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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Noel's death toll rises to 81; storm heads north through the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

Tropical Storm Noel is finally on its way north, after a long stay by the coast of Cuba. The latest center report from the Hurricane Hunters at 9:18am EDT indicated Noel was not strengthening--the pressure remained at 995 mb, and no winds above 60 mph were measured. Satellite loops show an impressive burst of thunderstorms developing on Noel's east side. The latest Hurricane Hunter report showed that Noel's center jumped about 30 miles eastward to relocate itself under these thunderstorms. This jump lessens the chance that southeast Florida coast will experience sustained winds exceeding 30 mph.

The latest GFDL, SHIPS, and HWRF intensity model runs show little change in Noel's strength, and keep the storm's top winds near 60 mph today. Wind shear is about 20 knots over the storm, and is expected to increase above 30 knots tonight, so it is unlikely Noel will intensify into a hurricane. On Friday, the models agree that Noel will transition to a powerful extratropical storm. Noel is expected to bring winds of 55-65 mph to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Saturday. Noel's remains may pass close enough to Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts to bring sustained winds of 40-50 mph there, according to the latest runs of the HWRF and GFDL models. The GFS model takes Noel farther from Cape Cod, and does not bring tropical storm force winds to Massachusetts.

Noel remains a prodigious rain-maker, and produced over 16 inches of rain in 24 hours over ocean areas near the central Bahamas yesterday (Figure 1). Rainfall totals in the Bahamas should range between 10-15 inches by the time Noel departs. Cuba has fared better, receiving no more than 6 inches of rain. However, the soils were already saturated on the island from previous rains, and flooding has forced many people from their homes, damaging at least 1,000 buildings. Heavy rains on Jamaica created a landslide that killed one person yesterday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for the 24 hours ending at 2am EDT Thursday November 1. About 16 inches (400 mm, white colors) fell over ocean areas just south of the central Bahamas. Rainfall rates as high as 1.2"/hour were observed this morning. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Noel's death toll
Another 1-3 inches of rain fell in the past 24 hours over hard-hit Hispaniola, where the death toll is 80. At least 24 people died in Haiti, where deforestation has led to severe flooding problems. In the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 56, with many more missing. At least 6,000 buildings were damaged, and 10 bridges washed out. As many as 39 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and the power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas in the mountains of the central Dominican Republic as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Another 1-2 inches of rain may fall over the island before Noel's rains finally cease. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Camaguey, Cuba radar.
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

Impact on Florida
There is no change to the forecast for Florida. Noel will pass well east of the state, bringing winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph along the coast of Florida today. Florida will be on the dry side of Noel, thanks to upper level winds from the west that will be creating about 20-25 knots of wind shear over the storm. Expect occasional heavy rain showers with rain amounts totaling 1-3 inches if you live along the Southeast Florida coast. The main hazard from Noel will be beach erosion, thanks to the 10-foot seas expected to pound area beaches. Wind and seas will subside Friday morning as Noel pulls rapidly away from Florida.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Barely Standing
Barely Standing
This is what is left of the bridge connecting Baitoa to Sabana Iglesia. This pillar is being beaten by the torrents of water let loose from the Tavera Dam upstream.
Muddy Slide
Muddy Slide
This is the spillway of the Taveras Dam. It almost looks fun! We then hiked down to take the 1st picture under the plume of water shooting 50 ft. in the air.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hey,Tampa,is the trough having trouble picking up Noel?


that or the high is trying to build in again lets see what the 2 says from the nhc and if the warnings come down or stay up
Looks like the high to the west is coming in fast. Will trough finally take noel all the way out??
ric!! I wasn't accusing you of throwing poor Felix out of this blog....you have much better ways of tormenting me anyways...

;)
498. icmoore 5:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Bullying starts in childhood and keeps on going.


Is this first hand knowledge? How would you know?
501. stormybil 5:59 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey,Tampa,is the trough having trouble picking up Noel?


that or the high is trying to build in again lets see what the 2 says from the nhc and if the warnings come down or stay up

kind of puts a new wrinkle into this,2pm is going to be interesting.
NE I think what it is is the trough slowed down a little. Its influence is being felt by Noel just has quite gotten close enough to boot it. Kinda like Charlie Brown and Lucy with the football :)
Hey MyBahamas just heard from PatW at 12:16 local on Great Guana Cay - no phones but internet (with aux generator?) is still working. Winds at E 48 G 55. The old drill rig on Johnny's Cay just broke in half and the tower fell down (Hopetown Rescue). Most everybody boarded up, no casualties so far.
flyby to check in for the 2pm??? where is it???

what's going on with our little pain in the ass storm Noel????
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR NEAR
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

506. Bonedog 6:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NE I think what it is is the trough slowed down a little. Its influence is being felt by Noel just has quite gotten close enough to boot it. Kinda like Charlie Brown and Lucy with the football :)

lol,good analogy
Since we getting Biblical in here, let me add:

Before u try to take the speck of dust out of my eye, u need to take the wood splinter out of yours.

People too judgemental in here.

484. NRAamy 1:52 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
But frankly, no one person, Dr. M or Admins included are higher than the almighty.


Can I get an Amen! I say, can I get an AMEN!!

