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NOAA Winter Outlook: El Niño a Dominant Player, but Wild Cards Still Possible

By: Bob Henson 7:54 PM GMT on October 15, 2015

There’s no missing the influence of El Niño on NOAA’s winter outlook for 2015-16, which was released on Thursday morning. The odds are heavily weighted toward the types of winter weather prevalent during the very strongest El Niño events. The ongoing El Niño is solidly in the top three since 1950, a bit weaker than the record-setting 1997–98 event but stronger than the 1982–83 event.


Figure 1. NOAA’s outlook for winter temperatures (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the three-month period from December 2015 to February 2016. NOAA outlooks are expressed as probabilities for above- or below-average conditions. In the three-class system used by NOAA, an area labeled “equal chances” means that there’s roughly a 33% chance each of below-, near-, or above-average outcomes. If a location is shown with higher odds of above-average conditions, then the probability for below-average outcomes goes down proportionally (e.g., 50% above-average, 33% near-average, and 17% below-average). See NOAA’s online reference guide for more details.

In a nutshell: Wet and cool South, mild and dry North
The enhanced subtropical jet streams common during El Niño tend to boost precipitation across the U.S. Sunbelt and decrease it toward the northern tier of states, as reflected in Figure 1. The same dynamics act to “smoosh out” temperature contrasts across the nation: the cloudy, wet conditions across the South are often accompanied by chilly temperatures, while the drier conditions toward the Northern Rockies are often joined by relatively mild air. NOAA’s Mike Halpert said at a Thursday-morning teleconference that the forecast implies about 2% fewer heating degree days than average. This would also be about 6% fewer days than last winter, he added.

A couple of key caveats:

—NOAA’s probabilities are not meant to imply any judgment on how intense an outcome might be. They’re simply showing where unusually cool, mild, wet, or dry conditions may prevail. Higher odds for those outcomes don’t necessarily mean that the results will be more dramatic than in other areas.

—As the name implies, the seasonal outlooks are meant to convey conditions for the three-month winter period as a whole. They aren't designed to show how much variability there could be across those three months, and of course weather can vary a great deal within a 90-day period.

With that in mind, let’s look at a few potential regional wild cards around the contiguous 48 states. (Warmer- and drier-than-average conditions are good bets for both Hawaii and Alaska.) For more detail on how El Niño affects various parts of the nation, see our roundups published on July 28 and July 30.

California
The strongest El Niño events—like the one now in place--are closely linked to wet winter conditions, especially over Southern California. In both 1982-83 and 1997-98, California arguably got too much of a good thing, with mudslides and floods causing millions in damage. In his October blog post, WU weather historian Chris Burt takes a close look at how those two seasons panned out. One important element will be the temperatures that accompany any big winter storms. If they’re on the warm side—a big problem in recent years—then the snowpack accumulating over the Sierra Nevada could end up disappointingly low. Regardless, aquifers and ecosystems stand to benefit big time if El Niño produces as expected. Overall, this winter offers the best chance in years for California to make up some (though not all) of the hydrologic ground it’s lost during the severe drought in place since 2011. Residents will need to keep calm and carry on for a while longer, though, as the parade of storms common during strong El Niños often doesn’t arrive until December or even January. And crucially, even high odds aren’t the same as a guarantee. While the mega-El Niños of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were both very good to California in terms of precipitation, one of the three next-strongest events (1965-66) fell below average in winter precipitation for all but southern California. You can see how El Niños of various strengths performed at Jan Null’s excellent website on El Niño and California precipitation.

Pacific Northwest
This region is heading into the El Niño of 2015-16 after a dry winter and a very warm, dry summer. Unfortunately, one of the most dependable outcomes of a strong El Niño is winter warmth and dryness from Oregon and Washington into Montana. So the region could go into spring and summer 2016 with even more water worries than last year.

The South
Drab winter weather—chilly and damp—is likely to prevail from Texas to the Southeast coast in 2015-16. The risk of severe weather may be boosted along the immediate Gulf and southeast Atlantic coastal areas. Florida, in particular, needs to watch the skies this winter, as strong El Niño events are associated with a heightened risk of tornado outbreaks, as in the deadly Kissimmee outbreak of February 1998.

The Midwest and Northeast
Tucked inside the somewhat equivocal NOAA outlook for this region is some important nuance. The 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niños both led to a vast swath of warm winter conditions covering much of Canada and the northern United States, all the way from the Northern Plains to New England. Given the long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures, some truly impressive “warm waves” seem likely to take shape in this area. At the same time, the last few winters have been surprisingly cold and snowy over parts of the Midwest and Northeast. Various experts attribute this to the reverberations of unusually warm water in parts of the tropical Atlantic, the presence in some years of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and/or the loss of Arctic sea ice. We don’t yet know how all of these factors will line up for 2015-16, but I would cast my lot on a mixed-bag winter from the mid-Atlantic to New England, with periods of marked warmth punctuated by occasional sharp but transient cold blasts. Those could end up producing at least one big snowstorm if a negative NAO enters the picture. A good case in point is the winter of 1982-83, when a comparably strong El Niño was in place. Though the winter of 1982-83 averaged quite mild in the Northeast, it also produced the crippling Megapolitan snowstorm of February 10-12, 1983, which dumped 20” – 30” in northwestern suburbs from Washington to Boston. Below is a “blast from the past” YouTube audio clip of a KYW radio newscast from the Philadelphia area during the height of the storm.

Bob Henson


long range winter outlook El Niño Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Mr Henson.....it's going to be interesting. I hear thunder!
Thanks Mr. Henson.

In Florida, we all need to bundle up this winter and hope for the best.
Thanks for the Updates, Mr. Henson....
That 1983 El Nino was a bad one to..........I remember some bridges getting washed out in these parts........also lost 2 lanes of Highway 79 in 1993 event.........dem some bad boys!
Sorry for the site downtime today--We've identified a possible cause and are actively working on a full resolution. Thanks for your patience!

Jeff Masters
So my school closes when the winds exceed 39 mph, so I was wondering if my school would close? The local mets are saying winds 30-35 mph. And gusts over 40...
First lake effect flurries of the season late Friday night into Saturday.

A cold air mass will move into Southern Ontario beginning Friday night and lasting through the weekend. For areas to the southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, rain showers are expected to transition over to flurries late Friday night and continue into Saturday.

At this point, it appears that some snowfall accumulation is likely. Several centimetres of wet snow are anticipated late Friday night and continuing into Saturday. Exactly how much snow will fall is difficult to determine at this moment as the placement of the heaviest lake effect snow bands is still uncertain. Reduced visibility in bursts of heavier flurries is also possible.

For areas immediately along the lakeshore, accumulations should be less as temperatures there will be a few degrees warmer due to the relatively warmer lakes.

The lake effect flurries should slowly wind down on Sunday.

People who will be travelling in these regions are advised to monitor future forecasts as more information becomes available. Snow squall watches and warnings may be required as the event draws nearer.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.
All we can hope for here in California is that we get the timing and right amounts as best we can. Cannot predict that of course. Do not want a lot of snow in the Sierra's and then warm rains melting it all flooding everyone. I hope for above normal rains in the Jan-Feb timeframe and then bookoo snows later that will melt slowly and under control in late spring/early summer.......Not asking for much huh? Would love to see the falls running in summer in Yosemite! If you have never been to Yosemite.......GET THERE! Talk about God's country!
out of curiosity what does the el nino event mean for the western carib and the typical cold fronts that often swing into out area?
Quoting 10. 19N81W:

out of curiosity what does the el nino event mean for the western carib and the typical cold fronts that often swing into out area?
Google 1993 FL Derecho...... Theres your answer! :)
Quoting 5. JeffMasters:

Sorry for the site downtime today--We've identified a possible cause and are actively working on a full resolution. Thanks for your patience!

Jeff Masters


You guys do a great job running the blog Dr Masters.......thanks for all the time and effort!
It looks like its going to be very busy next week in the south east.



Quoting 6. Camerooski:

So my school closes when the winds exceed 39 mph, so I was wondering if my school would close? The local mets are saying winds 30-35 mph. And gusts over 40.. School buses aren't supposed to operate when the winds are > 40 MPH.


It probably won't as long as sustained are under 40.
that could have given us a bit of rain and wind.....dont remember to be honest

Quoting 11. Camerooski:

Google 1993 FL Derecho...... Theres your answer! :)
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 15 2015


Excerpt:

FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 18 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 22: A FAST MOVING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT REGIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE ABOUT 12 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING THEIR FIRST FREEZE OR FROST OF THE SEASON.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE LOS ANGELES/RIVERSIDE AREA, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 90 DEGREES F, ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

Quoting 5. JeffMasters:

Sorry for the site downtime today--We've identified a possible cause and are actively working on a full resolution. Thanks for your patience!
Jeff Masters

Thanks for your efforts as well!
Hmm, last week my image host was down. Two days ago my favorite German weather site was down. Today WU was down (again). Cranky internet! Thought about buying an old fashioned radio with antenna and batteries ... no joke, lol, you never know what's going to happen ;-)
Ironic barbamz, I just got 2 new devices, one mobile, one new Macbook and as soon as Logged on the internets, wu was not loading.

So like I usually do I went to the wu twitter feed and they had a note on the outage there.

69Weather Underground @wunderground 1h1 hour ago
We're aware of a network issue that is affecting our website and mobile apps. Our team is investigating. Thanks for your patience.
14 retweets 16 favorites

Stanford looks at impact of warming weather on Vail Resorts valuation

Climate exposure. At first glance, that can mean getting a sunburn. Or frostbite. It can also mean risking dollars.

Climate exposure, according to Stanford researchers, means investors in snow-reliant companies like Vail Resorts could lose money due to warming trends decimating ski runs and resort revenue.

Stanford University’s Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance recently analyzed how the variations of winter temperatures in the West impacts the valuation of the continent’s largest resort operator.


Link
Quoting 20. Patrap:
So like I usually do I went to the wu twitter feed and they had a note on the outage there.

Yeah, Pat, I've checked twitter as well. WU did a good job this time addressing their issues in there immediately!
Quoting 9. Patrap:




That ULL at 20n 55w is quite impressive. A lot of the ULL's are really powerful controlling the flow, being so small and all never fails to amaze me. Meanwhile at the surface, a very busy map.

Quoting 5. JeffMasters:

Sorry for the site downtime today--We've identified a possible cause and are actively working on a full resolution. Thanks for your patience!

Jeff Masters


I thought that it may have been a DoS attack. I promise I did not try to log on that many times.
Quoting 5. JeffMasters:

Sorry for the site downtime today--We've identified a possible cause and are actively working on a full resolution. Thanks for your patience!

Jeff Masters


Just got to full site MST 2:43 PM.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI (1525)
3:00 AM JST October 16 2015
==============================
Near Mariana Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Champi (985 hPa) located at 16.2N 148.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
240 NM from the center in western quadrant
150 NM from the center in eastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 17.7N 143.2E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 19.8N 140.7E - 70 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 21.7N 141.3E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Ogasawara waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON KOPPU (1524)
3:00 AM JST October 16 2015
==============================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Koppu (970 hPa) located at 15.5N 127.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 15.9N 124.6E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.0N 122.0E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 16.6N 121.2E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland Luzon
(looks at old computer, laying in shreds)

Oh.
Unless winds are sustained over 39, schools will remain open. So unless you see forecasts saying winds 35-40mph, school is still going.
Bring it on!

(Decent autumn extratropical storm in my neck of the woods being fed by the system expected to form in the gulf, shown here now well inland).

Quoting 29. aquak9:

(looks at old computer, laying in shreds)

Oh.




Computer in a shed? My mistake - you said shreds.

Perfect weather day today. Bottomed out in the mid 50's this morning with low 80's this afternoon under plentiful sunshine.
I remember that 1983 snowstorm vividly. We were living in Manhattan and my dad took us all out to walk the empty streets that first night. This was before the rise of the SUV and pretty much the only cars that could manage the snow were the old stretch limousines that roamed Park and 5th Avenues.

The sky was that ambient, diffuse orange that nighttime city skies get and there were heavy flakes falling, and the place was virtually silent. Every now and then we'd have to get out of the way of a big limo but otherwise we had the streets to ourselves.
thank you for the update mr henson.i am happy that this winter promises to be cool one for the florida peninsula :)
Quoting 29. aquak9:

(looks at old computer, laying in shreds)

Oh.

site check for website if down

Link
Quoting 23. bigwes6844:



Interesting subtropical/hybrid cyclone forming northwest of the Canary Islands, btw (see the purple-blue color in the upper right corner). Current airmass pic below shows the system in the lower left corner and another circulation right above. ECMWF got those two vortices merging off the coast of the Iberian peninsula on Saturday (if I get this right? I'm not very good in "translating" models, lol, and conditions down there look quite complex with several swirls).




