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Noel hits Cuba and weakens significantly

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:46 PM GMT on October 30, 2007

Tropical Storm Noel made landfall in eastern Cuba this morning, and has weakened significantly as a result. Top winds are now 45 mph near the center, but this morning's QuikSCAT pass also noted winds up to 50 mph about 150 miles to the north of Noel's center, in the central Bahamas. Top winds measured in Cuba this morning have been at Canagua, where the winds were 28 mph gusting to 39 mph at 8am EDT. Canagua is on the north central coast of Cuba, south of Andros Island in the Bahamas. Georgetown in the central Bahamas measured sustained winds of 27 mph gusting to 36 mph at 7am EDT. A good way to track current wind readings along Noel's path is to use our Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Canagua, Cuba.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall rate at 2:58 am EDT Tuesday 10/30/07 for Tropical Storm Noel. The heaviest rains of one inch per hour were observed in the central Bahamas. Heavy rains up to 1/2 inch per hour were still affecting Haiti and the Dominican Republic on the island of Hispaniola. Image credit: NOAA.

Noel's rains
Noel's main threat continues to be heavy rains. Rainfall rates of up to one inch per hour are affecting the central Bahamas today (Figure 1), and Haiti and the Dominican Republic are getting up to 1/2 inch per hour. The heaviest rains from Noel have fallen over the southern coast of the Dominican Republic near the capital of Santo Domingo, where over a foot of rain has fallen (Figure 2). A nation-wide power outage knocked out power to all of the Dominican Republic for two hours yesterday, and flooding damage is reportedly heavy. Haiti has fared better, with peak rainfall totals of 6-8 inches in regions near the Dominican Republic border. Both nations can expect to receive another 5-7 inches in isolated regions before the rains finally subside Wednesday night. These rains will cause very dangerous flash floods, particularly in Haiti, where deforestation has left only 1.4% of the original forest cover remaining. Media reports put the death toll so far in the Dominican Republic at 20, with 20 more missing, and this toll is almost certain to go higher. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county.


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall for the week ending at 11pm EDT Monday 10/29/07. Image credit: NASA.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Holguin, Cuba radar
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Canagua, Cuba

The forecast
The latest computer model runs from 00Z and 06Z this morning had the luxury of using data from last night's flight of the NOAA jet. This usually produces track forecasts that are 20% better. The models are in good agreement that Noel will move west-northwest to northwest during the next 24 hours, then recurve sharply to the north, just offshore the coast of South Florida. The models are off to a bad start, because Noel is tracking almost due west this morning, something the models did not anticipate. This increases the chance that Noel will recurve father to the west and pass over South Florida. However, passage over Cuba is weakening Noel, and it is looking much less likely Noel will be able to attain Category 1 hurricane strength. I give Noel a 30% chance of making a direct hit on South Florida, with a 5% chance that such a strike will be as a Category 1 hurricane. The most likely scenario is that Noel will pass 50-200 miles off the coast of South Florida Halloween night through Thursday morning as a weak but strengthening tropical storm, with top winds of 40-50 mph. Winds will probably be sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph along the coast. Florida will be on the dry side of Noel, thanks to upper level winds from the west that will be creating about 20 knots of wind shear over the storm. Expect occasional heavy rain showers with rain amounts totaling 1-3 inches if you live along the Southeast Florida coast. Most of Noel's heavy rains should stay offshore.

I'll have an update late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Overflowing Creek
Overflowing Creek
This is a small creek that runs through town, usually 1 foot wide. About 1 ft. of shore has been lost and is threatening the treeline.
Damaged Roads
Damaged Roads
The water level is down from last night...don't know yet if there is still a bridge under there...

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. NRAamy
thanks Gumby...

:)
1002. 0741
did stormw do his report? i would know if you think it will regain to be strong ts or die over cuba??????
968. NRAamy 2:52 PM CDT on October 30, 2007
I'd love to see some frost...some rain....some snow...somethin' anything other than ash and dried up vegetation due to this long drought....

do you get snow there in DFW?



