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Non-Historic, High-Awareness Winter Weather Grips U.S.

By: Bob Henson 8:32 PM GMT on December 14, 2016

It’s beginning to feel a lot more like early winter across most of the United States after the warmest autumn on record. Several lobes of low pressure in the middle atmosphere, beneath the stratospheric polar vortex, have been swinging across the Midwest and Northeast U.S. These lobes are pushing large masses of Arctic surface air southward across the bulk of the nation in a series of pulses, with only limited relief in between. Even the worst of the cold doesn’t look like it will be truly historic at ground level. Still, some places will see their most frigid December conditions in several years. Cold and snow don’t have to be record-shattering in December to pack a noticeable punch.


Figure 1. A lone runner makes his way through Eagle Creek Park in Indianapolis, IN, as snow falls on Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/Darron Cummings.


Figure 2. Extremely cold air in the middle atmosphere was pooled in central Canada, as shown by the light colors on this depiction of the height of the 500-mb surface (about midway up through the atmosphere). Values on the right-hand side are shown in tens of meters. Contours of surface air pressure (in black) show high pressure dominating the central U.S. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

A week of wintry pulses
The latest phase of the cold wave was sweeping from the Midwest into the southern and eastern U.S. on Wednesday. Temperatures at midday were hovering a few degrees on either side of 0°F across most of Minnesota and the Dakotas. Strong northwest winds will push bitter cold across the East Coast corridor from Washington to Boston by Thursday, with temperatures tamped below freezing for at least a couple of days. Very light snow is possible for a few hours Wednesday night into Thursday, with another dose of wintry precipitation late Friday into Saturday. That round could have significant impacts for a few hours, as it falls onto already-cold road surfaces, until warmer air brings a transition from snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain to rain later Saturday. Capital Weather Gang warned of the potential for “an icy mess” on Saturday morning in the D.C. area.

Meanwhile, the next Arctic blast will push more frigid air into the central U.S., with a shield of light to moderate snow from the northern and central Rockies and Plains into the Upper Midwest. Denver may not get much above 0°F on Saturday, and single-digit lows could extend as far south as St. Louis, MO, on Sunday. Along the front, a band of thunderstorms is expected to drop a welcome 1” - 3” of rain across drought-hammered parts of the South, including northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee.


Figure 3. Winter weather alerts for the Great Lakes region as of Wednesday morning, December 14, 2016. Image credit: weather.com.

Lake effect machine kicks into overdrive
The most noteworthy snow this week will be in areas familiar to it: the lake-effect snow belts of the Great Lakes. Strong westerly winds associated with this week’s Arctic blasts will be passing over waters that have been unusually warm for this time of year (2°F to 4°F above average), leading to very unstable conditions that will favor snow-band formation. Areas in and near Buffalo, NY, and Cleveland, OH, could see periods of heavy snow with near-zero visibility on Wednesday into Thursday, although weather.com notes that the heaviest amounts may stay just south and east of Cleveland and Buffalo. (See embedded radar loop at bottom.)

Still more record highs than lows for December thus far
Largely because winter warmth is a welcome arrival to many, record highs in winter don’t grab the same attention as record lows. This week has already seen quite balmy conditions across the Gulf Coast and Southeast, and the region will see a brief recovery in temperatures over the weekend in between cold blasts. Monday’s high of 81°F was the warmest December day on record in Galveston, TX, in data going back to 1873. On the national scale, this warmth has actually been more exceptional than the cold observed further north. According to preliminary data from NOAA, the first few days of December (Dec. 1 - 12) saw 104 daily record highs in the U.S., but only 67 daily record lows. That ratio will tighten or even flip over the next few days, but don’t expect anything as out-of-whack as the 48-to-1 ratio of U.S. daily record highs to lows that occurred in November.


Figure 4. Strong northerly flow in mid-levels of the atmosphere (shown by white arrows) pushed very cold air southward at 18Z (1:00 pm EST) on December 23, 1983, near the peak of the great December 1983 cold wave. Red colors in the north-central U.S. denote the coldest air at 850 mb, about a mile above sea level. Yellow contours show the height (in decameters) of the 500-mb surface, near the vertical midpoint of the atmosphere. Image credit: National Weather Service/Dodge City, KS.

Echoes of a colossal December cold wave
We haven’t seen anything in recent decades like the truly historic cold wave that struck in December 1983. As noted by Eric Fisher (WBZ/Boston) and Angela Fritz (Capital Weather Gang), that memorable blast happened to follow the “super” 1982-83 El Niño event, which was roughly as strong as last winter’s 2015-16 El Niño event. The other comparably strong El Niño was in 1997-98; the following December (1998) ended up among the warmer Decembers in U.S. weather history but still produced some intense regional cold toward month’s end. In all three cases, the Pacific had swung from a very strong El Niño state into weak to moderate La Niña conditions by December.

Archives kept by meteorologist Guy Walton show that December 1983 produced a phenomenal 14,482 daily record lows and only 676 record highs. On December 24, barometric pressure (converted to sea-level equivalent) reached 1064 mb (31.42”) in Miles City, MT, the highest surface pressure on record for the contiguous U.S. according to WU weather historian Christopher Burt. Temperatures in mid- to late December 1983 plummeted to extreme values almost everywhere east of the Rockies, especially across the central third of the country. At Sioux Falls, SD, readings dipped below 0°F on December 16 and didn’t rise above zero again until December 25. Christmas Eve (December 24) brought a low of -25°F in Chicago, with wind gusts up to 41 mph. Christmas morning (December 25) saw low temperatures dip to 0°F as far southeast as Little Rock, AR, with a high of just 12°F. Even Tampa, FL, only reached a Christmas Day high of 38°F, as noted by weather.com’s Jon Erdman in a roundup of great American cold waves.

The average temperature for December 1983 in Minneapolis was 3.7°F, the coldest for any December on record. The upcoming weekend will be a rough one in the Twin Cities, with a low of around -15°F expected Saturday night and a high of just -5°F on Sunday. Neither would be a record, though: Minneapolis dipped to -24°F on December 18, 1983 (and -29°F the next night), with a high on the 18th of just -11°F. Other potential records and close-but-no-cigar forecasts:

Albany, NY, Fri. 12/16: forecast low -1°F (daily record -11°F, 1917)
Boston, MA, Fri. 12/16: forecast low 6°F (daily record 1°F, 1883)
International Falls, MN, Sun. 12/18: forecast low -22°F (daily record -36°F, 1983)
Detroit, MI, Mon. 12/19: forecast low -6°F (daily record -6°F, 1884)
Louisville, KY, Mon. 12/19: forecast low 15°F (daily record -5°F, 1884)

We’ll be back with a new post by Friday at the latest.

Bob Henson


Sea level pressures near the peak of the December 1983 cold wave, as mapped by the North American Regional Reanalysis. Image credit: Greg Carbin, NOAA.


Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The Chill is coming for Houston end of week



The fact that normal December weather is now news says something about the state of the climate --as does the fact that denialists are forced to propose normal weather is somehow contrary to CC Theory.
Thanks for the Updates Mr. Henson...
I don't think anyone from any political party can deny that the Arctic region is warming much faster than the rest of the Globe. What has been interesting the last several Winters has been the intrusion of some impressive Arctic Outbreaks as warmer air moves up toward North Pole. Been some weird blocking patterns the last 5 or 6 Winters leading to some very wacky weather across the US.
I just posted the comment below on the "old" Blog from earlier today:

Thank You for the Update on the Conference and 26,000 participants is truly impressive; now it is time for the the non-scientists who believe in their cause to support them as well in public by way of demonstration and continued opposition to policies, and politicians, which disregard the science and the scientists; this County and our Children deserve no less going into the future. And anyone who criticizes this particular demonstration, or any future ones like this, would be violating the Free Speech Clause of the US Constitution.

Quoting 1. RitaEvac:

The Chill is coming for Houston end of week





That's a pretty severe change in high temps.
Quoting 5. StormTrackerScott:

I don't think anyone from any political party can deny that the Arctic region is warming much faster than the rest of the Globe. What has been interesting the last several Winters has been the intrusion of some impressive Arctic Outbreaks as warmer air moves up toward North Pole. Been some weird blocking patterns the last 5 or 6 Winters leading to some very wacky weather across the US.

Yeah, I think it's called climate change.
Quoting 7. Misanthroptimist:


That's a pretty severe change in high temps.


That's why they're called Blue Northers in Texas
Quoting 7. Misanthroptimist:


That's a pretty severe change in high temps.


Some are going to freeze their tookus off.... long john time...lol
On this current December cold blast, I am driving into DC on Sunday morning for a trip to the Smithsonian then on to Mass for next 10 days.............Icing is the last thing I wanted to read about...................... :)
Quoting 2. Misanthroptimist:

The fact that normal December weather is now news says something about the state of the climate --as does the fact that denialists are forced to propose normal weather is somehow contrary to CC Theory.


HUH? Temps will be well below normal over the next several days. Infact -5 for a high in Chicago with -22 at night. That is colder than normal won't last long but what a impressive shot of cold air later this week.

Gonna get cool here too...
Warm front has pushed to the Oregon-CA border, and humidities have soared. We've reached 60F here by SF Bay, with 97% humidity. Satellite shows frontal band offshore, and also a large flux of deep moisture headed in from the ITCZ to our due south. Cold air is behind the frontal band with several jet streaks, so it's likely the forecast of heavy rain and mountain snows will be verified starting tomorrow. Possible cyclogenesis just offshore of SF will add strong winds, and with the king tides still occurring, ought to create some serious shoreline spillage around the Bay.

Probably the sort of news that the new administration in the USA wants to hear in order to promote even more fossil fuel burning to keep warm as its obvious that the planet is cooling down rapidly if you look out of your window, or at your thermometer in the central USA.

Thanks for the blog, makes me feel glad to be back home in Spain after 29 out of the 30 days I spent n the west coast of Canada, experiencing daily rain. Not to mention 1/c on the west coast around Vancouver where its still 1/C.
One day there in the afternoon about 2 pm the grey sky glowed a bit lighter than the rest and I gained hope that above the ominous cloud cover there might just be some sunshine but it was for only a moment.

"20 years ago this would have been a normal winter. Now cold is news for some reason?
Oh well its about +14/C or +60/F in my zone right now. Hope every body is prepared for what ever they are forecast?
Quoting 5. StormTrackerScott:

I don't think anyone from any political party can deny that the Arctic region is warming much faster than the rest of the Globe.


I don't even...

You must have been living in a cave somewhere for the past few decades. The majority of the right/alt-blight/etc. either claim that climate change is on a scale of "not happening" to "Chinese hoax". Why do you think people here get up in arms over Trump's cabinet picks? Why do you think Smith and Inhofe are universally loathed in the arena of science? These idiots exist in a world where science and facts are equal to their ignorance and opinions. It's just a bunch of liberal conspiracy made pinko commie tree hugging hippie crap according to them.

So no, there are millions of people on the right who deny any warming is taking place, regardless of location.
Thanks for the update Bob. It's sure a good time to live in Florida with all that frigid cold air coming.
Anyone else notice how that gfs map appeared like a face of doom on the USA?


Nice in SoCal today for Winter, normal is 66/42, was 52.2 here for the low..
Hey PlazaRed, good to here you made it back the Plains in one piece.
Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:



HUH? Temps will be well below normal over the next several days. Infact -5 for a high in Chicago with -22 at night. That is colder than normal won't last long but what a impressive shot of cold air later this week.



Is it a record cold? Maybe it is, but it still doesn't tip the scales to "normal" following the extremely warm fall.

I think the point of it being normal is that these severe dips in temps are not out of the ordinary. during a "normal winter".
Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:



HUH? Temps will be well below normal over the next several days. Infact -5 for a high in Chicago with -22 at night. That is colder than normal won't last long but what a impressive shot of cold air later this week.



Yes, the cold air has to go somewhere. But not for all of the US. You'll still be on the warmer side in FL.

Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:



HUH? Temps will be well below normal over the next several days. Infact -5 for a high in Chicago with -22 at night. That is colder than normal won't last long but what a impressive shot of cold air later this week.



How old are you Scott?

While those temps are colder than the average, they are by no means unusual for the region. In fact, cold shots dropping temps even lower used to be a regular occurrence there. They don't happen nearly as many as they used to, which is why it seems unusual NOW.

Those temps used to be just par for the course in your average Chicago winter.
Thanks for the blog!
The average temperature for December 1983 in Minneapolis was 3.7°F,

Wow, I thought the 8degF average I saw in February 2015 was cold.
Quoting 18. PedleyCA:


Nice in SoCal today for Winter, normal is 66/42, was 52.2 here for the low..
Hey PlazaRed, good to here you made it back the Plains in one piece.

Hi Ped ,
Hope you get some rain, it seems to rain all the time north of you, next time I am compelled to go there in Feb I'll slide down the coast and have chat with you, maybe even bring a tipple of Spanish wine with me.
I could not help but notice that the people of Vancouver seem to build very near to the high water mark. I pointed out that the sea was rising and that there was an error in their ways! Perhaps my ancient years and British accent saved me from a violent death but they really don't seem to grasp that their inheritors will have to be amphibians to survive what is coming there about 3 foot above high water mark.

Meanwhile while I was away the south coast of Spain suffered rainfall not seen in over 30 years and there was a lot of mud and damage about according to several British lurkers in this region. I have still to go and observe it first hand so as the truth can be properly told. Even the Almeria spaghetti western desert was all green when I passed through it a couple of days ago.

Arctic sea ice is still very low for the mid winter and the Antarctic is looking very sad as we head into its summer. going to be an interesting year so long as I can dodge the property developers in the BC Canada area again.
"Largely because winter warmth is a welcome arrival to many, record highs in winter don’t grab the same attention as record lows."

Including me. Now, Euro predicts temperatures constantly in the range of -5 and 0 degrees Celsius for the next ten days. (red line and shade) And that's pretty average. Primarily even somewhat above average. But global warming has spoiled me. This time last year, we were breaking heat records, and I found those temperatures in +5 - +10 degree Celsius range very pleasant.
This current "regular" cold wave is normal for this time of the year for the US based on the current jet configuration; the classic uniform and lateral flow dividing the polar air to the North and the much warmer mass across the South.........The problem comes when we get those prolonged cut-off lows and meanders in the jet, due to Arctic amplification, which allow warmer air to flow to the North into the Arctic and the occasional stuck patterns of bitter cold, or very warm weather, across any given region across the continental US.  





Now, every time it snows, its given a name.
Most of these named "Winter Storms" are just normal snow events that are common during the Winter months.

Especially hard hit in 1983 was Houston. That Christmas cold spell notched a 10 degree F low at the airport. That doesn't seem extreme to many in the north, but we had rolling electrical blackouts due to a nuclear plant shutting down; pipes were freezing at the nuclear facility. There were water mains bursting and wholesale house plumbing freezing. Houston just isn't designed for that kind of temperature. When the furnace only runs 1/2 the time it gets cold in the house.
Quoting 11. weathermanwannabe:

On this current December cold blast, I am driving into DC on Sunday morning for a trip to the Smithsonian then on to Mass for next 10 days.............Icing is the last thing I wanted to read about...................... :)











Quoting 11. weathermanwannabe:

On this current December cold blast, I am driving into DC on Sunday morning for a trip to the Smithsonian then on to Mass for next 10 days.............Icing is the last thing I wanted to read about...................... :)


Our icing hazard in DC area is Saturday morning and I think it's significant. Saturday through midday Sunday should be rain but a strong slow moving cold front will create another risk of snow Sunday night and Monday.. enough possibly to coat surfaces but nothing crippling.
Going to Blues - Blackhawks Sat. night, forecast to be upper 40s when wake up that morning, and fortunately, that's when it's supposed to rain. Around 25 by game time, upper teens when get out, about 10 the next morning (only 5 at home) 3 for low Mon when head back to work. But, still a ways from record lows, generally in -5 range this time of year. Currently 27 w/ NW winds gusting in mid teens, 30.24" in S C IL.

Pat - hope you have some spare travel time, if do, I recommend heading to Sonoma, hit Armstrong State Park, do Russian River confluence, run down the coast on 1 to at least Bodega Bay. (Keep an eye on the birds though;)
Quoting 30. georgevandenberghe:



Our icing hazard in DC area is Saturday morning and I think it's significant. Saturday through midday Sunday should be rain but a strong slow moving cold front will create another risk of snow Sunday night and Monday.. enough possibly to coat surfaces but nothing crippling.
just enough for the white knuckle event
4:05 PM EST Wednesday 14 December 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:
City of Toronto
Significant precipitation Friday night and Saturday across all of Southern Ontario.

A large system from the southwestern United States will spread snow across southern Ontario Friday night. Some guidance suggests that the snow may mix with or change to rain over portions of southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe later Saturday while other models indicate that snow could continue into Saturday night. This will be determined by the eventual track of the low.

Poor travel conditions are expected to develop from west to east across southern Ontario Friday evening and Friday night, and continue into Saturday.

Drier weather is expected in most places Sunday with the exception of areas to the southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay where snow squalls may develop.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
Near Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
6:00 AM FST December 15 2016
=============================
Northwest of Fiji

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1002 hPa) located at 14.2S 174.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as slowly moving.

Deep convection remains persistent. Organization has also improved past 24 hours. Outflow good to south due to subtropical jet to south of system. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System lies under a moderate upper diffluent region in a low shear environment. Dvorak analysis based 0.3 wrap yields DT=1.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT. Thus yielding,

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and slowly move it southwards with gradual intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=============
12 HRS 14.5S 174.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 15.1S 175.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 16.5S 175.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
low tonight 12f with chills in the negative teens flurries dev causing blowing snow after daybreak with winds gusting to 60 kmh range out of the west
Yikes...
Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just enough for the white knuckle event


Minnesota proverb

"it is better to be going slowly and wish you were going faster, than going fast and wish you were going slower"
Quoting 27. Sfloridacat5:

Now, every time it snows, its given a name.
Most of these named "Winter Storms" are just normal snow events that are common during the Winter months.




I'm not seeing it that way unless the winter weather advisory/storm warnings that are in effect for Michigan are part of "Caly" low pressure system.
Quoting 28. contraryjohn:

Especially hard hit in 1983 was Houston. That Christmas cold spell notched a 10 degree F low at the airport. That doesn't seem extreme to many in the north, but we had rolling electrical blackouts due to a nuclear plant shutting down; pipes were freezing at the nuclear facility. There were water mains bursting and wholesale house plumbing freezing. Houston just isn't designed for that kind of temperature. When the furnace only runs 1/2 the time it gets cold in the house.


During the January 21, 1985 outbreak (6F, 20 knot sustained winds out of the north ) in Tallahassee, FSU closed because too many buildings lost power or pipes for heat. High that afternoon under full sun was 28F.

I was at Fort Myers Beach (Estero Island) for Christmas in 1983. Didn't quite get to freezing on the beach but icicles formed on dripping faucets from evaporative cooling. I had been in Minneapolis the weekend prior and it was bitter bitter cold even for them with a -23F low that sunday morning Dec 18. Flew to FMY that day and stepped out to low 80s with dewpoints around 70 but I had a hunch that cold was coming down to us in South FL and boy it did!
Quoting 42. HadesGodWyvern:



I'm not seeing it that way unless the winter weather advisory/storm warnings that are in effect for Michigan are part of "Caly" low pressure system.


Yeah, the NWS already has Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, Blizzard Warnings, Heavy Snow Advisories, etc.
The NWS warning system is a lot more specific than just giving something a name.

Anyone that needs to warm up can watch guys surfing Pipeline live in Hawaii. I'm just memorized watching them.
Link
Quoting 5. StormTrackerScott:

I don't think anyone from any political party can deny that the Arctic region is warming much faster than the rest of the Globe.


Well they can't even admit to global warming, so good luck on the Arctic thing, some of them:

"John Ashston, the British government’s special representative on climate change, spoke at the opening session of the climate conference in Copenhagen. He argued that that politicians were “willfully ignoring and misunderstanding” the science of global warming."
Eugene, Oregon, USA: It's been raining all day with temps hovering around 0 C. So far no ice on the roads but tree branches are bending, the icicles on lamp posts are growing, and the power outages are starting to trickle in. Should get really fun as the temps drop below freezing in a couple hours.

Trump’s Approach: A Fresh Start or Crazy Reckless?

"...it is inexcusable not to sit down with our own government experts at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for a briefing before you appoint flagrant climate deniers with no scientific background to every senior environmental position."

Quoting 21. Xyrus2000:



How old are you Scott?

While those temps are colder than the average, they are by no means unusual for the region. In fact, cold shots dropping temps even lower used to be a regular occurrence there. They don't happen nearly as many as they used to, which is why it seems unusual NOW.

Those temps used to be just par for the course in your average Chicago winter.


yurp. i grew up around chicago and this sort of cold is typical of how pretty much every winter was. really nasty cold spells were far worse than this in december-february. but this current weather is what a 'bad cold spell' is nowadays.
Grothar? A harem? You bad, bad boy ;)
Quoting 30. georgevandenberghe:



Our icing hazard in DC area is Saturday morning and I think it's significant. Saturday through midday Sunday should be rain but a strong slow moving cold front will create another risk of snow Sunday night and Monday.. enough possibly to coat surfaces but nothing crippling.


