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NOAA report unable to pinpoint causes of the historic 2012 U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:27 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

The extreme 2012 drought in the Central Great Plains of the U.S. was more intense than any drought since record keeping began in 1895, says a new NOAA assessment of the historic drought, released Thursday. However, the study was unable to pinpoint the cause of the drought. Other major global droughts in recent years have been linked to global warming and/or natural variation in patterns of sea surface temperatures, but these factors were seemingly not important in causing the drought of 2012, said the team of 19 atmospheric scientists, led by Martin Hoerling of the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program (MAPP). Their study attributed the drought to a random natural variation in the jet stream, which caused it to become "stuck" far to the north in Canada. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, the northwards displacement of the jet stream resulted in abnormally dry conditions over the Central U.S. "This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said Hoerling.



Key findings of the report
The researchers focused on a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa, and found that the amount of precipitation in 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average. This was the driest year since record keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous record driest years of 1934 and 1936, during the great Dust Bowl drought.

The researchers called the 2012 drought a "flash drought"--it developed suddenly in May, and was unrelated to the 2011 drought over Texas and surrounding states. The 2011 drought had a separate and well-understood trigger (a change in the jet stream and storm tracks, due to a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific.)

The 2012 drought was not predicted by long-range weather forecast models. The new report concluded that our ability to predict drought is limited, but some new experimental techniques could improve future drought forecasts. For example, NOAA's long-range GFDL forecast model and the European EUROSIP model correctly anticipated the summer 2012 heat and dryness over the Central U.S. in projections made as early as January 2012.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Over a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa--precipitation during 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average., making it the driest year since record keeping began in 1895. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Criticism of the report
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research was critical of the report's conclusions. In comments posted in Joe Romm's blog at climateprogress.org, Dr. Trenberth said that the study failed to "say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring" and "no attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health" in the climate model runs performed.

I would have liked to have seen the paper mention the growing body of research that has linked unusually early May snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice loss in recent years to unusual summertime jet stream patterns, like the jet stream pattern observed during 2012. A March 2013 paper by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. This causes the jet stream pattern to freeze in place and amplify, leading to months-long periods of weather extremes. They showed that warming of the Arctic due to human-caused climate change might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of the more extreme examples of this resonance occurred during the summer of 2012, and could have been the cause of the 2012 drought.

Other blogs on the report
Yes, Climate Change Is Worsening U.S. Drought — NOAA Report Needlessly Confuses The Issue by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org

Global Warming Not Significant in 2012 Drought: Report by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Drought Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



112
WFUS54 KLIX 141327
TORLIX
LAC087-141400-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0034.130414T1327Z-130414T1400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
827 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 825 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
YSCLOSKEY...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHALMETTE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED PARISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MSC035-141545-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0049.130414T1351Z-130414T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
851 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PETAL...HATTIESBURG...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 851 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR HATTIESBURG...OR NEAR
WEST HATTIESBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. ESTIMATED RADAR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO THREE INCHES...HAVE
OCCURRED IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RAWLS
SPRINGS...MCLAURIN...SUNRISE...EASTABUCHIE AND MACEDONIA

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO
HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF HIGHWAYS
AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.
gee we could USE that 1-3 inches HERE around Tampa bay,not in the cards....
NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay 14h
Widespread storms stay north on Sunday. Scattered storms migrate inland with the sea-breeze over the peninsula
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST HAZARD BEING
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY IN DENSE PATCHES COULD FALL BELOW 1 MILE. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
On the topic of quality and cutting-edge climatology science, we have this parting shot from now-retired NASA scientist James Hansen (and Pushker A. Kharecha):
Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es3051197?jou rnalCode=esthag


"On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000–7.04 million deaths and 80–240 [gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent] emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power."

Good on Hansen to compare two mainstream energy paths and thus keep his opposition to natural gas clear of the issue of the limits of greener energy alternatives. But now Hansen is off to the tar sands and probably more jail time for his pipeline protests, so here is a plug for that yet-greener path.

Suppose we could pay for the development of renewable energy resources in every community on the planet without taking a dime from any national treasury or borrowing a penny from any bank, and suppose all that money stayed in these communities to empower the local development and control of every essential resource. I'm talking about people power. Might that be worth a shot? More than 700 people from more than 40 nations have signed onto a member-owned global network supporting this solution, and the membership is now growing by 7-10% a week. A summary of the info is here:


Reconomy - building the world of the future with the money of the future. http://reconomy.net/Reconomy/policy6.html
good morning everyone...

Imelda could reach 75 mph again...but not for long
What a mess on the Gulf Coast this morning, tons of rain coming down with these showers and storms, and a couple of them are producing damaging wind:

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
good morning everyone...

Imelda could reach 75 mph again...but not for long

I'd say it's already blown well past the 75mph mark.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 965.4mb/ 90.0kt



Imelda has certainly had an up and down ride:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'd say it's already blown well past the 75mph mark.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 965.4mb/ 90.0kt



Imelda has certainly had an up and down ride:



well 90 kt (105 mph) it's a bit too high for me...
but possible
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TORNADO WATCH 105 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC005-013-029-033-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-07 3-077-079-091-
113-123-129-131-133-142200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0105.130414T1500Z-130414T2200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY CALHOUN DIXIE
ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GADSDEN
GULF HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA TAYLOR WAKULLA
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TORNADO WATCH 105 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC005-013-029-033-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-07 3-077-079-091-
113-123-129-131-133-142200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0105.130414T1500Z-130414T2200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY CALHOUN DIXIE
ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GADSDEN
GULF HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA TAYLOR WAKULLA
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$


Loooks like the SPC has changed their outlook in our area. I've been thinking they should as we may just get some violent thunderstorms here later given that surface cyclogenesis is already occurring and that means the warm front may lift north of here later.
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TORNADO WATCH 105 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

GAC027-087-131-185-253-275-142200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0105.130414T1500Z-130414T2200Z/

GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROOKS DECATUR GRADY
LOWNDES SEMINOLE THOMAS
$$
stay alert Jedkins,some nasty storms by you............
March 1993..the storm of the century.............
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'd say it's already blown well past the 75mph mark.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 965.4mb/ 90.0kt



Imelda has certainly had an up and down ride:



I would say yes. A very tight eye. A TS don't have eye's like that. under estimated much!!

7 day for Tampa bay area..........
Any publicity is good publicity.
H7N9 bird flu update.

It appears to be spreading. Two new cases today, the first ones reported from Henan province. First case reported from Beijing, yesterday. That makes a total of 60 confirmed cases and 13 deaths.

Most cases are probably from poultry, although there is some preliminary evidence of person to person transmission.

Researchers announced a few days ago that it's mutating eight times faster than 'normal', and expressed concerns that this could result in a strain that spreads easily between people.

Won't be time to start worrying until health care workers start going down with it.

This site's a bit of an ordeal to navigate, and it's multilingual, but it's the best I've found for up to the minute information.





www.flutrackers.com
Blizzard warnings up for North Dakota... (well for nearly 3 hours already up)

a new storm next week for you! :(

759 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
CDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS THEN IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
CDT MONDAY.

* TIMING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

* HAZARD...HEAVY SNOW FROM DICKINSON AND KILLDEER TO BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN WILL RECEIVE 10 TO 16 INCHES. PLACES LIKE CROSBY...
WILLISTON... BOWMAN AND HETTINGER WILL RECEIVE 6 TO 10 INCHES. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW.
Good Morning and Happy Sunday. For the North Florida crowd; not really expecting a huge tornado threat this afternoon in my neck of the woods (Big Bend)in spite of the watch but plenty of rain a t-storms (second round) this afternoon. See NWS discussion below. Good day to stay indoors an do chores or go to the movies. I did the laundry this am; gonna go to the movies in a little bit and chomp some popcorn..... :)

See Yall tomorrow unless severe weather picks up around here later this evening and stay safe out to my West in the Panhandle; your part of Florida tends to get to brunt of severe weather for North Florida before the fronts die down as they approach the Big Bend..............WW.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1124 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
UPDATED
At 11 am EDT, Warm front was located across extreme nrn gulf with storms strong to severe storms developing along and just to north of boundary across E/Cntrl gulf..... There remains sufficient shear to develop organized bows and with increasing upper divergence from approaching shortwave/trough
should allow these bows to overcome current stable surface later and reach ground this aftn/early eve as warm front lifts nwd. also meso-vortices along boundary can generate waterspouts and isold
tornados.

Local WRF guidance suggest that the timing of storms today will start with showers moving inland around 8 AM EDT this morning, staying along the Florida coast. A line of thunderstorms develops to our west and enters the western part of the forecast area around 3 PM EDT. It starts as a line from Destin to Dothan and moves eastward through the afternoon and evening. The strongest storms stay in Florida, but showers and thunderstorms will still effect our Alabama and Georgia counties.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1052 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

ALC003-141600-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-130414T1600Z/
BALDWIN AL-
1052 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 1047 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROBERTSDALE TO 4 MILES EAST OF FOLEY TO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ORANGE BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LINE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY SOON BE CANCELLED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORANGE BEACH... GULF SHORES... SUMMERDALE...
ROBERTSDALE... LILLIAN... FOLEY...
ELBERTA... BON SECOUR...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 56 AND 66.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..well Saturday Night Live did a skit last night about The Weather Channel..its official..they have officially became a joke..





Awww, it won't let me watch it from the UK, boooo. Not like get SNL here anyway geesh!


We're finally out of the freezer in N Wales. When I got home from work last night, was a balmy 52'.....though horribly windy and rainy. Rain stopped here this afternoon, though not the winds, really bad. Everything all flooded again too as was torrential from yesterday evening through this morning. But, isn't freezing, so something!
Powerful squall line.

Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Awww, it won't let me watch it from the UK, boooo. Not like get SNL here anyway geesh!


We're finally out of the freezer in N Wales. When I got home from work last night, was a balmy 52'.....though horribly windy and rainy. Rain stopped here this afternoon, though not the winds, really bad. Everything all flooded again too as was torrential from yesterday evening through this morning. But, isn't freezing, so something!
.

Try this >>>>> Link
The SPC has put a slight risk up for a large area of FL, including a 5% tornado area:

Reed Timmer ‏@reedtimmerTVN
One year ago today was a prolific tornado outbreak in the Southern Plains w/ 153 tornadoes, including this drill bit.

Severe weather across the southeast today...tornado watches up

might update it later


Also, if you missed my new blog yesterday (for a reason or another), check it out. The new big list counting 88 people is there.



Watch out Central and especially north Florida peninsula, this system may have caught people by surprise as the Peninsula wasn't even in a see text as of last night, lol.

The SPC is responding to the fact that this system has evolved into one that poses greater severe parameters than the models were suggesting the last few days. They have responded to this change fortunately very quickly.

Now I don't think there will be an outbreak, but there could be at least few severe cells across North and Central Florida today given this:












As the warm front lifts north, expect the high instability over Central Florida to expand into North Florida where the greater dynamics will lie.


Further south into Central Florida is tricky because its already very unstable, most notably for severe weather is the ML CAPE at 2000 j/KG which is very significant. However, this low pressure system is more compact like a tropical system, so its uncertain whether an organized squall line will extend south in time before it passes across Florida. If an organized line of thunderstorms DOES develop in the gulf, watch out as many more hours of heating are set to occur.


Here in the Eastern Panhandle/Big Bend its also tricky because its hard to say whether the warm front will lift north of here in time for thunderstorms to become surface based, if it does, very high Helicity, strong shear, and strong dynamics will bring a tornado threat into Tallahassee.
IMELDA
Blob blowing up in the East Pacific..click pic for loop.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141703Z - 141830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON OVER CNTRL FL AND
EVENTUALLY SCNTRL AND NCNTRL FL. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY OVER CNTRL THROUGH NCNTRL FL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL
FL FROM NEAR MELBOURNE TO NORTH OF THE TAMPA AREA. NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING...AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 SUPPORTING MLCAPE
FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR MELBOURNE ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE SEA BREEZE
AND SEA BREEZE-WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. WHILE FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM IS RATHER
WEAK...MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL UNDERGO A MODEST INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-45 KT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH EITHER THE WARM FRONT OR
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

..DIAL/KERR.. 04/14/2013


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 26888136 28078235 29408242 29598166 28638106 27218057
26888136
Atmosphere has been way more unstable here in East Central FL than yesterday..really muggy too. Had some lightning & mostly scattered big drops of rain so far.
549. MahFL
We had heavy rain and thunder and the temps have cooled to 66 F now, in Orange Park.
550. MahFL
The humidity shot up from 34% to 62%.
551. VR46L
Some cells popping up in central Florida

Interesting ob at this time, to me, at least.
Our high temp today is progged to be 70-71 our low tonight, 66, currently it's 58.6 on da Bayou.
second run in a row for the CMC but the 12z run has a stronger storm forming off the east coast of Florida..not skilled on determining if tropical characteristics without the FSU assistance which doesnt go out in long range..anyone know if tropical or just a regular NE runner?





554. VR46L
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Interesting ob at this time, to me, at least.
Our high temp today is progged to be 70-71 our low tonight, 66, currently it's 58.6 on da Bayou.


Be careful up there !! Some Nasties out in the Gulf

Gearsts,what does your post in 541 show?
12z GFS has "something" moving up the east coast as well in the same time frame as the CMC but not as strong





WOUS64 KWNS 141750
WOU6

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TORNADO WATCH 106 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-003-007-009-017-019-023-031-035-041-047-053 -057-069-075-
083-089-095-097-101-105-107-109-117-119-121-125-12 7-150200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0106.130414T1755Z-130415T0200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
BREVARD CITRUS CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO
HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY
MARION NASSAU ORANGE
OSCEOLA PASCO POLK
PUTNAM SEMINOLE ST. JOHNS
SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION
VOLUSIA


GAC039-049-065-101-299-150200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0106.130414T1755Z-130415T0200Z/

GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
ECHOLS WARE


AMZ450-452-454-550-552-GMZ850-150200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0106.130414T1755Z-130415T0200Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

02016

VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...




Quoting FirstCoastMan:
Gearsts,what does your post in 541 show?
Slow trade winds with a positive NAO.
Yep...new tornado watch for central-northern Florida...
l'll update my map soon

em>Between 8-12 April, five earthquakes were located within or along the margins of the Newberry caldera by the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN, www.pnsn.org). The first two occurred at 04:19 & 04:20 PDT on 04/08 and were followed over the next 20 minutes by eight smaller (and therefore unlocatable) earthquakes. "Three days later at 5:01 PDT a "low-frequency event", so-called because it lacks higher-frequency waves that are commonly observed in regular earthquakes, occurred at a depth of cc. 8 km. Finally on 04/12 two additional earthquakes occurred at 02:28 and 04:06 PDT. The largest of these five events was a M 1.2. These five events appear as orange or red (two most recent) circles in the below map-view plot. "Although these five events are nothing to get excited about, they are noteworthy because only six other earthquakes have been located within or along the margins of the Newberry caldera since the Newberry seismic network was expanded from one to nine seismic stations in the summer of 2011 (none of these events would have been detected prior to 2011).

"In addition, the 04/11 event is the first low-frequency event ever recorded in the Newberry area. Low-frequency events are not unusual at volcanoes, and when observed are commonly thought to reflect movement of fluid (water, gas, or other) through cracks. Given that there are active hot springs within the caldera, the occasional occurrence of such events should not be surprising. "An unusual feature of this low-frequency event is its depth (8 km). Since the 1980s, such "deep low-frequency events" have been seen intermittently at Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, and Mount St. Helens. At these other volcanoes the deep low-frequency events occur as part of background seismicity and have not been associated with eruptions or unrest at the surface (for more information about these type of events in the Cascades, see Nichols et al. (2011)). Although intriguing from a volcanological perspective, these events are again nothing to get excited about.
The latest MDR data shows some warming again.

562. VR46L
Looks like the Golf might get some interesting weather

Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS has "something" moving up the east coast as well in the same time frame as the CMC but not as strong

Looking at the 850 mb plots with temp I see a rush of cold air over the eastern U.S. at the same time, so it looks very extratropical.
Largo... this could be the shield buster day for you. stay safe man.