Source: Levi's site.


UKMET phase diagram.
+4200 Acres have burned in Bastrop just 4 years after 34,356 acres were burned in Sept 2011. State of Disaster has been declared in Bastrop county.


Just plain rediculous just about 4 months can make from green forest to burning forest.
Netflix is down too been hr now
Quoting 29. aquak9:

(looks at old computer, laying in shreds)

Oh.


I am just glad that you were able to salvage it, aquak9.
Quoting 37. SouthCentralTx:

+4200 Acres have burned in Bastrop just 4 years after 34,356 acres were burned in Sept 2011. State of Disaster has been declared in Bastrop county.


Just plain rediculous just about 4 months can make from green forest to burning forest.


We were traveling from San Antonio to Houston on Tuesday and could see the fire from I-10
Thanks for the update on El Nino and its effects.

Thanks also for the classic throwback audio from news radio, complete with the teletype background sound effects!
Used to be, 'news' radio was a calm and reassuring statement of the current conditions. Now 'talk' radio has to be shrill and opinionated to get listeners.

Thanks again
Quoting 5. JeffMasters:

Sorry for the site downtime today--We've identified a possible cause and are actively working on a full resolution. Thanks for your patience!

Jeff Masters

Can't say he didn't warn you Doc.

Quoting 97. Grothar:

Keep making fun of my blobs and I'll turn off the weather. :P
Quoting 41. SubtropicalHi:



We were traveling from San Antonio to Houston on Tuesday and could see the fire from I-10


The fire, or the smoke? Bastrop is a long way from I-10.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER INCREDIBLE DAY OUT THERE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MOST...AND EVEN A COUPLE OF 80S IN
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. TONIGHT`S LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS CHILLY AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CURRENTLY ONGOING.
THIS FLOW IS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL AS THIS FRONT PASSES BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS
FRONT...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE
RAIN. WILL MAINTAIN A VERY SMALL POP FOR LIGHT RAIN BUT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF FOLKS...THIS WILL ONLY BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

BY NOON FRIDAY THIS FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE AND THE
SUN WILL BE BACK OUT. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH THAT...MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION. A CP AIRMASS
DIRECTLY ON THE HEELS OF TONIGHT`S FRONT WILL BE THE CATALYST IN
CREATING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THOSE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO INCLUDE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. WHILE SUNDAY MORNING STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SPOTS EAST OF
I-65 CREEPING TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK...ALL THREE MORNINGS ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE FROST. THIS BEING THE FIRST FROST OF THE
SEASON...WILL COVER THIS WITH AN SPS FOR NOW...BUT DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SUNDAY MORNING`S FROST COVERAGE...I EXPECT TO
HAVE TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY WITH A FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGE.

A SLOW WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND BY
TUESDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK NEAR NORMAL. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
RAIN UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT BOTH OF THE LATEST LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS HAVE A HEAVY RAIN MAKER COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.


UNGER
Quoting 17. Tazmanian:




obama care did it


I thought it was the spellcheck on your new computer...
(sigh) That rainy el Nino weather we keep hearing about. I am from South Louisiana (BTR) where we average 60" a year, double DFW's average of 29". Endless ways of blue sky kinda make me crazy.

We've had so little rain since spring, and they are reducing our chances for next week:

000
FXUS64 KFWD 151953
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
253 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
......
UNFORTUNATELY THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS FROM BOTH OF
THESE MODELS (ECMWF AND GFS) ACTUALLY DEEPEN THE SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVE
IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
SOLUTION VERIFIES IT WOULD KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WELL TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE GULF AS BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR IT COULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS CUT OFF FROM ANY
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION MOVES.
Quoting 44. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



The fire, or the smoke? Bastrop is a long way from I-10.

We couldn't see flames. Fire was 25 miles away. It looked like a "shelf" cloud or "wall cloud"...like a huge solid mass of rain touching the ground - except it was smoke going up...

Waiting to see what the 18z will look like.
Quoting 47. hydrus:


high pressure on top of all the bad weather,right?
Quoting 38. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Netflix is down too been hr now
widespread ddos attack?
Quoting 19. barbamz:


Thanks for your efforts as well!
Hmm, last week my image host was down. Two days ago my favorite German weather site was down. Today WU was down (again). Cranky internet! Thought about buying an old fashioned radio with antenna and batteries ... no joke, lol, you never know what's going to happen ;-)
If you live in a hurricane zone, an old-fashioned radio is a requirement. Sometimes the only way to get info is via good ole' AM/FM ....

Good afternoon all .... it's been cool and / or rainy over New Providence today. My sinuses don't know what to make of this wx.... it's been so hot the last few Octobers ....
Quoting 33. MaineGuy:

I remember that 1983 snowstorm vividly. We were living in Manhattan and my dad took us all out to walk the empty streets that first night. This was before the rise of the SUV and pretty much the only cars that could manage the snow were the old stretch limousines that roamed Park and 5th Avenues.

The sky was that ambient, diffuse orange that nighttime city skies get and there were heavy flakes falling, and the place was virtually silent. Every now and then we'd have to get out of the way of a big limo but otherwise we had the streets to ourselves.


Having spent a fair portion of my life in Missouri and Iowa I loved when a good heavy snow would fall with calm winds. Snow is a great insulator and reduces the noise. The nighttime event as you experienced was a treat. The calm combined with the untouched snowpack and nighttime "brightness" brings back some memories. I used to drag my brother out to a local HS football field to sling a few balls around well after dark. Visibility was similar to that of a day with dense cloud cover. It was cool. Then the morning after I would spend my time building an igloo had there been 6" plus. I'd shovel the folks yard down to bare grass to build my "palace"

(Click for the loop.) Koppu/Lando and Champi in the WPAC.

Another loop (next one already prepares to form behind those two?)
Quoting 46. indianrivguy:



I thought it was the spellcheck on your new computer...

BURN
On October 16, 1975, the first satellite under the GOES program was launched from Cape Canaveral, FL. GOES-A was renamed GOES-I once it reached orbit. GOES-2 and GOES-3 followed in 1977 and 1978. GOES-1 through GOES-3 were almost identical to the design of the SMS satellites, spin stabilized and carrying the VISSR, SEM, and DCS.

GOES-1 First Image



Quoting 49. SubtropicalHi:


We couldn't see flames. Fire was 25 miles away. It looked like a "shelf" cloud or "wall cloud"...like a huge solid mass of rain touching the ground - except it was smoke going up...
The fire is southeast of Bastrop near Smithville. I saw a news story saying 50% contained yesterday, but today I see 15% contained.


Here's how the Bastrop fire looked on Tuesday. (Obviously this newspaper pic is from the air) But from i-10 (25 miles away) this was pretty much how it looked. Wind was from the north blowing smoke toward i-10.

(Sorry didn't put in my other post cuz I spent some time figuring out how to resize the image)
Anyone seen Tropicsweatherpr? He hasn't posted anything in a while.
Quoting 33. MaineGuy:

I remember that 1983 snowstorm vividly. We were living in Manhattan and my dad took us all out to walk the empty streets that first night. This was before the rise of the SUV and pretty much the only cars that could manage the snow were the old stretch limousines that roamed Park and 5th Avenues.

The sky was that ambient, diffuse orange that nighttime city skies get and there were heavy flakes falling, and the place was virtually silent. Every now and then we'd have to get out of the way of a big limo but otherwise we had the streets to ourselves.


In Central New Jersey this storm produced very intense and frequent cloud to ground lightning accompanying the heavy snow. There was a stiff wind out of the northeast near Princeton. It was not calm. I was afraid to go out for about a half hour because of the blinding lightning and crashing thunder with no detectable separation between flash and crash. Temperatures were in the upper teens to low 20s during this time.

Final total was around 15-18". Areas around me got more, up to about 20"
whatever comes out of this system in the gulf will have a huge MJO pulse i been pointing out since last week.
Quoting 53. BahaHurican:

If you live in a hurricane zone, an old-fashioned radio is a requirement. Sometimes the only way to get info is via good ole' AM/FM ....

Ah, yes, I'm old enough to remember those pre-internet times (even without hurricanes around in Germany). In the early/mid 70s it was especially stylish to listen to AFN (American Forces Radio) to get the latest hits, lol. --- Good night from quite cold and wet Germany, folks.
Quoting 19. barbamz:


Thanks for your efforts as well!
Hmm, last week my image host was down. Two days ago my favorite German weather site was down. Today WU was down (again). Cranky internet! Thought about buying an old fashioned radio with antenna and batteries ... no joke, lol, you never know what's going to happen ;-)


In this moment in history that's never been truer. Russia quickly eliminating rebel positions and backed now by ground forces from Iran, the Axis has gained momentum and the upper hand. 26-40 million refugees fleeing all this and NATO and the USA sit on their hands in fear and disbelief. 17 trillion in debt in the USA with almost all Western economies under the EURO also in insolvable debt, as the top one percent rake in all the money worldwide and the poor and middle class languish. Like Tupac said, "That's just the way it is, some things will never change."
It's raining Ped.........the street is wet.......won't last long, they are moving north at 35mph!
by next week these conditions will begin to become favorable for development. With another front coming through Saturday after the weekend going into next week should switch up.
Quoting 63. bigwes6844:

whatever comes out of this system in the gulf will have a huge MJO pulse i been pointing out since last week.

Sorry, but what is an MJO, and what does it mean to the system? Thanks
Quoting 59. PedleyCA:

Is that all there is?



For now brother! As the old saying goes "good things come to those that wait"........we will see. Hopefully the inside slider for the weekend will come further west and give us a bit more....and then there is always the El Nino.....just hope it will not turn into a El Nono!
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TYPHOON LANDO
5:00 AM PhST October 16 2015
====================
“LANDO” has intensified into typhoon and is now threatening the Aurora-Isabela area

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Lando [KOPPU] (976 hPa) located at 15.5N 127.8E or 670 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gustiness up to 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------
1. Isabela
2. Cagayan
3. Kalinga
4. Mt. Province
5. Ifugao
6. Nueva Viscaya
7. Quirino
8. Aurora
9. Nueva Ecija
10. Quezon including Polillo Island
11. Camarines Norte
12 Camarines Sur
13. Catanduanes


Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 550 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisher folk are advised not to venture out over the northern and western seaboards of northern Luzon, western seaboard of central Luzon and eastern seaboard of Visayas.

Light to moderate rains with occasional gusty winds over areas under PSWS #1.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Quoting 39. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I am just glad that you were able to salvage it, aquak9.


I lawled. :)
Quoting 68. Camerooski:

Sorry, but what is an MJO, and what does it mean to the system? Thanks


Madden-Julian Oscillation, an atmospheric wave that goes around the Earth. When it passes over an area of the Earth, it can aid in thunderstorm development. Basically, waves have a better chance of developing. Here's the NHC on the topic: Link It covers both the MJO and CCKW, or convectively-coupled Kelvin waves.
Quoting 66. HurricaneHunterJoe:

It's raining Ped.........the street is wet.......won't last long, they are moving north at 35mph!


Must have been PUNY, can't even see it on radar...

Very last post: Koppu is developing a large eye.
Quoting 74. barbamz:


Very last post: Koppu is developing a large eye.


G-night Barb.. be well see ya tomorrow.
Quoting 52. knightwarrior41:

widespread ddos attack?
No evididence of it at Outage Analyzer. Sometimes there's just a thing called coincidence happening.
Quoting 65. DeepSeaRising:



In this moment in history that's never been truer. Russia quickly eliminating rebel positions and backed now by ground forces from Iran, the Axis has gained momentum and the upper hand. 26-40 million refugees fleeing all this and NATO and the USA sit on their hands in fear and disbelief. 17 trillion in debt in the USA with almost all Western economies under the EURO also in insolvable debt, as the top one percent rake in all the money worldwide and the poor and middle class languish. Like Tupac said, "That's just the way it is, some things will never change."
Dude, Bruce Springsteen said that way before Tupac. Seriously, if you're going to write about the end of the world, at least get the music history right. :-)
Quoting 15. rmbjoe1954:



It probably won't as long as sustained are under 40.
I had no idea school busses flipped over in winds of 40 mph. I guess that kind of kills them for hurricane evacuations then....
Quoting 76. hydrus:


soon as the cold pushes east storm builds on the rtn flow from the south
Quoting 10. 19N81W:

out of curiosity what does the el nino event mean for the western carib and the typical cold fronts that often swing into out area?