The last time I heard that I was stuck on the 495 for 10 hours. No thanks.
Quoting 20. daddyjames:



Yes, the cold air has to go somewhere. But not for all of the US. You'll still be on the warmer side in FL.




Warm arctic, cold continents. The doc did a blog post on that a while back.
Quoting 21. Xyrus2000:



How old are you Scott?

While those temps are colder than the average, they are by no means unusual for the region. In fact, cold shots dropping temps even lower used to be a regular occurrence there. They don't happen nearly as many as they used to, which is why it seems unusual NOW.

Those temps used to be just par for the course in your average Chicago winter.


My two cents on the matter if it's worth a hill of beans.

To Scott's post which you quoted in #21, I have my doubts the high will be -5 with a -22 low (windchill may be a different matter) NWS Chicago forecast for the downtown area is much "warmer"

To your reply IF it did indeed reach -22 (again, I have my doubts) it would be the earliest date ever reaching such a temperature and would be impressive. I would disagree with it being a regular occurrence - unless one lived there in the 1980's where 9 of the coldest 15 days on record were recorded.

In random news - I lived in Iowa for several years and had an arctic blast where it bottomed out at -27 one night with a -14 high. Must have been around the mid 1990's. I moved to Florida shortly thereafter. :)
Quoting 21. Xyrus2000:



How old are you Scott?

While those temps are colder than the average, they are by no means unusual for the region. In fact, cold shots dropping temps even lower used to be a regular occurrence there. They don't happen nearly as many as they used to, which is why it seems unusual NOW.

Those temps used to be just par for the course in your average Chicago winter.


Quoting 48. schwankmoe:



yurp. i grew up around chicago and this sort of cold is typical of how pretty much every winter was. really nasty cold spells were far worse than this in december-february. but this current weather is what a 'bad cold spell' is nowadays.


Well according to this site the forecast low temp for Sunday night and Monday Morning is -17f (NWS has it at -11f, no record) which would be a record low for either date, but hey that is normal and used to happen all the time in fact it got far worse like that time when it set the all time record for December in Chicago at -25f . Memories are short aren't they.

Around here it is -10f with a windchill of -31f and getting colder through the night, lows somewhere near -20f and a windchill near -35f to -40f. We should be driving trucks on the lakes by next week.
Good night hello from boring central Europe under its high pressure of concrete (currently it's high "Wolfgang", neither crisp nor sunny at my place), yaaawwwn, while the line of storms over the North Atlantic keeps marching on towards the poor Arctic Ocean with its struggling sea ice ...


Low "Xenia" today over Iceland. Source.


Current airmasses, already with the next huge low in the North Atlantic.


Surface map for tomorrow.

Note: According to the current outlook of GFS you may copy and paste this comment of mine daily for the rest of 2016 ...
Quoting 20. daddyjames:

The graphic, ..................... looks like climate change is chopping the Arctic winter into pieces. Where the bits of cold are cast out to wander far from their home.
By the way , the clip at 55 has a very interesting introduction........

Frozen in young ice 3-4 feet thick near the North Pole in winter at -40F , clear and calm. A South to North jet comes along , and in 24 hours its 32F, with 50 mph winds. A 72 degree rise in 24 hours.

Well worth watching, strange days have found us.
faster faster
Quoting 58. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

faster faster

Trade mark that one Keeper.
Quoting 49. BaltimoreBrian:
Grothar? A harem? You bad, bad boy ;)
Must have been an anime character.
Well the AGU is doing a bang up job of what is being presented this year - (FM16 is Fall Meeting)

FM16 Press Conference: Mapping the flow of ice around the globe
Windy tomorrow. If these numbers come to be, it will be the windiest conditions since I moved here 20 years ago.

High Wind Warning
Issued: 2:34 PM PST Dec. 14, 2016 – National Weather Service

... High Wind Warning remains in effect until 4 PM PST Thursday...

* timing: southwest winds will increase this afternoon and
continue through Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds are
expected tonight through Thursday morning.

* Winds: southwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts 65 to 70 mph. Gusts
over 80 mph likely in wind prone areas around Reno... Carson
City and Minden. Sierra ridge gusts up to 130 mph.


* Lake tahoe: dangerous life threatening boating conditions are
expected with wave heights 3 to 7 feet.


* Impacts: winds of this magnitude have the potential to damage
trees... power lines and roofs. Strong cross winds will
create hazardous driving conditions with Road closures
possible.
Along with the wind, there will be rain and snow:

Winter Storm Warning
Issued: 3:05 PM PST Dec. 14, 2016 %u2013 National Weather Service

... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 10 am Thursday to 4 am PST
Friday above 7000 feet...

The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a Winter Storm
Warning above 7000 feet for heavy snow, which is in effect
from 10 am Thursday to 4 am PST Friday.

* Timing: valley rain and mountain snow will move in Thursday
morning, with heaviest snowfall occurring between 4 PM Thursday
to 1 am Friday.

* Snow accumulations: 1 to 3 feet for elevations above 8000
feet... 6 to 12 inches between 7000 to 8000 foot elevation.

* Winds: southwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts 65 to 70 mph. Sierra
ridge gusts up to 130 mph.

* Snow levels: near 8000 feet Thursday morning... then lowering to
near 7000 Thursday night... and then to all valley floors by
Friday morning.

* Impacts: heavy wet snow and strong winds will create hazardous
conditions for the highest elevations around Lake Tahoe.
Visibilities may drop to less than one quarter mile at times.
Highest Sierra passes will be impacted for the entire duration
of the storm, especially Mount Rose Highway and Carson Pass.
Donner Pass and Echo Summit will be impacted by heavy snow and
winds Thursday night into Friday morning.
What cold weather? In Houston it was over 70F yesterday and, after a cool front came through, today it still got up to 65F or so.

That's proof right there that the U.S. is NOT experiencing a cold snap. Line up all the scientists you want. I've got the proof.
Quoting 62. RobertWC:

Well the AGU is doing a bang up job of what is being presented this year - (FM16 is Fall Meeting)

FM16 Press Conference: Mapping the flow of ice around the globe


Everyone watch this.
Paraphrasing ..............
"With Land Sat 8 we are now watching all the out glaciers om Earth in real time."
Quoting 28. contraryjohn:

Especially hard hit in 1983 was Houston. That Christmas cold spell notched a 10 degree F low at the airport. That doesn't seem extreme to many in the north, but we had rolling electrical blackouts due to a nuclear plant shutting down; pipes were freezing at the nuclear facility. There were water mains bursting and wholesale house plumbing freezing. Houston just isn't designed for that kind of temperature. When the furnace only runs 1/2 the time it gets cold in the house.


I was there for that. The number and SIZE of the cockroaches fallen dead beneath the overpasses was ... well it just made a person shudder.
NASA built and launched Landsat 8. The images are almost perfect match to Landsat 7. It was designed for 5 years , Landsat 7 is 16 years old.
Quoting 68. MontanaZephyr:



I was there for that. The number and SIZE of the cockroaches fallen dead beneath the overpasses was ... well it just made a person shudder.

I'll bet they wouldn't beat the size of the cockroaches I saw inside a cave in Cuba several years ago - 4 inches long.
Quoting 70. oldnewmex:


I'll bet they wouldn't beat the size of the cockroaches I saw inside a cave in Cuba several years ago - 4 inches long.


Austin 1968, white flying cockroaches.
Quoting 70. oldnewmex:

I'll bet they wouldn't beat the size of the cockroaches I saw inside a cave in Cuba several years ago - 4 inches long.
I hear there's some big ones in DC...
Keeper-
trademark is ™
(alt key) 0153

faster faster™
Back to the ice @ 66 -
I have to stop , and digest just what the these folks are saying.
First, these are not greedy cheating scam artistes looking to pad their bank accounts.
Second , this entire presentation underscores NASA's importance. on how fast President Cheetoes golf resorts will need sea walls.
Quoting 71. RobertWC:



Austin 1968, white flying cockroaches.


Or the "Orange Sunshine" , I never figured that one out.
China has climate change deniers, too. But they're mostly shunned.

Yes there is climate denial in China, and they sound like unreconstructed Maoists.
 *****
"This phenomenon, which Liu has studied for several years, does not dominate political thought. Still, a growing body of Chinese-language books and online screeds depict the nation as duped by a Western-led climate regime. One such book, 'The Empire of Carbon Brokers,' says that one day in the future, we will discover that the planet is not getting any warmer, but colder - we will also realize that we are already tightly controlled by the United States, becoming their new slaves."

Liu also cites a popular online video by Larry Hsien Ping Lang, a US-educated economist and provocative commentator. His views are indicative of Chinese-style climate change denial. "The weather is obviously getting colder and colder," Lang says, "but they are still lying through their teeth. These foreign bastards are so worried that China will rise and surpass the United States. The scientists are all puppets controlled by politics. Copenhagen liars! American liars!"



This December cold outbreak is a little on the early side which is notable. The massive outbreak in 1983 was later in December and that indeed followed a strong el nino. But you are forgetting that El Chicon erupted which tempered the true effect of the El Nino. The warmth of the 2015-2016 El Nino no doubt has contributed significantly to the global warmth and is the main reason for the record warmth so far and likely for why the year will be the highest in the satellite record. But as Pacific conditions rapidly switch to weak La Nina, global temperatures are plummeting back to about where they were before 2015 and slowly falling. There is a lag effect. We get cold outbreaks that aren't record breaking all the time and we get mild spells that aren't. Glad to see you are not hyping this as the worst cold outbreak ever. It's not but certainly its notable given that it is the first significant major cold spell since Valentine's day 2016. This was a historic cold outbreak in a very mild winter which was interesting.
Quoting 65. bappit:

What cold weather? In Houston it was over 70F yesterday and, after a cool front came through, today it still got up to 65F or so.

That's proof right there that the U.S. is NOT experiencing a cold snap. Line up all the scientists you want. I've got the proof.
The one coming through OK Saturday is gonna kick a$$. S'posed to be 73 here Friday, 37 Saturday and 9 overnight Saturday/early Sunday. About a day later, you could be considerably chilly - following the severe risk scheduled for you on Saturday.
S'posed to be 73 here Friday, 37 Saturday and 9 overnight Saturday/early Sunday.

and 9 overnight

NINE is not a temperature!! NO!!!

Nine is, like, a pile of chicken wings.
76. no1der
2:21 AM GMT on December 15, 2016

The fascist brain , cuts across all time, all places, and all peoples.
Quoting 80. aquak9:

S'posed to be 73 here Friday, 37 Saturday and 9 overnight Saturday/early Sunday.

and 9 overnight

NINE is not a temperature!! NO!!!

Nine is, like, a pile of chicken wings.
LPL. Wind chills expected could hit minus 9, especially if someone eats those chicken wings. My little wood stove will keep me warm.
Quoting 76. no1der:

China has climate change deniers, too. But they're mostly shunned.

Yes there is climate denial in China, and they sound like unreconstructed Maoists.
 *****
"This phenomenon, which Liu has studied for several years, does not dominate political thought. Still, a growing body of Chinese-language books and online screeds depict the nation as duped by a Western-led climate regime. One such book, 'The Empire of Carbon Brokers,' says that one day in the future, we will discover that the planet is not getting any warmer, but colder - we will also realize that we are already tightly controlled by the United States, becoming their new slaves."

Liu also cites a popular online video by Larry Hsien Ping Lang, a US-educated economist and provocative commentator. His views are indicative of Chinese-style climate change denial. "The weather is obviously getting colder and colder," Lang says, "but they are still lying through their teeth. These foreign bastards are so worried that China will rise and surpass the United States. The scientists are all puppets controlled by politics. Copenhagen liars! American liars!"






To quote Mr. Spock, "Fascinating".
Quoting 70. oldnewmex:


I'll bet they wouldn't beat the size of the cockroaches I saw inside a cave in Cuba several years ago - 4 inches long.

Kind of curious, and hope you don't mind me asking, but how did you come to be in a cave in Cuba?
Bob Henson didn't mention it but we're also getting snow in the northwest. Here in the mid Willamette Valley it started snowing around 11 am and we have nearly 4 inches on the ground (outside my house) now with snow continuing to fall. It's expected to taper off overnight with a maximum depth around 5 inches. The cold weather will continue through Sunday but they don't expect a lot more snow accumulation after tonight. The temperature is 28F.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
201 PM CST WED DEC 14 2016
(list of Norman Forecast area counties removed)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.WINDS...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BEHIND A COLD FRONT...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS... UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES... AND DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.WINTER WEATHER...
A DUSTING TO ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SLICK ROADWAYS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW ZERO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

$$

MAHALE
Donald Trump once backed urgent climate action. Wait, what?
"As negotiators headed to Copenhagen in December 2009 to forge a global climate pact, concerned U.S. business leaders and liberal luminaries took out a full-page ad in the New York Times calling for aggressive climate action. In an open letter to President Obama and the U.S. Congress, they declared: “If we fail to act now, it is scientifically irrefutable that there will be catastrophic and irreversible consequences for humanity and our planet.”
One of the signatories of that letter: Donald Trump.
Also signed by Trump’s three adult children"
My cold weather numbers -
Mineral Hot Springs , Colorado the first week of January, 1970. Altitude 9,000 feet. The commune had 10 wood burning stoves, our wood pile was aspen trees. A road was cut , we went and got the logs. Aspen burns like toilet paper, and has the BTU output of Jello.
On January 1st 1971, we went to 55 below zero. For the next week our daytime high was 50 below . Bright clear days, and bright clear nights with winds speeds near zero.
I moved to another commune at 10, 600 feet just across the valley , 2 years later. One night in it was 26 F at our cabin, and it was -45 F at Alamosa.

I worked on the condos at Crested Butte in the winter later on. We lived in Salida. We when we went home one night in December. It was - 60F at the Texaco gas station in Gunnison , it was 28 on the top of Monarch Pass.

I drilled at Strawberry in Utah. It was - 40 F.

I have a very kine memory of the old cold. And believe me climate change has murdered it.

One never forgets if their pecker is about freeze solid.


Quoting 79. Barefootontherocks:
The one coming through OK Saturday is gonna kick a$$. S'posed to be 73 here Friday, 37 Saturday and 9 overnight Saturday/early Sunday. About a day later, you could be considerably chilly - following the severe risk scheduled for you on Saturday.
So they say. I've got the proof right now.
Sorry to hear that but it's not as sad as what happened to Robert in Colo.
So TWC says we are getting about 2 feet of snow tonight/tomorrow in the Rochester Area, while the NWS says 3-5 inches.
Interesting.
Based of off the wind direction I would bet the NWS is more correct.

My cold weather numbers -

I drilled at Strawberry in Utah. It was - 40 F.
I had a very old Amaco man stick a cheap dime store thermometer into a glass of ice. To calibrate the freezing point of his cheap thermometer.

I thought he was insane, how could a cheap thermometer measure the cold we were working in. Well. if you your cheap measures 32F in a glass of ice. It is correct at - 40F.
Guess what folks the ICE AGE was climate change!!
Climate the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period!!
Epiphany?
Quoting 72. aquak9:

I hear there's some big ones in DC...

But do they FLY!!!
Quoting 71. RobertWC:



Austin 1968, white flying cockroaches.

Worst. Concert. Ever.
Quoting 95. gulfbreeze:


But do they FLY!!!

Yes, and on our dime.
Quoting 96. Misanthroptimist:


Worst. Concert. Ever.


I was in the light show, you are completely correct.
Quoting 97. Misanthroptimist:


Yes, and on our dime.

That's what freaks some people out is the first time they see a flying roach!!
Quoting 85. riverat544:

Bob Henson didn't mention it but we're also getting snow in the northwest. Here in the mid Willamette Valley it started snowing around 11 am and we have nearly 4 inches on the ground (outside my house) now with snow continuing to fall. It's expected to taper off overnight with a maximum depth around 5 inches. The cold weather will continue through Sunday but they don't expect a lot more snow accumulation after tonight. The temperature is 28F.


My bad! Thanks for the update. Some impressive snow-water-equivalent numbers ( > 200% of average for the date] are building up in the Cascades. It's good to see widespread pockets of > 100% throughout the West.

SWE Percent of Normal, 12/14/16
PlazaRed glad to hear you didn't get stuck in the mud here on the wet coast. I tried to get a good picture for you of the bog/trail I hiked recently but of course it was too dark. Anyway you just missed out, all the mud is now frozen and covered with beautiful snow 14° this morning 25° for a high (about an hour SE of Vancouver). Wait, there is still some mud in the swamp springs, and of course my dog tracked a bunch inside last night. The mud prevails!

The light show with flying roaches ....................
Let's go back to that time , I was with friends with James Franklin. He had a huge rusty Victorian birdcage. In it he glued a complete dead bird skeleton , sitting on the perch. With feed and water.
It was the most amazing thing I had ever seen.

Quoting 98. RobertWC:
"Best time of my life, I was kickin' ass and taking names . I went places, saw things, and met people you will never dream of." etc.
(end quote)
How funny! Just posting this so you know StormDrain is me. StormDrain blog is up and I was signed into that handle to post some Christmas music in my blog. plays Christmas music and responded to you because that handle did not have you on ignore as this one does.
This was long before Wille , and Waylon made Texas cool.

This guy made the entire thing possible ,

Quoting 105. Barefootontherocks:

Quoting 98. RobertWC:
"Best time of my life, I was kickin' ass and taking names . I went places, saw things, and met people you will never dream of." etc.
(end quote)
How funny! Just posting this so you know StormDrain is me. StormDrain blog is up and I was signed into that handle to post some Christmas music in my blog. plays Christmas music and responded to you because that handle did not have you on ignore as this one does.


What ??????????????
Quoting 84. LAbonbon:


Kind of curious, and hope you don't mind me asking, but how did you come to be in a cave in Cuba?

Several years ago, a bunch of us Americans and a handful of Europeans got a "Scientific Exploration" permit from our fine gov't, and spent about 3 weeks surveying caves with members of one of their outdoor clubs, teaching them how to use compass and clinometer, and take notes in a survey book. Beautiful country, great people. Oh, and good rum. :)

p.s. Welcome to the (semi-) arid West, and "hello!" From the other side of the Great Basin.
Up is down, lite is black, 2 plus 2 is 55.

This the world we live in.
Quoting 108. oldnewmex:


Several years ago, a bunch of us Americans and a handful of Europeans got a "Scientific Exploration" permit from our fine gov't, and spent about 3 weeks surveying caves with members of one of their outdoor clubs, teaching them how to use compass and clinometer, and take notes in a survey book. Beautiful country, great people. Oh, and good rum. :)

p.s. Welcome to the (semi-) arid West, and "hello!" From the other side of the Great Basin.

Sounds like a lovely time. And thanks for the welcome; I'm reading your posts and others from 'out West' much more carefully now, as I'm gradually learning the weather patterns around here :-)
Quoting 107. RobertWC:



What ??????????????
Perhaps the stray phrase confused you. Please see corrected version with extra phrase removed, which I was fixed immediately. You got a quote button hair trigger. Posting to make sure you understand the intent was to inform you SD and bf are the same person.

There's little blogging to be done here at wunderground. Used to be, but not now. For me, comments are writing practice. StormDrain blog is for playing music. You're welcome to drop some music there, I guess. For some reason I was not able place your handle on the banned list.
Quoting 56. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




I know. The ice pack is a disaster. If next year is like 2007 or 2012, the pack will be all but gone in the summer.
QUOTE:

88. RobertWC
3:24 AM GMT on December 15, 2016

My cold weather numbers -
Mineral Hot Springs , Colorado the first week of January, 1970. Altitude 9,000 feet. The commune had 10 wood burning stoves, our wood pile was aspen trees. A road was cut , we went and got the logs. Aspen burns like toilet paper, and has the BTU output of Jello. 
On January 1st 1971, we went to 55 below zero. For the next week our daytime high was 50 below . Bright clear days, and bright clear nights with winds speeds near zero. 
I moved to another commune at 10, 600 feet just across the valley , 2 years later. One night in it was 26 F at our cabin, and it was -45 F at Alamosa.

I worked on the condos at Crested Butte in the winter later on. We lived in Salida. We when we went home one night in December. It was - 60F at the Texaco gas station in Gunnison , it was 28 on the top of Monarch Pass.

Reply:
In the winter of '65, I wanted to experience walking at night in -60F... I walked about ¼ of a mile to the ACS tower in Delta Junction, Alaska...Wearing the very best Eddie Bauer down Parka, I was comfortable, but any exposed flesh was uncomfortable after about 5 minutes exposure... I was in Alaska working on the defunct Midas satellite detection system...Had to have head bolt heaters for cars there...
115. MahFL
Morning all.
Quoting 115. MahFL:

Morning all.

Good afternoon from front running Europe.
Chrissy lunch here in half an hour :)
Quoting 103. plantmoretrees:

PlazaRed glad to hear you didn't get stuck in the mud here on the wet coast. I tried to get a good picture for you of the bog/trail I hiked recently but of course it was too dark. Anyway you just missed out, all the mud is now frozen and covered with beautiful snow 14° this morning 25° for a high (about an hour SE of Vancouver). Wait, there is still some mud in the swamp springs, and of course my dog tracked a bunch inside last night. The mud prevails!