They say we do...I just moved here in June, so I'm hoping; I grew up in MO, where it snows pretty frequently, but I moved here from NOLA, where it snows not at all...
Does anyone else think it's hilarious how most weather people on TV just look at the Cone and say "this is where it's going" they don't look at any factors etc, for example, Ferro on CH 7 right now...
StSimons,
There is quite a bit of activity to the north...and east.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
I got it the longer it takes to get out of Cuba the worse it is for us.
Im scared of this becoming how katrina was in s. fl
My shed blew away and we had tools and some like plywood boards and htose things went flying into the french doors, just missing the glass! It was very scary =/

I hope this stays on the weak side , because we wont have time to prepare , and I still have huge leaks in my roof with the tarp over
A note from the Miami-Dade department of emergency management:

The NWS Miami Forecast Office has advised that we may have sustained winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph tonight and continuing most of tomorrow. We have been advised by Miami-Dade Transit Agency that Metrorail and the buses will continue to operate as long as sustained winds remain below 40 mph. The Port of Miami is at Port Condition Whisky with no restrictions at this time other than a warning to mariners that the drawbridges may be locked down (Note that Wednesday is not a cruise day at the Port). Miami International Airport is at normal operations at this time but anticipate delays for flights from Haiti and the Dominican Republic.



Additionally, since the track of Tropical Storm Noel has moved to the east and we are no longer in “the cone,” Miami Dade County Public Schools will remain open tomorrow.
Noel is now a low level decoupled circulation being steered by the strong high pressure to the north. That is why he is going west.
1010. nash28
Noel cannot move NW or N while under a 1034mb ridge.
1011. NRAamy
Flood...well, I think some snow can be fun....hope you get some this year...

:)

1012. vortfix
TampaSpin.......AT 250 HPA TWO HIGH CENTERS ARE ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN...ONE
EAST OF BELIZE/YUCATAN AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. BETWEEN
THESE TWO ANTICYCLONES...THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE NEAR THE CENTER OF TS NOEL.
..WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EAST OF JAMAICA.


From the HPC Carib discussion.
i just moved from the dfw area and the three years that i lived up there it snowed 2 times. from what i've been told, dfw gets ice. the snow that we got didn't, and can't compair to MO.
1001. NRAamy 8:02 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
thanks Gumby...

:)


My pleasure, Amy!
1011. NRAamy 3:04 PM CDT on October 30, 2007
Flood...well, I think some snow can be fun....hope you get some this year...

:)



Thank you, Amy...I love the stuff myself
I think weather and tropical systems are so phnomenal!!
I think its cool that what is keeping Noel from going North is invisable. And what cuased wilma to make that long antipacted hook east, is also nothing you can hold. WOW!!
1008. Crisis57 8:04 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
A note from the Miami-Dade department of emergency management:

The NWS Miami Forecast Office has advised that we may have sustained winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph tonight and continuing most of tomorrow. We have been advised by Miami-Dade Transit Agency that Metrorail and the buses will continue to operate as long as sustained winds remain below 40 mph. The Port of Miami is at Port Condition Whisky with no restrictions at this time other than a warning to mariners that the drawbridges may be locked down (Note that Wednesday is not a cruise day at the Port). Miami International Airport is at normal operations at this time but anticipate delays for flights from Haiti and the Dominican Republic.


I understand that the winds today in Dade County are not from Noel.

the track of this storm is about as confusing as how to pronounce it.
1019. NEwxguy
1015. Floodman 8:06 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
1011. NRAamy 3:04 PM CDT on October 30, 2007
Flood...well, I think some snow can be fun....hope you get some this year...

:)



Thank you, Amy...I love the stuff myself

Im sure this winter I'll have more than a enough to send all of you some snow.
Ok another gust here...29mph
I'm trying to figure out why the models show a sharp northeasterly turn, when there is a big old high on top of Noel (if thats what I'm understanding).
Im traveling to clearwater tomorrow --am i okay??
Phil Ferro is a dolt. reads the NHC copy verbatim. Don Noe just stated that track was from 1030am and he thought it would change at 5pm to cover Florida.

Channel 7 showed surf and seaweed coming over seawall on A1A FT LAUD BEACH
the winds in Marathon are a solid 25 knots right now
Great entry. I think your forecast is right on the money! :)
I live in the Orlando area. From what I can see from the computer models it appears the eye will never touch Florida. So I can expect maybe some light rain and light wind at worst?
1027. Drakoen
I still think it could go to the north. Before it gets caught under that high pressure ridge there is still a trough to the north you can see it on the water vapor loop.
I dont understand, it looks to me like it can only go west or east. There is a huge high pressure ridge coming down on top of it? How is it gonna go North Northeast or anywhere?
Ok, let me get this right... Read the 2pm again... They don't mention ANYTHING about the COC moving off S coast of Cuba... just says N coast... so if it DOES move off the S Coast, what are they going to say then???
1030. nash28
WPB- The models have been just awful. Don't know why..
Phil Ferro is a dolt. reads the NHC copy verbatim. Don Noe just stated that track was from 1030am and he thought it would change at 5pm to cover Florida.

