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NOAA winter forecast: drought in Texas, wet in the Northwest and Ohio Valley

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:17 PM GMT on October 20, 2011

The Southern Plains should prepare for continued drier and warmer than average weather, while the Pacific Northwest is likely to be colder and wetter than average from December through February, according to the annual Winter Outlook released October 20 by NOAA. We currently have weak La Niña conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that a large region of cooler than average waters exists along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. Cooler than average waters in this location tend to deflect the jet stream such that the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler and wetter winters than average, while the southern U.S. sees warmer and drier winter weather. NOAA's forecast calls for a typical La Niña winter over the U.S.--warm and dry over the Southern Plains, cool and wet over the Pacific Northwest, and wetter than average over the Ohio Valley. According to NOAA's latest La Niña discussion, La Niña is expected to remain solidly entrenched throughout the coming winter and into spring.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature and precipitation for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted by the Winter Outlook released October 20 by NOAA.

Grading last year's forecast
Last year, NOAA predicted: "The Pacific Northwest should brace for a colder and wetter than average winter, while most of the South and Southeast will be warmer and drier than average". This forecast did not verify for Northwest, which had a winter with near average temperatures and precipitation. The South and Southeast were indeed much drier than average, as predicted, but the Southeast was much colder than average, in contradiction to the forecast of a warm winter. Last year's winter forecast was thus was a poor one. The reason for its failure was that it only took into account the impacts of La Niña on the weather--and not the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.)

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the Eastern U.S., and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa. It should be noted that the NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO (and AO) since record keeping began in 1950. The NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963. The NAO and AO were again strongly negative last winter in December and January. These negative AO conditions were responsible for unusual cold weather and snows over Eastern North America and Europe the past two winters. Unfortunately, the AO is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance. Thus, the latest NOAA winter forecast warns: “The evolving La Niña will shape this winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “There is a wild card, though. The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Niña’s typical impacts.”

Winter and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns might be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published this month in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern: "low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions occurring during solar minimum. The coming winter of 2011 - 2012 will have a much increased level of solar activity (Figure 2), so we may speculate that a strongly negative AO and a cold winter in northern Europe and the United States is less likely.


Figure 2. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2011 shows that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008, and that solar activity has been rising sharply in recent months. The peak of the current solar cycle is forecast to arrive in May 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
NOAA's annual Arctic Report Card discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009 - 2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009 - 2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative AO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and strongly negative AO last winter. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2011 - 2012, since Arctic sea ice loss this year was virtually tied with 2007 as the greatest on record.


Figure 3. Observed temperature and precipitation departures from average during December - February for the last three winters with a La Niña event in the "weak" category: 1984 - 1985, 1995 - 1996, and 2000 - 2001. These winters tended to be much colder than average over most of the country, particularly in the Upper Midwest. Dry conditions occurred over the Southeast and Pacific coast, and wetter than average conditions in the Midwest. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What happened during the last three weak La Niña winters?
The last three winters with weak La Niña conditions occurred in 2000 - 2001, 1995 - 1996, and 1984 - 1985. These winters tended to be much colder than average over most of the country, particularly in the Upper Midwest (Figure 3.) Dry conditions were observed over the Southeast and Pacific coast, and wetter than average conditions in the Midwest. The winter of 1995 - 1996 featured a strongly negative NAO, and occurred during a minimum in the solar cycle. That winter featured many cold air outbreaks across the Eastern U.S., resulting in fifteen major cities setting new all-time seasonal snowfall total, including 75.6" at New York City's Central Park. A better analogue for the coming winter may be the winter of 2000 - 2001, since that winter occurred during a peak of the solar cycle, and Arctic sea ice loss was closer to what was observed this year. The winter of 2000 - 2001 had a negative AO in December, but positive in January and February. This led to very cold conditions with heavy snows in December, and relatively mild weather in January and February. Overall, the winter of 2000 - 2001 ranks as the 27th coldest since 1895.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I usually shrug and ask them to catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a random forecast. Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as there is too much that we don't know. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past two years, so perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter for temperatures. The one portion of the winter forecast that does have a high probability of being correct, though, is the forecast of dry conditions over Texas and surrounding states. Extreme droughts tend to be self-reinforcing, by creating high pressure zones around them that tend to deflect rain-bearing low pressures systems. The unpredictable AO doesn't affect weather patterns that much over Texas, so we can expect that the fairly predictable drying La Niña influence will dominate Texas' weather this winter.

For more information
Golden Gate Weather has a nice set of imagery showing historic La Niña winter impacts, based on whether it was a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" event.

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

A Western Caribbean disturbance worth watching
A large area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras. The heavy thunderstorms are in an area of weak steering currents, and will move little over the next two days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region, but is expected to drop to the moderate range on Friday, and remain moderate through the weekend. This should allow some slow development of the disturbance, and the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS models all develop the disturbance into a tropical depression by Monday. The most likely areas to be affected by this hypothetical storm are Honduras and Nicaragua, but we can't rule out a scenario where the storm moves northwards and threatens Cuba late next week, as the UKMET model is predicting. NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook.

Another area of disturbed weather near 12N 47W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles islands, is also being given a 10% of development by NHC. This disturbance has a respectable amount of spin, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is minimal. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. None of the models develops the disturbance, and recent satellite images show that the disturbance appears to be getting sheared apart. I doubt this disturbance will be around on Friday.

If there's not much change to the forecast for these disturbances on Friday, I'll leave the current post up until Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I usually shrug and ask them to catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a random forecast. Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as there is too much that we don't know. "

;-) Thanks for the very informational update...

Thank you for the Update Dr.M!

Also, the 12z GFS run shows the W.Caribbean disturbance developing and following a similar path to Harvey from earlier this year.

Thanks. As usual, very informative and gives lots of "food for thought." Your blog updates are very much appreciated.

wat i belive it is going to be colder this year for florida because we allready hit the 40 3 times and last night it hit 43 and it keeps showing cold weather so i think it going to be a cold winter for florida
and it says it going to be warmer but i dont see it and oct 31 it shows jacksonville hiting 38 degrees
Thanks Dr. M!! this definitely feeds my burning curiosity about driving forces for the AO, which I haven't yet seen addressed sufficiently... it's a great start to unlocking the secrets of our climate, unfortunately we're doing so by way of a risky experiment, whether intended or not!
Thanks Dr Jeff,

I for one am very much hoping for a "normal" SE Florida winter, the last two were record breaking cold killers and we lost a lot of beautiful tropical trees and landscaping.. not to mention the winter food crops that were destroyed.

Sunny winter days with lows in upper 60's lower 70's and day time highs in low to mid 80's... is perfect for winter!

That would be getting back to our paradise winter once again.

Happy Thursday my friends.
i still expect because it is still a weak la nina we will see colder tempatures we are know and there is a weak la nina
The GFS has two cyclones forming in the Western Caribbean...Link
weatherfan pr u see it is cold down in fl and they expect it 2 be warm
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting hydrus:
The GFS has two cyclones forming in the Western Caribbean...Link



Hydrus your links never work.
Quoting eddye:
weatherfan pr u see it is cold down in fl and they expect it 2 be warm



yes, colder than forecasted .
Warmer and drier in the south, golfing and boating shall continue. Thanks Jeff
Quoting Wunderwood:



Hydrus your links never work.
Worked for me.
Quoting Wunderwood:



Hydrus your links never work.
Sorry..I will try to fix the problem.
Quoting soclueless:
Worked for me.


me too
Quoting Wunderwood:



Hydrus your links never work.
Quoting soclueless:
Worked for me.

Me, too. its a Java script -- maybe your computer is blocking it??? (Not a computer nerd. That's the extent of my knowledge.)
I know this isn't tropical weather, but since Dr. Masters mentions the Wooly Worm method of winter forecasting, Dr. Ray Russell-Applachian State University and creator of Ray's Weather Center,(a great forecasting page for the western North Carolina mountains) always features the Wooly Worm's forecast and annual Woolly Worm Festival is always held the third weekend in October in Banner Elk, NC.
by the way that 85 degrees in Brandon from Klystron9 should be a mistake !!!
I expect AOI near Nicaragua to be upped to 20-30% by 1pm cst
Quoting stormpetrol:
I expect AOI near Nicaragua to be upped to 20-30% by 1pm cst


and what could be the track of this one ?
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


and what could be the track of this one ?


Probably toward to CA or NW toward the western tip of Cuba, just my take!
Quoting seflagamma:
Thanks Dr Jeff,

I for one am very much hoping for a "normal" SE Florida winter, the last two were record breaking cold killers and we lost a lot of beautiful tropical trees and landscaping.. not to mention the winter food crops that were destroyed.

Sunny winter days with lows in upper 60's lower 70's and day time highs in low to mid 80's... is perfect for winter!

That would be getting back to our paradise winter once again.

Happy Thursday my friends.


I am surprised at your winter losses. Here in Jensen it wasn't so bad at all last year, and the year before it was only bad for a couple days. Up here, setting aside the citrus interests, we could use a good freeze to kill off some of the exotics, like Brazilian pepper, malelueca and Australian pine. Move the invasion line south for a couple years.

Hydrus, the link worked fine for me bro, thanks!

Sunliner, I appreciate all the loops you post, thanks.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE

SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A LOW CHANCE...10

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED

WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP

OF HONDURAS AND JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING

AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW

DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND HAS A LOW

CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



$$

FORECASTER AVILA
our towards miami like some of the models show
It's so nice out down here in south Florida. This is what we call girlfriend weather, and I wish I had one right now.
20 percent tommorrow it could be at 50
Quoting eddye:
our towards miami like some of the models show


Not sure what models you are referring to.

Quoting stormpetrol:


Probably toward to CA or NW toward the western tip of Cuba, just my take!



if that western tip of Cuba track verifies, that is not good news for South Florida.
hey cchs im in jacksonville at unf in december im transfering to ucf
Quoting ClaySFL:
It's so nice out down here in south Florida. This is what we call girlfriend weather, and I wish I had one right now.


Awwwwwwh....
Quoting TropicTraveler:


Awwwwwwh....


I'm not trying to pull a sob story, i'm just saying this weather is perfect for one. Since this weather is so nice, I mine's well go enjoy it.
we had a lil 4.6 mag earthquake in S. TX although I'm having a hard time believing it!
12z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.7N 81.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 21.10.2011 12.7N 81.1W WEAK

00UTC 22.10.2011 12.9N 80.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.10.2011 12.4N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.10.2011 14.1N 80.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.10.2011 15.1N 81.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.10.2011 16.3N 81.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.10.2011 17.4N 81.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.10.2011 18.4N 81.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.10.2011 19.6N 81.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.10.2011 21.0N 81.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.10.2011 22.2N 82.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

Quoting ClaySFL:


I'm not trying to pull a sob story, i'm just saying this weather is perfect for one. Since this weather is so nice, I mine's well go enjoy it.


I wish you luck - maybe it's called girlfriend weather because it's so nice all the ladies are out on the beaches?
It is 66 here in ECFL and I am huddled at my computer in jeans, long shirt and a hoodie.
We went from summer to winter in one day!
Quoting cctxshirl:
we had a lil 4.6 mag earthquake in S. TX although I'm having a hard time believing it!
There are fault lines all over TX. I was looking at maps just the other day. Looking at Goggle Earth Real-Time Earthquakes, they have it as a 4.8.
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:


me too
Thank you for letting me know..Clueless included...:)
Quoting cctxshirl:
we had a lil 4.6 mag earthquake in S. TX although I'm having a hard time believing it!