Thanks for your update on the Vancouver weather.
I'll be back there at about the end of February for a month or so. The snow was bad on I think the 5th of December in Gibsons, Roberts Creek area there was about 6 inches and we of course got stuck in it, I had to remember what it was like driving in the north of England in the snow to advise how to get out of it all.
After 30 days of rain with only one afternoon of fine overcast weather and being surrounded by trees up to 200 foot tall I was a bit under the weather to say the least.
We had to unload a shipping container onto the top of 2 foot of liquid mud at a farm, it had about 30,000 pounds of machinery in it. We built a raft of tree trunks which were lying about all over the place a bit like a massive snow shoe to stop it sinking into the mud, even then it sank about 8 inches. I fell in the mud and sank about 20 inches, could have drowned in the stuff, so I had to be craned out as well.
The west coast people there sure understand the mud factor.
I suppose you are glad some it is frozen for a few days now?
I thank the Master Team & all-you-bloggers who curate your stuff for the 'rest-of-us', tx bb.
Good Morning Folks; Winter has a firm grip on most of Conus today and tomorrow.....................


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

And a little bit of drought relief for the Tennessee Valley region over the past week:

During the first half of the U.S. Drought Monitor week, one low pressure system tracked from the North Dakota/Minnesota border towards James Bay, Canada to the mouth of the St. Lawrence Valley, while a second low pressure system raced from the Lower Tennessee Valley to the mid-Atlantic coast. The first storm system brought moderately heavy snow to the Great Lakes region (especially downwind areas) and gusty winds to North Dakota and Minnesota, while the second storm was accompanied by widespread rainfall. During the second half of the Drought Monitor week, another frontal system moved across the central and eastern Lower 48 states, bringing additional precipitation to those regions.

Current U.S. Drought Monitor

And another pending blow to environmentalists and climate scientists:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/12/trump-s-ch oice-interior-gets-mixed-reviews


By picking Representative Ryan Zinke (R–MT) to be secretary of the Department of the Interior, as the media have widely reported, President-elect Donald Trump is tapping into two common, and sometimes conflicting, attitudes toward federal lands in the rural West.

A hunter raised in northwestern Montana, not far from the peaks of Glacier National Park, Zinke (pronounced “zeenkee”) has won plaudits from some conservation groups for pushing to keep federal lands in federal control and protect access for hunting and recreation. At the same time, he’s an ally of the fossil fuel industry who has railed against limits set by the Obama administration on coal mining and oil and gas drilling on those same federal holdings. Zinke has also questioned the science behind climate change.

Pegasus launch was good. The eight Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) UM satellites for monitoring hurricanes were deployed successfully.
Is this site down again, or is nobody posting? Hellllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll lllllllllllllllllooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
124. elioe
I was kind of surprised, how the Arctic temperatures managed to go down so rapidly. But now they have stopped to the 250 K - 255 K range, typical of last winter.



And Climate Reanalyzer shows, that the strip of ocean near 85 N, extending through all Eurasian longitudes, that had a sea ice concentration of 60 - 90 %, is now getting pretty close to 100%. So it seems, that no sudden change happened after all, no tipping point was reached. But I still believe that sooner or later, the halocline will get destroyed, lol.
My WU weather is not downloading today; the problem started last night.
At the end of the day, and this is my personal opinion, I think that the United States would be better served in the future by instituting aggressive policies towards renewable energies (including incentives for US automakers and the public to manufacture and buy into electric vehicles and the like) as a means of extricating the US from oil dependence/geopolitical issues in the Middle East versus choosing instead to move towards a domestic drilling and digging posture to accomplish the same result. Unfortunately, oil still rules the day (and the planet) in terms of global economics in spite of the fact, even if you disregard the threat of the Co2 factor, that coal and oil are limited resources that are going to run out at some point in time in the coming decades. Short-term profit over long-term benefits is part of of the capitalist ideology that China and Russia also bought into, when they abandoned Communism (which does not work economically and which will be regarded as a small "hiccup" in the annals of political time), as a means of catching up to the United States.

The irony now is that we now trying to play catch-up with China in many ways which might explain to a degree why the new administration might be seeking a stronger alliance with Russia in the future (which includes the joint drilling deals in Arctic regions forged between the Russian State Oil Production Company and Exxon-Mobile).......................I am a Cold War baby and Russia was always the enemy when I grew up but If you live long enough you see a lot of strange things.
Making the loss of Rapidscat a little less painful...

GPS captures wind speed

Once in orbit, CYGNSS's micro-satellite observatories will receive direct and reflected signals from Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. The direct signals pinpoint CYGNSS observatory positions, while the reflected signals respond to ocean surface roughness, from which wind speed is retrieved.

“This mission will help us get a better idea of the intensity of tropical cyclones,” said Frank Peri, director of the Earth Systems Science Program Office (ESSPO), based at NASA’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia.


We got down to zero overnight. Now with the sun shining, the temperature is warmer. .. about 1° F. (Chicagoland.)
I couldn't get on the blog last night after 9:00 p.m. (The weather is still not showing.) That's why there were so many quiet hours on the blog. No, it's not the old computer causing problems.
130. vis0

Quoting 80. aquak9:

S'posed to be 73 here Friday, 37 Saturday and 9 overnight Saturday/early Sunday.

and 9 overnight

NINE is not a temperature!! NO!!!

Nine is, like, a pile of chicken wings.
Let me get this strahhate... 9 chicken wings during a over-nite cold spell

 

...na-na-na-na-na-nnyum na-na-na-na-na-nayum na-na-na-na-na-nayum


For Northern USofA regions::
WIND  i think will be tops do not head towards seemingly frozen lakes.  The wind might just quick freeze the surface making it (surface) look solid NOT to mention it might blow anyone from the edge of the lake where if ice broke under ones feet/body its only a 3-4 inch drop (NOT fun but survivable) to being blown deep into the lakes center (no matter how strong one is one cannot grab onto ice) where THEN the ice breaks and one become one painful (like on fire)  popsicle.
Arctic air was delayed (no surprise it's a general bias here) coming into the Mid Atlantic but it started pouring in around 6AM here in College Park MD. Full sun, temps mid 20s, probably slowly declining all day even though we have no snow cover here or for hundreds of km upstream.

Of course any comments about how cold it is have to be suffixed by the qualifier

"for here".

The Mid Atlantic is usually pretty mild compared with the same latitudes west of the appalachians. Payback for them comes when we get cold air damming and they don't. In summer we also get downsloping with westerly flow, adding a few unwanted degrees to daytime highs and slightly suppressing thunderstorms.
G'morn from the AGU conference in San Francisco.

well it looks like mother nature is gonna try and kill me before Christmas this year

Weather advisory in effect for:
City of Toronto
Winter Travel Advisory.

An intense band of snow is expected to move through the area early this afternoon. Brief heavy snow and blowing snow may produce whiteout conditions making travel hazardous for a time this afternoon. Snow may quickly accumulate on roads with a quick 2 to 4 cm possible.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

Special weather statement in effect for:
City of Toronto
Another significant snowfall on the way Friday night into Saturday.

A Colorado low is expected to bring a large shield of snow with it, with snow arriving Friday night then continuing into Saturday. Such weather systems typically bring 15 to 20 centimetres of snow with them, and this one appears to be no exception.

Latest indications suggest 15 to 20 cm of snow may fall near and north of a line from near Grand Bend - Waterloo Region - Peterborough - Ottawa by Saturday evening. In areas closer to Lakes Erie and Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, the snow may change over to rain for a few hours, limiting snowfall amounts to the 5 to 15 cm range.

There remains some uncertainty to the exact track of this low. A small change in the track will affect the location of the heaviest snow, and whether or not the snow changes over to rain.

This snowstorm is expected to cause widespread poor winter travel conditions Friday night and Saturday.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
.....If you live long enough, you see a lot of strange things.

Well, in my 56.92 years alive on Earth, I have NEVER witnessed anything like the sour milk being poured onto reality like this incoming Admin is creating.

We have crossed over into a really bad Rod Serling opening.

We don't have to imagine,...

It is here..

Hopefully we will avoid the werd behind Rod.



Forecast Sunday high of -1° F. Low of -12°. This forecast is from Unisys, since WU isn't working for me.
134. Patrap
10:08 AM EST on December 15, 2016

I modified that statement below to include the fact that I was a Cold War baby (and my Father was a cold war Warrior) and that Russia was always the enemy........................I know that you understand my Friend why I am so concerned as to what is currently happening.................................. :)
Quoting 72. aquak9:

I hear there's some big ones in DC...


We do have American Cockroaches here which grow to about 1.5" and yes they fly (so do the small german cockroaches that infest buildings). But they aren't as common as further south.

Our vermin are warm blooded and take campaign contributions.
Quoting 124. elioe:

I was kind of surprised, how the Arctic temperatures managed to go down so rapidly. But now they have stopped to the 250 K - 255 K range, typical of last winter.



And Climate Reanalyzer shows, that the strip of ocean near 85 N, extending through all Eurasian longitudes, that had a sea ice concentration of 60 - 90 %, is now getting pretty close to 100%. So it seems, that no sudden change happened after all, no tipping point was reached. But I still believe that sooner or later, the halocline will get destroyed, lol.
So you see no difference between the 2016 to-date graph you showed, and this, the 2015 version?



Sure, compare a temporary 2015 spike with a temporary 2015 dip, and you're bound to find a few overlaps. But the data quite clearly show that there's really no comparison between 2015 and 2016 from, say, Day 250 onward,

So far as any "tipping points", it's often difficult to tell until the tipping is complete. But I'll say this: there's never been a year with so little Arctic ice. Not even close. For instance, here's a graph showing YTD NH extent anomalies compared to the previous decade:



There are about a million others that reflect similar stories, and tell scientists the same thing: we have entered a new realm. And all the nonsensical claims that "nothing's changed" will ever invalidate that.
Quoting 138. Neapolitan:

So you see no difference between the 2016 to-date graph you showed, and this, the 2015 version?



Sure, compare a temporary 2015 spike with a temporary 2015 dip, and you're bound to find a few overlaps. But the data quite clearly show that there's really no comparison between 2015 and 2016 from, say, Day 250 onward,

So far as any "tipping points", it's often difficult to tell until the tipping is complete. But I'll say this: there's never been a year with so little Arctic ice. Not even close. For instance, here's a graph showing YTD NH extent anomalies compared to the previous decade:



There are about a million others that reflect similar stories, and tell scientists the same thing: we have entered a new realm. And all the nonsensical claims that "nothing's changed" will ever invalidate that.



From a Vulcan I met once..

"Patrick, you cannot make poo, a pie."
Quoting 138. Neapolitan:

So you see no difference between the 2016 to-date graph you showed, and this, the 2015 version?



Sure, compare a temporary 2015 spike with a temporary 2015 dip, and you're bound to find a few overlaps. But the data quite clearly show that there's really no comparison between 2015 and 2016 from, say, Day 250 onward,

So far as any "tipping points", it's often difficult to tell until the tipping is complete. But I'll say this: there's never been a year with so little Arctic ice. Not even close. For instance, here's a graph showing YTD NH extent anomalies compared to the previous decade:



There are about a million others that reflect similar stories, and tell scientists the same thing: we have entered a new realm. And all the nonsensical claims that "nothing's changed" will ever invalidate that.


I think that is slightly too harsh over elioe's remark. I interpreted it rather like 'whew, 't was close but it didn't happen this year at least' or something to that effect.
Otoh the tipping point re Arctic sea ice has probably been passed around the year 2005. Area, extent and esp. volume graphs show that in fact Arctic sea ice can only exist as seasonal ice during the very climate of last decade. Of course, what is there has to melt away (into single season ice) still and that is process we are seeing now.
Quoting 140. cRRKampen:


I think that is slightly too harsh over elioe's remark. I interpreted it rather like 'whew, 't was close but it didn't happen this year at least' or something to that effect.
I think you don't know elioe very well. ;-)
My solar heaters are not warm enough to turn-on yet. It's 4° outside, and sunny. They turn-on when the internal temperature reaches 92° F, and turn off when it goes down to 72°. They'll be on soon.
I had better get myself off to work.
143. elioe
Quoting 138. Neapolitan:

So you see no difference between the 2016 to-date graph you showed, and this, the 2015 version?


Yes, I see a difference. Consistent with gradual climate change. You can look at even older versions too. The temperatures followed previously an almost sinusoidal curve. Recently, the temperatures have begun to exhibit a more plateau-like pattern during winter. The plateau itself rising in temperature as years go by. Extrapolating from that behaviour, for a time in November, it seemed for me that such plateau would be in 260-265 K range this year. That would have been pretty abrupt.
144. elioe
Quoting 141. Neapolitan:

I think you don't know elioe very well. ;-)


I think you don't know physics and thermodynamics well enough to understand, that using own brains to make analyses, instead of continuously presenting links to studies and blogs, does not mean, that one is a climate denialist.
9:39 a.m. the solar heaters just turned-on.
Our Soo Cal storm still on track per forecasters

Looks like the old days are gone forever, the days of arctic outbreaks that would dive straight south from Yukon down Montana, well into the Rockies and plains and into Texas. Now, they just go east with the jet stream and never make it deep into the heart of Texas. Climate change. Jet streams affected now.
Quoting 141. Neapolitan:

I think you don't know elioe very well. ;-)

I don't. I respond to a post's content in the first place and I happen to remember this particular post of elioe's as a follow-up on some posts on Arctic temp of a week, or two, ago, where I also responded.
I have no speculations further. Except I found elioe definitely no candidate for the iList.
Quoting 142. ChiThom:

My solar heaters are not warm enough to turn-on yet. It's 4° outside, and sunny. They turn-on when the internal temperature reaches 92° F, and turn off when it goes down to 72°. They'll be on soon.
I had better get myself off to work.


When managing greenhouses and cold frames, and grow tunnels, the period from late November to early February is made easier by guaranteed weak sun. Immediate ventilation when the sun is out is not critical, you have time to respond and get the vents open and reduce the temperature.

About Februay 10 the sun starts to get significantly stronger and an unventilated structure reaches temperatures that are harmful or lethal to plants. At that time you must have vents open when the sun is out (and close them when the sun goes behind clouds or sets).

In the garden if you put clear plastic over plants in December they will warm to perhaps 80F and be okay (except for losing hardiness or the consequences of warming from 25F or so to 80F in an hour). But if you do this in February they will be killed by the over 100F temperatures generated at that time of year.
Quoting 148. RitaEvac:

Looks like the old days are gone forever, the days of arctic outbreaks that would dive straight south from Yukon down Montana, well into the Rockies and plains and into Texas. Now, they just go east with the jet stream and never make it deep into the heart of Texas. Climate change. Jet streams affected now.

Same kind of thing dried up the Levant.
7 Day for Fort Myers, I heard someone say something about Winter but I don't see any proof of it down here.
There is a warm-up coming again in the longer term for the Eastern tier of the US once the current "break" in the jet, now over the North Pacific, arrives back over the US closer to Christmas but polar air will still be around the Southern Plains region:



6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability




Quoting 129. ChiThom:

I couldn't get on the blog last night after 9:00 p.m. (The weather is still not showing.) That's why there were so many quiet hours on the blog. No, it's not the old computer causing problems.

I'm quite impressed that you're successfully using an 8-year-old computer. Re:WU - it was godawful slow last night, and got a few error messages trying to open it. No issues for me this morning, though.
Quoting 148. RitaEvac:

Looks like the old days are gone forever, the days of arctic outbreaks that would dive straight south from Yukon down Montana, well into the Rockies and plains and into Texas. Now, they just go east with the jet stream and never make it deep into the heart of Texas. Climate change. Jet streams affected now.


Or they come down over Soo Cal now and turn back north before getting to Texas....same thing though....jets changing. It's been getting quite nippy at times in Soo Cal when that jet bottoms out by us and then heads northeast.
Why is Wunderground using Mapbox for imagery..... smh
157. MahFL
Florida just had it's driest November ever, 0.31in ave. Statewide.
Gosh what a slanted headline. Any record high is met with headlines screaming about "record, all-time, never-hotter-ever, historical heat!!" while a major cold snap is described as "non-historic".

And folks wonder why the credibility of the scientific community is questioned by the public.
Quoting 157. MahFL:

Florida just had it's driest November ever, 0.31in ave. Statewide.


Yeah, we had 0.0" here in Fort Myers.
It's only rained 1 time for about 10 minutes in two months (since October 15th) here.
160. MahFL
Quoting 158. rdstoll:

Gosh what a slanted headline. Any record high is met with headlines screaming about "record, all-time, never-hotter-ever, historical heat!!" while a major cold snap is described as "non-historic".

And folks wonder why the credibility of the scientific community is questioned by the public.


When it's been so warm for years and goes back to ave, people think it's a record cold snap, when in fact it's just normal cold. I saw today some location had their kids going to school in -20f windchill, as that was not cold enough to close the schools.
Quoting 155. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Or they come down over Soo Cal now and turn back north before getting to Texas....same thing though....jets changing. It's been getting quite nippy at times in Soo Cal when that jet bottoms out by us and then heads northeast.


I remember as a kid watching TWC and seeing the temperature map of arctic air from Idaho and Montana and Wyoming being in the -30s and -40s and the temp gradient would dive straight down the spine of the Rockies into the Panhandle of TX and barrel thru the state. I actually thought it was normal back then because it happened every winter in the 1980s. Then when the 1990s came arctic air shifted east with jet stream and never really came down the pike like it used to, and it's carried over well into the 21st century.
See if this one works better.......tonights/tomorrows storm for Soo Cal

163. MahFL
This is the day to stay home lol :

"1116 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 NNE PARADISE 46.66N 85.03W
12/15/2016 E24.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

ROADS CLOSED WITH 3 COUNTY SNOWPLOWS STUCK.
THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT WAS 48
HOURS. "
Quoting 153. weathermanwannabe:

There is a warm-up coming again in the longer term for the Eastern tier of the US once the current "break" in the jet, now over the North Pacific, arrives back over the US closer to Christmas but polar air will still be around the Mid-West region:


That would be the Southern Plains/Western states (according to your image) not the MidWest.
Quoting 158. rdstoll:

Gosh what a slanted headline. Any record high is met with headlines screaming about "record, all-time, never-hotter-ever, historical heat!!" while a major cold snap is described as "non-historic".

And folks wonder why the credibility of the scientific community is questioned by the public.


The altered jet stream patterns, as documented by Dr. Jeanie Francis and her team, are still in play as you can see from the very warm Winters of the past several years (including Northern tiers of the US) and the recent record heat we were seeing before this current cold blast...................One current cold spell does not doom the science of AGW and altered jet stream patterns; the models have been predicting bitter cold spells and bitter heat spell swings for years now.

Quoting 164. daddyjames:



That would be the Southern Plains/Western states (according to your image) not the MidWest.


Correction coming and thanks.
Quoting 158. rdstoll:

Gosh what a slanted headline. Any record high is met with headlines screaming about "record, all-time, never-hotter-ever, historical heat!!" while a major cold snap is described as "non-historic".

And folks wonder why the credibility of the scientific community is questioned by the public.

Hilarious. I was hoping to see a few whiny posts like that. Made my day.
Quoting 160. MahFL:



When it's been so warm for years and goes back to ave, people think it's a record cold snap, when in fact it's just normal cold. I saw today some location had their kids going to school in -20f windchill, as that was not cold enough to close the schools.


It has to be much colder than -20f windchill to call off school around here. The kids would be on vacation half of the winter. The air temp here this morning was -21f and life went on as normal.
Quoting 152. Sfloridacat5:

7 Day for Fort Myers, I heard someone say something about Winter but I don't see any proof of it down here.



I am so jealous.
Quoting 161. RitaEvac:



I remember as a kid watching TWC and seeing the temperature map of arctic air from Idaho and Montana and Wyoming being in the -30s and -40s and the temp gradient would dive straight down the spine of the Rockies into the Panhandle of TX and barrel thru the state. I actually thought it was normal back then because it happened every winter in the 1980s. Then when the 1990s came arctic air shifted east with jet stream and never really came down the pike like it used to, and it's carried over well into the 21st century.


The 80s were the warmest decade of the 20'th century (until the 90s which eclipsed them}. Paradoxically the 80s also had more arctic outbreaks than any other decade. But arctic air damming up against the Rockies and blasting south is a part of Great Plains climatology down to Brownsville TX.


All three of the DCA subzero temperatures in the 1940-2016 period of record happened in the period 1982-1994

1/17/1982 1/21/1985 1/19/1994 . Christmas 1983 came close but did not quite break zero.
Quoting 119. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks; Winter has a firm grip on most of Conus today and tomorrow.....................


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database


Look at those jerks in Florida. Some day I will be a snowbird that goes to Florida for the winter.
Quoting 148. RitaEvac:

Looks like the old days are gone forever, the days of arctic outbreaks that would dive straight south from Yukon down Montana, well into the Rockies and plains and into Texas. Now, they just go east with the jet stream and never make it deep into the heart of Texas. Climate change. Jet streams affected now.