So much for the supposed stall.
And for the record...the NHC isn't perfect (pardon the pun with my screen name please). But it is a needed agency that I doubt the independent sector could replace it even if they tried. Technology can only go as far as Mr. & Mrs. JQ Taxpayer can take it
509. Bonedog 6:02 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR NEAR
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER

sounds like the football finally got kicked
thanks figured you'd get a kick out of it
MP- I think anyone who has attended school or reads the newspaper knows that. That is the only first hand knowledge I have. I honestly get no pleasure in causing anyone pain.








Interesting picture.
517. icmoore 6:05 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
MP- I think anyone who has attended school or reads the newspaper knows that. That is the only first hand knowledge I have. I honestly get no pleasure in causing anyone pain.


I read the newspaper every morning and no mean person tries to take the paper out of my hands....yet. I hope you are not comparing me to a bully. I've tipped cows before but that's about it.


Yes, SE Fla is not longer under a warning..they were dropped.

Oh well, we were so hoping for a nice wet storm over the Central part of the state to refil the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee!

but I guess that is not meant to be this time.

I think it will become a Hurricane before it is predicted to become one (according to the current forcast)...
382. ricderr 4:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
306. jphurricane2006 4:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
there is no november 31st


I agree with Adrian, disrespect on the blog has got to go


i've got to save this one....i'm sure i'll be posting it and reminding you about it in the near future jp...LOL


C'mon, ric, u gotta allow for those "berserker" moments we all have. LOL
you all crack me up.. just now did a little back reading during my break! LOL

It appears some friends are doing their best in here this afternoon to either get banned! LOL or really make this last "hurricane blog" of the season into a memorial one! ROFL!!!

wonder which will happen first! LOL
You are nuts!
MP- I did not specify you as a bully but if the shoe fits...and what a smart ass comment about the newspaper duh.....
MP, You are on a roll today my friend!!! ROFL
At least one of the models saw my predicition last night that the trough was going to pass Noel and Noel moves back to the S and SW! I'm happy on that part. But it looks like my prediction is wrong.
Gamma, one big click going. You are correct.
I wasn't being judgemental, if your, Baha, post was for me.

Just stating the facts.
baha...some have more than others...LOL...and they forget that...
490. ihave27windows 1:54 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
There's a saying "He who is without sin should cast the first stone".

Actually it is a quote. Jesus said that to a large group of people about to stone a woman caught in the act of adultery.

Sorry to be ****( technical?), but let's give credit where credit is due....and wasn't that the subject that started this lively "debate"? LOL


Absolutely correct. Good to see some people recognise the source of the allusion :o) How are u and your windows, BTW? Haven't seen u posting in the blog as much as u used to . . .
Thanks for the info swells on that rig and your source was right, bahahurican ... Love97 and the radio station in Exuma are owned by Jones Communications; so I can't imagine how hard it must be to report on a co-worker's death on national radio :(
492. mybahamas 1:56 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Just called my contacts and a radio station employee did die trying to get to work in Exuma. Milford was his surname :(
Another unconfirmed drowning might have taken place and they are investigating. My condolences to the Milford family and the Jones Communications family :(
When I go out and cover storm damage, such things are in the back of my mind all the time ...


OH, man. . . . this is not good at all. I am really sorry to hear this.
Good to see some people recognise the source of the allusion :o) How are u and your windows, BTW? Haven't seen u posting in the blog as much as u used to . . .

Good to see you as well...My windows are fine thank you....How is your hair? Blowing in the proverbial breeze of a tropical storm? LOL
i said wed it would huricane before 27
but we need to be considerate of the Bahamas they are having some serious weather in their area...

back to working and lurking when I can.
if shadow is still around better look at this.

THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A DRY ONE FOR THE 48 CONTIGUOUS
STATES. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MASS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES DAY FIVE AND LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DAYS SIX/SEVEN.
THE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKES WILL MAKE IT COLD ENOUGH FOR
LK EFFECT SNOW...AND WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG THE CYCLONIC
FLOW LASTS TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE
I hate halloween.....I have eaten so many Milk Maid caramels my butt feels squidgy...
http://lovefm.com/listen_live.php

Bahamian radio station Love 97 FM.

They should have a news report on at 3 p.m and again at 5 p.m. if you want to listen.
Go east young man.
500-850mb
509. Bonedog 2:02 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR NEAR
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.


Hey, u guys knew before the rest of the world, except for the 130,000 of us living right about there . . .
So here we are in the Lyford Cay marina (West end New Providence/Nassau) directly under where the center of Noel?? The Baro is at 994. We have had no rain or wind for several hours -- what is the deal??

Not that I'm looking forward to getting plastered. It is just weird after all the prep work that we have done the conditions are DFC (dead flat calm) and have been for hours.

Thanks, Not-a-Yacht.
Geez, you leave for an hour or two and people are flinging foodstuffs around...
LSU ESL page Link
547. ihave27windows 6:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I hate halloween.....I have eaten so many Milk Maid caramels my butt feels squidgy...



Food fight, and now this...*shaking head*
554. Patrap 6:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
My Rifle, my Pony and me..Link



A JD BLACKFOOT FAN! Patrap, we must be related or something!
530. ihave27windows 2:13 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I wasn't being judgemental, if your, Baha, post was for me.

Just stating the facts.