Well it's cold and sometimes wet sometime average

I remember that El Niño winter we had back in 09/10 I think it was that time Florida froze over Cuba froze with them iguanas falling out of trees and here in Cayman was very chilly near record levels if not at or just past record best days of my life being in Cayman
Looks like Typhoon Koppu is weakening or reorganizing. JTWC seems to think maybe the latter.

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEPENED CONVECTIVE BANDING OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. HOWEVER, A 151813Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 70 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND AN INCREASE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY A POINT-SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. TY 24W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
EXTENSION, WITH THE STR ANCHORED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR EXTENSION AND A BUILDING
RIDGE EXTENSION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. UPPER-LEVEL AND
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, LEADING TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS BY TAU 36. BEYOND THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND
BEGIN DECAYING OVER LUZON.



Pretty matter of fact! Typhoon Koppu WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON LUZON! Best wishes to the citizens of Luzon. Be safe!

Quoting 81. wunderkidcayman:



Well it's cold and sometimes wet sometime average

I remember that El Niño winter we had back in 09/10 I think it was that time Florida froze over Cuba froze with them iguanas falling out of trees and here in Cayman was very chilly near record levels if not at or just past record best days of my life being in Cayman
we had to wear helmets in FLA because Iguanas were falling out of em... CRAZY

Here are some 24 hr totals...
Quoting 73. PedleyCA:



Must have been PUNY, can't even see it on radar...


Flash Flood warnings for Northwest LA county, Northern Ventura county.

from http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/053.html?:

At 309 PM PDT... Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the warned area. Two debris
flows were reported over Highway 33... four miles north of ozena by
Forest service officials. In addition... large hail up to 1 inch in
diameter was reported in this location. Heavy rain... flash flooding
and debris flows are expected to continue through at least 5 PM
today.

Nary a drop at my house. One of the areas mentioned for heavy rains was the Lake Hughes, Lake Elizabeth areas. Is was up there Sunday, the lakes were powder dry.
Quoting 59. PedleyCA:

Is that all there is?


That beautiful swirl in the top left is the next NW swell, due to arrive on Sunday. Should be a solid 3 - 5 ft.
On a side note - Lindbergh field (the official San Diego station) has recorded over 60 days where the temp never goes below 70. Average is 10.
Quoting 83. Camerooski:

we had to wear helmets in FLA because Iguanas were falling out of em... CRAZY


you wore your big wheel helmet?


SW and W Carib picking up

Quoting 85. chasSoCal:



Flash Flood warnings for Northwest LA county, Northern Ventura county.

from http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/053.html?:

At 309 PM PDT... Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the warned area. Two debris
flows were reported over Highway 33... four miles north of ozena by
Forest service officials. In addition... large hail up to 1 inch in
diameter was reported in this location. Heavy rain... flash flooding
and debris flows are expected to continue through at least 5 PM
today.

Nary a drop at my house. One of the areas mentioned for heavy rains was the Lake Hughes, Lake Elizabeth areas. Is was up there Sunday, the lakes were powder dry.


Lake Hughes is a mess right now. Watching it on the NEWS, road impassable. Mud everywhere...
Large t-storms over the Tehachapis this hour. Mostly cloudy, muggy and threatening skies over the SF Bay Area this afternoon, but not much on radar yet.


LOS ANGELES CA-
327 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM PDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

AT 319 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CLUSTER OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THERE IS A
RECENT TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS OF SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS
BEING SIGHTED. THE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR FAIRMONT DAM IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE HUGHES...OR 5 MILES NORTH
OF CASTAIC LAKE. THESE STORM WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELIZABETH LAKE...
LAKE HUGHES...
GORMAN...
HIGHWAY 138 BETWEEN QUAIL LAKE AND LANCASTER...
INTERSTATE 5 OVER THE GRAPEVINE
Quoting 64. barbamz:


Ah, yes, I'm old enough to remember those pre-internet times (even without hurricanes around in Germany). In the early/mid 70s it was especially stylish to listen to AFN (American Forces Radio) to get the latest hits, lol. --- Good night from quite cold and wet Germany, folks.
A geek moment here. If you're going to buy a battery powered radio, the Tecsun PL-600 is an amazingly good radio. Standard AM and FM, with the European 9 KHz steps selectable, has long wave for the remaining European longwave stations, and has shortwave with single sideband. With single sideband, you can listen to things like aviation weather and ham radio around the world. No matter what happens, some of us hams will still be on the radio until the batteries run out. About USD$75, so probably about 500 Euros in Germany. :-)
Quoting 80. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

soon as the cold pushes east storm builds on the rtn flow from the south
Good thing Mexico and Central America are there...We would have a large storm brewin..:)...Good evening Keep...
End of the world Sar? Come on, so dramatic. Huge regional conflict in the Middle East with WW with Russia and Iran pushing the brink; destabilizing happening in Libya, Lebanon, and others. Luckily Yemen is doing great! No hot war between Iran and Saudi Arabia there. Everything's fine. Israel and Palestine are fine, gonna make some shirts like that. No moral collapse in the West. No this is change we can believe in. Vices can be a great scrabble word. Fifty percent of Americans roughly believe in AGW, that's not a problem! That's progress! This is not the TREX El-Nino, not even the strongest ever, top three but we've seen worse. We'll fix things, things will get better. Won't they?
Quoting 51. knightwarrior41:

high pressure on top of all the bad weather,right?
Yes, but elongated , so it helps some, but like if the whole area was covered.
Quoting 72. Astrometeor:



Madden-Julian Oscillation, an atmospheric wave that goes around the Earth. When it passes over an area of the Earth, it can aid in thunderstorm development. Basically, waves have a better chance of developing. Here's the NHC on the topic: Link It covers both the MJO and CCKW, or convectively-coupled Kelvin waves.
Also known as the (MOJO) Mojo is coming.
Quoting 53. BahaHurican:

If you live in a hurricane zone, an old-fashioned radio is a requirement. Sometimes the only way to get info is via good ole' AM/FM ....

Good afternoon all .... it's been cool and / or rainy over New Providence today. My sinuses don't know what to make of this wx.... it's been so hot the last few Octobers ....

Older phones that are not wireless, will usually still work during weather and other emergencies. I keep one in a cupboard just in case!


A sfc low has formed in the SW Carib 18Z charts
Quoting 87. indianrivguy:



you wore your big wheel helmet?


I really needed that good laugh. I'm a fan Camerooski and whimsically wish for your youth and enthusiasm as increased knowledge has led to increased consternation for me in a world in trouble. Best laugh I've had in awhile here.
Quoting 73. PedleyCA:



Must have been PUNY, can't even see it on radar...


LOLOLOL..........didn't say it was a monsoon storm......just enough to wet the street......but the awning had that nice pop pop pop sound!
Quoting 97. wunderkidcayman:



A sfc low has formed in the SW Carib 18Z charts
That low is almost always there.
Quoting 98. DeepSeaRising:



I really needed that good laugh. I'm a fan Camerooski and whimsically wish for your youth and enthusiasm as increased knowledge has led to increased consternation for me in a world in trouble. Best laugh I've had in awhile here.
Im a fan of you too! :)
Quoting 97. wunderkidcayman:



A sfc low has formed in the SW Carib 18Z charts
Maybe the NAVGEM was right after all and it will ride up the Yucatan and hot FL as a strong Cat 2... 0_0 lol
I just love long range models. The GFS now has the 999 mb low making landfall at the LA/TX border on Sunday, the 25th. It then wanders in a circle around LA until Monday, at which time it goes back out into the Gulf. In the next six hours, the low literally disappears as high pressure once again takes over. So far, the GFS has had this low hitting everywhere from Florida to Mexico, always at 200 hours or more out. I think I'll hold off on the plywood for a while yet.
Quoting 84. PedleyCA:


Here are some 24 hr totals...


Im just to the right and a tad below that .05 measurement on Palomar Mountain right on that highway......I have a view of Palomar from my porch outside.
Quoting 101. Camerooski:

Maybe the NAVGEM was right after all and it will ride up the Yucatan and hot FL as a strong Cat 2... 0_0 lol
You see that double red line to the left of the low? That's the monsoon trough. The low will travel along the trough and out into the Pacific, maybe becoming the next hurricane there. That low is not going north.
Quoting 101. Camerooski:

Im a fan of you too! :)
Maybe the NAVGEM was right after all and it will ride up the Yucatan and hot FL as a strong Cat 2... 0_0 lol
Not the same system.
Ok, somebody enlighten me here, what that heck is up with the GFS 18Z run. Looks like the low in the Gulf or potential storm goes inland around NO, drops back down, loops a little, another Low appears. Am I looking at this wrong?
Quoting 101. Camerooski:

Im a fan of you too! :)
Maybe the NAVGEM was right after all and it will ride up the Yucatan and hot FL as a strong Cat 2... 0_0 lol


More likely it will move west and become the East pac storm that all the reliable models are showing in the Tehuantepec in about 4 or 5 days
Quoting 108. hurricanewatcher61:

Ok, somebody enlighten me here, what that heck is up with the GFS 18Z run. Looks like the low in the Gulf or potential storm goes inland around NO, drops back down, loops a little, another Low appears. Am I looking at this wrong?
Quoting 99. HurricaneHunterJoe:



LOLOLOL..........didn't say it was a monsoon storm......just enough to wet the street......but the awning had that nice pop pop pop sound!


Those are the ones I get, just enough to make a muddy mess.
And good rain for PR?
Quoting 105. Patrap:




What say ye Mr. Patrap? Thinking NHC drops out yellow circle tomorrow afternoon likely on this potential Gulf system. Potential is there, will it get far enough North to conditionally develop or will it get dragged East sooner and die? Think this place will be hopping Friday onward as Sar's peeps, the Floridians, return to doom cast him into insanity.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nineteen-E, located about a little more than a thousand
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive
for gradual development of this system early next week while it
moves slowly west-northwestward off the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Quoting 93. DeepSeaRising:

End of the world Sar? Come on, so dramatic. Huge regional conflict in the Middle East with WW with Russia and Iran pushing the brink; destabilizing happening in Libya, Lebanon, and others. Luckily Yemen is doing great! No hot war between Iran and Saudi Arabia there. Everything's fine. Israel and Palestine are fine, gonna make some shirts like that. No moral collapse in the West. No this is change we can believe in. Vices can be a great scrabble word. Fifty percent of Americans roughly believe in AGW, that's not a problem! That's progress! This is not the TREX El-Nino, not even the strongest ever, top three but we've seen worse. We'll fix things, things will get better. Won't they?
Sounds like the end of the world again. Things are always bad somewhere, people are always killing one another somewhere. I know you understand history, so just looking at the period from 1939 to 1945, when somewhere between 50 and 80 million people died, there was a lot of apocalyptic writing then too. Estimates are that 150 to 165 million died in the wars and oppressions of the 20th century. Somehow, humanity survived and generally prospered. If the world could rise from the ashes of the 20th century, we have a chance to beat the challenges of the 21st century.
Quoting 108. hurricanewatcher61:

Ok, somebody enlighten me here, what that heck is up with the GFS 18Z run. Looks like the low in the Gulf or potential storm goes inland around NO, drops back down, loops a little, another Low appears. Am I looking at this wrong?
The 18z usually is like that....
Quoting 115. DeepSeaRising:



What say ye Mr. Patrap? Thinking NHC drops out yellow circle tomorrow afternoon likely on this potential Gulf system. Potential is there, will it get far enough North to conditionally develop or will it get dragged East sooner and die? Think this place will be hopping Friday onward as Sar's peeps, the Floridians, return to doom cast him into insanity.
The NHC folks will be thinking about what they are going to do for the weekend tomorrow. Diurnal convection on a broad trough with a 1035 monster high over the eastern US will not upset their plans in the least.
Quoting 111. Grothar:


Anyone other than me paying close attention to that ULL after what Joaquin did???
Quoting 115. DeepSeaRising:



What say ye Mr. Patrap? Thinking NHC drops out yellow circle tomorrow afternoon likely on this potential Gulf system. Potential is there, will it get far enough North to conditionally develop or will it get dragged East sooner and die? Think this place will be hopping Friday onward as Sar's peeps, the Floridians, return to doom cast him into insanity.
either way... its going to be nothing but rain and windy conditions where I live for the next 6 days.....
Quoting 108. hurricanewatcher61:

Ok, somebody enlighten me here, what that heck is up with the GFS 18Z run. Looks like the low in the Gulf or potential storm goes inland around NO, drops back down, loops a little, another Low appears. Am I looking at this wrong?
It's just electrons. Ignore it until you see a yellow X appear from the NHC. No model out that far makes sense.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
413 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GPS MET DATA SHOWS QUITE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. PW AT MIAMI IS CURRENTLY 1.9 INCHES, AT NAPLES 1.3
INCHES, AND ONLY 1.1 INCHES AT OKEECHOBEE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY WAVERING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE CONSENSUS SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD DRIFT TO THE MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OCCURS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A STRONG HIGH CENTER BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT PRESENTS A CHALLENGING
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES. GIVEN THE TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 36 HR...HAVE FAVORED A SLIGHTLY DRIER SCENARIO SO
ADJUSTED CONSENSUS POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
FAVORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...TRENDING MUCH
LOWER TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE
MARGINAL...SO MORE SHOWERS THAN TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH A FEW
TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...A WIND SURGE WILL BE MOVING DOWN
THE COAST BEHIND A PSUEDO-COLD FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY INCREASES DUE TO THE HIGH CENTER MOVING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH CONTINUED LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WIND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTHWARD AS THIS
HAPPENS...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE WIND SURGE LIKELY
WILL LEAD TO FAST MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THE
ATLANTIC COAST BUT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND BY TUE-WED AS
DRIER AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED
SOUTH TO THE FL STRAITS/CARIB.