I'm not convinced this pattern won't recur even in a much warmer future world.
Quoting 124. elioe:

I was kind of surprised, how the Arctic temperatures managed to go down so rapidly. But now they have stopped to the 250 K - 255 K range, typical of last winter.



And Climate Reanalyzer shows, that the strip of ocean near 85 N, extending through all Eurasian longitudes, that had a sea ice concentration of 60 - 90 %, is now getting pretty close to 100%. So it seems, that no sudden change happened after all, no tipping point was reached. But I still believe that sooner or later, the halocline will get destroyed, lol.



your graph should trend upwards for the next "Wow" moment coming up in 5-6 days .


Quoting 152. Sfloridacat5:

7 Day for Fort Myers, I heard someone say something about Winter but I don't see any proof of it down here.



Payback will happen in the thousand days of August down there :-)
Quoting 171. Snacker2:



Look at those jerks in Florida. Some day I will be a snowbird that goes to Florida for the winter.



I came back to midlatitudes and winter. Would like to try Minnesota residence sometime but roots are here in DC after thirty years
Quoting 160. MahFL:



When it's been so warm for years and goes back to ave, people think it's a record cold snap, when in fact it's just normal cold. I saw today some location had their kids going to school in -20f windchill, as that was not cold enough to close the schools.



Minnesota state guidelines I believe call for closing schools when windchill reaches -30F.

My grandparents in Minneapolis kept my mother home when sensible temperature was below -30F (that only happened a few times). One one of those days one of her second grade classmates who was not kept home, froze to death and was found in a snowbank.
Quoting 132. Patrap:

G'morn from the AGU conference in San Francisco.




Don't take the escalators. Using the stairs help a lot more to burn off the beer. ;)
GFS has a cyclone developing north of AUS.



No landfall on the cards, but getting stronger as it moves SE:


WTH, No forecasts, No Email. Well at least the blog is still up...
Interesting split of the system according to Euro.



Maybe we'll get another Doppelgänger blob ...
Quoting 162. HurricaneHunterJoe:

See if this one works better.......tonights/tomorrows storm for Soo Cal




Time will tell how much we get but at least that is a nice forecast... (.77")
Quoting 176. georgevandenberghe:




Minnesota state guidelines I believe call for closing schools when windchill reaches -30F.

My grandparents in Minneapolis kept my mother home when sensible temperature was below -30F (that only happened a few times). One one of those days one of her second grade classmates who was not kept home, froze to death and was found in a snowbank.

I live in Mn. I believe some schools in the Metro (msp/stpl) call school off at -25f air temp and -40f windchill. In the rural part where I live these temps are nothing unusual. I am not sure when it is called off around here as most times they just start 2 hours late. When growing up I remember going to school with windchills in excess of -60f and air temps below -40f if you could get to school you went to school, now days things are much different
Quoting 144. elioe:



I think you don't know physics and thermodynamics well enough to understand, that using own brains to make analyses, instead of continuously presenting links to studies and blogs, does not mean, that one is a climate denialist.


I do not picture you as being a climate denialist. It would be foolish for anyone with your knowledge in Science to deny that the global climate is under a process of change now, and has been for the past several decades. I more see you as being the eternal optimist. The entire horizon is becoming overcast with a dark cloud and you point out a sliver of silver lining and then try to convince others that all will be fine. As for you thinking that there will be a future collapse in the halocine I can only restate that this would be a feedback of a changing climate and not an initiator of a changing climate. Were you to understand the consequences that our future generations will endure from a changing climate, that we have initiated, then I do not think that you would be so coy with your comments concerning this.
85 to 90 in Orlando this weekend. Sunday we may actually tag 90 or get very close to it. The blow torch is about to get underway across C & S FL this weekend with this though comes some afternoon thunderstorms each day so maybe several days of much needed late day rains.

Although weak the Euro is beginning to show El-Nino next Summer.



Quoting 152. Sfloridacat5:

7 Day for Fort Myers, I heard someone say something about Winter but I don't see any proof of it down here.



Good chances for rain beginning Sunday across Orlando maybe from pop up thunderstorms like we see in the Summer months.
Quoting 172. georgevandenberghe:



I'm not convinced this pattern won't recur even in a much warmer future world.


Indeed, the work of Dr. Francis of Rutgers suggests so.
Quoting 158. rdstoll:

Gosh what a slanted headline. Any record high is met with headlines screaming about "record, all-time, never-hotter-ever, historical heat!!" while a major cold snap is described as "non-historic".

And folks wonder why the credibility of the scientific community is questioned by the public.


Gosh, what a terrible grasp of historical meteorology.

A "major" cold snap? The reason why "non-historic" is in the title is because cold like this was not an infrequent occurrence over course of an average winter. We've had so many years of "abnormal" winters that now when we get something like this people (such as yourself) go "OMG! MAJOR COLD SNAP! NEW ICE AGE! GLUBULWERMINLOLWTF?".

Is it a cold snap? Yep. Major? Not really.
One a personal weather related note, I am going to bite the bullet next year and pay for some of the FSU Met School classes, as an adult audit student, for any classes that are taught in the evenings so that I can at least get the textbooks and sit in class and learn more about the weather; once they get to numeric and math issues I would be totally lost, but hopefully they might schedule some more introductory courses I can take over the next few years; quitting my current job and abandoning the financial responsibilities to my family and children to goo back to school to try to get an actual Met degree is not an option at the moment ................................... :)   
Quoting 187. gr8lakebreeze:



Indeed, the work of Dr. Francis of Rutgers suggests so.


If you've ever seen the roiling surface of a soap bubble in sunlight, you'll get some idea of where we're heading. With nothing really to keep warm and cold airmasses in their usual haunts, they're going to increasingly be able to meander/deform/etc. over the surface of the planet. Climate destabilization, swings to extremes.

The northern plains are a good place to experience this. Those combination severe thunderstorms/blizzards that can occur when it's 80F on one side of a front and below freezing on the other side are pretty amazing. In a warmer world, those types of phenomena may become a more regular occurrence, and across more regions.

We are living in interesting times (Chinese Curse).
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date:
12:00 PM EST Thursday 15 December 2016
Condition:
Drifting Snow
Pressure:
101.4 kPa
Tendency:
Rising
Temperature:
-9.1°C
Dew point:
-13.8°C
Humidity:
69%
Wind:
W 55 gust 68 km/h
Wind Chill:
-21
Visibility:
11 km
GFS keeps developing a Tropical system in the Bahamas and moving it WNW toward FL in 10 days. Not out of the question that with all the unusual heat across the Bahamas and FL coming that this heat could be followed by our next named system. Something to watch folks.

Christmas gift for S FL?



Key Term "Non-Historic". Cold snaps are warmer and last a shorter time now. (I know I am stating the obvious >_>)
Quoting 158. rdstoll:

Gosh what a slanted headline. Any record high is met with headlines screaming about "record, all-time, never-hotter-ever, historical heat!!" while a major cold snap is described as "non-historic".

And folks wonder why the credibility of the scientific community is questioned by the public.

The credibility of the scientific community is questioned by the public because the scientific community stubbornly insists in dealing with those annoying things called facts. It is not uncommon for these facts to conflict with widely held hopes and wishes, as well as favorite cash cows. More than a few souless individuals have made lucrative careers out of pandering to the aggrieved masses, reassuring them that no fact can stand up to a cherished belief.
Weather advisory in effect for:
City of Toronto
Winter Travel Advisory for this afternoon.

An intense band of snow is expected to move through the area beginning between 12:00 and 2:00 PM EST. Heavy snow and blowing snow are likely to produce whiteout conditions making travel dangerous at times. Snow may quickly accumulate on roads with a quick 2 to 4 cm likely.

Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions. Consider postponing non-essential travel.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 184. StormTrackerScott:

85 to 90 in Orlando this weekend. Sunday we may actually tag 90 or get very close to it. The blow torch is about to get underway across C & S FL this weekend with this though comes some afternoon thunderstorms each day so maybe several days of much needed late day rains.




Send a few embers from that torch up here please!!
Quoting 195. ACSeattle:


The credibility of the scientific community is questioned by the public because the scientific community stubbornly insists in dealing with those annoying things called facts. It is not uncommon for these facts to conflict with widely held hopes and wishes, as well as favorite cash cows. More than a few souless individuals have made lucrative careers out of pandering to the aggrieved masses, reassuring them that no fact can stand up to a cherished belief.

Brilliantly said!
199. elioe
Quoting 183. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I do not picture you as being a climate denialist. It would be foolish for anyone with your knowledge in Science to deny that the global climate is under a process of change now, and has been for the past several decades. I more see you as being the eternal optimist. The entire horizon is becoming overcast with a dark cloud and you point out a sliver of silver lining and then try to convince others that all will be fine. As for you thinking that there will be a future collapse in the halocine I can only restate that this would be a feedback of a changing climate and not an initiator of a changing climate. Were you to understand the consequences that our future generations will endure from a changing climate, that we have initiated, then I do not think that you would be so coy with your comments concerning this.


I'm trying to bring a sense of scale, to negative consequences, to positive consequences (yes, such things exist), and to the huge process of replacing fossil fuels. And to point out the geographical unevenness, how those consequences are distributed. Consequences, which members of future generations will experience, depend entirely on where they live, where they own property etc. And you can call me optimist, but humans have again and again shown their immense capability to adapt.

Collapse of halocline is a feedback, once again I reaffirm it, lol. Primarily, because global warming decreases size of ice cover, allowing winds to interact directly with free water surface. But you can also look at the weather pattern predicted at #173, a weather pattern that returns more and more often due to AGW. Such placement of low pressure in Arctic is not only going to bring warm air. It also drives salty Atlantic water into the Arctic, which also serves to erode the halocline.

Main point in the destruction of halocline is, that average winter temperatures in the vicinity of North Pole would increase by 25 - 30 degrees Celsius compared to 1981-2010, and water density would increase. AFAIK, no climate models are predicting so drastic changes. Consequences to atmospheric and oceanic circulation would be so enormous, that many regional projections, in various places of this planet, made by climate models, would have to be thrown into the trash bin.
Quoting 188. Xyrus2000:

A "major" cold snap? The reason why "non-historic" is in the title is because cold like this was not an infrequent occurrence over course of an average winter. We've had so many years of "abnormal" winters that now when we get something like this people (such as yourself) go "OMG! MAJOR COLD SNAP! NEW ICE AGE! GLUBULWERMINLOLWTF?".
Is it a cold snap? Yep. Major? Not really.

Obviously, the "High-Awareness" notion is necessary for those that love to get used to the new normal all too quickly.
Quoting 188. Xyrus2000:



Gosh, what a terrible grasp of historical meteorology.

A "major" cold snap? The reason why "non-historic" is in the title is because cold like this was not an infrequent occurrence over course of an average winter. We've had so many years of "abnormal" winters that now when we get something like this people (such as yourself) go "OMG! MAJOR COLD SNAP! NEW ICE AGE! GLUBULWERMINLOLWTF?".

Is it a cold snap? Yep. Major? Not really.


Cold like this remains typical of winters in North America. It's not unusual even in this "new normal" period.
From The Hill:

Greens push senators to reject Trump’s EPA pick

An environmental group is launching an advertising campaign to pressure senators to vote against President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to head the Environmental Protection Agency.

With a digital ad campaign worth at least $10,000, the Sierra Club is hoping to sway enough senators to keep Scott Pruitt, Oklahoma’s attorney general, from receiving the 51 votes he needs for confirmation.

The group is dubbing Pruitt “Polluting Pruitt,” emphasizing his skepticism of climate change science, his close work with oil and natural gas companies and his record of suing the EPA multiple times to try to block President Obama’s environmental agenda.

“Scott Pruitt’s record isn’t pretty,” Melinda Pierce, the Sierra Club’s legislative director, said in a statement.

“A self-proclaimed ‘leading advocate against the EPA’s activist agenda,’ he is unfit to head the Environmental Protection Agency, an agency charged with protecting all Americans from threats to their water, air, and health.”

Read more >>

---------------

Quoting 125. ChiThom:

My WU weather is not downloading today; the problem started last night.
Thanks
Quoting 195. ACSeattle:
The credibility of the scientific community is questioned by the public because the scientific community stubbornly insists in dealing with those annoying things called facts. It is not uncommon for these facts to conflict with widely held hopes and wishes, as well as favorite cash cows. More than a few souless individuals have made lucrative careers out of pandering to the aggrieved masses, reassuring them that no fact can stand up to a cherished belief.
From that I conclude that the news media are to blame. False equivalence, you know.
Quoting 175. georgevandenberghe:




I came back to midlatitudes and winter. Would like to try Minnesota residence sometime but roots are here in DC after thirty years
Please keep the cold up their, I love this warm weather were having this winter. If I want to see snow and the cold, I will travel to the Rockies, or Northern Appalachians. Hope you have a snowy, cold winter for the Holiday's.
Quoting 182. nymore:
I live in Mn. I believe some schools in the Metro (msp/stpl) call school off at -25f air temp and -40f windchill. In the rural part where I live these temps are nothing unusual. I am not sure when it is called off around here as most times they just start 2 hours late. When growing up I remember going to school with windchills in excess of -60f and air temps below -40f if you could get to school you went to school, now days things are much different
You can throw those wind chill numbers that you remember from long ago out the window.

The Ridiculous History of Wind Chill
Canadian meteorologists and not many other people used wind chill until the 1970s, when they and their fellow meteorologists began converting it to the familiar temperature equivalents that allow forecasters to say, "It's 21 degrees this morning, but it feels like 5 below out there."

That was a boon for TV meteorologists, but not for scientific accuracy. It turned out that the wind chills calculated using the original 1945 formula were—excuse the pun—overblown. So in 2001, the Joint Action Group on Temperature Indices (its real name!) introduced a new formula for the wind chill index.

The new numbers, still in use today, are based on a somewhat perverse experiment: Volunteers walked on a treadmill in a cold wind tunnel with sensors attached to the outsides of their faces and the insides of their cheeks to take temperature readings, which the experimenters used to calculate the rate of heat loss. Because of sensor placement in the experiment, our modern wind chill index is based on the wind speed at five feet in the air—average face height.

That still isn't the end of the story, because private weather services have now introduced proprietary wind chill formulas, like Accuweather's "RealFeel" and The Weather Channel's similar "Feels like." Both of those currently list colder equivalent temperatures for Chicago than does the National Weather Service.
Quoting 190. Xyrus2000:
If you've ever seen the roiling surface of a soap bubble in sunlight, you'll get some idea of where we're heading. With nothing really to keep warm and cold airmasses in their usual haunts, they're going to increasingly be able to meander/deform/etc. over the surface of the planet. Climate destabilization, swings to extremes.

The northern plains are a good place to experience this. Those combination severe thunderstorms/blizzards that can occur when it's 80F on one side of a front and below freezing on the other side are pretty amazing. In a warmer world, those types of phenomena may become a more regular occurrence, and across more regions.

We are living in interesting times (Chinese Curse).
You probably should cite a source for that. Strong claims needs strong evidence. Read that somewhere before.

Sure sounds good, though.
NASA Image of the Day : Hurricane forecasters will soon have a new tool to better understand and forecast storm intensity. A constellation of eight microsatellites, called NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System mission, or CYGNSS, got a boost into Earth orbit aboard an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket, deployed from an L-1011 aircraft.

Study: Warming could slow upslope migration of trees
Phys.org - Dec 15.

!!! Groundwater resources around the world could be depleted by 2050s
Phys.org - Dec 15.
New modeling of the world's groundwater levels finds aquifers - the soil or porous rocks that hold groundwater - in the Upper Ganges Basin area of India, southern Spain and Italy could be depleted between 2040 and 2060.
In the U.S., aquifers in California's Central Valley, Tulare Basin and southern San Joaquin Valley, could be depleted within the 2030s. Aquifers in the southern High Plains, which supply groundwater to parts of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico, could reach their limits between the 2050s and 2070s, according to the new research. By 2050, as many as 1.8 billion people could live in areas where groundwater levels are fully or nearly depleted because of excessive pumping of groundwater for drinking and agriculture, according to Inge de Graaf, a hydrologist at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden, Colorado.
"While many aquifers remain productive, economically exploitable groundwater is already unattainable or will become so in the near future, especially in intensively irrigated areas in the drier regions of the world," said de Graaf, who will present the results of her new research today at the 2016 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. (...)


* AGU FM16 - The future of the world's groundwater resources (Media Q&A) - Youtube video
** American Geophysical Union - Youtube videos
214. MahFL
Westwood, CA has had 3.6 in of rain since midnight. Up to 7in is forecast.
Quoting 158. rdstoll:

Gosh what a slanted headline. Any record high is met with headlines screaming about "record, all-time, never-hotter-ever, historical heat!!" while a major cold snap is described as "non-historic".

And folks wonder why the credibility of the scientific community is questioned by the public.


You should check your account security; some idiot is posting stupid comments under your name.
Quoting 211. bappit:

You can throw those wind chill numbers that you remember from long ago out the window.

The Ridiculous History of Wind Chill
Canadian meteorologists and not many other people used wind chill until the 1970s, when they and their fellow meteorologists began converting it to the familiar temperature equivalents that allow forecasters to say, "It's 21 degrees this morning, but it feels like 5 below out there."

That was a boon for TV meteorologists, but not for scientific accuracy. It turned out that the wind chills calculated using the original 1945 formula were—excuse the pun—overblown. So in 2001, the Joint Action Group on Temperature Indices (its real name!) introduced a new formula for the wind chill index.

The new numbers, still in use today, are based on a somewhat perverse experiment: Volunteers walked on a treadmill in a cold wind tunnel with sensors attached to the outsides of their faces and the insides of their cheeks to take temperature readings, which the experimenters used to calculate the rate of heat loss. Because of sensor placement in the experiment, our modern wind chill index is based on the wind speed at five feet in the air—average face height.

That still isn't the end of the story, because private weather services have now introduced proprietary wind chill formulas, like Accuweather's "RealFeel" and The Weather Channel's similar "Feels like." Both of those currently list colder equivalent temperatures for Chicago than does the National Weather Service.



I used the new windchill formula with the old one it was near -100f
Quoting 210. NativeSun:

Please keep the cold up their, I love this warm weather were having this winter. If I want to see snow and the cold, I will travel to the Rockies, or Northern Appalachians. Hope you have a snowy, cold winter for the Holiday's.


We won't. Christmas looks warm.
Climate scientists adjust as Trump builds team of oil allies
by Reuters, Thursday, 15 December 2016 16:58 GMT
SAN FRANCISCO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Climate scientists worried that President-elect Donald Trump will slash their budgets and sideline their research are entering survival mode, trimming the words "climate change" from study proposals, emphasizing business applications of their work, and safeguarding data that shows global warming is real. ...

Former Nasa chief scientist warns Trump over access to data
BBC, By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, 1 hour ago
Limiting access to federal research would do an "enormous disservice" to the US and the world according to former Nasa chief scientist. ...

Scientists are Saving Climate Data; This Is Why it Matters
Climate Central, Published: December 14th, 2016
In recent days, efforts have sprung up to archive climate data on federal sites. They've been spurred by fears that the Trump administration could take a hostile stance toward climate science and that budget cuts could make data less accessible.
While the administration hasn't said it's going to erase or curtail access to climate data, appointments to the Trump transition team and the views of his cabinet nominees have set alarms bells ringing. And with good reason. The data that NASA, EPA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey and countless other federal agencies collect is essentially the bedrock of scientific enterprise. ...


Details see links above.
Euro shows a Sub Tropical Storm and GFS shows a weaker system all near or in the Bahamas in 10 days potentially affecting FL after Christmas. Could get interesting as the NHC might be issuing 2's again next week for a area of interest.

MJO appears to be moving too so this might have some weight given all the heat around.



Not out of the question to see a landfalling tropical system in FL to end out December guys.

GFS shows a strong MJO signal across the Caribbean/Gulf/& SW Atlantic around the time the models begin showing a system organizing near the Bahamas

Quoting 218. barbamz:

Climate scientists adjust as Trump builds team of oil allies
by Reuters, Thursday, 15 December 2016 16:58 GMT
SAN FRANCISCO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Climate scientists worried that President-elect Donald Trump will slash their budgets and sideline their research are entering survival mode, trimming the words "climate change" from study proposals, emphasizing business applications of their work, and safeguarding data that shows global warming is real. (...)
"I think it is maybe really necessary to refocus what you are doing and how you are labeling it," said Andreas Prein, a scientist at the federally funded National Center for Atmospheric Research, who previously had changed the term "climate change" in a project for the oil industry and expects such linguistic twists to proliferate. ...
(...) (...) (...)

=========
Quoting 219. StormTrackerScott:

Euro shows a Sub Tropical Storm and GFS shows a weaker system all near or in the Bahamas in 10 days potentially affecting FL after Christmas. Could get interesting as the NHC might be issuing 2's again next week for a area of interest.

MJO appears to be moving too so this might have some weight given all the heat around.



Not out of the question to see a landfalling tropical system in FL to end out December guys.




A system making landfall in Florida on Christmas..

