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Noel dumping torrential rains on the Dominican Republic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:28 PM GMT on October 29, 2007

Tropical Storm Noel hit Haiti this morning just south of the capital of Port-Au-Prince, dumping prodigious rains of over one inch per hour over some regions of the island of Hispaniola. The storm's slow forward speed means that heavy rains will affect the island for several more days. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows heavy rains affecting the Dominican Republic. These rains have already exceeded eight inches over a wide area of ocean to the east of Noel's center, according to rainfall estimates from the Puerto Rico radar. Rainfall amounts of 4-7 inches over southern Puerto Rico have triggered numerous flash floods and landslides.

This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of about 50 mph over a small region north of Hispaniola. Wind and storm surge damage should be minimal on Hispaniola from Noel.

The Dominican Republic
The worst of the rains for Puerto Rico are now over, but the flooding situation on Hispaniola today will be extremely serious, particularly in the Dominican Republic. Satellite loops show very vigorous thunderstorms reaching high into the atmosphere roiling over Hispaniola. Early this morning, these thunderstorms dumped about 150 mm (6 inches) of rain in just six hours in a region southwest of the capital of the Dominican Republic, Santo Domingo (Figure 1). Santo Domingo reported a visibility of zero at 2am local time during this heavy rain. Rainfall amount of about 12 inches have fallen over the Dominican Republic's southernmost point, the Barahona Peninsula, according to satellite estimates. The region's only airport weather station stopped transmitting data at 8pm last night.

Haiti
So far, Haiti has escaped the worst of Noel's heavy rains, giving hope that a repeat of the floods triggered by Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 might be avoided. Jeanne passed just north of Haiti as a tropical storm, and dumped about 13 inches of rain over the northern mountains. The resulting floods killed over 3,000 people. However, satellite images show that a large region of disturbed weather to the southeast of Hispaniola associated with Noel, and Noel's counter-clockwise circulation will pull heavy rains over Hispaniola for the next two days. I still expect that some regions of Haiti will receive over 12 inches of rain from Noel.


Figure 1. Satellite estimates of rain for the 6-hour period ending at 5 am EDT Monday, 10/29/07. Note the red "bulls-eye" at upper right of the image over Hispaniola, indicating heavy rain of about 150 mm (6 inches) fell in just six hours. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The track forecast
Passage over the rugged terrain of Haiti has severely disrupted Noel, and satellite imagery suggests that the center of the storm is now trying to reform just north of Hispaniola. The latest computer model runs from 00Z and 06Z this morning continue to show a wide range of solutions for Noel's path. All of the models forecast that Noel's current north-northwest motion will continue today, in response to the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper level low to the west of Noel. This upper low is forecast to weaken over the next few days, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in, which will force Noel to the northwest or west-northwest. The GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF models all take Noel through the Bahamas, to the north of Cuba. The UKMET and ECMWF take Noel to the south of Cuba, close to its coast. This is unlikely, since Noel's center is trying to reform to the north of Hispaniola. The key question is the timing and strength of a trough of low pressure forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast Thursday. A slower arrival of this trough will allow Noel to penetrate farther west into the western Bahamas. The NOGAPS and GFS models foresee that Noel will reach a point between 100-300 miles east of South Florida before recurving out to sea. The HWRF and GFDL recurve Noel much further to the east. The GFDL doesn't take Noel very far west at all, predicting that the storm will graze the eastern Bahamas, then accelerate to the northeast and threaten Bermuda as a strong tropical storm on Friday. Given that Noel appears to be taking a big jump to the north and reforming north of Haiti this morning, I would expect that the official NHC forecast is the correct one, and Noel will recurve before reaching the western Bahamas.

The intensity forecast
Noel's intensity will be controlled by its interaction with the land masses of Hispaniola and Cuba over the next day. Passage over the mountainous terrain of Haiti has severely disrupted Noel, and any intensification over the next day should be slow. Wind shear is about 10-20 knots today, and is expected to remain in that range over the next two days. This will allow some slow strengthening of Noel if its center can remain over water. I give Noel a 40% chance of reaching hurricane strength at some point. After two days, wind shear is expected to increase above 20 knots, and Noel should weaken.

I'll have an update late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Ummm...maybe I'm confused, but if the track isn't updated at 2PM why does the track image say 2PM? Also, the 11AM discussion says the coordinates are 19.9N 73W, the track image I'm looking at definitely doesn't show the center at that location. Appears to be the 20.5N 73.8W thats in the 2PM advisory.
498. TampaSpin
Wouldn't the BAMS be a good track of the BAM models now


Yup..
493. seflagamma 6:26 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
but those update models are from 8am this morning run and from a center that is not where it is now... doesn't that make a difference when the center was moved a little to the west?


yes it does. This model run are just something to look at. We are waiting for the 18z and 00z runs to get better solutions on the system.
if you live in fla you may want to watch this its from last night but it looks like it comming into play now very interesting

Link
BAMS is a very good model to use in this situation. We have a weak and shallow storm, which is being influenced by steering in the lower levels (700-850mb). This is where the BAMS comes in.
Good afternoon folks.

Nature continues to throw curveballs this hurricane season. As I said earlier, I started to see a westward motion at around 10 AM. This will certainly throw a wrench into the forecast track.

Starting to come back together again after going over Haiti. If this does hit South Florida, I want all the rain to go to the lake. This storm could actually help more than it will hurt.
The NHC Track doesn't change at 2pm, like others said... The reason it says 2pm on the map is because the coordinates, winds, etc, are updated. That is it...

Also, the new GFDL is out.. takes it further WEST before a curve, also shows a Cat 1/2 storm!
According to this if the system approaches florida if it ever does conditions dont look that favorable.

Great job on the Cuban radar.
514. 0741
i going update my blog with miami disussion
Well the BAMS does not paint a pretty pic for S. Florida....ouch.
the system could establish an upper level high over head. Most of the computer model deepen the system with time.
12z GFDL!

HERE IT IS
45mph sfmr

18:32:30Z 20.42N 73.67W 983.4 mb
(~ 29.04 inHg) 176 meters
(~ 577 feet) 1003.4 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg) - From 166° at 33 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 37.9 mph) 22.9°C
(~ 73.2°F) 22.9°C
(~ 73.2°F) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph)
HouseofGryffindor 6:33 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Link to the GDFL???



every model now shows this going over south fla or very clos you be the judge and yes the gfdl is going further west now
going right up the slot toward Florida-good thing the environment is not conducive to rapid development. Lots of rain and beach erosion. Interesting to see where the curve takes place-what if it doesn't? GOM?
WOW - New GFDL is a CLOSE CALL for FL!
the models are delayed by 6 hours judging by the position of the low level center. That would nudge the track further west. Its suppose to be where it is now at 8:00pm tonight.
507. HouseofGryffindor 2:31 PM EDT on October 29, 2007 Hide this comment.
Noel has gotten my attention. I think it will be a close call with Florida. With a broad circulation, even the west coast will feel the effects.