Skye...adding to your comment 560

I was shocked back in 2010 after I was noticing the unusual quake activity just after the year begun.

Haiti gets the lethal 7.0 in January (over 316 THOUSAND people!!!) ...scary, then the huge 8.8 in Chile a month after, then Baja California/California gets hit by the 7.2 in April in that same month a big 7.8 hits Indonesia immediately followed by a deadly 6.9 in China killing nearly 2,700 people...

I'm afraid to continue...that year was extreme in quakes

Calexico (or Mexicali) quake of 2010 by USGS
Quoting AussieStorm:
.

Try this >>>>> Link


Wooo thank you Aussie! Looks to be working :)
I noticed that a tornado watch was just issued for Central FL counties. Does a tornado watch automatically include a severe thunderstorm watch, plus the risk of tornadoes as well? I had always assumed that is does. I just ask, however, because the hazardous weather outlook, issued around the same time, mentions the possibility of strong (but not severe) thunderstorms.
Radar has indicated considerable rotation within this storm offshore of the FL panhandle. If it survives to the coast it could end up with a tornado warning.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...

VALID 141805Z - 141930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 105 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A COUPLE TORNADOES PERSIST
OVER THE REMAINING PARTS OF WW 105 INCLUDING THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO THREAT IS SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS SRN HALF
OF THE FL PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL ZONES AROUND OR EAST
OF APALACHICOLA...AND APPEARS TO BE MORE MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT
INLAND.

DISCUSSION...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST TORNADO
THREAT SO FAR HAS BEEN THE INABILITY OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO
ADVANCE INLAND. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL SHOW THE WARM FRONT
OFFSHORE OVER THE NRN GULF. STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HAVE EXHIBITED OCCASIONAL BOWING STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH COMMA HEAD MOVING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
PANHANDLE...WHILE DISCRETE SFC BASED STORMS HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE
NEAR THE FRONT. AS A RESULT THE PRIMARY NEAR TERM THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WIND INLAND FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST MAINLY ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.

..DIAL.. 04/14/2013


ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON 29598353 29728511 30138567 30698537 30678395 30318324
29598353
I was wondering about that one.



Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Radar has indicated considerable rotation within this storm offshore of the FL panhandle. If it survives to the coast it could end up with a tornado warning.

571. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:



Watch out Central and especially north Florida peninsula, this system may have caught people by surprise as the Peninsula wasn't even in a see text as of last night, lol.





DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

...NERN GULF COAST AND N-CNTRL FL/SRN GA...
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS INVOF NRN GULF COAST REGION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS N AND E DURING
THE DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE NERN GULF COAST. DESPITE
MODEST INSTABILITY...A VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE INVOF THE
FRONT AND STRONG SWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW UPDRAFTS
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

FARTHER E ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...GREATER AFTERNOON
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...BUT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN W OF THE REGION UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THUS...DEGREE
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED --
LIKELY TIED TO SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS JUSTIFIED FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS...BUT WILL REFRAIN
FROM ANY PROBABILITY UPGRADE ATTM UNTIL DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...CNTRL FL PENINSULA...

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM IN THE GENERATION AND MAINTENANCE OF MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS AN MCS ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD. STRONG/ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG THE NOSE OF
A 40KT LLJ. AS THIS JET SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE
THE FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE ERN GULF
COAST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
HEATING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WELL AHEAD OF
THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE AFFILIATED WITH
FOCUSED LLJ. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND
NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION EVOLVES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY WILL NOT INTRODUCE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME.

TORNADO WATCH..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!............. TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TORNADO WATCH 106 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-003-007-009-017-019-023-031-035-041-047-05 3-057-069-075-
083-089-095-097-101-105-107-109-117-119-121-125-1 27-150200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0106.130414T1755Z-130415T0200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
BREVARD CITRUS CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO
HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY
MARION NASSAU ORANGE
OSCEOLA PASCO POLK
PUTNAM SEMINOLE ST. JOHNS
SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION
VOLUSIA
$$
ooohh




rain here
steady soaking rain, more than expected

LOOKS LIKE THE TORNADO WATCH IS FROM THE I-4 corridor northward..this includes Orlando etc........i just knew the air was kinda funky as i walked the dogs..something in the air just does not seem right...stay alert folks in central florida.
not sure if posted yet

Quoting LargoFl:
LOOKS LIKE THE TORNADO WATCH IS FROM THE I-4 corridor northward..this includes Orlando etc........i just knew the air was kinda funky as i walked the dogs..something in the air just does not seem right...stay alert folks in central florida.
It does seem energetic. I wonder if the severe weather will make it this far south though.
Quoting Thrawst:
Largo... this could be the shield buster day for you. stay safe man.

Thanks..i was off the web and didnt know about this..whew..this caught me by surprise,guess it caught the nws also by surprise..was only a slight chance of showers..now its different..
Quoting LargoFl:
LOOKS LIKE THE TORNADO WATCH IS FROM THE I-4 corridor northward..this includes Orlando etc........i just knew the air was kinda funky as i walked the dogs..something in the air just does not seem right...stay alert folks in central florida.


It certainly feels muggy and hot, I just got back from running 3 miles and WOW, I shouldn't gone until 4pm. I came back to the house looking like I just got back from Wet N' Wild.
Quoting SouthTampa:
It does seem energetic. I wonder if the severe weather will make it this far south though.
yes things have changed, we need stay alert now, i just hope the sun doesnt break thru the cloud cover, we dont need daytime heating creating instability...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It certainly feels muggy and hot, I just got back from running 3 miles and WOW, I shouldn't gone until 4pm. I came back to the house looking like I just got back from Wet N' Wild.
yeah the air sure is thick with moisture..whew
A tornado watch has been issued for Hillsborough, Pasco, Polk, Hernando and Citrus counties until 10 p.m. tonight.

Klystron 9 radar shows a band of rain moving into the northern part of the state from the Gulf of Mexico.

Watch Weather on the Nines on Bay News 9 for the latest information.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes things have changed, we need stay alert now, i just hope the sun doesnt break thru the cloud cover, we dont need daytime heating creating instability...
It's been popping through here (33609) occasionally. Feels soupy; I think only a small spark would set us off for some violent weather.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ750-770-142000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.MA.W.0057.130414T1837Z-130414T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
137 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA CITY FL TO DESTIN FL OUT 60 NM OVER GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 135 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS...MOVING EAST AT 40 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3010 8568 2928 8572 2937 8651 2998 8650
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 269DEG 42KT 3017 8609 2940 8613

$$

22-BARRY
About right... another drenching deluge over SE LA where additional rain is about as welcome as more snow accumulation around Fargo -- SE LA radar estimates...

Saturday was a deceptively nice tranquil day, but as expected conditions rapidly deteriorated by nightfall w developing strong tstms along coastal SE LA lifting inland with short wave / warm front backing up / moisture advection, bringing intense CG lightning, lot of nickel size hail, winds 40-60 mph with bowing segments and rotating cells... with hvy rainfall thru overnight tallying widespread 2-4" / up to 6" and flash flooding in spots prompting warnings...

All NWS offices been forecasting event well ahead in AFD's, yet early last night as radar showed intensifying strong tstms with hail cores quickly approaching here, I had to scoff at this (irrelevant) 0Z sounding discussion from KLIX NWS issued after 8 PM Sat night, one that was utterly worthless regarding our impending weather - WTF? Other than noting the jet streak, it only describes preceding (downstream) conditions that remained thru 0Z at Slidell... and up to that point could not reveal the rapid (upstream) atmospheric evolution less than 100 miles to their SW.
Certainly I understand the particulars but wonder how "average joe" interpreted it (if they read it) making plans for the evening... ;)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
809 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND 650-600MB TODAY...BUT THE REGION BELOW 700MB REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY. AS A RESULT...OVERALL PW VALUES REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH...WITH CURRENT VALUES SITTING AT 0.72 INCHES. THIS IS AN INCREASE OF AROUND 0.30 INCHES FROM THIS MORNING... BUT STILL WELL BELOW THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEEDED TO SUPPORT RAINFALL THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY... MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK WHICH HAS SERVED TO LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. A STRONG 110 KNOT JET STREAK HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA SINCE THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

Good luck those of you getting it now, hope you need the rain more than I do. Let's see... that brings me to 5.35" for April, up to 22.26" for this year (thankfully had a dry March)... All on the heels of a VERY WET 83.51" in 2012, like much of the N Gulf region was in sharp contrast to the Plains / Midwest - no drought here...

588. beell



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT/315 PM EDT/

* AT 140 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 31 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE SAN
BLAS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes things have changed, we need stay alert now, i just hope the sun doesnt break thru the cloud cover, we dont need daytime heating creating instability...



Instability is already significant over Central Florida, there is plenty enough to support surface based severe weather:








Updating my map for the SE severe weather...
more updates if necessary



click on image for larger view
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
241 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-142030-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0003.130414T1841Z-130414T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BREVARD-
241 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN INLET...SATELLITE BEACH...
ROCKLEDGE...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...PALM BAY...MERRITT ISLAND...
MELBOURNE...MALABAR...INDIALANTIC...GRANT...COCOA BEACH...COCOA...
CAPE CANAVERAL...CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...BAREFOOT BAY...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

* AT 237 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BREVARD
COUNTY. MELBOURNE HAS RECEIVED NEARLY 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST
HOUR WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS
TRAIN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2785 8046 2787 8048 2782 8051 2783 8078
2840 8082 2840 8074 2838 8073 2840 8072
2840 8066 2833 8065 2837 8062 2840 8063
2840 8059 2826 8060 2813 8057 2786 8044

$$


MOSES
GFS for 8pm tonight...................


Looks like the weather is going cooler for a few. Wouldn't be a good Beach day. 61.0 here right now.

Quite an active end to a week...

Temperature-wise, one might assume that if conditions are favorable for severe storms / tornados in the FL Panhandle, with temps running from 60 - 70 F, that temps here on the Peninsula in the mid-80s would be adequate for such storms.
599. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:


Been looking at that stuff off the Panhandle for a while there seems to be some nasty stuff in it and I see a warning has gone up...



WUUS52 KTAE 141842
SVRTAE
FLC037-141915-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0086.130414T1842Z-130414T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
142 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT/315 PM EDT/

* AT 140 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 31 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE SAN
BLAS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 2961 8508 2963 8515 2965 8516 2969 8509
2967 8506 2963 8509 2962 8507 2961 8502
2963 8495 2967 8489 2967 8482 2958 8504
2958 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 241DEG 37KT 2947 8527

$$
BARRY
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Temperature-wise, one might assume that if conditions are favorable for severe storms / tornados in the FL Panhandle, with temps running from 60 - 70 F, that temps here on the Peninsula in the mid-80s would be adequate for such storms.
yes its going to be a very watchful evening around central florida..until 10pm i think the nws said.
Looks as if the severe threat will slide just south of Tallahassee as usual with these type of events, probably going to just get some nice heavy rain with some thunder here.
edited..wrong run
Quoting PedleyCA:


Looks like the weather is going cooler for a few. Wouldn't be a good Beach day. 61.0 here right now.



What's the cause for all the low clouds always being over that area?
Quoting ncstorm:
edited..wrong run


I think I saw something there... did not have a "senior moment" then... lol
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I think I saw something there... did not have a "senior moment" I had then... lol


it was the 12z run from yesterday..I needed the one from today:)
These two cells are the most likely dangerous (big winds, tornado-producers) storms...I think
about to move ashore, especially the 1st one..


a couple of convective cloud areas out over gulf moving ene towards tampa strong south sea breeze flow coming up over south fla good feeding supply for storms

Just came in from working in the yard all morning to check the real weather forcast here. It's raining to the north and south of the DeLand, FL area,which is what has happened the last 2 weeks! We need rain, but not the storms. The sun just came out...please just rain.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC037-142015-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0087.130414T1921Z-130414T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
321 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT/315 PM CDT/

* AT 215 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ST GEORGE ISLAND...
OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 2962 8507 2962 8498 2968 8486 2969 8490
2972 8489 2968 8486 2969 8482 2979 8467
2980 8463 2984 8458 2983 8456 2979 8458
2977 8468 2968 8478 2959 8498 2958 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 245DEG 27KT 2961 8496

$$
Im off subject but am wondering if the red river is still going to flood yet as Jeff mentioned last week .

Current temp 97 sky smokie
on some other note..the wintry side of this

AccuWeather.com %u200F@breakingweather 7m
14 inches of snow reported on the ground just north of Downtown Bismarck, N.D. Still heavy snow falling.

they are in a blizzard warning...could get just below 2' of snow... 12-18"
617. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
These two cells are the most likely dangerous (big winds, tornado-producers) storms...I think
about to move ashore, especially the 1st one..


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
These two cells are the most likely dangerous (big winds, tornado-producers) storms...I think
about to move ashore, especially the 1st one..




Max the second cell you point out has a nadar signature ...
Haven't seen anyone chatting about it here, but the blizzard in ND is really getting crazy. Bismarck's already got over 14", with snow still coming down at 1-2" per hour. Their all-time 24-hour record, 15.9", looks certain to fall today. On April 14th!
Quoting Thrawst:


What's the cause for all the low clouds always being over that area?


Marine Layer sometimes caused by a coastal eddy. It is a fixture here during June. At least it isn't hot and humid.
Its weird that thunderstorms aren't breaking out yet over Central Florida. There is deep moisture in the region, instability is quite impressive with surface CAPE of 2000 to 3000, steep low level lapse rates and pretty impressive mid level lapse rates as well.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Its weird that thunderstorms aren't breaking out yet over Central Florida. There is deep moisture in the region, instability is quite impressive with surface CAPE of 2000 to 3000, steep low level lapse rates and pretty impressive mid level lapse rates as well.


I was thinking about that too.. should fire up at any moment
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I was thinking about that too.. should fire up at any moment


I'm wondering if there might be some sort of CAP present...

Its weird how stubborn weather patterns can be, when droughts hit it seems like they are hard to break even when the atmosphere is very favorable for thunderstorms.

During increased rain periods it seems the opposite, often thunderstorms will fire even when its not that favorable and not that much is expected. It's a weird aspect about weather that I'd like to understand more.

ouch

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
30S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH. NOT CONFIDENT THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FUTURE GUIDANCE...AS A MENTION IN THE HWO WILL BECOME NEEDED IF THE
TEMP FORECAST HOLDS.
.BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A JET
STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE VERY POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS ON THE ORDER OF 100-110
KNOTS AT 250MB. WE LOOK TO BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THAT JET
STREAK WITH VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE. THE GFS IS
ACTUALLY DEPICTING A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ON THE
ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS. NO DOUBT...POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN
THE CARDS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A LOW CONFIDENCE TORNADO
THREAT IN THE HWO. THE ONE THING THAT KEEPS US FROM INCREASING THE
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING SINCE
THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO...DEW POINTS ARE BEING ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE MID 60S...WHICH
ARE LOWER THAN OBSERVED DEW POINTS WERE DURING OUR LAST SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT ON THE 11TH. OF COURSE...THE LONG RANGE MODELS MIGHT
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...AND NO
DOUBT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS DAY BY DAY
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
It's gonna be another warm and stormy week here in Kings Mills, OH.
628. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm wondering if there might be some sort of CAP present...

Its weird how stubborn weather patterns can be, when droughts hit it seems like they are hard to break even when the atmosphere is very favorable for thunderstorms.

During increased rain periods it seems the opposite, often thunderstorms will fire even when its not that favorable and not that much is expected. It's a weird aspect about weather that I'd like to understand more.



Could be you don't have much of a trigger over central FL other than reaching the convective temp. Forecast convective temps are around 77-80°F. So maybe not long.

The next snowstorm developing in the CO/WY Rockies

some storm clouds popping in South Florida now..

This event is VERY high helicity/shear in northern gulf coast states, but potentially very low instability...

just like winter.
Quoting beell:


Could be you don't have much of a trigger over central FL other than reaching the convective temp. Forecast convective temps are around 77-80°F. So maybe not long.