Nah. Just about everybody who posted something on "blog manners" [BIG euphemism!!!]in here this a.m. prolly could wear the cap, though. Including me. LOL

the funny forcaster guy wrote our discussion for my local area

PRECIP WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A LAUGHER IN BASEBALL TERMS IS BECOMING
MORE OF A NAILBITER GAME AS THE OPPOSITION HAS JUST RALLIED. THE
LATEST BAROCLINIC MDL GUID HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF NOEL A BIT FTHR
TO THE W.
Thinking about you today Baha. Hope all of you (isn't Julie in Bahamas also) today as Noel passes over.
GFSx 10-day Link
560. Bonedog 6:29 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
the funny forcaster guy wrote our discussion for my local area

PRECIP WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A LAUGHER IN BASEBALL TERMS IS BECOMING
MORE OF A NAILBITER GAME AS THE OPPOSITION HAS JUST RALLIED. THE
LATEST BAROCLINIC MDL GUID HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF NOEL A BIT FTHR

I guess you can tell he's been watching the series
562. Patrap 6:30 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I see the resemblance cousin Flood. I've a hole in me pocket too.



Blue meanies? Max, come here...good maxxie...
562. Patrap 2:30 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I see the resemblance cousin Flood. I've a hole in me pocket too.

The Tiger did......lol
Ahhhh Floodie, why are you shaking your head?
NE that guy always adds funny stuff to the discussion. I have even seen him use terms such as no brainer, duh, doh, and my favorite.. fugetaboutit.
i just got home and i see noels is on the nne east path
568. Bonedog 6:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NE that guy always adds funny stuff to the discussion. I have even seen him use terms such as no brainer, duh, doh, and my favorite.. fugetaboutit.

Always in joy the forecasters who have fun with it
Hello StormW
571. TampaSpin 6:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hello StormW

think he just jumped in like a sniper to give parting shot.
THAT'S IT...new name...sniper storm......it was either that or stormtop..
567. ihave27windows 6:33 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Ahhhh Floodie, why are you shaking your head?



27, darlin', I've never heard a woman use the term "squidgy" in reference to her posterior...at least not in public
541. ihave27windows 2:17 PM EDT on November 01, 2007

Good to see you as well...My windows are fine thank you....How is your hair? Blowing in the proverbial breeze of a tropical storm? LOL


Actually, no. It's been calm here for about an hour or more now . . . We're waiting for the other shoe to drop.

552. NotaYacht 2:25 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
So here we are in the Lyford Cay marina (West end New Providence/Nassau) directly under where the center of Noel?? The Baro is at 994. We have had no rain or wind for several hours -- what is the deal??



Hey, Not-a. I'm kinda curious myself what's in store for the afternoon. Is there any wind at all on the back side (SW in particular) of the storm? If not, Does this mean we're done w/ Noel in New Providence?

im just curious when would florida see the worst weather or has that already happened
checking back from lunch anything new on Noel
576. hahaguy 6:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
im just curious when would florida see the worst weather or has that already happened

done and gone
but i need to know.....if it's not about keeping score....why are our featured bloggers keeping score.....are we missing the point?????
I will refrain from referring to my posterior in public from this day forth........lol
577. Crisis57 6:40 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
checking back from lunch anything new on Noel



Some apparent slowing, as well as a little wobble in it's course...
UH OH!!!
o ok thanks ne beacuse i was wondering why is ws sunny today lol
Is hahaguy Hawkeye?

I'm so confused....


baha...here's the wind field....if you're on the back side...things are subsiding
Baha, if you've been waiting an hour or more and the 2:00 NHC said noel was moving fast, wouldn't that make the eye (that we haven't seen) something like 26 miles wide? Or is it looking like Noel is stationary where you are?
Hey Amy , Like he had a shot, LOL i crack myself up!!
561. jamnkats 2:30 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Thinking about you today Baha. Hope all of you (isn't Julie in Bahamas also) today as Noel passes over.


Thanks jamn. Just got a report of a fatality in the Bahamas to add to Noel's score, so I really appreciate the kind thoughts today.

And hey, just proves we're all in the same basin, doesn't it?
581. Floodman 6:42 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
577. Crisis57 6:40 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
checking back from lunch anything new on Noel



Some apparent slowing, as well as a little wobble in it's course...

Noel is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph...22
km/hr...and a further increase in forward speed is expected over
the next 24 hours.


NE yea I do also. The OKX reports always sound like a robot wrote them while the PHI always have fun with them. When we get some nasty winter weather I think the take a toke before they write it.
windows nope hawkeye is a totally different person
hey haha a little east of my prediction but watch it go north all the east of NYC. THEY ALL THINK MIAMI IS SOUTH FL STILL SOME RAIN BANDS FOR US UNTIL THIS EVE
The eastern most Bahama Islands are getting some decent winds and rain........In 3 to 4 hours the sun will be out........Noel has a outside chance of becoming a hurricane......sat presentation looks better and better....
Hello All,
Hi Baha, hope you are faring well .. here in the Turks Islands the wind has been blowing quite strongly over the last 5 days. Strangely the heaving rains missed us. Keep safe
588. rareaire 11:43 AM PDT on November 01, 2007

Hey Amy , Like he had a shot, LOL i crack myself up!!


rare, I don't understand the above comment...I think I must have missed something...can you explain please?
Perfect StormW is contacted by the Government specifically the Coast Guard for consultation and forcasts.
Bahama Beach Cam Link

Last Hour Loop from same cam Link
I STILL SAY HURICANE BY 27N AND WATCH IT BLOW UP AGAIN THIS EVE NHC TRACK IS PROBABLY TO FAR EAST IT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO EASTERN SEABOARD THAN THEY SAY
Afternoon All,
Well it sure looks like the NHC'S track has INDEED panned out lol NE it is!!!!! lol
. StormW 6:51 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey Tampa;NE...no, I'll be back...have to get the kids from school.