In our area house, a close brush with Miami would equal winds of about 35 mph...especially if the higher wind remained outside of the coc
Hey Ice GFDL is not off the mark in 12 hours but guess what! 5 Hours later its already there!
ok let do some math unless he slows down he can reach Florida in less then 36 hrs

he is about 500 miles SE of Miami moving nw at 15 500/15 = 33 hrs

When I look at Noel it really don't look like much. Or am I missing something. I know the rain is bad,but it not all that symetrical. I am not a downcaster can someone just show me some images so I can see. I haven't been able to be on that much this morning or day.
CA
2:00 Pm model init. New BAMS should be on plots soon.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.5N LONCUR = 73.8W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 72.3W DIRM12 = 340DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 71.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 175NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

lennit 6:41 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
ok let do some math unless he slows down he can reach Florida in less then 36 hrs

he is about 500 miles SE of Miami moving nw at 15 500/15 = 33 hrs


watches are at 36 hours before right so we might see them go up at 5 pm then or they will prob. wait for the last min to create a panic mode lol
NHC has been down the middle of the guidance with GFDL respectively to the east. Now that the GFDL has shifted more in line with the rest of the model guidance I would expect the NHC track to be between the GFDL and the GFS as your east/west outliers.
529. StormW 6:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Did I do OK on my forecast as far as predicitng the track cahnge?

yes you did good.
I think it's very ironic if not outrageous that State Farm sponsors the tropical satellite maps on this site when they are in the process of cancelling policies on everyone in Florida within 1-2 miles of the coast. Shame on you WU and State Farm both!
BAMM AND BAMD 18z wanna take it out to see. BAMS has it in Cuba.
Okay,

I live in S. FL, do I need to stock up on water, gas or what? Is Knoll being a 2007 storm which translates as I know what the models say, but I did it my way.

StormW 6:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Did I do OK on my forecast as far as predicitng the track change?
Action: | Ignore User

yes stromw good call there but do you think noel will stall just south of fla and get a bit stronger being the front might not catch him in time thanks again
1002 mb pressures found
540. IKE
NoNamePub 1:39 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
WOW - New GFDL is a CLOSE CALL for FL!


It's still nearly 200 miles east of Florida at its further point west.
It is never a bad idea to have gas and water in the house. Models can and will change. It is important in south east Florida to always be prepared.
506. jphurricane2006 6:31 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Noel may actually make landfall in Cuba



...yeah, Jp, I've agreed that the sw'ly flow was going to have a more westerly influence over the track all morning.
I Completely DO NOT Buy This... (CMC 72Hr)

527. catastropheadjuster 1:42 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
When I look at Noel it really don't look like much. Or am I missing something. I know the rain is bad,but it not all that symetrical. I am not a downcaster can someone just show me some images so I can see. I haven't been able to be on that much this morning or day.
CA



he passed over Haiti/DR overnight...give him some time to re-organize, huh?
RECON has found the Center..With Maxium Winds 6 Miles NE from the Center!

COC:
20.77N 73.93W
1002.4 mb(~ 29.60 inHg)

Maxium Winds: 6 Miles from center!
20.83N 74.00W
43.8 knots (~ 50.4 mph)
Stormw can you give your blog.
I am in Plantation...I will be gassing up today..getting things so I wont have to travel in bad weather. I'd have flashlights and batteries on hand. But when it comes to h2o...go get a 5 gal container to always have on hand.

I lost power for 6 days after WILMA. I needed ice more than water. I had tons of water and the tap always worked. ont waste money on store bought water
even though the BAM models don't take it into Florida they are on the left side of the NHC track. Now we can see how the more reliable models will respond.
Looks out to sea to me on the sketo map i posted....I expect no real significant change on the NHC track at 5 really.Maybe a slight bend to west but again thats the forcast which iam not sure some of you realize that its really suppose to come NW a bit before being shot like a rocket of to the NE.
Good afternoon all, For those wondering i will have a blog update at the next full advisory on Noel (Around 5:00 PM). I notice the track has shifted to the west a tad bit and i expect this trend to continue as i personally feel Noel will come close, or hug the east coast of Florida. Based on the way it has sped up and is ahead of scheldule i hate to say it but i think its possible it will beat the trough to Florida's coast...
545. weathersp 1:53 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
RECON has found the Center..With Maxium Winds 6 Miles NE from the Center!

COC:
20.77N 73.93W
1002.4 mb(~ 29.60 inHg)

Maxium Winds: 6 Miles from center!
20.83N 74.00W
43.8 knots (~ 50.4 mph)




So, tropical, AND moderate strength...a little organization...
I also think it is possible that Noel will relocate its circulation once again to trick the NHC. I believe Noel will at SOME point become a hurricane...that is if it gets its act together again.
554. 0741
my blog is updated with lastest miami forecast disussion Link
hurrican23...righto, pretty much due north, and then out to sea.
WOW - New GFDL is a CLOSE CALL for FL!


Come on. Not *that* close. If this storm even misses SE Florida by 100 miles to the east, it won't do much to FL at all. Nothing like if was passing 100 miles to the west of the SW coast of FL. East side of a TS so much worse than the west side as far as rain and wind. For instance, it's still pouring in San Juan, but sun is out in Gitmo. Who's closer to the center? Nuff said.
545. weathersp 6:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
RECON has found the Center..With Maxium Winds 6 Miles NE from the Center!

COC:
20.77N 73.93W
1002.4 mb(~ 29.60 inHg)

Maxium Winds: 6 Miles from center!
20.83N 74.00W
43.8 knots (~ 50.4 mph)


ok its tropical with a broad wind field.
is there a consensus? Will Noel hit Florida?

sorry, but y'all have me confused...
Recon has found several flight level winds to support an increased intensity to 50mph
slow becoming better organized.

Had to leave again for a few guys...

Anything new?
563. IKE
NRAamy 1:57 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
is there a consensus? Will Noel hit Florida?

sorry, but y'all have me confused...


