 6-storms that year. And one more example, in 1992 Hurricane Andrew which wiped out parts of Florida City, Homestead and Cutler Ridge, in that year there were only a total of 7-storms. We have already had 4-storms this year and we are only in the first week of September. So keep in mind that it is still very possible for a major Hurricane to develop and strike anywhere along the coast in what is known as Hurricane Alley. You don't need to have an active year to get hit by a Hurricane. One more note, more Hurricanes have hit the state of Florida during the month of October then any other month. So it's not over yet!
Thank goodness it's football season. Rainy weekend and football sounds good to me.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Orlando area is going to see a lot of rain again today so get ready.
Cat-3 and headed for us up here, may get some rain from this one, Surfs up 7-10'....


norbert has brought us rain yesterday and today.........he's such a good boy!
Well said!
Quoting HurriHistory:
It is interesting to note, that some of the most intense and destructive Hurricanes to ever affect South Florida came during years that were very slow such as the one we are currently in right now. In 1928 we had the Great Palm Beach Okeechobee Hurricane and there were only 6-storms reported for the entire season. The great Key Largo Hurricane in 1929 and there were only 3-storms reported that year. And of course the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. In that year there were only 6-storms all together. In 1960 when Hurricane Donna hit the middle keys in mid September that year only produced a total of 7-storms. in 1965, Hurricane Betsy hit Key Largo and then New Orleans. There were only 6-storms that year. And one more example, in 1992 Hurricane Andrew which wiped out parts of Florida City, Homestead and Cutler Ridge, in that year there were only a total 7-storms. We have already had 4-storms this year and we are only in the first week of September. So keep in mind that it is still very possible for a major Hurricane to develop and strike anywhere along the coast in what is known as Hurricane Alley. You don't need to have an active year to get hit by a Hurricane. One more note, more Hurricanes have hit the state of Florida during the month of October then any other month. So it's not over yet! (or untill the fat lady sings, I guess)
Quoting 807. StormTrackerScott:



Remember I said nthis a few days ago. Well now you don't see those people on the blog this morning.


What are you smoking again today? No one on this blog disputed disturbed weather off the coast of FL. Or a rain event. It's been sitting there all week. What I believe was disputed was tropical development that I believe you said would "rapidly happen.".

btw - you said 2- 5" of rain in Orlando yesterday. These are the 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 8:00am from your friends at the NWS in Melbourne. Another exaggeration.

: High LOW 24 Hour
: Yesterday Overnight Rainfall
: Airport Observations 8 PM TO 8 AM TO 8 AM
:
.BR MLB 0906 E DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ
:
DAB : Daytona Beach Intl Apt : 87 / 71 / 1.51
FPR : St Lucie County Intl Apt : 91 / 74 / 0.20
LEE : Leesburg Intl Apt : 91 / 75 / 0.87
MLB : Melbourne Intl Apt : 90 / 73 / 0.73
MCO : Orlando Intl Apt : 90 / 73 / 0.66
ORL : Orlando Executive Apt : 91 / 73 / 0.48
SFB : Orlando Sanford Apt : 92 / 73 / 0.39
VRB : Vero Beach Apt : 88 / 71 / 0.05
XMR : Cape Canaveral AFS : 90 / 71 / 0.64
COF : Patrick AFB : 88 / 74 / 2.03
TTS : Kennedy Space Center : 89 / 71 / M
Quoting GatorWX:
Morning y'all. 90 looking like it deserves more than 10/10 lol.




Seems 50/50+ would be more appropriate, but they know.

Also worth mentioning...



It would probably be a T.D. in the GOM or close to the U.S.. But I think the NHC doesn't want to classify a system that far out in the Atlantic and then drop it a few days later which has been the pattern with these Atlantic systems.
Reading about the system analysis on the Navy site, none of the models seem to excited about the system in the long run.
But what do the models know?

Quoting 812. Tigerosee:

792-win1game--

Yes, 1996 was bad year for us. Bertha was in July, then Fran in Sept. I have been VERY lucky and all damage from any of our storms has been cosmetic N end and Kure Beach not so lucky. When we were able to come back home following Fran-----those with N end stickers were told to wait ---a bus would take them up that way to survey their property----

Enjoy your football----I am in hopes the race won't be rained out in Richmond tonight'-)

.