Ok,Storm
Everyone needs to stop bickering and ignore the ones who wont stop......Talk about the weather or move on.......
um ok...

605. weatherboyfsu 6:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Everyone needs to stop bickering and ignore the ones who wont stop......Talk about the weather or move on.......

thats what did exactly and blog looks so much cleaner without all the garbage
596. 21N71W 2:48 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Hello All,
Hi Baha, hope you are faring well .. here in the Turks Islands the wind has been blowing quite strongly over the last 5 days. Strangely the heaving rains missed us. Keep safe


Hey, I've relatives in Mayaguana who said they didn't fare too badly. By comparison Crooked Island and points north have gotten substantial rains. Glad to see u are OK.
psst..bone..that's not the navy
Bonedog you beat me to it.....lol
605. weatherboyfsu 2:52 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Everyone needs to stop bickering and ignore the ones who wont stop......Talk about the weather or move on.......


Good advice.
ricderr 11:53 AM PDT on November 01, 2007

psst..bone..that's not the navy


it's not the navy...ric's right...
551. MisterPerfect 6:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
546. NRAamy 6:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
538. MisterPerfect 11:16 AM PDT on November 01, 2007
523. icmoore 6:10 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
MP- I did not specify you as a bully but if the shoe fits...

Maybe it was the ring through my nostrils that gave it away..


Sorry, Baby...I forgot to take it out when I left Miami the last time...

Wish I could say the same thing for something else...(wink) (wink)

575. BahaHurican 6:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
541. ihave27windows 2:17 PM EDT on November 01, 2007

Good to see you as well...My windows are fine thank you....How is your hair? Blowing in the proverbial breeze of a tropical storm? LOL

Actually, no. It's been calm here for about an hour or more now . . . We're waiting for the other shoe to drop.

552. NotaYacht 2:25 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
So here we are in the Lyford Cay marina (West end New Providence/Nassau) directly under where the center of Noel?? The Baro is at 994. We have had no rain or wind for several hours -- what is the deal??


Hey, Not-a. I'm kinda curious myself what's in store for the afternoon. Is there any wind at all on the back side (SW in particular) of the storm? If not, Does this mean we're done w/ Noel in New Providence?

Baha, thanks for the reply. I was starting to think that this blog was for just for gossip and poo flinging :-)

Yes, it is very odd after al the hype we must have 20 lines out to the dock and pilings. There still is no wind the sky is getting lighter and a big blue patch is showing up to the WNW of this end of the island.

If shoes start flying by I'll wish I'd kept my mouth shut or at least touched wood.

Regards, Not-a-yacht
Good afternoon StormW. Sorry about all the crap lately.

Coastal Extratropical Cyclones:
Extratropical Cyclones Forming Along the East & Gulf Coasts


Link
storm you know your stuff...i don't think though..that you're as good as the nhc..but that's fine..you're not drawing a salary either...so...i'll take what we can get on here..your attitude as of late though...is piss poor.....maybe it's always bneen that way and i haven't seen it...either way..doesn't matter..you make me laugh time to time..and that's a good thing
sorry bout that folks

I edited my post to say Coast Guard.

my appologies again
Pat thanks for that link I added it to my favorites.
621. Patrap 6:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

Coastal Extratropical Cyclones:
Extratropical Cyclones Forming Along the East & Gulf Coasts

Pat,good information,we're all too familiar with these storms here in the northeast
Just to clarify, during times of peace the Coast Guard reports to Homeland Security and in times of war to the Navy but it isn't part of the DoD.
Listen. MrPerfect. StormW. All their entourages, supporters, hangers-on and any instigator-for-the-fun-of-it types . ..

Could we please get back to blog business??? This is strictly pride going on here, and not appropriate for the blog.

Frankly, I don't think anybody is convincing any else about anything on this issue anymore. Those who are going to take sides have done so. Let it dead here. Close shop. Finito. Case closed.

Hey. People are DYING out there because of Noel. Let's get back to the issue.
631. IKE
NRAamy 1:58 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
588. rareaire 11:43 AM PDT on November 01, 2007

Hey Amy , Like he had a shot, LOL i crack myself up!!

so, rare, you're laughing because you didn't think MisterPerfect "had a shot" with me?

hmmm...I guess you didn't know that he's my boyfriend, and the man I plan on spending the rest of my life with....

it's ok, you didn't know....



How in the world would anyone that reads the blogs on WU not know that? Your...."Countdown to Florida" blogs..volume 4, are a dead giveaway.

And one more thing....didn't anyone ever tell you that long-distance relationships don't work?
couldn't agree more Baha.