Odds are it won't...but nothing is written in stone unless you're STORMKAT.
I agree drak....looks a little better. Once it gets more convection near the center it may begin to strengthen again
MAJOR changes on the 1800 BAMM runs

Link
thanks IKE....

:)
558. NRAamy 6:57 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
is there a consensus? Will Noel hit Florida?


At this time Florida is not in the path of Noel but the track has however shifted further west and if ti keeps speeding up like it is it may beat the trough expected to kick it out to sea and may possibly make landfall in Florida. Its one possibility of many...
562. nash28 2:59 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
Had to leave again for a few guys...

Anything new?

Look up at the sketobite models i posted above in the blog.
529. StormW 2:44 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
Did I do OK on my forecast as far as predicitng the track change?


Storm in watching the Cuba radar loop I believe your 300/15 movement is a whole lot closer to real life than a NW/12 course. I think you nailed it very well.IMHO
570. IKE
Observed at: Guantanamo Bay NAS, CU
Elevation: 56 ft
[Mostly Cloudy]
85 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 67%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the North
Pressure: 29.71 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 91 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 6 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 3000 ft
Scattered Clouds 10000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 22000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Barry was the only TS to make a landfall in 2007 so far.... and will probably be the only one to make FL landfall come end of season.
I think it's very ironic if not outrageous that State Farm sponsors the tropical satellite maps on this site when they are in the process of cancelling policies on everyone in Florida within 1-2 miles of the coast. Shame on you WU and State Farm both!

That's a rather simplistic way of looking at insurance in FL. That lack of education and reasoning is why it will be socialized over the next few years. Too many people think that way.

Okay, back to Noel.
574. 0741
there a consensus? Will Noel hit Florida?

sorry, but y'all have me confused : it still to early to know
The system has been moving near 300 (wnw).
Just checked them Adrian...

I think we are in for more of a WWD component than the models show there, IMHO. It still may very well get booted off to the NE in time, but I have a feeling it will be alot closer to you than those models show.
Interesting that all the BAM models is well West of the NHC forcast track....

581. IKE
From Accuweather....

on Knoll/Nol/Noll/Noel....

"After the next 24 hours, Noel will continue on a general northwest motion through the western Bahamas and toward southeastern Florida. We are anticipating an upper-level trough to move across the Southeast states on Wednesday. This trough should help steer Noel to the northeast and away from the Southeast states. However, gusty winds and rough surf will be felt along the Southeast coast from Florida to North and South Carolina as Noel passes to the east."
StormW- Wanted to make a point in that it appears the flow that Noel is in will empart more of a WNW component here.
I see the models are all shifting to the west...
578. HouseofGryffindor 2:06 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
I hope Florida's property insurance is "socialized" in the next few years. It already is for the most part.



Florida Citizens: (n)def: 1. Twice the premium for half the coverage 2.(v) Slow paying 3.(adj) Archaic and out of touch
(See Louisiana Citizens)
So does THIS make the NHC the eastern outlier?

:-)
thank you Storm!

:)
as a floridian I am a little upset that the media and nhc is not being more careful with this one...if they don't change their tune at 5 alot of people won't know anything til tommorrow a.m..not a lot of time to prepare imo.
one thing that has not changed, torrential rains continue in the Dominican Republic..... with no sins of letting up anytime soon!

I suspect the death toll here will rise significantly!
They have just come west a tad folks but in general its still to sea per these model runs.
noel closes approach will be just east of hole in the wall north central bahamas as a TS hati/dom pretty well destroy any stronger organize convection now wait till d max to see what kind of reorganization if any occurs
581. IKE 7:09 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
From Accuweather....

on Knoll/Nol/Noll/Noel....

"After the next 24 hours, Noel will continue on a general northwest motion through the western Bahamas and toward southeastern Florida. We are anticipating an upper-level trough to move across the Southeast states on Wednesday. This trough should help steer Noel to the northeast and away from the Southeast states. However, gusty winds and rough surf will be felt along the Southeast coast from Florida to North and South Carolina as Noel passes to the east."


I saw that, They dont seem to convinced that Noel will turn NE before touching the East coast...
573. Canesinlowplaces 3:03 PM EDT on October 29, 2007 Hide this comment.
I think it's very ironic if not outrageous that State Farm sponsors the tropical satellite maps on this site when they are in the process of cancelling policies on everyone in Florida within 1-2 miles of the coast. Shame on you WU and State Farm both!


That's a rather simplistic way of looking at insurance in FL. That lack of education and reasoning is why it will be socialized over the next few years. Too many people think that way.


Most insurance companies have stockholders who vote the management out if the fail to make money for them. I guess they (stockholders)got upset by the losses caused by the recent storm damage in the gulf states. When the fire burns your hand you usually pull it back. Its a vicious circle. I sure wouldn't want to invest in an insurance company.
and citizens is not even government. look at the nfip flood policies. limited coverage and lots of exclusions. socializing wind coverage would be a major mistake!! What needs to be done is not let the insurance carriers seperate florida from the rest of there companies to show losses.
Guys, take the insurance chat somewhere else.

It's a real beating to have to scroll through.
FL insurance problem started years ago when Lawton Chiles allowed State Farm and Allstate to creat State Farm Florida and Allstate Florida.

Instead of spreading losses out nationally, State Farm Floirda could now come, hat in hand, claiming poorhouse and asking for rate increases.

It's a fiction that has harmed us Floridians.
Back to Noel...
602. A4Guy
The trcks just keep shifting west!
Soon, Noel will be tracking to Mexico (lol).

Link

Seriously though, the NHC track seems to have slowed in the later periods, indicating that the front may not be as vigorous as initially thought. Yesterday, Noel was supposed to be near the latitude of Bermuda by 8 a.m. Sat, but now, he's at the latitude of SC by 8 p.m. Sat.
back to weather run this slow

Link
605. 0741
MAJOR changes on the 1800 BAMM runs

what is it i donot see any major change? by the way nhc donot use bamm that i know off
Nash, sorry for the aggravation. I just have several friends in that industry.
558. NRAamy 2:57 PM AST on October 29, 2007
is there a consensus? Will Noel hit Florida?

sorry, but y'all have me confused...



LOL!!! Amy, my friend, so cute. You in California, now have a "vested" interest in SE Fla!!!!! Got to keep MP safe! LOL
Nash....I could always bring Felix back.....