It's been upgraded to a 4.8. The largest ever earthquake known to have hit Texas outside the Big Bend and Panhandle regions...
dang looking at accuweather looks like in jacksonville we will be in the 40 and 50 for the next 2 weeks
i wonder if the effects of an extreme drought can systematically compound to put stress on the faults? an unlikely proposition, but there's so little we know... or maybe just so little i know :P
Quoting eddye:
dang looking at accuweather looks like in jacksonville we will be in the 40 and 50 for the next 2 weeks


Accuweather is an absolute joke.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.7N 81.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 21.10.2011 12.7N 81.1W WEAK

00UTC 22.10.2011 12.9N 80.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.10.2011 12.4N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.10.2011 14.1N 80.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.10.2011 15.1N 81.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.10.2011 16.3N 81.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.10.2011 17.4N 81.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.10.2011 18.4N 81.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.10.2011 19.6N 81.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.10.2011 21.0N 81.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.10.2011 22.2N 82.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



Very interesting. Definitely something that bares watching.
Quoting eddye:
dang looking at accuweather looks like in jacksonville we will be in the 40 and 50 for the next 2 weeks

Intellicast says that from Saturday through the weekend of the 29th, lows will range from 55 to 62. Since the average October low is 59.3, that sounds about right...
Hi Dr Jeff, here in Cuba today the temperature is very good (27 grade)..thanks for your blogs and information about weather
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Accuweather is an absolute joke.

I've heard them referred to as Inaccuweather, but don't know about them.
We'll be in the low 70s for the weekend.
Perfect tennis weather.
Quoting Minnemike:
i wonder if the effects of an extreme drought can systematically compound to put stress on the faults? an unlikely proposition, but there's so little we know... or maybe just so little i know :P

Definitely something to ponder. Another probably very remote possibility: oil & gas drilling in the area. The epicenter of this morning's quake lies directly in the middle of the thickest concentration of wells is this map:

Click for larger image:
oil


Could be a cause and effect thing: maybe the quake didn't happen because of drilling, but there's ample oil and gas because of the underlying geology. Anyway, something to ponder...
Quoting TropicTraveler:


I wish you luck - maybe it's called girlfriend weather because it's so nice all the ladies are out on the beaches?


Thanks. Truthfully, down here, when it's like this, they complain it's too cold to go to the beach LOL
HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

CMC AND UKMET ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF ECMWF ENS
MEMBERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NWRN
CARRIBEAN NEXT WEEK. HAVE ADJUSTED SFC PROGS FOR THIS FEATURE
SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL CMC AND UKMET APPROACHING WRN
CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL MID NEXT WEEK.



wow just read that next week we having another cold front can get into the upper 30
Quoting Minnemike:
i wonder if the effects of an extreme drought can systematically compound to put stress on the faults? an unlikely proposition, but there's so little we know... or maybe just so little i know :P


I was wondering the same thing.. if the extreme drought in Tx contributed in any way to the quake.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE

SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A LOW CHANCE...10

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED

WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP

OF HONDURAS AND JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING

AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW

DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND HAS A LOW

CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



$$

FORECASTER AVILA



Avila Rules!!!!! Gets my vote for forecaster of the year.
My bad. LOL. Oh well.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

CMC AND UKMET ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF ECMWF ENS
MEMBERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NWRN
CARRIBEAN NEXT WEEK. HAVE ADJUSTED SFC PROGS FOR THIS FEATURE
SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL CMC AND UKMET APPROACHING WRN
CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL MID NEXT WEEK.



thanks for posting this, could be interesting for us folks in florida come next week
61. red0
Quoting Seastep:
Off topic, but someone emailed this to me and I thought it was awesome.

PDF:

3 Carriers Groups and new Stealth Fighter


Lt. Kara Wade lol

Not only is this off-topic, but it's stupid on so many levels. First, that's the plane from the movie Stealth. Second, that's the USS Abraham Lincoln, not the freakin George Washington. Lastly, all of this stupidity is wrapped in a 23 page PDF.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I was wondering the same thing.. if the extreme drought in Tx contributed in any way to the quake.
probably more the turning of the earth, changing of seasons and the stresses that are involved that have more to do with quakes
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I was wondering the same thing.. if the extreme drought in Tx contributed in any way to the quake.


Maybe an aquifer has been so drained that a subterranean collapse or roof calving has occurred.
Quoting EasyRiderX:


Maybe an aquifer has been so drained that a subterranean collapse or roof calving has occurred.


I don't know enough about the subject but I did wonder if the drought could have some effect. Thanks for the response to my questions folks
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks for posting this, could be interesting for us folks in florida come next week

but even more so for us here in Grand Cayman
Good afternoon.



Quoting Minnemike:
i wonder if the effects of an extreme drought can systematically compound to put stress on the faults? an unlikely proposition, but there's so little we know... or maybe just so little i know :P


That’s a very interesting thought. There's so much we just don't know or shall I say have a large enough sample of data to prove or disprove without a reasonable doubt how earthquakes are influenced by nature or human intervention. Anything is possible, after all, tectonics follow the fundamental laws of physics. Most things under stress will eventually have to release that energy and the ever-moving crust does that in form of a quake. There has even been speculation that the 2008 Schizuan quake in China was “helped” by the sheer weight of a local dam and reservoir water adding stress to an already active and overdue fault line. Having lived in both Northern and Southern California, quakes were a way of life. Now that I live in Central Texas its drought. So I must say with the drought there are quite a few areas of land around here that have dried out so extensively that 3-4 foot deep chasms have started appearing. While most quakes happen many miles below the surface, it does make one wonder if diminishing moisture in the ground has caused deeper fractures & will result in a quake or two.
In the sunspot graph in the blog, it has the projected smoothed peak to be around 90, while the last peak smoothed value was around 120. Is there a reason that they are projecting a 25% drop-off from peak to peak?
Good afternoon

Vorticity in the South central Caribbean is on the increase and expanding.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon.




NHC gave the WCar AOI 20%? By now,it looks rather bad for 20%.


Shear has significantly decreased in the past 24 hours.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Surface low developing.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Definitely seeing low pressure forming in the Western Caribbean with broad turning evident not only in ASCAT imagery, but in RGB imagery as well.
Most models carve out an intense trough for the East late next week/Halloween weekend. If this tropical disturbance forms during that, it'll go more towards eastern cuba/Bahama's.

If before the expected trough, south florida might get a shot. But regardless, the strong front by the 28th will shoot this thing northeastward!
I think that a good area of low pressure has formed near some where near 14N 80W
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

NHC gave the WCar AOI 20%? By now,it looks rather bad for 20%.

I wouldn't really pay attention to its satellite appearance, at least, not now. CIMSS's vorticity product shows that the vorticity is strengthening and growing, a sign that the disturbance is gradually organizing.
Quoting kmanislander:


Surface low developing.


Looks like invest 96L will be up fairly soon.
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

NHC gave the WCar AOI 20%? By now,it looks rather bad for 20%.


The strong model support associated with it, could develop as soon as Sunday.
man, reading #61 redO broke my heart, I bought in hook line and stinker.

Quoting indianrivguy:
man, reading #61 redO broke my heart, I bought in hook line and stinker.



That's another thing I love about this place. There're enough educated folks here to call out the garbage.
George Town Grand Cayman 1/2 hour ago

img src="">
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
George Town Grand Cayman 1/2 hour ago

img src="">

Wow.
Quoting BenInHouTX:
In the sunspot graph in the blog, it has the projected smoothed peak to be around 90, while the last peak smoothed value was around 120. Is there a reason that they are projecting a 25% drop-off from peak to peak?


Some scientists are predicting a sunspot drought after 1012!
Quoting calkevin77:


That’s a very interesting thought. There's so much we just don't know or shall I say have a large enough sample of data to prove or disprove without a reasonable doubt how earthquakes are influenced by nature or human intervention. Anything is possible, after all, tectonics follow the fundamental laws of physics. Most things under stress will eventually have to release that energy and the ever-moving crust does that in form of a quake. There has even been speculation that the 2008 Schizuan quake in China was “helped” by the sheer weight of a local dam and reservoir water adding stress to an already active and overdue fault line. Having lived in both Northern and Southern California, quakes were a way of life. Now that I live in Central Texas its drought. So I must say with the drought there are quite a few areas of land around here that have dried out so extensively that 3-4 foot deep chasms have started appearing. While most quakes happen many miles below the surface, it does make one wonder if diminishing moisture in the ground has caused deeper fractures & will result in a quake or two.
this, and the mention of aquifer drainage, were the thoughts i'd considered. of course, Nea's mention of the existence, and extraction of oil resources is worth note. surely, the fault exists, and where there is one so too is the likelihood of an earthquake, given scopes of geological time... all so curious! large scale events being correlated with small scale events is of pique interest to me. (why i love weather and climate studies!!)
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


That's another thing I love about this place. There're enough educated folks here to call out the garbage.


I doubt it was an intentional deception.. if I had not read, and then checked that it was false, I would have sent it out too. There are some schmart folks here... I've been a student of this stuff a long time and some here make me feel like a mental midget.. no offense to the height challenged.
its evident a surface low is forming shear is decreasing so we can get a storm to form question is is it a carribean island storm (cuba hati, dominican republic hati) or a central america mexico storm. either way lots of heavy rain. if orginization continues 96L will be designated
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wow.


usually it's flat calm on this side of the island first Northwester of the season!... keeping an eye south of here also over the weekend
Quoting indianrivguy:


I am surprised at your winter losses. Here in Jensen it wasn't so bad at all last year, and the year before it was only bad for a couple days. Up here, setting aside the citrus interests, we could use a good freeze to kill off some of the exotics, like Brazilian pepper, malelueca and Australian pine. Move the invasion line south for a couple years.

Hydrus, the link worked fine for me bro, thanks!

Sunliner, I appreciate all the loops you post, thanks.


hey indian river guy! I have enjoyed ur posts over the years (especially when you and i talk Lake O releases) i am in ft myers the calusa side. I hear you on the brazil pepper and malelueca's. The pine though is a favorite of mine since its about the only tall trees we have in cape coral. Great observation on the non native killings.
61. red0

LOL. My bad.

No need to be an a-hole about it, though.

But, such is life.
96L tonight IMO.
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
13.23N/80.25W
88. indianrivguy

Yep

88. indianrivguy

And yep.
if 96L develops from this disturbance and moves toward Florida, the good thing is that waters around the Peninsula are much cooler now.
Quoting kmanislander:


Surface low developing.


I think so. Convergence tightening up, too.

Quoting Buhdog:


hey indian river guy! I have enjoyed ur posts over the years (especially when you and i talk Lake O releases) i am in ft myers the calusa side. I hear you on the brazil pepper and malelueca's. The pine though is a favorite of mine since its about the only tall trees we have in cape coral. Great observation on the non native killings.


didja know that Australian pine is actually an oak/hickory ...Mrs. Peters Smokehouse has been smoking with it for 40-50 years. It imparts a great flavor.

Great article today in the Stuart news about sugar subsidies. I just swapped mail with the author thanking him for writing it. Everyone should know about this issue, it affects... "costs" us all.
Time to end Farm Subsidies

I worry every time a big rain event dumps on Okeechobee Lake... hate the discharges.
12 days out (284hrs) the GFS predicts a pretty good storm just south of Cuba. Of course this it a long way out to worry about. Don't think any other models support this.

Kman. Good to see you. The seas around you look active. Check wu mail
Hey Zoo... hows Snapper creek these days?
Quoting indianrivguy:
Hey Zoo... hows Snapper creek these days?


Hi back. It's full! Glad to say its been sunny and beautiful today, not thrilled that there is another tropical mess out there.

How's the water on your end of the world?
The 18z surface analysis adds a low pressure.