I've seen everything now.
Quoting 221. 999Ai2016:



If I was younger and a native English speaker I would like to launch a startup of special creative writing services right now ;-)
Sad, all that.

The whole fashion parade, so far:
Climate change denial in the Trump cabinet: where do his nominees stand?
Critics say the president-elect's picks represent 'unprecedented' influence from the fossil fuel industry. Their statements do little to dispel the notion
The Guardian, Mazin Sidahmed in New York, Thursday 15 December 2016 17.55 GMT
The Great Lakes were almost completely frozen over in 2014. We've had some very bitterly cold winters in the past few years across parts of the United States.

People are acting like the U.S. haven't seen any cold air in a long time.
911 Millibar Extreme Cat 4/5 Cyclone off the coast of Australia predicted from the GFS.
This would make it the strongest since Cyclone George in 2007.

Winter 2014,




Dr. Masters' mom sending him off to school back in the day...

Quoting 226. Sfloridacat5:

Winter 2014,

I think this speaks for itself:
I see now that most mets in the mid-atlantic region are shutting up about a "December to Remember".Again......seasonal weather is not anything to remember.Yes we will have two days out of this month where it didn't bother to reach the magical number of 32 on the mercury but that is not memorable by any means as December 1989 certainly makes this one look like child's play.
Don't forget the snowfall records during the Winter of 2015.
Here's an image from Boston's 108" seasonal snowfall record.

Quoting 228. Misanthroptimist:


I think this speaks for itself:




No one is starting a GW discussion. Just pointing out the fact that we still get Winter weather. And you only have to go back to 2014 for a very bitterly cold Winter.
People are acting like the U.S. hasn't had any cold Winter like weather in 20 years by the way they're acting about the current cold weather.
Quoting 193. isothunder67:

Key Term "Non-Historic". Cold snaps are warmer and last a shorter time now. (I know I am stating the obvious >_>)


I expect historic long lasting cold snaps before I retire in the next 20 years. THey remain part of our climatology. February 2015 comes to mind.

This current one isn't going to be historic here in the mid atlantic. A few portions of the upper and Central Midwest though may be looking at breaking date records with the combination of arctic air and deep fresh snowcover.
Quoting 232. georgevandenberghe:



I expect historic long lasting cold snaps before I retire in the next 20 years. THey remain part of our climatology. February 2015 comes to mind.

This current one isn't going to be historic here in the mid atlantic. A few portions of the upper and Central Midwest though may be looking at breaking date records with the combination of arctic air and deep fresh snowcover.



About 30 years ago, I did donuts in my pickup truck on a frozen lake in central Oklahoma. It got down below 0 at night with highs in the single digits.
Sub zero lows in Minnesota don't impress me. When it gets below zero in Oklahoma and Texas (which happens), you know the country is in the deep freeze.
Currently 63F in Reno (4400 ft), 45F at Lake Tahoe (6300 ft), 59 F at SFO (sea level) as a subtropical flux moves through California. Frontal band has been slow to move, pulling up virtually stationary over the Wine Country of the North Bay, giving them hours of moderate to heavy rain. We're getting a soaking rain over the central Bay right now. Satellite and map shows front offshore buckling into waves and the cold upper low several miles off to the west headed toward Central CA. Vigorous surface occluded low moving up from the southwest. Winds are strong and gusty, but not excessive for now around here.

From The Sacramento Bee:

Jerry Brown strikes defiant tone: ‘California will launch its own damn satellite’

Gov. Jerry Brown, rallying a room of scientists Wednesday with his most heated rhetoric yet on the topic, suggested California would defy the federal government should President-elect Donald Trump impede the state’s efforts to thwart climate change.

“We’ve got the scientists, we’ve got the lawyers and we’re ready to fight. We’re ready to defend,” he said to boisterous applause at the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco.

Brown struck a more forceful tone than he has since the election, suggesting the energy and enthusiasm in the room for him would be needed in the “battles ahead.”

“Keep it up,” Brown implored the gathering. “Don’t flag. We’ve got a lot of work to do.”

At one point, Brown warned against proposed budget cuts under the new presidential administration that could effectively eliminate earth-observing satellite programs.

He reminded the scientists that he earned his nickname, Governor Moonbeam, in his first governorship for proposing that the state launch its own communications satellite, and even had an ex-astronaut on his payroll as a space adviser. “I didn’t get that moniker for nothing,” Brown said.

“And, if Trump turns off the satellites, California will launch its own damn satellite,” he added. “We’re going to collect that data.”

He said if the federal government “starts messing with” the state’s renowned science facilities, such as Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “I am the president of the Board of Regents. I am going to say, ‘Keep your hands off. That laboratory is going to pursue good science.’ ”

Read more >>
Forecast from NWS, since WU is still fruit-loops...

Well at least we can post images and view the blog.
Today is the 225th anniversary of the ratification of the Bill of Rights. How well do you know the Bill of Rights? Take the quiz on comment #408 of my blog.

Should be here around 4PM (NWS)
Quoting 235. Xandra:

From The Sacramento Bee:
Jerry Brown strikes defiant tone: %u2018California will launch its own damn satellite%u2019

California, go! :-) And it's eye candy to see the satellite loop in post #234 with all the rain for Cali :-)

Meanwhile, unfortunately:
Red states ask Trump for quick action against climate rule
The Hill, By Timothy Cama - 12/15/16 03:47 PM EST

Good survey of horror and hope around the globe:
Breathe less - or ban cars: cities have radically different responses to pollution
When thick smog recently hit, Londoners were advised to avoid exercise, while Parisians got free public transport. Which is the best solution?
The Guardian, Thursday 15 December 2016 07.00 GMT
Here the global SST anomaly chart issued today; can't help but notice that the warmest SST anomalies are in the Gulf Stream off the US Eastern Seaboard right below, again, the cold pool anomaly off of Greenland........Just Sayin:






Quoting 219. StormTrackerScott:

Euro shows a Sub Tropical Storm ...

Euro 12z is an interesting run for Europe, too. Raises hopes of at least some movement in our stalled atmosphere on Christmas Eve. No winter weather at all, but maybe some fresh wind and rain?


Gusts and pressure.
Quoting 212. bappit:

You probably should cite a source for that. Strong claims needs strong evidence. Read that somewhere before.

Sure sounds good, though.


It's not my idea. :)

Sorry. Several people had already mentioned Dr. Jennifer Francis et al. and I was just continuing along those lines. I should have been clearer. :)
And the mysterious "warm" blob in the Pacific that was the subject of study and speculation earlier this year (September chart below) has quickly dissipated...................Good article on this issue linked below and it may be a contributing factor to some of the colder temps we are seeing this season so far in the Northern tier of the US and Canada:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/the-blob-pa cific-ocean-temperatures



 



From Media Matters for America:

Conservative Media Freak Out Over Facebook’s Plan To Address The Fake News Problem

Right-wing media figures attacked Facebook for announcing that it would partner with third-party fact-checking organizations like PolitiFact and The Associated Press to combat fake news. The freakout from conservative pundits follows their repeated attempts to hijack the term “fake news” in order to discredit mainstream news sources.

Facebook Announces Partnerships With Independent Fact-Checkers To Combat Fake News

Facebook’s International Fact-Checking Network Includes PolitiFact, Snopes.com, Wash. Post, Among Others. Facebook announced on December 15 that it is “partnering with organizations that have signed on to the International Fact-Checking Network fact-checkers’ code of principles to enable them to verify selected links being shared on Facebook.” So far, “Associated Press, PolitiFact, FactCheck.org, Snopes, The Washington Post, and ABC News” have signed on to the agreement. The organizations “will have access to a special online queue that will show links Facebook determined may be suitable for a fact check” and can “[rate] the content of the link as false” if they determine so, “thereby alerting users to potential factual issues.” Facebook’s vice president of product management for news feed, Adam Mosseri, noted that “Facebook is initially focused on attacking ‘the worst of the worst’ of fake news,” which he defined as “clear hoaxes that are intentionally false and usually spread by spammers for financial gain.” [BuzzFeed, 12/15/16]

Read more: Right-Wing Media Figures Lash Out At Facebook

----------

See also: Understanding The Fake News Universe - A Guide To Fake News Terminology

Quoting 199. elioe:



I'm trying to bring a sense of scale, to negative consequences, to positive consequences (yes, such things exist), and to the huge process of replacing fossil fuels. And to point out the geographical unevenness, how those consequences are distributed. Consequences, which members of future generations will experience, depend entirely on where they live, where they own property etc. And you can call me optimist, but humans have again and again shown their immense capability to adapt.


I am not qualified to speak to anyone concerning the halocline and will leave this out of our discussion. The text that I bold in your response is what I would really like to discuss with you. You are more than just the eternal optimist if you truly believe that the adaptability of humans will carry us through this and that it is just dependent on location, location, location. What you seem to not recognize as a real potential to threaten human adaptability success to our changing global climate is that there also needs to be enough species that human depends on, directly or indirectly, to also be able to adapt as well. When we lose enough species that we depend upon to sustain our existence we also lose our chance at being able to adapt. I do not think that that you have spent nearly enough time weighing the possibility of this outcome. We are currently witnessing another of this planet's mass extinction events and we are the cause of this extinction event. Apply your knowledge of Physics to this thought exercise. How do humans successfully adapt to a changing global climate when not enough other species are able to adapt with us?
Quoting 206. Xandra:




The proverbial Pollutician.
Quoting 220. StormTrackerScott:

GFS shows a strong MJO signal across the Caribbean/Gulf/& SW Atlantic around the time the models begin showing a system organizing near the Bahamas





Quoting 247. Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Also, adapting is cold comfort when cities are being destroyed (sea level rise) and people are dying (climate change induced famine). Some people will do okay, but it is kind of like saying for those who do okay: "I've got mine. You can get ... "
251. bwi
Quoting 241. weathermanwannabe:

Here the global SST anomaly chart issued today; can't help but notice that the warmest SST anomalies are in the Gulf Stream off the US Eastern Seaboard right below, again, the cold pool anomaly off of Greenland........Just Sayin:









Westerly winds off that extreme early snow and cold in Siberia seems to have dramatically cooled off the northern Pacific sea surface temps.

Note, this observation might be wrong, but it seems that way to me.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date:
5:36 PM EST Thursday 15 December 2016
Condition:
Light Snowshower
Pressure:
102.0 kPa
Tendency:
Rising
Temperature:
-9.0°C
Dew point:
-11.1°C
Humidity:
85%
Wind:
W 37 gust 50 km/h
Wind Chill:
-19
Visibility:
2 km

Quoting 199. elioe:

I'm trying to bring a sense of scale, to negative consequences, to positive consequences (yes, such things exist), and to the huge process of replacing fossil fuels. And to point out the geographical unevenness, how those consequences are distributed. Consequences, which members of future generations will experience, depend entirely on where they live, where they own property etc. And you can call me optimist, but humans have again and again shown their immense capability to adapt.

Yes we can adapt. One wild scenario has America with more dessert, less farming and Russia the new "bread basket of the world." Alligators in the Chesapeake bay. New York flooded because repeated disasters and high cost of insurance prevented folks from rebuilding. So they slowly moved back inland where it was cheaper to relocate.
Some feel Argentina will be far warmer in a few decades. England will have vineyards, the med will flood. What started out as the poor countries starving, expanded to others when they shut down exports of fruit and - GASP - coffee. Its not the world I want.
We can adapt. In my opinion terraformation of mars should take second place to fixing Earth.
Interestingly, when one mentions "adjusting the global thermostat" it was a general who answered with "That is a national interest question. When a nation, not mother nature, changes another countries climate there are possible ramifications needed rectification. "
Lindsey Sterling with Penatonix covering "Imagine Dragons Song"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eh-72yBP7sw
Link
Quoting 246. Xandra:

From Media Matters for America:

Conservative Media Freak Out Over Facebook%u2019s Plan To Address The Fake News Problem

Right-wing media figures attacked Facebook for announcing that it would partner with third-party fact-checking organizations like PolitiFact and The Associated Press to combat fake news. The freakout from conservative pundits follows their repeated attempts to hijack the term %u201Cfake news%u201D in order to discredit mainstream news sources.

Facebook Announces Partnerships With Independent Fact-Checkers To Combat Fake News

Facebook%u2019s International Fact-Checking Network Includes PolitiFact, Snopes.com, Wash. Post, Among Others. Facebook announced on December 15 that it is %u201Cpartnering with organizations that have signed on to the International Fact-Checking Network fact-checkers%u2019 code of principles to enable them to verify selected links being shared on Facebook.%u201D So far, %u201CAssociated Press, PolitiFact, FactCheck.org, Snopes, The Washington Post, and ABC News%u201D have signed on to the agreement. The organizations %u201Cwill have access to a special online queue that will show links Facebook determined may be suitable for a fact check%u201D and can %u201C[rate] the content of the link as false%u201D if they determine so, %u201Cthereby alerting users to potential factual issues.%u201D Facebook%u2019s vice president of product management for news feed, Adam Mosseri, noted that %u201CFacebook is initially focused on attacking %u2018the worst of the worst%u2019 of fake news,%u201D which he defined as %u201Cclear hoaxes that are intentionally false and usually spread by spammers for financial gain.%u201D [BuzzFeed, 12/15/16]

Read more: Right-Wing Media Figures Lash Out At Facebook

----------

See also: Understanding The Fake News Universe - A Guide To Fake News Terminology




Who'd a thunk it?
Looks like we could get a doozie!



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
246 PM PST Thu Dec 15 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS AND DESERTS...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific storm will move across Southern California overnight
and Friday, bringing widespread rain along with strong winds in
the mountains and deserts. Cool and dry weather will arrive behind
the storm this weekend with brisk offshore winds. Fair and only
slightly warmer next week with offshore flow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The Pacific storm is nicely seen on water vapor imagery off the
California coast centered at about 31N 129W. A plume of moisture,
an atmospheric river, lies ahead of the storm and will move across
Southern California overnight through Friday morning before
shifting to Southeast of the area late in the day Friday.
Strengthening West-Southwest wind fields, along with the
increasing moisture to some 200-350% of average, will lead to an
efficient upslope precip event.

Rain will increase this evening. Seeing some radar returns, mostly
mid level moisture increasing. Expecting showers to arrive in the
OC in the next couple of hours, spreading/developing east and
south through the evening. Intensity will pick up overnight,
especially in the upslope-favored locales with 1"+/hr rates
possible. The Friday morning commute looks to be extra slow with
rain-slicked roads expected along with reduced visibility due to
the rain and spray from traffic.

Hi-res models continue bullish on precip amounts, so have trended
amounts up for the coastal mountain slopes with amounts now over
4" forecast for the San Bernardino County mountains as well as the
San Jacintos of Riverside. Even the Santa Anas and northern San
Diego County mountains look to receive 2.5-3.5". Metropolitan
locales continue to look much less...with rain amounts of
0.50-1.00" forecast...similar to the previous forecasts. The
deserts look to average less than a quarter of an inch. Should
note that the hi-res NAM-based WRF shows maxima of 6-7" in the San
Bernardinos while the GFS-based WRF shows maxima there of just
over 5", so if those models verify, then max amounts could be
higher than currently forecast. However, sometimes WRF has a high
bias, so believe we have a solid QPF forecast.

Here is a link to the only Christmas song I ever wrote and recorded. It's an instrumental. Hope ya'll enjoy listening as much as I enjoyed composing it. But prolly not.

The Christmas Spirit Lives!
262. MahFL
Westwood, CA has now received 4in of rain since midnight.
When in San Francisco I highly reccomend stopping by wu headquarters.

A great group of people and so very friendly too.

It was truly a wunderful day.

Full circles, again.

Many thanks to wu and crew.

Back to Nola in the am.



264. SLU
"Paula?"



Boston officials are coordinating with shelters to get people off the streets. The Pine Street Inn is open all day Thursday, and shelter officials say nobody will be turned away.

Barbara Trevisan, communications director for Pine Street Inn, told WBUR's Newscast Unit that, despite their efforts, some people living on the streets will not come inside no matter how cold it is — and they are ready to help those folks as well.

"If they don't come in, we will make sure they have warm blankets, warm clothing, hot food, and we will check on them regularly," Trevisan said.

Related audio
Possibly Historic December Cold Snap Arrives
PlayAll Things Considered03:132 hours ago


Link

Hmmm, according to NWS and NPR this might be Historic weather???

Would this be a case of fake news?

Quoting 261. PensacolaDoug:

Here is a link to the only Christmas song I ever wrote and recorded. It's an instrumental. Hope ya'll enjoy listening as much as I enjoyed composing it.

The Christmas Spirit Lives!
Not bad; reminds me of the Baroque style of compositions that Ritchie Blackmore (Deep Purple and Rainbow) has been doing with Blackmore's Night for the last 20 years.  If you ever want to revisit the song and re-record a few parts and add some guitar drop me an e-mail on WU mail. I can drive out to P-Cola for a recording session and I can add some Blackmorish classical scales and licks with my Strat........I have been playing his stuff for years and have seen him live with Purple and Rainbow three times; however, I have to have my amp turned up to about 8 to get the right tone..........Just Sayin. 
269. elioe
Quoting 247. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I am not qualified to speak to anyone concerning the halocline and will leave this out of our discussion. The text that I bold in your response is what I would really like to discuss with you. You are more than just the eternal optimist if you truly believe that the adaptability of humans will carry us through this and that it is just dependent on location, location, location. What you seem to not recognize as a real potential to threaten human adaptability success to our changing global climate is that there also needs to be enough species that human depends on, directly or indirectly, to also be able to adapt as well. When we lose enough species that we depend upon to sustain our existence we also lose our chance at being able to adapt. I do not think that that you have spent nearly enough time weighing the possibility of this outcome. We are currently witnessing another of this planet's mass extinction events and we are the cause of this extinction event. Apply your knowledge of Physics to this thought exercise. How do humans successfully adapt to a changing global climate when not enough other species are able to adapt with us?


Location, location, location. Guess what? All members of all species live in a certain location, in which the local climate has to be suited for their needs. In a changing climate, that is the primary factor dictating, which species go extinct (in the wild, at least), and which survive. In essence: if the climate zone, which is suitable for an organism, does not migrate in a continuous path, the species is likely not to survive. E.g. species inhabiting mountainous parts of Madagascar. There are some other minor groups of "candidates for extinction". Such include very specialized organisms, like migratory birds, if they don't adjust the termini of their migrations to the new climate regime. And hard-shelled organisms of the ocean due to global ocean acidification. But the point is: none of those are obligatory to our existence. Apart for our gut bacteria (our internal climate isn't changing, lol), all other tasks in human-related ecosystems are either performed by organisms with very generic living condition criteria, or organisms, that are easily replaced by others. And if a certain ecosystem completely collapses, it's just one of many ecosystems, in which we can coexist with its set of organisms.

One exception: places which will experience such combinations of temperature and precipitation, that are not found anywhere in preindustrial climate (i.e. very hot), may not be able to get such diverse ecosystems as other places. As it may be, that there is no organism on this planet suited to fill a certain specific niche.
Toronto 'guerrilla' archivists to help preserve US climate data
BBC, 15 December 2016
Canadian "guerrilla" archivists will be assisting a rushed effort to preserve US government climate data. ...
On Saturday, volunteers will help select data they fear is most vulnerable to being lost, mapping the location of inaccessible environmental databases and building a project "toolkit" for other groups interested in preserving some of the roughly 75,000 publications on the sprawling EPA website. ....


I still have a hard time believing that this all is happening. Anyway, a good night, folks! And a safe trip home, Pat.
#260 - Joe

Wonder what they mean by 'efficient upslope precip event'?

If anyone knows, please share :)

(Again, it's probably obvious to many on here...)
Everyone have a safe weather evening and Christmas and Holiday wishes to everyone. I am working late in the Florida Big Bend and could not leave work because I forgot about the local town Christmas Parade this evening and was blocked in. Was waiting for the Parade to finish (looking at it through the window) then P-Doug posted the Christmas tune...........This confluence of events over the past hour finally got me in the Holiday spirit after a few hectic months between work and politics............Thanks for posting the song Doug......I have a real soft spot for musicians regardless of their politics.......................... :)
Quoting 261. PensacolaDoug:

Here is a link to the only Christmas song I ever wrote and recorded. It's an instrumental. Hope ya'll enjoy listening as much as I enjoyed composing it. But prolly not.

The Christmas Spirit Lives!



Quoting 269. elioe:
...But the point is: none of those are obligatory to our existence. Apart for our gut bacteria (our internal climate isn't changing, lol), all other tasks in human-related ecosystems are either performed by organisms with very generic living condition criteria, or organisms, that are easily replaced by others. And if a certain ecosystem completely collapses, it's just one of many ecosystems, in which we can coexist with its set of organisms...


This is incredibly naive, and completely untrue. A simple counter example: an invasive species infiltrating the US breadbasket. What happens then? Or forget the the invasive species and think about the consequences of the midwest becoming a near desert. What happens then? Do you think you can just magically start growing crops tailored to a particular region/climate/diurnal cycle on top of the Canadian Shield?

What about disease migration? Combine that with invasive species and the decrease in biodiversity and you got yourself a pretty gnarly problem as well.