I was a young kid in High Point during Fran. It was early in the morning and we had to stay in the living room because part of our roof caved in. Few trees down in the neighborhood and I remember leaving my bike out the night before and being upset when it didn't ride after that. A friend of mine who's a bit older lived on the Onslow County side of Surf City at the time and had pictures, couldn't imagine what it was like on the coast if it was still a force to be reckoned with inland. Almost approaching 20 years since the last major hurricane, us SC and Florida living life on the edge.
Quoting 833. Sfloridacat5:



It would probably be a T.D. in the GOM or close to the U.S.. But I think the NHC doesn't want to classify a system that far out in the Atlantic and then drop it a few days later which has been the pattern with these Atlantic systems.
Reading about the system analysis on the Navy site, none of the models seem to excited about the system in the long run.
But whtat do the models know?


30% sounds right.
Quoting 833. Sfloridacat5:



It would probably be a T.D. in the GOM or close to the U.S.. But I think the NHC doesn't want to classify a system that far out in the Atlantic and then drop it a few days later which has been the pattern with these Atlantic systems.
Reading about the system analysis on the Navy site, none of the models seem to excited about the system in the long run.
But whtat do the models know?


30% sounds right.
gfs likes the second wave coming off of africa

832. luvtogolf


a memory is a terrible thing to have on this blog
839. MahFL
Quoting 731. Sfloridacat5:



So I see the NHC finally put a yellow X over the north Florida Low.


The yellow x was there yesterday evening.
Quoting 818. StormTrackerScott:



I said I was surprised the NHC diodn't make mention of it because models were showing possible development with in 5 days and people jumped all over me on here. It was like a pack wolves feasting on here.


Only because what you stated wasn't what the models were showing (They were showing a spin up from the trough) is all. Also to note, Grothar had been telling us about the system for a week or so now. I didn't mean to have a go at you if that's what you thought (and I didn't expect so many people to respond to you either). No hard feelings, afterall I'm wrong just as much as everyone else. :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Remember I said nthis a few days ago. Well now you don't see those people on the blog this morning.
Wait. I just arrived. Did you say something about crow and El Nino forecasts?
Quoting GatorWX:
Morning y'all. 90 looking like it deserves more than 10/10 lol.




Seems 50/50+ would be more appropriate, but they know.

Also worth mentioning...



maybe a problem down the road if it manages to survive dry airmass across central Atlantic. Big IF though
Quoting HurriHistory:
It is interesting to note, that some of the most intense and destructive Hurricanes to ever affect South Florida came during years that were very slow such as the one we are currently in right now. In 1928 we had the Great Palm Beach Okeechobee Hurricane and there were only 6-storms reported for the entire season. The great Key Largo Hurricane in 1929 and there were only 3-storms reported that year. And of course the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. In that year there were only 6-storms all together. In 1960 when Hurricane Donna hit the middle keys in mid September that year only produced a total of 7-storms. in 1965, Hurricane Betsy hit Key Largo and then New Orleans. There were only 6-storms that year. And one more example, in 1992 Hurricane Andrew which wiped out parts of Florida City, Homestead and Cutler Ridge, in that year there were only a total of 7-storms. We have already had 4-storms this year and we are only in the first week of September. So keep in mind that it is still very possible for a major Hurricane to develop and strike anywhere along the coast in what is known as Hurricane Alley. You don't need to have an active year to get hit by a Hurricane. One more note, more Hurricanes have hit the state of Florida during the month of October then any other month. So it's not over yet!


Love it :0) great post.
Quoting 815. Sfloridacat5:



I was all over that low 3 days ago, remember. We were discussing the north Florida low and the circulation a little further to the south.
I think we were the only two excited about it.

The NAM picked up the low several day ago. I have to give the NAM some credit. It's done a pretty decent job this season with the smaller weaker systems.


There wasn't much to be excited about at that time. It was obviously running straight into GA. For me, it's interesting now that it's been there for three days, is drawing lots of moisture from the gom and atl and seems to be holding its own over land. As I've said, I'm a see it to believe it type person in relation to the models.