Channel 7 showed surf and seaweed coming over seawall on A1A FT LAUD BEACH


Gotta love the press.
Flood, I moved from there a couple years ago we actually had measurable snowfall each of the two years we were there. Everything closed when it snowed. Being from Utah I couldn't figure out what the big deal was until someone told me the problem was that the cities don't have the trucks and materials available to clear the roads.
winds sustained here at 52 mph
hello all. I am in palm bay,florida which is just south of melbourne. i just had a huge wind gust that lasted about a minute and blew out part of my screens on my pool enclosure!! Must of been some gust.
Dade country public schools for right noew is open on wensday but thursday may still be open.

Just wondering if it emrges later than expect would that mean a greater chance of it heading florida?
1029. IceSlater 3:10 PM CDT on October 30, 2007
Ok, let me get this right... Read the 2pm again... They don't mention ANYTHING about the COC moving off S coast of Cuba... just says N coast... so if it DOES move off the S Coast, what are they going to say then???



Ooops
1013. socaltexan 8:05 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
i just moved from the dfw area and the three years that i lived up there it snowed 2 times. from what i've been told, dfw gets ice. the snow that we got didn't, and can't compair to MO.


Well, I've lived in DFW for 47 years, so I can say that sometimes it snows, often it sleets or dumps ice/freezing rain. It all depends on the source of the precipitation. If we have a cold front at the surface overridden by upper level Gulf moisture, the upper levels tend to be too warm for snow, so we get ice or freezing rain -- it's so much fun!!!!! LOL! If the upper levels are cooler, especially if it's Pacific moisture, we tend to get snow.
Yeah but is anybody predicting this storm Noel to make landfall anywhere in Florida?
Im sure this winter I'll have more than a enough to send all of you some snow.


Send away, NEwxguy!
1040. Bonedog
Geek 52mph sustained? but you just said you had a gust to 31?
sorry 25 not 52
1043. hahaguy
my winds are sustained at 25mph in port st lucie
AT 3:53 mELBOURNE HAD GUST OF 37 MPH
sorry 25 not 52

thats a big difference
lol Hurricane you scared me a bit. Winds sustained here about 28mph gusting to 35-45 depending on the gust.
Sorry Bonedog. I ment 25mph. Can't type.
Noel is still chugging along and is actually pulling alot of cover with it now. Will clear Cuba in 6 hours if not sooner...

sorry 25 not 52
thats a big difference
--------
Sorry, i said mistake. just a typo. LOL
Mostly likely Florida will move slightly back into the cone but very little like 1/50 of the cone.
1051. Bonedog
LOl Gotcha Geek. No harm no foul :)
So I take it nobody is saying it will make landfall in Florida? That is good to hear.
1053. Hhunter
hurricane geek where are you?
Mostly likely Florida will move slightly back into the cone but very little like 1/50 of the cone.
------
I was thinking more like 1/49.LOL
But hey cone is cone.
1056. NEwxguy
1049. HurricaneGeek 8:18 PM GMT on October 30, 2007

sorry 25 not 52
thats a big difference
--------
Sorry, i said mistake. just a typo. LOL

Just tell them you had one of the rain bands come through.
1057. nash28
Weatherbyrd- It may not get to FL. Not with the ridge in place.
Since Noel is moving more W, I'm sure the NHC will prob. shift the cone further East. lol
1032. CatastrophicDL 3:12 PM CDT on October 30, 2007
Flood, I moved from there a couple years ago we actually had measurable snowfall each of the two years we were there. Everything closed when it snowed. Being from Utah I couldn't figure out what the big deal was until someone told me the problem was that the cities don't have the trucks and materials available to clear the roads.