NO DOUBT AS THE WINDS PICK UP SUN-MON THAT RIP CURRENTS WILL
BECOME A HIGH RISK...AND MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. /GREGORIA
Right, doesn't make any sense at all.
Quoting 123. sar2401:

It's just electrons. Ignore it until you see a yellow X appear from the NHC. No model out that far makes sense.
Quoting 122. DeepSeaRising:



Now that's some Pollyanna backed by history optimism that does have the ring of truth to it brother. You are the bane of my existence some day's Sar. :) Good thought man!
LOL. Sorry, don't mean to be the bane of your existence. :-) I was thinking, what if I was alive in 1900, and what if we had the Magic 8 Ball then. I asked the Ball what would happen in the new century, and it told me at least 150 million people would die in wars and oppression. This was when the global population was about 1.5 billion, so 10% of them were going to die terribly. What would I do? Probably curl up in the fetal position until I starved to death. I've just never found a dark outlook on the future of civilization does a lot of good when it comes to getting people to act positively.
Quoting 98. DeepSeaRising:



I really needed that good laugh. I'm a fan Camerooski and whimsically wish for your youth and enthusiasm as increased knowledge has led to increased consternation for me in a world in trouble. Best laugh I've had in awhile here.


Me too, he's smart, funny and enthusiastic... I hope he never loses his "wonder" We have a 3 year old Grand Niece living with us.. joy of my life.. the advocacy I do, the difference I try hard to make is no longer for me, it is for those like her.. and Cam, heck my own Son is twice his age... soon, in so many ways the corruption, poisoning and pollution will be irreversible in a single lifetime.

I remember that freeze.. I was supposed to do an "in period" living history presentation as my GG Grandfather, and my pioneer clothes were not warm enough... We almost witnessed a sailboat pile up on the rocks coming out of the sea fog, he turned in time, but it was close enough to hear them... we were at Gilbert's Bar #2 House of Refuge on the beach.
Quoting 120. Camerooski:

Anyone other than me paying close attention to that ULL after what Joaquin did???
How long did it take for the ULL to become Joaquin? I have a short attention span. :-)
Quoting 120. Camerooski:

Anyone other than me paying close attention to that ULL after what Joaquin did???



We should deploy a Drone...just in case.





It could be a "trap".




Quoting 128. sar2401:

How long did it take for the ULL to become Joaquin? I have a short attention span. :-)
9 days
Quoting 121. Camerooski:

either way... its going to be nothing but rain and windy conditions where I live for the next 6 days.....
Doesn't really crank up until Sunday night. Enjoy the weeknd, it will be nice.
Quoting 130. Camerooski:

9 days
I'll start paying attention in about 8 days then...
Quoting 123. sar2401:

It's just electrons. Ignore it until you see a yellow X appear from the NHC. No model out that far makes sense.
I get the feeling that Sar is becoming a bit worried
Koppu looks like a huge Typhoon blob.
Quoting 131. sar2401:

Doesn't really crank up until Sunday night. Enjoy the weeknd, it will be nice.


Well, forecast calls for an inch of rain where I am for tomorrow. Could be busted, but he has a point.
Quoting 135. Grothar:




You are the vengence, you are the night, you are...blob man!
Quoting 108. hurricanewatcher61:

Ok, somebody enlighten me here, what that heck is up with the GFS 18Z run. Looks like the low in the Gulf or potential storm goes inland around NO, drops back down, loops a little, another Low appears. Am I looking at this wrong?


It didn't take it's meds today as it does on most days, those mid day med times are tricky.
Quoting 135. Grothar:




Breast Cancer Awareness Storm colors Gro........you are scoring points! Keep up the good work!
Quoting 134. SouthFLwxfreak101:

Koppu looks like a huge Typhoon blob.


Have you confirmed this with the Senior Blobologist?
Quoting 133. Camerooski:

I get the feeling that Sar is becoming a bit worried


Do not know if that was supposed to be funny--but it sure gave me a good laugh.
Quoting 139. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Breast Cancer Awareness Storm colors Gro........you are scoring points! Keep up the good work!



Are we looking at a repeat of 1985's Hurricane Juan? Wouldn't worry 'bout it, but that storm, if I recall did give SE Texas quite a blast of wind.
Quoting 135. Grothar:


So we are going to be attacked by an evil mass of cotton candy.!?....will shutters even help..?
Quoting 133. Camerooski:

I get the feeling that Sar is becoming a bit worried
Yes, I am. I have to renew my homeowner's insurance, and I'm trying to decide between two bids, but they both have different limits and coverage. It's really confusing trying to...oh, wait, you mean the electrons. No, not worried about those yet. :-)
Fired up? Ready to go? Cuba maybe getting wet? You think?



Some satellite loops fool one sometimes.

Quoting 144. wunderkidcayman:



Woah hold your horses
I would go that for just yet I'm gonna need much more evidence first before going gun Ho
And mate chill out will ya you are worse than a 5 year old on a strict diet of candies and sodas


You guys are cracking me up tonight.
Quoting 146. sar2401:

Yes, I am. I have to renew my homeowner's insurance, and I'm trying to decide between two bids, but they both have different limits and coverage. It's really confusing trying to...oh, wait, you mean the electrons. No, not worried about those yet. :-)


I never worry about anything any longer......esp after meds time!
Quoting 117. sar2401:

Sounds like the end of the world again. Things are always bad somewhere, people are always killing one another somewhere. I know you understand history, so just looking at the period from 1939 to 1945, when somewhere between 50 and 80 million people died, there was a lot of apocalyptic writing then too. Estimates are that 150 to 165 million died in the wars and oppressions of the 20th century. Somehow, humanity survived and generally prospered. If the world could rise from the ashes of the 20th century, we have a chance to beat the challenges of the 21st century.


The whole point of the great changes we are about to experience is to have an opportunity to restart. Yes there will be turmoil but that is what is needed to restart the civilization in a different manner. Birth or rebirth is not without pain and effort but can be rewarding.

For those who live through it.


Finally getting a few passing showers thankfully! :)
Quoting 151. stormpetrol:


Finally getting a few passing showers thankfully! :)


Rain is GOOD!
Quoting 150. wxwatcher9:



The whole point of the great changes we are about to experience is to have an opportunity to restart. Yes there will be turmoil but that is what is needed to restart the civilization in a different manner. Birth or rebirth is not without pain and effort but can be rewarding.

For those who live through it.




It's The End Of The World As We Know It And I Feel Fine- M Stipe,M Mills, Peter Buck 1987
Link
Quoting 140. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Have you confirmed this with the Senior Blobologist?
Sorry,Gro is on vacation until next hurricane season.
Quoting 147. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Fired up? Ready to go? Cuba maybe getting wet? You think?



Some satellite loops fool one sometimes.


About 75% of what's on the the good old Rainbow view is high clouds. I can't tell you the number of times I looked at it when it was over Alabama and it looked like we were getting blasted, even though nary a drop of rain was falling.
Quoting 135. Grothar:




Quoting 146. sar2401:

Yes, I am. I have to renew my homeowner's insurance, and I'm trying to decide between two bids, but they both have different limits and coverage. It's really confusing trying to...oh, wait, you mean the electrons. No, not worried about those yet. :-)


My buddy in Estero,FL says his goes up every year! No claims whatsoever! Seems it just goes up regardless and no canes for several years......he's about 1.3 miles east of Estero Bay and 3.75 miles from GOM........but with a mortgage I guess it is required to have..........major bummer it keeps going up and up! On the other hand, not having it is a major bummer not having it when the dreaded Cape Verde storm shows up.
Fodder for wishcasters and doomcasters...

That Caribbean low north of me up from the Panama-Costa Rica border is developing some spin at 850hPa

LINK
Nigeria: Snakes Invade Plateau Communities, Bite 50

Rich nations to Third World: "Climate change. Very dangerous. You go first."

Just submitted my application to North Carolina State. We'll see how this goes.

In the meantime, it's beginning to look a lot like fall (finally)!

Good luck Cody!
Wow! Some torrential rain is falling here!
Quoting 171. BahaHurican:

Wow! Some torrential rain is falling here!
Quoting 171. BahaHurican:

Wow! Some torrential rain is falling here!


You all can use it? Yes?
Quoting 169. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just submitted my application to North Carolina State. We'll see how this goes.

In the meantime, it's beginning to look a lot like fall (finally)!




Good Luck TA 13!
Quoting 169. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just submitted my application to North Carolina State. We'll see how this goes.

In the meantime, it's beginning to look a lot like fall (finally)!


Good luck
Seems like a huge cyclonic circulation.....
California stormin' on such an autumn's day.



Quoting 156. sar2401:

About 75% of what's on the the good old Rainbow view is high clouds. I can't tell you the number of times I looked at it when it was over Alabama and it looked like we were getting blasted, even though nary a drop of rain was falling.

I understand the feeling in 2010 in rainbow view it looked lik Matthew was delivering us a lot of rain when not an inch fell down in here.
This is not, CNN.

: P
Quoting 182. Patrap:


I see a lot of moisture... and all that moisture is headed right for me!!!!
Quoting 183. Patrap:

This is not, CNN.

: P
No its Fox News (Fair and Balanced) :p
Quoting 173. HurricaneHunterJoe:



You all can use it? Yes?
This is one of the wettest Octobers we've had in a while... I'm watching to see if the trend continues into November.
Quoting 183. Patrap:

This is not, CNN.

: P


It ain't PBS either!
Please, people. This is a science-friendly weather blog. I'm more than happy to read global warming denier nonsense because it keeps you thinking. Plus it's relevant.

But the partisan political stuff, especially the relatively mindless labeling and namecalling, is unhelpful. It also threatens this blog's legitimacy. There are countless places where you can simplistically attack liberals or whatever. Please don't do it here.
Beaumont, TX, AFD:

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AS
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.

THE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY CLOSE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS ON HOW THINGS
MIGHT EVOLVE...BUT SOMEWHAT DIVERGED WITH THIS MORNINGS MODEL
RUNS. WILL SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IF THE SLOWER ECMWF IS
CORRECT...ACTIVITY MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL WENDESDAY.

Sounds like Hurricane Opal (1995) all over again. I mean, gulf lows combined with cold fronts do produce powerful TCs, don't they?
Quoting 167. BaltimoreBrian:

Nigeria: Snakes Invade Plateau Communities, Bite 50

Rich nations to Third World: "Climate change. Very dangerous. You go first."


Interesting. The politician seemed quite caring towards the snakes in his comments ....
TPW of 2.0-2.4" edging further north from Caribbean Sea. Juicy air will be in place, will the other ingredients come together to form a named storm?

Politics no, model doom YES!

Quoting 194. pureet1948:

Beaumont, TX, AFD:

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AS
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.

THE GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY CLOSE ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS ON HOW THINGS
MIGHT EVOLVE...BUT SOMEWHAT DIVERGED WITH THIS MORNINGS MODEL
RUNS. WILL SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IF THE SLOWER ECMWF IS
CORRECT...ACTIVITY MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL WENDESDAY.