Quoting 818. StormTrackerScott:



I said I was surprised the NHC diodn't make mention of it because models were showing possible development with in 5 days and people jumped all over me on here. It was like a pack wolves feasting on here.


They jump all over you for anything, including me once or twice. I try to be a bit more restrained than some. I'll at leas admit when I'm wrong. I don't care to fight it til the bitter end. Nobody's going to win a prize at the end of the day, ya know? wkc is another. Everyone has to shut down everything he says. It's so childish!
10% is about right if you guys no how to read the two


Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has increased
and become a little better organized this morning. However,
significant development of this system is not expected due to a
unfavorable dry air mass that prevails over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

I other words I don't see any thing comeing from 90L
never mind.....can't load pics this morning for some reason








Quoting 831. hurricanewatcher61:

Well said!
Quoting 828. HurriHistory:

It is interesting to note, that some of the most intense and destructive Hurricanes to ever affect South Florida came during years that were very slow such as the one we are currently in right now. In 1928 we had the Great Palm Beach Okeechobee Hurricane and there were only 6-storms reported for the entire season. The great Key Largo Hurricane in 1929 and there were only 3-storms reported that year. And of course the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. In that year there were only 6-storms all together. In 1960 when Hurricane Donna hit the middle keys in mid September that year only produced a total of 7-storms. in 1965, Hurricane Betsy hit Key Largo and then New Orleans. There were only 6-storms that year. And one more example, in 1992 Hurricane Andrew which wiped out parts of Florida City, Homestead and Cutler Ridge, in that year there were only a total of 7-storms. We have already had 4-storms this year and we are only in the first week of September. So keep in mind that it is still very possible for a major Hurricane to develop and strike anywhere along the coast in what is known as Hurricane Alley. You don't need to have an active year to get hit by a Hurricane. One more note, more Hurricanes have hit the state of Florida during the month of October then any other month. So it's not over yet!


Many of which hit the Gulf Coast/Keys. Worst storm in the history of Myrtle Beach and NC (outside of maybe Floyd) also in October, always got to keep your guard up. I have family in NY/NJ who didn't even know it was still hurricane season when Sandy paid a visit.


I was a young kid in High Point during Fran. It was early in the morning and we had to stay in the living room because part of our roof caved in. Few trees down in the neighborhood and I remember leaving my bike out the night before and being upset when it didn't ride after that. A friend of mine who's a bit older lived on the Onslow County side of Surf City at the time and had pictures, couldn't imagine what it was like on the coast if it was still a force to be reckoned with inland. Almost approaching 20 years since the last major hurricane, us SC and Florida living life on the edge.
>



I went to stay with friends in Thomasville during Fran. Small world, huh?? I had stayed during Bertha 2 months prior---so to me it just seemed like brisk wind. Stayed in Greensboro for Floyd--then couldn't get back home due to flooding eastern part of state---There is an 'art form' acquired after having to clear yard for a hit several times----

NO!!!! Have my hands over ears at the mention of a major here---SHAME on you!!!!
Little bit of a spin off the west coast of Florida. Also seems like by radar everything is moving south?
Mmmm




10% is about right if you guys no how to read the two



sorry taz...i haven't learned how to read yet
Quoting 832. luvtogolf:


What are you smoking again today? No one on this blog disputed disturbed weather off the coast of FL. Or a rain event. It's been sitting there all week. What I believe was disputed was tropical development that I believe you said would "rapidly happen.".

btw - you said 2- 5" of rain in Orlando yesterday. These are the 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 8:00am from your friends at the NWS in Melbourne. Another exaggeration.