When biodiversity collapses, so does ANY life that depends on that biodiversity to keep predators/diseases/etc. in check. Worse, as biodiversity decreases, they likelihood of larger ecological collapses increases (monocultures are extremely vulnerable to outside negative influences, see the banana for an example).

We depend on a stable climate a hell of a lot more than any other species on this planet. While humans would likely survive climate change, it would be exceptionally painful and certainly won't be pretty.
Quoting 261. PensacolaDoug:

Here is a link to the only Christmas song I ever wrote and recorded. It's an instrumental. Hope ya'll enjoy listening as much as I enjoyed composing it. But prolly not.

The Christmas Spirit Lives!
I like your composition PensacolaDoug.
Quoting 271. LAbonbon:

#260 - Joe

Wonder what they mean by 'efficient upslope precip event'?

If anyone knows, please share :)

(Again, it's probably obvious to many on here...)
It means more than the average amount of precipitation is, uh, precipitated out. That can happen when the moisture flow is directly against the mountains--a 90 degree angle. Also when unusually cold air in the mid and upper levels is present and increases lift. Or even better, both.
Quoting 253. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date:
5:36 PM EST Thursday 15 December 2016
Condition:
Light Snowshower
Pressure:
102.0 kPa
Tendency:
Rising
Temperature:
-9.0°C
Dew point:
-11.1°C
Humidity:
85%
Wind:
W 37 gust 50 km/h
Wind Chill:
-19
Visibility:
2 km

Meantime, in Edmonton..... minus 19c, with windchill to minus 27c.
Dread. Beastly. Cold. time for some anti-freeze...... cheers !
278. MahFL
Quoting 274. Xyrus2000:



We depend on a stable climate a hell of a lot more than any other species on this planet.


I would disagree with that, humans currently live in the coldest tundra to the hottest driest deserts. A change in temperature would have to be in the order of 15 to 20 C to make much difference. No current global warming models come anywhere near that.
Quoting 276. TheBigBanana:

It means more than the average amount of precipitation is, uh, precipitated out. That can happen when the moisture flow is directly against the mountains--a 90 degree angle. Also when unusually cold air in the mid and upper levels is present and increases lift. Or even better, both.

Thank you!
Quoting 269. elioe:



Location, location, location. Guess what? All members of all species live in a certain location, in which the local climate has to be suited for their needs. In a changing climate, that is the primary factor dictating, which species go extinct (in the wild, at least), and which survive. In essence: if the climate zone, which is suitable for an organism, does not migrate in a continuous path, the species is likely not to survive. E.g. species inhabiting mountainous parts of Madagascar. There are some other minor groups of "candidates for extinction". Such include very specialized organisms, like migratory birds, if they don't adjust the termini of their migrations to the new climate regime. And hard-shelled organisms of the ocean due to global ocean acidification. But the point is: none of those are obligatory to our existence. Apart for our gut bacteria (our internal climate isn't changing, lol), all other tasks in human-related ecosystems are either performed by organisms with very generic living condition criteria, or organisms, that are easily replaced by others. And if a certain ecosystem completely collapses, it's just one of many ecosystems, in which we can coexist with its set of organisms.

One exception: places which will experience such combinations of temperature and precipitation, that are not found anywhere in preindustrial climate (i.e. very hot), may not be able to get such diverse ecosystems as other places. As it may be, that there is no organism on this planet suited to fill a certain specific niche.


You miss another point. Climate change is not the main driver of specie extinction, at this point in time. Habitat loss, pollution, and poaching are the leading causes of species loss now. Climate change will do its biggest damage to species' survival probabilities later.

These are the 5 biggest reasons for specie loss happening now, according to Rainforest Conservation Fund.

Plants are also notoriously slow migrators and adapters. Any animal life depending on these plants suffer along with the loss of these plants.

I will reiterate what I said before. Should not enough species we need for our survival be able to adapt with us, then our efforts towards adaptation will fail. It really is quite that simple. You have not yet used your knowledge of Physics to explain an alternative outcome for us.
Quoting 277. pottery:


Meantime, in Edmonton..... minus 19c, with windchill to minus 27c.
Dread. Beastly. Cold. time for some anti-freeze...... cheers !
evening pot - 16c for overnight lows forecasted for here with winds 40kmh at times from nw it will be a cold night
Quoting 269. elioe:

(...) But the point is: none of those are obligatory to our existence. Apart for our gut bacteria (our internal climate isn't changing, lol), all other tasks in human-related ecosystems are either performed by organisms with very generic living condition criteria, or organisms, that are easily replaced by others. And if a certain ecosystem completely collapses, it's just one of many ecosystems, in which we can coexist with its set of organisms. (...)

environmentforbeginners.com - The Fragility of the Food Chain:
(...) Other than human misjudgment, pollution can play a similar role in the destabilization of the biodiversity. When one element such as water, soil, vegetation or air is affected by pollution, the animals that depend on the ecological area to survive will disappear from it and so will the rest of animals that feed on it.

The impact starts a chain reaction on the biodiversity which can hardly be contained. That is why climate change has a huge impact on the Earth's biodiversity, because it modifies the ecological niche of every living thing on this planet. The polar bear is a known example, as they see their hunting season reduced due to global warming. (...)

Basically, biodiversity provides everything humans need to survive: food, fresh air, clean water, clothing, medicine and material for shelter (different types of wood for example). It is considered for some people to be the most precious thing we have on earth. A rich ecological environment is indeed very complex, and is impossible for human to recreate. Genetic erosion is wiping out millions of years of evolution and a loss in biodiversity is not something we can bring back.


National Geographic - Importance of Biodiversity:
All species are interconnected. They depend on one another. Forests provide homes for animals. Animals eat plants. The plants need healthy soil to grow. Fungi help decompose organisms to fertilize the soil. Bees and other insects carry pollen from one plant to another, which enables the plants to reproduce. With less biodiversity, these connections weaken and sometimes break, harming all the species in the ecosystem. (...)

Radar showing rain along the entire CA coast from Pt. Reyes to the US-Mexico border. Rain has been moderate to occasionally heavy in the SF Bay Area for several hours. Surface low approaching from the southwest, looks to be headed toward Monterey or Big Sur. Plenty of cold, modifying Arctic air behind the frontal boundary, but plenty of subtropical air wafting in ahead of it. At 4:40 PM still 45F at Lake Tahoe.
284. MahFL
Quoting 271. LAbonbon:

#260 - Joe

Wonder what they mean by 'efficient upslope precip event'?

If anyone knows, please share :)

(Again, it's probably obvious to many on here...)


The mountains cause the clouds to rise and they cool with height and rain/snow more.
Quoting 255. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Wow. The tip end of the subtropical Pacific plume has reached Cape Hatteras.
there's a storm coming
Crazy weather this week in Denver. Monday and Tuesday were in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Yesterday was in the 20s. Today was 65 and Saturday were suppose to be 5 with a low near -10 before highs reaching the 50s again on Tuesday! The arctic outbreaks have been coming near here and resulting in some crazy temperature changes.
Quoting 278. MahFL:



I would disagree with that, humans currently live in the coldest tundra to the hottest driest deserts. A change in temperature would have to be in the order of 15 to 20 C to make much difference. No current global warming models come anywhere near that.


We don't grow food in those places. The Upper Midwest will cope with the current Arctic/snow/Arctic misery but it would be a different story if this was a year-round condition; the interior US & Canada would no longer be arable land. That global climate was 5-6C cooler than today.

Single-digit degrees Celsius in increase also has potential to change climate radically. Not a problem in raw temperature - most places - but that tends to model as things like a Western megadrought. Again, food goes bye-bye.
289. MahFL
Quoting 288. ProPoly:



We don't grow food in those places.


So this is a mirage eh ?

Quoting 278. MahFL:



I would disagree with that, humans currently live in the coldest tundra to the hottest driest deserts. A change in temperature would have to be in the order of 15 to 20 C to make much difference. No current global warming models come anywhere near that.
You miss an important point. To just take the one group you highlighted, humans living in the coldest tundra. Most of them depend for food on the reindeer that are, or have been, abundant, but with the changing climate long-dead reindeer that died of antrax thousands of years ago are thawing out and the anthrax germs are getting loose again. If the current population of reindeer die of anthrax they will deprive the people there of food, and probably also cause them to become infected and die from anthrax. The same sort of dependencies exist all over and climate change is endangering their livelihoods. We don't depend on reindeer, but something we do depend on will be affected similarly.
Quoting 289. MahFL:

So this is a mirage eh ?



Yes, it was : Saudi Wells Running Dry - of Water - Spell End of Desert Wheat
Bloomberg - Nov 2015.
292. MahFL
Tundra farming :

Quoting 276. TheBigBanana:

It means more than the average amount of precipitation is, uh, precipitated out. That can happen when the moisture flow is directly against the mountains--a 90 degree angle. Also when unusually cold air in the mid and upper levels is present and increases lift. Or even better, both.

In this case, the cold air is absent. A fairly stable but deep layer subtropical plume. As someone else points out, when the flow is perpendicular to the range, especially if it's accelerated by stiff winds aloft, the moist air is lifted and cooled via adiabatic cooling. You can see on the satellite loops how this leaves a clearcut rain shadow once the air crests the ridgeline and begins to descend and warm adiabatically, which induces evaporation.
294. MahFL
Quoting 290. CaneFreeCR:

If the current population of reindeer die of anthrax...


Simple, just go to the supermarket ! This one is in Greenland :P....

Quoting 291. 999Ai2016:


Yes : Saudi Wells Running Dry - of Water - Spell End of Desert Wheat
Bloomberg - Nov 2015.

Which makes their desire to raise oil prices again self-defeating since the price of wheat production everywhere includes the cost of energy, mostly oil. So in some degree, whatever they gain in oil revenues they'll lose in wheat costs.
296. MahFL
Quoting 295. BayFog:


Which makes their desire to raise oil prices again self-defeating since the price of wheat production everywhere includes the cost of energy, mostly oil. So in some degree, whatever they gain in oil revenues they'll lose in wheat costs.


"The global wheat market is now expected to be 9m tonnes in surplus"

Wheat surplus
297. MahFL
Meanwhile in California :

"104 MPH GUST REPORTED BETWEEN 3AM-5AM. REPORT SITE IS
NEAR THE OPENING OF LUNDAY LAKE CANYON. "
Quoting 296. MahFL:



"The global wheat market is now expected to be 9m tonnes in surplus"

Wheat surplus


How long do you expect a surplus wheat crop yield to persist? I ask you to be realistic in your answer since there is only so far that advances in farming techniques and technology will be able to carry us. Growing seasons are just that. A growing season. Do you so easily forget the Russian wheat shortage just a few years ago that led Russia to stop exporting its wheat and having a detrimental impact on countries that relied on Russia's wheat exports?
299. MahFL
Quoting 298. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



How long do you expect a surplus wheat crop yield to persist?


Permanently, as when the northern lands warm up they will be plowed too.
Quoting 299. MahFL:



Permanently, as when the northern lands warm up they will be plowed too.


You are not aware that wheat will only grow in areas with arable land? Even as the climate warms, you will not grow crops where the tar sands exist and where the melting ice exposes the bedrock that exists under it.
Quoting 275. TheBigBanana:

I like your composition PensacolaDoug.
Thankyou.
Quoting 268. weathermanwannabe:


Not bad; reminds me of the Baroque style of compositions that Ritchie Blackmore (Deep Purple and Rainbow) has been doing with Blackmore's Night for the last 20 years.  If you ever want to revisit the song and re-record a few parts and add some guitar drop me an e-mail on WU mail. I can drive out to P-Cola for a recording session and I can add some Blackmorish classical scales and licks with my Strat........I have been playing his stuff for years and have seen him live with Purple and Rainbow three times; however, I have to have my amp turned up to about 8 to get the right tone..........Just Sayin. 

I'm a big fan of loud! I really don't hear guitar in that one. I have several others that would benefit from tasteful guitar work. I'll send ya a link if you'd like to hear.

Starting to rain here...
304. MahFL
Quoting 300. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You are not aware that wheat will only grow in areas with arable land? Even as the climate warms, you will not grow crops where the tar sands exist and where the melting ice exposes the bedrock that exists under it.


Some lands could possibly be made arable, eg.

"Aran Islands: These islands off the west coast of Ireland, (not to be confused with the Isle of Arran in Scotland's Firth of Clyde), were unsuitable for arable farming because they were too rocky. The people covered the islands with a shallow layer of seaweed and sand from the ocean. This made it arable. Today, crops are grown there."
Yep. Fallon NAS is still showing 57*F. It's been in the low 60's since around noon. Oh, and bands of light/moderate rain moving through.

blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 234. BayFog:

Currently 63F in Reno (4400 ft), 45F at Lake Tahoe (6300 ft), 59 F at SFO (sea level) as a subtropical flux moves through California. Frontal band has been slow to move, pulling up virtually stationary over the Wine Country of the North Bay, giving them hours of moderate to heavy rain. We're getting a soaking rain over the central Bay right now. Satellite and map shows front offshore buckling into waves and the cold upper low several miles off to the west headed toward Central CA. Vigorous surface occluded low moving up from the southwest. Winds are strong and gusty, but not excessive for now around here.


Quoting 304. MahFL:



Some lands could possibly be made arable, eg.

"Aran Islands: These islands off the west coast of Ireland, (not to be confused with the Isle of Arran in Scotland's Firth of Clyde), were unsuitable for arable farming because they were too rocky. The people covered the islands with a shallow layer of seaweed and sand from the ocean. This made it arable. Today, crops are grown there."


The rugged Aran Islands

Aran Islands

Ireland’s Aran Islands: Bleak and Beautiful

I hope that you have a better example of what could become arable land than the Aran Islands.
307. MahFL
Quoting 306. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I hope that you have a better example of what could become arable land than the Aran Islands.


My point was the method, not the location.
An update from the mid Willamette Valley, specifically the hills of South Salem, OR at about 500 feet. We ended up getting about 4.5 inches of snow. The roads have packed snow except the heaviest traveled roads are mostly slush. Temperature got a little bit above freezing in the afternoon but as it cools down overnight the roads will get icy. We had a dusting of snow this afternoon. Looking ahead it will be partly sunny tomorrow with a high of 33, snow showers Saturday with another 1/2 inch of snow possible. It'll warm up a bit on Sunday then Monday the high will get into the low 40s which will melt the snow out pretty fast.
Quoting 307. MahFL:



My point was the method, not the location.


Perhaps you should use an example of where the method worked, regardless of location? I am certainly not the one that picked the location.
The Sunshine State?

Quoting 298. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



How long do you expect a surplus wheat crop yield to persist? I ask you to be realistic in your answer since there is only so far that advances in farming techniques and technology will be able to carry us. Growing seasons are just that. A growing season. Do you so easily forget the Russian wheat shortage just a few years ago that led Russia to stop exporting its wheat and having a detrimental impact on countries that relied on Russia's wheat exports?


Not being sarcastic in this response, even though it may seem that way.

Alaska is getting an expanded growing season, so I can see Canada, especially the great uninhabited Northern part, and Alaska (also sparsely populated) getting more and more farms as global warming continues. I see a lot of crop shifting in the future of the world.

FWIW, I do believe the shifting is worse even if some of the consequences appear to be good in the short term.

312. MahFL
Quoting 309. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Perhaps you should use an example of where the method worked, regardless of location? I am certainly not the one that picked the location.


You misunderstand, the point is it's improving land that might be marginal arable, that was the point, remember a lot of crop yield these days is due to massive amounts a fertilizer being used.
You could also use hydroponics where the in place soil is no good, but the climate is suitable.
Id like to order some cold weather please. With fries.
Quoting 278. MahFL:



I would disagree with that, humans currently live in the coldest tundra to the hottest driest deserts. A change in temperature would have to be in the order of 15 to 20 C to make much difference. No current global warming models come anywhere near that.


Incorrect. Most of the world's population live in places that lack the technology to deal with anything much beyond their norms. An average temperature increase of just a few degrees would render a chunk of the tropics uninhabitable, as even night time temperatures would not drop low enough to stave off heat stroke.

In addition, people in the regions (outside the stray researcher) depend on their local environment to provide sustenance. A few degrees of change is more than enough to devastate region (or weather patterns), and there are plenty of examples where regional climate change wiped out civilizations.

The problem isn't humans adapting. It's the cost. No, you aren't going to provide a massive scale agricultural production system on the Canadian shield in any cost efficient manner. No, you aren't going to survive persistent 90F+ temperatures 24/7 without some form of climate control. Humans will survive, but who and how many are gambles.
Quoting 312. MahFL:



You misunderstand, the point is it's improving land that might be marginal arable, that was the point, remember a lot of crop yield these days is due to massive amounts a fertilizer being used.
You could also use hydroponics where the in place soil is no good, but the climate is suitable.


You're not going to use hydroponics to feed billions of people, and land improvement doesn't mean crap will grow there. Invasive species, diurnal cycles, etc. all need to be taken into account. not to mention whether or not the climate would actually be stable enough to support a large scale operation.

There is nothing trivial about mass agriculture.
316. elioe
Quoting 274. Xyrus2000:



This is incredibly naive, and completely untrue. A simple counter example: an invasive species infiltrating the US breadbasket. What happens then? Or forget the the invasive species and think about the consequences of the midwest becoming a near desert. What happens then? Do you think you can just magically start growing crops tailored to a particular region/climate/diurnal cycle on top of the Canadian Shield?

What about disease migration? Combine that with invasive species and the decrease in biodiversity and you got yourself a pretty gnarly problem as well.

When biodiversity collapses, so does ANY life that depends on that biodiversity to keep predators/diseases/etc. in check. Worse, as biodiversity decreases, they likelihood of larger ecological collapses increases (monocultures are extremely vulnerable to outside negative influences, see the banana for an example).

We depend on a stable climate a hell of a lot more than any other species on this planet. While humans would likely survive climate change, it would be exceptionally painful and certainly won't be pretty.


And that went past my comment entirely. The point is: humans will survive climate change. My earlier comment already acknowledged, that the consequences depend on location. U.S. breadbasket is not the only place where humans live. As such, the entire local ecosystem can crash, or the place can become desert, humankind will survive. What happens to local human population, depends mostly on political circumstances. And we can eat other food than bananas. Hundreds of different plants and animals. As such, we don't "depend on a stable climate a hell of a lot more than any other species on this planet". And the increased vulnerability of crops to disease due to loss of genetic variation is not even related to climate change.

And even though this entire reply missed the contents of my comment: no, we can not "magically" begin growing crops on Canadian Shield, even if the climate becomes suitable. But when it comes to diurnal cycle, suitable varieties would be found at least in Europe. The major obstacle is, that for most of the area, soil would have to be brought in. Costly, but not impossible.

Quoting 280. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You miss another point. Climate change is not the main driver of specie extinction, at this point in time. Habitat loss, pollution, and poaching are the leading causes of species loss now. Climate change will do its biggest damage to species' survival probabilities later.

These are the 5 biggest reasons for specie loss happening now, according to Rainforest Conservation Fund.

Plants are also notoriously slow migrators and adapters. Any animal life depending on these plants suffer along with the loss of these plants.

I will reiterate what I said before. Should not enough species we need for our survival be able to adapt with us, then our efforts towards adaptation will fail. It really is quite that simple. You have not yet used your knowledge of Physics to explain an alternative outcome for us.


I'm not missing that point. You didn't discuss other anthropogenic extinctions in your comment, to which I responded. Only climate change-related. Plants are slow to move with climate, by their natural means, but that doesn't apply to those plants humans utilize most. We tend to bring them with us.

And why would I try to use physics to answer a question, which is biological, not physical? Why did you even ask?

------------------------------------------------- -----------------

I guess, that if people want to see doom, they see doom. It's 6 a.m., time to go to sleep, good night!
Quoting 311. Dakster:



Not being sarcastic in this response, even though it may seem that way.

Alaska is getting an expanded growing season, so I can see Canada, especially the great uninhabited Northern part, and Alaska (also sparsely populated) getting more and more farms as global warming continues. I see a lot of crop shifting in the future of the world.

FWIW, I do believe the shifting is worse even if some of the consequences appear to be good in the short term.




I agree, Dakster. There will be marginal areas that will be suitable for marginal crop yields as the areas become warm enough to support a long enough growing season. I would also suspect that these regions would also be more prone to early frosts and freezes than areas that are now used for growing crops. I know that you are not suggesting that all areas that become warm enough to support crops will also meet the other criteria needed for growing crops. I would be very surprised if enough of the more northern latitudes would become suitable for crops to replace the crop lands that are lost to regions that will become too warm or too arid for the crops grown there now. It is not all a losing proposition, at least not in the beginning. We are entering into unknown territory with this and there are things that will only be revealed to us as it happens. We are left to look at the probabilities until we know the realities in some aspects of this.
Quoting 312. MahFL:



You misunderstand, the point is it's improving land that might be marginal arable, that was the point, remember a lot of crop yield these days is due to massive amounts a fertilizer being used.
You could also use hydroponics where the in place soil is no good, but the climate is suitable.


I did not miss the point. You did not show an example of how land that is not arable will become arable as the climate continues to warm. If the ground under the ice is not arable it does not become arable simply because the ice melts out.
Quoting 310. HurricaneHunterJoe:

The Sunshine State?




