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Noel over water, headed north towards the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:50 PM GMT on October 31, 2007

Deadly Tropical Storm Noel has popped off the coast of Cuba and is headed north, according to the latest hurricane hunter data from 8:49am EDT this morning. The hurricane hunter data put Noel's center at 22.7 north, which is about 100 miles north of the coast of Cuba. Part of this northward motion was probably a relocation of the center underneath an impressive blow-up of thunderstorm activity visible on the latest satellite loops. These thunderstorms are generating rains of up to 1/2 inch per hour. Top winds found by the Hurricane Hunters were 40 mph, but these winds are expected to increase today as Noel re-organizes after its long stay over Cuba.

Hispaniola
The rains continue to fall over hard-hit Hispaniola, where the death toll is at least 43, with many more missing. Most of the deaths were in the southern part of the Dominican Republic just west of the capital of Santo Domingo, where up to 19 inches of rain has have fallen. An additional 1-3 inches of rain fell in the 24 hours ending at 2am EDT today (Figure 1), and an additional 1-4 inches is likely by Thursday morning. The rains should taper off Thursday as Noel pulls away from the island. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county.

Cuba and the Bahamas
Rains have also been heavy over the Bahamas, where some islands have received six inches of rain. Nearby ocean areas have gotten up to ten inches. Cuba has fared better, with maximum rainfall amounts less than six inches. The rains will continue into Thursday then taper off as Noel pulls away to the north.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall for the 24 hours ending at 2am EDT Wednesday, 10/31/07. Rainfall is in millimeters, and 1" = about 25 mm, so orange colors are 10" of rain. Noel dumped as much as 10 inches of rain over ocean areas in the Central Bahamas, and an additional three inches over hard-hit regions of the Dominican Republic that had already received 10-17 inches earlier this week. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Camaguey, Cuba radar.
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

The forecast
Visible satellite from this morning suggests that the surface circulation and mid-level circulation are closer together, which will aid in intensification of Noel today as the storm pushes off the coast. Wind shear is 10-20 knots, which will allow some modest strengthening. By Thursday, wind shear is expected to increase to 25 knots, halting any intensification as a tropical storm. The latest computer model runs from 00Z and 06Z this morning all take Noel through the Bahamas, over or near Andros Island and Nassau. The SHIPS and GFDL intensity models forecast that Noel will have 60 mph top winds by Thursday afternoon, when the storm should be leaving the Bahamas. The HWRF model does not intensify Noel. I expect some intensification, given the better vertical alignment of the surface and mid-level centers of Noel, respectable 995 mb pressure just measured by the Hurricane Hunters, and the improved satellite appearance of the storm. A storm with 50-60 mph top winds on Thursday afternoon is a reasonable forecast. None of the models take Noel over South Florida, and the region most likely to suffer wind damage from Noel will be the Canadian Maritime provinces of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Noel is expected to transition to, or be absorbed by, an extratropical storm on Thursday. This extratropical storm will then intensify, potentially bringing sustained winds of 55-75 mph to the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Impact on Florida
There is no change to the forecast for Florida. Noel will pass east of the state as a weak but strengthening tropical storm. Winds will probably blow 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph along the coast of Florida on Thursday morning, when Noel makes its closest approach. Florida will be on the dry side of Noel, thanks to upper level winds from the west that will be creating about 15-25 knots of wind shear over the storm. Expect occasional heavy rain showers with rain amounts totaling 1-3 inches if you live along the Southeast Florida coast. Most of Noel's heavy rains should stay offshore. The main hazard from Noel will be beach erosion, thanks to the 10-foot seas expected to pound area beaches.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Havn't looked at this since this AM but it looks to me that noel hasn't moved at all in last 6 hours or so. Also looks like the system associated with noel is pushing the ridge over FL back to the North West. What do yall think?
Yoderfunk sure resembles John Daly.
1004. Dakster
Storm! Welcome back... I bet you are having a fun time right now.

Funny, how the CMC and BammS, the two most "unreliable" models seem to be doing ok with this one...
Thanks.. I think jupiterflorida, you pass a resemblance to jude law
873. canesfins 3:26 PM EDT on October 31, 2007
Sunny here in Ft Lauderdale. The NHC has it right - just like they usually do. You guys mostly have it wrong, just like you usually do. Wet day for Nassau tomorrow.