Temps have been in the 80's for hours in Central Florida...

There must be missing trigger I agree, no lift? I don't know.
634. beell
Earlier convection on the east coast did leave a westward moving boundary.

I concur on not knowing why there are no storms developing in C FL. Perhaps, there is a cap in place.





636. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:



Temps have been in the 80's for hours in Central Florida...

There must be missing trigger I agree, no lift? I don't know.


I don't know either. Just a guess. That particular mechanism is not an instantaneous process.
Skip to the line break if you don't want to read the recap from blog2373page3, 4, and 5
124 yonzabam: 16,000 dead pigs and 1,000 dead ducks in Chinese river
Ducks I could understand, but 16,000 dead pigs? Even if the water was contaminated with a deadly toxin - and there seems to be no evidence of that, as yet - how would the pigs actually end up in the river?
That's an awful lot of pork, and the Chinese love their pork, so what the heck has happened here? Anyone got a suggestion?

136 aspectre: Agricultural, environmental, and health authorities refusing to do their jobs. There was a deadly swine ?flu? virus epidemic that made the pigs contagious; unsellable, not even as meat. So producers just killed them and dumped 'em in the river... or at least the somewhat scrupulous ones did.
Ducks are often raised alongside of pigs over there. (Leading to fears that genetic recombinations of porcine and avian influenzas will create deadly strains that can crossover into humans.)
145 yonzabam: Great hypothesis. The reason so many novel flu viruses emerge from China is that pigs and ducks are reared together. Avian flu infects the ducks, but usually isn't transmissible to humans.
However, the ducks transmit it to pigs, and the virus undergoes genetic changes in their mammalian host, which sometimes results in a flu that can be passed on to people.

163 aspectre: If you are referring to the deadly viral epidemic amongst pigs, twas reported as factual in the Chinese press.
If you are referring to local Chinese agricultural, environmental, and health authorities failing to do their jobs on all fronts, even China's Politburo and its CentralCommittee are trying to expose and address that problem.
165 yonzabam: The viral epidemic. Strange it wasn't mentioned in the BBC story.
208 aspectre: Turns out it was reported as a porcine circovirus rather than as an influenza virus.
Unsurprisingly considering the degree of corruption amongst the local officials, more-than-13,000 dead pigs found floating and still the "Water quality in the Huangpu River has been normal up to now," [according to an] official at the Shanghai Information Office. He also stressed that porcine circovirus cannot be contracted by humans... cough cough

526 yonzabam: H7N9 bird flu update. It appears to be spreading. Two new cases today, the first ones reported from Henan province. First case reported from Beijing, yesterday.
That makes a total of 60 confirmed cases and 13 deaths. Most cases are probably from poultry, although there is some preliminary evidence of person to person transmission.
Researchers announced a few days ago that it's mutating eight times faster than 'normal', and expressed concerns that this could result in a strain that spreads easily between people.


Extracted from an earlier article in The Atlantic magazine:
A new strain of avian flu called H7N9 has infected at least seven humans and killed three in provinces near the Chinese metropolis of Shanghai, with the first death occurring on March 4.
Meanwhile, in the last month, about 16,000 pigs, 1,000 ducks, and a few swans have been pulled dead from Chinese rivers.
An April 2nd World Health Organization (WHO) statement that scientists could find "no evidence of any connection" between the dead pigs and the human victims can no longer be found on its website.

Hello from very blizzardy North Dakota!

I've been a mostly lurker here since 2005. We here in central North Dakota are rarely in the weather spotlight. With this blizzard, the NWS has updated our expected snow totals from 12 to 18+ inches.

I'm in a second floor apartment and would guess we've received about 10 inches so far.

I'm grateful we didn't have freezing rain before the snow started. No power losses that I know of. Monday's going to be a digging out day.

Keep warm,
Maddy



Good afternoon everyone hope all of you are having a great day.
this cell is still trucking along...I wonder if it has/had a waterspout with.



Largo: Maybe some of these will make their way down here.
Link
Quoting Jedkins01:



Temps have been in the 80's for hours in Central Florida...

There must be missing trigger I agree, no lift? I don't know.


maybe an outflow boundary will move through and start something.

Things seem to be starting here and there.
643. beell

RAP 700mb temps-19Z
A band of showers associated with a cold front is approaching towards Oahu.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

VALID 142017Z - 142145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES PERSISTS ACROSS WW 106. THE GREATEST
NEAR TERM SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NCNTRL FL NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE ASCENT
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER NCNTRL FL AS WELL AS WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE SEA BREEZE. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DESTABILIZED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
BACKED TO ELY JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT
LARGER HODOGRAPHS THAN IN WARM SECTOR. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35 TO 45
KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST A COUPLE TORNADOES WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT.

PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LLJ WILL SHIFT EWD
TOWARD NRN FL THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND LIKELY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL STORMS AND A SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 04/14/2013
Quoting PedleyCA:


Marine Layer sometimes caused by a coastal eddy. It is a fixture here during June. At least it isn't hot and humid.


I remember one time was in Pasadena, it was awful and like 95'. So we headed to Santa Monica....was about 60' with the marine layer...had to buy a sweater! haha Funny, 60' is warm to me now!


"Jedkins01

Its weird how stubborn weather patterns can be, when droughts hit it seems like they are hard to break even when the atmosphere is very favorable for thunderstorms.
During increased rain periods it seems the opposite, often thunderstorms will fire even when its not that favorable and not that much is expected. It's a weird aspect about weather that I'd like to understand more."



That's just Murphy's Law ;p Seriously though, back in Palm Springs in the mid-90's...would be SO hot and muggy, you'd see the clouds building...but we NEVER got the thunderstorms or rain! Would always wait until closer to Imperial/San Bernadino country or the Az border, you just prayed and prayed PLEASE let us have it! But no LOL
Getting very heavy rain and some CG lightning and gusty winds right now. The cooler layer north of the warm front is really shallow here as I can easily see the convective clouds racing from south to north not far above the cooler stable air with some low stratus and scud moving north to south.
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I remember one time was in Pasadena, it was awful and like 95'. So we headed to Santa Monica....was about 60' with the marine layer...had to buy a sweater! haha Funny, 60' is warm to me now!


"Jedkins01

Its weird how stubborn weather patterns can be, when droughts hit it seems like they are hard to break even when the atmosphere is very favorable for thunderstorms.
During increased rain periods it seems the opposite, often thunderstorms will fire even when its not that favorable and not that much is expected. It's a weird aspect about weather that I'd like to understand more."



That's just Murphy's Law ;p Seriously though, back in Palm Springs in the mid-90's...would be SO hot and muggy, you'd see the clouds building...but we NEVER got the thunderstorms or rain! Would always wait until closer to Imperial/San Bernadino country or the Az border, you just prayed and prayed PLEASE let us have it! But no LOL



lol yeah I know what you mean, I actually lived in California for a year, lived a few miles inland. The difference is though its normal to be dry there all the time, climatology normal yearly rainfall is roughly 4 to 8 inches in most of those areas of southern California, some spots a tad more, some even less. The normal yearly rainfall in Central Florida is 40 to 60 inches depending on what location. When drought happens there its much scarier because you don't know when its going to end. You also know when it does end, it will probably end with a bang followed by too much rain, that's what happened last year.


Of course, I shouldn't say drought isn't scary in southern California because it is already dry, drier than normal can mean the threat of epic fires, yikes!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe an outflow boundary will move through and start something.

Things seem to be starting here and there.

There is a boundary near Tampa Bay that is trying to get a few showers/storms going.
This image was taken 10 minutes ago or so.


the most recent image shows only one storm has been able to get going though.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW IA INTO NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142028Z - 142200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP S/SW FROM SW
IA INTO NW MO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A
FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CELLS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SW IA IN THE VICINITY OF AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD THIS
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S INTO CNTRL IA AND NRN MO...SFC MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEG F...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK MUCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD IN GENERAL
LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW COULD OVERCOME POOR
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A FEW MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EVENTS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/14/2013
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
this cell is still trucking along...I wonder if it has/had a waterspout with.





It looks like it did.

1933 EASTPOINT FRANKLIN FL 2975 8487 WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE CAUSING MINOR DAMAGE IN EASTPOINT. (TAE)
Just wondering if wet weather causes epic fires in south California. More vegetation grows only to turn to fuel when the normal pattern resumes.
Wow.

To say tornadoes are possible in eastern Arkansas on Thursday with this kind of hodograph is an understatement.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW IA INTO NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142028Z - 142200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP S/SW FROM SW
IA INTO NW MO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A
FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CELLS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SW IA IN THE VICINITY OF AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD THIS
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S INTO CNTRL IA AND NRN MO...SFC MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEG F...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK MUCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD IN GENERAL
LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW COULD OVERCOME POOR
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A FEW MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EVENTS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/14/2013


ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 39549494 39909494 40929477 41749444 42059410 42209353
42089290 41589238 41009224 40199250 39659292 39389354
39239401 39329463 39549494


Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Quoting Civicane49:


it knew it... it was a tornado there near Apalachicola.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM SNOW BISMARCK 46.81N 100.78W
04/14/2013 M16.2 INCH BURLEIGH ND COCORAHS

STILL SNOWING


And there you have it, folks. A new 24-hr. record.
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
>And there you have it, folks. A new 24-hr. record.


They are going to shatter that record if tonight's initial forecast holds up..."3-7 inches" Can anyone imagine getting 24 inches of snow in the middle of April and setting your 24-hour record?
WFUS52 KMLB 142130
TORMLB
FLC069-142215-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0009.130414T2130Z-130414T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
530 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...THE VILLAGES...TAVARES...PAISLEY...
MOUNT DORA...LISBON...LEESBURG...LAKE HARRIS...LAKE GRIFFIN...LADY
LAKE...HOWEY IN THE HILLS...EUSTIS...EMERALDA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT.

* AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HOWEY IN THE HILLS...OR NEAR MASCOTTE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FRUITLAND PARK...LEESBURG AIRPORT...THE VILLAGES...MID FLORIDA
LAKES AND PITTMAN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 2897 8195 2896 8166 2905 8165 2902 8148
2858 8180 2862 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 210DEG 23KT 2866 8187

$$


MOSES




Looks like the storms are firing now.

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Tallahassee, FL (KTLH) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Doppler indicated possible tornado, Lake County, Fl. It's finally raining here!
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE ASCENT
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER NCNTRL FL AS WELL AS WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE SEA BREEZE. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DESTABILIZED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
BACKED TO ELY JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT
LARGER HODOGRAPHS THAN IN WARM SECTOR. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35 TO 45
KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST A COUPLE TORNADOES WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT.

PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LLJ WILL SHIFT EWD
TOWARD NRN FL THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND LIKELY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL STORMS AND A SEVERE THREAT.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX: RE: Post#659


it knew it... it was a tornado there near Apalachicola.


That storm is still there Max..
Tornado not though..
Look at the line of T'sorm in the bottom NEXRAD Image I posted..
(Post# 665)
Still looks quite active..
Quoting pcola57:




a really wet day for you my friend... how did it go (that picnic table?)


red dot?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


a really wet day for you my friend... how did it go (that picnic table?)


red dot?


Picnic Table survived Max.. :)
Apalachicola got hit with a tornado I think..
We got 1.07" here and it's stopped raining..
I believe we are done here..
Tallahassee and Jacksonville look bad now..
Don't know why the CE Fl hasn't got much..
Maybe they will before it's all said and done..
According to the 12Z GFS it looks like most of the rains awaited for the end of the week will fall over and around Martinique-Dominica-Guadeloupe.... and once again the Northern islands won't get much.

This morning, the San Juan NWS said the NE Carib would get a good weather event during the latter part of the coming week..... but unfortunately they have changed their mind this afternoon!

>> Morning discussion :

GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK.
THIS TROUGH PATTERN WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.


>> Latest discussion :

THE GFS BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR IN ON
WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL HOLD.
NEVERTHELESS INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRIER THAN THE FIRST PART...THEN MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT CAPPING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY MID LAYERS TO KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OVERALL WITH ONLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS.
(wow what a change)
Quoting pcola57:


Picnic Table survived Max.. :)
Apalachicola got hit with a tornado I think..
We got 1.07" here and it's stopped raining..
I believe we are done here..
Tallahassee and Jacksonville look bad now..
Don't know why the CE Fl hasn't got much..
Maybe they will before it's all said and done..


___

I see,
I expect over 1" from Mobile, AL through Jacksonville, FL
sorry for the wet stormy day. Maybe good for the trees


Gotta check out that picnic table one day...
:)
NWS Twin Cities ‏@NWSTwinCities 25m
Today is the 6th day in a row MSP has had snow. It's a record for April! The previous record for consecutive days in April was set in 1928!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Quoting pcola57:


Picnic Table survived Max.. :)
Apalachicola got hit with a tornado I think..
We got 1.07" here and it's stopped raining..
I believe we are done here..
Tallahassee and Jacksonville look bad now..
Don't know why the CE Fl hasn't got much..
Maybe they will before it's all said and done..


I see,
I expect over 1" from Mobile, AL trhough Jacksonville...
sorry for the wet stormy day. Maybe good for the trees


Gotta check out that picnic table one day...
:)



I live in Tallahassee by FSU, we have gotten some pretty heavy rain and a couple of stronger thunderstorms. The cool stable air near the surface prevented us from seeing anything too bad but the winds have gusted upwards of 45 mph or so when the stronger cell came through with intense rainfall and some potent lightning but nothing terrible. Pretty much run of the mill thunderstorms for Florida, but still nice and enjoyable for sure :)

now we are getting steady rain with gusty winds, the thunderstorms have cleared through.


Still not clear- Makes me shiver 63.4 here.
I had a feeling the greatest severe threat would be over NE Florida since they had the most heating combined with greater dynamics.

Central Florida is very moist and unstable but is struggling to get cells going. I'm not sure why but probably a lack of lift or maybe some sort of cap buried within overall fairly steep lapse rates.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
555 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC069-142215-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130414T2215Z/
LAKE-
555 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTY...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TAVARES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION WERE LOCATED NEAR
THE VILLAGES AND MASCOTTE...ALSO MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2897 8195 2896 8166 2905 8165 2902 8148
2858 8180 2862 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 210DEG 23KT 2880 81
Quoting Jedkins01:



I live in Tallahassee by FSU, we have gotten some pretty heavy rain and a couple of stronger thunderstorms. The cool stable air near the surface prevented us from seeing anything too bad but the winds have gusted upwards of 45 mph or so when the stronger cell came through with intense rainfall and some potent lightning but nothing terrible. Pretty much run of the mill thunderstorms for Florida, but still nice and enjoyable for sure :)

now we are getting steady rain with gusty winds, the thunderstorms have cleared through.


yes, Jedkins.

I forgot to mention the gusty winds...
Just because the storms cleared, does not mean you are off the hook now, look to your west... Ya know...

stay safe there...big rain, thunderstorms, wind and possible flash flooding coming over to your area.
tornado watch cancelled..I see
Just got my brand new computer!.Ha ha yes!.

It's beautiful here in D.C today.Hard to believe that it's snowing somewhere else in the U.S.Just shows how crazy the jet stream can be in April.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Just got my brand new computer!.Ha ha yes!.

It's beautiful here in D.C today.Hard to believe that it's snowing somewhere else in the U.S.Just shows how crazy the jet stream can be in April.



how you like it all so what kind of laptop did you get all so how you like window 8?
Miami NWS Disco

DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH FL ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING UP ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN TUE-FRI, A BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER, THIS BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS THE WEATHER LOOKS TO
BECOME POTENTIALLY QUITE ACTIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SETS UP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FL,
AND A SLOW MOVING ONE AT THAT. SO A RATHER DRY WORK WEEK AHEAD
FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY STORMY WEEKEND. I KNOW, NOT WELL TIMED!
Live video on I94 of insane mid April blizzard conditions near Fergus Falls MN. Check DougK's stream:
DougK Live mobile chaser video
Quoting Astrometeor:


Can anyone imagine getting 24 inches of snow in the middle of April
Sadly enough, yes. In 2008 we got 36 inches in April
Quoting Tazmanian:



how you like it all so what kind of laptop did you get all so how you like window 8?
I got a hp laptop.I have windows 8 but it's so confusing to work with.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Disco

DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH FL ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING UP ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN TUE-FRI, A BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER, THIS BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS THE WEATHER LOOKS TO
BECOME POTENTIALLY QUITE ACTIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SETS UP A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FL,
AND A SLOW MOVING ONE AT THAT. SO A RATHER DRY WORK WEEK AHEAD
FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY STORMY WEEKEND. I KNOW, NOT WELL TIMED!