Quoting zoomiami:
Kman. Good to see you. The seas around you look active. Check wu mail


Just did and back to you. Very rough here today with the front coming through. That should drive the low to our South further South in the short term until it reverses course later on and starts to ramp up if the models pan out.
Quoting zoomiami:


Hi back. It's full! Glad to say its been sunny and beautiful today, not thrilled that there is another tropical mess out there.

How's the water on your end of the world?


It's good to see you kiddo, I said hello a couple weeks ago but I guess you missed it. Had some uninsured health issues that drove me into abject poverty, not to mention manic depression, and off the mighty innertubes but I'm back, and glad for it

dirty... the army corpse engineers dumped okeechobee water on us just in case the last weather system put too much water in Okeechobee Lake. Now all the runoff from the St. Lucie watershed has been added to the estuary too, but "that" will pass naturally as long as there is more Okeechobee discharges.
Wow this has been a non active October.although I do think the storms we're getting is a sign of things to come this winter.(Crosses fingers for snowey winter)
The developing low pressure is to the east of the deep convection near the Nicaragua/Honduras border. Its a broad area of low pressure now, but it has the potential to develop over the coming days. I'd be a little less conservative and go with 30% at 8PM, since that takes us through Saturday evening, and a lot of models have it developing by Sunday.

I'd go with 40% at 8pm est.
Quoting kmanislander:


Just did and back to you. Very rough here today with the front coming through. That should drive the low to our South further South in the short term until it reverses course later on and starts to ramp up if the models pan out.


Not bad if it brings rain, you are still short on rainfall for the year aren't you?
Quoting zoomiami:


Not bad if it brings rain, you are still short on rainfall for the year aren't you?


Glad your doing better health wise. Do not understand their system of release etc. let's hope that the current rains help clean out the mess they released.
Quoting zoomiami:


Not bad if it brings rain, you are still short on rainfall for the year aren't you?


Not sure. It's been very wet the past few weeks.
Cool & Comfy..

Schweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet....



Pressures are beginning to fall in the Caribbean.

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 17.003N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Thu, 20 Oct 2011 21:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (20) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NW (319)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.7 F
Dew Point: 81.5 F
Water Temperature: 85.6 F
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pressures are beginning to fall in the Caribbean.

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 17.003N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Thu, 20 Oct 2011 21:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (20�) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NW (319�)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.7 F
Dew Point: 81.5 F
Water Temperature: 85.6 F
And plenty of moist air to feed on...
Quoting hydrus:
And plenty of moist air to feed on...


Good evening sir!

That is just beautiful in action. Especially, as I was under it and can remember it as it loops. Thanks.
Quoting indianrivguy:


didja know that Australian pine is actually an oak/hickory ...Mrs. Peters Smokehouse has been smoking with it for 40-50 years. It imparts a great flavor.

Great article today in the Stuart news about sugar subsidies. I just swapped mail with the author thanking him for writing it. Everyone should know about this issue, it affects... "costs" us all.
Time to end Farm Subsidies

I worry every time a big rain event dumps on Okeechobee Lake... hate the discharges.


I do too, everyone is always whinning about the Lake being empty and needing so much rain water to fill it up again, but before it can even get back to 15 ft they dump that fresh water into the ocean which they should stop doing.

I know the Lake should not get above 15 ft but my goodness that bunch of nuts we have running the water releases are so quick to let the water out even when it is still about 2 ft low! right now it is 12.52 ft and you say they have dumped it again?

That burns my butt!

Thanks for the info...
Quoting seflagamma:


I do too, everyone is always whinning about the Lake being empty and needing so much rain water to fill it up again, but before it can even get back to 15 ft they dump that fresh water into the ocean which they should stop doing.

I know the Lake should not get above 15 ft but my goodness that bunch of nuts we have running the water releases are so quick to let the water out even when it is still about 2 ft low! right now it is 12.52 ft and you say they have dumped it again?

That burns my butt!

Thanks for the info...


They aren't dumping now. Actually their rep reported on the local news here that they were surprised by the amount of water flowing into the "Big O" from the historic Kissimmee rain event and that we now may be set for the dry season.

Link
I never poll on a Thursday
Quoting interstatelover7165:
QUICK POLL

How Long Will It Be Until The Low Level Center Is Under The Deep Convection?

A. Your Answer

And what will it be at Eight?
A.Twenty
B.Thirty
C.Fourty
D.Fifty

Maybe tomorrow and i say A twenty
Quoting Patrap:
I never poll on a Thursday

or Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, or any other day of the week. ;)
Quoting seflagamma:


I do too, everyone is always whinning about the Lake being empty and needing so much rain water to fill it up again, but before it can even get back to 15 ft they dump that fresh water into the ocean which they should stop doing.

I know the Lake should not get above 15 ft but my goodness that bunch of nuts we have running the water releases are so quick to let the water out even when it is still about 2 ft low! right now it is 12.52 ft and you say they have dumped it again?

That burns my butt!

Thanks for the info...


Here's a little known fact.. the natural lake level before connecting to the Caloosahatchee was 22 feet. Torrey, Rita and Kreamer Islands were just patches of sawgrass. The lake had no lip, it simple flowed off the south eastern end into a pond apple slough, then spread out to become the Everglades.

Evening everyone......LOOKS like the forecast of a system forming off the Cold front was right on.....could be a good size system with the LOW Shear as well in time. Its gonna take a few days to come together tho.
The broad area of low pressure near cabo gracias a dios Honduras continues to become better organized likely see a 30% at 8pm TWO, one question for all where are the models taking it ????
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

or Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, or any other day of the week. ;)
tropical where are the models taking our system
*WARNING* Link about global warming.

(Cannae complain then ;) )

Link

Refering to a scientific response to the 'ClimateGate' affair.



Quoting Seflhurricane:
tropical where are the models taking our system


18Z GFS: Meanders the system in its area for a couple of days, moves it northwest, brings it up to hurricane status, and then forces in southwest near the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

12Z ECMWF: low pressure moves northwest and dissipates.

12Z CMC: Meanders the system in its area for a couple of days, moves it northwest, and has it positioned near the western tip of Cuba at the end of its run.

12Z NGP: Meanders the system in its area for a couple of days, moves it west, and dissipates it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow this has been a non active October.although I do think the storms we're getting is a sign of things to come this winter.(Crosses fingers for snowey winter)


Nah, not after two in a row. Well, Washington DC did get shafted for the most part last time but still, we've had enough.
What's this about Gaddafii being banned? He's still lurking. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


18Z GFS: Meanders the system in its area for a couple of days, moves it northwest, brings it up to hurricane status, and then forces in southwest near the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

12Z ECMWF: low pressure moves northwest and dissipates.

12Z CMC: Meanders the system in its area for a couple of days, moves it northwest, and has it positioned near the western tip of Cuba at the end of its run.

12Z NGP: Meanders the system in its area for a couple of days, moves it west, and dissipates it.
very intresting
Quoting FrankZapper:
What's this about Gaddafii being banned? He's still lurking.
who care's ???? we talk about weather
Quoting FrankZapper:
What's this about Gaddafii being banned? He's still lurking.

Don't know and don't care.

This is a weather blog, so take that discussion elsewhere.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Here's a little known fact.. the natural lake level before connecting to the Caloosahatchee was 22 feet. Torrey, Rita and Kreamer Islands were just patches of sawgrass. The lake had no lip, it simple flowed off the south eastern end into a pond apple slough, then spread out to become the Everglades.

So you are telling me that the Caloosahatchee had no flow before?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. ALTHOUGH
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE OR DRIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
cfs shows a -2.5 la nina. thats insane.... still if we hold on to la nina until the spring then it will be hard for el nino to form in the summer of 2012 meaning probably another active atlantic hurricane season :P
122. Patrap

Thanks for the chuckle. I needed that.
Quoting Darryl7:
So you are telling me that the Caloosahatchee had no flow before?


No, I did not say that anywhere..

Hydrologically, it wasn't communicating with Okeechobee Lake until Hamilton Disston connected it with Lake Hicpochee, the headwaters of the Caloosahatchee River, with a five mile canal. This happened in the 1890's memory is failing the proper date.
hmmm, how do you delete a doubled comment?
62°F at this moment. It's gonna be a chilly morning tomorrow.
Showing signs of organization , should have at least gave it a 30%
Quoting indianrivguy:
hmmm, how do you delete a doubled comment?

You can't delete any comments, you can replace any comment with "." though...That's what most of us do. ;)
Quoting stormpetrol:


Don't know, don't care, but I bet hes got more balls than you!!!

Inappropriate, immature, and not needed.
...Ahem.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...Ahem.

lol.

Serious quietness here...

...somebody say something.
Cricket
Cricket



...Chirp
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

lol.

Serious quietness here...


I got a chuckle out of this:

Electric taxpayer funded car

Add-on for taxpayer money funding said car being built in Finland
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

...somebody say something.

Something.
I did. ;)
And I only chuckle because it is so predictable.
On this date, 1780, Hurricane San Calixto the deadliest storm in Atlantic basin history was lost to observation about 300 miles southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland.

From Wiki

The Great Hurricane persisted near Barbados for about two days, producing violent winds which were described as "so deafening that people could not hear their own voices." The winds stripped the bark off trees before the hurricane downed every tree on the island.[2] This phenomenon has not been observed in any of the strongest modern-day tropical cyclones, so, according to meteorologist Dr. Jose Millas, for it to have been done by winds and rain alone would require winds over 200 mph (320 km/h).[7] The winds also destroyed every house on Barbados. Most ships at the bay broke free of their moorings from the hurricane's rough surf and all forts on the island were destroyed.[2] The winds and seas moved heavy cannons about 100 feet (30 m). About 4,500 people died on the island.[7]

In Saint Vincent, the hurricane destroyed 584 of the 600 houses in Kingstown. At Grenada, 19 Dutch ships were wrecked. On Saint Lucia, rough waves and a strong storm tide destroyed the fleet of British Admiral Rodney at Port Castries, with one ship destroying the city's hospital by being lifted on top of it. The hurricane destroyed all but two houses at Port Castries, and throughout the island about 6,000 perished.[2]

A fleet of 40 French ships involved in the American Revolutionary War capsized as a result of the hurricane off Martinique; about 4,000 soldiers drowned. The hurricane produced a 25-foot (7.6 m) storm surge on Martinique, destroying all houses in Saint-Pierre; 9,000 died on the island. Severe damage was reported on Dominica, Guadeloupe, Antigua, and Saint Kitts, though it is unknown if any died on those islands. Additionally, many ships were washed ashore on Saint Kitts. A powerful storm surge affected the island of Sint Eustatius, causing 4,000 to 5,000 fatalities.[2]

Heavy damage was reported in southern Puerto Rico, primarily in Cabo Rojo and Lajas. Severe damage also occurred in the eastern region of Santo Domingo. The hurricane later grounded 50 ships near Bermuda. Throughout its path, the hurricane killed over 20,000 people, possibly as high as 24,000, making it the deadliest hurricane in Atlantic hurricane history /wiki

It most certainly affected more than just this as it overtook ships at sea in it's journey into extratropical hell.

The 1780 was terrible beside this 'cane too.

An August cat 4 direct hit on Nawlin's.

Early October storm killed 1100 deaths then ran up the east coast wrecking two English Fleets.

The San Calixto, also know as the Great hurricane kills 20 plus thousand

Another one wrecked the Spanish Fleet about to attack English held Pensacola killing 2000.

Finally, a November tropical storm ran up the east coast disrupting the British blockade of New York.

This deadly hurricane season helped us become the USA.

I am working on something about this for my fledgling blog so stay tuned.

Aww man! There's an piece of apple in my teeth!

Anyways...that doesn't matter. :P

We should see 96L soon.
.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Aww man! There's an piece of apple in my teeth!

Anyways...that doesn't matter. :P

We should see 96L soon.