Waddaya mean, TOMORROW??? It's been raining here since Tuesday morning . . . and turn or no turn looks to be raining here until Friday . . . Maybe next Tuesday . . .
1009. Patrap
Halloweenish here.
Feeling well enough today. Busy tropics .
1010. Bonedog
Dak look at the BAMS again. It has it going southwest back over Cuba and into the Yucatan. I really dont see that happening but agree with you on the CMC it has been a left outlier this whole time
7daysnopowerfrancis, there is always time later for a test. And only a handful of days per lifetime to go trick-or-treating with the kids.
I want this thing to start moving soon this is crazy
The Models are NOT Shifting Left and The Storm
will Not Hit SFla.

This Stuff Is Wishcasting to The Extreme! (LOL)

Noel is Right on Track and The Westward Movement Has Been all But Completely Halted.

The only way Noel Can Move West Now is if She Weakens To The Lower Level Steering which is
Not Gonna Happen because she is Strengthening.

The NHC Has Done an Outstanding Job On NOEL.
Dakster when you said "wind shear" wipers that was a joke right?
hoo boy we are ALL in trouble now - we got pat(full of pent up energy from being restrained) , we got gulf (in his skirt) and nash (the birthday boy sporting his wnw speedos) and stormw (with the most-honed needle in se USA) - the naked swirls will fly now.....jo
I'm in FT LAUD..sunny? maybe for 10mins then back to squally stuff and it has been very windy all day. I'm out west...it is even worse on the coast
1019. Hhunter
guys and storm saw you where on..just read bastardi updates...He is concerned. says center jumped north but moving west still. Worried that it is at 79 now and if it gets to 80 could be problem. Worried of 20-30mb drop tonight concern of possible worst case cat 2 -3 storm that could bring some hurricane force winds to the florida coast. Worry that slight possiblity some of the eye wall could make it to the coast. Says much vigilance will need to be taken in watching the weather and not the models the next few hours. Some folks in south florida listening to the wrong sources could be caught by suprise....

wow! Im impressed
phill from channel 7 actually told us that theres a chance it could hit us directly
he usually just reads wha the nhc says
Who ever knew he had his own opinions =P

ehhh =[
he said its drifting west and now with new model showing noel going sw, he saod that the cone will probably shift west
Noel is a boy's name!!! Melissa was the girl name.
The NAM has been calling for some sort of split in the lows for several days now. One goes west and one goes north. I guess there is a possibility that everyone could be right. All I know is that we have had enough rain in Northern Palm Beach County to last for long time. I haven't run the sprinklers in weeks. I hope some of this is going into the lake so the politicos can shut their pie holes and take us off of water restrictions. (Although it doesn't really matter here because the City of Jupiter refuses to enforce it)
1023. nash28
The NHC Has Done an Outstanding Job On NOEL.

ACKPFFFT!!!!

I almost coughed up my spleen.

stormW you think this is going to go more west
It could be just starting to make a move or went for some more cigars......lol
Afternoon folks

Home for lunch and the first post I see is Islands...and, having been at work for 4 hours...have to say the same thing...It's still in the same place it was 4 hours ago
1027. NEwxguy
1014. TropicalNonsense 8:04 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
The Models are NOT Shifting Left and The Storm
will Not Hit SFla.

This Stuff Is Wishcasting to The Extreme! (LOL)

Noel is Right on Track and The Westward Movement Has Been all But Completely Halted.

The only way Noel Can Move West Now is if She Weakens To The Lower Level Steering which is
Not Gonna Happen because she is Strengthening.

The NHC Has Done an Outstanding Job On NOEL.


This message has been approved by the NHC
Thanks.. I think jupiterflorida, you pass a resemblance to jude law

i've been told i resemble ed the talking horse..
from the back of course of course
1029. Bonedog
oppps I see it now Nonsense a joker post LOL my bad sory
Weaker Models Do Better With Weaker Systems.

Bamm,CMC,LBAR etc are Good For Tropical Storms.
1031. Drakoen
can you guys please not quote the trolls. It defeats the purpose of ignoring them...
The NHC has not done an oustanding job with Noel. Yes, they have predicted the big turn to the N.E.
But thats about it. They've been wrong about everything else. They've been consistantly off on the forecast path by hundreds of miles (ask the people of cuba).
Drak, You did not use the "T" word did you...lol
I saw that with the NAM wind plots this morning too, Jupiter. Actually, yesterday the low made a beeline straight up the middle of florida and I laughed because someone 'casted' that day before yesterday as a joke
1037. Patrap
Cuban Radar Loop Link
1038. Drakoen
1034. TampaSpin 8:09 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Drak, You did not use the "T" word did you...lol


LOL. i'm not suppose to?
1028. FloridaScuba 3:07 PM CDT on October 31, 2007
Thanks.. I think jupiterflorida, you pass a resemblance to jude law

i've been told i resemble ed the talking horse..
from the back of course of course



I look like Groucho Marx, in real life, except I don't have to paint on my moustache...LOL
1041. NEwxguy
1031. Drakoen 8:08 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
can you guys please not quote the trolls. It defeats the purpose of ignoring them...

your right hard to ignore the NHC employees.
The Navy COAMPS model has done well the last few days, but its only a short range model.
nnwnne
1008. BahaHurican 8:02 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
873. canesfins 3:26 PM EDT on October 31, 2007
Sunny here in Ft Lauderdale. The NHC has it right - just like they usually do. You guys mostly have it wrong, just like you usually do. Wet day for Nassau tomorrow.