Hey it will be May before you know it and that's when the action starts again in South Florida.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes, Jedkins.

I forgot to mention the gusty winds...
Just because the storms cleared, does not mean you are off the hook now, look to your west... Ya know...

stay safe there...big rain, thunderstorms, wind and possible flash flooding coming over to your area.
tornado watch cancelled..I see


There really isn't much else headed my why but light showers, the surface low is crossing the area now so convective rains are done.

It looks like an organized convective line is beginning to organize in the gulf on Tampa long range radar, hopefully it will hold strong and bring needed rain.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...N-CNTRL/NE OK...FAR W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142236Z - 150030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO A MODERATELY WARM AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SVR COVERAGE
BUT A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE LIKELY. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE
KS. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA IS MIXED TO AROUND 800 MB /PER RAP
SOUNDINGS/ AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
RELATIVELY WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-800 MB IS LIMITING
INSTABILITY...WITH MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPE AROUND 500 J PER
KG. THESE INSTABILITY VALUES MAY BE A LITTLE LOW...SINCE 22Z
RAP-BASED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW DEWPOINT VALUES THAT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO LOW. 18Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS NOT DEPICTED WELL IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FARTHER S...SOME TALLER CU HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF WEAK TRIPLE POINT
NEAR MAJOR COUNTY OK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J PER KG.

GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 45 KT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS/HAIL EXISTS. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 04/14/2013
did anyone see the long range GFS? holy sheeze..









TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-095-117-127-142345-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0010.130414T2243Z-130414T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
643 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SCOTTSMOOR...
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER PARK...UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...MAITLAND...GOLDENROD...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...SANFORD...OVIEDO...
LONGWOOD...LAKE MARY...LAKE JESSUP...GENEVA...CHULUOTA...
CASSELBERRY...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT.

* AT 641 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WINTER
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SANFORD AIRPORT...MIDWAY...OSTEEN AND MAYTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 2905 8099 2878 8083 2870 8083 2853 8135
2878 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 245DEG 22KT 2869 8128

$$


MOSES
I love the new further south surfacce low on the new GFS




now:



before:




with good CAPE we could have a few tornadoes in MS/LA/AR
692. beell



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FL SPACE COAST TO THE FL BIG BEND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

VALID 142244Z - 150015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A CLUSTER OF QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL FL AND WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD FROM THE FL
BIG BEND VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED WARM FRONT FROM
DAB TO 15 MI WSW CTY WITH THE EAST SEA BREEZE FRONT APPROXIMATELY 50
MI INLAND. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES AND AT THEIR INTERSECTION...SERVING AS PREFERRED STORM
EMBRYO LOCATIONS. WEAK SUPERCELLS EXHIBITING WEAK LOW LEVEL
ROTATION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL FL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO
POSE AT LEAST ISOLD DMGG WIND POTENTIAL AND A MARGINAL TORNADO
THREAT.

FARTHER W...40 KT EWD MOTION OF A MATURE SQUALL LINE AND WEAK
CYCLONIC SHEAR IN THE FORM OF WEAK MESOVORTICES COULD POSE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THE SQUALL LINE INVOF THE DECAYING WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE IN
AREAS FARTHER N TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER HAS HINDERED SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION WITH ISOLD DMGG WIND POTENTIAL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..SMITH.. 04/14/2013
Looks like I-94 East is closed near Barnesville Mn do to 2 tractor trailers on their sides. One seems to be carrying livestock as I have seen a couple local farmers bring their trailers in to the accident area. Doug K is streaming live from the scene.
Showers moving in to Oahu.

Looks like i've been missing an active day... Got back from my camping trip so i'm ready to track some severe storms XD


Not too bad
Quoting washingtonian115:
I got a hp laptop.I have windows 8 but it's so confusing to work with.



lol take it back


and get a window 7 PC on the HP web site


Link


and you be happer
Plenty of rain coming for the central-eastern U.S. this week. GFS ensemble mean Week 1 total accumulated precipitation anomaly:

Quoting ncstorm:
did anyone see the long range GFS? holy sheeze..











Is that a 'warmeaster' or something somewhat tropical?
Late Season Winter Storm Hits Northern Plains

A late season winter storm will bring strong gusty winds and heavy snow and ice to the Northern Plains through Monday. Snow totals for the region are expected to range between 6 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in central North Dakota
Quoting TheGreatHodag:


Is that a 'warmeaster' or something somewhat tropical?

Looks subtropical to me, but I could be wrong.
washingtonian115

Your new HP laptop might be helped out with a program from an outfit called Quality Freeware. You can get a program so your windows 8 machine can mimic Windows 7 or Vista. Don't know what that might do to the speed of your laptop but may prevent you from breaking in the new machine. Hope this helps. FYI
Here's another look at that storm on the 18z GFS, 10 days out:



This isn't the first run to show something in that time period, but this is definitely the most aggressive it's been with it.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Brevard County in Florida...
this includes the cities of... Titusville Airport... Titusville...
Sharpes... port Saint John... lone cabbage Fish Camp... Cocoa...
southeastern Orange County in Florida...
northeastern Osceola County in Florida...

* until 845 PM EDT.

* At 804 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 10 miles
southwest of lone cabbage Fish Camp... moving northeast at 15 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Canaveral Groves

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a strong building on
the lowest floor... in an interior room such as a bathroom or closet.
Keep away from windows. Get under a workbench or other piece of
sturdy furniture. Use blankets or pillows to cover your body.

Evacuate Mobile homes or vehicles for more substantial shelter.


Lat... Lon 2819 8095 2826 8110 2865 8082 2853 8077
2851 8077 2847 8075 2843 8075 2839 8072
2839 8073 2838 8073 2839 8072 2836 8070
time... Mot... loc 0005z 214deg 14kt 2827 8098
WOW, incredible rainbow on Reed Timmer's live stream!!

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks subtropical to me, but I could be wrong.


Not even that. The thickness (~temperature) gradient across the center of the storm tells you it's not shallow warm-core, and the center of the storm is under the upper-level jetstream, so it's not vertically stacked with a cold pool either.



Live stream of live hogs running loose from an overturned semi-truck in the Minnesota Blizzard.
Link


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 106...

DISCUSSION...ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVE ACROSS NORTH
CNTRL/NE OK ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING ESE ACROSS REGION.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONFIRMS OUN RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWING
APPARENT LEADING EDGE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S/ JUST ABOUT TO INTERCEPT THE BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTH. COUPLED WITH EXPECTED NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY
LLJ AND MDT TO STRONG DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW...SETUP MAY YIELD A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND THROUGH LATE
TNGT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.


...CORFIDI
Based solely on the GFS output...means this is subject to change. It is anyways considering this is still a few days out.

Nice hook echo:

New warning on that storm.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
831 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SHARPES...ROCKLEDGE...PORT SAINT
JOHN...PLAYALINDA BEACH...MERRITT ISLAND...PORT CANAVERAL...
COCOA...CAPE CANAVERAL...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT.

* AT 827 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
ROCKLEDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROCKLEDGE...COCOA...MERRITT ISLAND...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER AND
MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE.

THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS
DEVELOPING TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW AS SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN. TORNADOES ARE OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WHICH ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.

THE TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE WRAPPED IN HEAVY RAIN MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO SEE
. BE SMART AND REACT NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2842 8057 2835 8060 2833 8064 2835 8065
2832 8065 2821 8081 2836 8087 2852 8078
2850 8076 2841 8073 2852 8073 2853 8077
2854 8073 2860 8073 2868 8069 2868 8066
2871 8067 2859 8057 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 221DEG 25KT 2833 8079

$$


KELLY
I was in Winter Park for the duration of the thunderstorms this evening in Central FL. I suspect the worst of the weather missed my location to the north, yet we were directly under red cells based on the radar at least twice. It got a bit windy (20-30 mph) as the first of the storms grazed us to the north with heavy rain and a few semi-close lightning strikes. The height of the storms to follow brought some dangerous lightning and torrential rain, but nothing close to severe where I was. Judging by the drive home from Winter Park to Altamonte Springs, nothing severe happened here either. A few twigs and palm fronds are down, that's pretty much it. Boy did we get a bunch of rain, just what we needed.
That tornado in Brevard is about to cross I-95 into Cocoa, Rockledge & Merrit Island..
Animated helicity in FL.

0-3 km

0-1 km
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
241 PM HST SUN APR 14 2013

HIZ005>011-150345-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-
241 PM HST SUN APR 14 2013

.NOW...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER OAHU TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH. RAINFALL EXTENDS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST SO BRIEFLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...PERHAPS GREATER AT TIMES...ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CAUSE
PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS
TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY WHICH CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.

$$

DEJESUS
Wow, Cocoa, FL is taking a direct hit if there's something on the ground. Let's hope there isn't as that is a fairly large town of over 17,000 people.

Holy cow. Good thing it is about to go over water.



Debris ball on the end?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Holy cow. Good thing it is about to go over water.



Debris ball on the end?

No. Rotation is pretty pitiful and dual pol indicates nothing.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Rotation is pitiful and dual pol indicates nothing.
Rotation looks pretty good to me.


Strongest cuplet is over the possible debris ball to.

Edit: Seems to have weakened now. May cycle quickly though.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Rotation is pretty pitiful and dual pol indicates nothing.


Possible debris now.



Link
Quoting WxTracker15:


Possible debris now.



Link

I love how a supercell can have pitiful rotation, but as soon as I say something it rapidly develops into a tornado.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
852 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150130-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-130415T0130Z/
BREVARD-
852 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 846 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS CROSSING
THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY NEAR COCOA TOWARDS MERRITT ISLAND AND
STATE ROUTE 5 28...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BELLWOOD...CAPE CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK...PORT CANAVERAL...KENNEDY
SPACE CENTER...MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE AND PLAYALINDA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO
. IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 2842 8057 2835 8060 2833 8064 2835 8065
2832 8065 2821 8081 2836 8087 2852 8078
2850 8076 2841 8073 2852 8073 2853 8077
2854 8073 2860 8073 2868 8069 2868 8066
2871 8067 2859 8057 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 221DEG 23KT 2841 8071

$$


KELLY
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I love how a supercell can have pitiful rotation, but as soon as I say something it rapidly develops into a tornado.
I think your data updates may be slow. Had the same frame when I first posted. Maybe update refresh time?
Can sea spray from a waterspout imitate a debris ball signature?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I love how a supercell can have pitiful rotation, but as soon as I say something it rapidly develops into a tornado.


and just as I post that, it weakens.
Quoting WxTracker15:


and just as I post that, it weakens.
Good chance it was a short lived EF 0-1. Good thing it will not have much time to cycle before it goes over land.
The rotation isn't nearly as strong as it was a couple of frames ago, which is good. The new threat is going to be damaging winds in excess of 60mph in these areas. Ignore the green TVS.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
852 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150130-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-130415T0130Z/
BREVARD-
852 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 846 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS CROSSING
THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY NEAR COCOA TOWARDS MERRITT ISLAND AND
STATE ROUTE 5 28...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BELLWOOD...CAPE CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK...PORT CANAVERAL...KENNEDY
SPACE CENTER...MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE AND PLAYALINDA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO
. IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 2842 8057 2835 8060 2833 8064 2835 8065
2832 8065 2821 8081 2836 8087 2852 8078
2850 8076 2841 8073 2852 8073 2853 8077
2854 8073 2860 8073 2868 8069 2868 8066
2871 8067 2859 8057 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 221DEG 23KT 2841 8071

$$


KELLY



Not good...
Quoting Jedkins01:



Not good...
It has really fallen apart in the last few frames. If it will cycle again it will be over the water.
Just as I say ignore that tvs, that line of thunderstorms gets tornado warned.

WFUS52 KMLB 150102
TORMLB
FLC009-150200-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0013.130415T0102Z-130415T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
902 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ROCKLEDGE...PORT CANAVERAL...PATRICK
AIR FORCE BASE...MERRITT ISLAND...LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP...COCOA
BEACH...COCOA...CAPE CANAVERAL...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.

* AT 900 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
VIERA...SUNTREE AND JETTY PARK

THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS
DEVELOPING TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW AS SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN. TORNADOES ARE OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WHICH ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.

THE TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE WRAPPED IN HEAVY RAIN MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO SEE. BE SMART AND REACT NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2836 8060 2818 8058 2818 8063
2820 8065 2818 8065 2816 8086 2838 8088
2843 8075 2841 8073 2844 8073 2848 8065
2847 8064 2841 8065 2843 8061 2849 8061
2852 8055 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 250DEG 12KT 2829 8083

$$


MOSES
736. beell
That particular cell had/has decent velocity and a semi-broad circulation around 5,000'. Not impossible to reach the surface.

Edit: NM, was looking at the new warned right mover NW of Melbourne. Not the cell offshore.
Quoting Levi32:


Not even that. The thickness (~temperature) gradient across the center of the storm tells you it's not shallow warm-core, and the center of the storm is under the upper-level jetstream, so it's not vertically stacked with a cold pool either.




thanks levi, i almost lost my dinner when i heard the words "may be subtropical"
The new tornado warned storm is looking pretty good, it may try for a quick spin-up tornado like the last one.
This is worrying. Large inflow notch formed on the other storm.

Inflow notch is has some very stron winds starting to come into it. You can see them flowing into the storm on radar.

NASA may be in for some trouble.

Beautiful bird wing supercell...rotation is increasing with it.

There is a possible tornado headed for the Cocoa Beach area.
AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
NEAR SPACE COAST STADIUM
...OR NEAR ROCKLEDGE AND VIERA...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

Weird wording...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
NEAR SPACE COAST STADIUM
...OR NEAR ROCKLEDGE AND VIERA...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

Weird wording...
Yeah. They are basicly saying is "We are almost positive it is on the ground or is seconds away from being on the ground". Scary wording used today for sure.

Edit: When I first read it my mind fixed it for me. I reread it and yeah that is weird.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
NEAR SPACE COAST STADIUM
...OR NEAR ROCKLEDGE AND VIERA...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

Weird wording...

It's good the tornado doesn't have self-esteem problems.

A confident tornado is a good tornado.
I'm south of the one headed toward Rockledge. Can see a shelf in front of the near constant lightning. Weather is crazy out there..
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
NEAR SPACE COAST STADIUM
...OR NEAR ROCKLEDGE AND VIERA...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

Weird wording...


Well, good for the tornado that it is finally getting its confidence up. Hope it goes and plays well. Good luck Mr. Tornado!
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
317 PM HST SUN APR 14 2013

HIC003-150415-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0069.130415T0117Z-130415T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HONOLULU HI-
317 PM HST SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 615 PM HST

* AT 306 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN MOVING ON TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF OAHU NEAR PEARL HARBOR. SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH. RADAR AND RAIN GAUGES INDICATE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WAIKELE...KUNIA...WHITMORE VILLAGE...WAIPIO...WAIPAHU...WAIMALU...
WAHIAWA...SCHOFIELD BARRACKS...PEARL CITY...NANAKULI...MILILANI
TOWN AND AIEA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 615 PM HST IF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2137 15818 2161 15799 2146 15788 2131 15775
2124 15773 2127 15812

$$

DEJESUS

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's good the tornado doesn't have self-esteem problems.

A confident tornado is a good tornado.


NO, Cody, why you steal and better word my thoughts?

This is one weird night.
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm south of the one headed toward Rockledge. Can see a shelf in front of the near constant lightning. Weather is crazy out there..
You seem to be close enough where you may see a tornado if it is not rain wrapped.