Umm, what? XD
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Cricket
Cricket



...Chirp



Coqui, Coqui, Coqui

You had some good posts IRG.

I feel guilty because a lot of that water comes to my canal here.

It need not be as high as it is now.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



Coqui, Coqui, Coqui



:D
SFL Bufo cacophony

But 100x in season. Very loud.
---
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


:D



awww, I miss the Coqui !!!!!
Quoting Cotillion:
*WARNING* Link about global warming.

(Cannae complain then ;) )

Link

Refering to a scientific response to the 'ClimateGate' affair.





That seems to be a very well-reasoned article, and kudos to the author, who appears to have a much better grasp of how to write science for the general public than many.

This is the scientific method in action. Skepticism drives the research along. At some point, however, the data will tell the tale, one way or the other.
Quoting Seastep:
SFL cacophony

But 100x in season.

I couldn't stand that.
Ugh...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I couldn't stand that.
Ugh...


Meh, it only lasts a few weeks.
Quoting Seastep:


Meh, it only lasts a few weeks.

I couldn't stand that for one hour, much less a few weeks.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



awww, I miss the Coqui !!!!!

I miss the coqui here, the population has almost disappeared in my area.
It's supposed to get in the upper 40's here tonight. Such nice weather..
141 indianrivguy "hmmm, how do you delete a doubled comment?"

Click on ModifyComment, type in 'hmmm, how do you delete a doubled comment?' at the top, delete everything that follows, then click Submit.
Quoting charlottefl:
It's supposed to get in the upper 40's here tonight. Such nice weather..

Upper 30s/Lower 40s here...


Quoting charlottefl:
It's supposed to get in the upper 40's here tonight. Such nice weather..
:/
Quoting charlottefl:
It's supposed to get in the upper 40's here tonight. Such nice weather..

Mid 70s here...chilly. LOL
Quoting KoritheMan:

:/


Why the wrinkly face? lol.. (Not sure what else to call that)

Quoting charlottefl:


Why the wrinkly face? lol..
Because I was out in similar weather just an hour ago. It wasn't fun. >_>
Quoting KoritheMan:

Because I was out in similar weather just an hour ago. It wasn't fun. >_>


You don't like the cold? I love it. I think I'm in the wrong state though. People here wear mittens at a baseball game when it's 68.
Quoting kmanislander:

Both lows (Caribbean/C ATL) continue to strengthen and slowly consolidate.
Quoting indianrivguy:
On this date, 1780, Hurricane San Calixto the deadliest storm in Atlantic basin history was lost to observation about 300 miles southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland. [snip]

Finally, a November tropical storm ran up the east coast disrupting the British blockade of New York.

This deadly hurricane season helped us become the USA.

I am working on something about this for my fledgling blog so stay tuned.



What you state is mostly true. However, the British were not blockading New York in 1780. New York was firmly in British hands from 1776 to 1783, although I'm sure they lost several ships due to the storm. The storm season overall did have an impact on the outcome of the War, and that's noteworthy. Looking forward to reading your blog.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Both lows (Caribbean/C ATL) continue to strengthen and slowly consolidate.


The Caribbean low looks to be the real player. Slow developemnt this time of year but the odds are looking pretty good for something to come up from down South in a couple of days.

Quoting charlottefl:


You don't like the cold? I love it. I think I'm in the wrong state though. People here wear mittens at a baseball game when it's 68.
I despise both extremes (hot and cold), but I definitely loathe the cold more.

I seriously don't understand how our resident northerners or even Canadians handle it. :/
Quoting kmanislander:


The Caribbean low looks to be the real player. Slow developemnt this time of year but the odds are looking pretty good for something to come up from down South in a couple of days.


Definitely the player, but the whole setup is weird. Not sure if it will be able to get going.

Time will tell. Patience is a must on this one, and most likely the last one, for sure.
Quoting kmanislander:


The Caribbean low looks to be the real player. Slow developemnt this time of year but the odds are looking pretty good for something to come up from down South in a couple of days.

Yeah.

Quoting Seastep:

most likely the last one, for sure.
I haven't been keeping tabs on it so I dunno if it's been consistent, but the 18z GFS wants to develop another tropical cyclone behind pre-96L in a few days. The track looks similar to Tomas.
Xandra, what's your take on the developing W Carib low?
To clarify the setup, vort is SE of the convergence and formation probs. With that CA jut in play, just not sure it can pull it all together. Shear is not an issue. No surface pressure obs to indicate anything. Weird setup.
Not much at 17N/81W:

Quoting KoritheMan:

I haven't been keeping tabs on it so I dunno if it's been consistent, but the 18z GFS wants to develop another tropical cyclone behind pre-96L in a few days. The track looks similar to Tomas.


Interesting. It hasn't. But with the cold front that just came through (second one), it portends the end.

Off to bed.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I despise both extremes (hot and cold), but I definitely loathe the cold more.

I seriously don't understand how our resident northerners or even Canadians handle it. :/


This is what I love about my little part of very southeastern Canada:
Highest Temp. recorded: 30.4 C
I don't know the lowest recorded, but these days it rarely goes below -12 C, which is far from really cold by any standard.
Tonight I'm going to bed with the temp. still at 14 C, which is about 10 C above my optimum. Bring on the Winter, or at least the Fall!
Quoting kmanislander:


The Caribbean low looks to be the real player. Slow developemnt this time of year but the odds are looking pretty good for something to come up from down South in a couple of days.
Not good.
You not only have observed enough over the years to have a good forecast, plus you understand probability analysis and "odds". Let's hope the slight underdog comes in here.
For Those Interested,
NOAA's September "State Of The Climate-Global Disasters Report"

Link
Treefrogs/couquis
The Carribean could become more active soon..
NHC calls this "broad Low" to drift around for awhile but to me it looks active now...but what the hey...I have to wear glasses just to go to the bathroom in the middle of the night...LOL !!

Link
Quoting kmanislander:


The Caribbean low looks to be the real player. Slow developemnt this time of year but the odds are looking pretty good for something to come up from down South in a couple of days.


I agree Kman..really messy days ahead for ya...hope all goes well for you...Be watching...keep us informed from your perspective...TIA
Was anyone shocked today when AGW deniers Judith Curry and Richard Muller admitted they were wrong?

http://www.economist.com/node/21533360
I cant believe the NHC didnt name 93L.

er, wait..

wasnt that da other week Pat...?
Quoting pcola57:
For Those Interested,
NOAA's September "State Of The Climate-Global Disasters Report"

Link


That's for 2010, here is Sept 2011..

Extreme heat was crazy in TX & OK..

The sweltering heat that gripped the southern United States throughout the summer continued to set records into the first half of September. On the 13th, Wichita Falls, Texas recorded its 100th day of 100°F (37.8°C) temperatures in 2011, shattering the old record of 79 days set in 1980. This is the first time in recorded history that any Texas locale has achieved this distinction. That same day, Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas recorded its most 100°F days in a calendar year, 70, breaking the previous record set in 1980. It is interesting to note how that record was broken—the temperature reached 107°F (41.7°C) on the 70th day, surpassing the previous daily record set in 1965 by a full 7°F (4°C). For the summer (June through August), the state of Texas recorded the hottest summer for any state since records began in 1895. Neighboring Oklahoma had the second hottest summer for any state on record. At least 46 deaths in Texas and 20 deaths in Oklahoma were attributed to the heat.
Interesting.....

I don't know if anyone sees the trick that the 18Z GFS is pulling off with a C Atl system but let me show you





and if you guys still don't see it its Hurricane Tomas 2010
Quoting Skyepony:


That's for 2010, here is Sept 2011..

Extreme heat was crazy in TX & OK..

The sweltering heat that gripped the southern United States throughout the summer continued to set records into the first half of September. On the 13th, Wichita Falls, Texas recorded its 100th day of 100%uFFFDF (37.8%uFFFDC) temperatures in 2011, shattering the old record of 79 days set in 1980. This is the first time in recorded history that any Texas locale has achieved this distinction. That same day, Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas recorded its most 100%uFFFDF days in a calendar year, 70, breaking the previous record set in 1980. It is interesting to note how that record was broken%u2014the temperature reached 107%uFFFDF (41.7%uFFFDC) on the 70th day, surpassing the previous daily record set in 1965 by a full 7%uFFFDF (4%uFFFDC). For the summer (June through August), the state of Texas recorded the hottest summer for any state since records began in 1895. Neighboring Oklahoma had the second hottest summer for any state on record. At least 46 deaths in Texas and 20 deaths in Oklahoma were attributed to the heat.


Skye your the best!!!I was browsing and comparing 2010 to 2011..posted wrong link...I know..I can be a mental midget sometimes...Sorry about the wrong date ya'll...LOL...
Texas sure is mentioned alot eh Skye...feel sorry for them this year...really do..
Quoting AussieStorm:
Interesting.....



yes aussie bad news for us and you know what I think this will happen cause the CMC had showen this happening for a good while now and the FIM model shows it and the UK met and the GFS to some extent so I think if any tropical cyclone forms it would head northwestward towards the Cayman Islands and western Cuba by early to mid part of next week. I am not the only ones saying that too

00z Surface analysis.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Surface analysis.


yes I was just about to post that anyway





Don't you find it odd that there were 3 earthquakes in the US today and tomorrow's the supposed phony "apocalypse"? Something completely odd. Just wondering.
Quoting hurricaneben:
Don't you find it odd that there were 3 earthquakes in the US today and tomorrow's the supposed phony "apocalypse"? Something completely odd. Just wondering.

Can you elaborate on that? I know there were several low-level quakes in Cali in the last hour, including a 3 in the same spot as the earlier 4, but I'm not familiar with the "apocalypse" angle.
210. DDR
The gfs seems to indicate a low is going to pop out of Guyana and move through the windward islands,many runs now.
Quoting Mucinex:

Can you elaborate on that? I know there were several low-level quakes in Cali in the last hour, including a 3 in the same spot as the earlier 4, but I'm not familiar with the "apocalypse" angle.


Well if you haven't heard, this guy by the name of Camping has made a prediction that the world will end due to a series of world wide earthquakes and more than that back in May 21. That didn't happen. No earthquakes even occured that day, even if they did they were isolated and barely noticeable nothing that came on the news at least not like this. He prostponed his predicted date to Oct 21 which is tomorrow. However do I believe in his rapture theory? No, I'm not one of his crazy fanatics. But it is a bit creepy if you think about it. Just something of note.
Dr. Masters mentioned Solar activity in today's blog...so that kinda opens the door for me to post some info ect...
First image...Earth/Sun size comparison(note the large size of the current sun spots..Wow!!!)



Second is Quick time window of todays activity..be sure to click run button when fully loaded..
(Oh Well...Didn't come through like I wanted it too..sorry all)

Today's still pic of the day...click to enlarge...
(Well having issues with my postings...go to the link at the bottom to SolarHam.com to see for yourselves)



credit SolarHam.com

Link
Quoting hurricaneben:


Well if you haven't heard, this guy by the name of Camping has made a prediction that the world will end due to a series of world wide earthquakes and more than that back in May 21. That didn't happen. No earthquakes even occured that day, even if they did they were isolated and barely noticeable nothing that came on the news at least not like this. He prostponed his predicted date to Oct 21 which is tomorrow. However do I believe in his rapture theory? No, I'm not one of his crazy fanatics. But it is a bit creepy if you think about it. Just something of note.

Oooh yeah. I remember that guy.
Quoting Mucinex:

Oooh yeah. I remember that guy.


I don't really believe in his theory, just saying that this coincidence is sorta strange in a creepy way, I mean if this is just a coincidence which it is IMO, then it's something of note.
O Lordy..









Quoting Patrap:
O Lordy..











They say it was near Deweesville,TX...5.0 mag.