That's California. :p

You're not complaining, right?

Haven't looked too often, but that's the most active radar I've seen in a long time. Also, I don't know if that's a saved gif or real-time, but hells yeah! La Nina!!! Lol
Quoting 317. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I agree, Dakster. There will be marginal areas that will be suitable for marginal crop yields as the areas become warm enough to support a long enough growing season. I would also suspect that these regions would also be more prone to early frosts and freezes than areas that are now used for growing crops. I know that you are not suggesting that all areas that become warm enough to support crops will also meet the other criteria needed for growing crops. I would be very surprised if enough of the more northern latitudes would become suitable for crops to replace the crop lands that are lost to regions that will become too warm or too arid for the crops grown there now. It is not all a losing proposition, at least not in the beginning. We are entering into unknown territory with this and there are things that will only be revealed to us as it happens. We are left to look at the probabilities until we know the realities in some aspects of this.


One thing Alaska doesn't have is "fertile" ground like the mid-west US does. A farmer once told me a great farmer doesn't grow crops, they grow fertile soil.

The one solution that is used here now are cube/shipping container hydroponic farms. Each full size cargo container equals roughly an acre of land. However, it isn't the total answer as they require power to run the computers that control the environment and of course, the HVAC and lighting. LED lights and efficient insulation help. and crops like wheat and corn wouldn't be an efficient use of that space.
Quoting 316. elioe:



And that went past my comment entirely. The point is: humans will survive climate change. My earlier comment already acknowledged, that the consequences depend on location. U.S. breadbasket is not the only place where humans live. As such, the entire local ecosystem can crash, or the place can become desert, humankind will survive. What happens to local human population, depends mostly on political circumstances. And we can eat other food than bananas. Hundreds of different plants and animals. As such, we don't "depend on a stable climate a hell of a lot more than any other species on this planet". And the increased vulnerability of crops to disease due to loss of genetic variation is not even related to climate change.

And even though this entire reply missed the contents of my comment: no, we can not "magically" begin growing crops on Canadian Shield, even if the climate becomes suitable. But when it comes to diurnal cycle, suitable varieties would be found at least in Europe. The major obstacle is, that for most of the area, soil would have to be brought in. Costly, but not impossible.



I'm not missing that point. You didn't discuss other anthropogenic extinctions in your comment, to which I responded. Only climate change-related. Plants are slow to move with climate, by their natural means, but that doesn't apply to those plants humans utilize most. We tend to bring them with us.

And why would I try to use physics to answer a question, which is biological, not physical? Why did you even ask?

------------------------------------------------- -----------------

I guess, that if people want to see doom, they see doom. It's 6 a.m., time to go to sleep, good night!


I think that you are still missing the point, Eloie. You state that humans have proven to be quite adaptable and you suggest that humans will be able to successfully adapt to a warming global climate. We can fairly easily reverse the pressures placed on species on this planet that habitat loss, pollution and poaching is placing on them. We cannot reverse the warming of the global climate. The fact remains. Regardless of the other pressures that we are placing on the species on this planet there would still have to be enough of these species, that we depend on, to be able to adapt to a warming climate along with us, or we will fail to adapt also. I find it highly unlikely that our body chemistry will be able to allow for us to adapt to digesting plastics. Either enough other species learn to adapt to a warming climate or we fail in efforts to adapt to a warming climate. How does Physics give us an alternative to this?

I am not looking for doom. I am looking at the reality of the situation and you have yet to offer an alternative reality for us to place our confidence in.

Sleep restfully. I think that our conversation has been productive and we both have something that we can take away from it.
Quoting 320. Dakster:



One thing Alaska doesn't have is "fertile" ground like the mid-west US does. A farmer once told me a great farmer doesn't grow crops, they grow fertile soil.

The one solution that is used here now are cube/shipping container hydroponic farms. Each full size cargo container equals roughly an acre of land. However, it isn't the total answer as they require power to run the computers that control the environment and of course, the HVAC and lighting. LED lights and efficient insulation help. and crops like wheat and corn wouldn't be an efficient use of that space.


You are right that the shipping containers would not be the answer to all of this, but I like the thought processes involved with the idea. I think that it might be a move in the right direction. I have my fingers crossed.
Quoting 222. Famoguy1234:



A system making landfall in Florida on Christmas..

I've seen everything now.


We couldnt get that lucky lol. Better wait till 27 to extend Christmas vacation.
Quoting 316. elioe:



I guess, that if people want to see doom, they see doom. It's 6 a.m., time to go to sleep, good night!


Well when you pass off ecosystems collapsing as trivial (by the tone of your comment), it's no wonder people see doom. Sure, humans will survive climate change, but the effects are going to be quite severe if certain ecosystems do collapse. I mean if the US became a big desert, over 300 million people that live there will start migrating elsewhere and there'll be a big knock on effect to the majority of the human population. I can understand your way of thinking - that humans, the species, will survive. But there's the potential for major consequences and massive shifts in the way of life of those future humans that do survive. As well as possible misery for many millions, or even billions, before we get to that point.
What is the current best thinking on how much warming the permafrost will tolerate before releasing its methane? Is there a tipping point for the permafrost that, well, makes discussions of scaled-up hydroponics and wheat fields in Denedeh and Nunavut irrelevant?
326. ronnm
Regarding post 316, and this quote, "Hundreds of different plants and animals. As such, we don't "depend on a stable climate a hell of a lot more than any other species on this planet".

AGree Humans or our ancestors have existed in periods of time when most probably climate was relatively unstable.
Perhaps the bible Noahs flood was a allagory or depiction in simple terms of that earlier times when human were destroyed by climate variance as much as or more than any other foe.

It is only that they existed as a relatively minor specie in number and in impact in those unstable times. With humanities great increase was a stable climate for the most part. Now that has all changed. It will not be humans that will disappear but civilization advanced as we know it. Those that think we will have the ability to respond rationally to this thing need to look only at the US defense budget which has us spendingt 600 billion or so for enemies which largly don't any longer exist. And how much to defeat this clear and present danger?

As the pressures mount civilization will devolve into tribilistic entities rather than nationalistic identities. With that there will be no one to mount a logical consistent charge against global warming. IN fact death and destruction will take care of that by their lonesome. We will not identify these immigrations being caused by global warming it will be thought to be by religious affiliation color of skin type of culture and all those things misrepresenting global warming. In the end the last man standing will be not civilization but a greatly reduced humanity.

The cause of the downfall of man will be laid at the feet of this or that cause. Pressure upon a fragile civilization by a challenge to it that could not be devolved will be the cause, little recognized. We will end up fighting each other to the death over less and less resources. NO one will be planning and mounting grand schemes to fight a thing like global warming, they will be to busy protecting themselves and their own from a early demise.
This is your future. Humans will continue. We confuse humans with civilization as we know it today. That will not continue. Humans like cockaroaches are pretty durable. Advanced civilizations they come and go with the wind. Look to your history. Advanced civilizations have existed compared to the inverse for very short periods of time. What suggests global advanced civilization will have any better fate considering the challenge posed it? Nothing suggest present societal response mechanisms will be able to meet that challenge. Billions will die before their natural time and human will revert once again in the whole of things to being a relatively minor specie by number and impact. Which may be as it should be. We have mismanaged our reign so badly.
Quoting 325. secondgee:

What is the current best thinking on how much warming the permafrost will tolerate before releasing its methane? Is there a tipping point for the permafrost that, well, makes discussions of scaled-up hydroponics and wheat fields in Denedeh and Nunavut irrelevant?


15 degree average in summer time rise we have seen temps 30 degrees at surface in summer in high arctic and not 1 day but several weeks too a few months as of late twice as much as required methane is a feed back loop as its released temps rise ten times faster therefore releasing more methane and increasing the temperatures faster

hence faster and faster we go

what makes it more dangerous is winter as the surface freezes methane is still being released but slowing under the winter cold but the gas builds up under the ice bog holes and such and well it can ignite with a great might it also makes a great heat source in the cold night on the ice if u break just a small enough hole to release a little blue flame


but be careful it can roar out of control
Quoting 325. secondgee:

What is the current best thinking on how much warming the permafrost will tolerate before releasing its methane? Is there a tipping point for the permafrost that, well, makes discussions of scaled-up hydroponics and wheat fields in Denedeh and Nunavut irrelevant?


There has been a lot of discussion on this and the short answer is that no one knows for sure what would be the trigger temperature that would result in large methane releases. Recent studies have revealed that methane leaks are becoming more common and larger in the Arctic region already. Has a tipping point already been reached? I wish I knew the answer to that.

Arctic methane emissions ‘greater’ than previous estimates

Arctic News

Arctic Ocean methane does not reach the atmosphere

Study measures methane release from Arctic permafrost

There have been lots of studies conducted, but has the tipping point already been reached? Dunno.
Quoting 324. Envoirment:



Well when you pass off ecosystems collapsing as trivial (by the tone of your comment), it's no wonder people see doom. Sure, humans will survive climate change, but the effects are going to be quite severe if certain ecosystems do collapse. I mean if the US became a big desert, over 300 million people that live there will start migrating elsewhere and there'll be a big knock on effect to the majority of the human population. I can understand your way of thinking - that humans, the species, will survive. But there's the potential for major consequences and massive shifts in the way of life of those future humans that do survive. As well as possible misery for many millions, or even billions, before we get to that point.


they could move too Canada the world can a global super country lots of space

do it right do it well rewards will be great
330. ronnm
No offense comment 329 as I don't know if you are serious.

If you are canada will not even allow any americans to establish legal residency in their country if you are over the age of 42. A pass is available on that if you have perhaps 1.5 million USD cash available . Their point system of immigration disallows that. It was implemented to prevent Americans from relocating there to take advantage of their universal health care system when they become old enough to need health care regularly.

Canadians will simply not allow their country to be taken over by foreigners. Push come to shove and I could see Candada devolving into perhaps two nation states but the US will likely devolve into multiple. With global warming pressure such devolvements will happen. Essentially we will not be able to force immigration upon them. Our internal strife and disassociation one region from another, will weaken our strength.
Per example the USSR was a global superpower. Our united states is a global superpower. With the devolvement of the USSR Russia became a power but nothing resembling a superpower. With the devolvement of the US into groups of states as opposed to one nation the same thing will happen. This is our fate. As such we will not be able to exert our will upon other nations.

.09 at Indian Hills, .17 at the Airport (KRAL)
Quoting 330. ronnm:

No offense comment 329 as I don't know if you are serious.

If you are canada will not even allow any americans to establish legal residency in their country if you are over the age of 42. A pass is available on that if you have perhaps 1.5 million USD cash available . Their point system of immigration disallows that. It was implemented to prevent Americans from relocating there to take advantage of their universal health care system when they become old enough to need health care regularly.

Canadians will simply not allow their country to be taken over by foreigners. Push come to shove and I could see Candada devolving into perhaps two nation states but the US will likely devolve into multiple. With global warming pressure such devolvements will happen. Essentially we will not be able to force immigration upon them. Our internal strife and disassociation one region from another, will weaken our strength.
Per example the USSR was a global superpower. Our united states is a global superpower. With the devolvement of the USSR Russia became a power but nothing resembling a superpower. With the devolvement of the US into groups of states as opposed to one nation the same thing will happen. This is our fate. As such we will not be able to exert our will upon other nations.


Canada will also devolve: the West is already trying to "drum up" support for such a split. West vs. East
333. vis0
REPLY AS TO ::(i know i'm late to the rally,  "Better late than never"  should be the topic inn 4 years)
(both links auto scroll to comment once page is fully loaded)
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/com ment.html?entrynum=3524&page=6#comment_198
at
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/com ment.html?entrynum=3524&page=6#comment_256
 
 
 
If you look at the 5 w's of questioning (forgot how i replaced how with an old English word beginning with a "W") They show that humans most animals adapt Latitudinal manner not Longitudinally.

Not to go of course but i state this E-W W-E motion is really due to the magnetic process of a complex planet and the inttrAEcolour process (its a form of Hydrogen/Helium spin (hence  i use at times "Æ" ) interacting resonance(sd) i represent via colours)

COME BACK!, here let me explain it in a more "accepted" form.

The Polar regions have a magnetic influence that are best survived where the polar's magnetic output cancel out and that means somewhere in the middle aka furthest areas from Poles or inner most half/halves (please no halves knot jokes) . Look at a map's Latitudinal lines and that's mainly between the 45 degree areas of both Hemispheres.
Why 45? i use a laws of physics i adapted in late 1960s that in physics nature (living things) notice a change at 1/2 (half)  or or 2x (double) a change. In simple math 45 degrees is half of the 90 degrees it takes to cover from Equator to each pole. (or course if we used the number 1000 to count from Equator to poles half would be 500, but we use 90) A more simpler term as to physics we use is Glass half full / half empty...i use to do a joke on public access (1980s) as a science guy (dress in Doctor-like jacket) and say "half full" while filling glass half way or "twice full" as i'd pour 2 times more fake milk than fit into the glass spilling it all over ...SCIENCE! (uh... yes this is the jacket but turned inside out, here (jacket with m number facing out) i was acting like an escaped mental patient - easy part comes naturally to me  , - P   ...shows where all LIVE then..adult 1AM show clip Parental Wise Guidance recommended)
 
 
Now as to the resonance that is more of a science i call Galacsics and will not explain it via that science since it only exists in my mind and the universe outside this or any planet.  For some reason(s) humans care not of anything that is further away than the remote control...\-( well except for that piece of cheese under the remote ...myumm  myummm deelicious 4 month cured 3 days lost  - cheddar.
 
Now the resonance i divide into thirds.  As in  .333 and .666 these are the fluctuations Humans move laterally (latitudinally[word?]) floating over the physical boundaries. (To me) "star centered" complex being aka  Equatorial Humans tend to stay at .333 of the Equator as in "Tropics of" lines are their desired boundaries, while "planet centered" complex beings aka Neanderthal Humans tend to float towards .666 pole ward wise of 45 degrees.
Of course humans have a right to move where ever they want can afford.    The reason for the pole ward boundaries  (i state) has to do which the brain losing ability to create imagined thoughts whence too close to polar regions if one stays there too long without certain protections thus lower the odds for be creative (a nice way of saying surviving or saving ones a**,  during critical life threatening moments when voyaging outside of the normal passageways humans travel is confronted by harsh surprises that intelligence centered around wisdom is a bonus/helps for the purpose of survival)   
 
Now curiosity and being COMPLEX (intelligence feed by wisdom) humans meant that the animal known as Humans broke through that Latitudinal barrier and voyages toward polar regions and survived. Just being curious will not allow an animal to make it pole ward AND (back) SURVIVE to pass that voyages wisdom to others ion its "animal kingdom" / species.  Animals have to reach the "complex animal" stage and i explained in clues as to the 7 days 7 nights relating to 6 or 7 "Radon ages" and 6 or 7 "Ice ages" aforementioned as to physical mutations and latter as to Brain wiring mutations...then the omnipotent took a break on day 7th at Grothar''s Bar and Grill "Beta Centauri".
 
 
Now the warming of the Globe/Planet/Earth is changing this ebb and flow voyage from being mainly W to E    E to W driven to a (equatorial)  to S.Pole-ward and  (equatorial) to N. pole-ward direction.
 
This means that positive and negative things as to human survival will now NOT be controlled by Natures natural Latitudinal temperature/climate divisions/boundaries (NCDB).
 
 
As in bugs, diseases, animals that can harm or even eat humans will now move poleward     i WITHOUT being wiser just cause they need to survive at the basic animal level and millions of years of SLOW N STEADY learning due to SLOW AND STEADY climate changes has set in these less complex animals that they move according to long term weather almost climate period changes.
 
Therefore as we build vineyards in New England how will be safeguard the grapes from South American bugs (more pesticides???). These bugs  that never reached Lat. Lines matching Italy's area, heck not even Portugal/Morocco now (then) are as far north as Virginia and during warm spells you'll have those South American (equatorial) bugs reach New England.   
Then add diseases, mold will thrive as truly only dry / frost kills it so in a few hundred years...
 
(hundred years as too far???, not too far THINK you read of George Washington that as over 200 "drop in the bucket" years ago)
 
...its too moist and warm and mold is everywhere except for desert which by then no one can survive w/o some super duper electric bill for AC/indoor climate control devices, that has vacuum sealed homes(Sit down Trump stop saying you'll buy 3, doesn't exist yet??? unless you count those created for serious life threatening allergy sufferers or bubble boy like mini homes)...i mean 110 degree outdoors vacuum sealed REAL "this old house" sturdy HOMES.)
 
So again great premise to think as to all consequences i just added the 50% of the consequences that for some reason you forgot (if TechnoCaveman added them later my apology not read ahead) By the way does TechnoCaveman play as your theme tune of the Nirobi Trio ...me I'm Percy Dovetonsils - Wikipedia? ah my style nothing in moderation go all out or be snake bitten...or i could be 99.9% wrong

...watch Noble prizes in 10 yrs awarded to a theory how man (all animals on the physical dimension even single celled creatures) start by being pole ward grounded ("spine" build pole ward to become  complex beings the 13 cranial nerves ground in full circle to zodiac energies too deep to explain AGAIN) then once pole ward grounded all other use of energy goes towards the intake of experiences as towards instinct then intelligence then wisdom, all i ask for is cookie.

WEATHER::
 zip10016, WINDY!!! and cold ... CLIMATE:: still warming
Quoting 320. Dakster:



One thing Alaska doesn't have is "fertile" ground like the mid-west US does. A farmer once told me a great farmer doesn't grow crops, they grow fertile soil.

The one solution that is used here now are cube/shipping container hydroponic farms. Each full size cargo container equals roughly an acre of land. However, it isn't the total answer as they require power to run the computers that control the environment and of course, the HVAC and lighting. LED lights and efficient insulation help. and crops like wheat and corn wouldn't be an efficient use of that space.


It's a good thing Alaska doesn't have fertile soil. Can you imagine what size these would be that currently grow in Alaska





Quoting 318. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I did not miss the point. You did not show an example of how land that is not arable will become arable as the climate continues to warm. If the ground under the ice is not arable it does not become arable simply because the ice melts out.

C'mon, Rook! A couple bags of fertilizer and a few dozen garden hoses and we should be able to feed all seven billion-plus humans with no trouble, no hitches, no cost instability whatsoever. /sarcasm

We are looking at the largest catastrophe in human history. Period. Will the human race survive? Almost certainly. Will our numbers be severely reduced? Almost certainly. And that's just from climate change. No telling how much we'll compound the problem with war, including nuclear.

But ya gotta like Pollyanna's optimism, don't you?
Quoting 334. Grothar:



It's a good thing Alaska doesn't have fertile soil. Can you imagine what size these would be that currently grow in Alaska






arctic has some of the most fertile soil on the planet that which is not exposed bedrock lots of marsh and bog and peat it will grow well for awhile anyway
think for a moment the cabbage rolls I could make with that perfect cabbage roll cabbage in tomato sauce herbs garlic amazing for a speck of dust suspended in a sunbeam mmmmmmm

Quoting 331. PedleyCA:


.09 at Indian Hills, .17 at the Airport (KRAL)


Disappointing here Ped.... .15 so far but it is raining!

Quoting 333. vis0:



Tl;dr.
Line of strong storms, wind, ice, and snow...Fast mover tho..

-13F on my weather station now, wind is howling but the weather station is a bit sheltered, so not sure how strong the gusts are. Power is still on though!

Not looking forward to the walk in to work from the parking lot! But not into nostril-freezing range yet. We are just de-hardened after last year's absent winter.
Quoting 339. EmsiNasklug:


Tl;dr.


I value vis0's contributions, I may not exactly understand or agree with most of his hypotheses, I do find they have literary value as if Hunter S Thompson or William S. Burroughs were here gifting us their thoughts on the climate.
Quoting 334. Grothar:



It's a good thing Alaska doesn't have fertile soil. Can you imagine what size these would be that currently grow in Alaska








So, all that methane isn't actually coming out of the permafrost?

:D
Good Morning. Want to wish all of the Blog Family (and not the naughty trolls) a wonderful and happy holiday season with your families and loved ones. I am heading out tomorrow from Florida on the road trip to Atlanta, DC, and then on the Mass with the Daughter. Looks like I will see ice and snow for the first time in my life on this one and thanks for all the driving tips.

While I will not be back on here until after the New Year, my season started with a bang last night after I posted on here and left work late. Someone slammed into the back of my car at a red light and I when jumped out of mine ready to lay into the driver, she looked like the proverbial little old lady (with the thick glasses) who was shaken up (her air bag deployed). I calmed her down, told her she would be fine, and the damage to the cars was not that much (I just need a new back bumper and exhaust pipes). She could have been my Mother and while I was upset, it was clear to me that her family might be taking her keys away based on how they apologized to me last night. I wished them a Merry Christmas and thank god they had full insurance coverage on her; after I got the police report, I realized that the woman was born in 1931; same year as my Mother.