Edit: Seems to have fallen apart a bit.
Rotation doesn't look as strong in the last couple frames. Conditions clearly aren't favorable for long tracking, sustained tornadoes, just possible brief ones like these two storms may have produced.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CAPE CANAVERAL VICINITY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

VALID 150113Z - 150215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A LINGERING THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL SUPERCELL ROTATION WILL
SEEMINGLY PERSIST BEYOND THE 02Z/15 TORNADO WATCH EXPIRATION. A
LOCAL EXTENSION-IN-TIME FOR ANOTHER HOUR MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
CESSATION OF DMGG WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...RECENT KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CYCLING
SUPERCELLS EXHIBITING LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONIC ROTATION NEAR THE CAPE
CANAVERAL VICINITY. MOIST LOW LEVELS CO-LOCATED WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE FEATURING 40 KT 1 KM AGL FLOW HAS SERVED TO
ENLARGE THE HODOGRAPH /300 0-1 KM M2/S2 SRH/ AND MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MESOCYCLONE ROTATION DURING THE NEAR TERM. ASIDE FROM DMGG
WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL INVOF CAPE CANAVERAL...THE REMAINING NRN HALF
OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO N FL HAS OR WILL BE APPRECIABLY
OVERTURNED...IN ADDITION TO THE LOSS OF DIURNALLY-GENERATED
INSTABILITY. THUS...THE TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS IN THE AREA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WHERE A
LOCAL WW EXTENSION-IN-TIME COULD ADDRESS A LINGERING SEVERE STORM
THREAT BEYOND 02Z.

..SMITH.. 04/15/2013
Getting back into business, some tornado warnings over Cape Canaveral I see..hmmm
Seems like the proximity to the sea tends to kill these storms quickly. Good thing they did not start producing tornadoes more inland.
I really don't get the wording tonight.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130415T0200Z/
BREVARD-
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGIANA...OR NEAR
ROCKLEDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MERRITT ISLAND...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...COCOA BEACH...CAPE
CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES
. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2836 8060 2818 8058 2818 8063
2820 8065 2818 8065 2817 8079 2834 8079
2841 8073 2842 8073 2846 8070 2848 8065
2847 8064 2841 8065 2843 8061 2849 8061
2852 8055 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 264DEG 30KT 2828 8064

$$


MOSES

There are no indications that this storm is even producing a tornado, much less a strong to violent one. Unnecessary alarm IMO.
MA, the storm is the type of super cell that is capable of producing strong tornadoes. The wording is in good use here.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really don't get the wording tonight.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130415T0200Z/
BREVARD-
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGIANA...OR NEAR
ROCKLEDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MERRITT ISLAND...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...COCOA BEACH...CAPE
CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES
. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2836 8060 2818 8058 2818 8063
2820 8065 2818 8065 2817 8079 2834 8079
2841 8073 2842 8073 2846 8070 2848 8065
2847 8064 2841 8065 2843 8061 2849 8061
2852 8055 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 264DEG 30KT 2828 8064

$$


MOSES

There are no indications that this storm is even producing a tornado, much less a strong to violent one. Unnecessary alarm IMO.

Yeah, that's not necessary at all.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, that's not necessary at all.

If I remember correctly other factors contribute. There was a day last year that was not even highlighted for severe weather that had several tornadoes of EF2 and 1 EF3 if I remember. Was off the Great Lakes. Think it was near Detroit.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If I remember correctly other factors contribute. There was a day last year that was not even highlighted for severe weather that had several tornadoes of EF2 and 1 EF3 if I remember. Was off the Great Lakes. Think it was near Detroit.

You're speaking of the Dexter, MI EF3. That tornado was spawned within a small area of confluence. The situation was an exception, not the rule. Parameters in Florida are not favorable for strong tornadoes, much less violent ones.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If I remember correctly other factors contribute. There was a day last year that was not even highlighted for severe weather that had several tornadoes of EF2 and 1 EF3 if I remember. Was off the Great Lakes. Think it was near Detroit.

March 15th, 2012. Dexter, MI(40ish miles away from me) got hit by an EF3 tornado. Columbiaville, MI got an EF2 and Ida Township, MI got an EF0. That day is when I joined WU so I remember it well. There wasn't supposed to be tornadoes that day, but mother nature had different ideas.

I still think that storm won't produce a strong to violent tornado.
Quoting wxchaser97:

March 15th, 2012. Dexter, MI(40ish miles away from me) got hit by an EF3 tornado. Columbiaville, MI got an EF2 and Ida Township, MI got an EF0. That day is when I joined WU so I remember it well. There wasn't supposed to be tornadoes that day, but mother nature had different ideas.

I still think that storm won't produce a strong to violent tornado.
Yeah, fell apart. Was just making a point that anything could happen. Time flies that seemed just like yesterday.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really don't get the wording tonight.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130415T0200Z/
BREVARD-
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGIANA...OR NEAR
ROCKLEDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MERRITT ISLAND...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...COCOA BEACH...CAPE
CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES
. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2836 8060 2818 8058 2818 8063
2820 8065 2818 8065 2817 8079 2834 8079
2841 8073 2842 8073 2846 8070 2848 8065
2847 8064 2841 8065 2843 8061 2849 8061
2852 8055 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 264DEG 30KT 2828 8064

$$


MOSES

There are no indications that this storm is even producing a tornado, much less a strong to violent one. Unnecessary alarm IMO.
They always overreact. TBW is much more conservative ;)
These cells may try to produce something later.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
These cells may try to produce something later.


WUUS52 KMLB 150145
SVRMLB
FLC061-097-150245-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0011.130415T0145Z-130415T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT.

* AT 941 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
YEEHAW JUNCTION...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KENANSVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
FLORIDA TURNPIKE NEAR KENANSVILLE AND BLUE CYPRESS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ALSO DETECTED SOME WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO
MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2764 8076 2764 8102 2780 8105 2785 8090
2785 8087 2782 8087 2782 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 253DEG 23KT 2778 8090

$$


KELLY




North Dakota is getting smoked with this storm.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013 /532 PM MDT SUN APR 14 2013/

...INTERSTATE 94 CLOSED FOR BOTH EASTBOUND AND WESTBOUND LANES
FROM FARGO TO THE MONTANA BORDER...

...INTERSTATE 29 CLOSED FOR BOTH EASTBOUND AND WESTBOUND LANES
FROM FARGO TO GRAND FORKS...

THE NORTH DAKOTA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION...ALONG WITH THE
NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY PATROL...HAVE CLOSED INTERSTATE 94 IN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM FARGO TO THE MONTANA BORDER. INTERSTATE 29 HAS ALSO
BEEN CLOSED FROM FARGO TO GRAND FORKS.

HEAVY SNOW...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES...AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF
SNOW MAKING THE ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE.


I-29 should be Northbound and Southbound not East and West
Hey Guys have not been around much over the past few months but just read some interesting news here in Cayman. We may have an operational 250 mile range Doppler Radar for the 2013 hurricane season only taken 5 years since they started the project lol

March 20th 2013


RADAR completion and training

The Cayman Islands is nearing the completion of the installation of its very own weather radar that started in 2008. The radar has been funded jointly by the European Union (Grant of 4.1 million Euros), and the Cayman Islands Government covering extra funding that has been required. The Cayman Islands Airports Authority has overseen the project.
From March 4-15 2013 the final radar training was carried out by a representative from SELEX Cooperation.
Everyone talking about tornadoes just needs to chill out! And this video just might help.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Based solely on the GFS output...means this is subject to change. It is anyways considering this is still a few days out.


Not liking the fact that you put my area under the significant severe weather area for Thursday. Any ideas on what I should expect here in SW Ohio, or is it too far out to really tell.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Everyone talking about tornadoes just needs to chill out! And this video just might help.



thanks...


Look at the bottom left of this image...
could be Yogi?
Hypothehis...

IF we get to complete the list (that is getting 2 more snowstorms i.e Yogi and Zeus)
then do we go to...um... Alpha? (I guess)

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really don't get the wording tonight.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC009-150200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130415T0200Z/
BREVARD-
923 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGIANA...OR NEAR
ROCKLEDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MERRITT ISLAND...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...COCOA BEACH...CAPE
CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES
. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2836 8060 2818 8058 2818 8063
2820 8065 2818 8065 2817 8079 2834 8079
2841 8073 2842 8073 2846 8070 2848 8065
2847 8064 2841 8065 2843 8061 2849 8061
2852 8055 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 264DEG 30KT 2828 8064

$$


MOSES

There are no indications that this storm is even producing a tornado, much less a strong to violent one. Unnecessary alarm IMO.


While I think they are being a bit too aggressive with the wording, you are being a little too conservative. These cells that have had warnings are very comparable to many other cells that have produced tornadoes. Now as far as a high end tornado, I agree that wording is too strong. I haven't any indications that these cells have been able to produce EF3 to EF5 tornadoes, using wording like strong, violent tornadoes would tend to sound like they are though.

looks good (bad) at 252 hours (10 days from now)


um? what happens here? (264 hours)


long way out I know
Sure has the supercell look to it.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
MA, the storm is the type of super cell that is capable of producing strong tornadoes. The wording is in good use here.



I agree..it was the size.. had that come down to the ground it could have been a strong tornado. The others looked weaker & smaller.

They are showing penny size hail in Sanford.


US92 by Daytona is shut down again..smoke from the brushfires.
Quoting Ameister12:

Not liking the fact that you put my area under the significant severe weather area for Thursday. Any ideas on what I should expect here in SW Ohio, or is it too far out to really tell.

I'll make my graphic more specific tomorrow. The significant severe weather should be farther south across Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Ohio still has a good possibility of regular severe weather...large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
They always overreact. TBW is much more conservative ;)


I've seen TBW go a bit too conservative for comfort though, we had a late night thunderstorm a couple years back in July that was a really violent thunderstorm with an unbelievable amount of lightning and extreme rain and wind. It produced wind damage in more than one spot in Pinellas including a confirmed tornado and wind gusts to 70 mph but it never got a tornado warning or a severe thunderstorm warning. I remember a Bay News 9 meteorologist covering the storm kept repeating how he was surprised there wasn't a warning and how he was waiting for there to be one anytime but none were issued.

Of course, that's a very extreme case, I think a late night shift worker didn't have enough sleep or something, it was weird. The NWS never does that normally, they are always on it.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thanks...


Look at the bottom left of this image...
could be Yogi?


More snow? Heck, might as well postpone spring...
I know that there are different interpretations and opinions about the wording but my opinion is that is was better to do it the way the NWS did the right thing to be in the safe side of things than be sorry later especially in the night hours when is difficult to see what is going on.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll make my graphic more specific tomorrow. The significant severe weather should be farther south across Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Ohio still has a good possibility of regular severe weather...large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes.

Alright, thanks for the info, TA!

NWS in Wilmington, OH is monitoring this system, though they haven't said anything about Thursday, they are saying there is a possibility for large hail on Tuesday.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS TO BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I know that there are different interpretations and opinions about the wording but my opinion is that is was better to do it the way the NWS did with the wording to be in the safe side of things than be sorry later especially in the night hours when is difficult to see what is going on.



I agree, the NWS in Melbourne is probably aware of that its entirely possible for a tornado to be stronger than what it might appear to be on radar, of course, it can also be the other way around, weaker than appearing on radar, but better safe than sorry.
tornado alerts cancelled
this is another major snowstorm developing by the Rockies, look at the snow forecast

254 PM MDT SUN APR 14 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY MORNING
WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.


* WINDS/VISIBILITIES...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
Almost 1 1/2 inches if rain in the rain gauge just north of Daytona Beach today. That's the biggest one day total we have had around here in quite a while
The tornadoes over Cocoa are passing within 1 mile of half my entire family. The one earlier this evening with a defined hook was within several hundred feet of my Aunt's house.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hypothehis...

IF we get to complete the list (that is getting 2 more snowstorms i.e Yogi and Zeus)
then do we go to...um... Alpha? (I guess)




i think they will ues the next winter names if they run out
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The tornadoes over Cocoa are passing within 1 mile of half my entire family. The one earlier this evening with a defined hook was within several hundred feet of my Aunt's house.


Has there been any damage? :(
Imelda stands with 85 mph winds... should begin to smoke down from now on
Look what's back...negative PDO:

Quoting Jedkins01:


While I think they are being a bit too aggressive with the wording, you are being a little too conservative. These cells that have had warnings are very comparable to many other cells that have produced tornadoes. Now as far as a high end tornado, I agree that wording is too strong. I haven't any indications that these cells have been able to produce EF3 to EF5 tornadoes, using wording like strong, violent tornadoes would tend to sound like they are though.



All this debating back and forth about the wording is splitting hairs, IMO.

In a fast developing situation that is happening at night, in Brevard County, FL (population 550,000, not including tourists and part-time residents) and in the most densely populated part of Brevard County presents all sorts of challengers for forecasters and emergency management officials.

This complex of thunderstorms has had continuous lightning, very heavy rains, strong straight-line winds and small hail, in places. Combine all of that together with all of the other factors mentioned above and you can see why some forecasters would rather overdo the warnings than play them down. Putting out the alarmist-sounding wording will assure that media outlets which are tracking the weather will take notice. And they in turn will report the wording to anyone watching television or listening to radio, or reading local online info that is not necessarily weather-related.

The fact is, most of those who live in Florida are not likely to be as tuned-in to the tornado threat possibility in association with heavy thunderstorms as would those in the Plains states or the Upper Midwest, or even areas of the Deep South. What this means is that it takes more to get their attention as they tend to be rather blasé about weather, except for hurricanes perhaps.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look what's back...negative PDO:



And the MDR is warming back after cooling in the past week.
18z has a TS in the gulf

just little spinners, but we sure need the rain
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The tornadoes over Cocoa are passing within 1 mile of half my entire family. The one earlier this evening with a defined hook was within several hundred feet of my Aunt's house.

me too...just power out here
A subtropical storm off the SE coast of the USA 10 days from now??? There is a high chance that it won't verify, but thats what the 18z GFS run suggests. Seeing model runs like this sure remind you that hurricane season is getting very close. (47 days, 0 hours, 53 minutes)

 
Anyway there have been tornadic supercells in Florida all evening.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


All this debating back and forth about the wording is splitting hairs, IMO.

In a fast developing situation that is happening at night, in Brevard County, FL (population 550,000, not including tourists and part-time residents) and in the most densely populated part of Brevard County presents all sorts of challengers for forecasters and emergency management officials.

This complex of thunderstorms has had continuous lightning, very heavy rains, strong straight-line winds and small hail, in places. Combine all of that together with all of the other factors mentioned above and you can see why some forecasters would rather overdo the warnings than play them down. Putting out the alarmist-sounding wording will assure that media outlets which are tracking the weather will take notice. And they in turn will report the wording to anyone watching television or listening to radio, or reading local online info that is not necessarily weather-related.

The fact is, most of those who live in Florida are not likely to be as tuned-in to the tornado threat possibility in association with heavy thunderstorms as would those in the Plains states or the Upper Midwest, or even areas of the Deep South. What this means is that it takes more to get their attention as they tend to be rather blasé about weather, except for hurricanes perhaps.



I agree good point. I know people who live around here who say, well we don't really get tornadoes in Florida, they get those in plains, we get hurricanes.

I'm talking recently too, even though clear and well visible damage paths have been made by tornadoes in this area in recent years, and even though this county has a history of numerous tornadoes. People think just cause they haven't seen a tornado than they must be really rare.

However, most regular people who live in Oklahoma will say the same, that they haven't see one, but yet people there don't use the same logic thinking they are rare because popular thought makes it well known of the tornado risk in the area. People reason far more based on popular thought that is spread by pop culture themes and word of mouth rather than research or other means of gained knowledge...