Sounds like Hurricane Opal (1995) all over again. I mean, gulf lows combined with cold fronts do produce powerful TCs, don't they?
Hurricane Opal was not a Gulf low. It formed off an African wave when it hit the western Caribbean. Gulf lows and cold fronts can form hurricanes or nothing. Which happens is yet to be seen.
Quoting 177. BahaHurican:

Seems like a huge cyclonic circulation.....

It's a broad trough extending from Central America to way out in the Atlantic. With the strong ridge forming over the eastern US, the trough can't move north or south, so it's basically stuck for the next five days or so. It will be interesting to see how it affects our supposed tropical cyclone next week.
ECMWF is similar

Impactful:



Fiji Meteorological Services
==================

At 12:00 PM FST, Tropical Depression 02F (1003 hPa) located at 12.9S 177.5E is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Expect clockwise winds up to 35 knots within 90 to 150 NM away from the center in the southeastern sector
Quoting 164. Xulonn:

Fodder for wishcasters and doomcasters...

That Caribbean low north of me up from the Panama-Costa Rica border is developing some spin at 850hPa

LINK
That low will ride the monsoon trough out into the Pacific. It will probably become the next TD, soon to be hurricane off the coast of Mexico. This has been a persistent pattern this year, and it looks like it will continue. So far, Baja has been lucky.
We definitely need a storm to track in our own backyard unfortunately to get things back on track for the blog.
Quoting 188. BaltimoreBrian:


Just imagine you're this unfortunate family with such a heart rending story of a pet gone wild.
Quoting 205. BaltimoreBrian:

Impactful:




Yes indeed. Those typhoons will probably be a lot more impactful than our putative Gulf low.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TYPHOON LANDO
11:00 AM PhST October 16 2015
====================
Typhoon “LANDO” continues to gain strength as it moves towards Isabela- Aurora area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Lando [KOPPU] (972 hPa) located at 15.8N 127.0E or 585 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gustiness up to 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #2
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures.
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures.
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures.
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards.
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea ) 4.1-14.0m Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

Luzon Region
========
1. Aurora
2. Isabela

Signal Warning #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
---------------
1. Cagayan
2. Kalinga
3. Mt. Province
4. Ifugao
5. Benguet
6. Quirino
7. Nueva Vizcaya
8. Nueva Ecija Bulacan
9. Pampanga
10. Tarlac
11. Pangasinan
12. Rizal
13. Quezon incl. Polillo Island
14. Camarines Norte
15. Camarines Sur
16. Catanduanes


Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to intense within the 550 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisherfolk are advised not to venture out over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon, western seaboard of central Luzon and eastern seaboard of Visayas.

Possible areas to be raised to PSWS #1: La Union, Abra, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Zambales and Metro Manila.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
That is all:

Quoting 215. GatorWX:

That is all:




just gonna sit fester a bit
come up with rtn flow on backside of current cold high pressure
over my region eastward by sunday
rtn flow will be building back in and up
with it moisture and warmth surge northward eastern half north America
for a fall battle
Quoting 193. MaineGuy:

Please, people. This is a science-friendly weather blog. I'm more than happy to read global warming denier nonsense because it keeps you thinking. Plus it's relevant.
Really?
Quoting 210. sar2401:

Just imagine your this unfortunate family with such a heart rending story of a pet gone wild.
Snakes don't go wild. They are wild from day one.
What an odd meteorological couple of days, dry air and calm winds allowed for a massive variation between the high and the low temp the last couple days. Yesterday, it was 88 for the high, the morning I woke up up to the coolest morning off the Fall so far at 49, so a wore a long sleeve.

But by mid day it was off with the long sleeve we got back to a high 89, today. A 40 degree temp difference between the high and the low without air mass change is just crazy!
Quoting 218. bappit:

Snakes don't go wild. They are wild from day one.


Eh, some species have been bred in captivity long enough that one could argue they are aren't wild. I have a red snake that I've had for 12 years. and it was 3 years old when I got it. The snake has never once attempted to bite me, anyone else, or my other pets. It eats only it's prey.

Rat snakes typically already are mellow tempered and consistently so, and for that they make great pets. However, I think the fact that they are bred as common pets contributes. My guess is that if I had captured a wild one, I would have been bitten at least a few times after owning one for over 12 years.
Quoting 188. BaltimoreBrian:




Fox actually was more balanced way back in the day, or maybe I'm just suffering from forgetfulness. However, me and my entire family noticed that they went from at least attempting to be moderate to becoming the conservative version of msnbc.
Quoting 169. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just submitted my application to North Carolina State. We'll see how this goes.

In the meantime, it's beginning to look a lot like fall (finally)!




Good luck man!

One word of advice as a senior in meteorology, initially it seems like a long time coming in as a freshman, but after adjustment along with lots hard work, it goes by faster than expected.

I can already feel the nostalgia setting in as I just signed up for my my final set of undergraduate classes in the spring.
Quoting 221. Jedkins01:



Eh, some species have been bred in captivity long enough that one could argue they are aren't wild. I have a red snake that I've had for 12 years. and it was 3 years old when I got it. The snake has never once attempted to bite me, anyone else, or my other pets. It eats only it's prey.

Rat snakes typically already are mellow tempered and consistently so, and for that they make great pets. However, I think the fact that they are bred as common pets contributes. My guess is that if I had captured a wild one, I would have been bitten at least a few times after owning one for over 12 years.
Some snake species are more aggressive than others. Copperheads are aggressive, water moccasins less so. Regardless, the idea that they turn wild is absurd. They are just snakes.

Doesn't mean they can't be pets. Some people have pet rocks.

Fish ... I mean, pet fish.
Quoting 222. Jedkins01:



Fox actually was more balanced way back in the day, or maybe I'm just suffering from forgetfulness. However, me and my entire family noticed that they went from at least attempting to be moderate to becoming the conservative version of msnbc.
Sounds like early onset. Puts you in the Fox demographic. :)
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
311 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS.

WEAK FRONT ACROSS GULF FROM SANIBEL ISLAND AREA TO BROWNSVILLE
HAVE BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE
OVERNIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF
BASIN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT...WITH WIND TURNING MORE NLY
ACROSS SW PORTIONS AND DIVING THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC REGION WHERE
ONGOING GALE EVENT PERSISTS. MODEST RIDGE ACROSS GULF COAST
STATES WILL FRESHEN E-NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH
MIDDAY FRI...THEN RIDGE IS SQUASHED BY FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING AS
STRONG HIGH BUILDING S AND SE OUT OF GREAT LAKES REGION BLASTS
A SECOND FRONT INTO N COASTAL WATERS EARLY SAT MORNING AND BEGINS
TO FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENT ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. THIS TO COMBINE
WITH DEVELOPING MONSOONAL GYRE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA-YUCATAN-
TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND A PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH ALONG MEXICAN
COASTAL WATERS TO PRODUCE NEAR GALES OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ
BY SAT MORNING...INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO GALE FORCE AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT. SREF BEGINS TO SHOW LOW
PROBS FOR GALES THERE BY 12Z SAT WHILE GEFS NOT PICKING UP ON
IT...POSSIBLY DUE TO RESOLUTION LIMITATIONS. BROAD STRONG WIND
FIELD TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN MON-TUE FOR VERY HIGH
SEAS.

Looks like a bumpy ride for us in the Gomex oil patch....waiting to see if models try to develop anything from this....
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
18:00 PM FST October 16 2015
===========================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1002 hPa) located at 13.3S 177.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has not improved much in the past 24 hours. Convection remains persistent but detached from low level circulation center. The system lies in a moderate sheared environment and under an upper level ridge. Outflow good to the south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap yields DT=2.0, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked the system and move it south southwestwards with little intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 14.0S 176.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 15.3S 174.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 19.0S 171.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON KOPPU (1524)
15:00 PM JST October 16 2015
==============================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Koppu (955 hPa) located at 15.5N 126.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 15.8N 123.2E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.1N 121.2E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Overland Luzon
72 HRS: 17.2N 120.5E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland Luzon

Quoting 211. sar2401:

Yes indeed. Those typhoons will probably be a lot more impactful than our putative Gulf low.
This one will be really impactful, particularly because its projected to slow down shortly before landfall and recurving to the north while still over Luzon. The Storm s center might be over the mountainous Luzon for some 50 hours straight, so the rain totals from this one will be pretty amazing.
Good morning, blog, and --- Pablo, you're okay??? Was the storm below near your place?



Brasil: temporal deja 3 muertos y medio millón sin energía
15/10/2015 22:24; translated by google:
Three people were killed and nearly half a million remained without electrical service by the storm that punished tonight Rio Grande do Sul, the southernmost state in Brazil, firefighters reported.
The rain, exacerbated by winds up to 130 mph and a hailstorm, brought down several trees and numerous utility poles in Rio Grande do Sul state bordering Argentina and Uruguay. ...


NDRRMC on red alert over Typhoon Lando
(UPDATED) Typhoon Lando (Koppu) continues to gain strength as it moves towards the Aurora-Isabela area, said state weather bureau PAGASA on at 10 am Friday , October 16
MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) – The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (NDRRMC) placed its national operation center on red alert starting 12 noon Friday, October 16, as Typhoon Lando (international codename Koppu) continues to gain strength. (READ: Typhoon Lando gains strength; Signal No. 2 over Isabela, Aurora) ...



Koppu's eye still changing its shape.
If we can get these polar lows to stop traversing near the warm blob and causing upwelling, then a Strong High pressure Ridge can set up shop over the West. Because a warm mass of water lends tself to higher Geopotential Heights and High Pressure can set up shop over a region. If the High Pressure Ridge can build from Western Canada to the Pacific and East to just West of Hudson Bay, Then it's all systems go for the Est to get creamed this winter with snow. It will be skiers delight for me!! Also with El Nino conditions - this lends itself to enhance or strengthen the subtropical Jetstream or southern branch of the jet, whicg menas wild weather in the southeast, gulf coast and Florida. Gonna be Awesome!!
237. beell
Quoting 235. Grothar:




I think the arrow is pointing the wrong way on that graphic, Gro. It has not rained in SE TX in over a month! The approach of a mid-level trough from the desert SW should finally break the pattern and pull the monsoonal moisture pooling south of the frontal boundary in the BOC and EPAC to the north-towards TX. The trough's strength and track will be the key. Also, pretty strong modeled ridging in place over the SE US and Gulf which may allow the trough to lift to the north.

See what you can do...


Quoting 237. beell:



I think the arrow is pointing the wrong way on that graphic, Gro. It has not rained in SE TX in over a month! The approach of a mid-level trough from the desert SW should finally break the pattern and pull the monsoonal moisture pooling south of the frontal boundary in the BOC and EPAC to the north-towards TX. The trough's strength and track will be the key. Also, pretty strong modeled ridging in place over the SE US and Gulf which may allow the trough to lift to the north.

See what you can do...





I must be slipping, beel. I'll try to move the arrows to make everything look better. :)
Quoting 237. beell:



I think the arrow is pointing the wrong way on that graphic, Gro. It has not rained in SE TX in over a month! The approach of a mid-level trough from the desert SW should finally break the pattern and pull the monsoonal moisture pooling south of the frontal boundary in the BOC and EPAC to the north-towards TX. The trough's strength and track will be the key. Also, pretty strong modeled ridging in place over the SE US and Gulf which may allow the trough to lift to the north.

See what you can do...



Texas won't be hit, it will be anywhere from SW FL to Biloxi MS
242. beell
Quoting 239. Camerooski:

Texas won't be hit, it will be anywhere from SW FL to Biloxi MS


Alright, you're on! Loser pledges a 72 hr self-imposed ban from the comments section of this blog!
:)
243. beell
Come on, Cam...I'm waiting...
:-P
244. MahFL
Earliest siting of a Bewick Swan in the UK, could be a sign of a cold winter in Russia.
Good Morning.
Major mud-slide in California.
I guess they are getting the rain they need, but not in the quantities they want.

Nice bright morning here, with birdsong.
I'm watching the little (soon to be?) warm cored storm in the East Atlantic (see post #36) which is now approaching the island of Madeira (high weather alert down there). Below you can see it in the lower left corner:


Source for updates.

Latest UKMET phase diagram:



Satellite loop.
Unfortunately no weather radar on Madeira. And the system won't live long enough to become an invest of NHC, I'm afraid.
Quoting 224. bappit:

Some snake species are more aggressive than others. Copperheads are aggressive, water moccasins less so. Regardless, the idea that they turn wild is absurd. They are just snakes.