I added my two cents to try and stop all this bickering thats all.
Defenselink Link
Well, it is still sunny and winds at 5MPH in West Miami Dade.... No more TS Warning. Doomsday didn't materialize. NHC got it once more. Kudos to them although some here prefer not. So far, 20 years living in Miami, they just miss two storms: Irene 99 that was a hurricane but they didn't admit their error and the SW motion of Katrina after inland. In both cases the eye went over my home... and the NHC also (5 miles from here). I think it is a pretty good record so far, at least to this part of the US.
This one is in the bag. Let's wait the next one.
Cheers
Defenselink Blogger site: Link
Thank a troop or unit.
I am glad to hear you are safe Baha.....stay that way, ok?
bickering? whose bickering? this is one big happy family,with the help of the ignore button.
Rareaire why did you put my comment up there with their inappropriate comments. I dressed that up as not to offend.
Baha, is it still calm there? Noel really doesn't seem to be moving as fast as the NHC says on the floater.
635. Patrap 3:03 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Defenselink Blogger site: Link
Thank a troop or unit.


I thank them all every morning I wake up. We are the land of the free because of the brave!!!

Bonedog Pat, I agree! Semper Fi!
my bad icmoore . I was just answering amys question...
Senior, AKA Storm, thanks for all your input. It's very much appreciated!

MKC lurker sends
(EPO of a WPB operating out of Key West)
Excuse me, everyone in the Bahamas ...

Is it just me or does this storm seem to be acting like many other tropical storms we had over New Providence ... like they disappear before doing much of anything?

Do you all remember a few years ago a tropical storm came through the islands, disappeared south of New Providence and reappeared north of Nassau City ???

I am not knocking it; but it made me wonder ;)
SpeedMaster, I could not agree more!!! I took ALOT of flak here the past 2 days defending the NHC?? Once again they had an almost perfect forecast track 2-3 days out. Many people on here insisted on a westward track for Noel even though the NHC had the track NE with almost all the models agreeing & in a very tight cluster. Kudos is definitley deserved by the NHC!!!!!!!!
TS Noel WV Atlantic Big Pic

Link
3 pm. update. The guy who drowned walked into a pond. This happened about midday today. Reminds me of what happened with TS Erin earlier this year.

Only Abaco, Cat Island, and Eleuthera are still in the rain bands. Centre is supposed to pass between Eleuthera and Abaco later today.

Not-a, They are saying only heavy winds and scattered showers behind the centre. I feel like we missed a bullet. I don't think Nassau was ready for the heavy rains that fell around the tropic of Cancer . . .
Is the cold front moving across florida supposed to produce strong gusty winds while pushing noel NE?
Thanks Rareaire for clearing that up for me.
655. KS4EC
Well I was going to post more info on the FLA wx here but this obviously isn't the place for a wx discussion anymore I tried to hide all of the bickering posts but then nothing showed up!

Anyway if there is still wx people on here, this is a quote from Emergency.org

STORM SURGE & STORM TIDE.
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SE COAST FROM MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THROUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY. SEVERE EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES.PARTICULARLY FROM LANTANA NO. TO JUPITER WHERE EXTREME BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE N. PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST.ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR BY 330 PM. THE IMPACT ON THE N. PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DUE TO THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE COASTLINE TO INCOMING NORTHEAST SWELLS. THEREFORE.THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

Storms going away but we are still getting pounded!
Guys I am on florida's west coast is the cold front combined with noel supposed to make strong wind here? Thanks in advance
Flood, you still on here? What vorticity map were you looking at regarding the circulation at about 52W?
oh yea I was wrong about saying south florida hit but i wasnt wishcasting I was going off my LIMITED knowledge

so yes I do not know too much about weather

tropicsdude not anything significant. The pressure gradiant isnt tight enough
Hiya NotaYacht :)
Isn't it really dry out West for the last few hours?
People where I am are drying out on their porches and balconies :)
thanks bonedog. just wondering because earlier the nws discussion said gusts to 31 mph tonight
in saint petersburg....
tropics you might have gusts here and there but nothing of a sustained nature
West of Ft. Lauderdale we have had a nice breeze and mostly sunny skies with several short periods of FAST moving showers.

It is a good time to remind myself that I come into this blog for the entertainment and not for the "science".
thanks bonedog. In the evenings I like to watch my canal and feel the breezy marine breeze and smell the marine waters of Tampa Bay. Breezes will keep it nice and cool.

Horrible tragedy that noel killed 81 people.
That rain should have fallen in drought SE US areas where there would be much fewer deaths.
Please knock it off. I am using this blog in a seventh grade science class as this nonsense continues. Can you hear the sound of sixty eyes rolling?

Thank you :)
Fshhead:

Sure !!!! Instead of bashing them we should helping them fight for more resources as they have been asking for so long. We do spend a lot of money in BS and we do not fund a service that save lives not here in the US but around the world. I'm quite sure that with approriate funds they would extend their track precision to a couple of more days.

Kudos and thanks for their and NOAA jets crew work.

Cheers
In the end the NHC was dead on the track with Noel missing South Florida and moving through the Bahamas. What they missed was the way it got there.

Early on they projected Noel to go south of Cuba, hit 80 west then turn north. Then Noel kept relocating north so they projected Noel to move NNW and not come close to Cuba. So what happens, Noel turns west.

It kind of playing a golf hole. It is the score that matters, not how you got there.
All you guys who did go for the westward movement, don't sweat it man!!!! Hey it's weather & its not a perfected science to say the least lol As pointed out the NHC does make mistakes like everyone. Man I lived through one of their worst blunders Hurricane Andrew!!
I do want to point out though that they ARE pretty accurate on forecast track when the NOAA jets fly the storm & all that info is feed into the models. When models show tight cluster like they have with Noel for 2 days. Pretty safe bet thats where its going!!!
So once again KUDOS to the NHC for a job well done!!
Yes NHC does a great job. They are excellent hard workers.
The WU blog, you'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll sit on the edge of your seat... What's the new buzzword... Dramedy! Okay everyone group hug!