What my point is though is just confirming what you said. People just aren't as aware of them here regardless of how often they occur or how often they don't.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Has there been any damage? :(


A friend of mine in Palm Bay, Florida (Brevard County) had a tornado go through her neighborhood. She heard the train sound, had the master window blown out and her patio furniture is destroyed, along with various missing items outside. I think the news stations did an excellent job covering the storm. They called it for Palm Bay. Luckily my friend and her family are safe. Still lots of thunder out there.
Picture of the Year 2012: The Seventh Annual Wikimedia Commons POTY Contest

Requires some clicking to see the full pics. Click on the slide show link, next a link to an individual pic, then the full resolution link.

first place

second place
Quoting PattiinFL:


A friend of mine in Palm Bay, Florida (Brevard County) had a tornado go through her neighborhood. She heard the train sound, had the master window blown out and her patio furniture is destroyed, along with various missing items outside. I think the news stations did an excellent job covering the storm. They called it for Palm Bay. Luckily my friend and her family are safe. Still lots of thunder out there.

One window and lawn furniture? typical florida weather.
800. beell
Quoting geepy86:

One window and lawn furniture? typical florida weather.










Bismarck, ND still under winter alerts

TORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...AND AROUND BOWMAN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
FROM WATFORD CITY...THROUGH HAZEN...MANDAN...AND BISMARCK...TO
FORT YATES...LINTON...AND ASHLEY...TO ELLENDALE...WHERE TOTALS
WILL BE A CRIPPLING 15 TO 19 INCHES.
Quoting Jedkins01:



I agree good point. I know people who live around here who say, well we don't really get tornadoes in Florida, they get those in plains, we get hurricanes.

I'm talking recently too, even though clear and well visible damage paths have been made by tornadoes in this area in recent years, and even though this county has a history of numerous tornadoes. People think just cause they haven't seen a tornado than they must be really rare.

However, most regular people who live in Oklahoma will say the same, that they haven't see one, but yet people there don't use the same logic thinking they are rare because popular thought makes it well known of the tornado risk in the area. People reason far more based on popular thought that is spread by pop culture themes and word of mouth rather than research or other means of gained knowledge...

What my point is though is just confirming what you said. People just aren't as aware of them here regardless of how often they occur or how often they don't.


Absolutely correct, Jedkins.

I can picture some residents of Brevard County blithely playing video games, earlier this evening and while the thunder was crashing all around their house and the wind was howling outside, spraying rain against the windows...

"Tornado? What tornado? This is just a thunderstorm. We get those all the time..."

While it may be true that some people in Oklahoma may consider the tornado risk from the perspective of their own lack of personal experience, just as here in Florida, they surely are more tuned in to the overall risk. I have a good friend in Wichita, Kansas who has run to the basement on more than a few occasions when there was a tornado warning for that county. I find it very hard to picture most people in Florida running into a closet or bathtub when a tornado warning is issued for their county. It is simply a different mindset.

Someone earlier said that the tornado parameters are not very impressive in Florida, and was implying that this alone was a good reason for not ramping up the threat wording at the local NWS office. That is a generalization. Normally, Florida tornadoes are not that impressive compared with those in other parts of the country but that is not always the case. In the last fifteen years, at least 71 persons have been killed by tornadoes in Florida and most of those were EF-2s and EF-3s. And as I have pointed out before on this blog, there have been at least two EF-4 twisters confirmed in Florida during the past 50 years or so.

Bearing in mind that much of the state is still made up of large wilderness tracts that are not common in many other areas of the Eastern US, it is just possible that more severe funnels have touched down in various areas of the state but went undetected. Even so, in general terms, Florida is densely populated but the population patterns are unusually concentrated in specific areas, not spread around the state evenly. This means that when a tornado threat exists in these areas, the risk factor is elevated, in spite of widespread public ignorance of this fact.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Absolutely correct, Jedkins.

I can picture some residents of Brevard County blithely playing video games, earlier this evening and while the thunder was crashing all around their house and the wind was howling outside, spraying rain against the windows...

"Tornado? What tornado? This is just a thunderstorm. We get those all the time..."

While it may be true that some people in Oklahoma may consider the tornado risk from the perspective of their own lack of personal experience, just as here in Florida, they surely are more tuned in to the overall risk. I have a good friend in Wichita, Kansas who has run to the basement on more than a few occasions when there was a tornado warning for that county. I find it very hard to picture most people in Florida running into a closet or bathtub when a tornado warning is issued for their county. It is simply a different mindset.

Someone earlier said that the tornado parameters are not very impressive in Florida, and was implying that this alone was a good reason for not ramping up the threat wording at the local NWS office. That is a generalization. Normally, Florida tornadoes are not that impressive compared with those in other parts of the country but that is not always the case. In the last fifteen years, at least 71 persons have been killed by tornadoes in Florida and most of those were EF-2s and EF-3s. And as I have pointed out before on this blog, there have been at least two EF-4 twisters confirmed in Florida during the past 50 years or so.

Bearing in mind that much of the state is still made up of large wilderness tracts that are not common in many other areas of the Eastern US, it is just possible that more severe funnels have touched down in various areas of the state but went undetected. Even so, in general terms, Florida is densely populated but the population patterns are unusually concentrated in specific areas, not spread around the state evenly. This means that when a tornado threat exists in these areas, the risk factor is elevated, in spite of widespread public ignorance of this fact.



Good point, I remember last year with tropical storm Debby there was a tornado warning with a rotating cell that moved right over us and I saw people running around outside. I told them there was a tornado warning and they didn't think that happened in tropical storms.

If someone hears of a tornado warning in Oklahoma they are running for cover. Some of it also is attitude, here in Florida people sometimes are a little too laid back about everything as much as relaxation is good, hence the bad driving too ;) lol

People in the plains are used to a bit of a harsher way of life so there may be overall a healthier respect for danger in such regions as apposed to here. The Tampa Bay area seems full of people who say they wouldn't leave regardless of how powerful of a hurricane arrived. Now, I doubt that to some extent, personally I think many would start to panic and want to leave if they saw a hurricane like Katrina on satellite barreling toward Tampa Bay. I feel that once people feel the fear it will be too late do too our natural tendency to procrastinate unless you already had a plan in the first place.


Also regarding tornadoes and population. Very true, that is especially true for South Florida, if you look at tornado reports in south Florida, there are large clusters of them near the developed areas of Miami through west palm and then Punta Gorda through Naples on the other coast, with oddly very few over the rest of South Florida. Well, maybe its not so odd given people just don't live across the rest of the millions of acres of mainland.

There are even some other important things to consider regarding tornado reports in Florida, population in Florida has only been high for the last 20 to 30 years. Once you head before the 70's and 80's, Florida is no mans land practically. The major areas now were pretty small towns overall even 50 years ago.

Also most tornadoes in Florida unlike their Midwest counterparts are almost always rain wrapped in heavy precip, its rare to NOT have an HP supercell here. Also, most areas are dominated by thick woods that give poor distance visibility.

I'm not saying that changes the threat of tornadoes here drastically, but what you and I have mentioned does matter and should be taken into account. I think the largely uninhabited areas combined with the nature of tornadoes being rain wrapped here so often are important factors.
Oahu has received higher amount of rainfall today than compared to yesterday. The highest amount over the past 24 hours was 1.44 inches of rain in Schofield South as of 5:45 pm HST. Drier weather is expected for the Hawaiian Islands in the next couple of days as the cold front weakens.
Jedkins01

Living in both Iowa and Eastern Texas, I'd say that visibility has to do a lot with it. Even talking to fellow Texans about tornadoes, they will mention some experience they had in a more western part of the state with a longer view or less hills. The part of Iowa I lived in was very flat and mostly fields. You could see storms for miles away. Even if a storm didn't impact you, a supercell was visible for miles. Where I live in Texas now, if there was an isolated supercell tornado, I wouldn't know about it until my phone alerted me of the tornado warning, or I heard about it later. Just so many trees blocking the horizon.
The eye has become obscured on satellite imagery, but it is still evident on microwave imagery.



Widespread showers are still affecting the island of Oahu but is forecast to diminish overnight.

Gnite everyone...
great blogging weekend we had...

have a great upcoming work week..!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Gnite everyone...
great blogging week we had...

have a great upcoming work week..!


Night
Looks like the NAO will become positive but eventually go back to negative phase.

Quoting Tazmanian:
18z has a TS in the gulf



GFS LOL
ECMWF has nothing. I look at the ECMWF before the GFS. We all know the ECMWF does better.
I extracted this information from my weather station after a cold front passed through Sunday Evening (EDT): I'm pretty amazed that the dew point can change almost instantaneously when the gust front hits,

Dew Point Depression at Time of Gust Front

20:53:39 - 71.6°F (t)

20:53:48 - 68.9°F (-1.5°F, ∆t = 9s)

20:54:21 - 67.6°F (-3.0°F, ∆t = 42s)





DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NWRN TX INTO CNTRL IL...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY...

...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE SYNOPTIC POSITIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE AT 18/00Z FROM
SERN NEB ACROSS NWRN KS INTO SERN CO. LATEST THINKING IS THE NAM
MAY BE MORE ACCURATE DEPICTING AN EARLY FRONTAL SURGE THAT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY1-2 TIME FRAME BEFORE
SLOWLY RETREATING INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO THE GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE BODY OF OK
WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE...WHILE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD 50KT+ LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS OK/KS.
SCATTERED ELEVATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS KS INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NWRN MO. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN KS/NWRN OK WHICH WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG HEATING WILL SHARPEN A DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...SSWWD INTO WEST TX. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FROM OK NEWD INTO MO. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SRN MOST STALLED BOUNDARY WILL POSE THE
GREATEST RISK OF MAINTAINING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WILL
FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS A SECONDARY STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL ENCOURAGE
A FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
PROPAGATE SEWD. BY EARLY THURSDAY AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED FROM NRN IL...SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NWRN TX.

..DARROW.. 04/15/2013
Here in the Bismarck, ND area it's gonna take us a few days to dig out. Here's an update from NWS:

...ALL KINDS OF SNOWFALL RECORDS SMASHED AT BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA ON APRIL 14 2013...

AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BISMARCK...RECORDS GO BACK TO 1875.

SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR APRIL 14 2013 WAS 17.3 INCHES. THE STORM TOTAL SO FAR IS 17.4 INCHES.

A TENTH OF AN INCH FELL ON APRIL 13. THE 17.3 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL IN BISMARCK SUNDAY

BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE...APRIL 14...OF 5.0 INCHES FROM 1986.

THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR ANY DAY IN APRIL IS BROKEN. IT WAS 15.2 INCHES ON APRIL 5 1997.

THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF APRIL WAS 18.7 INCHES IN 1984.

IT IS NOW...21.2 INCHES SO FAR THIS APRIL...2013.

THE RECORD FOR THE MOST SNOW ON ANY DAY OF THE YEAR IN BISMARCK WAS 15.5 INCHES ON MARCH 3...1966.

IT IS NOW...17.3 INCHES.

'til later,
Maddy
Darkening Skies, Ancona, Italy...from facebook...

Good Morning folks!.........................
7-day for Tampa Bay area.....................
Good morning. The SPC has issued a moderate risk for Wednesday, that is very rare for a Day 3 outlook, generally used only when there is potential for a severe weather outbreak on the day in question. Anywhere from Norman and Oklahoma City all the way up to Joplin are under the gun for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging wind.

Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. Had a great weekend for gardening, though the rain Saturday night, while not much, meant not being able to paint the deck. A warm 64 degrees with a high in the mid-eighties later on.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: sausage cheese and pancake sandwiches, poached eggs and bacon, yogurt and fresh orange juice. Enjoy!
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

The diurnal heating will form afternoon showers in the interior of PR in the next couple of days. We will be watching what unfolds by the end of the week with a trough that may bring deep moisture. Fingers crossed on that.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST MON APR 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN TUE AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GENERATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY AND GENERATE A MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GET CLOSER TO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS MORE ORGANIZED AND WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL TO INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 15/16Z BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PR THROUGH ABOUT 15/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E TO ESE AT
10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO FL050.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SEAS
WITH WAVES FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS SWELL
EVENT WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AT 4 FEET AND 16 SECONDS AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 74 / 10 20 20 40
STT 86 76 86 76 / 10 30 30 40
The SPC has also outlined a severe weather threat area further east for Thursday:



This day will likely feature a long squall line capable of producing potentially widespread damaging wind.
Good morning everyone!

Good evening Aussie!

I need two hours without rain this morning... I have a protest rally scheduled at Senator Negrons office this morning... may the dryness be with me.. for awhile.. :)
Wow! A moderate risk 3 days out! Could we see our first high risk day of the year on Wednesday?
mephis:

THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -4C AND -6C...AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS A POWERFUL CYCLONICALLY
CURVED 100 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE
STRONG APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH...HELPING
TO MAINTAIN SOME BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS OVERSPREADS
THE FORECAST AREA. A SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD
EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE
STORMS JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE.
AL:

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE SQUALL
LINE WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO WEST ALABAMA BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM
FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY.
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR AN EVENT THAT IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY.
THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A QLCS WITH EMBEDDED
TORNADOES IN THE LINE. WITH THE LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED...BUT DEEP FORCING ALONG SQUALL LINE WILL OFFSET LACK
OF INSTABILITY
. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
and:

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JUNE DUE TO WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY CONVECTIVE AIR MASS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT POSITIVE BUOYANCY IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUNDING...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD BE SMALL...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
OF COURSE...THIS ASSUMES THAT THE
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HEATING. THE
SET-UP FOR WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE MAY
BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER...AND THIS MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.


shreveport:
STG STORM SYSTEM WILL GET RAMPED UP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER IN DAY WED. ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH
AN OVERALL SLOWER TREND WITH ONSET OF STORMS THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAVY
RAIN...STG LOW LVL SHEAR...AND STEEP INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR ALL FORMS OF SVR WX LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTN ACROSS AREA.

jackson:

...A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
CWA. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE
AT THIS POINT.

and ga

MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN STORE FOR WEEKS END WITH CONTINUED
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WRT TIMING FOR THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE FRONT MOVING INTO NW GEORGIA FRIDAY
AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL FOR THIS SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
IMPRESSIVE AS 80KT 850 JET DECREASES TO A STILL SUBSTANTIAL 60 TO
65 KTS FOR THE NW ZONES. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT
WILL NOT HIT TOO HARD SINCE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
SPC has raised a “moderate risk” of severe weather Wednesday for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, where a significant tornado outbreak is likely with many severe weather parameters falling into place.


It's a shame there is no instability in the SE usa....

the MLJ and LLJ will be so strong.

Looks like mainly a squall line with a possible QLCS spinup.
Time to start a new week. Everyone have a great Monday. Aussie, have a great Tuesday.
There's good potential for strong to violent tornadoes in the Moderate risk area on Wednesday. The same can be said for Thursday, though if we see one, it will probably just that...one from a discrete supercell. The main threat Thursday will be widespread damaging winds along a squall line.
On this date two years ago, residents across Mississippi and Alabama were preparing for one of the largest tornado outbreaks ever to hit their state, part of a 3-day tornado onslaught from Oklahoma to North Carolina.

The strongest on yesterday's date, April 14, was an EF3 near Tushka, Oklahoma. It was a large wedge tornado and remained on the ground for 17 miles. It killed 2 and destroyed homes/shifted them off their foundations.

Many strong tornadoes touched down on this date, April 15, 2011. An EF3 hit the city of Clinton, Mississippi, another hit near Scooba, another near Leakesville (4 deaths); an EF3 moved almost directly through the city of Tuscaloosa, AL, another hit Myrtlewood (1 death), and yet another hit Pine Level (3 deaths). In total, there were 146 reports of tornadoes. This day was only a moderate risk.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
On this date two years ago, residents across Mississippi and Alabama were preparing for one of the largest tornado outbreaks ever to hit their state, part of a 3-day tornado onslaught from Oklahoma to North Carolina.

The strongest on yesterday's date, April 14, was an EF3 near Tushka, Oklahoma. It was a large wedge tornado and remained on the ground for 17 miles. It killed 2 and destroyed homes/shifted them off their foundations.