Doesn't mean they can't be pets. Some people have pet rocks.

Different species of rat snake have different temperaments...red rats or "corn" snakes are by nature incredibly tame and unlikely to ever bite. Their cousins, the yellow rat snake, is quite the opposite and pretty much cannot be handled without risk of a bite. Captive or not does not seem to make a difference.


Fish ... I mean, pet fish.
Complex situation next week across the Western Gulf. BTW I give up looking @ the GFS anymore beel. With that said the Euro has what appears to be the same type of situation that flooded South Carolina except this time its SE Texas.

2 main players here and that is a tropical system in the Western Gulf which the Euro and most ensembles from both the Euro and GFS move this system NE. However the second player is a upper low over Western Texas which will funnel deep tropical moisture NW into SE Texas. Very similar to the synoptic set up we had with Joaquin.

Quoting 235. Grothar:




That is what pretty much all the ensembles from both the GFS & Euro show. Euro operational is right on that track Gro.
FL DOOM!
Quoting 245. pottery:

Good Morning.
Major mud-slide in California.
I guess they are getting the rain they need, but not in the quantities they want.

Nice bright morning here, with birdsong.

Good morning, Pottery, and indeed:



This keeps getting pushed back a week. Unless that is an entirely different system.
Quoting 251. Camerooski:

FL DOOM!
Quoting 253. SecretStormNerd:

This keeps getting pushed back a week. Unless that is an entirely different system.
Different
The hubby works in Indianapolis and his Florida blood is not looking forward to this.
Quoting 234. Grothar:


Coming from this east this time of the year? Not so sure about that. Although, stranger things have happend.
Quoting 254. Camerooski:

Different
Quoting 237. beell:



I think the arrow is pointing the wrong way on that graphic, Gro. It has not rained in SE TX in over a month! The approach of a mid-level trough from the desert SW should finally break the pattern and pull the monsoonal moisture pooling south of the frontal boundary in the BOC and EPAC to the north-towards TX. The trough's strength and track will be the key. Also, pretty strong modeled ridging in place over the SE US and Gulf which may allow the trough to lift to the north.

See what you can do...





Well if you believe the GFS then what you show is correct. However this looks awfully similar to the GFS bust with Joaquin and the Euro yet again is not agreeing with the GFS here. Euro has the upper low in the same place as the GFS tropical system forms in Western Gulf which is the same as the GFS. What's different though is stronger toughing to the north which creates a westerly exit jet near the northern Gulf Coast. Literally same as Joaquin.

Now your rain prospects no matter what happens with this potential tropical system is irrelevant as there is going to be a deep fetch of tropical moisture flowing from this tropical system toward the upper low to its west. This could be a high impact rain situation for SE Texas.
It seems as if MJO will be bringing 2 storms. Says all global models. Models have been showing this for the past week or so.
Quoting 259. tiggerhurricanes2001:

It seems as if MJO will be bringing 2 storms. Says all global models. Models have been showing this for the past week or so.


Complicated set up yet again. A tropical system if it were to form near Bermuda would pump a ridge into FL keeping us dry however a weaker system near Bermuda moving North as the Euro shows would cause this Gulf system to head for the Northern Gulf Coast from LA to the FL Panhandle.
261. beell
10/16 00Z ECMWF 2 m (i think) winds @ 180 hrs


262. MahFL
This am was a nice cool 58F here in Orange Park, it's humid though at 78%.
Quoting 242. beell:



Alright, you're on! Loser pledges a 72 hr self-imposed ban from the comments section of this blog!
:)


Would have preferred an old fashioned WWF "Loser Leaves Town Match", but I guess this has to do for now! ;-]
264. beell
Quoting 263. tropicofcancer:



Would have preferred an old fashion WWF "Loser Leaves Town Match", but I guess this has to do for now! ;-]



I don't have much to lose! 72 hrs between my posts here might not be considered anomalous.
;-)
TD-19 Taking it's sweet old time.
Koppu seems to get it's act together at the wrong time for the Philippines

Latest frames show eye appearing,



Quoting 261. beell:

10/16 00Z ECMWF 2 m (i think) winds @ 180 hrs






Very simialr to what we had Joaquin except you guys may be the South Carolina. Get ready beel.
So let me get this out, even tho with all the cold fronts coming to the southeast with cool dry air, the models still having a storm in the central gulf? I don't think so. I believe that there could be a some such of a storm develop but only to go towards Mexico or Texas. I just can't see it riding up the north gulf coast but I could be wrong and maybe I am. I wish that thing would hit here in Alabama so we can get some rain off of it. I'm ready for snow/ice storms
Quoting 268. Accu35blog:

So let me get this out, even tho with all the cold fronts coming to the southeast with cool dry air, the models still having a storm in the central gulf? I don't think so. I believe that there could be a some such of a storm develop but only to go towards Mexico or Texas. I just can't see it riding up the north gulf coast but I could be wrong and maybe I am. I wish that thing would hit here in Alabama so we can get some rain off of it. I'm ready for snow/ice storms



As we get into November the pattern across the US is just going to get more chaotic as the southern jet starts to take hold of the weather patterns across the US due to Super El-Nino. I couldn't be more satisfied with trying to explain to people back in January that this was coming and now its here. It was me against pretty much every member on this blog back then. Maybe 2 or 3 had more back but that's it.
As we get into November the pattern across the US is just going to get more chaotic as the southern jet starts to take hold of the weather patterns across the US due to Super El-Nino. I couldn't be more satisfied with trying to explain to people back in January that this was coming and now its here. It was me against pretty much every member on this blog back then. Maybe 2 or 3 had more back but that's it.


scotty...you've been promoting that southern jet as gonna be here in any minute since last spring....good to see you're now expecting the dynamics in their proper timing......

you guys have fun....i'm off to enjoy cool weather after another week where two high records were either tied or beaten
Quoting 269. StormTrackerScott:




As we get into November the pattern across the US is just going to get more chaotic as the southern jet starts to take hold of the weather patterns across the US due to Super El-Nino. I couldn't be more satisfied with trying to explain to people back in January that this was coming and now its here. It was me against pretty much every member on this blog back then. Maybe 2 or 3 had more back but that's it.


You mean January of 2014. Lol...
Quoting 270. ricderr:

As we get into November the pattern across the US is just going to get more chaotic as the southern jet starts to take hold of the weather patterns across the US due to Super El-Nino. I couldn't be more satisfied with trying to explain to people back in January that this was coming and now its here. It was me against pretty much every member on this blog back then. Maybe 2 or 3 had more back but that's it.


scotty...you've been promoting that southern jet as gonna be here in any minute since last spring....good to see you're now expecting the dynamics in their proper timing......

you guys have fun....i'm off to enjoy cool weather after another week where two high records were either tied or beaten


How about that AEI of 4.85 sigma. Just a matter of time ric.
Quoting 251. Camerooski:

FL DOOM!

Camerooski if this scenario takes place YOU AND I ARE GOING TO BE RIDERS ON THE STORM. WE WILL CHASE, OBSERVE AND MEASURE!! Our Hurricane Chase club is called RIDERS ON THE STORM. If you don't like it let me know
275. MahFL
Quoting 268. Accu35blog:

So let me get this out, even tho with all the cold fronts coming to the southeast with cool dry air, the models still having a storm in the central gulf?


I am in NE FL and the air is not dry, humidity is at 74 % right now. It's cooler though, 68F.
My neighbor asked me the other day what if we get to 450 - 500 ppm CO2? I said we are in uncharted territory now with 402ppm CO2. I suspect these numbers will rise significantl with the Millions of acres burned in the Country this year, in addition to worldwide fires and acreage burned. I know Dr. Henson and Dr. Masters wrote an article on peatland fires in Indonesia. as well as potential peatland being burned in Northern Canada, Alaska and Siberia. Peat is orhganic soil and is mostly composed entirely of CARBON. So Peat burning is akin to having a hose attached to a CARBON source and spraying it into the atmosphere. So since CO2 is a heat trapping gas, and even though it makes up .04% of the composition of the atmosphere, any more u add to a closed system like our atmosphere will make the weather and climate that much more entertaining. Energy in the form of heat added to our atmosphere will lead to extremes like 1 - 1000 year floods more frequently, severity of drought, tropical cyclones more intense. I am preaching to the choir but just in case my neighbor is on wunderground, he knows my handle. Scott, rider, camerooski sar, whats the over/under 450ppm by 2025?
Quoting 273. StormTrackerScott:



How about that AEI of 4.85 sigma. Just a matter of time ric.

Some forecasters are saying the 97-98 El Nino is stronger than this one. If we can get 4- 5 Standard Deviations from the mean SSTs then we have an arguement that is current El Nino is KING KONG of all NINOs
278. vis0

Quoting 117. sar2401:

Sounds like the end of the world again. Things are always bad somewhere, people are always killing one another somewhere. I know you understand history, so just looking at the period from 1939 to 1945, when somewhere between 50 and 80 million people died, there was a lot of apocalyptic writing then too. Estimates are that 150 to 165 million died in the wars and oppressions of the 20th century. Somehow, humanity survived and generally prospered. If the world could rise from the ashes of the 20th century, we have a chance to beat the challenges of the 21st century.

optimistic:: i know your right sar2401, NOW LETS GET TO IT!!!

pessimist:: how can it, in the 20th century people had common enemies during major wars. The enemy today is each one of us and till each one of us (or a healthy percentage) figures that Nature is not our enemy and does that figuring out by balancing ones selfish & selfless thoughts humans are going to be some other planet's anthropologist findings.

optometrist:: i don't see i to i , where are my glasses.

pharmacist:: just keep taking 2 of those, 3 of these, 1 of that, 2 of them and 3 of the next  ...so you can be cured of humanity?

MamaNana:: Why do humans treat me like an enemy, i clean , i provide, i supply i... i... i..., geesh,.

T@Z:: i just got dee ipod 3D version wid virchewale spill chk in case la nino busts ouch.

vis0:: don't forget sar2401 to stock on plywood (& Elmers® glue...the yellow version) before...


yellow watch
grey statement



First lake effect flurries of the season late tonight into Saturday.

A cold air mass will move into Southern Ontario tonight and last through the weekend. For areas to the southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, rain showers are expected to transition to flurries late tonight and continue into Saturday.

At this point, it appears that some snowfall accumulation is likely. Several centimetres of wet snow are anticipated overnight and continuing into Saturday. Exactly how much snow will fall remains difficult to determine at this moment as the placement of the heaviest lake effect snow bands is still uncertain. Should the snow bands remain over a particular location for an extended period, local snowfall amounts could reach 15 cm by Saturday afternoon. Snow squall watches have been issued for areas where 15 cm of snow is possible.

Reduced visibility in bursts of heavier flurries is also possible.

For areas immediately along the lakeshore, accumulations should be less as temperatures there will be a few degrees warmer due to the relatively warm lakes.

The lake effect flurries should slowly wind down on Sunday.

People who will be travelling in these regions are advised to monitor future forecasts as more information becomes available. Snow squall warnings may be required as the event draws nearer.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.
Quoting 251. Camerooski:

FL DOOM!
so now you into NOVEMBER 384 hour! Time for the IGNORE DESIGNATION!
Today in extreme S Florida we're going to need a bigger boat!



A little bit greener
Beware the Neutercane in late 'October
284. vis0

Quoting 159. HurricaneHunterJoe:



My buddy in Estero,FL says his goes up every year! No claims whatsoever! Seems it just goes up regardless and no canes for several years......he's about 1.3 miles east of Estero Bay and 3.75 miles from GOM........but with a mortgage I guess it is required to have..........major bummer it keeps going up and up! On the other hand, not having it is a major bummer not having it when the dreaded Cape Verde storm shows up.
i see trouble...like with Sandy and that "oh it was not a Hurricane...water came from this direction not that"
As long as the water came from nature not ones tub overflowing its storm related in my (wet) book or when did it when it touched land loop hole (it on Earth, not Mars its the same common land).

With the warmer waters and this upcoming ENSO-e energy having the opportunity to spin up some hybrids, hope Floridians talk to their Political Reps to make sure if a Hybrid hits home that its just as if any ROTATING LOW with rain and winds.

If you create to scale in a LAB a CAT1 storm wind damage and a Nor'Easter with 85 mph wind damage both with rainfall ON THE SAME STRUCTURE FROM THE SAME ANGLE guess what? Its the same d@mage with the same people having to wait for the reply from what seems like a cold core system...insurance companies.