;)

Well, that's THE player here in this scenario... If the shortwave washes out or is not strong enough to erode a good portion of the periphery on that mid level ridge, then all bets are off. There would be nothing else to kick it NEWD until another front makes it across.
605. 0741 7:17 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
MAJOR changes on the 1800 BAMM runs

what is it i donot see any major change? by the way nhc donot use bamm that i know off


nhc uses about all models including the BAMM, however more some than others
Gamma....you are correct!!!!

:)

Noel seems to be trying to Reform a New Center
and Put Itself Back Together.

Watch For The Models To Make a Major Track
Adjustment Late Tonight. (LOL)

I Give Less Than 2% Chance of It Affecting
South Florida and The 2% is only Because What
The CMC and No Gaps is showing.

The Models Will Not Be accurate or of Much
Forecast Help until a Distinct Center Reforms
so we should Know Something More Conclusive
Tonight at 00Z Maybe.


616. IKE
12Z ECMWF....Link
Sorry Nash and everyone else. Back to Noel.
ECMWF just of south florida.

Weak.
Floodman: Thanks for acknowleding my question. I was just wondering. I see things are changing and looking like it might get a little closer to Florida than they thought.
CA
Does anyone have a current link for water temps around Noel?
Looks like we're working on a concensus looking at the 12Z ECMWF Ike. Or at least they can shrink the cone of doom considerably.
yep the ECMWF has probably delayed the trough enough for the system get get west to affect south Florida.
Again, with the exception of the BAM models, all of these were initialized at 8am this morning, which was WELL BEFORE the COC really jumped. Throw 'em out. Starting at 18z (which is currently running on the globals) then they'll have initialization points correct.

So, the 12z ECMWF is also wrong. Wait for 00z.
LOL, Tampa!! I said that last nite *laffs*
there is nothing to get excited about yet!! you would think we have a major hurricane on our door step. when the nhc adjust there track and puts florida in the path then the media will do there job and probably over play it. Let`s not kill the media for a storm that the chances of hitting florida are less than it missing.
Does anyone think E FL will be in the cone of error come 5pm?
624. CatastrophicDL 3:23 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
Does anyone have a current link for water temps around Noel?

knock yourself out navigate to the bottom of the page.
I don't see how they couldn't HG.
Watch out guys the track may switch 100 miles to the west it is moving NW and the forcast track coinciding with the center is not accurate. Therefore unless they find a new center more eastward. Florida could go back in the cone slightly.
eastern most portions of Florida could be in the forecast cone.
638. 0741
i agree about the south FL media...WPLG did bring Max Mayfield last night, but Megan Glaros was pooh-poohing things at noon; talking about trick-or-treating.

It was worse on NBC, Trini Robinson basically gave the all clear.

I expect to see Bryan Norcross on WFOR at 5pm. and the newspapers are no better. links to NHC maps that would give someone a false sense of security.

then we have to deal with the "it's-only-a-TS" stuff. as if driving in 60mph winds is much better than 75mph? ugh. sadly there is no one in charge in South FL. and I think Gov Crist is in Brazil i live south fl i miss news because inlaw want take me/wife out for lunch round noon
Again, the 12z runs don't mean squat to me. 18z and beyond (as long as the COC doesn't shift AGAIN!!!) will be where things begin to come together.
ok TCW thanks for the opinion

InfraRed Loop Tropical Storm NOEL

Link
H23 Thanks! That one is way easier to read than the one I have been using!
i love this model site. really lets you see what goes into these models.

Link
Adrian, thanks for the link. Looks like most of Noel is over 84o water temps. There's a lot of energy in that water.
No problem feel free to use it.
Question why no signs of Strenghtening on the computer models if over water???
InfraRed Loop Tropical Storm NOEL

Link
Good one, Pat!
Well, the GFDL still continues to go bat s$#! with intensity, and has been overdoing it since it was 90L:-)
No convection for starters
655. 0741
jp do you see major change on bamm??
The environment will not be the best for any kind of significant intensification as it approaches the florida coast.
660. 0741
ok shear is our friend here. so we wont see it getting any strong because of shear????
So yall thinking a Florida hit is more possible?
Nope. Shear should keep this system in check.

Personally, a 45mph wet TS crossing FL, or at least getting close enough to bring good soaking rains to most of the central and southern half of the peninsula is fine by me:-)
Niiiiiiiiiice, Rare...thanks
A new lil Burst of convection on the north side of the center..Motion still Nnw.

Floater IR Loop
Link
666. 0741
658. TropicalNonsense your pic donot show up
Center fix.
OKay Jim...
Thanks Rare!
665. jphurricane2006 3:35 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
Noel is not moving NNW, not even close

its WNW and maybe even due West



Yep looks like the BAMS
48hr GFS shear forcast...More Here

673. 0741
wnw vs nnw ?????
Floater Visible Loop

Link
Isn't the decreasing shear moving with the storm NW?
Noel movement WNW
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message
ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...
SURGING NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT AT MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH SO
HAVE GALE WARNING UP N OF FRONT THROUGH TUE. BY THEN TS NOEL
WILL BE IN CENTRAL BAHAMAS MERGING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TRICKING WARNING HEADLINES TO EXPLAIN GALE WARNING MERGING

Plenty of effects even on the weak side. A mess. Super double overhead power chop that may only clean up if it goes up off the coast and has a good enough circulation on the backside for some offshore winds.
noel looks like hes trying to back a comback look at the huge area this thing is taken up .

and looks a little bit west of the forcast points dmax tonight might be a big change for noel when is the next plane going in
If this system is moving at around 300 degrees, then that is WNW. It was at 335 earlier this morning, but I thought I saw 300 this afternoon....
Hopefully the NHC gets a handle on it soon. I have family flying in to West Palm on Wedensday. Running out of time to delay the trip. I am supposed to make the call tonight.

I am torn on what to tell them. Obviously just a TS is not bad to me but, it would be problematic to my grandparents.
why is Noel moving faster he's moving at 15mph now. Is this because of the front/trough thats going to move him out to sea?
so do you think to forcast tract could shift some to the west?
Trough is Getting The Squeeze Play.
Wait and See I Guess as Always.

HH have finished a penetration...data in Skyeponys Blog.
687. A4Guy
Water Vapor looks like NW motion to me...not WNW. Haven't looked a vis in a while.

Small difference, but important.
Well, if StormW is correct, then forget what I said...