Many strong tornadoes touched down on this date, April 15, 2011. An EF3 hit the city of Clinton, Mississippi, another hit near Scooba, another near Leakesville (4 deaths); an EF3 moved almost directly through the city of Tuscaloosa, AL, another hit Myrtlewood (1 death), and yet another hit Pine Level (3 deaths). In total, there were 146 reports of tornadoes. This day was only a moderate risk.


Yeah i remember that...
We had a camping trip in north GA with a couple hundred kids but everybody got sent home because of baseball sized hail and winds that messed all all the tents.
Some of the heaviest rain I have ever seen yesterday. I picked up 2.60" of rain and also had hail accumulate in my yard over in Wekiva Springs with frequent lightning for many hours yesterday evening.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
On this date two years ago, residents across Mississippi and Alabama were preparing for one of the largest tornado outbreaks ever to hit their state, part of a 3-day tornado onslaught from Oklahoma to North Carolina.

The strongest on yesterday's date, April 14, was an EF3 near Tushka, Oklahoma. It was a large wedge tornado and remained on the ground for 17 miles. It killed 2 and destroyed homes/shifted them off their foundations.

Many strong tornadoes touched down on this date, April 15, 2011. An EF3 hit the city of Clinton, Mississippi, another hit near Scooba, another near Leakesville (4 deaths); an EF3 moved almost directly through the city of Tuscaloosa, another hit Myrtlewood (1 death), and yet another hit Pine Level (3 deaths). In total, there were 146 reports of tornadoes. This day was only a moderate risk.

This day last year was also a moderate risk following the big outbreak on the 14th.



It ended up as a bust, however.

hopefully I'll get a shower out of this later today.....
this system thurs will be OUR weather on the weekend again..
next Friday.....
Quoting Jedkins01:



Good point, I remember last year with tropical storm Debby there was a tornado warning with a rotating cell that moved right over us and I saw people running around outside. I told them there was a tornado warning and they didn't think that happened in tropical storms.

If someone hears of a tornado warning in Oklahoma they are running for cover. Some of it also is attitude, here in Florida people sometimes are a little too laid back about everything as much as relaxation is good, hence the bad driving too ;) lol

People in the plains are used to a bit of a harsher way of life so there may be overall a healthier respect for danger in such regions as apposed to here. The Tampa Bay area seems full of people who say they wouldn't leave regardless of how powerful of a hurricane arrived. Now, I doubt that to some extent, personally I think many would start to panic and want to leave if they saw a hurricane like Katrina on satellite barreling toward Tampa Bay. I feel that once people feel the fear it will be too late do too our natural tendency to procrastinate unless you already had a plan in the first place.


Also regarding tornadoes and population. Very true, that is especially true for South Florida, if you look at tornado reports in south Florida, there are large clusters of them near the developed areas of Miami through west palm and then Punta Gorda through Naples on the other coast, with oddly very few over the rest of South Florida. Well, maybe its not so odd given people just don't live across the rest of the millions of acres of mainland.

There are even some other important things to consider regarding tornado reports in Florida, population in Florida has only been high for the last 20 to 30 years. Once you head before the 70's and 80's, Florida is no mans land practically. The major areas now were pretty small towns overall even 50 years ago.

Also most tornadoes in Florida unlike their Midwest counterparts are almost always rain wrapped in heavy precip, its rare to NOT have an HP supercell here. Also, most areas are dominated by thick woods that give poor distance visibility.

I'm not saying that changes the threat of tornadoes here drastically, but what you and I have mentioned does matter and should be taken into account. I think the largely uninhabited areas combined with the nature of tornadoes being rain wrapped here so often are important factors.
Floridians are extremely complacent when it comes to weather, especially Tampans with hurricanes..

We have had large hurricanes barreling straight towards us that were forecast to hit and only a handful of the people in evac zones decided to go.
846. MahFL
Very muggy in NE FL, 84 % humidity.
I think the drought is about over in many places across E C FL. Melbourne picked up 3.79", Sanford 2.29", Daytona Beach 1.03", Orlando Executive Airport 1.40", Orlando International .79.
whew next saturday...
849. MahFL
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Floridians are extremely complacent when it comes to weather, especially Tampans with hurricanes..

We have had large hurricanes barreling straight towards us that were forecast to hit and only a handful of the people in evac zones decided to go.


Some might say Floridians are also stupid.....
850. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
whew next saturday...


Looks like the dry season is finishing early this year..


Good Morning Folks
E C FL looks to be stormy again this afternoon.

532 AM EDT MON APR 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. A STORM OR
TWO MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION AND SATURATED GROUND FROM SUNDAY'S
STORMS...NUISANCE FLOODING WITH STANDING WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
North-Central Storm Winds Down, New Storm Hits West

Winter Storm Warnings continue for parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley as snow and strong winds wane through the morning. Meanwhile, another late season winter storm brings snow to the Central Great Basin and Central Rockies.
actually folks around tampa bay dont get that severe type of storms very often unless there's a hurricane land falling nearby..not like the midwest with those horrible huge tornado's etc...we around here, some say have been lucky so far..well we'll see THIS hurricane season what happens..around here we WISH for those flooding rains..we can use rain here badly...if you notice last night..all those tornado watches for central florida?..look back..my county wasnt even in it..the Tampa shields were up.
Good rain for all of fl this week!!:)
S FL too!!!:)

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
E C FL looks to be stormy again this afternoon.

532 AM EDT MON APR 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. A STORM OR
TWO MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION AND SATURATED GROUND FROM SUNDAY'S
STORMS...NUISANCE FLOODING WITH STANDING WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Good rain for all of fl this week!!:)
I dunno, im starting to take these rainfall models with a grain of salt..this past weekend all the models had rain for my area..IF i got ONE drop last night that was alot..we'll see..this coming weekend is looking good..we'll see what happens
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Good rain for all of fl this week!!:)


That will be a drought buster if it pans out.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TODAY...WITH HIGHEST STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
hmmm whats in the gulf at 192 hours?.............
As of 5 am EDT, Dr. Forbes has issued a TOR:CON of 5/10 for Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri.
I have been noticing the last couple of days that the GFS has been showing a broad area of low pressure in the western Carribean and East Pacific at the end of the run.
Nam for thurs...............
Quoting LargoFl:
I dunno, im starting to take these rainfall models with a grain of salt..this past weekend all the models had rain for my area..IF i got ONE drop last night that was alot..we'll see..this coming weekend is looking good..we'll see what happens


LOL. Yeah just up I-4 coming into Orlando the weather was insane as the East and West coast seabreezes collided and produced some tremendous thunderstorms. It was raining so hard at one point yesterday that you couldn't see your hand in front of your face,
Quoting LargoFl:
hmmm whats in the gulf at 192 hours?.............

Some storms kicked up by a vort max at the base of a mid-latitude trough.

Quoting 1900hurricane:

Some storms kicked up by a vort max at the base of a mid-latitude trough.

ok ty
869. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
hmmm whats in the gulf at 192 hours?.............


Probably our first invest of the season ;)..... GFS 18z was showing a storm for the Carolinas about 2 days later and it appeared tropical in nature ... but the euro showing only a depression at best ... but a big fish in East atlantic ..
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


LOL. Yeah just up I-4 coming into Orlando the weather was insane as the East and West coast seabreezes collided and produced some tremendous thunderstorms. It was raining so hard at one point yesterday that you couldn't see your hand in front of your face,
yeah thats what the nws keeps saying..best rain chances inland..well i guess inland needs the rains also..good luck with it.
871. SLU
Quoting LargoFl:
ok ty

Sorry to play fun-wrecker yet again. :P
Good Morning..Moderate risk for Wednesday..anyone from the blog going chasing?
875. VR46L
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Sorry to play fun-wrecker yet again. :P


Spoil sport :p... So that really is not tropical

Quoting VR46L:


Spoil sport :p... So that really is not tropical



according to levi yesterday..no..but its still far out and we all know models can and will change..
Quoting VR46L:


Spoil sport :p... So that really is not tropical

That is probably subtropical;)
Well..I also noticed that both the GFS and Euro have been showing a low pressure trying to develop in the atlantic..

00z Euro




00z GFS
I just saw that the SPC issued a moderate risk for Wednesday already. I think there is a decent chance it will end up as a high risk day. Tends to happen when they issue moderates this far out in advance. Anyone else have a take on Wednesday?
The April ECMWF MSLP update is out and show higher pressures in the Atlantic than in the March update.

March Operational July,August,September update:



March Ensemble mean update:



April Operational August,September,October update:



April Ensemble mean for August,September,October update

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As of 5 am EDT, Dr. Forbes has issued a TOR:CON of 5/10 for Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri.


Likely to rise, based solely on the SPC.
The SPC has added a 30% hail risk and 5% tornado risk over today's slight risk area.



Quoting ncstorm:


according to levi yesterday..no..but its still far out and we all know models can and will change..


the genesis of the low is not tropical, but that of baroclinic processes. Otherwise the model wouldn't be generating a low pressure system. Keep in mind, just because forming in a tropical region is not an automatic sign to put the tropical cyclone flag up.

Florida historically is impacted by quite a few gulf including southern gulf generated low pressure systems that are of extra-tropical origin. This output by them model may seems suspicious due to the lack of gulf lows so far this spring. However, remember that much of the peninsula is in a drought, some of which can be attributed to no real gulf lows this spring.

During El Nino years, gulf lows are generated frequently in the spring, and often are quite potent, none of which have any tropical origin.
Orlando
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The SPC has added a 30% hail risk and 5% tornado risk over today's slight risk area.





I personally like this setup today. Strong daytime heating associated with a weak boundary - weak forcing - strong EHI's - strongly favoring two to three severe supercells all capable of producing a tornado. Reed Timmer will have a prime chance to create an episode for his show Tornado Chasers today, and if not today, several chances in the upcoming days.
Despite myself only recording just over an 1" for the last event, all our area rivers were very near bankfull and the larger streams were in minor flood stage. This next event (3"-4")could pose some problems with widespread moderate floods likely along many area rivers, especially when most are still currently in minor flood stage as of now.

Quoting ncstorm:
Well..I also noticed that both the GFS and Euro have been showing a low pressure trying to develop in the atlantic..

00z Euro




00z GFS

Also non-tropical. My first flag was that low's huge vorticity field. Tropical lows are much tighter and more compact. I also traced the low's origins using the 500 mb chart overlaid with the surface analysis, which distinctly shows that that low is merely the surface reflection of a mid-latitude cutoff.





And as you showed with your GFS forecast, the feature is a pretty common one among the model forecasts, so we also have the opportunity to look at it using the GFS phase diagrams.



Clearly, not tropical or even subtropical.
Since it's Monday, and Tax Day...why not?

"The Economist and other journalism icons are beginning to reassess their position on global warming."

Link
Good morning/afternoon/evening to all!

Reading the blog yesterday, someone asked the question about flooding in North Dakota/Manitoba/Saskatchewan. I apologize for the length of the article but there's some interesting info in it:

Lindy



Flood Risks Rising in Canada Grain Belt as Snow, Cold Delay Thaw

By Katia Dmitrieva & Luzi Ann Javier - Apr 12, 2013 2:25 AM GMT-0300.

The risk of crop-damaging floods is increasing in Canada, the world’s second-largest wheat exporter, as late-season snow and freezing weather delay spring planting across the Prairie Provinces and into the northern U.S.

Most of southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, which together produced 61 percent of Canada’s wheat last year, got at least 15 percent more precipitation than normal in the past six months, including twice as much in an area from Saskatoon to below the North Dakota border, government data show. Manitoba classified its flood risk April 10 as “moderate to major,” two days after Saskatchewan predicted above-normal runoff.

While farmers in western Canada rely on melting snow to aid crop growth, a late thaw can mix with spring rains to deliver too much moisture in a short period, leaving soils saturated. Snowpack last month along the Saskatchewan and North Dakota portions of the Souris River, which feeds the Red River Valley, was as much as twice the average, Manitoba said this week. The government was anticipating normal weather on March 18 when it predicted a record-large wheat harvest in 2013.

“We normally plant in April, but now we’re a month behind,” Will Bergmann, 30, said by telephone from Glenlea, Manitoba, where he grows wheat, canola, oats and corn less than half a mile from the Red River. As of yesterday, there was still a foot (30 centimeters) of snow on his fields. “It’s a waiting game now to see if the river overflows from the excess ice, if more snow falls, and how fast the snow melts.”

Thick Ice

The cold spell has left major rivers and tributaries in Manitoba, which accounted for 14 percent of Canada’s wheat crop last year, with a thick ice cover and below-normal flows this month, the province’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre said in its April 10 report. The melt may not begin until April 17, increasing the chance of aggravated overland flooding and tributary flows, it said.

In Saskatchewan, the top Canadian wheat grower at 47 percent of total output, the government said April 8 that the highest flood risk was from Moose Jaw east to Indian Head and then south to Weyburn, and from Saskatoon to North Battleford. During the past six months, the area from Moose Jaw to Regina had as much as 120 millimeters (4.7 inches) more precipitation than normal, or twice the average, according to data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, a government agency.

“With the increased snow cover and late melt, I urge all people and communities to look at the forecast and prepare for flooding,” Ken Cheveldayoff, the province’s minister responsible for the Water Security Agency, said in a statement.

Less Growth

Snow depths with the equivalent of as much as 7 inches of moisture may delay spring planting from Minnesota to Canada this year, Mike Tannura, a meteorologist and owner of T-Storm Weather LLC, said by telephone from Chicago. With the snow lingering, Canadian farmers may have a shorter time for optimal early planting, raising the risk of crop damage later in the season, he said.

“If you plant it too late, you can get hit by heat at the wrong time of year, or you can get hit by a cold wave early in the season,” Tannura said. “The earlier you plant, the less probable those things are.”

While wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are up 6.6 percent from a nine-month low on April 1, closing yesterday at $7.0325 a bushel, prices still are down 25 percent from last year’s closing peak in July. The grain may start to rally if farmers aren’t planting by mid-June, Manitoba’s cut-off to qualify for full crop insurance, said Jerry Klassen, a manager at GAP SA Grains & Products in Winnipeg.

Crop Outlook

The Canadian government on March 19 predicted a record harvest of 28.4 million metric tons, up from 27.205 million a year earlier, mostly because farmers were expected to boost plantings by 5.8 percent.

The forecast was based on “very limited weather-related information,” Fred Oleson, the chief of the grain- and oilseeds-market analysis group of Agriculture Canada, wrote in an April 5 e-mail. “In Western Canada, the large amount of snow we have had this winter and the late spring melt has created a lot of uncertainty regarding seeding.”

The government won’t revise its estimates on 2013 seeding until Statistics Canada releases its survey results of farmers’ planting intentions on April 24, Oleson said.

U.S. Output

Excessive snow and cold weather is increasing the chance of planting delays in some U.S. states bordering Canada, according to DTN.

Spring-wheat crops may be sown later in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota, where snow was as heavy as many parts of Manitoba, said DTN’s Bryce Anderson, who correctly predicted in January that drought in parts of the U.S. will persist through spring. The three states are the largest spring-wheat growers, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Farmers in North Dakota are forecast to plant 6.2 million acres of spring wheat this season, with 2.9 million acres in Montana and 1.35 million in Minnesota, the USDA said. Ice on the upper Mississippi River in Minnesota already has delayed the start of barge traffic until April 8, three weeks late, the USDA said yesterday in a report. The U.S. is the world’s largest wheat exporter.

As recently as 2011, flooding in Manitoba was so extensive that farmer Bergmann was able to kite surf across his fields, which were covered with 5 feet of water. In 1997, during a flood that forced 28,000 to evacuate the province, Bergmann said 99 percent of his land was underwater.

“We’re right along the Red River, so we would be the first farm to experience a flood,” he said. “Anything can happen.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Katia Dmitrieva in New York at edmitrieva1@bloomberg.net; Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net
Quoting Jedkins01:


the genesis of the low is not tropical, but that of baroclinic processes. Otherwise the model wouldn't be generating a low pressure system. Keep in mind, just because forming in a tropical region is not an automatic sign to put the tropical cyclone flag up.