Someone should go to the senate floor with 2 big fans of the exact same model and when Insurance company reps (IC reps) start to give their point of view flip each fans name tags over (one reads Hurricane other reads Nor'easter) flip both fans ON and watch the papers faaaaah-lyyyyieyyyyyyyy.   When the IC (as in icy heart) reps want some time to get their papers in order and do so after 1 hr, ask them how long should people wait to get their homes in order.

Sure not all reps are cold, they are just doing their job BUT when so much money is being robbed paid by the public and earning interest why the disingenuous style.
Quoting 269. StormTrackerScott:




As we get into November the pattern across the US is just going to get more chaotic as the southern jet starts to take hold of the weather patterns across the US due to Super El-Nino. I couldn't be more satisfied with trying to explain to people back in January that this was coming and now its here. It was me against pretty much every member on this blog back then. Maybe 2 or 3 had more back but that's it.
thanks man
STS, does your ego sleep with you or does it have a separate bed all to itself ?

tia'

: P




Typical october day
lake effect grabbing hold now just up and over superior and the u-p
heading south and east today and tonight

Quoting 193. MaineGuy:

Please, people. This is a science-friendly weather blog. I'm more than happy to read global warming denier nonsense because it keeps you thinking. Plus it's relevant.

But the partisan political stuff, especially the relatively mindless labeling and namecalling, is unhelpful. It also threatens this blog's legitimacy. There are countless places where you can simplistically attack liberals or whatever. Please don't do it here.


We don't have liberals in this country. Live in Europe for a while. There they have real conservatives and real liberals.

Here in the land of make believe, we have an artificially created dichotomy between the right and the far right fueled and controlled by a plutocracy that uses the media as a circus to trump up wedge issues to play the unwashed masses like fiddle. On rare occasions we get someone who could be consider "centrist", but they usually get labeled as a "communist" or "socialist" in this country (such as Sanders) . That label in this country is about as meaningful as "cooties", since the vast majority of Americans have no idea what communism or socialism really is. Hence, we get those idiotic interviews with people standing in front of a public school on a public road next to a public police station saying "We don't take kindly to no socialist here!".

Regardless, I doubt any candidate is going to boost spending for science related organizations. For a single day of costs of our international ventures, we could fund and fly a fleet of hurricane hunter UAV's or develop and deploy large scale oceanic monitoring equipment, or build the next Kepler telescope, or maybe do something about our technological infrastructure so we aren't getting our collective butts kicked so bad in comparison to other developed nations.

We get what we vote for.
Looks like a severe weather and tornado threat Monday for NE,TX,Ok and MO
291. SLU
Quoting 282. CaribBoy:



A little bit greener


Will be very green by MAM 2016.



Quoting 291. SLU:



Will be very green by MAM 2016.




Still showing the el nino but that is a very impressive SST setup for the atlantic.
Quoting 291. SLU:



Will be very green by MAM 2016.




Yep, I really hope so and to say the truth I'm already excited about those rain forecast for next year...

2016 can't be worse than 2015 rain wise anyway lol
Quoting 274. WeatherConvoy:


Camerooski if this scenario takes place YOU AND I ARE GOING TO BE RIDERS ON THE STORM. WE WILL CHASE, OBSERVE AND MEASURE!! Our Hurricane Chase club is called RIDERS ON THE STORM. If you don't like it let me know


Like a dog without a bone, an actor out on loan, riders on the storm.


May look like this again next year :))
itsa mojo rising'

299. SLU
Quoting 292. Gearsts:

Still showing the el nino but that is a very impressive SST setup for the atlantic.
Quoting 294. CaribBoy:



Yep, I really hope so and to say the truth I'm already excited about those rain forecast for next year...

2016 can't be worse than 2015 rain wise anyway lol


Yes, 2016 will be a very exciting year for weather enthusiasts
Quoting 277. WeatherConvoy:


Some forecasters are saying the 97-98 El Nino is stronger than this one. If we can get 4- 5 Standard Deviations from the mean SSTs then we have an arguement that is current El Nino is KING KONG of all NINOs


There was one in the 1880s that is believed to have been by far stronger than any in the 20'th century.

Quoting 297. Patrap:

itsa mojo rising'




Hello,my apologies for my ignorance! what is MOJO?, thanks!.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 17m17 minutes ago
#Champi is the 18th typhoon of the NW Pacific season, the most since 1997 (also 18 typhoons by 10/16).
Quoting 286. Patrap:

STS, does your ego sleep with you or does it have a separate bed all to itself ?

tia'

: P


Crickets...
Quoting 286. Patrap:

STS, does your ego sleep with you or does it have a separate bed all to itself ?

tia'

: P
Different BEDS? Heck...different ZIP CODES.
Quoting 269. StormTrackerScott:




As we get into November the pattern across the US is just going to get more chaotic as the southern jet starts to take hold of the weather patterns across the US due to Super El-Nino. I couldn't be more satisfied with trying to explain to people back in January that this was coming and now its here. It was me against pretty much every member on this blog back then. Maybe 2 or 3 had more back but that's it.


It is very human and enormously pleasurable to say "I told you so". (refering to a prominent someone else's forecast.. I don't play the long term odds much)


Now in DC I just need to figure what's in the cards for this winter/early spring. The signal is not as strong here as further south and northwest. 1997-98 was virtually snowless (2mm seasonal accumulation) but very wet. Mountain locations at high elevation to our west and southwest had a record snowy winter. 1982-3 produced a few small snows and one huge well publicized dump. 1972-3 was also virtually snowless. 1957-58, was cold and snowy in DC and incredibly cold and miserable for the Florida Peninsula.
(Extreme March rains in Oakland also destroyed my parents house in a mudslide four days before I was born.._

Planning for a wet winter here and making sure the backup sump pumps work. In 1997-98 you could have stocked trout downstream of my sump pump discharge.
Both the gfs and euro showing the first big rain event for PR.

Erika doesn't count.
Quoting 269. StormTrackerScott:




As we get into November the pattern across the US is just going to get more chaotic as the southern jet starts to take hold of the weather patterns across the US due to Super El-Nino. I couldn't be more satisfied with trying to explain to people back in January that this was coming and now its here. It was me against pretty much every member on this blog back then. Maybe 2 or 3 had more back but that's it.


Dude...I like your comments and research, but no scientist worth anything would say they could predict El Nino that far out. The science just isn't there. There were some indicators of possibility, but nothing certain. And really, you've been predicting an El Nino event each of the last few years. I suppose eventually you would get it right.

I like you, but you start losing me with these self-focused comments.
Quoting 301. Hurricane1956:



Hello,my apologies for my ignorance! what is MOJO?, thanks!.


The Doors.

Quoting 299. SLU:



Yes, 2016 will be a very exciting year for weather enthusiasts


Like 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, .. .. ..
Quoting 308. fmbill:



Dude...I like your comments and research, but no scientist worth anything would say they could predict El Nino that far out. The science just isn't there. There were some indicators of possibility, but nothing certain. And really, you've been predicting an El Nino event each of the last few years. I suppose eventually you would get it right.

I like you, but you start losing me with these self-focused comments.


I've said before STS catches more stuff than verifies but he also captures potential for extremes that I tend to miss so I appreciate his posts.
Quoting 308. fmbill:



Dude...I like your comments and research, but no scientist worth anything would say they could predict El Nino that far out. The science just isn't there. There were some indicators of possibility, but nothing certain. And really, you've been predicting an El Nino event each of the last few years. I suppose eventually you would get it right.

I like you, but you start losing me with these self-focused comments.
He was quoting someone else who said that. Ricderr I think.
Does anyone have a Webcam form the East Coast of Luzon, Philippines???!?!
Quoting 299. SLU:



Yes, 2016 will be a very exciting year for weather enthusiasts
Just got to wait and see what next year brings.
Quoting 314. Climate175:

Just got to wait and see what next year brings.
Let us have the fun.
Quoting 263. tropicofcancer:



Would have preferred an old fashioned WWF "Loser Leaves Town Match", but I guess this has to do for now! ;-]
Looks like your both losers, if it hits Texas they lose, vice versa.
Quoting 269. StormTrackerScott:




As we get into November the pattern across the US is just going to get more chaotic as the southern jet starts to take hold of the weather patterns across the US due to Super El-Nino. I couldn't be more satisfied with trying to explain to people back in January that this was coming and now its here. It was me against pretty much every member on this blog back then. Maybe 2 or 3 had more back but that's it.
I remember you explaining numerous details in the overall synoptic patterns that indicated we were in for a major El Niño event for the winter of '15-'16, as early as last winter. I'm quite sure that I did not argue about that with you because I know it seemed to make sense to me at the time. I think maybe some people complained that you were talking about events that would possibly transpire many months into the future but frankly, it wouldn't have made much sense back then for anyone to dispute that a major El Niño event was setting up for this upcoming winter. If anyone was arguing against the developing El Niño, maybe they were just upset because they were afraid this would mean fewer hurricanes and that was what was gnawing at them? It's possible
I told you so :):)

Quoting 311. georgevandenberghe:



I've said before STS catches more stuff than verifies but he also captures potential for extremes that I tend to miss so I appreciate his posts.

Some of his stuff is worth reading, but with this Nino, it was going on 2 yrs. before he was correct, and all the gloating needs to stop in order to get the respect he wants. He also forecast a lot of what JB states will happen instead of doing his own research. But still a lot of his comments are fun to read.
Ada Monzon @adamonzon 5h5 hours ago
Mire bien...el anunciado cambio de patron seco a lluvioso se puede manifestar prox. 7-10 dias con vaguada-frente
321. hamla
winter begins in dec.around 21st.if u get 2ft of snow in oct.nov.and part of dec.that would b a FALL storm not a winter storm
Just got to read Mr. Henson's Blog on the pending El Nino outlook and potential wild cards; outstanding summary as usual. In the short-term periods over the Winter, the mini-wild cards (within the El Nino regime) will be the Winter low pressure systems that often originate in Texas or the Gulf between January and March that often bring very severe weather along the Gulf coast then morph into heavy snow-wind producing Nor' Easters as they move up the Eastern Seaboard. That and the Spring tornado threat for the SE from frontal passages will be the big weather producers in the first half of 2016.
Quoting 321. hamla:

winter begins in dec.around 21st.if u get 2ft of snow in oct.nov.and part of dec.that would b a FALL storm not a winter storm
Quoting 272. Bucsboltsfan:



You mean January of 2014. Lol...
You mean November of 2013
Quoting 316. NativeSun:

Looks like your both losers, if it hits Texas they lose, vice versa.


The good ole "Loser Leaves Town" match. What an awesome suggestion.
Quoting 301. Hurricane1956:



Hello,my apologies for my ignorance! what is MOJO?, thanks!.

Seriously? Google is your friend. MOJO = voodoo. Magic.
And I do hope that the rain, with not too much flooding, happens for California.

Interesting as to the various regions in the US that rely on rain/precip for their water needs and how they deal with it. In parts of the West and Cali, they heavily rely on snow pack to feed their rivers and a retention areas (to store and distribute).

In Florida it is almost a bi-furcated scenario; Lake O for SE Florida (and particularly agriculture) with some aquifer retention, but with a salt water intrusion threat, and in North Florida/South Georgia (where I live), it's primarily well water that feeds ag and domestic uses so we need the rain to replenish the Floridan Aquifer as the primary water retention point (with some river support up here from the Flint and Oclocknee Rivers).

Your Local Water Source Poll

Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc).

Thanks in Advance........................WW.
Quoting 327. ChiThom:


Seriously? Google is your friend. MOJO = voodoo. Magic.



The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)
Quoting 328. weathermanwannabe:

Your Local Water Source Poll

Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc).

Thanks in Advance........................WW.


Long Island, New York - Underground aquifers with plentiful supply. I believe they are associated with our glacial past, though I'm uncertain.

NYC, New York - Reservoirs in upstate NY (primarily the Catskill Mountain region). One of the primary reasons NYC has surprisingly tasty tap water for such a huge metropolitan area.
Quoting 300. georgevandenberghe:



There was one in the 1880s that is believed to have been by far stronger than any in the 20'th century.




This was probably a El Nino event also in 1862:Link
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015


Excerpt:

MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE SIGNALING THE LEAD DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE TROUGHING/LOW PRES OVER THE EXTREME WRN GULF DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD ENHANCE THE ALREADY FAVORABLE ONSHORE FETCH AND HEAVY PCPN POTENTIAL FOR NERN MEXICO AND THE S-CENTRAL US. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING INCREASINGLY TOWARD THIS THREAT AND UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MONITORED BY NHC AND WPC.
Tropical or not, this could turn out to be an a sizable weather event. The last Euro run had this 10 days out.