Link
Yeah, twas around Sunrise today.


The cow's felt it I hear.

If I dont see yas,, we all had a good run.


Nighty..
Quoting Patrap:
Yeah, twas around Sunrise today.


The cow's felt it I hear.


Bet they felt it in Deweesville..LOL..there are three...make that four reservoirs near there...I'd be looking for cracks for sure!!!
Night Pat..
Quoting pcola57:
Dr. Masters mentioned Solar activity in today's blog...so that kinda opens the door for me to post some info ect...
First image...Earth/Sun size comparison(note the large size of the current sun spots..Wow!!!)



Second is Quick time window of todays activity..be sure to click run button when fully loaded..
(Oh Well...Didn't come through like I wanted it too..sorry all)

Today's still pic of the day...click to enlarge...
(Well having issues with my postings...go to the link at the bottom to SolarHam.com to see for yourselves)



credit SolarHam.com

Link


SolarHam is the very best solar website around, I'm a huge fan :)
Quoting hurricaneben:


Well if you haven't heard, this guy by the name of Camping has made a prediction that the world will end due to a series of world wide earthquakes and more than that back in May 21. That didn't happen. No earthquakes even occured that day, even if they did they were isolated and barely noticeable nothing that came on the news at least not like this. He prostponed his predicted date to Oct 21 which is tomorrow. However do I believe in his rapture theory? No, I'm not one of his crazy fanatics. But it is a bit creepy if you think about it. Just something of note.


Not creepy at all. The earth averages around 200 > 4.0 magnitude quakes each week. At the moment we've been averaging around 160-170. When it's like this I say "the earth is quiet". It will do a few mid sized quakes within a week or two, could be one around low 6.0, it's not creepy, it's science. ( In comparison, when Japan went off the average for the weeks after was around 500 - 600 > 4.0 )

I get my info from here
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/
Quoting ktymisty:


SolarHam is the very best solar website around, I'm a huge fan :)


Yes the best for me also ktymisty..I totally agree...most solar sites have pieces of info but there you have the reports,images,video's,UTube commentary,ect...wish I could get the video posting to work here on WU...maybe it's me...
Quoting ktymisty:


Not creepy at all. The earth averages around 200 > 4.0 magnitude quakes each week. At the moment we've been averaging around 160-170. When it's like this I say "the earth is quiet". It will do a few mid sized quakes within a week or two, could be one around low 6.0, it's not creepy, it's science. ( In comparison, when Japan went off the average for the weeks after was around 500 - 600 > 4.0 )

I get my info from here
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/


I get my disaster info,including earthquakes from RSOE EDIS..guess I just like it better..they work with USGS also..

Link

Quoting pcola57:


I get my disaster info,including earthquakes from RSOS..guess I just like it better..they work with USGS also..

Link



Ah, nice link, I've seen that one before but it's saved away now, thanks

and I also like this one for earthquakes, volcanoes and live updates
Lots of dry air in the GOM.



.
Quoting ktymisty:


Ah, nice link, I've seen that one before but it's saved away now, thanks

and I also like this one for earthquakes, volcanoes and live updates


Also a nice link...lots of related and archived posts in there also...it's a keeper ktymisty..Thanks
Quoting pcola57:


I get my disaster info,including earthquakes from RSOE EDIS..guess I just like it better..they work with USGS also..

Link


Did you notice on your link.

Tropical Storm in El Salvador on Thursday, 13 October, 2011 at 02:40 (02:40 AM) UTC.


Tropical Storm in Guatemala on Thursday, 13 October, 2011 at 02:38 (02:38 AM) UTC.
When were these Tropical Storms???
Nasty weather in Guyana tonight, right ah town too!

Quoting AussieStorm:

Did you notice on your link.

Tropical Storm in El Salvador on Thursday, 13 October, 2011 at 02:40 (02:40 AM) UTC.


Tropical Storm in Guatemala on Thursday, 13 October, 2011 at 02:38 (02:38 AM) UTC.
When were these Tropical Storms???


I see what your seeing...I see 2000 evacuated in El Salvador and 35 dead in Guatemala..definite Lat. and Long. coordinates...TC/TS designated numbers apparently...I haven't seen a declared TC/TS by the NHC..so your guess is as good as mine..
NHC dropped the ball again???
Quoting pcola57:


I see what your seeing...I see 2000 evacuated in El Salvador and 35 dead in Guatemala..definite Lat. and Long. coordinates...TC/TS designated numbers apparently...I haven't seen a declared TC/TS by the NHC..so your guess is as good as mine..
I forgot to mention, the poster who said last week that SFL would see 50's was spot on!!!!
Quoting hurricaneben:
Don't you find it odd that there were 3 earthquakes in the US today and tomorrow's the supposed phony "apocalypse"? Something completely odd. Just wondering.


To the contrary, earthquake activity is relatively low in the past few days. Mr. Gadhafi would likely agree with the prediction though.
00Z ECMWF has a storm crossing W Cuba and hits S FL between 144-168 hrs. I would take it with a grain of salt considering this is the first run it has shown this scenario. If it shows up on the 12Z later today...then things just might get more interesting. The 00Z GFS is slower with the disturbance developing and has it crossing extreme E Cuba and taken out to sea by a trough. I would take the GFS over the ECMWF simply because it has been hard for anything to spin up quickly this season in the Caribbean.
The LP now in the S Caribbean is of no concern. It doesn't even show up on the ECMWF and the GFS has it weak moving W and dies over Honduras.
Hey, AUSSIE!!

Well done, the Rugby!
Good, close game....
A new study by an Independent group of US Scientists has concluded that the Earth is Warming......

How very strange!
Quoting pottery:
A new study by an Independent group of US Scientists has concluded that the Earth is Warming......

How very strange!


lurk off/
I know I'm in the minority. I think a warm world will be good for us in the long run. Suffering is going to happen, it will be hard, but eventually it will do us good
/good night
Potential Tropical Troubles In The Caribbean Over The Next Week
Rob Lightbown on October 21, 2011, 6:10 am

I am keeping close tabs on two areas of potential concern. The first area is an area of low pressure that is located over the southwestern Caribbean. Satellite imagery showed some concentrated areas of convection just east of the coast of Nicaragua. Vorticity in the area remains quite concentrated, centered near 12 North Latitude, 80 West Longitude. Wind shear has decreased since yesterday, as expected, and is currently between 10 and 20 knots. An area of 5 knots or less shear is expected to move over this system within the next 24 hours and environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable right through this weekend.

I expect slow development of this broad area of low pressure this weekend and I still expect it to become a tropical depression either on Sunday or Monday. Where will this potential tropical cyclone track? Currently this system is in an area of very light steering winds and it seems like it will very slowly track south-southwestward over the next day or two. The various model guidance forecasts have different ideas on where this potential system will track; so, let’s take a look:

The GFS model starts to spin up this low pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean during Saturday into Sunday and forecasts it to attain tropical storm strength by Sunday night. After that, the GFS model forecasts this tropical storm to make landfall on the north coast of Honduras on Monday night into Tuesday morning as a strong tropical storm. The GFS model also forecasts the development of a second tropical cyclone in the central Caribbean by about the middle part of next week. This second potential system appears to originate from the deep thunderstorm activity that is now occurring near the coast of Guyana in northeastern South America. The GFS model then forecasts this second system to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday and forecasts it to impact Jamaica and eastern Cuba late next week as a Category 1 hurricane.

The Canadian model slowly develops the low pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean this weekend and forecasts it to strengthen to tropical storm strength during Monday as it lifts northward into the northwestern Caribbean. The Canadian model then forecasts this system to turn to the west and affect the Cayman Islands as a tropical storm on Monday night and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday as a tropical storm.

The UKMET model looks fairly similar to the Canadian model in that it forecasts slow development over the weekend as it pulls northward out of the southwestern Caribbean. As we get into next week, the UKMET model forecasts this potential tropical cyclone to affect the Cayman Islands by Tuesday and western Cuba by Wednesday. The UKMET model also forecasts that barometric pressures will remain low across the entire Caribbean next week potentially supporting the idea of a second tropical cyclone forming later next week in the central and western Caribbean.

The European model is also on board with potential development in the southwestern Caribbean and forecasts this system to start organizing over the weekend and be lifted northward and affect the Cayman Islands and western Cuba once we get into Tuesday and Wednesday. After that, the European model forecasts this system to track northeastward affecting the Florida Straits and south Florida as a hurricane on Thursday and then become absorbed into a large storm system off of the New England coast by next Friday.

So, it is of my opinion that there are two potential scenarios for this tropical system. The first is that it meanders around the southwestern Caribbean over the next few days and gains little latitude. Should this happen, then a ridge of high pressure building over the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico early next week would likely push this potential tropical storm westward into Honduras and Nicaragua by about Tuesday and Wednesday. If this happens, then I foresee this to peak out as a 50 or 60 mph tropical storm, at most. This is the scenario laid out by the GFS model and the experimental FIM model.

The second potential scenario is that the trough of low pressure currently located over the eastern United States may be strong enough to lift this northward over the weekend as forecast by the Canadian, UKMET and NAM models. Should this happen, then it would have a lot more time to strengthen and could impact the Cayman Islands, central and western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula as at least a Category 1 hurricane right around the middle part of next week.

I am leaning towards the second scenario of this system lifting northward and potentially affecting the northwestern Caribbean and potentially south Florida and the Bahamas. With that said, western Caribbean tropical cyclones are notoriously very difficult to forecast and many things may change in the forecast of this potential tropical system over the weekend and into next week; so, stay tuned!

As I mentioned in the model guidance talk, some of the model guidance forecasts are forecasting a second tropical cyclone to possibly develop next week in the central Caribbean; so, my second area of potential concern is a tropical disturbance that is located near the northeastern coast of South America. Satellite imagery this morning showed some very deep convection associated with this disturbance, although vorticity associated with this disturbance is pretty strung out right now and it appears to be mostly connected with an upper level low pressure system located just east of the Lesser Antilles. Wind shear is way too strong to support any type of development anytime soon. So, this second disturbance will be monitored once we get into next week should it start developing in the Caribbean.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF develop this area of thunderstorms by the middle of this upcoming week. We will have to monitor it closely, as conditions will be favorable ahead of the system. But for now, the system is enduring 40 knots of wind shear, or higher.



Our Caribbean disturbance is producing strong winds in excess of 25-30 mph...Its gradually organizing.



Code Orange Alert and...Near 10% alert? Never seen them use ~10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
Quoting WoodyFL:
Good morning Woody. That's just what I needed to see to brighten my day. LOL. Weather is nasty here in Grand Cayman. Heavy rains and lightning all night. Very dark here now but rain has stopped for now. Winds are between 20-30 mph.
Good morning everyone! Feels like fall in central North Carolina. Hard to believe it's still Hurricane season anywhere.
Throw the models out if the the LP is where the NHC has it initialized.
How about this one? Think it should've been named?

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning Woody. That's just what I needed to see to brighten my day. LOL. Weather is nasty here in Grand Cayman. Heavy rains and lightning all night. Very dark here now but rain has stopped for now. Winds are between 20-30 mph.


Morning to you storm. Hope they are wrong. Looks like more models are seeing the same thing. Two systems developing.
252. MahFL
Conditions expected to become more favorable :).
253. D6X
Hello Aussiestorm
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did you notice on your link.

Tropical Storm in El Salvador on Thursday, 13 October, 2011 at 02:40 (02:40 AM) UTC.

Tropical Storm in Guatemala on Thursday, 13 October, 2011 at 02:38 (02:38 AM) UTC.
When were these Tropical Storms???