That would be just about due west...
Looks wnw movement. left of forecast points.
691. 0741
ok let take poll how many say WEST NORTH WEST OR JOIN NHC SAY NORTH WEST??????
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 19:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 16
Storm Name: Noel (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 14

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Monday, 19:28Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 20.7N 73.3W (View map)
Location: 149 miles (240 km) to the WSW (249) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 760 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 140 at 31 knots (From the SE at ~ 35.6 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 20C
Flight Level Dew Point: 20C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
925 mb Surface Altitude: 726 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 140 at 30 knots (From the SE at ~ 34.5 mph)

Remarks: SWS 033KTS

Remarks: LAST REPORT
Then again guys, we've seen countless times this season systems move off of the forecast points for several hours, but the eventual track always smooths out.

Wait and see...
I don't know about due west. I say west north west.
Thats big if it keeps this speed it won't matter when the cold front comes its gonna affect forida.
Yea just looked at close visibles and its really looking WNW now.
Also, we're really not talking about a huge difference between 280 and 300 degrees here...

Especially with a system so large.
About to enter tip of Cuba.
So what has caused the forward speed to change in Noel?
Ya but the 5pm point is off the forcast track.
Am new to this but i see clouds moving north from Haiti trying to wrap around the center
The farther south Noel is the better the upper level enviroment is for strengthening...too far north and the westerlies effect it
Agree Nash but, when your riding the coast of Cuba, it makes a bit more of a difference.
705. 0741
do that great inagua in bahamas have weather station their near center????
Land interaction may also hold back intensification.Its really to have to stay just offshore.
Noel is speeding up in response to the mid level ridging, which is now guiding this system and not the ULL from yesterday.
Thanks to everyone for sharing their knowledge. I am still learning! I am wondering how, if at all, sheer affects the direction Noel may take?
About to enter tip of Cuba.

This ridging is also playing a big role. Stronger ridging against the shortwave trough...

Who wins? We'll see.
StormW: in your opinion, what does all the change in movement mean for Miami?
Recon may be leaving Noel...there rising in altitude
well 5 pm advisory in 1 hr all.
236- I think we are ALL rising in altitude with the excitement of this system!

LOL!
D-Max should refuel NOEL by tomorrow morning.
716. 0741
can some one put dot were center is on sat pic??? i cannot find center on sat pic.
the center is east of Baracoa, Cuba
Here is were i believe the LLC is or alteast very close.

looking at skyponeys link noel looks like it going to go north of cuba and is further west than the nhc fcast plots check it out wnw
Yep, that's it Drak.
714. nash28 7:50 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
236- I think we are ALL rising in altitude with the excitement of this system!

LOL!


LOL
716. 0741 3:50 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
can some one put dot were center is on sat pic??? i cannot find center on sat pic.



Tip of Cuba
Looks like convection is slowly building a little north of the center.
Yep Adrian i agree. Thats exactly where i see it.
726. 0741
thanks hurr23
Well, Baracoa is at 20.21N 74.30W if anyone is interested..
NHC storm headings are based on a 12 hour average and do not always reflect the Current Storm motion so Remember Hurricane Charley.Anyway the hunters are there and the visible images which now cover about 4 hours suggest further re-organization and the direction hugging the northern coast of Cuba...


725. jphurricane2006 3:53 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
Adrian I think the convection you pointed out is actually a band NE of the center

Notice i said right around that area but iam very close that iam sure off.Its south of the NHC forcast point a bit.
725. jphurricane2006 3:53 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
Adrian I think the convection you pointed out is actually a band NE of the center



He just didn't want to coverup the center...give him a break......lol
Based upon the NHC coordinates and accounting for a some movement from then, the place you put the center at on that map Adrian appears correct
733. 0741
center due south were i see trop fcst pts on sat pic well south
684. Vortex95 2:41 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
so do you think to forcast tract could shift some to the west?



280/15 is far enough off the forecast points to make the actual forecast invalid...to a point. The initialization for the models that the forecast is based on was off, and the turn W (this morning the movement was 300/12) throws all of the forecasts off. We wait and see what the next model runs say, but watch for the forecast track to be more WNW than NW, and look to see less effect by the trof than was initially expected. It may have to make a FL landfall before being pulled back NE...JMHO (plenty of crow on the smoker; what BBQ sauce goes with pecan smoked crow, I wonder)
good call adrian
Looking at the RGB loop, I think JP is right. The center is a little sw of that convection.
okay lets figure out what has happened in the last 6 Hours or so.

1) Trough has Weakened Noticeably.

2) Noel is Spinning Up a New Center Further
South and West of Earlier Projections.

3) Noel is also moving at a Faster Pace
suddenly 12-15 Mph which has me a Bit
Confused I Must Say.

4) Low Level Winds Steering South West and Mid
Level winds Steering More Northerly.

5) Noel is weaker But ahead Of Schedule and
Hence will Be Further Westward In The New
Model Runs.

Forecast is Now 3% To Affect SFlorida as a Cat1
Storm if Shear Continues To Fall and Trough Continues To Weaken.

**** Very Interesting *****

I believe KC Masterpiece goes well with that Flood:-)
Adrian move the L.......lol
that little hole that some of you are seeing just east of Baracoa is not the coc. is further east than that.
Oh brother you guys are to much for real!!!!

I said around that area.The L i placed is indeed very close to were the LLC currently is and as i pointed out its currently a tad south of the NHC forcast point.
You can probably shave about 6 to 12 hours off the timing as well if it smooths out WNW.
Jerry...you missed Felix....
The radar fix is actually south of the NHC forcast point.
737. TropicalNonsense 3:57 PM EDT on October 29, 2007

Great Analysis.....
JFV...you are the most polite blogger I have ever known....

:)
Hmmm -

280/15!!! Wow, if that holds for whaile they're going to need an underwear concession an all the weather offices in Fl. - lol!!

Think it'll hold???
738. nash28 2:58 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
I believe KC Masterpiece goes well with that Flood:-)



I think you're right...something with a little more molasses; sweeter to offset the piquancy of the crow...LOL
just in the hh have found 59 to 62 moh surface winds
You like that SW. I got a chuckle as well.
Looks like Joe B. and StormW is more correct than the NHC IMO.
745. NRAamy 2:59 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
Jerry...you missed Felix....



I'm sorry; I always enjoy Felix' little forays into the blog. I was hoping that the hippo might make an appearance as well LOL
Its south of the point no doupt!But will it continue or most likely the NHC might average it out to a possible WNW movement.
Still trending more westwards than the track?
751. InTheCone 3:01 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
Hmmm -

280/15!!! Wow, if that holds for whaile they're going to need an underwear concession an all the weather offices in Fl. - lol!!