Also Tom Terry last night had all the rainfall totals posted and they ranged from near a 1" to 4.62" at Rockledge. Again you are blowing smoke to troll the blog.
: High LOW 24 Hour
: Yesterday Overnight Rainfall
: Airport Observations 8 PM TO 8 AM TO 8 AM
:
.BR MLB 0906 E DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ
:
DAB : Daytona Beach Intl Apt : 87 / 71 / 1.51
FPR : St Lucie County Intl Apt : 91 / 74 / 0.20
LEE : Leesburg Intl Apt : 91 / 75 / 0.87
MLB : Melbourne Intl Apt : 90 / 73 / 0.73
MCO : Orlando Intl Apt : 90 / 73 / 0.66
ORL : Orlando Executive Apt : 91 / 73 / 0.48
SFB : Orlando Sanford Apt : 92 / 73 / 0.39
VRB : Vero Beach Apt : 88 / 71 / 0.05
XMR : Cape Canaveral AFS : 90 / 71 / 0.64
COF : Patrick AFB : 88 / 74 / 2.03
TTS : Kennedy Space Center : 89 / 71 / M



Now you are just blantly lying and you know it. Never said anything about rapid. All I said is I was surprised it didn't get a mention as models were showing possible development with in 5 days. Pull the post and crow will be fed Ex'd to you ASAP.

Heavy rain floods streets, knocks out power in parts of Brevard County

BREVARD COUNTY, Fla. %u2014


Hours of rain left behind some damage and flooded streets across central Florida, catching some drivers off guard.

The storms also caused two high school football games to be canceled because of lightning and flooded fields.

Rain fell especially hard and fast in Brevard County Friday afternoon and evening, flooding streets and knocking out power to hundreds of residents in Titusville.

Crews were still working to restore power to the nearly 300 people affected.

Many drivers had to be rescued from rushing flood waters during the evening commute.

%u201CI was trying to turn around because the road was all covered in water down there and I didn%u2019t realize there was a deep ditch right there. It started filling up with water so I got out said one driver, who was not identified.

At one point, the rain falling at about 4 inches per hour.





Oh wait and here's the news story for you below. Bam!!

http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/heavy-rain-fl oods-streets-knocks-out-power-parts-b/nhG5c/
Quoting 830. ricderr:

Cat-3 and headed for us up here, may get some rain from this one, Surfs up 7-10'....


norbert has brought us rain yesterday and today.........he's such a good boy!


Where do you live ric?
Yes, we do know how to read the TWO.Some of us think it should be a little higher, that's all. You never know. Anything can happen.
Quoting Tazmanian:
10% is about right if you guys no how to read the two


Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has increased
and become a little better organized this morning. However,
significant development of this system is not expected due to a
unfavorable dry air mass that prevails over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

I other words I don't see any thing comeing from 90L
Quoting 833. Sfloridacat5:



It would probably be a T.D. in the GOM or close to the U.S.. But I think the NHC doesn't want to classify a system that far out in the Atlantic and then drop it a few days later which has been the pattern with these Atlantic systems.
Reading about the system analysis on the Navy site, none of the models seem to excited about the system in the long run.
But what do the models know?




More so for the wave following 90.
Talk about blowing up a troll I just nailed one to the wall.
858. MahFL
Quoting 850. hurricanewatcher61:

Little bit of a spin off the west coast of Florida. Also seems like by radar everything is moving south?


The low is actually in SE Georgia, the spin you see is the rain going south on the west side of the low.
Quoting 837. ricderr:

gfs likes the second wave coming off of africa


fish storm
fish storm


i laddie
Quoting 832. luvtogolf:



What are you smoking again today? No one on this blog disputed disturbed weather off the coast of FL. Or a rain event. It's been sitting there all week. What I believe was disputed was tropical development that I believe you said would "rapidly happen.".

btw - you said 2- 5" of rain in Orlando yesterday. These are the 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 8:00am from your friends at the NWS in Melbourne. Another exaggeration.

: High LOW 24 Hour
: Yesterday Overnight Rainfall
: Airport Observations 8 PM TO 8 AM TO 8 AM
:
.BR MLB 0906 E DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ
:
DAB : Daytona Beach Intl Apt : 87 / 71 / 1.51
FPR : St Lucie County Intl Apt : 91 / 74 / 0.20
LEE : Leesburg Intl Apt : 91 / 75 / 0.87
MLB : Melbourne Intl Apt : 90 / 73 / 0.73
MCO : Orlando Intl Apt : 90 / 73 / 0.66
ORL : Orlando Executive Apt : 91 / 73 / 0.48
SFB : Orlando Sanford Apt : 92 / 73 / 0.39
VRB : Vero Beach Apt : 88 / 71 / 0.05
XMR : Cape Canaveral AFS : 90 / 71 / 0.64
COF : Patrick AFB : 88 / 74 / 2.03
TTS : Kennedy Space Center : 89 / 71 / M



Stop being childish, he said some spots could get that much, not the while area, which at least somewhat, did happen.