Could they be referring to Depression 12 from the East Pacific which eventually became 95L in the Caribbean?
Quoting WoodyFL:


Morning to you storm. Hope they are wrong. Looks like more models are seeing the same thing. Two systems developing.
I see that but seems most models turn the second one N/NW around Jamaica. I guess only time will tell.
Quoting MahFL:
Conditions expected to become more favorable :).
Shear is really falling in the Caribbean now. Lots of moisture to work with.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I see that but seems most models turn the second one N/NW around Jamaica. I guess only time will tell.


I've noticed a little disagreement on them. One has a system moving over the west coast of Cuba and into Florida. The other moves it over eastern Cuba and into the Bahamas. I think that is the current GFS. Not sure. The shear maps seems to show very low shear in the area either way.
Quoting WoodyFL:


I've noticed a little disagreement on them. One has a system moving over the west coast of Cuba and into Florida. The other moves it over eastern Cuba and into the Bahamas. I think that is the current GFS. Not sure. The shear maps seems to show very low shear in the area either way.
Shear is still falling too so I think both have a good shot at development.
hey stormwatcher what u think of this seem like the GFS wants to bring paloma back from the dead and wants to pull it over us instead of just south. It seems that the CMC wants to take it N hits us then takes it to the Yuc, the UKM wants to take it N hits us then hit W Cuba, the ECMWF takes it N hits us then W Cuba then S Fl. I tell u we are going to have a hell of a week next week
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey stormwatcher what u think of this seem like the GFS wants to bring paloma back from the dead and wants to pull it over us instead of just south. It seems that the CMC wants to take it N hits us then takes it to the Yuc, the UKM wants to take it N hits us then hit W Cuba, the ECMWF takes it N hits us then W Cuba then S Fl. I tell u we are going to have a hell of a week next week
It looks like we might not be able to escape this one. Paloma was my first thought too. The blob just to the east of the Antilles needs to be watched closely too.
Let the music play:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110211231
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011102112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011102012, , BEST, 0, 150N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102018, , BEST, 0, 145N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102100, , BEST, 0, 142N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102106, , BEST, 0, 138N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 800W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting Neapolitan:
Let the music play:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110211227
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011102112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 800W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
I knew it wouldn't be long until we saw this. It is looking better and better.
I want a trough to get OMAR part II (weaker) with the southern windards blob!
I was surprised earlier no invest yet , given the visible representation . I see that we now have 96L from Neapolitans post though
Quoting superpete:
I was surprised earlier no invest yet , given the visible representation . I see that we now have 96L from Neapolitans post though
Good morning Pete. Did you have a lot of rain down there last night ? It poured up here and a lot of lightning.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I knew it wouldn't be long until we saw this. It is looking better and better.
Good Morning stormwatcherCI.

Certainly looking like something to keep a close eye on.
96L in the SW Caribbean.
267. MahFL
Only 10 to 15 kts of shear right now.
Noaa 6 days out...
Quoting D6X:
Hello Aussiestorm
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did you notice on your link.

Tropical Storm in El Salvador on Thursday, 13 October, 2011 at 02:40 (02:40 AM) UTC.

Tropical Storm in Guatemala on Thursday, 13 October, 2011 at 02:38 (02:38 AM) UTC.
When were these Tropical Storms???


Could they be referring to Depression 12 from the East Pacific which eventually became 95L in the Caribbean?
Quoting pottery:
A new study by an Independent group of US Scientists has concluded that the Earth is Warming......

How very strange!

Thank you Captain Obvious. Lol
Quoting pottery:
Hey, AUSSIE!!

Well done, the Rugby!
Good, close game....

Thanks mate, I'd expect NZ to choke as they always do in these big games. The frenchies are upredictable, just like this years hurricane season.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning Pete. Did you have a lot of rain down there last night ? It poured up here and a lot of lightning.


Good morning

The weather woke me up around 2 last night with thunder, lightning and heavy rain. One inch here since midnight.

As for 96L you will remember our discussion about 5 days about what was likely to happen once the fronts started coming down and here we go in the Southern Caribbean. Hopefully not a Paloma replay.
Good morning Kman and Cayman 2010. East End is very bleaky. Sure hope it is not another Paloma. Kman, what do you think about the AOI east of the Antilles ?
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

The weather woke me up around 2 last night with thunder, lightning and heavy rain. One inch here since midnight.

As for 96L you will remember our discussion about 5 days about what was likely to happen once the fronts started coming down and here we go in the Southern Caribbean. Hopefully not a Paloma replay.
Morning Kman,

An interesting week ahead...



I have been up since 4 am and 96L just continues to look better and better.
Happy Friday, all...

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Nasty weather in Guyana tonight, right ah town too!

Hey, GT, I was just thinking how although Guyana doesn't get the real tropical systems, they DO get the ITCZ passing through their territory 2x a year, meaning that in some ways they get more "tropical" weather than we do.... I mean straight from the West African coast....

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Amazing how clearly defined that front is as it moves through the Central Bahamas. Weather here this morning is cool and overcast.... great stuff for a day off work [hurrah!]

Looks like the trough will be they key with 96L.









Quoting BahaHurican:
Happy Friday, all...

Hey, GT, I was just thinking how although Guyana doesn't get the real tropical systems, they DO get the ITCZ passing through their territory 2x a year, meaning that in some ways they get more "tropical" weather than we do.... I mean straight from the West African coast....

Amazing how clearly defined that front is as it moves through the Central Bahamas. Weather here this morning is cool and overcast.... great stuff for a day off work [hurrah!]


So your saturday has started early, Mine too. Saturday here already.
Quoting Cayman2010:
Morning Kman,

An interesting week ahead...
What really gets me is listening to Radio Cayman news this morning there is no mention of a possibility of development anywhere near us. Just a 40% chance of showers. You would think they would at least give people a heads up since IF it heads this way as a developed system there won't be much time to prepare. My husband was putting up shutters in 40-50 mph winds right before Paloma.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning Kman and Cayman 2010. East End is very bleaky. Sure hope it is not another Paloma. Kman, what do you think about the AOI east of the Antilles ?


It is very far to the South and conventional thinking would be that it goes inland and that would be the end of it. The GFS however takes it a little due N from its present position and tries to develop a feature that eventually merges with the low in the Southern Caribbean right over us and they become one system.

That is a very complicated solution and I am not buying it right now. It is very late in the year for anything to make it all the way to the NW Caribbean from that position. If anything does develop from that I would expect it to lift out before reaching us.

My real concern is what is sitting to our South as the GFS takes it slowly just to the W of our area and then back to the ENE right over GC basically and that is not out of the realm of possibilities for the end of October.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Thanks mate, I'd expect NZ to choke as they always do in these big games. The frenchies are upredictable, just like this years hurricane season.



Less of the talk about rugby please! says a pretty P...ed off Welshman.

Hope this system in the caribbean does not come our way next week as I have a trip to Havana booked for Wednesday.
Quoting Cayman2010:
Morning Kman,

An interesting week ahead...


Good morning

Certainly interesting over the weekend until we see how this pans out.
I have to go now but will be back later
Quoting AussieStorm:

So your saturday has started early, Mine too. Saturday here already.
LOL... normally I'm 12 hrs behind u guys.... today I've caught up.... lol


Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What really gets me is listening to Radio Cayman news this morning there is no mention of a possibility of development anywhere near us. Just a 40% chance of showers. You would think they would at least give people a heads up since IF it heads this way as a developed system there won't be much time to prepare. My husband was putting up shutters in 40-50 mph winds right before Paloma.
Quite a few pple here haven't taken their shutters down since Irene... Given the fact that we've had pretty spectacular early November visitors, it's a lot easier to just leave them.

286. eddye
this could be florida first hurricanecoming out of the carribean keep on the look out florida
Quoting caymankelt:



Less of the talk about rugby please! says a pretty P...ed off Welshman.

Hope this system in the caribbean does not come our way next week as I have a trip to Havana booked for Wednesday.

Mate! your team did well, who would of thought a NZ v France final would be on offering Sunday night.

This is my coming week, I love it. Warmest week since early March.
Sat:81°F Sun:82°F Mon:90°F Tues:75°F Wed:82°F Thurs:77°F Fri:82°F
Quoting kmanislander:


It is very far to the South and conventional thinking would be that it goes inland and that would be the end of it. The GFS however takes it a little due N from its present position and tries to develop a feature that eventually merges with the low in the Southern Caribbean right over us and they become one system.

That is a very complicated solution and I am not buying it right now. It is very late in the year for anything to make it all the way to the NW Caribbean from that position. If anything does develop from that I would expect it to lift out before reaching us.

My real concern is what is sitting to our South as the GFS takes it slowly just to the W of our area and then back to the ENE right over GC basically and that is not out of the realm of possibilities for the end of October.
Thanks. I am really not looking forward to this.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Let the music play


Good morning Nea - you have WU mail
Baha, we haven't had to shutter up yet this year but looks like it might be time now :(
No comments about Invest96L moving southward?
10/20 12(UTC), 15.0n80.0w, 20knots, 1009millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/20 18(UTC), 14.5n80.0w, 20knots, 1009millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/21 00(UTC), 14.2n80.0w, 20knots, 1009millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/21 06(UTC), 13.8n80.0w, 20knots, 1009millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/21 12(UTC), 13.5n80.0w, 25knots, 1008millibars, (closed)LO(w)

Copy&paste cdd, puz, pva, adz, lio, 15.0n80.0w-14.5n80.0w, 14.5n80.0w-14.2n80.0w, 14.2n80.0w-13.8n80.0w, 13.8n80.0w-13.5n80.0w, ctg, rch into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
I am at work now so will check in throughout the day to see the latest. Have a good morning everyone.
Quoting aspectre:
No comments about Invest96L moving southward?
10/20 12(UTC), 15.0n80.0w, 20knots, 1009millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/20 18(UTC), 14.5n80.0w, 20knots, 1009millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/21 00(UTC), 14.2n80.0w, 20knots, 1009millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/21 06(UTC), 13.8n80.0w, 20knots, 1009millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/21 12(UTC), 13.5n80.0w, 25knots, 1008millibars, (closed)LO(w)

Copy&paste cdd, puz, pva, adz, lio, 15.0n80.0w-14.5n80.0w, 14.5n80.0w-14.2n80.0w, 14.2n80.0w-13.8n80.0w, 13.8n80.0w-13.5n80.0w, ctg, rch into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
That was mentioned by the NHC last night but I think it is expected to be a temporary movement due to weak steering ATM.
#237 Pottery:
Strangest thing I ever saw:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-153 73071
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What really gets me is listening to Radio Cayman news this morning there is no mention of a possibility of development anywhere near us. Just a 40% chance of showers. You would think they would at least give people a heads up since IF it heads this way as a developed system there won't be much time to prepare. My husband was putting up shutters in 40-50 mph winds right before Paloma.
For Paloma, our landlord kept insisting he would get the shuttering done and then left it to late. If Paloma hadn't turned then I doubt we would have fared too well. Needless to say, we moved shortly afterwards to a place where I could be in control of hurricane protection. We moved again since and have hurricane glass so preparations don't take much time now.
Got the graphics up on the Web for 96L......WU is a little slow posting the Models!
The disturbance in the Southwest Carribbean is really looking impressive this morning. Tops continue to cool.

Link

For anyone interested, a new study has come out regarding a topic near and dear to our hearts - well at least it tends to stir quite a number of passionate responses.

The group conducting this study are independent of previous groups, and were funded by organizations that have done their best to "discredit" the previous studies.

I encourage everyone to read over the material, and come to your own conclusions.