Think it'll hold???



Been in the military? Hurry up and wait, Cone.
The lastest SFMR i saw was about 52-53 kt.
761. 0741
747. StormW 7:59 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Want to see something funny? Go to NHC site and look at the forecast track for 2:00 p.m.
it were nhc put it if i not wrong
Right on the button H23, LLC holding at around 20.5 to 20.7 basically moving west or just slightly N of due west, if it goes over that area it might get torn apart again, then again its moving alot faster, as it it would have to keep just off the N coast of Cuba to maintain strength or intensify or actually move WSW back into the Caribbean, if it stay on a westerly course for more than 12 hours thats probably it as a threat to any land areas.Any thoughts from anyone? This is my opinion only.
Building around the Center.

also they said in our local news hh may relocate the center further west at 5 pm again 59 to 62 mph winds were found
"an underwear concession"???

WHOOSH, over my head....
Thanks Flood!!

Been at it all weekend, what's a bit more !!
LOL StormW!

You guys think Avila will take this discussion?

It will definately get kicked out iam just thinking it may come west then currently forcasted.
Ah, come on Adrian. If you hadn't put that L on there, we wouldn't have had anything to criticize. Actually, after looking a little more, I now think it's right on.
Hurricane hunters have got 1002mb.That's down from 1004 on their first pass.
Amy -

referring to the many accidents that would occur at a radical shift in track !! People may need a quick change - lol!!
Yeah, we were all doing the double take on that NEWD move....
Assuming no Cuban landfall,I see this thing getting up near 60-65mph at it's peak.After this,I think the season's done.
762. stormpetrol 3:05 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
Right on the button H23, LLC holding at around 20.5 to 20.7 basically moving west or just slightly N of due west, if it goes over that area it might get torn apart again, then again its moving alot faster, as it it would have to keep just off the N coast of Cuba to maintain strength or intensify or actually move WSW back into the Caribbean, if it stay on a westerly course for more than 12 hours thats probably it as a threat to any land areas.Any thoughts from anyone? This is my opinion only.



It needs to gain a little more se-paration from the Cuban coast; a WNW track takes it out of harms way, as far as influence from Cuba goes...forward motion is increasing (or has increased). I don;t see a WSW track anytime soon, but maintaining this track would be reasonable, by way of expectation
Current visible satellite indicates the Center of Circulation-CoC, is roughly between Guantanamo,Cuba and Matthew Town, Great Inagua, Bahamas.
Or 20.6N/ 74.0W
768. nash28 8:06 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
LOL StormW!

You guys think Avila will take this discussion?

if he does it might not come any where near Florida LOL.

Anyone notice the lack of vortex messages?
There is a good chance its our wonderful new female NEVERMIND.

Mainelli
nraAMY I missed Felix too!
When did you post him?
Is Mainelli an actual girl?I mean,Stewart's a guy.
766. NRAamy 3:05 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
"an underwear concession"???

WHOOSH, over my head....



LOL
Oh.thanks jp.
The 5PM discussion should be quite interesting.
781. weatherboykris 3:10 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
Is Mainelli an actual girl?I mean,Stewart's a guy.



As opposed to an artificial girl?...LOL
It looks to me like it is going to be quiet a bit farther west than the NHC has it going. Based on my record, that means it will probably follow exactly what the NHC says.
With the WWD track does anyone think Noel can make it to the GOM?
Yes she is iam probably going to see here in a couple of weeks.

Here first name is michelle.



She has here Master's of Science degree in Meteorology from the University of Miami.
766. NRAamy 8:05 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
""an underwear concession"???

WHOOSH, over my head....
"

Never been to a Grateful Dead concert, Amy?

(Just sayin', ...maybe because of Floodman's cool Jerry-style avatar)



788. Floodman 8:13 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
781. weatherboykris 3:10 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
Is Mainelli an actual girl?I mean,Stewart's a guy.



As opposed to an artificial girl?...LOL\

LOL.
I'm wondering if the center is going to stay off shore.
Its starting to interact with the coast of Cuba from what I can see.
795. 0741
Here fist name is michelle ((who she???????))
guygee, no I never saw The Dead....

and NoNamePub, your email to me was ridiculous, so if you missed Felix, too (insert bad word here) bad...
Still with the west thing. Granted its more west but the CoC a mess it is very poorly defined and shear of the cloud tops is adding a lot to make it appear to be more of a westerly component.

Top to bottom, side to side, it looks to be about on track.

A tad west.
Florida - There's a new chapter in hurricane forecasting.

A 35-year-old mother and meteorologist, Michelle Mainelli, is the first woman member of the National Hurricane Center's hurricane forecast team.

Complete Article Here
I predict that at the 5:00 Advisory the NHC will continue with a NNW movement with no change in forecast track - just to piss us off!!!!
12z ECMWF pretty much agrees with the 12z CMC: Noel goes into South Florida, then goes barely east of Cape Cod as a sub-970 mb superstorm.
Tropicalnonsence it will not work!
791. hurricane23 3:14 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
Yes she is iam probably going to see here in a couple of weeks.

Here first name is michelle.



She has here Master's of Science degree in Meteorology from the University of Miami.



Well she doesn't look artificial at all...LOL
801. eaglesrock 3:19 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
12z ECMWF pretty much agrees with the 12z CMC: Noel goes into South Florida, then goes barely east of Cape Cod as a sub-970 mb superstorm.



Where's Bonedog?
center fix
Exactly
I've been seeing a center that is left of the forecast path.
A center correction is needed.
*giggles* My mother's hairdresser is an artificial 'girl'
Flood -

I take it you have some expertise in judging between the two - lol!!!

And if so, I ain't goin' to be askin' bout' no preferences .....
Never followed the Dead, but the few concerts I went to, it seemed like the ones traveling along with the tour had a concession for everything.

Lightning-Skull underwear? Maybe that is what FL mets will be wearing after the changing.
Now THAT'S FUNNY!!!!!

NNW movement with no track change just to piss off those who have been here all day commenting on how the track is gonna change:-)

ROFLMAO!!!! You know what? I wouldn't put it past them:-)
811. guygee 4:23 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
Never followed the Dead, but the few concerts I went to, it seemed like the ones traveling along with the tour had a concession for everything.

Lightning-Skull underwear? Maybe that is what FL mets will be wearing after the changing


PERFECT - lol!!!
It's about 70 miles SW of the forecast point.