Waddaya mean, TOMORROW??? It's been raining here since Tuesday morning . . . and turn or no turn looks to be raining here until Friday . . . Maybe next Tuesday . .


I spoke with my Mom in Nassau earlier and she said its just a bit gusty but not a lot of rain, her store is open today and people are out shopping. Rain will pick up tomorrow.
Ewww, Nash...bits of sleen everywhere
1046. Bonedog
people tell me I look like that guy in that movie, you know, the tall guy ;)
Ok, here's wut kind of a geek "I" am. I saved the RGB image before I went to work...just saved the new one, overlayed the new one as a transparency......guess what? It no move *hehehe*
1038. Drakoen 4:10 PM EDT on October 31, 2007
1034. TampaSpin 8:09 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Drak, You did not use the "T" word did you...lol

LOL. i'm not suppose to?


Bro, your labeled now as THE ADMINStor....lol
1049. Drakoen
1041. NEwxguy 8:10 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
1031. Drakoen 8:08 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
can you guys please not quote the trolls. It defeats the purpose of ignoring them...

your right hard to ignore the NHC employees.


why would i ignore the NHC....
it's not totally off topic either because word is that mr ed actually predicted a westward movement
NE? That's kind of like FEMA's press conference last week where the questioners were FEMA employee's NOT the press *laffs*
Well if my wind shear costume blows away outside tonight I can try my troll costume.
1054. nash28
Ok, now I am REALLY LAUGHING!!!!
I DO have to say...looking at the difficulty everyone's had HERE with Noel...I sure wouldnt want to be those folks at the NHC. What a difficult job.

Now, having said THAT, it just would have been nice to see a little more discussion about observations vs. model forecasts *shrugs*
1038. Drakoen 3:10 PM CDT on October 31, 2007
1034. TampaSpin 8:09 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Drak, You did not use the "T" word did you...lol

LOL. i'm not suppose to?


Drak, it's the old "Speak the devil's name and he will appear" LOL...and look, he did!
1057. Drakoen
Jeff Masters has a new blog up guys...
Sportsguy? If your WINDSHEAR costume gets blown away...you COULD be arrested for indecent exposure :))
New Blog...
1060. Hhunter
Link

looks on the visible loop like there is still west movement in low leve circulation a little west of the blow up....thoughts.
915. BAH 7:39 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
872. BahaHurican 7:26 PM GMT on October 31, 2007

BAH, where are u from?? Are u a new blogger?

Coral Springs, in lovely Broward County. I'm new to posting but lurked since this blog's early days.

Nice to have u on here. Ah West Broward, my home away from home . . . lol

982. MasterForecaster 7:46 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
7daysnopowerfrancis,

DONT type up the test!
im sure your kids wont study tonight anyways.

and i find it funny that as kids wait up tot the last minute to do their HW,
teacher wait up to the last minute to write the tests...

always preaching dont procrastinate, dont procrastinate.....lol


This also cracked me up. I don't blame u though, 7days. Why type history when u can type history-in-the-making, i. e. blogging? LOL
1044. canesfins 4:11 PM EDT on October 31, 2007

I spoke with my Mom in Nassau earlier and she said its just a bit gusty but not a lot of rain, her store is open today and people are out shopping. Rain will pick up tomorrow.


Where is her shop? It's been raining off and on here since yesterday. Nothing heavy in the long term. Just when things looked like they would pick up here, Noel took that southward jog into Cuba.

It's been pouring in Long Island, though, and the flooding they had last week has been severely exacerbated.
Great picture, seflagamma, of the butterfly shoving po' lil Noel around.
1064. Hhunter
i think i am not quite as sure as DR. Masters about intensity or little impact on south florida, not often I have felt this way.

1065. Hhunter
bastardi says that vigilance should be kept in south florida...worst case hurricane conditions in the next 24-36 hours...
1066. 0741
bastardi says that vigilance should be kept in south florida...worst case hurricane conditions in the next 24-36 hours...
you read too much what jb say
1067. Dakster
I'm sure someone has posted this before me. But So. FLorida is in a tropical storm WATCH right now...