BBC article describing the study:
Link


Website, data, and papers from those that conducted the study:
Link

Edited to correct links
There's a very good chance that 96L will, at least in my point of view, develop into Tropical Storm Rina. Good model support, adequate upper level conditions, and its creating a moist environment from that very dry air to its north. Plus, waters in the Caribbean are still very warm. It should have no problem, except maybe land interaction, spinning up into a tropical cyclone.
96L is not going much anywhere any time soon........this is gonna be a long term event it seems......might stay in the Caribbean for at least the next 7 days or more.
I cant believe they didnt name 95L..

Good morning all. It is nice and cool here in the Fl. Keys. In fact it is chilly, but I won't complain. Sweater weather being it is in the low 70's with a nice breeze blowing off the water.

I had a beautiful day yesterday when I went out to Ft. Jefferson in the Dry Tortugas. It was a bit rough going out, about 6 foot swells. But it was sunny and breezy at the fort. Couldn't ask for a nicer day. It was great to feel the sun after 5 days of rain and cloudiness.

Tonight kicks off Fantasy Fest week and we certainly don't need a storm to threaten the festivities. Please keep any storm forming down in the Caribbean until at least the 31st.

Everyone have a great day and weekend.
306. 7544
Quoting eddye:
this could be florida first hurricanecoming out of the carribean keep on the look out florida


hmm you could be right

Link
Quoting Patrap:
I cant believe they didnt name 95L..





will you plz stop saying the same thing over and over 95L did not have that good of a ch it was uner vary high wind shear
AL962011 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

309. 7544
Quoting Tazmanian:




will you plz stop saying the same thing over and over 95L did not have that good of a ch it was uner vary high wind shear


hey taz you think 96l has a chance ?



Fairly strong spin starting......
312. eddye
tampaspin when the next cold front for jacksonville after this one and will it be strong wat does the models show
313. 7544
hmmm tampa the gfs makes it pretty strong could this be pull a nother wilma in track wise
VERy WEAK steering.........might move into South America if it develops much.





Convervence is a little NOrth of the Vorticity.

Quoting eddye:
tampaspin when the next cold front for jacksonville after this one and will it be strong wat does the models show


Go to my website and look at it.......all the graphics are there to check out.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There's a very good chance that 96L will, at least in my point of view, develop into Tropical Storm Rina. Good model support, adequate upper level conditions, and its creating a moist environment from that very dry air to its north. Plus, waters in the Caribbean are still very warm. It should have no problem, except maybe land interaction, spinning up into a tropical cyclone.


With the Euro now on board, it is a done deal right?
317. eddye
i cant get on there tampaspin it is blocked on my computer can u tell me wat it shows for the cold air
Quoting 7544:


hey taz you think 96l has a chance ?




yes and would be are last name storm
there appears to be some cyclonic turning in an area near 11N51W. also noted that the low clouds to the north of the venezuelan coast is converging towards the area of cyclonic turning. is it that a low pressure is trying to form in this general area
Quoting eddye:
i cant get on there tampaspin it is blocked on my computer can u tell me wat it shows for the cold air


Here you can see it......






Here is a link also....http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~swadley/nogaps/js_ani m_no_amer_sfc_sst.html
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


With the Euro now on board, it is a done deal right?



not really the mode runs can drop this at any time but i dont see it right now
Re: my previous post #300

IMHO, this is a fine example of how "real" scientists, initially skeptical of results and interpretations of others' work, conduct themselves.
323. eddye
how cold is that tampaspin low 40 again
Mornin'

Thanks for the images, loops and links Pat, Tim, Orca, 7544.

7544, that GEM loop is scary as hell. A 984mb storm crossing Florida just like Wilma's path. Frame 52 has the eye over ME.....Just say NO.

326. eddye
low 40 tampaspin
Quoting eddye:
low 40 tampaspin


Appears so.......i don't know?
328. eddye
wow next week we are going 2 get upper 30 and high for 60 love that weather
Quoting 7544:
hmmm tampa the gfs makes it pretty strong could this be pull a nother wilma in track wise
,no chance imo,either over central/eastern cuba or into nicargua/guatamala,fl and the gom are done for the season,closed.....probably a roag mid atlantic tc or two
That GEM loop also has the low deepening from just before landfall continuously to the maritimes. If it were come north a little further and then follow the same track, it could whack you in Tampa Tim, and then endanger the entire east coast on its way north.

329. stillwaiting
I so hope you are right
331. eddye
stillwaiting u are wrong we got wilma in late october remember and also hurricane andrew and that is where most of the storms come from in october the carribean that hit fl
Anyone want some M&M's while we watch 96L do what it wants to do? I've got plenty :-)
Quoting indianrivguy:
That GEM loop also has the low deepening from just before landfall continuously to the maritimes. If it were come north a little further and then follow the same track, it could whack you in Tampa Tim, and then endanger the entire east coast on its way north.


THAT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN........Tampa is protected...:)
Quoting stillwaiting:
,no chance imo,either over central/eastern cuba or into nicargua/guatamala,fl and the gom are done for the season,closed.....probably a roag mid atlantic tc or two



NO CHANCE........HUM.....i will remember that......i give you ONE Chance to take it back....LOL
Recon will fly on Saturday afternoon towards 96L.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 21 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-143

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 22/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 22/1530Z
D. 13.5N 80.0W
E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX SYSTEM AT 23/1800Z
NEAR 14.5N 80.5W.

Early models.


Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin'

Thanks for the images, loops and links Pat, Tim, Orca, 7544.

7544, that GEM loop is scary as hell. A 984mb storm crossing Florida just like Wilma's path. Frame 52 has the eye over ME.....Just say NO.




That is scary. Its hard to think tropical weather when its nice and cool outside.
But warmer weather expected with highs in the 80s lows in the 60s starting Sunday in my area (Ft. Myers).
Tropical Atlantic



On the Cold Core side starting out......Cause it is attached to the Cold Front.....
It appears this'll merge with a Noreaster and give the Northeast one incredible Halloween storm!!!
Quoting eddye:
stillwaiting u are wrong we got wilma in late october remember and also hurricane andrew and that is where most of the storms come from in october the carribean that hit fl


Andrew was an August storm bro, but I agree with your point.
343. eddye
wow then if it becomes a noreaster it could bequite cold in fl in jacksonville maybe mid 30
Is the NHC website down for anyone else??? Keeps saying Internet Explorer can't display the webpage, while all other websites are working.
Quoting alvarig1263:
Is the NHC website down for anyone else??? Keeps saying Internet Explorer can't display the webpage, while all other websites are working.


It's happening to me... started this morning.
I think 96L should be a TD/TS by tomorrow, I still think the Caribbean will crank out 2 more named storms beside Rina before the season is over , just my take.
Quoting whepton3:


It's happening to me... started this morning.


Started around midnight last night. Gonna ask the NHC on their Facebook page about it, see whats up.
Quoting WoodyFL:


BAMS force it into the Pacific, but note with 95L the first runs showed it being forced into the BOC. No consensus atm, but it appears it will drift northward in the Caribbean for several days.
I enter through the www.hurricanes.gov address and no problem here
Quoting whepton3:


It's happening to me... started this morning.


Do you have Google chrome, I find that the fastest and best!
Agree... Chrome is great.... I use it and no problems

Quoting stormpetrol:


Do you have Google chrome, I find that the fastest and best!
Quoting daddyjames:
Re: my previous post #300

IMHO, this is a fine example of how "real" scientists, initially skeptical of results and interpretations of others' work, conduct themselves.


It was an excellent article.
96L looks like it may be the TC we been waiting on, to come out of the Caribbean in the late season.
Quoting eddye:
stillwaiting u are wrong we got wilma in late october remember and also hurricane andrew and that is where most of the storms come from in october the carribean that hit fl

hurricane andrew was aug 24
Quoting alvarig1263:
Is the NHC website down for anyone else??? Keeps saying Internet Explorer can't display the webpage, while all other websites are working.


Same here..
Quoting hurricane23:


Same here..


I dont know if it has to do with location,but here in Puerto Rico,I have no problem going to that site.
AL, 96, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 800W, 25, 1008, LO,
Quoting FLHurricaneHunter:
Agree... Chrome is great.... I use it and no problems



www.hurricane.gov not working either. And using a different browser doesn't solve it either.
Quoting alvarig1263:


www.hurricane.gov not working either. And using a different browser doesn't solve it either.
It may be your carrier???
Quoting pottery:
A new study by an Independent group of US Scientists has concluded that the Earth is Warming......

How very strange!


Not news! The big questions are how much - questionable reliability of some data - and why.
Quoting klew136:

hurricane andrew was aug 24


The October storms that hit Florida in the past DID NOT happen in years where strong cold fronts had previously moved through and crashed the sea surface temperatures.

I think some people forget that hurricanes need the high octane fuel that comes from very warm (even almost 'hot') water temperatures to maintain their strength
and surge northward out of the Caribbean Sea to smash into Florida and points north. When the water temps drop well below 80F, as it happening right now in the Gulf and Atlantic above Cuba, the hurricanes fizzle once they cross into that zone.

Anyone can find forecast models this time of year which develop a storm in the Caribbean and then smash it into Florida. Those models have not yet had the rapidly changing or evolving SST profiles installed into their analytical data stream.

It seems as if nearly every year models are predicting a major storm to attack Florida from the South. And yes, that can happen, even in late October.. in SOME years. But it only happens when the cold fronts have not yet begun to push that far south. The year of 2005 (Wilma) was a perfect example. Nothing at all in the way of cooler air had moved over South Florida yet in that year and the sea surface temps were still abnormally warm for late October.

But guess what? This year is quite the opposite. The fronts are on the march, big time and the water temps are plunging like a rock. But don't believe me, go look at the data yourselves.
Good morning. 96L looks good.
Quoting kwgirl:
It may be your carrier???


Yeah, the guys at the NHC posted a few minutes ago on their Facebook page when I asked that it might be my ISP. I'm using Comcast here in (Naples) SW FL. All other sites I have accessed since last night have all been working fine, except for any links that include www.hurricanes.gov or www.nhc.noaa.gov
Quoting alvarig1263:


Yeah, the guys at the NHC posted a few minutes ago on their Facebook page when I asked that it might be my ISP. I'm using Comcast here in (Naples) SW FL. All other sites I have accessed since last night have all been working fine, except for any links that include www.hurricanes.gov or
www.nhc.noaa.gov


Also have comcast..any fix to this?
Quoting hurricane23:


Also have comcast..any fix to this?
Yeah, AT&T, Sprint, any other ISP :)
Quoting kwgirl:
Yeah, AT&T, Sprint, any other ISP :)


Well I'm not gonna change my ISP completely to get one site working that'll eventually probably fix itself. lol ;-)
Quoting klew136:

hurricane andrew was aug 24

Hurricane Andrew was also never in the Caribbean
One thing I think may be helping 96L is forced convergence due to the shape of coastline surrounding 96L. This is a similar situation as to what we see on the Bay of Campeche. 96L has been slowly but steadily organizing over the past few days and if current trends continue I believe recon will find a TD/TS tomorrow. The center still appears to be somewhat broad, but should tighten up with time. Hopefully 96L stays far enough away from Central America that it doesn't dump its heavy rains over the region. I'm afraid this won't be the case.
Quoting kwgirl:
Yeah, AT&T, Sprint, any other ISP :)


Have att&t on my iphone but in terms of comcast is there anywere around this?
237,294,300:
I don't see any trolls taking the bait yet
Quoting alvarig1263:


Well I'm not gonna change my ISP completely to get one site working that'll eventually probably fix itself. lol ;-)


Hopefully whatever is the issue it gets fixed.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
One thing I think may be helping 96L is forced convergence due to the shape of coastline surrounding 96L. This is a similar situation as to what we see on the Bay of Campeche. 96L has been slowly but steadily organizing over the past few days and if current trends continue I believe recon will find a TD/TS tomorrow. The center still appears to be somewhat broad, but should tighten up with time. Hopefully 96L stays far enough away from Central America that it doesn't dump its heavy rains over the region. I'm afraid this won't be the case.