So, a little over a degree?
LOCAL NEWS SAID THE HH are finding the center further west this might show at the 5pm update
"Lets REEEEEEEEALLY mess with those bloggers on WU" :))
Drak i cant see that center fix?
yea nash me either LOL.
Land hurting convection to the south

Never mind just saw it.
810. InTheCone 3:22 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
Flood -

I take it you have some expertise in judging between the two - lol!!!

And if so, I ain't goin' to be askin' bout' no preferences .....



LOL...warm and moving
lol, funny to think about anyway :))
817. hurricane23 8:26 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Drak i cant see that center fix?


i can hmmm. Maybe its a browser issue.
Link

That would be followed immediately by many four letter words from everyone here!

"What the ^%$#!!! Are they blind??? What's he smoking?!?!?!"

LOL!
Flood - These days, that could be either!!!
definitely would be funny. I can imagine it too.
LOL -
Thanks Amy!
Flood - Just barely missed the Dead -
Had tickets for the Chicago show the yr jerry died. (showing age....) Parents decided it wasn't a good place for me to be.

OK - I have decided SE FL will at least get a swipe from this thing....Bad enough to put up shutters? That is the question
my, my, my, lightning skull underwear, "artificial girls" and a NNW movement? never a dull moment here, I don't care what anyone says! Ha ha
*puts up the Cantori Watch flags* :))
832. 0741
you saw my question storm w????
So, maybe some tropical storm watches up for south florida next update?
Noel 120 hours out on the ECMWF:

Noel is getting interesting. The early 1800UTC runs show a rather drastic shift to the west--bringing it much closer to Florida. And I have to believe even those models failed to fully initialize the true center, since it's still attempting to establish itself.

A link doesn't work, but here it is for those who have not already looked.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

805. StormW 8:21 PM GMT on October 29, 2007

It's about 70 miles SW of the forecast point.

That seems reasonable. Its not so well defined though I think. As it get itself back together the whole thing may appear to adjust east (again) in a bit.
Eaglesrock- Throw the 12z globals out the window. They were all initialized before the COC made the big jump WWD today, so they are all off by quite a bit. 18z and 00z will be much more in line with what's going on.
Hey Baja - hope you're having a good afternoon.

If Noel does happen to get into Cuba, I think our buddy Taz. will be by with a RIP for it. It doesn't look put together well enough to deal with that terrain - IMO!!
833. weatherblog 4:29 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
So, maybe some tropical storm watches up for south florida next update?

Dont believe so if any maybe into tommorow.
You and JB neeed to read NHC 5PM
It IS going to be interesting to see what they do with the 5pm
ROFLMAO StormW!@!!!

Yeah, I am sure they are saying that:-)
If the current eye is the true eye watches will go up for south florida at probably the 5am advisory tommorow.
Hey InThe!! Afternoon to you.
LOL....Damn that StormW as he copy/pastes your forecast? *laffs*
I agree with the posts about the watches - probably tomorrow. But they will certainly mention them today or tonight if they think they will be warranted to get everybody's attention.

I don't think that we'll see any big change in track in the 5PM discussion. Probably a slight shift west AND a hint that there could be a bigger shift in the future. The 18Z models will have a better handle. The 00z models will be best of all, as they will incorporate the NOAA jet data. So, if a big track shift to the west happens, I expect that it will be at 11PM or more likely 5AM tomorrow.
Or the best 5pm NHC discussion of all would be this:

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
5PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

AFTER READING THE WU BLOG THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE DECIDED TO LET THEM WRITE THE DAMN DISCUSSION!

Hiya Gryff...long time no see
ROFL, Nash!!!
To funny...
JFV- Right now, not much to worry about. Even if Noel does come over the SE coast of FL, it shouldn't be too strong. Just pay attention to the local officials.
lol, Nash. We all could! lol
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

Howdy all from Texas. Thought this was interesting.
lol Nash.
Stormw - What are your thoughts on intensity and a landfall in CONUS?
I don't think that we'll see any big change in track in the 5PM discussion. Probably a slight shift west AND a hint that there could be a bigger shift in the future. The 18Z models will have a better handle. The 00z models will be best of all, as they will incorporate the NOAA jet data. So, if a big track shift to the west happens, I expect that it will be at 11PM or more likely 5AM tomorrow.

863. CosmicEvents 4:39 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
I don't think that we'll see any big change in track in the 5PM discussion. Probably a slight shift west AND a hint that there could be a bigger shift in the future. The 18Z models will have a better handle. The 00z models will be best of all, as they will incorporate the NOAA jet data. So, if a big track shift to the west happens, I expect that it will be at 11PM or more likely 5AM tomorrow.

On the money.
Wow. Freeze warnings in Peachtree City already.. It's a blazing 87 degrees in SO. Florida. I can still fry an egg on the sidewalk during the day.
yep CosmicEvents.
Guys- I would not be surprised if the 5pm advisory and especially the discussion rolls out a little later than normal.
I log on here, and the first thing I read is Nash28 comment. I love it man........
7 minutes until new advisory
No JFV. Shutters (at this point) are not necessary. You'll know if they become necessary.
JFV - Funny thing, my co-worker this weekend got harassed by his HOA to remove the shutters from the second story of his house. If he needs them, he is gonna try and make them come over and put them up...

(He went out on vacation earlier this year when Dean was forming and put them up as a precaution.)
869. jtn 4:41 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
JFV you may want to evacuate...leve florida asap


What...lol
One of the most interesting developments I am watching today is that the center of the ULL seems to be finally getting completely filled and swallowed up by Noel. The upper-level anti-cyclone seems to be well-centered over Noel and expanding to the west and southwest. Maybe by late tonight it will be one very large and more symmetric anti-cyclone over Noel.
60mph max if it hat makes land fall in south fla you all agree.
well down here in miami its really blowing and its not do to noel its the high pressure making it blow down here. Now Noel looking at us with more wind there goes our beaches.
if you put up shutters now you will be the only one in the state lol.
879. Vortex95 4:43 PM EDT on October 29, 2007
60mph max if it hat makes land fall in south fla you all agree.

Enough to knock of your power....
I'll just probably but the shutters in the southeastern side of the house.
jfv step away from the keyboard and unplug the comp
Iam getting tired of refreshing to be honest with you.
858. texcolorado 8:37 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

Howdy all from Texas. Thought this was interesting.


I heard about this on the radio this afternoon. Commentary was that this is the 3rd least active storm year, in terms of ACE, in recorded history.