I guess Flood left. Does anyone have a great vorticity link for me?
STOP ALL THE GO%DA*& BICKERING, ONEUPSMANSHIP, ARGUING AND WHAT VERE ELSE YOU WANT TO CALL IT. GROW THE F&*K UP AND STOP ACTING LIKE 8 YEAR OLDS IN A SANDBOX OVER A TONKA TRUCK!!! ALL YOU ARE DOING IS TAKING UP BLOG SPACE WITH BULLS*&T. TAKE IT TO YOUR OWN BLOGS OR THROUGH WONDERMAIL.

I have added you to my extensive ignore list for now.
675. NEwxguy 3:19 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
672. IKE 7:17 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
MisterPerfect 2:13 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
631. IKE 7:02 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

Ike, we all know why he and she is here.
Bonedog:

Belated thanks for the HDW answer!

Cheers.
10/31/2007
USS RONALD REAGAN
USS Ronald Reagan departs its homeport of San Diego, Calif., Oct. 29, 2007, following a planned incremental availability period to begin sea trials. U.S. Navy photo by Senior Chief Petty Officer Spike Call


Link
647. mybahamas 3:07 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Excuse me, everyone in the Bahamas ...

Is it just me or does this storm seem to be acting like many other tropical storms we had over New Providence ... like they disappear before doing much of anything?

Do you all remember a few years ago a tropical storm came through the islands, disappeared south of New Providence and reappeared north of Nassau City ???

I am not knocking it; but it made me wonder ;)


Do you remember Hurricane Michelle, 2001? Cat 3 as it crossed Cuba, headed straight for Nassau. By the time it got here, it was stripped. All the rain went before, the winds came after. I know we have been extremely fortunate here - blessed, really. It's been a long time since we've had a direct hit on the capital by a serious storm of any kind. I hope we are not becoming complacent.
Fshead

I was here during Andrew *eye about 15 miles south* and got 137Mph wind. As I remember Andrew was a 36 hour forecast when the ridge build up unexpectedly. Sure it was short time but it was 1992 and systems and data were different then. It was not a big problem to find a shelter (I've lived in the 4th and last floor of a condo then). I'm quite sure that today it wouldn't happen. I don't think Andrew was a bad forecast but a late one...
594. MisterPerfect 6:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
or that wunderblogger would be consulted by the government.

Ummm, What do you think the Coast Guard is?
denvan no problem. glad to help
651. BahaHurican 3:09 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
3 pm. update. The guy who drowned walked into a pond. This happened about midday today. Reminds me of what happened with TS Erin earlier this year.


Now I'm hearing the guys actually DROVE into the pond. [sigh]
624. NRAamy 6:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007 Hide this comment.
588. rareaire 11:43 AM PDT on November 01, 2007

Hey Amy , Like he had a shot, LOL i crack myself up!!

so, rare, you're laughing because you didn't think MisterPerfect "had a shot" with me?

hmmm...I guess you didn't know that he's my boyfriend, and the man I plan on spending the rest of my life with....

it's ok, you didn't know....

No offense to anyone but that is one of the funniest interactions I have ever seen on a blog ROFLMAO
my prayers for him and his family and to all the rest of the folks whos lives are forever changed by Noel
677. CatastrophicDL 7:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
The WU blog, you'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll sit on the edge of your seat... What's the new buzzword... Dramedy! Okay everyone group hug!

I guess Flood left. Does anyone have a great vorticity link for me?



Sorry, rebuilding a server drive...here's the Link
StormW thanks for your excellent forcasts. Glad to see your keeping a level head and staying above the fray.

BTW my rasnt post was not directed at you sir.

Keep up the good work sir alot of folks appreciate the hard work you do.
697. IKE
Bonedog 2:27 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
sorry to the rest of the blog about my shouting.

I appologize to you all.


I'm through with my rant now and I apologize to the "good" bloggers on here and Dr. Masters.
Saved by the bell. Yeah, my students are always ready for educative blog comments while at school, and that's why if they want to read the comments on MY blog, they do so at home! lol

I just don't want to find THIS blog fall victim to my school district's Internet filter. They routinely review websites visited in classrooms, and are VERY strict on what they consider "educational" during teachers' instructional hours. I have no way to circumvent any blocks imposed by the district. This blog should remain accessible to my students!!

Gotta go supervise dismissal :)

Thanks for all the input regarding Noel.

Conjunction junction, what's your function???
No problem Storm.

IKE I see that and its much appreciated.

Now maybe we all can get back to weather :)
Wow Missed A lot today!

Cat one in the NE?
flood,you don't know how lucky you've been this afternoon
Flood, thanks just what I was looking for. That forecast looks like some strong weather is headed for Washington state.
Ike good choice.
705. V26R
Okay what did I miss NEWX???
Greyelf 12:31 PM PDT on November 01, 2007

Perhaps the implication was that he and she are one and the same, hence, "is".