Florida historically is impacted by quite a few gulf including southern gulf generated low pressure systems that are of extra-tropical origin. This output by them model may seems suspicious due to the lack of gulf lows so far this spring. However, remember that much of the peninsula is in a drought, some of which can be attributed to no real gulf lows this spring.

During El Nino years, gulf lows are generated frequently in the spring, and often are quite potent, none of which have any tropical origin.


True but Im speaking from personal experience as of last year during hurricane season when I was posting a certain model run and got shot down about a potential low not being tropical and it ended up being an invest..I have seen it happen and the NHC labels it..not saying it will happen this time just pointing out that because long range model runs says its not tropical in long range doesent mean it wont change..of course, the models have dropped it now..
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Also non-tropical. My first flag was that low's huge vorticity field. Tropical lows are much tighter and more compact. I also traced the low's origins using the 500 mb chart overlaid with the surface analysis, which distinctly shows that that low is merely the surface reflection of a mid-latitude cutoff.





And as you showed with your GFS forecast, the feature is a pretty common one among the model forecasts, so we also have the opportunity to look at it using the GFS phase diagrams.



Clearly, not tropical or even subtropical.


1900..you are killing me over here..crushing me left and right..:)..but..I'll wait and see what happens
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Raise the Bismarck!


There is going to be some major flooding across the Upper midwest as there has been lots of snow across the Dakota's this past Winter.
896. VR46L
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Since it's Monday, and Tax Day...why not?

"The Economist and other journalism icons are beginning to reassess their position on global warming."

Link


You are gonna get them mad !!! LOL
I see that Scott. Very high water content in the snow pack in the Red River Valley.

At least no drought though!
Get a load of this storm report in Bismarck—astounding!
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
731 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW BISMARCK 46.81N 100.78W
04/15/2013 M23.5 INCH BURLEIGH ND TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTH 12TH STREET IN NORTH BISMARCK
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The April ECMWF MSLP update is out and show higher pressures in the Atlantic than in the March update.

March Operational July,August,September update:



March Ensemble mean update:



April Operational August,September,October update:



April Ensemble mean for August,September,October update

So is showing less activity hmm
Quoting Gearsts:
So is showing less activity hmm


I would like to know what Levi thinks about this. I think is early to throw the towel on an active North Atlantic season.
Quoting ncstorm:


True but Im speaking from personal experience as of last year during hurricane season when I was posting a certain model run and got shot down about a potential low not being tropical and it ended up being an invest..I have seen it happen and the NHC labels it..not saying it will happen this time just pointing out that because long range model runs says its not tropical in long range doesent mean it wont change..of course, the models have dropped it now..

Being labeled an invest honestly has nothing to do with the low's structure and characteristics. Most invests are tropical waves/disturbances, which makes sense because that what accounts for the vast majority of tropical cyclones, but a baroclinic cyclone can also be labeled an invest if the NHC thinks it's plausible that the low can start to sustain itself with barotropic processes, which requires it to be in a favorable atmospheric region and over warm enough waters at the time or in the near future. Invest is merely an umbrella term for anything that has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Now as it looks in the 00Z analysis, it looks quite unlikely that that vort max will be classified as an invest for a couple of reasons. For one, it lies right in the center of a subtropical jet streak, which is putting massive amounts of horizontal wind shear over it. With it as caught up in the hostile westerly flow as it is, there is very little potential for barotropic processes to sustain itself let alone develop. The other great detriment is that the sea surface temperatures in the potential area of interest are too low for typical tropical activity.

However, with this a 192 hour forecast, there is a whole world of possibility between now and then. Though quite unlikely, conditions may become much more favorable by the time the event occurs (or on the other end of the spectrum, it may not occur entirely). At this point though, we really can't tell. Who knows, maybe eight days out, the NHC will declare 90L as our first invest of the year.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:RE: Post#892
Good morning/afternoon/evening to all!

Reading the blog yesterday, someone asked the question about flooding in North Dakota/Manitoba/Saskatchewan. I apologize for the length of the article but there's some interesting info in it:


Thanks so much for that enlightening post VirginIslandsVisitor..
Very much worth the read..
Quoting ncstorm:


1900..you are killing me over here..crushing me left and right..:)..but..I'll wait and see what happens
Yes we are all desperate but we are just gonna have to wait until conditions previel for a tropical entity to form in the Atlantic.I think we might have a invest in May but I don't think we'll see a storm.I think June is a better fit.This season reminds me(from the conditions I'm seeing in the Atlantic now) of a classic hurricane season.First storm forms in June and then we have activity until November.That's how I'm seeing it.I could be wrong of course.Last year was ahead of schedule thanks to a warm winter and hot spring.So hurricane season jumped a month ahead.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I would like to know what Levi thinks about this. I think is early to throw the towel on an active North Atlantic season.
Yep i'm gonna stalked his twitter today lol.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Since it's Monday, and Tax Day...why not?

"The Economist and other journalism icons are beginning to reassess their position on global warming."

Link


If you don't mind, I will rely on climatologists to provide my climate science, not economists. Not only that... there really is scientific consensus.

Link

Just as you wouldn't ask your lawyer to deliver your new baby, you probably wouldn't ask an economist about climate :)

edit... or more correctly, you wouldn't ask a journalist, either.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I would like to know what Levi thinks about this. I think is early to throw the towel on an active North Atlantic season.
Usually when this occurs we get something like last year.Storms forming/finding better conditions in the sub-tropics.With smaller storms in the tropics.Usually in a higher pressure environment smaller storms form vs in a lower pressure environment we get bigger storms.

I'm talking about size not strength in case anyone is confused.
Quoting goosegirl1:


If you don't mind, I will rely on climatologists to provide my climate science, not economists. Not only that... there really is scientific consensus.

Link

Just as you wouldn't ask your lawyer to deliver your new baby, you probably wouldn't ask an economist about climate :)


I simply found it interesting that economists would even comment on the subject. There's no such thing as bad information...
warm and sunny here now,looks to be a nice day..
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Being labeled an invest honestly has nothing to do with the low's structure and characteristics. Most invests are tropical waves/disturbances, which makes sense because that what accounts for the vast majority of tropical cyclones, but a baroclinic cyclone can also be labeled an invest if the NHC thinks it's plausible that the low can start to sustain itself with barotropic processes, which requires it to be in a favorable atmospheric region and over warm enough waters at the time or in the near future. Invest is merely an umbrella term for anything that has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Now as it looks in the 00Z analysis, it looks quite unlikely that that vort max will be classified as an invest for a couple of reasons. For one, it lies right in the center of a subtropical jet streak, which is putting massive amounts of horizontal wind shear over it. With it as caught up in the hostile westerly flow as it is, there is very little potential for barotropic processes to sustain itself let alone develop. The other great detriment is that the sea surface temperatures in the potential area of interest are too low for typical tropical activity.

However, with this a 192 hour forecast, there is a whole world of possibility between now and then. Though quite unlikely, conditions may become much more favorable by the time the event occurs (or on the other end of the spectrum, it may not occur entirely). At this point though, we really can't tell. Who knows, maybe eight days out, the NHC will declare 90L as our first invest of the year.
If the NHC labels this an invest then they will be cruley teasing us.
Quoting Gearsts:
Yep i'm gonna stalked his twitter today lol.


I hope he sees my post #882 and replies wherever he chooses.
Quoting NttyGrtty:


I simply found it interesting that economists would even comment on the subject. There's no such thing as bad information...


Maybe not "bad", but there is "incorrect". The goal of any science is to strive to get closer to the correct answer to whatever question you wish to ask, so if you want the best information from the most qualified source, ask the experts.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I think the drought is about over in many places across E C FL. Melbourne picked up 3.79", Sanford 2.29", Daytona Beach 1.03", Orlando Executive Airport 1.40", Orlando International .79.



It's definitely not over, those amounts are not enough to cover the drought, many places across Florida have had large deficits, quite a bit larger than that. It's certainly a good help, but many other places in Florida are terribly dry still, and like I said, even those areas aren't without drought yet. Although 3 inches of rain is certainly enough to help short term drought issues.
It's a beautiful morning, I think I'll go outside for awhile..and smile..
Quoting ncstorm:


True but Im speaking from personal experience as of last year during hurricane season when I was posting a certain model run and got shot down about a potential low not being tropical and it ended up being an invest..I have seen it happen and the NHC labels it..not saying it will happen this time just pointing out that because long range model runs says its not tropical in long range doesent mean it wont change..of course, the models have dropped it now..


Ok I see what your saying, yeah that is definitely true. I was just responding to a premise that models showing a low initiating in the south gulf in April mean its probably tropical when in most cased they aren't.

What you said is true though, we are approaching the hurricane season and you can't rule out a low that develops in the tropics even if its initiation isn't tropical at first or depicted as tropical.
Looking forward to the cool air coming to south central Texas again this week.....
we now have winter storm Yogi we olny have one more name winter storm to go

i this noted this on the day 3 out look







DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NWRN TX INTO CNTRL IL...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY...

...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE SYNOPTIC POSITIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE AT 18/00Z FROM
SERN NEB ACROSS NWRN KS INTO SERN CO. LATEST THINKING IS THE NAM
MAY BE MORE ACCURATE DEPICTING AN EARLY FRONTAL SURGE THAT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY1-2 TIME FRAME BEFORE
SLOWLY RETREATING INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO THE GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE BODY OF OK
WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE...WHILE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD 50KT+ LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS OK/KS.
SCATTERED ELEVATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS KS INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NWRN MO. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN KS/NWRN OK WHICH WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG HEATING WILL SHARPEN A DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...SSWWD INTO WEST TX. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FROM OK NEWD INTO MO. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SRN MOST STALLED BOUNDARY WILL POSE THE
GREATEST RISK OF MAINTAINING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WILL
FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS A SECONDARY STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL ENCOURAGE
A FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
PROPAGATE SEWD. BY EARLY THURSDAY AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED FROM NRN IL...SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NWRN TX.
Quoting goosegirl1:


Maybe not "bad", but there is "incorrect". The goal of any science is to strive to get closer to the correct answer to whatever question you wish to ask, so if you want the best information from the most qualified source, ask the experts.


Feel free to ignore it then. I simply found it interesting and neither made nor make any judgement as to it's "correctness"...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It's a beautiful morning, I think I'll go outside for awhile..and smile..

same here...

good morning everyone
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

same here...

good morning everyone



check out commet 916/917
I hate to do this.But please help this little girl in Palm Harbor that was involved in a terrible accident with a lawn mower accident. This poor little girl lost both feet and the family needs help. This is in the St. Petersburg Florida area... I'm not good at posting sites so maybe Largo and Jenkins can help me... So very sad.
Quoting Tazmanian:
we now have winter storm Yogi we olny have one more name winter storm to go


How can it be a Winter Storm Yogi when it's no longer winter. TWC is a joke.
Quoting Tazmanian:



check out commet 916/917


yes... I saw them
some severe weather
I expected Yogi to be named soon... thanks Taz
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes... I saw them
some severe weather
I expected Yogi to be named soon... thanks Taz



your late we all ready have Yogi
This is data courtesy of Patrick Marsh with the SPC:

* Every Day 3 Moderate Risk has remained a Day 2 Moderate Risk or was upgraded to a Day 2 High Risk.
--> Means no Day 3 Moderate Risk has ever been overforecast.

* Every Day 3 Moderate Risk remained a Day 1 Moderate or High Risk.

* 30% of 10 Day 3 Moderate Risks were upgraded to a Day 1 High Risk.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It's a beautiful morning, I think I'll go outside for awhile..and smile..

Just had a storm pass through Sydney. I went for my first storm chase and caught some ok lightning video. Youtube says it'll be another 15mins till its ready. Once it's finished uploading to youtube I'll post the video.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just had a storm pass through Sydney. I went for my first storm chase and caught some ok lightning video. Youtube says it'll be another 15mins till its ready. Once it's finished uploading to youtube I'll post the video.
Aussie...Just no Kim Kardashian vids....
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Aussie...Just no Kim Kardashian vids....

Who????
Quoting AussieStorm:

Who is that?
Nobody in my opinion
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Nobody in my opinion


LOL....
931. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:

Who is that?


Serious ???

If you are being serious you are lucky!!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Who????


Oh, everyone has me laughing so hard over here! Aussie must be the only one in the world (or at least this blog) who doesn't know who the Kardashians are!

Just got back from a funeral. Thanks for putting a smile on my face!

Lindy
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Aussie...Just no Kim Kardashian vids....
When I come here I come to escape the names of those people :).I hear "them" every day on the radio and the news get more money to act stupid and excus my language slu**y.I don't like it when "they"'are brought up.Especially on a weather blog."their" names are banned in my house.I don't see how the young people can look up to such trash and call it their idol.I'm not angry at you Palmbeachweather.Just don't like when "they" brought up.And no I'm not a hater.

So they are a who's who to me.
Bismarck, ND

THE RECORD FOR THE MOST SNOW ON ANY DAY OF THE YEAR IN BISMARCK WAS 15.5 INCHES ON MARCH 3...1966.
IT IS NOW...17.3 INCHES.

more much snow heading your way...this could eventually lead to major flooding
Quoting washingtonian115:
When I come here I come to escape the names of those people :).I hear "them" every day on the radio and the news get more money to act stupid and excus my language slu**y.I don't like it when "they"'are brought up.Especially on a weather blog."their" names are banned in my house.I don't see how the young people can look up to such trash and call it their idol.I'm not angry at you Palmbeachweather.Just don't like when "they" brought up.And no I'm not a hater.

So they are a who's who to me.
Wash.... Sorry I pissed you off.I will never ever mention Paris Hilton either,
See todays CPC ENSO update at my ENSO blog
Quoting VR46L:


Serious ???

If you are being serious you are lucky!!

Sorry I don't watch trash tv or read trash magazines.
BITING MY TONGUE
My new Video. Enjoy, like and share.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Wash.... Sorry I pissed you off.I will never ever mention Paris Hilton either,
Oh no I'm not mad at you.I'm still glad their are people in the world who are not brain washed with the filth that is out here.Still gives me hope for the human race.
My goodness... Sorry I brought up a sore subject Wash. Only one thing to say...Lindsay Lohan... Grow up
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is data courtesy of Patrick Marsh with the SPC:

* Every Day 3 Moderate Risk has remained a Day 2 Moderate Risk or was upgraded to a Day 2 High Risk.
--> Means no Day 3 Moderate Risk has ever been overforecast.

* Every Day 3 Moderate Risk remained a Day 1 Moderate or High Risk.

* 30% of all Day 3 Moderate Risks (10 total) were upgraded to a Day 1 High Risk.

I'd be careful with the overforecasted term, since a couple of the days were given moderate or high risks on the day of the event and ended up busting. Here is the list of Day 3 Moderate risks issued, and here are some of the busts.



June 10th, 2005



April 24th, 2007 (perhaps the worst bust of them all)



June 7th, 2007 (not a complete bust, but pretty bad considering the risk size and placement)



April 10th, 2008



April 10th, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is data courtesy of Patrick Marsh with the SPC:

* Every Day 3 Moderate Risk has remained a Day 2 Moderate Risk or was upgraded to a Day 2 High Risk.
--> Means no Day 3 Moderate Risk has ever been overforecast.

That's not necessarily correct, that just means that the SPC has maintained forecast consistency for subsequent issuances. To do a fair comparison, you need to look at actual storm reports for the day forecasted.
Quoting AussieStorm:
My new Video. Enjoy, like and share.



Very nice Aussie..
Good lightening shots..
Like the music too..
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
See todays CPC ENSO update at my ENSO blog



they dont have too go too your blog they can this go too this site

Link
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
My goodness... Sorry I brought up a sore subject Wash. Only one thing to say...Lindsay Lohan... Grow up
Now not sure if you are being sarcastic and playing mind games because I have stated two times that I was not mad at you and have moved on from the subject by stating I still have faith in the human race.

So what are you doing?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now not sure if you are being sarcastic and playing mind games because I have stated two times that I was not mad at you and have moved on from the subject by stating I still have faith in the human race.

So what are you doing?
How about a rain check..We'll just stick to dinner