That freeze map you showed Gro doesn't cover anywhere near enough territory in IL. Predicted to come to county to my N, way farther S & W than what it shows, frost warnings to StL, patchy in metro pick back up W. Growing season coming to an abrupt end. Earlier this week had upper 30s forecast, and just kept dropping the lows every day. Was going to try blanketing tomatoes & peppers, think I'll just pick what ever is close now.

52 w/ 32 dew pt, 30.37", N-NNW light winds w/ 14 gust currently in S C IL. Might get to 60 if we're lucky. Trees should really pop next week, can already tell difference from last weekend. Dry conditions for last month have allowed the farmers to probably get at least 90% of the crops out.

Edit: Just saw poll, most are wells/aquifer here, though some reservoir too for bigger towns/cities (or even mixture). A few along rivers pull from them too.
Quoting 293. Patrap:




I hope that sucker doesn't ramp up to even a decent looking disturbance, the pressure gradient doesn't need any more help ramping up winds in S Fla starting Sunday.


Your Local Water Source Poll

Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc).

Thanks in Advance........................WW.


Southern Alberta, Canada: snowmelt from the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, sandstone aquifers. Summer rainfall can be intense but is infrequent. Once in a while we get an epic flood (2005, 2013).
Quoting 311. georgevandenberghe:



I've said before STS catches more stuff than verifies but he also captures potential for extremes that I tend to miss so I appreciate his posts.



I'm still waiting for one of those 3 tropical storms that he hyped to hit the west coast of FL. Hype...
Looks like Bermuda needs to watch out for a storm as well next week.
Quoting 335. ElConando:



I hope that sucker doesn't ramp up to even a decent looking disturbance, the pressure gradient doesn't need any more help ramping up winds in S Fla starting Sunday.
If it does we may end up with 40-50 mph winds
Conditions at 45172 as of
(12:00 pm EDT)
1600 GMT on 10/16/2015

- Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
- Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
- Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
- Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.12 in
- Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.04 in ( Rising )
- Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 34.5 F
- Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 52.7 F
- Wind Chill Wind Chill (CHILL): 23.2 F
- Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 21.4 kts
- Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 23.3 kts
Forgot to include our friends in the rest of the world (Canada, the Caribbean, Latin America, and Europe) in their local water source poll................................. :) Interesting stuff with the main denominator often being snow pack.

At a global level, I believe that Winter snow pack/melt, provides over 80% of the worlds annual fresh water supply for different countries/regions.
GFS drops gulf low. Hurricane season over?
Quoting 288. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lake effect grabbing hold now just up and over superior and the u-p
heading south and east today and tonight


Greeting Keep..I believe this will be the same type of winter your region has had the past few years, regardless of the El-Nino. New England will also be stormy and bitter cold this winter. Areas further south may have icier than normal conditions. That Western Ridge /Eastern trof seems to happen more frequently now, no matter what time of the year it is. AER has a very goo
d read on what could happen this winter.....Link
Quoting 328. weathermanwannabe:

And I do hope that the rain, with not too much flooding, happens for California.

Interesting as to the various regions in the US that rely on rain/precip for their water needs and how they deal with it. In parts of the West and Cali, they heavily rely on snow pack to feed their rivers and a retention areas (to store and distribute).

In Florida it is almost a bi-furcated scenario; Lake O for SE Florida (and particularly agriculture) with some aquifer retention, but with a salt water intrusion threat, and in North Florida/South Georgia (where I live), it's primarily well water that feeds ag and domestic uses so we need the rain to replenish the Floridan Aquifer as the primary water retention point (with some river support up here from the Flint and Oclocknee Rivers).

Your Local Water Source Poll

Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc).

Thanks in Advance........................WW.


DC metro gets most of its water from the Potomac River. Minimum flow was I think about 280M gallons/day in early fall 1966 and daily draw is now over 300Mgallons/day some days. Just say'n.
Quoting 340. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Conditions at 45172 as of
(12:00 pm EDT)
1600 GMT on 10/16/2015

- Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
- Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
- Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
- Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.12 in
- Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.04 in ( Rising )
- Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 34.5 %uFFFDF
- Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 52.7 %uFFFDF
- Wind Chill Wind Chill (CHILL): 23.2 %uFFFDF
- Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 21.4 kts
- Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 23.3 kts

Forecast here to be freezing for the next three or four nights. Some areas will be approaching record low levels for the date.



Quoting 330. LongIslandBeaches:



Long Island, New York - Underground aquifers with plentiful supply. I believe they are associated with our glacial past, though I'm uncertain.

NYC, New York - Reservoirs in upstate NY (primarily the Catskill Mountain region). One of the primary reasons NYC has surprisingly tasty tap water for such a huge metropolitan area.


And also why a Brooklyn bagel cannot be duplicated anywhere else.
Quoting 342. HurricaneAndre:

GFS drops gulf low. Hurricane season over?

Days of rain for our area too.
Quoting 342. HurricaneAndre:

GFS drops gulf low. Hurricane season over?


Isn't the GFS a crap model? What does the Euro show?
Quoting 334. dabirds:

That freeze map you showed Gro doesn't cover anywhere near enough territory in IL. Predicted to come to county to my N, way farther S & W than what it shows, frost warnings to StL, patchy in metro pick back up W. Growing season coming to an abrupt end. Earlier this week had upper 30s forecast, and just kept dropping the lows every day. Was going to try blanketing tomatoes & peppers, think I'll just pick what ever is close now.

52 w/ 32 dew pt, 30.37", N-NNW light winds w/ 14 gust currently in S C IL. Might get to 60 if we're lucky. Trees should really pop next week, can already tell difference from last weekend. Dry conditions for last month have allowed the farmers to probably get at least 90% of the crops out.

Edit: Just saw poll, most are wells/aquifer here, though some reservoir too for bigger towns/ cites (or even mixture). A few along rivers pull from them too.


I'll try and do better next time.

The MJO is forecast to strengthen right in place.



Quoting 341. weathermanwannabe:

Forgot to include our friends in the rest of the world (Canada, the Caribbean, Latin America, and Europe) in their local water source poll................................. :) Interesting stuff with the main denominator often being snow pack.

At a global level, I believe that Winter snow pack/melt, provides over 80% of the worlds annual fresh water supply for different countries/regions.
This is a very good question. I know the main drinking water source in Guyana is from rainwater harvesting. They use these tanks which have some sort of filtration system inside them. Shoot I should get one and put it in my backyard here in Florida, it would save me having to buy water from the store.

Quoting 342. HurricaneAndre:

GFS drops gulf low. Hurricane season over?
A hurricane model doesn't determine if the season is over. Climatology does. 45 days left until the official end of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Quoting 352. Grothar:



I'll try and do better next time.


That's ok Gro, there's a reason they call them inAccuweather :) New one much better!
Quoting 355. GTstormChaserCaleb:

A hurricane model doesn't determine if the season is over. Climatology does. 45 days left until the official end of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.




Interestingly, the hurricane season chart that local mets in Tampa show doesn't have a second peak occurring in mid October. The trend just keeps going straight down. I wonder if their chart is wrong.
Quoting 357. tampabaymatt:



Interestingly, the hurricane season chart that local mets in Tampa show doesn't have a second peak occurring in mid October. The trend just keeps going straight down. I wonder if their chart is wrong.


Oh that. That's the Tampa Shield showing all is downhill for hurricane potential- as far as Tampa area is concerned.
8-)
Quoting 357. tampabaymatt:



Interestingly, the hurricane season chart that local mets in Tampa show doesn't have a second peak occurring in mid October. The trend just keeps going straight down. I wonder if their chart is wrong.


The may have smoothed (averaged) the line.
ESPI has been on the rise again & today it matched it's previous peak (2.38) for this El Nino event, so most likely El Nino has not peaked yet. Will be interesting to see how much higher ESPI goes from here..
12 Z...I wonder if the next few runs shift east. It may not since the current trof will be more zonal soon.

Quoting 357. tampabaymatt:



Interestingly, the hurricane season chart that local mets in Tampa show doesn't have a second peak occurring in mid October. The trend just keeps going straight down. I wonder if their chart is wrong.
It's a very small peak, so you might not notice it. We are coming up on the 94th anniversary of the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 24m24 minutes ago
Series of cut-off lows to impact California / SW US over next 10-days.
Wave breaking 101 -- excellent rain pattern
Quoting 362. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Overall, Looks like the past couple years. We will likely have a brief warm up, then the AO is forecast to go negative again, right along with the NAO..


Quoting 336. slavicthunder:



Your Local Water Source Poll

Would be interested to know from other Bloggers today (from different parts of the US) what the primary sources for freshwater are for their particular areas (riverine, aquafer, wells. snow pack, etc).

Thanks in Advance........................WW.


Southern Alberta, Canada: snowmelt from the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, sandstone aquifers. Summer rainfall can be intense but is infrequent. Once in a while we get an epic flood (2005, 2013).


Most folks down here get it through a long straw...

"The Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority (FKAA) was created in 1937 by Special Legislation of the State of Florida. The FKAA is the sole provider of potable water for all of the residents of the Florida Keys and presently serves over 44,000 customers within Monroe County. Potable water is transported to the Keys through a 130 mile transmission pipeline with an additional 649 miles of distribution pipelines which deliver water to the customer's property."

"The freshwater Biscayne Aquifer is the primary groundwater supply source for the Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority. Our wellfield is located within an environmentally protected pine rockland forest west of Florida City on the mainland. The location of the wellfield near Everglades National Park, along with restrictions enforced by state and local regulatory agencies, contribute to the unusually high quality of the raw water. The FKAA wellfield contains some of the highest quality groundwater in the country, meeting and exceeding all regulatory drinking water standards prior to treatment. Strong laws and regulations protect our wellfield from potential contaminating land uses. The J. Robert Dean Water Treatment Plant is staffed by state licensed personnel and it is home to one of our two nationally certified water testing laboratories."



Link


Added: Those in isolated locations have cisterns.


Saltwater desalinization plants may be the way to go, especially if droughts increase globally, we must preserve what we have in Rivers and Lakes.
MJO is about as strong as it gets the next 2 weeks and likely into November across the Western Caribbean & Central America.

Quoting 369. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Saltwater desalinization plants may be the way to go, especially if droughts increase globally, we must preserve what we have in Rivers and Lakes.


We have two of those too as we are only allowed to draw so much from the aquifer. They fire it up every month but fortunately it is seldom used for water as it cost a lot more than piping it down here.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Honduras
associated with a tropical wave is producing a large area of
cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across portions of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Land interaction is expected to preclude
significant development of this system during the next day or so
while it moves slowly west-northwestward across the Yucatan
Peninsula. However, some limited development is possible on Sunday
or Monday if the system emerges into the Bay of Campeche. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this system could produce heavy
rainfall across portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

The monster awakens.
Quoting 371. ChillinInTheKeys:



We have one of those too as we are only allowed to draw so much from the aquifer. They fire it up every month but fortunately it is seldom used for water as it cost a lot more than piping it down here.
I was talking to my teacher after class the other day, she was telling me it was a hard and complicated process too, and it does take up a bit of energy consumption as well. Still with rapid overdraw and depletion of reserves becoming a problem on a global scale, this may become an alternative that we will have to go to in the future, of course there is other alternatives as well that are cheaper like groundwater, harvesting rainfall water, and even recycling water for reuse.
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Quoting 372. GeoffreyWPB:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Honduras
associated with a tropical wave is producing a large area of
cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across portions of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Land interaction is expected to preclude
significant development of this system during the next day or so
while it moves slowly west-northwestward across the Yucatan
Peninsula. However, some limited development is possible on Sunday
or Monday if the system emerges into the Bay of Campeche. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this system could produce heavy
rainfall across portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


Looks to me more NW rather than WNW
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 233. WeatherConvoy:

If we can get these polar lows to stop traversing near the warm blob and causing upwelling, then a Strong High pressure Ridge can set up shop over the West. Because a warm mass of water lends tself to higher Geopotential Heights and High Pressure can set up shop over a region. If the High Pressure Ridge can build from Western Canada to the Pacific and East to just West of Hudson Bay, Then it's all systems go for the Est to get creamed this winter with snow. It will be skiers delight for me!! Also with El Nino conditions - this lends itself to enhance or strengthen the subtropical Jetstream or southern branch of the jet, whicg menas wild weather in the southeast, gulf coast and Florida. Gonna be Awesome!!


No thank you, please. We been dry long enuf here in So Cal.