Any smart person who wants to take the time to look at where those locations area on radar with respect to rainfall estimates will know that all those locations missed the heaviest rains. Like many places in the country, there are large areas of real estate not covered by official observing locations.
Rainfall estimates were either near, or a bit below what those stations report. However, there were substantial areas that do not have official reporting stations that the radar estimates were from 2-5 inches.

So even if Scott did overdue the forecast a bit, first of all, hes just a blogger that loves weather, not the NWS, so who cares if his forecast was a bit off? Its just for fun.

And second, rainfall forecasting has a track record of being poor, I dare you to follow the WPC's forecast totals compared to actual results, they are usually wrong by quite a god bit.

With that being said, why do the majority of your posts consist of either attacking Scott or some sort of climate science attack? I don't intend to be the blog police here, but if I happen to notice certain bloggers are being harassed, I naturally try to stick up for people, as I would in person as well. Its only fair.

So my challenge to you, is, stop being childish.
Where do you live ric?


lovely el paso
Quoting 822. StormTrackerScott:



You too but for whatever reason I was the bullseye. I guess because I mentioned I was surprised the NHC didn't make mention of it.


I'll just add this and let it go. The reason, imo, the NHC wasn't very interested in it is because models were hinting at development 3-4 days in the future at that time. The little swirl was headed for GA at a good clip and would move inland. None of the models hinting at development were the trusted, 'reliable three'. UKMET did show a 1013 low moving off the coast, but didn't do anything with it. This is likely the reason most people on here, including me weren't interested also. There was nothing to get excited about at that time.

Sorry to interrupt....

Anyone know how all this weather everywhere is going to affect the apples? Love me some Honeycrisp apples.... and those SweeTango apples are mmmm good....


*****
How about that 90L, huh? Wow, looks like it might move west or north or a combination of the two. (See? Back on topic!)
Quoting 861. Jedkins01:


Stop being childish, he said some spots could get that much, not the while area, which at least somewhat, did happen.

Any smart person who wants to take the time to look at where those locations area on radar with respect to rainfall estimates will know that all those locations missed the heaviest rains. Like many places in the country, there are large areas of real estate not covered by official observing locations.
Rainfall estimates were either near, or a bit below what those stations report. However, there were substantial areas that do not have official reporting stations that the radar estimates were from 2-5 inches.

So even if Scott did overdue the forecast a bit, first of all, hes just a blogger that loves weather, not the NWS, so who cares if his forecast was a bit off? Its just for fun.

And second, rainfall forecasting has a track record of being poor, I dare you to follow the WPC's forecast totals compared to actual results, they are usually wrong by quite a god bit.

With that being said, why do the majority of your posts consist of either attacking Scott or some sort of climate science attack? I don't intend to be the blog police here, but if I happen to notice certain bloggers are being harassed, I naturally try to stick up for people, as I would in person as well. Its only fair.

So my challenge to you, is, stop being childish.


Hey Jed, It's all in the video below and he knows this because it was all over the news last night as the flooding was pretty bad in areas.

http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/heavy-rain-fl oods-streets-knocks-out-power-parts-b/nhG5c/
I'll just add this and let it go. The reason, imo, the NHC wasn't very interested in it is because models were hinting at development 3-4 days in the future at that time. The little swirl was headed for GA at a good clip and would move inland. None of the models hinting at development were the trusted, 'reliable three'. UKMET did show a 1013 low moving off the coast, but didn't do anything with it. This is likely the reason most people on here, including me weren't interested also. There was nothing to get excited about at that time.


actually...many people showed the cmc...nc groth...me.....but we showed it as it will come off nc or such.....it wasn't anything to get excited about over the florida coast is all
Where is the guy who posts every frame of each model run as soon as it is out? The GFS is running.
Quoting 862. ricderr:

Where do you live ric?


lovely el paso


Nice! Some welcome rains for you, I hope for!
Where is the guy who posts every frame of each model run as soon as it is out? The GFS is running.
Another great post! I agree.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Stop being childish, he said some spots could get that much, not the while area, which at least somewhat, did happen.