Peace and Love to Everyone.





fuel prices are up 30 cents a gallon already since the election . if this keeps up we will all wish to be back in the days of president obamas presidency.
346. MahFL
Quoting 345. islander101010:

fuel prices are up 30 cents a gallon already since the election . if this keeps up we will all wish to be back in the days of president obamas presidency.


Fuel prices always go up near holidays, it's called supply and demand...
Top 10 highest PDO EVER for November at +1.88 which is up from +.56 in October. Folks we need to watch how this ENSO behaves the next few months as this could be paving the way for a El-Nino redux. That reading is incredible folks. Damm!!
The PDO is beginning to rage again across the Pacific. This will be interesting to see what happens to the weather patterns across North America over the coming weeks as this could yield a cold and stormy pattern for much of the US come January.

Also of note will be the continued fight across FL with near record SST's across the Gulf/SW Atlantic, and Western Caribbean for this time of year.
One thing I have noticed over the last 10 years has been years we've seen a warm Winter in FL it has yielded a early start to the Rainy Season. Even years with NO tropical systems hitting FL with warm Winters it causes our Wet Season's to be more robust with very active sea breezes beginning early like early to mid May. Sometimes we get more rain just from active sea breeze patterns than from Tropical systems itself.

Cold Winters I have noticed are followed by a late start to the Wet Season and typically not as active or more sporadic in nature with sea breeze storms.

Just a personal observation nothing scientific.
Quoting 345. islander101010:

fuel prices are up 30 cents a gallon already since the election . if this keeps up we will all wish to be back in the days of president obamas presidency.


Why would I or anyone else come to a weather and climate blog to get an update on gas prices? And I do miss 50 cent a gallon gas prices from when I was a kid with my mini bike. I do wish I could go back to those days.

On the weather side, nice and cool this morning. Temperatures are in the upper 50s. But we'll be in the low 80s this afternoon. It has only rained 1 time (for about 10 minutes) since October 15th here in Fort Myers.
Quoting 351. Sfloridacat5:



Why would I or anyone else come to a weather and climate blog to get an update on gas prices? And I do miss 50 cent a gallon gas prices from when I was a kid with my mini bike. I do wish I could go back to those days.

On the weather side, nice a cool this morning. Temperatures in the upper 50s. But we'll be in the low 80s this afternoon. It has only rained 1 time (for about 10 minutes) since October 15th here in Fort Myers.


Decent shot at rain here on Sunday but that is going to be sea breeze driven with a SW Flow so this rain should develop inland from the west coast of FL unless a line of storms in the Gulf forms Sunday and slides in late in the day. Temps though inland should be near 90 Sunday.
Quoting 348. StormTrackerScott:

Top 10 highest PDO EVER for November at +1.88 which is up from +.56 in October. Folks we need to watch how this ENSO behaves the next few months as this could be paving the way for a El-Nino redux. That reading is incredible folks. Damm!!
El nino in 2017?
Trump vows to roll back energy industry regs
SOURCE: FOXNEWS --Published December 15, 2016

"Trump has said he will roll back regulations that damage the coal industry. That could mean ignoring Obamas carefully negotiated Paris climate accord and tearing up his controversial Clean Power Plan, both of which dramatically restrict U.S. carbon emissions.

Trump stated the U.S. has enough oil to last 285 years. It is there for the taking, he said. That could mean opening up areas currently off limits to offshore oil drilling, including the Pacific, Atlantic and parts of Alaska.

Trump told voters the U.S. has enough natural gas reserves to power Americas energy needs for the next 110 years. He supports natural gas fracking on federal lands, something Obama did not.

Unlike Obama, who was pressured by environmental allies to oppose most fossil fuel projects, Trump supports both the North Dakota Access and Keystone XL pipelines.

On wind and solar, Trump said, I'm all for alternative forms of energy but also called it just an expensive way to make tree huggers feel good about themselves. While it is unlikely renewables will receive the favored status they did under Obama, Trump seems more likely to remain neutral on that front."
Quoting 346. MahFL:



Fuel prices always go up near holidays, it's called supply and demand...
I wouldn't be so sure about that. None of this "economy" is as pure as supply and demand. Remember that the low fuel prices adversely affect Russia. There are a few well-defined dots that can be connected here. $3.00+ per gallon is probably not what the voters who picked that guy are looking for...
Quoting 344. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Want to wish all of the Blog Family (and not the naughty trolls) a wonderful and happy holiday season with your families and loved ones. I am heading out tomorrow from Florida on the road trip to Atlanta, DC, and then on the Mass with the Daughter. Looks like I will see ice and snow for the first time in my life on this one and thanks for all the driving tips.

While I will not be back on here until after the New Year, my season started with a bang last night after I posted on here and left work late. Someone slammed into the back of my car at a red light and I when jumped out of mine ready to lay into the driver, she looked like the proverbial little old lady (with the thick glasses) who was shaken up (her air bag deployed). I calmed her down, told her she would be fine, and the damage to the cars was not that much (I just need a new back bumper and exhaust pipes). She could have been my Mother and while I was upset, it was clear to me that her family might be taking her keys away based on how they apologized to me last night. I wished them a Merry Christmas and thank god they had full insurance coverage on her; after I got the police report, I realized that the woman was born in 1931; same year as my Mother.

Peace and Love to Everyone.






Hello WW..Glad you and the lady are O.K...1931...far out..:)
Quoting 353. Kenfa03:

El nino in 2017?


Hard to tell but the consistency of the PDO is puzzling especially with another spike occurring. The last big spike lead to the El-Nino of 2015/2016. La-Nina tried but the PDO was just to much. My thinking is that come January like what happened in January 2016 we are going to see a cold stormy pattern open up across the US
South Africa Strong winds interrupts President Zuma's speech

Published on Dec 16, 2016 by eNCA
North West, 16 December 2016 - President Jacob Zuma was whisked away by his security detail, after a storm interrupted his Reconciliation Day speech.eNCA's Nickolaus Bauer was at Gopane in the North West.
Quoting 344. weathermanwannabe:

(snip) my season started with a bang last night after I posted on here and left work late. Someone slammed into the back of my car at a red light and I when jumped out of mine ready to lay into the driver, she looked like the proverbial little old lady (with the thick glasses) who was shaken up (her air bag deployed). I calmed her down, told her she would be fine, and the damage to the cars was not that much (I just need a new back bumper and exhaust pipes). She could have been my Mother and while I was upset, it was clear to me that her family might be taking her keys away based on how they apologized to me last night. I wished them a Merry Christmas and thank god they had full insurance coverage on her; after I got the police report, I realized that the woman was born in 1931; same year as my Mother.

Peace and Love to Everyone.








My parents were always very safe drivers, but when they got older, say later 70s, they were not as safe. My mother hit the side mirror on the edge of the garage door. I began to shovel their driveway whenever it snowed when it was too hard for my Dad to get-out the snow blower.
Whenever I see poor driving, or someone is too slow, etc., I think of my (late) parents and give the offender some slack.

More snow coming our way, and Sunday will be -1° for a daytime high and -16° for the overnight low.
Quoting 351. Sfloridacat5:



Why would I or anyone else come to a weather and climate blog to get an update on gas prices? And I do miss 50 cent a gallon gas prices from when I was a kid with my mini bike. I do wish I could go back to those days.

On the weather side, nice and cool this morning. Temperatures are in the upper 50s. But we'll be in the low 80s this afternoon. It has only rained 1 time (for about 10 minutes) since October 15th here in Fort Myers.

From 1967 (when I was 8 and started tracking them) to 1972 gas prices ran around d 30-35 cents/gallon. THey spiked to around 55/gallon in 1974 and to about $1.40 per gallon in 1979.
Quoting 336. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

arctic has some of the most fertile soil on the planet that which is not exposed bedrock lots of marsh and bog and peat it will grow well for awhile anyway


The combination of REALLY long days and cool temperatures allows some cool season veggies to grow to enormous sizes. Cool temperatures also slow organic matter decomposition in the soil.

Long days make for difficulties too. It is said to be very difficult to grow spinach in Alaska. Spinach grows best in cool weather but bolting is triggered by daylength and long days will make it go to seed even in ideally cool weather.
Kind of off topic here I see, but does anyone here have a Netatmo weather station, and is it on WU. Are you still able to use WU to view your data?
Quoting 342. gr8lakebreeze:



I value vis0's contributions, I may not exactly understand or agree with most of his hypotheses, I do find they have literary value as if Hunter S Thompson or William S. Burroughs were here gifting us their thoughts on the climate.
Indeed.. cryptic and humorous...I was going the mention dynamic instability , microtubule modulation, apoptosis. substrates for motor proteins ,vesicle trafficking , manifold wisdom from supreme intelligence permeating brains for eternity , creation out of destruction...and his name is not Percy Dovetonsils...
Quoting 289. MahFL:



So this is a mirage eh ?




It will be. Sometimes pictures can be a little misleading. Saudi Arabia has given up being self-sufficient in food production (their primary goal for the past 30 years). Why? Not enough water available (unsurprisingly).

Saudi Arabia Grain and Feed Annual 2016

Wheat Production:
In MY2015/16, the Saudi government ended its domestic wheat production and purchase programs, as
was specified in the decree # 335 of 2007. The decree stipulated that the Saudi Grain Silos and Flour
Mills Organization (GSFMO) would reduce wheat production quotas for registered farmers by 12.5
percent annually starting from MY2007/08 in order to end wheat cultivation by the beginning
MY2015/16. The main reason for the policy change was a strong concern over the depletion of the
country’s scarce water reserves, as the wheat crop is 100 percent irrigated.


Barley Production:
The Saudi government terminated its domestic barley production program in 2003, bringing an end two
decades of domestic production of feed barley. Local Saudi barley production is currently estimated at
about 15,000 MT, and is mostly for human consumption. The government has stopped feed barley
production in order to conserve scarce water resources, as the Saudi barley crop is 100 percent irrigated
.

Corn Production:
Corn production is very limited in Saudi Arabia. Every year an estimated 80,000 MT is produced for
both animal and human consumption. . . . Domestic corn production has been constant over the past several years because the Saudi corn growers do not receive any government support, neither through direct production subsidy nor by government guaranteed prices. The government policy has been discouraging domestic production of all water intensive crops, including feed corn, and has been offering financial incentives to corn imports.

Rice Production:
There is no domestic rice production in Saudi Arabia. The country depends fully on imports to meet its
rice consumption demand.
Quoting 354. ILwthrfan:

Trump vows to roll back energy industry regs
SOURCE: FOXNEWS --Published December 15, 2016

"Trump has said he will roll back regulations that damage the coal industry. That could mean ignoring Obamas carefully negotiated Paris climate accord and tearing up his controversial Clean Power Plan, both of which dramatically restrict U.S. carbon emissions.

Trump stated the U.S. has enough oil to last 285 years. It is there for the taking, he said. That could mean opening up areas currently off limits to offshore oil drilling, including the Pacific, Atlantic and parts of Alaska.

Trump told voters the U.S. has enough natural gas reserves to power Americas energy needs for the next 110 years. He supports natural gas fracking on federal lands, something Obama did not.

Unlike Obama, who was pressured by environmental allies to oppose most fossil fuel projects, Trump supports both the North Dakota Access and Keystone XL pipelines.

On wind and solar, Trump said, I'm all for alternative forms of energy but also called it just an expensive way to make tree huggers feel good about themselves. While it is unlikely renewables will receive the favored status they did under Obama, Trump seems more likely to remain neutral on that front."


What butchery of market economics. The oil companies are the ones who haven't bothered with more Alaska production because they don't see stuff worth producing. Offshore ultradeepwater is unpopular for the same reason. Producing large amounts of high break-even oil is self defeating because if you produce too much for the market (which is inelastic) to absorb, price craters regardless of what you need to charge to make your project pay off. More speculative stuff also tends to bust entirely with not as much as there was supposed to be or cost overruns that make it unprofitable.

Oil companies are not bad at what they do.

Likewise, Trump's technical understanding of renewables seems to be a decade or more out of date. Wind and solar can compete on cost with fossil fuels; wind can sometimes drive the price of electricity negative because, like oil, you only need so much at once. Thats silly but wind & solar are all up front capital cost so the capacity they add runs on essentially free fuel, which means they can operate in such an uneconomical manner. Fracked natural gas is cheaper than coal and responsible for most of the drop in US power plant emissions (coal plants cannot compete on cost with gas). Hell, fracked gas is a fracked oil byproduct.

This is as much nonsense as people pining for 60w incandescent bulbs. CFLs may have been annoying but modern LEDs crush on cost. What's next, subsidizing inefficient, obsolete technology?
Woke up several times last night due to wind. Lots of weather going on:



NWS-Salt Lake City's AFD:

SYNOPSIS...A windy and wet Pacific storm and associated cold
front will cross the region today into Saturday. Thereafter an
unseasonably cold airmass will remain entrenched across the region
into early next week.

The AFD stated 'the majority of the wild weather will occur today', and that 'an active weather pattern is expected through Christmas'.
Looking over the weather news...be careful in that cold. Atleast a handful of people died in vehicle accidents from bad weather conditions overnight in the USA. Another woman froze to death outside her apartment. Also the rescue of a town water tank diver/inspector may have been delayed beyond death due to weather.

weathermanwannabe~ Glad to see you alright. Safe Travels!
Quoting 364. daddyjames:



It will be. Sometimes pictures can be a little misleading. Saudi Arabia has given up being self-sufficient in food production (their primary goal for the past 30 years). Why? Not enough water available (unsurprisingly).

Saudi Arabia Grain and Feed Annual 2016

Wheat Production:
In MY2015/16, the Saudi government ended its domestic wheat production and purchase programs, as
was specified in the decree # 335 of 2007. The decree stipulated that the Saudi Grain Silos and Flour
Mills Organization (GSFMO) would reduce wheat production quotas for registered farmers by 12.5
percent annually starting from MY2007/08 in order to end wheat cultivation by the beginning
MY2015/16. The main reason for the policy change was a strong concern over the depletion of the
country’s scarce water reserves, as the wheat crop is 100 percent irrigated.


Barley Production:
The Saudi government terminated its domestic barley production program in 2003, bringing an end two
decades of domestic production of feed barley. Local Saudi barley production is currently estimated at
about 15,000 MT, and is mostly for human consumption. The government has stopped feed barley
production in order to conserve scarce water resources, as the Saudi barley crop is 100 percent irrigated
.

Corn Production:
Corn production is very limited in Saudi Arabia. Every year an estimated 80,000 MT is produced for
both animal and human consumption. . . . Domestic corn production has been constant over the past several years because the Saudi corn growers do not receive any government support, neither through direct production subsidy nor by government guaranteed prices. The government policy has been discouraging domestic production of all water intensive crops, including feed corn, and has been offering financial incentives to corn imports.

Rice Production:
There is no domestic rice production in Saudi Arabia. The country depends fully on imports to meet its
rice consumption demand.


Yup, no free lunch. Those circles are central pivot irrigation, which is recognized as unsustainable in parts of the American West, nevermind Saudi Arabia. The term people use is "fossil water;" those aquifers are as finite as fossil fuels on our timescale.
So I was aware there was an excellent discussion about climate change/adaptation and crops/soils going on, and now a good portion of it's gone, presumably due to a ban. I just now went back to read it more in depth, but can't. Do the rest of the comments come back when the ban is lifted?

Seriously, those are the types of discussions I'd like to see more of on here. From what I saw last night it was done with civility and without politics.
Quoting 288. ProPoly:



We don't grow food in those places. The Upper Midwest will cope with the current Arctic/snow/Arctic misery but it would be a different story if this was a year-round condition; the interior US & Canada would no longer be arable land. That global climate was 5-6C cooler than today.

Single-digit degrees Celsius in increase also has potential to change climate radically. Not a problem in raw temperature - most places - but that tends to model as things like a Western megadrought. Again, food goes bye-bye.


A midwest drought much worse t han 1988 where a death ridge just sets up over the region and does not budge, is one of my biggest short term climate fluctuation concerns. This will not be gradual, it will just happen one year and the impact on the world food supply from losing U.S. midwest output will be devastating.

Quoting 336. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

arctic has some of the most fertile soil on the planet that which is not exposed bedrock lots of marsh and bog and peat it will grow well for awhile anyway


Have a look at these pictures , and tell me how a tractor is going to cross this stuff -

New weird landforms appear due to thawing permafrost on Yamal peninsula
By The Siberian Times reporter14 December 2016

Link
Quoting 354. ILwthrfan:

Trump vows to roll back energy industry regs
SOURCE: FOXNEWS --Published December 15, 2016

"Trump has said he will roll back regulations that damage the coal industry. That could mean ignoring Obamas carefully negotiated Paris climate accord and tearing up his controversial Clean Power Plan, both of which dramatically restrict U.S. carbon emissions.

Trump stated the U.S. has enough oil to last 285 years. It is there for the taking, he said. That could mean opening up areas currently off limits to offshore oil drilling, including the Pacific, Atlantic and parts of Alaska.

Trump told voters the U.S. has enough natural gas reserves to power Americas energy needs for the next 110 years. He supports natural gas fracking on federal lands, something Obama did not.

Unlike Obama, who was pressured by environmental allies to oppose most fossil fuel projects, Trump supports both the North Dakota Access and Keystone XL pipelines.

On wind and solar, Trump said, I'm all for alternative forms of energy but also called it just an expensive way to make tree huggers feel good about themselves. While it is unlikely renewables will receive the favored status they did under Obama, Trump seems more likely to remain neutral on that front."


When I read things like this, I'm struck wondering how much the Americans of 2100 to 2300* will hate us for consuming the known reserves willfully just because we could. Beyond the negative externalities of climate change, this is completely irresponsible from a sustainability point of view. The writers of history will not look at us fondly.

* Assuming that there is an America by then.
Quoting 371. georgevandenberghe:



A midwest drought much worse t han 1988 where a death ridge just sets up over the region and does not budge, is one of my biggest short term climate fluctuation concerns. This will not be gradual, it will just happen one year and the impact on the world food supply from losing U.S. midwest output will be devastating.


As long as we take care of our own first, it should not be much of a problem. Nature is just culling the herd.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 373. RobertWC:



Have a look at these pictures , and tell me how a tractor is going to cross this stuff -

New weird landforms appear due to thawing permafrost on Yamal peninsula
By The Siberian Times reporter14 December 2016

Link
that's because that's a fresh melt let it dry out some and melt even larger area that in turn dries out or evaporate up increasing the vapor levels it will turn into a rich peat in about 10 to 20 years

Quoting 365. ProPoly:



The Electric Power Research Institute (2010) reported estimates of the LCOE of various sources of electricity in Australia, including:

coal-fired electricity (without carbon capture and storage) — A$78–91/MWh
combined-cycle gas turbines (without carbon capture and storage) — A$97/MWh
wind — A$150–214/MWh
medium-sized (five megawatt) solar PV systems — A$400–473/MWh.



What butchery of market economics. The oil companies are the ones who haven't bothered with more Alaska production because they don't see stuff worth producing. Offshore ultradeepwater is unpopular for the same reason. Producing large amounts of high break-even oil is self defeating because if you produce too much for the market (which is inelastic) to absorb, price craters regardless of what you need to charge to make your project pay off. More speculative stuff also tends to bust entirely with not as much as there was supposed to be or cost overruns that make it unprofitable.

Oil companies are not bad at what they do.

Likewise, Trump's technical understanding of renewables seems to be a decade or more out of date. Wind and solar can compete on cost with fossil fuels; wind can sometimes drive the price of electricity negative because, like oil, you only need so much at once. Thats silly but wind & solar are all up front capital cost so the capacity they add runs on essentially free fuel, which means they can operate in such an uneconomical manner. Fracked natural gas is cheaper than coal and responsible for most of the drop in US power plant emissions (coal plants cannot compete on cost with gas). Hell, fracked gas is a fracked oil byproduct.

This is as much nonsense as people pining for 60w incandescent bulbs. CFLs may have been annoying but modern LEDs crush on cost. What's next, subsidizing inefficient, obsolete technology?

Quoting 342. gr8lakebreeze:


I value vis0's contributions, I may not exactly understand or agree with most of his hypotheses, I do find they have literary value as if Hunter S Thompson or William S. Burroughs were here gifting us their thoughts on the climate.

I know that Pat also likes them a lot ... English is not my mother language, so it's just too strenuous to read for me. I can't even make out the content of his ideas, although I'd like to.

Quoting 311. Dakster:

Alaska is getting an expanded growing season, so I can see Canada, especially the great uninhabited Northern part, and Alaska (also sparsely populated) getting more and more farms as global warming continues. I see a lot of crop shifting in the future of the world.

FWIW, I do believe the shifting is worse even if some of the consequences appear to be good in the short term.


Dr. Richard Alley is a favorite public speaker of mine and many others. Recently he gave a presentation on "Big Ice". In the talk, he discussed the warming climate and agricultural zones. He made the emphatic point that the U.S. Midwest's amazingly productive Corn Belt will NOT be moving to Canada. Why not? Because the Laurentide Ice sheets shoved Canada's most wonderful soils to Illinois, Iowa, etc. Leaving the Canadians for the most part bereft of the sort of soil that is needed for highly productive agriculture. The Canadians may have a geological shield, but mostly it protects the Great White North from invading farmers.