Nope, that's funnier, sydney....
NoName I think its supposed to be extratropical by then but yes the Maritimes and possibly Cape Cod are bracing for Cat 1 force winds
v2 nothing much.
OhOh this blog is losing posts lol Posted long one a couple of mins ago & it never appeared
Noel is on his way...Looks like Florida survived very well this year. I hope I just didn't jinx anything for Nov.
Storm you rock.
I don't think people realize that you almost predict the future.
Weather is interesting....then add Storm's forcasts and insight, and it becomes facinating.
As a TOTAL aside, off-topic comment, it's really scary to hear all the songs you know being played as part of an "old-school Thursday" . . . and to realize that 1/2 the people on this blog don't have a clue what "funky" is REALLY supposed to mean.

Ah, the good old days, when pop songs were about skating and what my momma used to say . . .
713. V26R
Okay standard Daytime drama then!!!
Guess we are standing by for a Blog Replacement Cycle to begin
or are we already there?
710. HurricaneGeek 7:38 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Noel is on his way...Looks like Florida survived very well this year. I hope I just didn't jinx anything for Nov.


Shhhhhhh the Atlantic will hear you!!! lol
can't believe the nice weather here... always that left side of a system... breezy but not out of control... just a bad-hair day in Miami area.
This was just issued up here




...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...

.THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL EVOLVE INTO A STRONG
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY...AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.


...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

DAMAGING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS ON CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH.

ALONG THE COAST FROM PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.

FARTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERSTATE 495 CORRIDOR...WINDS MAY BE A BIT
WEAKER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. HOWEVER...
THESE LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES SINCE
MANY TREES STILL HAVE THEIR LEAVES.

KEEP IN MIND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WOULD DECREASE IF IT TRACKS FARTHER OFFSHORE...
BUT WOULD INCREASE OVER MORE OF THE AREA IF IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
LLC almost looks like a NW track again, but ULL keeps going NE JMO.
702. NEwxguy 7:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
flood,you don't know how lucky you've been this afternoon



I've been reading the backblog...it's very compelling...compelling me to take a xanax...it's like trhowing three cats in a bag and shaking them up; no one walks away without a scratch!
As I stated before, no one person's opinion is higher than the almoghty. It has been a long afore mentioned topic with bloggers on this site how, especially in this specific blog, some older men can not accept the opinions of younger and much more educated men within this cramped space. It is the older gentlemen that often refer to using playground castigations and elementary coherence when their normal comments are met with some criticism from bloggers who typically don't care to argue thier forlorn and often incorrect views on the topics at hand on a regular basis. I've seen the best and worst in people, and today is a prime example of how some people think they own this blog and lambaste those they despise. There is no law in this country that says one man's opinion is greater than the next. IKE, I think you are defending your opinions a little immaturely but even that is acceptable to a degree. I am sorry if I have upset anyone, even StormW whom I have ignored for the better half of this year for being brash and a weather aristocrat. I care not for his forecasts or opinions on life, let alone the weather. I think you older men should recognize younger and eager fans of the atmosphere and teach them any wisdom you can offer instead of rapidly exposing some of their faults and weaknesses and lobbying other bloggers to ignore them. That alone makes my blood boil. Choosing to ignore is fine, but politicing other to and bullying people to up and leave is more of a gang or posse mentality and I think its disgusting. Many of you are guilty of this. I come here for the weather...if you hadn't noticed there is a tropical system a hundred plus miles off of MY COAST AND I'LL VOICE MY OPINION WHEN AND WHERE I DAMN PLEASE. Got that IKE and the rest of you has beens? Thanks, and sorry for being so perfect.
hey, baja... :hand-raised: I know what funky means... *Play That Funky Music*... have I dated myself now? LOL
719. Floodman 7:41 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
702. NEwxguy 7:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
flood,you don't know how lucky you've been this afternoon



I've been reading the backblog...it's very compelling...compelling me to take a xanax...it's like trhowing three cats in a bag and shaking them up; no one walks away without a scratch!

yeh,had to wipe some blood off my screen
Baha, are you referring to frightened, smelly or a syncopated rhythm?
725. V26R
Interesting analogy Flood
Somehow fits right in here!
NEwx - isn't the anniversary of THE PERFECT STORM right about now? Y'day or today? sounds like Noel wants his name removed from the list. As if 81+ DEATHS WOULDN'T DO IT
well NE better go tie down the lawn furniture and bring the grill into the garage
Not starting contraverse but Accu-weather i think had this track post yesterday. I may be wrong.
729. V26R
NEWX OKX has been talking about the possibility all day down here, so far no warnings or advisories for Montalk or Westward
Flood,I got to be honest when I started visiting here,never envisioned a weatherblog to be like this,find myself rotfl most of the day,and today has been extra special.
731. V26R
Hey Bone think Noel will bring and lake effect snows to Buffalo?
The Perfect Storm was yesterday Halloween :(

733. SEFL
"719. Floodman 7:41 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
702. NEwxguy 7:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
flood,you don't know how lucky you've been this afternoon



I've been reading the backblog...it's very compelling...compelling me to take a xanax...it's like trhowing three cats in a bag and shaking them up; no one walks away without a scratch!"

Correction...a cat fight would be more compelling and have more redeeming value than most of this afternoon's conversations. Three year olds would be more entertaining.