888. hurricane23 8:46 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Iam getting tired of refreshing to be honest with you.


your not the only one...
Thanks for the insight Stormw. You've called this one great from the beginning. 80W is a South Florida Hit as a TS.

It looks like ocean temps support a hurricane, although the shear is an issue. Hopefully NOEL doesn't have a set of Wind Shear Wipers.
Me too Adrian!

As soon as the 5pm comes out, I am leaving the office.
good afternoon all

Nash Now that is funny. I don't care who you are that is funny.

Frost on the pumpkin this am. Beautiful fall day.
The Blog is only warming up. Wait until the popular media start mentioning Florida and tropical storm. Let the scrolling for posts begin...
I wonder if whomever is doing the 5pm is just sitting there with a blinking cursor in Word staring into space:-)
texcolorado's link to some interesting TropicalCyclone Activity stats
I need to write an auto-refresh script for the NHC page... I have to leave at 5pm to pick the kids up... ARRGGH.
Probably not much need for shutters, but even here in my office I sometimes think hip waders might be in order...
my local met just ran a track that was simmilar to last night and only mentioned the bahamas
Avila beginning the discussion with:

"The night was sultry".
Just issue it already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JFV you got mail.
It's going to get very crowded in here pretty soon, I fear...
No problem JFV...
rule of thumb for shutters and prep .
Always plan for one more classification higher that forcasted that is all you need to know
oh almost forgot
then pray
LOL
914. 0741
Avila beginning the discussion with:

"The night was sultry".
is disussion out????? i have not got it yet???
Nash28,

I'd pee my pants if he began his discussion that way... I thought it was funny when the NHC mentioned BLOB watching in one there discussions. Apparently they do frequent here.
911. Floodman 1:52 PM PDT on October 29, 2007

It's going to get very crowded in here pretty soon, I fear..


can I sit on someone's shoulders...hey, it's just like a rock concert....

;)
Yeah Adrian- They're all sitting around with popcorn in their laps saying "I thought you were doing the 5pm".
Well the track where is it?
This just in: The 5pm update has been pushed back to 6pm...
You guys are Killing me with the JFV stuff, lol
I have to get my wife at 5pm!
Nash? Maybe they're drawing straws? :))
JFV WHERE ARE YOU LOCATED
I have to get my beer at 5pm!
lol Adrian....
LOL Baja!
930. 0741
This just in: The 5pm update has been pushed back to 6pm nooooooooooo we want it 5pm
Daskter are u serious they can do that. OMG those ***es lol when have they done this last.
Has to be this chick...
5 pm discussion should be easy.. WHOLE ATLANTIC UNDER HURRICANE WATCH FOR WE HAVE NO IDEA WHERE OR HOW STRONG
climb aboard Amy we can rock till i drop LOL
I live in "Wade" county.
See? Nash was right! They're messin' with us :))
Yeah Adrian- They threw her under the bus and told her to hammer this one out.

Good luck!!!! LOL!
941. A4Guy
How many times will the 5 p.m. update be pasted into this blog?
...NOEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 215
MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
Hey, JFV we're neighbors... Also in the country of Dade.

They can do whatever They want to do. THere has been no announcement that is has been pushed back though.
921. Dakster 3:54 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
This just in: The 5pm update has been pushed back to 6pm...



Stop it, or JFV is going to pop!
ROFLMAO jp!!!
000
WTNT21 KNHC 292057
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUAY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 73.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.4N 75.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 74.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
ITS OUT. The 5pm is out...
Bet the track map will be the last to update from the NHC.......lol
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL
Just interested how close you are gloing to be to this thing for your prep ,where you there during Andrew
from the 5pm:
"Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel."
Strap in guys!!!!

Things are changing!

Should be a fun evening.
Amy is going to be backstage...I got her a pass; Baja too
Winds extend over 200 miles from the center.

Um, that basically covers the entire state from coast to coast.
Do I see a slight wobble to WSW in the last few visible sat loops,probably feeling the effects of the HIGH saying not up this way just yet, wouldn't be surprised if this ended back in Caribbean just south of Cuba, my opinon, any thoughts ?
952. JFV 3:59 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
thanks floodman



De nada, dude!
new advisories on local news. haven't seen it h ere.


been gone for couple of hours... new advisory is late.. OH Boy Bryan Norcross is going to go onto Chanel 4 (local CBS)



you guys crack me up... I take it JFV is still asking "questions" every 2 minutes...got tired of seeing those yeasterday.
Bryan Norcross is on..


he feels we will have this TS coming in our directions with TS winds... but he does not think SE Fla will have hurricane winds..

he is on and explaning now... bbl
LOL flood...thanks pal :))
963. jtn
as of 5pm 25.8 - 79.0 thats the furthest west the official forecast has been
new blog guys...
Brian is giving his opinions.. and possibilities...

his scenario #1 is terrrible for SE Fla

#2 will make Bahamas getting worse.

THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST AND SO/ FLA IS BACK IN THE CONE AGAIN
970. jtn
Is Brian twitching.....??
SE Florida is now in the Cone again..
every minute gamma evry minute!!!!!
but no mention of watches or warnings yet for us.
man sofla media was caught completely off guard...yesterday when the forecast tracks all swung north and eastward, everyone let their guards down...today it swings over just a bit and they're caught with their tail between their legs..

watch tonight's newscasts...they're gonna hype the crap out of this storm...
972. rareaire 5:05 PM AST on October 29, 2007
every minute gamma evry minute!!!
!!


LOL that is why that ignore button is so nice!

Drak and H23

Link
977. 0741
i going bring some shutte down soon
50-60mph still strong wind
new blog up
979. 0741
thanks
Hi Floodman, haven't seen you for a while.

Good evening to everyone. I'd have a question about the link posted by texcolorado.

858. texcolorado 10:37 PM EET on October 29, 2007

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/


What does PDI mean? I tried wikipedia which lists 13 meanings of this abbreviation but nothing weather related. But when checking wiki, I found an article about an outburst of Comet 17/P Holmes in the news section. I have to check whether it's visible here. Duh, it's cloudy and stormy. :-/
JFV, I'd board those shutters up if I was you.
TAD INAPPROPRIATE DONT YOU THINK IRISH
It's always a BAD idea to make straightline projections over such long distances, so for amusement only...
...IF Noel continues traveling NorthWest at 15mph for the full distance, Noel will make a landing near PalmBeach,Florida within 38hours after 5:00PM EDT today, ie 7:00AM EDT on Halloween morning.