Agree 100% on all of what you said.Let's see how it all pans out.
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
Rina here we come. Yet ANOTHER golden opportunity for out friends at the NHC to pad numbers and over-exaggerate to justify an insane hurricane season projection earlier this year.

Look out Cayman...this one is poised for you. Cuba gonna feel the outer feeder bands as well, with a possible direct hit.

Should be noted though the this thing is not expected to hit America...so really not very much to be seen or to worry about here.

I guess another 7 or 8 months until next hurricane season. *sigh*

Next please...



POOF
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
Rina here we come. Yet ANOTHER golden opportunity for out friends at the NHC to pad numbers and over-exaggerate to justify an insane hurricane season projection earlier this year.

Look out Cayman...this one is poised for you. Cuba gonna feel the outer feeder bands as well, with a possible direct hit.

Should be noted though the this thing is not expected to hit America...so really not very much to be seen or to worry about here.

I guess another 7 or 8 months until next hurricane season. *sigh*

Next please...

Agree with you that the NHC is full of it with their classifications and seemingly robust and over-sensationalized forecasting; however, am greatly under the impressive that you feel like only folks in the United States of America matter on this globe, and thus this blog.

If that is truly your mentality, let it be known that it does not reflect the mainstream views on this blog, as many readers and posters here are from Caribbean Inlands and countries in Central and South America.

Regards,
Cletus
Quoting FLWaterFront:


The October storms that hit Florida in the past DID NOT happen in years where strong cold fronts had previously moved through and crashed the sea surface temperatures.

I think some people forget that hurricanes need the high octane fuel that comes from very warm (even almost 'hot') water temperatures to maintain their strength
and surge northward out of the Caribbean Sea to smash into Florida and points north. When the water temps drop well below 80F, as it happening right now in the Gulf and Atlantic above Cuba, the hurricanes fizzle once they cross into that zone.

Anyone can find forecast models this time of year which develop a storm in the Caribbean and then smash it into Florida. Those models have not yet had the rapidly changing or evolving SST profiles installed into their analytical data stream.

It seems as if nearly every year models are predicting a major storm to attack Florida from the South. And yes, that can happen, even in late October.. in SOME years. But it only happens when the cold fronts have not yet begun to push that far south. The year of 2005 (Wilma) was a perfect example. Nothing at all in the way of cooler air had moved over South Florida yet in that year and the sea surface temps were still abnormally warm for late October.

But guess what? This year is quite the opposite. The fronts are on the march, big time and the water temps are plunging like a rock. But don't believe me, go look at the data yourselves.

Fantastic perspective. I absolutely love reading your well thought out posts and views. Thank you.
Any computer solutions on 96L? if so, which was is supposed to head to?
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
Rina here we come. Yet ANOTHER golden opportunity for out friends at the NHC to pad numbers and over-exaggerate to justify an insane hurricane season projection earlier this year.

Look out Cayman...this one is poised for you. Cuba gonna feel the outer feeder bands as well, with a possible direct hit.

Should be noted though the this thing is not expected to hit America...so really not very much to be seen or to worry about here.

I guess another 7 or 8 months until next hurricane season. *sigh*

Next please...


Models uncertain about potential impact to CONUS.

Several DO indicate a significant threat to the Florida Peninsula, including the GEM and Euro.

96L is nearing a window conducive to development and intensification.
Quoting hurricane23:


Same here..


Hey "killer," good to see you.
From a USA today interview about water temps and tropical storm formation.
This was the year of Hurricane Wilma.

Q: Were the Gulf of Mexico's water temperatures unusually warm this year? If so, is that why there were so many major hurricanes?

A: The Gulf of Mexico is shallower than the open ocean, so much like a backyard kiddie pool, it heats up quickly under the blazing summer sun. While preliminary data indicate that the Gulf water temperatures were slightly above normal this year, warm water is only one factor that can strengthen storms. In the cases of Katrina and Rita, and to a lesser extent, Wilma, these hurricanes strengthened rapidly in the Gulf not only because of warm Gulf waters, but also because of very favorable atmospheric conditions, such as low wind shear and upper-level high pressure.

That leads me to 95L.
95L just couldn't get its act together because of all the shear over the GOM. The water temps were warm enough for development but the shear was just too great.
SST Map:



Water is warm enough to support a cyclone all the way to N. Florida.
Quoting OKJunkie:


Not news! The big questions are how much - questionable reliability of some data - and why.

But this is news; the results of the study were just released yesterday, and there truly are no big questions left to answer so far as it's concerned. The primary purpose of the BEST project was to validate (or invalidate) the temperature data previous gathered through the NOAA, NASA GISS, and HadCRU methodologies. Those final results say that the data have indeed been validated; the planet is warming, just as climate scientists have been saying for years that it has been.
Love how people are screaming they're padding the numbers, and then you have storms like 93L. If they where padding numbers, why wasn't it named? Please. Its not the NHC padding numbers, they're doing their job, its the fact the Atlantic keeps on PRODUCING anemic, but classifiable, tropical cyclones. Get a grip.
I just composed a blog entry on 96L for anyone who is interested.

You can find it here.
12Z GFS at 120 hours.....

12Z GFS at 132 hours:



the ridge is starting to erode as a trough moves in.
Quoting whepton3:
SST Map:



Water is warm enough to support a cyclone all the way to N. Florida.


Look at this same map in about three days

Also, it is hard not to notice the little strips of blue beginning to show up far out to sea in the Gulf. And notice the sharp contrast between the Gulf temps and those in the Caribbean. And all of this data was from yesterday, whereas the water temperatures are on the downslide right now in response to a mountain of cool or cold high pressure overhead. In other words, each day the SSTs will be cooler than the day before, until at least Sunday/Monday when the trend should level off.

Another factor is what was posted above by someone else, which is the atmospheric profile. Next week, we are going to have yet another strong trough moving in, which will be followed by the coldest air mass of the season. Nighttime temperatures well down into the Florida Peninsula could be reaching record cold levels, as low as the mid-30s in some places.

All in all that spells doom for any tropical cyclone that tries to head northward into this buzz saw environment. However, a hurricane hitting Cuba is a much greater possibility, as usual for late October and November with Caribbean storms. And if so, look for it to be quickly shunted off to the ENE with the winds in the upper and middle levels of the atmosphere.
12Z GFS at 165 hours:



This run was more west of the last run.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
12Z GFS at 165 hours:



This run was more west of the last run.


Most euro ensembles have this drifting northward in time.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Look at this same map in about three days

Also, it is hard not to notice the little strips of blue beginning to show up far out to sea in the Gulf. And notice the sharp contrast between the Gulf temps and those in the Caribbean. And all of this data was from yesterday, whereas the water temperatures are on the downslide right now in response to a mountain of cool or cold high pressure overhead. In other words, each day the SSTs will be cooler than the day before, until at least Sunday/Monday when the trend should level off.

Another factor is what was posted above by someone else, which is the atmospheric profile. Next week, we are going to have yet another strong trough moving in, which will be followed by the coldest air mass of the season. Nighttime temperatures well down into the Florida Peninsula could be reaching record cold levels, as low as the mid-30s in some places.

All in all that spells doom for any tropical cyclone that tries to head northward into this buzz saw environment. However, a hurricane hitting Cuba is a much greater possibility, as usual for late October and November with Caribbean storms. And if so, look for it to be quickly shunted off to the ENE with the winds in the upper and middle levels of the atmosphere.


It actually warms up in the next three days:

Miami NWS forecast:

REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 60 TO 64. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO
15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS 70 TO 74.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.


nice visible
Hurricane immunity: Indian blessings, iron deposits in the bay, ionic flux — there are many theories for why no hurricane has hit Tampa Bay since 1921. Jeff Masters of weatherunderground.com offers this: As the Earth rotates, three major bands of wind blow in alternating directions. In the tropics, the band moves east, and in the mid-latitudes area, the band moves west. Tampa Bay falls between those bands and that could shift storms away from us. Or, he adds, maybe we're just lucky. Did Dr. Masters really say this? Link
...Well anyways if he did, great explanation Doc. It would be nice to see a chart or map of the steering currents and sea surface temperatures for the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane, in that way we all could see what kind of a special set-up it takes for a storm to hit Tampa, and try to play with the different scenarios to see which is the most plausible for such an occurrence.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 21 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-143

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 22/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 22/1530Z
D. 13.5N 80.0W
E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX SYSTEM AT 23/1800Z
NEAR 14.5N 80.5W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK....NEGATIVE.
396. 7544
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
12Z GFS at 165 hours:



This run was more west of the last run.


yeap looks like the gfs has it just missing fla by a hair wait to see other runs could change stay tuned
Quoting whepton3:


It actually warms up in the next three days:

Miami NWS forecast:

REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 60 TO 64. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO
15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS 70 TO 74.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.


Yes but I was talking about the sea surface temps and what will happen there, not the air temps. Besides, that is the Miami NWS forecast and to get an accurate feel for the sea surface temperature trends one must look at the entire vast region, not just one tiny area at the southeastern-most corner of it.

The GFS model forecast is probably fairly accurate in terms of what may happen with 96L, at least through 144 hours. Beyond that I expect whatever forms with that system will be turning toward the NE in response to the approaching strong trough.

This is actually a common occurrence in the Western Caribbean not only in late October but also in November, for a hurricane to form south of Cuba, eventually cross Cuba and then quickly be shunted off to the NE or to the ENE as a rapidly weakening system. Caribbean Sea water temperatures never really cool down all that much but it is a far different story north of there.

And oddly enough, that same exact region often serves as a demarkation line for the atmosphere as well during this time of year. One often sees fronts stall out near Cuba or just south of there, with the highest wind shear being to the north and an entirely different atmospheric profile existing to the south.
Happy rapture day everyone!
Quoting FLWaterFront:


The October storms that hit Florida in the past DID NOT happen in years where strong cold fronts had previously moved through and crashed the sea surface temperatures.

I think some people forget that hurricanes need the high octane fuel that comes from very warm (even almost 'hot') water temperatures to maintain their strength
and surge northward out of the Caribbean Sea to smash into Florida and points north. When the water temps drop well below 80F, as it happening right now in the Gulf and Atlantic above Cuba, the hurricanes fizzle once they cross into that zone.

Anyone can find forecast models this time of year which develop a storm in the Caribbean and then smash it into Florida. Those models have not yet had the rapidly changing or evolving SST profiles installed into their analytical data stream.

It seems as if nearly every year models are predicting a major storm to attack Florida from the South. And yes, that can happen, even in late October.. in SOME years. But it only happens when the cold fronts have not yet begun to push that far south. The year of 2005 (Wilma) was a perfect example. Nothing at all in the way of cooler air had moved over South Florida yet in that year and the sea surface temps were still abnormally warm for late October.

But guess what? This year is quite the opposite. The fronts are on the march, big time and the water temps are plunging like a rock. But don't believe me, go look at the data yourselves.


I dont know why you directed this to me? I only was letting the person who posted Andrew as an Oct storm, that it was a Aug storm. I had no other comment to suggest anything else at all. I dont dispute whatsoever what you are saying.
look at the visisble to the east of the bolb is that a mid lvl or low lvl spin?
Good Read about the 1921 Hurricane from NOAA

The morning of the event a small column on the front page of the Tampa Times was
dedicated to warning the public of the impending disaster. The final statement given by
Meteorologist W. J. Bennett at 11:30 on October 24, 1921 was that, “we are apparently in
the apparent path of the storm, but in the past in practically identical circumstances,
similar storms have always veered either to the north or the south of us, and probably this
one will do likewise.” Well we all know what happens next.

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