I was in San Antonio when it snowed in '84(?)...my rig was the only vehicle moving on the roads...I was in Little Rock in the mid 90s for a snow/ice event, and I thought the weather guys were going to have heart attacks (they were using words like catastrophe)...just depends on where you are, I guess. Having been in a number of tornados, three or four good white outs, and on the ground in Minot ND when the temp outside was a balmy -41, nothing really phases me. In fact, I like the cold better...like grandad used to say, you can always put on another sweater, but once you're down to skin, that's it!
HHUunter. west palm/ Lake worth.
If you are not from here you probley know west palm better.
lol 52......my sustained is 26 mph ENE with 32 mph gusts
Afternoon all ☺

Dr M has a new blog up.
Byrd we as the NHC are optimistic we believe the NHC should move their track a lil to the west but who knows what they could be thinking. All I know is guys the cone is not going have a dramatic change maybe 10-20 miles to the west.
Since Noel is moving more W, I'm sure the NHC will prob. shift the cone further East. lol

lol They know the wunderbloggers think it should be shifted west so they shift it east
1066. Bonedog
off topic alert

anyone hear that the US Navy helped a North Korean freighter fight off pirates?


Link

shows the integrety of the Navy. Even though we have no diplomatic relation with North Korea they still answered the distress call and aided the men abaord and are no currently treating the wounded onboard the US Navy ship.

ok back to Noel
1012. vortfix 4:04 PM EDT on October 30, 2007
TampaSpin.......AT 250 HPA TWO HIGH CENTERS ARE ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN...ONE
EAST OF BELIZE/YUCATAN AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. BETWEEN
THESE TWO ANTICYCLONES...THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE NEAR THE CENTER OF TS NOEL...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EAST OF JAMAICA.
From the HPC Carib discussion.


That weakness is very high for strong storms. How will this storm feel the weakness that high?
so fa 37mph is the highest. here i recored just at my house.
Dr. Masters has a new blog entry, for those who are just following this thread :)
I wonder if the NHC is having trouble. Do they check the blog to see what we think.....UH OH!!! LOL
bye old post
if you want a good radar, go to the hurricane center website and pull up the radar.
978. IceSlater 7:50 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Why does Vivian Brown on TWC say "right now WE aren't putting any watches up for FL yet, but WE'RE watching it to see if WE have to change that"... She doesn't do anything, how funny. Talking like she's the NHC... Keeps saying WE pertaining to the NHC info.



Maybe she means "we the people". Speaking through our designated voice.
Flood, it is always interesting to be in areas where you have weather experience others don't. I was in Salt Lake City during the 99 tornado. I looked out my window, saw the color of the sky and a large piece of a tree fly by and told everyone to get away from the windows there was a tornado coming. I hadn't even seen it yet, but being on the 14th floor and seeing a huge chunck of tree, plus having been in a few, you just know. No one believed me and a minute and a half later sure enough it went right by our building.
Tropical Storm Warning:
A warning that sustained winds within the range of 34 to 63 kt (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less.


Tropical Storm Watch:
An announcement for specific coastal areas that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

Hey. People. NHC is unlikely to issue either of these for a storm IF THE CRITERION HAS NOT BEEN MET!!!

I strongly believe the reason why NHC has not posted watches is because they don't expect tropical storm conditions to affect Florida before Thursday morning at the earliest. When they think the storm could potentially hit the FL coast in 36 hours or less, they will post a warning.

Sheesh.
1059. Floodman 8:20 PM GMT on October 30, 2007

I was in San Antonio when it snowed in '84(?).


I was in Austin during that snow event, and talk about a shock -- a foot of snow in Central Texas!!! I had tire chains that were a gift from my grandmother, sitting in the trunk, so I was one of the few who could get around the hills of West Austin.
1027. Drakoen 4:10 PM EDT on October 30, 2007
I still think it could go to the north. Before it gets caught under that high pressure ridge there is still a trough to the north you can see it on the water vapor loop.


Drak, is this trough u are talking about around 30N? I'm asking because Beell earlier today was talking about a weakness that might cause Noel to curve around the high.
5 p. m. advisory is out.
Just updated!

WTNT31 KNHC 302037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL STILL CENTERED INLAND OVER CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 280
MILES...450 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CUBA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA
1074. CatastrophicDL 3:29 PM CDT on October 30, 2007
Flood, it is always interesting to be in areas where you have weather experience others don't. I was in Salt Lake City during the 99 tornado. I looked out my window, saw the color of the sky and a large piece of a tree fly by and told everyone to get away from the windows there was a tornado coming. I hadn't even seen it yet, but being on the 14th floor and seeing a huge chunck of tree, plus having been in a few, you just know. No one believed me and a minute and a half later sure enough it went right by our building.



Well, I always was one to stick my head out the window to see which way the wind was blowing LOL