Any smart person who wants to take the time to look at where those locations area on radar with respect to rainfall estimates will know that all those locations missed the heaviest rains. Like many places in the country, there are large areas of real estate not covered by official observing locations.
Rainfall estimates were either near, or a bit below what those stations report. However, there were substantial areas that do not have official reporting stations that the radar estimates were from 2-5 inches.

So even if Scott did overdue the forecast a bit, first of all, hes just a blogger that loves weather, not the NWS, so who cares if his forecast was a bit off? Its just for fun.

And second, rainfall forecasting has a track record of being poor, I dare you to follow the WPC's forecast totals compared to actual results, they are usually wrong by quite a god bit.

With that being said, why do the majority of your posts consist of either attacking Scott or some sort of climate science attack? I don't intend to be the blog police here, but if I happen to notice certain bloggers are being harassed, I naturally try to stick up for people, as I would in person as well. Its only fair.

So my challenge to you, is, stop being childish.
Has anybody noticed this? :)

Quoting 865. StormTrackerScott:



Hey Jed, It's all in the video below and he knows this because it was all over the news last night as the flooding was pretty bad in areas.

http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/heavy-rain-fl oods-streets-knocks-out-power-parts-b/nhG5c/


lol, and I'm sure he knows that most of Florida with its limestone and sandy soils has a higher flood guidance than most places, it takes several inches in a short time to cause that kind of flooding.

Flood guidance is a combination of time of year, soil moisture, and many other features. Even with high soil moisture, flood guidance is pretty high in Central Florida:

I think it speaks for itself.
90l would be a fish for sure if conditions were like they were a few yrs ago. noticed the jb model is saying it could even make into the gulf. crazy to say this but we could be unlucky that conditions in the central atlantic are hostile.
This will be the one to watch!!!!

Quoting 867. unknowncomic:

Where is the guy who posts every frame of each model run as soon as it is out? The GFS is running.


Who cares?

It's right here.
and here
and here
etc
My Grandad over in Newberry west of Gainesville is reporting 3.91" of rain this morning.
Quoting 874. Grothar:

This will be the one to watch!!!!


I see the trouble maker is at it again this am

morning gro
Quoting 871. Grothar:

Has anybody noticed this? :)


where did that come from
Quoting 849. Tigerosee:



I was a young kid in High Point during Fran. It was early in the morning and we had to stay in the living room because part of our roof caved in. Few trees down in the neighborhood and I remember leaving my bike out the night before and being upset when it didn't ride after that. A friend of mine who's a bit older lived on the Onslow County side of Surf City at the time and had pictures, couldn't imagine what it was like on the coast if it was still a force to be reckoned with inland. Almost approaching 20 years since the last major hurricane, us SC and Florida living life on the edge.
>



I went to stay with friends in Thomasville during Fran. Small world, huh?? I had stayed during Bertha 2 months prior---so to me it just seemed like brisk wind. Stayed in Greensboro for Floyd--then couldn't get back home due to flooding eastern part of state---There is an 'art form' acquired after having to clear yard for a hit several times----

NO!!!! Have my hands over ears at the mention of a major here---SHAME on you!!!!


That's pretty cool, my aunt lives near the Market St/Holden Rd intersection in "the boro". I lived on Payne Rd in western HP, 15-20 minutes away from basically any place in the Triad. I remember seeing boxes upon boxes set up for food and clothing at stores, banks, churches, you name it for Floyd. Fran was what got me interested in weather but it's crazy how I remember all this. If I remember correctly '99 was also the (only) year we had a foot of snow there.