Hey Flood, Hope you read some of my posts. Like I said earlier don't sweat it man!!! Weather is not a perfect science to say the least.
V2 doubt it winds will from the wrong direction and also too far out to sea. Watch the next system thats coming everything will be in place for lake effect how much is uncertain right now
726. cgableshurrycanegal 7:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NEwx - isn't the anniversary of THE PERFECT STORM right about now? Y'day or today? sounds like Noel wants his name removed from the list. As if 81+ DEATHS WOULDN'T DO

It was actually last night,I remember they had to cancel outdoor halloween.
NEwxguy, maybe I'll date myself, but I have a hard time with abbreviations - I never text anything. So I'm going to sound stupid, but I can't figure out what ROTFL stands for.
738. V26R
Man if someone wanted to do a Thesis on the Psychological Effects of disorders of the Human mind while at a computer, this would be the place for research!
727. Bonedog 7:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
well NE better go tie down the lawn furniture and bring the grill into the garage

I've been slow putting away my deck furniture,guess what I'm going to be doing the next couple of nights.
741. V26R
Okay guess its not gonna bring down the cold air like I thought
This site is the most educational and entertaining form of creative avoidance I have ever found.
NE if Noel tracksa a little more West we may have another Halloween Gail to worry about :( Yea I know it will be a few days late but you get the point :)~
Flood I don't need the cats but your humor and the xanax are great!
The broad center of Noel must still be over the eastern end of New Providence as the pressure has been holding steady at 29.28" for the past two hours. Winds are calm and I have recorded just over 7" of rain so far.
ROTFL Rolling on the floor laughing.
747. V26R
ROTFL= Rolling on the floor laughing
i had this track wed before any one including accu and nhc ask haha
na V2 too far out to sea.
The front train is starting to roll!!!!
Link

WOOOHOOO LET WINTER BEGIN!!!
721. cgableshurrycanegal 3:42 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
hey, baja... :hand-raised: I know what funky means... *Play That Funky Music*... have I dated myself now? LOL


Ah, an age mate . . . lol
752. V26R
CASTROP Guess we're all running away from something or another here

Wait now Im dating myself
742. CatastrophicDL 7:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
This site is the most educational and entertaining form of creative avoidance I have ever found.

lol,thats a great way of putting it.
JFV earlier we were discussing the circulation at about 52W. There is also a tropical wave at 74W that may do something once Noel is gone and there may be an additional wave in the ICTZ.
755. 786
StormW since the blog is absorbed in pointing fingers and not paying attn to someone like me who would love to learn could you please tell me your thoughts on the two waves at 74W and 52W??? Thanks in advance
I see MrPerfect's and NRAmy's posts have been removed. It seems that was at about the same time that someone else said their post wasn't showing up. I wonder if that's some sort of bug?
745. NasBahMan 3:49 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
The broad center of Noel must still be over the eastern end of New Providence as the pressure has been holding steady at 29.28" for the past two hours. Winds are calm and I have recorded just over 7" of rain so far.


You have a rain guage???? My man . . . R u out east? SW New Providence here . . .

Welcome to the blog, btw.
Thank you Dr. M. for starting a new blog (yes, a new one has replaced this one). I guess I should quickly preview the comments before projecting an eight foot image of this blog in front of a roomfull of thirteen-year-olds. Add that to the other 4,238 menial things I need to do during the course of a school day... whoa.
759. IKE
By JESSICA ROBERTSON - Associated Press Writer

NASSAU, Bahamas(AP) Tropical Storm Noel drenched the Bahamas and Cuba on Thursday while rescue workers in the Dominican Republic headed out in boats and helicopters to reach dozens of communities isolated by floods and mudslides. The death toll in the Caribbean rose to 107.
761. V26R
786 Not too sure about the 74w wave
But the 52w wave is looking interesting
Haven't looked at the shear in the area but
if it continues as it has , might
be something for the people down island
to watch
756. Greyelf 3:55 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I see MrPerfect's and NRAmy's posts have been removed. It seems that was at about the same time that someone else said their post wasn't showing up. I wonder if that's some sort of bug?



Most likely an "administrative" one. People prolly minused them.
763. V26R
Well Damon maybe you should be concentrating more on school and less on computer activities then!
NeWxguy you gotta check out the 1800 UTC steering flow. At 500-850mb click on -3hr and +3hr...interesting... get ready...Link
Thanks for your input V26R. When one of my students in one of my science classes fails the FCAT next April, I'll take it to heart. In the meantime, I'll continue using computer technology in my classroom, as it seems to have been working for the past ten years.
767. V26R
Tampa think that Hi is going to move far enuff off the coast so it will give Ole Noel some breathing room and not force it as far west as everyone thinks it will
768. 786
Catastophic and v26r thx for you comments, much appreciated, i think that 52W could be interesting too
769. V26R
Damon thanx for the Troll input
767. V26R 4:01 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Tampa think that Hi is going to move far enuff off the coast so it will give Ole Noel some breathing room and not force it as far west as everyone thinks it will


Just an observation, but the last 3 hours the steering has pushed W from the Atlantic high..don't know tho.
Steering Layer 500-850mb 1800 UTC
-3hr.

+3hr.
Hey Baha, I have been keeping rain records for Eastern New Providence since the early 80's, officially for the government since 1997. Pressure is just now begining to rise 29.29".
773. IKE
NEW BLOG!
662. mybahamas 7:13 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hiya NotaYacht :)
Isn't it really dry out West for the last few hours?
People where I am are drying out on their porches and balconies :)

Mybahamas
And now for 45 min a westerly filling in with rain here at Lyford Cay.
Regards, Not-a-Yacht