And how dare I mention such a dreary thought on a gourgeous day like today!
Quoting 877. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I see the trouble maker is at it again this am

morning gro



Mornin' KEEP. (At least I don't criticize every comment) :)
Quoting 871. Grothar:

Has anybody noticed this? :)




I do remember you saying it could sneak into the eastern gulf, will be interesting to watch! :)
Scott and anyone for that matter....I've found the best way to deal with trolls/arrogance is to like their post and just keep scrolling. They love it. Give them exactly the opposite of what they want, which is a rise from the person they are referencing. Just my .03.
Quoting 878. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

where did that come from

earlier nws jacksonville was saying some area's up there were getting 3 inches of rain an hour and STILL raining..going to be some flooding concerns for sure.
Quoting 847. Climate175:




I hope that is not today? Where is that?
Quoting Envoirment:


I do remember you saying it could sneak into the eastern gulf, will be interesting to watch! :)


Was that Gro?
I was trying to give credit to someone who mentioned a circulation that might get into the N.E. GOM back on Tuesday.
I posted a some radar images of N. Florida and the weak circulation.

I just didn't know who it was. This was way before anyone was even thinking of North Fl.

Quoting 876. StormTrackerScott:

My Grandad over in Newberry west of Gainesville is reporting 3.91" of rain this morning.


I hope we can get our game in today. Daytime heating is only just starting to be a factor. :( Slopfest it may be! Kickoff is at 4.
Quoting 885. Grothar:



I hope that is not today? Where is that?
its not my house that's all I care about

thinking that was from last winter
Quoting 881. Envoirment:



I do remember you saying it could sneak into the eastern gulf, will be interesting to watch! :)


Most likely it will move North into the Carolina region. A trough is supposed to come and pick it up. The one I said might enter the Gulf, was the low which did pass through Florida a few days ago. Conditions could be good for a little development right now.
Quoting 885. Grothar:



I hope that is not today? Where is that?
It is my vision.
Quoting 886. Sfloridacat5:



Was that Gro?
I was trying to give credit to someone who mentioned a circulation that might get into the N.E. GOM back on Tuesday.
I posted a some radar images of N. Florida and the weak circulation.

I just didn't know who it was. This was way before anyone was even thinking of North Fl.




Yep, that was me! But a number of days ago, I said it would have to way to go but north, because of the troughiness expected to be in the region. (Before I was viciously attacked by some other bloggers for expressing an opinion.)
Quoting 887. GatorWX:



I hope we can get our game in today. Daytime heating is only just starting to be a factor. :( Slopfest it may be! Kickoff is at 4.


Two weekends in a row without a game, a world I don't want to know exists.
Quoting Grothar:


Yep, that was me! But a number of days ago, I said it would have to way to go but north, because of the troughiness expected to be in the region. (Before I was viciously attacked by some other bloggers for expressing an opinion.)


I remember. I even have the radar images saved from that day when we were discussing it.
Quoting 847. Climate175:



<3 I'd love that for this Winter
Quoting 892. win1gamegiantsplease:



Two weekends in a row without a game, a world I don't want to know exists.


4 hours to go....

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
n of JAX



We have L's now.
Quoting 891. Grothar:



Yep, that was me! But a number of days ago, I said it would have to way to go but north, because of the troughiness expected to be in the region. (Before I was viciously attacked by some other bloggers for expressing an opinion.)


Like a pack of terrifying wolves they are.

Quoting 847. Climate175:


When I saw the first picture I immediately thought it was from the neighborhood where I used to live in Anchorage.

Quoting 874. Grothar:

This will be the one to watch!!!!




Yo GRO!!! I am sure you are going to be correct on that.

How's the weather your way? Scorching out today, I think it will hit 60F before the day is over.
Quoting 871. Grothar:

Has anybody noticed this? :)




NO, I can't see that from my house.
I appreciate the value of scare tactics to help get the public on board with the realities of climate change.
Weather reports from 2050 are a clever way to help accomplish this, however the assertion that foliage would change color in December is nonsense. Seasonal photosynthesis has everything to do with the hours of daylight and nothing to do with temperature. Such scientific inaccuracy fuels the argument that we don’t know what we’re talking about and the whole thing is a hoax.
Ken Mallon